{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Sevilla", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261101", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0922, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0737, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0922, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Sevilla", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2417, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.112 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0922 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0831 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0737 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0695 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0514, "0-1": 0.0831, "0-2": 0.0695, "0-3": 0.0384, "0-4": 0.0159, "0-5": 0.0053, "0-6": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.0663, "1-1": 0.112, "1-2": 0.0922, "1-3": 0.051, "1-4": 0.0211, "1-5": 0.007, "1-6": 0.0019, "2-0": 0.0445, "2-1": 0.0737, "2-2": 0.0611, "2-3": 0.0338, "2-4": 0.014, "2-5": 0.0046, "2-6": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.0197, "3-1": 0.0326, "3-2": 0.027, "3-3": 0.0149, "3-4": 0.0062, "3-5": 0.0021, "3-6": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0065, "4-1": 0.0108, "4-2": 0.009, "4-3": 0.005, "4-4": 0.0021, "4-5": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0017, "5-1": 0.0029, "5-2": 0.0024, "5-3": 0.0013, "5-4": 0.0005, "6-1": 0.0006, "6-2": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3063, "draw": 0.2417, "away_win": 0.452 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5732, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4268, "btts_yes": 0.5953, "btts_no": 0.4047, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1905, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2655 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.69, "MCR": 6.77, "ATR": 6.75, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.89, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 6.86 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Getafe vs Sevilla. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Getafe 3W-1D-6L vs Sevilla over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Martín Satriano, Lucas Stassin, Félix Correia", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Orel Mangala vs Lucien Agoumé will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 1.02. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.326, "away_lambda": 1.658, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 3, "away_wins": 6, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 0.9786, "away_multiplier": 1.0214 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.112, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3063, "draw": 0.2417, "away_win": 0.452 }, "favorite": "Sevilla", "favorite_win_probability": 0.452, "fair_spread": -0.332, "fair_total": 2.984, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.326, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.658, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5732, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5953, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1905, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2655, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Enes Ünal (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.2905, "probability": 0.2521, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Félix Correia (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.3205, "probability": 0.2742, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ramón Terrats (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.1533, "probability": 0.1421, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Gabriel Suazo (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.1844, "probability": 0.1684, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.984, "expected_total_shots": 28, "expected_total_passes": 691, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.7, "possession_home_pct": 48.1, "possession_away_pct": 51.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Sevilla", "favorite_win_probability": 0.452, "script": "Sevilla is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.33 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Getafe must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Sevilla lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Sevilla chance creation leans on Félix Correia against Davinchi, Djené in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Getafe: starters carry the main goal usage through Martín Satriano; bench watchlist: Christantus Uche, Mauro Arambarri, Ivan Azón.", "Sevilla: starters carry the main goal usage through Lucas Stassin, Félix Correia; bench watchlist: Akor Adams, Dodi Lukebakio, Rubén Vargas.", "Assist usage should flow through Dani Carvajal, Youssouf Fofana; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Sevilla tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Getafe is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Sevilla.", "Getafe wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Getafe": { "formation": "5-3-2", "players": { "Enes Ünal": { "player_id": 336655, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 6800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2905, "goal_rate": 0.2043, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0574, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7036, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 12.4716, "dispossessed": 1.7837, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2984, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9191, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés Castrin, Kike Salas", "opponent_faced": "Andrés Castrin, Kike Salas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2521, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0558, "finishing_factor": 0.9899, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421072, "match_date": "2026-10-19", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0663, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1533, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0392, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 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"league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3539, "combined_rank_score": 1506.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2191.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7036, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Enes Ünal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hugo Álvarez", "ranking": 3534 }, { "player_name": "Israel Reyes", "ranking": 3535 }, { "player_name": "Rocco Reitz", "ranking": 3536 }, { "player_name": "Chrislain Matsima", "ranking": 3537 }, { "player_name": "Yan Couto", "ranking": 3538 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": 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7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.17, gls/90: 0.4, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2253, "goals": 0.22, "goal_rate": 0.22, "shots_on_target": 0.6627, "total_shots": 1.926, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "key_pass": 0.5941, "rating": 6.7036, "minutes": 86.96, "total_pass": 14.0812, "accurate_pass": 9.1491, "duels_won": 5.9293, "total_long_balls": 0.3787, "accurate_long_balls": 0.174, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0212, "crosses_total": 0.5617, "crosses_accurate": 0.1069, "touches": 31.2933, "possession_lost": 12.4828, "dispossessed": 1.7853, "duels_lost": 7.9911, "aerial_lost": 2.5424, "total_contest": 1.4254, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7124, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 1.8593, "fouls_drawn": 1.4283, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 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}, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9991, quality 0.484)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2251, "goals": 0.2198, "goal_rate": 0.2198, "shots_on_target": 0.6621, "total_shots": 1.9243, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "key_pass": 0.5935, "rating": 6.7036, "minutes": 86.96, "total_pass": 14.0685, "accurate_pass": 9.1409, "duels_won": 5.924, "total_long_balls": 0.3784, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1738, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0149, "crosses_total": 0.5612, "crosses_accurate": 0.1068, "touches": 31.2651, "possession_lost": 12.4716, "dispossessed": 1.7837, "duels_lost": 7.9839, "aerial_lost": 2.5401, "total_contest": 1.4241, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7109, "challenges_lost": 0.3784, "fouls": 1.8576, "fouls_drawn": 1.427, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8121, 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}, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1893 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0385 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0331 } ], "others": -0.0303, "total": 0.7835, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.241174 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.049866 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.04744 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044507 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.039847 } ], "others_margin": -0.037723 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.799136161804199, "model_output": 6.7991, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.052 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": -0.027, "total": 6.7991, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052027 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.013099 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.01233 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.011745 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.011497 } ], "others_margin": -0.026914 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0011, quality 0.529)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2112, "goals": 0.234, "goal_rate": 0.234, "shots_on_target": 0.5952, "total_shots": 1.875, "expected_assists": 0.0694, "key_pass": 0.7844, "rating": 6.7991, "minutes": 77.26, "total_pass": 17.0807, "accurate_pass": 11.4913, "duels_won": 6.1681, "total_long_balls": 0.5739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2401, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9018, "crosses_total": 0.5521, "crosses_accurate": 0.211, "touches": 34.2953, "possession_lost": 12.1654, "dispossessed": 1.7584, "duels_lost": 7.4009, "aerial_lost": 2.714, "total_contest": 2.9412, "won_contest": 1.5008, "ball_recovery": 2.6691, "challenges_lost": 0.2799, "fouls": 1.4349, "fouls_drawn": 1.9834, "assists": 0.1211, "assist_rate": 0.1211, "interceptions": 0.5072, "tackles_won": 0.1909, "tackles": 1.1624, "clearances": 0.994, "blocks": 0.2085, "big_chances_created": 0.1658, "big_chances_missed": 0.0938, "xgot": 0.2644, "offsides": 0.0927, "ball_carries": 9.7613, "total_progression": 33.0736, "progressive_carries": 1.193, "shots_off_target": 1.2798 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10600000, "quality_factor": 0.5295, "boost_factor": 1.0011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0177)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2112, "goals": 0.2299, "goal_rate": 0.2299, "shots_on_target": 0.5903, "total_shots": 1.8752, "expected_assists": 0.0694, "key_pass": 0.7844, "rating": 6.7991, "minutes": 77.26, "total_pass": 17.0807, "accurate_pass": 11.4913, "duels_won": 6.1681, "total_long_balls": 0.5739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2401, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9018, 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"name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 6.7664, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035834 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026573 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.020174 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012435 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011974 } ], "others_margin": -0.035722 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0001, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.531, "expected_assists": 0.043, "assists": 0.0572, "assist_rate": 0.0572, "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goals": 0.0485, "goal_rate": 0.0485, "shots_on_target": 0.1655, "total_shots": 0.6875, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4455, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 0.3877, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4551, "tackles_won": 0.2326, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, "total_contest": 0.4873, "won_contest": 0.3616, "challenges_lost": 0.3583, "fouls": 2.091, "fouls_drawn": 0.9361, "blocks": 0.2408, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5292, "total_progression": 40.6688, "progressive_carries": 0.8325, "shots_off_target": 0.522 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.531, "expected_assists": 0.043, "assists": 0.0541, "assist_rate": 0.0541, "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.0459, "shots_on_target": 0.1565, "total_shots": 0.7027, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 0.3877, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4095, "tackles_won": 0.255, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, "total_contest": 0.4873, "won_contest": 0.3616, "challenges_lost": 0.3583, "fouls": 2.1001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9728, "blocks": 0.2408, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5292, "total_progression": 40.6688, "progressive_carries": 0.8325, "shots_off_target": 0.522 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0542, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9683, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 2.4551, "after": 2.4095 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9361, "after": 0.9728 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.4455, "after": 0.4214 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.2326, "after": 0.255 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6875, "after": 0.7027 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 2.091, "after": 2.1001 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1655, "after": 0.1565 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.531, "expected_assists": 0.043, "assists": 0.0541, "assist_rate": 0.0541, "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.0459, "shots_on_target": 0.1565, "total_shots": 0.7027, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 0.3877, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4095, "tackles_won": 0.255, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, "total_contest": 0.4873, "won_contest": 0.3616, "challenges_lost": 0.3583, "fouls": 2.1001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9728, "blocks": 0.2408, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5292, "total_progression": 40.6688, "progressive_carries": 0.8325, "shots_off_target": 0.522 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.531, "expected_assists": 0.043, "assists": 0.0541, "assist_rate": 0.0541, "expected_goals": 0.0385, "goals": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "total_shots": 0.6183, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4095, "tackles_won": 0.255, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, "total_contest": 0.4873, "won_contest": 0.3616, "challenges_lost": 0.3583, "fouls": 2.1001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9728, "blocks": 0.2408, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5292, "total_progression": 40.6688, "progressive_carries": 0.8325, "shots_off_target": 0.4593, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8799, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.338, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.338, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8799, "skill_edge": -0.0537, "height_edge": -0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.5172, "defender_skill": 0.6365, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "market_value": 18500000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.6365 } ], "xg_override": 0.0385 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3877, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7027, "after": 0.6183 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.522, "after": 0.4593 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1565, "after": 0.1377 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0459, "after": 0.0404 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0438, "after": 0.0385 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.531, "expected_assists": 0.043, "assist_rate": 0.0541, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0385, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "total_shots": 0.6183, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4095, "tackles_won": 0.255, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, "total_contest": 0.4873, "won_contest": 0.3616, "challenges_lost": 0.3583, "fouls": 2.1001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9728, "blocks": 0.2408, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5292, "total_progression": 40.6688, "progressive_carries": 0.8325, "shots_off_target": 0.4593, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8799, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.338, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9446, xG scale 1.4038, xA scale 1.4866, team xA 0.86 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.531, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "assist_rate": 0.0541, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.054, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "total_shots": 0.6183, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4095, "tackles_won": 0.255, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, "total_contest": 0.4873, "won_contest": 0.3616, "challenges_lost": 0.3583, "fouls": 2.1001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9728, "blocks": 0.2408, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5292, "total_progression": 40.6688, "progressive_carries": 0.8325, "shots_off_target": 0.4593, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8799, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.338, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0215, "creation_factor": 1.1194 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9446, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5798, "team_expected_assists": 0.8619, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4038, "xa_scale": 1.4866, "opponent_lambda": 1.658, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0385, "after": 0.054 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.043, "after": 0.0639 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.531, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "assist_rate": 0.0541, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.054, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "total_shots": 0.6183, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4095, "tackles_won": 0.255, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, "total_contest": 0.4873, "won_contest": 0.3616, "challenges_lost": 0.3583, "fouls": 2.1001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9728, "blocks": 0.2408, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5292, "total_progression": 40.6688, "progressive_carries": 0.8325, "shots_off_target": 0.4593, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8799, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.338, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0215, "creation_factor": 1.1194, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3486, "fifa_rank": 2250.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.531, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "assist_rate": 0.0541, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.054, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "total_shots": 0.6183, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4095, "tackles_won": 0.255, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, "total_contest": 0.4873, "won_contest": 0.3616, "challenges_lost": 0.3583, "fouls": 2.1001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9728, "blocks": 0.2408, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5292, "total_progression": 40.6688, "progressive_carries": 0.8325, "shots_off_target": 0.4593, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8799, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.338, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0526, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0215, "creation_factor": 1.1194, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0526, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "scorer_weight": 0.0552, "squad_weight_total": 1.327, "weight_share": 0.0416, "finishing_factor": 1.0215, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martín Satriano", "weight": 0.3051, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3051, "runner_up": "Enes Ünal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2876 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.531, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "assist_rate": 0.0541, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.054, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "total_shots": 0.6183, "rating": 6.7664, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, 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"margin": 0.387194 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.158286 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049381 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.043084 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.021986 } ], "others_margin": 0.097944 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.806293487548828, "model_output": 6.8063, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": 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1.4756, "after": 1.5052 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6917, "after": 1.7062 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.0806, "after": 2.0891 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8907, "after": 0.8972 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1242, "expected_assists": 0.1031, "assists": 0.1068, "assist_rate": 0.1068, "expected_goals": 0.1477, "goals": 0.1412, "goal_rate": 0.1412, "shots_on_target": 0.5407, "total_shots": 1.7062, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 71.3, "total_pass": 17.399, "accurate_pass": 13.9171, "duels_won": 4.4578, "total_long_balls": 1.9181, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8828, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0862, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.5449, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3128, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3722, "crosses_total": 1.5052, "crosses_accurate": 0.3858, "touches": 32.5374, "possession_lost": 8.0006, "dispossessed": 0.9288, "duels_lost": 3.4462, "aerial_won": 0.7146, "aerial_lost": 0.5561, "interceptions": 0.5687, "tackles_won": 0.3105, "tackles": 0.8265, "clearances": 0.7183, "total_contest": 1.5714, "won_contest": 0.8362, "challenges_lost": 0.3354, "fouls": 0.8972, "fouls_drawn": 2.0891, "blocks": 0.4278, "big_chances_created": 0.0071, "big_chances_missed": 0.1694, "xgot": 0.141, "ball_carries": 8.8086, "total_progression": 43.0211, "progressive_carries": 1.1044, "shots_off_target": 1.1508 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1242, "expected_assists": 0.1031, "assists": 0.1068, "assist_rate": 0.1068, "expected_goals": 0.1237, "goals": 0.1183, "goal_rate": 0.1183, "shots_on_target": 0.4529, "total_shots": 1.4291, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 71.3, "total_pass": 17.399, "accurate_pass": 13.9171, "duels_won": 4.4578, "total_long_balls": 1.9181, 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12.3128, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3722, "crosses_total": 1.5052, "crosses_accurate": 0.3858, "touches": 32.5374, "possession_lost": 8.0006, "dispossessed": 0.9288, "duels_lost": 3.4462, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5561, "interceptions": 0.5687, "tackles_won": 0.3105, "tackles": 0.8265, "clearances": 0.7183, "total_contest": 1.5714, "won_contest": 0.8362, "challenges_lost": 0.3354, "fouls": 0.8972, "fouls_drawn": 2.0891, "blocks": 0.4278, "big_chances_created": 0.0071, "big_chances_missed": 0.1419, "xgot": 0.1181, "ball_carries": 8.8086, "total_progression": 43.0211, "progressive_carries": 1.1044, "shots_off_target": 0.9639, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8376, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.31, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.038995 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028252 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.022024 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.00831 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.00827 } ], "others_margin": -0.027195 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.7618, "duels_lost": 2.2413, "aerial_won": 0.1727, "aerial_lost": 0.3499, "interceptions": 0.6805, "tackles_won": 0.1176, "tackles": 1.0679, "clearances": 1.2413, "total_contest": 0.4152, "won_contest": 0.3091, "challenges_lost": 0.5315, "fouls": 0.5949, "fouls_drawn": 0.4204, "blocks": 0.3758, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4934, "total_progression": 12.123, "progressive_carries": 0.3453, "shots_off_target": 0.6368 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7893, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "assists": 0.0688, "assist_rate": 0.0688, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "goals": 0.0506, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "shots_on_target": 0.1963, "total_shots": 0.7216, "rating": 6.7795, "minutes": 79.1, "total_pass": 22.7594, "accurate_pass": 19.3873, "duels_won": 1.9679, 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"season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083440, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5608, "combined_rank_score": 3890.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 6959.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7135, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Davinchi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Magnus Knudsen", "ranking": 5603 }, { "player_name": "Eric Kahl", "ranking": 5604 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Huescas", "ranking": 5605 }, { "player_name": "Victor Bak", "ranking": 5606 }, { "player_name": "Federico Mateos", "ranking": 5607 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gustaf Nilsson", "ranking": 5609 }, { "player_name": "Daam Foulon", "ranking": 5610 }, { "player_name": "Idan Toklomati", "ranking": 5611 }, { "player_name": "Fredrik Hammar", "ranking": 5612 }, { "player_name": "George Saville", "ranking": 5613 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.755, "history_matches": 19, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", 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{ "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.8718 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.3323 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3177 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2186 } ], "others": 0.1731, "total": 2.2292, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.293968 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.139579 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133831 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.108845 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.101027 } ], "others_margin": 0.080775 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8296737670898438, "model_output": 0.8297, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5201 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1152 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.123 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1068 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0858 } ], "others": -0.0701, "total": 0.8297, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.475524 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.126538 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119405 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.102875 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.091046 } ], "others_margin": -0.081201 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4810976982116699, "model_output": 0.4811, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.055 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0098, "total": 0.4811, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05499 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034977 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.025186 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.022912 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.011542 } ], "others_margin": -0.009729 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.713536739349365, "model_output": 6.7135, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0339 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.0189, "total": 6.7135, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.042583 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.033859 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015973 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.013932 } ], "others_margin": -0.01883 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9958, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.662, "tackles": 1.6538, "tackles_won": 0.9671, "clearances": 2.2198, "aerial_won": 0.8262, "total_shots": 0.4791, "rating": 6.7135, "minutes": 66.19, "total_pass": 16.0259, "accurate_pass": 7.8462, "duels_won": 3.8096, "total_long_balls": 3.211, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4273, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2388, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.874, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7871, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9722, "crosses_total": 1.4122, "crosses_accurate": 0.0733, "touches": 36.2337, "possession_lost": 13.8439, "dispossessed": 1.0952, "duels_lost": 5.026, "aerial_lost": 0.805, "total_contest": 1.2723, "won_contest": 1.0649, "ball_recovery": 2.6075, "challenges_lost": 0.7003, "fouls": 2.3586, "fouls_drawn": 0.1194, "blocks": 0.2386, "goals": 0.0, 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 935, "combined_rank_score": 436.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 122.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 750.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9946, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "David Soria", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Isco", "ranking": 930 }, { "player_name": "Karim Benzema", "ranking": 931 }, { "player_name": "Julen Agirrezabala", "ranking": 932 }, { "player_name": "Koen Casteels", "ranking": 933 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Pereira", "ranking": 934 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jasurbek Jaloliddinov", "ranking": 936 }, { "player_name": "Kalidou Koulibaly", "ranking": 937 }, { "player_name": "Dragan Ceran", "ranking": 938 }, { "player_name": "Benjamín Berríos", "ranking": 939 }, { "player_name": "Golib Gaybullaev", "ranking": 940 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 48, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", 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substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9981, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9971, "goals_prevented": -0.0378, "rating": 6.9946, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 27.1908, "accurate_pass": 13.0479, "total_long_balls": 24.8692, "accurate_long_balls": 10.851, "touches": 34.3473, "clearances": 1.1651, "ball_recovery": 8.8744, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.8439, "aerial_won": 0.1197, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 1.9987, "possession_lost": 14.2974, "duels_won": 0.3208, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2123, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7721 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9981, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 48, "history_shrink": 0.0943, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0123)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9908, "goals_prevented": -0.0378, "rating": 6.9946, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 27.1908, "accurate_pass": 13.0479, "total_long_balls": 24.8692, "accurate_long_balls": 10.851, "touches": 34.3473, "clearances": 1.1651, "ball_recovery": 8.8744, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.8439, "aerial_won": 0.1197, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 1.9987, "possession_lost": 14.2974, "duels_won": 0.3208, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2173, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7721 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0123, "history_matches": 48, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9328, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9971, "after": 2.9908 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2123, "after": 0.2173 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9908, "goals_prevented": -0.0378, "rating": 6.9946, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 27.1908, "accurate_pass": 13.0479, "total_long_balls": 24.8692, "accurate_long_balls": 10.851, "touches": 34.3473, "clearances": 1.1651, "ball_recovery": 8.8744, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.8439, "aerial_won": 0.1197, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 1.9987, "possession_lost": 14.2974, "duels_won": 0.3208, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2173, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7721 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9908, "goals_prevented": -0.0378, "rating": 6.9946, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 27.1908, "accurate_pass": 13.0479, "total_long_balls": 24.8692, "accurate_long_balls": 10.851, "touches": 34.3473, "clearances": 1.1651, "ball_recovery": 8.8744, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.8439, "aerial_won": 0.1197, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 1.9987, "possession_lost": 14.2974, "duels_won": 0.3208, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2173, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7721, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2934, "shots_faced": 12.3, "expected_saves": 3.01, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "opponent_faced": "Félix Correia, Lucas Stassin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Félix Correia, Lucas Stassin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.2934 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9908, "goals_prevented": -0.0378, "rating": 6.9946, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 27.1908, "accurate_pass": 13.0479, "total_long_balls": 24.8692, "accurate_long_balls": 10.851, "touches": 34.3473, "clearances": 1.1651, "ball_recovery": 8.8744, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.8439, "aerial_won": 0.1197, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 1.9987, "possession_lost": 14.2974, "duels_won": 0.3208, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2173, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7721, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2934, "shots_faced": 12.3, "expected_saves": 3.01, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "opponent_faced": "Félix Correia, Lucas Stassin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9446, xG scale 1.4038, xA scale 1.4866, team xA 0.86 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9908, "goals_prevented": -0.0378, "rating": 6.9946, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 27.1908, "accurate_pass": 13.0479, "total_long_balls": 24.8692, "accurate_long_balls": 10.851, "touches": 34.3473, "clearances": 1.1651, "ball_recovery": 8.8744, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.8439, "aerial_won": 0.1197, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 1.9987, "possession_lost": 14.2974, "duels_won": 0.3208, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2173, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7721, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2934, "shots_faced": 15.8, "expected_saves": 3.87, "high_pressure_saves": 1.33, "opponent_faced": "Félix Correia, Lucas Stassin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9446, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5798, "team_expected_assists": 0.8619, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4038, "xa_scale": 1.4866, "opponent_lambda": 1.658, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 12.3, "after": 15.8 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.01, "after": 3.87 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.03, "after": 1.33 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9908, "goals_prevented": -0.0378, "rating": 6.9946, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 27.1908, "accurate_pass": 13.0479, "total_long_balls": 24.8692, "accurate_long_balls": 10.851, "touches": 34.3473, "clearances": 1.1651, "ball_recovery": 8.8744, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.8439, "aerial_won": 0.1197, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 1.9987, "possession_lost": 14.2974, "duels_won": 0.3208, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2173, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7721, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2934, "shots_faced": 15.8, "expected_saves": 3.87, "high_pressure_saves": 1.33, "opponent_faced": "Félix Correia, Lucas Stassin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 935, "fifa_rank": 750.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9908, "goals_prevented": -0.0378, "rating": 6.9946, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 27.1908, "accurate_pass": 13.0479, "total_long_balls": 24.8692, "accurate_long_balls": 10.851, "touches": 34.3473, "clearances": 1.1651, "ball_recovery": 8.8744, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.8439, "aerial_won": 0.1197, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 1.9987, "possession_lost": 14.2974, "duels_won": 0.3208, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2173, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7721, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2934, "shots_faced": 15.8, "expected_saves": 3.87, "high_pressure_saves": 1.33, "opponent_faced": "Félix Correia, Lucas Stassin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.327, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martín Satriano", "weight": 0.3051, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3051, "runner_up": "Enes Ünal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2876 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9908, "goals_prevented": -0.0378, "rating": 6.9946, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 27.1908, "accurate_pass": 13.0479, "total_long_balls": 24.8692, "accurate_long_balls": 10.851, "touches": 34.3473, "clearances": 1.1651, "ball_recovery": 8.8744, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.8439, "aerial_won": 0.1197, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 1.9987, "possession_lost": 14.2974, "duels_won": 0.3208, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2173, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7721, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2934, "shots_faced": 15.8, "expected_saves": 3.87, "high_pressure_saves": 1.33, "opponent_faced": "Félix Correia, Lucas Stassin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.9122, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dani Carvajal", "weight": 0.1611, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1611, "runner_up": "Ramón Terrats", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.157, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Martín Satriano" ] } ] } } ] }, "Andrés García": { "player_id": 1457536, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 183, "market_value": 7600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7145, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 11.509, "dispossessed": 0.7062, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "expected_assists": 0.0617, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0182, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Isaac Romero", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0446, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0598, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421072, "match_date": "2026-10-19", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1053, "expected_assists": 0.0954, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0469, "expected_assists": 0.0589, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0557, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 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"Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025025, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0907 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0906 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0502 } ], "others": -0.1526, "total": 0.5172, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.496765 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.149699 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118653 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.11849 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.072308 } ], "others_margin": -0.258649 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5507570505142212, "model_output": 0.5508, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0505 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0437 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0078, "total": 0.5508, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050463 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.043745 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.017252 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.011566 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009963 } ], "others_margin": -0.007882 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.714509963989258, "model_output": 6.7145, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0476 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 6.7145, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.047631 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018019 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.015456 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01415 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012931 } ], "others_margin": -0.005437 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 14, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9991, quality 0.494)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7181, "tackles": 1.8597, "tackles_won": 1.1103, "clearances": 1.8066, "aerial_won": 0.5168, "total_shots": 0.5503, "rating": 6.7145, "minutes": 76.42, "total_pass": 21.9975, "accurate_pass": 18.524, "duels_won": 3.3245, "total_long_balls": 3.3315, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5917, "total_own_half_passes": 10.7175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5778, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9461, "crosses_total": 2.9733, "crosses_accurate": 0.5975, "touches": 41.7786, "possession_lost": 11.509, "dispossessed": 0.7062, "duels_lost": 3.205, "aerial_lost": 0.4703, "total_contest": 2.1267, "won_contest": 1.2389, "ball_recovery": 3.3849, "challenges_lost": 0.4902, "fouls": 0.6506, "fouls_drawn": 0.1355, "blocks": 0.0832, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "shots_on_target": 0.1875, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.013, "ball_carries": 11.7338, "total_progression": 38.0503, "progressive_carries": 1.2505, "key_pass": 0.8289, "shots_off_target": 0.3628 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7600000, "quality_factor": 0.4939, "boost_factor": 0.9991, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 14, "history_shrink": 0.2632, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0285)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6976, "tackles": 1.8597, "tackles_won": 1.1367, "clearances": 1.8066, "aerial_won": 0.5168, "total_shots": 0.5632, "rating": 6.7145, "minutes": 76.42, "total_pass": 21.9975, "accurate_pass": 18.524, "duels_won": 3.3245, "total_long_balls": 3.3315, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5917, "total_own_half_passes": 10.7175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5778, 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0.366502046585083, "model_output": 0.3665, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1118 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0527 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0491, "total": 0.3665, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.111788 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052663 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.014171 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.010505 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009103 } ], "others_margin": -0.049016 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.745176315307617, "model_output": 6.7452, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0175, "total": 6.7452, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014788 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010842 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009067 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.00851 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008332 } ], "others_margin": -0.017525 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9961, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9118, "tackles": 1.4335, "tackles_won": 0.937, "clearances": 2.1311, "aerial_won": 0.6224, "total_shots": 0.3651, "rating": 6.7452, "minutes": 77.22, "total_pass": 34.0816, "accurate_pass": 30.7311, "duels_won": 1.9032, "total_long_balls": 3.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1554, "total_own_half_passes": 17.081, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5723, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0005, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1588, "crosses_total": 0.6868, "crosses_accurate": 0.2402, "touches": 46.157, "possession_lost": 5.409, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_lost": 0.2365, "total_contest": 0.2422, "won_contest": 0.1473, "ball_recovery": 3.179, "challenges_lost": 0.9425, "fouls": 0.3468, "fouls_drawn": 0.8849, "blocks": 0.5614, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1258, "assist_rate": 0.1258, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0867, "shots_on_target": 0.0773, "big_chances_created": 0.3445, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 9.0815, "total_progression": 21.4023, "progressive_carries": 0.3817, "key_pass": 0.8004, "shots_off_target": 0.2878 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3400000, "quality_factor": 0.4424, "boost_factor": 0.9961, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9118, "tackles": 1.4335, "tackles_won": 0.937, "clearances": 2.1311, "aerial_won": 0.6224, "total_shots": 0.3651, "rating": 6.7452, "minutes": 77.22, "total_pass": 34.0816, "accurate_pass": 30.7311, "duels_won": 1.9032, "total_long_balls": 3.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1554, "total_own_half_passes": 17.081, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5723, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0005, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1588, "crosses_total": 0.6868, "crosses_accurate": 0.2402, "touches": 46.157, "possession_lost": 5.409, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_lost": 0.2365, "total_contest": 0.2422, "won_contest": 0.1473, "ball_recovery": 3.179, "challenges_lost": 0.9425, "fouls": 0.3468, "fouls_drawn": 0.8849, "blocks": 0.5614, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1258, "assist_rate": 0.1258, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0867, "shots_on_target": 0.0773, "big_chances_created": 0.3445, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 9.0815, "total_progression": 21.4023, "progressive_carries": 0.3817, "key_pass": 0.8004, "shots_off_target": 0.2878 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9118, "tackles": 1.4335, "tackles_won": 0.937, "clearances": 2.1311, "aerial_won": 0.6224, "total_shots": 0.3651, "rating": 6.7452, "minutes": 77.22, "total_pass": 34.0816, "accurate_pass": 30.7311, "duels_won": 1.9032, "total_long_balls": 3.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1554, "total_own_half_passes": 17.081, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5723, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0005, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1588, "crosses_total": 0.6868, "crosses_accurate": 0.2402, "touches": 46.157, "possession_lost": 5.409, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_lost": 0.2365, "total_contest": 0.2422, "won_contest": 0.1473, "ball_recovery": 3.179, "challenges_lost": 0.9425, "fouls": 0.3468, "fouls_drawn": 0.8849, "blocks": 0.5614, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1258, "assist_rate": 0.1258, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0867, "shots_on_target": 0.0773, "big_chances_created": 0.3445, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 9.0815, "total_progression": 21.4023, "progressive_carries": 0.3817, "key_pass": 0.8004, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Suazo", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Suazo", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9118, "tackles": 1.4335, "tackles_won": 0.937, "clearances": 2.1311, "aerial_won": 0.6224, "total_shots": 0.3651, "rating": 6.7452, "minutes": 77.22, "total_pass": 34.0816, "accurate_pass": 30.7311, "duels_won": 1.9032, "total_long_balls": 3.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1554, "total_own_half_passes": 17.081, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5723, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0005, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1588, "crosses_total": 0.6868, "crosses_accurate": 0.2402, "touches": 46.157, "possession_lost": 5.409, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_lost": 0.2365, "total_contest": 0.2422, "won_contest": 0.1473, "ball_recovery": 3.179, "challenges_lost": 0.9425, "fouls": 0.3468, "fouls_drawn": 0.8849, "blocks": 0.5614, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1258, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0867, "shots_on_target": 0.0773, "big_chances_created": 0.3445, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 9.0815, "total_progression": 21.4023, "progressive_carries": 0.3817, "key_pass": 0.8004, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Suazo", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9446, xG scale 1.4038, xA scale 1.4866, team xA 0.86 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9118, "tackles": 1.4335, "tackles_won": 0.937, "clearances": 2.1311, "aerial_won": 0.6224, "total_shots": 0.3651, "rating": 6.7452, "minutes": 77.22, "total_pass": 34.0816, "accurate_pass": 30.7311, "duels_won": 1.9032, "total_long_balls": 3.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1554, "total_own_half_passes": 17.081, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5723, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0005, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1588, "crosses_total": 0.6868, "crosses_accurate": 0.2402, "touches": 46.157, "possession_lost": 5.409, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_lost": 0.2365, "total_contest": 0.2422, "won_contest": 0.1473, "ball_recovery": 3.179, "challenges_lost": 0.9425, "fouls": 0.3468, "fouls_drawn": 0.8849, "blocks": 0.5614, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1258, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0303, "expected_assists": 0.1289, "shots_on_target": 0.0773, "big_chances_created": 0.3445, "xgot": 0.0229, "ball_carries": 9.0815, "total_progression": 21.4023, "progressive_carries": 0.3817, "key_pass": 0.8004, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Suazo", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9446, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5798, "team_expected_assists": 0.8619, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4038, "xa_scale": 1.4866, "opponent_lambda": 1.658, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0216, "after": 0.0303 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0867, "after": 0.1289 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9118, "tackles": 1.4335, "tackles_won": 0.937, "clearances": 2.1311, "aerial_won": 0.6224, "total_shots": 0.3651, "rating": 6.7452, "minutes": 77.22, "total_pass": 34.0816, "accurate_pass": 30.7311, "duels_won": 1.9032, "total_long_balls": 3.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1554, "total_own_half_passes": 17.081, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5723, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0005, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1588, "crosses_total": 0.6868, "crosses_accurate": 0.2402, "touches": 46.157, "possession_lost": 5.409, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_lost": 0.2365, "total_contest": 0.2422, "won_contest": 0.1473, "ball_recovery": 3.179, "challenges_lost": 0.9425, "fouls": 0.3468, "fouls_drawn": 0.8849, "blocks": 0.5614, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1258, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0303, 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"Ramón Terrats", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.157, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Martín Satriano" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nemanja Gudelj": { "player_id": 68332, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 5.8283, "dispossessed": 0.035, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, 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}, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024204 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.023209 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.015436 } ], "others_margin": -0.03743 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5344, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goals": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "shots_on_target": 0.2144, "total_shots": 0.9452, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 21.7245, "accurate_pass": 16.8955, "duels_won": 2.9059, "total_long_balls": 2.8026, "accurate_long_balls": 1.028, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9232, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8177, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9723, "crosses_total": 0.1454, "crosses_accurate": 0.0942, "touches": 32.823, "possession_lost": 5.8283, "dispossessed": 0.035, "duels_lost": 2.9508, "aerial_won": 1.3645, "aerial_lost": 0.5714, "interceptions": 1.2108, "tackles_won": 0.722, "tackles": 1.2645, "clearances": 3.1272, "total_contest": 0.2344, "won_contest": 0.1392, "challenges_lost": 0.7439, "fouls": 1.5214, "fouls_drawn": 0.1377, "blocks": 1.0623, "big_chances_created": 0.1092, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0097, "ball_carries": 4.9395, "total_progression": 9.5197, "progressive_carries": 0.2907, "shots_off_target": 0.7308 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0009)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5344, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "shots_on_target": 0.2142, "total_shots": 0.9493, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 21.7245, "accurate_pass": 16.8955, "duels_won": 2.9059, "total_long_balls": 2.8026, "accurate_long_balls": 1.028, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9232, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8177, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9723, "crosses_total": 0.1453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0942, "touches": 32.823, "possession_lost": 5.8283, "dispossessed": 0.035, "duels_lost": 2.9508, "aerial_won": 1.3645, "aerial_lost": 0.5714, "interceptions": 1.2097, "tackles_won": 0.7213, "tackles": 1.2645, "clearances": 3.1272, "total_contest": 0.2344, "won_contest": 0.1392, "challenges_lost": 0.7439, "fouls": 1.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "blocks": 1.0623, "big_chances_created": 0.1092, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0097, "ball_carries": 4.9395, "total_progression": 9.5197, "progressive_carries": 0.2907, "shots_off_target": 0.7308 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0009, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9022, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5344, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "shots_on_target": 0.2142, "total_shots": 0.9493, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 21.7245, "accurate_pass": 16.8955, "duels_won": 2.9059, "total_long_balls": 2.8026, "accurate_long_balls": 1.028, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9232, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8177, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9723, "crosses_total": 0.1453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0942, "touches": 32.823, "possession_lost": 5.8283, "dispossessed": 0.035, "duels_lost": 2.9508, "aerial_won": 1.3645, "aerial_lost": 0.5714, "interceptions": 1.2097, "tackles_won": 0.7213, "tackles": 1.2645, "clearances": 3.1272, "total_contest": 0.2344, "won_contest": 0.1392, "challenges_lost": 0.7439, "fouls": 1.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "blocks": 1.0623, "big_chances_created": 0.1092, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0097, "ball_carries": 4.9395, "total_progression": 9.5197, "progressive_carries": 0.2907, "shots_off_target": 0.7308 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5344, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "shots_on_target": 0.2142, "total_shots": 0.9493, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 21.7245, "accurate_pass": 16.8955, "duels_won": 2.9059, "total_long_balls": 2.8026, "accurate_long_balls": 1.028, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9232, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8177, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9723, "crosses_total": 0.1453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0942, "touches": 32.823, "possession_lost": 5.8283, "dispossessed": 0.035, "duels_lost": 2.9508, "aerial_won": 1.3645, "aerial_lost": 0.5714, "interceptions": 1.2097, "tackles_won": 0.7213, "tackles": 1.2645, "clearances": 3.1272, "total_contest": 0.2344, "won_contest": 0.1392, "challenges_lost": 0.7439, "fouls": 1.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "blocks": 1.0623, "big_chances_created": 0.1092, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0097, "ball_carries": 4.9395, "total_progression": 9.5197, "progressive_carries": 0.2907, "shots_off_target": 0.7308, "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5344, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2142, "total_shots": 0.9493, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 21.7245, "accurate_pass": 16.8955, "duels_won": 2.9059, "total_long_balls": 2.8026, "accurate_long_balls": 1.028, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9232, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8177, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9723, "crosses_total": 0.1453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0942, "touches": 32.823, "possession_lost": 5.8283, "dispossessed": 0.035, "duels_lost": 2.9508, "aerial_won": 1.3645, "aerial_lost": 0.5714, "interceptions": 1.2097, "tackles_won": 0.7213, "tackles": 1.2645, "clearances": 3.1272, "total_contest": 0.2344, "won_contest": 0.1392, "challenges_lost": 0.7439, "fouls": 1.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "blocks": 1.0623, "big_chances_created": 0.1092, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0097, "ball_carries": 4.9395, "total_progression": 9.5197, "progressive_carries": 0.2907, "shots_off_target": 0.7308, "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9446, xG scale 1.4038, xA scale 1.4866, team xA 0.86 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5344, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2142, "total_shots": 0.9493, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 21.7245, "accurate_pass": 16.8955, "duels_won": 2.9059, "total_long_balls": 2.8026, "accurate_long_balls": 1.028, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9232, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8177, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9723, "crosses_total": 0.1453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0942, "touches": 32.823, "possession_lost": 5.8283, "dispossessed": 0.035, "duels_lost": 2.9508, "aerial_won": 1.3645, "aerial_lost": 0.5714, "interceptions": 1.2097, "tackles_won": 0.7213, "tackles": 1.2645, "clearances": 3.1272, "total_contest": 0.2344, "won_contest": 0.1392, "challenges_lost": 0.7439, "fouls": 1.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "blocks": 1.0623, "big_chances_created": 0.1092, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 4.9395, "total_progression": 9.5197, "progressive_carries": 0.2907, "shots_off_target": 0.7308, "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9317, "creation_factor": 1.199 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9446, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5798, "team_expected_assists": 0.8619, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4038, "xa_scale": 1.4866, "opponent_lambda": 1.658, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0671, "after": 0.0942 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0304, "after": 0.0452 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5344, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2142, "total_shots": 0.9493, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 21.7245, "accurate_pass": 16.8955, "duels_won": 2.9059, "total_long_balls": 2.8026, "accurate_long_balls": 1.028, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9232, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8177, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9723, "crosses_total": 0.1453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0942, "touches": 32.823, "possession_lost": 5.8283, "dispossessed": 0.035, "duels_lost": 2.9508, "aerial_won": 1.3645, "aerial_lost": 0.5714, "interceptions": 1.2097, "tackles_won": 0.7213, "tackles": 1.2645, "clearances": 3.1272, "total_contest": 0.2344, "won_contest": 0.1392, "challenges_lost": 0.7439, "fouls": 1.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "blocks": 1.0623, "big_chances_created": 0.1092, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 4.9395, "total_progression": 9.5197, "progressive_carries": 0.2907, "shots_off_target": 0.7308, "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9317, "creation_factor": 1.199, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1778, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5344, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2142, "total_shots": 0.9493, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 21.7245, "accurate_pass": 16.8955, "duels_won": 2.9059, "total_long_balls": 2.8026, "accurate_long_balls": 1.028, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9232, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8177, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9723, "crosses_total": 0.1453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0942, "touches": 32.823, "possession_lost": 5.8283, "dispossessed": 0.035, "duels_lost": 2.9508, "aerial_won": 1.3645, "aerial_lost": 0.5714, "interceptions": 1.2097, "tackles_won": 0.7213, "tackles": 1.2645, "clearances": 3.1272, "total_contest": 0.2344, "won_contest": 0.1392, "challenges_lost": 0.7439, "fouls": 1.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "blocks": 1.0623, "big_chances_created": 0.1092, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 4.9395, "total_progression": 9.5197, "progressive_carries": 0.2907, "shots_off_target": 0.7308, "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0899, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9317, "creation_factor": 1.199, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0899, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "scorer_weight": 0.0878, "squad_weight_total": 1.327, "weight_share": 0.0661, "finishing_factor": 0.9317, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martín Satriano", "weight": 0.3051, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3051, "runner_up": "Enes Ünal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2876 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5344, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2142, "total_shots": 0.9493, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 81.2, "total_pass": 21.7245, "accurate_pass": 16.8955, "duels_won": 2.9059, "total_long_balls": 2.8026, "accurate_long_balls": 1.028, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9232, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8177, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9723, "crosses_total": 0.1453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0942, "touches": 32.823, "possession_lost": 5.8283, "dispossessed": 0.035, "duels_lost": 2.9508, "aerial_won": 1.3645, "aerial_lost": 0.5714, "interceptions": 1.2097, "tackles_won": 0.7213, "tackles": 1.2645, "clearances": 3.1272, "total_contest": 0.2344, "won_contest": 0.1392, "challenges_lost": 0.7439, "fouls": 1.5241, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "blocks": 1.0623, "big_chances_created": 0.1092, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 4.9395, "total_progression": 9.5197, "progressive_carries": 0.2907, "shots_off_target": 0.7308, "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0899, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0442, "finishing_factor": 0.9317, "creation_factor": 1.199, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0442, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "provider_weight": 0.0542, "squad_weight_total": 0.9122, "weight_share": 0.0594, "creation_factor": 1.199, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, 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"name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1174 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0626, "total": 0.2886, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.11745 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041749 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029299 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.015122 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008812 } ], "others_margin": -0.062506 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.605885982513428, "model_output": 6.6059, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0586 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0525, "total": 6.6059, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.058626 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026665 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.022735 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015568 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.015176 } ], "others_margin": -0.052564 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0731, "tackles": 1.2836, "tackles_won": 0.764, "clearances": 4.3291, "aerial_won": 1.3111, "total_shots": 0.288, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 74.95, "total_pass": 24.7318, "accurate_pass": 20.718, "duels_won": 1.9849, "total_long_balls": 3.9977, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2406, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4801, "crosses_total": 0.3969, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 33.8216, "possession_lost": 5.0848, "dispossessed": 0.1555, "duels_lost": 1.9233, "aerial_lost": 0.6135, "total_contest": 0.1079, "won_contest": 0.0984, "ball_recovery": 4.2268, "challenges_lost": 0.3572, "fouls": 0.9704, "fouls_drawn": 0.3546, "blocks": 0.318, "goals": 0.0, 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"final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0778, "tackles": 1.2836, "tackles_won": 0.7653, "clearances": 4.3291, "aerial_won": 1.3111, "total_shots": 0.288, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 74.95, "total_pass": 24.7318, "accurate_pass": 20.718, "duels_won": 1.9849, "total_long_balls": 3.9977, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2406, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4801, "crosses_total": 0.3955, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 33.8216, "possession_lost": 5.0848, "dispossessed": 0.1555, "duels_lost": 1.9233, "aerial_lost": 0.6135, "total_contest": 0.1079, "won_contest": 0.0984, "ball_recovery": 4.2268, "challenges_lost": 0.3572, "fouls": 0.9765, "fouls_drawn": 0.35, "blocks": 0.318, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0003, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7929, "total_progression": 22.0406, "progressive_carries": 0.0057, "key_pass": 0.0897, "shots_off_target": 0.288 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0778, "tackles": 1.2836, "tackles_won": 0.7653, "clearances": 4.3291, "aerial_won": 1.3111, "total_shots": 0.288, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 74.95, "total_pass": 24.7318, "accurate_pass": 20.718, "duels_won": 1.9849, "total_long_balls": 3.9977, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2406, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4801, "crosses_total": 0.3955, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 33.8216, "possession_lost": 5.0848, "dispossessed": 0.1555, "duels_lost": 1.9233, "aerial_lost": 0.6135, "total_contest": 0.1079, "won_contest": 0.0984, "ball_recovery": 4.2268, "challenges_lost": 0.3572, "fouls": 0.9765, "fouls_drawn": 0.35, "blocks": 0.318, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0003, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7929, "total_progression": 22.0406, "progressive_carries": 0.0057, "key_pass": 0.0897, "shots_off_target": 0.288, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.717, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Stassin", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucas Stassin", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0778, "tackles": 1.2836, "tackles_won": 0.7653, "clearances": 4.3291, "aerial_won": 1.3111, "total_shots": 0.288, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 74.95, "total_pass": 24.7318, "accurate_pass": 20.718, "duels_won": 1.9849, "total_long_balls": 3.9977, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2406, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4801, "crosses_total": 0.3955, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 33.8216, "possession_lost": 5.0848, "dispossessed": 0.1555, "duels_lost": 1.9233, "aerial_lost": 0.6135, "total_contest": 0.1079, "won_contest": 0.0984, "ball_recovery": 4.2268, "challenges_lost": 0.3572, "fouls": 0.9765, "fouls_drawn": 0.35, "blocks": 0.318, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0003, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7929, "total_progression": 22.0406, "progressive_carries": 0.0057, "key_pass": 0.0897, "shots_off_target": 0.288, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.717, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Stassin", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9446, xG scale 1.4038, xA scale 1.4866, team xA 0.86 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0778, "tackles": 1.2836, "tackles_won": 0.7653, "clearances": 4.3291, "aerial_won": 1.3111, "total_shots": 0.288, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 74.95, "total_pass": 24.7318, "accurate_pass": 20.718, "duels_won": 1.9849, "total_long_balls": 3.9977, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2406, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4801, "crosses_total": 0.3955, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 33.8216, "possession_lost": 5.0848, "dispossessed": 0.1555, "duels_lost": 1.9233, "aerial_lost": 0.6135, "total_contest": 0.1079, "won_contest": 0.0984, "ball_recovery": 4.2268, "challenges_lost": 0.3572, "fouls": 0.9765, "fouls_drawn": 0.35, "blocks": 0.318, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0004, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7929, "total_progression": 22.0406, "progressive_carries": 0.0057, "key_pass": 0.0897, "shots_off_target": 0.288, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.717, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Stassin", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.994, "creation_factor": 0.8403 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9446, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5798, "team_expected_assists": 0.8619, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4038, "xa_scale": 1.4866, "opponent_lambda": 1.658, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0778, "tackles": 1.2836, "tackles_won": 0.7653, "clearances": 4.3291, "aerial_won": 1.3111, "total_shots": 0.288, "rating": 6.6059, "minutes": 74.95, "total_pass": 24.7318, "accurate_pass": 20.718, "duels_won": 1.9849, "total_long_balls": 3.9977, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2406, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4801, "crosses_total": 0.3955, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 33.8216, "possession_lost": 5.0848, "dispossessed": 0.1555, "duels_lost": 1.9233, "aerial_lost": 0.6135, "total_contest": 0.1079, "won_contest": 0.0984, "ball_recovery": 4.2268, "challenges_lost": 0.3572, "fouls": 0.9765, "fouls_drawn": 0.35, "blocks": 0.318, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0004, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083618, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1559, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2838, "combined_rank_score": 960.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", 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} ], "others_margin": -0.00961 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.5916215181350708, "model_output": 1.5916, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0742 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2432 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1354 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0709 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0608 } ], "others": -0.1254, "total": 1.5916, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.931393 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.165775 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 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"margin": -0.690612 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.057607 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.053091 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.038382 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.034573 } ], "others_margin": -0.141044 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20536470413208008, "model_output": 0.2054, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2376 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0699 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": 0.0281, "total": 0.2054, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.237613 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.069925 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.019716 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.012295 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.012065 } ], "others_margin": 0.028179 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.754524230957031, "model_output": 6.7545, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0075, "total": 6.7545, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012779 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011322 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011202 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010948 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.010753 } ], "others_margin": -0.007589 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.460)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5388, "tackles": 0.6621, "tackles_won": 0.3701, "clearances": 1.5876, "aerial_won": 0.7171, "total_shots": 0.2049, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 31.2784, "accurate_pass": 24.9446, "duels_won": 4.9166, "total_long_balls": 6.2788, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1209, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4165, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5281, "crosses_total": 0.3339, "crosses_accurate": 0.0303, "touches": 47.3119, "possession_lost": 8.8836, "dispossessed": 0.4439, "duels_lost": 2.9645, "aerial_lost": 1.0234, "total_contest": 1.7641, "won_contest": 1.1948, "ball_recovery": 5.7456, "challenges_lost": 0.2933, "fouls": 0.7487, "fouls_drawn": 0.7962, "blocks": 0.406, "goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.037, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "shots_on_target": 0.085, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0102, "ball_carries": 11.7502, "total_progression": 47.1554, "progressive_carries": 1.0437, "key_pass": 0.1494, "shots_off_target": 0.1199 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4800000, "quality_factor": 0.4597, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0241)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5322, "tackles": 0.6621, "tackles_won": 0.366, "clearances": 1.5876, "aerial_won": 0.7171, "total_shots": 0.2, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 31.2784, "accurate_pass": 24.9446, "duels_won": 4.9166, "total_long_balls": 6.2788, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1209, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4165, 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true, "weight": 0.0573, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0487, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0414, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0352, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.6338, "aerialWon": 0.5501, "totalClearance_p90": 14.388, "totalTackle": 0.8017, "totalPass": 13.903 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.2728981375694275, "model_output": 0.2729, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2977 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0318 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0281 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8678, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4574 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0476 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0398, "total": 0.2729, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.141777, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.748804 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.12314 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.079898 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.042736 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.025801 } ], "others_margin": -0.136501 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5025559067726135, "model_output": 0.5026, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2493 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0731 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0414 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0245 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3878, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7562 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": -0.0292, "total": 0.5026, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327722, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.787265 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.05231 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.050405 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.037636 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.031389 } ], "others_margin": -0.056766 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.33045586943626404, "model_output": 0.3305, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1966 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0678 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8471, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4597 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0172, "total": 0.3305, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.165887, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.78239 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.051559 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.050547 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.047656 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.041586 } ], "others_margin": -0.050829 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.5991721153259277, "model_output": 1.5992, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0925 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1096 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0946 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0784 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0576 } ], "others": 0.148, "total": 1.5992, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.945095 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.085979 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.074678 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.05792 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.040524 } ], "others_margin": 0.097 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4255271255970001, "model_output": 0.4255, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8056 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1524 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0447 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0089, "total": 0.4255, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.88229 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.311941 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.102019 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.032185 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.02735 } ], "others_margin": -0.020659 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16583462059497833, "model_output": 0.1658, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1788 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.088 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0007, "total": 0.1658, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.178847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.087961 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.017638 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015985 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013195 } ], "others_margin": -0.00062 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.639068126678467, "model_output": 6.6391, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0548 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0257, "total": 6.6391, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.054761 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.024805 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023242 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016072 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.013497 } ], "others_margin": -0.025777 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9970, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2721, "tackles": 0.501, "tackles_won": 0.3295, "clearances": 1.5944, "aerial_won": 0.4243, "total_shots": 0.1653, "rating": 6.6391, "minutes": 29.0, "total_pass": 6.2441, "accurate_pass": 4.2258, "duels_won": 1.0964, "total_long_balls": 1.4432, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6482, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1575, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.856, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0866, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3697, "crosses_total": 0.2962, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2587, "possession_lost": 2.634, "dispossessed": 0.1946, "duels_lost": 1.0543, "aerial_lost": 0.175, "total_contest": 0.1248, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8512, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5599, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "blocks": 0.4617, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0134, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0107, "total_progression": 5.0154, "progressive_carries": 0.1352, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1653 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3300000, "quality_factor": 0.4412, "boost_factor": 0.997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0068)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2724, "tackles": 0.501, "tackles_won": 0.3295, "clearances": 1.5944, "aerial_won": 0.4243, "total_shots": 0.1642, "rating": 6.6391, "minutes": 29.0, "total_pass": 6.2441, "accurate_pass": 4.2258, "duels_won": 1.0964, "total_long_balls": 1.4432, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6482, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1575, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.856, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0866, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3697, "crosses_total": 0.2942, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2587, "possession_lost": 2.634, "dispossessed": 0.1946, "duels_lost": 1.0543, "aerial_lost": 0.175, "total_contest": 0.1248, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8512, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5583, "fouls_drawn": 0.6677, "blocks": 0.4617, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0134, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0107, "total_progression": 5.0154, "progressive_carries": 0.1352, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1653 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0068, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3222, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.0 to 6.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.41)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.0626, "tackles": 0.1151, "tackles_won": 0.0757, "clearances": 0.3662, "aerial_won": 0.0974, "total_shots": 0.038, "rating": 6.6391, "minutes": 6.66, "total_pass": 1.434, "accurate_pass": 0.9705, "duels_won": 0.2518, "total_long_balls": 0.3314, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1489, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7251, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6559, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7089, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.3146, "crosses_total": 0.0676, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 2.8153, "possession_lost": 0.6049, "dispossessed": 0.1946, "duels_lost": 0.2421, "aerial_lost": 0.175, "total_contest": 0.0287, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1955, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1282, "fouls_drawn": 0.1533, "blocks": 0.106, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.4618, "total_progression": 1.1518, "progressive_carries": 0.031, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.038, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.41, "bench_expected_minutes": 6.66 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 6.66, "projection_minutes": 29.0, "minutes_scale": 0.2297, "appearance_probability": 0.41 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.0626, "tackles": 0.1151, "tackles_won": 0.0757, "clearances": 0.3662, "aerial_won": 0.0974, "total_shots": 0.038, "rating": 6.6391, "minutes": 6.66, "total_pass": 1.434, "accurate_pass": 0.9705, "duels_won": 0.2518, "total_long_balls": 0.3314, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1489, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7251, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6559, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7089, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.3146, "crosses_total": 0.0676, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 2.8153, "possession_lost": 0.6049, "dispossessed": 0.1946, "duels_lost": 0.2421, "aerial_lost": 0.175, "total_contest": 0.0287, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1955, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1282, "fouls_drawn": 0.1533, "blocks": 0.106, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.4618, "total_progression": 1.1518, "progressive_carries": 0.031, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.038, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.41, "bench_expected_minutes": 6.66 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.0626, "tackles": 0.1151, "tackles_won": 0.0757, "clearances": 0.3662, "aerial_won": 0.0974, "total_shots": 0.038, "rating": 6.6391, "minutes": 6.66, "total_pass": 1.434, "accurate_pass": 0.9705, "duels_won": 0.2518, "total_long_balls": 0.3314, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1489, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7251, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6559, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7089, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.3146, "crosses_total": 0.0676, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 2.8153, "possession_lost": 0.6049, "dispossessed": 0.1946, "duels_lost": 0.2421, "aerial_lost": 0.175, "total_contest": 0.0287, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1955, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1282, "fouls_drawn": 0.1533, "blocks": 0.106, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.4618, "total_progression": 1.1518, "progressive_carries": 0.031, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.038, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.41, "bench_expected_minutes": 6.66, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, 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"importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3923 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0399 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": -0.008, "total": 0.5357, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.392302 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.048367 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039923 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.029113 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.013489 } ], "others_margin": -0.008038 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.609538555145264, "model_output": 6.6095, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.067 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0458 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0155 } ], "others": -0.0531, "total": 6.6095, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066971 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.045804 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.036921 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.0282 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015484 } ], "others_margin": -0.053091 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.2926, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.314, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.34, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.314, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"others_margin": 0.038013 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.631938934326172, "model_output": 6.6319, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1005 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0248, "total": 6.6319, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.100461 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.041704 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033362 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013745 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010041 } ], "others_margin": -0.024757 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.502)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3974, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "assists": 0.0602, "assist_rate": 0.0602, "expected_goals": 0.0868, "goals": 0.0776, "goal_rate": 0.0776, "shots_on_target": 0.2064, "total_shots": 0.79, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 23.0066, "accurate_pass": 18.3581, "duels_won": 5.6331, "total_long_balls": 2.509, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6022, "total_own_half_passes": 7.5517, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7656, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5924, "crosses_total": 0.8459, "crosses_accurate": 0.0329, "touches": 39.6738, "possession_lost": 10.5796, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 6.1792, "aerial_won": 1.5769, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.4532, "tackles_won": 0.8053, "tackles": 1.4056, "clearances": 0.7308, "total_contest": 2.2927, "won_contest": 0.9029, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.6863, "fouls_drawn": 1.7476, "blocks": 0.1375, "big_chances_created": 0.0029, "big_chances_missed": 0.2521, "xgot": 0.1461, "ball_carries": 9.6817, "total_progression": 17.652, "progressive_carries": 0.7684, "shots_off_target": 0.5836 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8300000, "quality_factor": 0.5023, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "assists": 0.0704, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "expected_goals": 0.1016, "goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.23, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.17, "appearance_probability": 0.51 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "assists": 0.0704, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "expected_goals": 0.1016, "goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1016, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9446, xG scale 1.4038, xA scale 1.4866, team xA 0.86 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1224, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9288, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9446, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5798, "team_expected_assists": 0.8619, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4038, "xa_scale": 1.4866, "opponent_lambda": 1.658, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.51 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1016, "after": 0.0727 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0333, "after": 0.0252 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1224, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9288, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1882, "fifa_rank": 788.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1224, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0678, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9288, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "scorer_weight": 0.0675, "squad_weight_total": 1.327, "weight_share": 0.0509, "finishing_factor": 0.9288, "appearance_weight": 0.51, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martín Satriano", "weight": 0.3051, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3051, "runner_up": "Enes Ünal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2876 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1224, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, 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-0.084926 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.07505 } ], "others_margin": -0.218072 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.599115371704102, "model_output": 6.5991, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0561 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0624, "total": 6.5991, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056095 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021942 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014169 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.010101 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009664 } ], "others_margin": -0.062417 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0037, quality 0.559)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0908, "goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "shots_on_target": 0.2548, "total_shots": 0.6307, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.2441, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 15.25, "total_pass": 4.3426, "accurate_pass": 2.6859, "duels_won": 1.4354, "total_long_balls": 0.156, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0388, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.005, "crosses_total": 0.338, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5566, "possession_lost": 3.7355, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 2.8542, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.4699, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.665, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.3772, "fouls_drawn": 0.6028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0538, "tackles": 0.0538, "clearances": 0.3766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0467, "xgot": 0.0128, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 2.0687, "total_progression": 2.009, "progressive_carries": 0.1271, "shots_off_target": 0.3759 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13200000, "quality_factor": 0.5593, "boost_factor": 1.0037, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.2 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.77, "projection_minutes": 15.25, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.581 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9446, xG scale 1.4038, xA scale 1.4866, team xA 0.86 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0157, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9446, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5798, "team_expected_assists": 0.8619, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4038, "xa_scale": 1.4866, "opponent_lambda": 1.658, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.581 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1362, "after": 0.1111 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0157, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3346, "fifa_rank": 2393.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, 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"eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martín Satriano", "weight": 0.3051, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3051, "runner_up": "Enes Ünal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2876 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, 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6.639159202575684, "model_output": 6.6392, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0573 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0643, "total": 6.6392, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057334 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01562 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.010019 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009395 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.008933 } ], "others_margin": -0.064284 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0844, "goals": 0.1112, "goal_rate": 0.1112, "shots_on_target": 0.3263, "total_shots": 0.9628, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "key_pass": 0.3311, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 12.5156, "accurate_pass": 8.029, "duels_won": 3.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1044, "crosses_total": 0.406, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.8441, "possession_lost": 9.7613, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 5.859, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.7357, "won_contest": 0.1738, "ball_recovery": 2.0282, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.2273, "fouls_drawn": 0.6941, "assists": 0.1255, "assist_rate": 0.1255, "interceptions": 0.1255, "tackles_won": 0.1477, "tackles": 0.2732, "clearances": 0.4776, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2082, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 4.5469, "total_progression": 26.2736, "progressive_carries": 1.8674, "shots_off_target": 0.6365 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7700000, "quality_factor": 0.4951, "boost_factor": 0.9986, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1134, "goals": 0.1494, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assists": 0.1686, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2797, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.52, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.3432, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1134, "goals": 0.1494, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assists": 0.1686, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2797, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1134, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2797, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9446, xG scale 1.4038, xA scale 1.4866, team xA 0.86 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.035, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2234, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2203, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9446, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5798, "team_expected_assists": 0.8619, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4038, "xa_scale": 1.4866, "opponent_lambda": 1.658, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1134, "after": 0.0906 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0414, "after": 0.035 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.035, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2234, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2203, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4905, "fifa_rank": 5809.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.035, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2234, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0838, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2203, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0838, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "scorer_weight": 0.1106, "squad_weight_total": 1.327, "weight_share": 0.0833, "finishing_factor": 1.2203, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martín Satriano", "weight": 0.3051, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3051, "runner_up": "Enes Ünal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2876 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.035, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2234, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0838, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0339, "finishing_factor": 1.2203, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0339, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "provider_weight": 0.0438, "squad_weight_total": 0.9122, "weight_share": 0.048, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dani Carvajal", "weight": 0.1611, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1611, "runner_up": "Ramón Terrats", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.157, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Martín Satriano" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Christantus Uche": { "player_id": 1884145, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 190, "market_value": 13200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0157, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1011, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0184, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023981, "match_date": "2026-03-05", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0992, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025209, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": 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"0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0561 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0624, "total": 6.5991, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056095 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021942 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014169 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.010101 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0037, quality 0.559)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0908, "goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "shots_on_target": 0.2548, "total_shots": 0.6307, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.2441, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 15.25, "total_pass": 4.3426, "accurate_pass": 2.6859, "duels_won": 1.4354, "total_long_balls": 0.156, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0388, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.005, "crosses_total": 0.338, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5566, "possession_lost": 3.7355, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 2.8542, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.4699, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.665, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.3772, "fouls_drawn": 0.6028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0538, "tackles": 0.0538, "clearances": 0.3766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0467, "xgot": 0.0128, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 2.0687, "total_progression": 2.009, "progressive_carries": 0.1271, "shots_off_target": 0.3759 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13200000, "quality_factor": 0.5593, "boost_factor": 1.0037, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.2 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.77, "projection_minutes": 15.25, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.581 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9446, xG scale 1.4038, xA scale 1.4866, team xA 0.86 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0157, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9446, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5798, "team_expected_assists": 0.8619, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4038, "xa_scale": 1.4866, "opponent_lambda": 1.658, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.581 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1362, "after": 0.1111 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0157, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3346, "fifa_rank": 2393.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0157, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1011, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1011, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "scorer_weight": 0.1046, "squad_weight_total": 1.327, "weight_share": 0.0788, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "appearance_weight": 0.581, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martín Satriano", "weight": 0.3051, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3051, "runner_up": "Enes Ünal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2876 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goal_rate": 0.1253, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3822, "total_shots": 0.9461, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.3662, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0157, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1011, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0184, "finishing_factor": 0.9415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0184, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.015, "squad_weight_total": 0.9122, "weight_share": 0.0164, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.581, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dani Carvajal", "weight": 0.1611, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1611, "runner_up": "Ramón Terrats", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.157, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Martín Satriano" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ivan Azón": { "player_id": 1000696, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 181, "market_value": 7700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.035, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2234, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0838, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0339, "finishing_factor": 1.2203, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421081, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 48, "rating": 6.2, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0666, "expected_assists": 0.0004, 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"name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.008933 } ], "others_margin": -0.064284 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0844, "goals": 0.1112, "goal_rate": 0.1112, "shots_on_target": 0.3263, "total_shots": 0.9628, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "key_pass": 0.3311, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 12.5156, "accurate_pass": 8.029, "duels_won": 3.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1044, "crosses_total": 0.406, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.8441, "possession_lost": 9.7613, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 5.859, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.7357, "won_contest": 0.1738, "ball_recovery": 2.0282, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.2273, "fouls_drawn": 0.6941, "assists": 0.1255, "assist_rate": 0.1255, "interceptions": 0.1255, "tackles_won": 0.1477, "tackles": 0.2732, "clearances": 0.4776, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2082, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 4.5469, "total_progression": 26.2736, "progressive_carries": 1.8674, "shots_off_target": 0.6365 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7700000, "quality_factor": 0.4951, "boost_factor": 0.9986, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1134, "goals": 0.1494, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assists": 0.1686, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2797, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.52, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.3432, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1134, "goals": 0.1494, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assists": 0.1686, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2797, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1134, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2797, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9446, xG scale 1.4038, xA scale 1.4866, team xA 0.86 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.035, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2234, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2203, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9446, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5798, "team_expected_assists": 0.8619, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4038, "xa_scale": 1.4866, "opponent_lambda": 1.658, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1134, "after": 0.0906 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0414, "after": 0.035 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.035, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2234, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2203, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4905, "fifa_rank": 5809.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.035, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2234, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0838, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2203, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0838, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "scorer_weight": 0.1106, "squad_weight_total": 1.327, "weight_share": 0.0833, "finishing_factor": 1.2203, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martín Satriano", "weight": 0.3051, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3051, "runner_up": "Enes Ünal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2876 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.1494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4383, "total_shots": 1.2932, "expected_assists": 0.035, "key_pass": 0.4447, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2234, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.8549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0838, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0339, "finishing_factor": 1.2203, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0339, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "provider_weight": 0.0438, "squad_weight_total": 0.9122, "weight_share": 0.048, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dani Carvajal", "weight": 0.1611, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1611, "runner_up": "Ramón Terrats", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.157, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Martín Satriano" ] } ] } } ] }, "Mauro Arambarri": { "player_id": 385888, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 175, "market_value": 8300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1224, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0678, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0246, "finishing_factor": 0.9288, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083723, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0581, "expected_assists": 0.097, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083671, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083592, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1479, "expected_assists": 0.0454, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083440, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Rayo 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6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1005 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0248, "total": 6.6319, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.100461 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.041704 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033362 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013745 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010041 } ], "others_margin": -0.024757 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.502)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3974, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "assists": 0.0602, "assist_rate": 0.0602, "expected_goals": 0.0868, "goals": 0.0776, "goal_rate": 0.0776, "shots_on_target": 0.2064, "total_shots": 0.79, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 23.0066, "accurate_pass": 18.3581, "duels_won": 5.6331, "total_long_balls": 2.509, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6022, "total_own_half_passes": 7.5517, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7656, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5924, "crosses_total": 0.8459, "crosses_accurate": 0.0329, "touches": 39.6738, "possession_lost": 10.5796, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 6.1792, "aerial_won": 1.5769, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.4532, "tackles_won": 0.8053, "tackles": 1.4056, "clearances": 0.7308, "total_contest": 2.2927, "won_contest": 0.9029, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.6863, "fouls_drawn": 1.7476, "blocks": 0.1375, "big_chances_created": 0.0029, "big_chances_missed": 0.2521, "xgot": 0.1461, "ball_carries": 9.6817, "total_progression": 17.652, "progressive_carries": 0.7684, "shots_off_target": 0.5836 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8300000, "quality_factor": 0.5023, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "assists": 0.0704, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "expected_goals": 0.1016, "goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.23, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.17, "appearance_probability": 0.51 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "assists": 0.0704, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "expected_goals": 0.1016, "goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1016, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9446, xG scale 1.4038, xA scale 1.4866, team xA 0.86 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1224, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9288, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9446, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5798, "team_expected_assists": 0.8619, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4038, "xa_scale": 1.4866, "opponent_lambda": 1.658, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.51 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1016, "after": 0.0727 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0333, "after": 0.0252 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1224, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9288, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1882, "fifa_rank": 788.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1224, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0678, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9288, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "scorer_weight": 0.0675, "squad_weight_total": 1.327, "weight_share": 0.0509, "finishing_factor": 0.9288, "appearance_weight": 0.51, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Martín Satriano", "weight": 0.3051, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3051, "runner_up": "Enes Ünal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2876 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4649, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2415, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 6.6319, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1224, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.384, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0678, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0246, "finishing_factor": 0.9288, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0246, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "provider_weight": 0.0315, "squad_weight_total": 0.9122, "weight_share": 0.0345, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.51, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dani Carvajal", "weight": 0.1611, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1611, "runner_up": "Ramón Terrats", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.157, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Martín Satriano" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.33, "expected_assists": 0.86, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 295, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.76, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } }, "Sevilla": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "player_id": 138149, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0129, "rating": 6.8633, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 12, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 32, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9811, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": 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"season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421075, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.1843 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421063, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.989751, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.030586 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.024016 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019407 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.01846 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.017133 } ], "others_margin": -0.051112 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9715, "goals_prevented": -0.0129, "rating": 6.8633, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0508, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9764, "goals_prevented": -0.0129, "rating": 6.8633, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0135, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9764, "goals_prevented": -0.0129, "rating": 6.8633, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9764, "goals_prevented": -0.0129, "rating": 6.8633, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9811, "shots_faced": 9.3, "expected_saves": 2.27, "high_pressure_saves": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.9811 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9764, "goals_prevented": -0.0129, "rating": 6.8633, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9811, "shots_faced": 9.3, "expected_saves": 2.27, "high_pressure_saves": 0.78, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.3489, xG scale 1.2292, xA scale 1.2838, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9764, "goals_prevented": -0.0129, "rating": 6.8633, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9811, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.658, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3489, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8394, "team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 9.3, "after": 12.6 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.27, "after": 3.08 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.78, "after": 1.06 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9764, "goals_prevented": -0.0129, "rating": 6.8633, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9811, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1276, "fifa_rank": 951.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9764, "goals_prevented": -0.0129, "rating": 6.8633, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9811, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.6973, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Stassin", "weight": 0.3099, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3099, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3037 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3037, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3037, "runner_up": "Isaac Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2781 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9764, "goals_prevented": -0.0129, "rating": 6.8633, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9811, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.029, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.1798, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1798, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1711 } ] } } ] }, "Juan Iglesias": { "player_id": 949707, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 185, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8013, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0717, "expected_assists": 0.1175, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0423, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0692, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1109, "finishing_factor": 1.0979, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421085, "match_date": "2026-10-26", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1451, "expected_assists": 0.1069, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421075, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.2075, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421063, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0477, "expected_assists": 0.1232, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 9, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1669, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416343, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 2, 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"season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416323, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.026, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, 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0.842, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1641 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0571 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0225 } ], "others": 0.0625, "total": 0.842, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.164064 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057098 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030266 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.025364 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.022543 } ], "others_margin": 0.062634 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.801326274871826, "model_output": 6.8013, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0226, "total": 6.8013, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019312 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.017996 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.014221 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013132 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.011687 } ], "others_margin": -0.022607 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 47, "role_matches": 46, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9632, "tackles": 2.7427, "tackles_won": 1.4915, "clearances": 3.2501, "aerial_won": 1.0353, "total_shots": 0.8412, "rating": 6.8013, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goals": 0.0689, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "assists": 0.0049, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.0344, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5509 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 47, "history_shrink": 0.0962, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9632, "tackles": 2.7427, "tackles_won": 1.4915, "clearances": 3.2501, "aerial_won": 1.0353, "total_shots": 0.8412, "rating": 6.8013, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goals": 0.0689, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "assists": 0.0049, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.0344, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5509 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9632, "tackles": 2.7427, "tackles_won": 1.4915, "clearances": 3.2501, "aerial_won": 1.0353, "total_shots": 0.8412, "rating": 6.8013, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goals": 0.0689, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "assists": 0.0049, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.0344, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5509, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9632, "tackles": 2.7427, "tackles_won": 1.4915, "clearances": 3.2501, "aerial_won": 1.0353, "total_shots": 0.8412, "rating": 6.8013, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.0344, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5509, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.3489, xG scale 1.2292, xA scale 1.2838, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9632, "tackles": 2.7427, "tackles_won": 1.4915, "clearances": 3.2501, "aerial_won": 1.0353, "total_shots": 0.8412, "rating": 6.8013, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0717, "expected_assists": 0.1175, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.0423, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5509, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0979, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.658, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3489, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8394, "team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0583, "after": 0.0717 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0915, "after": 0.1175 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9632, "tackles": 2.7427, "tackles_won": 1.4915, "clearances": 3.2501, "aerial_won": 1.0353, "total_shots": 0.8412, "rating": 6.8013, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0717, "expected_assists": 0.1175, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.0423, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5509, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0979, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3199, "fifa_rank": 1977.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9632, "tackles": 2.7427, "tackles_won": 1.4915, "clearances": 3.2501, "aerial_won": 1.0353, "total_shots": 0.8412, "rating": 6.8013, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0717, "expected_assists": 0.1175, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.0423, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5509, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0692, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0979, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0692, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "scorer_weight": 0.0787, "squad_weight_total": 1.6973, "weight_share": 0.0464, "finishing_factor": 1.0979, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Stassin", "weight": 0.3099, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3099, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3037 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3037, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3037, "runner_up": "Isaac Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2781 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9632, "tackles": 2.7427, "tackles_won": 1.4915, "clearances": 3.2501, "aerial_won": 1.0353, "total_shots": 0.8412, "rating": 6.8013, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0717, "expected_assists": 0.1175, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.0423, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5509, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0692, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1109, "finishing_factor": 1.0979, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1109, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "provider_weight": 0.094, "squad_weight_total": 1.029, "weight_share": 0.0913, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.1798, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1798, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1711 } ] } } ] }, "Andrés Castrin": { "player_id": 1428699, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 188, "market_value": 8700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7785, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 56, "possession_lost": 6.4905, "dispossessed": 0.0257, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, 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"name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0615 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0351, "total": 0.5118, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061499 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.015605 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013002 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.009954 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.007265 } ], "others_margin": -0.035114 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.778512477874756, "model_output": 6.7785, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": 0.0097, "total": 6.7785, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011135 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009433 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008853 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.00752 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.0065 } ], "others_margin": 0.009694 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0001, quality 0.507)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9324, "tackles": 1.212, "tackles_won": 0.7881, "clearances": 4.6926, "aerial_won": 1.3795, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7785, "minutes": 89.57, "total_pass": 44.1751, "accurate_pass": 38.3579, "duels_won": 3.2381, "total_long_balls": 5.8855, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6353, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7155, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9499, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6426, "crosses_total": 0.0188, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.9065, "possession_lost": 6.4905, "dispossessed": 0.0257, "duels_lost": 2.0348, "aerial_lost": 1.0945, "total_contest": 0.3036, "won_contest": 0.2803, "ball_recovery": 4.2825, "challenges_lost": 0.2096, "fouls": 0.7176, "fouls_drawn": 0.4554, "blocks": 0.723, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "shots_on_target": 0.1541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "ball_carries": 13.4628, "total_progression": 61.0913, "progressive_carries": 0.9317, "key_pass": 0.1926, "shots_off_target": 0.3577 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8700000, "quality_factor": 0.5071, "boost_factor": 1.0001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9324, "tackles": 1.212, "tackles_won": 0.7881, "clearances": 4.6926, "aerial_won": 1.3795, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7785, "minutes": 89.57, "total_pass": 44.1751, "accurate_pass": 38.3579, "duels_won": 3.2381, "total_long_balls": 5.8855, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6353, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7155, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9499, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6426, "crosses_total": 0.0188, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.9065, "possession_lost": 6.4905, "dispossessed": 0.0257, "duels_lost": 2.0348, "aerial_lost": 1.0945, "total_contest": 0.3036, "won_contest": 0.2803, "ball_recovery": 4.2825, "challenges_lost": 0.2096, "fouls": 0.7176, "fouls_drawn": 0.4554, "blocks": 0.723, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "shots_on_target": 0.1541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "ball_carries": 13.4628, "total_progression": 61.0913, "progressive_carries": 0.9317, "key_pass": 0.1926, "shots_off_target": 0.3577 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9324, "tackles": 1.212, "tackles_won": 0.7881, "clearances": 4.6926, "aerial_won": 1.3795, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7785, "minutes": 89.57, "total_pass": 44.1751, "accurate_pass": 38.3579, "duels_won": 3.2381, "total_long_balls": 5.8855, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6353, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7155, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9499, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6426, "crosses_total": 0.0188, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.9065, "possession_lost": 6.4905, "dispossessed": 0.0257, "duels_lost": 2.0348, "aerial_lost": 1.0945, "total_contest": 0.3036, "won_contest": 0.2803, "ball_recovery": 4.2825, "challenges_lost": 0.2096, "fouls": 0.7176, "fouls_drawn": 0.4554, "blocks": 0.723, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "shots_on_target": 0.1541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "ball_carries": 13.4628, "total_progression": 61.0913, "progressive_carries": 0.9317, "key_pass": 0.1926, "shots_off_target": 0.3577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9324, "tackles": 1.212, "tackles_won": 0.7881, "clearances": 4.6926, "aerial_won": 1.3795, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7785, "minutes": 89.57, "total_pass": 44.1751, "accurate_pass": 38.3579, "duels_won": 3.2381, "total_long_balls": 5.8855, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6353, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7155, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9499, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6426, "crosses_total": 0.0188, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.9065, "possession_lost": 6.4905, "dispossessed": 0.0257, "duels_lost": 2.0348, "aerial_lost": 1.0945, "total_contest": 0.3036, "won_contest": 0.2803, "ball_recovery": 4.2825, "challenges_lost": 0.2096, "fouls": 0.7176, "fouls_drawn": 0.4554, "blocks": 0.723, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "shots_on_target": 0.1541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "ball_carries": 13.4628, "total_progression": 61.0913, "progressive_carries": 0.9317, "key_pass": 0.1926, "shots_off_target": 0.3577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.3489, xG scale 1.2292, xA scale 1.2838, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9324, "tackles": 1.212, "tackles_won": 0.7881, "clearances": 4.6926, "aerial_won": 1.3795, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7785, "minutes": 89.57, "total_pass": 44.1751, "accurate_pass": 38.3579, "duels_won": 3.2381, "total_long_balls": 5.8855, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6353, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7155, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9499, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6426, "crosses_total": 0.0188, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.9065, "possession_lost": 6.4905, "dispossessed": 0.0257, "duels_lost": 2.0348, "aerial_lost": 1.0945, "total_contest": 0.3036, "won_contest": 0.2803, "ball_recovery": 4.2825, "challenges_lost": 0.2096, "fouls": 0.7176, "fouls_drawn": 0.4554, "blocks": 0.723, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "shots_on_target": 0.1541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 13.4628, "total_progression": 61.0913, "progressive_carries": 0.9317, "key_pass": 0.1926, "shots_off_target": 0.3577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0238, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.658, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3489, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8394, "team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0339, "after": 0.0417 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0316, "after": 0.0406 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9324, "tackles": 1.212, "tackles_won": 0.7881, "clearances": 4.6926, "aerial_won": 1.3795, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7785, "minutes": 89.57, "total_pass": 44.1751, "accurate_pass": 38.3579, "duels_won": 3.2381, "total_long_balls": 5.8855, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6353, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7155, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9499, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6426, "crosses_total": 0.0188, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.9065, "possession_lost": 6.4905, "dispossessed": 0.0257, "duels_lost": 2.0348, "aerial_lost": 1.0945, "total_contest": 0.3036, "won_contest": 0.2803, "ball_recovery": 4.2825, "challenges_lost": 0.2096, "fouls": 0.7176, "fouls_drawn": 0.4554, "blocks": 0.723, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "shots_on_target": 0.1541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 13.4628, "total_progression": 61.0913, "progressive_carries": 0.9317, "key_pass": 0.1926, "shots_off_target": 0.3577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0238, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3967, "fifa_rank": 3519.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9324, "tackles": 1.212, "tackles_won": 0.7881, "clearances": 4.6926, "aerial_won": 1.3795, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7785, "minutes": 89.57, "total_pass": 44.1751, "accurate_pass": 38.3579, "duels_won": 3.2381, "total_long_balls": 5.8855, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6353, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7155, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9499, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6426, "crosses_total": 0.0188, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.9065, "possession_lost": 6.4905, "dispossessed": 0.0257, "duels_lost": 2.0348, "aerial_lost": 1.0945, "total_contest": 0.3036, "won_contest": 0.2803, "ball_recovery": 4.2825, "challenges_lost": 0.2096, "fouls": 0.7176, "fouls_drawn": 0.4554, "blocks": 0.723, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "shots_on_target": 0.1541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 13.4628, "total_progression": 61.0913, "progressive_carries": 0.9317, "key_pass": 0.1926, "shots_off_target": 0.3577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0408, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0238, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "scorer_weight": 0.0427, "squad_weight_total": 1.6973, "weight_share": 0.0252, "finishing_factor": 1.0238, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Stassin", "weight": 0.3099, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3099, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3037 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3037, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3037, "runner_up": "Isaac Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2781 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9324, "tackles": 1.212, "tackles_won": 0.7881, "clearances": 4.6926, "aerial_won": 1.3795, "total_shots": 0.5119, "rating": 6.7785, "minutes": 89.57, "total_pass": 44.1751, "accurate_pass": 38.3579, "duels_won": 3.2381, "total_long_balls": 5.8855, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6353, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7155, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9499, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6426, "crosses_total": 0.0188, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.9065, "possession_lost": 6.4905, "dispossessed": 0.0257, "duels_lost": 2.0348, "aerial_lost": 1.0945, "total_contest": 0.3036, "won_contest": 0.2803, "ball_recovery": 4.2825, "challenges_lost": 0.2096, "fouls": 0.7176, "fouls_drawn": 0.4554, "blocks": 0.723, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "shots_on_target": 0.1541, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 13.4628, "total_progression": 61.0913, "progressive_carries": 0.9317, "key_pass": 0.1926, "shots_off_target": 0.3577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.217371 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.0607 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.045128 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024412 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.023427 } ], "others_margin": 0.046037 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.847721099853516, "model_output": 6.8477, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0099, "total": 6.8477, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.033602 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.020012 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012614 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.010489 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.00891 } ], "others_margin": -0.009898 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.584)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0669, "tackles": 2.0014, "tackles_won": 1.2323, "clearances": 5.9132, "aerial_won": 2.9303, "total_shots": 0.8999, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 89.89, "total_pass": 45.1896, "accurate_pass": 35.9383, "duels_won": 5.8604, "total_long_balls": 9.912, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8328, "total_own_half_passes": 24.3648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.8376, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1007, "crosses_total": 0.4407, "crosses_accurate": 0.0774, "touches": 60.1288, "possession_lost": 11.0214, "dispossessed": 0.1123, "duels_lost": 4.35, "aerial_lost": 1.8368, "total_contest": 0.3823, "won_contest": 0.0782, "ball_recovery": 4.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.9456, "fouls": 1.2434, "fouls_drawn": 0.548, "blocks": 0.5938, "goals": 0.034, 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0.5586, "blocks": 0.5938, "goals": 0.0336, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0587, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.556, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.055, "ball_carries": 12.6476, "total_progression": 37.4125, "progressive_carries": 0.277, "key_pass": 0.3696, "shots_off_target": 0.3377 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0661, "tackles": 2.0014, "tackles_won": 1.2297, "clearances": 5.9132, "aerial_won": 2.9303, "total_shots": 0.9069, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 89.89, "total_pass": 45.1896, "accurate_pass": 35.9383, "duels_won": 5.8604, "total_long_balls": 9.912, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8328, "total_own_half_passes": 24.3648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.8376, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1007, "crosses_total": 0.4358, "crosses_accurate": 0.0774, "touches": 60.1288, "possession_lost": 11.0214, "dispossessed": 0.1123, "duels_lost": 4.35, "aerial_lost": 1.8368, "total_contest": 0.3823, "won_contest": 0.0782, "ball_recovery": 4.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.9456, "fouls": 1.2462, "fouls_drawn": 0.5586, "blocks": 0.5938, "goals": 0.0336, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0587, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.556, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.055, "ball_carries": 12.6476, "total_progression": 37.4125, "progressive_carries": 0.277, "key_pass": 0.3696, "shots_off_target": 0.3377, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 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11.0214, "dispossessed": 0.1123, "duels_lost": 4.35, "aerial_lost": 1.8368, "total_contest": 0.3823, "won_contest": 0.0782, "ball_recovery": 4.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.9456, "fouls": 1.2462, "fouls_drawn": 0.5586, "blocks": 0.5938, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0587, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.556, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.055, "ball_carries": 12.6476, "total_progression": 37.4125, "progressive_carries": 0.277, "key_pass": 0.3696, "shots_off_target": 0.3377, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.3489, xG scale 1.2292, xA scale 1.2838, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0661, "tackles": 2.0014, "tackles_won": 1.2297, "clearances": 5.9132, "aerial_won": 2.9303, "total_shots": 0.9069, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 89.89, "total_pass": 45.1896, "accurate_pass": 35.9383, "duels_won": 5.8604, "total_long_balls": 9.912, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8328, "total_own_half_passes": 24.3648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.8376, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1007, "crosses_total": 0.4358, "crosses_accurate": 0.0774, "touches": 60.1288, "possession_lost": 11.0214, "dispossessed": 0.1123, "duels_lost": 4.35, "aerial_lost": 1.8368, "total_contest": 0.3823, "won_contest": 0.0782, "ball_recovery": 4.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.9456, "fouls": 1.2462, "fouls_drawn": 0.5586, "blocks": 0.5938, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0722, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "shots_on_target": 0.556, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0676, "ball_carries": 12.6476, "total_progression": 37.4125, "progressive_carries": 0.277, "key_pass": 0.3696, "shots_off_target": 0.3377, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.658, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3489, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8394, "team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0587, "after": 0.0722 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0412, "after": 0.0529 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_rank": 1986.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0661, "tackles": 2.0014, "tackles_won": 1.2297, "clearances": 5.9132, "aerial_won": 2.9303, "total_shots": 0.9069, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 89.89, "total_pass": 45.1896, "accurate_pass": 35.9383, "duels_won": 5.8604, "total_long_balls": 9.912, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8328, "total_own_half_passes": 24.3648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.8376, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1007, "crosses_total": 0.4358, "crosses_accurate": 0.0774, "touches": 60.1288, "possession_lost": 11.0214, "dispossessed": 0.1123, "duels_lost": 4.35, "aerial_lost": 1.8368, "total_contest": 0.3823, "won_contest": 0.0782, "ball_recovery": 4.4976, "challenges_lost": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1334 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0518 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0135, "total": 0.3881, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.133386 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051816 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.017082 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011859 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008252 } ], "others_margin": -0.013424 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.77256965637207, "model_output": 6.7726, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.027, "total": 6.7726, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023256 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017781 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.015356 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 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2.1256 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.576, "after": 1.5962 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0812, "tackles": 2.1303, "tackles_won": 1.4483, "clearances": 2.1698, "aerial_won": 0.6168, "total_shots": 0.3878, "rating": 6.7726, "minutes": 88.31, "total_pass": 39.2143, "accurate_pass": 32.729, "duels_won": 4.7346, "total_long_balls": 3.3416, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4961, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8235, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2615, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9054, "crosses_total": 2.1256, "crosses_accurate": 0.7866, "touches": 58.9301, "possession_lost": 10.3131, "dispossessed": 0.132, "duels_lost": 3.7772, "aerial_lost": 0.8137, "total_contest": 0.7304, "won_contest": 0.5986, "ball_recovery": 4.3305, "challenges_lost": 1.2333, "fouls": 1.5962, "fouls_drawn": 1.0192, "blocks": 0.4388, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 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"duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dani Carvajal", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0812, "tackles": 2.1303, "tackles_won": 1.4483, "clearances": 2.1698, "aerial_won": 0.6168, "total_shots": 0.3878, "rating": 6.7726, "minutes": 88.31, "total_pass": 39.2143, "accurate_pass": 32.729, "duels_won": 4.7346, "total_long_balls": 3.3416, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4961, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8235, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2615, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9054, "crosses_total": 2.1256, "crosses_accurate": 0.7866, "touches": 58.9301, "possession_lost": 10.3131, "dispossessed": 0.132, "duels_lost": 3.7772, "aerial_lost": 0.8137, 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"team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1437, "after": 0.1844 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.446)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0914, "goals": 0.1667, "goal_rate": 0.1667, "shots_on_target": 0.3725, "total_shots": 1.1957, "expected_assists": 0.0813, "key_pass": 0.8733, "rating": 6.7959, "minutes": 71.35, "total_pass": 23.6397, "accurate_pass": 19.4394, "duels_won": 4.7942, "total_long_balls": 1.8335, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4861, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7984, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3814, "crosses_total": 1.607, "crosses_accurate": 0.066, "touches": 41.0968, "possession_lost": 12.6457, "dispossessed": 1.5019, "duels_lost": 4.6909, "aerial_lost": 1.0527, "total_contest": 4.3709, "won_contest": 2.655, "ball_recovery": 4.8404, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4203, "fouls_drawn": 0.8939, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.8964, "tackles_won": 0.4322, "tackles": 0.9218, "clearances": 0.4274, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1263, "xgot": 0.0477, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6836, "total_progression": 103.7914, "progressive_carries": 4.4995, "shots_off_target": 0.8232 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3700000, "quality_factor": 0.4461, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0054)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0914, "goals": 0.1701, "goal_rate": 0.1701, "shots_on_target": 0.3746, "total_shots": 1.1974, "expected_assists": 0.0813, "key_pass": 0.8733, "rating": 6.7959, "minutes": 71.35, "total_pass": 23.6397, "accurate_pass": 19.4394, "duels_won": 4.7942, "total_long_balls": 1.8335, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4861, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7984, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3814, "crosses_total": 1.6112, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.616)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5251, "expected_assists": 0.0463, "assists": 0.0522, "assist_rate": 0.0522, "expected_goals": 0.0478, "goals": 0.0532, "goal_rate": 0.0532, "shots_on_target": 0.173, "total_shots": 0.6277, "rating": 6.8971, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 42.9066, "accurate_pass": 35.7197, "duels_won": 4.3312, "total_long_balls": 7.0842, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2434, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6774, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.1278, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.2293, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.592, "crosses_total": 0.1896, "crosses_accurate": 0.0375, "touches": 56.3545, "possession_lost": 9.8835, "dispossessed": 0.5037, "duels_lost": 5.1486, "aerial_won": 0.4307, "aerial_lost": 1.1655, "interceptions": 1.3372, "tackles_won": 2.1139, "tackles": 3.1594, "clearances": 1.6915, "total_contest": 0.8353, "won_contest": 0.3223, "challenges_lost": 1.3651, "fouls": 1.7691, "fouls_drawn": 0.4188, "blocks": 0.1188, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.069, "ball_carries": 12.641, "total_progression": 36.0618, "progressive_carries": 0.898, "shots_off_target": 0.4546 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18500000, "quality_factor": 0.6161, "boost_factor": 1.0034, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0133)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5251, "expected_assists": 0.0463, "assists": 0.0515, "assist_rate": 0.0515, "expected_goals": 0.0478, "goals": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "shots_on_target": 0.1707, "total_shots": 0.6281, "rating": 6.8971, "minutes": 88.46, "total_pass": 42.9066, "accurate_pass": 35.7197, "duels_won": 4.3312, "total_long_balls": 7.0842, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2434, 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0110, quality 0.593)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1176, "expected_assists": 0.112, "assists": 0.1606, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "expected_goals": 0.1333, "goals": 0.1351, "goal_rate": 0.1351, "shots_on_target": 0.5915, "total_shots": 1.6173, "rating": 6.886, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 31.6961, "accurate_pass": 25.788, "duels_won": 4.2726, "total_long_balls": 1.9703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5442, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5728, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2151, "crosses_total": 0.207, "crosses_accurate": 0.207, "touches": 44.9121, "possession_lost": 9.7504, "dispossessed": 0.1495, "duels_lost": 3.3621, "aerial_won": 0.8265, "aerial_lost": 0.609, "interceptions": 1.1313, "tackles_won": 0.8636, "tackles": 1.9197, "clearances": 0.303, "total_contest": 3.4944, "won_contest": 1.2425, "challenges_lost": 0.3515, "fouls": 0.207, "fouls_drawn": 0.284, "blocks": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.1759, "big_chances_missed": 0.2555, "xgot": 0.229, "ball_carries": 8.9527, "total_progression": 68.0894, "progressive_carries": 2.0871, "shots_off_target": 1.0258 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16300000, "quality_factor": 0.5932, "boost_factor": 1.011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1176, "expected_assists": 0.112, "assists": 0.1606, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "expected_goals": 0.1333, "goals": 0.1351, "goal_rate": 0.1351, "shots_on_target": 0.5915, "total_shots": 1.6173, "rating": 6.886, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 31.6961, "accurate_pass": 25.788, "duels_won": 4.2726, "total_long_balls": 1.9703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5442, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5728, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2151, "crosses_total": 0.207, "crosses_accurate": 0.207, "touches": 44.9121, "possession_lost": 9.7504, "dispossessed": 0.1495, "duels_lost": 3.3621, "aerial_won": 0.8265, "aerial_lost": 0.609, "interceptions": 1.1313, "tackles_won": 0.8636, "tackles": 1.9197, "clearances": 0.303, "total_contest": 3.4944, "won_contest": 1.2425, "challenges_lost": 0.3515, "fouls": 0.207, "fouls_drawn": 0.284, "blocks": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.1759, "big_chances_missed": 0.2555, "xgot": 0.229, "ball_carries": 8.9527, "total_progression": 68.0894, "progressive_carries": 2.0871, "shots_off_target": 1.0258 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1176, "expected_assists": 0.112, "assists": 0.1606, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "expected_goals": 0.1511, "goals": 0.1531, "goal_rate": 0.1531, "shots_on_target": 0.6703, "total_shots": 1.8327, "rating": 6.886, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 31.6961, "accurate_pass": 25.788, "duels_won": 4.2726, "total_long_balls": 1.9703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5442, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5728, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2151, "crosses_total": 0.207, "crosses_accurate": 0.207, "touches": 44.9121, "possession_lost": 9.7504, "dispossessed": 0.1495, "duels_lost": 3.3621, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.609, "interceptions": 1.1313, "tackles_won": 0.8636, "tackles": 1.9197, "clearances": 0.303, "total_contest": 3.4944, "won_contest": 1.2425, "challenges_lost": 0.3515, "fouls": 0.207, "fouls_drawn": 0.284, "blocks": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.1759, "big_chances_missed": 0.2895, "xgot": 0.2595, "ball_carries": 8.9527, "total_progression": 68.0894, "progressive_carries": 2.0871, "shots_off_target": 1.1624, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1332, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Davinchi", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1332, "skill_edge": 0.0786, "height_edge": 0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.6121, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Davinchi", "market_value": 1800000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1511 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.8265, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6173, "after": 1.8327 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0258, "after": 1.1624 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5915, "after": 0.6703 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2555, "after": 0.2895 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.229, "after": 0.2595 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1351, "after": 0.1531 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1333, "after": 0.1511 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1176, "expected_assists": 0.112, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1511, "goal_rate": 0.1531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6703, "total_shots": 1.8327, "rating": 6.886, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 31.6961, "accurate_pass": 25.788, "duels_won": 4.2726, "total_long_balls": 1.9703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5442, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5728, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2151, "crosses_total": 0.207, "crosses_accurate": 0.207, "touches": 44.9121, "possession_lost": 9.7504, "dispossessed": 0.1495, "duels_lost": 3.3621, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.609, "interceptions": 1.1313, "tackles_won": 0.8636, "tackles": 1.9197, "clearances": 0.303, "total_contest": 3.4944, "won_contest": 1.2425, "challenges_lost": 0.3515, "fouls": 0.207, "fouls_drawn": 0.284, "blocks": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.1759, "big_chances_missed": 0.2895, "xgot": 0.2595, "ball_carries": 8.9527, "total_progression": 68.0894, "progressive_carries": 2.0871, "shots_off_target": 1.1624, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1332, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.3489, xG scale 1.2292, xA scale 1.2838, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1176, "expected_assists": 0.1438, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1857, "goal_rate": 0.1531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6703, "total_shots": 1.8327, "rating": 6.886, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 31.6961, "accurate_pass": 25.788, "duels_won": 4.2726, "total_long_balls": 1.9703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5442, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5728, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2151, "crosses_total": 0.207, "crosses_accurate": 0.207, "touches": 44.9121, "possession_lost": 9.7504, "dispossessed": 0.1495, "duels_lost": 3.3621, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.609, "interceptions": 1.1313, "tackles_won": 0.8636, "tackles": 1.9197, "clearances": 0.303, "total_contest": 3.4944, "won_contest": 1.2425, "challenges_lost": 0.3515, "fouls": 0.207, "fouls_drawn": 0.284, "blocks": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.1759, "big_chances_missed": 0.2895, "xgot": 0.319, "ball_carries": 8.9527, "total_progression": 68.0894, "progressive_carries": 2.0871, "shots_off_target": 1.1624, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1332, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0099, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.658, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3489, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8394, "team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1511, "after": 0.1857 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.112, "after": 0.1438 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1176, "expected_assists": 0.1438, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1857, "goal_rate": 0.1531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6703, "total_shots": 1.8327, "rating": 6.886, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 31.6961, "accurate_pass": 25.788, "duels_won": 4.2726, "total_long_balls": 1.9703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5442, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5728, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2151, "crosses_total": 0.207, "crosses_accurate": 0.207, "touches": 44.9121, "possession_lost": 9.7504, "dispossessed": 0.1495, "duels_lost": 3.3621, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.609, "interceptions": 1.1313, "tackles_won": 0.8636, "tackles": 1.9197, "clearances": 0.303, "total_contest": 3.4944, "won_contest": 1.2425, "challenges_lost": 0.3515, "fouls": 0.207, "fouls_drawn": 0.284, "blocks": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.1759, "big_chances_missed": 0.2895, "xgot": 0.319, "ball_carries": 8.9527, "total_progression": 68.0894, "progressive_carries": 2.0871, "shots_off_target": 1.1624, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1332, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0099, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 857, "fifa_rank": 739.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1176, "expected_assists": 0.1438, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1857, "goal_rate": 0.1531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6703, "total_shots": 1.8327, "rating": 6.886, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 31.6961, "accurate_pass": 25.788, "duels_won": 4.2726, "total_long_balls": 1.9703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5442, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5728, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2151, "crosses_total": 0.207, "crosses_accurate": 0.207, "touches": 44.9121, "possession_lost": 9.7504, "dispossessed": 0.1495, "duels_lost": 3.3621, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.609, "interceptions": 1.1313, "tackles_won": 0.8636, "tackles": 1.9197, "clearances": 0.303, "total_contest": 3.4944, "won_contest": 1.2425, "challenges_lost": 0.3515, "fouls": 0.207, "fouls_drawn": 0.284, "blocks": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.1759, "big_chances_missed": 0.2895, "xgot": 0.319, "ball_carries": 8.9527, "total_progression": 68.0894, "progressive_carries": 2.0871, "shots_off_target": 1.1624, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1332, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1695, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0099, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1695, "goal_rate": 0.1531, "scorer_weight": 0.1875, "squad_weight_total": 1.6973, "weight_share": 0.1105, "finishing_factor": 1.0099, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Stassin", "weight": 0.3099, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3099, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3037 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3037, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3037, "runner_up": "Isaac Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2781 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1176, "expected_assists": 0.1438, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1857, "goal_rate": 0.1531, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6703, "total_shots": 1.8327, "rating": 6.886, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 31.6961, "accurate_pass": 25.788, "duels_won": 4.2726, "total_long_balls": 1.9703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5442, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5728, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2151, "crosses_total": 0.207, "crosses_accurate": 0.207, "touches": 44.9121, "possession_lost": 9.7504, "dispossessed": 0.1495, "duels_lost": 3.3621, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.609, "interceptions": 1.1313, "tackles_won": 0.8636, "tackles": 1.9197, "clearances": 0.303, "total_contest": 3.4944, "won_contest": 1.2425, "challenges_lost": 0.3515, "fouls": 0.207, "fouls_drawn": 0.284, "blocks": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.1759, "big_chances_missed": 0.2895, "xgot": 0.319, "ball_carries": 8.9527, "total_progression": 68.0894, "progressive_carries": 2.0871, "shots_off_target": 1.1624, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1332, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1695, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1339, "finishing_factor": 1.0099, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1339, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "provider_weight": 0.1798, "squad_weight_total": 1.029, "weight_share": 0.1747, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.1798, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1798, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1711 } ] } } ] }, "Lucas Stassin": { "player_id": 1126521, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 184, "market_value": 15700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3097, "goal_rate": 0.2522, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0526, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.77, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 9.52, "dispossessed": 0.2844, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1941, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1223, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 2, 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"expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009196 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009022 } ], "others_margin": -0.069059 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2085, "goals": 0.2169, "goal_rate": 0.2169, "shots_on_target": 0.5885, "total_shots": 1.7881, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.701, "rating": 6.7297, "minutes": 64.88, "total_pass": 15.8954, "accurate_pass": 11.9682, "duels_won": 3.9473, "total_long_balls": 0.9895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3581, "crosses_total": 0.6078, "crosses_accurate": 0.0422, "touches": 29.8497, "possession_lost": 10.6619, "dispossessed": 1.1588, "duels_lost": 6.0101, "aerial_lost": 1.4939, "total_contest": 1.6806, "won_contest": 0.1966, "ball_recovery": 2.7592, "challenges_lost": 0.2818, "fouls": 1.5915, "fouls_drawn": 1.0212, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1625, "tackles_won": 0.7652, "tackles": 0.9707, "clearances": 0.5508, "blocks": 0.0687, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "big_chances_missed": 0.1349, "xgot": 0.1245, "offsides": 0.2301, "ball_carries": 6.62, "total_progression": 17.3741, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 1.1995 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9986, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0067)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2085, "goals": 0.2192, "goal_rate": 0.2192, "shots_on_target": 0.5884, "total_shots": 1.7877, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.701, "rating": 6.7297, "minutes": 64.88, "total_pass": 15.8954, "accurate_pass": 11.9682, "duels_won": 3.9473, "total_long_balls": 0.9895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3581, "crosses_total": 0.6074, "crosses_accurate": 0.0422, "touches": 29.8497, "possession_lost": 10.6619, "dispossessed": 1.1588, "duels_lost": 6.0101, "aerial_lost": 1.4939, "total_contest": 1.6806, "won_contest": 0.1966, "ball_recovery": 2.7592, "challenges_lost": 0.2818, "fouls": 1.5994, "fouls_drawn": 1.0181, "assists": 0.0037, "assist_rate": 0.0037, "interceptions": 0.1651, "tackles_won": 0.7638, "tackles": 0.9707, "clearances": 0.5508, "blocks": 0.0687, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "big_chances_missed": 0.1349, "xgot": 0.1245, "offsides": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 6.62, "total_progression": 17.3741, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 1.1995 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0067, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7209, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.5915, "after": 1.5994 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2085, "goals": 0.2192, "goal_rate": 0.2192, "shots_on_target": 0.5884, "total_shots": 1.7879, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.701, "rating": 6.7297, "minutes": 64.88, "total_pass": 15.8954, "accurate_pass": 11.9682, "duels_won": 3.9473, "total_long_balls": 0.9895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3581, "crosses_total": 0.6074, "crosses_accurate": 0.0422, "touches": 29.8497, "possession_lost": 10.6619, "dispossessed": 1.1588, "duels_lost": 6.0101, "aerial_lost": 1.4939, "total_contest": 1.6806, "won_contest": 0.1966, "ball_recovery": 2.7592, "challenges_lost": 0.2818, "fouls": 1.5994, "fouls_drawn": 1.0181, "assists": 0.0037, "assist_rate": 0.0037, "interceptions": 0.1651, "tackles_won": 0.7638, "tackles": 0.9707, "clearances": 0.5508, "blocks": 0.0687, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "big_chances_missed": 0.1349, "xgot": 0.1245, "offsides": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 6.62, "total_progression": 17.3741, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 1.1995 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2172, "goals": 0.2283, "goal_rate": 0.2283, "shots_on_target": 0.6128, "total_shots": 1.8621, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.701, "rating": 6.7297, "minutes": 64.88, "total_pass": 15.8954, "accurate_pass": 11.9682, "duels_won": 3.9473, "total_long_balls": 0.9895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3581, "crosses_total": 0.6074, "crosses_accurate": 0.0422, "touches": 29.8497, "possession_lost": 10.6619, "dispossessed": 1.1588, "duels_lost": 6.0101, "aerial_lost": 1.4939, "total_contest": 1.6806, "won_contest": 0.1966, "ball_recovery": 2.7592, "challenges_lost": 0.2818, "fouls": 1.5994, "fouls_drawn": 1.0181, "assists": 0.0037, "assist_rate": 0.0037, "interceptions": 0.1651, "tackles_won": 0.7638, "tackles": 0.9707, "clearances": 0.5508, "blocks": 0.0687, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "big_chances_missed": 0.1405, "xgot": 0.1297, "offsides": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 6.62, "total_progression": 17.3741, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 1.2493, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0415, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi, Djené", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi, Djené", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Davinchi, Djené", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0415, "skill_edge": 0.0122, "height_edge": 0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.4646, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Davinchi", "market_value": 1800000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Djené", "market_value": 1500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.2172 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7879, "after": 1.8621 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1995, "after": 1.2493 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5884, "after": 0.6128 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2192, "after": 0.2283 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2085, "after": 0.2172 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1349, "after": 0.1405 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1245, "after": 0.1297 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2172, "goal_rate": 0.2283, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6128, "total_shots": 1.8621, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "key_pass": 0.701, "rating": 6.7297, "minutes": 64.88, "total_pass": 15.8954, "accurate_pass": 11.9682, "duels_won": 3.9473, "total_long_balls": 0.9895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3581, "crosses_total": 0.6074, "crosses_accurate": 0.0422, "touches": 29.8497, "possession_lost": 10.6619, "dispossessed": 1.1588, "duels_lost": 6.0101, "aerial_lost": 1.4939, "total_contest": 1.6806, "won_contest": 0.1966, "ball_recovery": 2.7592, "challenges_lost": 0.2818, "fouls": 1.5994, "fouls_drawn": 1.0181, "assist_rate": 0.0037, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1651, "tackles_won": 0.7638, "tackles": 0.9707, "clearances": 0.5508, "blocks": 0.0687, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "big_chances_missed": 0.1405, "xgot": 0.1297, "offsides": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 6.62, "total_progression": 17.3741, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 1.2493, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0415, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi, Djené", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi, Djené", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.3489, xG scale 1.2292, xA scale 1.2838, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.267, "goal_rate": 0.2283, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6128, "total_shots": 1.8621, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "key_pass": 0.701, "rating": 6.7297, "minutes": 64.88, "total_pass": 15.8954, "accurate_pass": 11.9682, "duels_won": 3.9473, "total_long_balls": 0.9895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3581, "crosses_total": 0.6074, "crosses_accurate": 0.0422, "touches": 29.8497, "possession_lost": 10.6619, "dispossessed": 1.1588, "duels_lost": 6.0101, "aerial_lost": 1.4939, "total_contest": 1.6806, "won_contest": 0.1966, "ball_recovery": 2.7592, "challenges_lost": 0.2818, "fouls": 1.5994, "fouls_drawn": 1.0181, "assist_rate": 0.0037, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1651, "tackles_won": 0.7638, "tackles": 0.9707, "clearances": 0.5508, "blocks": 0.0687, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "big_chances_missed": 0.1405, "xgot": 0.1594, "offsides": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 6.62, "total_progression": 17.3741, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 1.2493, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0415, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi, Djené", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi, Djené", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0415, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.658, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3489, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8394, "team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2172, "after": 0.267 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0441, "after": 0.0566 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.267, "goal_rate": 0.2283, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6128, "total_shots": 1.8621, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "key_pass": 0.701, "rating": 6.7297, "minutes": 64.88, "total_pass": 15.8954, "accurate_pass": 11.9682, "duels_won": 3.9473, "total_long_balls": 0.9895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3581, "crosses_total": 0.6074, "crosses_accurate": 0.0422, "touches": 29.8497, "possession_lost": 10.6619, "dispossessed": 1.1588, "duels_lost": 6.0101, "aerial_lost": 1.4939, "total_contest": 1.6806, "won_contest": 0.1966, "ball_recovery": 2.7592, "challenges_lost": 0.2818, "fouls": 1.5994, "fouls_drawn": 1.0181, "assist_rate": 0.0037, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1651, "tackles_won": 0.7638, "tackles": 0.9707, "clearances": 0.5508, "blocks": 0.0687, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "big_chances_missed": 0.1405, "xgot": 0.1594, "offsides": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 6.62, "total_progression": 17.3741, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 1.2493, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0415, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi, Djené", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi, Djené", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3715, "fifa_rank": 2874.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.267, "goal_rate": 0.2283, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6128, "total_shots": 1.8621, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "key_pass": 0.701, "rating": 6.7297, "minutes": 64.88, "total_pass": 15.8954, "accurate_pass": 11.9682, "duels_won": 3.9473, "total_long_balls": 0.9895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3581, "crosses_total": 0.6074, "crosses_accurate": 0.0422, "touches": 29.8497, "possession_lost": 10.6619, "dispossessed": 1.1588, "duels_lost": 6.0101, "aerial_lost": 1.4939, "total_contest": 1.6806, "won_contest": 0.1966, "ball_recovery": 2.7592, "challenges_lost": 0.2818, "fouls": 1.5994, "fouls_drawn": 1.0181, "assist_rate": 0.0037, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1651, "tackles_won": 0.7638, "tackles": 0.9707, "clearances": 0.5508, "blocks": 0.0687, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "big_chances_missed": 0.1405, "xgot": 0.1594, "offsides": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 6.62, "total_progression": 17.3741, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 1.2493, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0415, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi, Djené", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi, Djené", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2343, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2343, "goal_rate": 0.2283, "scorer_weight": 0.2781, "squad_weight_total": 1.6973, "weight_share": 0.1638, "finishing_factor": 1.0415, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Stassin", "weight": 0.3099, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3099, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3037 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3037, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3037, "runner_up": "Isaac Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2781 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.267, "goal_rate": 0.2283, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6128, "total_shots": 1.8621, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "key_pass": 0.701, "rating": 6.7297, "minutes": 64.88, "total_pass": 15.8954, "accurate_pass": 11.9682, "duels_won": 3.9473, "total_long_balls": 0.9895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5208, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3581, "crosses_total": 0.6074, "crosses_accurate": 0.0422, "touches": 29.8497, "possession_lost": 10.6619, "dispossessed": 1.1588, "duels_lost": 6.0101, "aerial_lost": 1.4939, "total_contest": 1.6806, "won_contest": 0.1966, "ball_recovery": 2.7592, "challenges_lost": 0.2818, "fouls": 1.5994, "fouls_drawn": 1.0181, "assist_rate": 0.0037, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1651, "tackles_won": 0.7638, "tackles": 0.9707, "clearances": 0.5508, "blocks": 0.0687, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "big_chances_missed": 0.1405, "xgot": 0.1594, "offsides": 0.2286, "ball_carries": 6.62, "total_progression": 17.3741, "progressive_carries": 0.5306, "shots_off_target": 1.2493, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0415, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "LOW", 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"contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0167 } ], "others": -0.008, "total": 6.8738, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051351 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.034551 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.023083 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.017453 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016725 } ], "others_margin": -0.008006 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0019, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2502, "goals": 0.2346, "goal_rate": 0.2346, "shots_on_target": 0.6674, "total_shots": 1.9416, "expected_assists": 0.1066, "key_pass": 1.3714, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 76.97, "total_pass": 24.0254, "accurate_pass": 16.8193, "duels_won": 2.7802, "total_long_balls": 1.7351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8524, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4284, "crosses_total": 2.9761, "crosses_accurate": 1.0451, "touches": 36.7795, "possession_lost": 11.0913, "dispossessed": 0.2413, "duels_lost": 3.2061, "aerial_lost": 0.9124, "total_contest": 1.6595, "won_contest": 0.93, "ball_recovery": 3.1933, "challenges_lost": 0.5294, "fouls": 0.9194, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.1482, "assist_rate": 0.1482, "interceptions": 1.4115, "tackles_won": 0.3673, "tackles": 0.4932, "clearances": 0.4262, "blocks": 0.4968, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2532, "xgot": 0.224, "offsides": 0.2116, "ball_carries": 10.2716, "total_progression": 44.9649, "progressive_carries": 1.816, "shots_off_target": 1.2742 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9700000, "quality_factor": 0.5189, "boost_factor": 1.0019, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2502, "goals": 0.2346, "goal_rate": 0.2346, "shots_on_target": 0.6674, "total_shots": 1.9416, "expected_assists": 0.1066, "key_pass": 1.3714, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 76.97, "total_pass": 24.0254, "accurate_pass": 16.8193, "duels_won": 2.7802, "total_long_balls": 1.7351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8524, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4284, "crosses_total": 2.9761, "crosses_accurate": 1.0451, "touches": 36.7795, "possession_lost": 11.0913, "dispossessed": 0.2413, "duels_lost": 3.2061, "aerial_lost": 0.9124, "total_contest": 1.6595, "won_contest": 0.93, "ball_recovery": 3.1933, "challenges_lost": 0.5294, "fouls": 0.9194, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.1482, "assist_rate": 0.1482, "interceptions": 1.4115, "tackles_won": 0.3673, "tackles": 0.4932, "clearances": 0.4262, "blocks": 0.4968, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2532, "xgot": 0.224, "offsides": 0.2116, "ball_carries": 10.2716, "total_progression": 44.9649, "progressive_carries": 1.816, "shots_off_target": 1.2742 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2608, "goals": 0.2445, "goal_rate": 0.2445, "shots_on_target": 0.6956, "total_shots": 2.0236, "expected_assists": 0.1066, "key_pass": 1.3714, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 76.97, "total_pass": 24.0254, "accurate_pass": 16.8193, "duels_won": 2.7802, "total_long_balls": 1.7351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8524, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4284, "crosses_total": 2.9761, "crosses_accurate": 1.0451, "touches": 36.7795, "possession_lost": 11.0913, "dispossessed": 0.2413, "duels_lost": 3.2061, "aerial_lost": 0.9124, "total_contest": 1.6595, "won_contest": 0.93, "ball_recovery": 3.1933, "challenges_lost": 0.5294, "fouls": 0.9194, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.1482, "assist_rate": 0.1482, "interceptions": 1.4115, "tackles_won": 0.3673, "tackles": 0.4932, "clearances": 0.4262, "blocks": 0.4968, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2639, "xgot": 0.2335, "offsides": 0.2116, "ball_carries": 10.2716, "total_progression": 44.9649, "progressive_carries": 1.816, "shots_off_target": 1.328, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0422, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi, Djené", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi, Djené", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Davinchi, Djené", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0422, "skill_edge": 0.0367, "height_edge": -0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.5189, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Davinchi", "market_value": 1800000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Djené", "market_value": 1500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.2608 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9416, "after": 2.0236 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2742, "after": 1.328 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6674, "after": 0.6956 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2532, "after": 0.2639 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2502, "after": 0.2608 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2346, "after": 0.2445 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.224, "after": 0.2335 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2608, "goal_rate": 0.2445, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6956, "total_shots": 2.0236, "expected_assists": 0.1066, "key_pass": 1.3714, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 76.97, "total_pass": 24.0254, "accurate_pass": 16.8193, "duels_won": 2.7802, "total_long_balls": 1.7351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8524, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4284, "crosses_total": 2.9761, "crosses_accurate": 1.0451, "touches": 36.7795, "possession_lost": 11.0913, "dispossessed": 0.2413, "duels_lost": 3.2061, "aerial_lost": 0.9124, "total_contest": 1.6595, "won_contest": 0.93, "ball_recovery": 3.1933, "challenges_lost": 0.5294, "fouls": 0.9194, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.1482, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.4115, "tackles_won": 0.3673, "tackles": 0.4932, "clearances": 0.4262, "blocks": 0.4968, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2639, "xgot": 0.2335, "offsides": 0.2116, "ball_carries": 10.2716, "total_progression": 44.9649, "progressive_carries": 1.816, "shots_off_target": 1.328, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0422, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi, Djené", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi, Djené", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.3489, xG scale 1.2292, xA scale 1.2838, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3205, "goal_rate": 0.2445, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6956, "total_shots": 2.0236, "expected_assists": 0.1369, "key_pass": 1.3714, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 76.97, "total_pass": 24.0254, "accurate_pass": 16.8193, "duels_won": 2.7802, "total_long_balls": 1.7351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8524, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4284, "crosses_total": 2.9761, "crosses_accurate": 1.0451, "touches": 36.7795, "possession_lost": 11.0913, "dispossessed": 0.2413, "duels_lost": 3.2061, "aerial_lost": 0.9124, "total_contest": 1.6595, "won_contest": 0.93, "ball_recovery": 3.1933, "challenges_lost": 0.5294, "fouls": 0.9194, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.1482, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.4115, "tackles_won": 0.3673, "tackles": 0.4932, "clearances": 0.4262, "blocks": 0.4968, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2639, "xgot": 0.287, "offsides": 0.2116, "ball_carries": 10.2716, "total_progression": 44.9649, "progressive_carries": 1.816, "shots_off_target": 1.328, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0422, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi, Djené", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi, Djené", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9476, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.658, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3489, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8394, "team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2608, "after": 0.3205 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1066, "after": 0.1369 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3205, "goal_rate": 0.2445, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6956, "total_shots": 2.0236, "expected_assists": 0.1369, "key_pass": 1.3714, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 76.97, "total_pass": 24.0254, "accurate_pass": 16.8193, "duels_won": 2.7802, "total_long_balls": 1.7351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8524, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4284, "crosses_total": 2.9761, "crosses_accurate": 1.0451, "touches": 36.7795, "possession_lost": 11.0913, "dispossessed": 0.2413, "duels_lost": 3.2061, "aerial_lost": 0.9124, "total_contest": 1.6595, "won_contest": 0.93, "ball_recovery": 3.1933, "challenges_lost": 0.5294, "fouls": 0.9194, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.1482, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.4115, "tackles_won": 0.3673, "tackles": 0.4932, "clearances": 0.4262, "blocks": 0.4968, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2639, "xgot": 0.287, "offsides": 0.2116, "ball_carries": 10.2716, "total_progression": 44.9649, "progressive_carries": 1.816, "shots_off_target": 1.328, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0422, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi, Djené", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi, Djené", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9476, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3262, "fifa_rank": 2265.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3205, "goal_rate": 0.2445, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.6956, "total_shots": 2.0236, "expected_assists": 0.1369, "key_pass": 1.3714, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 76.97, "total_pass": 24.0254, "accurate_pass": 16.8193, "duels_won": 2.7802, "total_long_balls": 1.7351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8524, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4284, "crosses_total": 2.9761, "crosses_accurate": 1.0451, "touches": 36.7795, "possession_lost": 11.0913, "dispossessed": 0.2413, "duels_lost": 3.2061, "aerial_lost": 0.9124, "total_contest": 1.6595, "won_contest": 0.93, "ball_recovery": 3.1933, "challenges_lost": 0.5294, "fouls": 0.9194, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.1482, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.4115, "tackles_won": 0.3673, "tackles": 0.4932, "clearances": 0.4262, "blocks": 0.4968, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2639, "xgot": 0.287, "offsides": 0.2116, "ball_carries": 10.2716, "total_progression": 44.9649, "progressive_carries": 1.816, "shots_off_target": 1.328, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0422, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi, Djené", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi, Djené", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2742, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9476, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2742, "goal_rate": 0.2445, "scorer_weight": 0.3037, "squad_weight_total": 1.6973, "weight_share": 0.1789, "finishing_factor": 0.9476, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Stassin", "weight": 0.3099, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3099, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3037 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3037, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3037, "runner_up": "Isaac Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2781 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3205, "goal_rate": 0.2445, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.6956, "total_shots": 2.0236, "expected_assists": 0.1369, "key_pass": 1.3714, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 76.97, "total_pass": 24.0254, "accurate_pass": 16.8193, "duels_won": 2.7802, "total_long_balls": 1.7351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8524, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4284, "crosses_total": 2.9761, "crosses_accurate": 1.0451, "touches": 36.7795, "possession_lost": 11.0913, "dispossessed": 0.2413, "duels_lost": 3.2061, "aerial_lost": 0.9124, "total_contest": 1.6595, "won_contest": 0.93, "ball_recovery": 3.1933, "challenges_lost": 0.5294, "fouls": 0.9194, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.1482, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.4115, "tackles_won": 0.3673, "tackles": 0.4932, "clearances": 0.4262, "blocks": 0.4968, "big_chances_created": 0.1482, "big_chances_missed": 0.2639, "xgot": 0.287, "offsides": 0.2116, "ball_carries": 10.2716, "total_progression": 44.9649, "progressive_carries": 1.816, "shots_off_target": 1.328, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0422, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Davinchi, Djené", "opponent_faced": "Davinchi, Djené", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2742, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1279, "finishing_factor": 0.9476, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1279, "assist_rate": 0.1482, "provider_weight": 0.1711, "squad_weight_total": 1.029, "weight_share": 0.1663, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.1798, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1798, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1711 } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Fran González": { "player_id": 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per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1945 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0673 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 0.2241, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.194534 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.067309 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020763 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.016084 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.015186 } ], "others_margin": -0.004611 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0241 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0911, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0046 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.003 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": -0.0007, "total": 0.0573, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.395469, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.534429 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.11848 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.093424 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.056267 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.053234 } ], "others_margin": -0.01378 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09503380954265594, "model_output": 0.095, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0655 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0947, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0048 } ], "others": 0.0306, "total": 0.095, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.357331, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.33555 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.171429 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.122161 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.072277 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.071133 } ], "others_margin": 0.387484 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2686905562877655, "model_output": 0.2687, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1199 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0106 } ], "others": 0.0459, "total": 0.2687, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.473917 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.061604 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.060329 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.05182 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.048849 } ], "others_margin": 0.18749 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6786403059959412, "model_output": 0.6786, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4832 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1165 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0875 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0687 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0671 } ], "others": 0.0153, "total": 0.6786, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.483186 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.116491 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.087538 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.068729 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.06708 } ], "others_margin": 0.015332 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.927235126495361, "model_output": 6.9272, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0987 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0761 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0735 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0294 } ], "others": 0.0306, "total": 6.9272, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.098683 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.076145 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073476 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.031318 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.029387 } ], "others_margin": 0.030579 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0138, quality 0.569)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9022, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "assists": 0.1596, "assist_rate": 0.1596, "expected_goals": 0.0581, "goals": 0.0963, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "shots_on_target": 0.2724, "total_shots": 0.688, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 36.579, "accurate_pass": 31.5922, "duels_won": 2.1098, "total_long_balls": 3.5894, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6578, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9736, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.9598, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6054, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6324, "crosses_total": 5.2334, "crosses_accurate": 2.6578, "touches": 55.622, "possession_lost": 15.3714, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 3.6716, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4658, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.644, "won_contest": 0.548, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.4796, "fouls_drawn": 1.5618, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.548, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1707, "shots_off_target": 0.4156 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14100000, "quality_factor": 0.5693, "boost_factor": 1.0138, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0681, "expected_assists": 0.0844, "assists": 0.189, "assist_rate": 0.189, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goals": 0.114, "goal_rate": 0.114, "shots_on_target": 0.3225, "total_shots": 0.8145, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.49, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1839, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0681, "expected_assists": 0.0844, "assists": 0.189, "assist_rate": 0.189, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goals": 0.114, "goal_rate": 0.114, "shots_on_target": 0.3225, "total_shots": 0.8145, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0681, "expected_assists": 0.0844, "assist_rate": 0.189, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.114, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3225, "total_shots": 0.8145, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.3489, xG scale 1.2292, xA scale 1.2838, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0681, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.189, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.114, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3225, "total_shots": 0.8145, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1297, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.658, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3489, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8394, "team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0688, "after": 0.0441 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0844, "after": 0.0566 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0681, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.189, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.114, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3225, "total_shots": 0.8145, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1297, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1077, "fifa_rank": 774.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0681, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.189, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.114, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3225, "total_shots": 0.8145, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.492154 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.162467 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.025528 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.024961 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.01837 } ], "others_margin": 0.026526 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.750988960266113, "model_output": 6.751, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0569 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0244, "total": 6.751, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.028373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.0254 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011022 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009673 } ], "others_margin": -0.024476 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.515, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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946381, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 190, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2788, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0673 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0189, "total": 6.6822, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067312 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.020429 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008969 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008421 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008119 } ], "others_margin": -0.018955 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1373, "goals": 0.1443, "goal_rate": 0.1443, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.0518, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.3371, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 24.99, "total_pass": 6.7352, "accurate_pass": 3.5376, "duels_won": 1.8189, "total_long_balls": 0.3137, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0562, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7288, "crosses_total": 0.2304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.2001, "possession_lost": 5.1875, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.8832, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2741, "won_contest": 0.1798, "ball_recovery": 0.7155, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1109, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0801, "tackles": 0.0801, "clearances": 0.5933, "blocks": 0.1109, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3764, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.4534, "total_progression": 10.0699, "progressive_carries": 0.7362, "shots_off_target": 0.6571 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.0 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1419, "goals": 0.1492, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.84, "projection_minutes": 24.99, "minutes_scale": 1.0339, "appearance_probability": 0.583 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1419, "goals": 0.1492, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1419, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.3489, xG scale 1.2292, xA scale 1.2838, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2788, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.038, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.658, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3489, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8394, "team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.583 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1419, "after": 0.1017 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0238, "after": 0.0178 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2788, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.038, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3563, "fifa_rank": 2356.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2788, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0933, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.038, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0933, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "scorer_weight": 0.1056, "squad_weight_total": 1.6973, "weight_share": 0.0622, "finishing_factor": 1.038, "appearance_weight": 0.583, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Stassin", "weight": 0.3099, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3099, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3037 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3037, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3037, "runner_up": "Isaac Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2781 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2788, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0933, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0175, "finishing_factor": 1.038, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0175, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0142, "squad_weight_total": 1.029, "weight_share": 0.0138, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.583, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.1798, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1798, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1711 } ] } } ] }, "Rubén Vargas": { "player_id": 872919, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 179, "market_value": 13900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0886, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0522, "finishing_factor": 1.0848, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421085, "match_date": "2026-10-26", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.111, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421075, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0308, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0792, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 54, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0954, "expected_assists": 0.133, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083644, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0288, "expected_assists": 0.1584, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083587, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1857, "expected_assists": 0.095, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083526, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2839, "expected_assists": 0.0741, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083231, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0433, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083265, "match_date": "2026-04-23", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0933, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1980, "combined_rank_score": 765.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1238.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7745, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rubén Vargas", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Damien Da Silva", "ranking": 1975 }, { "player_name": "Joe Rodon", "ranking": 1976 }, { "player_name": "Senny Mayulu", "ranking": 1977 }, { "player_name": "Gerard Gumbau", "ranking": 1978 }, { "player_name": "Malik Tillman", "ranking": 1979 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Norman Rodríguez", "ranking": 1981 }, { "player_name": "Elzio Lohan Alves Lucio", "ranking": 1982 }, { "player_name": "Byong-oh Kim", "ranking": 1983 }, { "player_name": "Irakli Bughridze", "ranking": 1984 }, { "player_name": "Axel Alfonzo", "ranking": 1985 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 27, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.729, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0029, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sevilla", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 21.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (27 historical appearances) to 23.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.73); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 21.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0641, "goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.2182, "total_shots": 0.7205, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "key_pass": 0.5801, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.13, "total_pass": 14.1778, "accurate_pass": 11.6314, "duels_won": 1.5697, "total_long_balls": 0.905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4956, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2402, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1533, "crosses_total": 1.2088, "crosses_accurate": 0.8694, "touches": 20.7115, "possession_lost": 4.2967, "dispossessed": 0.3219, "duels_lost": 1.0632, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7003, "won_contest": 0.2548, "ball_recovery": 2.6987, "challenges_lost": 0.1479, "fouls": 0.1479, 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"opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0933, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 54.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0793, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0674, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0573, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0487, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0414, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-23", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0352, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 9.8758, "expectedGoals": 0.0828, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 13.3861, "accuratePass": 15.0557, "totalShots": 1.37 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06413820385932922, "model_output": 0.0641, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.282 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0323 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0236 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0797 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0169, "total": 0.0641, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.637486, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.527375 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.137861 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.541068 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.12732 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.080005 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.060301 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.046169 } ], "others_margin": -0.13574 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2182290107011795, "model_output": 0.2182, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2115 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.066 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0499 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0473 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5305, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2188 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0303, "total": 0.2182, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.633985, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.53181 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.069569 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.062759 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.054544 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.040027 } ], "others_margin": -0.129517 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7204962372779846, "model_output": 0.7205, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2934 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0662 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.051 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0491 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0248 } ], "others": -0.062, "total": 0.7205, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.38048, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.499698 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.050988 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.049141 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.026641 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.02485 } ], "others_margin": -0.061948 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05762350931763649, "model_output": 0.0576, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1135 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0552 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0647, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0053 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": 0.0029, "total": 0.0576, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.356438 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.126637 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.097267 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.094033 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.057595 } ], "others_margin": 0.053422 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5801464915275574, "model_output": 0.5801, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0219 } ], "others": 0.0216, "total": 0.5801, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.447367 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.100156 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.047238 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.043066 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.039987 } ], "others_margin": 0.037896 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.774470329284668, "model_output": 6.7745, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0656 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": 0.0035, "total": 6.7745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065603 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019981 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016556 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015121 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011351 } ], "others_margin": 0.003562 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0029, quality 0.567)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goals": 0.0741, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7227, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "key_pass": 0.5818, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.13, "total_pass": 14.2189, "accurate_pass": 11.6651, "duels_won": 1.5743, "total_long_balls": 0.9076, "accurate_long_balls": 0.497, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2641, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1711, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.8719, "touches": 20.7716, "possession_lost": 4.3092, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0663, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7023, "won_contest": 0.2555, "ball_recovery": 2.7065, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.416, "tackles": 0.97, "clearances": 0.2053, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0988, "offsides": 0.1483, "ball_carries": 4.8562, "total_progression": 24.2399, "progressive_carries": 1.5709, "shots_off_target": 0.5038 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13900000, "quality_factor": 0.5671, "boost_factor": 1.0029, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0014)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.074, "shots_on_target": 0.2186, "total_shots": 0.7232, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "key_pass": 0.5818, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.13, "total_pass": 14.2189, "accurate_pass": 11.6651, "duels_won": 1.5743, "total_long_balls": 0.9076, "accurate_long_balls": 0.497, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2641, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1711, "crosses_total": 1.2107, "crosses_accurate": 0.8719, "touches": 20.7716, "possession_lost": 4.3092, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0663, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7023, "won_contest": 0.2555, "ball_recovery": 2.7065, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1481, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2963, "tackles_won": 0.4154, "tackles": 0.97, "clearances": 0.2053, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0988, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8562, "total_progression": 24.2399, "progressive_carries": 1.5709, "shots_off_target": 0.5038 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0014, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.257, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 23.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goals": 0.0741, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0579, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0989, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.16, "projection_minutes": 23.13, "minutes_scale": 1.0013, "appearance_probability": 0.729 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goals": 0.0741, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0579, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0989, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0579, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0989, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.3489, xG scale 1.2292, xA scale 1.2838, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0886, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0848, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.658, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3489, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8394, "team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.729 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0644, "after": 0.0577 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0886, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0848, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1980, "fifa_rank": 1238.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0886, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0848, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "scorer_weight": 0.0626, "squad_weight_total": 1.6973, "weight_share": 0.0369, "finishing_factor": 1.0848, "appearance_weight": 0.729, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Stassin", "weight": 0.3099, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3099, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3037 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3037, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3037, "runner_up": "Isaac Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2781 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0886, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0522, "finishing_factor": 1.0848, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0522, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0434, "squad_weight_total": 1.029, "weight_share": 0.0421, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.729, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.1798, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1798, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1711 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Rubén Vargas": { "player_id": 872919, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 179, "market_value": 13900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7745, 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"importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0656 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": 0.0035, "total": 6.7745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065603 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019981 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016556 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015121 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011351 } ], "others_margin": 0.003562 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0029, quality 0.567)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goals": 0.0741, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7227, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "key_pass": 0.5818, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.13, "total_pass": 14.2189, "accurate_pass": 11.6651, "duels_won": 1.5743, "total_long_balls": 0.9076, "accurate_long_balls": 0.497, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2641, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1711, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.8719, "touches": 20.7716, "possession_lost": 4.3092, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0663, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7023, "won_contest": 0.2555, "ball_recovery": 2.7065, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.416, "tackles": 0.97, "clearances": 0.2053, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0988, "offsides": 0.1483, "ball_carries": 4.8562, "total_progression": 24.2399, "progressive_carries": 1.5709, "shots_off_target": 0.5038 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13900000, "quality_factor": 0.5671, "boost_factor": 1.0029, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0014)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.074, "shots_on_target": 0.2186, "total_shots": 0.7232, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "key_pass": 0.5818, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.13, "total_pass": 14.2189, "accurate_pass": 11.6651, "duels_won": 1.5743, "total_long_balls": 0.9076, "accurate_long_balls": 0.497, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2641, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1711, "crosses_total": 1.2107, "crosses_accurate": 0.8719, "touches": 20.7716, "possession_lost": 4.3092, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0663, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7023, "won_contest": 0.2555, "ball_recovery": 2.7065, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1481, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2963, "tackles_won": 0.4154, "tackles": 0.97, "clearances": 0.2053, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0988, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8562, "total_progression": 24.2399, "progressive_carries": 1.5709, "shots_off_target": 0.5038 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0014, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.257, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 23.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goals": 0.0741, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0579, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0989, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.16, "projection_minutes": 23.13, "minutes_scale": 1.0013, "appearance_probability": 0.729 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goals": 0.0741, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0579, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0989, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0579, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0989, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.3489, xG scale 1.2292, xA scale 1.2838, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0886, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0848, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.658, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3489, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8394, "team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.729 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0644, "after": 0.0577 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0886, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0848, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1980, "fifa_rank": 1238.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0886, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0848, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "scorer_weight": 0.0626, "squad_weight_total": 1.6973, "weight_share": 0.0369, "finishing_factor": 1.0848, "appearance_weight": 0.729, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Stassin", "weight": 0.3099, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3099, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3037 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3037, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3037, "runner_up": "Isaac Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2781 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0741, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2189, "total_shots": 0.7241, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5826, "rating": 6.7745, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 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"margin": -0.101157 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.081645 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.063716 } ], "others_margin": -0.250216 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.33614611625671387, "model_output": 0.3361, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.246 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0168 } ], "others": -0.0211, "total": 0.3361, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.437716 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.081635 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050265 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.04849 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045943 } ], "others_margin": -0.060709 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.682157039642334, "model_output": 6.6822, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0673 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0189, "total": 6.6822, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067312 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.020429 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008969 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008421 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008119 } ], "others_margin": -0.018955 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1373, "goals": 0.1443, "goal_rate": 0.1443, "shots_on_target": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1.0518, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.3371, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 24.99, "total_pass": 6.7352, "accurate_pass": 3.5376, "duels_won": 1.8189, "total_long_balls": 0.3137, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0562, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7288, "crosses_total": 0.2304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.2001, "possession_lost": 5.1875, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.8832, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2741, "won_contest": 0.1798, "ball_recovery": 0.7155, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1109, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0801, "tackles": 0.0801, "clearances": 0.5933, "blocks": 0.1109, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3764, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.4534, "total_progression": 10.0699, "progressive_carries": 0.7362, "shots_off_target": 0.6571 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.0 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1419, "goals": 0.1492, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.84, "projection_minutes": 24.99, "minutes_scale": 1.0339, "appearance_probability": 0.583 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1419, "goals": 0.1492, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1419, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.3489, xG scale 1.2292, xA scale 1.2838, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2788, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.038, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.658, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3489, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8394, "team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.583 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1419, "after": 0.1017 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0238, "after": 0.0178 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2788, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.038, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3563, "fifa_rank": 2356.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2788, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0933, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.038, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0933, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "scorer_weight": 0.1056, "squad_weight_total": 1.6973, "weight_share": 0.0622, "finishing_factor": 1.038, "appearance_weight": 0.583, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Stassin", "weight": 0.3099, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3099, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3037 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3037, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3037, "runner_up": "Isaac Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2781 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "key_pass": 0.3485, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 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0.0933, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0175, "finishing_factor": 1.038, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0175, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0142, "squad_weight_total": 1.029, "weight_share": 0.0138, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.583, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.1798, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1798, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1711 } ] } } ] }, "Dodi Lukebakio": { "player_id": 823631, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 14100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.189, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.114, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 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6.9272, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0987 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0761 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0735 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0294 } ], "others": 0.0306, "total": 6.9272, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.098683 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.076145 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073476 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.031318 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.029387 } ], "others_margin": 0.030579 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0138, quality 0.569)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9022, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "assists": 0.1596, "assist_rate": 0.1596, "expected_goals": 0.0581, "goals": 0.0963, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "shots_on_target": 0.2724, "total_shots": 0.688, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 36.579, "accurate_pass": 31.5922, "duels_won": 2.1098, "total_long_balls": 3.5894, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6578, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9736, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.9598, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6054, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6324, "crosses_total": 5.2334, "crosses_accurate": 2.6578, "touches": 55.622, "possession_lost": 15.3714, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 3.6716, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4658, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.644, "won_contest": 0.548, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.4796, "fouls_drawn": 1.5618, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.548, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1707, "shots_off_target": 0.4156 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14100000, "quality_factor": 0.5693, "boost_factor": 1.0138, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0681, "expected_assists": 0.0844, "assists": 0.189, "assist_rate": 0.189, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goals": 0.114, "goal_rate": 0.114, "shots_on_target": 0.3225, "total_shots": 0.8145, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.49, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1839, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0681, "expected_assists": 0.0844, "assists": 0.189, "assist_rate": 0.189, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goals": 0.114, "goal_rate": 0.114, "shots_on_target": 0.3225, "total_shots": 0.8145, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0681, "expected_assists": 0.0844, "assist_rate": 0.189, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goal_rate": 0.114, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3225, "total_shots": 0.8145, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.3489, xG scale 1.2292, xA scale 1.2838, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0681, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.189, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.114, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3225, "total_shots": 0.8145, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1297, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.658, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3489, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8394, "team_expected_assists": 1.0777, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2292, "xa_scale": 1.2838, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0688, "after": 0.0441 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0844, "after": 0.0566 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0681, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.189, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.114, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3225, "total_shots": 0.8145, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1297, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1077, "fifa_rank": 774.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0681, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.189, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.114, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3225, "total_shots": 0.8145, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1297, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.114, "scorer_weight": 0.0551, "squad_weight_total": 1.6973, "weight_share": 0.0325, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Stassin", "weight": 0.3099, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3099, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3037 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3037, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3037, "runner_up": "Isaac Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2781 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0681, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.189, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.114, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3225, "total_shots": 0.8145, "rating": 6.9272, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1297, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0423, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0536, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0536, "assist_rate": 0.189, "provider_weight": 0.0707, "squad_weight_total": 1.029, "weight_share": 0.0688, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.1798, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1798, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1711 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.66, "expected_assists": 1.08, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 396, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.82, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Dani Carvajal", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3400000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.442, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Suazo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.494, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.348, "xg_contribution": 0.0199, "xg_multiplier": 0.9229, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.652 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Carvajal (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Suazo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.020 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Orel Mangala", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.338, "xg_contribution": 0.0385, "xg_multiplier": 0.8799, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CM", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.662 } ], "duel_analysis": "Orel Mangala (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Francho Serrano", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "xg_contribution": 0.0472, "xg_multiplier": 0.8249, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CM", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699 } ], "duel_analysis": "Francho Serrano (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Enes Ünal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "Andrés Castrin", "Kike Salas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.545, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2069, "xg_multiplier": 0.9191, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés Castrin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Kike Salas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enes Ünal (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Andrés Castrin and Kike Salas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.207 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Martín Satriano", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Andrés Castrin", "Kike Salas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.545, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2029, "xg_multiplier": 0.9608, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés Castrin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Kike Salas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martín Satriano (ST) is evenly matched against Andrés Castrin and Kike Salas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.203 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ramón Terrats", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.31, "xg_contribution": 0.1237, "xg_multiplier": 0.8376, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CM", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.69 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramón Terrats (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.124 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Youssouf Fofana", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 16300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.593, "defenders": [ "Davinchi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "xg_contribution": 0.1511, "xg_multiplier": 1.1332, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Davinchi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.489 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youssouf Fofana (LM) is slightly favored against Davinchi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.13 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.151 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Lucien Agoumé", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 18500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.616, "defenders": [ "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.532, "xg_contribution": 0.0535, "xg_multiplier": 1.1199, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nemanja Gudelj", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.468 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucien Agoumé (CM) is slightly favored against Nemanja Gudelj in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€18M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Stassin", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 15700000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.587, "defenders": [ "Davinchi", "Djené" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.283, "xg_contribution": 0.252, "xg_multiplier": 1.1223, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Davinchi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.717 }, { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.717 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Stassin (ST) is slightly favored against Davinchi and Djené in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.252 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Félix Correia", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Davinchi", "Djené" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "xg_contribution": 0.2607, "xg_multiplier": 1.0422, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Davinchi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.771 }, { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.771 } ], "duel_analysis": "Félix Correia (ST) is evenly matched against Davinchi and Djené in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.261 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Chidera Ejuke", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.446, "defenders": [ "Davinchi", "Djené" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.188, "xg_contribution": 0.0898, "xg_multiplier": 0.9822, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Davinchi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.812 }, { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.812 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chidera Ejuke (ST) is evenly matched against Davinchi and Djené in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Isaac Romero", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Davinchi", "Djené" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "xg_contribution": 0.2172, "xg_multiplier": 1.0415, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Davinchi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.772 }, { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.772 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isaac Romero (ST) is evenly matched against Davinchi and Djené in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.217 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.48, "away_midfield_power": 0.58, "home_creative_power": 0.373, "away_creative_power": 0.504, "home_defensive_power": 0.425, "away_defensive_power": 0.606, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.453, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 2, "home_midfield_players": [ "Orel Mangala", "Ramón Terrats", "Francho Serrano", "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Youssouf Fofana" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Orel Mangala vs Lucien Agoumé", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.973, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.016 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.326, "away_lambda": 1.658, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Dani Carvajal": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Suazo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Orel Mangala": { "opponents": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Youssouf Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Francho Serrano": { "opponents": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enes Ünal": { "opponents": [ "Andrés Castrin", "Kike Salas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Martín Satriano": { "opponents": [ "Andrés Castrin", "Kike Salas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ramón Terrats": { "opponents": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Youssouf Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Davinchi": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Lucas Stassin", "Félix Correia", "Chidera Ejuke", "Isaac Romero" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nemanja Gudelj": { "opponents": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Djené": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Stassin", "Félix Correia", "Chidera Ejuke", "Isaac Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "David Soria": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Stassin", "Félix Correia" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Andrés García": { "opponents": [ "Isaac Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Gabriel Suazo": { "opponents": [ "Dani Carvajal" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lucien Agoumé": { "opponents": [ "Orel Mangala", "Francho Serrano", "Ramón Terrats", "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrés Castrin": { "opponents": [ "Enes Ünal", "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kike Salas": { "opponents": [ "Enes Ünal", "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Youssouf Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Davinchi", "Orel Mangala", "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Stassin": { "opponents": [ "Davinchi", "Djené" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Félix Correia": { "opponents": [ "Davinchi", "Djené" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Chidera Ejuke": { "opponents": [ "Davinchi", "Djené" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Isaac Romero": { "opponents": [ "Davinchi", "Djené" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Juan Iglesias": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Orel Mangala vs Lucien Agoumé will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 1.02. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0096, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.031, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.052, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9752, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0061, "home_midfield_factor": 0.973, "away_midfield_factor": 1.016, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4647, "away_avg_quality": 0.5282, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0635, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.6897, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.5995, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.582, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1428, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0786, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0457, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6391, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8168 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.973, "result": 0.7948 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7948 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.0664 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8732, "result": 0.9312 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0096, "result": 0.9402 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9752, "result": 0.9168 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.031, "result": 0.9478 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9478, "result": 0.9478, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1428, "factor": 0.9543, "pre": 0.9478, "result": 0.9045 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9045 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.125 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.4938, "result": 0.9811 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.9811, "result": 0.981, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 0.952 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 0.952, "result": 0.9316, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.932 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.932 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.932, "result": 0.932, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.252, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.326 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0243, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1057 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.016, "result": 1.1234 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1234 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1234 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0188, "result": 1.1445 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.1567 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0061, "result": 1.1637 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.052, "result": 1.2157 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2157, "result": 1.2157, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1428, "factor": 1.0786, "pre": 1.2157, "result": 1.3112 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3112 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.531 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.4889, "result": 1.2934 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2934, "result": 1.293, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.422 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 1.422, "result": 1.4524, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.452 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.452 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.452, "result": 1.452, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.252, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.658 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Getafe", "away_squad": "Sevilla", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.494, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.489, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.932, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.452, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9811, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2934, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.252, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.326, "final_away_lambda": 1.658 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8732, "attack_index": 0.697, "defense_concede_index": 1.032, "form_multiplier": 0.972, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.04, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.54, "team_ppg": 1.07, "opponent_ppg": 1.57 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0188, "attack_index": 1.032, "defense_concede_index": 1.002, "form_multiplier": 1.028, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.54, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 1.57, "opponent_ppg": 1.07 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Getafe vs Sevilla. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 5-3-2 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 0.981, Away 1.293). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.326, Away 1.658 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 6, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Getafe", "away_squad": "Sevilla", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.494, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.489, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.326, "away_lambda": 1.658, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.981, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.293 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.252, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-31T13:34:22Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }