{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261101", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0949, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0949, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0689, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Athletic Club", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2379, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1105 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0949 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0867 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0756 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0689 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0513, "0-1": 0.0628, "0-2": 0.0398, "0-3": 0.0167, "0-4": 0.0052, "0-5": 0.0013, "1-0": 0.0867, "1-1": 0.1105, "1-2": 0.0689, "1-3": 0.0288, "1-4": 0.009, "1-5": 0.0023, "2-0": 0.0756, "2-1": 0.0949, "2-2": 0.0596, "2-3": 0.0249, "2-4": 0.0078, "2-5": 0.002, "3-0": 0.0436, "3-1": 0.0547, "3-2": 0.0343, "3-3": 0.0144, "3-4": 0.0045, "3-5": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0188, "4-1": 0.0236, "4-2": 0.0148, "4-3": 0.0062, "4-4": 0.0019, "5-0": 0.0065, "5-1": 0.0082, "5-2": 0.0051, "5-3": 0.0021, "5-4": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0019, "6-1": 0.0024, "6-2": 0.0015, "6-3": 0.0006, "7-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4846, "draw": 0.2379, "away_win": 0.2775 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5732, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4268, "btts_yes": 0.5888, "btts_no": 0.4112, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2851, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1775 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.88, "MCR": 6.82, "ATR": 6.85, "GK": 7.0 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.81, "MCR": 6.97, "ATR": 7.07, "GK": 7.12 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Athletic Club 4W-2D-4L vs Real Sociedad over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Nico Williams, Iñaki Williams, Mikel Oyarzabal", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mikel Jauregizar vs Jon Gorrotxategi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.80, Away: 0.91. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.74, "home_lambda": 1.729, "away_lambda": 1.255, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1105, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4846, "draw": 0.2379, "away_win": 0.2775 }, "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4846, "fair_spread": 0.474, "fair_total": 2.984, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.729, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.255, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5732, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5888, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2851, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1775, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Iñaki Williams (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.4461, "probability": 0.3599, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.2835, "probability": 0.2469, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Yuri Berchiche (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.2511, "probability": 0.2221, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Carlos Soler (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.1607, "probability": 0.1485, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.984, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 948, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.1, "possession_home_pct": 49.8, "possession_away_pct": 50.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4846, "script": "Athletic Club is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.47 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Real Sociedad must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Athletic Club lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Sociedad chance creation leans on Mikel Oyarzabal against Aymeric Laporte, Dani Vivian in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Athletic Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Nico Williams, Iñaki Williams; bench watchlist: Beñat Prados, Robert Navarro.", "Real Sociedad: starters carry the main goal usage through Mikel Oyarzabal; bench watchlist: Takefusa Kubo, Orri Óskarsson, Arsen Zakharyan.", "Assist usage should flow through Álex Berenguer, Gonçalo Guedes; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Athletic Club tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Real Sociedad is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Athletic Club.", "Real Sociedad wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Athletic Club": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Unai Simón": { "player_id": 797291, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 189, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0287, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 16, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 41, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.1424, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 9.874, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0708, "shots_faced": 11.9, "expected_saves": 2.91, "high_pressure_saves": 1.0, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal, Gonçalo Guedes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421081.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 48, "rating": 7.1, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.2109 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 17122851.0, "match_date": "2026-10-21", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416322.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, 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"season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 22, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.3212 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.0, 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"LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083656.0, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 12, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.6162 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 323, "combined_rank_score": 218.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 278.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 158.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9961, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Unai Simón", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bryan Mbeumo", "ranking": 318 }, { "player_name": "Sandzhar Kuvvatov", "ranking": 319 }, { "player_name": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "ranking": 320 }, { "player_name": "Mario Rivas", "ranking": 321 }, { "player_name": "Nico Paz", "ranking": 322 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aleksandre Andronikashvili", "ranking": 324 }, { "player_name": "Javier Correa", "ranking": 325 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Santander", "ranking": 326 }, { "player_name": "Diego Murillo", "ranking": 327 }, { "player_name": "Boubacar Kamara", "ranking": 328 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 46, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 46, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.004, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 46 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Athletic Club, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.987, "goals_prevented": -0.0286, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 83.96, "total_pass": 30.0298, "accurate_pass": 20.4369, "total_long_balls": 15.4681, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2313, "touches": 40.8859, "clearances": 0.8839, "ball_recovery": 9.7558, "high_claims": 1.1981, "punches": 0.1418, "aerial_won": 0.2051, "sweeper_actions": 2.4028, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2005, "saves_inside_box": 1.9575, "possession_lost": 9.8347, "duels_won": 0.318, "duels_lost": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.0566, 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"others_margin": 0.001531 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.028604421764612198, "model_output": -0.0286, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.017 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": -0.0286, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.025788 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.025151 }, { "name": 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"totalPass", "margin": -0.019104 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.017135 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011208 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010583 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.009817 } ], "others_margin": 0.022961 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 46, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0040, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9989, "goals_prevented": -0.0287, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 83.96, "total_pass": 30.1499, "accurate_pass": 20.5186, "total_long_balls": 15.53, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2562, "touches": 41.0494, "clearances": 0.8874, "ball_recovery": 9.7948, "high_claims": 1.2029, "punches": 0.1424, "aerial_won": 0.2059, "sweeper_actions": 2.4124, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2093, "saves_inside_box": 1.9653, "possession_lost": 9.874, "duels_won": 0.3193, "duels_lost": 0.1572, "total_contest": 0.0568, "won_contest": 0.0568, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0571, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.445 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0127)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0082, "goals_prevented": -0.0287, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 83.96, "total_pass": 30.1499, "accurate_pass": 20.5186, "total_long_balls": 15.53, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2562, "touches": 41.0494, "clearances": 0.8874, "ball_recovery": 9.7948, "high_claims": 1.2029, "punches": 0.1424, "aerial_won": 0.2059, "sweeper_actions": 2.4124, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2093, "saves_inside_box": 1.9653, "possession_lost": 9.874, "duels_won": 0.3193, "duels_lost": 0.1572, "total_contest": 0.0568, "won_contest": 0.0568, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0564, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.445 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0127, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9329, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9989, "after": 3.0082 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.0082, "goals_prevented": -0.0287, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 83.96, "total_pass": 30.1499, "accurate_pass": 20.5186, "total_long_balls": 15.53, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2562, "touches": 41.0494, "clearances": 0.8874, "ball_recovery": 9.7948, "high_claims": 1.2029, "punches": 0.1424, "aerial_won": 0.2059, "sweeper_actions": 2.4124, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2093, "saves_inside_box": 1.9653, "possession_lost": 9.874, "duels_won": 0.3193, "duels_lost": 0.1572, "total_contest": 0.0568, "won_contest": 0.0568, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0564, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.445 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0082, "goals_prevented": -0.0287, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 83.96, "total_pass": 30.1499, "accurate_pass": 20.5186, "total_long_balls": 15.53, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2562, "touches": 41.0494, "clearances": 0.8874, "ball_recovery": 9.7948, "high_claims": 1.2029, "punches": 0.1424, "aerial_won": 0.2059, "sweeper_actions": 2.4124, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2093, "saves_inside_box": 1.9653, "possession_lost": 9.874, "duels_won": 0.3193, "duels_lost": 0.1572, "total_contest": 0.0568, "won_contest": 0.0568, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0564, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.445, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0708, "shots_faced": 10.2, "expected_saves": 2.5, "high_pressure_saves": 0.86, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal, Gonçalo Guedes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal, Gonçalo Guedes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.0708 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.0082, "goals_prevented": -0.0287, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 83.96, "total_pass": 30.1499, "accurate_pass": 20.5186, "total_long_balls": 15.53, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2562, "touches": 41.0494, "clearances": 0.8874, "ball_recovery": 9.7948, "high_claims": 1.2029, "punches": 0.1424, "aerial_won": 0.2059, "sweeper_actions": 2.4124, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2093, "saves_inside_box": 1.9653, "possession_lost": 9.874, "duels_won": 0.3193, "duels_lost": 0.1572, "total_contest": 0.0568, "won_contest": 0.0568, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0564, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.445, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0708, "shots_faced": 10.2, "expected_saves": 2.5, "high_pressure_saves": 0.86, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal, Gonçalo Guedes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.0016, xG scale 1.7263, xA scale 1.7263, team xA 1.22 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0082, "goals_prevented": -0.0287, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 83.96, "total_pass": 30.1499, "accurate_pass": 20.5186, "total_long_balls": 15.53, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2562, "touches": 41.0494, "clearances": 0.8874, "ball_recovery": 9.7948, "high_claims": 1.2029, "punches": 0.1424, "aerial_won": 0.2059, "sweeper_actions": 2.4124, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2093, "saves_inside_box": 1.9653, "possession_lost": 9.874, "duels_won": 0.3193, "duels_lost": 0.1572, "total_contest": 0.0568, "won_contest": 0.0568, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0564, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.445, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0708, "shots_faced": 11.9, "expected_saves": 2.91, "high_pressure_saves": 1.0, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal, Gonçalo Guedes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.729, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0016, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7085, "team_expected_assists": 1.2231, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7074, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.7263, "xa_scale": 1.7263, "opponent_lambda": 1.255, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 10.2, "after": 11.9 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.5, "after": 2.91 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.86, "after": 1.0 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0082, "goals_prevented": -0.0287, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 83.96, "total_pass": 30.1499, "accurate_pass": 20.5186, "total_long_balls": 15.53, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2562, "touches": 41.0494, "clearances": 0.8874, "ball_recovery": 9.7948, "high_claims": 1.2029, "punches": 0.1424, "aerial_won": 0.2059, "sweeper_actions": 2.4124, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2093, "saves_inside_box": 1.9653, "possession_lost": 9.874, "duels_won": 0.3193, "duels_lost": 0.1572, "total_contest": 0.0568, "won_contest": 0.0568, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0564, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.445, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0708, "shots_faced": 11.9, "expected_saves": 2.91, "high_pressure_saves": 1.0, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal, Gonçalo Guedes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.9109, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñaki Williams", "weight": 0.5576, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5576, "runner_up": "Nico Williams", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.305 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Nico Williams", "weight": 0.305, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.305, "runner_up": "Álex Berenguer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2692 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0082, "goals_prevented": -0.0287, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 83.96, "total_pass": 30.1499, "accurate_pass": 20.5186, "total_long_balls": 15.53, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2562, "touches": 41.0494, "clearances": 0.8874, "ball_recovery": 9.7948, "high_claims": 1.2029, "punches": 0.1424, 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-0.095 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0529 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0298, "total": 0.4196, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.094968 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052869 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015566 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.012984 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01289 } ], "others_margin": -0.029857 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.723052024841309, "model_output": 6.7231, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0225, "total": 6.7231, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015995 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01548 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.008205 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006772 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.006666 } ], "others_margin": -0.022611 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7792, "tackles": 1.7193, "tackles_won": 1.0874, "clearances": 2.0882, "aerial_won": 0.8239, "total_shots": 0.4187, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 79.78, "total_pass": 36.0225, "accurate_pass": 30.4691, "duels_won": 5.1059, "total_long_balls": 1.6522, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1062, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1039, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4223, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9186, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0468, "crosses_total": 1.8004, "crosses_accurate": 0.6288, "touches": 53.0539, "possession_lost": 8.8241, "dispossessed": 0.2568, "duels_lost": 3.403, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.4477, "won_contest": 0.3027, "ball_recovery": 2.9876, "challenges_lost": 0.9058, "fouls": 1.1995, "fouls_drawn": 2.3595, "blocks": 0.3377, "goals": 0.0787, "goal_rate": 0.0787, "assists": 0.0306, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "ball_carries": 13.4169, "total_progression": 45.1896, "progressive_carries": 0.7943, "key_pass": 0.7949, "shots_off_target": 0.2996 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3400000, "quality_factor": 0.4424, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0060)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.779, "tackles": 1.7193, "tackles_won": 1.0808, "clearances": 2.0882, "aerial_won": 0.8239, "total_shots": 0.4162, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 79.78, "total_pass": 36.0225, "accurate_pass": 30.4691, "duels_won": 5.1059, "total_long_balls": 1.6522, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1062, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1039, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4223, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9186, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0468, "crosses_total": 1.7984, "crosses_accurate": 0.6288, "touches": 53.0539, "possession_lost": 8.8241, "dispossessed": 0.2568, "duels_lost": 3.403, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.4477, "won_contest": 0.3027, "ball_recovery": 2.9876, "challenges_lost": 0.9058, "fouls": 1.1967, "fouls_drawn": 2.3631, "blocks": 0.3377, "goals": 0.0782, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "assists": 0.0304, "assist_rate": 0.0304, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "shots_on_target": 0.1183, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "ball_carries": 13.4169, "total_progression": 45.1896, "progressive_carries": 0.7943, "key_pass": 0.7949, "shots_off_target": 0.2996 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.006, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8864, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0874, "after": 1.0808 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.779, "tackles": 1.7193, "tackles_won": 1.0808, "clearances": 2.0882, "aerial_won": 0.8239, "total_shots": 0.4179, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 79.78, "total_pass": 36.0225, "accurate_pass": 30.4691, "duels_won": 5.1059, "total_long_balls": 1.6522, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1062, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1039, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4223, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9186, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0468, "crosses_total": 1.7984, "crosses_accurate": 0.6288, "touches": 53.0539, "possession_lost": 8.8241, "dispossessed": 0.2568, "duels_lost": 3.403, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.4477, "won_contest": 0.3027, "ball_recovery": 2.9876, "challenges_lost": 0.9058, "fouls": 1.1967, "fouls_drawn": 2.3631, "blocks": 0.3377, "goals": 0.0782, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "assists": 0.0304, "assist_rate": 0.0304, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "shots_on_target": 0.1183, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "ball_carries": 13.4169, "total_progression": 45.1896, "progressive_carries": 0.7943, "key_pass": 0.7949, "shots_off_target": 0.2996 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.779, "tackles": 1.7193, "tackles_won": 1.0808, "clearances": 2.0882, "aerial_won": 0.8239, "total_shots": 0.4179, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 79.78, "total_pass": 36.0225, "accurate_pass": 30.4691, "duels_won": 5.1059, "total_long_balls": 1.6522, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1062, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1039, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4223, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9186, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0468, "crosses_total": 1.7984, "crosses_accurate": 0.6288, "touches": 53.0539, "possession_lost": 8.8241, "dispossessed": 0.2568, "duels_lost": 3.403, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.4477, "won_contest": 0.3027, "ball_recovery": 2.9876, "challenges_lost": 0.9058, "fouls": 1.1967, "fouls_drawn": 2.3631, "blocks": 0.3377, "goals": 0.0782, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "assists": 0.0304, "assist_rate": 0.0304, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "shots_on_target": 0.1183, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "ball_carries": 13.4169, "total_progression": 45.1896, "progressive_carries": 0.7943, "key_pass": 0.7949, "shots_off_target": 0.2996, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.779, "tackles": 1.7193, "tackles_won": 1.0808, "clearances": 2.0882, "aerial_won": 0.8239, "total_shots": 0.4179, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 79.78, "total_pass": 36.0225, "accurate_pass": 30.4691, "duels_won": 5.1059, "total_long_balls": 1.6522, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1062, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1039, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4223, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9186, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0468, "crosses_total": 1.7984, "crosses_accurate": 0.6288, "touches": 53.0539, "possession_lost": 8.8241, "dispossessed": 0.2568, "duels_lost": 3.403, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.4477, "won_contest": 0.3027, "ball_recovery": 2.9876, "challenges_lost": 0.9058, "fouls": 1.1967, "fouls_drawn": 2.3631, "blocks": 0.3377, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0304, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "shots_on_target": 0.1183, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "ball_carries": 13.4169, "total_progression": 45.1896, "progressive_carries": 0.7943, "key_pass": 0.7949, "shots_off_target": 0.2996, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.0016, xG scale 1.7263, xA scale 1.7263, team xA 1.22 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.779, "tackles": 1.7193, "tackles_won": 1.0808, "clearances": 2.0882, "aerial_won": 0.8239, "total_shots": 0.4179, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 79.78, "total_pass": 36.0225, "accurate_pass": 30.4691, "duels_won": 5.1059, "total_long_balls": 1.6522, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1062, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1039, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4223, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9186, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0468, "crosses_total": 1.7984, "crosses_accurate": 0.6288, "touches": 53.0539, "possession_lost": 8.8241, "dispossessed": 0.2568, "duels_lost": 3.403, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.4477, "won_contest": 0.3027, "ball_recovery": 2.9876, "challenges_lost": 0.9058, "fouls": 1.1967, "fouls_drawn": 2.3631, "blocks": 0.3377, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0304, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "shots_on_target": 0.1183, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0406, "ball_carries": 13.4169, "total_progression": 45.1896, "progressive_carries": 0.7943, "key_pass": 0.7949, "shots_off_target": 0.2996, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.729, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0016, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7085, "team_expected_assists": 1.2231, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7074, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.7263, "xa_scale": 1.7263, "opponent_lambda": 1.255, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0296, "after": 0.0511 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0568, "after": 0.0981 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.779, "tackles": 1.7193, "tackles_won": 1.0808, "clearances": 2.0882, "aerial_won": 0.8239, "total_shots": 0.4179, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 79.78, "total_pass": 36.0225, "accurate_pass": 30.4691, "duels_won": 5.1059, "total_long_balls": 1.6522, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1062, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1039, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4223, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9186, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0468, "crosses_total": 1.7984, "crosses_accurate": 0.6288, "touches": 53.0539, "possession_lost": 8.8241, "dispossessed": 0.2568, "duels_lost": 3.403, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.4477, "won_contest": 0.3027, "ball_recovery": 2.9876, "challenges_lost": 0.9058, "fouls": 1.1967, "fouls_drawn": 2.3631, "blocks": 0.3377, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0304, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "shots_on_target": 0.1183, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0406, "ball_carries": 13.4169, "total_progression": 45.1896, "progressive_carries": 0.7943, "key_pass": 0.7949, "shots_off_target": 0.2996, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3590, "fifa_rank": 2420.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.779, "tackles": 1.7193, "tackles_won": 1.0808, "clearances": 2.0882, "aerial_won": 0.8239, "total_shots": 0.4179, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 79.78, "total_pass": 36.0225, "accurate_pass": 30.4691, "duels_won": 5.1059, "total_long_balls": 1.6522, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1062, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1039, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4223, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9186, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0468, "crosses_total": 1.7984, "crosses_accurate": 0.6288, "touches": 53.0539, "possession_lost": 8.8241, "dispossessed": 0.2568, "duels_lost": 3.403, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.4477, "won_contest": 0.3027, "ball_recovery": 2.9876, "challenges_lost": 0.9058, "fouls": 1.1967, "fouls_drawn": 2.3631, "blocks": 0.3377, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0304, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "shots_on_target": 0.1183, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0406, "ball_carries": 13.4169, "total_progression": 45.1896, "progressive_carries": 0.7943, "key_pass": 0.7949, "shots_off_target": 0.2996, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0498, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0498, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "scorer_weight": 0.0639, "squad_weight_total": 1.9109, "weight_share": 0.0334, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñaki Williams", "weight": 0.5576, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5576, "runner_up": "Nico Williams", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.305 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Nico Williams", "weight": 0.305, "already": 0, 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"margin": 0.471652 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.099567 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.038651 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.026259 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.020149 } ], "others_margin": 0.10062 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.042873859405518, "model_output": 7.0429, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1222 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0626 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0597 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0183 } ], "others": -0.0474, "total": 7.0429, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.122172 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.062637 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.059664 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.028744 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.01827 } ], "others_margin": -0.047394 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8525, "tackles": 1.5508, "tackles_won": 1.0031, "clearances": 2.788, "aerial_won": 1.0705, "total_shots": 1.2353, "rating": 7.0429, "minutes": 77.9, "total_pass": 56.1253, "accurate_pass": 51.0319, "duels_won": 3.558, "total_long_balls": 3.9472, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2671, "total_own_half_passes": 23.3761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3286, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.7493, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7034, "crosses_total": 2.9216, "crosses_accurate": 0.6612, "touches": 76.5457, "possession_lost": 9.3908, "dispossessed": 0.1933, "duels_lost": 1.6605, "aerial_lost": 0.5476, "total_contest": 0.4128, "won_contest": 0.19, "ball_recovery": 5.1219, "challenges_lost": 0.2622, "fouls": 0.656, "fouls_drawn": 0.478, "blocks": 0.1664, "goals": 0.0, 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"others": -0.0215, "total": 6.8176, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.040398 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031886 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010895 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.008206 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007139 } ], "others_margin": -0.02151 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0057, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assists": 0.0564, "assist_rate": 0.0564, "expected_goals": 0.0686, "goals": 0.0557, "goal_rate": 0.0557, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.964, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.437, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.65, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0022, "tackles_won": 1.1579, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 0.5219, "total_contest": 0.8587, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.7095, "fouls": 1.7462, "fouls_drawn": 0.5852, "blocks": 0.0439, "big_chances_created": 0.0011, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0481, "ball_carries": 10.47, "total_progression": 27.8801, "progressive_carries": 0.3543, "shots_off_target": 0.6842 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0057, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0050)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assists": 0.0561, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "expected_goals": 0.0686, "goals": 0.0554, "goal_rate": 0.0554, "shots_on_target": 0.2784, "total_shots": 0.9592, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.65, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0078, "tackles_won": 1.1557, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 0.5219, "total_contest": 0.8587, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.7095, "fouls": 1.7446, "fouls_drawn": 0.5823, "blocks": 0.0439, "big_chances_created": 0.0011, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0481, "ball_carries": 10.47, "total_progression": 27.8801, "progressive_carries": 0.3543, "shots_off_target": 0.6842 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.005, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7826, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.437, "after": 1.4299 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0022, "after": 1.0078 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assists": 0.0561, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "expected_goals": 0.0686, "goals": 0.0554, "goal_rate": 0.0554, "shots_on_target": 0.2784, "total_shots": 0.9626, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.65, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0078, "tackles_won": 1.1557, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 0.5219, "total_contest": 0.8587, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.7095, "fouls": 1.7446, "fouls_drawn": 0.5823, "blocks": 0.0439, "big_chances_created": 0.0011, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0481, "ball_carries": 10.47, "total_progression": 27.8801, "progressive_carries": 0.3543, "shots_off_target": 0.6842 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assists": 0.0561, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "expected_goals": 0.0755, "goals": 0.061, "goal_rate": 0.061, "shots_on_target": 0.3066, "total_shots": 1.0601, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0078, "tackles_won": 1.1557, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 0.5219, "total_contest": 0.8587, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.7095, "fouls": 1.7446, "fouls_drawn": 0.5823, "blocks": 0.0439, "big_chances_created": 0.0011, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.053, "ball_carries": 10.47, "total_progression": 27.8801, "progressive_carries": 0.3543, "shots_off_target": 0.7535, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1013, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.489, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Turrientes", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Turrientes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Beñat Turrientes", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.489, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1013, "skill_edge": 0.0769, "height_edge": -0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.7219, "defender_skill": 0.551, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Beñat Turrientes", "market_value": 10600000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.551 } ], "xg_override": 0.0755 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.65, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9626, "after": 1.0601 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6842, "after": 0.7535 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2784, "after": 0.3066 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0686, "after": 0.0755 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0554, "after": 0.061 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0755, "goal_rate": 0.061, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3066, "total_shots": 1.0601, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0078, "tackles_won": 1.1557, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 0.5219, "total_contest": 0.8587, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.7095, "fouls": 1.7446, "fouls_drawn": 0.5823, "blocks": 0.0439, "big_chances_created": 0.0011, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.053, "ball_carries": 10.47, "total_progression": 27.8801, "progressive_carries": 0.3543, "shots_off_target": 0.7535, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1013, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.489, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Turrientes", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Turrientes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.0016, xG scale 1.7263, xA scale 1.7263, team xA 1.22 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.061, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3066, "total_shots": 1.0601, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0078, "tackles_won": 1.1557, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 0.5219, "total_contest": 0.8587, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.7095, "fouls": 1.7446, "fouls_drawn": 0.5823, "blocks": 0.0439, "big_chances_created": 0.0011, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0915, "ball_carries": 10.47, "total_progression": 27.8801, "progressive_carries": 0.3543, "shots_off_target": 0.7535, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1013, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.489, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Turrientes", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Turrientes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8845, "creation_factor": 1.0291 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.729, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0016, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7085, "team_expected_assists": 1.2231, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7074, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.7263, "xa_scale": 1.7263, "opponent_lambda": 1.255, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0755, "after": 0.1303 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0531, "after": 0.0917 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.061, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3066, "total_shots": 1.0601, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0078, "tackles_won": 1.1557, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 0.5219, "total_contest": 0.8587, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.7095, "fouls": 1.7446, "fouls_drawn": 0.5823, "blocks": 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915.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.061, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3066, "total_shots": 1.0601, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0078, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1585, "goals": 0.1863, "goal_rate": 0.1863, "shots_on_target": 0.5724, "total_shots": 2.005, "expected_assists": 0.1086, "key_pass": 1.0901, "rating": 7.0014, "minutes": 71.41, "total_pass": 25.8389, "accurate_pass": 19.3003, "duels_won": 4.2649, "total_long_balls": 0.6471, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3238, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7061, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6362, "crosses_total": 3.6894, "crosses_accurate": 0.7024, "touches": 47.1899, "possession_lost": 16.4346, "dispossessed": 0.7892, "duels_lost": 5.7911, "aerial_lost": 0.1969, "total_contest": 4.6568, "won_contest": 1.8062, "ball_recovery": 3.6413, "challenges_lost": 0.6259, "fouls": 1.4097, "fouls_drawn": 0.9107, "assists": 0.0728, "assist_rate": 0.0728, "interceptions": 0.4842, 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whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1568, "goal_rate": 0.183, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5624, "total_shots": 1.9877, "expected_assists": 0.1086, "key_pass": 1.0901, "rating": 7.0014, "minutes": 71.41, "total_pass": 25.8389, "accurate_pass": 19.3003, "duels_won": 4.2649, "total_long_balls": 0.6471, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3238, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7061, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6362, "crosses_total": 3.6913, "crosses_accurate": 0.7024, "touches": 47.1899, "possession_lost": 16.4346, "dispossessed": 0.7892, "duels_lost": 5.7911, "aerial_lost": 0.1969, "total_contest": 4.6568, "won_contest": 1.8062, "ball_recovery": 3.6413, "challenges_lost": 0.6259, "fouls": 1.4001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9045, "assist_rate": 0.0723, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4854, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 0.9922, "clearances": 0.5358, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1805, "big_chances_missed": 0.0572, "xgot": 0.1526, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 18.4951, "total_progression": 111.4131, "progressive_carries": 5.4872, "shots_off_target": 1.4173, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9893, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.193, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mamadou Sarr, Jon Martin", "opponent_faced": "Mamadou Sarr, Jon Martin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.0016, xG scale 1.7263, xA scale 1.7263, team xA 1.22 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2707, "goal_rate": 0.183, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5624, "total_shots": 1.9877, "expected_assists": 0.1875, "key_pass": 1.0901, "rating": 7.0014, "minutes": 71.41, "total_pass": 25.8389, "accurate_pass": 19.3003, "duels_won": 4.2649, "total_long_balls": 0.6471, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3238, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7061, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6362, "crosses_total": 3.6913, "crosses_accurate": 0.7024, "touches": 47.1899, "possession_lost": 16.4346, "dispossessed": 0.7892, "duels_lost": 5.7911, "aerial_lost": 0.1969, "total_contest": 4.6568, "won_contest": 1.8062, "ball_recovery": 3.6413, "challenges_lost": 0.6259, "fouls": 1.4001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9045, "assist_rate": 0.0723, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4854, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 0.9922, "clearances": 0.5358, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1805, "big_chances_missed": 0.0572, "xgot": 0.2634, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 18.4951, "total_progression": 111.4131, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2707, "goal_rate": 0.183, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.5624, "total_shots": 1.9877, "expected_assists": 0.1875, "key_pass": 1.0901, "rating": 7.0014, "minutes": 71.41, "total_pass": 25.8389, "accurate_pass": 19.3003, "duels_won": 4.2649, "total_long_balls": 0.6471, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3238, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7061, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6362, "crosses_total": 3.6913, "crosses_accurate": 0.7024, "touches": 47.1899, "possession_lost": 16.4346, "dispossessed": 0.7892, "duels_lost": 5.7911, "aerial_lost": 0.1969, "total_contest": 4.6568, "won_contest": 1.8062, "ball_recovery": 3.6413, "challenges_lost": 0.6259, "fouls": 1.4001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9045, "assist_rate": 0.0723, 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"bench_players": { "Alex Padilla": { "player_id": 1155116, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 190, "market_value": 3100000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0035, "rating": 7.0766, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "touches": 6, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083731.0, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -1.8191 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5722, "combined_rank_score": 3995.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1018.0, "sofascore_rating": 5.1, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 6972.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0766, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alex Padilla", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Elmin Rastoder", "ranking": 5717 }, { "player_name": "Max Bird", "ranking": 5718 }, { "player_name": "Rob Atkinson", "ranking": 5719 }, { "player_name": "Tariq Lamptey", "ranking": 5720 }, { "player_name": "Liberato Cacace", "ranking": 5721 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jordan Beyer", "ranking": 5723 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Wood", "ranking": 5724 }, { "player_name": "Tomoki Iwata", "ranking": 5725 }, { "player_name": "Harrison Burrows", "ranking": 5726 }, { "player_name": "Pelle Mattsson", "ranking": 5727 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.397143516617772, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10896106893717145, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9834, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (1 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.11); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8738, "goals_prevented": 0.0234, "rating": 7.0766, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 31.0, "accurate_pass": 11.0, "total_long_balls": 27.0, "accurate_long_balls": 8.0, "touches": 42.0, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 7.0, "high_claims": 1.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 2.0, "possession_lost": 21.0, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-01T11:25:22.869020+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 5.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 3.0, "accurateLongBalls": 8.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 21.0, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.8, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.0, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8738391399383545, "model_output": 2.8738, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1736 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0468 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.046 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0247 } ], "others": -0.0353, "total": 2.8738, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061257 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016876 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.016336 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.015082 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.008522 } ], "others_margin": -0.012186 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.023359384387731552, "model_output": 0.0234, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0344 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0204 } ], "others": 0.0597, "total": 0.0234, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.03801 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.034448 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.032649 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.023839 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.020409 } ], "others_margin": 0.059684 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.076589584350586, "model_output": 7.0766, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0164 } ], "others": 0.007, "total": 7.0766, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.031265 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025919 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.023184 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9834, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8261, "goals_prevented": 0.023, "rating": 7.0766, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 30.4854, "accurate_pass": 10.8174, "total_long_balls": 26.5518, "accurate_long_balls": 7.8672, "touches": 41.3028, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.8838, "high_claims": 0.9834, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 1.9668, "possession_lost": 20.6514, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.917, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9502 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9834, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.436, "goals_prevented": 0.0035, "rating": 7.0766, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.4, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1543, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.436, "goals_prevented": 0.0035, "rating": 7.0766, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.436, "goals_prevented": 0.0035, "rating": 7.0766, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1702, "combined_rank_score": 690.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 138.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.35, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1243.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8616, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aitor Paredes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vicente Álvarez", "ranking": 1697 }, { "player_name": "Matías Cavalleri", "ranking": 1698 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Theate", "ranking": 1699 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Kakhramonov", "ranking": 1700 }, { "player_name": "Wilson Odobert", "ranking": 1701 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Danny Welbeck", "ranking": 1703 }, { "player_name": "Angeliño", "ranking": 1704 }, { "player_name": "Park Kyu-Min", "ranking": 1705 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Vidal", "ranking": 1706 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Adams", "ranking": 1707 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 26, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.771804972390745, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.221, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9992, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (26 historical appearances) to 13.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.22); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, 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0.0795, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0675, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0574, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0488, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0415, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-15", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0353, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.5577, "aerialWon": 1.4425, "totalClearance_p90": 5.2978, "totalTackle": 0.8373, "totalTackle_p90": 1.0959 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.34365859627723694, "model_output": 0.3437, "scale": "count per 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1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.929432 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.088688 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.086255 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.04561 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.044189 } ], "others_margin": -0.025149 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6728231310844421, "model_output": 0.6728, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7308 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": 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"totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0016, "total": 0.2231, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.19508 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.081195 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.024682 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015196 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010342 } ], "others_margin": -0.001711 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.861647129058838, "model_output": 6.8616, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0402 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": 0.0262, "total": 6.8616, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.040243 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.027016 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019135 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.018781 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011872 } ], "others_margin": 0.026304 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9681, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0032, "fouls_drawn": 0.001, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.001, "goal_rate": 0.001, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "shots_on_target": 0.001, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6272, "total_progression": 6.2775, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1555, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.221, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2376, "tackles": 0.2813, "tackles_won": 0.1771, "clearances": 1.1945, "aerial_won": 0.469, "total_shots": 0.1566, "rating": 6.8616, "minutes": 13.77, "total_pass": 9.1775, "accurate_pass": 8.6762, "duels_won": 0.6564, "total_long_balls": 1.8894, "accurate_long_balls": 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0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7173 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0668 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0462 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0261 } ], "others": 0.0172, "total": 0.545, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.741701 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.108079 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.082095 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.072412 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.050692 } ], "others_margin": 0.032114 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18818002939224243, "model_output": 0.1882, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1803 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0956 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 0.1882, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.180343 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.095634 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016363 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013902 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.010355 } ], "others_margin": -0.024986 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.700150012969971, "model_output": 6.7002, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 6.7001, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.021149 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.016587 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016242 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014077 } ], "others_margin": -0.007484 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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1.7855 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.6 to 13.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2437, "tackles": 0.3221, "tackles_won": 0.1847, "clearances": 0.3587, "aerial_won": 0.2704, "total_shots": 0.0934, "rating": 6.7002, "minutes": 13.69, "total_pass": 9.3846, "accurate_pass": 8.1739, "duels_won": 0.9001, "total_long_balls": 0.2693, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1369, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1657, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9033, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2189, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2706, "crosses_total": 0.8872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1503, "touches": 14.1466, "possession_lost": 2.9989, "dispossessed": 0.2242, "duels_lost": 0.5473, "aerial_lost": 0.1542, "total_contest": 0.3693, "won_contest": 0.1103, "ball_recovery": 0.3818, "challenges_lost": 0.1025, "fouls": 0.0507, "fouls_drawn": 0.0621, "blocks": 0.0139, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0013, "expected_assists": 0.022, "shots_on_target": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.0232, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 4.5119, "total_progression": 27.8738, "progressive_carries": 0.472, "key_pass": 0.2985, "shots_off_target": 0.0229, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.219, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.69, "projection_minutes": 27.56, "minutes_scale": 0.4969, "appearance_probability": 0.219 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2437, "tackles": 0.3221, "tackles_won": 0.1847, "clearances": 0.3587, "aerial_won": 0.2704, "total_shots": 0.0934, "rating": 6.7002, "minutes": 13.69, "total_pass": 9.3846, "accurate_pass": 8.1739, "duels_won": 0.9001, "total_long_balls": 0.2693, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1369, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1657, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9033, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2189, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2706, "crosses_total": 0.8872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1503, "touches": 14.1466, "possession_lost": 2.9989, "dispossessed": 0.2242, "duels_lost": 0.5473, "aerial_lost": 0.1542, "total_contest": 0.3693, "won_contest": 0.1103, "ball_recovery": 0.3818, "challenges_lost": 0.1025, "fouls": 0.0507, "fouls_drawn": 0.0621, "blocks": 0.0139, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0013, "expected_assists": 0.022, "shots_on_target": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.0232, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 4.5119, "total_progression": 27.8738, "progressive_carries": 0.472, "key_pass": 0.2985, "shots_off_target": 0.0229, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.219, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2437, "tackles": 0.3221, "tackles_won": 0.1847, "clearances": 0.3587, "aerial_won": 0.2704, "total_shots": 0.0934, "rating": 6.7002, "minutes": 13.69, "total_pass": 9.3846, "accurate_pass": 8.1739, "duels_won": 0.9001, "total_long_balls": 0.2693, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1369, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1657, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9033, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2189, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2706, "crosses_total": 0.8872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1503, "touches": 14.1466, "possession_lost": 2.9989, "dispossessed": 0.2242, "duels_lost": 0.5473, "aerial_lost": 0.1542, "total_contest": 0.3693, "won_contest": 0.1103, "ball_recovery": 0.3818, "challenges_lost": 0.1025, "fouls": 0.0507, "fouls_drawn": 0.0621, "blocks": 0.0139, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0013, "expected_assists": 0.022, "shots_on_target": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.0232, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 4.5119, "total_progression": 27.8738, "progressive_carries": 0.472, "key_pass": 0.2985, "shots_off_target": 0.0229, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.219, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.219, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2437, "tackles": 0.3221, "tackles_won": 0.1847, "clearances": 0.3587, "aerial_won": 0.2704, "total_shots": 0.0934, "rating": 6.7002, "minutes": 13.69, "total_pass": 9.3846, "accurate_pass": 8.1739, "duels_won": 0.9001, "total_long_balls": 0.2693, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1369, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1657, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9033, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2189, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2706, "crosses_total": 0.8872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1503, "touches": 14.1466, "possession_lost": 2.9989, "dispossessed": 0.2242, "duels_lost": 0.5473, "aerial_lost": 0.1542, "total_contest": 0.3693, "won_contest": 0.1103, "ball_recovery": 0.3818, "challenges_lost": 0.1025, "fouls": 0.0507, "fouls_drawn": 0.0621, "blocks": 0.0139, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0013, "expected_assists": 0.022, "shots_on_target": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7141, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "assists": 0.1245, "assist_rate": 0.1245, "expected_goals": 0.0871, "goals": 0.1271, "goal_rate": 0.1271, "shots_on_target": 0.2875, "total_shots": 1.0666, "rating": 6.7935, "minutes": 31.81, "total_pass": 11.2079, "accurate_pass": 10.1319, "duels_won": 3.4356, "total_long_balls": 1.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8535, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9334, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1986, "crosses_total": 1.1619, "crosses_accurate": 0.2977, "touches": 20.2116, "possession_lost": 5.0666, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 3.5571, "aerial_won": 0.797, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.731, "tackles": 1.3235, "clearances": 0.215, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5138, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "assist_rate": 0.0882, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0627, "goal_rate": 0.0901, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.208, "total_shots": 0.7686, "rating": 6.7935, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 8.0641, "accurate_pass": 7.2899, "duels_won": 2.4719, "total_long_balls": 0.7961, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6141, "total_own_half_passes": 2.37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1106, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1794, "crosses_total": 0.8263, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 14.5423, "possession_lost": 3.6454, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 2.5593, "aerial_won": 0.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0028, "tackles_won": 0.5195, "tackles": 0.9523, "clearances": 0.1547, "total_contest": 0.7104, "won_contest": 0.3003, "challenges_lost": 0.5662, "fouls": 0.6063, "fouls_drawn": 0.6419, "blocks": 0.0, 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} }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.336254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.198024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.038514 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037847 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026179 } ], "others_margin": -0.104955 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7008185386657715, "model_output": 6.7008, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0924 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "totalShots", 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2012, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0752, "key_pass": 0.6162, "rating": 6.7921, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 9.7512, "accurate_pass": 7.9472, "duels_won": 1.4915, "total_long_balls": 0.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9118, "crosses_total": 2.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.4465, "touches": 18.8224, "possession_lost": 6.8147, "dispossessed": 0.866, "duels_lost": 2.8538, "aerial_lost": 0.6223, "total_contest": 1.9285, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 1.1587, "challenges_lost": 0.1295, "fouls": 0.2795, "fouls_drawn": 0.2253, "assist_rate": 0.0153, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2197, "tackles_won": 0.27, "tackles": 0.398, "clearances": 0.0049, "blocks": 0.008, "big_chances_created": 0.0265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1361, "offsides": 0.1269, "ball_carries": 7.2008, "total_progression": 50.9378, "progressive_carries": 2.3991, "shots_off_target": 0.5022, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.0016, xG scale 1.7263, xA scale 1.7263, team xA 1.22 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2012, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "key_pass": 0.6162, "rating": 6.7921, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 9.7512, "accurate_pass": 7.9472, "duels_won": 1.4915, "total_long_balls": 0.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9118, "crosses_total": 2.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.4465, "touches": 18.8224, "possession_lost": 6.8147, "dispossessed": 0.866, "duels_lost": 2.8538, "aerial_lost": 0.6223, "total_contest": 1.9285, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 1.1587, "challenges_lost": 0.1295, "fouls": 0.2795, "fouls_drawn": 0.2253, "assist_rate": 0.0153, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2197, "tackles_won": 0.27, "tackles": 0.398, "clearances": 0.0049, "blocks": 0.008, "big_chances_created": 0.0265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1337, "offsides": 0.1269, "ball_carries": 7.2008, "total_progression": 50.9378, "progressive_carries": 2.3991, "shots_off_target": 0.5022, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2325, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.729, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0016, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7085, "team_expected_assists": 1.2231, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7074, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.7263, "xa_scale": 1.7263, "opponent_lambda": 1.255, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083364.0, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2383, "combined_rank_score": 1054.5, "ranking_source": 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Londoño", "ranking": 2388 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", 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-0.0235 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": -0.075, "total": 0.2644, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.464533 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.095234 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.061342 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.052595 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.038373 } ], "others_margin": -0.249655 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6038126945495605, "model_output": 6.6038, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0524 }, { "name": 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2718 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0621 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0472 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0421 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0319 } ], "others": 0.1486, "total": 0.7518, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.499039 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.137963 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.093424 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.07655 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.054248 } ], "others_margin": 0.220188 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.79209566116333, "model_output": 6.7921, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0856 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0151 } ], "others": 0.043, "total": 6.7921, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08559 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032259 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.023384 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.020803 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.015096 } ], "others_margin": 0.043003 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0769, "goals": 0.109, "goal_rate": 0.109, "shots_on_target": 0.2453, "total_shots": 0.8577, "expected_assists": 0.0917, "key_pass": 0.7515, "rating": 6.7921, "minutes": 31.11, "total_pass": 11.8913, "accurate_pass": 9.6914, "duels_won": 1.8188, "total_long_balls": 0.5437, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1014, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4288, "crosses_total": 2.7985, "crosses_accurate": 0.5445, "touches": 22.9535, "possession_lost": 8.3104, "dispossessed": 0.866, "duels_lost": 3.4801, "aerial_lost": 0.6223, "total_contest": 2.3517, "won_contest": 0.8302, "ball_recovery": 1.413, "challenges_lost": 0.1295, "fouls": 0.3409, "fouls_drawn": 0.2747, "assists": 0.0186, "assist_rate": 0.0186, "interceptions": 0.2679, "tackles_won": 0.3293, "tackles": 0.4854, "clearances": 0.006, "blocks": 0.0097, "big_chances_created": 0.0323, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.166, "offsides": 0.1269, "ball_carries": 8.7812, "total_progression": 62.1174, "progressive_carries": 2.9257, "shots_off_target": 0.6124 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 31.1 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goals": 0.0894, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "shots_on_target": 0.2012, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0752, "key_pass": 0.6162, "rating": 6.7921, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 9.7512, "accurate_pass": 7.9472, "duels_won": 1.4915, "total_long_balls": 0.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9118, "crosses_total": 2.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.4465, "touches": 18.8224, "possession_lost": 6.8147, "dispossessed": 0.866, "duels_lost": 2.8538, "aerial_lost": 0.6223, "total_contest": 1.9285, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 1.1587, "challenges_lost": 0.1295, "fouls": 0.2795, "fouls_drawn": 0.2253, "assists": 0.0153, "assist_rate": 0.0153, "interceptions": 0.2197, "tackles_won": 0.27, "tackles": 0.398, "clearances": 0.0049, "blocks": 0.008, "big_chances_created": 0.0265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1361, "offsides": 0.1269, "ball_carries": 7.2008, "total_progression": 50.9378, "progressive_carries": 2.3991, "shots_off_target": 0.5022, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.51, "projection_minutes": 31.11, "minutes_scale": 0.82, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goals": 0.0894, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "shots_on_target": 0.2012, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0752, "key_pass": 0.6162, "rating": 6.7921, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 9.7512, "accurate_pass": 7.9472, "duels_won": 1.4915, "total_long_balls": 0.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9118, "crosses_total": 2.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.4465, "touches": 18.8224, "possession_lost": 6.8147, "dispossessed": 0.866, "duels_lost": 2.8538, "aerial_lost": 0.6223, "total_contest": 1.9285, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 1.1587, "challenges_lost": 0.1295, "fouls": 0.2795, "fouls_drawn": 0.2253, "assists": 0.0153, "assist_rate": 0.0153, "interceptions": 0.2197, "tackles_won": 0.27, "tackles": 0.398, "clearances": 0.0049, "blocks": 0.008, "big_chances_created": 0.0265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1361, "offsides": 0.1269, "ball_carries": 7.2008, "total_progression": 50.9378, "progressive_carries": 2.3991, "shots_off_target": 0.5022, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2012, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0752, "key_pass": 0.6162, "rating": 6.7921, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 9.7512, "accurate_pass": 7.9472, "duels_won": 1.4915, "total_long_balls": 0.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9118, "crosses_total": 2.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.4465, "touches": 18.8224, "possession_lost": 6.8147, "dispossessed": 0.866, "duels_lost": 2.8538, "aerial_lost": 0.6223, "total_contest": 1.9285, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 1.1587, "challenges_lost": 0.1295, "fouls": 0.2795, "fouls_drawn": 0.2253, "assist_rate": 0.0153, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2197, "tackles_won": 0.27, "tackles": 0.398, "clearances": 0.0049, "blocks": 0.008, "big_chances_created": 0.0265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1361, "offsides": 0.1269, "ball_carries": 7.2008, "total_progression": 50.9378, "progressive_carries": 2.3991, "shots_off_target": 0.5022, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.0016, xG scale 1.7263, xA scale 1.7263, team xA 1.22 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2012, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "key_pass": 0.6162, "rating": 6.7921, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 9.7512, "accurate_pass": 7.9472, "duels_won": 1.4915, "total_long_balls": 0.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9118, "crosses_total": 2.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.4465, "touches": 18.8224, "possession_lost": 6.8147, "dispossessed": 0.866, "duels_lost": 2.8538, "aerial_lost": 0.6223, "total_contest": 1.9285, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 1.1587, "challenges_lost": 0.1295, "fouls": 0.2795, "fouls_drawn": 0.2253, "assist_rate": 0.0153, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2197, "tackles_won": 0.27, "tackles": 0.398, "clearances": 0.0049, "blocks": 0.008, "big_chances_created": 0.0265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1337, "offsides": 0.1269, "ball_carries": 7.2008, "total_progression": 50.9378, "progressive_carries": 2.3991, "shots_off_target": 0.5022, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2325, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.729, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0016, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7085, "team_expected_assists": 1.2231, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7074, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.7263, "xa_scale": 1.7263, "opponent_lambda": 1.255, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2012, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "key_pass": 0.6162, "rating": 6.7921, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 9.7512, "accurate_pass": 7.9472, "duels_won": 1.4915, "total_long_balls": 0.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9118, "crosses_total": 2.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.4465, "touches": 18.8224, "possession_lost": 6.8147, "dispossessed": 0.866, "duels_lost": 2.8538, "aerial_lost": 0.6223, "total_contest": 1.9285, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 1.1587, "challenges_lost": 0.1295, "fouls": 0.2795, "fouls_drawn": 0.2253, "assist_rate": 0.0153, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2197, "tackles_won": 0.27, "tackles": 0.398, "clearances": 0.0049, "blocks": 0.008, "big_chances_created": 0.0265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1337, "offsides": 0.1269, "ball_carries": 7.2008, "total_progression": 50.9378, "progressive_carries": 2.3991, "shots_off_target": 0.5022, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2325, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3133, "fifa_rank": 1972.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2012, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "key_pass": 0.6162, "rating": 6.7921, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 9.7512, "accurate_pass": 7.9472, "duels_won": 1.4915, "total_long_balls": 0.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9118, "crosses_total": 2.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.4465, "touches": 18.8224, "possession_lost": 6.8147, "dispossessed": 0.866, "duels_lost": 2.8538, "aerial_lost": 0.6223, "total_contest": 1.9285, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 1.1587, "challenges_lost": 0.1295, "fouls": 0.2795, "fouls_drawn": 0.2253, "assist_rate": 0.0153, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2197, "tackles_won": 0.27, "tackles": 0.398, "clearances": 0.0049, "blocks": 0.008, "big_chances_created": 0.0265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1337, "offsides": 0.1269, "ball_carries": 7.2008, "total_progression": 50.9378, "progressive_carries": 2.3991, "shots_off_target": 0.5022, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0587, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2325, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "scorer_weight": 0.0764, "squad_weight_total": 1.9109, "weight_share": 0.04, "finishing_factor": 1.2325, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñaki Williams", "weight": 0.5576, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5576, "runner_up": "Nico Williams", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.305 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Nico Williams", "weight": 0.305, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.305, "runner_up": "Álex Berenguer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2692 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2012, "total_shots": 0.7034, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "key_pass": 0.6162, "rating": 6.7921, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 9.7512, "accurate_pass": 7.9472, "duels_won": 1.4915, "total_long_balls": 0.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9118, "crosses_total": 2.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.4465, "touches": 18.8224, "possession_lost": 6.8147, "dispossessed": 0.866, "duels_lost": 2.8538, "aerial_lost": 0.6223, "total_contest": 1.9285, "won_contest": 0.6808, "ball_recovery": 1.1587, "challenges_lost": 0.1295, "fouls": 0.2795, "fouls_drawn": 0.2253, "assist_rate": 0.0153, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2197, "tackles_won": 0.27, "tackles": 0.398, "clearances": 0.0049, "blocks": 0.008, "big_chances_created": 0.0265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1337, "offsides": 0.1269, "ball_carries": 7.2008, "total_progression": 50.9378, "progressive_carries": 2.3991, "shots_off_target": 0.5022, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, 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"predicted": 6.7008185386657715, "model_output": 6.7008, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0924 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0052 } ], "others": -0.0119, "total": 6.7008, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.09244 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032527 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009029 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.005571 }, { "name": "totalShots", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0171, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2487, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "assists": 0.0402, "assist_rate": 0.0402, "expected_goals": 0.0207, "goals": 0.0332, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "shots_on_target": 0.0751, "total_shots": 0.2473, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 20.33, "total_pass": 25.9498, "accurate_pass": 19.5998, "duels_won": 3.2987, "total_long_balls": 1.0171, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4674, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4667, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8991, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1331, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.4989, "possession_lost": 8.4666, "dispossessed": 0.5497, "duels_lost": 4.2334, "aerial_won": 1.0996, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.0996, "tackles_won": 1.0996, "tackles": 1.6493, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0996, "won_contest": 0.5497, "challenges_lost": 0.5497, "fouls": 2.5839, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1722 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0171, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.3 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2759, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "assists": 0.0446, "assist_rate": 0.0446, "expected_goals": 0.023, "goals": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.0833, "total_shots": 0.2744, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 28.7899, "accurate_pass": 21.7449, "duels_won": 3.6597, "total_long_balls": 1.1284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5186, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2601, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3933, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3516, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.2746, "possession_lost": 9.3932, "dispossessed": 0.5497, "duels_lost": 4.6967, "aerial_won": 1.2199, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2199, "tackles_won": 1.2199, "tackles": 1.8298, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2199, "won_contest": 0.6099, "challenges_lost": 0.5497, "fouls": 2.8667, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.191, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.56, "projection_minutes": 20.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1094, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2759, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "assists": 0.0446, "assist_rate": 0.0446, "expected_goals": 0.023, "goals": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.0833, "total_shots": 0.2744, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 28.7899, "accurate_pass": 21.7449, "duels_won": 3.6597, "total_long_balls": 1.1284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5186, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2601, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3933, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3516, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.2746, "possession_lost": 9.3932, "dispossessed": 0.5497, "duels_lost": 4.6967, "aerial_won": 1.2199, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2199, "tackles_won": 1.2199, "tackles": 1.8298, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2199, "won_contest": 0.6099, "challenges_lost": 0.5497, "fouls": 2.8667, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.191, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2759, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "assist_rate": 0.0446, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.023, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0833, "total_shots": 0.2744, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 28.7899, "accurate_pass": 21.7449, "duels_won": 3.6597, "total_long_balls": 1.1284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5186, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2601, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3933, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3516, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.2746, "possession_lost": 9.3932, "dispossessed": 0.5497, "duels_lost": 4.6967, "aerial_won": 1.2199, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2199, "tackles_won": 1.2199, "tackles": 1.8298, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2199, "won_contest": 0.6099, "challenges_lost": 0.5497, "fouls": 2.8667, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.191, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.0016, xG scale 1.7263, xA scale 1.7263, team xA 1.22 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2759, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "assist_rate": 0.0446, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0833, "total_shots": 0.2744, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 28.7899, "accurate_pass": 21.7449, "duels_won": 3.6597, "total_long_balls": 1.1284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5186, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2601, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3933, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3516, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.2746, "possession_lost": 9.3932, "dispossessed": 0.5497, "duels_lost": 4.6967, "aerial_won": 1.2199, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2199, "tackles_won": 1.2199, "tackles": 1.8298, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2199, "won_contest": 0.6099, "challenges_lost": 0.5497, "fouls": 2.8667, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.191, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.189, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.729, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0016, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7085, "team_expected_assists": 1.2231, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7074, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.7263, "xa_scale": 1.7263, "opponent_lambda": 1.255, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2759, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "assist_rate": 0.0446, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0833, "total_shots": 0.2744, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 28.7899, "accurate_pass": 21.7449, "duels_won": 3.6597, "total_long_balls": 1.1284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5186, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2601, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3933, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3516, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.2746, "possession_lost": 9.3932, "dispossessed": 0.5497, "duels_lost": 4.6967, "aerial_won": 1.2199, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2199, "tackles_won": 1.2199, "tackles": 1.8298, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2199, "won_contest": 0.6099, "challenges_lost": 0.5497, "fouls": 2.8667, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.191, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.189, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3281, "fifa_rank": 1573.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2759, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "assist_rate": 0.0446, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0833, "total_shots": 0.2744, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 28.7899, "accurate_pass": 21.7449, "duels_won": 3.6597, "total_long_balls": 1.1284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5186, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2601, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3933, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3516, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.2746, "possession_lost": 9.3932, "dispossessed": 0.5497, "duels_lost": 4.6967, "aerial_won": 1.2199, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2199, "tackles_won": 1.2199, "tackles": 1.8298, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2199, "won_contest": 0.6099, "challenges_lost": 0.5497, "fouls": 2.8667, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.191, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0204, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.189, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0204, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "scorer_weight": 0.0247, "squad_weight_total": 1.9109, "weight_share": 0.0129, "finishing_factor": 1.189, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iñaki Williams", "weight": 0.5576, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5576, "runner_up": "Nico Williams", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.305 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Nico Williams", "weight": 0.305, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.305, "runner_up": "Álex Berenguer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2692 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2759, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "assist_rate": 0.0446, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0833, "total_shots": 0.2744, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 28.7899, "accurate_pass": 21.7449, "duels_won": 3.6597, "total_long_balls": 1.1284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5186, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2601, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3933, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3516, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.2746, "possession_lost": 9.3932, "dispossessed": 0.5497, "duels_lost": 4.6967, "aerial_won": 1.2199, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2199, "tackles_won": 1.2199, "tackles": 1.8298, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2199, "won_contest": 0.6099, "challenges_lost": 0.5497, "fouls": 2.8667, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.191, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.105, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0204, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0179, "finishing_factor": 1.189, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0179, "assist_rate": 0.0446, "provider_weight": 0.0227, "squad_weight_total": 1.1843, "weight_share": 0.0192, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Álex Berenguer", "weight": 0.2673, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2673, "runner_up": "Yuri Berchiche", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2271 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.73, "expected_assists": 1.22, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 422, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.87, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1 } }, "Real Sociedad": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Álex Remiro": { "player_id": 791773, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 27, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 10, "touches": 49, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 13.2823, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2686, "shots_faced": 16.4, "expected_saves": 4.01, "high_pressure_saves": 1.38, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Nico Williams", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421086.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.1987 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421073.0, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9996, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4387, "accurate_pass": 26.5468, "total_long_balls": 22.2622, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5941, "touches": 48.8814, "clearances": 1.493, "ball_recovery": 7.1691, "high_claims": 0.6635, "punches": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0.0796, "sweeper_actions": 1.7112, "sweeper_accurate": 1.7108, "saves_inside_box": 2.1012, "possession_lost": 13.2823, "duels_won": 0.1394, "duels_lost": 0.0075, "total_contest": 0.0008, "won_contest": 0.0008, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 23.576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.8734, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2686, "shots_faced": 12.1, "expected_saves": 2.97, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Nico Williams", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.3010, xG scale 0.9646, xA scale 0.9646, team xA 0.85 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9996, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4387, "accurate_pass": 26.5468, "total_long_balls": 22.2622, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5941, "touches": 48.8814, "clearances": 1.493, "ball_recovery": 7.1691, "high_claims": 0.6635, "punches": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0.0796, "sweeper_actions": 1.7112, "sweeper_accurate": 1.7108, "saves_inside_box": 2.1012, "possession_lost": 13.2823, "duels_won": 0.1394, "duels_lost": 0.0075, "total_contest": 0.0008, "won_contest": 0.0008, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 23.576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.8734, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2686, "shots_faced": 16.4, "expected_saves": 4.01, "high_pressure_saves": 1.38, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Nico Williams", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.255, "squad_xg_sum": 1.301, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8767, "team_expected_assists": 0.8457, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6739, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9646, "xa_scale": 0.9646, "opponent_lambda": 1.729, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 12.1, "after": 16.4 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.97, "after": 4.01 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.01, "after": 1.38 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9996, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4387, "accurate_pass": 26.5468, "total_long_balls": 22.2622, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5941, "touches": 48.8814, "clearances": 1.493, "ball_recovery": 7.1691, "high_claims": 0.6635, "punches": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0.0796, "sweeper_actions": 1.7112, "sweeper_accurate": 1.7108, "saves_inside_box": 2.1012, "possession_lost": 13.2823, "duels_won": 0.1394, "duels_lost": 0.0075, "total_contest": 0.0008, "won_contest": 0.0008, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 23.576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.8734, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2686, "shots_faced": 16.4, "expected_saves": 4.01, "high_pressure_saves": 1.38, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Nico Williams", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.3959, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.3544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3544, "runner_up": "Gonçalo Guedes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9996, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4387, "accurate_pass": 26.5468, "total_long_balls": 22.2622, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5941, "touches": 48.8814, "clearances": 1.493, "ball_recovery": 7.1691, "high_claims": 0.6635, "punches": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0.0796, "sweeper_actions": 1.7112, "sweeper_accurate": 1.7108, "saves_inside_box": 2.1012, "possession_lost": 13.2823, "duels_won": 0.1394, "duels_lost": 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], "others_margin": -0.031795 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6305224299430847, "model_output": 0.6305, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0638 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0157 } ], "others": -0.0012, "total": 0.6305, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063828 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.028042 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023238 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 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"margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.082071 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049115 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018827 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017543 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.01453 } ], "others_margin": -0.049654 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.80050802230835, "model_output": 6.8005, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0978, "tackles": 1.3972, "tackles_won": 0.8668, "clearances": 3.5226, "aerial_won": 1.0087, "total_shots": 0.3543, "rating": 6.8005, "minutes": 86.9, "total_pass": 62.8316, "accurate_pass": 60.3026, "duels_won": 3.3403, "total_long_balls": 2.8475, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0607, "total_own_half_passes": 47.7224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.6992, "possession_lost": 4.0285, "dispossessed": 0.2086, "duels_lost": 2.1362, "aerial_lost": 0.6142, "total_contest": 0.4369, "won_contest": 0.328, "ball_recovery": 4.0967, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2046, "fouls_drawn": 1.1554, "blocks": 0.8228, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "expected_assists": 0.008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.8629, "total_progression": 37.8303, "progressive_carries": 0.2086, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3543, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.807, "opponent_faced": "Nico Williams", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.3010, xG scale 0.9646, xA scale 0.9646, team xA 0.85 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0978, "tackles": 1.3972, "tackles_won": 0.8668, "clearances": 3.5226, "aerial_won": 1.0087, "total_shots": 0.3543, "rating": 6.8005, "minutes": 86.9, "total_pass": 62.8316, "accurate_pass": 60.3026, "duels_won": 3.3403, "total_long_balls": 2.8475, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0607, "total_own_half_passes": 47.7224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.6992, "possession_lost": 4.0285, "dispossessed": 0.2086, "duels_lost": 2.1362, "aerial_lost": 0.6142, "total_contest": 0.4369, "won_contest": 0.328, "ball_recovery": 4.0967, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2046, "fouls_drawn": 1.1554, "blocks": 0.8228, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0664, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.8629, "total_progression": 37.8303, "progressive_carries": 0.2086, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3543, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.807, "opponent_faced": "Nico Williams", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8621 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.255, "squad_xg_sum": 1.301, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8767, "team_expected_assists": 0.8457, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6739, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9646, "xa_scale": 0.9646, "opponent_lambda": 1.729, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0978, "tackles": 1.3972, "tackles_won": 0.8668, "clearances": 3.5226, "aerial_won": 1.0087, "total_shots": 0.3543, "rating": 6.8005, "minutes": 86.9, "total_pass": 62.8316, "accurate_pass": 60.3026, "duels_won": 3.3403, "total_long_balls": 2.8475, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0607, "total_own_half_passes": 47.7224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.6992, "possession_lost": 4.0285, "dispossessed": 0.2086, "duels_lost": 2.1362, "aerial_lost": 0.6142, "total_contest": 0.4369, "won_contest": 0.328, "ball_recovery": 4.0967, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2046, 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0.074253 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5266662240028381, "model_output": 0.5267, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0581 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0366, "total": 0.5267, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058053 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.026491 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.018668 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018175 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.013646 } ], "others_margin": -0.036634 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.956427097320557, "model_output": 6.9564, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0472 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": 0.0849, "total": 6.9564, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.047243 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.026623 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024199 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.013376 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.009714 } ], "others_margin": 0.08489 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2874, "tackles": 1.5131, "tackles_won": 0.8433, "clearances": 5.6522, "aerial_won": 2.7328, "total_shots": 0.53, "rating": 6.9564, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 60.5301, "accurate_pass": 55.8533, "duels_won": 6.2482, "total_long_balls": 3.4388, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2776, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.179, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.836, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6743, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.6673, "possession_lost": 5.8807, "dispossessed": 0.5038, "duels_lost": 3.8289, "aerial_lost": 1.7344, "total_contest": 0.2554, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 3.4177, "challenges_lost": 0.2153, "fouls": 1.411, "fouls_drawn": 0.918, "blocks": 0.9702, "goals": 0.1775, 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"after": 1.2643 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8433, "after": 0.8579 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.411, "after": 1.4019 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2643, "tackles": 1.5131, "tackles_won": 0.8579, "clearances": 5.6522, "aerial_won": 2.7328, "total_shots": 0.5298, "rating": 6.9564, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 60.5301, "accurate_pass": 55.8533, "duels_won": 6.2482, "total_long_balls": 3.4388, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2776, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.179, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.836, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6743, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.6673, "possession_lost": 5.8807, "dispossessed": 0.5038, "duels_lost": 3.8289, "aerial_lost": 1.7344, "total_contest": 0.2554, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 3.4177, "challenges_lost": 0.2153, "fouls": 1.4019, "fouls_drawn": 0.9143, "blocks": 0.9702, "goals": 0.1736, "goal_rate": 0.1736, "assists": 0.126, "assist_rate": 0.126, "expected_goals": 0.0734, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "shots_on_target": 0.2569, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1687, "ball_carries": 22.2439, "total_progression": 64.9505, "progressive_carries": 0.4624, "key_pass": 0.2052, "shots_off_target": 0.2729 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2643, "tackles": 1.5131, "tackles_won": 0.8579, "clearances": 5.6522, "aerial_won": 2.7328, "total_shots": 0.5298, "rating": 6.9564, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 60.5301, "accurate_pass": 55.8533, "duels_won": 6.2482, "total_long_balls": 3.4388, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2776, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.179, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.836, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6743, 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"dispossessed": 0.5038, "duels_lost": 3.8289, "aerial_lost": 1.7344, "total_contest": 0.2554, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 3.4177, "challenges_lost": 0.2153, "fouls": 1.4019, "fouls_drawn": 0.9143, "blocks": 0.9702, "goal_rate": 0.1736, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.126, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0734, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "shots_on_target": 0.2569, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1687, "ball_carries": 22.2439, "total_progression": 64.9505, "progressive_carries": 0.4624, "key_pass": 0.2052, "shots_off_target": 0.2729, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.807, "opponent_faced": "Nico Williams", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.3010, xG scale 0.9646, xA scale 0.9646, team xA 0.85 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2643, "tackles": 1.5131, "tackles_won": 0.8579, "clearances": 5.6522, "aerial_won": 2.7328, "total_shots": 0.5298, "rating": 6.9564, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 60.5301, "accurate_pass": 55.8533, "duels_won": 6.2482, "total_long_balls": 3.4388, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2776, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.179, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.836, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6743, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.6673, "possession_lost": 5.8807, "dispossessed": 0.5038, "duels_lost": 3.8289, "aerial_lost": 1.7344, "total_contest": 0.2554, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 3.4177, "challenges_lost": 0.2153, "fouls": 1.4019, "fouls_drawn": 0.9143, "blocks": 0.9702, "goal_rate": 0.1736, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.126, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0708, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.2569, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1627, "ball_carries": 22.2439, "total_progression": 64.9505, "progressive_carries": 0.4624, "key_pass": 0.2052, "shots_off_target": 0.2729, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.807, "opponent_faced": "Nico Williams", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.255, "squad_xg_sum": 1.301, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8767, "team_expected_assists": 0.8457, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6739, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9646, "xa_scale": 0.9646, "opponent_lambda": 1.729, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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}, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0791 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0547 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": -0.0187, "total": 0.5138, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.079126 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054747 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.035346 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.026444 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013975 } ], "others_margin": -0.018813 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7829365730285645, "model_output": 6.7829, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 6.7829, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023537 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.0164 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010882 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.009153 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.008606 } ], "others_margin": -0.011552 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0021, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0119, "tackles": 1.9972, "tackles_won": 1.3141, "clearances": 2.2991, "aerial_won": 0.6669, "total_shots": 0.5149, "rating": 6.7829, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 46.1005, "accurate_pass": 41.0586, "duels_won": 3.0713, "total_long_balls": 3.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1315, "total_own_half_passes": 22.243, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3302, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8575, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.7283, "crosses_total": 4.2214, "crosses_accurate": 0.6497, "touches": 71.5918, "possession_lost": 12.6877, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 2.4672, "aerial_lost": 0.34, "total_contest": 0.836, "won_contest": 0.5117, "ball_recovery": 4.8356, "challenges_lost": 1.1635, "fouls": 0.4172, "fouls_drawn": 0.339, "blocks": 0.3807, "goals": 0.0, 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"after": 4.2474 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.339, "after": 0.3334 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4172, "after": 0.4228 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0119, "tackles": 1.9972, "tackles_won": 1.3132, "clearances": 2.2991, "aerial_won": 0.6669, "total_shots": 0.5189, "rating": 6.7829, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 46.1005, "accurate_pass": 41.0586, "duels_won": 3.0713, "total_long_balls": 3.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1315, "total_own_half_passes": 22.243, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3302, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8575, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.7283, "crosses_total": 4.2474, "crosses_accurate": 0.6497, "touches": 71.5918, "possession_lost": 12.6877, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 2.4672, "aerial_lost": 0.34, "total_contest": 0.836, "won_contest": 0.5117, "ball_recovery": 4.8356, "challenges_lost": 1.1635, "fouls": 0.4228, "fouls_drawn": 0.3334, "blocks": 0.3807, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.116, "assist_rate": 0.116, "expected_goals": 0.0134, "expected_assists": 0.1029, "shots_on_target": 0.091, "big_chances_created": 0.2432, "xgot": 0.0191, "ball_carries": 14.3598, "total_progression": 34.6335, "progressive_carries": 0.6544, "key_pass": 1.0622, "shots_off_target": 0.4224 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0119, "tackles": 1.9972, "tackles_won": 1.3132, "clearances": 2.2991, "aerial_won": 0.6669, "total_shots": 0.5189, "rating": 6.7829, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 46.1005, "accurate_pass": 41.0586, "duels_won": 3.0713, "total_long_balls": 3.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1315, "total_own_half_passes": 22.243, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3302, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8575, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.7283, "crosses_total": 4.2474, "crosses_accurate": 0.6497, "touches": 71.5918, "possession_lost": 12.6877, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 2.4672, "aerial_lost": 0.34, "total_contest": 0.836, "won_contest": 0.5117, "ball_recovery": 4.8356, "challenges_lost": 1.1635, "fouls": 0.4228, "fouls_drawn": 0.3334, "blocks": 0.3807, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.116, "assist_rate": 0.116, "expected_goals": 0.0134, "expected_assists": 0.1029, "shots_on_target": 0.091, "big_chances_created": 0.2432, "xgot": 0.0191, "ball_carries": 14.3598, "total_progression": 34.6335, "progressive_carries": 0.6544, "key_pass": 1.0622, "shots_off_target": 0.4224, "opponent_faced": "Maroan Sannadi", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Maroan Sannadi", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0119, "tackles": 1.9972, "tackles_won": 1.3132, "clearances": 2.2991, "aerial_won": 0.6669, "total_shots": 0.5189, "rating": 6.7829, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 46.1005, "accurate_pass": 41.0586, "duels_won": 3.0713, "total_long_balls": 3.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1315, "total_own_half_passes": 22.243, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3302, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8575, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.7283, "crosses_total": 4.2474, "crosses_accurate": 0.6497, "touches": 71.5918, "possession_lost": 12.6877, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 2.4672, "aerial_lost": 0.34, "total_contest": 0.836, "won_contest": 0.5117, "ball_recovery": 4.8356, "challenges_lost": 1.1635, "fouls": 0.4228, "fouls_drawn": 0.3334, "blocks": 0.3807, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.116, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0134, "expected_assists": 0.1029, "shots_on_target": 0.091, "big_chances_created": 0.2432, "xgot": 0.0191, "ball_carries": 14.3598, "total_progression": 34.6335, "progressive_carries": 0.6544, "key_pass": 1.0622, "shots_off_target": 0.4224, "opponent_faced": "Maroan Sannadi", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.3010, xG scale 0.9646, xA scale 0.9646, team xA 0.85 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0119, "tackles": 1.9972, "tackles_won": 1.3132, "clearances": 2.2991, "aerial_won": 0.6669, "total_shots": 0.5189, "rating": 6.7829, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 46.1005, "accurate_pass": 41.0586, 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.0857 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.255, "squad_xg_sum": 1.301, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8767, "team_expected_assists": 0.8457, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6739, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9646, "xa_scale": 0.9646, "opponent_lambda": 1.729, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.162979 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.047937 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.047378 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.030999 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.030869 } ], "others_margin": -0.08918 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.935445308685303, "model_output": 6.9354, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0908 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0332 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", 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"Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5135, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "assists": 0.0453, "assist_rate": 0.0453, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0451, "shots_on_target": 0.112, "total_shots": 0.4635, "rating": 6.9271, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 56.1288, "accurate_pass": 50.9467, "duels_won": 4.4982, "total_long_balls": 2.1369, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3077, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6862, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2605, "crosses_total": 0.0507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.5244, "possession_lost": 7.5174, "dispossessed": 0.9746, "duels_lost": 3.6719, "aerial_won": 0.9891, "aerial_lost": 0.7007, "interceptions": 1.8266, "tackles_won": 1.2454, "tackles": 2.0069, "clearances": 1.4586, "total_contest": 0.7903, "won_contest": 0.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.6359, "fouls": 0.9446, "fouls_drawn": 1.1249, "blocks": 0.4875, "big_chances_created": 0.0337, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0045, "ball_carries": 19.4999, "total_progression": 44.9879, "progressive_carries": 0.3054, "shots_off_target": 0.3515 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5135, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "assists": 0.0453, "assist_rate": 0.0453, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "shots_on_target": 0.1126, "total_shots": 0.4661, "rating": 6.9271, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 56.1288, "accurate_pass": 50.9467, "duels_won": 4.4982, "total_long_balls": 2.1369, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3077, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6862, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2605, "crosses_total": 0.0507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.5244, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5135, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "assist_rate": 0.0453, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0314, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1126, "total_shots": 0.4661, "rating": 6.9271, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 56.1288, "accurate_pass": 50.9467, "duels_won": 4.4982, "total_long_balls": 2.1369, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3077, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6862, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2605, "crosses_total": 0.0507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.5244, "possession_lost": 7.5174, "dispossessed": 0.9746, "duels_lost": 3.6719, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7007, "interceptions": 1.8266, "tackles_won": 1.2454, "tackles": 2.0069, "clearances": 1.4586, "total_contest": 0.7903, "won_contest": 0.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.6359, "fouls": 0.9446, "fouls_drawn": 1.1249, "blocks": 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"expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0165 } ], "others": 0.0217, "total": 0.5617, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.252246 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130066 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.067065 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049478 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.031105 } ], "others_margin": 0.039339 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.6647690534591675, "model_output": 1.6648, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3891 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1599 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0392 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0323 } ], "others": 0.0199, "total": 1.6648, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.389072 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.159867 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.039548 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.039167 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.032319 } ], "others_margin": 0.01986 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.903991222381592, "model_output": 6.904, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0329, "total": 6.904, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033807 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.030652 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018071 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017812 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.014742 } ], "others_margin": -0.032873 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0037, quality 0.593)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3875, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "assists": 0.1402, "assist_rate": 0.1402, "expected_goals": 0.1477, "goals": 0.1497, "goal_rate": 0.1497, "shots_on_target": 0.5638, "total_shots": 1.671, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 81.26, "total_pass": 34.0153, "accurate_pass": 30.0074, "duels_won": 3.0106, "total_long_balls": 2.4327, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8954, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7998, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9696, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0377, "crosses_total": 1.0135, "crosses_accurate": 0.1952, "touches": 45.9669, "possession_lost": 8.3206, "dispossessed": 1.2171, "duels_lost": 4.3616, "aerial_won": 0.4427, "aerial_lost": 0.6946, "interceptions": 0.6075, "tackles_won": 0.7972, "tackles": 1.2512, "clearances": 0.6437, "total_contest": 1.7033, "won_contest": 0.9166, "challenges_lost": 1.0587, "fouls": 0.6311, "fouls_drawn": 0.4001, "blocks": 0.0368, "big_chances_created": 0.5242, "big_chances_missed": 0.1874, "xgot": 0.2826, "ball_carries": 17.1819, "total_progression": 33.8564, "progressive_carries": 1.6766, "shots_off_target": 1.1072 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16300000, "quality_factor": 0.5932, "boost_factor": 1.0037, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0187)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3875, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "assists": 0.1376, "assist_rate": 0.1376, "expected_goals": 0.1477, "goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.1523, "shots_on_target": 0.5641, "total_shots": 1.6774, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 81.26, "total_pass": 34.0153, "accurate_pass": 30.0074, "duels_won": 3.0106, "total_long_balls": 2.4327, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8954, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7998, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9696, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0377, "crosses_total": 1.0272, "crosses_accurate": 0.1952, "touches": 45.9669, "possession_lost": 8.3206, "dispossessed": 1.2171, "duels_lost": 4.3616, "aerial_won": 0.4427, "aerial_lost": 0.6946, "interceptions": 0.5962, "tackles_won": 0.7932, "tackles": 1.2512, "clearances": 0.6437, "total_contest": 1.7033, "won_contest": 0.9166, "challenges_lost": 1.0587, "fouls": 0.6356, "fouls_drawn": 0.3981, "blocks": 0.0368, "big_chances_created": 0.5242, "big_chances_missed": 0.1874, "xgot": 0.2826, "ball_carries": 17.1819, "total_progression": 33.8564, "progressive_carries": 1.6766, "shots_off_target": 1.1072 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0187, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9029, "prior_reliability": 0.2067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.0135, "after": 1.0272 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.6075, "after": 0.5962 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.671, "after": 1.6774 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3875, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "assists": 0.1376, "assist_rate": 0.1376, "expected_goals": 0.1477, "goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.1523, "shots_on_target": 0.5641, "total_shots": 1.6774, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 81.26, "total_pass": 34.0153, "accurate_pass": 30.0074, "duels_won": 3.0106, "total_long_balls": 2.4327, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8954, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7998, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9696, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0377, "crosses_total": 1.0272, "crosses_accurate": 0.1952, "touches": 45.9669, "possession_lost": 8.3206, "dispossessed": 1.2171, "duels_lost": 4.3616, "aerial_won": 0.4427, "aerial_lost": 0.6946, "interceptions": 0.5962, "tackles_won": 0.7932, "tackles": 1.2512, "clearances": 0.6437, "total_contest": 1.7033, "won_contest": 0.9166, "challenges_lost": 1.0587, "fouls": 0.6356, "fouls_drawn": 0.3981, "blocks": 0.0368, "big_chances_created": 0.5242, "big_chances_missed": 0.1874, "xgot": 0.2826, "ball_carries": 17.1819, "total_progression": 33.8564, "progressive_carries": 1.6766, "shots_off_target": 1.1072 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3875, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "assists": 0.1376, "assist_rate": 0.1376, "expected_goals": 0.1567, "goals": 0.1616, "goal_rate": 0.1616, "shots_on_target": 0.5985, "total_shots": 1.7797, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 81.26, "total_pass": 34.0153, "accurate_pass": 30.0074, "duels_won": 3.0106, "total_long_balls": 2.4327, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8954, 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"1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mikel Jauregizar, Beñat Gerenabarrena", "opponent_faced": "Mikel Jauregizar, Beñat Gerenabarrena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mikel Jauregizar, Beñat Gerenabarrena", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.061, "skill_edge": 0.0015, "height_edge": 0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.6022, "defender_skill": 0.5989, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Mikel Jauregizar", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7219 }, { "player": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "market_value": 5200000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4759 } ], "xg_override": 0.1567 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4427, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6774, "after": 1.7797 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1072, "after": 1.1747 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5641, "after": 0.5985 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2826, "after": 0.2998 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1874, "after": 0.1988 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1523, "after": 0.1616 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1477, "after": 0.1567 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3875, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "assist_rate": 0.1376, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1567, "goal_rate": 0.1616, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5985, "total_shots": 1.7797, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 81.26, "total_pass": 34.0153, "accurate_pass": 30.0074, "duels_won": 3.0106, 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"97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293.0, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0735, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 31, "combined_rank_score": 26.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 40.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 13.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC 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0.221161 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.11328 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.112258 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.100922 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.044298 } ], "others_margin": 0.121641 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.122947692871094, "model_output": 7.1229, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1094 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0798 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0642 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.029 } ], "others": 0.0967, "total": 7.1229, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.109423 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.079822 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064229 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.029541 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.029002 } ], "others_margin": 0.09668 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2867, "goals": 0.4055, "goal_rate": 0.4055, "shots_on_target": 0.8944, "total_shots": 2.2912, "expected_assists": 0.1132, "key_pass": 1.4201, "rating": 7.1229, "minutes": 81.82, "total_pass": 31.4603, "accurate_pass": 25.8549, "duels_won": 3.6638, "total_long_balls": 1.1213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6801, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2267, "crosses_total": 0.3652, "crosses_accurate": 0.0706, "touches": 45.1571, "possession_lost": 10.7206, "dispossessed": 1.3487, "duels_lost": 4.3491, "aerial_lost": 0.7652, "total_contest": 1.367, "won_contest": 0.627, "ball_recovery": 3.0752, "challenges_lost": 0.7635, "fouls": 0.8812, "fouls_drawn": 1.2792, "assists": 0.119, "assist_rate": 0.119, "interceptions": 0.2597, 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0.7255 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.119, "after": 0.1255 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.4055, "after": 0.4001 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2867, "goals": 0.4001, "goal_rate": 0.4001, "shots_on_target": 0.8987, "total_shots": 2.2955, "expected_assists": 0.1132, "key_pass": 1.4201, "rating": 7.1229, "minutes": 81.82, "total_pass": 31.4603, "accurate_pass": 25.8549, "duels_won": 3.6638, "total_long_balls": 1.1213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6801, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2267, "crosses_total": 0.3684, "crosses_accurate": 0.0706, "touches": 45.1571, "possession_lost": 10.7206, "dispossessed": 1.3487, "duels_lost": 4.3491, "aerial_lost": 0.7652, "total_contest": 1.367, "won_contest": 0.627, "ball_recovery": 3.0752, "challenges_lost": 0.7635, "fouls": 0.8776, "fouls_drawn": 1.2904, "assists": 0.1255, "assist_rate": 0.1255, 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"possession_lost": 10.7206, "dispossessed": 1.3487, "duels_lost": 4.3491, "aerial_lost": 0.7652, "total_contest": 1.367, "won_contest": 0.627, "ball_recovery": 3.0752, "challenges_lost": 0.7635, "fouls": 0.8776, "fouls_drawn": 1.2904, "assists": 0.1255, "assist_rate": 0.1255, "interceptions": 0.2603, "tackles_won": 0.7255, "tackles": 0.8651, "clearances": 0.2202, "blocks": 0.0187, "big_chances_created": 0.2551, "big_chances_missed": 0.4963, "xgot": 0.2904, "offsides": 0.0942, "ball_carries": 15.4384, "total_progression": 67.1673, "progressive_carries": 3.1668, "shots_off_target": 1.4312, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0246, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.217, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aymeric Laporte, Dani Vivian", "opponent_faced": "Aymeric Laporte, Dani Vivian", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Aymeric Laporte, Dani Vivian", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.217, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0246, "skill_edge": 0.0407, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.6941, "defender_skill": 0.6037, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "market_value": 8400000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5365 }, { "player": "Dani Vivian", "market_value": 18200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6709 } ], "xg_override": 0.2938 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2955, "after": 2.352 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3968, "after": 1.4312 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8987, "after": 0.9208 }, { "stat": 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.3010, xG scale 0.9646, xA scale 0.9646, team xA 0.85 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2835, "goal_rate": 0.4099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9208, "total_shots": 2.352, "expected_assists": 0.1092, "key_pass": 1.4201, "rating": 7.1229, "minutes": 81.82, "total_pass": 31.4603, "accurate_pass": 25.8549, "duels_won": 3.6638, "total_long_balls": 1.1213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6801, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2267, "crosses_total": 0.3684, "crosses_accurate": 0.0706, "touches": 45.1571, "possession_lost": 10.7206, "dispossessed": 1.3487, "duels_lost": 4.3491, "aerial_lost": 0.7652, "total_contest": 1.367, "won_contest": 0.627, "ball_recovery": 3.0752, "challenges_lost": 0.7635, "fouls": 0.8776, "fouls_drawn": 1.2904, "assist_rate": 0.1255, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2603, "tackles_won": 0.7255, "tackles": 0.8651, "clearances": 0.2202, "blocks": 0.0187, "big_chances_created": 0.2551, "big_chances_missed": 0.4963, "xgot": 0.2801, "offsides": 0.0942, "ball_carries": 15.4384, "total_progression": 67.1673, "progressive_carries": 3.1668, "shots_off_target": 1.4312, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0246, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.217, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aymeric Laporte, Dani Vivian", "opponent_faced": "Aymeric Laporte, Dani Vivian", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0754 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.255, "squad_xg_sum": 1.301, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8767, "team_expected_assists": 0.8457, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6739, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9646, "xa_scale": 0.9646, "opponent_lambda": 1.729, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2938, "after": 0.2835 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1740, "combined_rank_score": 696.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 694.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7388, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Igor Zubeldia", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nicko Sensoli", "ranking": 1735 }, { "player_name": "Giorgos Masouras", "ranking": 1736 }, { "player_name": "Ramiro González", "ranking": 1737 }, { "player_name": "Ho-yeong Seong", "ranking": 1738 }, { "player_name": "Bekzod Sulaymonov", "ranking": 1739 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Muhriddin Pazildinov", "ranking": 1741 }, { "player_name": "Vicente Vega", "ranking": 1742 }, { "player_name": "Enes Mahmutović", "ranking": 1743 }, { "player_name": "Ľubomír Šatka", "ranking": 1744 }, { "player_name": "Myeong-heui Choi", "ranking": 1745 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.784, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 32, "data_confidence": 0.784, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 24.88, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.316, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9989, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 34.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (32 historical appearances) to 24.9 expected mins (appearance prob 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"name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.013803 } ], "others_margin": -0.041948 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5855464935302734, "model_output": 0.5855, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7585 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.017 } ], "others": -0.0352, "total": 0.5855, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.791068 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.039956 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.037625 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.036474 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.027727 } ], "others_margin": -0.058264 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3136189579963684, "model_output": 0.3136, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1951 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.478 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0497, "total": 0.3136, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.829106 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.052135 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.045915 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039969 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.027465 } ], "others_margin": -0.147133 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.582412600517273, "model_output": 1.5824, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2072 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1014 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0651 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0633 } ], "others": 0.0822, "total": 1.5824, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.038999 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.080592 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.048485 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.044029 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.043091 } ], "others_margin": 0.053369 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5645778179168701, "model_output": 0.5646, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8324 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0664 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0216 } ], "others": 0.0113, "total": 0.5646, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.935825 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.131974 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.06926 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052126 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039896 } ], "others_margin": 0.020245 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.10755758732557297, "model_output": 0.1076, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1899 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0925 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0717, "total": 0.1076, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.189885 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.092451 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016877 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013208 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.010613 } ], "others_margin": -0.071883 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.738800525665283, "model_output": 6.7388, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": 0.0102, "total": 6.7388, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017025 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016288 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016025 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.010757 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01006 } ], "others_margin": 0.010176 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9989, quality 0.478)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3375, "tackles": 0.5849, "tackles_won": 0.3133, "clearances": 1.5807, "aerial_won": 0.564, "total_shots": 0.1075, "rating": 6.7388, "minutes": 24.35, "total_pass": 10.0611, "accurate_pass": 8.2998, "duels_won": 0.7244, "total_long_balls": 0.8335, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1406, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5934, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7403, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5595, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3315, "possession_lost": 2.1849, "dispossessed": 0.1946, "duels_lost": 0.8471, "aerial_lost": 0.6525, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6181, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2693, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2104, "total_progression": 0.0768, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1075 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6300000, "quality_factor": 0.4781, "boost_factor": 0.9989, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0199)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3387, "tackles": 0.5849, "tackles_won": 0.3134, "clearances": 1.5807, "aerial_won": 0.564, "total_shots": 0.1054, "rating": 6.7388, "minutes": 24.35, "total_pass": 10.0611, "accurate_pass": 8.2998, "duels_won": 0.7244, "total_long_balls": 0.8335, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1406, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5934, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7403, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5595, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3315, "possession_lost": 2.1849, "dispossessed": 0.1946, "duels_lost": 0.8471, "aerial_lost": 0.6525, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6181, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0048, "fouls_drawn": 0.0016, "blocks": 0.2693, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2104, "total_progression": 0.0768, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1075 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0199, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2706, "prior_reliability": 0.2267, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.4 to 24.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", 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], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0049 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0035 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0043, "total": 0.0546, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.606904 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.133091 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.102662 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.066768 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.063556 } ], "others_margin": 0.084865 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.20408284664154053, "model_output": 0.2041, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1344 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0093, "total": 0.2041, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549343 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.087595 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.081433 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.073917 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.055653 } ], "others_margin": -0.044565 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.509556233882904, "model_output": 0.5096, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5069 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0984 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0545 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0281 } ], "others": 0.0749, "total": 0.5096, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506936 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.098413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.054549 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.028704 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.028087 } ], "others_margin": 0.074804 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.680523872375488, "model_output": 6.6805, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0933 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0316, "total": 6.6805, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.093302 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.034794 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021014 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011821 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.007951 } ], "others_margin": -0.031641 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0001, quality 0.507)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3363, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "expected_goals": 0.0493, "goals": 0.0546, "goal_rate": 0.0546, "shots_on_target": 0.2041, "total_shots": 0.5096, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 13.05, "total_pass": 7.2671, "accurate_pass": 5.5356, "duels_won": 0.4614, "total_long_balls": 0.883, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9841, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7242, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8114, "crosses_total": 1.1561, "crosses_accurate": 0.0365, "touches": 11.2063, "possession_lost": 3.7168, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.9055, "aerial_won": 0.0866, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0889, "tackles": 0.181, "clearances": 0.0192, "total_contest": 0.1786, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1789, "fouls_drawn": 0.1938, "blocks": 0.1347, "big_chances_created": 0.0138, "big_chances_missed": 0.1425, "xgot": 0.0413, "ball_carries": 3.0703, "total_progression": 7.6894, "progressive_carries": 0.2926, "shots_off_target": 0.3055 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8700000, "quality_factor": 0.5071, "boost_factor": 1.0001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.1 to 12.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assists": 0.0467, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "expected_goals": 0.0461, "goals": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.0386, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.21, "projection_minutes": 13.05, "minutes_scale": 0.9356, "appearance_probability": 0.698 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assists": 0.0467, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "expected_goals": 0.0461, "goals": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.0386, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0461, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.0386, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.3010, xG scale 0.9646, xA scale 0.9646, team xA 0.85 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.026, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.052, "creation_factor": 1.2287 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.255, "squad_xg_sum": 1.301, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8767, "team_expected_assists": 0.8457, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6739, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9646, "xa_scale": 0.9646, "opponent_lambda": 1.729, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.698 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0461, "after": 0.031 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0287, "after": 0.0193 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.026, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.052, "creation_factor": 1.2287, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4159, "fifa_rank": 3517.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.026, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0303, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.052, "creation_factor": 1.2287, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0303, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "scorer_weight": 0.0326, "squad_weight_total": 1.3959, "weight_share": 0.0234, "finishing_factor": 1.052, "appearance_weight": 0.698, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.3544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3544, "runner_up": "Gonçalo Guedes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.026, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0303, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.019, "finishing_factor": 1.052, "creation_factor": 1.2287, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.019, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "provider_weight": 0.0237, "squad_weight_total": 0.8785, "weight_share": 0.027, "creation_factor": 1.2287, "appearance_weight": 0.698, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonçalo Guedes", "weight": 0.1642, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1642, "runner_up": "Carlos Soler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1308, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Brais Méndez": { "player_id": 845385, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 184, "market_value": 7800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assist_rate": 0.071, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.1002, 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0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1095 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0158 } ], "others": 0.0229, "total": 6.7945, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.109458 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033359 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022556 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.018695 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.01577 } ], "others_margin": 0.022884 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.496)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.479, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "assists": 0.0643, "assist_rate": 0.0643, "expected_goals": 0.109, "goals": 0.0907, "goal_rate": 0.0907, "shots_on_target": 0.3106, "total_shots": 0.8017, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 20.1, "total_pass": 13.0807, "accurate_pass": 10.5476, "duels_won": 2.0056, "total_long_balls": 0.507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3318, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0528, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4948, "crosses_total": 1.1801, "crosses_accurate": 0.4874, "touches": 19.9756, "possession_lost": 5.1929, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.5274, "aerial_won": 0.4988, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8015, "tackles": 0.928, "clearances": 0.5037, "total_contest": 0.3119, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6202, "fouls_drawn": 0.5788, "blocks": 0.1076, "big_chances_created": 0.1167, "big_chances_missed": 0.0717, "xgot": 0.352, "ball_carries": 4.7853, "total_progression": 4.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.3603, "shots_off_target": 0.4911 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7800000, "quality_factor": 0.4963, "boost_factor": 0.9996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.1 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0653, "assists": 0.071, "assist_rate": 0.071, "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goals": 0.1002, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1751, "crosses_total": 1.3037, "crosses_accurate": 0.5385, "touches": 22.0678, "possession_lost": 5.7368, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.6874, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8854, "tackles": 1.0252, "clearances": 0.5565, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6852, "fouls_drawn": 0.6394, "blocks": 0.1189, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0792, "xgot": 0.3889, "ball_carries": 5.2865, "total_progression": 4.5244, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.5425, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.21, "projection_minutes": 20.1, "minutes_scale": 1.1047, "appearance_probability": 0.509 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0653, "assists": 0.071, "assist_rate": 0.071, "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goals": 0.1002, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1751, "crosses_total": 1.3037, "crosses_accurate": 0.5385, "touches": 22.0678, "possession_lost": 5.7368, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.6874, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8854, "tackles": 1.0252, "clearances": 0.5565, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6852, "fouls_drawn": 0.6394, "blocks": 0.1189, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0792, "xgot": 0.3889, "ball_carries": 5.2865, "total_progression": 4.5244, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.5425, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0653, "assist_rate": 0.071, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1751, "crosses_total": 1.3037, "crosses_accurate": 0.5385, "touches": 22.0678, "possession_lost": 5.7368, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.6874, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8854, "tackles": 1.0252, "clearances": 0.5565, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6852, "fouls_drawn": 0.6394, "blocks": 0.1189, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0792, "xgot": 0.3889, "ball_carries": 5.2865, "total_progression": 4.5244, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.5425, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.3010, xG scale 0.9646, xA scale 0.9646, team xA 0.85 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assist_rate": 0.071, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1751, "crosses_total": 1.3037, "crosses_accurate": 0.5385, "touches": 22.0678, "possession_lost": 5.7368, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.6874, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8854, "tackles": 1.0252, "clearances": 0.5565, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6852, "fouls_drawn": 0.6394, "blocks": 0.1189, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0792, "xgot": 0.1909, "ball_carries": 5.2865, "total_progression": 4.5244, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.5425, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8815, "creation_factor": 1.0494 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.255, "squad_xg_sum": 1.301, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8767, "team_expected_assists": 0.8457, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6739, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9646, "xa_scale": 0.9646, "opponent_lambda": 1.729, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.509 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1204, "after": 0.0591 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0653, "after": 0.0321 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assist_rate": 0.071, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1751, "crosses_total": 1.3037, "crosses_accurate": 0.5385, "touches": 22.0678, "possession_lost": 5.7368, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.6874, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8854, "tackles": 1.0252, "clearances": 0.5565, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6852, "fouls_drawn": 0.6394, "blocks": 0.1189, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0792, "xgot": 0.1909, "ball_carries": 5.2865, "total_progression": 4.5244, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.5425, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8815, "creation_factor": 1.0494, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2265, "fifa_rank": 1221.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assist_rate": 0.071, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1751, "crosses_total": 1.3037, "crosses_accurate": 0.5385, "touches": 22.0678, "possession_lost": 5.7368, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.6874, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8854, "tackles": 1.0252, "clearances": 0.5565, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6852, "fouls_drawn": 0.6394, "blocks": 0.1189, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0792, "xgot": 0.1909, "ball_carries": 5.2865, "total_progression": 4.5244, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.5425, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0558, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8815, "creation_factor": 1.0494, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "scorer_weight": 0.0521, "squad_weight_total": 1.3959, "weight_share": 0.0373, "finishing_factor": 0.8815, "appearance_weight": 0.509, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.3544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3544, "runner_up": "Gonçalo Guedes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assist_rate": 0.071, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1751, "crosses_total": 1.3037, "crosses_accurate": 0.5385, "touches": 22.0678, "possession_lost": 5.7368, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.6874, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8854, "tackles": 1.0252, "clearances": 0.5565, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6852, "fouls_drawn": 0.6394, "blocks": 0.1189, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0792, "xgot": 0.1909, "ball_carries": 5.2865, "total_progression": 4.5244, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.5425, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0558, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0311, "finishing_factor": 0.8815, "creation_factor": 1.0494, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0311, "assist_rate": 0.071, "provider_weight": 0.0337, "squad_weight_total": 0.8785, "weight_share": 0.0383, "creation_factor": 1.0494, "appearance_weight": 0.509, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonçalo Guedes", "weight": 0.1642, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1642, "runner_up": "Carlos Soler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1308, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Takefusa Kubo": { "player_id": 880218, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 174, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0196, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0025, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, 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"name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0232 } ], "others": 0.0361, "total": 0.6697, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.366098 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.145468 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.054497 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.041156 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.037344 } ], "others_margin": 0.055218 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.697710037231445, "model_output": 6.6977, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.078 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0055, "total": 6.6977, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078035 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016659 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009258 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.00703 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.006504 } ], "others_margin": -0.005516 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0584, "goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "shots_on_target": 0.1893, "total_shots": 0.531, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "key_pass": 0.6735, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 24.26, "total_pass": 8.192, "accurate_pass": 6.7579, "duels_won": 2.0591, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1238, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0049, "crosses_total": 0.4764, "crosses_accurate": 0.1206, "touches": 13.9778, "possession_lost": 3.6089, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.4811, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 1.214, "won_contest": 0.7648, "ball_recovery": 1.067, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1741, "fouls_drawn": 0.517, "assists": 0.1206, "assist_rate": 0.1206, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4588, "tackles": 0.7032, "clearances": 0.1025, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1206, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0074, "offsides": 0.1799, "ball_carries": 4.7805, "total_progression": 14.2496, "progressive_carries": 0.9314, "shots_off_target": 0.3417 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0058, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0142)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0584, "goals": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "shots_on_target": 0.1866, "total_shots": 0.5269, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "key_pass": 0.6735, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 24.26, "total_pass": 8.192, "accurate_pass": 6.7579, "duels_won": 2.0591, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1238, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0049, "crosses_total": 0.4763, "crosses_accurate": 0.1206, "touches": 13.9778, "possession_lost": 3.6089, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.4811, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 1.214, "won_contest": 0.7648, "ball_recovery": 1.067, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1766, "fouls_drawn": 0.518, "assists": 0.1189, "assist_rate": 0.1189, "interceptions": 0.0017, "tackles_won": 0.4556, "tackles": 0.7032, "clearances": 0.1025, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1206, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0074, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 4.7805, "total_progression": 14.2496, "progressive_carries": 0.9314, "shots_off_target": 0.3417 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0142, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2696, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.3 to 18.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.45)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0455, "goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assists": 0.0926, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.89, "projection_minutes": 24.26, "minutes_scale": 0.7786, "appearance_probability": 0.447 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0455, "goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assists": 0.0926, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.3010, xG scale 0.9646, xA scale 0.9646, team xA 0.85 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0196, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9382, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.255, "squad_xg_sum": 1.301, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8767, "team_expected_assists": 0.8457, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6739, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9646, "xa_scale": 0.9646, "opponent_lambda": 1.729, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.447 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0455, "after": 0.0196 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0432, "after": 0.0186 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0196, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9382, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1228, "fifa_rank": 757.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0196, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0192, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9382, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0192, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "scorer_weight": 0.0184, "squad_weight_total": 1.3959, "weight_share": 0.0132, "finishing_factor": 0.9382, "appearance_weight": 0.447, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.3544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3544, "runner_up": "Gonçalo Guedes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0196, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0192, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0182, "finishing_factor": 0.9382, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0182, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "provider_weight": 0.0232, "squad_weight_total": 0.8785, "weight_share": 0.0265, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.447, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonçalo Guedes", "weight": 0.1642, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1642, "runner_up": "Carlos Soler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1308, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Orri Óskarsson": { "player_id": 1026015, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 186, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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-0.0288, "total": 6.6548, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068955 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.013904 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.013122 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010151 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009706 } ], "others_margin": -0.028931 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1647, "goals": 0.1703, "goal_rate": 0.1703, "shots_on_target": 0.4457, "total_shots": 1.1368, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "key_pass": 0.2599, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 24.35, "total_pass": 5.2127, "accurate_pass": 3.1658, "duels_won": 0.887, "total_long_balls": 0.2277, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0624, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4031, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7078, "crosses_total": 0.1215, "crosses_accurate": 0.1015, "touches": 8.7895, "possession_lost": 3.6256, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.6994, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.3931, "won_contest": 0.0624, "ball_recovery": 0.619, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7459, "fouls_drawn": 0.0624, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0326, "tackles_won": 0.1007, "tackles": 0.1007, "clearances": 0.1219, "blocks": 0.1194, "big_chances_created": 0.1215, "big_chances_missed": 0.083, "xgot": 0.0829, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.4279, "total_progression": 9.9384, "progressive_carries": 0.4003, "shots_off_target": 0.6911 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.4 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1765, "goals": 0.1825, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.0888, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.1, "projection_minutes": 24.35, "minutes_scale": 1.0718, "appearance_probability": 0.595 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1765, "goals": 0.1825, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.0888, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1765, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.0888, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.3010, xG scale 0.9646, xA scale 0.9646, team xA 0.85 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.051, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.255, "squad_xg_sum": 1.301, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8767, "team_expected_assists": 0.8457, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6739, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9646, "xa_scale": 0.9646, "opponent_lambda": 1.729, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.595 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1765, "after": 0.1013 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0138, "after": 0.0079 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.051, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3712, "fifa_rank": 2909.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.051, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0931, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0931, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "scorer_weight": 0.104, "squad_weight_total": 1.3959, "weight_share": 0.0745, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.3544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3544, "runner_up": "Gonçalo Guedes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.051, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0931, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0063, "squad_weight_total": 0.8785, "weight_share": 0.0072, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonçalo Guedes", "weight": 0.1642, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1642, "runner_up": "Carlos Soler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1308, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Arsen Zakharyan": { "player_id": 1066045, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 183, "market_value": 8700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 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"contribution": -0.0984 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0545 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0281 } ], "others": 0.0749, "total": 0.5096, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506936 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.098413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.054549 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.028704 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.028087 } ], "others_margin": 0.074804 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.680523872375488, "model_output": 6.6805, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0933 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0316, "total": 6.6805, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.093302 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.034794 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021014 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011821 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.007951 } ], "others_margin": -0.031641 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0001, quality 0.507)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3363, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "expected_goals": 0.0493, "goals": 0.0546, "goal_rate": 0.0546, "shots_on_target": 0.2041, "total_shots": 0.5096, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 13.05, "total_pass": 7.2671, "accurate_pass": 5.5356, "duels_won": 0.4614, "total_long_balls": 0.883, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9841, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7242, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8114, "crosses_total": 1.1561, "crosses_accurate": 0.0365, "touches": 11.2063, "possession_lost": 3.7168, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.9055, "aerial_won": 0.0866, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0889, "tackles": 0.181, "clearances": 0.0192, "total_contest": 0.1786, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1789, "fouls_drawn": 0.1938, "blocks": 0.1347, "big_chances_created": 0.0138, "big_chances_missed": 0.1425, "xgot": 0.0413, "ball_carries": 3.0703, "total_progression": 7.6894, "progressive_carries": 0.2926, "shots_off_target": 0.3055 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8700000, "quality_factor": 0.5071, "boost_factor": 1.0001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.1 to 12.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assists": 0.0467, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "expected_goals": 0.0461, "goals": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.0386, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.21, "projection_minutes": 13.05, "minutes_scale": 0.9356, "appearance_probability": 0.698 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assists": 0.0467, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "expected_goals": 0.0461, "goals": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.0386, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0461, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.0386, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.3010, xG scale 0.9646, xA scale 0.9646, team xA 0.85 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.026, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.052, "creation_factor": 1.2287 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.255, "squad_xg_sum": 1.301, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8767, "team_expected_assists": 0.8457, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6739, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9646, "xa_scale": 0.9646, "opponent_lambda": 1.729, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.698 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0461, "after": 0.031 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0287, "after": 0.0193 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.026, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.052, "creation_factor": 1.2287, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4159, "fifa_rank": 3517.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.026, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0303, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.052, "creation_factor": 1.2287, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0303, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "scorer_weight": 0.0326, "squad_weight_total": 1.3959, "weight_share": 0.0234, "finishing_factor": 1.052, "appearance_weight": 0.698, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.3544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3544, "runner_up": "Gonçalo Guedes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3147, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.031, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.4768, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.21, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 5.1793, "duels_won": 0.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.8262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5356, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8564, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6132, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5661, "crosses_total": 1.0817, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 10.485, "possession_lost": 3.4776, "dispossessed": 0.1973, "duels_lost": 0.8472, "aerial_won": 0.081, "aerial_lost": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0832, "tackles": 0.1693, "clearances": 0.018, "total_contest": 0.1671, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.1674, "fouls_drawn": 0.1813, "blocks": 0.126, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.026, "ball_carries": 2.8727, "total_progression": 7.1945, "progressive_carries": 0.2738, "shots_off_target": 0.2858, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.698, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.21, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 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"name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0169 } ], "others": -0.068, "total": 0.2583, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.477085 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.090206 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.073277 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.060463 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.050564 } ], "others_margin": -0.233481 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.654808044433594, "model_output": 6.6548, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.069 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0288, "total": 6.6548, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068955 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.013904 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.013122 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010151 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009706 } ], "others_margin": -0.028931 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1647, "goals": 0.1703, "goal_rate": 0.1703, "shots_on_target": 0.4457, "total_shots": 1.1368, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "key_pass": 0.2599, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 24.35, "total_pass": 5.2127, "accurate_pass": 3.1658, "duels_won": 0.887, "total_long_balls": 0.2277, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0624, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4031, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7078, "crosses_total": 0.1215, "crosses_accurate": 0.1015, "touches": 8.7895, "possession_lost": 3.6256, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.6994, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.3931, "won_contest": 0.0624, "ball_recovery": 0.619, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7459, "fouls_drawn": 0.0624, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0326, "tackles_won": 0.1007, "tackles": 0.1007, "clearances": 0.1219, "blocks": 0.1194, "big_chances_created": 0.1215, "big_chances_missed": 0.083, "xgot": 0.0829, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.4279, "total_progression": 9.9384, "progressive_carries": 0.4003, "shots_off_target": 0.6911 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.4 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1765, "goals": 0.1825, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.0888, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.1, "projection_minutes": 24.35, "minutes_scale": 1.0718, "appearance_probability": 0.595 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1765, "goals": 0.1825, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.0888, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1765, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.0888, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.3010, xG scale 0.9646, xA scale 0.9646, team xA 0.85 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.051, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.255, "squad_xg_sum": 1.301, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8767, "team_expected_assists": 0.8457, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6739, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9646, "xa_scale": 0.9646, "opponent_lambda": 1.729, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.595 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1765, "after": 0.1013 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0138, "after": 0.0079 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.051, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3712, "fifa_rank": 2909.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.051, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0931, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0931, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "scorer_weight": 0.104, "squad_weight_total": 1.3959, "weight_share": 0.0745, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.3544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3544, "runner_up": "Gonçalo Guedes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4777, "total_shots": 1.2184, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "key_pass": 0.2786, "rating": 6.6548, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.5868, "accurate_pass": 3.393, "duels_won": 0.9507, "total_long_balls": 0.244, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8304, "crosses_total": 0.1302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1088, "touches": 9.4203, "possession_lost": 3.8858, "dispossessed": 0.6132, "duels_lost": 2.8931, "aerial_lost": 0.8537, "total_contest": 0.4213, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6634, "challenges_lost": 0.2183, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.1079, "tackles": 0.1079, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.128, "big_chances_created": 0.1302, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.051, "offsides": 0.3417, "ball_carries": 1.5304, "total_progression": 10.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.429, "shots_off_target": 0.7407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0931, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "finishing_factor": 1.0265, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { 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}, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0074 } ], "others": 0.0139, "total": 0.3107, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.590386 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.22495 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.210481 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060858 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.02533 } ], "others_margin": 0.045951 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8020121455192566, "model_output": 0.802, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5204 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2755 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0223 } ], "others": -0.0514, "total": 0.802, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.520413 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.275484 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.061879 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.029248 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.022336 } ], "others_margin": -0.051456 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.794490814208984, "model_output": 6.7945, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1095 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0158 } ], "others": 0.0229, "total": 6.7945, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.109458 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033359 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022556 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.018695 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.01577 } ], "others_margin": 0.022884 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.496)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.479, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "assists": 0.0643, "assist_rate": 0.0643, "expected_goals": 0.109, "goals": 0.0907, "goal_rate": 0.0907, "shots_on_target": 0.3106, "total_shots": 0.8017, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 20.1, "total_pass": 13.0807, "accurate_pass": 10.5476, "duels_won": 2.0056, "total_long_balls": 0.507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3318, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0528, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4948, "crosses_total": 1.1801, "crosses_accurate": 0.4874, "touches": 19.9756, "possession_lost": 5.1929, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.5274, "aerial_won": 0.4988, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8015, "tackles": 0.928, "clearances": 0.5037, "total_contest": 0.3119, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6202, "fouls_drawn": 0.5788, "blocks": 0.1076, "big_chances_created": 0.1167, "big_chances_missed": 0.0717, "xgot": 0.352, "ball_carries": 4.7853, "total_progression": 4.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.3603, "shots_off_target": 0.4911 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7800000, "quality_factor": 0.4963, "boost_factor": 0.9996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.1 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0653, "assists": 0.071, "assist_rate": 0.071, "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goals": 0.1002, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1751, "crosses_total": 1.3037, "crosses_accurate": 0.5385, "touches": 22.0678, "possession_lost": 5.7368, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.6874, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8854, "tackles": 1.0252, "clearances": 0.5565, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6852, "fouls_drawn": 0.6394, "blocks": 0.1189, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0792, "xgot": 0.3889, "ball_carries": 5.2865, "total_progression": 4.5244, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.5425, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.21, "projection_minutes": 20.1, "minutes_scale": 1.1047, "appearance_probability": 0.509 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0653, "assists": 0.071, "assist_rate": 0.071, "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goals": 0.1002, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1751, "crosses_total": 1.3037, "crosses_accurate": 0.5385, "touches": 22.0678, "possession_lost": 5.7368, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.6874, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8854, "tackles": 1.0252, "clearances": 0.5565, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6852, "fouls_drawn": 0.6394, "blocks": 0.1189, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0792, "xgot": 0.3889, "ball_carries": 5.2865, "total_progression": 4.5244, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.5425, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0653, "assist_rate": 0.071, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1751, "crosses_total": 1.3037, "crosses_accurate": 0.5385, "touches": 22.0678, "possession_lost": 5.7368, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.6874, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8854, "tackles": 1.0252, "clearances": 0.5565, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6852, "fouls_drawn": 0.6394, "blocks": 0.1189, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0792, "xgot": 0.3889, "ball_carries": 5.2865, "total_progression": 4.5244, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.5425, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.3010, xG scale 0.9646, xA scale 0.9646, team xA 0.85 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assist_rate": 0.071, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1751, "crosses_total": 1.3037, "crosses_accurate": 0.5385, "touches": 22.0678, "possession_lost": 5.7368, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.6874, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8854, "tackles": 1.0252, "clearances": 0.5565, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6852, "fouls_drawn": 0.6394, "blocks": 0.1189, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0792, "xgot": 0.1909, "ball_carries": 5.2865, "total_progression": 4.5244, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.5425, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8815, "creation_factor": 1.0494 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.255, "squad_xg_sum": 1.301, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8767, "team_expected_assists": 0.8457, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6739, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9646, "xa_scale": 0.9646, "opponent_lambda": 1.729, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.509 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1204, "after": 0.0591 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0653, "after": 0.0321 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assist_rate": 0.071, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1751, "crosses_total": 1.3037, "crosses_accurate": 0.5385, "touches": 22.0678, "possession_lost": 5.7368, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.6874, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8854, "tackles": 1.0252, "clearances": 0.5565, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6852, "fouls_drawn": 0.6394, "blocks": 0.1189, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0792, "xgot": 0.1909, "ball_carries": 5.2865, "total_progression": 4.5244, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.5425, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8815, "creation_factor": 1.0494, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2265, "fifa_rank": 1221.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assist_rate": 0.071, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1751, "crosses_total": 1.3037, "crosses_accurate": 0.5385, "touches": 22.0678, "possession_lost": 5.7368, "dispossessed": 0.3551, "duels_lost": 1.6874, "aerial_won": 0.551, "aerial_lost": 0.2404, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8854, "tackles": 1.0252, "clearances": 0.5565, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6852, "fouls_drawn": 0.6394, "blocks": 0.1189, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0792, "xgot": 0.1909, "ball_carries": 5.2865, "total_progression": 4.5244, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.5425, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.509, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0558, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8815, "creation_factor": 1.0494, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "scorer_weight": 0.0521, "squad_weight_total": 1.3959, "weight_share": 0.0373, "finishing_factor": 0.8815, "appearance_weight": 0.509, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.3544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3544, "runner_up": "Gonçalo Guedes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5292, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assist_rate": 0.071, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3431, "total_shots": 0.8857, "rating": 6.7945, "minutes": 22.21, "total_pass": 14.4508, "accurate_pass": 11.6524, "duels_won": 2.2157, "total_long_balls": 0.5601, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3666, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4773, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, 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"keyPass", "contribution": 0.0018 } ], "others": 0.0018, "total": 0.0552, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.390304 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.129177 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.109492 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.079442 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.034613 } ], "others_margin": 0.032462 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6696508526802063, "model_output": 0.6697, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2121 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0751 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0232 } ], "others": 0.0361, "total": 0.6697, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.366098 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.145468 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.054497 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.041156 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.037344 } ], "others_margin": 0.055218 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.697710037231445, "model_output": 6.6977, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.078 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0055, "total": 6.6977, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078035 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016659 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009258 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.00703 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.006504 } ], "others_margin": -0.005516 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0584, "goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "shots_on_target": 0.1893, "total_shots": 0.531, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "key_pass": 0.6735, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 24.26, "total_pass": 8.192, "accurate_pass": 6.7579, "duels_won": 2.0591, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1238, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0049, "crosses_total": 0.4764, "crosses_accurate": 0.1206, "touches": 13.9778, "possession_lost": 3.6089, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.4811, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 1.214, "won_contest": 0.7648, "ball_recovery": 1.067, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1741, "fouls_drawn": 0.517, "assists": 0.1206, "assist_rate": 0.1206, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4588, "tackles": 0.7032, "clearances": 0.1025, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1206, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0074, "offsides": 0.1799, "ball_carries": 4.7805, "total_progression": 14.2496, "progressive_carries": 0.9314, "shots_off_target": 0.3417 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0058, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0142)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0584, "goals": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "shots_on_target": 0.1866, "total_shots": 0.5269, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "key_pass": 0.6735, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 24.26, "total_pass": 8.192, "accurate_pass": 6.7579, "duels_won": 2.0591, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1238, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0049, "crosses_total": 0.4763, "crosses_accurate": 0.1206, "touches": 13.9778, "possession_lost": 3.6089, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.4811, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 1.214, "won_contest": 0.7648, "ball_recovery": 1.067, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1766, "fouls_drawn": 0.518, "assists": 0.1189, "assist_rate": 0.1189, "interceptions": 0.0017, "tackles_won": 0.4556, "tackles": 0.7032, "clearances": 0.1025, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1206, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0074, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 4.7805, "total_progression": 14.2496, "progressive_carries": 0.9314, "shots_off_target": 0.3417 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0142, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2696, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.3 to 18.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.45)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0455, "goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assists": 0.0926, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.89, "projection_minutes": 24.26, "minutes_scale": 0.7786, "appearance_probability": 0.447 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0455, "goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assists": 0.0926, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.3010, xG scale 0.9646, xA scale 0.9646, team xA 0.85 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0196, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9382, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.255, "squad_xg_sum": 1.301, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8767, "team_expected_assists": 0.8457, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6739, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9646, "xa_scale": 0.9646, "opponent_lambda": 1.729, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.447 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0455, "after": 0.0196 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0432, "after": 0.0186 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0196, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9382, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1228, "fifa_rank": 757.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0196, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0192, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9382, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0192, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "scorer_weight": 0.0184, "squad_weight_total": 1.3959, "weight_share": 0.0132, "finishing_factor": 0.9382, "appearance_weight": 0.447, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.3544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3544, "runner_up": "Gonçalo Guedes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2684 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0196, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1453, "total_shots": 0.4114, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.5244, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 18.89, "total_pass": 6.3787, "accurate_pass": 5.262, "duels_won": 1.6033, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8971, "crosses_total": 0.3709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0939, "touches": 10.8838, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1.1533, "aerial_lost": 0.2541, "total_contest": 0.9453, "won_contest": 0.5955, "ball_recovery": 0.8308, "challenges_lost": 0.1259, "fouls": 0.1375, "fouls_drawn": 0.4033, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0013, "tackles_won": 0.3548, "tackles": 0.5475, "clearances": 0.0798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0939, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "offsides": 0.1773, "ball_carries": 3.7223, "total_progression": 11.0954, "progressive_carries": 0.7252, "shots_off_target": 0.2661, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0192, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0182, "finishing_factor": 0.9382, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0182, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "provider_weight": 0.0232, "squad_weight_total": 0.8785, "weight_share": 0.0265, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.447, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonçalo Guedes", "weight": 0.1642, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1642, "runner_up": "Carlos Soler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1308, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.25, "expected_assists": 0.85, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 526, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.94, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Nico Williams", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Jon Martin" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.193, "xg_contribution": 0.1568, "xg_multiplier": 0.9893, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.807 }, { "player": "Jon Martin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.807 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nico Williams (ST) is evenly matched against Mamadou Sarr and Jon Martin in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.157 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Álex Berenguer", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Jon Martin" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1248, "xg_multiplier": 0.7289, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jon Martin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álex Berenguer (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Mamadou Sarr and Jon Martin in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.73 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.125 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Maroan Sannadi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Jon Martin" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1531, "xg_multiplier": 0.8198, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jon Martin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Maroan Sannadi (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Mamadou Sarr and Jon Martin in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.153 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Iñaki Williams", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Jon Martin" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2584, "xg_multiplier": 0.8195, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jon Martin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñaki Williams (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Mamadou Sarr and Jon Martin in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.258 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mikel Jauregizar", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Beñat Turrientes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.529, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.489, "xg_contribution": 0.0755, "xg_multiplier": 1.1013, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Turrientes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 10600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.511 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Jauregizar (CDM) is slightly favored against Beñat Turrientes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €11M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Beñat Turrientes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.529, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.362, "xg_contribution": 0.0311, "xg_multiplier": 0.915, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Turrientes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 10600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.638 } ], "duel_analysis": "Beñat Gerenabarrena (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Beñat Turrientes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.031 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Carlos Soler", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Yuri Berchiche" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.496, "xg_contribution": 0.1374, "xg_multiplier": 1.0234, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yuri Berchiche", "role": "RB", "market_value": 910000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.504 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Soler (LW) is evenly matched against Yuri Berchiche in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.137 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Luka Sučić", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 16300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.593, "defenders": [ "Mikel Jauregizar", "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "xg_contribution": 0.1567, "xg_multiplier": 1.061, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mikel Jauregizar", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 }, { "player": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luka Sučić (CAM) is slightly favored against Mikel Jauregizar and Beñat Gerenabarrena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.157 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Dani Vivian" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.558, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.217, "xg_contribution": 0.2937, "xg_multiplier": 1.0246, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 }, { "player": "Dani Vivian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Oyarzabal (ST) is evenly matched against Aymeric Laporte and Dani Vivian in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.294 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gonçalo Guedes", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Dani Vivian" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.558, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2226, "xg_multiplier": 0.865, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dani Vivian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonçalo Guedes (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Aymeric Laporte and Dani Vivian in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.223 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Beñat Turrientes", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.351, "xg_contribution": 0.0693, "xg_multiplier": 0.8987, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mikel Jauregizar", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.649 } ], "duel_analysis": "Beñat Turrientes (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mikel Jauregizar in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.424, "xg_contribution": 0.0325, "xg_multiplier": 1.0056, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mikel Jauregizar", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Gorrotxategi (CDM) is evenly matched against Mikel Jauregizar in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.55, "away_midfield_power": 0.6, "home_creative_power": 0.583, "away_creative_power": 0.569, "home_defensive_power": 0.559, "away_defensive_power": 0.52, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.479, "home_midfield_count": 2, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Mikel Jauregizar", "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Beñat Turrientes", "Jon Gorrotxategi", "Luka Sučić", "Carlos Soler" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Mikel Jauregizar vs Jon Gorrotxategi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.999, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.005 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.729, "away_lambda": 1.255, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Nico Williams": { "opponents": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Jon Martin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Álex Berenguer": { "opponents": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Jon Martin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Maroan Sannadi": { "opponents": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Jon Martin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iñaki Williams": { "opponents": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Jon Martin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mikel Jauregizar": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Turrientes", "Luka Sučić", "Jon Gorrotxategi" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Beñat Gerenabarrena": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Turrientes", "Luka Sučić", "Carlos Soler" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yuri Berchiche": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Soler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aymeric Laporte": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Gonçalo Guedes" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dani Vivian": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Gonçalo Guedes" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Unai Simón": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Gonçalo Guedes" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Hugo Rincón": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Mamadou Sarr": { "opponents": [ "Nico Williams", "Álex Berenguer", "Maroan Sannadi", "Iñaki Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Martin": { "opponents": [ "Nico Williams", "Álex Berenguer", "Maroan Sannadi", "Iñaki Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Beñat Turrientes": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Jauregizar", "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Soler": { "opponents": [ "Yuri Berchiche", "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Luka Sučić": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Jauregizar", "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "opponents": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Dani Vivian" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gonçalo Guedes": { "opponents": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Dani Vivian" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jon Gorrotxategi": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Álex Remiro": { "opponents": [ "Nico Williams", "Iñaki Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jon Aramburu": { "opponents": [ "Álex Berenguer" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Sergio Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Maroan Sannadi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Mikel Jauregizar vs Jon Gorrotxategi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.80, Away: 0.91. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9777, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1381, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.061, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9393, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9845, "home_midfield_factor": 0.999, "away_midfield_factor": 1.005, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.5326, "away_avg_quality": 0.5942, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0617, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.3214, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.1191, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.0375, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0728, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7997, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9373 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.999, "result": 0.9363 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9363 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.2564 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0291, "result": 1.2929 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9777, "result": 1.2641 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9393, "result": 1.1874 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1381, "result": 1.3255 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3255, "result": 1.3255, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0728, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.3255, "result": 1.3255 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3255 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1542, "result": 1.4792 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.5556, "result": 1.2686 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2686, "result": 1.269, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.396 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.396, "result": 1.396, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.396 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.396 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.396, "result": 1.396, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.225, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.729 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9122, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0217 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.005, "result": 1.0268 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0268 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0268 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0055, "result": 1.0324 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 0.9573 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9845, "result": 0.9425 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.061, "result": 1.0035 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0035, "result": 1.0035, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0728, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.0035, "result": 1.0035 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0035 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.223 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.5556, "result": 1.0708 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.0708, "result": 1.071, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.039 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.039, "result": 1.039, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.039 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.039 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.039, "result": 1.039, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.225, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.255 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1542, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Athletic Club", "away_squad": "Real Sociedad", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.75, "away_goals_per90": 0.75, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.556, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.556, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.396, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.039, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2686, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0708, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.225, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.729, "final_away_lambda": 1.255 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0291, "attack_index": 0.997, "defense_concede_index": 1.087, "form_multiplier": 0.98, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.51, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.64, "team_ppg": 1.35, "opponent_ppg": 1.7 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0055, "attack_index": 1.118, "defense_concede_index": 0.898, "form_multiplier": 1.02, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.69, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.36, "team_ppg": 1.7, "opponent_ppg": 1.35 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.269, Away 1.071). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.729, Away 1.255 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Athletic Club", "away_squad": "Real Sociedad", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.75, "away_goals_per90": 0.75, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.556, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.556, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.729, "away_lambda": 1.255, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.269, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.071 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.225, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-01T14:32:26Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }