{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Liverpool", "away_team": "Arsenal", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261101", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0904, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0904, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0757, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Liverpool", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2495, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1172 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0904 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0886 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0757 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.074 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0584, "0-1": 0.074, "0-2": 0.0487, "0-3": 0.0211, "0-4": 0.0069, "0-5": 0.0018, "1-0": 0.0886, "1-1": 0.1172, "1-2": 0.0757, "1-3": 0.0328, "1-4": 0.0107, "1-5": 0.0028, "1-6": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0695, "2-1": 0.0904, "2-2": 0.0588, "2-3": 0.0255, "2-4": 0.0083, "2-5": 0.0022, "3-0": 0.036, "3-1": 0.0468, "3-2": 0.0305, "3-3": 0.0132, "3-4": 0.0043, "3-5": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.014, "4-1": 0.0182, "4-2": 0.0118, "4-3": 0.0051, "4-4": 0.0017, "5-0": 0.0043, "5-1": 0.0057, "5-2": 0.0037, "5-3": 0.0016, "5-4": 0.0005, "6-0": 0.0011, "6-1": 0.0015, "6-2": 0.001 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.432, "draw": 0.2495, "away_win": 0.3185 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5435, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4565, "btts_yes": 0.5747, "btts_no": 0.4253, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2723, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2114 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.92, "MCR": 6.98, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 7.01 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.94, "MCR": 7.15, "ATR": 6.85, "GK": 7.07 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Liverpool vs Arsenal. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Liverpool 3W-5D-2L vs Arsenal over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Cody Gakpo, Alexander Isak, Kai Havertz", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ryan Gravenberch vs Declan Rice will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.29, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.554, "away_lambda": 1.301, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 3, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 5, "home_multiplier": 1.0071, "away_multiplier": 0.9929 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1172, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.432, "draw": 0.2495, "away_win": 0.3185 }, "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.432, "fair_spread": 0.253, "fair_total": 2.855, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.554, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.301, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5435, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5747, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2723, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2114, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Alexander Isak (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.4446, "probability": 0.3589, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kai Havertz (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.3152, "probability": 0.2704, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Florian Wirtz (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.2019, "probability": 0.1828, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Declan Rice (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.1951, "probability": 0.1772, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.855, "expected_total_shots": 31, "expected_total_passes": 1058, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.2, "possession_home_pct": 49.9, "possession_away_pct": 50.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.432, "script": "Liverpool is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.25 goals and fair total 2.85.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Arsenal must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Liverpool lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Liverpool chance creation leans on Alexander Isak against Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Liverpool: starters carry the main goal usage through Cody Gakpo, Alexander Isak; bench watchlist: Dominik Szoboszlai, Hugo Ekitiké, Rio Ngumoha.", "Arsenal: starters carry the main goal usage through Kai Havertz; bench watchlist: William Saliba, Martín Zubimendi, Viktor Gyökeres.", "Assist usage should flow through Florian Wirtz, Declan Rice; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Liverpool tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.43 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Arsenal is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Liverpool.", "Arsenal wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Liverpool": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Ronald Araújo": { "player_id": 925097, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 33, "height": 191, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7987, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 56, "possession_lost": 10.3182, "dispossessed": 0.1558, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0495, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.781, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0223, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0248, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363898.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363882.0, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363648.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0127, 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], "others_margin": -0.027329 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.798734188079834, "model_output": 6.7987, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0226, "total": 6.7987, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035258 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.029368 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.017957 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016077 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008123 } ], "others_margin": -0.022519 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0077, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.892, "tackles": 1.4127, "tackles_won": 0.8494, "clearances": 3.1613, "aerial_won": 2.0102, "total_shots": 0.4582, "rating": 6.7987, "minutes": 76.15, "total_pass": 38.5983, "accurate_pass": 32.4523, "duels_won": 4.7619, "total_long_balls": 4.3668, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0563, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6529, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8347, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7993, "crosses_total": 0.7987, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.3654, "possession_lost": 10.3182, "dispossessed": 0.1558, "duels_lost": 2.1022, "aerial_lost": 1.0018, "total_contest": 0.5026, "won_contest": 0.4036, "ball_recovery": 3.7714, "challenges_lost": 0.2771, "fouls": 0.585, "fouls_drawn": 0.1953, "blocks": 0.4797, "goals": 0.0588, 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0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0691 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0451 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": 0.01, "total": 0.4968, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.069085 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.045113 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.035445 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.021411 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.015579 } ], "others_margin": 0.009944 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.003362655639648, "model_output": 7.0034, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0417, quality 0.866)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2618, "tackles": 1.8498, "tackles_won": 1.1292, "clearances": 4.1328, "aerial_won": 1.8437, "total_shots": 0.5176, "rating": 7.0034, "minutes": 87.9, "total_pass": 52.3975, "accurate_pass": 45.842, "duels_won": 6.2343, "total_long_balls": 6.367, "accurate_long_balls": 3.912, "total_own_half_passes": 26.8819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1926, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6493, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.8178, "possession_lost": 8.6705, "dispossessed": 0.8303, "duels_lost": 3.0973, "aerial_lost": 0.8193, "total_contest": 0.8097, "won_contest": 0.6271, "ball_recovery": 2.7484, "challenges_lost": 0.2778, "fouls": 1.056, "fouls_drawn": 0.8034, "blocks": 1.6172, "goals": 0.0, 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"margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041727 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.040446 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.029669 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.024573 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.020198 } ], "others_margin": 0.016553 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.137331008911133, "model_output": 7.1373, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0766 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0648 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0461 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0443 } ], "others": 0.0489, "total": 7.1373, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.076602 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.064805 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.057827 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.04606 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.044258 } ], "others_margin": 0.048997 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 46, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0023, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1607, "tackles": 1.0192, "tackles_won": 0.5857, "clearances": 6.4314, "aerial_won": 3.2696, "total_shots": 0.6067, "rating": 7.1373, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 67.0689, "accurate_pass": 59.3633, "duels_won": 4.956, "total_long_balls": 7.7899, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9762, "total_own_half_passes": 35.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.7302, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.7244, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.633, "crosses_total": 0.0003, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 79.6975, "possession_lost": 8.1638, "dispossessed": 0.0001, "duels_lost": 1.5657, "aerial_lost": 1.0945, "total_contest": 0.0013, "won_contest": 0.0013, "ball_recovery": 2.897, "challenges_lost": 0.035, "fouls": 0.4698, "fouls_drawn": 0.3573, "blocks": 0.3608, "goals": 0.1149, 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"name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0978 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0674, "total": 0.3699, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.09783 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049701 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023737 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.014257 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.013599 } ], "others_margin": -0.067325 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.735954761505127, "model_output": 6.736, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } 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appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7976, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0079, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3729, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5498, "fouls_drawn": 1.7578, "blocks": 0.351, "goals": 0.0381, "goal_rate": 0.0381, "assists": 0.0156, "assist_rate": 0.0156, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "shots_on_target": 0.0951, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.0081, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0083)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7998, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0084, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3788, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0441, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5502, "fouls_drawn": 1.752, "blocks": 0.351, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0.0155, "assist_rate": 0.0155, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "shots_on_target": 0.0988, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0083, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.958, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3729, "after": 0.3788 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.7578, "after": 1.752 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7998, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0084, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3788, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0441, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5502, "fouls_drawn": 1.752, "blocks": 0.351, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0.0155, "assist_rate": 0.0155, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "shots_on_target": 0.0988, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7998, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0084, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3788, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0441, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5502, "fouls_drawn": 1.752, "blocks": 0.351, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0.0155, "assist_rate": 0.0155, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "shots_on_target": 0.0988, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502, "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7998, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0084, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3788, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0441, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5502, "fouls_drawn": 1.752, "blocks": 0.351, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0155, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "shots_on_target": 0.0988, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502, "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.6653, xG scale 0.9332, xA scale 1.1959, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7998, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0084, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3788, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0441, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5502, "fouls_drawn": 1.752, "blocks": 0.351, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0155, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "shots_on_target": 0.0988, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0115, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502, "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1447, "creation_factor": 0.9647 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.554, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6653, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8446, "team_expected_assists": 1.0101, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9332, "xa_scale": 1.1959, "opponent_lambda": 1.301, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7998, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0084, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3788, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0441, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5502, "fouls_drawn": 1.752, "blocks": 0.351, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0155, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "shots_on_target": 0.0988, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0115, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502, "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1447, "creation_factor": 0.9647, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1468, "fifa_rank": 524.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7998, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0084, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3788, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0441, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5502, "fouls_drawn": 1.752, "blocks": 0.351, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0155, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "shots_on_target": 0.0988, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0115, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502, "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0246, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1447, "creation_factor": 0.9647, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0246, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "scorer_weight": 0.0285, "squad_weight_total": 1.6565, "weight_share": 0.0172, "finishing_factor": 1.1447, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5249, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5249, "runner_up": "Cody Gakpo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2454 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cody Gakpo", "weight": 0.2454, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2454, "runner_up": "Alexander Isak", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2234 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7998, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0084, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3788, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0441, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5502, "fouls_drawn": 1.752, "blocks": 0.351, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0155, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "shots_on_target": 0.0988, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0115, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502, "opponent_faced": "Martin Ødegaard", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0246, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0212, "finishing_factor": 1.1447, "creation_factor": 0.9647, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0212, "assist_rate": 0.0155, "provider_weight": 0.0206, "squad_weight_total": 0.9945, "weight_share": 0.0208, "creation_factor": 0.9647, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1867, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1867, "runner_up": "Bradley Barcola", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1854 } ] } } ] }, "Ryan Gravenberch": { "player_id": 904897, 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"expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1446 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0758 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0621 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0591 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0194 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 1.0032, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.144612 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.075789 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.06211 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059103 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.019401 } ], "others_margin": -0.028177 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.852569580078125, "model_output": 6.8526, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", 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2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Declan Rice", "opponent_faced": "Declan Rice", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0481, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.554, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6653, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8446, "team_expected_assists": 1.0101, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9332, "xa_scale": 1.1959, "opponent_lambda": 1.301, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0445, "after": 0.0532 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 53, "combined_rank_score": 65.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 31.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.9833, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 99.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0084, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Florian Wirtz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Giorgian de Arrascaeta", "ranking": 48 }, { "player_name": "Rayan Cherki", "ranking": 49 }, { "player_name": "Rodri", "ranking": 50 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Serafim", "ranking": 51 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Frizzo", "ranking": 52 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Martín Zubimendi", "ranking": 54 }, { "player_name": "Luan Dias", "ranking": 55 }, { "player_name": "César Yanis", "ranking": 56 }, { "player_name": "Pau Cubarsí", "ranking": 57 }, { "player_name": "Declan Rice", "ranking": 58 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", 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1.2334, "duels_lost": 5.6685, "aerial_won": 0.3093, "aerial_lost": 0.9842, "interceptions": 0.3436, "tackles_won": 0.7437, "tackles": 1.3495, "clearances": 0.3994, "total_contest": 2.4118, "won_contest": 0.9576, "challenges_lost": 0.3958, "fouls": 1.6429, "fouls_drawn": 0.7694, "blocks": 0.0364, "big_chances_created": 0.0548, "big_chances_missed": 0.0632, "xgot": 0.0873, "ball_carries": 14.4114, "total_progression": 41.6152, "progressive_carries": 1.7184, "shots_off_target": 1.1159 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-11-01T11:27:07.750726+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 905, "rows": 25067 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-25", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-15", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 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0.0362, "total": 0.1668, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.468924, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.137063 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118952 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.074046 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.05834 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.045014 } ], "others_margin": 0.244342 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.1474643349647522, "model_output": 0.1475, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0445 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0324 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0293 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", 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0.0174 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0048 } ], "others": -0.0038, "total": 0.1635, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.264918 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.135588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111734 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.05841 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.028978 } ], "others_margin": -0.022734 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.16141816973686218, "model_output": 0.1614, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": 0.0117, "total": 0.1614, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.19554 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.15395 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111001 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.059007 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.058575 } ], "others_margin": 0.074568 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.599753737449646, "model_output": 0.5998, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.089 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0616 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0651 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0196 } ], "others": 0.0117, "total": 0.5998, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.24688 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.14097 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130079 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.063362 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.033885 } ], "others_margin": 0.019674 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.7156310081481934, "model_output": 1.7156, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4176 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1449 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0681 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0319 } ], "others": 0.0299, "total": 1.7156, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.417569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.14492 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.068076 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.038318 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.031918 } ], "others_margin": 0.029895 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.008438587188721, "model_output": 7.0084, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0859 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0372 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0315 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0139 } ], "others": 0.0244, "total": 7.0084, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.085902 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.037242 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031506 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.021141 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013934 } ], "others_margin": 0.024322 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.883)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.1212, "expected_assists": 0.1688, "assists": 0.1493, "assist_rate": 0.1493, "expected_goals": 0.1655, "goals": 0.1634, "goal_rate": 0.1634, "shots_on_target": 0.6071, "total_shots": 1.7368, "rating": 7.0084, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 45.747, "accurate_pass": 37.0474, "duels_won": 3.4273, "total_long_balls": 2.9936, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5326, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5653, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.6203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.4821, "crosses_total": 1.9423, "crosses_accurate": 0.5288, "touches": 62.6549, "possession_lost": 16.433, "dispossessed": 1.2486, "duels_lost": 5.7382, "aerial_won": 0.3131, "aerial_lost": 0.9963, "interceptions": 0.3478, "tackles_won": 0.7528, "tackles": 1.3661, "clearances": 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"lower": [ { "player_name": "Nodirbek Abdurazzokov", "ranking": 293 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Słonina", "ranking": 294 }, { "player_name": "Reece James", "ranking": 295 }, { "player_name": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "ranking": 296 }, { "player_name": "Christian Pulišić", "ranking": 297 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0118, quality 0.873)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2722, "goals": 0.2444, "goal_rate": 0.2444, "shots_on_target": 0.7257, "total_shots": 2.257, "expected_assists": 0.1169, "key_pass": 1.3567, "rating": 6.8891, "minutes": 85.06, "total_pass": 24.0391, "accurate_pass": 17.6816, "duels_won": 5.7733, "total_long_balls": 0.5012, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2428, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.201, "crosses_total": 1.2197, "crosses_accurate": 0.2599, "touches": 42.9135, "possession_lost": 13.2614, "dispossessed": 1.4193, "duels_lost": 7.0867, "aerial_lost": 2.236, "total_contest": 2.4376, "won_contest": 1.1821, "ball_recovery": 3.0412, "challenges_lost": 0.9282, "fouls": 1.3775, "fouls_drawn": 1.3167, "assists": 0.3719, "assist_rate": 0.3719, "interceptions": 0.8915, 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0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": 0.0113, "total": 7.0146, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.017093 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.015229 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.013865 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013722 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009537 } ], "others_margin": 0.011291 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0035, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8471, "goals_prevented": 0.0022, "rating": 7.0146, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.8723, "accurate_pass": 20.8463, "total_long_balls": 12.175, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3181, "touches": 38.1681, "clearances": 1.407, "ball_recovery": 8.5796, "high_claims": 0.9938, "punches": 0.9751, "aerial_won": 0.1979, "sweeper_actions": 0.7881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7881, "saves_inside_box": 1.209, "possession_lost": 8.3772, "duels_won": 0.2617, "duels_lost": 0.0906, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0726, "fouls_drawn": 0.1001, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9424 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0035, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8377, "goals_prevented": 0.0022, "rating": 7.0146, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.8723, "accurate_pass": 20.8463, "total_long_balls": 12.175, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3181, "touches": 38.1681, "clearances": 1.407, "ball_recovery": 8.5796, "high_claims": 0.9938, "punches": 0.9751, "aerial_won": 0.1979, "sweeper_actions": 0.7881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7881, "saves_inside_box": 1.209, "possession_lost": 8.3772, "duels_won": 0.2617, "duels_lost": 0.0906, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0773, "fouls_drawn": 0.099, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9424 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8471, "after": 2.8377 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8377, "goals_prevented": 0.0022, "rating": 7.0146, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.8723, "accurate_pass": 20.8463, "total_long_balls": 12.175, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3181, "touches": 38.1681, "clearances": 1.407, "ball_recovery": 8.5796, "high_claims": 0.9938, "punches": 0.9751, "aerial_won": 0.1979, "sweeper_actions": 0.7881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7881, "saves_inside_box": 1.209, "possession_lost": 8.3772, "duels_won": 0.2617, "duels_lost": 0.0906, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0773, "fouls_drawn": 0.099, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9424 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8377, "goals_prevented": 0.0022, "rating": 7.0146, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.8723, "accurate_pass": 20.8463, "total_long_balls": 12.175, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3181, "touches": 38.1681, "clearances": 1.407, "ball_recovery": 8.5796, "high_claims": 0.9938, "punches": 0.9751, "aerial_won": 0.1979, "sweeper_actions": 0.7881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7881, "saves_inside_box": 1.209, "possession_lost": 8.3772, "duels_won": 0.2617, "duels_lost": 0.0906, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0773, "fouls_drawn": 0.099, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9424, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5252, "shots_faced": 14.5, "expected_saves": 3.55, "high_pressure_saves": 1.22, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.5252 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8377, "goals_prevented": 0.0022, "rating": 7.0146, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.8723, "accurate_pass": 20.8463, "total_long_balls": 12.175, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3181, "touches": 38.1681, "clearances": 1.407, "ball_recovery": 8.5796, "high_claims": 0.9938, "punches": 0.9751, "aerial_won": 0.1979, "sweeper_actions": 0.7881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7881, "saves_inside_box": 1.209, "possession_lost": 8.3772, "duels_won": 0.2617, "duels_lost": 0.0906, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0773, "fouls_drawn": 0.099, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9424, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5252, "shots_faced": 14.5, "expected_saves": 3.55, "high_pressure_saves": 1.22, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.6653, xG scale 0.9332, xA scale 1.1959, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8377, "goals_prevented": 0.0022, "rating": 7.0146, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.8723, "accurate_pass": 20.8463, "total_long_balls": 12.175, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3181, "touches": 38.1681, "clearances": 1.407, "ball_recovery": 8.5796, "high_claims": 0.9938, "punches": 0.9751, "aerial_won": 0.1979, "sweeper_actions": 0.7881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7881, "saves_inside_box": 1.209, "possession_lost": 8.3772, "duels_won": 0.2617, "duels_lost": 0.0906, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0773, "fouls_drawn": 0.099, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9424, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5252, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.554, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6653, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8446, "team_expected_assists": 1.0101, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9332, "xa_scale": 1.1959, "opponent_lambda": 1.301, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 14.5, "after": 12.4 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.55, "after": 3.04 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.22, "after": 1.04 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 87.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8377, "goals_prevented": 0.0022, "rating": 7.0146, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.8723, "accurate_pass": 20.8463, "total_long_balls": 12.175, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3181, "touches": 38.1681, "clearances": 1.407, "ball_recovery": 8.5796, "high_claims": 0.9938, "punches": 0.9751, "aerial_won": 0.1979, "sweeper_actions": 0.7881, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7881, "saves_inside_box": 1.209, "possession_lost": 8.3772, "duels_won": 0.2617, "duels_lost": 0.0906, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0773, "fouls_drawn": 0.099, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9424, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5252, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0222, quality 0.891)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4488, "goals": 0.54, "goal_rate": 0.54, "shots_on_target": 1.1269, "total_shots": 2.7489, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.6864, "rating": 6.8969, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 10.7528, "accurate_pass": 7.6009, "duels_won": 1.958, "total_long_balls": 0.5508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3703, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6459, "crosses_total": 0.1698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.8425, "possession_lost": 7.2714, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 3.0417, "aerial_lost": 1.2532, "total_contest": 1.0945, "won_contest": 0.5635, "ball_recovery": 0.8537, "challenges_lost": 0.3818, "fouls": 0.2366, "fouls_drawn": 0.2838, "assists": 0.0203, "assist_rate": 0.0203, "interceptions": 0.1213, "tackles_won": 0.1254, "tackles": 0.1999, "clearances": 0.3584, "blocks": 0.0634, "big_chances_created": 0.0222, "big_chances_missed": 0.3738, "xgot": 0.6991, "offsides": 0.6977, "ball_carries": 4.277, "total_progression": 12.3238, "progressive_carries": 0.833, "shots_off_target": 1.622 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 93000000, "quality_factor": 0.8905, "boost_factor": 1.0222, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0167)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4488, "goals": 0.5384, "goal_rate": 0.5384, "shots_on_target": 1.1302, "total_shots": 2.7546, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.6864, "rating": 6.8969, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 10.7528, "accurate_pass": 7.6009, "duels_won": 1.958, "total_long_balls": 0.5508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3703, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6459, "crosses_total": 0.167, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.8425, "possession_lost": 7.2714, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 3.0417, "aerial_lost": 1.2532, "total_contest": 1.0945, "won_contest": 0.5635, "ball_recovery": 0.8537, "challenges_lost": 0.3818, "fouls": 0.24, "fouls_drawn": 0.2938, "assists": 0.02, "assist_rate": 0.02, "interceptions": 0.1193, "tackles_won": 0.1233, "tackles": 0.1999, "clearances": 0.3584, "blocks": 0.0634, "big_chances_created": 0.0222, "big_chances_missed": 0.3738, "xgot": 0.6991, "offsides": 0.6934, "ball_carries": 4.277, "total_progression": 12.3238, "progressive_carries": 0.833, "shots_off_target": 1.622 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0167, "history_matches": 21, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8823, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2838, "after": 0.2938 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.7489, "after": 2.7546 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4488, "goals": 0.5384, "goal_rate": 0.5384, "shots_on_target": 1.1302, "total_shots": 2.7546, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.6864, "rating": 6.8969, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 10.7528, "accurate_pass": 7.6009, "duels_won": 1.958, "total_long_balls": 0.5508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3703, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6459, "crosses_total": 0.167, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.8425, "possession_lost": 7.2714, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 3.0417, "aerial_lost": 1.2532, "total_contest": 1.0945, "won_contest": 0.5635, "ball_recovery": 0.8537, "challenges_lost": 0.3818, "fouls": 0.24, "fouls_drawn": 0.2938, "assists": 0.02, "assist_rate": 0.02, "interceptions": 0.1193, "tackles_won": 0.1233, "tackles": 0.1999, "clearances": 0.3584, "blocks": 0.0634, "big_chances_created": 0.0222, "big_chances_missed": 0.3738, "xgot": 0.6991, "offsides": 0.6934, "ball_carries": 4.277, "total_progression": 12.3238, "progressive_carries": 0.833, "shots_off_target": 1.622 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4763, "goals": 0.5714, "goal_rate": 0.5714, "shots_on_target": 1.1994, "total_shots": 2.9232, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.6864, "rating": 6.8969, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 10.7528, "accurate_pass": 7.6009, "duels_won": 1.958, "total_long_balls": 0.5508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3703, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6459, "crosses_total": 0.167, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.8425, "possession_lost": 7.2714, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 3.0417, "aerial_lost": 1.2532, "total_contest": 1.0945, "won_contest": 0.5635, "ball_recovery": 0.8537, "challenges_lost": 0.3818, "fouls": 0.24, "fouls_drawn": 0.2938, "assists": 0.02, "assist_rate": 0.02, "interceptions": 0.1193, "tackles_won": 0.1233, "tackles": 0.1999, "clearances": 0.3584, "blocks": 0.0634, "big_chances_created": 0.0222, "big_chances_missed": 0.3967, "xgot": 0.7419, "offsides": 0.6934, "ball_carries": 4.277, "total_progression": 12.3238, "progressive_carries": 0.833, "shots_off_target": 1.7213, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0612, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.242, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães", "opponent_faced": "Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.242, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0612, "skill_edge": 0.0217, "height_edge": 0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.8905, "defender_skill": 0.8424, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ben White", "market_value": 32000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7941 }, { "player": "Gabriel Magalhães", "market_value": 70000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8907 } ], "xg_override": 0.4763 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.7546, "after": 2.9232 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.622, "after": 1.7213 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.1302, "after": 1.1994 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.6991, "after": 0.7419 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.5384, "after": 0.5714 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.4488, "after": 0.4763 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3738, "after": 0.3967 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4763, "goal_rate": 0.5714, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1994, "total_shots": 2.9232, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.6864, "rating": 6.8969, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 10.7528, "accurate_pass": 7.6009, "duels_won": 1.958, "total_long_balls": 0.5508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3703, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6459, "crosses_total": 0.167, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.8425, "possession_lost": 7.2714, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 3.0417, "aerial_lost": 1.2532, "total_contest": 1.0945, "won_contest": 0.5635, "ball_recovery": 0.8537, "challenges_lost": 0.3818, "fouls": 0.24, "fouls_drawn": 0.2938, "assist_rate": 0.02, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1193, "tackles_won": 0.1233, "tackles": 0.1999, "clearances": 0.3584, "blocks": 0.0634, "big_chances_created": 0.0222, "big_chances_missed": 0.3967, "xgot": 0.7419, "offsides": 0.6934, "ball_carries": 4.277, "total_progression": 12.3238, "progressive_carries": 0.833, "shots_off_target": 1.7213, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0612, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.242, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães", "opponent_faced": "Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goals", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.6653, xG scale 0.9332, xA scale 1.1959, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4446, "goal_rate": 0.5714, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1994, "total_shots": 2.9232, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "key_pass": 0.6864, "rating": 6.8969, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 10.7528, "accurate_pass": 7.6009, "duels_won": 1.958, "total_long_balls": 0.5508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3703, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6459, "crosses_total": 0.167, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.8425, "possession_lost": 7.2714, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 3.0417, "aerial_lost": 1.2532, "total_contest": 1.0945, "won_contest": 0.5635, "ball_recovery": 0.8537, "challenges_lost": 0.3818, "fouls": 0.24, "fouls_drawn": 0.2938, "assist_rate": 0.02, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1193, "tackles_won": 0.1233, "tackles": 0.1999, "clearances": 0.3584, "blocks": 0.0634, "big_chances_created": 0.0222, "big_chances_missed": 0.3967, "xgot": 0.6923, "offsides": 0.6934, "ball_carries": 4.277, "total_progression": 12.3238, "progressive_carries": 0.833, "shots_off_target": 1.7213, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0612, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.242, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães", "opponent_faced": "Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1807, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.554, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6653, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8446, "team_expected_assists": 1.0101, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9332, "xa_scale": 1.1959, "opponent_lambda": 1.301, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.4763, "after": 0.4446 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0388, "after": 0.0464 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4446, "goal_rate": 0.5714, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1994, "total_shots": 2.9232, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "key_pass": 0.6864, "rating": 6.8969, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 10.7528, "accurate_pass": 7.6009, "duels_won": 1.958, "total_long_balls": 0.5508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3703, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6459, "crosses_total": 0.167, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.8425, "possession_lost": 7.2714, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 3.0417, "aerial_lost": 1.2532, "total_contest": 1.0945, "won_contest": 0.5635, "ball_recovery": 0.8537, "challenges_lost": 0.3818, "fouls": 0.24, "fouls_drawn": 0.2938, "assist_rate": 0.02, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1193, "tackles_won": 0.1233, "tackles": 0.1999, "clearances": 0.3584, "blocks": 0.0634, "big_chances_created": 0.0222, "big_chances_missed": 0.3967, "xgot": 0.6923, "offsides": 0.6934, "ball_carries": 4.277, "total_progression": 12.3238, "progressive_carries": 0.833, "shots_off_target": 1.7213, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0612, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.242, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães", "opponent_faced": "Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1807, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 236, "fifa_rank": 92.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4446, "goal_rate": 0.5714, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.1994, "total_shots": 2.9232, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "key_pass": 0.6864, "rating": 6.8969, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 10.7528, "accurate_pass": 7.6009, "duels_won": 1.958, "total_long_balls": 0.5508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3703, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6459, "crosses_total": 0.167, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.8425, "possession_lost": 7.2714, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 3.0417, "aerial_lost": 1.2532, "total_contest": 1.0945, "won_contest": 0.5635, "ball_recovery": 0.8537, "challenges_lost": 0.3818, "fouls": 0.24, "fouls_drawn": 0.2938, "assist_rate": 0.02, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1193, "tackles_won": 0.1233, "tackles": 0.1999, "clearances": 0.3584, "blocks": 0.0634, "big_chances_created": 0.0222, "big_chances_missed": 0.3967, "xgot": 0.6923, "offsides": 0.6934, "ball_carries": 4.277, "total_progression": 12.3238, "progressive_carries": 0.833, "shots_off_target": 1.7213, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0612, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.242, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães", "opponent_faced": "Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3589, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1807, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3589, "goal_rate": 0.5714, "scorer_weight": 0.5249, "squad_weight_total": 1.6565, "weight_share": 0.3169, "finishing_factor": 1.1807, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5249, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5249, "runner_up": "Cody Gakpo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2454 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cody Gakpo", "weight": 0.2454, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2454, "runner_up": "Alexander Isak", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2234 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4446, "goal_rate": 0.5714, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.1994, "total_shots": 2.9232, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "key_pass": 0.6864, "rating": 6.8969, "minutes": 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024024.0, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939.0, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": 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"league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025035.0, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 799, "combined_rank_score": 386.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 516.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6166, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jeremie Frimpong", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Christoph Baumgartner", "ranking": 794 }, { "player_name": "Matías Viña", "ranking": 795 }, { "player_name": "Valeri Gromyko", "ranking": 796 }, { "player_name": "Islomzhon Kobilov", "ranking": 797 }, { "player_name": "Khurshid Giyosov", "ranking": 798 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego Oyarzún", "ranking": 800 }, { "player_name": "Leroy Sané", "ranking": 801 }, { "player_name": "Kang-in Lee", "ranking": 802 }, { "player_name": "Harvey Barnes", "ranking": 803 }, { "player_name": "Nicola Pérez", "ranking": 804 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": 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"others_margin": -0.033701 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.923405647277832, "model_output": 6.9234, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0806 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0641 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0614 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0144 } ], "others": 0.007, "total": 6.9234, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.080625 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.064062 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061373 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.019939 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.014372 } ], "others_margin": 0.007001 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1597, "tackles": 0.3514, "tackles_won": 0.2436, "clearances": 0.4056, "aerial_won": 0.1263, "total_shots": 0.1056, "rating": 6.9234, "minutes": 14.77, "total_pass": 10.3822, "accurate_pass": 9.5884, "duels_won": 0.7319, "total_long_balls": 0.4321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2284, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6659, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3746, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2138, "crosses_total": 0.0875, "crosses_accurate": 0.0105, "touches": 14.0201, "possession_lost": 1.6137, "dispossessed": 0.3803, "duels_lost": 0.8575, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "total_contest": 0.0651, "won_contest": 0.0546, "ball_recovery": 1.1253, "challenges_lost": 0.9595, "fouls": 0.0262, "fouls_drawn": 0.203, "blocks": 0.0742, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "shots_on_target": 0.0888, "big_chances_created": 0.0107, "xgot": 0.0134, "ball_carries": 4.631, "total_progression": 11.2772, "progressive_carries": 0.2828, "key_pass": 0.1679, "shots_off_target": 0.0168, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.353, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1597, "tackles": 0.3514, "tackles_won": 0.2436, "clearances": 0.4056, "aerial_won": 0.1263, "total_shots": 0.1056, "rating": 6.9234, "minutes": 14.77, "total_pass": 10.3822, "accurate_pass": 9.5884, "duels_won": 0.7319, "total_long_balls": 0.4321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2284, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6659, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3746, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2138, "crosses_total": 0.0875, "crosses_accurate": 0.0105, "touches": 14.0201, "possession_lost": 1.6137, 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"projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0888, "big_chances_created": 0.0107, "xgot": 0.0134, "ball_carries": 4.631, "total_progression": 11.2772, "progressive_carries": 0.2828, "key_pass": 0.1679, "shots_off_target": 0.0168, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.353, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.77, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1450, "fifa_rank": 684.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] }, "Dominik Szoboszlai": { 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"Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.0117, "expected_assists": 0.4671, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024024.0, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1626, "expected_assists": 0.1667, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939.0, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1619, "expected_assists": 0.2436, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 59, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 78, "combined_rank_score": 84.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 85.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5333, "sofascore_appearances": 12.0, "fifa_rank": 83.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9997, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Silva Denisson", "ranking": 73 }, { "player_name": "Désiré Doué", "ranking": 74 }, { "player_name": "Chema Andrés", "ranking": 75 }, { "player_name": "Youri Tielemans", "ranking": 76 }, { "player_name": "Marc Cucurella", "ranking": 77 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Thibaut Courtois", "ranking": 79 }, { "player_name": "Otávio Costa", "ranking": 80 }, { "player_name": "Marc Guéhi", "ranking": 81 }, { "player_name": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "ranking": 82 }, { "player_name": "Valdívia", "ranking": 83 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", 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"description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1355, "expected_assists": 0.1166, "assists": 0.0856, "assist_rate": 0.0856, "expected_goals": 0.0932, "goals": 0.1426, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "shots_on_target": 0.2873, "total_shots": 0.8562, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 51.9363, "accurate_pass": 45.1285, "duels_won": 2.8485, "total_long_balls": 4.5156, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1197, "total_own_half_passes": 21.2346, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8497, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.2788, "crosses_total": 5.6789, "crosses_accurate": 1.7234, "touches": 72.1313, "possession_lost": 13.5401, "dispossessed": 0.8562, "duels_lost": 4.9089, "aerial_won": 0.6406, "aerial_lost": 1.1536, "interceptions": 0.7237, "tackles_won": 0.5376, "tackles": 1.3223, "clearances": 1.2195, "total_contest": 0.8423, "won_contest": 0.3309, "challenges_lost": 0.7923, "fouls": 1.5954, "fouls_drawn": 0.5548, "blocks": 0.2583, "big_chances_created": 0.7416, "big_chances_missed": 0.0694, "xgot": 0.2457, "ball_carries": 17.6996, "total_progression": 76.6782, "progressive_carries": 1.7372, "shots_off_target": 0.5689 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-11-01T11:27:07.750726+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 905, "rows": 25067 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, 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"keyPass", "margin": 0.104875 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.081719 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.076483 } ], "others_margin": 0.10032 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09316210448741913, "model_output": 0.0932, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0756 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0918, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0084 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0067, "total": 0.0932, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": 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], "others": 0.0133, "total": 0.1426, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.350422 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.289238 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.160296 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.155974 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.058432 } ], "others_margin": 0.097305 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2872766852378845, "model_output": 0.2873, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1483 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0495 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0382 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": 0.0325, "total": 0.2873, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.628189 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.255935 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.160804 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.054154 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.044441 } ], "others_margin": 0.119941 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.856158971786499, "model_output": 0.8562, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5831 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3878 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0667 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0624 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0429 } ], "others": 0.0194, "total": 0.8562, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.583131 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.387779 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.066689 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.062438 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.042938 } ], "others_margin": 0.019387 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.999685764312744, "model_output": 6.9997, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0997 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0802 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0605 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0658, "total": 6.9997, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.099655 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.080198 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.060544 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.019835 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.015717 } ], "others_margin": 0.065644 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.890)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1495, "expected_assists": 0.1181, "assists": 0.0866, "assist_rate": 0.0866, "expected_goals": 0.0943, "goals": 0.1444, "goal_rate": 0.1444, "shots_on_target": 0.2908, "total_shots": 0.8667, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 52.5751, "accurate_pass": 45.6836, "duels_won": 2.8835, "total_long_balls": 4.5711, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1581, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0816, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.0793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.602, "crosses_total": 5.7488, "crosses_accurate": 1.7446, "touches": 73.0185, "possession_lost": 13.7066, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 4.9693, "aerial_won": 0.6485, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.7326, "tackles_won": 0.5442, "tackles": 1.3386, "clearances": 1.2345, "total_contest": 0.8527, "won_contest": 0.335, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 1.615, "fouls_drawn": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.2615, "big_chances_created": 0.7507, "big_chances_missed": 0.0703, "xgot": 0.2487, "ball_carries": 17.9173, "total_progression": 77.6213, "progressive_carries": 1.7586, "shots_off_target": 0.5759 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 91000000, "quality_factor": 0.8895, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 23.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1477, "assists": 0.1083, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "expected_goals": 0.1179, "goals": 0.1806, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.311, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.76, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2507, "appearance_probability": 0.58 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1477, "assists": 0.1083, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "expected_goals": 0.1179, "goals": 0.1806, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.311, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1477, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1179, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.311, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.6653, xG scale 0.9332, xA scale 1.1959, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.1683, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8007 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.554, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6653, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8446, "team_expected_assists": 1.0101, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9332, "xa_scale": 1.1959, "opponent_lambda": 1.301, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.58 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1179, "after": 0.0638 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1477, "after": 0.1025 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.1683, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8007, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 78, "fifa_rank": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.1683, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0604, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8007, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0604, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "scorer_weight": 0.0797, "squad_weight_total": 1.6565, "weight_share": 0.0481, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.58, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5249, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5249, "runner_up": "Cody Gakpo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2454 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cody Gakpo", "weight": 0.2454, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2454, "runner_up": "Alexander Isak", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2234 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.1683, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0604, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.094, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8007, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.094, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "provider_weight": 0.0821, "squad_weight_total": 0.9945, "weight_share": 0.0825, "creation_factor": 0.8007, "appearance_weight": 0.58, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1867, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1867, "runner_up": "Bradley Barcola", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1854 } ] } } ] }, "Mohamed Salah": { "player_id": 159665, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 175, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1031, "assist_rate": 0.1711, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0806, "goal_rate": 0.109, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.043, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 7.041, "dispossessed": 0.4624, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.008, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023962.0, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2541, "expected_assists": 0.444, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": 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1.9960689544677734, "model_output": 1.9961, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.717 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6638 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.1167 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.115 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.1074 } ], "others": 0.6189, "total": 1.9961, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.716977 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.663813 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.116687 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1386, "goals": 0.1314, "goal_rate": 0.1314, "shots_on_target": 0.3317, "total_shots": 1.0344, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.4569, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 24.05, "total_pass": 7.6748, "accurate_pass": 6.3364, "duels_won": 1.6139, "total_long_balls": 0.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7444, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4061, "crosses_total": 0.4719, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2765, "possession_lost": 4.4962, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.374, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.3707, "won_contest": 0.7945, "ball_recovery": 0.8418, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7815, "fouls_drawn": 0.3417, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0846, "tackles": 0.2225, "clearances": 0.638, "blocks": 0.1172, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 5.4827, "total_progression": 23.8012, "progressive_carries": 1.0763, "shots_off_target": 0.7026 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1558, "goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.04, "projection_minutes": 24.05, "minutes_scale": 1.1244, "appearance_probability": 0.638 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1558, "goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1558, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.6653, xG scale 0.9332, xA scale 1.1959, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0928, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.554, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6653, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8446, "team_expected_assists": 1.0101, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9332, "xa_scale": 1.1959, "opponent_lambda": 1.301, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.638 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1558, "after": 0.0928 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0392, "after": 0.0299 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0928, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 476, "fifa_rank": 144.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0928, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0864, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0864, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "scorer_weight": 0.0891, "squad_weight_total": 1.6565, "weight_share": 0.0538, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "appearance_weight": 0.638, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5249, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5249, "runner_up": "Cody Gakpo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2454 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cody Gakpo", "weight": 0.2454, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2454, "runner_up": "Alexander Isak", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2234 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0928, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0864, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0292, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0292, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0239, "squad_weight_total": 0.9945, "weight_share": 0.0241, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.638, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1867, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1867, "runner_up": "Bradley Barcola", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1854 } ] } } ] }, "Rio Ngumoha": { "player_id": 1881902, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 73, "height": 170, "market_value": 49000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 27, 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"substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0473, "finishing_factor": 1.1641, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363898.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 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"contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.4428, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.498152 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.063835 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055168 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.036135 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.032791 } ], "others_margin": -0.025407 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.680644989013672, "model_output": 6.6806, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.065 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0364, "total": 6.6806, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065017 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021847 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012243 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010282 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.009407 } ], "others_margin": -0.036402 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0158, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0529, "goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0675, "shots_on_target": 0.1998, "total_shots": 0.6687, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "key_pass": 0.4498, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 19.4, "total_pass": 6.2353, "accurate_pass": 5.3337, "duels_won": 1.6819, "total_long_balls": 0.0916, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9532, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3251, "crosses_total": 1.0643, "crosses_accurate": 0.2618, "touches": 12.2394, "possession_lost": 3.662, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.3545, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 1.5027, "won_contest": 1.1227, "ball_recovery": 1.0646, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.2988, "fouls_drawn": 0.5103, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0708, "tackles_won": 0.0119, "tackles": 0.0489, "clearances": 0.135, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.075, "big_chances_missed": 0.098, "xgot": 0.0392, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8057, "total_progression": 49.2613, "progressive_carries": 1.9225, "shots_off_target": 0.4689 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 49000000, "quality_factor": 0.8206, "boost_factor": 1.0158, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.4 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0731, "goals": 0.0933, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0542, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.81, "projection_minutes": 19.4, "minutes_scale": 1.3819, "appearance_probability": 0.628 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0731, "goals": 0.0933, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0542, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0731, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0542, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.6653, xG scale 0.9332, xA scale 1.1959, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0318, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1641, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.554, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6653, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8446, "team_expected_assists": 1.0101, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9332, "xa_scale": 1.1959, "opponent_lambda": 1.301, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.628 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0731, "after": 0.0428 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0655, "after": 0.0492 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0318, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1641, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3315, "fifa_rank": 2186.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0318, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1641, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "scorer_weight": 0.0498, "squad_weight_total": 1.6565, "weight_share": 0.0301, "finishing_factor": 1.1641, "appearance_weight": 0.628, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5249, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5249, "runner_up": "Cody Gakpo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2454 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cody Gakpo", "weight": 0.2454, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2454, "runner_up": "Alexander Isak", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2234 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0318, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0473, "finishing_factor": 1.1641, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0473, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0394, "squad_weight_total": 0.9945, "weight_share": 0.0396, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.628, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1867, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1867, "runner_up": "Bradley Barcola", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1854 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Hugo Ekitiké": { "player_id": 1048422, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 190, "market_value": 77000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0928, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, 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"importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2493 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": 0.0003, "total": 0.4493, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.447011 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.073289 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.047563 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.042982 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.032057 } ], "others_margin": 0.000641 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.746876239776611, "model_output": 6.7469, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0866 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": 0.0514, "total": 6.7469, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08659 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019957 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012254 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.012064 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011022 } ], "others_margin": 0.051387 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1386, "goals": 0.1314, "goal_rate": 0.1314, "shots_on_target": 0.3317, "total_shots": 1.0344, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.4569, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 24.05, "total_pass": 7.6748, "accurate_pass": 6.3364, "duels_won": 1.6139, "total_long_balls": 0.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7444, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4061, "crosses_total": 0.4719, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2765, "possession_lost": 4.4962, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.374, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.3707, "won_contest": 0.7945, "ball_recovery": 0.8418, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7815, "fouls_drawn": 0.3417, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0846, "tackles": 0.2225, "clearances": 0.638, "blocks": 0.1172, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 5.4827, "total_progression": 23.8012, "progressive_carries": 1.0763, "shots_off_target": 0.7026 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1558, "goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.04, "projection_minutes": 24.05, "minutes_scale": 1.1244, "appearance_probability": 0.638 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1558, "goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1558, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.6653, xG scale 0.9332, xA scale 1.1959, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0928, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.554, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6653, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8446, "team_expected_assists": 1.0101, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9332, "xa_scale": 1.1959, "opponent_lambda": 1.301, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.638 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1558, "after": 0.0928 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0392, "after": 0.0299 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0928, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 476, "fifa_rank": 144.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0928, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0864, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0864, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "scorer_weight": 0.0891, "squad_weight_total": 1.6565, "weight_share": 0.0538, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "appearance_weight": 0.638, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5249, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5249, "runner_up": "Cody Gakpo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2454 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cody Gakpo", "weight": 0.2454, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2454, "runner_up": "Alexander Isak", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2234 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0928, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0864, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0292, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0292, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0239, "squad_weight_total": 0.9945, "weight_share": 0.0241, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.638, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1867, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1867, "runner_up": "Bradley Barcola", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1854 } ] } } ] }, "Rio Ngumoha": { "player_id": 1881902, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 73, "height": 170, "market_value": 49000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 27, 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"contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.4428, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.498152 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.063835 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055168 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.036135 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.032791 } ], "others_margin": -0.025407 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.680644989013672, "model_output": 6.6806, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.065 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0364, "total": 6.6806, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065017 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021847 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012243 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010282 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.009407 } ], "others_margin": -0.036402 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0158, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0529, "goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0675, "shots_on_target": 0.1998, "total_shots": 0.6687, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "key_pass": 0.4498, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 19.4, "total_pass": 6.2353, "accurate_pass": 5.3337, "duels_won": 1.6819, "total_long_balls": 0.0916, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9532, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3251, "crosses_total": 1.0643, "crosses_accurate": 0.2618, "touches": 12.2394, "possession_lost": 3.662, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.3545, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 1.5027, "won_contest": 1.1227, "ball_recovery": 1.0646, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.2988, "fouls_drawn": 0.5103, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0708, "tackles_won": 0.0119, "tackles": 0.0489, "clearances": 0.135, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.075, "big_chances_missed": 0.098, "xgot": 0.0392, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8057, "total_progression": 49.2613, "progressive_carries": 1.9225, "shots_off_target": 0.4689 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 49000000, "quality_factor": 0.8206, "boost_factor": 1.0158, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.4 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0731, "goals": 0.0933, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0542, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.81, "projection_minutes": 19.4, "minutes_scale": 1.3819, "appearance_probability": 0.628 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0731, "goals": 0.0933, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0542, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0731, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0542, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.6653, xG scale 0.9332, xA scale 1.1959, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0318, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1641, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.554, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6653, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8446, "team_expected_assists": 1.0101, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9332, "xa_scale": 1.1959, "opponent_lambda": 1.301, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.628 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0731, "after": 0.0428 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0655, "after": 0.0492 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0318, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1641, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3315, "fifa_rank": 2186.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0318, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1641, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "scorer_weight": 0.0498, "squad_weight_total": 1.6565, "weight_share": 0.0301, "finishing_factor": 1.1641, "appearance_weight": 0.628, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5249, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5249, "runner_up": "Cody Gakpo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2454 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cody Gakpo", "weight": 0.2454, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2454, "runner_up": "Alexander Isak", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2234 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0933, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.9241, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.6216, "rating": 6.6806, "minutes": 26.81, "total_pass": 8.6167, "accurate_pass": 7.3708, "duels_won": 2.3243, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.977, "crosses_total": 1.4708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3618, "touches": 16.914, "possession_lost": 5.0606, "dispossessed": 0.4986, "duels_lost": 1.8718, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "total_contest": 2.0766, "won_contest": 1.5515, "ball_recovery": 1.4712, "challenges_lost": 0.0827, "fouls": 0.4129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7052, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0978, "tackles_won": 0.0164, "tackles": 0.0676, "clearances": 0.1866, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1036, "big_chances_missed": 0.1354, "xgot": 0.0318, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.405, "total_progression": 68.0756, "progressive_carries": 2.6568, "shots_off_target": 0.648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.628, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.81, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0473, "finishing_factor": 1.1641, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0473, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0394, "squad_weight_total": 0.9945, "weight_share": 0.0396, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.628, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1867, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1867, "runner_up": "Bradley Barcola", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1854 } ] } } ] }, "Dominik Szoboszlai": { "player_id": 869856, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 91000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 57, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33, "crosses_total": 7, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 91, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1683, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 97, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.583131 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.387779 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.066689 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.062438 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.042938 } ], "others_margin": 0.019387 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.999685764312744, "model_output": 6.9997, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0997 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0802 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0605 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0658, "total": 6.9997, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.099655 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.080198 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.060544 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.019835 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.015717 } ], "others_margin": 0.065644 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.890)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1495, "expected_assists": 0.1181, "assists": 0.0866, "assist_rate": 0.0866, "expected_goals": 0.0943, "goals": 0.1444, "goal_rate": 0.1444, "shots_on_target": 0.2908, "total_shots": 0.8667, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 52.5751, "accurate_pass": 45.6836, "duels_won": 2.8835, "total_long_balls": 4.5711, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1581, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0816, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.0793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.602, "crosses_total": 5.7488, "crosses_accurate": 1.7446, "touches": 73.0185, "possession_lost": 13.7066, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 4.9693, "aerial_won": 0.6485, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.7326, "tackles_won": 0.5442, "tackles": 1.3386, "clearances": 1.2345, "total_contest": 0.8527, "won_contest": 0.335, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 1.615, "fouls_drawn": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.2615, "big_chances_created": 0.7507, "big_chances_missed": 0.0703, "xgot": 0.2487, "ball_carries": 17.9173, "total_progression": 77.6213, "progressive_carries": 1.7586, "shots_off_target": 0.5759 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 91000000, "quality_factor": 0.8895, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 23.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1477, "assists": 0.1083, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "expected_goals": 0.1179, "goals": 0.1806, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.311, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.76, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2507, "appearance_probability": 0.58 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1477, "assists": 0.1083, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "expected_goals": 0.1179, "goals": 0.1806, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.311, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1477, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1179, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.311, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.55 (squad xG sum 1.6653, xG scale 0.9332, xA scale 1.1959, team xA 1.01 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.1683, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8007 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.554, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6653, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8446, "team_expected_assists": 1.0101, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9332, "xa_scale": 1.1959, "opponent_lambda": 1.301, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.58 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1179, "after": 0.0638 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1477, "after": 0.1025 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.1683, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8007, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 78, "fifa_rank": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.1683, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0604, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8007, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0604, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "scorer_weight": 0.0797, "squad_weight_total": 1.6565, "weight_share": 0.0481, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.58, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5249, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5249, "runner_up": "Cody Gakpo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2454 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cody Gakpo", "weight": 0.2454, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2454, "runner_up": "Alexander Isak", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2234 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4376, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3637, "total_shots": 1.084, "rating": 6.9997, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 65.7537, "accurate_pass": 57.1348, "duels_won": 3.6063, "total_long_balls": 5.7169, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 26.884, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8646, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.2701, "crosses_total": 7.1898, "crosses_accurate": 2.1819, "touches": 91.3215, "possession_lost": 17.1423, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 6.2149, "aerial_won": 0.8111, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.9162, "tackles_won": 0.6806, "tackles": 1.6741, "clearances": 1.5439, "total_contest": 1.0664, "won_contest": 0.419, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 2.0198, "fouls_drawn": 0.7024, "blocks": 0.327, "big_chances_created": 0.9389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0879, "xgot": 0.1683, "ball_carries": 22.4085, "total_progression": 97.0781, "progressive_carries": 2.1994, "shots_off_target": 0.7203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0070, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9289, "goals_prevented": -0.0529, "rating": 7.0674, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1874, "accurate_pass": 18.5476, "total_long_balls": 15.297, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0807, "touches": 42.3593, "clearances": 1.0109, "ball_recovery": 10.8022, "high_claims": 1.4035, "punches": 0.8599, "aerial_won": 0.6954, "sweeper_actions": 0.9212, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9212, "saves_inside_box": 1.3564, "possession_lost": 11.0723, "duels_won": 1.305, "duels_lost": 0.0112, "total_contest": 0.0016, "won_contest": 0.0016, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7105, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8179, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5439 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 33000000, "quality_factor": 0.7389, "boost_factor": 1.007, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0087)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9079, "goals_prevented": -0.0529, "rating": 7.0674, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1874, "accurate_pass": 18.5476, "total_long_balls": 15.297, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0807, "touches": 42.3593, "clearances": 1.0109, "ball_recovery": 10.8022, "high_claims": 1.4035, "punches": 0.8599, "aerial_won": 0.6954, "sweeper_actions": 0.9212, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9212, "saves_inside_box": 1.3564, "possession_lost": 11.0723, "duels_won": 1.305, "duels_lost": 0.0112, "total_contest": 0.0016, "won_contest": 0.0016, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8179, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5439 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0087, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9289, "after": 2.9079 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7105, "after": 0.7043 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9079, "goals_prevented": -0.0529, "rating": 7.0674, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1874, "accurate_pass": 18.5476, "total_long_balls": 15.297, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0807, "touches": 42.3593, "clearances": 1.0109, "ball_recovery": 10.8022, "high_claims": 1.4035, "punches": 0.8599, "aerial_won": 0.6954, "sweeper_actions": 0.9212, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9212, "saves_inside_box": 1.3564, "possession_lost": 11.0723, "duels_won": 1.305, "duels_lost": 0.0112, "total_contest": 0.0016, "won_contest": 0.0016, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8179, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5439 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9079, "goals_prevented": -0.0529, "rating": 7.0674, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1874, "accurate_pass": 18.5476, "total_long_balls": 15.297, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0807, "touches": 42.3593, "clearances": 1.0109, "ball_recovery": 10.8022, "high_claims": 1.4035, "punches": 0.8599, "aerial_won": 0.6954, "sweeper_actions": 0.9212, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9212, "saves_inside_box": 1.3564, "possession_lost": 11.0723, "duels_won": 1.305, "duels_lost": 0.0112, "total_contest": 0.0016, "won_contest": 0.0016, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8179, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5439, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8305, "shots_faced": 17.4, "expected_saves": 4.26, "high_pressure_saves": 1.46, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.8305 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9079, "goals_prevented": -0.0529, "rating": 7.0674, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1874, "accurate_pass": 18.5476, "total_long_balls": 15.297, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0807, "touches": 42.3593, "clearances": 1.0109, "ball_recovery": 10.8022, "high_claims": 1.4035, "punches": 0.8599, "aerial_won": 0.6954, "sweeper_actions": 0.9212, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9212, "saves_inside_box": 1.3564, "possession_lost": 11.0723, "duels_won": 1.305, "duels_lost": 0.0112, "total_contest": 0.0016, "won_contest": 0.0016, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8179, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5439, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8305, "shots_faced": 17.4, "expected_saves": 4.26, "high_pressure_saves": 1.46, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3911, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 0.9100, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9079, "goals_prevented": -0.0529, "rating": 7.0674, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1874, "accurate_pass": 18.5476, "total_long_balls": 15.297, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0807, "touches": 42.3593, "clearances": 1.0109, "ball_recovery": 10.8022, "high_claims": 1.4035, "punches": 0.8599, "aerial_won": 0.6954, "sweeper_actions": 0.9212, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9212, "saves_inside_box": 1.3564, "possession_lost": 11.0723, "duels_won": 1.305, "duels_lost": 0.0112, "total_contest": 0.0016, "won_contest": 0.0016, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8179, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5439, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8305, "shots_faced": 14.8, "expected_saves": 3.63, "high_pressure_saves": 1.24, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.301, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3911, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1438, "team_expected_assists": 1.0408, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 0.91, "opponent_lambda": 1.554, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 17.4, "after": 14.8 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 4.26, "after": 3.63 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.46, "after": 1.24 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9079, "goals_prevented": -0.0529, "rating": 7.0674, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1874, "accurate_pass": 18.5476, "total_long_balls": 15.297, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0807, "touches": 42.3593, "clearances": 1.0109, "ball_recovery": 10.8022, "high_claims": 1.4035, "punches": 0.8599, "aerial_won": 0.6954, "sweeper_actions": 0.9212, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9212, "saves_inside_box": 1.3564, "possession_lost": 11.0723, "duels_won": 1.305, "duels_lost": 0.0112, "total_contest": 0.0016, "won_contest": 0.0016, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8179, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5439, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8305, "shots_faced": 14.8, "expected_saves": 3.63, "high_pressure_saves": 1.24, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363257.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0142, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8079, "tackles": 1.68, "tackles_won": 1.0541, "clearances": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 1.0856, "total_shots": 0.45, "rating": 6.8781, "minutes": 75.29, "total_pass": 40.8806, "accurate_pass": 33.2968, "duels_won": 3.7651, "total_long_balls": 4.011, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2049, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4899, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7433, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.3906, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.5534, "crosses_total": 1.7465, "crosses_accurate": 0.385, "touches": 59.0967, "possession_lost": 11.5707, "dispossessed": 0.2692, "duels_lost": 1.5985, "aerial_lost": 0.5238, "total_contest": 0.4546, "won_contest": 0.2253, "ball_recovery": 2.8121, "challenges_lost": 0.4136, "fouls": 0.2635, "fouls_drawn": 0.9206, "blocks": 0.2602, "goals": 0.0, 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"clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 443, "combined_rank_score": 268.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 342.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9912, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 195.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9304, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ezri Konsa", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rodrigo De Paul", "ranking": 438 }, { "player_name": "Fejsal Mulić", "ranking": 439 }, { "player_name": "Abrorbek Ismoilov", "ranking": 440 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"history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0621 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0191, "total": 0.5645, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062116 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.022059 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016369 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.016119 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014345 } ], "others_margin": -0.01909 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.930424213409424, "model_output": 6.9304, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0402 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.04 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": 0.0095, "total": 6.9304, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.045516 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.040198 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.040041 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01838 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.014779 } ], "others_margin": 0.009491 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0107, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9569, "tackles": 1.3164, "tackles_won": 0.719, "clearances": 3.5949, "aerial_won": 1.8201, "total_shots": 0.5705, "rating": 6.9304, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.9219, "accurate_pass": 55.7686, "duels_won": 4.8226, "total_long_balls": 2.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6174, "total_own_half_passes": 39.7142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.9708, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7978, "crosses_total": 0.0279, "crosses_accurate": 0.0255, "touches": 69.3092, "possession_lost": 3.0209, "dispossessed": 0.3476, "duels_lost": 2.7754, "aerial_lost": 1.662, "total_contest": 0.1927, "won_contest": 0.1908, "ball_recovery": 3.5475, "challenges_lost": 0.2599, "fouls": 0.5972, "fouls_drawn": 1.8094, "blocks": 0.5414, "goals": 0.1543, "goal_rate": 0.1543, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0948, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "shots_on_target": 0.1543, "big_chances_created": 0.0043, "xgot": 0.131, "ball_carries": 18.539, "total_progression": 61.0181, "progressive_carries": 0.2773, "key_pass": 0.1309, "shots_off_target": 0.4162 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 53000000, "quality_factor": 0.834, "boost_factor": 1.0107, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9564, "tackles": 1.3164, "tackles_won": 0.7187, "clearances": 3.5949, "aerial_won": 1.8201, "total_shots": 0.5702, "rating": 6.9304, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.9219, "accurate_pass": 55.7686, "duels_won": 4.8226, "total_long_balls": 2.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6174, "total_own_half_passes": 39.7142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.9708, 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historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9564, "tackles": 1.3164, "tackles_won": 0.7187, "clearances": 3.5949, "aerial_won": 1.8201, "total_shots": 0.5704, "rating": 6.9304, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.9219, "accurate_pass": 55.7686, "duels_won": 4.8226, "total_long_balls": 2.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6174, "total_own_half_passes": 39.7142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.9708, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7978, "crosses_total": 0.0279, "crosses_accurate": 0.0255, "touches": 69.3092, "possession_lost": 3.0209, "dispossessed": 0.3476, "duels_lost": 2.7754, "aerial_lost": 1.662, "total_contest": 0.1927, "won_contest": 0.1908, "ball_recovery": 3.5475, "challenges_lost": 0.2599, "fouls": 0.5969, "fouls_drawn": 1.8085, "blocks": 0.5414, "goals": 0.1542, "goal_rate": 0.1542, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0948, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "shots_on_target": 0.1542, "big_chances_created": 0.0043, "xgot": 0.131, "ball_carries": 18.539, "total_progression": 61.0181, "progressive_carries": 0.2773, "key_pass": 0.1309, "shots_off_target": 0.4162 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9564, "tackles": 1.3164, "tackles_won": 0.7187, "clearances": 3.5949, "aerial_won": 1.8201, "total_shots": 0.5704, "rating": 6.9304, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.9219, "accurate_pass": 55.7686, "duels_won": 4.8226, "total_long_balls": 2.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6174, "total_own_half_passes": 39.7142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.9708, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7978, "crosses_total": 0.0279, "crosses_accurate": 0.0255, "touches": 69.3092, "possession_lost": 3.0209, "dispossessed": 0.3476, "duels_lost": 2.7754, "aerial_lost": 1.662, "total_contest": 0.1927, "won_contest": 0.1908, "ball_recovery": 3.5475, "challenges_lost": 0.2599, "fouls": 0.5969, "fouls_drawn": 1.8085, "blocks": 0.5414, "goals": 0.1542, "goal_rate": 0.1542, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0948, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "shots_on_target": 0.1542, "big_chances_created": 0.0043, "xgot": 0.131, "ball_carries": 18.539, "total_progression": 61.0181, "progressive_carries": 0.2773, "key_pass": 0.1309, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "opponent_faced": "Cody Gakpo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Cody Gakpo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9564, "tackles": 1.3164, "tackles_won": 0.7187, "clearances": 3.5949, "aerial_won": 1.8201, "total_shots": 0.5704, "rating": 6.9304, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.9219, "accurate_pass": 55.7686, "duels_won": 4.8226, "total_long_balls": 2.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6174, "total_own_half_passes": 39.7142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.9708, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7978, "crosses_total": 0.0279, "crosses_accurate": 0.0255, "touches": 69.3092, "possession_lost": 3.0209, "dispossessed": 0.3476, "duels_lost": 2.7754, "aerial_lost": 1.662, "total_contest": 0.1927, "won_contest": 0.1908, "ball_recovery": 3.5475, "challenges_lost": 0.2599, "fouls": 0.5969, "fouls_drawn": 1.8085, "blocks": 0.5414, "goal_rate": 0.1542, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0948, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "shots_on_target": 0.1542, "big_chances_created": 0.0043, "xgot": 0.131, "ball_carries": 18.539, "total_progression": 61.0181, "progressive_carries": 0.2773, "key_pass": 0.1309, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "opponent_faced": "Cody Gakpo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3911, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 0.9100, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9564, "tackles": 1.3164, "tackles_won": 0.7187, "clearances": 3.5949, "aerial_won": 1.8201, "total_shots": 0.5704, "rating": 6.9304, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.9219, "accurate_pass": 55.7686, "duels_won": 4.8226, "total_long_balls": 2.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6174, "total_own_half_passes": 39.7142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.9708, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7978, "crosses_total": 0.0279, "crosses_accurate": 0.0255, "touches": 69.3092, "possession_lost": 3.0209, "dispossessed": 0.3476, "duels_lost": 2.7754, "aerial_lost": 1.662, "total_contest": 0.1927, "won_contest": 0.1908, "ball_recovery": 3.5475, "challenges_lost": 0.2599, "fouls": 0.5969, "fouls_drawn": 1.8085, "blocks": 0.5414, "goal_rate": 0.1542, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0887, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "shots_on_target": 0.1542, "big_chances_created": 0.0043, "xgot": 0.1225, "ball_carries": 18.539, "total_progression": 61.0181, "progressive_carries": 0.2773, "key_pass": 0.1309, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "opponent_faced": "Cody Gakpo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8562 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.301, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3911, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1438, "team_expected_assists": 1.0408, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 0.91, "opponent_lambda": 1.554, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0948, "after": 0.0887 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9564, "tackles": 1.3164, "tackles_won": 0.7187, "clearances": 3.5949, "aerial_won": 1.8201, "total_shots": 0.5704, "rating": 6.9304, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.9219, "accurate_pass": 55.7686, "duels_won": 4.8226, "total_long_balls": 2.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6174, "total_own_half_passes": 39.7142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.9708, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7978, "crosses_total": 0.0279, "crosses_accurate": 0.0255, "touches": 69.3092, "possession_lost": 3.0209, "dispossessed": 0.3476, "duels_lost": 2.7754, "aerial_lost": 1.662, "total_contest": 0.1927, "won_contest": 0.1908, "ball_recovery": 3.5475, "challenges_lost": 0.2599, "fouls": 0.5969, "fouls_drawn": 1.8085, "blocks": 0.5414, "goal_rate": 0.1542, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0887, "expected_assists": 0.0076, 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projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9564, "tackles": 1.3164, "tackles_won": 0.7187, "clearances": 3.5949, "aerial_won": 1.8201, "total_shots": 0.5704, "rating": 6.9304, "minutes": 89.99, "total_pass": 57.9219, "accurate_pass": 55.7686, "duels_won": 4.8226, "total_long_balls": 2.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6174, "total_own_half_passes": 39.7142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.9708, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7978, "crosses_total": 0.0279, "crosses_accurate": 0.0255, "touches": 69.3092, "possession_lost": 3.0209, "dispossessed": 0.3476, "duels_lost": 2.7754, "aerial_lost": 1.662, "total_contest": 0.1927, "won_contest": 0.1908, "ball_recovery": 3.5475, "challenges_lost": 0.2599, "fouls": 0.5969, "fouls_drawn": 1.8085, "blocks": 0.5414, "goal_rate": 0.1542, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0887, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "shots_on_target": 0.1542, "big_chances_created": 0.0043, "xgot": 0.1225, "ball_carries": 18.539, "total_progression": 61.0181, "progressive_carries": 0.2773, "key_pass": 0.1309, "shots_off_target": 0.4162, "opponent_faced": "Cody Gakpo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0849, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0076, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8562, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0076, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0065, "squad_weight_total": 1.0624, "weight_share": 0.0061, "creation_factor": 0.8562, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.2253, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2253, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2071, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] }, "Gabriel Magalhães": { "player_id": 869792, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 190, "market_value": 70000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1317, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 50, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 73, "possession_lost": 7.9552, "dispossessed": 0.6365, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.1574, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0221, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1924, "expected_assists": 0.0332, 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"contribution": 0.0691 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0626 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0427 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0217 } ], "others": 0.0871, "total": 7.1317, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.069136 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.062568 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.049659 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.042694 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.021701 } ], "others_margin": 0.087167 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0122, quality 0.871)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1471, "tackles": 1.4223, "tackles_won": 0.8153, "clearances": 6.0953, "aerial_won": 2.3912, "total_shots": 0.9342, "rating": 7.1317, "minutes": 89.97, "total_pass": 57.0014, "accurate_pass": 50.4381, "duels_won": 5.2934, "total_long_balls": 5.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.86, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6874, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.635, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.7507, "crosses_total": 0.0858, "crosses_accurate": 0.007, "touches": 72.9217, "possession_lost": 7.9552, "dispossessed": 0.6365, "duels_lost": 4.2825, "aerial_lost": 2.4449, "total_contest": 0.0584, "won_contest": 0.058, "ball_recovery": 2.829, "challenges_lost": 0.3854, "fouls": 0.82, "fouls_drawn": 1.2027, "blocks": 1.1812, "goals": 0.1589, "goal_rate": 0.1589, "assists": 0.0223, "assist_rate": 0.0223, "expected_goals": 0.2057, "expected_assists": 0.0365, "shots_on_target": 0.5264, "big_chances_created": 0.024, "xgot": 0.2672, "ball_carries": 17.4594, "total_progression": 55.7773, "progressive_carries": 0.6029, "key_pass": 0.2737, "shots_off_target": 0.4077 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 70000000, "quality_factor": 0.8707, "boost_factor": 1.0122, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1505, "tackles": 1.4223, "tackles_won": 0.8075, "clearances": 6.0953, "aerial_won": 2.3912, "total_shots": 0.9348, "rating": 7.1317, "minutes": 89.97, "total_pass": 57.0014, "accurate_pass": 50.4381, "duels_won": 5.2934, "total_long_balls": 5.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.86, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6874, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.635, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.7507, "crosses_total": 0.085, "crosses_accurate": 0.007, "touches": 72.9217, "possession_lost": 7.9552, "dispossessed": 0.6365, "duels_lost": 4.2825, "aerial_lost": 2.4449, "total_contest": 0.0584, "won_contest": 0.058, "ball_recovery": 2.829, "challenges_lost": 0.3854, "fouls": 0.8265, "fouls_drawn": 1.2007, "blocks": 1.1812, "goals": 0.1574, "goal_rate": 0.1574, "assists": 0.0221, "assist_rate": 0.0221, "expected_goals": 0.2057, "expected_assists": 0.0365, "shots_on_target": 0.5213, "big_chances_created": 0.024, "xgot": 0.2672, "ball_carries": 17.4594, "total_progression": 55.7773, "progressive_carries": 0.6029, "key_pass": 0.2737, "shots_off_target": 0.4077 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9997, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8153, "after": 0.8075 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.82, "after": 0.8265 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5264, "after": 0.5213 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1505, "tackles": 1.4223, "tackles_won": 0.8075, "clearances": 6.0953, "aerial_won": 2.3912, "total_shots": 0.9348, "rating": 7.1317, "minutes": 89.97, "total_pass": 57.0014, "accurate_pass": 50.4381, "duels_won": 5.2934, "total_long_balls": 5.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.86, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6874, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.635, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.7507, "crosses_total": 0.085, "crosses_accurate": 0.007, "touches": 72.9217, "possession_lost": 7.9552, "dispossessed": 0.6365, "duels_lost": 4.2825, "aerial_lost": 2.4449, "total_contest": 0.0584, "won_contest": 0.058, "ball_recovery": 2.829, "challenges_lost": 0.3854, "fouls": 0.8265, 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.7507, "crosses_total": 0.085, "crosses_accurate": 0.007, "touches": 72.9217, "possession_lost": 7.9552, "dispossessed": 0.6365, "duels_lost": 4.2825, "aerial_lost": 2.4449, "total_contest": 0.0584, "won_contest": 0.058, "ball_recovery": 2.829, "challenges_lost": 0.3854, "fouls": 0.8265, "fouls_drawn": 1.2007, "blocks": 1.1812, "goals": 0.1574, "goal_rate": 0.1574, "assists": 0.0221, "assist_rate": 0.0221, "expected_goals": 0.2057, "expected_assists": 0.0365, "shots_on_target": 0.5213, "big_chances_created": 0.024, "xgot": 0.2672, "ball_carries": 17.4594, "total_progression": 55.7773, "progressive_carries": 0.6029, "key_pass": 0.2737, "shots_off_target": 0.4077, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1505, "tackles": 1.4223, "tackles_won": 0.8075, "clearances": 6.0953, "aerial_won": 2.3912, "total_shots": 0.9348, "rating": 7.1317, "minutes": 89.97, "total_pass": 57.0014, "accurate_pass": 50.4381, "duels_won": 5.2934, "total_long_balls": 5.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.86, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6874, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.635, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.7507, "crosses_total": 0.085, "crosses_accurate": 0.007, "touches": 72.9217, "possession_lost": 7.9552, "dispossessed": 0.6365, "duels_lost": 4.2825, "aerial_lost": 2.4449, "total_contest": 0.0584, "won_contest": 0.058, "ball_recovery": 2.829, "challenges_lost": 0.3854, "fouls": 0.8265, "fouls_drawn": 1.2007, "blocks": 1.1812, "goal_rate": 0.1574, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0221, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2057, "expected_assists": 0.0365, "shots_on_target": 0.5213, "big_chances_created": 0.024, "xgot": 0.2672, "ball_carries": 17.4594, "total_progression": 55.7773, "progressive_carries": 0.6029, "key_pass": 0.2737, "shots_off_target": 0.4077, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3911, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 0.9100, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1505, "tackles": 1.4223, "tackles_won": 0.8075, "clearances": 6.0953, "aerial_won": 2.3912, "total_shots": 0.9348, "rating": 7.1317, "minutes": 89.97, "total_pass": 57.0014, "accurate_pass": 50.4381, "duels_won": 5.2934, "total_long_balls": 5.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.86, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6874, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.635, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.7507, "crosses_total": 0.085, "crosses_accurate": 0.007, "touches": 72.9217, "possession_lost": 7.9552, "dispossessed": 0.6365, "duels_lost": 4.2825, "aerial_lost": 2.4449, "total_contest": 0.0584, "won_contest": 0.058, "ball_recovery": 2.829, "challenges_lost": 0.3854, "fouls": 0.8265, "fouls_drawn": 1.2007, "blocks": 1.1812, "goal_rate": 0.1574, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0221, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1924, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "shots_on_target": 0.5213, "big_chances_created": 0.024, "xgot": 0.2499, "ball_carries": 17.4594, "total_progression": 55.7773, "progressive_carries": 0.6029, "key_pass": 0.2737, "shots_off_target": 0.4077, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8111, "creation_factor": 0.8335 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.301, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3911, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1438, "team_expected_assists": 1.0408, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 0.91, "opponent_lambda": 1.554, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2057, "after": 0.1924 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1505, "tackles": 1.4223, "tackles_won": 0.8075, "clearances": 6.0953, "aerial_won": 2.3912, "total_shots": 0.9348, "rating": 7.1317, "minutes": 89.97, "total_pass": 57.0014, "accurate_pass": 50.4381, "duels_won": 5.2934, "total_long_balls": 5.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.86, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6874, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.635, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.7507, "crosses_total": 0.085, "crosses_accurate": 0.007, "touches": 72.9217, "possession_lost": 7.9552, "dispossessed": 0.6365, "duels_lost": 4.2825, "aerial_lost": 2.4449, "total_contest": 0.0584, "won_contest": 0.058, "ball_recovery": 2.829, "challenges_lost": 0.3854, "fouls": 0.8265, "fouls_drawn": 1.2007, "blocks": 1.1812, "goal_rate": 0.1574, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0221, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1924, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "shots_on_target": 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"fifa_rank": 28.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1505, "tackles": 1.4223, "tackles_won": 0.8075, "clearances": 6.0953, "aerial_won": 2.3912, "total_shots": 0.9348, "rating": 7.1317, "minutes": 89.97, "total_pass": 57.0014, "accurate_pass": 50.4381, "duels_won": 5.2934, "total_long_balls": 5.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.86, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.6874, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.635, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.7507, "crosses_total": 0.085, "crosses_accurate": 0.007, "touches": 72.9217, "possession_lost": 7.9552, "dispossessed": 0.6365, "duels_lost": 4.2825, "aerial_lost": 2.4449, "total_contest": 0.0584, "won_contest": 0.058, "ball_recovery": 2.829, "challenges_lost": 0.3854, 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true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.175, "goal_rate": 0.1574, "scorer_weight": 0.1561, "squad_weight_total": 1.3395, "weight_share": 0.1165, "finishing_factor": 0.8111, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.2714, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2714, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2502 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1505, "tackles": 1.4223, "tackles_won": 0.8075, "clearances": 6.0953, "aerial_won": 2.3912, "total_shots": 0.9348, "rating": 7.1317, "minutes": 89.97, "total_pass": 57.0014, "accurate_pass": 50.4381, "duels_won": 5.2934, "total_long_balls": 5.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.86, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3664, 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"importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0601 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0091, "total": 0.5279, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060108 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024047 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019426 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.014489 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.014186 } ], "others_margin": -0.009101 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.830304145812988, "model_output": 6.8303, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0065 } ], "others": 0.0145, "total": 6.8303, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.020157 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013785 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010596 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.006543 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.006526 } ], "others_margin": 0.01457 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0176, quality 0.869)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7464, "tackles": 1.194, "tackles_won": 0.7693, "clearances": 1.735, "aerial_won": 0.6756, "total_shots": 0.5372, "rating": 6.8303, "minutes": 73.96, "total_pass": 47.0743, "accurate_pass": 43.6265, "duels_won": 3.7139, "total_long_balls": 1.8301, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9361, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5989, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.3677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.0277, "crosses_total": 0.3666, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.2599, "possession_lost": 5.8916, "dispossessed": 0.5995, "duels_lost": 2.6031, "aerial_lost": 0.2762, "total_contest": 0.3546, "won_contest": 0.1634, "ball_recovery": 2.4843, "challenges_lost": 0.1175, "fouls": 1.4186, "fouls_drawn": 2.0858, "blocks": 0.3329, "goals": 0.0, 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"possession_lost": 5.8916, "dispossessed": 0.5995, "duels_lost": 2.6031, "aerial_lost": 0.2762, "total_contest": 0.3546, "won_contest": 0.1634, "ball_recovery": 2.4843, "challenges_lost": 0.1175, "fouls": 1.4065, "fouls_drawn": 2.0883, "blocks": 0.3329, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "expected_assists": 0.0944, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.1604, "total_progression": 55.6206, "progressive_carries": 0.6346, "key_pass": 0.4272, "shots_off_target": 0.5372, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.536, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7428, "tackles": 1.194, "tackles_won": 0.7596, "clearances": 1.735, "aerial_won": 0.6756, "total_shots": 0.5421, "rating": 6.8303, "minutes": 73.96, "total_pass": 47.0743, "accurate_pass": 43.6265, "duels_won": 3.7139, "total_long_balls": 1.8301, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9361, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5989, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.3677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.0277, "crosses_total": 0.362, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.2599, "possession_lost": 5.8916, "dispossessed": 0.5995, "duels_lost": 2.6031, "aerial_lost": 0.2762, "total_contest": 0.3546, "won_contest": 0.1634, "ball_recovery": 2.4843, "challenges_lost": 0.1175, "fouls": 1.4065, "fouls_drawn": 2.0883, "blocks": 0.3329, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "expected_assists": 0.0944, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.1604, "total_progression": 55.6206, "progressive_carries": 0.6346, "key_pass": 0.4272, "shots_off_target": 0.5372, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.536, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player 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"assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.1604, "total_progression": 55.6206, "progressive_carries": 0.6346, "key_pass": 0.4272, "shots_off_target": 0.5372, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.536, "opponent_faced": "Florian Wirtz", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.301, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3911, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1438, "team_expected_assists": 1.0408, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 0.91, "opponent_lambda": 1.554, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0944, "after": 0.0859 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0166, "total": 0.317, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129285 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.066759 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.061346 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.052224 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.034358 } ], "others_margin": -0.050924 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0101585388183594, "model_output": 1.0102, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1475 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0421 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0316 } ], "others": -0.1082, "total": 1.0102, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.147514 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.042117 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.038889 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.035449 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.031553 } ], "others_margin": -0.108288 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.111543655395508, "model_output": 7.1115, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1217 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0803 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0224 } ], "others": -0.0211, "total": 7.1115, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.121724 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.080303 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027494 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.023255 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022396 } ], "others_margin": -0.021032 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3441, "expected_assists": 0.1143, "assists": 0.099, "assist_rate": 0.099, "expected_goals": 0.0808, "goals": 0.0936, "goal_rate": 0.0936, "shots_on_target": 0.3214, "total_shots": 1.0243, "rating": 7.1115, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 52.6607, "accurate_pass": 45.2778, "duels_won": 6.9932, "total_long_balls": 4.0742, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4369, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6301, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9839, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.0305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.2939, "crosses_total": 3.1853, "crosses_accurate": 0.7493, "touches": 72.1471, "possession_lost": 14.2662, "dispossessed": 1.5871, "duels_lost": 4.6854, "aerial_won": 0.9279, "aerial_lost": 0.3567, "interceptions": 0.5553, "tackles_won": 1.1113, "tackles": 1.9255, "clearances": 1.144, "total_contest": 2.1286, "won_contest": 1.2296, "challenges_lost": 0.6256, "fouls": 1.349, "fouls_drawn": 2.9102, "blocks": 0.4626, "big_chances_created": 0.2065, "big_chances_missed": 0.1347, "xgot": 0.1695, "ball_carries": 23.2834, "total_progression": 54.4492, "progressive_carries": 1.0682, "shots_off_target": 0.7029 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.014, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3441, "expected_assists": 0.1143, "assists": 0.0989, "assist_rate": 0.0989, "expected_goals": 0.0808, "goals": 0.0935, "goal_rate": 0.0935, "shots_on_target": 0.3211, "total_shots": 1.0232, "rating": 7.1115, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 52.6607, "accurate_pass": 45.2778, "duels_won": 6.9932, "total_long_balls": 4.0742, "accurate_long_balls": 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"importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1996 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1041 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1052 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.1097 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0828 } ], "others": 0.346, "total": 1.6391, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.253505 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.110421 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.100427 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.094996 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.066161 } ], "others_margin": 0.237227 } }, { "target": "rating", 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85.6616, "progressive_carries": 4.8964, "shots_off_target": 1.4185 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.124, "goals": 0.1498, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "shots_on_target": 0.5747, "total_shots": 1.9119, "expected_assists": 0.1219, "key_pass": 1.6604, "rating": 6.8972, "minutes": 73.77, "total_pass": 25.8927, "accurate_pass": 21.3312, "duels_won": 3.6843, "total_long_balls": 0.9157, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1557, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7601, "crosses_total": 3.7961, "crosses_accurate": 1.1528, "touches": 43.6859, "possession_lost": 12.5664, "dispossessed": 1.2709, "duels_lost": 5.6517, "aerial_lost": 0.3375, "total_contest": 3.7703, "won_contest": 1.81, "ball_recovery": 2.3988, "challenges_lost": 1.0982, "fouls": 0.9831, "fouls_drawn": 0.3978, "assists": 0.0315, 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numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.124, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5747, "total_shots": 1.9119, "expected_assists": 0.1219, "key_pass": 1.6604, "rating": 6.8972, "minutes": 73.77, "total_pass": 25.8927, "accurate_pass": 21.3312, "duels_won": 3.6843, "total_long_balls": 0.9157, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1557, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7601, "crosses_total": 3.7961, "crosses_accurate": 1.1528, "touches": 43.6859, "possession_lost": 12.5664, "dispossessed": 1.2709, "duels_lost": 5.6517, "aerial_lost": 0.3375, "total_contest": 3.7703, "won_contest": 1.81, "ball_recovery": 2.3988, "challenges_lost": 1.0982, "fouls": 0.9831, "fouls_drawn": 0.3978, "assist_rate": 0.0315, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2045, "tackles_won": 0.3865, "tackles": 1.076, "clearances": 0.259, "blocks": 0.0268, "big_chances_created": 0.4191, "big_chances_missed": 0.0351, "xgot": 0.0798, 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"description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3047, "expected_assists": 0.2063, "assist_rate": 0.2328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2141, "goal_rate": 0.2863, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7834, "total_shots": 2.0131, "rating": 7.3178, "minutes": 82.59, "total_pass": 61.1772, "accurate_pass": 54.5625, "duels_won": 2.0159, "total_long_balls": 3.4602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7338, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3308, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2678, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.8465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.2948, "crosses_total": 2.0104, "crosses_accurate": 0.312, "touches": 73.6837, "possession_lost": 12.4921, "dispossessed": 0.8089, "duels_lost": 3.3068, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3248, "interceptions": 0.2676, "tackles_won": 0.4017, "tackles": 0.6151, "clearances": 0.3032, "total_contest": 1.5153, 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"big_chances_created": 0.0687, "xgot": 0.0418, "ball_carries": 17.0681, "total_progression": 59.9281, "progressive_carries": 0.4546, "key_pass": 0.4812, "shots_off_target": 0.111 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-11-01T11:26:13.602980+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 631, "rows": 22117 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-18", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-22", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 5.1849, "aerialWon": 2.5428, "totalClearance_p90": 5.2449, "totalTackle": 1.114, "totalTackle_p90": 1.114 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3287910223007202, "model_output": 0.3288, "scale": 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-0.014552 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.47957706451416016, "model_output": 0.4796, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7394 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0207 } ], "others": -0.0738, "total": 0.4796, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.761165 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.044054 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.038598 }, { "name": 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true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.982104 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.200301 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.048961 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.037022 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.036004 } ], "others_margin": -0.001194 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8074464201927185, "model_output": 0.8074, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8141 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1719 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0472 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0476 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0266 } ], "others": 0.0117, "total": 0.8074, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.902374 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.26963 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.062847 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.059597 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.032926 } ], "others_margin": 0.014753 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.15939852595329285, "model_output": 0.1594, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1988 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.092 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0141, "total": 0.1594, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.198839 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.091981 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017365 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013622 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013084 } ], "others_margin": -0.014201 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.799343585968018, "model_output": 6.7993, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1006 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0487 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0225 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 6.7993, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.100581 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.048711 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.027348 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.022546 } ], "others_margin": -0.028183 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0161, quality 0.891)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3341, "tackles": 0.4873, "tackles_won": 0.2741, "clearances": 1.792, "aerial_won": 0.8204, "total_shots": 0.162, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 27.0, "total_pass": 66.7557, "accurate_pass": 62.1709, "duels_won": 4.4072, "total_long_balls": 3.9748, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1846, "total_own_half_passes": 40.864, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0198, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8918, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.1512, "crosses_total": 0.1992, "crosses_accurate": 0.0688, "touches": 78.4171, "possession_lost": 5.7857, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 3.5239, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.3346, "won_contest": 0.2751, "ball_recovery": 3.5097, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.8666, "fouls_drawn": 0.4166, "blocks": 0.3294, "goals": 0.0492, "goal_rate": 0.0492, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.0492, "big_chances_created": 0.0698, "xgot": 0.0425, "ball_carries": 17.3429, "total_progression": 60.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.4619, "key_pass": 0.4889, "shots_off_target": 0.1128 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 94000000, "quality_factor": 0.891, "boost_factor": 1.0161, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.0 to 15.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.38)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goals": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.0642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.37, "projection_minutes": 27.0, "minutes_scale": 0.5692, "appearance_probability": 0.38 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goals": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.0642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goal_rate": 0.028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.0642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3911, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 0.9100, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goal_rate": 0.028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0052, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.0642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2056, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.301, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3911, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1438, "team_expected_assists": 1.0408, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 0.91, "opponent_lambda": 1.554, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.38 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0147, "after": 0.0052 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0425, "after": 0.0147 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goal_rate": 0.028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0052, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.0642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2056, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 232, "fifa_rank": 28.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goal_rate": 0.028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0052, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.0642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0052, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2056, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0052, "goal_rate": 0.028, "scorer_weight": 0.0063, "squad_weight_total": 1.3395, "weight_share": 0.0047, "finishing_factor": 1.2056, "appearance_weight": 0.38, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.2714, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2714, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2502 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "finishing_factor": 1.2056, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0118, "squad_weight_total": 1.0624, "weight_share": 0.0111, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.38, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.2253, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2253, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2071, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jurriën Timber": { "player_id": 958959, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 179, "market_value": 73000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.689, "minutes": 15, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0142, quality 0.875)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3266, "tackles": 0.5888, "tackles_won": 0.3533, "clearances": 0.7787, "aerial_won": 0.3111, "total_shots": 0.2323, "rating": 6.689, "minutes": 27.8, "total_pass": 13.2119, "accurate_pass": 11.1539, "duels_won": 0.8583, "total_long_balls": 1.7936, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7149, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8024, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2045, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4094, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9494, "crosses_total": 0.5059, "crosses_accurate": 0.2325, "touches": 20.0797, "possession_lost": 4.3101, "dispossessed": 0.168, "duels_lost": 2.0342, "aerial_lost": 0.4786, "total_contest": 0.8445, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3083, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6859, "fouls_drawn": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1798, "tackles": 0.3241, "tackles_won": 0.1945, "clearances": 0.4287, "aerial_won": 0.1713, "total_shots": 0.1279, "rating": 6.689, "minutes": 15.3, "total_pass": 7.273, "accurate_pass": 6.1401, "duels_won": 0.4725, "total_long_balls": 0.9874, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1942, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.865, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2751, "crosses_total": 0.2785, "crosses_accurate": 0.128, "touches": 11.0537, "possession_lost": 2.3727, "dispossessed": 0.168, "duels_lost": 1.1198, "aerial_lost": 0.4786, "total_contest": 0.4649, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2707, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3776, "fouls_drawn": 0.0786, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363633.0, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963.0, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 55, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023950.0, "match_date": "2026-05-18", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023942.0, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "West 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"ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 54, "combined_rank_score": 82.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 65.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.62, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 99.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.721, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Martín Zubimendi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rayan Cherki", "ranking": 49 }, { "player_name": "Rodri", "ranking": 50 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Serafim", "ranking": 51 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Frizzo", "ranking": 52 }, { "player_name": "Florian Wirtz", "ranking": 53 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luan Dias", "ranking": 55 }, { "player_name": "César Yanis", "ranking": 56 }, { "player_name": "Pau Cubarsí", "ranking": 57 }, { "player_name": "Declan Rice", "ranking": 58 }, { "player_name": "Frenkie de Jong", "ranking": 59 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", 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0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0018 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.0363, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.531479 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.177224 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.080487 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.043567 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.033925 } ], "others_margin": -0.091819 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.09193629771471024, "model_output": 0.0919, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.131 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": -0.0208, "total": 0.0919, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.531 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.283294 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.117999 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.061162 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.043036 } ], "others_margin": -0.204082 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3716261684894562, "model_output": 0.3716, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3541 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2018 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0169 } ], "others": 0.016, "total": 0.3716, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.354064 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.201828 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.035515 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.021024 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.016856 } ], "others_margin": 0.015978 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.720966815948486, "model_output": 6.721, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.094 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0032, "total": 6.721, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.093965 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021201 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020114 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009387 } ], "others_margin": -0.003254 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0115, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2358, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.04, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goals": 0.0367, "goal_rate": 0.0367, "shots_on_target": 0.093, "total_shots": 0.3759, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 16.8494, "accurate_pass": 14.5369, "duels_won": 1.5856, "total_long_balls": 0.9033, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5147, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6438, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2125, "possession_lost": 3.7226, "dispossessed": 0.5532, "duels_lost": 2.0364, "aerial_won": 0.8372, "aerial_lost": 0.6298, "interceptions": 0.5087, "tackles_won": 0.4179, "tackles": 0.6878, "clearances": 0.3079, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0606, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5941, "total_progression": 13.6598, "progressive_carries": 0.2608, "shots_off_target": 0.2829 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0115, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0013)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2358, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goals": 0.0367, "goal_rate": 0.0367, "shots_on_target": 0.0929, "total_shots": 0.3754, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 16.8494, "accurate_pass": 14.5369, "duels_won": 1.5856, "total_long_balls": 0.9033, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5147, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6438, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2125, "possession_lost": 3.7226, "dispossessed": 0.5532, "duels_lost": 2.0364, "aerial_won": 0.8372, "aerial_lost": 0.6298, "interceptions": 0.508, "tackles_won": 0.4183, "tackles": 0.6878, "clearances": 0.3079, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6919, "fouls_drawn": 0.0605, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5941, "total_progression": 13.6598, "progressive_carries": 0.2608, "shots_off_target": 0.2829 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0013, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2212, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 18.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2241, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "expected_goals": 0.033, "goals": 0.0349, "goal_rate": 0.0349, "shots_on_target": 0.0883, "total_shots": 0.3571, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 16.0116, "accurate_pass": 13.8141, "duels_won": 1.5068, "total_long_balls": 0.8584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4891, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6001, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.214, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0583, "possession_lost": 3.5375, "dispossessed": 0.5532, "duels_lost": 1.9351, "aerial_won": 0.7956, "aerial_lost": 0.6298, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.3975, "tackles": 0.6536, "clearances": 0.2926, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6575, "fouls_drawn": 0.0575, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4154, "total_progression": 12.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.2478, "shots_off_target": 0.2688, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.92, "projection_minutes": 19.91, "minutes_scale": 0.9503, "appearance_probability": 0.728 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2241, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "expected_goals": 0.033, "goals": 0.0349, "goal_rate": 0.0349, "shots_on_target": 0.0883, "total_shots": 0.3571, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 16.0116, "accurate_pass": 13.8141, "duels_won": 1.5068, "total_long_balls": 0.8584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4891, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6001, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.214, "crosses_total": 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"is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-31", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-23", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.5195, "creative_index": 0.2794, "expectedGoals": 0.108, "expectedAssists": 0.0558, "keyPass": 0.6148 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4581705927848816, "model_output": 0.4582, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1373 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0712 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0516 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0289 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8902, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4087 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"name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0756 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0918, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0451 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0038 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0041, "total": 0.0403, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.674953 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.220435 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.141492 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.085226 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.057959 } ], "others_margin": -0.096548 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05368460714817047, "model_output": 0.0537, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.004 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": 0.0036, "total": 0.0537, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.568643 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.175871 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.100223 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.077923 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.068489 } ], "others_margin": 0.068613 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22626997530460358, "model_output": 0.2263, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1298 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0434 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": 0.0134, "total": 0.2263, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.524619 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.207746 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.183408 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.060973 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.038877 } ], "others_margin": 0.060492 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5462558269500732, "model_output": 0.5463, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4322 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1841 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1189 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0409 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0323 } ], "others": 0.0502, "total": 0.5463, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.432183 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.184055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.118852 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.040941 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.032251 } ], "others_margin": 0.050017 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.676353931427002, "model_output": 6.6764, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.081 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0449 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 6.6764, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.081001 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044862 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.039297 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019899 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007596 } ], "others_margin": -0.028195 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0376, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4754, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "assists": 0.0515, "assist_rate": 0.0515, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goals": 0.0557, "goal_rate": 0.0557, "shots_on_target": 0.2348, "total_shots": 0.5668, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 16.42, "total_pass": 5.5112, "accurate_pass": 5.1103, "duels_won": 1.7766, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7105, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7105, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3997, "crosses_total": 1.0177, "crosses_accurate": 0.3354, "touches": 12.9185, "possession_lost": 3.6833, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 2.8019, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.1655, "tackles_won": 0.1728, "tackles": 0.1728, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.288, "won_contest": 0.8856, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.3698, "fouls_drawn": 0.7181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.119, "ball_carries": 5.4853, "total_progression": 27.4606, "progressive_carries": 0.9938, "shots_off_target": 0.332 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0376, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.4 to 23.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1705, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.53, "projection_minutes": 16.42, "minutes_scale": 1.433, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1705, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1705, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3911, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 0.9100, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0909, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.301, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3911, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1438, "team_expected_assists": 1.0408, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 0.91, "opponent_lambda": 1.554, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0599, "after": 0.0319 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0576, "after": 0.0299 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0909, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1510, "fifa_rank": 945.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0909, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.031, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "scorer_weight": 0.0377, "squad_weight_total": 1.3395, "weight_share": 0.0281, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.2714, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2714, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2502 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0909, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.031, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0291, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0291, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "provider_weight": 0.0344, "squad_weight_total": 1.0624, "weight_share": 0.0324, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.2253, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2253, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2071, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] }, "Bukayo Saka": { "player_id": 934235, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 115000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1941, "goal_rate": 0.1693, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.134, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0472, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 6.6119, "dispossessed": 0.3715, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.176, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1996, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.371, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.11, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, 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"substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0472, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bukayo Saka", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Martin Ødegaard", "ranking": 40 }, { "player_name": "Lionel Messi", "ranking": 41 }, { "player_name": "Abdumavlon Abduzhalilov", "ranking": 42 }, { "player_name": "Eryin Sanhueza", "ranking": 43 }, { "player_name": "Euller", "ranking": 44 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Federico Valverde", "ranking": 46 }, { "player_name": "Ayrton Lucas", "ranking": 47 }, { "player_name": "Giorgian de Arrascaeta", "ranking": 48 }, { "player_name": "Rayan Cherki", "ranking": 49 }, { "player_name": "Rodri", "ranking": 50 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", 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"totalPass", "margin": 0.10074 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.086325 } ], "others_margin": 0.392782 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8091267943382263, "model_output": 0.8091, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2417 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0716 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0604 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0506 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0367 } ], "others": 0.1398, "total": 0.8091, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0137, quality 0.897)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1639, "goals": 0.1416, "goal_rate": 0.1416, "shots_on_target": 0.4309, "total_shots": 1.3273, "expected_assists": 0.1131, "key_pass": 0.8202, "rating": 7.0472, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 10.2439, "accurate_pass": 7.7309, "duels_won": 2.1401, "total_long_balls": 0.8052, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2847, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5683, "crosses_total": 2.4071, "crosses_accurate": 1.0721, "touches": 18.2086, "possession_lost": 5.5824, "dispossessed": 0.3715, "duels_lost": 1.8952, "aerial_lost": 0.2075, "total_contest": 0.8052, "won_contest": 0.5014, "ball_recovery": 0.9326, "challenges_lost": 0.2358, "fouls": 0.7766, "fouls_drawn": 0.6778, "assists": 0.1499, "assist_rate": 0.1499, "interceptions": 0.2441, "tackles_won": 0.4537, "tackles": 0.4537, "clearances": 0.2075, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1499, "big_chances_missed": 0.3565, "xgot": 0.1685, "offsides": 0.3236, "ball_carries": 4.9025, "total_progression": 29.2467, "progressive_carries": 1.6475, "shots_off_target": 0.8964 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 115000000, "quality_factor": 0.8968, "boost_factor": 1.0137, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1639, "goals": 0.1429, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "shots_on_target": 0.4297, "total_shots": 1.3222, "expected_assists": 0.1131, "key_pass": 0.8202, "rating": 7.0472, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 10.2439, "accurate_pass": 7.7309, "duels_won": 2.1401, "total_long_balls": 0.8052, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2847, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5475, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5683, 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1.0617, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.371, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.11, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.371, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 187, "market_value": 61000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 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"tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023942.0, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1151, "expected_assists": 0.0283, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": 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"accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2738 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0344 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0176, "total": 0.358, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.504007 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086005 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.052213 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.039974 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.033379 } ], "others_margin": -0.047404 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.622554779052734, "model_output": 6.6226, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.058 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0286, "total": 6.6226, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057959 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029019 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011966 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011597 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011546 } ], "others_margin": -0.028692 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.855)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0831, "goals": 0.105, "goal_rate": 0.105, "shots_on_target": 0.207, "total_shots": 0.617, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "key_pass": 0.3621, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 4.8881, "accurate_pass": 3.7003, "duels_won": 0.8846, "total_long_balls": 0.1437, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1437, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9708, "crosses_total": 0.1499, "crosses_accurate": 0.0883, "touches": 9.3148, "possession_lost": 3.279, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.344, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.5538, "won_contest": 0.0883, "ball_recovery": 1.0564, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 0.9645, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1437, "tackles": 0.2188, "clearances": 0.1382, "blocks": 0.1098, "big_chances_created": 0.3662, "big_chances_missed": 0.0954, "xgot": 0.0917, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0072, "total_progression": 15.9546, "progressive_carries": 0.9117, "shots_off_target": 0.4099 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 61000000, "quality_factor": 0.8548, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goals": 0.1224, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.6454, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3835, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1675, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.4268, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.1069, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5047, "total_progression": 18.5941, "progressive_carries": 1.0625, "shots_off_target": 0.4777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.94, "projection_minutes": 23.12, "minutes_scale": 1.1654, "appearance_probability": 0.634 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goals": 0.1224, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.6454, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3835, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1675, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.4268, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.1069, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5047, "total_progression": 18.5941, "progressive_carries": 1.0625, "shots_off_target": 0.4777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.6454, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3835, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1675, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.4268, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.1069, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5047, "total_progression": 18.5941, "progressive_carries": 1.0625, "shots_off_target": 0.4777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3911, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 0.9100, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.6454, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3835, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1675, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.4268, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5047, "total_progression": 18.5941, "progressive_carries": 1.0625, "shots_off_target": 0.4777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1744, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.301, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3911, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1438, "team_expected_assists": 1.0408, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 0.91, "opponent_lambda": 1.554, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.634 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0968, "after": 0.0574 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0441, "after": 0.0254 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.6454, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3835, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1675, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.4268, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5047, "total_progression": 18.5941, "progressive_carries": 1.0625, "shots_off_target": 0.4777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1744, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 116, "fifa_rank": 96.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.6454, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3835, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1675, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.4268, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5047, "total_progression": 18.5941, "progressive_carries": 1.0625, "shots_off_target": 0.4777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0549, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1744, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "scorer_weight": 0.0674, "squad_weight_total": 1.3395, "weight_share": 0.0503, "finishing_factor": 1.1744, "appearance_weight": 0.634, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.2714, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2714, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2502 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.6454, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3835, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1675, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.4268, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5047, "total_progression": 18.5941, "progressive_carries": 1.0625, "shots_off_target": 0.4777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0549, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0249, "finishing_factor": 1.1744, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0249, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0203, "squad_weight_total": 1.0624, "weight_share": 0.0191, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.634, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.2253, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2253, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2071, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Martín Zubimendi": { "player_id": 966837, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 36, "height": 180, "market_value": 77000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 3.5375, "dispossessed": 0.5532, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0147, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "creation_factor": 1.2158, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363891.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { 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-0.3541 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2018 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0169 } ], "others": 0.016, "total": 0.3716, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.354064 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.201828 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.035515 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.021024 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.016856 } ], "others_margin": 0.015978 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.720966815948486, "model_output": 6.721, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.094 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0032, "total": 6.721, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.093965 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021201 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020114 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009387 } ], "others_margin": -0.003254 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0115, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2358, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.04, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goals": 0.0367, "goal_rate": 0.0367, "shots_on_target": 0.093, "total_shots": 0.3759, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 16.8494, "accurate_pass": 14.5369, "duels_won": 1.5856, "total_long_balls": 0.9033, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5147, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6438, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2125, "possession_lost": 3.7226, "dispossessed": 0.5532, "duels_lost": 2.0364, "aerial_won": 0.8372, "aerial_lost": 0.6298, "interceptions": 0.5087, "tackles_won": 0.4179, "tackles": 0.6878, "clearances": 0.3079, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0606, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5941, "total_progression": 13.6598, "progressive_carries": 0.2608, "shots_off_target": 0.2829 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0115, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0013)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2358, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goals": 0.0367, "goal_rate": 0.0367, "shots_on_target": 0.0929, "total_shots": 0.3754, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 16.8494, "accurate_pass": 14.5369, "duels_won": 1.5856, "total_long_balls": 0.9033, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5147, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6438, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2125, "possession_lost": 3.7226, "dispossessed": 0.5532, "duels_lost": 2.0364, "aerial_won": 0.8372, "aerial_lost": 0.6298, "interceptions": 0.508, "tackles_won": 0.4183, "tackles": 0.6878, "clearances": 0.3079, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6919, "fouls_drawn": 0.0605, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5941, "total_progression": 13.6598, "progressive_carries": 0.2608, "shots_off_target": 0.2829 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0013, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2212, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 18.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2241, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "expected_goals": 0.033, "goals": 0.0349, "goal_rate": 0.0349, "shots_on_target": 0.0883, "total_shots": 0.3571, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 16.0116, "accurate_pass": 13.8141, "duels_won": 1.5068, "total_long_balls": 0.8584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4891, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6001, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.214, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0583, "possession_lost": 3.5375, "dispossessed": 0.5532, "duels_lost": 1.9351, "aerial_won": 0.7956, "aerial_lost": 0.6298, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.3975, "tackles": 0.6536, "clearances": 0.2926, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6575, "fouls_drawn": 0.0575, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4154, "total_progression": 12.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.2478, "shots_off_target": 0.2688, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.92, "projection_minutes": 19.91, "minutes_scale": 0.9503, "appearance_probability": 0.728 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2241, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "expected_goals": 0.033, "goals": 0.0349, "goal_rate": 0.0349, "shots_on_target": 0.0883, "total_shots": 0.3571, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 16.0116, "accurate_pass": 13.8141, "duels_won": 1.5068, "total_long_balls": 0.8584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4891, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6001, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.214, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0583, "possession_lost": 3.5375, "dispossessed": 0.5532, "duels_lost": 1.9351, "aerial_won": 0.7956, "aerial_lost": 0.6298, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.3975, "tackles": 0.6536, "clearances": 0.2926, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6575, "fouls_drawn": 0.0575, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4154, "total_progression": 12.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.2478, "shots_off_target": 0.2688, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2241, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.033, "goal_rate": 0.0349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0883, "total_shots": 0.3571, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 16.0116, "accurate_pass": 13.8141, "duels_won": 1.5068, "total_long_balls": 0.8584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4891, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6001, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.214, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0583, "possession_lost": 3.5375, "dispossessed": 0.5532, "duels_lost": 1.9351, "aerial_won": 0.7956, "aerial_lost": 0.6298, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.3975, "tackles": 0.6536, "clearances": 0.2926, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6575, "fouls_drawn": 0.0575, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4154, "total_progression": 12.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.2478, "shots_off_target": 0.2688, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3911, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 0.9100, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2241, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0883, "total_shots": 0.3571, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 16.0116, "accurate_pass": 13.8141, "duels_won": 1.5068, "total_long_balls": 0.8584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4891, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6001, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.214, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0583, "possession_lost": 3.5375, "dispossessed": 0.5532, "duels_lost": 1.9351, "aerial_won": 0.7956, "aerial_lost": 0.6298, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.3975, "tackles": 0.6536, "clearances": 0.2926, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6575, "fouls_drawn": 0.0575, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4154, "total_progression": 12.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.2478, "shots_off_target": 0.2688, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "creation_factor": 1.2158 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.301, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3911, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1438, "team_expected_assists": 1.0408, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 0.91, "opponent_lambda": 1.554, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.728 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.033, "after": 0.0225 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0223, "after": 0.0148 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2241, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0883, "total_shots": 0.3571, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 16.0116, "accurate_pass": 13.8141, "duels_won": 1.5068, "total_long_balls": 0.8584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4891, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6001, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.214, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0583, "possession_lost": 3.5375, "dispossessed": 0.5532, "duels_lost": 1.9351, "aerial_won": 0.7956, "aerial_lost": 0.6298, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.3975, "tackles": 0.6536, "clearances": 0.2926, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6575, "fouls_drawn": 0.0575, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4154, "total_progression": 12.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.2478, "shots_off_target": 0.2688, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "creation_factor": 1.2158, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 54, "fifa_rank": 99.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2241, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0883, "total_shots": 0.3571, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 16.0116, "accurate_pass": 13.8141, "duels_won": 1.5068, "total_long_balls": 0.8584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4891, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6001, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.214, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0583, "possession_lost": 3.5375, "dispossessed": 0.5532, "duels_lost": 1.9351, "aerial_won": 0.7956, "aerial_lost": 0.6298, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.3975, "tackles": 0.6536, "clearances": 0.2926, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6575, "fouls_drawn": 0.0575, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4154, "total_progression": 12.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.2478, "shots_off_target": 0.2688, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "creation_factor": 1.2158, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0349, "scorer_weight": 0.023, "squad_weight_total": 1.3395, "weight_share": 0.0172, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "appearance_weight": 0.728, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.2714, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2714, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2502 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2241, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0883, "total_shots": 0.3571, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 16.0116, "accurate_pass": 13.8141, "duels_won": 1.5068, "total_long_balls": 0.8584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4891, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1733, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6001, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.214, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0583, "possession_lost": 3.5375, "dispossessed": 0.5532, "duels_lost": 1.9351, "aerial_won": 0.7956, "aerial_lost": 0.6298, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.3975, "tackles": 0.6536, "clearances": 0.2926, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6575, "fouls_drawn": 0.0575, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4154, "total_progression": 12.9806, "progressive_carries": 0.2478, "shots_off_target": 0.2688, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0147, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "creation_factor": 1.2158, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0147, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "provider_weight": 0.018, "squad_weight_total": 1.0624, "weight_share": 0.0169, "creation_factor": 1.2158, "appearance_weight": 0.728, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.2253, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2253, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2071, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] }, "Viktor Gyökeres": { "player_id": 804508, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 187, "market_value": 61000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0254, 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"name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.058 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0286, "total": 6.6226, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057959 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029019 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011966 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011597 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011546 } ], "others_margin": -0.028692 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.855)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0831, "goals": 0.105, "goal_rate": 0.105, "shots_on_target": 0.207, "total_shots": 0.617, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "key_pass": 0.3621, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 4.8881, "accurate_pass": 3.7003, "duels_won": 0.8846, "total_long_balls": 0.1437, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1437, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9708, "crosses_total": 0.1499, "crosses_accurate": 0.0883, "touches": 9.3148, "possession_lost": 3.279, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.344, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.5538, "won_contest": 0.0883, "ball_recovery": 1.0564, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 0.9645, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1437, "tackles": 0.2188, "clearances": 0.1382, "blocks": 0.1098, "big_chances_created": 0.3662, "big_chances_missed": 0.0954, "xgot": 0.0917, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0072, "total_progression": 15.9546, "progressive_carries": 0.9117, "shots_off_target": 0.4099 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 61000000, "quality_factor": 0.8548, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goals": 0.1224, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.6454, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3835, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1675, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.4268, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.1069, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5047, "total_progression": 18.5941, "progressive_carries": 1.0625, "shots_off_target": 0.4777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.94, "projection_minutes": 23.12, "minutes_scale": 1.1654, "appearance_probability": 0.634 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goals": 0.1224, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.6454, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3835, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1675, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.4268, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.1069, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5047, "total_progression": 18.5941, "progressive_carries": 1.0625, "shots_off_target": 0.4777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.6454, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3835, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1675, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.4268, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.1069, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5047, "total_progression": 18.5941, "progressive_carries": 1.0625, "shots_off_target": 0.4777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3911, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 0.9100, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.6454, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3835, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1675, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.4268, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5047, "total_progression": 18.5941, "progressive_carries": 1.0625, "shots_off_target": 0.4777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1744, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.301, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3911, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1438, "team_expected_assists": 1.0408, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 0.91, "opponent_lambda": 1.554, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.634 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0968, "after": 0.0574 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0441, "after": 0.0254 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.6454, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3835, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1675, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.4268, "big_chances_missed": 0.1112, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5047, "total_progression": 18.5941, "progressive_carries": 1.0625, "shots_off_target": 0.4777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.634, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1744, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 116, "fifa_rank": 96.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 0.6454, "won_contest": 0.1029, "ball_recovery": 1.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.0333, "fouls": 1.1241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3835, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1675, "tackles": 0.255, "clearances": 0.1611, "blocks": 0.128, 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"eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.2714, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2714, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2502 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2412, "total_shots": 0.7191, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 0.422, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 5.6968, "accurate_pass": 4.3125, "duels_won": 1.0309, "total_long_balls": 0.1675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1675, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4623, "crosses_total": 0.1747, "crosses_accurate": 0.1029, "touches": 10.8558, "possession_lost": 3.8215, "dispossessed": 0.3461, "duels_lost": 2.7318, "aerial_lost": 0.7205, "total_contest": 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"margin": -0.081001 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044862 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.039297 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019899 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007596 } ], "others_margin": -0.028195 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0376, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4754, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "assists": 0.0515, "assist_rate": 0.0515, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goals": 0.0557, "goal_rate": 0.0557, "shots_on_target": 0.2348, "total_shots": 0.5668, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 16.42, "total_pass": 5.5112, "accurate_pass": 5.1103, "duels_won": 1.7766, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7105, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7105, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3997, "crosses_total": 1.0177, "crosses_accurate": 0.3354, "touches": 12.9185, "possession_lost": 3.6833, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 2.8019, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.1655, "tackles_won": 0.1728, "tackles": 0.1728, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.288, "won_contest": 0.8856, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.3698, "fouls_drawn": 0.7181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.119, "ball_carries": 5.4853, "total_progression": 27.4606, "progressive_carries": 0.9938, "shots_off_target": 0.332 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0376, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.4 to 23.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1705, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.53, "projection_minutes": 16.42, "minutes_scale": 1.433, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1705, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1705, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3911, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 0.9100, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0909, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.301, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3911, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1438, "team_expected_assists": 1.0408, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 0.91, "opponent_lambda": 1.554, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0599, "after": 0.0319 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0576, "after": 0.0299 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0909, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1510, "fifa_rank": 945.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0909, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.031, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "scorer_weight": 0.0377, "squad_weight_total": 1.3395, "weight_share": 0.0281, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.2714, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2714, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2502 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0909, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.031, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0291, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0291, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "provider_weight": 0.0344, "squad_weight_total": 1.0624, "weight_share": 0.0324, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.2253, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2253, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2071, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] }, "William Saliba": { "player_id": 941168, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 193, "market_value": 94000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15, 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"importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1006 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0487 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0225 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 6.7993, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.100581 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.048711 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.027348 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.022546 } ], "others_margin": -0.028183 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0161, quality 0.891)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3341, "tackles": 0.4873, "tackles_won": 0.2741, "clearances": 1.792, "aerial_won": 0.8204, "total_shots": 0.162, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 27.0, "total_pass": 66.7557, "accurate_pass": 62.1709, "duels_won": 4.4072, "total_long_balls": 3.9748, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1846, "total_own_half_passes": 40.864, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0198, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8918, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.1512, "crosses_total": 0.1992, "crosses_accurate": 0.0688, "touches": 78.4171, "possession_lost": 5.7857, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 3.5239, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.3346, "won_contest": 0.2751, "ball_recovery": 3.5097, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.8666, "fouls_drawn": 0.4166, "blocks": 0.3294, "goals": 0.0492, "goal_rate": 0.0492, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.0492, "big_chances_created": 0.0698, "xgot": 0.0425, "ball_carries": 17.3429, "total_progression": 60.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.4619, "key_pass": 0.4889, "shots_off_target": 0.1128 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 94000000, "quality_factor": 0.891, "boost_factor": 1.0161, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.0 to 15.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.38)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goals": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.0642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.37, "projection_minutes": 27.0, "minutes_scale": 0.5692, "appearance_probability": 0.38 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goals": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.0642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goal_rate": 0.028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.0642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3911, xG scale 0.9352, xA scale 0.9100, team xA 1.04 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goal_rate": 0.028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0052, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.0642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2056, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.301, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3911, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1438, "team_expected_assists": 1.0408, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9352, "xa_scale": 0.91, "opponent_lambda": 1.554, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.38 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0147, "after": 0.0052 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0425, "after": 0.0147 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goal_rate": 0.028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0052, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.0642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2056, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 232, "fifa_rank": 28.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goal_rate": 0.028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0052, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.0642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0052, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2056, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0052, "goal_rate": 0.028, "scorer_weight": 0.0063, "squad_weight_total": 1.3395, "weight_share": 0.0047, "finishing_factor": 1.2056, "appearance_weight": 0.38, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kai Havertz", "weight": 0.2714, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2714, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2502 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1902, "tackles": 0.2774, "tackles_won": 0.156, "clearances": 1.02, "aerial_won": 0.467, "total_shots": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7993, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goal_rate": 0.028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0052, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.0642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.689, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0052, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "finishing_factor": 1.2056, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0118, "squad_weight_total": 1.0624, "weight_share": 0.0111, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.38, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.2253, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2253, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2071, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kai Havertz" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.3, "expected_assists": 1.04, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 555, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 7.01, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Florian Wirtz", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 81000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.883, "defenders": [ "Myles Lewis-Skelly" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.869, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.464, "xg_contribution": 0.1615, "xg_multiplier": 0.9758, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Myles Lewis-Skelly", "role": "RB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.536 } ], "duel_analysis": "Florian Wirtz (LW) is evenly matched against Myles Lewis-Skelly in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.161 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Alexander Isak", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 93000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.891, "defenders": [ "Ben White", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.801, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.242, "xg_contribution": 0.4763, "xg_multiplier": 1.0612, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ben White", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758 }, { "player": "Gabriel Magalhães", "role": "CB", "market_value": 70000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexander Isak (ST) is slightly favored against Ben White and Gabriel Magalhães in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€93M vs €51M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.476 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Bradley Barcola", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Ben White", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.801, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.198, "xg_contribution": 0.1704, "xg_multiplier": 0.9977, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ben White", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.802 }, { "player": "Gabriel Magalhães", "role": "CB", "market_value": 70000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.802 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bradley Barcola (ST) is evenly matched against Ben White and Gabriel Magalhães in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €51M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.170 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Cody Gakpo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 72000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.873, "defenders": [ "Ben White", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.801, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "xg_contribution": 0.2858, "xg_multiplier": 1.0499, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ben White", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 }, { "player": "Gabriel Magalhães", "role": "CB", "market_value": 70000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cody Gakpo (ST) is evenly matched against Ben White and Gabriel Magalhães in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€72M vs €51M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.286 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Gravenberch", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 81000000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.883, "defenders": [ "Declan Rice" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.897, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "xg_contribution": 0.0686, "xg_multiplier": 1.007, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Declan Rice", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 114000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Gravenberch (CDM) is evenly matched against Declan Rice in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€81M vs €114M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Alexis Mac Allister", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Declan Rice" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.897, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "xg_contribution": 0.1268, "xg_multiplier": 0.9232, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Declan Rice", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 114000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexis Mac Allister (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Declan Rice in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €114M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.127 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Martin Ødegaard", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 88000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.888, "defenders": [ "Miloš Kerkez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.498, "xg_contribution": 0.2141, "xg_multiplier": 1.0272, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Miloš Kerkez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martin Ødegaard (LW) is evenly matched against Miloš Kerkez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€88M vs €36M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.214 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Eberechi Eze", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Ryan Gravenberch", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.881, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.209, "xg_contribution": 0.1089, "xg_multiplier": 0.9538, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Gravenberch", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 81000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791 }, { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eberechi Eze (CAM) is evenly matched against Ryan Gravenberch and Alexis Mac Allister in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €79M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Kai Havertz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Ronald Araújo", "Jérémy Jacquet" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.78, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.219, "xg_contribution": 0.3371, "xg_multiplier": 1.0279, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ronald Araújo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.781 }, { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.781 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kai Havertz (ST) is evenly matched against Ronald Araújo and Jérémy Jacquet in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.337 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Noni Madueke", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Ronald Araújo", "Jérémy Jacquet" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.78, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.124, "xg_multiplier": 0.9427, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ronald Araújo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noni Madueke (ST) is evenly matched against Ronald Araújo and Jérémy Jacquet in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.124 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Declan Rice", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 114000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.883, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "xg_contribution": 0.0627, "xg_multiplier": 0.993, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Gravenberch", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 81000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.585 } ], "duel_analysis": "Declan Rice (CDM) is evenly matched against Ryan Gravenberch in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€114M vs €81M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bruno Guimarães", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.883, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.387, "xg_contribution": 0.0769, "xg_multiplier": 0.9515, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Gravenberch", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 81000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.613 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bruno Guimarães (CDM) is evenly matched against Ryan Gravenberch in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.882, "away_midfield_power": 0.906, "home_creative_power": 0.838, "away_creative_power": 0.882, "home_defensive_power": 0.749, "away_defensive_power": 0.739, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.493, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ryan Gravenberch", "Alexis Mac Allister", "Florian Wirtz" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Declan Rice", "Bruno Guimarães", "Martin Ødegaard", "Eberechi Eze" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.8, "home_throughball_threat": 3.1, "away_throughball_threat": 3.2, "key_personal_duel": "Ryan Gravenberch vs Declan Rice", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.003, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.007 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.554, "away_lambda": 1.301, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Florian Wirtz": { "opponents": [ "Myles Lewis-Skelly", "Bruno Guimarães" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alexander Isak": { "opponents": [ "Ben White", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bradley Barcola": { "opponents": [ "Ben White", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Cody Gakpo": { "opponents": [ "Ben White", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ryan Gravenberch": { "opponents": [ "Declan Rice", "Eberechi Eze", "Bruno Guimarães", "Martin Ødegaard" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alexis Mac Allister": { "opponents": [ "Declan Rice", "Eberechi Eze" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miloš Kerkez": { "opponents": [ "Martin Ødegaard" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ronald Araújo": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz", "Noni Madueke" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jérémy Jacquet": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz", "Noni Madueke" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alisson": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz", "Noni Madueke" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Virgil van Dijk": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Myles Lewis-Skelly": { "opponents": [ "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ben White": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak", "Bradley Barcola", "Cody Gakpo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Magalhães": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak", "Bradley Barcola", "Cody Gakpo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Declan Rice": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Gravenberch", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martin Ødegaard": { "opponents": [ "Miloš Kerkez", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Eberechi Eze": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Gravenberch", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kai Havertz": { "opponents": [ "Ronald Araújo", "Jérémy Jacquet" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Noni Madueke": { "opponents": [ "Ronald Araújo", "Jérémy Jacquet" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bruno Guimarães": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Gravenberch", "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Raya": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola", "Alexander Isak" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ezri Konsa": { "opponents": [ "Cody Gakpo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Ryan Gravenberch vs Declan Rice will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.29, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8871, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9459, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8712, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9082, "home_midfield_factor": 1.003, "away_midfield_factor": 1.007, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.8204, "away_avg_quality": 0.8493, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0289, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.0381, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.0254, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.1095, "elite_count_gap": -2, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0503, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.2894, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.3296 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.003, "result": 1.3335 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3335 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.7326 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9034, "result": 1.5652 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8871, "result": 1.3884 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8712, "result": 1.2096 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.3896 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3896, "result": 1.3896, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0503, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.3896, "result": 1.3896 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3896 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.61 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.7586, "result": 1.8305 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.8305, "result": 1.831, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.831 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 1.831, "result": 1.844, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.844 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.844 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.844, "result": 1.844, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.554 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9237, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0553 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.007, "result": 1.0627 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0627 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0627 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9882, "result": 1.0501 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9459, "result": 0.9933 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9082, "result": 0.9022 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.0822 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0822, "result": 1.0822, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0503, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.0822, "result": 1.0822 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0822 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1501, "result": 1.2321 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.7586, "result": 1.5252 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5252, "result": 1.525, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.525 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.525, "result": 1.5142, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.514 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.514 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.514, "result": 1.514, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.301 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1501, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Liverpool FC", "away_squad": "Arsenal", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.759, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.759, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.844, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.514, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.8305, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.5252, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.554, "final_away_lambda": 1.301 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9034, "attack_index": 1.002, "defense_concede_index": 0.783, "form_multiplier": 0.976, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.37, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.07, "team_ppg": 1.65, "opponent_ppg": 2.08 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9882, "attack_index": 1.075, "defense_concede_index": 0.892, "form_multiplier": 1.024, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.47, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.22, "team_ppg": 2.08, "opponent_ppg": 1.65 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Liverpool vs Arsenal. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.831, Away 1.525). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.554, Away 1.301 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Liverpool FC", "away_squad": "Arsenal", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.759, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.759, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.554, "away_lambda": 1.301, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.831, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.525 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-01T14:30:55Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }