{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Racing Club", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261101", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-2", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0954, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0294, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0954, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1434, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0954 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0882 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.0882 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0815 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0686 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0251, "0-1": 0.0686, "0-2": 0.0954, "0-3": 0.0882, "0-4": 0.0611, "0-5": 0.0339, "0-6": 0.0157, "0-7": 0.0062, "0-8": 0.0021, "0-9": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.0227, "1-1": 0.0639, "1-2": 0.0882, "1-3": 0.0815, "1-4": 0.0565, "1-5": 0.0313, "1-6": 0.0145, "1-7": 0.0057, "1-8": 0.002, "1-9": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0106, "2-1": 0.0294, "2-2": 0.0407, "2-3": 0.0376, "2-4": 0.0261, "2-5": 0.0145, "2-6": 0.0067, "2-7": 0.0026, "2-8": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.0033, "3-1": 0.0091, "3-2": 0.0125, "3-3": 0.0116, "3-4": 0.008, "3-5": 0.0045, "3-6": 0.0021, "3-7": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0008, "4-1": 0.0021, "4-2": 0.0029, "4-3": 0.0027, "4-4": 0.0019, "4-5": 0.001, "5-2": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.0982, "draw": 0.1434, "away_win": 0.7584 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7137, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2863, "btts_yes": 0.5656, "btts_no": 0.4344, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0626, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3969 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.78, "MCR": 6.88, "ATR": 6.97, "GK": 6.82 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.82, "MCR": 7.06, "ATR": 7.48, "GK": 7.0 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Racing Club vs Real Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Racing Club 0W-1D-9L vs Real Madrid over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kylian Mbappé (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~55% possession expected (Matteo Prati vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.70, Away: 1.58. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.81, "home_lambda": 0.924, "away_lambda": 2.772, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 9, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 0.95, "away_multiplier": 1.05 }, "modal_scoreline": "0-2", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.0954, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.0982, "draw": 0.1434, "away_win": 0.7584 }, "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7584, "fair_spread": -1.848, "fair_total": 3.696, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Racing Club", "estimate": 0.924, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 2.772, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7137, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5656, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Racing Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0626, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3969, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Yassir Zabiri (Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.3447, "probability": 0.2916, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 1.2898, "probability": 0.7247, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Iñigo Vicente (Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.2412, "probability": 0.2143, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Arda Güler (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.3565, "probability": 0.2999, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.696, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 963, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.8, "possession_home_pct": 45.2, "possession_away_pct": 54.8, "notes": "Real Madrid projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7584, "script": "Real Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -1.85 goals and fair total 3.70.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Racing Club must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Madrid chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Alvaro Mantilla, Jeanuël Belocian in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Real Madrid projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Racing Club: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Andrés Martín, André Almeida, Giorgi Guliashvili.", "Real Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé (2); bench watchlist: Rodrygo, Eduardo Camavinga.", "Assist usage should flow through Yan Diomande; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.85 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Racing Club is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Madrid.", "Racing Club wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Racing Club": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Julen Agirrezabala": { "player_id": 1014412, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 187, "market_value": 6500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1182, "rating": 6.8178, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 35, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.8206, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 5.4226, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.3158, "shots_faced": 26.3, "expected_saves": 6.43, "high_pressure_saves": 2.22, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Arda Güler", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421083.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": -0.5169 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421078.0, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 2.5191 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421064.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "goals_prevented": -0.6542 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416344.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -1.331 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -2.5941 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 7, "goals_prevented": 1.1052 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416321.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 20, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": -0.8677 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416304.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.1012 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "goals_prevented": -0.0081 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.5844 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 932, "combined_rank_score": 433.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 434.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9111, "sofascore_appearances": 18.0, "fifa_rank": 433.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8178, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Julen Agirrezabala", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Karim Adeyemi", "ranking": 927 }, { "player_name": "Marlon Maranhão", "ranking": 928 }, { "player_name": "Islom Kenzhaboev", "ranking": 929 }, { "player_name": "Isco", "ranking": 930 }, { "player_name": "Karim Benzema", "ranking": 931 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Koen Casteels", "ranking": 933 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Pereira", "ranking": 934 }, { "player_name": "David Soria", "ranking": 935 }, { "player_name": "Jasurbek Jaloliddinov", "ranking": 936 }, { "player_name": "Kalidou Koulibaly", "ranking": 937 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 28, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9989, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Racing Sant", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 28 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Racing Sant, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7116, "goals_prevented": -0.1183, "rating": 6.8178, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 22.4446, "accurate_pass": 17.0203, "total_long_balls": 7.6216, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1995, "touches": 34.9267, "clearances": 1.2788, "ball_recovery": 8.1841, "high_claims": 1.1644, "punches": 0.8215, "aerial_won": 0.2713, "sweeper_actions": 1.5903, "sweeper_accurate": 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"opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 15.886, "accurateLongBalls": 2.1995, "possessionLostCtrl": 5.4286, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.066, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.7862, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 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"contribution": 0.0185 } ], "others": -0.1847, "total": 6.8178, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.028548 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.024162 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.021556 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.020398 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018539 } ], "others_margin": -0.184585 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9928, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0384, "tackles": 2.2271, "tackles_won": 1.3185, "clearances": 3.0168, "aerial_won": 1.1259, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7697, "minutes": 87.28, "total_pass": 42.2784, "accurate_pass": 31.2297, "duels_won": 4.1911, "total_long_balls": 3.202, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6121, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6956, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7816, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4482, "crosses_total": 1.3618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.3523, "possession_lost": 16.2988, "dispossessed": 0.2261, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.8709, "total_contest": 0.5773, "won_contest": 0.119, "ball_recovery": 3.2449, "challenges_lost": 0.6997, "fouls": 1.2569, "fouls_drawn": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.2602, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1938, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "expected_goals": 0.0394, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.456, "total_progression": 41.3541, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3673 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1200000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9928, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0384, "tackles": 2.2271, "tackles_won": 1.3185, "clearances": 3.0168, "aerial_won": 1.1259, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7697, "minutes": 87.28, "total_pass": 42.2784, "accurate_pass": 31.2297, "duels_won": 4.1911, "total_long_balls": 3.202, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6121, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6956, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7816, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4482, "crosses_total": 1.3618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.3523, "possession_lost": 16.2988, "dispossessed": 0.2261, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.8709, "total_contest": 0.5773, "won_contest": 0.119, "ball_recovery": 3.2449, "challenges_lost": 0.6997, "fouls": 1.2569, "fouls_drawn": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.2602, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1938, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "expected_goals": 0.0394, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.456, "total_progression": 41.3541, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3673 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0384, "tackles": 2.2271, "tackles_won": 1.3185, "clearances": 3.0168, "aerial_won": 1.1259, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7697, "minutes": 87.28, "total_pass": 42.2784, "accurate_pass": 31.2297, "duels_won": 4.1911, "total_long_balls": 3.202, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6121, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6956, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7816, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4482, "crosses_total": 1.3618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.3523, "possession_lost": 16.2988, "dispossessed": 0.2261, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.8709, "total_contest": 0.5773, "won_contest": 0.119, "ball_recovery": 3.2449, "challenges_lost": 0.6997, "fouls": 1.2569, "fouls_drawn": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.2602, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1938, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "expected_goals": 0.0394, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.456, "total_progression": 41.3541, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3673, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.645, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0384, "tackles": 2.2271, "tackles_won": 1.3185, "clearances": 3.0168, "aerial_won": 1.1259, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7697, "minutes": 87.28, "total_pass": 42.2784, "accurate_pass": 31.2297, "duels_won": 4.1911, "total_long_balls": 3.202, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6121, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6956, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7816, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4482, "crosses_total": 1.3618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.3523, "possession_lost": 16.2988, "dispossessed": 0.2261, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.8709, "total_contest": 0.5773, "won_contest": 0.119, "ball_recovery": 3.2449, "challenges_lost": 0.6997, "fouls": 1.2569, "fouls_drawn": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.2602, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0394, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.456, "total_progression": 41.3541, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3673, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.645, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9911, xG scale 0.9323, xA scale 0.8699, team xA 0.74 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0384, "tackles": 2.2271, "tackles_won": 1.3185, "clearances": 3.0168, "aerial_won": 1.1259, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7697, "minutes": 87.28, "total_pass": 42.2784, "accurate_pass": 31.2297, "duels_won": 4.1911, "total_long_balls": 3.202, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6121, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6956, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7816, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4482, "crosses_total": 1.3618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.3523, "possession_lost": 16.2988, "dispossessed": 0.2261, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.8709, "total_contest": 0.5773, "won_contest": 0.119, "ball_recovery": 3.2449, "challenges_lost": 0.6997, "fouls": 1.2569, "fouls_drawn": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.2602, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.456, "total_progression": 41.3541, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3673, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.645, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9911, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8498, "team_expected_assists": 0.7392, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9323, "xa_scale": 0.8699, "opponent_lambda": 2.772, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2867 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.1398 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1312 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1208 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0731 } ], "others": -0.1539, "total": 0.5834, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.286747 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.139828 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131181 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.120766 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.073124 } ], "others_margin": -0.15378 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.666243553161621, "model_output": 6.6662, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0794 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0789 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0171 } ], "others": -0.0594, "total": 6.6662, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079409 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.078928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034058 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024727 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.017078 } ], "others_margin": -0.059233 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9934, quality 0.461)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1432, "expected_assists": 0.0846, "assists": 0.0937, "assist_rate": 0.0937, "expected_goals": 0.0525, "goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.0664, "shots_on_target": 0.1527, "total_shots": 0.5796, "rating": 6.6662, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 12.022, "accurate_pass": 9.1813, "duels_won": 1.2727, "total_long_balls": 0.3922, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3749, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.426, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7553, "crosses_total": 2.5189, "crosses_accurate": 0.7792, "touches": 19.3091, "possession_lost": 5.4278, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 2.1925, "aerial_won": 0.358, "aerial_lost": 0.6199, "interceptions": 0.5567, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3922, "clearances": 0.1645, 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0.0392 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.358, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5796, "after": 0.4328 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4269, "after": 0.3188 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1527, "after": 0.114 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0664, "after": 0.0496 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0525, "after": 0.0392 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1432, "expected_assists": 0.0846, "assist_rate": 0.0937, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0496, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.114, "total_shots": 0.4328, "rating": 6.6662, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 12.022, "accurate_pass": 9.1813, "duels_won": 1.2727, "total_long_balls": 0.3922, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, 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0.0496, "scorer_weight": 0.0408, "squad_weight_total": 1.0403, "weight_share": 0.0392, "finishing_factor": 1.1166, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1432, "expected_assists": 0.0736, "assist_rate": 0.0937, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0365, "goal_rate": 0.0496, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.114, "total_shots": 0.4328, "rating": 6.6662, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 12.022, "accurate_pass": 9.1813, "duels_won": 1.2727, "total_long_balls": 0.3922, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3749, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.426, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7553, "crosses_total": 2.5189, "crosses_accurate": 0.7792, "touches": 19.3091, "possession_lost": 5.4278, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 2.1925, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6199, 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.070126 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033449 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02163 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.017647 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.011906 } ], "others_margin": -0.037153 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9946, quality 0.462)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5062, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.0566, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goals": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "shots_on_target": 0.1254, "total_shots": 0.5019, "rating": 6.8726, "minutes": 81.08, "total_pass": 43.3469, "accurate_pass": 37.6288, "duels_won": 4.2615, "total_long_balls": 2.0129, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3202, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5469, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.082, "crosses_total": 0.3645, "crosses_accurate": 0.2395, "touches": 56.2265, "possession_lost": 7.5345, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0678, "aerial_won": 0.3767, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "interceptions": 0.5238, "tackles_won": 1.6075, "tackles": 2.1091, "clearances": 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0.293497 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.15705 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.109802 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.082163 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.080057 } ], "others_margin": -0.159839 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7833453416824341, "model_output": 0.7833, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2021 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0613 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0608 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.045 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0404 } ], "others": -0.0256, "total": 0.7833, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.256311 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.066323 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.065785 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.051662 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.048789 } ], "others_margin": -0.031994 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7089762687683105, "model_output": 6.709, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0495 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0384 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0282, "total": 6.709, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049505 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038408 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017881 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015166 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014082 } ], "others_margin": -0.028324 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9998, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1432, "goals": 0.1969, "goal_rate": 0.1969, "shots_on_target": 0.617, "total_shots": 1.7763, "expected_assists": 0.0669, "key_pass": 0.7832, "rating": 6.709, "minutes": 73.77, "total_pass": 12.9251, "accurate_pass": 11.3899, "duels_won": 2.3802, "total_long_balls": 0.859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5895, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1205, "crosses_total": 1.1399, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.8762, "possession_lost": 8.0426, "dispossessed": 1.5818, "duels_lost": 5.1071, "aerial_lost": 0.8342, "total_contest": 1.8837, "won_contest": 0.8186, "ball_recovery": 2.3966, "challenges_lost": 1.1542, "fouls": 0.4718, "fouls_drawn": 1.0313, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3062, "tackles_won": 0.3355, "tackles": 0.5303, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1948, "xgot": 0.1786, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1371, "total_progression": 12.3248, "progressive_carries": 1.0869, "shots_off_target": 1.1593 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8199999, "quality_factor": 0.5011, "boost_factor": 0.9998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0045)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1432, "goals": 0.2021, "goal_rate": 0.2021, "shots_on_target": 0.6204, "total_shots": 1.7867, "expected_assists": 0.0669, "key_pass": 0.7832, "rating": 6.709, "minutes": 73.77, "total_pass": 12.9251, "accurate_pass": 11.3899, "duels_won": 2.3802, "total_long_balls": 0.859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5895, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1205, "crosses_total": 1.1348, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.8762, "possession_lost": 8.0426, "dispossessed": 1.5818, "duels_lost": 5.1071, "aerial_lost": 0.8342, "total_contest": 1.8837, "won_contest": 0.8186, "ball_recovery": 2.3966, "challenges_lost": 1.1542, "fouls": 0.4881, "fouls_drawn": 1.0512, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3048, "tackles_won": 0.334, "tackles": 0.5303, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1948, "xgot": 0.1786, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1371, "total_progression": 12.3248, "progressive_carries": 1.0869, "shots_off_target": 1.1593 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0045, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8197, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0313, "after": 1.0512 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4718, "after": 0.4881 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7763, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0792, "goals": 0.11, "goal_rate": 0.11, "shots_on_target": 0.4239, "total_shots": 1.0533, "expected_assists": 0.2773, "key_pass": 2.7891, "rating": 7.1843, "minutes": 86.1, "total_pass": 67.1744, "accurate_pass": 51.5382, "duels_won": 5.3218, "total_long_balls": 6.5976, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2859, "total_opp_half_passes": 51.7597, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.6721, "crosses_total": 5.0983, "crosses_accurate": 1.0016, "touches": 87.9215, "possession_lost": 25.1128, "dispossessed": 1.1139, "duels_lost": 4.9096, "aerial_lost": 0.0625, "total_contest": 3.4164, "won_contest": 1.6042, "ball_recovery": 4.5787, "challenges_lost": 1.1997, "fouls": 0.7837, "fouls_drawn": 2.2458, "assists": 0.3159, "assist_rate": 0.3159, "interceptions": 0.6638, 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"totalShots", "before": 1.0362, "after": 0.7229 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6294, "after": 0.4391 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4068, "after": 0.2838 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1056, "after": 0.0737 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0992, "after": 0.0692 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0792, "after": 0.0552 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0552, "goal_rate": 0.0737, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2838, "total_shots": 0.7229, "expected_assists": 0.2773, "key_pass": 2.7891, "rating": 7.1843, "minutes": 86.1, "total_pass": 67.1744, "accurate_pass": 51.5382, "duels_won": 5.3218, "total_long_balls": 6.5976, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2859, "total_opp_half_passes": 51.7597, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.6721, 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0.5396, "tackles": 0.7859, "clearances": 0.4774, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.224, "xgot": 0.7432, "offsides": 0.2014, "ball_carries": 5.8169, "total_progression": 17.1308, "progressive_carries": 0.6643, "shots_off_target": 1.4668 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 22000000, "quality_factor": 0.6503, "boost_factor": 1.0145, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0188)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4441, "goals": 0.5294, "goal_rate": 0.5294, "shots_on_target": 1.2156, "total_shots": 2.6814, "expected_assists": 0.0526, "key_pass": 0.7203, "rating": 6.8332, "minutes": 82.88, "total_pass": 9.3925, "accurate_pass": 7.3648, "duels_won": 2.2371, "total_long_balls": 0.2014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2014, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1541, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4271, "crosses_total": 0.0975, 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"name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0442 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0438 } ], "others": -0.1791, "total": 0.1965, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.350292 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.190054 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.06925 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.044167 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043804 } ], "others_margin": -0.179221 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9585041999816895, "model_output": 6.9585, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1323 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1295 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0571 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0201 } ], "others": 0.0052, "total": 6.9585, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.132274 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.129502 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.057089 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.021491 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.020071 } ], "others_margin": 0.00522 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0221, quality 0.623)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4821, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "assists": 0.0547, "assist_rate": 0.0547, "expected_goals": 0.0219, "goals": 0.0429, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "shots_on_target": 0.0933, "total_shots": 0.2008, "rating": 6.9585, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 59.9424, "accurate_pass": 55.1169, "duels_won": 6.5646, "total_long_balls": 1.3688, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3688, "total_own_half_passes": 28.436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1624, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.5063, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.9546, "crosses_total": 0.3377, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.651, "possession_lost": 12.0904, "dispossessed": 1.4194, "duels_lost": 8.8343, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.9846, "interceptions": 0.5741, "tackles_won": 1.0817, "tackles": 2.4922, "clearances": 0.6844, "total_contest": 1.8078, "won_contest": 0.735, "challenges_lost": 1.3002, "fouls": 3.4547, "fouls_drawn": 3.3375, "blocks": 0.3973, "big_chances_created": 0.2871, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.7591, "total_progression": 45.6318, "progressive_carries": 0.5741, "shots_off_target": 0.1075 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19200000, "quality_factor": 0.6231, "boost_factor": 1.0221, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0813)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4821, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "assists": 0.0503, "assist_rate": 0.0503, "expected_goals": 0.0219, "goals": 0.0394, "goal_rate": 0.0394, "shots_on_target": 0.0857, "total_shots": 0.196, "rating": 6.9585, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 59.9424, "accurate_pass": 55.1169, "duels_won": 6.5646, "total_long_balls": 1.3688, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3688, "total_own_half_passes": 28.436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1624, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.5063, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.9546, "crosses_total": 0.316, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.651, "possession_lost": 12.0904, "dispossessed": 1.4194, "duels_lost": 8.8343, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.9846, "interceptions": 0.5389, "tackles_won": 1.011, "tackles": 2.4922, "clearances": 0.6844, "total_contest": 1.8078, "won_contest": 0.735, "challenges_lost": 1.3002, "fouls": 3.2312, "fouls_drawn": 3.1178, "blocks": 0.3973, "big_chances_created": 0.2871, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21.7591, "total_progression": 45.6318, "progressive_carries": 0.5741, "shots_off_target": 0.1075 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0813, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2111, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Racing Sant" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 3.4547, "after": 3.2312 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0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0065 } ], "others": 0.0023, "total": 0.1695, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.430999 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.243938 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.075435 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.068249 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.039673 } ], "others_margin": 0.013482 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3540904223918915, "model_output": 0.3541, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3517 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2348 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0273 } ], "others": -0.0156, "total": 0.3541, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.351745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.234754 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.031309 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.029942 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.027305 } ], "others_margin": -0.015673 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.760696887969971, "model_output": 6.7607, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1107 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0229 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.007 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": 6.7607, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.110743 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.022946 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021765 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010788 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.007013 } ], "others_margin": -0.004947 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9987, quality 0.477)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5746, "expected_assists": 0.0451, "assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goals": 0.0405, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "shots_on_target": 0.1693, "total_shots": 0.3537, "rating": 6.7607, "minutes": 18.13, "total_pass": 13.6729, "accurate_pass": 11.6994, "duels_won": 1.7559, "total_long_balls": 0.8423, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5634, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8232, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2496, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8497, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4498, "crosses_total": 1.1841, "crosses_accurate": 0.2572, "touches": 19.5379, "possession_lost": 4.119, "dispossessed": 0.3017, "duels_lost": 0.9768, "aerial_won": 0.1195, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3412, "tackles_won": 0.3851, "tackles": 0.8136, "clearances": 0.334, "total_contest": 0.8122, "won_contest": 0.4951, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3579, "fouls_drawn": 0.3277, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0535, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0198, "ball_carries": 6.8712, "total_progression": 29.4168, "progressive_carries": 0.6578, "shots_off_target": 0.1844 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6200000, "quality_factor": 0.4769, "boost_factor": 0.9987, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.1 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7013, "expected_assists": 0.055, "assists": 0.0609, "assist_rate": 0.0609, "expected_goals": 0.0406, "goals": 0.0494, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "shots_on_target": 0.2066, "total_shots": 0.4317, "rating": 6.7607, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 16.6884, "accurate_pass": 14.2796, "duels_won": 2.1432, "total_long_balls": 1.0281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6877, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0928, "crosses_total": 1.4452, "crosses_accurate": 0.3139, "touches": 23.8469, "possession_lost": 5.0274, "dispossessed": 0.3017, "duels_lost": 1.1922, "aerial_won": 0.1459, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4164, "tackles_won": 0.47, "tackles": 0.993, "clearances": 0.4077, "total_contest": 0.9913, "won_contest": 0.6043, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4368, "fouls_drawn": 0.4, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 8.3866, "total_progression": 35.9045, "progressive_carries": 0.8029, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.13, "projection_minutes": 18.13, "minutes_scale": 1.2205, "appearance_probability": 0.506 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7013, "expected_assists": 0.055, "assists": 0.0609, "assist_rate": 0.0609, "expected_goals": 0.0406, "goals": 0.0494, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "shots_on_target": 0.2066, "total_shots": 0.4317, "rating": 6.7607, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 16.6884, "accurate_pass": 14.2796, "duels_won": 2.1432, "total_long_balls": 1.0281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6877, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0928, "crosses_total": 1.4452, "crosses_accurate": 0.3139, "touches": 23.8469, "possession_lost": 5.0274, "dispossessed": 0.3017, "duels_lost": 1.1922, "aerial_won": 0.1459, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4164, "tackles_won": 0.47, "tackles": 0.993, "clearances": 0.4077, "total_contest": 0.9913, "won_contest": 0.6043, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4368, "fouls_drawn": 0.4, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 8.3866, "total_progression": 35.9045, "progressive_carries": 0.8029, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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"margin_base": -0.640773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.465598 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.120529 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.086366 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.071455 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.052895 } ], "others_margin": 0.051289 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0006563663482666, "model_output": 1.0007, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0526 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0309 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0307 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3756, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5289 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1499 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.047 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0462 }, { "name": 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"contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": 0.0075, "total": 0.0742, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.3729 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.141146 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.129898 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.078252 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.048226 } ], "others_margin": 0.108176 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7030224800109863, "model_output": 0.703, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2279 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0589 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0441 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0237 } ], "others": 0.0842, "total": 0.703, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.399691 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.1195 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.081089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.048801 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.03909 } ], "others_margin": 0.127429 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.793754577636719, "model_output": 6.7938, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0815 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.033 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": 0.0182, "total": 6.7938, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08151 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.033039 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022787 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016002 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.012029 } ], "others_margin": 0.018075 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1366, "goals": 0.095, "goal_rate": 0.095, "shots_on_target": 0.4201, "total_shots": 1.0002, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "key_pass": 0.7027, "rating": 6.7938, "minutes": 28.82, "total_pass": 19.8928, "accurate_pass": 14.752, "duels_won": 3.0755, "total_long_balls": 0.3475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3475, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7814, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5022, "crosses_total": 2.2785, "crosses_accurate": 0.1068, "touches": 35.6229, "possession_lost": 11.4738, "dispossessed": 0.3875, "duels_lost": 3.3976, "aerial_lost": 0.6192, "total_contest": 1.6584, "won_contest": 0.9388, "ball_recovery": 3.0421, "challenges_lost": 1.1274, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.302, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3614, "tackles_won": 0.1256, "tackles": 0.8346, "clearances": 0.1478, "blocks": 0.6861, "big_chances_created": 0.2407, "big_chances_missed": 0.2513, "xgot": 0.3205, "offsides": 0.4781, "ball_carries": 8.9211, "total_progression": 33.3994, "progressive_carries": 1.6778, "shots_off_target": 0.58 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8199999, "quality_factor": 0.5011, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.8 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1211, "goals": 0.0842, "goal_rate": 0.0842, "shots_on_target": 0.3724, "total_shots": 0.8865, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7938, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 17.6318, "accurate_pass": 13.0753, "duels_won": 2.7259, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3085, "crosses_total": 2.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0947, "touches": 31.574, "possession_lost": 10.1697, "dispossessed": 0.3875, "duels_lost": 3.0114, "aerial_lost": 0.6192, "total_contest": 1.4699, "won_contest": 0.8321, "ball_recovery": 2.6963, "challenges_lost": 1.1274, "fouls": 0.482, "fouls_drawn": 1.154, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3203, "tackles_won": 0.1113, "tackles": 0.7397, "clearances": 0.131, "blocks": 0.6081, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "big_chances_missed": 0.2227, "xgot": 0.2841, "offsides": 0.4781, "ball_carries": 7.9071, "total_progression": 29.6032, "progressive_carries": 1.4871, "shots_off_target": 0.5141, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.54, "projection_minutes": 28.82, "minutes_scale": 0.8863, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1211, "goals": 0.0842, "goal_rate": 0.0842, "shots_on_target": 0.3724, "total_shots": 0.8865, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7938, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 17.6318, "accurate_pass": 13.0753, "duels_won": 2.7259, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3085, "crosses_total": 2.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0947, "touches": 31.574, "possession_lost": 10.1697, "dispossessed": 0.3875, "duels_lost": 3.0114, "aerial_lost": 0.6192, "total_contest": 1.4699, "won_contest": 0.8321, "ball_recovery": 2.6963, "challenges_lost": 1.1274, "fouls": 0.482, "fouls_drawn": 1.154, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3203, "tackles_won": 0.1113, "tackles": 0.7397, "clearances": 0.131, "blocks": 0.6081, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "big_chances_missed": 0.2227, "xgot": 0.2841, "offsides": 0.4781, "ball_carries": 7.9071, "total_progression": 29.6032, "progressive_carries": 1.4871, "shots_off_target": 0.5141, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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], "others": 0.0075, "total": 0.0742, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.3729 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.141146 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.129898 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.078252 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.048226 } ], "others_margin": 0.108176 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7030224800109863, "model_output": 0.703, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2279 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0589 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0441 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0237 } ], "others": 0.0842, "total": 0.703, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.399691 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.1195 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.081089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.048801 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.03909 } ], "others_margin": 0.127429 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.793754577636719, "model_output": 6.7938, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0815 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.033 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": 0.0182, "total": 6.7938, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08151 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.033039 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022787 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016002 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.012029 } ], "others_margin": 0.018075 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1366, "goals": 0.095, "goal_rate": 0.095, "shots_on_target": 0.4201, "total_shots": 1.0002, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "key_pass": 0.7027, "rating": 6.7938, "minutes": 28.82, "total_pass": 19.8928, "accurate_pass": 14.752, "duels_won": 3.0755, "total_long_balls": 0.3475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3475, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7814, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5022, "crosses_total": 2.2785, "crosses_accurate": 0.1068, "touches": 35.6229, "possession_lost": 11.4738, "dispossessed": 0.3875, "duels_lost": 3.3976, "aerial_lost": 0.6192, "total_contest": 1.6584, "won_contest": 0.9388, "ball_recovery": 3.0421, "challenges_lost": 1.1274, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.302, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3614, "tackles_won": 0.1256, "tackles": 0.8346, "clearances": 0.1478, "blocks": 0.6861, "big_chances_created": 0.2407, "big_chances_missed": 0.2513, "xgot": 0.3205, "offsides": 0.4781, "ball_carries": 8.9211, "total_progression": 33.3994, "progressive_carries": 1.6778, "shots_off_target": 0.58 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8199999, "quality_factor": 0.5011, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.8 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1211, "goals": 0.0842, "goal_rate": 0.0842, "shots_on_target": 0.3724, "total_shots": 0.8865, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7938, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 17.6318, "accurate_pass": 13.0753, "duels_won": 2.7259, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3085, "crosses_total": 2.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0947, "touches": 31.574, "possession_lost": 10.1697, "dispossessed": 0.3875, "duels_lost": 3.0114, "aerial_lost": 0.6192, "total_contest": 1.4699, "won_contest": 0.8321, "ball_recovery": 2.6963, "challenges_lost": 1.1274, "fouls": 0.482, "fouls_drawn": 1.154, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3203, "tackles_won": 0.1113, "tackles": 0.7397, "clearances": 0.131, "blocks": 0.6081, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "big_chances_missed": 0.2227, "xgot": 0.2841, "offsides": 0.4781, "ball_carries": 7.9071, "total_progression": 29.6032, "progressive_carries": 1.4871, "shots_off_target": 0.5141, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.54, "projection_minutes": 28.82, "minutes_scale": 0.8863, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1211, "goals": 0.0842, "goal_rate": 0.0842, "shots_on_target": 0.3724, "total_shots": 0.8865, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7938, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 17.6318, "accurate_pass": 13.0753, "duels_won": 2.7259, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3085, "crosses_total": 2.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0947, "touches": 31.574, "possession_lost": 10.1697, "dispossessed": 0.3875, "duels_lost": 3.0114, "aerial_lost": 0.6192, "total_contest": 1.4699, "won_contest": 0.8321, "ball_recovery": 2.6963, "challenges_lost": 1.1274, "fouls": 0.482, "fouls_drawn": 1.154, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3203, "tackles_won": 0.1113, "tackles": 0.7397, "clearances": 0.131, "blocks": 0.6081, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "big_chances_missed": 0.2227, "xgot": 0.2841, "offsides": 0.4781, "ball_carries": 7.9071, "total_progression": 29.6032, "progressive_carries": 1.4871, "shots_off_target": 0.5141, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1211, "goal_rate": 0.0842, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3724, "total_shots": 0.8865, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7938, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 17.6318, "accurate_pass": 13.0753, "duels_won": 2.7259, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3085, "crosses_total": 2.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0947, "touches": 31.574, "possession_lost": 10.1697, "dispossessed": 0.3875, "duels_lost": 3.0114, "aerial_lost": 0.6192, "total_contest": 1.4699, "won_contest": 0.8321, "ball_recovery": 2.6963, "challenges_lost": 1.1274, "fouls": 0.482, "fouls_drawn": 1.154, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3203, "tackles_won": 0.1113, "tackles": 0.7397, "clearances": 0.131, "blocks": 0.6081, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "big_chances_missed": 0.2227, "xgot": 0.2841, "offsides": 0.4781, "ball_carries": 7.9071, "total_progression": 29.6032, "progressive_carries": 1.4871, "shots_off_target": 0.5141, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.269, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9911, xG scale 0.9323, xA scale 0.8699, team xA 0.74 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0842, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3724, "total_shots": 0.8865, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7938, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 17.6318, "accurate_pass": 13.0753, "duels_won": 2.7259, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3085, "crosses_total": 2.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0947, "touches": 31.574, "possession_lost": 10.1697, "dispossessed": 0.3875, "duels_lost": 3.0114, "aerial_lost": 0.6192, "total_contest": 1.4699, "won_contest": 0.8321, "ball_recovery": 2.6963, "challenges_lost": 1.1274, "fouls": 0.482, "fouls_drawn": 1.154, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3203, "tackles_won": 0.1113, "tackles": 0.7397, "clearances": 0.131, "blocks": 0.6081, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "big_chances_missed": 0.2227, "xgot": 0.151, "offsides": 0.4781, "ball_carries": 7.9071, "total_progression": 29.6032, "progressive_carries": 1.4871, "shots_off_target": 0.5141, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.269, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9911, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8498, "team_expected_assists": 0.7392, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9323, "xa_scale": 0.8699, "opponent_lambda": 2.772, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1211, "after": 0.0644 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0658, "after": 0.0326 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0842, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3724, "total_shots": 0.8865, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7938, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 17.6318, "accurate_pass": 13.0753, "duels_won": 2.7259, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3085, "crosses_total": 2.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0947, "touches": 31.574, "possession_lost": 10.1697, "dispossessed": 0.3875, "duels_lost": 3.0114, "aerial_lost": 0.6192, "total_contest": 1.4699, "won_contest": 0.8321, "ball_recovery": 2.6963, "challenges_lost": 1.1274, "fouls": 0.482, "fouls_drawn": 1.154, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3203, "tackles_won": 0.1113, "tackles": 0.7397, "clearances": 0.131, "blocks": 0.6081, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "big_chances_missed": 0.2227, "xgot": 0.151, "offsides": 0.4781, "ball_carries": 7.9071, "total_progression": 29.6032, "progressive_carries": 1.4871, "shots_off_target": 0.5141, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.269, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2264, "fifa_rank": 1564.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0842, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3724, "total_shots": 0.8865, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7938, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 17.6318, "accurate_pass": 13.0753, "duels_won": 2.7259, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3085, "crosses_total": 2.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0947, "touches": 31.574, "possession_lost": 10.1697, "dispossessed": 0.3875, "duels_lost": 3.0114, "aerial_lost": 0.6192, "total_contest": 1.4699, "won_contest": 0.8321, "ball_recovery": 2.6963, "challenges_lost": 1.1274, "fouls": 0.482, "fouls_drawn": 1.154, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3203, "tackles_won": 0.1113, "tackles": 0.7397, "clearances": 0.131, "blocks": 0.6081, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, "big_chances_missed": 0.2227, "xgot": 0.151, "offsides": 0.4781, "ball_carries": 7.9071, "total_progression": 29.6032, "progressive_carries": 1.4871, "shots_off_target": 0.5141, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.269, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0609, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.0842, "scorer_weight": 0.0515, "squad_weight_total": 1.0403, "weight_share": 0.0495, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0842, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3724, "total_shots": 0.8865, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.6228, "rating": 6.7938, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 17.6318, "accurate_pass": 13.0753, "duels_won": 2.7259, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.308, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3085, "crosses_total": 2.0195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0947, "touches": 31.574, "possession_lost": 10.1697, "dispossessed": 0.3875, "duels_lost": 3.0114, "aerial_lost": 0.6192, "total_contest": 1.4699, "won_contest": 0.8321, "ball_recovery": 2.6963, "challenges_lost": 1.1274, "fouls": 0.482, "fouls_drawn": 1.154, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3203, "tackles_won": 0.1113, "tackles": 0.7397, "clearances": 0.131, "blocks": 0.6081, "big_chances_created": 0.2133, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9906, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0753, "goals": 0.072, "goal_rate": 0.072, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5363, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "key_pass": 0.2343, "rating": 6.5795, "minutes": 13.92, "total_pass": 2.2982, "accurate_pass": 1.8916, "duels_won": 0.7865, "total_long_balls": 0.164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.164, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2517, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.8452, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2605, "possession_lost": 0.937, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.0118, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.42, "ball_recovery": 0.55, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1395, "fouls_drawn": 0.3664, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1395, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.227, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1775, "total_progression": 1.4517, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "shots_off_target": 0.3464 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3400000, "quality_factor": 0.4424, "boost_factor": 0.9906, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.9 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.113, "goals": 0.108, "goal_rate": 0.108, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.8045, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.3515, "rating": 6.5795, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.5196, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.31, "projection_minutes": 13.92, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.56 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.113, "goals": 0.108, "goal_rate": 0.108, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.8045, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.3515, "rating": 6.5795, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.5196, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.113, "goal_rate": 0.108, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.8045, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.3515, "rating": 6.5795, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.5196, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.269, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9911, xG scale 0.9323, xA scale 0.8699, team xA 0.74 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.108, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.8045, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.3515, "rating": 6.5795, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7662, "total_progression": 2.1776, "progressive_carries": 0.3405, "shots_off_target": 0.5196, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.269, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9693, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9911, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8498, "team_expected_assists": 0.7392, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9323, "xa_scale": 0.8699, "opponent_lambda": 2.772, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.56 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.113, "after": 0.059 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0167, "after": 0.0081 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.108, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.8045, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.3515, "rating": 6.5795, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 3.4473, "accurate_pass": 2.8374, "duels_won": 1.1797, "total_long_balls": 0.246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3908, "possession_lost": 1.4055, "dispossessed": 0.3664, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.5059, "total_contest": 0.63, "won_contest": 0.63, "ball_recovery": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2093, "fouls_drawn": 0.5496, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3405, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 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"base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3517 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2348 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0273 } ], "others": -0.0156, "total": 0.3541, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.351745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.234754 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.031309 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.029942 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.027305 } ], "others_margin": -0.015673 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.760696887969971, "model_output": 6.7607, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1107 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0229 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.007 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": 6.7607, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.110743 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.022946 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021765 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010788 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.007013 } ], "others_margin": -0.004947 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9987, quality 0.477)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5746, "expected_assists": 0.0451, "assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goals": 0.0405, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "shots_on_target": 0.1693, "total_shots": 0.3537, "rating": 6.7607, "minutes": 18.13, "total_pass": 13.6729, "accurate_pass": 11.6994, "duels_won": 1.7559, "total_long_balls": 0.8423, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5634, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8232, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2496, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8497, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4498, "crosses_total": 1.1841, "crosses_accurate": 0.2572, "touches": 19.5379, "possession_lost": 4.119, "dispossessed": 0.3017, "duels_lost": 0.9768, "aerial_won": 0.1195, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3412, "tackles_won": 0.3851, "tackles": 0.8136, "clearances": 0.334, "total_contest": 0.8122, "won_contest": 0.4951, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3579, "fouls_drawn": 0.3277, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0535, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0198, "ball_carries": 6.8712, "total_progression": 29.4168, "progressive_carries": 0.6578, "shots_off_target": 0.1844 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6200000, "quality_factor": 0.4769, "boost_factor": 0.9987, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.1 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7013, "expected_assists": 0.055, "assists": 0.0609, "assist_rate": 0.0609, "expected_goals": 0.0406, "goals": 0.0494, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "shots_on_target": 0.2066, "total_shots": 0.4317, "rating": 6.7607, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 16.6884, "accurate_pass": 14.2796, "duels_won": 2.1432, "total_long_balls": 1.0281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6877, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0928, "crosses_total": 1.4452, "crosses_accurate": 0.3139, "touches": 23.8469, "possession_lost": 5.0274, "dispossessed": 0.3017, "duels_lost": 1.1922, "aerial_won": 0.1459, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4164, "tackles_won": 0.47, "tackles": 0.993, "clearances": 0.4077, "total_contest": 0.9913, "won_contest": 0.6043, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4368, "fouls_drawn": 0.4, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 8.3866, "total_progression": 35.9045, "progressive_carries": 0.8029, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.13, "projection_minutes": 18.13, "minutes_scale": 1.2205, "appearance_probability": 0.506 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7013, "expected_assists": 0.055, "assists": 0.0609, "assist_rate": 0.0609, "expected_goals": 0.0406, "goals": 0.0494, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "shots_on_target": 0.2066, "total_shots": 0.4317, "rating": 6.7607, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 16.6884, "accurate_pass": 14.2796, "duels_won": 2.1432, "total_long_balls": 1.0281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6877, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0928, "crosses_total": 1.4452, "crosses_accurate": 0.3139, "touches": 23.8469, "possession_lost": 5.0274, "dispossessed": 0.3017, "duels_lost": 1.1922, "aerial_won": 0.1459, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4164, "tackles_won": 0.47, "tackles": 0.993, "clearances": 0.4077, "total_contest": 0.9913, "won_contest": 0.6043, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4368, "fouls_drawn": 0.4, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 8.3866, "total_progression": 35.9045, "progressive_carries": 0.8029, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7013, "expected_assists": 0.055, "assist_rate": 0.0609, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0406, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2066, "total_shots": 0.4317, "rating": 6.7607, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 16.6884, "accurate_pass": 14.2796, "duels_won": 2.1432, "total_long_balls": 1.0281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6877, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0928, "crosses_total": 1.4452, "crosses_accurate": 0.3139, "touches": 23.8469, "possession_lost": 5.0274, "dispossessed": 0.3017, "duels_lost": 1.1922, "aerial_won": 0.1459, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4164, "tackles_won": 0.47, "tackles": 0.993, "clearances": 0.4077, "total_contest": 0.9913, "won_contest": 0.6043, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4368, "fouls_drawn": 0.4, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 8.3866, "total_progression": 35.9045, "progressive_carries": 0.8029, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.269, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9911, xG scale 0.9323, xA scale 0.8699, team xA 0.74 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7013, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "assist_rate": 0.0609, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2066, "total_shots": 0.4317, "rating": 6.7607, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 16.6884, "accurate_pass": 14.2796, "duels_won": 2.1432, "total_long_balls": 1.0281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6877, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0928, "crosses_total": 1.4452, "crosses_accurate": 0.3139, "touches": 23.8469, "possession_lost": 5.0274, "dispossessed": 0.3017, "duels_lost": 1.1922, "aerial_won": 0.1459, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4164, "tackles_won": 0.47, "tackles": 0.993, "clearances": 0.4077, "total_contest": 0.9913, "won_contest": 0.6043, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4368, "fouls_drawn": 0.4, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 8.3866, "total_progression": 35.9045, "progressive_carries": 0.8029, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.269, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0971, "creation_factor": 1.0562 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9911, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8498, "team_expected_assists": 0.7392, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9323, "xa_scale": 0.8699, "opponent_lambda": 2.772, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.506 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0406, "after": 0.0192 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.055, "after": 0.0242 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7013, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "assist_rate": 0.0609, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2066, "total_shots": 0.4317, "rating": 6.7607, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 16.6884, "accurate_pass": 14.2796, "duels_won": 2.1432, "total_long_balls": 1.0281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6877, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0928, "crosses_total": 1.4452, "crosses_accurate": 0.3139, "touches": 23.8469, "possession_lost": 5.0274, "dispossessed": 0.3017, "duels_lost": 1.1922, "aerial_won": 0.1459, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4164, "tackles_won": 0.47, "tackles": 0.993, "clearances": 0.4077, "total_contest": 0.9913, "won_contest": 0.6043, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4368, "fouls_drawn": 0.4, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 8.3866, "total_progression": 35.9045, "progressive_carries": 0.8029, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.269, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0971, "creation_factor": 1.0562, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3700, "fifa_rank": 2894.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7013, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "assist_rate": 0.0609, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2066, "total_shots": 0.4317, "rating": 6.7607, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 16.6884, "accurate_pass": 14.2796, "duels_won": 2.1432, "total_long_balls": 1.0281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6877, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0928, "crosses_total": 1.4452, "crosses_accurate": 0.3139, "touches": 23.8469, "possession_lost": 5.0274, "dispossessed": 0.3017, "duels_lost": 1.1922, "aerial_won": 0.1459, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4164, "tackles_won": 0.47, "tackles": 0.993, "clearances": 0.4077, "total_contest": 0.9913, "won_contest": 0.6043, 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1.0971, "appearance_weight": 0.506, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7013, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "assist_rate": 0.0609, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2066, "total_shots": 0.4317, "rating": 6.7607, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 16.6884, "accurate_pass": 14.2796, "duels_won": 2.1432, "total_long_balls": 1.0281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6877, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8014, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0928, "crosses_total": 1.4452, "crosses_accurate": 0.3139, "touches": 23.8469, "possession_lost": 5.0274, "dispossessed": 0.3017, "duels_lost": 1.1922, "aerial_won": 0.1459, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4164, "tackles_won": 0.47, "tackles": 0.993, "clearances": 0.4077, "total_contest": 0.9913, "won_contest": 0.6043, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4368, "fouls_drawn": 0.4, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 8.3866, "total_progression": 35.9045, "progressive_carries": 0.8029, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.269, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0188, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0236, "finishing_factor": 1.0971, "creation_factor": 1.0562, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0609, "provider_weight": 0.0256, "squad_weight_total": 0.7855, "weight_share": 0.0325, "creation_factor": 1.0562, "appearance_weight": 0.506, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.92, "expected_assists": 0.74, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 446, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.88, "possession_estimated_pct": 45.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } }, "Real Madrid": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Kylian Mbappé": { "player_id": 826643, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 212000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.2898, "goal_rate": 1.2109, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_shots": 5, "expected_assists": 0.3339, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.8382, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 1, 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"team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.6713, "expected_assists": 0.1673, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416306.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.5287, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2, "combined_rank_score": 5.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 10.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.5, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.8382, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": 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"total": 0.1781, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.206305 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.169456 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.150796 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.083987 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.073333 } ], "others_margin": 0.324163 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.6311211585998535, "model_output": 1.6311, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1743 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1127 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1256 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.1147 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0815 } ], "others": 0.3306, "total": 1.6311, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.224757 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.122298 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.120745 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.098819 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.064696 } ], "others_margin": 0.226538 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.8382182121276855, "model_output": 7.8382, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.2024 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1886 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1607 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0889 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0475 } ], "others": 0.3768, "total": 7.8382, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.202433 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.188632 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.160686 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.088852 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.047525 } ], "others_margin": 0.376756 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0129, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7088, "goals": 0.9815, "goal_rate": 0.9815, "shots_on_target": 2.0425, "total_shots": 3.8724, "expected_assists": 0.1804, "key_pass": 1.6522, "rating": 7.8382, "minutes": 88.53, "total_pass": 29.5898, "accurate_pass": 25.0753, "duels_won": 5.0644, "total_long_balls": 1.6304, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0361, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5918, "crosses_total": 1.1122, "crosses_accurate": 0.0194, "touches": 50.0424, "possession_lost": 13.125, "dispossessed": 1.3335, "duels_lost": 4.6603, "aerial_lost": 0.1986, "total_contest": 5.4435, "won_contest": 2.9787, "ball_recovery": 1.0094, "challenges_lost": 0.2253, "fouls": 0.6096, "fouls_drawn": 1.7267, "assists": 0.1538, "assist_rate": 0.1538, "interceptions": 0.1985, "tackles_won": 0.1512, "tackles": 0.2447, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2142, "big_chances_missed": 1.2781, "xgot": 1.1434, "offsides": 1.3559, "ball_carries": 17.8789, "total_progression": 112.2729, "progressive_carries": 4.7412, "shots_off_target": 1.8299 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 212000000, "quality_factor": 0.9, "boost_factor": 1.0129, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0141)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7088, "goals": 0.9862, "goal_rate": 0.9862, "shots_on_target": 2.0785, "total_shots": 3.9289, "expected_assists": 0.1804, "key_pass": 1.6522, "rating": 7.8382, "minutes": 88.53, "total_pass": 29.5898, "accurate_pass": 25.0753, "duels_won": 5.0644, "total_long_balls": 1.6304, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0361, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5918, "crosses_total": 1.1058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0194, "touches": 50.0424, "possession_lost": 13.125, "dispossessed": 1.3335, "duels_lost": 4.6603, "aerial_lost": 0.1986, "total_contest": 5.4435, "won_contest": 2.9787, "ball_recovery": 1.0094, "challenges_lost": 0.2253, "fouls": 0.6149, "fouls_drawn": 1.7162, "assists": 0.1516, "assist_rate": 0.1516, "interceptions": 0.2003, "tackles_won": 0.1491, "tackles": 0.2447, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2142, "big_chances_missed": 1.2781, "xgot": 1.1434, "offsides": 1.3414, "ball_carries": 17.8789, "total_progression": 112.2729, "progressive_carries": 4.7412, "shots_off_target": 1.8299 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0141, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9837, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 3.8724, "after": 3.9289 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 2.0425, 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"ball_recovery": 1.0094, "challenges_lost": 0.2253, "fouls": 0.6149, "fouls_drawn": 1.7162, "assists": 0.1516, "assist_rate": 0.1516, "interceptions": 0.2003, "tackles_won": 0.1491, "tackles": 0.2447, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2142, "big_chances_missed": 1.2781, "xgot": 1.1434, "offsides": 1.3414, "ball_carries": 17.8789, "total_progression": 112.2729, "progressive_carries": 4.7412, "shots_off_target": 1.8299 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.8703, "goals": 1.2109, "goal_rate": 1.2109, "shots_on_target": 2.552, "total_shots": 4.8239, "expected_assists": 0.1804, "key_pass": 1.6522, "rating": 7.8382, "minutes": 88.53, "total_pass": 29.5898, "accurate_pass": 25.0753, "duels_won": 5.0644, "total_long_balls": 1.6304, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0361, 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"numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Alvaro Mantilla, Jeanuël Belocian", "opponent_faced": "Alvaro Mantilla, Jeanuël Belocian", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alvaro Mantilla, Jeanuël Belocian", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.355, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.2278, "skill_edge": 0.171, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.9, "defender_skill": 0.52, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Alvaro Mantilla", "market_value": 1200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Jeanuël Belocian", "market_value": 12900000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6027 } ], "xg_override": 0.8703 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 3.9289, "after": 4.8239 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5918, "crosses_total": 1.1058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0194, "touches": 50.0424, "possession_lost": 13.125, "dispossessed": 1.3335, "duels_lost": 4.6603, "aerial_lost": 0.1986, "total_contest": 5.4435, "won_contest": 2.9787, "ball_recovery": 1.0094, "challenges_lost": 0.2253, "fouls": 0.6149, "fouls_drawn": 1.7162, "assist_rate": 0.1516, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2003, "tackles_won": 0.1491, "tackles": 0.2447, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2142, "big_chances_missed": 1.5693, "xgot": 1.4039, "offsides": 1.3414, "ball_carries": 17.8789, "total_progression": 112.2729, "progressive_carries": 4.7412, "shots_off_target": 2.2468, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2278, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.355, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Alvaro Mantilla, Jeanuël Belocian", "opponent_faced": "Alvaro Mantilla, Jeanuël Belocian", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goals", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.77 (squad xG sum 1.8704, xG scale 1.4820, xA scale 1.8511, team xA 1.80 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.2898, "goal_rate": 1.2109, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2.552, "total_shots": 4.8239, "expected_assists": 0.3339, "key_pass": 1.6522, "rating": 7.8382, "minutes": 88.53, "total_pass": 29.5898, "accurate_pass": 25.0753, "duels_won": 5.0644, "total_long_balls": 1.6304, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0361, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5918, "crosses_total": 1.1058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0194, "touches": 50.0424, "possession_lost": 13.125, "dispossessed": 1.3335, "duels_lost": 4.6603, "aerial_lost": 0.1986, "total_contest": 5.4435, "won_contest": 2.9787, "ball_recovery": 1.0094, "challenges_lost": 0.2253, "fouls": 0.6149, "fouls_drawn": 1.7162, "assist_rate": 0.1516, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2003, "tackles_won": 0.1491, "tackles": 0.2447, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2142, "big_chances_missed": 1.5693, "xgot": 2.0806, "offsides": 1.3414, "ball_carries": 17.8789, "total_progression": 112.2729, "progressive_carries": 4.7412, "shots_off_target": 2.2468, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2278, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.355, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Alvaro Mantilla, Jeanuël Belocian", "opponent_faced": "Alvaro Mantilla, Jeanuël Belocian", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.875 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.772, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8704, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9733, "team_expected_assists": 1.8018, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.482, "xa_scale": 1.8511, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.8703, "after": 1.2898 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1804, "after": 0.3339 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"xgot": 2.0806, "offsides": 1.3414, "ball_carries": 17.8789, "total_progression": 112.2729, "progressive_carries": 4.7412, "shots_off_target": 2.2468, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2278, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.355, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Alvaro Mantilla, Jeanuël Belocian", "opponent_faced": "Alvaro Mantilla, Jeanuël Belocian", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.875, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2, "fifa_rank": 1.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 91.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.2898, "goal_rate": 1.2109, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2.552, "total_shots": 4.8239, "expected_assists": 0.3339, "key_pass": 1.6522, "rating": 7.8382, "minutes": 88.53, "total_pass": 29.5898, "accurate_pass": 25.0753, "duels_won": 5.0644, "total_long_balls": 1.6304, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0361, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5918, "crosses_total": 1.1058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0194, "touches": 50.0424, "possession_lost": 13.125, "dispossessed": 1.3335, "duels_lost": 4.6603, "aerial_lost": 0.1986, "total_contest": 5.4435, "won_contest": 2.9787, "ball_recovery": 1.0094, "challenges_lost": 0.2253, "fouls": 0.6149, "fouls_drawn": 1.7162, 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0138, quality 0.899)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2524, "expected_assists": 0.1378, "assists": 0.1251, "assist_rate": 0.1251, "expected_goals": 0.1387, "goals": 0.1529, "goal_rate": 0.1529, "shots_on_target": 0.5848, "total_shots": 1.6784, "rating": 7.1244, "minutes": 83.17, "total_pass": 38.439, "accurate_pass": 33.5133, "duels_won": 8.4842, "total_long_balls": 3.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.382, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.6117, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1313, "crosses_total": 0.3818, "crosses_accurate": 0.028, "touches": 59.626, "possession_lost": 10.1087, "dispossessed": 1.1714, "duels_lost": 5.2871, "aerial_won": 0.6141, "aerial_lost": 1.49, "interceptions": 0.5104, "tackles_won": 1.4406, "tackles": 2.319, "clearances": 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2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.382, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.6117, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1313, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.028, "touches": 59.626, "possession_lost": 10.1087, "dispossessed": 1.1714, "duels_lost": 5.2871, "aerial_won": 0.6141, "aerial_lost": 1.49, "interceptions": 0.5035, "tackles_won": 1.4396, "tackles": 2.319, "clearances": 0.8244, "total_contest": 3.4656, "won_contest": 2.2622, "challenges_lost": 0.4891, "fouls": 0.964, "fouls_drawn": 3.2983, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.3793, "big_chances_missed": 0.1282, "xgot": 0.1937, "ball_carries": 19.8636, "total_progression": 69.6888, "progressive_carries": 2.3672, "shots_off_target": 1.0936 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0136, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9241, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6784, "after": 1.693 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 3.3107, "after": 3.2983 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5848, "after": 0.5956 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1251, "after": 0.1327 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1529, "after": 0.1601 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5104, "after": 0.5035 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2524, "expected_assists": 0.1378, "assists": 0.1327, "assist_rate": 0.1327, "expected_goals": 0.1387, "goals": 0.1601, "goal_rate": 0.1601, "shots_on_target": 0.5956, "total_shots": 1.693, "rating": 7.1244, "minutes": 83.17, "total_pass": 38.439, "accurate_pass": 33.5133, "duels_won": 8.4842, "total_long_balls": 3.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.382, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.6117, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1313, "crosses_total": 0.3813, 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"duel_win_rate": 0.471, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín, Matteo Prati", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín, Matteo Prati", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín, Matteo Prati", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.3403, "skill_edge": 0.1995, "height_edge": 0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.8996, "defender_skill": 0.4563, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "market_value": 2700000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4396 }, { "player": "Matteo Prati", "market_value": 5000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 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7.1244, "minutes": 83.17, "total_pass": 38.439, "accurate_pass": 33.5133, "duels_won": 8.4842, "total_long_balls": 3.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.382, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.6117, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1313, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.028, "touches": 59.626, "possession_lost": 10.1087, "dispossessed": 1.1714, "duels_lost": 5.2871, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.49, "interceptions": 0.5035, "tackles_won": 1.4396, "tackles": 2.319, "clearances": 0.8244, "total_contest": 3.4656, "won_contest": 2.2622, "challenges_lost": 0.4891, "fouls": 0.964, "fouls_drawn": 3.2983, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.3793, "big_chances_missed": 0.1718, "xgot": 0.2596, "ball_carries": 19.8636, "total_progression": 69.6888, "progressive_carries": 2.3672, "shots_off_target": 1.4658, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.3403, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, 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"assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Madrid, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7735, "goals_prevented": 0.0475, "rating": 7.0044, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.7407, "accurate_pass": 27.1933, "total_long_balls": 8.7728, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2961, "touches": 41.6055, "clearances": 0.5463, "ball_recovery": 7.2543, "high_claims": 0.6893, "punches": 0.0632, "aerial_won": 0.0328, "sweeper_actions": 0.8073, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8069, "saves_inside_box": 1.5882, "possession_lost": 5.6303, "duels_won": 0.0362, "duels_lost": 0.0189, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0112, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5404, 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"model_output": 0.0475, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0107, "total": 0.0475, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.020663 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.019593 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016938 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.016372 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.012856 } ], "others_margin": -0.010644 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.004371166229248, "model_output": 7.0044, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0151, "total": 7.0044, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.027352 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.014675 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.010381 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0022, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7796, "goals_prevented": 0.0476, "rating": 7.0044, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.8127, "accurate_pass": 27.2531, "total_long_balls": 8.7921, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3034, "touches": 41.697, "clearances": 0.5475, "ball_recovery": 7.2703, "high_claims": 0.6908, "punches": 0.0633, "aerial_won": 0.0329, "sweeper_actions": 0.8091, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8087, "saves_inside_box": 1.5917, "possession_lost": 5.6427, "duels_won": 0.0363, "duels_lost": 0.0189, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0112, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4254 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14500000, "quality_factor": 0.5737, "boost_factor": 1.0022, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0141)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7639, "goals_prevented": 0.0476, "rating": 7.0044, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.8127, "accurate_pass": 27.2531, "total_long_balls": 8.7921, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3034, "touches": 41.697, "clearances": 0.5475, "ball_recovery": 7.2703, "high_claims": 0.6908, "punches": 0.0633, "aerial_won": 0.0329, "sweeper_actions": 0.8091, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8087, "saves_inside_box": 1.5917, "possession_lost": 5.6427, "duels_won": 0.0363, "duels_lost": 0.0189, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.011, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4254 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0141, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.7796, "after": 2.7639 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.7639, "goals_prevented": 0.0476, "rating": 7.0044, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.8127, "accurate_pass": 27.2531, "total_long_balls": 8.7921, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3034, "touches": 41.697, "clearances": 0.5475, "ball_recovery": 7.2703, "high_claims": 0.6908, "punches": 0.0633, "aerial_won": 0.0329, "sweeper_actions": 0.8091, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8087, "saves_inside_box": 1.5917, "possession_lost": 5.6427, "duels_won": 0.0363, "duels_lost": 0.0189, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.011, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4254 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7639, "goals_prevented": 0.0476, "rating": 7.0044, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.8127, "accurate_pass": 27.2531, "total_long_balls": 8.7921, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3034, "touches": 41.697, "clearances": 0.5475, "ball_recovery": 7.2703, "high_claims": 0.6908, "punches": 0.0633, "aerial_won": 0.0329, "sweeper_actions": 0.8091, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8087, "saves_inside_box": 1.5917, "possession_lost": 5.6427, "duels_won": 0.0363, "duels_lost": 0.0189, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.011, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4254, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.913, "shots_faced": 8.7, "expected_saves": 2.13, "high_pressure_saves": 0.73, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Pablo García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Pablo García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.913 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.7639, "goals_prevented": 0.0476, "rating": 7.0044, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.8127, "accurate_pass": 27.2531, "total_long_balls": 8.7921, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3034, "touches": 41.697, "clearances": 0.5475, "ball_recovery": 7.2703, "high_claims": 0.6908, "punches": 0.0633, "aerial_won": 0.0329, "sweeper_actions": 0.8091, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8087, "saves_inside_box": 1.5917, "possession_lost": 5.6427, "duels_won": 0.0363, "duels_lost": 0.0189, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.011, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4254, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.913, "shots_faced": 8.7, "expected_saves": 2.13, "high_pressure_saves": 0.73, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Pablo García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.77 (squad xG sum 1.8704, xG scale 1.4820, xA scale 1.8511, team xA 1.80 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7639, "goals_prevented": 0.0476, "rating": 7.0044, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.8127, "accurate_pass": 27.2531, "total_long_balls": 8.7921, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3034, "touches": 41.697, "clearances": 0.5475, "ball_recovery": 7.2703, "high_claims": 0.6908, "punches": 0.0633, "aerial_won": 0.0329, "sweeper_actions": 0.8091, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8087, "saves_inside_box": 1.5917, "possession_lost": 5.6427, "duels_won": 0.0363, "duels_lost": 0.0189, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.011, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4254, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.913, "shots_faced": 8.8, "expected_saves": 2.16, "high_pressure_saves": 0.74, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri, Pablo García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.772, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8704, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9733, "team_expected_assists": 1.8018, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.482, "xa_scale": 1.8511, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 8.7, "after": 8.8 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.13, "after": 2.16 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.73, "after": 0.74 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0878 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0597 } ], "others": -0.0835, "total": 0.6293, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.416278 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.14281 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.134283 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120611 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.080454 } ], "others_margin": -0.124607 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4091683626174927, "model_output": 0.4092, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0487 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0486, "total": 0.4092, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048669 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020922 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.020363 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015611 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015177 } ], "others_margin": -0.048675 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.602574825286865, "model_output": 6.6026, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0551 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0194 } ], "others": -0.0516, "total": 6.6026, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.055147 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.0262 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023653 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.020159 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.019373 } ], "others_margin": -0.051674 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0209, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5685, "tackles": 1.4989, "tackles_won": 0.9635, "clearances": 2.2283, "aerial_won": 0.6424, "total_shots": 0.4178, "rating": 6.6026, "minutes": 85.38, "total_pass": 29.2279, "accurate_pass": 25.6799, "duels_won": 3.6029, "total_long_balls": 1.1111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6783, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7903, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2023, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4775, "crosses_total": 0.771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.4959, "possession_lost": 8.4009, "dispossessed": 0.9536, "duels_lost": 2.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.7082, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8981, "challenges_lost": 0.4329, "fouls": 0.3127, "fouls_drawn": 0.3776, "blocks": 0.5506, "goals": 0.0, 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1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5821, "tackles": 1.4989, "tackles_won": 0.9962, "clearances": 2.2283, "aerial_won": 0.6424, "total_shots": 0.4845, "rating": 6.6026, "minutes": 85.38, "total_pass": 29.2279, "accurate_pass": 25.6799, "duels_won": 3.6029, "total_long_balls": 1.1111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6783, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7903, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2023, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4775, "crosses_total": 0.7782, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.4959, "possession_lost": 8.4009, "dispossessed": 0.9536, "duels_lost": 2.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.7082, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8981, "challenges_lost": 0.4329, "fouls": 0.3344, "fouls_drawn": 0.3815, "blocks": 0.5506, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0642, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "shots_on_target": 0.3816, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0651, "ball_carries": 8.0111, "total_progression": 19.114, "progressive_carries": 0.5766, "key_pass": 0.9071, "shots_off_target": 0.0401, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.77 (squad xG sum 1.8704, xG scale 1.4820, xA scale 1.8511, team xA 1.80 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5821, "tackles": 1.4989, "tackles_won": 0.9962, "clearances": 2.2283, "aerial_won": 0.6424, "total_shots": 0.4845, "rating": 6.6026, "minutes": 85.38, "total_pass": 29.2279, "accurate_pass": 25.6799, "duels_won": 3.6029, "total_long_balls": 1.1111, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6783, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7903, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2023, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4775, "crosses_total": 0.7782, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.4959, "possession_lost": 8.4009, "dispossessed": 0.9536, "duels_lost": 2.4074, "aerial_lost": 0.7082, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8981, "challenges_lost": 0.4329, "fouls": 0.3344, "fouls_drawn": 0.3815, "blocks": 0.5506, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0951, "expected_assists": 0.06, "shots_on_target": 0.3816, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0965, "ball_carries": 8.0111, "total_progression": 19.114, "progressive_carries": 0.5766, "key_pass": 0.9071, "shots_off_target": 0.0401, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Yassir Zabiri", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.772, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8704, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9733, "team_expected_assists": 1.8018, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.482, "xa_scale": 1.8511, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0642, "after": 0.0951 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0324, "after": 0.06 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0575 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0541, "total": 0.4728, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.023759 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013015 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010637 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.009562 } ], "others_margin": -0.054121 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.857296943664551, "model_output": 6.8573, "scale": 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"prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 45, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8411, "tackles": 1.408, "tackles_won": 0.8606, "clearances": 4.2362, "aerial_won": 1.806, "total_shots": 0.4807, "rating": 6.8573, "minutes": 89.31, "total_pass": 52.6892, "accurate_pass": 48.4966, "duels_won": 3.8626, "total_long_balls": 3.2586, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0552, "total_own_half_passes": 36.2234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6025, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.466, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8941, "crosses_total": 0.0046, "crosses_accurate": 0.0036, "touches": 63.0948, "possession_lost": 4.9868, "dispossessed": 0.2837, "duels_lost": 2.5052, "aerial_lost": 0.8348, "total_contest": 0.0669, "won_contest": 0.0154, "ball_recovery": 2.9602, "challenges_lost": 0.2672, "fouls": 1.0634, "fouls_drawn": 0.6165, "blocks": 0.6805, "goal_rate": 0.0042, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "shots_on_target": 0.0863, "big_chances_created": 0.0006, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 17.7248, "total_progression": 84.7826, "progressive_carries": 0.7936, "key_pass": 0.1651, "shots_off_target": 0.3944, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Vicente", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.77 (squad xG sum 1.8704, xG scale 1.4820, xA scale 1.8511, team xA 1.80 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8411, "tackles": 1.408, "tackles_won": 0.8606, "clearances": 4.2362, "aerial_won": 1.806, "total_shots": 0.4807, "rating": 6.8573, "minutes": 89.31, "total_pass": 52.6892, "accurate_pass": 48.4966, "duels_won": 3.8626, "total_long_balls": 3.2586, 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"importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1226 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0487 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0583, "total": 0.3235, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.12258 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048685 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024997 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.009033 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.008549 } ], "others_margin": -0.058332 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.748652935028076, "model_output": 6.7487, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0108, quality 0.857)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0781, "tackles": 2.0228, "tackles_won": 1.3303, "clearances": 2.6482, "aerial_won": 0.7647, "total_shots": 0.327, "rating": 6.7487, "minutes": 88.7, "total_pass": 47.2817, "accurate_pass": 41.8938, "duels_won": 3.677, "total_long_balls": 1.7093, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8028, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0126, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.108, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7858, "crosses_total": 1.3477, "crosses_accurate": 0.1838, "touches": 67.0985, "possession_lost": 8.3259, "dispossessed": 0.1965, "duels_lost": 3.5179, "aerial_lost": 0.6371, "total_contest": 0.1953, "won_contest": 0.0008, "ball_recovery": 4.6078, "challenges_lost": 0.9776, "fouls": 1.5234, "fouls_drawn": 0.7167, "blocks": 0.4661, "goals": 0.0, 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7.0257, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.089686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.062031 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030236 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.019942 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.016973 } ], "others_margin": -0.010733 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0126, quality 0.875)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5925, "expected_assists": 0.041, "assists": 0.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goals": 0.0489, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.1801, "total_shots": 0.837, "rating": 7.0257, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 53.0751, "accurate_pass": 49.3386, "duels_won": 4.5257, "total_long_balls": 3.7838, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6652, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2494, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2039, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1347, "crosses_total": 0.1533, "crosses_accurate": 0.0036, "touches": 64.8378, "possession_lost": 5.0725, "dispossessed": 0.2874, "duels_lost": 2.8367, "aerial_won": 1.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.5253, "interceptions": 1.8702, "tackles_won": 1.3444, "tackles": 2.5747, "clearances": 1.4469, "total_contest": 0.2231, "won_contest": 0.0585, "challenges_lost": 0.905, "fouls": 0.9569, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.2263, "big_chances_created": 0.0142, "big_chances_missed": 0.04, "xgot": 0.0347, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 43.6031, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.6569 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 73000000, "quality_factor": 0.8747, "boost_factor": 1.0126, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5925, "expected_assists": 0.041, "assists": 0.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goals": 0.0489, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.1801, "total_shots": 0.837, "rating": 7.0257, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 53.0751, "accurate_pass": 49.3386, "duels_won": 4.5257, "total_long_balls": 3.7838, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6652, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2494, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2039, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1347, "crosses_total": 0.1533, "crosses_accurate": 0.0036, "touches": 64.8378, "possession_lost": 5.0725, "dispossessed": 0.2874, "duels_lost": 2.8367, "aerial_won": 1.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.5253, "interceptions": 1.8702, "tackles_won": 1.3444, "tackles": 2.5747, "clearances": 1.4469, "total_contest": 0.2231, "won_contest": 0.0585, "challenges_lost": 0.905, "fouls": 0.9569, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.2263, "big_chances_created": 0.0142, "big_chances_missed": 0.04, "xgot": 0.0347, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 43.6031, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.6569 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5925, "expected_assists": 0.041, "assists": 0.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "shots_on_target": 0.2439, "total_shots": 1.1336, "rating": 7.0257, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 53.0751, "accurate_pass": 49.3386, "duels_won": 4.5257, "total_long_balls": 3.7838, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6652, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2494, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2039, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1347, "crosses_total": 0.1533, "crosses_accurate": 0.0036, "touches": 64.8378, "possession_lost": 5.0725, "dispossessed": 0.2874, "duels_lost": 2.8367, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.5253, "interceptions": 1.8702, "tackles_won": 1.3444, "tackles": 2.5747, "clearances": 1.4469, "total_contest": 0.2231, "won_contest": 0.0585, "challenges_lost": 0.905, "fouls": 0.9569, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.2263, "big_chances_created": 0.0142, "big_chances_missed": 0.0542, "xgot": 0.047, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 43.6031, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.8897, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.3544, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.661, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.661, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.3544, "skill_edge": 0.2011, "height_edge": 0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.8865, "defender_skill": 0.4396, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "market_value": 2700000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4396 } ], "xg_override": 0.0702 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.837, "after": 1.1336 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6569, "after": 0.8897 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.2886, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1801, "after": 0.2439 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0518, "after": 0.0702 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0489, "after": 0.0662 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.04, "after": 0.0542 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0347, "after": 0.047 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5925, "expected_assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2439, "total_shots": 1.1336, "rating": 7.0257, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 53.0751, "accurate_pass": 49.3386, "duels_won": 4.5257, "total_long_balls": 3.7838, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6652, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2494, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2039, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1347, "crosses_total": 0.1533, "crosses_accurate": 0.0036, "touches": 64.8378, "possession_lost": 5.0725, "dispossessed": 0.2874, "duels_lost": 2.8367, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.5253, "interceptions": 1.8702, "tackles_won": 1.3444, "tackles": 2.5747, "clearances": 1.4469, "total_contest": 0.2231, "won_contest": 0.0585, "challenges_lost": 0.905, "fouls": 0.9569, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.2263, "big_chances_created": 0.0142, "big_chances_missed": 0.0542, "xgot": 0.047, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 43.6031, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.8897, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.3544, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.661, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.77 (squad xG sum 1.8704, xG scale 1.4820, xA scale 1.8511, team xA 1.80 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5925, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.104, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2439, "total_shots": 1.1336, "rating": 7.0257, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 53.0751, "accurate_pass": 49.3386, "duels_won": 4.5257, "total_long_balls": 3.7838, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6652, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2494, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2039, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1347, "crosses_total": 0.1533, "crosses_accurate": 0.0036, "touches": 64.8378, "possession_lost": 5.0725, "dispossessed": 0.2874, "duels_lost": 2.8367, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.5253, "interceptions": 1.8702, "tackles_won": 1.3444, "tackles": 2.5747, "clearances": 1.4469, "total_contest": 0.2231, "won_contest": 0.0585, "challenges_lost": 0.905, "fouls": 0.9569, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.2263, "big_chances_created": 0.0142, "big_chances_missed": 0.0542, "xgot": 0.0697, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 43.6031, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.8897, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.3544, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.661, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9667, "creation_factor": 1.1857 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.772, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8704, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9733, "team_expected_assists": 1.8018, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.482, "xa_scale": 1.8511, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0702, "after": 0.104 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.041, "after": 0.0759 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5925, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.104, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2439, "total_shots": 1.1336, "rating": 7.0257, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 53.0751, "accurate_pass": 49.3386, "duels_won": 4.5257, "total_long_balls": 3.7838, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6652, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2494, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2039, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1347, "crosses_total": 0.1533, "crosses_accurate": 0.0036, "touches": 64.8378, "possession_lost": 5.0725, "dispossessed": 0.2874, "duels_lost": 2.8367, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.5253, "interceptions": 1.8702, "tackles_won": 1.3444, "tackles": 2.5747, "clearances": 1.4469, "total_contest": 0.2231, "won_contest": 0.0585, "challenges_lost": 0.905, "fouls": 0.9569, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.2263, "big_chances_created": 0.0142, "big_chances_missed": 0.0542, "xgot": 0.0697, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 43.6031, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.8897, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.3544, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.661, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9667, "creation_factor": 1.1857, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 300, "fifa_rank": 228.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5925, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.104, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2439, "total_shots": 1.1336, "rating": 7.0257, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 53.0751, "accurate_pass": 49.3386, "duels_won": 4.5257, "total_long_balls": 3.7838, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6652, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2494, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2039, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1347, "crosses_total": 0.1533, "crosses_accurate": 0.0036, "touches": 64.8378, "possession_lost": 5.0725, "dispossessed": 0.2874, "duels_lost": 2.8367, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.5253, "interceptions": 1.8702, "tackles_won": 1.3444, "tackles": 2.5747, "clearances": 1.4469, "total_contest": 0.2231, "won_contest": 0.0585, "challenges_lost": 0.905, "fouls": 0.9569, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.2263, "big_chances_created": 0.0142, "big_chances_missed": 0.0542, "xgot": 0.0697, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 43.6031, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.8897, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.3544, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.661, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0988, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9667, "creation_factor": 1.1857, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0988, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "scorer_weight": 0.1005, "squad_weight_total": 3.1623, "weight_share": 0.0318, "finishing_factor": 0.9667, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.6122, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.6122, "runner_up": "Yan Diomande", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3316 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.6122, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6861, "runner_up": "Yan Diomande", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3316 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5925, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.104, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2439, "total_shots": 1.1336, "rating": 7.0257, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 53.0751, "accurate_pass": 49.3386, "duels_won": 4.5257, "total_long_balls": 3.7838, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6652, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2494, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2039, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1347, "crosses_total": 0.1533, "crosses_accurate": 0.0036, "touches": 64.8378, "possession_lost": 5.0725, "dispossessed": 0.2874, "duels_lost": 2.8367, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.5253, "interceptions": 1.8702, "tackles_won": 1.3444, "tackles": 2.5747, "clearances": 1.4469, "total_contest": 0.2231, "won_contest": 0.0585, "challenges_lost": 0.905, "fouls": 0.9569, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.2263, "big_chances_created": 0.0142, "big_chances_missed": 0.0542, "xgot": 0.0697, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 43.6031, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.8897, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.3544, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.661, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0988, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0731, "finishing_factor": 0.9667, "creation_factor": 1.1857, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0731, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "provider_weight": 0.09, "squad_weight_total": 1.7856, "weight_share": 0.0504, "creation_factor": 1.1857, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yan Diomande", "weight": 0.3707, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3707, "runner_up": "Arda Güler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3371, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ] } ] } 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"match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1135, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yan Diomande", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Giovanni Di Lorenzo", "ranking": 1016 }, { "player_name": "Min-hyeok Kim", "ranking": 1017 }, { "player_name": "Tim Hartzell", "ranking": 1018 }, { "player_name": "Dae-kwang Lee", "ranking": 1019 }, { "player_name": "Stanislav Iljutcenko", "ranking": 1020 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Robin Roefs", "ranking": 1022 }, { "player_name": "Andrea Cambiaso", "ranking": 1023 }, { "player_name": "Clarismario", "ranking": 1024 }, { "player_name": "Milan Obradović", "ranking": 1025 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Carreras", "ranking": 1026 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.757, "history_matches": 10, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", 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"margin": 0.091854 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.067197 } ], "others_margin": 0.226707 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.3674139976501465, "model_output": 1.3674, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1811 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0968 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0937 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0902 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0422 } ], "others": 0.2561, "total": 1.3674, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.232604 }, { "name": 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"margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.098908 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.063465 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062454 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.053565 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.033809 } ], "others_margin": 0.095553 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0394, quality 0.899)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1459, "goals": 0.2227, "goal_rate": 0.2227, "shots_on_target": 0.6028, "total_shots": 1.673, "expected_assists": 0.1602, "key_pass": 1.4213, "rating": 7.1135, "minutes": 84.47, "total_pass": 40.88, "accurate_pass": 34.5989, "duels_won": 8.5488, "total_long_balls": 1.1833, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1833, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1777, "crosses_total": 2.5219, "crosses_accurate": 0.8751, "touches": 65.9793, "possession_lost": 16.5688, "dispossessed": 2.0049, "duels_lost": 7.1857, "aerial_lost": 0.5987, "total_contest": 6.7762, "won_contest": 4.1227, "ball_recovery": 4.3997, "challenges_lost": 0.7234, "fouls": 1.2052, "fouls_drawn": 1.1578, "assists": 0.4104, "assist_rate": 0.4104, "interceptions": 0.9832, "tackles_won": 1.8201, "tackles": 2.7078, "clearances": 0.3746, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1721, "big_chances_missed": 0.3636, "xgot": 0.2421, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26.879, "total_progression": 170.1908, "progressive_carries": 8.1373, "shots_off_target": 1.0702 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 132000000, "quality_factor": 0.8986, "boost_factor": 1.0394, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1459, "goals": 0.2204, "goal_rate": 0.2204, "shots_on_target": 0.5967, "total_shots": 1.6561, "expected_assists": 0.1602, "key_pass": 1.4213, "rating": 7.1135, "minutes": 84.47, "total_pass": 40.88, "accurate_pass": 34.5989, "duels_won": 8.5488, "total_long_balls": 1.1833, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1833, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1777, 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-0.0161, "total": 6.8228, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.028216 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.026589 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022555 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.022505 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.014796 } ], "others_margin": -0.016006 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0165, quality 0.857)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3283, "tackles": 0.4749, "tackles_won": 0.3734, "clearances": 0.8279, "aerial_won": 0.2153, "total_shots": 0.2785, "rating": 6.8228, "minutes": 14.79, "total_pass": 7.994, "accurate_pass": 6.1818, "duels_won": 0.7445, "total_long_balls": 2.3566, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1645, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3159, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7614, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.678, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4204, "crosses_total": 1.15, "crosses_accurate": 0.3828, "touches": 12.7959, "possession_lost": 3.4558, "dispossessed": 0.0843, "duels_lost": 0.2202, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1614, "won_contest": 0.1614, "ball_recovery": 0.5462, "challenges_lost": 0.0517, "fouls": 0.0843, "fouls_drawn": 0.1371, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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"total_shots": 0.2432, "rating": 6.8228, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 6.9725, "accurate_pass": 5.3918, "duels_won": 0.6494, "total_long_balls": 2.0555, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0157, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0802, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9833, "crosses_total": 1.0082, "crosses_accurate": 0.3339, "touches": 11.1607, "possession_lost": 3.0142, "dispossessed": 0.0843, "duels_lost": 0.1921, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1408, "won_contest": 0.1408, "ball_recovery": 0.4764, "challenges_lost": 0.0517, "fouls": 0.073, "fouls_drawn": 0.1197, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0868, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0091, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "shots_on_target": 0.0868, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0076, "ball_carries": 3.2874, "total_progression": 5.3522, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3007, "shots_off_target": 0.1564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.443, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.9, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.443, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0572 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0552, "total": 0.2427, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.880257 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.345696 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.153391 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.10964 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.036714 } ], "others_margin": -0.20473 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18359442055225372, "model_output": 0.1836, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2192 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0798 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 0.1836, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.219199 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.079817 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017478 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.012303 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.011025 } ], "others_margin": -0.017394 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8823442459106445, "model_output": 6.8823, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0366 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0144 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 6.8823, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.049749 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.036574 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.034829 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023168 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.01435 } ], "others_margin": -0.001957 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0130, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3005, "tackles": 0.7595, "tackles_won": 0.5034, "clearances": 0.6637, "aerial_won": 0.2459, "total_shots": 0.186, "rating": 6.8823, "minutes": 11.72, "total_pass": 3.7852, "accurate_pass": 2.9316, "duels_won": 1.3566, "total_long_balls": 0.6783, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3938, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3566, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0721, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8597, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.0455, "possession_lost": 1.4727, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3347, "aerial_lost": 0.3347, "total_contest": 0.7876, "won_contest": 0.7876, "ball_recovery": 0.7876, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1814, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.186 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 53000000, "quality_factor": 0.834, "boost_factor": 1.013, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0068)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2999, "tackles": 0.7595, "tackles_won": 0.5014, "clearances": 0.6637, "aerial_won": 0.2459, "total_shots": 0.1847, "rating": 6.8823, "minutes": 11.72, "total_pass": 3.7852, "accurate_pass": 2.9316, "duels_won": 1.3566, "total_long_balls": 0.6783, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3938, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3566, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0721, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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"player_name": "Federico Valverde", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lionel Messi", "ranking": 41 }, { "player_name": "Abdumavlon Abduzhalilov", "ranking": 42 }, { "player_name": "Eryin Sanhueza", "ranking": 43 }, { "player_name": "Euller", "ranking": 44 }, { "player_name": "Bukayo Saka", "ranking": 45 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ayrton Lucas", "ranking": 47 }, { "player_name": "Giorgian de Arrascaeta", "ranking": 48 }, { "player_name": "Rayan Cherki", "ranking": 49 }, { "player_name": "Rodri", "ranking": 50 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Serafim", "ranking": 51 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.778, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", 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{ "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0473 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0048, "total": 0.0337, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.468924, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.58961 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.187979 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.087582 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.050804 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.049744 } ], "others_margin": -0.129573 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.04688582941889763, "model_output": 0.0469, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0445 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0324 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0293 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0031 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 0.0469, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463472, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.295309 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.114899 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078317 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.056939 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.044335 } ], "others_margin": -0.120647 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.029378559440374374, "model_output": 0.0294, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0756 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0918, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.0294, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.529032 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.124953 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.101973 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.064747 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.064302 } ], "others_margin": -0.25452 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0357501395046711, "model_output": 0.0358, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0027, "total": 0.0358, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.422016 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.158483 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.147664 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.089437 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.080884 } ], "others_margin": -0.074331 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.11880790442228317, "model_output": 0.1188, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1407 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": -0.0172, "total": 0.1188, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.584737 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.125867 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.066591 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043475 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.029126 } ], "others_margin": -0.134365 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2518351376056671, "model_output": 0.2518, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.388 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0849 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0567 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0236 } ], "others": -0.1543, "total": 0.2518, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.388024 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.084949 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.056666 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.025603 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.023642 } ], "others_margin": -0.154217 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.879909038543701, "model_output": 6.8799, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0913 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0518 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 6.8799, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091308 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.086983 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.051752 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.014777 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.011686 } ], "others_margin": -0.028012 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0119, quality 0.887)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4512, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "assists": 0.0474, "assist_rate": 0.0474, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goals": 0.0362, "goal_rate": 0.0362, "shots_on_target": 0.1202, "total_shots": 0.2548, "rating": 6.8799, "minutes": 28.76, "total_pass": 46.9968, "accurate_pass": 42.0539, "duels_won": 2.7391, "total_long_balls": 4.0062, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8282, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8989, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9934, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.155, "crosses_total": 0.3334, "crosses_accurate": 0.0406, "touches": 57.7204, "possession_lost": 6.5113, "dispossessed": 0.2563, "duels_lost": 1.5697, "aerial_won": 0.6706, "aerial_lost": 0.044, "interceptions": 1.3526, "tackles_won": 0.6504, "tackles": 1.1941, "clearances": 1.4126, "total_contest": 0.701, "won_contest": 0.3966, "challenges_lost": 0.4289, "fouls": 0.5358, "fouls_drawn": 0.4778, "blocks": 0.3065, "big_chances_created": 0.2564, "big_chances_missed": 0.0002, "xgot": 0.0508, "ball_carries": 14.788, "total_progression": 53.4886, "progressive_carries": 1.486, "shots_off_target": 0.1346 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 87000000, "quality_factor": 0.8873, "boost_factor": 1.0119, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0126)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4512, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "assists": 0.0482, "assist_rate": 0.0482, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.1201, "total_shots": 0.2558, "rating": 6.8799, "minutes": 28.76, "total_pass": 46.9968, "accurate_pass": 42.0539, "duels_won": 2.7391, "total_long_balls": 4.0062, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8282, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0033, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8989, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9934, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.155, "crosses_total": 0.3306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0406, "touches": 57.7204, "possession_lost": 6.5113, "dispossessed": 0.2563, "duels_lost": 1.5697, "aerial_won": 0.6706, "aerial_lost": 0.044, "interceptions": 1.3398, "tackles_won": 0.6494, "tackles": 1.1941, "clearances": 1.4126, "total_contest": 0.701, "won_contest": 0.3966, "challenges_lost": 0.4289, "fouls": 0.5305, "fouls_drawn": 0.4718, "blocks": 0.3065, "big_chances_created": 0.2564, "big_chances_missed": 0.0002, "xgot": 0.0508, "ball_carries": 14.788, "total_progression": 53.4886, "progressive_carries": 1.486, "shots_off_target": 0.1346 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0126, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3196, "prior_reliability": 0.1867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.3526, "after": 1.3398 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.4778, "after": 0.4718 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5358, "after": 0.5305 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.8 to 23.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3727, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "assists": 0.0398, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goals": 0.0295, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "shots_on_target": 0.0992, "total_shots": 0.2113, "rating": 6.8799, "minutes": 23.75, "total_pass": 38.8157, "accurate_pass": 34.7333, "duels_won": 2.2623, "total_long_balls": 3.3088, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3359, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5212, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.609, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1242, "crosses_total": 0.2731, "crosses_accurate": 0.0335, "touches": 47.6726, "possession_lost": 5.3778, "dispossessed": 0.2563, "duels_lost": 1.2965, "aerial_won": 0.5539, "aerial_lost": 0.044, "interceptions": 1.1066, "tackles_won": 0.5364, "tackles": 0.9862, "clearances": 1.1667, "total_contest": 0.579, "won_contest": 0.3276, "challenges_lost": 0.4289, "fouls": 0.4382, "fouls_drawn": 0.3897, "blocks": 0.2531, "big_chances_created": 0.2118, "big_chances_missed": 0.0002, "xgot": 0.042, "ball_carries": 12.2137, "total_progression": 44.1775, "progressive_carries": 1.2273, "shots_off_target": 0.1112, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.75 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.75, "projection_minutes": 28.76, "minutes_scale": 0.8259, "appearance_probability": 0.343 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3727, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "assists": 0.0398, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goals": 0.0295, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "shots_on_target": 0.0992, "total_shots": 0.2113, "rating": 6.8799, "minutes": 23.75, "total_pass": 38.8157, "accurate_pass": 34.7333, "duels_won": 2.2623, "total_long_balls": 3.3088, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3359, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5212, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.609, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1242, "crosses_total": 0.2731, "crosses_accurate": 0.0335, "touches": 47.6726, "possession_lost": 5.3778, "dispossessed": 0.2563, "duels_lost": 1.2965, "aerial_won": 0.5539, "aerial_lost": 0.044, "interceptions": 1.1066, "tackles_won": 0.5364, "tackles": 0.9862, "clearances": 1.1667, "total_contest": 0.579, "won_contest": 0.3276, "challenges_lost": 0.4289, "fouls": 0.4382, "fouls_drawn": 0.3897, "blocks": 0.2531, "big_chances_created": 0.2118, "big_chances_missed": 0.0002, "xgot": 0.042, "ball_carries": 12.2137, "total_progression": 44.1775, "progressive_carries": 1.2273, "shots_off_target": 0.1112, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.75 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": 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], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0018, "total": 0.034, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.462784 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.204326 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.185798 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.068272 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05139 } ], "others_margin": -0.049212 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07082601636648178, "model_output": 0.0708, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", 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"totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3384 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2641 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0328 } ], "others": -0.1086, "total": 0.1652, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.338405 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.264097 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041323 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034493 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.032832 } ], "others_margin": -0.108579 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.756659507751465, "model_output": 6.7567, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1051 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": 0.0195, "total": 6.7567, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.105093 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021576 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016944 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012317 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011078 } ], "others_margin": 0.019474 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4039, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assists": 0.0392, "assist_rate": 0.0392, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "shots_on_target": 0.0716, "total_shots": 0.167, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 18.06, "total_pass": 14.4223, "accurate_pass": 12.9534, "duels_won": 2.1072, "total_long_balls": 1.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7325, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.39, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5634, "crosses_total": 0.0085, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.883, "possession_lost": 1.9609, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.786, "aerial_won": 0.1753, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.2034, "tackles_won": 0.3676, "tackles": 0.8936, "clearances": 0.4675, 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"total_own_half_passes": 5.9142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.39, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5634, "crosses_total": 0.0084, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.883, "possession_lost": 1.9609, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.786, "aerial_won": 0.1753, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.2051, "tackles_won": 0.3672, "tackles": 0.8936, "clearances": 0.4675, "total_contest": 0.4298, "won_contest": 0.3733, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.38, "fouls_drawn": 0.6607, "blocks": 0.3765, "big_chances_created": 0.174, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5041, "total_progression": 24.0897, "progressive_carries": 0.6447, "shots_off_target": 0.0954 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0066, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2007, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.1 to 17.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assists": 0.037, "assist_rate": 0.037, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goals": 0.0325, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.16, "projection_minutes": 18.06, "minutes_scale": 0.9502, "appearance_probability": 0.594 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assists": 0.037, "assist_rate": 0.037, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goals": 0.0325, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.037, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.77 (squad xG sum 1.8704, xG scale 1.4820, xA scale 1.8511, team xA 1.80 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "assist_rate": 0.037, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2332, "creation_factor": 1.0199 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.772, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8704, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9733, "team_expected_assists": 1.8018, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.482, "xa_scale": 1.8511, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.594 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0402 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.033 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0161 } ], "others": 0.0563, "total": 0.502, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.640773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.471508 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.11537 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.085552 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.06652 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.036783 } ], "others_margin": 0.118895 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3153446912765503, "model_output": 1.3153, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0526 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0309 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0307 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3756, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6503 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2478 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0858 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0469 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0409 } ], "others": 0.1686, "total": 1.3153, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.375643, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.650319 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.247813 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.085771 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.046914 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.040878 } ], "others_margin": 0.168646 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0775778591632843, "model_output": 0.0776, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1287 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": 0.0127, "total": 0.0776, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.434545 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.166801 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.132022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.074997 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.060747 } ], "others_margin": 0.17683 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8049604296684265, "model_output": 0.805, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2449 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0697 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0433 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0437 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0414 } ], "others": 0.1601, "total": 0.805, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.437093 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.144912 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.080582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.075247 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.0664 } ], "others_margin": 0.221573 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.063612461090088, "model_output": 7.0636, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1173 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0882 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0392 } ], "others": 0.1993, "total": 7.0636, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.11726 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.088212 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.041554 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.039331 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.039195 } ], "others_margin": 0.199249 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0121, quality 0.899)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1549, "goals": 0.111, "goal_rate": 0.111, "shots_on_target": 0.5081, "total_shots": 1.3313, "expected_assists": 0.0785, "key_pass": 0.8147, "rating": 7.0636, "minutes": 26.09, "total_pass": 9.0676, "accurate_pass": 6.5892, "duels_won": 2.8285, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1822, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7037, "crosses_total": 0.8445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.6885, "possession_lost": 8.239, "dispossessed": 1.2008, "duels_lost": 3.335, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6209, "won_contest": 1.2417, "ball_recovery": 0.5073, "challenges_lost": 0.3397, "fouls": 0.5579, "fouls_drawn": 1.302, "assists": 0.1425, "assist_rate": 0.1425, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2849, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.473777 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.136207 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.119909 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.107624 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.0903 } ], "others_margin": 0.09494 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6970176100730896, "model_output": 0.697, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2512 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0259 } ], "others": 0.1643, "total": 0.697, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.45132 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.108348 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.074945 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.054337 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.047555 } ], "others_margin": 0.268885 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.92694616317749, "model_output": 6.9269, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1034 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0866 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": 0.1034, "total": 6.9269, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.103352 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.086581 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.024301 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023987 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.018671 } ], "others_margin": 0.103424 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0195, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goals": 0.1429, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "shots_on_target": 0.363, "total_shots": 1.1874, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "key_pass": 0.7106, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 20.05, "total_pass": 9.4322, "accurate_pass": 8.6888, "duels_won": 1.9353, "total_long_balls": 0.1115, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1922, "crosses_total": 2.2662, "crosses_accurate": 0.5732, "touches": 17.4307, "possession_lost": 3.9833, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 1.7363, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 1.5415, "won_contest": 0.5732, "ball_recovery": 0.8409, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1329, "fouls_drawn": 0.6681, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4436, "tackles": 0.6941, "clearances": 0.1739, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0343, "big_chances_missed": 0.348, "xgot": 0.1122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7871, "total_progression": 25.2491, "progressive_carries": 1.9769, "shots_off_target": 0.8244 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0195, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.1 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1598, "goals": 0.191, "goal_rate": 0.191, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.077, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.1017, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 20.05, "minutes_scale": 1.3364, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1598, "goals": 0.191, "goal_rate": 0.191, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.077, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.1017, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1598, "goal_rate": 0.191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.077, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.1017, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.77 (squad xG sum 1.8704, xG scale 1.4820, xA scale 1.8511, team xA 1.80 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1485, "goal_rate": 0.191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1393, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.1017, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1487, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.772, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8704, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9733, "team_expected_assists": 1.8018, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.482, "xa_scale": 1.8511, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1598, "after": 0.1485 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.077, "after": 0.0894 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1485, "goal_rate": 0.191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1393, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.1017, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1487, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 303, "fifa_rank": 229.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1485, "goal_rate": 0.191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1393, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.1017, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1322, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1487, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1322, "goal_rate": 0.191, "scorer_weight": 0.1706, "squad_weight_total": 3.1623, "weight_share": 0.0539, "finishing_factor": 1.1487, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.6122, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.6122, "runner_up": "Yan Diomande", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3316 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.6122, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6861, "runner_up": "Yan Diomande", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3316 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1485, "goal_rate": 0.191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, 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"possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.107624 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.0903 } ], "others_margin": 0.09494 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6970176100730896, "model_output": 0.697, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2512 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0259 } ], "others": 0.1643, "total": 0.697, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.45132 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.108348 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.074945 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.054337 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.047555 } ], "others_margin": 0.268885 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.92694616317749, "model_output": 6.9269, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1034 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0866 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": 0.1034, "total": 6.9269, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.103352 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.086581 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.024301 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023987 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.018671 } ], "others_margin": 0.103424 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0195, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goals": 0.1429, "goal_rate": 0.1429, "shots_on_target": 0.363, "total_shots": 1.1874, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "key_pass": 0.7106, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 20.05, "total_pass": 9.4322, "accurate_pass": 8.6888, "duels_won": 1.9353, "total_long_balls": 0.1115, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1922, "crosses_total": 2.2662, "crosses_accurate": 0.5732, "touches": 17.4307, "possession_lost": 3.9833, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 1.7363, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 1.5415, "won_contest": 0.5732, "ball_recovery": 0.8409, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1329, "fouls_drawn": 0.6681, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4436, "tackles": 0.6941, "clearances": 0.1739, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0343, "big_chances_missed": 0.348, "xgot": 0.1122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7871, "total_progression": 25.2491, "progressive_carries": 1.9769, "shots_off_target": 0.8244 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0195, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.1 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1598, "goals": 0.191, "goal_rate": 0.191, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.077, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.1017, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 20.05, "minutes_scale": 1.3364, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1598, "goals": 0.191, "goal_rate": 0.191, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.077, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.1017, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1598, "goal_rate": 0.191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.077, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.1017, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.77 (squad xG sum 1.8704, xG scale 1.4820, xA scale 1.8511, team xA 1.80 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1485, "goal_rate": 0.191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1393, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.1017, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1487, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.772, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8704, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9733, "team_expected_assists": 1.8018, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.482, "xa_scale": 1.8511, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1598, "after": 0.1485 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.077, "after": 0.0894 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1485, "goal_rate": 0.191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1393, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.1017, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1487, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 303, "fifa_rank": 229.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1485, "goal_rate": 0.191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1393, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.1017, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1322, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1487, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1322, "goal_rate": 0.191, "scorer_weight": 0.1706, "squad_weight_total": 3.1623, "weight_share": 0.0539, "finishing_factor": 1.1487, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.6122, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.6122, "runner_up": "Yan Diomande", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3316 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.6122, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6861, "runner_up": "Yan Diomande", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3316 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1485, "goal_rate": 0.191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4851, "total_shots": 1.5868, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "key_pass": 0.9496, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1393, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.1017, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1322, 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"name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0159, "total": 0.0708, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.592534 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.409053 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.163147 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.083695 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.050361 } ], "others_margin": -0.20265 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1652059257030487, "model_output": 0.1652, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3384 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2641 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0328 } ], "others": -0.1086, "total": 0.1652, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.338405 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.264097 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041323 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034493 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.032832 } ], "others_margin": -0.108579 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.756659507751465, "model_output": 6.7567, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1051 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": 0.0195, "total": 6.7567, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.105093 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021576 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016944 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012317 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011078 } ], "others_margin": 0.019474 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4039, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assists": 0.0392, "assist_rate": 0.0392, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "shots_on_target": 0.0716, "total_shots": 0.167, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 18.06, "total_pass": 14.4223, "accurate_pass": 12.9534, "duels_won": 2.1072, "total_long_balls": 1.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7325, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.39, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5634, "crosses_total": 0.0085, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.883, "possession_lost": 1.9609, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.786, "aerial_won": 0.1753, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.2034, "tackles_won": 0.3676, "tackles": 0.8936, "clearances": 0.4675, "total_contest": 0.4298, "won_contest": 0.3733, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3795, "fouls_drawn": 0.6651, "blocks": 0.3765, "big_chances_created": 0.174, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5041, "total_progression": 24.0897, "progressive_carries": 0.6447, "shots_off_target": 0.0954 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0109, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0066)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4039, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0389, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0342, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "shots_on_target": 0.0711, "total_shots": 0.1659, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 18.06, "total_pass": 14.4223, "accurate_pass": 12.9534, "duels_won": 2.1072, "total_long_balls": 1.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7325, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.39, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5634, "crosses_total": 0.0084, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.883, "possession_lost": 1.9609, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.786, "aerial_won": 0.1753, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.2051, "tackles_won": 0.3672, "tackles": 0.8936, "clearances": 0.4675, "total_contest": 0.4298, "won_contest": 0.3733, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.38, "fouls_drawn": 0.6607, "blocks": 0.3765, "big_chances_created": 0.174, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5041, "total_progression": 24.0897, "progressive_carries": 0.6447, "shots_off_target": 0.0954 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0066, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2007, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.1 to 17.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assists": 0.037, "assist_rate": 0.037, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goals": 0.0325, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.16, "projection_minutes": 18.06, "minutes_scale": 0.9502, "appearance_probability": 0.594 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assists": 0.037, "assist_rate": 0.037, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goals": 0.0325, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.037, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.77 (squad xG sum 1.8704, xG scale 1.4820, xA scale 1.8511, team xA 1.80 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "assist_rate": 0.037, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2332, "creation_factor": 1.0199 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.772, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8704, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9733, "team_expected_assists": 1.8018, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.482, "xa_scale": 1.8511, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.594 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "assist_rate": 0.037, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2332, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 956, "fifa_rank": 578.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "assist_rate": 0.037, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0147, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2332, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0147, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "scorer_weight": 0.0184, "squad_weight_total": 3.1623, "weight_share": 0.0058, "finishing_factor": 1.2332, "appearance_weight": 0.594, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.6122, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.6122, "runner_up": "Yan Diomande", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3316 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.6122, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.6861, "runner_up": "Yan Diomande", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3316 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "assist_rate": 0.037, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.378, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0147, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0376, "finishing_factor": 1.2332, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0376, "assist_rate": 0.037, "provider_weight": 0.0396, "squad_weight_total": 1.7856, "weight_share": 0.0222, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "appearance_weight": 0.594, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yan Diomande", "weight": 0.3707, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3707, "runner_up": "Arda Güler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3371, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.77, "expected_assists": 1.8, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 517, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 7.04, "possession_estimated_pct": 54.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Aarón Martín", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 4900000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.461, "defenders": [ "Marc Cucurella" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.857, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.308, "xg_contribution": 0.0392, "xg_multiplier": 0.7468, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Cucurella", "role": "RB", "market_value": 62000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.692 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aarón Martín (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marc Cucurella in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €62M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.75 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Yassir Zabiri", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 22000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.65, "defenders": [ "Denzel Dumfries", "Dean Huijsen" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3698, "xg_multiplier": 0.8326, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Denzel Dumfries", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yassir Zabiri (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Denzel Dumfries and Dean Huijsen in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€22M vs €46M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.370 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Canales", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Denzel Dumfries", "Dean Huijsen" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.082, "xg_multiplier": 0.6611, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Denzel Dumfries", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Canales (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Denzel Dumfries and Dean Huijsen in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €46M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.66 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.082 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pablo García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Denzel Dumfries", "Dean Huijsen" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1005, "xg_multiplier": 0.7016, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Denzel Dumfries", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo García (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Denzel Dumfries and Dean Huijsen in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €46M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.70 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Iñigo Vicente", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Denzel Dumfries", "Dean Huijsen" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0553, "xg_multiplier": 0.6976, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Denzel Dumfries", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñigo Vicente (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Denzel Dumfries and Dean Huijsen in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €46M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.70 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Iván Martín", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.875, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0274, "xg_multiplier": 0.6456, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 73000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Martín (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Aurélien Tchouaméni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €73M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.65 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.027 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Matteo Prati", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.462, "defenders": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.875, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "xg_contribution": 0.0261, "xg_multiplier": 0.6912, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 73000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matteo Prati (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Aurélien Tchouaméni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €73M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.69 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.026 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Arda Güler", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Julen Agirrezabala" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.481, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.533, "xg_contribution": 0.208, "xg_multiplier": 1.166, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Julen Agirrezabala", "role": "GK", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.467 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arda Güler (LW) is slightly favored against Julen Agirrezabala in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €6M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.208 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Jude Bellingham", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 151000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Iván Martín", "Matteo Prati" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.45, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "xg_contribution": 0.1859, "xg_multiplier": 1.3403, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.529 }, { "player": "Matteo Prati", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.529 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jude Bellingham (CAM) has a clear attacking advantage against Iván Martín and Matteo Prati in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€151M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.34 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.186 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 212000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Alvaro Mantilla", "Jeanuël Belocian" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.497, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.355, "xg_contribution": 0.8703, "xg_multiplier": 1.2278, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alvaro Mantilla", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.645 }, { "player": "Jeanuël Belocian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.645 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Alvaro Mantilla and Jeanuël Belocian in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€212M vs €7M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.23 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.870 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Yan Diomande", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 132000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Alvaro Mantilla", "Jeanuël Belocian" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.497, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.354, "xg_contribution": 0.179, "xg_multiplier": 1.2269, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alvaro Mantilla", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.646 }, { "player": "Jeanuël Belocian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.646 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yan Diomande (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Alvaro Mantilla and Jeanuël Belocian in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€132M vs €7M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.23 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.179 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Iván Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.661, "xg_contribution": 0.0702, "xg_multiplier": 1.3544, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.339 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aurélien Tchouaméni (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Iván Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 66%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.35 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.070 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Bernardo Silva", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Iván Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.506, "xg_contribution": 0.0662, "xg_multiplier": 1.1261, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.494 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bernardo Silva (CDM) is slightly favored against Iván Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.13 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.454, "away_midfield_power": 0.852, "home_creative_power": 0.385, "away_creative_power": 0.868, "home_defensive_power": 0.385, "away_defensive_power": 0.775, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.347, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Aarón Martín", "Iván Martín", "Matteo Prati" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Bernardo Silva", "Arda Güler" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 45.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 54.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 3.2, "key_personal_duel": "Matteo Prati vs Jude Bellingham", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.943, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.061 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.924, "away_lambda": 2.772, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Aarón Martín": { "opponents": [ "Marc Cucurella", "Bernardo Silva" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yassir Zabiri": { "opponents": [ "Denzel Dumfries", "Dean Huijsen" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sergio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Denzel Dumfries", "Dean Huijsen" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pablo García": { "opponents": [ "Denzel Dumfries", "Dean Huijsen" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iñigo Vicente": { "opponents": [ "Denzel Dumfries", "Dean Huijsen" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iván Martín": { "opponents": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Jude Bellingham", "Bernardo Silva", "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matteo Prati": { "opponents": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Jude Bellingham" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julen Agirrezabala": { "opponents": [ "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alvaro Mantilla": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé", "Yan Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jeanuël Belocian": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé", "Yan Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ramón": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Marc Cucurella": { "opponents": [ "Aarón Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Denzel Dumfries": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Sergio Canales", "Pablo García", "Iñigo Vicente" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dean Huijsen": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Sergio Canales", "Pablo García", "Iñigo Vicente" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aurélien Tchouaméni": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín", "Matteo Prati" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Arda Güler": { "opponents": [ "Julen Agirrezabala", "Iván Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jude Bellingham": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín", "Matteo Prati" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Alvaro Mantilla", "Jeanuël Belocian" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yan Diomande": { "opponents": [ "Alvaro Mantilla", "Jeanuël Belocian" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bernardo Silva": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín", "Aarón Martín" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thibaut Courtois": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Pablo García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ibrahima Konaté": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~55% possession expected (Matteo Prati vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.70, Away: 1.58. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9548, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.993, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.052, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8866, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0028, "home_midfield_factor": 0.943, "away_midfield_factor": 1.061, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4864, "away_avg_quality": 0.8322, "avg_quality_gap": -0.3457, "squad_value_gap_log": -2.4387, "top5_value_gap_log": -2.345, "attack_value_gap_log": -2.4086, "elite_count_gap": -8, "combined_quality_gap": -0.7422, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.4082, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2375, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7003, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8627 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.943, "result": 0.8135 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8135 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.0916 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9269, "result": 1.0118 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9548, "result": 0.966 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8866, "result": 0.8565 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.052, "result": 0.9085 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9085, "result": 0.9085, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.7422, "factor": 0.7625, "pre": 0.9085, "result": 0.6927 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.6927 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 0.913 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 0.913 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.913, "result": 0.913, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.95, "pre": 0.913, "result": 0.8673, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9358, "pre": 0.8673, "result": 0.812 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 0.812 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.8773, "input_total": 4.349, "result": 0.7124 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 0.7124, "result": 0.712, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 0.924 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.5796, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.5222 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.061, "result": 1.6151 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.6151 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.6151 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.2586, "result": 2.0327 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.993, "result": 2.0184 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0028, "result": 2.0242 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 2.2042 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 2.2042, "result": 2.2042, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.7422, "factor": 1.4082, "pre": 2.2042, "result": 3.104 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 3.104 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.2118, "result": 3.3158 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 3.3158 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 3.3158, "result": 3.316, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.05, "pre": 3.316, "result": 3.4818, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1905, "pre": 3.4818, "result": 4.145 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 4.145 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.8773, "input_total": 4.349, "result": 3.6366 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 3.6366, "result": 3.637, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 2.772 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2118, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.7422, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1905, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9358, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.8673, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 3.4818, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.913, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 3.3158, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.924, "final_away_lambda": 2.772 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9269, "attack_index": 0.997, "defense_concede_index": 0.847, "form_multiplier": 0.96, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.51, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.28, "team_ppg": 1.2, "opponent_ppg": 2.01 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.2586, "attack_index": 1.298, "defense_concede_index": 1.328, "form_multiplier": 1.04, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.96, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.01, "team_ppg": 2.01, "opponent_ppg": 1.2 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Racing Club vs Real Madrid. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.913, Away 3.316). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 0.924, Away 2.772 (most likely score 0-2).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 0.924, "away_lambda": 2.772, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.913, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 3.316 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-01T14:31:38Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }