{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Coventry", "away_team": "Sunderland", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261031", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.121, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0849, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0851, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2562, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.121 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0851 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0849 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0834 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0832 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0632, "0-1": 0.0851, "0-2": 0.06, "0-3": 0.0279, "0-4": 0.0097, "0-5": 0.0027, "0-6": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0849, "1-1": 0.121, "1-2": 0.0834, "1-3": 0.0387, "1-4": 0.0135, "1-5": 0.0037, "1-6": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0598, "2-1": 0.0832, "2-2": 0.0579, "2-3": 0.0269, "2-4": 0.0094, "2-5": 0.0026, "2-6": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0277, "3-1": 0.0385, "3-2": 0.0268, "3-3": 0.0124, "3-4": 0.0043, "3-5": 0.0012, "4-0": 0.0096, "4-1": 0.0134, "4-2": 0.0093, "4-3": 0.0043, "4-4": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0027, "5-1": 0.0037, "5-2": 0.0026, "5-3": 0.0012, "6-0": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.0009, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3712, "draw": 0.2562, "away_win": 0.3726 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.526, "under_2_5_goals": 0.474, "btts_yes": 0.5653, "btts_no": 0.4347, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2486, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2493 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.73, "MCR": 6.84, "ATR": 6.76, "GK": 6.9 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.88, "GK": 6.75 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Coventry vs Sunderland. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Coventry 4W-5D-1L vs Sunderland over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Sidiki Cherif, Brian Brobbey", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Caleb Yirenkyi vs Noah Sadiki will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.73, Away: 1.08. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.389, "away_lambda": 1.392, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 1, "draws": 5, "home_multiplier": 1.0214, "away_multiplier": 0.9786 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.121, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3712, "draw": 0.2562, "away_win": 0.3726 }, "favorite": "Sunderland", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3726, "fair_spread": -0.003, "fair_total": 2.781, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.389, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.392, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5653, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2486, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2493, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Sidiki Cherif (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.336, "probability": 0.2854, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Brian Brobbey (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.5181, "probability": 0.4043, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jack Rudoni (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.238, "probability": 0.2118, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Granit Xhaka (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.1828, "probability": 0.1671, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.781, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 670, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.4, "possession_home_pct": 48.5, "possession_away_pct": 51.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Sunderland", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3726, "script": "Sunderland is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.00 goals and fair total 2.78.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Coventry must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Sunderland lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Sunderland chance creation leans on Brian Brobbey against Ethan Pinnock, Stephen Mfuni in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Coventry: starters carry the main goal usage through Sidiki Cherif; bench watchlist: Victor Torp, Josh Eccles.", "Sunderland: starters carry the main goal usage through Brian Brobbey; bench watchlist: Habib Diarra, Malick Fofana, Chemsdine Talbi.", "Assist usage should flow through Jack Rudoni, Granit Xhaka; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Sunderland tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Coventry is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Sunderland.", "Coventry wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Coventry": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Sidiki Cherif": { "player_id": 1514916, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 49, "height": 188, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.336, "goal_rate": 0.2512, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6777, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 6.0253, "dispossessed": 1.3605, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 5, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1677, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0875, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.26, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Trai Hume, Reinildo Mandava", "opponent_faced": "Trai Hume, Reinildo Mandava", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2854, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.048, "finishing_factor": 1.0749, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363894, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363890, "match_date": "2026-10-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0211, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363874, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3256, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4195, "combined_rank_score": 2226.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4352.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6777, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sidiki Cherif", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gonzalo", "ranking": 4190 }, { "player_name": "José Sosa", "ranking": 4191 }, { "player_name": "Jason Knight", "ranking": 4192 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Marín", "ranking": 4193 }, { "player_name": "Yvan Neyou", "ranking": 4194 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Miguel Rodríguez", "ranking": 4196 }, { "player_name": "Federico Navarro", "ranking": 4197 }, { "player_name": "Yukinari Sugawara", "ranking": 4198 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Pentz", "ranking": 4199 }, { "player_name": "Álex Sancris", "ranking": 4200 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0226, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.207, "goals": 0.2259, "goal_rate": 0.2259, "shots_on_target": 0.5916, "total_shots": 1.5947, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "key_pass": 0.5448, "rating": 6.6777, "minutes": 72.67, "total_pass": 5.6764, "accurate_pass": 4.3372, "duels_won": 2.7687, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6764, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1147, "crosses_total": 0.3887, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.8406, "possession_lost": 5.8921, "dispossessed": 1.3304, "duels_lost": 7.1147, "aerial_lost": 5.0651, "total_contest": 1.1079, "won_contest": 0.7192, "ball_recovery": 1.6113, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.3887, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3304, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3304, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4194, "xgot": 0.1034, "offsides": 0.2809, "ball_carries": 4.3304, "total_progression": 19.0867, "progressive_carries": 1.3392, "shots_off_target": 1.0031 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:30:56.271646+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 610, "rows": 17075 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-12", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 2.5144, "expectedGoals": 0.0856, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 2.9679, "accuratePass": 4.2722, "totalShots": 1.2607 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.20703759789466858, "model_output": 0.207, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.282 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0323 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0236 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0709 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0272, "total": 0.207, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.637486, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.310778 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.150266 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.073741 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.04975 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.048972 } ], "others_margin": -0.122862 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2258738875389099, "model_output": 0.2259, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.144 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0742 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.07 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0248, "total": 0.2259, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614663, "item_margins": [ { "name": 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"importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0861, "total": 6.6777, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048257 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016372 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014977 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013816 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.012764 } ], "others_margin": -0.086178 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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72.67, "total_pass": 5.8047, "accurate_pass": 4.4352, "duels_won": 2.8313, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1851, "crosses_total": 0.3975, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2212, "possession_lost": 6.0253, "dispossessed": 1.3605, "duels_lost": 7.2755, "aerial_lost": 5.1796, "total_contest": 1.1329, "won_contest": 0.7355, "ball_recovery": 1.6477, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3379, "fouls_drawn": 1.4201, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3379, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3379, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4664, "xgot": 0.1149, "offsides": 0.2872, "ball_carries": 4.4283, "total_progression": 19.5181, "progressive_carries": 1.3695, "shots_off_target": 1.1156, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0875, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.26, 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0.2302 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6308, "after": 1.7735 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0258, "after": 1.1156 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.605, "after": 0.6579 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4289, "after": 0.4664 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.231, "after": 0.2512 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2117, "after": 0.2302 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1057, "after": 0.1149 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2302, "goal_rate": 0.2512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6579, "total_shots": 1.7735, "expected_assists": 0.0311, "key_pass": 0.5571, "rating": 6.6777, "minutes": 72.67, "total_pass": 5.8047, "accurate_pass": 4.4352, "duels_won": 2.8313, "total_long_balls": 0.0, 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"accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363250, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4122, "combined_rank_score": 2117.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 969.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.35, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 3266.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7587, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Pol Fernández", "ranking": 4117 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Domínguez", "ranking": 4118 }, { "player_name": "Fredrik Sjøvold", "ranking": 4119 }, { "player_name": "Domagoj Bradarić", "ranking": 4120 }, { "player_name": "Sheyko Studer", "ranking": 4121 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ali Ahmed", "ranking": 4123 }, { "player_name": "Josip Brekalo", "ranking": 4124 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Bernhardsson", "ranking": 4125 }, { "player_name": "Andrija Bulatovic", "ranking": 4126 }, { "player_name": "Alberto Reina", "ranking": 4127 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.761, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", 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}, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0137 } ], "others": 0.0103, "total": 6.9255, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030852 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.014734 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014204 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.014105 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013665 } ], "others_margin": 0.010374 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.5753, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.1812, "goodHighClaim": 1.0556, "save_contribution": 1.6691, "possessionLostCtrl": 20.305, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.4865 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.7646238803863525, "model_output": 2.7646, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0358 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9271, "items": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.067 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": -0.0625, "total": 2.7646, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074005, "item_margins": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.023153 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.005933 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.005019 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.004912 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.004247 } ], "others_margin": -0.022329 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0074146101251244545, "model_output": 0.0074, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.04 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0388 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0358 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0235, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.106 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.051 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": 0.0003, "total": 0.0074, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023525, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.10603 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.050989 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.044692 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.034659 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.014418 } ], "others_margin": 0.000349 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.903977394104004, "model_output": 6.904, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9898, "items": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0721 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0356 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0155 } ], "others": 0.016, "total": 6.904, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.989751, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.072053 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.038973 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.035587 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0157, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "saves": 2.808, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7155, "accurate_pass": 22.8699, "total_long_balls": 30.5794, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0646, "touches": 51.9982, "clearances": 0.5578, "ball_recovery": 9.2597, "high_claims": 1.0722, "punches": 0.2292, "aerial_won": 0.0929, "sweeper_actions": 0.7899, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5843, "saves_inside_box": 0.9432, "possession_lost": 20.6238, "duels_won": 0.2952, "duels_lost": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.0929, "won_contest": 0.0929, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1093, "total_own_half_passes": 16.123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.514 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0157, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0333)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7644, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7155, "accurate_pass": 22.8699, "total_long_balls": 30.5794, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0646, "touches": 51.9982, "clearances": 0.5578, "ball_recovery": 9.2597, "high_claims": 1.0722, "punches": 0.2292, "aerial_won": 0.0929, "sweeper_actions": 0.7899, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5843, "saves_inside_box": 0.9432, "possession_lost": 20.6238, "duels_won": 0.2952, "duels_lost": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.0929, "won_contest": 0.0929, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1057, "total_own_half_passes": 16.123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.514 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0333, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.808, "after": 2.7644 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.7644, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7155, "accurate_pass": 22.8699, "total_long_balls": 30.5794, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0646, "touches": 51.9982, "clearances": 0.5578, "ball_recovery": 9.2597, "high_claims": 1.0722, "punches": 0.2292, "aerial_won": 0.0929, "sweeper_actions": 0.7899, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5843, "saves_inside_box": 0.9432, "possession_lost": 20.6238, "duels_won": 0.2952, "duels_lost": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.0929, "won_contest": 0.0929, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1057, "total_own_half_passes": 16.123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.514 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7644, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7155, "accurate_pass": 22.8699, "total_long_balls": 30.5794, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0646, "touches": 51.9982, "clearances": 0.5578, "ball_recovery": 9.2597, "high_claims": 1.0722, "punches": 0.2292, "aerial_won": 0.0929, "sweeper_actions": 0.7899, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5843, "saves_inside_box": 0.9432, "possession_lost": 20.6238, "duels_won": 0.2952, "duels_lost": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.0929, "won_contest": 0.0929, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1057, "total_own_half_passes": 16.123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.514, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3471, "shots_faced": 12.8, "expected_saves": 3.13, "high_pressure_saves": 1.08, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Enzo Le Fée", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Enzo Le Fée", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.3471 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.7644, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7155, "accurate_pass": 22.8699, "total_long_balls": 30.5794, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0646, "touches": 51.9982, "clearances": 0.5578, "ball_recovery": 9.2597, "high_claims": 1.0722, "punches": 0.2292, "aerial_won": 0.0929, "sweeper_actions": 0.7899, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5843, "saves_inside_box": 0.9432, "possession_lost": 20.6238, "duels_won": 0.2952, "duels_lost": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.0929, "won_contest": 0.0929, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1057, "total_own_half_passes": 16.123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.514, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3471, "shots_faced": 12.8, "expected_saves": 3.13, "high_pressure_saves": 1.08, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Enzo Le Fée", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 0.9518, xG scale 1.4594, xA scale 1.5808, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7644, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7155, "accurate_pass": 22.8699, "total_long_balls": 30.5794, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0646, "touches": 51.9982, "clearances": 0.5578, "ball_recovery": 9.2597, "high_claims": 1.0722, "punches": 0.2292, "aerial_won": 0.0929, "sweeper_actions": 0.7899, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5843, "saves_inside_box": 0.9432, "possession_lost": 20.6238, "duels_won": 0.2952, "duels_lost": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.0929, "won_contest": 0.0929, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1057, "total_own_half_passes": 16.123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.514, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3471, "shots_faced": 13.2, "expected_saves": 3.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.11, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Enzo Le Fée", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.389, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9518, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5711, "team_expected_assists": 0.9029, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4594, "xa_scale": 1.5808, "opponent_lambda": 1.392, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 12.8, "after": 13.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.13, "after": 3.23 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.08, "after": 1.11 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7644, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7155, "accurate_pass": 22.8699, "total_long_balls": 30.5794, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0646, "touches": 51.9982, "clearances": 0.5578, "ball_recovery": 9.2597, "high_claims": 1.0722, "punches": 0.2292, "aerial_won": 0.0929, "sweeper_actions": 0.7899, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5843, "saves_inside_box": 0.9432, "possession_lost": 20.6238, "duels_won": 0.2952, "duels_lost": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.0929, "won_contest": 0.0929, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1057, "total_own_half_passes": 16.123, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.514, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3471, "shots_faced": 13.2, "expected_saves": 3.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.11, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Enzo Le Fée", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.5573, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sidiki Cherif", "weight": 0.3612, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3612, "runner_up": "Jack Rudoni", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2788 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7644, "goals_prevented": 0.0075, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.7155, "accurate_pass": 22.8699, "total_long_balls": 30.5794, "accurate_long_balls": 11.0646, "touches": 51.9982, "clearances": 0.5578, "ball_recovery": 9.2597, "high_claims": 1.0722, "punches": 0.2292, "aerial_won": 0.0929, "sweeper_actions": 0.7899, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5843, "saves_inside_box": 0.9432, "possession_lost": 20.6238, "duels_won": 0.2952, "duels_lost": 0.1513, 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1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2115 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1527 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0841 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0713 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0519 } ], "others": -0.1271, "total": 1.1237, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.167091 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123359 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.066058 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.056247 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.040669 } ], "others_margin": -0.10713 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3826583921909332, "model_output": 0.3827, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1194 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0482 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0613, "total": 0.3827, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.119426 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048197 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.021931 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.021758 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008622 } ], "others_margin": -0.061259 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.737530708312988, "model_output": 6.7375, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0295, "total": 6.7375, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012676 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01111 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010134 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.008905 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007625 } ], "others_margin": -0.029508 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0193, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1694, "tackles": 1.939, "tackles_won": 1.1908, "clearances": 3.5084, "aerial_won": 1.1454, "total_shots": 0.3901, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9137, "accurate_pass": 23.8401, "duels_won": 3.8494, "total_long_balls": 4.3057, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2481, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9868, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0637, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7764, "crosses_total": 1.446, "crosses_accurate": 0.5084, "touches": 53.0228, "possession_lost": 12.7747, "dispossessed": 0.3229, "duels_lost": 2.9389, "aerial_lost": 0.4481, "total_contest": 1.3995, "won_contest": 0.3633, "ball_recovery": 3.0752, "challenges_lost": 0.5644, "fouls": 0.5672, "fouls_drawn": 0.8553, "blocks": 0.4705, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.003, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.9009, "total_progression": 42.0795, "progressive_carries": 0.778, "key_pass": 1.0743, "shots_off_target": 0.3901 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0193, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0361)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1452, "tackles": 1.939, "tackles_won": 1.1659, "clearances": 3.5084, "aerial_won": 1.1454, "total_shots": 0.376, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9137, "accurate_pass": 23.8401, "duels_won": 3.8494, "total_long_balls": 4.3057, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2481, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9868, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0637, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7764, "crosses_total": 1.4479, "crosses_accurate": 0.5084, "touches": 53.0228, "possession_lost": 12.7747, "dispossessed": 0.3229, "duels_lost": 2.9389, "aerial_lost": 0.4481, "total_contest": 1.3995, "won_contest": 0.3633, "ball_recovery": 3.0752, "challenges_lost": 0.5644, "fouls": 0.5828, "fouls_drawn": 0.8244, "blocks": 0.4705, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.003, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.9009, "total_progression": 42.0795, "progressive_carries": 0.778, "key_pass": 1.0743, "shots_off_target": 0.3901 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0361, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8553, "after": 0.8244 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1908, "after": 1.1659 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1694, "after": 1.1452 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5672, "after": 0.5828 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3901, "after": 0.376 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1452, "tackles": 1.939, "tackles_won": 1.1659, "clearances": 3.5084, "aerial_won": 1.1454, "total_shots": 0.3901, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9137, "accurate_pass": 23.8401, "duels_won": 3.8494, "total_long_balls": 4.3057, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2481, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9868, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0637, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7764, "crosses_total": 1.4479, "crosses_accurate": 0.5084, "touches": 53.0228, "possession_lost": 12.7747, "dispossessed": 0.3229, "duels_lost": 2.9389, "aerial_lost": 0.4481, "total_contest": 1.3995, "won_contest": 0.3633, "ball_recovery": 3.0752, "challenges_lost": 0.5644, "fouls": 0.5828, "fouls_drawn": 0.8244, "blocks": 0.4705, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.003, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.9009, "total_progression": 42.0795, "progressive_carries": 0.778, "key_pass": 1.0743, "shots_off_target": 0.3901 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1452, "tackles": 1.939, "tackles_won": 1.1659, "clearances": 3.5084, "aerial_won": 1.1454, "total_shots": 0.3901, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9137, "accurate_pass": 23.8401, "duels_won": 3.8494, "total_long_balls": 4.3057, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2481, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9868, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0637, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7764, "crosses_total": 1.4479, "crosses_accurate": 0.5084, "touches": 53.0228, "possession_lost": 12.7747, "dispossessed": 0.3229, "duels_lost": 2.9389, "aerial_lost": 0.4481, "total_contest": 1.3995, "won_contest": 0.3633, "ball_recovery": 3.0752, "challenges_lost": 0.5644, "fouls": 0.5828, "fouls_drawn": 0.8244, "blocks": 0.4705, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.003, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.9009, "total_progression": 42.0795, "progressive_carries": 0.778, "key_pass": 1.0743, "shots_off_target": 0.3901, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1452, "tackles": 1.939, "tackles_won": 1.1659, "clearances": 3.5084, "aerial_won": 1.1454, "total_shots": 0.3901, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9137, "accurate_pass": 23.8401, "duels_won": 3.8494, "total_long_balls": 4.3057, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2481, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9868, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0637, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7764, "crosses_total": 1.4479, "crosses_accurate": 0.5084, "touches": 53.0228, "possession_lost": 12.7747, "dispossessed": 0.3229, "duels_lost": 2.9389, "aerial_lost": 0.4481, "total_contest": 1.3995, "won_contest": 0.3633, "ball_recovery": 3.0752, "challenges_lost": 0.5644, "fouls": 0.5828, "fouls_drawn": 0.8244, "blocks": 0.4705, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.003, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.9009, "total_progression": 42.0795, "progressive_carries": 0.778, "key_pass": 1.0743, "shots_off_target": 0.3901, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 0.9518, xG scale 1.4594, xA scale 1.5808, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1452, "tackles": 1.939, "tackles_won": 1.1659, "clearances": 3.5084, "aerial_won": 1.1454, "total_shots": 0.3901, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9137, "accurate_pass": 23.8401, "duels_won": 3.8494, "total_long_balls": 4.3057, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2481, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9868, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0637, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7764, "crosses_total": 1.4479, "crosses_accurate": 0.5084, "touches": 53.0228, "possession_lost": 12.7747, "dispossessed": 0.3229, "duels_lost": 2.9389, "aerial_lost": 0.4481, "total_contest": 1.3995, "won_contest": 0.3633, "ball_recovery": 3.0752, "challenges_lost": 0.5644, "fouls": 0.5828, "fouls_drawn": 0.8244, "blocks": 0.4705, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0922, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.9009, "total_progression": 42.0795, "progressive_carries": 0.778, "key_pass": 1.0743, "shots_off_target": 0.3901, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9434, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.389, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9518, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5711, "team_expected_assists": 0.9029, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4594, "xa_scale": 1.5808, "opponent_lambda": 1.392, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0583, "after": 0.0922 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1452, "tackles": 1.939, "tackles_won": 1.1659, "clearances": 3.5084, "aerial_won": 1.1454, "total_shots": 0.3901, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9137, "accurate_pass": 23.8401, "duels_won": 3.8494, "total_long_balls": 4.3057, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2481, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9868, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0637, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7764, "crosses_total": 1.4479, "crosses_accurate": 0.5084, "touches": 53.0228, "possession_lost": 12.7747, "dispossessed": 0.3229, "duels_lost": 2.9389, "aerial_lost": 0.4481, "total_contest": 1.3995, "won_contest": 0.3633, "ball_recovery": 3.0752, "challenges_lost": 0.5644, "fouls": 0.5828, "fouls_drawn": 0.8244, "blocks": 0.4705, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0922, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.9009, "total_progression": 42.0795, "progressive_carries": 0.778, "key_pass": 1.0743, "shots_off_target": 0.3901, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9434, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3641, "fifa_rank": 2211.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1452, "tackles": 1.939, "tackles_won": 1.1659, "clearances": 3.5084, "aerial_won": 1.1454, "total_shots": 0.3901, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9137, "accurate_pass": 23.8401, "duels_won": 3.8494, "total_long_balls": 4.3057, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2481, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9868, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0637, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7764, "crosses_total": 1.4479, "crosses_accurate": 0.5084, "touches": 53.0228, "possession_lost": 12.7747, "dispossessed": 0.3229, "duels_lost": 2.9389, "aerial_lost": 0.4481, "total_contest": 1.3995, "won_contest": 0.3633, "ball_recovery": 3.0752, "challenges_lost": 0.5644, "fouls": 0.5828, "fouls_drawn": 0.8244, "blocks": 0.4705, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0922, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.9009, "total_progression": 42.0795, "progressive_carries": 0.778, "key_pass": 1.0743, "shots_off_target": 0.3901, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0044, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9434, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0044, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0042, "squad_weight_total": 1.5573, "weight_share": 0.0027, "finishing_factor": 0.9434, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sidiki Cherif", "weight": 0.3612, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3612, "runner_up": "Jack Rudoni", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2788 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1452, "tackles": 1.939, "tackles_won": 1.1659, "clearances": 3.5084, "aerial_won": 1.1454, "total_shots": 0.3901, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.9137, "accurate_pass": 23.8401, "duels_won": 3.8494, "total_long_balls": 4.3057, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2481, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9868, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0637, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7764, "crosses_total": 1.4479, "crosses_accurate": 0.5084, "touches": 53.0228, "possession_lost": 12.7747, "dispossessed": 0.3229, "duels_lost": 2.9389, "aerial_lost": 0.4481, "total_contest": 1.3995, "won_contest": 0.3633, "ball_recovery": 3.0752, "challenges_lost": 0.5644, "fouls": 0.5828, "fouls_drawn": 0.8244, "blocks": 0.4705, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0922, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.9009, "total_progression": 42.0795, "progressive_carries": 0.778, "key_pass": 1.0743, "shots_off_target": 0.3901, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0044, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0881, "finishing_factor": 0.9434, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0881, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0738, "squad_weight_total": 0.8636, "weight_share": 0.0854, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jack Rudoni", "weight": 0.1904, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1904, "runner_up": "Jay DaSilva", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1719, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sidiki Cherif" ] } ] } } ] }, "Stephen Mfuni": { "player_id": 1402791, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 193, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7084, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.0797, "dispossessed": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.3262, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1497, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "shots_on_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.4028, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.139, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0096, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8913, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363894, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363869, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5228, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9873, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8069, "tackles": 1.3054, "tackles_won": 0.7883, "clearances": 3.2178, "aerial_won": 1.4362, "total_shots": 1.0363, "rating": 6.7084, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 14.9563, "accurate_pass": 11.815, "duels_won": 1.9899, "total_long_balls": 1.8768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5546, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4198, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3951, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.6101, "possession_lost": 4.0797, "dispossessed": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 2.3671, "aerial_lost": 1.1514, "total_contest": 0.2773, "won_contest": 0.2773, "ball_recovery": 1.2157, "challenges_lost": 0.2773, "fouls": 0.6611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2773, "goals": 0.3262, "goal_rate": 0.3262, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1026, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "shots_on_target": 1.0363, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.276, "ball_carries": 4.9115, "total_progression": 22.7551, "progressive_carries": 0.6035, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9873, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8069, "tackles": 1.3054, "tackles_won": 0.7883, "clearances": 3.2178, "aerial_won": 1.4362, "total_shots": 1.0363, "rating": 6.7084, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 14.9563, "accurate_pass": 11.815, "duels_won": 1.9899, "total_long_balls": 1.8768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5546, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4198, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3951, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.6101, "possession_lost": 4.0797, "dispossessed": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 2.3671, "aerial_lost": 1.1514, "total_contest": 0.2773, "won_contest": 0.2773, "ball_recovery": 1.2157, "challenges_lost": 0.2773, "fouls": 0.6611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2773, "goals": 0.3262, "goal_rate": 0.3262, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1026, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "shots_on_target": 1.0363, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.276, "ball_carries": 4.9115, "total_progression": 22.7551, "progressive_carries": 0.6035, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8069, "tackles": 1.3054, "tackles_won": 0.7883, "clearances": 3.2178, "aerial_won": 1.4362, "total_shots": 1.0363, "rating": 6.7084, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 14.9563, "accurate_pass": 11.815, "duels_won": 1.9899, "total_long_balls": 1.8768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5546, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4198, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3951, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.6101, "possession_lost": 4.0797, "dispossessed": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 2.3671, "aerial_lost": 1.1514, "total_contest": 0.2773, "won_contest": 0.2773, "ball_recovery": 1.2157, "challenges_lost": 0.2773, "fouls": 0.6611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2773, "goals": 0.3262, "goal_rate": 0.3262, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1026, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "shots_on_target": 1.0363, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.276, "ball_carries": 4.9115, "total_progression": 22.7551, "progressive_carries": 0.6035, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8069, "tackles": 1.3054, "tackles_won": 0.7883, "clearances": 3.2178, "aerial_won": 1.4362, "total_shots": 1.0363, "rating": 6.7084, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 14.9563, "accurate_pass": 11.815, "duels_won": 1.9899, "total_long_balls": 1.8768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5546, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4198, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3951, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.6101, "possession_lost": 4.0797, "dispossessed": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 2.3671, "aerial_lost": 1.1514, "total_contest": 0.2773, "won_contest": 0.2773, "ball_recovery": 1.2157, "challenges_lost": 0.2773, "fouls": 0.6611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2773, "goal_rate": 0.3262, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1026, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "shots_on_target": 1.0363, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.276, "ball_carries": 4.9115, "total_progression": 22.7551, "progressive_carries": 0.6035, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 0.9518, xG scale 1.4594, xA scale 1.5808, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8069, "tackles": 1.3054, "tackles_won": 0.7883, "clearances": 3.2178, "aerial_won": 1.4362, "total_shots": 1.0363, "rating": 6.7084, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 14.9563, "accurate_pass": 11.815, "duels_won": 1.9899, "total_long_balls": 1.8768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5546, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4198, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3951, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.6101, "possession_lost": 4.0797, "dispossessed": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 2.3671, "aerial_lost": 1.1514, "total_contest": 0.2773, "won_contest": 0.2773, "ball_recovery": 1.2157, "challenges_lost": 0.2773, "fouls": 0.6611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2773, "goal_rate": 0.3262, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1497, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "shots_on_target": 1.0363, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4028, "ball_carries": 4.9115, "total_progression": 22.7551, "progressive_carries": 0.6035, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8913 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.389, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9518, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5711, "team_expected_assists": 0.9029, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4594, "xa_scale": 1.5808, "opponent_lambda": 1.392, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1026, "after": 0.1497 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8069, "tackles": 1.3054, "tackles_won": 0.7883, "clearances": 3.2178, "aerial_won": 1.4362, "total_shots": 1.0363, "rating": 6.7084, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 14.9563, "accurate_pass": 11.815, "duels_won": 1.9899, "total_long_balls": 1.8768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5546, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4198, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3951, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.6101, "possession_lost": 4.0797, "dispossessed": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 2.3671, "aerial_lost": 1.1514, "total_contest": 0.2773, "won_contest": 0.2773, "ball_recovery": 1.2157, "challenges_lost": 0.2773, "fouls": 0.6611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2773, "goal_rate": 0.3262, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1497, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "shots_on_target": 1.0363, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4028, "ball_carries": 4.9115, "total_progression": 22.7551, "progressive_carries": 0.6035, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8913, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5228, "fifa_rank": 6588.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8069, "tackles": 1.3054, "tackles_won": 0.7883, "clearances": 3.2178, "aerial_won": 1.4362, "total_shots": 1.0363, "rating": 6.7084, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 14.9563, "accurate_pass": 11.815, "duels_won": 1.9899, "total_long_balls": 1.8768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5546, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4198, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3951, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.6101, "possession_lost": 4.0797, "dispossessed": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 2.3671, "aerial_lost": 1.1514, "total_contest": 0.2773, "won_contest": 0.2773, "ball_recovery": 1.2157, "challenges_lost": 0.2773, "fouls": 0.6611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2773, "goal_rate": 0.3262, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1497, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "shots_on_target": 1.0363, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4028, "ball_carries": 4.9115, "total_progression": 22.7551, "progressive_carries": 0.6035, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.139, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8913, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.139, "goal_rate": 0.3262, "scorer_weight": 0.1871, "squad_weight_total": 1.5573, "weight_share": 0.1202, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sidiki Cherif", "weight": 0.3612, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3612, "runner_up": "Jack Rudoni", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2788 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8069, "tackles": 1.3054, "tackles_won": 0.7883, "clearances": 3.2178, "aerial_won": 1.4362, "total_shots": 1.0363, "rating": 6.7084, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 14.9563, "accurate_pass": 11.815, "duels_won": 1.9899, "total_long_balls": 1.8768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5546, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4198, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3951, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.6101, "possession_lost": 4.0797, "dispossessed": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 2.3671, "aerial_lost": 1.1514, "total_contest": 0.2773, "won_contest": 0.2773, "ball_recovery": 1.2157, "challenges_lost": 0.2773, "fouls": 0.6611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2773, "goal_rate": 0.3262, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1497, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "shots_on_target": 1.0363, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4028, "ball_carries": 4.9115, "total_progression": 22.7551, "progressive_carries": 0.6035, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.139, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0096, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8913, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0096, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0086, "squad_weight_total": 0.8636, "weight_share": 0.0099, "creation_factor": 0.8913, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jack Rudoni", "weight": 0.1904, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1904, "runner_up": "Jay DaSilva", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1719, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sidiki Cherif" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ethan Pinnock": { "player_id": 855864, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 194, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7451, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 5.5967, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, 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"premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025163, "match_date": "2025-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 5.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3408, "combined_rank_score": 1388.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2199.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7451, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ethan Pinnock", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Stefan Savić", "ranking": 3403 }, { "player_name": "Nicolae Stanciu", "ranking": 3404 }, { "player_name": "Philip Billing", "ranking": 3405 }, { "player_name": "Anis Hadj Moussa", "ranking": 3406 }, { "player_name": "Jordy Clasie", "ranking": 3407 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alassane Pléa", "ranking": 3409 }, { "player_name": "Caio Henrique", "ranking": 3410 }, { "player_name": "William Osula", "ranking": 3411 }, { "player_name": "Justin De Haas", "ranking": 3412 }, { "player_name": "Nahuel Losada", "ranking": 3413 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 11, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 11, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9937, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 11 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0978, "tackles": 1.1593, "tackles_won": 0.6544, "clearances": 5.9055, "aerial_won": 2.7374, "total_shots": 0.5517, "rating": 6.7451, "minutes": 88.27, "total_pass": 26.004, "accurate_pass": 21.4964, "duels_won": 4.0093, "total_long_balls": 3.3211, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5503, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8042, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4584, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1998, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.038, "crosses_total": 0.0975, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 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"match_date": "2025-09-20", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0417, "rating": 5.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 11.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 6.6086, "aerialWon": 2.6006, "totalClearance_p90": 7.6324, "totalTackle": 0.8114, "totalPass": 24.8184 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.097841501235962, "model_output": 1.0978, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2977 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0318 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0281 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8678, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1039 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.1125 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": 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"importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0625 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0464, "total": 0.5517, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062497 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.026915 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024485 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018586 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014508 } ], "others_margin": -0.046306 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7450761795043945, "model_output": 6.7451, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0457 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0023, "total": 6.7451, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.045749 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012595 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.011683 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010595 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.009562 } ], "others_margin": -0.002273 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9937, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0909, "tackles": 1.152, "tackles_won": 0.6502, "clearances": 5.8683, "aerial_won": 2.7201, "total_shots": 0.5483, "rating": 6.7451, "minutes": 88.27, "total_pass": 25.8402, "accurate_pass": 21.361, "duels_won": 3.984, "total_long_balls": 3.3002, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5405, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7109, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3736, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9874, "crosses_total": 0.0969, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.35, "possession_lost": 5.5967, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.6756, "aerial_lost": 1.9518, "total_contest": 0.1418, "won_contest": 0.0595, "ball_recovery": 2.1245, "challenges_lost": 0.5085, "fouls": 0.0824, "fouls_drawn": 0.4369, "blocks": 1.9979, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "shots_on_target": 0.07, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0084, "ball_carries": 7.0181, "total_progression": 15.3113, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4783 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9937, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0909, "tackles": 1.152, "tackles_won": 0.6502, "clearances": 5.8683, "aerial_won": 2.7201, "total_shots": 0.5483, "rating": 6.7451, "minutes": 88.27, "total_pass": 25.8402, "accurate_pass": 21.361, "duels_won": 3.984, "total_long_balls": 3.3002, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5405, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7109, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3736, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9874, "crosses_total": 0.0969, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.35, "possession_lost": 5.5967, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.6756, "aerial_lost": 1.9518, "total_contest": 0.1418, "won_contest": 0.0595, "ball_recovery": 2.1245, "challenges_lost": 0.5085, "fouls": 0.0824, "fouls_drawn": 0.4369, "blocks": 1.9979, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "shots_on_target": 0.07, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0084, "ball_carries": 7.0181, "total_progression": 15.3113, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4783 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0909, "tackles": 1.152, "tackles_won": 0.6502, "clearances": 5.8683, "aerial_won": 2.7201, "total_shots": 0.5483, "rating": 6.7451, "minutes": 88.27, "total_pass": 25.8402, "accurate_pass": 21.361, "duels_won": 3.984, "total_long_balls": 3.3002, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5405, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7109, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3736, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9874, "crosses_total": 0.0969, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.35, "possession_lost": 5.5967, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.6756, "aerial_lost": 1.9518, "total_contest": 0.1418, "won_contest": 0.0595, "ball_recovery": 2.1245, "challenges_lost": 0.5085, "fouls": 0.0824, "fouls_drawn": 0.4369, "blocks": 1.9979, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "shots_on_target": 0.07, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0084, "ball_carries": 7.0181, "total_progression": 15.3113, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4783, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0909, "tackles": 1.152, "tackles_won": 0.6502, "clearances": 5.8683, "aerial_won": 2.7201, "total_shots": 0.5483, "rating": 6.7451, "minutes": 88.27, "total_pass": 25.8402, "accurate_pass": 21.361, "duels_won": 3.984, "total_long_balls": 3.3002, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5405, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7109, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3736, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9874, "crosses_total": 0.0969, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.35, "possession_lost": 5.5967, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.6756, "aerial_lost": 1.9518, "total_contest": 0.1418, "won_contest": 0.0595, "ball_recovery": 2.1245, "challenges_lost": 0.5085, "fouls": 0.0824, "fouls_drawn": 0.4369, "blocks": 1.9979, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "shots_on_target": 0.07, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0084, "ball_carries": 7.0181, "total_progression": 15.3113, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4783, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 0.9518, xG scale 1.4594, xA scale 1.5808, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0909, "tackles": 1.152, "tackles_won": 0.6502, "clearances": 5.8683, "aerial_won": 2.7201, "total_shots": 0.5483, "rating": 6.7451, "minutes": 88.27, "total_pass": 25.8402, "accurate_pass": 21.361, "duels_won": 3.984, "total_long_balls": 3.3002, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5405, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7109, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3736, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9874, "crosses_total": 0.0969, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.35, "possession_lost": 5.5967, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.6756, "aerial_lost": 1.9518, "total_contest": 0.1418, "won_contest": 0.0595, "ball_recovery": 2.1245, "challenges_lost": 0.5085, "fouls": 0.0824, "fouls_drawn": 0.4369, "blocks": 1.9979, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "shots_on_target": 0.07, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 7.0181, "total_progression": 15.3113, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4783, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.389, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9518, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5711, "team_expected_assists": 0.9029, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4594, "xa_scale": 1.5808, "opponent_lambda": 1.392, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0203, "after": 0.0296 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0143, "after": 0.0226 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0909, "tackles": 1.152, "tackles_won": 0.6502, "clearances": 5.8683, "aerial_won": 2.7201, "total_shots": 0.5483, "rating": 6.7451, "minutes": 88.27, "total_pass": 25.8402, "accurate_pass": 21.361, "duels_won": 3.984, "total_long_balls": 3.3002, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5405, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7109, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3736, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9874, "crosses_total": 0.0969, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.35, "possession_lost": 5.5967, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.6756, "aerial_lost": 1.9518, "total_contest": 0.1418, "won_contest": 0.0595, "ball_recovery": 2.1245, "challenges_lost": 0.5085, "fouls": 0.0824, "fouls_drawn": 0.4369, "blocks": 1.9979, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "shots_on_target": 0.07, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 7.0181, "total_progression": 15.3113, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4783, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3408, "fifa_rank": 2199.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0909, "tackles": 1.152, "tackles_won": 0.6502, "clearances": 5.8683, "aerial_won": 2.7201, "total_shots": 0.5483, "rating": 6.7451, "minutes": 88.27, "total_pass": 25.8402, "accurate_pass": 21.361, "duels_won": 3.984, "total_long_balls": 3.3002, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5405, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7109, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3736, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9874, "crosses_total": 0.0969, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.35, "possession_lost": 5.5967, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.6756, "aerial_lost": 1.9518, "total_contest": 0.1418, "won_contest": 0.0595, "ball_recovery": 2.1245, "challenges_lost": 0.5085, "fouls": 0.0824, "fouls_drawn": 0.4369, "blocks": 1.9979, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "shots_on_target": 0.07, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 7.0181, "total_progression": 15.3113, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4783, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0237, "squad_weight_total": 1.5573, "weight_share": 0.0152, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sidiki Cherif", "weight": 0.3612, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3612, "runner_up": "Jack Rudoni", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2788 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0909, "tackles": 1.152, "tackles_won": 0.6502, "clearances": 5.8683, "aerial_won": 2.7201, "total_shots": 0.5483, "rating": 6.7451, "minutes": 88.27, "total_pass": 25.8402, "accurate_pass": 21.361, "duels_won": 3.984, "total_long_balls": 3.3002, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5405, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7109, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3736, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9874, "crosses_total": 0.0969, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.35, "possession_lost": 5.5967, "dispossessed": 0.0506, "duels_lost": 2.6756, "aerial_lost": 1.9518, "total_contest": 0.1418, "won_contest": 0.0595, "ball_recovery": 2.1245, "challenges_lost": 0.5085, "fouls": 0.0824, "fouls_drawn": 0.4369, "blocks": 1.9979, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "shots_on_target": 0.07, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 7.0181, "total_progression": 15.3113, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4783, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0223, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0223, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0181, "squad_weight_total": 0.8636, "weight_share": 0.0209, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jack Rudoni", "weight": 0.1904, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1904, "runner_up": "Jay DaSilva", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1719, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sidiki Cherif" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jay DaSilva": { "player_id": 791985, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 170, "market_value": 11600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 7.6122, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.1229, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1446, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0801, "expected_assists": 0.1375, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0684, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 31, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0565 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0184 } ], "others": -0.0164, "total": 0.431, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056473 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.031032 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.021142 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.018731 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018361 } ], "others_margin": -0.016268 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.721314430236816, "model_output": 6.7213, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0181, "total": 6.7213, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016574 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015043 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009094 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.008739 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.00845 } ], "others_margin": -0.018005 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0042, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8395, "tackles": 1.5506, "tackles_won": 0.9451, "clearances": 2.0522, "aerial_won": 0.7296, "total_shots": 0.4329, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 29.3177, "accurate_pass": 25.025, "duels_won": 2.5503, "total_long_balls": 1.6687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8982, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5126, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5125, "crosses_total": 2.5983, "crosses_accurate": 0.8597, "touches": 42.3181, "possession_lost": 7.6122, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 3.2767, "aerial_lost": 1.0587, "total_contest": 1.1138, "won_contest": 0.6821, "ball_recovery": 2.1224, "challenges_lost": 0.8932, "fouls": 0.5572, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6924, "goals": 0.1271, "goal_rate": 0.1271, "assists": 0.1496, "assist_rate": 0.1496, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "expected_assists": 0.087, "shots_on_target": 0.2053, "big_chances_created": 0.1081, "xgot": 0.0469, "ball_carries": 8.8714, "total_progression": 30.8434, "progressive_carries": 0.5395, "key_pass": 0.9678, "shots_off_target": 0.2276 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11600000, "quality_factor": 0.5411, "boost_factor": 1.0042, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0333)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8281, "tackles": 1.5506, "tackles_won": 0.9468, "clearances": 2.0522, "aerial_won": 0.7296, "total_shots": 0.4351, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 29.3177, "accurate_pass": 25.025, "duels_won": 2.5503, "total_long_balls": 1.6687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8982, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5126, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5125, "crosses_total": 2.5947, "crosses_accurate": 0.8597, "touches": 42.3181, "possession_lost": 7.6122, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 3.2767, "aerial_lost": 1.0587, "total_contest": 1.1138, "won_contest": 0.6821, "ball_recovery": 2.1224, "challenges_lost": 0.8932, "fouls": 0.5552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6924, "goals": 0.1229, "goal_rate": 0.1229, "assists": 0.1446, "assist_rate": 0.1446, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "expected_assists": 0.087, "shots_on_target": 0.2151, "big_chances_created": 0.1081, "xgot": 0.0469, "ball_carries": 8.8714, "total_progression": 30.8434, "progressive_carries": 0.5395, "key_pass": 0.9678, "shots_off_target": 0.2276 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0333, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9959, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8395, "after": 0.8281 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2053, "after": 0.2151 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1496, "after": 0.1446 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8281, "tackles": 1.5506, "tackles_won": 0.9468, "clearances": 2.0522, "aerial_won": 0.7296, "total_shots": 0.4427, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 29.3177, "accurate_pass": 25.025, "duels_won": 2.5503, "total_long_balls": 1.6687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8982, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5126, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5125, "crosses_total": 2.5947, "crosses_accurate": 0.8597, "touches": 42.3181, "possession_lost": 7.6122, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 3.2767, "aerial_lost": 1.0587, "total_contest": 1.1138, "won_contest": 0.6821, "ball_recovery": 2.1224, "challenges_lost": 0.8932, "fouls": 0.5552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6924, "goals": 0.1229, "goal_rate": 0.1229, "assists": 0.1446, "assist_rate": 0.1446, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "expected_assists": 0.087, "shots_on_target": 0.2151, "big_chances_created": 0.1081, "xgot": 0.0469, "ball_carries": 8.8714, "total_progression": 30.8434, "progressive_carries": 0.5395, "key_pass": 0.9678, "shots_off_target": 0.2276 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8281, "tackles": 1.5506, "tackles_won": 0.9468, "clearances": 2.0522, "aerial_won": 0.7296, "total_shots": 0.4427, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 29.3177, "accurate_pass": 25.025, "duels_won": 2.5503, "total_long_balls": 1.6687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8982, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5126, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5125, "crosses_total": 2.5947, "crosses_accurate": 0.8597, "touches": 42.3181, "possession_lost": 7.6122, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 3.2767, "aerial_lost": 1.0587, "total_contest": 1.1138, "won_contest": 0.6821, "ball_recovery": 2.1224, "challenges_lost": 0.8932, "fouls": 0.5552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6924, "goals": 0.1229, "goal_rate": 0.1229, "assists": 0.1446, "assist_rate": 0.1446, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "expected_assists": 0.087, "shots_on_target": 0.2151, "big_chances_created": 0.1081, "xgot": 0.0469, "ball_carries": 8.8714, "total_progression": 30.8434, "progressive_carries": 0.5395, "key_pass": 0.9678, "shots_off_target": 0.2276, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.501, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8281, "tackles": 1.5506, "tackles_won": 0.9468, "clearances": 2.0522, "aerial_won": 0.7296, "total_shots": 0.4427, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 29.3177, "accurate_pass": 25.025, "duels_won": 2.5503, "total_long_balls": 1.6687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8982, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5126, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5125, "crosses_total": 2.5947, "crosses_accurate": 0.8597, "touches": 42.3181, "possession_lost": 7.6122, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 3.2767, "aerial_lost": 1.0587, "total_contest": 1.1138, "won_contest": 0.6821, "ball_recovery": 2.1224, "challenges_lost": 0.8932, "fouls": 0.5552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6924, "goal_rate": 0.1229, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1446, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "expected_assists": 0.087, "shots_on_target": 0.2151, "big_chances_created": 0.1081, "xgot": 0.0469, "ball_carries": 8.8714, "total_progression": 30.8434, "progressive_carries": 0.5395, "key_pass": 0.9678, "shots_off_target": 0.2276, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.501, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 0.9518, xG scale 1.4594, xA scale 1.5808, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8281, "tackles": 1.5506, "tackles_won": 0.9468, "clearances": 2.0522, "aerial_won": 0.7296, "total_shots": 0.4427, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 29.3177, "accurate_pass": 25.025, "duels_won": 2.5503, "total_long_balls": 1.6687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8982, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5126, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5125, "crosses_total": 2.5947, "crosses_accurate": 0.8597, "touches": 42.3181, "possession_lost": 7.6122, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 3.2767, "aerial_lost": 1.0587, "total_contest": 1.1138, "won_contest": 0.6821, "ball_recovery": 2.1224, "challenges_lost": 0.8932, "fouls": 0.5552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6924, "goal_rate": 0.1229, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1446, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0801, "expected_assists": 0.1375, "shots_on_target": 0.2151, "big_chances_created": 0.1081, "xgot": 0.0684, "ball_carries": 8.8714, "total_progression": 30.8434, "progressive_carries": 0.5395, "key_pass": 0.9678, "shots_off_target": 0.2276, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.501, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.389, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9518, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5711, "team_expected_assists": 0.9029, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4594, "xa_scale": 1.5808, "opponent_lambda": 1.392, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0549, "after": 0.0801 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.087, "after": 0.1375 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8281, "tackles": 1.5506, "tackles_won": 0.9468, "clearances": 2.0522, "aerial_won": 0.7296, "total_shots": 0.4427, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 29.3177, "accurate_pass": 25.025, "duels_won": 2.5503, "total_long_balls": 1.6687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8982, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5126, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5125, "crosses_total": 2.5947, "crosses_accurate": 0.8597, "touches": 42.3181, "possession_lost": 7.6122, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 3.2767, "aerial_lost": 1.0587, "total_contest": 1.1138, "won_contest": 0.6821, "ball_recovery": 2.1224, "challenges_lost": 0.8932, "fouls": 0.5552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6924, "goal_rate": 0.1229, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1446, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0801, "expected_assists": 0.1375, "shots_on_target": 0.2151, "big_chances_created": 0.1081, "xgot": 0.0684, "ball_carries": 8.8714, "total_progression": 30.8434, "progressive_carries": 0.5395, "key_pass": 0.9678, "shots_off_target": 0.2276, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.501, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3727, "fifa_rank": 3265.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8281, "tackles": 1.5506, "tackles_won": 0.9468, "clearances": 2.0522, "aerial_won": 0.7296, "total_shots": 0.4427, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 29.3177, "accurate_pass": 25.025, "duels_won": 2.5503, "total_long_balls": 1.6687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8982, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5126, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5125, "crosses_total": 2.5947, "crosses_accurate": 0.8597, "touches": 42.3181, "possession_lost": 7.6122, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 3.2767, "aerial_lost": 1.0587, "total_contest": 1.1138, "won_contest": 0.6821, "ball_recovery": 2.1224, "challenges_lost": 0.8932, "fouls": 0.5552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6924, "goal_rate": 0.1229, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1446, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0801, "expected_assists": 0.1375, "shots_on_target": 0.2151, "big_chances_created": 0.1081, "xgot": 0.0684, "ball_carries": 8.8714, "total_progression": 30.8434, "progressive_carries": 0.5395, "key_pass": 0.9678, "shots_off_target": 0.2276, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.501, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.077, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.077, "goal_rate": 0.1229, "scorer_weight": 0.1001, "squad_weight_total": 1.5573, "weight_share": 0.0643, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sidiki Cherif", "weight": 0.3612, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3612, "runner_up": "Jack Rudoni", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2788 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8281, "tackles": 1.5506, "tackles_won": 0.9468, "clearances": 2.0522, "aerial_won": 0.7296, "total_shots": 0.4427, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 29.3177, "accurate_pass": 25.025, "duels_won": 2.5503, "total_long_balls": 1.6687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8982, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5126, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5125, "crosses_total": 2.5947, "crosses_accurate": 0.8597, "touches": 42.3181, "possession_lost": 7.6122, "dispossessed": 0.3358, "duels_lost": 3.2767, "aerial_lost": 1.0587, "total_contest": 1.1138, "won_contest": 0.6821, "ball_recovery": 2.1224, "challenges_lost": 0.8932, "fouls": 0.5552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6924, "goal_rate": 0.1229, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1446, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0801, "expected_assists": 0.1375, "shots_on_target": 0.2151, "big_chances_created": 0.1081, "xgot": 0.0684, "ball_carries": 8.8714, "total_progression": 30.8434, "progressive_carries": 0.5395, "key_pass": 0.9678, "shots_off_target": 0.2276, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.501, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.077, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1285, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1285, "assist_rate": 0.1446, "provider_weight": 0.1719, "squad_weight_total": 0.8636, "weight_share": 0.199, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jack Rudoni", "weight": 0.1904, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1904, "runner_up": "Jay DaSilva", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1719, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sidiki Cherif" ] } ] } } ] }, "Matt Grimes": { "player_id": 340713, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 178, "market_value": 5200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1075, "assist_rate": 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0765 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0563, "total": 6.859, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.076464 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03028 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017986 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01754 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.011985 } ], "others_margin": -0.056234 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9953, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7968, "expected_assists": 0.068, "assists": 0.0636, "assist_rate": 0.0636, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goals": 0.0568, "goal_rate": 0.0568, "shots_on_target": 0.1526, "total_shots": 0.5926, "rating": 6.859, "minutes": 87.85, "total_pass": 47.219, "accurate_pass": 40.187, "duels_won": 2.6404, "total_long_balls": 6.0282, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8083, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2028, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9843, "crosses_total": 2.0676, "crosses_accurate": 0.5158, "touches": 57.6359, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7153, "aerial_won": 0.7309, "aerial_lost": 1.2986, "interceptions": 0.3916, "tackles_won": 0.6086, "tackles": 1.4376, "clearances": 2.2262, "total_contest": 0.126, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.7791, "fouls_drawn": 0.4719, "blocks": 0.2479, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.5889, "total_progression": 53.1234, "progressive_carries": 0.2518, "shots_off_target": 0.44 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9953, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0333)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7968, "expected_assists": 0.068, "assists": 0.0615, "assist_rate": 0.0615, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "shots_on_target": 0.1475, "total_shots": 0.5891, "rating": 6.859, "minutes": 87.85, "total_pass": 47.219, "accurate_pass": 40.187, "duels_won": 2.6404, "total_long_balls": 6.0282, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8083, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2028, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9843, "crosses_total": 2.1613, "crosses_accurate": 0.5158, "touches": 57.6359, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7153, "aerial_won": 0.7309, "aerial_lost": 1.2986, "interceptions": 0.3785, "tackles_won": 0.5883, "tackles": 1.4376, "clearances": 2.2262, "total_contest": 0.126, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.7531, "fouls_drawn": 0.4887, "blocks": 0.2479, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.5889, "total_progression": 53.1234, "progressive_carries": 0.2518, "shots_off_target": 0.44 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0333, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9761, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.0676, "after": 2.1613 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7791, "after": 0.7531 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6086, "after": 0.5883 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.4719, "after": 0.4887 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3916, "after": 0.3785 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1526, "after": 0.1475 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7968, "expected_assists": 0.068, "assists": 0.0615, "assist_rate": 0.0615, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "shots_on_target": 0.1475, "total_shots": 0.5891, "rating": 6.859, "minutes": 87.85, "total_pass": 47.219, "accurate_pass": 40.187, "duels_won": 2.6404, "total_long_balls": 6.0282, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8083, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2028, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9843, "crosses_total": 2.1613, "crosses_accurate": 0.5158, "touches": 57.6359, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7153, "aerial_won": 0.7309, "aerial_lost": 1.2986, "interceptions": 0.3785, "tackles_won": 0.5883, "tackles": 1.4376, "clearances": 2.2262, "total_contest": 0.126, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.7531, "fouls_drawn": 0.4887, "blocks": 0.2479, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.5889, "total_progression": 53.1234, "progressive_carries": 0.2518, "shots_off_target": 0.44 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7968, "expected_assists": 0.068, "assists": 0.0615, "assist_rate": 0.0615, "expected_goals": 0.036, "goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "shots_on_target": 0.1181, "total_shots": 0.4715, "rating": 6.859, "minutes": 87.85, "total_pass": 47.219, "accurate_pass": 40.187, "duels_won": 2.6404, "total_long_balls": 6.0282, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8083, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2028, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9843, "crosses_total": 2.1613, "crosses_accurate": 0.5158, "touches": 57.6359, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7153, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.2986, "interceptions": 0.3785, "tackles_won": 0.5883, "tackles": 1.4376, "clearances": 2.2262, "total_contest": 0.126, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.7531, "fouls_drawn": 0.4887, "blocks": 0.2479, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.5889, "total_progression": 53.1234, "progressive_carries": 0.2518, "shots_off_target": 0.3522, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8004, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.284, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.284, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8004, "skill_edge": -0.1558, "height_edge": 0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.4759, "defender_skill": 0.8221, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "market_value": 42000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8221 } ], "xg_override": 0.036 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7309, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5891, "after": 0.4715 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.44, "after": 0.3522 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1475, "after": 0.1181 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0549, "after": 0.0439 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.045, "after": 0.036 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7968, "expected_assists": 0.068, "assist_rate": 0.0615, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1181, "total_shots": 0.4715, "rating": 6.859, "minutes": 87.85, "total_pass": 47.219, "accurate_pass": 40.187, "duels_won": 2.6404, "total_long_balls": 6.0282, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8083, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2028, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9843, "crosses_total": 2.1613, "crosses_accurate": 0.5158, "touches": 57.6359, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7153, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.2986, "interceptions": 0.3785, "tackles_won": 0.5883, "tackles": 1.4376, "clearances": 2.2262, "total_contest": 0.126, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.7531, "fouls_drawn": 0.4887, "blocks": 0.2479, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.5889, "total_progression": 53.1234, "progressive_carries": 0.2518, "shots_off_target": 0.3522, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8004, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.284, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 0.9518, xG scale 1.4594, xA scale 1.5808, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7968, "expected_assists": 0.1075, "assist_rate": 0.0615, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1181, "total_shots": 0.4715, "rating": 6.859, "minutes": 87.85, "total_pass": 47.219, "accurate_pass": 40.187, "duels_won": 2.6404, "total_long_balls": 6.0282, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8083, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2028, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9843, "crosses_total": 2.1613, "crosses_accurate": 0.5158, "touches": 57.6359, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7153, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.2986, "interceptions": 0.3785, "tackles_won": 0.5883, "tackles": 1.4376, "clearances": 2.2262, "total_contest": 0.126, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.7531, "fouls_drawn": 0.4887, "blocks": 0.2479, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.5889, "total_progression": 53.1234, "progressive_carries": 0.2518, "shots_off_target": 0.3522, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8004, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.284, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0919, "creation_factor": 0.9449 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.389, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9518, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5711, "team_expected_assists": 0.9029, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4594, "xa_scale": 1.5808, "opponent_lambda": 1.392, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.036, "after": 0.0525 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.068, "after": 0.1075 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7968, "expected_assists": 0.1075, "assist_rate": 0.0615, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1181, "total_shots": 0.4715, "rating": 6.859, "minutes": 87.85, "total_pass": 47.219, "accurate_pass": 40.187, "duels_won": 2.6404, "total_long_balls": 6.0282, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8083, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2028, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9843, "crosses_total": 2.1613, "crosses_accurate": 0.5158, "touches": 57.6359, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7153, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.2986, "interceptions": 0.3785, "tackles_won": 0.5883, "tackles": 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"contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0365, "total": -0.1204, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023525, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.053153 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.029444 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.023179 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.011749 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.01071 } ], "others_margin": -0.036433 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.965742588043213, "model_output": 6.9657, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0339 } ], 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363894, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0424, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363890, "match_date": "2026-10-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", 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"league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1925, "expected_assists": 0.0661, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 18, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester 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"expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 49, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363633, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "expected_assists": 0.0136, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3465, "combined_rank_score": 1457.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 229.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2685.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8616, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bobby Thomas", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Eric Dier", "ranking": 3460 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Nygren", "ranking": 3461 }, { "player_name": "Arnau Tenas", "ranking": 3462 }, { "player_name": "Yvon Mvogo", "ranking": 3463 }, { "player_name": "Duje Ćaleta-Car", "ranking": 3464 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Clinton Mata", "ranking": 3466 }, { "player_name": "Emerson Palmieri", "ranking": 3467 }, { "player_name": "Jakub Moder", "ranking": 3468 }, { "player_name": "Nabil Bentaleb", "ranking": 3469 }, { "player_name": "Ludovic Ajorque", "ranking": 3470 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", 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14.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6614, "tackles": 0.8706, "tackles_won": 0.4963, "clearances": 2.7202, "aerial_won": 1.1592, "total_shots": 0.593, "rating": 6.8616, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 32.1407, "accurate_pass": 25.281, "duels_won": 4.8267, "total_long_balls": 4.77, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8631, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8164, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.7393, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3243, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5417, "crosses_total": 0.0778, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.2468, "possession_lost": 7.4002, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0575, "aerial_lost": 1.6406, "total_contest": 0.2839, "won_contest": 0.0777, "ball_recovery": 3.2704, "challenges_lost": 0.669, "fouls": 0.6195, "fouls_drawn": 0.7327, "blocks": 1.0315, 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{ "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.050423 } ], "others_margin": -0.079693 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.7201638221740723, "model_output": 2.7202, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0028 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.643 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1134 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1112 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1059 } ], "others": 0.3268, "total": 2.7202, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.879844 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.373534 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.053495 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.04983 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.045263 } ], "others_margin": 0.127977 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.159239411354065, "model_output": 1.1592, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8507 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.314 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1132 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0703 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0495 } ], "others": 0.0886, "total": 1.1592, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.964993 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.469815 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.126763 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.071318 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.047358 } ], "others_margin": 0.079523 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5930337309837341, "model_output": 0.593, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3623 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2452 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.023 } ], "others": -0.0382, "total": 0.593, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.362345 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.245227 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.032893 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024091 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.022992 } ], "others_margin": -0.038156 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.861578941345215, "model_output": 6.8616, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0398 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0229 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0148 } ], "others": 0.0052, "total": 6.8616, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.039766 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.027842 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.022949 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016529 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.014791 } ], "others_margin": 0.005123 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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20.5102, "duels_won": 3.9159, "total_long_balls": 3.8699, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5116, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4542, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5804, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9298, "crosses_total": 0.0637, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.3308, "possession_lost": 6.0037, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4805, "aerial_lost": 1.6664, "total_contest": 0.2304, "won_contest": 0.063, "ball_recovery": 2.6532, "challenges_lost": 0.6795, "fouls": 0.4947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5863, "blocks": 0.8368, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0574, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0742, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.8238, "total_progression": 11.1092, "progressive_carries": 0.0631, "key_pass": 0.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.4811, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, 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"others_margin": -0.006115 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.779652118682861, "model_output": 6.7797, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": 0.0163, "total": 6.7797, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.022309 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018819 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.014867 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0133, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles": 0.4803, "tackles_won": 0.268, "clearances": 1.4313, "aerial_won": 0.8484, "total_shots": 0.2026, "rating": 6.7797, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 39.6396, "accurate_pass": 32.9903, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 6.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8294, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6422, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1609, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.9617, "possession_lost": 7.6898, "dispossessed": 0.5001, "duels_lost": 3.54, "aerial_lost": 1.2086, "total_contest": 0.2297, "won_contest": 0.2297, "ball_recovery": 2.6326, "challenges_lost": 0.318, "fouls": 1.5134, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.9039, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 29, "height": 178, "market_value": 14500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.056, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4103, "combined_rank_score": 2091.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 915.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 3267.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6643, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Victor Torp", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Adam Smith", "ranking": 4098 }, { "player_name": "Dayne St. Clair", "ranking": 4099 }, { "player_name": "Kieffer Moore", "ranking": 4100 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Giles", "ranking": 4101 }, { "player_name": "Alex Tóth", "ranking": 4102 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dro Fernández", "ranking": 4104 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Sández", "ranking": 4105 }, { "player_name": "Axel Tuanzebe", "ranking": 4106 }, { "player_name": "Abdoul Ouattara", "ranking": 4107 }, { "player_name": "Liam Millar", "ranking": 4108 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", 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"prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (4 historical appearances) to 23.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.70); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 25.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4026, "expected_assists": 0.0338, "assists": 0.0377, "assist_rate": 0.0377, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "shots_on_target": 0.1258, "total_shots": 0.2834, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 17.62, "total_pass": 7.1474, "accurate_pass": 6.1874, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.2267, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9129, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3724, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2345, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8151, "crosses_total": 1.4194, "crosses_accurate": 0.5065, "touches": 10.2447, "possession_lost": 2.5191, "dispossessed": 0.1927, 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.047715 } ], "others_margin": 0.112076 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.28339627385139465, "model_output": 0.2834, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3647 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.258 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0473 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0218 } ], "others": 0.0286, "total": 0.2834, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.364734 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.258035 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.04733 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.035059 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.021806 } ], "others_margin": 0.028629 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.664294242858887, "model_output": 6.6643, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0579 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0297, "total": 6.6643, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059592 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.057932 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02874 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008284 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.007478 } ], "others_margin": -0.02969 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0115, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "assists": 0.0381, "assist_rate": 0.0381, "expected_goals": 0.0261, "goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0418, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.2867, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 17.62, "total_pass": 7.2296, "accurate_pass": 6.2586, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.2293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8705, "crosses_total": 1.4357, "crosses_accurate": 0.5123, "touches": 10.3625, "possession_lost": 2.5481, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.6536, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 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"total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.216, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.88, "projection_minutes": 17.62, "minutes_scale": 1.3553, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.552, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "assists": 0.051, "assist_rate": 0.051, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.056, "shots_on_target": 0.1705, "total_shots": 0.3865, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.8858, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2674, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.3135, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2641, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7204, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.216, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.552, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "goal_rate": 0.056, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1705, "total_shots": 0.3865, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.8858, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2674, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.3135, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2641, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7204, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.216, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.145, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 0.9518, xG scale 1.4594, xA scale 1.5808, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.552, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.056, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1705, "total_shots": 0.3865, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.8858, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2674, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.3135, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2641, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7204, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.216, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.145, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": 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73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.552, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.056, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1705, "total_shots": 0.3865, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.8858, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2674, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, 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"weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sidiki Cherif", "weight": 0.3612, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3612, "runner_up": "Jack Rudoni", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2788 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.552, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.056, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1705, "total_shots": 0.3865, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.8858, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2674, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.3135, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2641, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7204, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.216, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.145, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0354, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0498, "finishing_factor": 1.2412, "creation_factor": 1.0477, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0498, "assist_rate": 0.051, "provider_weight": 0.0541, "squad_weight_total": 0.8636, "weight_share": 0.0626, "creation_factor": 1.0477, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jack Rudoni", "weight": 0.1904, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1904, "runner_up": "Jay DaSilva", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1719, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sidiki Cherif" ] } ] } } ] }, "Josh Eccles": { "player_id": 944245, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 28, "height": 181, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.029, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0168, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0282, "finishing_factor": 0.9245, "creation_factor": 0.93, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4428, "combined_rank_score": 2449.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4749.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Josh Eccles", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Wilfred Ndidi", "ranking": 4423 }, { "player_name": "Danel Sinani", "ranking": 4424 }, { "player_name": "Jimmy Dunne", "ranking": 4425 }, { "player_name": "Alan Browne", "ranking": 4426 }, { "player_name": "Oh Hyeon Gyu", "ranking": 4427 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Evren Eren Elmalı", "ranking": 4429 }, { "player_name": "Mikey Johnston", "ranking": 4430 }, { "player_name": "Dorgeles Nene", "ranking": 4431 }, { "player_name": "Josh Laurent", "ranking": 4432 }, { "player_name": "Matěj Šín", "ranking": 4433 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.290281584086227, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5131946174584648, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5177, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Coventry City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€9,600,000) scaled to 22.3 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0.07, "goal_rate": 0.07, "shots_on_target": 0.6, "shots_off_target": 0.5, "blocks": 0.3, "big_chances_created": 0.11, "big_chances_missed": 0.06, "xgot": 0.062, "ball_carries": 31.0, "total_progression": 81.0, "progressive_carries": 7.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9600000, "quality_factor": 0.5177 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 22.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4458, "assists": 0.0297, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "total_shots": 0.3467, "total_pass": 13.1265, "accurate_pass": 10.6498, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "duels_won": 1.5603, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 22.29, "total_long_balls": 1.2383, "accurate_long_balls": 0.743, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2011, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2104, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9534, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.715, "crosses_total": 0.3467, "crosses_accurate": 0.1734, "touches": 16.8415, 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"progressive_carries": 1.7337, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4458, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "total_shots": 0.3467, "total_pass": 13.1265, "accurate_pass": 10.6498, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "duels_won": 1.5603, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 22.29, "total_long_balls": 1.2383, "accurate_long_balls": 0.743, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2011, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2104, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9534, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.715, "crosses_total": 0.3467, "crosses_accurate": 0.1734, "touches": 16.8415, "possession_lost": 2.13, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1.065, 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"step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 0.9518, xG scale 1.4594, xA scale 1.5808, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4458, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.029, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "total_shots": 0.3467, "total_pass": 13.1265, "accurate_pass": 10.6498, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "duels_won": 1.5603, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 22.29, "total_long_balls": 1.2383, "accurate_long_balls": 0.743, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2011, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2104, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9534, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.715, "crosses_total": 0.3467, "crosses_accurate": 0.1734, "touches": 16.8415, "possession_lost": 2.13, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1.065, "aerial_won": 0.322, "aerial_lost": 1.0, "interceptions": 0.2724, "tackles_won": 0.3467, "tackles": 0.4706, "clearances": 0.1981, "total_contest": 1.0154, "won_contest": 0.5696, "challenges_lost": 1.1, "fouls": 0.3963, "fouls_drawn": 0.2724, "goal_rate": 0.0173, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1486, "shots_off_target": 0.1238, "blocks": 0.0743, "big_chances_created": 0.0272, "big_chances_missed": 0.0149, "xgot": 0.0115, "ball_carries": 7.6778, "total_progression": 20.0613, "progressive_carries": 1.7337, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.145, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9245, "creation_factor": 0.93 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.389, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9518, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5711, "team_expected_assists": 0.9029, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4594, "xa_scale": 1.5808, "opponent_lambda": 1.392, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.513 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0228, "after": 0.0171 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0357, "after": 0.029 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4005, "combined_rank_score": 1987.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 3276.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6393, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Loum Tchaouna", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Turrientes", "ranking": 4000 }, { "player_name": "Agirrezabala", "ranking": 4001 }, { "player_name": "Enzo Bardeli", "ranking": 4002 }, { "player_name": "Andrés García", "ranking": 4003 }, { "player_name": "Antoni Milambo", "ranking": 4004 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marco Grüll", "ranking": 4006 }, { "player_name": "Soungoutou Magassa", "ranking": 4007 }, { "player_name": "Mikel Amondarain", "ranking": 4008 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Velázquez", "ranking": 4009 }, { "player_name": "Vicente Pizarro", "ranking": 4010 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.765, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", 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0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2484 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0141 } ], "others": 0.0241, "total": 0.4229, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.443063 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06062 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.04837 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.037748 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.035885 } ], "others_margin": 0.058688 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.639343738555908, "model_output": 6.6393, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": 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2.145, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.347, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.0684, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2972, "total_shots": 0.8405, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.4548, "rating": 6.6311, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 11.9355, "accurate_pass": 8.4016, "duels_won": 3.0726, "total_long_balls": 0.6162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2597, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6178, "crosses_total": 2.1892, "crosses_accurate": 0.375, "touches": 23.1884, "possession_lost": 9.3607, "dispossessed": 1.1078, "duels_lost": 6.1693, "aerial_lost": 1.4123, "total_contest": 1.4396, "won_contest": 0.3057, "ball_recovery": 1.7736, "challenges_lost": 0.3229, "fouls": 1.2589, "fouls_drawn": 1.1176, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 1.1265, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0368, 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"position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 29, "height": 178, "market_value": 14500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.056, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363250, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": 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"96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4103, "combined_rank_score": 2091.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 915.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 3267.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6643, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Victor Torp", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Adam Smith", "ranking": 4098 }, { "player_name": "Dayne St. Clair", "ranking": 4099 }, { "player_name": "Kieffer Moore", "ranking": 4100 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Giles", "ranking": 4101 }, { "player_name": "Alex Tóth", "ranking": 4102 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dro Fernández", "ranking": 4104 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Sández", "ranking": 4105 }, { "player_name": "Axel Tuanzebe", "ranking": 4106 }, { "player_name": "Abdoul Ouattara", "ranking": 4107 }, { "player_name": "Liam Millar", "ranking": 4108 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.505, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.703, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0115, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Coventry City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 25.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (4 historical appearances) to 23.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.70); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 25.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4026, "expected_assists": 0.0338, "assists": 0.0377, "assist_rate": 0.0377, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "shots_on_target": 0.1258, "total_shots": 0.2834, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 17.62, "total_pass": 7.1474, "accurate_pass": 6.1874, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.2267, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9129, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3724, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2345, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8151, "crosses_total": 1.4194, "crosses_accurate": 0.5065, "touches": 10.2447, "possession_lost": 2.5191, "dispossessed": 0.1927, "duels_lost": 0.6462, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1268 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.057 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": 0.0134, "total": 0.1258, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.509172 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.354454 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.179971 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.052933 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.047715 } ], "others_margin": 0.112076 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.28339627385139465, "model_output": 0.2834, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3647 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.258 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0473 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0218 } ], "others": 0.0286, "total": 0.2834, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.364734 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.258035 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.04733 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.035059 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.021806 } ], "others_margin": 0.028629 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.664294242858887, "model_output": 6.6643, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0579 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0297, "total": 6.6643, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059592 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.057932 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02874 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008284 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.007478 } ], "others_margin": -0.02969 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0115, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "assists": 0.0381, "assist_rate": 0.0381, "expected_goals": 0.0261, "goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0418, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.2867, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 17.62, "total_pass": 7.2296, "accurate_pass": 6.2586, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.2293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8705, "crosses_total": 1.4357, "crosses_accurate": 0.5123, "touches": 10.3625, "possession_lost": 2.5481, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.6536, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, "fouls": 0.2293, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1949, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0073, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1594 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14500000, "quality_factor": 0.5737, "boost_factor": 1.0115, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0120)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4073, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "assists": 0.0376, "assist_rate": 0.0376, "expected_goals": 0.0261, "goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "shots_on_target": 0.1258, "total_shots": 0.2833, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 17.62, "total_pass": 7.2296, "accurate_pass": 6.2586, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.2293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9349, 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73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.552, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.056, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1705, "total_shots": 0.3865, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, "possession_lost": 3.4534, "dispossessed": 0.1949, "duels_lost": 0.8858, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2674, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2293, 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"weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sidiki Cherif", "weight": 0.3612, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3612, "runner_up": "Jack Rudoni", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2788 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.552, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.056, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1705, "total_shots": 0.3865, "rating": 6.6643, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 9.7981, "accurate_pass": 8.4821, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8814, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6009, "crosses_total": 1.9479, "crosses_accurate": 0.6943, "touches": 14.0441, 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"params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0498, "assist_rate": 0.051, "provider_weight": 0.0541, "squad_weight_total": 0.8636, "weight_share": 0.0626, "creation_factor": 1.0477, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jack Rudoni", "weight": 0.1904, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1904, "runner_up": "Jay DaSilva", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1719, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sidiki Cherif" ] } ] } } ] }, "Josh Eccles": { "player_id": 944245, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 28, "height": 181, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.029, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 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match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.167 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.056 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0367, "total": 0.6585, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.166958 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055994 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.019068 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.014141 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.012892 } ], "others_margin": -0.036576 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.814239978790283, "model_output": 6.8142, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": 0.0182, "total": 6.8142, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.020737 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01378 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012735 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011313 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.009533 } ], "others_margin": 0.018176 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 15, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9949, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8092, "tackles": 1.2792, "tackles_won": 0.7108, "clearances": 5.4207, "aerial_won": 1.4901, "total_shots": 0.6552, "rating": 6.8142, "minutes": 86.64, "total_pass": 39.8928, "accurate_pass": 33.2252, "duels_won": 3.3629, "total_long_balls": 7.1902, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6092, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5337, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.409, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6914, "crosses_total": 1.4, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.1531, "possession_lost": 12.0803, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4223, "aerial_lost": 1.239, "total_contest": 0.3014, "won_contest": 0.3014, "ball_recovery": 3.0943, "challenges_lost": 0.4709, "fouls": 0.7124, "fouls_drawn": 0.7525, "blocks": 0.2841, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1587, "assist_rate": 0.1587, "expected_goals": 0.0509, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.1587, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0105, "ball_carries": 12.8717, "total_progression": 53.2873, "progressive_carries": 0.8331, "key_pass": 0.537, "shots_off_target": 0.4965 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 660000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9949, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 15, "history_shrink": 0.25, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0076)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8031, "tackles": 1.2792, "tackles_won": 0.7054, "clearances": 5.4207, "aerial_won": 1.4901, "total_shots": 0.6602, "rating": 6.8142, "minutes": 86.64, "total_pass": 39.8928, "accurate_pass": 33.2252, "duels_won": 3.3629, "total_long_balls": 7.1902, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6092, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5337, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.409, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6914, "crosses_total": 1.4102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.1531, "possession_lost": 12.0803, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4223, "aerial_lost": 1.239, "total_contest": 0.3014, "won_contest": 0.3014, "ball_recovery": 3.0943, "challenges_lost": 0.4709, "fouls": 0.7279, "fouls_drawn": 0.7468, "blocks": 0.2841, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1575, "assist_rate": 0.1575, "expected_goals": 0.0509, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.1575, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0105, "ball_carries": 12.8717, "total_progression": 53.2873, "progressive_carries": 0.8331, "key_pass": 0.537, "shots_off_target": 0.4965 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0076, "history_matches": 15, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9627, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7124, "after": 0.7279 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.4, "after": 1.4102 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8092, "after": 0.8031 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7525, "after": 0.7468 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7108, "after": 0.7054 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6552, "after": 0.6602 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8031, "tackles": 1.2792, "tackles_won": 0.7054, "clearances": 5.4207, "aerial_won": 1.4901, "total_shots": 0.6602, "rating": 6.8142, "minutes": 86.64, "total_pass": 39.8928, "accurate_pass": 33.2252, "duels_won": 3.3629, "total_long_balls": 7.1902, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6092, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5337, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.409, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6914, "crosses_total": 1.4102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.1531, "possession_lost": 12.0803, "dispossessed": 0.0, 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7.1902, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6092, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5337, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.409, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6914, "crosses_total": 1.4102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.1531, "possession_lost": 12.0803, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4223, "aerial_lost": 1.239, "total_contest": 0.3014, "won_contest": 0.3014, "ball_recovery": 3.0943, "challenges_lost": 0.4709, "fouls": 0.7279, "fouls_drawn": 0.7468, "blocks": 0.2841, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1575, "assist_rate": 0.1575, "expected_goals": 0.0509, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.1575, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0105, "ball_carries": 12.8717, "total_progression": 53.2873, "progressive_carries": 0.8331, "key_pass": 0.537, "shots_off_target": 0.4965, "opponent_faced": "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8031, "tackles": 1.2792, "tackles_won": 0.7054, "clearances": 5.4207, "aerial_won": 1.4901, "total_shots": 0.6602, "rating": 6.8142, "minutes": 86.64, "total_pass": 39.8928, "accurate_pass": 33.2252, "duels_won": 3.3629, "total_long_balls": 7.1902, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6092, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5337, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.409, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6914, "crosses_total": 1.4102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.1531, "possession_lost": 12.0803, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4223, "aerial_lost": 1.239, "total_contest": 0.3014, "won_contest": 0.3014, "ball_recovery": 3.0943, "challenges_lost": 0.4709, "fouls": 0.7279, "fouls_drawn": 0.7468, "blocks": 0.2841, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1575, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0509, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.1575, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0105, "ball_carries": 12.8717, "total_progression": 53.2873, "progressive_carries": 0.8331, "key_pass": 0.537, "shots_off_target": 0.4965, "opponent_faced": "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.3995, xG scale 0.9947, xA scale 1.1255, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8031, "tackles": 1.2792, "tackles_won": 0.7054, "clearances": 5.4207, "aerial_won": 1.4901, "total_shots": 0.6602, "rating": 6.8142, "minutes": 86.64, "total_pass": 39.8928, "accurate_pass": 33.2252, "duels_won": 3.3629, "total_long_balls": 7.1902, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6092, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5337, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.409, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6914, "crosses_total": 1.4102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.1531, "possession_lost": 12.0803, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4223, "aerial_lost": 1.239, "total_contest": 0.3014, "won_contest": 0.3014, "ball_recovery": 3.0943, "challenges_lost": 0.4709, "fouls": 0.7279, "fouls_drawn": 0.7468, "blocks": 0.2841, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1575, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0506, "expected_assists": 0.019, "shots_on_target": 0.1575, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0104, "ball_carries": 12.8717, "total_progression": 53.2873, "progressive_carries": 0.8331, "key_pass": 0.537, "shots_off_target": 0.4965, "opponent_faced": "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.392, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3995, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8039, "team_expected_assists": 0.9048, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9947, "xa_scale": 1.1255, "opponent_lambda": 1.389, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8031, "tackles": 1.2792, "tackles_won": 0.7054, "clearances": 5.4207, "aerial_won": 1.4901, "total_shots": 0.6602, "rating": 6.8142, "minutes": 86.64, "total_pass": 39.8928, "accurate_pass": 33.2252, "duels_won": 3.3629, "total_long_balls": 7.1902, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6092, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5337, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.409, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6914, "crosses_total": 1.4102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.1531, "possession_lost": 12.0803, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4223, "aerial_lost": 1.239, "total_contest": 0.3014, "won_contest": 0.3014, "ball_recovery": 3.0943, "challenges_lost": 0.4709, "fouls": 0.7279, "fouls_drawn": 0.7468, "blocks": 0.2841, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1575, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0506, "expected_assists": 0.019, "shots_on_target": 0.1575, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0104, "ball_carries": 12.8717, "total_progression": 53.2873, "progressive_carries": 0.8331, "key_pass": 0.537, "shots_off_target": 0.4965, "opponent_faced": "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4049, "fifa_rank": 3263.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8031, "tackles": 1.2792, "tackles_won": 0.7054, "clearances": 5.4207, "aerial_won": 1.4901, "total_shots": 0.6602, "rating": 6.8142, "minutes": 86.64, "total_pass": 39.8928, "accurate_pass": 33.2252, "duels_won": 3.3629, "total_long_balls": 7.1902, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6092, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5337, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.409, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6914, "crosses_total": 1.4102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.1531, "possession_lost": 12.0803, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4223, "aerial_lost": 1.239, "total_contest": 0.3014, "won_contest": 0.3014, "ball_recovery": 3.0943, "challenges_lost": 0.4709, "fouls": 0.7279, "fouls_drawn": 0.7468, "blocks": 0.2841, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1575, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0506, "expected_assists": 0.019, "shots_on_target": 0.1575, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0104, "ball_carries": 12.8717, "total_progression": 53.2873, "progressive_carries": 0.8331, "key_pass": 0.537, "shots_off_target": 0.4965, "opponent_faced": "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0493, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0405, "squad_weight_total": 1.5422, "weight_share": 0.0262, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.6476, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6476, "runner_up": "Nilson Angulo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1838 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8031, "tackles": 1.2792, "tackles_won": 0.7054, "clearances": 5.4207, "aerial_won": 1.4901, "total_shots": 0.6602, "rating": 6.8142, "minutes": 86.64, "total_pass": 39.8928, "accurate_pass": 33.2252, "duels_won": 3.3629, "total_long_balls": 7.1902, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6092, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5337, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.409, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6914, "crosses_total": 1.4102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.1531, "possession_lost": 12.0803, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4223, "aerial_lost": 1.239, "total_contest": 0.3014, "won_contest": 0.3014, "ball_recovery": 3.0943, "challenges_lost": 0.4709, "fouls": 0.7279, "fouls_drawn": 0.7468, "blocks": 0.2841, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1575, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0506, "expected_assists": 0.019, "shots_on_target": 0.1575, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0104, "ball_carries": 12.8717, "total_progression": 53.2873, "progressive_carries": 0.8331, "key_pass": 0.537, "shots_off_target": 0.4965, "opponent_faced": "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0493, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0188, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0188, "assist_rate": 0.1575, "provider_weight": 0.0238, "squad_weight_total": 0.8379, "weight_share": 0.0283, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Granit Xhaka", "weight": 0.1462, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1462, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1325, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nordi Mukiele": { "player_id": 780014, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 185, "market_value": 17100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8716, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0932, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0636, "expected_assists": 0.044, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 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"England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 425, "combined_rank_score": 261.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 21.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 501.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8716, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nordi Mukiele", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Sandro", "ranking": 420 }, { "player_name": "Ismoilbek Usmonxo'jayev", "ranking": 421 }, { "player_name": "Seok-joo Yoon", "ranking": 422 }, { "player_name": "Harry Wilson", "ranking": 423 }, { "player_name": "Christos Tzolis", "ranking": 424 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dani Olmo", "ranking": 426 }, { "player_name": "Piotr Zieliński", "ranking": 427 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Gofurov", "ranking": 428 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhimkhalil Yuldoshev", "ranking": 429 }, { "player_name": "Iliman Ndiaye", "ranking": 430 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0033, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 90.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, 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], "others": -0.2801, "total": 4.1563, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125397 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.124228 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.097982 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.061044 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.046723 } ], "others_margin": -0.065216 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.036724090576172, "model_output": 2.0367, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.4018 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2024 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.105 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1102 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0954 } ], "others": -0.0616, "total": 2.0367, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.256447 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.10794 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.051728 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.051551 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.044451 } ], "others_margin": -0.029852 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.2681008577346802, "model_output": 1.2681, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5154 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0789 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0617 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0375 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0266 } ], "others": 0.1429, "total": 1.2681, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.515422 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.078878 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061689 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.037493 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.026601 } ], "others_margin": 0.142923 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.871560096740723, "model_output": 6.8716, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0217, "total": 6.8716, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.037099 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.026707 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014176 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.013587 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010523 } ], "others_margin": 0.021645 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0033, quality 0.602)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3197, "tackles": 1.9139, "tackles_won": 1.23, "clearances": 4.17, "aerial_won": 2.0434, "total_shots": 1.2723, "rating": 6.8716, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6647, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.9037, "fouls_drawn": 0.6686, "blocks": 0.6206, "goals": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "assists": 0.0256, "assist_rate": 0.0256, "expected_goals": 0.0937, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.2398, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0932, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 1.0325 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17100000, "quality_factor": 0.6016, "boost_factor": 1.0033, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0049)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3178, "tackles": 1.9139, "tackles_won": 1.2239, "clearances": 4.17, "aerial_won": 2.0434, "total_shots": 1.266, "rating": 6.8716, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 0.6206, "goals": 0.0506, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "assists": 0.0255, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "expected_goals": 0.0937, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0932, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 1.0325 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0049, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9248, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.6647, "after": 2.6561 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2723, "after": 1.266 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.23, "after": 1.2239 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3178, "tackles": 1.9139, "tackles_won": 1.2239, "clearances": 4.17, "aerial_won": 2.0434, "total_shots": 1.2711, "rating": 6.8716, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 0.6206, "goals": 0.0506, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "assists": 0.0255, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "expected_goals": 0.0937, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0932, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 1.0325 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3178, "tackles": 1.9139, "tackles_won": 1.2239, "clearances": 4.17, "aerial_won": 2.0434, "total_shots": 1.2711, "rating": 6.8716, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 0.6206, "goals": 0.0506, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "assists": 0.0255, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "expected_goals": 0.0937, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0932, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 1.0325, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534, "opponent_faced": "Jack Rudoni", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jack Rudoni", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3178, "tackles": 1.9139, "tackles_won": 1.2239, "clearances": 4.17, "aerial_won": 2.0434, "total_shots": 1.2711, "rating": 6.8716, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 0.6206, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0937, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0932, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 1.0325, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534, "opponent_faced": "Jack Rudoni", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.3995, xG scale 0.9947, xA scale 1.1255, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3178, "tackles": 1.9139, "tackles_won": 1.2239, "clearances": 4.17, "aerial_won": 2.0434, "total_shots": 1.2711, "rating": 6.8716, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 0.6206, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0932, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0927, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 1.0325, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534, "opponent_faced": "Jack Rudoni", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.392, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3995, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8039, "team_expected_assists": 0.9048, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9947, "xa_scale": 1.1255, "opponent_lambda": 1.389, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0652, "after": 0.0734 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3178, "tackles": 1.9139, "tackles_won": 1.2239, "clearances": 4.17, "aerial_won": 2.0434, "total_shots": 1.2711, "rating": 6.8716, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 0.6206, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0932, "expected_assists": 0.0734, 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"EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3178, "tackles": 1.9139, "tackles_won": 1.2239, "clearances": 4.17, "aerial_won": 2.0434, "total_shots": 1.2711, "rating": 6.8716, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 0.6206, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0932, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0927, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 1.0325, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534, "opponent_faced": "Jack Rudoni", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.089, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.089, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "scorer_weight": 0.0746, "squad_weight_total": 1.5422, "weight_share": 0.0483, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.6476, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6476, "runner_up": "Nilson Angulo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1838 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3178, "tackles": 1.9139, "tackles_won": 1.2239, "clearances": 4.17, "aerial_won": 2.0434, "total_shots": 1.2711, "rating": 6.8716, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1784 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0666 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0399 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0206 } ], "others": -0.0661, "total": 1.7413, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.166243 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104276 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.036317 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021615 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.011337 } ], "others_margin": -0.037211 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3547085225582123, "model_output": 0.3547, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1382 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0487 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0463, "total": 0.3547, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.138204 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048718 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.015241 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014889 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.5983, "tackles_won": 1.0515, "clearances": 3.9493, "aerial_won": 1.7375, "total_shots": 0.3539, "rating": 6.7292, "minutes": 86.5, "total_pass": 37.3241, "accurate_pass": 29.85, "duels_won": 4.9895, "total_long_balls": 4.2751, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1162, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8226, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3775, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4725, "crosses_total": 0.6665, "crosses_accurate": 0.1115, "touches": 59.8076, "possession_lost": 11.8583, "dispossessed": 0.2422, "duels_lost": 3.5391, "aerial_lost": 1.1253, "total_contest": 0.7187, "won_contest": 0.4245, "ball_recovery": 3.5583, "challenges_lost": 0.682, "fouls": 1.2211, "fouls_drawn": 1.2049, "blocks": 0.4924, "goals": 0.0, 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"blocks": 0.4924, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.013, "assist_rate": 0.013, "expected_goals": 0.0013, "expected_assists": 0.0313, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.5249, "total_progression": 25.0889, "progressive_carries": 0.6348, "key_pass": 0.4407, "shots_off_target": 0.3539 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2009, "tackles": 1.5983, "tackles_won": 1.0504, "clearances": 3.9493, "aerial_won": 1.7375, "total_shots": 0.3539, "rating": 6.7292, "minutes": 86.5, "total_pass": 37.3241, "accurate_pass": 29.85, "duels_won": 4.9895, "total_long_balls": 4.2751, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1162, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8226, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3775, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4725, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.3995, xG scale 0.9947, xA scale 1.1255, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2009, "tackles": 1.5983, "tackles_won": 1.0504, "clearances": 3.9493, "aerial_won": 1.7375, "total_shots": 0.3539, "rating": 6.7292, "minutes": 86.5, "total_pass": 37.3241, "accurate_pass": 29.85, "duels_won": 4.9895, "total_long_balls": 4.2751, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1162, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8226, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3775, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4725, "crosses_total": 0.6756, "crosses_accurate": 0.1115, "touches": 59.8076, "possession_lost": 11.8583, "dispossessed": 0.2422, "duels_lost": 3.5391, "aerial_lost": 1.1253, "total_contest": 0.7187, "won_contest": 0.4245, "ball_recovery": 3.5583, "challenges_lost": 0.682, "fouls": 1.2349, "fouls_drawn": 1.202, "blocks": 0.4924, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.013, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0013, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.5249, "total_progression": 25.0889, "progressive_carries": 0.6348, "key_pass": 0.4407, "shots_off_target": 0.3539, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74, "opponent_faced": "Sidiki Cherif", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9747, "creation_factor": 0.8 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"data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Noah Sadiki", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Andriy Lunin", "ranking": 1161 }, { "player_name": "Lee Joon-Ho", "ranking": 1162 }, { "player_name": "Seung-beom Ko", "ranking": 1163 }, { "player_name": "Seung-hyeon Cha", "ranking": 1164 }, { "player_name": "Mats Wieffer", "ranking": 1165 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kingsley Sarfo", "ranking": 1167 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Parra", "ranking": 1168 }, { "player_name": "Yaya Dukuly", "ranking": 1169 }, { "player_name": "Rustam Turdimurodov", "ranking": 1170 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Santos", "ranking": 1171 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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{ "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.080917 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.061495 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.034465 } ], "others_margin": -0.117772 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3306713402271271, "model_output": 0.3307, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.055 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0063, "total": 0.3307, "log_link": true, 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-0.027 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0239 } ], "others": -0.0828, "total": 0.8227, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142294 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.117336 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050328 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.027034 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.023883 } ], "others_margin": -0.08277 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.843328475952148, "model_output": 6.8433, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0409 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0287, "total": 6.8433, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.040878 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030751 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.022127 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017183 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01636 } ], "others_margin": -0.028639 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0093, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "assists": 0.1123, "assist_rate": 0.1123, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "goals": 0.0772, "goal_rate": 0.0772, "shots_on_target": 0.3337, "total_shots": 0.8303, "rating": 6.8433, "minutes": 85.87, "total_pass": 37.2144, "accurate_pass": 31.8426, "duels_won": 3.5252, "total_long_balls": 3.2945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9135, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7226, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1202, "crosses_total": 0.9441, "crosses_accurate": 0.109, "touches": 49.7012, "possession_lost": 8.7134, "dispossessed": 0.4304, "duels_lost": 3.2798, "aerial_won": 0.5138, "aerial_lost": 0.9164, "interceptions": 0.6497, "tackles_won": 0.6898, "tackles": 1.2027, "clearances": 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], "others_margin": 0.040418 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.708978176116943, "model_output": 6.709, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0507 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0456, "total": 6.709, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050714 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036873 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.027269 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.023995 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01051 } ], "others_margin": -0.045659 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0091, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6855, "expected_assists": 0.059, "assists": 0.075, "assist_rate": 0.075, "expected_goals": 0.1, "goals": 0.0936, "goal_rate": 0.0936, "shots_on_target": 0.4249, "total_shots": 1.1334, "rating": 6.709, "minutes": 72.58, "total_pass": 18.927, "accurate_pass": 14.3296, "duels_won": 3.2322, "total_long_balls": 2.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8543, "total_own_half_passes": 5.703, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6463, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6833, "crosses_total": 0.9857, "crosses_accurate": 0.3755, "touches": 29.9809, "possession_lost": 7.3352, "dispossessed": 0.539, "duels_lost": 3.476, "aerial_won": 0.28, "aerial_lost": 0.8135, "interceptions": 0.49, "tackles_won": 0.7693, "tackles": 1.4111, "clearances": 1.485, "total_contest": 1.2145, "won_contest": 0.5667, "challenges_lost": 0.6745, "fouls": 0.8013, "fouls_drawn": 0.9745, "blocks": 0.0289, "big_chances_created": 0.1368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0985, "ball_carries": 8.9104, "total_progression": 26.2955, "progressive_carries": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.7085 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0091, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0016)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6855, "expected_assists": 0.059, "assists": 0.0749, "assist_rate": 0.0749, "expected_goals": 0.1, "goals": 0.0935, "goal_rate": 0.0935, "shots_on_target": 0.4242, "total_shots": 1.1316, "rating": 6.709, "minutes": 72.58, "total_pass": 18.927, "accurate_pass": 14.3296, "duels_won": 3.2322, "total_long_balls": 2.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8543, "total_own_half_passes": 5.703, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6463, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6833, "crosses_total": 0.9841, "crosses_accurate": 0.3755, "touches": 29.9809, "possession_lost": 7.3352, "dispossessed": 0.539, "duels_lost": 3.476, "aerial_won": 0.28, "aerial_lost": 0.8135, "interceptions": 0.4892, "tackles_won": 0.7681, "tackles": 1.4111, "clearances": 1.485, "total_contest": 1.2145, "won_contest": 0.5667, "challenges_lost": 0.6745, "fouls": 0.8, "fouls_drawn": 0.9729, "blocks": 0.0289, "big_chances_created": 0.1368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0985, "ball_carries": 8.9104, "total_progression": 26.2955, "progressive_carries": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.7085 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0016, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8064, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6855, "expected_assists": 0.059, "assists": 0.0749, "assist_rate": 0.0749, "expected_goals": 0.1, "goals": 0.0935, "goal_rate": 0.0935, "shots_on_target": 0.4242, "total_shots": 1.1327, "rating": 6.709, "minutes": 72.58, "total_pass": 18.927, "accurate_pass": 14.3296, "duels_won": 3.2322, "total_long_balls": 2.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8543, "total_own_half_passes": 5.703, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6463, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6833, "crosses_total": 0.9841, "crosses_accurate": 0.3755, "touches": 29.9809, "possession_lost": 7.3352, "dispossessed": 0.539, "duels_lost": 3.476, "aerial_won": 0.28, "aerial_lost": 0.8135, "interceptions": 0.4892, "tackles_won": 0.7681, "tackles": 1.4111, "clearances": 1.485, "total_contest": 1.2145, "won_contest": 0.5667, "challenges_lost": 0.6745, "fouls": 0.8, "fouls_drawn": 0.9729, "blocks": 0.0289, "big_chances_created": 0.1368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0985, "ball_carries": 8.9104, "total_progression": 26.2955, "progressive_carries": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.7085 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6855, "expected_assists": 0.059, "assists": 0.0749, "assist_rate": 0.0749, "expected_goals": 0.1145, "goals": 0.1071, "goal_rate": 0.1071, "shots_on_target": 0.4858, "total_shots": 1.2971, "rating": 6.709, "minutes": 72.58, "total_pass": 18.927, "accurate_pass": 14.3296, "duels_won": 3.2322, "total_long_balls": 2.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8543, "total_own_half_passes": 5.703, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6463, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6833, "crosses_total": 0.9841, "crosses_accurate": 0.3755, "touches": 29.9809, "possession_lost": 7.3352, "dispossessed": 0.539, "duels_lost": 3.476, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8135, "interceptions": 0.4892, "tackles_won": 0.7681, "tackles": 1.4111, "clearances": 1.485, "total_contest": 1.2145, "won_contest": 0.5667, "challenges_lost": 0.6745, "fouls": 0.8, "fouls_drawn": 0.9729, "blocks": 0.0289, "big_chances_created": 0.1368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 8.9104, "total_progression": 26.2955, "progressive_carries": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.8113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1451, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.519, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matt Grimes", "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.519, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1451, "skill_edge": 0.1027, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.704, "defender_skill": 0.4759, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Matt Grimes", "market_value": 5200000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4759 } ], "xg_override": 0.1145 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.28, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1327, "after": 1.2971 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7085, "after": 0.8113 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4242, "after": 0.4858 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1, "after": 0.1145 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0985, "after": 0.1128 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0935, "after": 0.1071 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6855, "expected_assists": 0.059, "assist_rate": 0.0749, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1145, "goal_rate": 0.1071, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4858, "total_shots": 1.2971, "rating": 6.709, "minutes": 72.58, "total_pass": 18.927, "accurate_pass": 14.3296, "duels_won": 3.2322, "total_long_balls": 2.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8543, "total_own_half_passes": 5.703, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6463, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6833, "crosses_total": 0.9841, "crosses_accurate": 0.3755, "touches": 29.9809, "possession_lost": 7.3352, "dispossessed": 0.539, "duels_lost": 3.476, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8135, "interceptions": 0.4892, "tackles_won": 0.7681, "tackles": 1.4111, "clearances": 1.485, "total_contest": 1.2145, "won_contest": 0.5667, "challenges_lost": 0.6745, "fouls": 0.8, "fouls_drawn": 0.9729, "blocks": 0.0289, "big_chances_created": 0.1368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 8.9104, "total_progression": 26.2955, "progressive_carries": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.8113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1451, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.519, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matt Grimes", "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.3995, xG scale 0.9947, xA scale 1.1255, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6855, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "assist_rate": 0.0749, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1139, "goal_rate": 0.1071, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4858, "total_shots": 1.2971, "rating": 6.709, "minutes": 72.58, "total_pass": 18.927, "accurate_pass": 14.3296, "duels_won": 3.2322, "total_long_balls": 2.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8543, "total_own_half_passes": 5.703, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6463, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6833, "crosses_total": 0.9841, "crosses_accurate": 0.3755, "touches": 29.9809, "possession_lost": 7.3352, "dispossessed": 0.539, "duels_lost": 3.476, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8135, "interceptions": 0.4892, "tackles_won": 0.7681, "tackles": 1.4111, "clearances": 1.485, "total_contest": 1.2145, "won_contest": 0.5667, "challenges_lost": 0.6745, "fouls": 0.8, "fouls_drawn": 0.9729, "blocks": 0.0289, "big_chances_created": 0.1368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1122, "ball_carries": 8.9104, "total_progression": 26.2955, "progressive_carries": 1.0042, "shots_off_target": 0.8113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1451, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.519, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matt Grimes", "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.955, "creation_factor": 1.1459 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.392, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3995, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8039, "team_expected_assists": 0.9048, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9947, "xa_scale": 1.1255, "opponent_lambda": 1.389, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.059, "after": 0.0664 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6855, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "assist_rate": 0.0749, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1139, "goal_rate": 0.1071, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4858, "total_shots": 1.2971, "rating": 6.709, "minutes": 72.58, "total_pass": 18.927, "accurate_pass": 14.3296, "duels_won": 3.2322, "total_long_balls": 2.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8543, "total_own_half_passes": 5.703, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6463, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6833, "crosses_total": 0.9841, "crosses_accurate": 0.3755, "touches": 29.9809, "possession_lost": 7.3352, "dispossessed": 0.539, "duels_lost": 3.476, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8135, "interceptions": 0.4892, "tackles_won": 0.7681, "tackles": 1.4111, "clearances": 1.485, "total_contest": 1.2145, "won_contest": 0.5667, "challenges_lost": 0.6745, "fouls": 0.8, "fouls_drawn": 0.9729, "blocks": 0.0289, 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official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6855, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "assist_rate": 0.0749, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1139, "goal_rate": 0.1071, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4858, "total_shots": 1.2971, "rating": 6.709, "minutes": 72.58, "total_pass": 18.927, "accurate_pass": 14.3296, "duels_won": 3.2322, "total_long_balls": 2.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8543, "total_own_half_passes": 5.703, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6463, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6833, "crosses_total": 0.9841, "crosses_accurate": 0.3755, "touches": 29.9809, "possession_lost": 7.3352, "dispossessed": 0.539, "duels_lost": 3.476, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8135, "interceptions": 0.4892, "tackles_won": 0.7681, "tackles": 1.4111, 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}, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.049209 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.040435 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.030565 } ], "others_margin": -0.029084 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.790765762329102, "model_output": 6.7908, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0571 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.01 } ], "others": -0.029, "total": 6.7908, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05714 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023619 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011921 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.00997 } ], "others_margin": -0.029005 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 15, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1483, "goals": 0.1787, "goal_rate": 0.1787, "shots_on_target": 0.5839, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.0704, "key_pass": 0.7751, "rating": 6.7908, "minutes": 71.38, "total_pass": 14.8435, "accurate_pass": 12.0595, "duels_won": 4.6419, "total_long_balls": 0.3055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2186, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8961, "crosses_total": 0.9321, "crosses_accurate": 0.0783, "touches": 32.3516, "possession_lost": 9.5727, "dispossessed": 1.0533, "duels_lost": 6.4746, "aerial_lost": 1.2944, "total_contest": 3.9004, "won_contest": 1.81, "ball_recovery": 1.6564, "challenges_lost": 0.6947, "fouls": 1.4681, "fouls_drawn": 1.1039, "assists": 0.1274, "assist_rate": 0.1274, "interceptions": 1.1776, "tackles_won": 0.8757, "tackles": 1.4199, "clearances": 0.5685, "blocks": 0.0921, "big_chances_created": 0.1329, "big_chances_missed": 0.3327, "xgot": 0.0876, "offsides": 0.2184, "ball_carries": 8.1369, "total_progression": 53.4769, "progressive_carries": 2.2942, "shots_off_target": 0.9337 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 15, "history_shrink": 0.25, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0152)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1483, "goals": 0.1846, "goal_rate": 0.1846, "shots_on_target": 0.5839, "total_shots": 1.5124, "expected_assists": 0.0704, "key_pass": 0.7751, "rating": 6.7908, "minutes": 71.38, "total_pass": 14.8435, "accurate_pass": 12.0595, "duels_won": 4.6419, "total_long_balls": 0.3055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2186, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8961, "crosses_total": 0.9523, 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8284, "goals_prevented": -0.0732, "rating": 6.7468, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.664, "accurate_pass": 21.7733, "total_long_balls": 19.4587, "accurate_long_balls": 5.6443, "touches": 45.2051, "clearances": 1.0117, "ball_recovery": 7.6992, "high_claims": 0.9962, "punches": 1.0005, "aerial_won": 0.4064, "sweeper_actions": 0.4969, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4969, "saves_inside_box": 1.6402, "possession_lost": 14.322, "duels_won": 0.9009, "duels_lost": 0.1329, "total_contest": 0.058, "won_contest": 0.058, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3435, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4903, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3636, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1997, "shots_faced": 11.4, "expected_saves": 2.79, "high_pressure_saves": 0.96, "opponent_faced": "Sidiki Cherif, Brandon Thomas-Asante", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.3995, xG scale 0.9947, xA scale 1.1255, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8284, "goals_prevented": -0.0732, "rating": 6.7468, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.664, "accurate_pass": 21.7733, "total_long_balls": 19.4587, "accurate_long_balls": 5.6443, "touches": 45.2051, "clearances": 1.0117, "ball_recovery": 7.6992, "high_claims": 0.9962, "punches": 1.0005, "aerial_won": 0.4064, "sweeper_actions": 0.4969, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4969, "saves_inside_box": 1.6402, "possession_lost": 14.322, "duels_won": 0.9009, "duels_lost": 0.1329, "total_contest": 0.058, "won_contest": 0.058, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3435, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4903, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3636, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1997, "shots_faced": 13.2, "expected_saves": 3.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.11, "opponent_faced": "Sidiki Cherif, Brandon Thomas-Asante", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.392, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3995, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8039, "team_expected_assists": 0.9048, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9947, "xa_scale": 1.1255, "opponent_lambda": 1.389, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.4, "after": 13.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.79, "after": 3.23 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.96, "after": 1.11 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8284, "goals_prevented": -0.0732, "rating": 6.7468, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.664, "accurate_pass": 21.7733, "total_long_balls": 19.4587, "accurate_long_balls": 5.6443, "touches": 45.2051, "clearances": 1.0117, "ball_recovery": 7.6992, "high_claims": 0.9962, "punches": 1.0005, "aerial_won": 0.4064, "sweeper_actions": 0.4969, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4969, "saves_inside_box": 1.6402, "possession_lost": 14.322, "duels_won": 0.9009, "duels_lost": 0.1329, "total_contest": 0.058, "won_contest": 0.058, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3435, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4903, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3636, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1997, "shots_faced": 13.2, "expected_saves": 3.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.11, "opponent_faced": "Sidiki Cherif, Brandon Thomas-Asante", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"ball_recovery": 7.6992, "high_claims": 0.9962, "punches": 1.0005, "aerial_won": 0.4064, "sweeper_actions": 0.4969, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4969, "saves_inside_box": 1.6402, "possession_lost": 14.322, "duels_won": 0.9009, "duels_lost": 0.1329, "total_contest": 0.058, "won_contest": 0.058, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3435, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4903, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3636, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1997, "shots_faced": 13.2, "expected_saves": 3.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.11, "opponent_faced": "Sidiki Cherif, Brandon Thomas-Asante", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.5422, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.6476, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6476, "runner_up": "Nilson Angulo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1838 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8284, "goals_prevented": -0.0732, "rating": 6.7468, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.664, "accurate_pass": 21.7733, "total_long_balls": 19.4587, "accurate_long_balls": 5.6443, "touches": 45.2051, "clearances": 1.0117, "ball_recovery": 7.6992, "high_claims": 0.9962, "punches": 1.0005, "aerial_won": 0.4064, "sweeper_actions": 0.4969, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4969, "saves_inside_box": 1.6402, "possession_lost": 14.322, "duels_won": 0.9009, 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"already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1462, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1325, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Brian Brobbey": { "player_id": 910048, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 180, "market_value": 53000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5181, "goal_rate": 0.6672, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_shots": 4, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 6.5908, "dispossessed": 0.773, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.6201, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1775, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ethan Pinnock, Stephen Mfuni", "opponent_faced": "Ethan Pinnock, Stephen Mfuni", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4043, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.049, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363900, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": 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{ "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0296 } ], "others": -0.0811, "total": 0.6385, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.244812 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.065391 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.052486 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.050254 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.040347 } ], "others_margin": -0.119453 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.966928958892822, "model_output": 6.9669, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.118 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0666 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 6.9669, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.117959 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.066604 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.023161 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.014861 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011895 } ], "others_margin": -0.017265 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0118, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4425, "goals": 0.5707, "goal_rate": 0.5707, "shots_on_target": 1.3294, "total_shots": 2.6429, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "key_pass": 0.6461, "rating": 6.9669, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 12.4914, "accurate_pass": 9.6737, "duels_won": 4.6086, "total_long_balls": 0.2503, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2016, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1913, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7976, "crosses_total": 0.1606, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.9594, "possession_lost": 6.5908, "dispossessed": 0.773, "duels_lost": 4.7059, "aerial_lost": 1.7474, "total_contest": 0.8837, "won_contest": 0.2907, "ball_recovery": 1.627, "challenges_lost": 0.1247, "fouls": 1.5675, "fouls_drawn": 1.9205, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0303, 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2.9136, "aerial_lost": 2.4492, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9289, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6052, "fouls_drawn": 0.2696, "blocks": 0.4104, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0569, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9189, "total_progression": 45.0582, "progressive_carries": 1.0811, "key_pass": 0.1408, "shots_off_target": 0.3975 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:29:25.210665+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 626, "rows": 22004 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 4.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 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"margin_base": -0.141777, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.760188 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.042163 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.03336 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.019593 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.018401 } ], "others_margin": 0.029495 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5694899559020996, "model_output": 0.5695, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2493 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0731 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0414 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0245 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3878, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7878 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0391, "total": 0.5695, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327722, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.838476 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.042946 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.040929 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.036257 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.023982 } ], "others_margin": -0.066552 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3149120807647705, "model_output": 0.3149, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1966 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0678 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8471, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4885 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0376, "total": 0.3149, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.165887, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.859619 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.04949 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.04149 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041469 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.032361 } ], "others_margin": -0.112848 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.5859370231628418, "model_output": 1.5859, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2483 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2811 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0731 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0682 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0681 } ], "others": -0.079, "total": 1.5859, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.069643 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.214616 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.049025 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.043639 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.041739 } ], "others_margin": -0.048638 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.2355114221572876, "model_output": 1.2355, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7954 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.4097 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0905 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0905 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0515 } ], "others": 0.0144, "total": 1.2355, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.864555 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.535164 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.087609 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.080514 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.043062 } ], "others_margin": 0.011712 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3975328207015991, "model_output": 0.3975, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2493 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1378 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0152 } ], "others": 0.0132, "total": 0.3975, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.249304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.137845 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.017979 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017482 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.015201 } ], "others_margin": 0.013214 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.83767557144165, "model_output": 6.8377, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 6.8377, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024786 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.023072 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021978 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.018558 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015554 } ], "others_margin": 0.011571 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0073, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4716, "tackles": 0.5736, "tackles_won": 0.3172, "clearances": 1.5975, "aerial_won": 1.2445, "total_shots": 0.4004, "rating": 6.8377, "minutes": 28.75, "total_pass": 15.5377, "accurate_pass": 12.8668, "duels_won": 4.2175, "total_long_balls": 0.7107, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1962, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8626, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0172, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0043, "crosses_total": 0.2716, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.4354, "possession_lost": 2.9425, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.4671, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9357, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6096, "fouls_drawn": 0.2716, "blocks": 0.4134, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0573, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9694, "total_progression": 45.3871, "progressive_carries": 1.089, "key_pass": 0.1418, "shots_off_target": 0.4004 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0073, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4681, "tackles": 0.5736, "tackles_won": 0.3155, "clearances": 1.5975, "aerial_won": 1.2445, "total_shots": 0.3977, "rating": 6.8377, "minutes": 28.75, "total_pass": 15.5377, "accurate_pass": 12.8668, "duels_won": 4.2175, "total_long_balls": 0.7107, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1962, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8626, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0172, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0043, "crosses_total": 0.2686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.4354, "possession_lost": 2.9425, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.4671, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9357, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6082, "fouls_drawn": 0.2721, "blocks": 0.4134, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0573, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9694, "total_progression": 45.3871, "progressive_carries": 1.089, "key_pass": 0.1418, "shots_off_target": 0.4004 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3194, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.8 to 14.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 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23.031, "progressive_carries": 0.5526, "key_pass": 0.072, "shots_off_target": 0.2032, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.59, "projection_minutes": 28.75, "minutes_scale": 0.5074, "appearance_probability": 0.238 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2375, "tackles": 0.2911, "tackles_won": 0.1601, "clearances": 0.8106, "aerial_won": 0.6315, "total_shots": 0.2032, "rating": 6.8377, "minutes": 14.59, "total_pass": 7.8844, "accurate_pass": 6.5291, "duels_won": 2.1401, "total_long_balls": 0.3606, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0996, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3236, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9898, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5608, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5394, "crosses_total": 0.1363, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.8919, "possession_lost": 1.4931, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4893, "aerial_lost": 2.4671, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4748, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3086, "fouls_drawn": 0.1381, "blocks": 0.2098, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5365, "total_progression": 23.031, "progressive_carries": 0.5526, "key_pass": 0.072, "shots_off_target": 0.2032, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2375, "tackles": 0.2911, "tackles_won": 0.1601, "clearances": 0.8106, "aerial_won": 0.6315, "total_shots": 0.2032, "rating": 6.8377, "minutes": 14.59, "total_pass": 7.8844, "accurate_pass": 6.5291, "duels_won": 2.1401, 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"name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.081 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0741 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0619 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 0.9646, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.923708 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.133708 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.070518 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.069228 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.061708 } ], "others_margin": -0.007583 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.297103613615036, "model_output": 0.2971, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8012 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1741 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": -0.0533, "total": 0.2971, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.87453 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.361935 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.104597 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.057373 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.031892 } ], "others_margin": -0.16511 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.14761286973953247, "model_output": 0.1476, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2485 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0485, "total": 0.1476, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.248532 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010482 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01022 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008032 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.006784 } ], "others_margin": -0.048417 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.74552059173584, "model_output": 6.7455, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 6.7455, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011934 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009594 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.008394 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.00514 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.005007 } ], "others_margin": -0.011632 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2482, "tackles": 0.4131, "tackles_won": 0.2422, "clearances": 0.5758, "aerial_won": 0.1774, "total_shots": 0.0881, "rating": 6.7455, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.3205, "accurate_pass": 7.0567, "duels_won": 0.8785, "total_long_balls": 0.6317, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8259, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6297, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.427, "crosses_total": 0.0914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0914, "touches": 11.3994, "possession_lost": 1.5935, "dispossessed": 0.0946, "duels_lost": 0.5556, "aerial_lost": 0.3411, "total_contest": 0.0556, "won_contest": 0.0556, "ball_recovery": 1.0362, "challenges_lost": 0.2617, "fouls": 0.142, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.0249, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0264, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0293, "big_chances_created": 0.1075, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 2.3421, "total_progression": 1.3558, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2649, "shots_off_target": 0.0588, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.337, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2482, "tackles": 0.4131, "tackles_won": 0.2422, "clearances": 0.5758, "aerial_won": 0.1774, "total_shots": 0.0881, "rating": 6.7455, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.3205, "accurate_pass": 7.0567, "duels_won": 0.8785, "total_long_balls": 0.6317, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8259, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6297, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.427, "crosses_total": 0.0914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0914, "touches": 11.3994, "possession_lost": 1.5935, 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"projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0293, "big_chances_created": 0.1075, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 2.3421, "total_progression": 1.3558, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2649, "shots_off_target": 0.0588, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.337, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2137, "fifa_rank": 1168.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Habib Diarra": { "player_id": 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-0.0316, "total": 6.6631, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056815 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049525 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03233 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014578 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008089 } ], "others_margin": -0.031562 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0134, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4095, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0677, "assist_rate": 0.0677, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goals": 0.0554, "goal_rate": 0.0554, "shots_on_target": 0.2286, "total_shots": 0.5882, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 20.34, "total_pass": 6.2091, "accurate_pass": 4.9613, "duels_won": 0.6889, "total_long_balls": 0.3674, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1961, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4046, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2364, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7249, "crosses_total": 0.7916, "crosses_accurate": 0.1755, "touches": 9.6703, "possession_lost": 2.6574, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.7314, "aerial_won": 0.2462, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0539, "tackles_won": 0.0539, "tackles": 0.1713, "clearances": 0.1269, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.373, "fouls_drawn": 0.2714, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2308, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8315, "total_progression": 13.7443, "progressive_carries": 0.5244, "shots_off_target": 0.3596 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0134, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4095, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0692, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goals": 0.0553, "goal_rate": 0.0553, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5885, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 20.34, "total_pass": 6.2091, "accurate_pass": 4.9613, "duels_won": 0.6889, "total_long_balls": 0.3674, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1961, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4046, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2364, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7249, "crosses_total": 0.7898, "crosses_accurate": 0.1755, "touches": 9.6703, "possession_lost": 2.6574, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.7314, "aerial_won": 0.2462, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0538, "tackles_won": 0.0538, "tackles": 0.1713, "clearances": 0.1269, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3739, "fouls_drawn": 0.2708, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2308, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8315, "total_progression": 13.7443, "progressive_carries": 0.5244, "shots_off_target": 0.3596 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.226, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.3 to 18.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "assists": 0.0637, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goals": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "shots_on_target": 0.2099, "total_shots": 0.5416, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.72, "projection_minutes": 20.34, "minutes_scale": 0.9204, "appearance_probability": 0.718 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "assists": 0.0637, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goals": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "shots_on_target": 0.2099, "total_shots": 0.5416, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2099, "total_shots": 0.5416, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.3995, xG scale 0.9947, xA scale 1.1255, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2099, "total_shots": 0.5416, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9665, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.392, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3995, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8039, "team_expected_assists": 0.9048, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9947, "xa_scale": 1.1255, "opponent_lambda": 1.389, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.718 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0544, "after": 0.0389 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0324, "after": 0.0262 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2099, "total_shots": 0.5416, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9665, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3071, "fifa_rank": 1436.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2099, "total_shots": 0.5416, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0379, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9665, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0379, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "scorer_weight": 0.0376, "squad_weight_total": 1.5422, "weight_share": 0.0244, "finishing_factor": 0.9665, "appearance_weight": 0.718, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.6476, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6476, "runner_up": "Nilson Angulo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1838 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2099, "total_shots": 0.5416, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0379, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0257, "finishing_factor": 0.9665, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0257, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "provider_weight": 0.0328, "squad_weight_total": 0.8379, "weight_share": 0.0391, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.718, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Granit Xhaka", "weight": 0.1462, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1462, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1325, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Dayann Methalie": { "player_id": 1894003, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 186, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0277, "assist_rate": 0.0576, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0278, "goal_rate": 0.0321, "goals": 0, 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{ "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.002 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0002, "total": 0.0279, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.377273 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.264574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.079924 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.067225 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04814 } ], "others_margin": -0.003431 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.31459569931030273, "model_output": 0.3146, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2622 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0265, "total": 0.3146, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.474603 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.105674 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.100231 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07078 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.040906 } ], "others_margin": -0.080634 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.677021026611328, "model_output": 6.677, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0724 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0485, "total": 6.677, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072441 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.0308 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.02213 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.020346 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.012838 } ], "others_margin": -0.048558 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0342, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0667, "goals": 0.0691, "goal_rate": 0.0691, "shots_on_target": 0.3486, "total_shots": 0.7635, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.3254, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 27.89, "total_pass": 12.345, "accurate_pass": 9.8947, "duels_won": 1.7246, "total_long_balls": 0.559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2345, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3495, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1, "crosses_total": 1.5032, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1004, "possession_lost": 6.5969, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.5032, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7997, "won_contest": 0.7997, "ball_recovery": 1.5253, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4337, "fouls_drawn": 0.3245, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3245, "tackles_won": 0.6005, "tackles": 0.6005, "clearances": 0.3245, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5517, "xgot": 0.0517, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4028, "total_progression": 56.5584, "progressive_carries": 1.676, "shots_off_target": 0.4149 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0342, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.9 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0489, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3923, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 27.89, "minutes_scale": 0.9456, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0489, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3923, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0489, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3923, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.3995, xG scale 0.9947, xA scale 1.1255, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0296, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3923, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0195, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.392, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3995, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8039, "team_expected_assists": 0.9048, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9947, "xa_scale": 1.1255, "opponent_lambda": 1.389, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0631, "after": 0.0382 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0273, "after": 0.0187 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0296, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3923, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0195, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2993, "fifa_rank": 1477.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, 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"eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.6476, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6476, "runner_up": "Nilson Angulo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1838 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, 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-0.0031 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.002 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0023, "total": 0.033, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.344812 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.086676 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077181 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.051591 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04557 } ], "others_margin": -0.066919 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.39234399795532227, "model_output": 0.3923, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2522 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0058, "total": 0.3923, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.451816 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.064658 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.037086 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.036492 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.034453 } ], "others_margin": -0.014566 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.625057220458984, "model_output": 6.6251, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0625 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0425, "total": 6.6251, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062522 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034815 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.014118 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013974 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008505 } ], "others_margin": -0.042462 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goals": 0.0659, "goal_rate": 0.0659, "shots_on_target": 0.2248, "total_shots": 0.5855, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "key_pass": 0.3949, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 7.6645, "accurate_pass": 6.3031, "duels_won": 0.2682, "total_long_balls": 0.3535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2501, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9272, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7232, "crosses_total": 1.5119, "crosses_accurate": 0.1174, "touches": 11.5102, "possession_lost": 4.0007, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 0.9549, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.2357, "won_contest": 0.0629, "ball_recovery": 1.0687, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.2922, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.054, "tackles_won": 0.1418, "tackles": 0.1418, "clearances": 0.3399, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0203, "xgot": 0.0253, "offsides": 0.1567, "ball_carries": 4.9858, "total_progression": 21.5202, "progressive_carries": 0.6616, "shots_off_target": 0.3607 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0025)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goals": 0.0657, "goal_rate": 0.0657, "shots_on_target": 0.2242, "total_shots": 0.584, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "key_pass": 0.3949, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 7.6645, "accurate_pass": 6.3031, "duels_won": 0.2682, "total_long_balls": 0.3535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2501, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9272, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7232, "crosses_total": 1.5129, "crosses_accurate": 0.1174, "touches": 11.5102, "possession_lost": 4.0007, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 0.9549, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.2357, "won_contest": 0.0629, "ball_recovery": 1.0687, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.293, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0539, "tackles_won": 0.1414, "tackles": 0.1418, "clearances": 0.3399, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0203, "xgot": 0.0253, "offsides": 0.1579, "ball_carries": 4.9858, "total_progression": 21.5202, "progressive_carries": 0.6616, "shots_off_target": 0.3607 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0025, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2531, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.8 to 29.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0721, "goals": 0.0847, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "shots_on_target": 0.2892, "total_shots": 0.7544, "expected_assists": 0.0428, "key_pass": 0.5093, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.8851, "accurate_pass": 8.1293, "duels_won": 0.3459, "total_long_balls": 0.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3226, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8019, "crosses_total": 1.9512, "crosses_accurate": 0.1514, "touches": 14.845, "possession_lost": 5.1598, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 1.2316, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.0811, "ball_recovery": 1.3783, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.3779, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0695, "tackles_won": 0.1824, "tackles": 0.1829, "clearances": 0.4384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0262, "xgot": 0.0326, "offsides": 0.1579, "ball_carries": 6.4303, "total_progression": 27.7552, "progressive_carries": 0.8533, "shots_off_target": 0.4652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 29.38, "projection_minutes": 22.78, "minutes_scale": 1.2897, "appearance_probability": 0.737 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0721, "goals": 0.0847, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "shots_on_target": 0.2892, "total_shots": 0.7544, "expected_assists": 0.0428, "key_pass": 0.5093, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.8851, "accurate_pass": 8.1293, "duels_won": 0.3459, "total_long_balls": 0.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3226, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8019, "crosses_total": 1.9512, "crosses_accurate": 0.1514, "touches": 14.845, "possession_lost": 5.1598, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 1.2316, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.0811, "ball_recovery": 1.3783, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.3779, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0695, "tackles_won": 0.1824, "tackles": 0.1829, "clearances": 0.4384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0262, "xgot": 0.0326, "offsides": 0.1579, "ball_carries": 6.4303, "total_progression": 27.7552, "progressive_carries": 0.8533, "shots_off_target": 0.4652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0721, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2892, "total_shots": 0.7544, "expected_assists": 0.0428, "key_pass": 0.5093, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.8851, "accurate_pass": 8.1293, "duels_won": 0.3459, "total_long_balls": 0.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3226, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8019, "crosses_total": 1.9512, "crosses_accurate": 0.1514, "touches": 14.845, "possession_lost": 5.1598, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 1.2316, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.0811, "ball_recovery": 1.3783, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.3779, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0695, "tackles_won": 0.1824, "tackles": 0.1829, "clearances": 0.4384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0262, "xgot": 0.0326, "offsides": 0.1579, "ball_carries": 6.4303, "total_progression": 27.7552, "progressive_carries": 0.8533, "shots_off_target": 0.4652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.3995, xG scale 0.9947, xA scale 1.1255, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2892, "total_shots": 0.7544, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "key_pass": 0.5093, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.8851, "accurate_pass": 8.1293, "duels_won": 0.3459, "total_long_balls": 0.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3226, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8019, "crosses_total": 1.9512, "crosses_accurate": 0.1514, "touches": 14.845, "possession_lost": 5.1598, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 1.2316, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.0811, "ball_recovery": 1.3783, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.3779, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0695, "tackles_won": 0.1824, "tackles": 0.1829, "clearances": 0.4384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0262, "xgot": 0.0239, "offsides": 0.1579, "ball_carries": 6.4303, "total_progression": 27.7552, "progressive_carries": 0.8533, "shots_off_target": 0.4652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1032, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.392, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3995, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8039, "team_expected_assists": 0.9048, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9947, "xa_scale": 1.1255, "opponent_lambda": 1.389, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.737 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0721, "after": 0.0529 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0428, "after": 0.0355 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2892, "total_shots": 0.7544, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "key_pass": 0.5093, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.8851, "accurate_pass": 8.1293, "duels_won": 0.3459, "total_long_balls": 0.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3226, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8019, "crosses_total": 1.9512, "crosses_accurate": 0.1514, "touches": 14.845, "possession_lost": 5.1598, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 1.2316, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.0811, "ball_recovery": 1.3783, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.3779, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0695, "tackles_won": 0.1824, "tackles": 0.1829, "clearances": 0.4384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0262, "xgot": 0.0239, "offsides": 0.1579, "ball_carries": 6.4303, "total_progression": 27.7552, "progressive_carries": 0.8533, "shots_off_target": 0.4652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1032, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3150, "fifa_rank": 1443.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2892, "total_shots": 0.7544, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "key_pass": 0.5093, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.8851, "accurate_pass": 8.1293, "duels_won": 0.3459, "total_long_balls": 0.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3226, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8019, "crosses_total": 1.9512, "crosses_accurate": 0.1514, "touches": 14.845, "possession_lost": 5.1598, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 1.2316, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.0811, "ball_recovery": 1.3783, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.3779, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0695, "tackles_won": 0.1824, "tackles": 0.1829, "clearances": 0.4384, "blocks": 0.0, 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"eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.6476, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6476, "runner_up": "Nilson Angulo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1838 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2892, "total_shots": 0.7544, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "key_pass": 0.5093, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.8851, "accurate_pass": 8.1293, "duels_won": 0.3459, "total_long_balls": 0.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3226, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8019, "crosses_total": 1.9512, "crosses_accurate": 0.1514, "touches": 14.845, "possession_lost": 5.1598, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 1.2316, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 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"contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.002 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0023, "total": 0.033, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.344812 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.086676 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077181 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.051591 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04557 } ], "others_margin": -0.066919 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.39234399795532227, "model_output": 0.3923, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2522 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0058, "total": 0.3923, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.451816 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.064658 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.037086 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.036492 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.034453 } ], "others_margin": -0.014566 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.625057220458984, "model_output": 6.6251, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0625 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0425, "total": 6.6251, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062522 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034815 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.014118 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013974 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008505 } ], "others_margin": -0.042462 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goals": 0.0659, "goal_rate": 0.0659, "shots_on_target": 0.2248, "total_shots": 0.5855, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "key_pass": 0.3949, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 7.6645, "accurate_pass": 6.3031, "duels_won": 0.2682, "total_long_balls": 0.3535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2501, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9272, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7232, "crosses_total": 1.5119, "crosses_accurate": 0.1174, "touches": 11.5102, "possession_lost": 4.0007, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 0.9549, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.2357, "won_contest": 0.0629, "ball_recovery": 1.0687, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.2922, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.054, "tackles_won": 0.1418, "tackles": 0.1418, "clearances": 0.3399, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0203, "xgot": 0.0253, "offsides": 0.1567, "ball_carries": 4.9858, "total_progression": 21.5202, "progressive_carries": 0.6616, "shots_off_target": 0.3607 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0025)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goals": 0.0657, "goal_rate": 0.0657, "shots_on_target": 0.2242, "total_shots": 0.584, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "key_pass": 0.3949, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 7.6645, "accurate_pass": 6.3031, "duels_won": 0.2682, "total_long_balls": 0.3535, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2501, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9272, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7232, "crosses_total": 1.5129, "crosses_accurate": 0.1174, "touches": 11.5102, "possession_lost": 4.0007, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 0.9549, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.2357, "won_contest": 0.0629, "ball_recovery": 1.0687, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.293, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0539, "tackles_won": 0.1414, "tackles": 0.1418, "clearances": 0.3399, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0203, "xgot": 0.0253, "offsides": 0.1579, "ball_carries": 4.9858, "total_progression": 21.5202, "progressive_carries": 0.6616, "shots_off_target": 0.3607 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0025, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2531, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.8 to 29.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0721, "goals": 0.0847, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "shots_on_target": 0.2892, "total_shots": 0.7544, "expected_assists": 0.0428, "key_pass": 0.5093, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.8851, "accurate_pass": 8.1293, "duels_won": 0.3459, "total_long_balls": 0.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3226, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8019, "crosses_total": 1.9512, "crosses_accurate": 0.1514, "touches": 14.845, "possession_lost": 5.1598, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 1.2316, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.0811, "ball_recovery": 1.3783, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.3779, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0695, "tackles_won": 0.1824, "tackles": 0.1829, "clearances": 0.4384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0262, "xgot": 0.0326, "offsides": 0.1579, "ball_carries": 6.4303, "total_progression": 27.7552, "progressive_carries": 0.8533, "shots_off_target": 0.4652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 29.38, "projection_minutes": 22.78, "minutes_scale": 1.2897, "appearance_probability": 0.737 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0721, "goals": 0.0847, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "shots_on_target": 0.2892, "total_shots": 0.7544, "expected_assists": 0.0428, "key_pass": 0.5093, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.8851, "accurate_pass": 8.1293, "duels_won": 0.3459, "total_long_balls": 0.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3226, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8019, "crosses_total": 1.9512, "crosses_accurate": 0.1514, "touches": 14.845, "possession_lost": 5.1598, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 1.2316, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.0811, "ball_recovery": 1.3783, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.3779, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0695, "tackles_won": 0.1824, "tackles": 0.1829, "clearances": 0.4384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0262, "xgot": 0.0326, "offsides": 0.1579, "ball_carries": 6.4303, "total_progression": 27.7552, "progressive_carries": 0.8533, "shots_off_target": 0.4652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0721, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2892, "total_shots": 0.7544, "expected_assists": 0.0428, "key_pass": 0.5093, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.8851, "accurate_pass": 8.1293, "duels_won": 0.3459, "total_long_balls": 0.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3226, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8019, "crosses_total": 1.9512, "crosses_accurate": 0.1514, "touches": 14.845, "possession_lost": 5.1598, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 1.2316, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.0811, "ball_recovery": 1.3783, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.3779, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0695, "tackles_won": 0.1824, "tackles": 0.1829, "clearances": 0.4384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0262, "xgot": 0.0326, "offsides": 0.1579, "ball_carries": 6.4303, "total_progression": 27.7552, "progressive_carries": 0.8533, "shots_off_target": 0.4652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.3995, xG scale 0.9947, xA scale 1.1255, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2892, "total_shots": 0.7544, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "key_pass": 0.5093, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.8851, "accurate_pass": 8.1293, "duels_won": 0.3459, "total_long_balls": 0.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3226, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8019, "crosses_total": 1.9512, "crosses_accurate": 0.1514, "touches": 14.845, "possession_lost": 5.1598, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 1.2316, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.0811, "ball_recovery": 1.3783, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.3779, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0695, "tackles_won": 0.1824, "tackles": 0.1829, "clearances": 0.4384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0262, "xgot": 0.0239, "offsides": 0.1579, "ball_carries": 6.4303, "total_progression": 27.7552, "progressive_carries": 0.8533, "shots_off_target": 0.4652, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1032, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.392, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3995, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8039, "team_expected_assists": 0.9048, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9947, "xa_scale": 1.1255, "opponent_lambda": 1.389, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.737 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0721, "after": 0.0529 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0428, "after": 0.0355 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0847, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2892, "total_shots": 0.7544, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "key_pass": 0.5093, "rating": 6.6251, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.8851, "accurate_pass": 8.1293, "duels_won": 0.3459, "total_long_balls": 0.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3226, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8019, "crosses_total": 1.9512, "crosses_accurate": 0.1514, "touches": 14.845, "possession_lost": 5.1598, "dispossessed": 0.143, "duels_lost": 1.2316, "aerial_lost": 0.0966, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.0811, "ball_recovery": 1.3783, "challenges_lost": 0.2501, "fouls": 0.3779, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0695, "tackles_won": 0.1824, "tackles": 0.1829, "clearances": 0.4384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0262, "xgot": 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{ "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0029, "total": 0.0546, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.357331, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.513761 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.126989 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.108965 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.095071 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.060721 } ], "others_margin": -0.052407 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22562560439109802, "model_output": 0.2256, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4384 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0837 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0756 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0212 } ], "others": 0.047, "total": 0.5804, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.43841 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.08366 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.075639 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022987 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.02118 } ], "others_margin": 0.046897 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.663111686706543, "model_output": 6.6631, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0568 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0495 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0316, "total": 6.6631, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056815 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049525 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03233 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014578 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008089 } ], "others_margin": -0.031562 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0134, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4095, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0677, "assist_rate": 0.0677, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goals": 0.0554, "goal_rate": 0.0554, "shots_on_target": 0.2286, "total_shots": 0.5882, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 20.34, "total_pass": 6.2091, "accurate_pass": 4.9613, "duels_won": 0.6889, "total_long_balls": 0.3674, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1961, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4046, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2364, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7249, "crosses_total": 0.7916, "crosses_accurate": 0.1755, "touches": 9.6703, "possession_lost": 2.6574, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.7314, "aerial_won": 0.2462, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0539, "tackles_won": 0.0539, "tackles": 0.1713, "clearances": 0.1269, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.373, "fouls_drawn": 0.2714, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2308, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8315, "total_progression": 13.7443, "progressive_carries": 0.5244, "shots_off_target": 0.3596 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0134, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4095, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0692, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goals": 0.0553, "goal_rate": 0.0553, "shots_on_target": 0.2281, "total_shots": 0.5885, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 20.34, "total_pass": 6.2091, "accurate_pass": 4.9613, "duels_won": 0.6889, "total_long_balls": 0.3674, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1961, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4046, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2364, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7249, "crosses_total": 0.7898, "crosses_accurate": 0.1755, "touches": 9.6703, "possession_lost": 2.6574, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.7314, "aerial_won": 0.2462, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0538, "tackles_won": 0.0538, "tackles": 0.1713, "clearances": 0.1269, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3739, "fouls_drawn": 0.2708, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2308, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8315, "total_progression": 13.7443, "progressive_carries": 0.5244, "shots_off_target": 0.3596 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.226, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.3 to 18.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "assists": 0.0637, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goals": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "shots_on_target": 0.2099, "total_shots": 0.5416, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.72, "projection_minutes": 20.34, "minutes_scale": 0.9204, "appearance_probability": 0.718 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "assists": 0.0637, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goals": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "shots_on_target": 0.2099, "total_shots": 0.5416, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2099, "total_shots": 0.5416, "rating": 6.6631, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.3995, xG scale 0.9947, xA scale 1.1255, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 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"touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0265, "total": 0.3146, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.474603 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.105674 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.100231 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07078 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.040906 } ], "others_margin": -0.080634 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.677021026611328, "model_output": 6.677, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0724 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0485, "total": 6.677, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072441 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.0308 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.02213 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.020346 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.012838 } ], "others_margin": -0.048558 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0342, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0667, "goals": 0.0691, "goal_rate": 0.0691, "shots_on_target": 0.3486, "total_shots": 0.7635, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.3254, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 27.89, "total_pass": 12.345, "accurate_pass": 9.8947, "duels_won": 1.7246, "total_long_balls": 0.559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2345, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3495, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1, "crosses_total": 1.5032, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1004, "possession_lost": 6.5969, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.5032, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7997, "won_contest": 0.7997, "ball_recovery": 1.5253, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4337, "fouls_drawn": 0.3245, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3245, "tackles_won": 0.6005, "tackles": 0.6005, "clearances": 0.3245, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5517, "xgot": 0.0517, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4028, "total_progression": 56.5584, "progressive_carries": 1.676, "shots_off_target": 0.4149 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0342, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.9 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0489, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3923, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 27.89, "minutes_scale": 0.9456, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0489, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3923, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0489, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3923, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.39 (squad xG sum 1.3995, xG scale 0.9947, xA scale 1.1255, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0296, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3923, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0195, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.392, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3995, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8039, "team_expected_assists": 0.9048, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9947, "xa_scale": 1.1255, "opponent_lambda": 1.389, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0631, "after": 0.0382 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0273, "after": 0.0187 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0296, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3923, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0195, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2993, "fifa_rank": 1477.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0296, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3923, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.037, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0195, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "scorer_weight": 0.0389, "squad_weight_total": 1.5422, "weight_share": 0.0253, "finishing_factor": 1.0195, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.6476, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6476, "runner_up": "Nilson Angulo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1838 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3296, "total_shots": 0.7219, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3077, "rating": 6.677, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 11.6729, "accurate_pass": 9.356, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 0.5286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2217, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7679, "crosses_total": 1.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.9516, "possession_lost": 6.2377, "dispossessed": 1.0694, "duels_lost": 1.4214, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7562, "won_contest": 0.7562, "ball_recovery": 1.4423, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles_won": 0.5678, "tackles": 0.5678, "clearances": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5217, "xgot": 0.0296, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9998, "total_progression": 53.4792, "progressive_carries": 1.5848, "shots_off_target": 0.3923, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.945, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.037, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0184, "finishing_factor": 1.0195, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0184, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.015, "squad_weight_total": 0.8379, "weight_share": 0.0179, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Granit Xhaka", "weight": 0.1462, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1462, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1325, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.39, "expected_assists": 0.9, "total_shots": 17, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 383, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jack Rudoni", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Nordi Mukiele" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.602, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "xg_contribution": 0.1672, "xg_multiplier": 0.9791, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nordi Mukiele", "role": "RB", "market_value": 17100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Rudoni (LW) is evenly matched against Nordi Mukiele in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.167 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sidiki Cherif", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Trai Hume", "Reinildo Mandava" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.541, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.26, "xg_contribution": 0.2302, "xg_multiplier": 1.0875, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Trai Hume", "role": "CB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 }, { "player": "Reinildo Mandava", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sidiki Cherif (ST) is slightly favored against Trai Hume and Reinildo Mandava in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.230 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Trai Hume", "Reinildo Mandava" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.541, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "xg_contribution": 0.1695, "xg_multiplier": 1.0103, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Trai Hume", "role": "CB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793 }, { "player": "Reinildo Mandava", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brandon Thomas-Asante (ST) is evenly matched against Trai Hume and Reinildo Mandava in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.170 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Trai Hume", "Reinildo Mandava" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.541, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.096, "xg_multiplier": 0.8578, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Trai Hume", "role": "CB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Reinildo Mandava", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Trai Hume and Reinildo Mandava in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Matt Grimes", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.284, "xg_contribution": 0.036, "xg_multiplier": 0.8004, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.716 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matt Grimes (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Noah Sadiki in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.80 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "xg_contribution": 0.0355, "xg_multiplier": 0.9686, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601 } ], "duel_analysis": "Caleb Yirenkyi (CDM) is evenly matched against Noah Sadiki in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Granit Xhaka", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.505, "defenders": [ "Jay DaSilva" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.541, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.499, "xg_contribution": 0.0487, "xg_multiplier": 1.0278, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jay DaSilva", "role": "RB", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.501 } ], "duel_analysis": "Granit Xhaka (LW) is evenly matched against Jay DaSilva in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Le Fée", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Matt Grimes", "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.562, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.27, "xg_contribution": 0.1606, "xg_multiplier": 1.0438, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matt Grimes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73 }, { "player": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Le Fée (CAM) is evenly matched against Matt Grimes and Caleb Yirenkyi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.161 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Brian Brobbey", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Stephen Mfuni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "xg_contribution": 0.521, "xg_multiplier": 1.1775, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679 }, { "player": "Stephen Mfuni", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brian Brobbey (ST) is slightly favored against Ethan Pinnock and Stephen Mfuni in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€53M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.18 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.521 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Nilson Angulo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Stephen Mfuni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.235, "xg_contribution": 0.1559, "xg_multiplier": 1.0511, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.765 }, { "player": "Stephen Mfuni", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.765 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nilson Angulo (ST) is evenly matched against Ethan Pinnock and Stephen Mfuni in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.156 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Noah Sadiki", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Matt Grimes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.556, "xg_contribution": 0.0819, "xg_multiplier": 1.1996, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matt Grimes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.444 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Sadiki (CDM) is slightly favored against Matt Grimes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€42M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.20 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.082 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Chris Rigg", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Matt Grimes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.519, "xg_contribution": 0.1145, "xg_multiplier": 1.1451, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matt Grimes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.481 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chris Rigg (CDM) is slightly favored against Matt Grimes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.115 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.588, "away_midfield_power": 0.692, "home_creative_power": 0.564, "away_creative_power": 0.657, "home_defensive_power": 0.478, "away_defensive_power": 0.62, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.46, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jack Rudoni", "Matt Grimes", "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Granit Xhaka", "Noah Sadiki", "Chris Rigg", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.4, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 2.6, "key_personal_duel": "Caleb Yirenkyi vs Noah Sadiki", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.988, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.02 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.389, "away_lambda": 1.392, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Jack Rudoni": { "opponents": [ "Nordi Mukiele", "Chris Rigg" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sidiki Cherif": { "opponents": [ "Trai Hume", "Reinildo Mandava" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Brandon Thomas-Asante": { "opponents": [ "Trai Hume", "Reinildo Mandava" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto": { "opponents": [ "Trai Hume", "Reinildo Mandava" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Matt Grimes": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée", "Chris Rigg", "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Caleb Yirenkyi": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jay DaSilva": { "opponents": [ "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ethan Pinnock": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey", "Nilson Angulo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Stephen Mfuni": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey", "Nilson Angulo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Carl Rushworth": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey", "Nilson Angulo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Milan van Ewijk": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Nordi Mukiele": { "opponents": [ "Jack Rudoni" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Trai Hume": { "opponents": [ "Sidiki Cherif", "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Reinildo Mandava": { "opponents": [ "Sidiki Cherif", "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Noah Sadiki": { "opponents": [ "Matt Grimes", "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Granit Xhaka": { "opponents": [ "Jay DaSilva", "Matt Grimes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Le Fée": { "opponents": [ "Matt Grimes", "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brian Brobbey": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Stephen Mfuni" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Nilson Angulo": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Stephen Mfuni" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Chris Rigg": { "opponents": [ "Matt Grimes", "Jack Rudoni" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Robin Roefs": { "opponents": [ "Sidiki Cherif", "Brandon Thomas-Asante" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Luke O'Nien": { "opponents": [ "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Caleb Yirenkyi vs Noah Sadiki will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.73, Away: 1.08. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8928, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.153, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0157, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9722, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9828, "home_midfield_factor": 0.988, "away_midfield_factor": 1.02, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.553, "away_avg_quality": 0.6247, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0717, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.4744, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.4356, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.6047, "elite_count_gap": -2, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1582, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.087, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0506, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7344, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9133 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.988, "result": 0.9023 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9023 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.1723 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9604, "result": 1.1259 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8928, "result": 1.0052 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9722, "result": 0.9773 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.153, "result": 1.1303 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1303, "result": 1.1303, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1582, "factor": 0.9494, "pre": 1.1303, "result": 1.073 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.073 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1267, "result": 1.1997 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.1997 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1997, "result": 1.2, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 1.2, "result": 1.2257, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.226 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.226 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.226, "result": 1.226, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.093, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.389 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0826, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1744 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.02, "result": 1.1979 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1979 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1979 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.971, "result": 1.1632 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 1.0786 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9828, "result": 1.06 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0157, "result": 1.0757 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0757, "result": 1.0757, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1582, "factor": 1.087, "pre": 1.0757, "result": 1.1693 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1693 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1781, "result": 1.3471 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.3471 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3471, "result": 1.347, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 1.347, "result": 1.3182, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.318 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.318 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.318, "result": 1.318, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.093, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.392 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1267, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1781, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.226, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.318, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1997, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3471, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.093, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.389, "final_away_lambda": 1.392 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9604, "attack_index": 0.816, "defense_concede_index": 1.105, "form_multiplier": 1.004, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.13, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.53, "team_ppg": 1.01, "opponent_ppg": 0.94 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.971, "attack_index": 0.816, "defense_concede_index": 1.141, "form_multiplier": 0.996, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.13, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.58, "team_ppg": 0.94, "opponent_ppg": 1.01 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Coventry vs Sunderland. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.200, Away 1.347). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.389, Away 1.392 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 7, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.389, "away_lambda": 1.392, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.2, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.347 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.093, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-31T13:31:34Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }