{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Forest", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261031", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.104, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.104, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0666, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Brentford", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2427, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1151 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.104 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0966 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0887 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0666 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0629, "0-1": 0.0666, "0-2": 0.0368, "0-3": 0.0133, "0-4": 0.0036, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.104, "1-1": 0.1151, "1-2": 0.0622, "1-3": 0.0226, "1-4": 0.0061, "1-5": 0.0013, "2-0": 0.0887, "2-1": 0.0966, "2-2": 0.0526, "2-3": 0.0191, "2-4": 0.0052, "2-5": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.05, "3-1": 0.0545, "3-2": 0.0297, "3-3": 0.0108, "3-4": 0.0029, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0212, "4-1": 0.023, "4-2": 0.0126, "4-3": 0.0046, "4-4": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0072, "5-1": 0.0078, "5-2": 0.0042, "5-3": 0.0015, "6-0": 0.002, "6-1": 0.0022, "6-2": 0.0012, "7-1": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5138, "draw": 0.2427, "away_win": 0.2435 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.526, "under_2_5_goals": 0.474, "btts_yes": 0.5422, "btts_no": 0.4578, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3366, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1842 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.95, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 6.92 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.82, "MCR": 6.95, "ATR": 6.85, "GK": 6.99 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Brentford vs Forest. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Brentford 4W-3D-3L vs Forest over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kevin Schade", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mamadou Sangare vs Morgan Gibbs-White will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.91, Away: 0.96. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle." }, "confidence": 0.75, "home_lambda": 1.692, "away_lambda": 1.089, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 1.0071, "away_multiplier": 0.9929 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1151, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5138, "draw": 0.2427, "away_win": 0.2435 }, "favorite": "Brentford", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5138, "fair_spread": 0.603, "fair_total": 2.781, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.692, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.089, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5422, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3366, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1842, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Igor Thiago (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.3879, "probability": 0.3215, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Liam Delap (Forest)", "estimate": 0.2696, "probability": 0.2363, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mathias Jensen (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.2028, "probability": 0.1836, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Morgan Gibbs-White (Forest)", "estimate": 0.1588, "probability": 0.1468, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.781, "expected_total_shots": 32, "expected_total_passes": 827, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.8, "possession_home_pct": 50.2, "possession_away_pct": 49.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Brentford", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5138, "script": "Brentford is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.60 goals and fair total 2.78.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Forest must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Brentford lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Forest chance creation leans on Liam Delap against Vitaly Janelt, Kristoffer Ajer in Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Brentford: starters carry the main goal usage through Kevin Schade; bench watchlist: Yehor Yarmoliuk, Jaidon Anthony, Reiss Nelson.", "Forest: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Ousmane Diomande, Dan Ndoye, Omari Hutchinson.", "Assist usage should flow through Igor Thiago; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Brentford tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Forest is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Brentford.", "Forest wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Brentford": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Dango Ouattara": { "player_id": 1106451, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 177, "market_value": 36000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.26, "goal_rate": 0.2354, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1242, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8765, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 14.1693, "dispossessed": 0.8078, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0648, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.374, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 80, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9173, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jair, Nikola Milenković", "opponent_faced": "Jair, Nikola Milenković", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2289, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1168, "finishing_factor": 1.0443, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363896, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9005, "expected_assists": 0.3674, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363882, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363872, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.068, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363649, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": 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"source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dango Ouattara", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rasmus Højlund", "ranking": 1639 }, { "player_name": "Sabit James Ngor", "ranking": 1640 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Beier", "ranking": 1641 }, { "player_name": "Chris Wood", "ranking": 1642 }, { "player_name": "Andrew Robertson", "ranking": 1643 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aziz Kholmurodov", "ranking": 1645 }, { "player_name": "Uroš Kojić", "ranking": 1646 }, { "player_name": "Josh Risdon", "ranking": 1647 }, { "player_name": "Georges Mikautadze", "ranking": 1648 }, { "player_name": "Trai Hume", "ranking": 1649 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.761, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.502)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4928, "expected_assists": 0.1559, "assists": 0.1058, "assist_rate": 0.1058, "expected_goals": 0.0695, "goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.3453, "total_shots": 1.0155, "rating": 6.968, "minutes": 78.71, "total_pass": 38.8306, "accurate_pass": 31.6464, "duels_won": 3.0665, "total_long_balls": 6.4357, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5488, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.6189, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.6479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0275, "crosses_total": 4.651, "crosses_accurate": 1.375, "touches": 56.2729, "possession_lost": 14.2294, "dispossessed": 0.9956, "duels_lost": 5.2906, "aerial_won": 0.1738, "aerial_lost": 0.9824, "interceptions": 0.7927, "tackles_won": 0.5993, "tackles": 1.4053, "clearances": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0102, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3111, "goals": 0.3752, "goal_rate": 0.3752, "shots_on_target": 0.7535, "total_shots": 2.1824, "expected_assists": 0.0466, "key_pass": 0.6184, "rating": 6.7549, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 15.7498, "accurate_pass": 10.6714, "duels_won": 5.1966, "total_long_balls": 0.6856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2298, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2114, "crosses_total": 0.3147, "crosses_accurate": 0.1049, "touches": 33.4323, "possession_lost": 13.0142, "dispossessed": 1.5999, "duels_lost": 6.7233, "aerial_lost": 1.9715, "total_contest": 2.6077, "won_contest": 0.6029, "ball_recovery": 3.3338, "challenges_lost": 0.2509, "fouls": 0.9493, "fouls_drawn": 0.9059, "assists": 0.0117, "assist_rate": 0.0117, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.8686, "tackles": 1.2731, "clearances": 0.864, "blocks": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.025, "big_chances_missed": 0.3105, "xgot": 0.2101, "offsides": 0.2202, "ball_carries": 7.625, "total_progression": 30.6091, "progressive_carries": 1.1466, "shots_off_target": 1.4288 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0102, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3111, "goals": 0.3757, "goal_rate": 0.3757, "shots_on_target": 0.7587, "total_shots": 2.1947, "expected_assists": 0.0466, "key_pass": 0.6184, "rating": 6.7549, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 15.7498, "accurate_pass": 10.6714, "duels_won": 5.1966, "total_long_balls": 0.6856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2298, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2114, "crosses_total": 0.3119, "crosses_accurate": 0.1049, "touches": 33.4323, "possession_lost": 13.0142, "dispossessed": 1.5999, "duels_lost": 6.7233, "aerial_lost": 1.9715, "total_contest": 2.6077, "won_contest": 0.6029, "ball_recovery": 3.3338, "challenges_lost": 0.2509, "fouls": 0.9447, "fouls_drawn": 0.9135, "assists": 0.0116, "assist_rate": 0.0116, "interceptions": 0.0795, "tackles_won": 0.8804, "tackles": 1.2731, "clearances": 0.864, "blocks": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.025, "big_chances_missed": 0.3105, "xgot": 0.2101, "offsides": 0.2182, "ball_carries": 7.625, "total_progression": 30.6091, "progressive_carries": 1.1466, "shots_off_target": 1.4288 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8719, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1824, "after": 2.1947 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8686, "after": 0.8804 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9059, "after": 0.9135 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7535, "after": 0.7587 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3111, "goals": 0.3757, "goal_rate": 0.3757, "shots_on_target": 0.7587, "total_shots": 2.1947, "expected_assists": 0.0466, "key_pass": 0.6184, "rating": 6.7549, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 15.7498, "accurate_pass": 10.6714, "duels_won": 5.1966, "total_long_balls": 0.6856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2298, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2114, "crosses_total": 0.3119, "crosses_accurate": 0.1049, "touches": 33.4323, "possession_lost": 13.0142, "dispossessed": 1.5999, "duels_lost": 6.7233, "aerial_lost": 1.9715, "total_contest": 2.6077, "won_contest": 0.6029, "ball_recovery": 3.3338, "challenges_lost": 0.2509, "fouls": 0.9447, "fouls_drawn": 0.9135, "assists": 0.0116, 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"antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jair, Nikola Milenković", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.182, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9742, "skill_edge": 0.0365, "height_edge": -0.054, "attacker_skill": 0.8309, "defender_skill": 0.7498, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jair", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7498 }, { "player": "Nikola Milenković", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7498 } ], "xg_override": 0.3031 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1947, "after": 2.1381 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4288, "after": 1.3919 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7587, "after": 0.7391 }, { "stat": 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0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.4531, xG scale 1.1644, xA scale 1.3015, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3529, "goal_rate": 0.366, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7391, "total_shots": 2.1381, "expected_assists": 0.0607, "key_pass": 0.6184, "rating": 6.7549, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 15.7498, "accurate_pass": 10.6714, "duels_won": 5.1966, "total_long_balls": 0.6856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2298, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2114, "crosses_total": 0.3119, "crosses_accurate": 0.1049, "touches": 33.4323, "possession_lost": 13.0142, "dispossessed": 1.5999, "duels_lost": 6.7233, "aerial_lost": 1.9715, "total_contest": 2.6077, "won_contest": 0.6029, "ball_recovery": 3.3338, "challenges_lost": 0.2509, "fouls": 0.9447, "fouls_drawn": 0.9135, "assist_rate": 0.0116, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0795, "tackles_won": 0.8804, "tackles": 1.2731, "clearances": 0.864, "blocks": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.025, "big_chances_missed": 0.3025, "xgot": 0.2384, "offsides": 0.2182, "ball_carries": 7.625, "total_progression": 30.6091, "progressive_carries": 1.1466, "shots_off_target": 1.3919, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9742, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.182, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jair, Nikola Milenković", "opponent_faced": "Jair, Nikola Milenković", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1781, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.692, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4531, "squad_xa_sum": 0.845, "team_expected_assists": 1.0998, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1644, "xa_scale": 1.3015, "opponent_lambda": 1.089, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3031, "after": 0.3529 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0466, "after": 0.0607 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3529, "goal_rate": 0.366, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7391, "total_shots": 2.1381, "expected_assists": 0.0607, "key_pass": 0.6184, "rating": 6.7549, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 15.7498, "accurate_pass": 10.6714, "duels_won": 5.1966, "total_long_balls": 0.6856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2298, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2114, "crosses_total": 0.3119, "crosses_accurate": 0.1049, "touches": 33.4323, "possession_lost": 13.0142, "dispossessed": 1.5999, "duels_lost": 6.7233, "aerial_lost": 1.9715, "total_contest": 2.6077, "won_contest": 0.6029, "ball_recovery": 3.3338, "challenges_lost": 0.2509, "fouls": 0.9447, "fouls_drawn": 0.9135, "assist_rate": 0.0116, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0795, "tackles_won": 0.8804, "tackles": 1.2731, "clearances": 0.864, "blocks": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.025, "big_chances_missed": 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884.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3529, "goal_rate": 0.366, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.7391, "total_shots": 2.1381, "expected_assists": 0.0607, "key_pass": 0.6184, "rating": 6.7549, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 15.7498, "accurate_pass": 10.6714, "duels_won": 5.1966, "total_long_balls": 0.6856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2298, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2114, "crosses_total": 0.3119, "crosses_accurate": 0.1049, "touches": 33.4323, "possession_lost": 13.0142, "dispossessed": 1.5999, "duels_lost": 6.7233, "aerial_lost": 1.9715, "total_contest": 2.6077, "won_contest": 0.6029, "ball_recovery": 3.3338, "challenges_lost": 0.2509, "fouls": 0.9447, "fouls_drawn": 0.9135, "assist_rate": 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0.1017, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.176849 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.135284 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.114183 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.070053 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.052489 } ], "others_margin": 0.148295 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8956189751625061, "model_output": 0.8956, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1805 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0487 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0107, quality 0.868)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3185, "goals": 0.3071, "goal_rate": 0.3071, "shots_on_target": 0.636, "total_shots": 2.0827, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "key_pass": 0.9052, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 20.17, "accurate_pass": 13.451, "duels_won": 6.1386, "total_long_balls": 0.9024, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2897, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0959, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7331, "crosses_total": 0.8966, "crosses_accurate": 0.1629, "touches": 37.8522, "possession_lost": 13.9408, "dispossessed": 1.0403, "duels_lost": 10.6933, "aerial_lost": 5.6477, "total_contest": 2.0295, "won_contest": 0.5646, "ball_recovery": 2.7684, "challenges_lost": 0.5282, "fouls": 2.0748, "fouls_drawn": 0.5931, "assists": 0.2823, "assist_rate": 0.2823, "interceptions": 0.2324, 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1.1371, "clearances": 1.275, "blocks": 0.5133, "big_chances_created": 0.3277, "big_chances_missed": 0.6065, "xgot": 0.2239, "offsides": 0.5445, "ball_carries": 7.8609, "total_progression": 7.9671, "progressive_carries": 1.0115, "shots_off_target": 1.4467 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.333, "goals": 0.3185, "goal_rate": 0.3185, "shots_on_target": 0.6685, "total_shots": 2.1907, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "key_pass": 0.9052, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 20.17, "accurate_pass": 13.451, "duels_won": 6.1386, "total_long_balls": 0.9024, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2897, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0959, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7331, "crosses_total": 0.8978, "crosses_accurate": 0.1629, "touches": 37.8522, "possession_lost": 13.9408, "dispossessed": 1.0403, "duels_lost": 10.6933, "aerial_lost": 5.6477, "total_contest": 2.0295, "won_contest": 0.5646, "ball_recovery": 2.7684, "challenges_lost": 0.5282, "fouls": 2.0623, "fouls_drawn": 0.5883, "assists": 0.28, "assist_rate": 0.28, "interceptions": 0.2305, "tackles_won": 0.6539, "tackles": 1.1371, "clearances": 1.275, "blocks": 0.5133, "big_chances_created": 0.3277, "big_chances_missed": 0.6342, "xgot": 0.2341, "offsides": 0.5445, "ball_carries": 7.8609, "total_progression": 7.9671, "progressive_carries": 1.0115, "shots_off_target": 1.5127, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0456, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jair, Nikola Milenković", "opponent_faced": "Jair, Nikola Milenković", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jair, Nikola Milenković", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0456, "skill_edge": 0.053, "height_edge": -0.022, "attacker_skill": 0.8677, "defender_skill": 0.7498, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jair", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7498 }, { "player": "Nikola Milenković", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7498 } ], "xg_override": 0.333 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0952, "after": 2.1907 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4467, "after": 1.5127 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6393, "after": 0.6685 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.6065, "after": 0.6342 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", 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"team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.4531, xG scale 1.1644, xA scale 1.3015, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3879, "goal_rate": 0.3185, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6685, "total_shots": 2.1907, "expected_assists": 0.1337, "key_pass": 0.9052, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 20.17, "accurate_pass": 13.451, "duels_won": 6.1386, "total_long_balls": 0.9024, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2897, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0959, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7331, "crosses_total": 0.8978, "crosses_accurate": 0.1629, "touches": 37.8522, "possession_lost": 13.9408, "dispossessed": 1.0403, "duels_lost": 10.6933, "aerial_lost": 5.6477, "total_contest": 2.0295, "won_contest": 0.5646, "ball_recovery": 2.7684, "challenges_lost": 0.5282, "fouls": 2.0623, "fouls_drawn": 0.5883, "assist_rate": 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{ "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.053384 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.036173 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.017778 } ], "others_margin": -0.104042 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.930174827575684, "model_output": 6.9302, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0815 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0337 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.046, "total": 6.9302, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { 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"duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], 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"contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0049 } ], "others": -0.0168, "total": 0.0547, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.395469, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140077 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.128392 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.116142 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.07201 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.066095 } ], "others_margin": -0.267477 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05749158188700676, "model_output": 0.0575, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0655 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0947, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0052 } ], "others": -0.0175, "total": 0.0575, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.357331, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.180655 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.174808 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113925 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.07511 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.067189 } ], "others_margin": -0.26517 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.17721831798553467, "model_output": 0.1772, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.071 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0155 } ], "others": -0.0286, "total": 0.1772, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.253029 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.143398 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.135299 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.116972 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.072647 } ], "others_margin": -0.149093 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6900982856750488, "model_output": 0.6901, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2473 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.118 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0298 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0296 } ], "others": -0.1162, "total": 0.6901, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.247254 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117954 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045919 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.029829 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029555 } ], "others_margin": -0.116137 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.936805725097656, "model_output": 6.9368, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0705 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], "others": 0.0127, "total": 6.9368, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.070485 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.039539 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016901 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012766 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.012197 } ], "others_margin": 0.012638 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0364, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6307, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.054, "expected_goals": 0.0567, "goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.0596, "shots_on_target": 0.1837, "total_shots": 0.7153, "rating": 6.9368, "minutes": 81.19, "total_pass": 51.4028, "accurate_pass": 42.357, "duels_won": 7.9182, "total_long_balls": 5.4895, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4112, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6701, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6869, "crosses_total": 0.3174, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6611, "possession_lost": 13.3079, "dispossessed": 1.5489, "duels_lost": 5.0697, "aerial_won": 1.2056, "aerial_lost": 0.5451, "interceptions": 1.5675, "tackles_won": 1.9883, "tackles": 4.2821, "clearances": 1.5393, "total_contest": 2.346, "won_contest": 1.791, "challenges_lost": 0.8507, "fouls": 1.5699, "fouls_drawn": 0.6396, "blocks": 0.451, "big_chances_created": 0.1459, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0262, "ball_carries": 15.6047, "total_progression": 56.9681, "progressive_carries": 0.7925, "shots_off_target": 0.5316 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 49000000, "quality_factor": 0.8206, "boost_factor": 1.0364, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0300)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6307, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assists": 0.0674, "assist_rate": 0.0674, "expected_goals": 0.0567, "goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.0578, "shots_on_target": 0.1931, "total_shots": 0.7528, "rating": 6.9368, "minutes": 81.19, "total_pass": 51.4028, "accurate_pass": 42.357, "duels_won": 7.9182, "total_long_balls": 5.4895, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4112, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6701, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6869, "crosses_total": 0.3379, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6611, "possession_lost": 13.3079, "dispossessed": 1.5489, "duels_lost": 5.0697, "aerial_won": 1.2056, "aerial_lost": 0.5451, "interceptions": 1.6107, "tackles_won": 1.9738, "tackles": 4.2821, "clearances": 1.5393, "total_contest": 2.346, "won_contest": 1.791, "challenges_lost": 0.8507, "fouls": 1.5679, "fouls_drawn": 0.6655, "blocks": 0.451, "big_chances_created": 0.1459, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0262, "ball_carries": 15.6047, "total_progression": 56.9681, "progressive_carries": 0.7925, "shots_off_target": 0.5316 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.03, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9021, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 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"lower": [ { "player_name": "José Copete", "ranking": 2102 }, { "player_name": "Diego Moreira", "ranking": 2103 }, { "player_name": "Chris Long", "ranking": 2104 }, { "player_name": "Richard Ríos", "ranking": 2105 }, { "player_name": "Abdel Rahim", "ranking": 2106 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", 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"importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.43 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0581 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0289 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0229 } ], "others": 0.0336, "total": 0.9647, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.430042 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058085 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.031085 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.028873 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.022889 } ], "others_margin": 0.03353 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.749508380889893, "model_output": 6.7495, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0254, "total": 6.7495, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.041612 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021118 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016091 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.015818 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010879 } ], "others_margin": -0.025419 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7811, "tackles": 1.34, "tackles_won": 0.8305, "clearances": 2.1514, "aerial_won": 0.5539, "total_shots": 0.9708, "rating": 6.7495, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 27.5382, "accurate_pass": 21.7518, "duels_won": 3.2103, "total_long_balls": 3.9367, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5695, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9577, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.7941, "crosses_total": 3.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.8883, "touches": 46.5935, "possession_lost": 12.3897, "dispossessed": 0.4901, "duels_lost": 4.6997, "aerial_lost": 1.3488, "total_contest": 1.9418, "won_contest": 0.5601, "ball_recovery": 3.6712, "challenges_lost": 0.6395, "fouls": 0.8398, "fouls_drawn": 1.2614, "blocks": 0.1922, "goals": 0.2008, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 14.623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.7941, "crosses_total": 3.2832, "crosses_accurate": 0.8883, "touches": 46.5935, "possession_lost": 12.3897, "dispossessed": 0.4901, "duels_lost": 4.6997, "aerial_lost": 1.3488, "total_contest": 1.9418, "won_contest": 0.5601, "ball_recovery": 3.6712, "challenges_lost": 0.6395, "fouls": 0.8403, "fouls_drawn": 1.2502, "blocks": 0.1922, "goals": 0.203, "goal_rate": 0.203, "assists": 0.0972, "assist_rate": 0.0972, "expected_goals": 0.1253, "expected_assists": 0.0946, "shots_on_target": 0.3512, "big_chances_created": 0.1179, "xgot": 0.1506, "ball_carries": 12.7657, "total_progression": 76.0304, "progressive_carries": 2.5131, "key_pass": 1.0076, "shots_off_target": 0.6205 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8917, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2614, "after": 1.2502 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.2727, "after": 3.2832 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7821, "tackles": 1.34, "tackles_won": 0.831, "clearances": 2.1514, "aerial_won": 0.5539, "total_shots": 0.9743, "rating": 6.7495, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 27.5382, "accurate_pass": 21.7518, "duels_won": 3.2103, "total_long_balls": 3.9367, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5695, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9577, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.7941, "crosses_total": 3.2832, "crosses_accurate": 0.8883, "touches": 46.5935, "possession_lost": 12.3897, "dispossessed": 0.4901, "duels_lost": 4.6997, "aerial_lost": 1.3488, "total_contest": 1.9418, "won_contest": 0.5601, "ball_recovery": 3.6712, "challenges_lost": 0.6395, "fouls": 0.8403, "fouls_drawn": 1.2502, "blocks": 0.1922, "goals": 0.203, 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"crosses_accurate": 0.8883, "touches": 46.5935, "possession_lost": 12.3897, "dispossessed": 0.4901, "duels_lost": 4.6997, "aerial_lost": 1.3488, "total_contest": 1.9418, "won_contest": 0.5601, "ball_recovery": 3.6712, "challenges_lost": 0.6395, "fouls": 0.8403, "fouls_drawn": 1.2502, "blocks": 0.1922, "goals": 0.203, "goal_rate": 0.203, "assists": 0.0972, "assist_rate": 0.0972, "expected_goals": 0.1253, "expected_assists": 0.0946, "shots_on_target": 0.3512, "big_chances_created": 0.1179, "xgot": 0.1506, "ball_carries": 12.7657, "total_progression": 76.0304, "progressive_carries": 2.5131, "key_pass": 1.0076, "shots_off_target": 0.6205, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.653, "opponent_faced": "Xaver Schlager", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Xaver Schlager", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7821, "tackles": 1.34, "tackles_won": 0.831, "clearances": 2.1514, "aerial_won": 0.5539, "total_shots": 0.9743, "rating": 6.7495, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 27.5382, "accurate_pass": 21.7518, "duels_won": 3.2103, "total_long_balls": 3.9367, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5695, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9577, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.7941, "crosses_total": 3.2832, "crosses_accurate": 0.8883, "touches": 46.5935, "possession_lost": 12.3897, "dispossessed": 0.4901, "duels_lost": 4.6997, 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"scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.4531, xG scale 1.1644, xA scale 1.3015, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7821, "tackles": 1.34, "tackles_won": 0.831, "clearances": 2.1514, "aerial_won": 0.5539, "total_shots": 0.9743, "rating": 6.7495, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 27.5382, "accurate_pass": 21.7518, "duels_won": 3.2103, "total_long_balls": 3.9367, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5695, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9577, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.7941, "crosses_total": 3.2832, "crosses_accurate": 0.8883, "touches": 46.5935, "possession_lost": 12.3897, "dispossessed": 0.4901, "duels_lost": 4.6997, "aerial_lost": 1.3488, "total_contest": 1.9418, "won_contest": 0.5601, "ball_recovery": 3.6712, 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"squad_xa_sum": 0.845, "team_expected_assists": 1.0998, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1644, "xa_scale": 1.3015, "opponent_lambda": 1.089, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1253, "after": 0.1459 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0946, "after": 0.1231 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7821, "tackles": 1.34, "tackles_won": 0.831, "clearances": 2.1514, "aerial_won": 0.5539, "total_shots": 0.9743, "rating": 6.7495, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 27.5382, "accurate_pass": 21.7518, "duels_won": 3.2103, "total_long_balls": 3.9367, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5695, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9577, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.7941, "crosses_total": 3.2832, "crosses_accurate": 0.8883, "touches": 46.5935, "possession_lost": 12.3897, "dispossessed": 0.4901, "duels_lost": 4.6997, "aerial_lost": 1.3488, "total_contest": 1.9418, "won_contest": 0.5601, "ball_recovery": 3.6712, "challenges_lost": 0.6395, "fouls": 0.8403, "fouls_drawn": 1.2502, "blocks": 0.1922, "goal_rate": 0.203, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0972, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1459, "expected_assists": 0.1231, 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1422.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7821, "tackles": 1.34, "tackles_won": 0.831, "clearances": 2.1514, "aerial_won": 0.5539, "total_shots": 0.9743, "rating": 6.7495, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 27.5382, "accurate_pass": 21.7518, "duels_won": 3.2103, "total_long_balls": 3.9367, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5695, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9577, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.7941, "crosses_total": 3.2832, "crosses_accurate": 0.8883, "touches": 46.5935, "possession_lost": 12.3897, "dispossessed": 0.4901, "duels_lost": 4.6997, "aerial_lost": 1.3488, "total_contest": 1.9418, "won_contest": 0.5601, "ball_recovery": 3.6712, "challenges_lost": 0.6395, "fouls": 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"goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1358, "goal_rate": 0.203, "scorer_weight": 0.1824, "squad_weight_total": 1.7932, "weight_share": 0.1017, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.4158, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4158, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3732 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7821, "tackles": 1.34, "tackles_won": 0.831, "clearances": 2.1514, "aerial_won": 0.5539, "total_shots": 0.9743, "rating": 6.7495, "minutes": 80.25, "total_pass": 27.5382, "accurate_pass": 21.7518, "duels_won": 3.2103, "total_long_balls": 3.9367, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5695, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9152, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059035 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.01308 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010813 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.008376 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007734 } ], "others_margin": -0.007274 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.792902946472168, "model_output": 6.7929, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 6.7929, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013073 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011339 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010766 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010647 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.008338 } ], "others_margin": 0.011639 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0071, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2055, "tackles": 1.6089, "tackles_won": 0.9516, "clearances": 5.0713, "aerial_won": 2.1486, "total_shots": 0.5217, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 88.58, "total_pass": 39.382, "accurate_pass": 33.5448, "duels_won": 4.5229, "total_long_balls": 3.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9684, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.2842, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2605, "crosses_total": 0.2184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0301, "touches": 53.5465, "possession_lost": 7.0938, "dispossessed": 0.37, "duels_lost": 3.2829, "aerial_lost": 1.3074, "total_contest": 0.3038, "won_contest": 0.0416, "ball_recovery": 3.3781, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.6925, "fouls_drawn": 0.5802, "blocks": 0.4832, "goals": 0.1111, "goal_rate": 0.1111, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0313, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.1781, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0467, "ball_carries": 14.4871, "total_progression": 78.3401, "progressive_carries": 1.7041, "key_pass": 0.3988, "shots_off_target": 0.3436 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0071, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2031, "tackles": 1.6089, "tackles_won": 0.9466, "clearances": 5.0713, "aerial_won": 2.1486, "total_shots": 0.5214, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 88.58, "total_pass": 39.382, "accurate_pass": 33.5448, "duels_won": 4.5229, "total_long_balls": 3.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9684, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.2842, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2605, "crosses_total": 0.216, "crosses_accurate": 0.0301, "touches": 53.5465, "possession_lost": 7.0938, "dispossessed": 0.37, "duels_lost": 3.2829, "aerial_lost": 1.3074, "total_contest": 0.3038, "won_contest": 0.0416, "ball_recovery": 3.3781, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.6957, "fouls_drawn": 0.5792, "blocks": 0.4832, "goals": 0.1099, "goal_rate": 0.1099, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0313, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.1815, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0467, "ball_carries": 14.4871, "total_progression": 78.3401, "progressive_carries": 1.7041, "key_pass": 0.3988, "shots_off_target": 0.3436 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9842, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9516, "after": 0.9466 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2031, "tackles": 1.6089, "tackles_won": 0.9466, "clearances": 5.0713, "aerial_won": 2.1486, "total_shots": 0.5251, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 88.58, "total_pass": 39.382, "accurate_pass": 33.5448, "duels_won": 4.5229, "total_long_balls": 3.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9684, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.2842, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2605, "crosses_total": 0.216, "crosses_accurate": 0.0301, "touches": 53.5465, "possession_lost": 7.0938, "dispossessed": 0.37, "duels_lost": 3.2829, "aerial_lost": 1.3074, "total_contest": 0.3038, "won_contest": 0.0416, "ball_recovery": 3.3781, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.6957, "fouls_drawn": 0.5792, "blocks": 0.4832, "goals": 0.1099, "goal_rate": 0.1099, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0313, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.1815, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0467, "ball_carries": 14.4871, "total_progression": 78.3401, "progressive_carries": 1.7041, "key_pass": 0.3988, "shots_off_target": 0.3436 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2031, "tackles": 1.6089, "tackles_won": 0.9466, "clearances": 5.0713, "aerial_won": 2.1486, "total_shots": 0.5251, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 88.58, "total_pass": 39.382, "accurate_pass": 33.5448, "duels_won": 4.5229, "total_long_balls": 3.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9684, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.2842, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2605, "crosses_total": 0.216, "crosses_accurate": 0.0301, "touches": 53.5465, "possession_lost": 7.0938, "dispossessed": 0.37, "duels_lost": 3.2829, "aerial_lost": 1.3074, "total_contest": 0.3038, "won_contest": 0.0416, "ball_recovery": 3.3781, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.6957, "fouls_drawn": 0.5792, "blocks": 0.4832, "goals": 0.1099, "goal_rate": 0.1099, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0313, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.1815, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0467, "ball_carries": 14.4871, "total_progression": 78.3401, "progressive_carries": 1.7041, "key_pass": 0.3988, "shots_off_target": 0.3436, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796, "opponent_faced": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2031, "tackles": 1.6089, "tackles_won": 0.9466, "clearances": 5.0713, "aerial_won": 2.1486, "total_shots": 0.5251, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 88.58, "total_pass": 39.382, "accurate_pass": 33.5448, "duels_won": 4.5229, "total_long_balls": 3.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9684, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.2842, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2605, "crosses_total": 0.216, "crosses_accurate": 0.0301, "touches": 53.5465, "possession_lost": 7.0938, "dispossessed": 0.37, "duels_lost": 3.2829, "aerial_lost": 1.3074, "total_contest": 0.3038, "won_contest": 0.0416, "ball_recovery": 3.3781, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.6957, "fouls_drawn": 0.5792, "blocks": 0.4832, "goal_rate": 0.1099, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0313, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.1815, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0467, "ball_carries": 14.4871, "total_progression": 78.3401, "progressive_carries": 1.7041, "key_pass": 0.3988, "shots_off_target": 0.3436, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796, "opponent_faced": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.4531, xG scale 1.1644, xA scale 1.3015, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2031, "tackles": 1.6089, "tackles_won": 0.9466, "clearances": 5.0713, "aerial_won": 2.1486, "total_shots": 0.5251, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 88.58, "total_pass": 39.382, "accurate_pass": 33.5448, "duels_won": 4.5229, "total_long_balls": 3.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9684, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.2842, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2605, "crosses_total": 0.216, "crosses_accurate": 0.0301, "touches": 53.5465, "possession_lost": 7.0938, "dispossessed": 0.37, "duels_lost": 3.2829, "aerial_lost": 1.3074, "total_contest": 0.3038, "won_contest": 0.0416, "ball_recovery": 3.3781, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.6957, "fouls_drawn": 0.5792, "blocks": 0.4832, "goal_rate": 0.1099, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "shots_on_target": 0.1815, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0544, "ball_carries": 14.4871, "total_progression": 78.3401, "progressive_carries": 1.7041, "key_pass": 0.3988, "shots_off_target": 0.3436, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796, "opponent_faced": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.692, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4531, "squad_xa_sum": 0.845, "team_expected_assists": 1.0998, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1644, "xa_scale": 1.3015, "opponent_lambda": 1.089, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0313, "after": 0.0364 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0368, "after": 0.0479 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2031, "tackles": 1.6089, "tackles_won": 0.9466, "clearances": 5.0713, "aerial_won": 2.1486, "total_shots": 0.5251, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 88.58, "total_pass": 39.382, "accurate_pass": 33.5448, "duels_won": 4.5229, "total_long_balls": 3.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9684, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.2842, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2605, "crosses_total": 0.216, "crosses_accurate": 0.0301, "touches": 53.5465, "possession_lost": 7.0938, "dispossessed": 0.37, "duels_lost": 3.2829, "aerial_lost": 1.3074, "total_contest": 0.3038, "won_contest": 0.0416, "ball_recovery": 3.3781, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.6957, "fouls_drawn": 0.5792, "blocks": 0.4832, "goal_rate": 0.1099, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "shots_on_target": 0.1815, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0544, "ball_carries": 14.4871, "total_progression": 78.3401, "progressive_carries": 1.7041, "key_pass": 0.3988, "shots_off_target": 0.3436, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796, "opponent_faced": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2163, "fifa_rank": 1412.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2031, "tackles": 1.6089, "tackles_won": 0.9466, "clearances": 5.0713, "aerial_won": 2.1486, "total_shots": 0.5251, "rating": 6.7929, "minutes": 88.58, "total_pass": 39.382, "accurate_pass": 33.5448, "duels_won": 4.5229, "total_long_balls": 3.2454, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9684, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.2842, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2605, "crosses_total": 0.216, "crosses_accurate": 0.0301, "touches": 53.5465, "possession_lost": 7.0938, "dispossessed": 0.37, "duels_lost": 3.2829, "aerial_lost": 1.3074, "total_contest": 0.3038, "won_contest": 0.0416, "ball_recovery": 3.3781, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.6957, "fouls_drawn": 0.5792, "blocks": 0.4832, "goal_rate": 0.1099, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "shots_on_target": 0.1815, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0544, "ball_carries": 14.4871, "total_progression": 78.3401, "progressive_carries": 1.7041, "key_pass": 0.3988, "shots_off_target": 0.3436, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796, "opponent_faced": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0357, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 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0.0111 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0345, "total": 6.9178, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.989751, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014121 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.01408 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.011102 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.010284 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010131 } ], "others_margin": -0.034393 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 45, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0061, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8957, "goals_prevented": -0.0562, "rating": 6.9178, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.3033, "accurate_pass": 22.9945, "total_long_balls": 19.7872, "accurate_long_balls": 7.6307, "touches": 45.6037, "clearances": 1.3976, "ball_recovery": 8.5016, "high_claims": 0.6484, "punches": 0.9194, "aerial_won": 0.2553, "sweeper_actions": 0.7716, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7716, "saves_inside_box": 1.9754, "possession_lost": 12.7173, "duels_won": 0.2917, "duels_lost": 0.0536, "total_contest": 0.027, "won_contest": 0.027, "fouls": 0.0401, "fouls_drawn": 0.0111, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2885 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0061, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0087)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8923, "goals_prevented": -0.0562, "rating": 6.9178, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.3033, "accurate_pass": 22.9945, "total_long_balls": 19.7872, "accurate_long_balls": 7.6307, "touches": 45.6037, "clearances": 1.3976, "ball_recovery": 8.5016, "high_claims": 0.6484, "punches": 0.9194, "aerial_won": 0.2553, "sweeper_actions": 0.7716, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7716, "saves_inside_box": 1.9754, "possession_lost": 12.7173, "duels_won": 0.2917, "duels_lost": 0.0536, "total_contest": 0.027, "won_contest": 0.027, "fouls": 0.0398, "fouls_drawn": 0.011, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2885 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0087, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8923, "goals_prevented": -0.0562, "rating": 6.9178, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.3033, "accurate_pass": 22.9945, "total_long_balls": 19.7872, "accurate_long_balls": 7.6307, "touches": 45.6037, "clearances": 1.3976, "ball_recovery": 8.5016, "high_claims": 0.6484, "punches": 0.9194, "aerial_won": 0.2553, "sweeper_actions": 0.7716, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7716, "saves_inside_box": 1.9754, "possession_lost": 12.7173, "duels_won": 0.2917, "duels_lost": 0.0536, "total_contest": 0.027, "won_contest": 0.027, "fouls": 0.0398, "fouls_drawn": 0.011, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2885 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8923, "goals_prevented": -0.0562, "rating": 6.9178, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.3033, "accurate_pass": 22.9945, "total_long_balls": 19.7872, "accurate_long_balls": 7.6307, "touches": 45.6037, "clearances": 1.3976, "ball_recovery": 8.5016, "high_claims": 0.6484, "punches": 0.9194, "aerial_won": 0.2553, "sweeper_actions": 0.7716, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7716, "saves_inside_box": 1.9754, "possession_lost": 12.7173, "duels_won": 0.2917, "duels_lost": 0.0536, "total_contest": 0.027, "won_contest": 0.027, "fouls": 0.0398, "fouls_drawn": 0.011, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2885, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1665, "shots_faced": 11.1, "expected_saves": 2.72, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Morgan Gibbs-White", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Morgan Gibbs-White", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.1665 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8923, "goals_prevented": -0.0562, "rating": 6.9178, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.3033, "accurate_pass": 22.9945, "total_long_balls": 19.7872, "accurate_long_balls": 7.6307, "touches": 45.6037, "clearances": 1.3976, "ball_recovery": 8.5016, "high_claims": 0.6484, "punches": 0.9194, "aerial_won": 0.2553, "sweeper_actions": 0.7716, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7716, "saves_inside_box": 1.9754, "possession_lost": 12.7173, "duels_won": 0.2917, "duels_lost": 0.0536, "total_contest": 0.027, "won_contest": 0.027, "fouls": 0.0398, "fouls_drawn": 0.011, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2885, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1665, "shots_faced": 11.1, "expected_saves": 2.72, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Morgan Gibbs-White", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.4531, xG scale 1.1644, xA scale 1.3015, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8923, "goals_prevented": -0.0562, "rating": 6.9178, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.3033, "accurate_pass": 22.9945, "total_long_balls": 19.7872, "accurate_long_balls": 7.6307, "touches": 45.6037, "clearances": 1.3976, "ball_recovery": 8.5016, "high_claims": 0.6484, "punches": 0.9194, "aerial_won": 0.2553, "sweeper_actions": 0.7716, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7716, "saves_inside_box": 1.9754, "possession_lost": 12.7173, "duels_won": 0.2917, "duels_lost": 0.0536, "total_contest": 0.027, "won_contest": 0.027, "fouls": 0.0398, "fouls_drawn": 0.011, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2885, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1665, "shots_faced": 10.3, "expected_saves": 2.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.87, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Morgan Gibbs-White", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.692, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4531, "squad_xa_sum": 0.845, "team_expected_assists": 1.0998, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1644, "xa_scale": 1.3015, "opponent_lambda": 1.089, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.1, "after": 10.3 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.72, "after": 2.52 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.93, "after": 0.87 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8923, "goals_prevented": -0.0562, "rating": 6.9178, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.3033, "accurate_pass": 22.9945, "total_long_balls": 19.7872, "accurate_long_balls": 7.6307, "touches": 45.6037, "clearances": 1.3976, "ball_recovery": 8.5016, "high_claims": 0.6484, "punches": 0.9194, "aerial_won": 0.2553, "sweeper_actions": 0.7716, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7716, "saves_inside_box": 1.9754, "possession_lost": 12.7173, "duels_won": 0.2917, "duels_lost": 0.0536, "total_contest": 0.027, "won_contest": 0.027, "fouls": 0.0398, "fouls_drawn": 0.011, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2885, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1665, "shots_faced": 10.3, "expected_saves": 2.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.87, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Morgan Gibbs-White", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.7932, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.4158, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4158, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3732 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8923, "goals_prevented": -0.0562, "rating": 6.9178, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.3033, "accurate_pass": 22.9945, "total_long_balls": 19.7872, "accurate_long_balls": 7.6307, "touches": 45.6037, "clearances": 1.3976, "ball_recovery": 8.5016, "high_claims": 0.6484, "punches": 0.9194, "aerial_won": 0.2553, "sweeper_actions": 0.7716, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7716, "saves_inside_box": 1.9754, "possession_lost": 12.7173, "duels_won": 0.2917, "duels_lost": 0.0536, 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"effective_weight": 0.1671, "runner_up": "Mathias Jensen", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1622, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kevin Schade" ] } ] } } ] }, "Michael Kayode": { "player_id": 1137431, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 33, "height": 179, "market_value": 39000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7284, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 13.1731, "dispossessed": 0.4976, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0775, "goals": 0, 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"contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], "others": -0.046, "total": 6.7284, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.041515 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.025407 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017816 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012273 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.012221 } ], "others_margin": -0.046074 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.775)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1782, "tackles": 1.8187, "tackles_won": 1.2125, "clearances": 2.4252, "aerial_won": 0.8321, "total_shots": 0.6011, "rating": 6.7284, "minutes": 83.79, "total_pass": 25.6311, "accurate_pass": 21.4304, "duels_won": 4.676, "total_long_balls": 1.8464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.838, "total_own_half_passes": 12.8899, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.3598, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7413, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0706, "crosses_total": 1.8563, "crosses_accurate": 0.4773, "touches": 52.0772, "possession_lost": 13.1731, "dispossessed": 0.4976, "duels_lost": 4.1326, "aerial_lost": 0.6687, "total_contest": 2.5644, "won_contest": 1.503, "ball_recovery": 4.1146, "challenges_lost": 1.0235, "fouls": 0.9173, "fouls_drawn": 1.0619, "blocks": 0.5647, "goals": 0.074, 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0.6011, "after": 0.6166 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0619, "after": 1.0698 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2125, "after": 1.2071 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1771, "tackles": 1.8187, "tackles_won": 1.2071, "clearances": 2.4252, "aerial_won": 0.8321, "total_shots": 0.6166, "rating": 6.7284, "minutes": 83.79, "total_pass": 25.6311, "accurate_pass": 21.4304, "duels_won": 4.676, "total_long_balls": 1.8464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.838, "total_own_half_passes": 12.8899, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.3598, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7413, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0706, "crosses_total": 1.858, "crosses_accurate": 0.4773, "touches": 52.0772, "possession_lost": 13.1731, "dispossessed": 0.4976, "duels_lost": 4.1326, "aerial_lost": 0.6687, "total_contest": 2.5644, "won_contest": 1.503, "ball_recovery": 4.1146, "challenges_lost": 1.0235, "fouls": 0.9182, 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"creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.692, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4531, "squad_xa_sum": 0.845, "team_expected_assists": 1.0998, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1644, "xa_scale": 1.3015, "opponent_lambda": 1.089, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.057, "after": 0.0664 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0735, "after": 0.0957 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"contribution": -0.2502 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0407, "total": 0.1853, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.250162 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011922 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.008469 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.008346 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008184 } ], "others_margin": -0.040726 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.724803924560547, "model_output": 6.7248, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { 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"player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7781, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nathan Collins", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vitalie Damașcan", "ranking": 1154 }, { "player_name": "Vlad Chiricheş", "ranking": 1155 }, { "player_name": "Emil Krafth", "ranking": 1156 }, { "player_name": "Sidny Lopes Cabral", "ranking": 1157 }, { "player_name": "Andreas Christensen", "ranking": 1158 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Chris Richards", "ranking": 1160 }, { "player_name": "Andriy Lunin", "ranking": 1161 }, { "player_name": "Lee Joon-Ho", "ranking": 1162 }, { "player_name": "Seung-beom Ko", "ranking": 1163 }, { "player_name": "Seung-hyeon Cha", "ranking": 1164 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", 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"margin": 0.044532 } ], "others_margin": 0.02261 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.46514269709587097, "model_output": 0.4651, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2412 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2162 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0002, "total": 0.4651, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.241229 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.216246 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021485 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0065, quality 0.718)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3865, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "assists": 0.0505, "assist_rate": 0.0505, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goals": 0.0284, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "shots_on_target": 0.1154, "total_shots": 0.3348, "rating": 6.7176, "minutes": 27.48, "total_pass": 17.0143, "accurate_pass": 14.1573, "duels_won": 1.3591, "total_long_balls": 1.339, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3483, "total_own_half_passes": 7.198, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9433, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.214, "crosses_total": 0.7469, "crosses_accurate": 0.1989, "touches": 23.3223, "possession_lost": 4.8245, "dispossessed": 0.5654, "duels_lost": 2.1904, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.5938, "tackles_won": 0.5305, "tackles": 0.6723, "clearances": 0.4685, 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0.0314, "assist_rate": 0.0423, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.0237, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0965, "total_shots": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7176, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2653, "accurate_pass": 11.8699, "duels_won": 1.1395, "total_long_balls": 1.1227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.292, "total_own_half_passes": 6.035, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.983, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2303, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8868, "crosses_total": 0.6271, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5541, "possession_lost": 4.045, "dispossessed": 0.5654, "duels_lost": 1.8365, "aerial_won": 0.462, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.4979, "tackles_won": 0.446, "tackles": 0.5637, "clearances": 0.3928, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7639, "fouls": 0.499, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9264, "total_progression": 2.5803, 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"away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.3531, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 740, "combined_rank_score": 357.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 32.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.9625, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 683.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9282, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Shakhzod Ubaydullaev", "ranking": 735 }, { "player_name": "Ravshan Khayrullaev", "ranking": 736 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-bin Park", "ranking": 737 }, { "player_name": "Borja Bastón", "ranking": 738 }, { "player_name": "Micky van de Ven", "ranking": 739 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "John Stones", "ranking": 741 }, { "player_name": "Aleksandar Boljević", "ranking": 742 }, { "player_name": "Zaid Tahseen", "ranking": 743 }, { "player_name": "Driton Camaj", "ranking": 744 }, { "player_name": "Jong-uk Koo", "ranking": 745 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.759, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0655 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0947, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": 0.0008, "total": 0.0432, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.357331, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.460577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.139942 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.109214 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.052549 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.042749 } ], "others_margin": 0.020716 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.18422803282737732, "model_output": 0.1842, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.133 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0058 } ], "others": -0.014, "total": 0.1842, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.542165 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.070299 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.06665 }, { "name": 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{ "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053711 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.04912 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030436 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.023748 } ], "others_margin": -0.077367 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.928215026855469, "model_output": 6.9282, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1042 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.093 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0171 } ], "others": 0.0276, "total": 6.9282, "log_link": false, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.310278 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.097947 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.050677 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.046906 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.040071 } ], "others_margin": 0.042742 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.513180136680603, "model_output": 0.5132, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2427 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": 0.0458, "total": 0.5132, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.430477 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.042012 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.030427 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.019765 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017326 } ], "others_margin": 0.093452 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.736445903778076, "model_output": 6.7364, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0719 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": 0.004, "total": 6.7364, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071941 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.019117 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.012694 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.01024 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.009249 } ], "others_margin": 0.004063 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1179, "goals": 0.0992, "goal_rate": 0.0992, "shots_on_target": 0.3409, "total_shots": 1.0431, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "key_pass": 0.515, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 24.87, "total_pass": 10.3658, "accurate_pass": 7.5715, "duels_won": 2.0948, "total_long_balls": 0.4609, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0781, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1338, "crosses_total": 1.9903, "crosses_accurate": 0.4345, "touches": 19.8714, "possession_lost": 6.7859, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1957, "aerial_lost": 0.3672, "total_contest": 2.2704, "won_contest": 0.7674, "ball_recovery": 2.7106, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3254, "fouls_drawn": 0.4095, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2766, "tackles": 0.5041, "clearances": 0.3149, "blocks": 0.108, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1782, "offsides": 0.1495, "ball_carries": 6.483, "total_progression": 17.6076, "progressive_carries": 0.6668, "shots_off_target": 0.7022 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.0036, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0039)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1179, "goals": 0.0988, "goal_rate": 0.0988, "shots_on_target": 0.3396, "total_shots": 1.0425, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "key_pass": 0.515, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 24.87, "total_pass": 10.3658, "accurate_pass": 7.5715, "duels_won": 2.0948, "total_long_balls": 0.4609, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0781, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1338, "crosses_total": 1.9873, "crosses_accurate": 0.4345, "touches": 19.8714, "possession_lost": 6.7859, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1957, "aerial_lost": 0.3672, "total_contest": 2.2704, "won_contest": 0.7674, "ball_recovery": 2.7106, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3277, "fouls_drawn": 0.4079, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2767, "tackles": 0.5041, "clearances": 0.3149, "blocks": 0.108, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1782, "offsides": 0.1501, "ball_carries": 6.483, "total_progression": 17.6076, "progressive_carries": 0.6668, "shots_off_target": 0.7022 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0039, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2763, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.9 to 24.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1181, "goals": 0.099, "goal_rate": 0.099, "shots_on_target": 0.3403, "total_shots": 1.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0569, "key_pass": 0.516, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 24.92, "total_pass": 10.3866, "accurate_pass": 7.5867, "duels_won": 2.099, "total_long_balls": 0.4618, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0783, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1461, "crosses_total": 1.9913, "crosses_accurate": 0.4354, "touches": 19.9114, "possession_lost": 6.7995, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2001, "aerial_lost": 0.3672, "total_contest": 2.275, "won_contest": 0.7689, "ball_recovery": 2.716, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3284, "fouls_drawn": 0.4087, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2773, "tackles": 0.5051, "clearances": 0.3155, "blocks": 0.1082, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1786, "offsides": 0.1501, "ball_carries": 6.496, "total_progression": 17.643, "progressive_carries": 0.6681, "shots_off_target": 0.7036, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.542, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.92, "projection_minutes": 24.87, "minutes_scale": 1.002, "appearance_probability": 0.542 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1181, "goals": 0.099, "goal_rate": 0.099, "shots_on_target": 0.3403, "total_shots": 1.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0569, "key_pass": 0.516, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 24.92, "total_pass": 10.3866, "accurate_pass": 7.5867, "duels_won": 2.099, "total_long_balls": 0.4618, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0783, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1461, "crosses_total": 1.9913, "crosses_accurate": 0.4354, "touches": 19.9114, "possession_lost": 6.7995, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2001, "aerial_lost": 0.3672, "total_contest": 2.275, "won_contest": 0.7689, "ball_recovery": 2.716, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3284, "fouls_drawn": 0.4087, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2773, "tackles": 0.5051, "clearances": 0.3155, "blocks": 0.1082, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1786, "offsides": 0.1501, "ball_carries": 6.496, "total_progression": 17.643, "progressive_carries": 0.6681, "shots_off_target": 0.7036, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.542, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1181, "goal_rate": 0.099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3403, "total_shots": 1.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0569, "key_pass": 0.516, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 24.92, "total_pass": 10.3866, "accurate_pass": 7.5867, "duels_won": 2.099, "total_long_balls": 0.4618, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0783, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1461, "crosses_total": 1.9913, "crosses_accurate": 0.4354, "touches": 19.9114, "possession_lost": 6.7995, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2001, "aerial_lost": 0.3672, "total_contest": 2.275, "won_contest": 0.7689, "ball_recovery": 2.716, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3284, "fouls_drawn": 0.4087, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2773, "tackles": 0.5051, "clearances": 0.3155, "blocks": 0.1082, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1786, "offsides": 0.1501, "ball_carries": 6.496, "total_progression": 17.643, "progressive_carries": 0.6681, "shots_off_target": 0.7036, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.542, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.92, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.706, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.4531, xG scale 1.1644, xA scale 1.3015, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goal_rate": 0.099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3403, "total_shots": 1.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "key_pass": 0.516, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 24.92, "total_pass": 10.3866, "accurate_pass": 7.5867, "duels_won": 2.099, "total_long_balls": 0.4618, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0783, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1461, "crosses_total": 1.9913, "crosses_accurate": 0.4354, "touches": 19.9114, "possession_lost": 6.7995, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2001, "aerial_lost": 0.3672, "total_contest": 2.275, "won_contest": 0.7689, "ball_recovery": 2.716, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3284, "fouls_drawn": 0.4087, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2773, "tackles": 0.5051, "clearances": 0.3155, "blocks": 0.1082, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1127, "offsides": 0.1501, "ball_carries": 6.496, "total_progression": 17.643, "progressive_carries": 0.6681, "shots_off_target": 0.7036, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.542, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.92, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.706, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8864, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.692, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4531, "squad_xa_sum": 0.845, "team_expected_assists": 1.0998, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1644, "xa_scale": 1.3015, "opponent_lambda": 1.089, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.542 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1181, "after": 0.0745 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0569, "after": 0.0401 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goal_rate": 0.099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3403, "total_shots": 1.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "key_pass": 0.516, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 24.92, "total_pass": 10.3866, "accurate_pass": 7.5867, "duels_won": 2.099, "total_long_balls": 0.4618, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0783, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1461, "crosses_total": 1.9913, "crosses_accurate": 0.4354, "touches": 19.9114, "possession_lost": 6.7995, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2001, "aerial_lost": 0.3672, "total_contest": 2.275, "won_contest": 0.7689, "ball_recovery": 2.716, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3284, "fouls_drawn": 0.4087, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2773, "tackles": 0.5051, "clearances": 0.3155, "blocks": 0.1082, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1127, "offsides": 0.1501, "ball_carries": 6.496, "total_progression": 17.643, "progressive_carries": 0.6681, "shots_off_target": 0.7036, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.542, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.92, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.706, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8864, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3072, "fifa_rank": 1789.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goal_rate": 0.099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3403, "total_shots": 1.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "key_pass": 0.516, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 24.92, "total_pass": 10.3866, "accurate_pass": 7.5867, "duels_won": 2.099, "total_long_balls": 0.4618, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0783, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1461, "crosses_total": 1.9913, "crosses_accurate": 0.4354, "touches": 19.9114, "possession_lost": 6.7995, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2001, "aerial_lost": 0.3672, "total_contest": 2.275, "won_contest": 0.7689, "ball_recovery": 2.716, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3284, "fouls_drawn": 0.4087, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2773, "tackles": 0.5051, "clearances": 0.3155, "blocks": 0.1082, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1127, "offsides": 0.1501, "ball_carries": 6.496, "total_progression": 17.643, "progressive_carries": 0.6681, "shots_off_target": 0.7036, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.542, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.92, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.706, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0696, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8864, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0696, "goal_rate": 0.099, "scorer_weight": 0.066, "squad_weight_total": 1.7932, "weight_share": 0.0368, "finishing_factor": 0.8864, "appearance_weight": 0.542, "weight_rank": 9, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0058, "total": 0.0192, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.40872 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.278269 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.096048 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.092855 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.077127 } ], "others_margin": -0.262836 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3543659746646881, "model_output": 0.3544, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2576 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.016 } ], "others": -0.0237, "total": 0.3544, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.464013 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.079963 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.065476 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.043558 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.041429 } ], "others_margin": -0.064651 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.612448692321777, "model_output": 6.6124, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0633 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.06, "total": 6.6124, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063339 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028537 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019593 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.016247 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012721 } ], "others_margin": -0.059803 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0003, quality 0.508)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.2018, "total_shots": 0.6031, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "key_pass": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 17.18, "total_pass": 8.5294, "accurate_pass": 7.7081, "duels_won": 1.0518, "total_long_balls": 0.4049, "accurate_long_balls": 0.27, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0086, "crosses_total": 0.2417, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.5935, "possession_lost": 2.8294, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 1.3511, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.3505, "won_contest": 0.5425, "ball_recovery": 1.349, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1137, "assists": 0.1588, "assist_rate": 0.1588, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3447, "tackles": 0.3956, "clearances": 0.1303, "blocks": 0.0599, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2123, "xgot": 0.0218, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4504, "total_progression": 9.1035, "progressive_carries": 0.7402, "shots_off_target": 0.4013 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8800000, "quality_factor": 0.5083, "boost_factor": 1.0003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goals": 0.0841, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8977, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "key_pass": 0.5277, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assists": 0.2364, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0324, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5973, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.57, "projection_minutes": 17.18, "minutes_scale": 1.4885, "appearance_probability": 0.571 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goals": 0.0841, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8977, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "key_pass": 0.5277, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assists": 0.2364, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0324, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5973, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8977, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "key_pass": 0.5277, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0324, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5973, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.706, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.4531, xG scale 1.1644, xA scale 1.3015, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8977, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.5277, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0215, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5973, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.706, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9104, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.692, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4531, "squad_xa_sum": 0.845, "team_expected_assists": 1.0998, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1644, "xa_scale": 1.3015, "opponent_lambda": 1.089, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.571 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0973, "after": 0.0647 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0286, "after": 0.0213 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8977, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.5277, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0215, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5973, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.706, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9104, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3551, "fifa_rank": 2192.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8977, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.5277, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0215, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5973, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.706, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0612, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9104, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "scorer_weight": 0.0589, "squad_weight_total": 1.7932, "weight_share": 0.0328, "finishing_factor": 0.9104, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.4158, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4158, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3732 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8977, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.5277, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, 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0.33261677622795105, "model_output": 0.3326, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3399 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2068 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0275, "total": 0.3326, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.339901 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.206765 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035815 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.02863 }, { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0065, quality 0.718)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3865, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "assists": 0.0505, "assist_rate": 0.0505, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goals": 0.0284, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "shots_on_target": 0.1154, "total_shots": 0.3348, "rating": 6.7176, "minutes": 27.48, "total_pass": 17.0143, "accurate_pass": 14.1573, "duels_won": 1.3591, "total_long_balls": 1.339, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3483, "total_own_half_passes": 7.198, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9433, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.214, "crosses_total": 0.7469, "crosses_accurate": 0.1989, "touches": 23.3223, "possession_lost": 4.8245, "dispossessed": 0.5654, "duels_lost": 2.1904, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.5938, "tackles_won": 0.5305, "tackles": 0.6723, "clearances": 0.4685, 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0.0314, "assist_rate": 0.0423, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.0237, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0965, "total_shots": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7176, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2653, "accurate_pass": 11.8699, "duels_won": 1.1395, "total_long_balls": 1.1227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.292, "total_own_half_passes": 6.035, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.983, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2303, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8868, "crosses_total": 0.6271, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5541, "possession_lost": 4.045, "dispossessed": 0.5654, "duels_lost": 1.8365, "aerial_won": 0.462, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.4979, "tackles_won": 0.446, "tackles": 0.5637, "clearances": 0.3928, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7639, "fouls": 0.499, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9264, "total_progression": 2.5803, 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"importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0552 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0647, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0058, "total": 0.0192, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.40872 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.278269 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.096048 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.092855 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.077127 } ], "others_margin": -0.262836 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3543659746646881, "model_output": 0.3544, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"rating", "predicted": 6.612448692321777, "model_output": 6.6124, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0633 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.06, "total": 6.6124, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063339 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028537 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019593 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0003, quality 0.508)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.2018, "total_shots": 0.6031, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "key_pass": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 17.18, "total_pass": 8.5294, "accurate_pass": 7.7081, "duels_won": 1.0518, "total_long_balls": 0.4049, "accurate_long_balls": 0.27, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0086, "crosses_total": 0.2417, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.5935, "possession_lost": 2.8294, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 1.3511, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.3505, "won_contest": 0.5425, "ball_recovery": 1.349, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1137, "assists": 0.1588, "assist_rate": 0.1588, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3447, "tackles": 0.3956, "clearances": 0.1303, "blocks": 0.0599, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2123, "xgot": 0.0218, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4504, "total_progression": 9.1035, "progressive_carries": 0.7402, "shots_off_target": 0.4013 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8800000, "quality_factor": 0.5083, "boost_factor": 1.0003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goals": 0.0841, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8977, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "key_pass": 0.5277, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assists": 0.2364, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0324, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5973, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.57, "projection_minutes": 17.18, "minutes_scale": 1.4885, "appearance_probability": 0.571 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goals": 0.0841, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8977, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "key_pass": 0.5277, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assists": 0.2364, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0324, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5973, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0973, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8977, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "key_pass": 0.5277, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0324, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5973, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.706, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.4531, xG scale 1.1644, xA scale 1.3015, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8977, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.5277, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0215, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5973, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.706, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9104, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.692, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4531, "squad_xa_sum": 0.845, "team_expected_assists": 1.0998, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1644, "xa_scale": 1.3015, "opponent_lambda": 1.089, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.571 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0973, "after": 0.0647 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0286, "after": 0.0213 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8977, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.5277, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0215, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5973, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.706, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9104, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3551, "fifa_rank": 2192.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8977, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.5277, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, 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"accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2427 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": 0.0458, "total": 0.5132, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.430477 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.042012 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.030427 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.019765 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017326 } ], "others_margin": 0.093452 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.736445903778076, "model_output": 6.7364, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0719 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": 0.004, "total": 6.7364, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071941 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.019117 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.012694 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.01024 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.009249 } ], "others_margin": 0.004063 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1179, "goals": 0.0992, "goal_rate": 0.0992, "shots_on_target": 0.3409, "total_shots": 1.0431, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "key_pass": 0.515, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 24.87, "total_pass": 10.3658, "accurate_pass": 7.5715, "duels_won": 2.0948, "total_long_balls": 0.4609, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0781, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1338, "crosses_total": 1.9903, "crosses_accurate": 0.4345, "touches": 19.8714, "possession_lost": 6.7859, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1957, "aerial_lost": 0.3672, "total_contest": 2.2704, "won_contest": 0.7674, "ball_recovery": 2.7106, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3254, "fouls_drawn": 0.4095, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2766, "tackles": 0.5041, "clearances": 0.3149, "blocks": 0.108, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1782, "offsides": 0.1495, "ball_carries": 6.483, "total_progression": 17.6076, "progressive_carries": 0.6668, "shots_off_target": 0.7022 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.0036, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0039)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1179, "goals": 0.0988, "goal_rate": 0.0988, "shots_on_target": 0.3396, "total_shots": 1.0425, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "key_pass": 0.515, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 24.87, "total_pass": 10.3658, "accurate_pass": 7.5715, "duels_won": 2.0948, "total_long_balls": 0.4609, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0781, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1338, "crosses_total": 1.9873, 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0.7036, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.542, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.92, "projection_minutes": 24.87, "minutes_scale": 1.002, "appearance_probability": 0.542 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1181, "goals": 0.099, "goal_rate": 0.099, "shots_on_target": 0.3403, "total_shots": 1.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0569, "key_pass": 0.516, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 24.92, "total_pass": 10.3866, "accurate_pass": 7.5867, "duels_won": 2.099, "total_long_balls": 0.4618, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0783, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1461, "crosses_total": 1.9913, "crosses_accurate": 0.4354, "touches": 19.9114, "possession_lost": 6.7995, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2001, "aerial_lost": 0.3672, "total_contest": 2.275, "won_contest": 0.7689, "ball_recovery": 2.716, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3284, 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"total_long_balls": 0.4618, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0783, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1461, "crosses_total": 1.9913, "crosses_accurate": 0.4354, "touches": 19.9114, "possession_lost": 6.7995, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2001, "aerial_lost": 0.3672, "total_contest": 2.275, "won_contest": 0.7689, "ball_recovery": 2.716, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3284, "fouls_drawn": 0.4087, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2773, "tackles": 0.5051, "clearances": 0.3155, "blocks": 0.1082, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1786, "offsides": 0.1501, "ball_carries": 6.496, "total_progression": 17.643, "progressive_carries": 0.6681, "shots_off_target": 0.7036, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.542, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.92, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.706, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.4531, xG scale 1.1644, xA scale 1.3015, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goal_rate": 0.099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3403, "total_shots": 1.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "key_pass": 0.516, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 24.92, "total_pass": 10.3866, "accurate_pass": 7.5867, "duels_won": 2.099, "total_long_balls": 0.4618, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0783, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1461, "crosses_total": 1.9913, "crosses_accurate": 0.4354, "touches": 19.9114, 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"finishing_factor": 0.8864, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.692, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4531, "squad_xa_sum": 0.845, "team_expected_assists": 1.0998, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1644, "xa_scale": 1.3015, "opponent_lambda": 1.089, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.542 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1181, "after": 0.0745 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0569, "after": 0.0401 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goal_rate": 0.099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3403, "total_shots": 1.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "key_pass": 0.516, "rating": 6.7364, "minutes": 24.92, "total_pass": 10.3866, "accurate_pass": 7.5867, "duels_won": 2.099, "total_long_balls": 0.4618, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0783, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1461, "crosses_total": 1.9913, "crosses_accurate": 0.4354, "touches": 19.9114, "possession_lost": 6.7995, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2001, "aerial_lost": 0.3672, "total_contest": 2.275, "won_contest": 0.7689, "ball_recovery": 2.716, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3284, "fouls_drawn": 0.4087, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2773, "tackles": 0.5051, "clearances": 0.3155, "blocks": 0.1082, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1127, 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"contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0209, "total": 6.9928, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.989751, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.020671 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.015722 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015272 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011114 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008308 } ], "others_margin": -0.020925 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9093, "goals_prevented": 0.0197, "rating": 6.9928, "minutes": 89.71, "total_pass": 27.7057, "accurate_pass": 15.3741, "total_long_balls": 18.74, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4744, "touches": 36.1351, "clearances": 1.1227, "ball_recovery": 7.9939, "high_claims": 0.315, "punches": 0.6853, "aerial_won": 0.2107, "sweeper_actions": 0.8764, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8764, "saves_inside_box": 1.6819, "possession_lost": 12.5061, "duels_won": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 0.1077, "total_contest": 0.0481, "won_contest": 0.0481, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.042, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2013, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.1335, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.683, "shots_faced": 16.1, "expected_saves": 3.94, "high_pressure_saves": 1.35, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "saves": 2.9093, "goals_prevented": 0.0197, "rating": 6.9928, "minutes": 89.71, "total_pass": 27.7057, "accurate_pass": 15.3741, "total_long_balls": 18.74, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4744, "touches": 36.1351, "clearances": 1.1227, "ball_recovery": 7.9939, "high_claims": 0.315, "punches": 0.6853, "aerial_won": 0.2107, "sweeper_actions": 0.8764, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8764, "saves_inside_box": 1.6819, "possession_lost": 12.5061, "duels_won": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 0.1077, "total_contest": 0.0481, "won_contest": 0.0481, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.042, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2013, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.1335, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.683, "shots_faced": 16.1, "expected_saves": 3.94, "high_pressure_saves": 1.35, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade", "matchup_zone": 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0058, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8726, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363897, "match_date": "2026-10-23", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1255, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 65, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { 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"contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": 0.0102, "total": 6.752, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015997 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014574 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010876 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008033 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.005863 } ], "others_margin": 0.010117 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 15, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8579, "tackles": 1.414, "tackles_won": 0.8605, "clearances": 5.0032, "aerial_won": 1.547, "total_shots": 0.5234, "rating": 6.752, "minutes": 84.61, "total_pass": 38.5967, "accurate_pass": 31.9439, "duels_won": 3.7524, "total_long_balls": 5.5424, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6711, "total_own_half_passes": 23.5295, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5904, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0672, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3534, "crosses_total": 0.4327, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.398, "possession_lost": 8.4219, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.3802, "aerial_lost": 1.1672, "total_contest": 0.5901, "won_contest": 0.3978, "ball_recovery": 2.656, "challenges_lost": 1.2196, "fouls": 0.801, "fouls_drawn": 0.7744, "blocks": 0.1869, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "shots_on_target": 0.234, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0421, "ball_carries": 10.2526, "total_progression": 47.1863, "progressive_carries": 0.711, "key_pass": 0.2787, "shots_off_target": 0.2894, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.751, "opponent_faced": "Mathias Jensen", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 1.3706, xG scale 0.7945, xA scale 0.7945, team xA 0.76 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8579, "tackles": 1.414, "tackles_won": 0.8605, "clearances": 5.0032, "aerial_won": 1.547, "total_shots": 0.5234, "rating": 6.752, "minutes": 84.61, "total_pass": 38.5967, "accurate_pass": 31.9439, "duels_won": 3.7524, "total_long_balls": 5.5424, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6711, "total_own_half_passes": 23.5295, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5904, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0672, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3534, "crosses_total": 0.4327, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.398, "possession_lost": 8.4219, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.3802, "aerial_lost": 1.1672, "total_contest": 0.5901, "won_contest": 0.3978, "ball_recovery": 2.656, "challenges_lost": 1.2196, "fouls": 0.801, "fouls_drawn": 0.7744, "blocks": 0.1869, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0282, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "shots_on_target": 0.234, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0334, "ball_carries": 10.2526, "total_progression": 47.1863, "progressive_carries": 0.711, "key_pass": 0.2787, "shots_off_target": 0.2894, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.751, "opponent_faced": "Mathias Jensen", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8726 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.089, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3706, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9608, "team_expected_assists": 0.7634, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.701, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7945, "xa_scale": 0.7945, "opponent_lambda": 1.692, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0355, "after": 0.0282 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Nikola Milenković": { "player_id": 836168, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 31, "height": 195, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 6.5662, "dispossessed": 0.2044, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.023, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 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"totalPass", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0083, "total": 6.7525, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014424 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.012489 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011998 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.011367 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011053 } ], "others_margin": -0.008375 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0769, "tackles": 1.2452, "tackles_won": 0.7108, "clearances": 6.0494, "aerial_won": 2.128, "total_shots": 0.474, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1208, "accurate_pass": 34.1614, "duels_won": 4.0964, "total_long_balls": 5.3679, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8229, "total_own_half_passes": 28.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1133, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0481, "crosses_total": 0.0044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6088, "possession_lost": 6.5662, "dispossessed": 0.2044, "duels_lost": 2.4579, "aerial_lost": 0.7407, "total_contest": 0.1247, "won_contest": 0.1247, "ball_recovery": 3.5618, "challenges_lost": 0.3868, "fouls": 1.1309, "fouls_drawn": 0.3962, "blocks": 1.0277, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "shots_on_target": 0.0007, "big_chances_created": 0.0005, "xgot": 0.0001, "ball_carries": 10.8067, "total_progression": 20.136, "progressive_carries": 0.0443, "key_pass": 0.3092, "shots_off_target": 0.4732 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0058, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0808, "tackles": 1.2452, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "clearances": 6.0494, "aerial_won": 2.128, "total_shots": 0.4788, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1208, "accurate_pass": 34.1614, "duels_won": 4.0964, "total_long_balls": 5.3679, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8229, "total_own_half_passes": 28.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1133, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0481, "crosses_total": 0.0044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6088, "possession_lost": 6.5662, "dispossessed": 0.2044, "duels_lost": 2.4579, "aerial_lost": 0.7407, "total_contest": 0.1247, "won_contest": 0.1247, "ball_recovery": 3.5618, "challenges_lost": 0.3868, "fouls": 1.1389, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "blocks": 1.0277, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "shots_on_target": 0.0007, "big_chances_created": 0.0005, "xgot": 0.0001, "ball_carries": 10.8067, "total_progression": 20.136, "progressive_carries": 0.0443, "key_pass": 0.3092, "shots_off_target": 0.4732 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1309, "after": 1.1389 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0808, "tackles": 1.2452, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "clearances": 6.0494, "aerial_won": 2.128, "total_shots": 0.4788, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1208, "accurate_pass": 34.1614, "duels_won": 4.0964, "total_long_balls": 5.3679, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8229, "total_own_half_passes": 28.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1133, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0481, "crosses_total": 0.0044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6088, "possession_lost": 6.5662, "dispossessed": 0.2044, "duels_lost": 2.4579, "aerial_lost": 0.7407, "total_contest": 0.1247, "won_contest": 0.1247, "ball_recovery": 3.5618, "challenges_lost": 0.3868, "fouls": 1.1389, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "blocks": 1.0277, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "shots_on_target": 0.0007, "big_chances_created": 0.0005, "xgot": 0.0001, "ball_carries": 10.8067, "total_progression": 20.136, "progressive_carries": 0.0443, "key_pass": 0.3092, "shots_off_target": 0.4732 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0808, "tackles": 1.2452, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "clearances": 6.0494, "aerial_won": 2.128, "total_shots": 0.4788, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1208, "accurate_pass": 34.1614, "duels_won": 4.0964, "total_long_balls": 5.3679, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8229, "total_own_half_passes": 28.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1133, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0481, "crosses_total": 0.0044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6088, "possession_lost": 6.5662, "dispossessed": 0.2044, "duels_lost": 2.4579, "aerial_lost": 0.7407, "total_contest": 0.1247, "won_contest": 0.1247, "ball_recovery": 3.5618, "challenges_lost": 0.3868, "fouls": 1.1389, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "blocks": 1.0277, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "shots_on_target": 0.0007, "big_chances_created": 0.0005, "xgot": 0.0001, "ball_carries": 10.8067, "total_progression": 20.136, "progressive_carries": 0.0443, "key_pass": 0.3092, "shots_off_target": 0.4732, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0808, "tackles": 1.2452, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "clearances": 6.0494, "aerial_won": 2.128, "total_shots": 0.4788, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1208, "accurate_pass": 34.1614, "duels_won": 4.0964, "total_long_balls": 5.3679, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8229, "total_own_half_passes": 28.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1133, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0481, "crosses_total": 0.0044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6088, "possession_lost": 6.5662, "dispossessed": 0.2044, "duels_lost": 2.4579, "aerial_lost": 0.7407, "total_contest": 0.1247, "won_contest": 0.1247, "ball_recovery": 3.5618, "challenges_lost": 0.3868, "fouls": 1.1389, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "blocks": 1.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "shots_on_target": 0.0007, "big_chances_created": 0.0005, "xgot": 0.0001, "ball_carries": 10.8067, "total_progression": 20.136, "progressive_carries": 0.0443, "key_pass": 0.3092, "shots_off_target": 0.4732, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 1.3706, xG scale 0.7945, xA scale 0.7945, team xA 0.76 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0808, "tackles": 1.2452, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "clearances": 6.0494, "aerial_won": 2.128, "total_shots": 0.4788, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1208, "accurate_pass": 34.1614, "duels_won": 4.0964, "total_long_balls": 5.3679, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8229, "total_own_half_passes": 28.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1133, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0481, "crosses_total": 0.0044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6088, "possession_lost": 6.5662, "dispossessed": 0.2044, "duels_lost": 2.4579, "aerial_lost": 0.7407, "total_contest": 0.1247, "won_contest": 0.1247, "ball_recovery": 3.5618, "challenges_lost": 0.3868, "fouls": 1.1389, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "blocks": 1.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.023, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "shots_on_target": 0.0007, "big_chances_created": 0.0005, "xgot": 0.0001, "ball_carries": 10.8067, "total_progression": 20.136, "progressive_carries": 0.0443, "key_pass": 0.3092, "shots_off_target": 0.4732, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.089, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3706, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9608, "team_expected_assists": 0.7634, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.701, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7945, "xa_scale": 0.7945, "opponent_lambda": 1.692, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0289, "after": 0.023 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0346, "after": 0.0275 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0007, "big_chances_created": 0.0005, "xgot": 0.0001, "ball_carries": 10.8067, "total_progression": 20.136, "progressive_carries": 0.0443, "key_pass": 0.3092, "shots_off_target": 0.4732, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1531, "fifa_rank": 680.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0808, "tackles": 1.2452, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "clearances": 6.0494, "aerial_won": 2.128, "total_shots": 0.4788, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1208, "accurate_pass": 34.1614, "duels_won": 4.0964, "total_long_balls": 5.3679, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8229, "total_own_half_passes": 28.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1133, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0481, "crosses_total": 0.0044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6088, "possession_lost": 6.5662, "dispossessed": 0.2044, "duels_lost": 2.4579, "aerial_lost": 0.7407, "total_contest": 0.1247, "won_contest": 0.1247, "ball_recovery": 3.5618, "challenges_lost": 0.3868, "fouls": 1.1389, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "blocks": 1.0277, 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"totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1507 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0789 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0548 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0522 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0455 } ], "others": -0.1235, "total": 1.4323, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104068 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.050415 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.034757 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.033143 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.028853 } ], "others_margin": -0.082731 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3701238632202148, "model_output": 1.3701, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5315 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0797 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0667 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0271 } ], "others": 0.1549, "total": 1.3701, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.531505 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.07972 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.066732 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.030133 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.027133 } ], "others_margin": 0.154821 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.944103240966797, "model_output": 6.9441, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0603 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": 0.0077, "total": 6.9441, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.060324 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.027366 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.018972 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.018254 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014212 } ], "others_margin": 0.007755 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2173, "tackles": 1.7549, "tackles_won": 1.0305, "clearances": 4.7473, "aerial_won": 1.4502, "total_shots": 1.3873, "rating": 6.9441, "minutes": 87.94, "total_pass": 51.1833, "accurate_pass": 42.8918, "duels_won": 3.9218, "total_long_balls": 7.8335, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9167, "total_own_half_passes": 30.869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.9578, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3143, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9342, "crosses_total": 0.0215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.079, "possession_lost": 9.7831, "dispossessed": 0.3253, "duels_lost": 3.815, "aerial_lost": 1.1523, "total_contest": 1.0826, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 4.9031, "challenges_lost": 0.4932, "fouls": 1.3427, "fouls_drawn": 0.1831, "blocks": 0.4394, "goals": 0.0034, 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"after": 1.3771 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3427, "after": 1.333 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2173, "after": 1.209 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0305, "after": 1.0243 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5214, "after": 0.5155 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.209, "tackles": 1.7549, "tackles_won": 1.0243, "clearances": 4.7473, "aerial_won": 1.4502, "total_shots": 1.3813, "rating": 6.9441, "minutes": 87.94, "total_pass": 51.1833, "accurate_pass": 42.8918, "duels_won": 3.9218, "total_long_balls": 7.8335, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9167, "total_own_half_passes": 30.869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.9578, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3143, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9342, "crosses_total": 0.0213, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.079, "possession_lost": 9.7831, "dispossessed": 0.3253, "duels_lost": 3.815, "aerial_lost": 1.1523, 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"fouls_drawn": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.4394, "goal_rate": 0.0034, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0788, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1259, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "shots_on_target": 0.5155, "big_chances_created": 0.0033, "xgot": 0.064, "ball_carries": 13.6803, "total_progression": 53.1196, "progressive_carries": 0.9311, "key_pass": 0.71, "shots_off_target": 0.8658, "opponent_faced": "Dango Ouattara", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 1.3706, xG scale 0.7945, xA scale 0.7945, team xA 0.76 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.209, "tackles": 1.7549, "tackles_won": 1.0243, "clearances": 4.7473, "aerial_won": 1.4502, "total_shots": 1.3813, "rating": 6.9441, "minutes": 87.94, "total_pass": 51.1833, "accurate_pass": 42.8918, "duels_won": 3.9218, "total_long_balls": 7.8335, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9167, "total_own_half_passes": 30.869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.9578, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3143, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9342, "crosses_total": 0.0213, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.079, "possession_lost": 9.7831, "dispossessed": 0.3253, "duels_lost": 3.815, "aerial_lost": 1.1523, "total_contest": 1.0826, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 4.9031, "challenges_lost": 0.4932, "fouls": 1.333, "fouls_drawn": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.4394, "goal_rate": 0.0034, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0788, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.5155, "big_chances_created": 0.0033, "xgot": 0.0508, "ball_carries": 13.6803, "total_progression": 53.1196, "progressive_carries": 0.9311, "key_pass": 0.71, "shots_off_target": 0.8658, "opponent_faced": "Dango Ouattara", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2469 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.089, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3706, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9608, "team_expected_assists": 0.7634, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.701, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7945, "xa_scale": 0.7945, "opponent_lambda": 1.692, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1259, "after": 0.1 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0533, "after": 0.0423 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0057, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1154, "expected_assists": 0.0886, "assists": 0.0865, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "expected_goals": 0.1213, "goals": 0.1195, "goal_rate": 0.1195, "shots_on_target": 0.3823, "total_shots": 1.1667, "rating": 6.8537, "minutes": 81.62, "total_pass": 31.7867, "accurate_pass": 26.8726, "duels_won": 5.1837, "total_long_balls": 1.8828, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9899, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8813, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9914, "crosses_total": 2.1344, "crosses_accurate": 0.6017, "touches": 51.3038, "possession_lost": 8.6842, "dispossessed": 0.0659, "duels_lost": 4.8581, "aerial_won": 1.9692, "aerial_lost": 1.8698, "interceptions": 0.3969, "tackles_won": 1.6326, "tackles": 2.7537, "clearances": 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0.9899, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8813, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9914, "crosses_total": 2.1276, "crosses_accurate": 0.6017, "touches": 51.3038, "possession_lost": 8.6842, "dispossessed": 0.0659, "duels_lost": 4.8581, "aerial_won": 1.9692, "aerial_lost": 1.8698, "interceptions": 0.4004, "tackles_won": 1.6322, "tackles": 2.7537, "clearances": 2.7999, "total_contest": 0.8694, "won_contest": 0.1773, "challenges_lost": 0.777, "fouls": 1.5127, "fouls_drawn": 0.2827, "blocks": 0.0022, "big_chances_created": 0.4696, "big_chances_missed": 0.3314, "xgot": 0.0853, "ball_carries": 7.1975, "total_progression": 15.4536, "progressive_carries": 0.3592, "shots_off_target": 0.7843 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0032, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9069, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": 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2.7537, "clearances": 2.7999, "total_contest": 0.8694, "won_contest": 0.1773, "challenges_lost": 0.777, "fouls": 1.5127, "fouls_drawn": 0.2827, "blocks": 0.0022, "big_chances_created": 0.4696, "big_chances_missed": 0.3314, "xgot": 0.0853, "ball_carries": 7.1975, "total_progression": 15.4536, "progressive_carries": 0.3592, "shots_off_target": 0.7843 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1154, "expected_assists": 0.0886, "assists": 0.0862, "assist_rate": 0.0862, "expected_goals": 0.1212, "goals": 0.119, "goal_rate": 0.119, "shots_on_target": 0.3855, "total_shots": 1.1714, "rating": 6.8537, "minutes": 81.62, "total_pass": 31.7867, "accurate_pass": 26.8726, "duels_won": 5.1837, "total_long_balls": 1.8828, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9899, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8813, 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Janelt", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Vitaly Janelt", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.449, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.999, "skill_edge": 0.0033, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.6821, "defender_skill": 0.6747, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "market_value": 21000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.6747 } ], "xg_override": 0.1212 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.9692, "after": 1.1 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1154, "expected_assists": 0.0886, "assist_rate": 0.0862, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1212, "goal_rate": 0.119, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3855, "total_shots": 1.1714, "rating": 6.8537, "minutes": 81.62, "total_pass": 31.7867, "accurate_pass": 26.8726, "duels_won": 5.1837, "total_long_balls": 1.8828, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9899, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8813, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9914, "crosses_total": 2.1276, "crosses_accurate": 0.6017, "touches": 51.3038, "possession_lost": 8.6842, "dispossessed": 0.0659, "duels_lost": 4.8581, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.8698, "interceptions": 0.4004, "tackles_won": 1.6322, "tackles": 2.7537, "clearances": 2.7999, "total_contest": 0.8694, "won_contest": 0.1773, "challenges_lost": 0.777, "fouls": 1.5127, "fouls_drawn": 0.2827, "blocks": 0.0022, "big_chances_created": 0.4696, "big_chances_missed": 0.3311, "xgot": 0.0852, "ball_carries": 7.1975, 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"expected_goals": 0.0963, "goal_rate": 0.119, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3855, "total_shots": 1.1714, "rating": 6.8537, "minutes": 81.62, "total_pass": 31.7867, "accurate_pass": 26.8726, "duels_won": 5.1837, "total_long_balls": 1.8828, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9899, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8813, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9914, "crosses_total": 2.1276, "crosses_accurate": 0.6017, "touches": 51.3038, "possession_lost": 8.6842, "dispossessed": 0.0659, "duels_lost": 4.8581, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.8698, "interceptions": 0.4004, "tackles_won": 1.6322, "tackles": 2.7537, "clearances": 2.7999, "total_contest": 0.8694, "won_contest": 0.1773, "challenges_lost": 0.777, "fouls": 1.5127, "fouls_drawn": 0.2827, "blocks": 0.0022, "big_chances_created": 0.4696, "big_chances_missed": 0.3311, "xgot": 0.0677, "ball_carries": 7.1975, "total_progression": 15.4536, "progressive_carries": 0.3592, 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"2026-10-23", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1543, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-18", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1312, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1115, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0948, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0806, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0685, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0582, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0495, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0421, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0357, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.3641, "expectedGoals": 0.0606, "creative_index": 0.6277, "expectedAssists": 0.1127, "keyPass": 1.4003 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.2640612125396729, "model_output": 1.2641, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1583 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1351 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0716 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.028 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8899, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1175 }, { "name": 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"importance": 0.0324 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0322 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0055 } ], "others": 0.0028, "total": 0.0954, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463734, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.083985 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.076281 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.071801 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065032 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.06166 } ], "others_margin": 0.029464 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08026490360498428, "model_output": 0.0803, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1242 }, { "name": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0655 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0947, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": -0.011, "total": 0.0884, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.357331, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.181765 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.124778 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.084913 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.05427 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.039271 } ], "others_margin": -0.117447 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.32507675886154175, "model_output": 0.3251, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0675 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0583 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": -0.0374, "total": 0.3251, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.19269 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140905 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.110771 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054797 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.036141 } ], "others_margin": -0.108849 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.172734260559082, "model_output": 1.1727, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2696 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1344 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0463 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0358 } ], "others": -0.0825, "total": 1.1727, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.269579 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134364 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.048425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04625 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.035821 } ], "others_margin": -0.082443 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.913418292999268, "model_output": 6.9134, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": 0.0115, "total": 6.9134, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034163 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.029271 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019693 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013426 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011282 } ], "others_margin": 0.011527 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0069, quality 0.629)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2728, "expected_assists": 0.1292, "assists": 0.0961, "assist_rate": 0.0961, "expected_goals": 0.0808, "goals": 0.089, "goal_rate": 0.089, "shots_on_target": 0.3273, "total_shots": 1.1809, "rating": 6.9134, "minutes": 85.41, "total_pass": 42.5887, "accurate_pass": 33.9024, "duels_won": 5.1247, "total_long_balls": 5.477, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5968, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3468, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.5558, "crosses_total": 3.3421, "crosses_accurate": 0.9821, "touches": 61.1646, "possession_lost": 14.2488, "dispossessed": 0.8969, "duels_lost": 4.0431, "aerial_won": 0.4062, "aerial_lost": 0.5539, "interceptions": 0.7964, "tackles_won": 1.5309, "tackles": 2.5225, "clearances": 1.3262, "total_contest": 0.707, "won_contest": 0.3859, "challenges_lost": 1.2515, "fouls": 1.0198, "fouls_drawn": 1.8102, "blocks": 0.0513, "big_chances_created": 0.1642, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 15.1156, "total_progression": 71.7544, "progressive_carries": 1.6012, "shots_off_target": 0.8535 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19800000, "quality_factor": 0.6291, "boost_factor": 1.0069, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2728, "expected_assists": 0.1292, "assists": 0.0947, "assist_rate": 0.0947, "expected_goals": 0.0808, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.3226, "total_shots": 1.1638, "rating": 6.9134, "minutes": 85.41, "total_pass": 42.5887, "accurate_pass": 33.9024, "duels_won": 5.1247, "total_long_balls": 5.477, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5968, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3468, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.5558, "crosses_total": 3.3471, "crosses_accurate": 0.9821, "touches": 61.1646, "possession_lost": 14.2488, "dispossessed": 0.8969, "duels_lost": 4.0431, "aerial_won": 0.4062, "aerial_lost": 0.5539, "interceptions": 0.7849, "tackles_won": 1.524, "tackles": 2.5225, "clearances": 1.3262, "total_contest": 0.707, "won_contest": 0.3859, "challenges_lost": 1.2515, "fouls": 1.0051, "fouls_drawn": 1.8145, "blocks": 0.0513, "big_chances_created": 0.1642, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 15.1156, "total_progression": 71.7544, "progressive_carries": 1.6012, "shots_off_target": 0.8535 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.949, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0061, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9884, "tackles": 2.0069, "tackles_won": 1.2354, "clearances": 2.5065, "aerial_won": 0.871, "total_shots": 1.0133, "rating": 6.8339, "minutes": 88.57, "total_pass": 32.674, "accurate_pass": 25.9922, "duels_won": 4.798, "total_long_balls": 4.1186, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7127, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5513, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1353, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.857, "crosses_total": 5.7902, "crosses_accurate": 1.6797, "touches": 59.3948, "possession_lost": 14.7955, "dispossessed": 0.5989, "duels_lost": 3.9195, "aerial_lost": 1.155, "total_contest": 1.1198, "won_contest": 0.412, "ball_recovery": 4.934, "challenges_lost": 0.6622, "fouls": 0.8758, "fouls_drawn": 1.2472, "blocks": 0.3105, "goals": 0.1865, 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{ "match_id": 14023925, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.5512, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 313, "combined_rank_score": 215.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 273.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1057, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lorenzo Reyes", "ranking": 308 }, { "player_name": "Donyell Malen", "ranking": 309 }, { "player_name": "Josh Wilson-Esbrand", "ranking": 310 }, { "player_name": "Choi Jun-yeong", "ranking": 311 }, { "player_name": "Wladimiro Falcone", "ranking": 312 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bojan Ciger", "ranking": 314 }, { "player_name": "Juan Musso", "ranking": 315 }, { "player_name": "Ju-kong Kim", "ranking": 316 }, { "player_name": "Jae-yong Bak", "ranking": 317 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Mbeumo", "ranking": 318 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", 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"margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.577108 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.168768 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.124673 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.114534 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.065345 } ], "others_margin": 0.240818 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.105690002441406, "model_output": 7.1057, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0935 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0745 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": 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"params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Vitaly Janelt", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.063, "skill_edge": 0.0949, "height_edge": -0.052, "attacker_skill": 0.8855, "defender_skill": 0.6747, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "market_value": 21000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.6747 } ], "xg_override": 0.2622 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.47, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2961, "after": 2.4408 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4796, "after": 1.5728 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8164, "after": 0.8678 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4621, "after": 0.4912 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2467, "after": 0.2622 }, 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1.2475790977478027, "model_output": 1.2476, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2462 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1338 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1011 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.1012 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.099 } ], "others": 0.0704, "total": 1.2476, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.30365 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.133053 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.089944 }, { "name": "touches_p90", 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0.0874, "key_pass": 1.2563, "rating": 6.8649, "minutes": 72.71, "total_pass": 24.9855, "accurate_pass": 22.1, "duels_won": 1.9413, "total_long_balls": 1.7028, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0946, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.066, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8428, "crosses_total": 3.0429, "crosses_accurate": 0.7216, "touches": 36.6821, "possession_lost": 8.2869, "dispossessed": 0.6289, "duels_lost": 2.2392, "aerial_lost": 0.2278, "total_contest": 1.6072, "won_contest": 1.0266, "ball_recovery": 2.5307, "challenges_lost": 0.3683, "fouls": 0.486, "fouls_drawn": 0.5329, "assists": 0.305, "assist_rate": 0.305, "interceptions": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.2457, "tackles": 0.334, "clearances": 0.729, "blocks": 0.0136, "big_chances_created": 0.234, "big_chances_missed": 0.0773, "xgot": 0.0855, "offsides": 0.1603, "ball_carries": 15.0397, "total_progression": 107.6504, "progressive_carries": 4.9972, "shots_off_target": 0.8078, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9033, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, 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"keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1877 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0674 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.024 } ], "others": -0.0481, "total": 0.6579, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.239395 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079537 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.064106 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044986 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.033392 } ], "others_margin": -0.070641 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.840335845947266, "model_output": 6.8403, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 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"minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3365, "goals": 0.2868, "goal_rate": 0.2868, "shots_on_target": 0.8165, "total_shots": 2.3616, "expected_assists": 0.062, "key_pass": 0.6643, "rating": 6.8403, "minutes": 81.57, "total_pass": 13.3818, "accurate_pass": 8.6332, "duels_won": 4.8078, "total_long_balls": 0.1211, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0227, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6957, "crosses_total": 0.3107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.0797, "possession_lost": 10.2349, "dispossessed": 1.3005, "duels_lost": 6.8562, "aerial_lost": 2.4576, "total_contest": 2.0013, "won_contest": 1.2037, "ball_recovery": 1.8448, "challenges_lost": 0.3406, "fouls": 1.9598, "fouls_drawn": 1.3176, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3686, 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}, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3392, "goals": 0.2886, "goal_rate": 0.2886, "shots_on_target": 0.8217, "total_shots": 2.382, "expected_assists": 0.062, "key_pass": 0.6643, "rating": 6.8403, "minutes": 81.57, "total_pass": 13.3818, "accurate_pass": 8.6332, "duels_won": 4.8078, "total_long_balls": 0.1211, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0227, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6957, "crosses_total": 0.3102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.0797, "possession_lost": 10.2349, "dispossessed": 1.3005, "duels_lost": 6.8562, "aerial_lost": 2.4576, "total_contest": 2.0013, "won_contest": 1.2037, "ball_recovery": 1.8448, "challenges_lost": 0.3406, "fouls": 1.9566, "fouls_drawn": 1.3155, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.368, "tackles": 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"contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0156 } ], "others": -0.0042, "total": -0.0359, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023525, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.027284 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.021304 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.01998 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.018553 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.015575 } ], "others_margin": -0.004189 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.028229713439941, "model_output": 7.0282, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9898, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.018 } ], "others": -0.0359, "total": 7.0282, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.989751, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030813 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025044 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.022393 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.021875 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.018029 } ], "others_margin": -0.035923 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4785, "fifa_rank": 4745.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } } ] }, "Ousmane Diomande": { "player_id": 1394342, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 190, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7316, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0018, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8897, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363889, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363638, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1131, "combined_rank_score": 506.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 421.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9222, "sofascore_appearances": 9.0, "fifa_rank": 592.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7316, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ousmane Diomande", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mathew Ryan", "ranking": 1126 }, { "player_name": "Johan Manzambi", "ranking": 1127 }, { "player_name": "Rasul Yuldashev", "ranking": 1128 }, { "player_name": "Muhammad Yuldashev", "ranking": 1129 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Morales", "ranking": 1130 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rui Silva", "ranking": 1132 }, { "player_name": "Abror Karimov", "ranking": 1133 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Guerrero", "ranking": 1134 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Urzi", "ranking": 1135 }, { "player_name": "Ander Barrenetxea", "ranking": 1136 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.562, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", 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"contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0251, "total": 6.7316, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016004 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.014033 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010913 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.007155 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.006759 } ], "others_margin": -0.025076 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5682, "tackles": 0.6197, "tackles_won": 0.3598, "clearances": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 1.1077, "total_shots": 0.228, "rating": 6.7316, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2279, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 1.3706, xG scale 0.7945, xA scale 0.7945, team xA 0.76 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5682, "tackles": 0.6197, "tackles_won": 0.3598, "clearances": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 1.1077, "total_shots": 0.228, "rating": 6.7316, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2279, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8897 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.089, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3706, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9608, "team_expected_assists": 0.7634, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.701, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7945, "xa_scale": 0.7945, "opponent_lambda": 1.692, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.364 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0564, "after": 0.0163 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.940631 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.062204 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.048482 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.040764 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.036123 } ], "others_margin": -0.133183 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4977462887763977, "model_output": 0.4977, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7156 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.018 } ], "others": -0.0562, "total": 0.4977, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.735448 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.070396 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.037624 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.033248 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.032043 } ], "others_margin": -0.106886 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.23152445256710052, "model_output": 0.2315, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2477 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.014, "total": 0.2315, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.247722 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.017917 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.014366 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009923 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009295 } ], "others_margin": -0.013898 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.796070098876953, "model_output": 6.7961, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0004, "total": 6.7961, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.016893 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012599 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011577 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009527 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009137 } ], "others_margin": -0.000401 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0048, quality 0.594)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4647, "tackles": 0.7099, "tackles_won": 0.4914, "clearances": 1.1032, "aerial_won": 0.5001, "total_shots": 0.2326, "rating": 6.7961, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 34.7337, "accurate_pass": 27.4917, "duels_won": 5.9589, "total_long_balls": 4.131, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6938, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1405, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.709, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7827, "crosses_total": 1.7441, "crosses_accurate": 0.3167, "touches": 59.3002, "possession_lost": 14.5931, "dispossessed": 0.8923, "duels_lost": 4.031, "aerial_lost": 0.8165, "total_contest": 1.6402, "won_contest": 0.9626, "ball_recovery": 3.825, "challenges_lost": 0.799, "fouls": 0.8875, "fouls_drawn": 1.3229, "blocks": 0.057, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.0876, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 11.5076, "total_progression": 39.0441, "progressive_carries": 0.8452, "key_pass": 0.5548, "shots_off_target": 0.145 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16399999, "quality_factor": 0.5942, "boost_factor": 1.0048, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0139)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4598, "tackles": 0.7099, "tackles_won": 0.4861, "clearances": 1.1032, "aerial_won": 0.5001, "total_shots": 0.2325, "rating": 6.7961, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 34.7337, "accurate_pass": 27.4917, "duels_won": 5.9589, "total_long_balls": 4.131, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6938, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1405, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.709, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7827, "crosses_total": 1.7291, "crosses_accurate": 0.3167, "touches": 59.3002, "possession_lost": 14.5931, "dispossessed": 0.8923, "duels_lost": 4.031, "aerial_lost": 0.8165, "total_contest": 1.6402, "won_contest": 0.9626, "ball_recovery": 3.825, "challenges_lost": 0.799, "fouls": 0.8798, "fouls_drawn": 1.3076, "blocks": 0.057, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 11.5076, "total_progression": 39.0441, "progressive_carries": 0.8452, "key_pass": 0.5548, "shots_off_target": 0.145 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0139, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.3229, "after": 1.3076 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.7441, "after": 1.7291 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8875, "after": 0.8798 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4914, "after": 0.4861 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 14.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3626, "tackles": 0.5598, "tackles_won": 0.3833, "clearances": 0.8699, "aerial_won": 0.3943, "total_shots": 0.1837, "rating": 6.7961, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 27.3879, "accurate_pass": 21.6775, "duels_won": 4.6987, "total_long_balls": 3.2573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3356, "total_own_half_passes": 14.304, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5982, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0839, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0793, "crosses_total": 1.3634, "crosses_accurate": 0.2497, "touches": 46.7588, "possession_lost": 11.5068, "dispossessed": 0.8923, "duels_lost": 3.1785, "aerial_lost": 0.8165, "total_contest": 1.2933, "won_contest": 0.759, "ball_recovery": 3.016, "challenges_lost": 0.799, "fouls": 0.6937, "fouls_drawn": 1.0311, "blocks": 0.0449, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "expected_assists": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.0694, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "ball_carries": 9.0739, "total_progression": 30.7867, "progressive_carries": 0.6664, "key_pass": 0.4375, "shots_off_target": 0.1143, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.19, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7885, "appearance_probability": 0.23 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3626, "tackles": 0.5598, "tackles_won": 0.3833, "clearances": 0.8699, "aerial_won": 0.3943, "total_shots": 0.1837, "rating": 6.7961, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 27.3879, "accurate_pass": 21.6775, "duels_won": 4.6987, "total_long_balls": 3.2573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3356, "total_own_half_passes": 14.304, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5982, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0839, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0793, "crosses_total": 1.3634, "crosses_accurate": 0.2497, "touches": 46.7588, "possession_lost": 11.5068, "dispossessed": 0.8923, "duels_lost": 3.1785, "aerial_lost": 0.8165, "total_contest": 1.2933, "won_contest": 0.759, "ball_recovery": 3.016, "challenges_lost": 0.799, "fouls": 0.6937, "fouls_drawn": 1.0311, "blocks": 0.0449, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "expected_assists": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.0694, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "ball_carries": 9.0739, "total_progression": 30.7867, "progressive_carries": 0.6664, "key_pass": 0.4375, "shots_off_target": 0.1143, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3626, "tackles": 0.5598, "tackles_won": 0.3833, "clearances": 0.8699, "aerial_won": 0.3943, "total_shots": 0.1837, "rating": 6.7961, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 27.3879, "accurate_pass": 21.6775, "duels_won": 4.6987, "total_long_balls": 3.2573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3356, "total_own_half_passes": 14.304, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5982, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0839, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0793, "crosses_total": 1.3634, "crosses_accurate": 0.2497, "touches": 46.7588, "possession_lost": 11.5068, "dispossessed": 0.8923, "duels_lost": 3.1785, "aerial_lost": 0.8165, "total_contest": 1.2933, "won_contest": 0.759, "ball_recovery": 3.016, "challenges_lost": 0.799, "fouls": 0.6937, "fouls_drawn": 1.0311, "blocks": 0.0449, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "expected_assists": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.0694, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "ball_carries": 9.0739, "total_progression": 30.7867, "progressive_carries": 0.6664, "key_pass": 0.4375, "shots_off_target": 0.1143, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.23, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1406 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0354 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0048 } ], "others": 0.0104, "total": 0.1444, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.584459 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.22298 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.092416 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.071498 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.035531 } ], "others_margin": 0.075462 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4595325291156769, "model_output": 0.4595, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3858 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1994 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0196 } ], "others": 0.0356, "total": 0.4595, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.385768 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.199381 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.037102 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.02932 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.019583 } ], "others_margin": 0.035586 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7422871589660645, "model_output": 6.7423, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0861 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 6.7423, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086149 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027552 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012511 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008717 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.008235 } ], "others_margin": -0.00446 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0082, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8862, "expected_assists": 0.1001, "assists": 0.0899, "assist_rate": 0.0899, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "goals": 0.0304, "goal_rate": 0.0304, "shots_on_target": 0.1456, "total_shots": 0.4633, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 25.83, "total_pass": 8.4469, "accurate_pass": 6.9003, "duels_won": 1.8721, "total_long_balls": 0.5687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2879, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.656, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4247, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2444, "crosses_total": 3.3191, "crosses_accurate": 0.9088, "touches": 18.7407, "possession_lost": 6.0449, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.3201, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.088, "tackles_won": 0.2041, "tackles": 0.3556, "clearances": 0.2181, "total_contest": 1.4219, "won_contest": 0.933, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2993, "fouls_drawn": 0.5835, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1848, "big_chances_missed": 0.0774, "xgot": 0.0421, "ball_carries": 7.4698, "total_progression": 50.9648, "progressive_carries": 1.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.3177 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0082, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.8 to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7898, "expected_assists": 0.0892, "assists": 0.0801, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "expected_goals": 0.024, "goals": 0.0271, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "shots_on_target": 0.1298, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2831, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.02, "projection_minutes": 25.83, "minutes_scale": 0.8912, "appearance_probability": 0.546 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7898, "expected_assists": 0.0892, "assists": 0.0801, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "expected_goals": 0.024, "goals": 0.0271, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "shots_on_target": 0.1298, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2831, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7898, "expected_assists": 0.0892, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.024, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1298, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2831, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 1.3706, xG scale 0.7945, xA scale 0.7945, team xA 0.76 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7898, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1298, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2831, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0419, "creation_factor": 0.9346 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.089, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3706, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9608, "team_expected_assists": 0.7634, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.701, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7945, "xa_scale": 0.7945, "opponent_lambda": 1.692, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.546 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.024, "after": 0.0104 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0892, "after": 0.0387 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7898, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1298, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2831, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0419, "creation_factor": 0.9346, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3283, "fifa_rank": 1796.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7898, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1298, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2831, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0103, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0419, "creation_factor": 0.9346, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0103, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "scorer_weight": 0.0108, "squad_weight_total": 1.0339, "weight_share": 0.0105, 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"contribution": -0.2066 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0344 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0283 } ], "others": -0.0505, "total": 0.3204, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.312119 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.206641 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034369 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.029449 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028275 } ], "others_margin": -0.050483 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.722048759460449, "model_output": 6.722, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], 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"bench_appearance_probability": 0.323, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.323, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066293 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016193 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.015479 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013406 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.011825 } ], "others_margin": 0.000837 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0098, quality 0.746)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1352, "goals": 0.1077, "goal_rate": 0.1077, "shots_on_target": 0.3038, "total_shots": 1.2069, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "key_pass": 0.4332, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 17.29, "total_pass": 3.8052, "accurate_pass": 2.8232, "duels_won": 2.1008, "total_long_balls": 0.2725, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2717, "crosses_total": 0.7919, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 10.5696, "possession_lost": 3.3379, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 1.6286, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.585, "won_contest": 0.1995, "ball_recovery": 0.6551, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3598, "fouls_drawn": 1.2517, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0514, "tackles_won": 0.2533, "tackles": 0.3574, "clearances": 0.408, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0756, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0048, "offsides": 0.5297, "ball_carries": 3.3212, "total_progression": 19.3621, "progressive_carries": 0.788, "shots_off_target": 0.9031 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 34000000, "quality_factor": 0.7455, "boost_factor": 1.0098, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0082)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1352, "goals": 0.1079, "goal_rate": 0.1079, "shots_on_target": 0.3024, "total_shots": 1.2004, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "key_pass": 0.4332, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 17.29, "total_pass": 3.8052, "accurate_pass": 2.8232, "duels_won": 2.1008, "total_long_balls": 0.2725, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2717, "crosses_total": 0.7854, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 10.5696, "possession_lost": 3.3379, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 1.6286, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.585, "won_contest": 0.1995, "ball_recovery": 0.6551, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3602, "fouls_drawn": 1.2437, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0521, "tackles_won": 0.2512, "tackles": 0.3574, "clearances": 0.408, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0756, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0048, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 3.3212, "total_progression": 19.3621, "progressive_carries": 0.788, "shots_off_target": 0.9031 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0082, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1921, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2517, "after": 1.2437 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2069, "after": 1.2004 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.7919, "after": 0.7854 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.3 to 26.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2028, "goals": 0.1618, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.51, "projection_minutes": 17.29, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.359 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2028, "goals": 0.1618, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2028, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 1.3706, xG scale 0.7945, xA scale 0.7945, team xA 0.76 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0021, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8378, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.089, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3706, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9608, "team_expected_assists": 0.7634, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.701, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7945, "xa_scale": 0.7945, "opponent_lambda": 1.692, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.359 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2028, "after": 0.0578 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0759, "after": 0.0216 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0021, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8378, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1963, "fifa_rank": 1432.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0021, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0534, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8378, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0534, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "scorer_weight": 0.0484, "squad_weight_total": 1.0339, "weight_share": 0.0468, "finishing_factor": 0.8378, "appearance_weight": 0.359, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0021, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0534, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.021, "finishing_factor": 0.8378, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.021, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0173, "squad_weight_total": 0.6878, "weight_share": 0.0251, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.359, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Igor Jesus": { "player_id": 981619, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 179, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1269, "goal_rate": 0.179, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7031, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.0478, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2957, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363869, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1585, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1316, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363638, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363254, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7361, "expected_assists": 0.04, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, 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"England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1824, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham 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"season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1372, "expected_assists": 0.0557, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3083, "combined_rank_score": 1050.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1403.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7031, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Igor Jesus", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Javi Galán", "ranking": 3078 }, { "player_name": "Matt O'Riley", "ranking": 3079 }, { "player_name": "Joshua King", "ranking": 3080 }, { "player_name": "Aitor Ruibal", "ranking": 3081 }, { "player_name": "Artem Bondarenko", "ranking": 3082 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luis Rioja", "ranking": 3084 }, { "player_name": "Roberto Alvarado", "ranking": 3085 }, { "player_name": "Callum Wilson", "ranking": 3086 }, { "player_name": "Victor Lindelöf", "ranking": 3087 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Bobb", "ranking": 3088 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": 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-0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.457753 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.055695 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.048799 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.039557 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.02414 } ], "others_margin": -0.060819 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.703112602233887, "model_output": 6.7031, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0627 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0355, "total": 6.7031, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0627 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.019914 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009218 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.00861 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.008501 } ], "others_margin": -0.035498 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"shots_off_target": 0.5766, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.28, "projection_minutes": 26.02, "minutes_scale": 1.0098, "appearance_probability": 0.354 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1269, "goals": 0.179, "goal_rate": 0.179, "shots_on_target": 0.3898, "total_shots": 0.9665, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "key_pass": 0.3722, "rating": 6.7031, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 9.3537, "accurate_pass": 8.1919, "duels_won": 2.3946, "total_long_balls": 0.1282, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1282, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3916, "crosses_total": 0.3622, "crosses_accurate": 0.1091, "touches": 14.9402, "possession_lost": 3.0478, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 2.6013, "aerial_lost": 1.0157, "total_contest": 0.1776, "won_contest": 0.1776, "ball_recovery": 1.3738, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.7107, "fouls_drawn": 0.5749, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4327, "tackles": 0.7095, "clearances": 0.3134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3911, "xgot": 0.2957, "offsides": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 5.0336, "total_progression": 28.3428, "progressive_carries": 0.9076, "shots_off_target": 0.5766, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1269, "goal_rate": 0.179, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3898, "total_shots": 0.9665, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "key_pass": 0.3722, "rating": 6.7031, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 9.3537, "accurate_pass": 8.1919, "duels_won": 2.3946, "total_long_balls": 0.1282, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1282, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3916, "crosses_total": 0.3622, "crosses_accurate": 0.1091, "touches": 14.9402, "possession_lost": 3.0478, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 2.6013, "aerial_lost": 1.0157, "total_contest": 0.1776, "won_contest": 0.1776, "ball_recovery": 1.3738, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.7107, "fouls_drawn": 0.5749, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4327, "tackles": 0.7095, "clearances": 0.3134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3911, "xgot": 0.2957, "offsides": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 5.0336, "total_progression": 28.3428, "progressive_carries": 0.9076, "shots_off_target": 0.5766, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.354, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1269, "goal_rate": 0.179, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3898, "total_shots": 0.9665, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "key_pass": 0.3722, "rating": 6.7031, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 9.3537, "accurate_pass": 8.1919, "duels_won": 2.3946, "total_long_balls": 0.1282, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1282, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3916, "crosses_total": 0.3622, "crosses_accurate": 0.1091, "touches": 14.9402, "possession_lost": 3.0478, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 2.6013, "aerial_lost": 1.0157, "total_contest": 0.1776, "won_contest": 0.1776, "ball_recovery": 1.3738, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.7107, "fouls_drawn": 0.5749, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4327, "tackles": 0.7095, "clearances": 0.3134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3911, "xgot": 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3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1963, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023943, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0905, "expected_assists": 0.2771, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023925, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "expected_assists": 0.0976, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025041, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0958, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025025, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024020, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0809, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3858 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1994 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0196 } ], "others": 0.0356, "total": 0.4595, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.385768 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.199381 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.037102 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.02932 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.019583 } ], "others_margin": 0.035586 } 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"possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008717 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.008235 } ], "others_margin": -0.00446 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0082, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8862, "expected_assists": 0.1001, "assists": 0.0899, "assist_rate": 0.0899, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "goals": 0.0304, "goal_rate": 0.0304, "shots_on_target": 0.1456, "total_shots": 0.4633, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 25.83, "total_pass": 8.4469, "accurate_pass": 6.9003, "duels_won": 1.8721, "total_long_balls": 0.5687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2879, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.656, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4247, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2444, "crosses_total": 3.3191, "crosses_accurate": 0.9088, "touches": 18.7407, "possession_lost": 6.0449, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.3201, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.088, "tackles_won": 0.2041, "tackles": 0.3556, "clearances": 0.2181, "total_contest": 1.4219, "won_contest": 0.933, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2993, "fouls_drawn": 0.5835, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1848, "big_chances_missed": 0.0774, "xgot": 0.0421, "ball_carries": 7.4698, "total_progression": 50.9648, "progressive_carries": 1.4942, "shots_off_target": 0.3177 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0082, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.8 to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7898, "expected_assists": 0.0892, "assists": 0.0801, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "expected_goals": 0.024, "goals": 0.0271, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "shots_on_target": 0.1298, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2831, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.02, "projection_minutes": 25.83, "minutes_scale": 0.8912, "appearance_probability": 0.546 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7898, "expected_assists": 0.0892, "assists": 0.0801, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "expected_goals": 0.024, "goals": 0.0271, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "shots_on_target": 0.1298, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2831, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7898, "expected_assists": 0.0892, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.024, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1298, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2831, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 1.3706, xG scale 0.7945, xA scale 0.7945, team xA 0.76 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7898, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1298, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2831, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0419, "creation_factor": 0.9346 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.089, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3706, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9608, "team_expected_assists": 0.7634, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.701, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7945, "xa_scale": 0.7945, "opponent_lambda": 1.692, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.546 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.024, "after": 0.0104 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0892, "after": 0.0387 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7898, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1298, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2831, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0419, "creation_factor": 0.9346, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3283, "fifa_rank": 1796.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7898, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1298, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2831, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0103, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0419, "creation_factor": 0.9346, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0103, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "scorer_weight": 0.0108, "squad_weight_total": 1.0339, "weight_share": 0.0105, "finishing_factor": 1.0419, "appearance_weight": 0.546, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7898, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1298, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2831, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0103, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0374, "finishing_factor": 1.0419, "creation_factor": 0.9346, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0374, "assist_rate": 0.0801, "provider_weight": 0.0362, "squad_weight_total": 0.6878, "weight_share": 0.0526, "creation_factor": 0.9346, "appearance_weight": 0.546, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Ousmane Diomande": { "player_id": 1394342, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 190, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7316, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0018, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8897, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363889, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 57, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 4, 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"others_margin": 0.02761 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17932261526584625, "model_output": 0.1793, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2411 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0077 } ], "others": -0.061, "total": 0.1793, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.241075 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.012356 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010657 }, { "name": "rating", 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010913 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.007155 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.006759 } ], "others_margin": -0.025076 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0443, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4668, "tackles": 0.5091, "tackles_won": 0.2956, "clearances": 2.0312, "aerial_won": 0.91, "total_shots": 0.1873, "rating": 6.7316, "minutes": 12.33, "total_pass": 34.1094, "accurate_pass": 29.7544, "duels_won": 3.971, "total_long_balls": 3.2317, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6036, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7481, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.291, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3613, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4634, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.5764, "possession_lost": 4.528, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.26, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.1729, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 4.9418, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 0.8496, "fouls_drawn": 0.1729, "blocks": 0.8973, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1917, "total_progression": 36.1885, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1872 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0443, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.3 to 15.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5682, "tackles": 0.6197, "tackles_won": 0.3598, "clearances": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 1.1077, "total_shots": 0.228, "rating": 6.7316, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2279, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.01, "projection_minutes": 12.33, "minutes_scale": 1.2173, "appearance_probability": 0.364 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5682, "tackles": 0.6197, "tackles_won": 0.3598, "clearances": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 1.1077, "total_shots": 0.228, "rating": 6.7316, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2279, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5682, "tackles": 0.6197, "tackles_won": 0.3598, "clearances": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 1.1077, "total_shots": 0.228, "rating": 6.7316, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2279, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 1.3706, xG scale 0.7945, xA scale 0.7945, team xA 0.76 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5682, "tackles": 0.6197, "tackles_won": 0.3598, "clearances": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 1.1077, "total_shots": 0.228, "rating": 6.7316, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2279, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8897 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.089, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3706, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9608, "team_expected_assists": 0.7634, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.701, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7945, "xa_scale": 0.7945, "opponent_lambda": 1.692, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.364 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0564, "after": 0.0163 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5682, "tackles": 0.6197, "tackles_won": 0.3598, "clearances": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 1.1077, "total_shots": 0.228, "rating": 6.7316, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2279, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8897, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1131, "fifa_rank": 592.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5682, "tackles": 0.6197, "tackles_won": 0.3598, "clearances": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 1.1077, "total_shots": 0.228, "rating": 6.7316, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2279, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8897, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0159, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.013, "squad_weight_total": 1.0339, "weight_share": 0.0126, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.364, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5682, "tackles": 0.6197, "tackles_won": 0.3598, "clearances": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 1.1077, "total_shots": 0.228, "rating": 6.7316, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2279, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0018, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8897, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0018, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0016, "squad_weight_total": 0.6878, "weight_share": 0.0023, "creation_factor": 0.8897, "appearance_weight": 0.364, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Dan Ndoye": { "player_id": 944327, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 184, "market_value": 34000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0021, 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"contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0009, "total": 6.765, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066293 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016193 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.015479 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013406 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.011825 } ], "others_margin": 0.000837 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0098, quality 0.746)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1352, "goals": 0.1077, "goal_rate": 0.1077, "shots_on_target": 0.3038, "total_shots": 1.2069, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "key_pass": 0.4332, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 17.29, "total_pass": 3.8052, "accurate_pass": 2.8232, "duels_won": 2.1008, "total_long_balls": 0.2725, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2717, "crosses_total": 0.7919, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 10.5696, "possession_lost": 3.3379, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 1.6286, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.585, "won_contest": 0.1995, "ball_recovery": 0.6551, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3598, "fouls_drawn": 1.2517, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0514, "tackles_won": 0.2533, "tackles": 0.3574, "clearances": 0.408, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0756, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0048, "offsides": 0.5297, "ball_carries": 3.3212, "total_progression": 19.3621, "progressive_carries": 0.788, "shots_off_target": 0.9031 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 34000000, "quality_factor": 0.7455, "boost_factor": 1.0098, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0082)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1352, "goals": 0.1079, "goal_rate": 0.1079, "shots_on_target": 0.3024, "total_shots": 1.2004, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "key_pass": 0.4332, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 17.29, "total_pass": 3.8052, "accurate_pass": 2.8232, "duels_won": 2.1008, "total_long_balls": 0.2725, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9088, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2717, "crosses_total": 0.7854, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 10.5696, "possession_lost": 3.3379, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 1.6286, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.585, "won_contest": 0.1995, "ball_recovery": 0.6551, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3602, "fouls_drawn": 1.2437, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0521, "tackles_won": 0.2512, "tackles": 0.3574, "clearances": 0.408, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0756, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0048, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 3.3212, "total_progression": 19.3621, "progressive_carries": 0.788, "shots_off_target": 0.9031 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0082, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1921, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2517, "after": 1.2437 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2069, "after": 1.2004 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.7919, "after": 0.7854 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.3 to 26.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2028, "goals": 0.1618, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.51, "projection_minutes": 17.29, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.359 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2028, "goals": 0.1618, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2028, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 1.3706, xG scale 0.7945, xA scale 0.7945, team xA 0.76 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0021, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8378, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.089, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3706, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9608, "team_expected_assists": 0.7634, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.701, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7945, "xa_scale": 0.7945, "opponent_lambda": 1.692, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.359 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2028, "after": 0.0578 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0759, "after": 0.0216 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0021, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8378, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1963, "fifa_rank": 1432.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0021, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0534, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8378, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0534, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "scorer_weight": 0.0484, "squad_weight_total": 1.0339, "weight_share": 0.0468, "finishing_factor": 0.8378, "appearance_weight": 0.359, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4536, "total_shots": 1.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.6498, "rating": 6.765, "minutes": 26.51, "total_pass": 5.7078, "accurate_pass": 4.2348, "duels_won": 3.1512, "total_long_balls": 0.4088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4076, "crosses_total": 1.1781, "crosses_accurate": 0.2543, "touches": 15.8544, "possession_lost": 5.0069, "dispossessed": 0.3096, "duels_lost": 2.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.5737, "total_contest": 0.8775, "won_contest": 0.2993, "ball_recovery": 0.9827, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5403, "fouls_drawn": 1.8656, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.3768, "tackles": 0.5361, "clearances": 0.612, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0021, "offsides": 0.5254, "ball_carries": 4.9818, "total_progression": 29.0432, "progressive_carries": 1.182, "shots_off_target": 1.3546, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.359, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.946, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0534, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.021, "finishing_factor": 0.8378, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.021, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0173, "squad_weight_total": 0.6878, "weight_share": 0.0251, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.359, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.09, "expected_assists": 0.76, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 433, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 20, "avg_rating": 6.89, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mathias Jensen", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.502, "defenders": [ "Jair" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.249, "xg_contribution": 0.052, "xg_multiplier": 0.748, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jair", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.751 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mathias Jensen (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jair in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.75 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Igor Thiago", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Jair", "Nikola Milenković" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "xg_contribution": 0.333, "xg_multiplier": 1.0456, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jair", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 }, { "player": "Nikola Milenković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Thiago (ST) is evenly matched against Jair and Nikola Milenković in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€68M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.333 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Dango Ouattara", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Jair", "Nikola Milenković" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2233, "xg_multiplier": 0.9173, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jair", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nikola Milenković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dango Ouattara (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Jair and Nikola Milenković in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.223 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Kevin Schade", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 52000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.831, "defenders": [ "Jair", "Nikola Milenković" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.182, "xg_contribution": 0.3031, "xg_multiplier": 0.9742, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jair", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.818 }, { "player": "Nikola Milenković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.818 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kevin Schade (ST) is evenly matched against Jair and Nikola Milenković in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€52M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.303 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.667, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.204, "xg_contribution": 0.106, "xg_multiplier": 0.9033, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796 }, { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796 } ], "duel_analysis": "Callum Hudson Odoi (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Vitaly Janelt and Kristoffer Ajer in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.106 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Liam Delap", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.667, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "xg_contribution": 0.3392, "xg_multiplier": 1.008, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 }, { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 } ], "duel_analysis": "Liam Delap (SS) is evenly matched against Vitaly Janelt and Kristoffer Ajer in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.339 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "James McAtee", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 19800000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.629, "defenders": [ "Michael Kayode" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.342, "xg_contribution": 0.0739, "xg_multiplier": 0.915, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Michael Kayode", "role": "RB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658 } ], "duel_analysis": "James McAtee (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Michael Kayode in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€20M vs €39M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Xaver Schlager", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 14200000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.57, "defenders": [ "Keane Lewis-Potter" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.347, "xg_contribution": 0.0536, "xg_multiplier": 0.9215, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "role": "LB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.653 } ], "duel_analysis": "Xaver Schlager (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Keane Lewis-Potter in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 76000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.878, "defenders": [ "Vitaly Janelt" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "xg_contribution": 0.2622, "xg_multiplier": 1.063, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.507 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Gibbs-White (CM) is slightly favored against Vitaly Janelt in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€76M vs €21M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.262 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Vitaly Janelt" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.449, "xg_contribution": 0.1212, "xg_multiplier": 0.999, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.551 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Muñoz (CM) is evenly matched against Vitaly Janelt in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.655, "away_midfield_power": 0.709, "home_creative_power": 0.578, "away_creative_power": 0.867, "home_defensive_power": 0.84, "away_defensive_power": 0.707, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.48, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Mathias Jensen", "Vitaly Janelt", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Daniel Muñoz", "James McAtee", "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Xaver Schlager" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 3.2, "key_personal_duel": "Mamadou Sangare vs Morgan Gibbs-White", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.989, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.005 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.692, "away_lambda": 1.089, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mathias Jensen": { "opponents": [ "Jair", "James McAtee" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Igor Thiago": { "opponents": [ "Jair", "Nikola Milenković" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dango Ouattara": { "opponents": [ "Jair", "Nikola Milenković" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kevin Schade": { "opponents": [ "Jair", "Nikola Milenković" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Vitaly Janelt": { "opponents": [ "Callum Hudson Odoi", "Liam Delap", "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Daniel Muñoz", "Xaver Schlager" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kristoffer Ajer": { "opponents": [ "Callum Hudson Odoi", "Liam Delap" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Michael Kayode": { "opponents": [ "James McAtee" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Keane Lewis-Potter": { "opponents": [ "Xaver Schlager" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mamadou Sangare": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Caoimhin Kelleher": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap", "Callum Hudson Odoi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Sepp van den Berg": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jair": { "opponents": [ "Mathias Jensen", "Igor Thiago", "Dango Ouattara", "Kevin Schade" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nikola Milenković": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Dango Ouattara", "Kevin Schade" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Callum Hudson Odoi": { "opponents": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Liam Delap": { "opponents": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "James McAtee": { "opponents": [ "Michael Kayode", "Mathias Jensen" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Xaver Schlager": { "opponents": [ "Keane Lewis-Potter", "Vitaly Janelt" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morgan Gibbs-White": { "opponents": [ "Vitaly Janelt" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matz Sels": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Kevin Schade" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Murillo": { "opponents": [ "Dango Ouattara" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Neco Williams": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Mamadou Sangare vs Morgan Gibbs-White will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.91, Away: 0.96. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0071, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9133, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9097, "home_midfield_factor": 0.989, "away_midfield_factor": 1.005, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.7339, "away_avg_quality": 0.7089, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0249, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.1026, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.1124, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.1705, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0525, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9114, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.0891 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.989, "result": 1.0772 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.131 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.4694 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.028, "result": 1.5106 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0071, "result": 1.5213 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9133, "result": 1.3894 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.5694 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.5694, "result": 1.5694, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0525, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.5694, "result": 1.5694 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.5694 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1862, "result": 1.7552 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.683 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.683, "result": 1.683, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.2, "result": 2.02 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 2.02, "result": 2.0343, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 2.034 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 2.034 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 2.034, "result": 2.034, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.865, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.692 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9561, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0796 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.005, "result": 1.085 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.0307 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0307 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8908, "result": 0.9182 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8989, "result": 0.8253 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9097, "result": 0.7508 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 0.9308 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9308, "result": 0.9308, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0525, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.9308, "result": 0.9308 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9308 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1849, "result": 1.1159 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.1665 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1665, "result": 1.167, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.02, "result": 1.19 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.19, "result": 1.1816, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.182 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.182 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.182, "result": 1.182, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.865, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.089 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1862, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1849, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Brentford", "away_squad": "Nottingham Forest", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 2.034, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.182, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.683, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1665, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.865, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.692, "final_away_lambda": 1.089 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.028, "attack_index": 1.105, "defense_concede_index": 0.96, "form_multiplier": 1.021, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.53, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.33, "team_ppg": 1.37, "opponent_ppg": 1.01 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8908, "attack_index": 0.816, "defense_concede_index": 0.924, "form_multiplier": 0.979, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.13, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.28, "team_ppg": 1.01, "opponent_ppg": 1.37 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Brentford vs Forest. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.683, Away 1.167). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.692, Away 1.089 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Brentford", "away_squad": "Nottingham Forest", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.692, "away_lambda": 1.089, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.683, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.167 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.865, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-31T13:30:53Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }