{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Valencia", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261101", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1006, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1006, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0764, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Elche", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2541, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1206 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1006 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0924 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0785 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0764 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0668, "0-1": 0.0764, "0-2": 0.0455, "0-3": 0.0178, "0-4": 0.0052, "0-5": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.1006, "1-1": 0.1206, "1-2": 0.0703, "1-3": 0.0276, "1-4": 0.0081, "1-5": 0.0019, "2-0": 0.0785, "2-1": 0.0924, "2-2": 0.0543, "2-3": 0.0213, "2-4": 0.0063, "2-5": 0.0015, "3-0": 0.0405, "3-1": 0.0476, "3-2": 0.028, "3-3": 0.011, "3-4": 0.0032, "3-5": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0156, "4-1": 0.0184, "4-2": 0.0108, "4-3": 0.0042, "4-4": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0048, "5-1": 0.0057, "5-2": 0.0033, "5-3": 0.0013, "6-0": 0.0012, "6-1": 0.0015, "6-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4572, "draw": 0.2541, "away_win": 0.2887 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5115, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4885, "btts_yes": 0.545, "btts_no": 0.455, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3085, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2133 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.89, "ATR": 6.88, "GK": 7.26 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.93, "ATR": 6.87, "GK": 6.93 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Elche vs Valencia. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Elche 2W-2D-6L vs Valencia over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Fernando Niño", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Federico Redondo vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.545, "away_lambda": 1.176, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 6, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 0.9714, "away_multiplier": 1.0286 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1206, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4572, "draw": 0.2541, "away_win": 0.2887 }, "favorite": "Elche", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4572, "fair_spread": 0.369, "fair_total": 2.721, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.545, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.176, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5115, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.545, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3085, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2133, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Fernando Niño (Elche)", "estimate": 0.5446, "probability": 0.4199, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Javier Guerra (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.24, "probability": 0.2134, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Roy Revivo (Elche)", "estimate": 0.1926, "probability": 0.1752, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Javier Guerra (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.171, "probability": 0.1572, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.721, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 816, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.8, "possession_home_pct": 48.5, "possession_away_pct": 51.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Elche", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4572, "script": "Elche is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.37 goals and fair total 2.72.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Valencia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Elche lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Elche chance creation leans on Fernando Niño against Arnau Martínez, César Tárrega in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Elche: starters carry the main goal usage through Fernando Niño; bench watchlist: Facundo Buonanotte, Rafa Mir.", "Valencia: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Harvey Elliott, Hugo Duro, Diego López.", "Assist usage should flow through Roy Revivo; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Elche tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.36 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Valencia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Elche.", "Valencia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Elche": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Buba Sangaré": { "player_id": 1542721, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 184, "market_value": 4900000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6573, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 8.0819, "dispossessed": 0.2642, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0657, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0057, "expected_assists": 0.0217, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0141, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Arnaut Danjuma", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0057, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0215, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421084.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421076.0, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416299.0, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 37, 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"season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416322.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 4.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421050.0, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 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"ranking": 5657 }, { "player_name": "Dimitar Mitov", "ranking": 5658 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Dávila", "ranking": 5659 }, { "player_name": "Ulrik Saltnes", "ranking": 5660 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.779, "history_matches": 21, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", 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6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0467 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0258, "total": 6.6573, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.046745 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.023583 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017496 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01714 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010788 } ], "others_margin": -0.025709 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.461)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.712, "tackles": 1.6816, "tackles_won": 1.0755, "clearances": 2.7376, "aerial_won": 0.6839, "total_shots": 0.3848, "rating": 6.6573, "minutes": 76.65, "total_pass": 22.8355, "accurate_pass": 18.563, "duels_won": 3.7764, "total_long_balls": 1.4291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4065, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9118, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0948, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9236, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4683, "crosses_total": 0.9708, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 40.8235, "possession_lost": 8.0819, "dispossessed": 0.2642, "duels_lost": 2.6388, "aerial_lost": 0.3604, "total_contest": 1.418, "won_contest": 0.6536, "ball_recovery": 1.5684, "challenges_lost": 0.2137, "fouls": 1.2586, "fouls_drawn": 0.7143, "blocks": 0.4034, "goals": 0.0602, 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"totalShots", "predicted": 0.5439793467521667, "model_output": 0.544, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2568 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1154 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0632 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0495 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.032 } ], "others": -0.2188, "total": 0.544, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.256764 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115443 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063215 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 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"accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0479 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": 0.0037, "total": 6.8978, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.047873 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.03059 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015035 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013815 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.012011 } ], "others_margin": 0.003678 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1844, "tackles": 1.6377, "tackles_won": 1.0456, "clearances": 4.9097, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.5615, "rating": 6.8978, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 63.0397, "accurate_pass": 56.0167, "duels_won": 3.3813, "total_long_balls": 8.6196, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6939, "total_own_half_passes": 39.9003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5072, "crosses_total": 0.9215, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 76.8965, "possession_lost": 9.1932, "dispossessed": 0.1088, "duels_lost": 2.7314, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.2287, "won_contest": 0.115, "ball_recovery": 3.4275, "challenges_lost": 0.8097, "fouls": 0.7603, "fouls_drawn": 0.1664, "blocks": 0.6277, "goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.0335, "assists": 0.0568, "assist_rate": 0.0568, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "shots_on_target": 0.1046, "big_chances_created": 0.0351, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 24.1511, "total_progression": 68.1454, "progressive_carries": 0.5393, "key_pass": 0.2737, "shots_off_target": 0.4569 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0141)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1864, "tackles": 1.6377, "tackles_won": 1.0496, "clearances": 4.9097, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.5582, "rating": 6.8978, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 63.0397, "accurate_pass": 56.0167, "duels_won": 3.3813, "total_long_balls": 8.6196, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6939, "total_own_half_passes": 39.9003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5072, "crosses_total": 0.9366, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 76.8965, "possession_lost": 9.1932, "dispossessed": 0.1088, "duels_lost": 2.7314, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.2287, "won_contest": 0.115, "ball_recovery": 3.4275, "challenges_lost": 0.8097, "fouls": 0.7589, "fouls_drawn": 0.164, "blocks": 0.6277, "goals": 0.033, "goal_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0.056, "assist_rate": 0.056, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "shots_on_target": 0.1031, "big_chances_created": 0.0351, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 24.1511, "total_progression": 68.1454, "progressive_carries": 0.5393, "key_pass": 0.2737, "shots_off_target": 0.4569 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0141, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9958, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9215, "after": 0.9366 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1864, "tackles": 1.6377, "tackles_won": 1.0496, "clearances": 4.9097, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.56, "rating": 6.8978, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 63.0397, "accurate_pass": 56.0167, "duels_won": 3.3813, "total_long_balls": 8.6196, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6939, "total_own_half_passes": 39.9003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5072, "crosses_total": 0.9366, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 76.8965, "possession_lost": 9.1932, "dispossessed": 0.1088, "duels_lost": 2.7314, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.2287, "won_contest": 0.115, "ball_recovery": 3.4275, "challenges_lost": 0.8097, "fouls": 0.7589, "fouls_drawn": 0.164, "blocks": 0.6277, "goals": 0.033, "goal_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0.056, "assist_rate": 0.056, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "shots_on_target": 0.1031, "big_chances_created": 0.0351, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 24.1511, "total_progression": 68.1454, "progressive_carries": 0.5393, "key_pass": 0.2737, "shots_off_target": 0.4569 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1864, "tackles": 1.6377, "tackles_won": 1.0496, "clearances": 4.9097, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.56, "rating": 6.8978, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 63.0397, "accurate_pass": 56.0167, "duels_won": 3.3813, "total_long_balls": 8.6196, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6939, "total_own_half_passes": 39.9003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5072, "crosses_total": 0.9366, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 76.8965, "possession_lost": 9.1932, "dispossessed": 0.1088, "duels_lost": 2.7314, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.2287, "won_contest": 0.115, "ball_recovery": 3.4275, "challenges_lost": 0.8097, "fouls": 0.7589, "fouls_drawn": 0.164, "blocks": 0.6277, "goals": 0.033, "goal_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0.056, "assist_rate": 0.056, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "shots_on_target": 0.1031, "big_chances_created": 0.0351, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 24.1511, "total_progression": 68.1454, "progressive_carries": 0.5393, "key_pass": 0.2737, "shots_off_target": 0.4569, "opponent_faced": "Luis Rioja", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Luis Rioja", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1864, "tackles": 1.6377, "tackles_won": 1.0496, "clearances": 4.9097, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.56, "rating": 6.8978, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 63.0397, "accurate_pass": 56.0167, "duels_won": 3.3813, "total_long_balls": 8.6196, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6939, "total_own_half_passes": 39.9003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5072, "crosses_total": 0.9366, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 76.8965, "possession_lost": 9.1932, "dispossessed": 0.1088, "duels_lost": 2.7314, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.2287, "won_contest": 0.115, "ball_recovery": 3.4275, "challenges_lost": 0.8097, "fouls": 0.7589, "fouls_drawn": 0.164, "blocks": 0.6277, "goal_rate": 0.033, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.056, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "shots_on_target": 0.1031, "big_chances_created": 0.0351, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 24.1511, "total_progression": 68.1454, "progressive_carries": 0.5393, "key_pass": 0.2737, "shots_off_target": 0.4569, "opponent_faced": "Luis Rioja", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.54 (squad xG sum 0.9978, xG scale 1.5484, xA scale 1.5484, team xA 1.15 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1864, "tackles": 1.6377, "tackles_won": 1.0496, "clearances": 4.9097, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.56, "rating": 6.8978, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 63.0397, "accurate_pass": 56.0167, "duels_won": 3.3813, "total_long_balls": 8.6196, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6939, "total_own_half_passes": 39.9003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5072, "crosses_total": 0.9366, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 76.8965, "possession_lost": 9.1932, "dispossessed": 0.1088, "duels_lost": 2.7314, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.2287, "won_contest": 0.115, "ball_recovery": 3.4275, "challenges_lost": 0.8097, "fouls": 0.7589, "fouls_drawn": 0.164, "blocks": 0.6277, "goal_rate": 0.033, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.056, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0505, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "shots_on_target": 0.1031, "big_chances_created": 0.0351, "xgot": 0.0257, "ball_carries": 24.1511, "total_progression": 68.1454, "progressive_carries": 0.5393, "key_pass": 0.2737, "shots_off_target": 0.4569, "opponent_faced": "Luis Rioja", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0048, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.545, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9978, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7401, "team_expected_assists": 1.1459, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7417, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5484, "xa_scale": 1.5484, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0326, "after": 0.0505 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0306, "after": 0.0474 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1864, "tackles": 1.6377, "tackles_won": 1.0496, "clearances": 4.9097, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.56, "rating": 6.8978, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 63.0397, "accurate_pass": 56.0167, "duels_won": 3.3813, "total_long_balls": 8.6196, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6939, "total_own_half_passes": 39.9003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5072, "crosses_total": 0.9366, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 76.8965, "possession_lost": 9.1932, "dispossessed": 0.1088, "duels_lost": 2.7314, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.2287, "won_contest": 0.115, "ball_recovery": 3.4275, "challenges_lost": 0.8097, "fouls": 0.7589, "fouls_drawn": 0.164, "blocks": 0.6277, "goal_rate": 0.033, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.056, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0505, "expected_assists": 0.0474, 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24.1511, "total_progression": 68.1454, "progressive_carries": 0.5393, "key_pass": 0.2737, "shots_off_target": 0.4569, "opponent_faced": "Luis Rioja", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0492, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0048, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0492, "goal_rate": 0.033, "scorer_weight": 0.0507, "squad_weight_total": 1.72, "weight_share": 0.0295, "finishing_factor": 1.0048, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.5896, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5896, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2381 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1864, "tackles": 1.6377, "tackles_won": 1.0496, "clearances": 4.9097, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.56, "rating": 6.8978, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 63.0397, "accurate_pass": 56.0167, "duels_won": 3.3813, "total_long_balls": 8.6196, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6939, "total_own_half_passes": 39.9003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5072, "crosses_total": 0.9366, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 76.8965, "possession_lost": 9.1932, "dispossessed": 0.1088, "duels_lost": 2.7314, "aerial_lost": 0.9407, "total_contest": 0.2287, "won_contest": 0.115, "ball_recovery": 3.4275, "challenges_lost": 0.8097, "fouls": 0.7589, "fouls_drawn": 0.164, "blocks": 0.6277, "goal_rate": 0.033, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.056, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0505, "expected_assists": 0.0474, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061022 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022286 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.015498 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.01084 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.010793 } ], "others_margin": -0.015122 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.754542827606201, "model_output": 6.7545, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.011 } ], 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9940, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0344, "tackles": 1.2295, "tackles_won": 0.8203, "clearances": 2.6923, "aerial_won": 1.0396, "total_shots": 0.5831, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 33.3988, "accurate_pass": 28.6632, "duels_won": 3.5167, "total_long_balls": 2.4983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.554, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2479, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6161, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4154, "crosses_total": 1.1157, "crosses_accurate": 0.3643, "touches": 52.1855, "possession_lost": 10.1141, "dispossessed": 0.173, "duels_lost": 2.9829, "aerial_lost": 0.4522, "total_contest": 1.2234, "won_contest": 0.6076, "ball_recovery": 2.7077, "challenges_lost": 0.7513, "fouls": 0.9907, "fouls_drawn": 1.4821, "blocks": 0.9183, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.294, "assist_rate": 0.294, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.1244, "shots_on_target": 0.2394, "big_chances_created": 0.294, "xgot": 0.0317, "ball_carries": 12.2459, "total_progression": 68.7601, "progressive_carries": 1.9259, "key_pass": 0.8313, "shots_off_target": 0.3437 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.994, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0344, "tackles": 1.2295, "tackles_won": 0.8203, "clearances": 2.6923, "aerial_won": 1.0396, "total_shots": 0.5831, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 33.3988, "accurate_pass": 28.6632, "duels_won": 3.5167, "total_long_balls": 2.4983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.554, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2479, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6161, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4154, "crosses_total": 1.1157, "crosses_accurate": 0.3643, "touches": 52.1855, "possession_lost": 10.1141, "dispossessed": 0.173, "duels_lost": 2.9829, "aerial_lost": 0.4522, "total_contest": 1.2234, "won_contest": 0.6076, "ball_recovery": 2.7077, "challenges_lost": 0.7513, "fouls": 0.9907, "fouls_drawn": 1.4821, "blocks": 0.9183, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.294, "assist_rate": 0.294, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.1244, "shots_on_target": 0.2394, "big_chances_created": 0.294, "xgot": 0.0317, "ball_carries": 12.2459, "total_progression": 68.7601, "progressive_carries": 1.9259, "key_pass": 0.8313, "shots_off_target": 0.3437 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0344, "tackles": 1.2295, "tackles_won": 0.8203, "clearances": 2.6923, "aerial_won": 1.0396, "total_shots": 0.5831, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 33.3988, "accurate_pass": 28.6632, "duels_won": 3.5167, "total_long_balls": 2.4983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.554, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2479, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6161, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4154, "crosses_total": 1.1157, "crosses_accurate": 0.3643, "touches": 52.1855, "possession_lost": 10.1141, "dispossessed": 0.173, "duels_lost": 2.9829, "aerial_lost": 0.4522, "total_contest": 1.2234, "won_contest": 0.6076, "ball_recovery": 2.7077, "challenges_lost": 0.7513, "fouls": 0.9907, "fouls_drawn": 1.4821, "blocks": 0.9183, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.294, "assist_rate": 0.294, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.1244, "shots_on_target": 0.2394, "big_chances_created": 0.294, "xgot": 0.0317, "ball_carries": 12.2459, "total_progression": 68.7601, "progressive_carries": 1.9259, "key_pass": 0.8313, "shots_off_target": 0.3437, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Arnaut Danjuma", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Arnaut Danjuma", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0344, "tackles": 1.2295, "tackles_won": 0.8203, "clearances": 2.6923, "aerial_won": 1.0396, "total_shots": 0.5831, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 33.3988, "accurate_pass": 28.6632, "duels_won": 3.5167, "total_long_balls": 2.4983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.554, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2479, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6161, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4154, "crosses_total": 1.1157, "crosses_accurate": 0.3643, "touches": 52.1855, "possession_lost": 10.1141, "dispossessed": 0.173, "duels_lost": 2.9829, "aerial_lost": 0.4522, "total_contest": 1.2234, "won_contest": 0.6076, "ball_recovery": 2.7077, "challenges_lost": 0.7513, "fouls": 0.9907, "fouls_drawn": 1.4821, "blocks": 0.9183, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.294, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.1244, "shots_on_target": 0.2394, "big_chances_created": 0.294, "xgot": 0.0317, "ball_carries": 12.2459, "total_progression": 68.7601, "progressive_carries": 1.9259, "key_pass": 0.8313, "shots_off_target": 0.3437, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Arnaut Danjuma", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.54 (squad xG sum 0.9978, xG scale 1.5484, xA scale 1.5484, team xA 1.15 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0344, "tackles": 1.2295, "tackles_won": 0.8203, "clearances": 2.6923, "aerial_won": 1.0396, "total_shots": 0.5831, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 33.3988, "accurate_pass": 28.6632, "duels_won": 3.5167, "total_long_balls": 2.4983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.554, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2479, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6161, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4154, "crosses_total": 1.1157, "crosses_accurate": 0.3643, "touches": 52.1855, "possession_lost": 10.1141, "dispossessed": 0.173, "duels_lost": 2.9829, "aerial_lost": 0.4522, "total_contest": 1.2234, "won_contest": 0.6076, "ball_recovery": 2.7077, "challenges_lost": 0.7513, "fouls": 0.9907, "fouls_drawn": 1.4821, "blocks": 0.9183, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.294, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0308, "expected_assists": 0.1926, "shots_on_target": 0.2394, "big_chances_created": 0.294, "xgot": 0.0491, "ball_carries": 12.2459, "total_progression": 68.7601, "progressive_carries": 1.9259, "key_pass": 0.8313, "shots_off_target": 0.3437, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Arnaut Danjuma", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.545, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9978, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7401, "team_expected_assists": 1.1459, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7417, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5484, "xa_scale": 1.5484, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0199, "after": 0.0308 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1244, "after": 0.1926 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0344, "tackles": 1.2295, "tackles_won": 0.8203, "clearances": 2.6923, "aerial_won": 1.0396, "total_shots": 0.5831, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 33.3988, "accurate_pass": 28.6632, "duels_won": 3.5167, "total_long_balls": 2.4983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.554, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2479, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6161, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4154, "crosses_total": 1.1157, "crosses_accurate": 0.3643, "touches": 52.1855, "possession_lost": 10.1141, "dispossessed": 0.173, "duels_lost": 2.9829, "aerial_lost": 0.4522, "total_contest": 1.2234, "won_contest": 0.6076, "ball_recovery": 2.7077, "challenges_lost": 0.7513, "fouls": 0.9907, "fouls_drawn": 1.4821, "blocks": 0.9183, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.294, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0308, "expected_assists": 0.1926, 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"global_player_rank": 808, "fifa_rank": 673.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0344, "tackles": 1.2295, "tackles_won": 0.8203, "clearances": 2.6923, "aerial_won": 1.0396, "total_shots": 0.5831, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 33.3988, "accurate_pass": 28.6632, "duels_won": 3.5167, "total_long_balls": 2.4983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.554, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2479, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6161, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4154, "crosses_total": 1.1157, "crosses_accurate": 0.3643, "touches": 52.1855, "possession_lost": 10.1141, "dispossessed": 0.173, "duels_lost": 2.9829, "aerial_lost": 0.4522, "total_contest": 1.2234, "won_contest": 0.6076, "ball_recovery": 2.7077, "challenges_lost": 0.7513, "fouls": 0.9907, "fouls_drawn": 1.4821, "blocks": 0.9183, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.294, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0308, "expected_assists": 0.1926, "shots_on_target": 0.2394, "big_chances_created": 0.294, "xgot": 0.0491, "ball_carries": 12.2459, "total_progression": 68.7601, "progressive_carries": 1.9259, "key_pass": 0.8313, "shots_off_target": 0.3437, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Arnaut Danjuma", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0303, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0303, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0246, "squad_weight_total": 1.72, "weight_share": 0.0143, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.5896, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5896, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2381 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0344, "tackles": 1.2295, "tackles_won": 0.8203, "clearances": 2.6923, "aerial_won": 1.0396, "total_shots": 0.5831, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 33.3988, "accurate_pass": 28.6632, "duels_won": 3.5167, "total_long_balls": 2.4983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.554, 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"pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0303, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1752, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1752, "assist_rate": 0.294, "provider_weight": 0.2407, "squad_weight_total": 1.141, "weight_share": 0.211, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roy Revivo", "weight": 0.2407, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2407, "runner_up": "Thomas Lemar", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1604, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Fernando Niño" ] } ] } } ] }, "Gonzalo Villar": { "player_id": 914765, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9962, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0548, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "assists": 0.0976, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "expected_goals": 0.0763, "goals": 0.071, "goal_rate": 0.071, "shots_on_target": 0.2613, "total_shots": 0.8491, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 75.84, "total_pass": 39.2723, "accurate_pass": 34.3338, "duels_won": 4.717, "total_long_balls": 1.4475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7719, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7854, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5483, "crosses_total": 1.0878, "crosses_accurate": 0.3734, "touches": 51.4353, "possession_lost": 8.5811, "dispossessed": 1.5154, "duels_lost": 4.6853, "aerial_won": 0.6516, "aerial_lost": 0.6686, "interceptions": 0.5464, "tackles_won": 0.7583, "tackles": 1.6237, "clearances": 0.4641, "total_contest": 1.1128, "won_contest": 0.5818, "challenges_lost": 0.8036, "fouls": 1.3978, "fouls_drawn": 1.93, "blocks": 0.3186, "big_chances_created": 0.0861, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0938, "ball_carries": 14.3783, "total_progression": 33.0165, "progressive_carries": 1.0436, "shots_off_target": 0.5878 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9962, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0241)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0548, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "assists": 0.102, "assist_rate": 0.102, "expected_goals": 0.0763, "goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0693, "shots_on_target": 0.2753, "total_shots": 0.8556, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 75.84, "total_pass": 39.2723, "accurate_pass": 34.3338, "duels_won": 4.717, "total_long_balls": 1.4475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7719, 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"Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Guido Rodríguez", "opponent_faced": "Guido Rodríguez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Guido Rodríguez", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9663, "skill_edge": -0.0069, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4527, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Guido Rodríguez", "market_value": 3600000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4527 } ], "xg_override": 0.0737 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6516, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8631, "after": 0.834 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", 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"team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.54 (squad xG sum 0.9978, xG scale 1.5484, xA scale 1.5484, team xA 1.15 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0548, "expected_assists": 0.1407, "assist_rate": 0.102, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1141, "goal_rate": 0.067, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.266, "total_shots": 0.834, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 75.84, "total_pass": 39.2723, "accurate_pass": 34.3338, "duels_won": 4.717, "total_long_balls": 1.4475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7719, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7854, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5483, "crosses_total": 1.1225, "crosses_accurate": 0.3734, "touches": 51.4353, "possession_lost": 8.5811, "dispossessed": 1.5154, "duels_lost": 4.6853, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6686, "interceptions": 0.5468, "tackles_won": 0.7536, "tackles": 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"accurate_pass": 17, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4708, "combined_rank_score": 2795.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 568.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.81, "sofascore_appearances": 10.0, "fifa_rank": 5022.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8879, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucas Cepeda", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Aaron Zehnter", "ranking": 4703 }, { "player_name": "Patric", "ranking": 4704 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Lampe", "ranking": 4705 }, { "player_name": "Daniele Rugani", "ranking": 4706 }, { "player_name": "Sondre Fet", "ranking": 4707 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pierluigi Gollini", "ranking": 4709 }, { "player_name": "Lassana Coulibaly", "ranking": 4710 }, { "player_name": "Jesper Karlsson", "ranking": 4711 }, { "player_name": "Deyverson", "ranking": 4712 }, { "player_name": "Dany Mota", "ranking": 4713 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.759, "history_matches": 20, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", 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"contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0075 } ], "others": 0.0115, "total": 0.1089, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.208778 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.147745 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.133306 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.129315 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.080011 } ], "others_margin": 0.112366 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.5265188217163086, "model_output": 1.5265, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.213 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.158 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1052 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.1127 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0854 } ], "others": 0.1605, "total": 1.5265, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.268484 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.160936 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.094393 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.092137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.064531 } ], "others_margin": 0.111094 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.887936115264893, "model_output": 6.8879, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0634 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": 0.0072, "total": 6.8879, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063384 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024069 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.023276 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.022139 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018744 } ], "others_margin": 0.007272 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.117, "goals": 0.155, "goal_rate": 0.155, "shots_on_target": 0.7042, "total_shots": 1.6818, "expected_assists": 0.1085, "key_pass": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8879, "minutes": 76.12, "total_pass": 26.7023, "accurate_pass": 22.8202, "duels_won": 4.4373, "total_long_balls": 0.6594, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.2933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9308, "crosses_total": 1.8527, "crosses_accurate": 0.8022, "touches": 43.4494, "possession_lost": 8.8604, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.9136, "aerial_lost": 1.0718, "total_contest": 2.2166, "won_contest": 1.1064, "ball_recovery": 3.6434, "challenges_lost": 0.776, "fouls": 0.6266, "fouls_drawn": 2.0331, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.916, "tackles_won": 1.0198, "tackles": 1.2003, "clearances": 0.1869, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0459, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.0884, "total_progression": 76.5662, "progressive_carries": 2.5006, "shots_off_target": 0.9776 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9959, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0078)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.117, "goals": 0.1538, "goal_rate": 0.1538, "shots_on_target": 0.7136, "total_shots": 1.7058, "expected_assists": 0.1085, "key_pass": 1.5203, "rating": 6.8879, "minutes": 76.12, "total_pass": 26.7023, "accurate_pass": 22.8202, "duels_won": 4.4373, "total_long_balls": 0.6594, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.2933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9308, "crosses_total": 1.8822, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1084 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0415, "total": 7.1084, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.108354 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033605 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030654 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025264 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.011522 } ], "others_margin": 0.041575 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2858, "expected_assists": 0.1163, "assists": 0.0981, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "expected_goals": 0.0669, "goals": 0.0831, "goal_rate": 0.0831, "shots_on_target": 0.3028, "total_shots": 0.9443, "rating": 7.1084, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 34.7359, "accurate_pass": 31.0848, "duels_won": 4.5124, "total_long_balls": 2.9035, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9994, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0254, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3076, "crosses_total": 1.6637, "crosses_accurate": 0.5513, "touches": 46.7217, "possession_lost": 7.7305, "dispossessed": 1.2056, "duels_lost": 3.035, "aerial_won": 0.0199, "aerial_lost": 0.1088, "interceptions": 0.0816, "tackles_won": 1.013, "tackles": 2.0232, "clearances": 0.2352, "total_contest": 1.7147, "won_contest": 1.2283, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.7512, "fouls_drawn": 1.241, "blocks": 0.1743, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0264, "xgot": 0.1052, "ball_carries": 17.794, "total_progression": 56.2128, "progressive_carries": 1.3848, "shots_off_target": 0.6415 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2858, "expected_assists": 0.1163, "assists": 0.0981, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "expected_goals": 0.0669, "goals": 0.0831, "goal_rate": 0.0831, "shots_on_target": 0.3028, "total_shots": 0.9443, "rating": 7.1084, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 34.7359, "accurate_pass": 31.0848, "duels_won": 4.5124, "total_long_balls": 2.9035, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9994, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0254, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3076, "crosses_total": 1.6637, "crosses_accurate": 0.5513, "touches": 46.7217, "possession_lost": 7.7305, "dispossessed": 1.2056, "duels_lost": 3.035, "aerial_won": 0.0199, "aerial_lost": 0.1088, "interceptions": 0.0816, "tackles_won": 1.013, "tackles": 2.0232, "clearances": 0.2352, "total_contest": 1.7147, "won_contest": 1.2283, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.7512, "fouls_drawn": 1.241, "blocks": 0.1743, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0264, "xgot": 0.1052, "ball_carries": 17.794, "total_progression": 56.2128, "progressive_carries": 1.3848, "shots_off_target": 0.6415 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2858, "expected_assists": 0.1163, "assists": 0.0981, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goals": 0.0813, "goal_rate": 0.0813, "shots_on_target": 0.2964, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 7.1084, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 34.7359, "accurate_pass": 31.0848, "duels_won": 4.5124, "total_long_balls": 2.9035, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9994, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0254, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3076, "crosses_total": 1.6637, "crosses_accurate": 0.5513, "touches": 46.7217, "possession_lost": 7.7305, "dispossessed": 1.2056, "duels_lost": 3.035, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.1088, "interceptions": 0.0816, "tackles_won": 1.013, "tackles": 2.0232, "clearances": 0.2352, "total_contest": 1.7147, "won_contest": 1.2283, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.7512, "fouls_drawn": 1.241, "blocks": 0.1743, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0258, "xgot": 0.103, "ball_carries": 17.794, "total_progression": 56.2128, "progressive_carries": 1.3848, "shots_off_target": 0.6279, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9788, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Maffeo", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Maffeo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pablo Maffeo", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9788, "skill_edge": -0.0024, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4428, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pablo Maffeo", "market_value": 2400000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4428 } ], "xg_override": 0.0655 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0199, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9443, "after": 0.9243 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6415, "after": 0.6279 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3028, "after": 0.2964 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2858, "expected_assists": 0.1163, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goal_rate": 0.0813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2964, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 7.1084, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 34.7359, "accurate_pass": 31.0848, "duels_won": 4.5124, "total_long_balls": 2.9035, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9994, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0254, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3076, "crosses_total": 1.6637, "crosses_accurate": 0.5513, "touches": 46.7217, "possession_lost": 7.7305, "dispossessed": 1.2056, "duels_lost": 3.035, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.1088, "interceptions": 0.0816, "tackles_won": 1.013, "tackles": 2.0232, "clearances": 0.2352, "total_contest": 1.7147, "won_contest": 1.2283, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.7512, "fouls_drawn": 1.241, "blocks": 0.1743, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0258, "xgot": 0.103, "ball_carries": 17.794, "total_progression": 56.2128, "progressive_carries": 1.3848, "shots_off_target": 0.6279, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9788, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Maffeo", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Maffeo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.54 (squad xG sum 0.9978, xG scale 1.5484, xA scale 1.5484, team xA 1.15 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2858, "expected_assists": 0.1801, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goal_rate": 0.0813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2964, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 7.1084, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 34.7359, "accurate_pass": 31.0848, "duels_won": 4.5124, "total_long_balls": 2.9035, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9994, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0254, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3076, "crosses_total": 1.6637, "crosses_accurate": 0.5513, "touches": 46.7217, "possession_lost": 7.7305, "dispossessed": 1.2056, "duels_lost": 3.035, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.1088, "interceptions": 0.0816, "tackles_won": 1.013, "tackles": 2.0232, "clearances": 0.2352, "total_contest": 1.7147, "won_contest": 1.2283, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.7512, "fouls_drawn": 1.241, "blocks": 0.1743, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0258, "xgot": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 17.794, "total_progression": 56.2128, "progressive_carries": 1.3848, "shots_off_target": 0.6279, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9788, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Maffeo", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Maffeo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1368, "creation_factor": 0.8906 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.545, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9978, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7401, "team_expected_assists": 1.1459, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7417, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5484, "xa_scale": 1.5484, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0655, "after": 0.1014 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1163, "after": 0.1801 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2858, "expected_assists": 0.1801, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goal_rate": 0.0813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2964, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 7.1084, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 34.7359, "accurate_pass": 31.0848, "duels_won": 4.5124, "total_long_balls": 2.9035, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9994, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0254, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3076, "crosses_total": 1.6637, "crosses_accurate": 0.5513, "touches": 46.7217, "possession_lost": 7.7305, "dispossessed": 1.2056, "duels_lost": 3.035, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.1088, "interceptions": 0.0816, "tackles_won": 1.013, "tackles": 2.0232, "clearances": 0.2352, "total_contest": 1.7147, "won_contest": 1.2283, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.7512, "fouls_drawn": 1.241, "blocks": 0.1743, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0258, "xgot": 0.1595, "ball_carries": 17.794, "total_progression": 56.2128, "progressive_carries": 1.3848, "shots_off_target": 0.6279, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9788, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Maffeo", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Maffeo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1368, "creation_factor": 0.8906, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3132, "fifa_rank": 1548.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2858, "expected_assists": 0.1801, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goal_rate": 0.0813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2964, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 7.1084, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 34.7359, "accurate_pass": 31.0848, "duels_won": 4.5124, "total_long_balls": 2.9035, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9994, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0254, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3076, "crosses_total": 1.6637, "crosses_accurate": 0.5513, "touches": 46.7217, "possession_lost": 7.7305, "dispossessed": 1.2056, "duels_lost": 3.035, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.1088, "interceptions": 0.0816, 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"goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0964, "goal_rate": 0.0813, "scorer_weight": 0.1153, "squad_weight_total": 1.72, "weight_share": 0.067, "finishing_factor": 1.1368, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.5896, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5896, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2381 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2858, "expected_assists": 0.1801, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goal_rate": 0.0813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2964, "total_shots": 0.9243, "rating": 7.1084, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 34.7359, "accurate_pass": 31.0848, "duels_won": 4.5124, "total_long_balls": 2.9035, "accurate_long_balls": 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1.375643, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.391244 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.204904 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.066668 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057865 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.05052 } ], "others_margin": -0.288156 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.11632847785949707, "model_output": 0.1163, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1287 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { 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"contribution": 0.1067 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1038 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.1103 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0622 } ], "others": 0.2184, "total": 1.4766, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.235293 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.115067 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.100444 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.096744 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.05067 } ], "others_margin": 0.160118 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.950750827789307, "model_output": 6.9508, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0588 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0365 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0174 } ], "others": 0.0629, "total": 6.9507, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058831 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.036503 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.021517 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.01973 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.017391 } ], "others_margin": 0.062901 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / 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0.4109, "total_shots": 1.0261, "expected_assists": 0.1162, "key_pass": 1.4754, "rating": 6.9508, "minutes": 85.5, "total_pass": 29.5331, "accurate_pass": 24.8688, "duels_won": 4.6795, "total_long_balls": 1.3192, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4811, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5766, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8745, "crosses_total": 2.202, "crosses_accurate": 0.8121, "touches": 47.9418, "possession_lost": 11.1708, "dispossessed": 0.9753, "duels_lost": 3.9445, "aerial_lost": 0.5148, "total_contest": 1.7268, "won_contest": 0.7816, "ball_recovery": 2.4789, "challenges_lost": 0.6659, "fouls": 1.0276, "fouls_drawn": 2.0213, "assists": 0.0349, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "interceptions": 0.8844, "tackles_won": 0.9977, "tackles": 1.3997, "clearances": 0.8412, "blocks": 0.0294, "big_chances_created": 0.1566, "big_chances_missed": 0.0487, "xgot": 0.0691, "offsides": 0.1076, "ball_carries": 16.5498, "total_progression": 84.1527, "progressive_carries": 2.9618, "shots_off_target": 0.6151, 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0.1162, "key_pass": 1.4754, "rating": 6.9508, "minutes": 85.5, "total_pass": 29.5331, "accurate_pass": 24.8688, "duels_won": 4.6795, "total_long_balls": 1.3192, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4811, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5766, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8745, "crosses_total": 2.202, "crosses_accurate": 0.8121, "touches": 47.9418, "possession_lost": 11.1708, "dispossessed": 0.9753, "duels_lost": 3.9445, "aerial_lost": 0.5148, "total_contest": 1.7268, "won_contest": 0.7816, "ball_recovery": 2.4789, "challenges_lost": 0.6659, "fouls": 1.0276, "fouls_drawn": 2.0213, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8844, "tackles_won": 0.9977, "tackles": 1.3997, "clearances": 0.8412, "blocks": 0.0294, "big_chances_created": 0.1566, "big_chances_missed": 0.0487, "xgot": 0.0691, "offsides": 0.1076, "ball_carries": 16.5498, "total_progression": 84.1527, "progressive_carries": 2.9618, "shots_off_target": 0.6151, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8559, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Arnau Martínez, César Tárrega", "opponent_faced": "Arnau Martínez, César Tárrega", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.54 (squad xG sum 0.9978, xG scale 1.5484, xA scale 1.5484, team xA 1.15 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1905, "goal_rate": 0.1842, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4109, "total_shots": 1.0261, "expected_assists": 0.1799, "key_pass": 1.4754, "rating": 6.9508, "minutes": 85.5, "total_pass": 29.5331, "accurate_pass": 24.8688, "duels_won": 4.6795, "total_long_balls": 1.3192, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4811, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5766, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8745, "crosses_total": 2.202, "crosses_accurate": 0.8121, "touches": 47.9418, "possession_lost": 11.1708, "dispossessed": 0.9753, "duels_lost": 3.9445, "aerial_lost": 0.5148, "total_contest": 1.7268, "won_contest": 0.7816, "ball_recovery": 2.4789, "challenges_lost": 0.6659, "fouls": 1.0276, "fouls_drawn": 2.0213, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8844, "tackles_won": 0.9977, "tackles": 1.3997, "clearances": 0.8412, "blocks": 0.0294, "big_chances_created": 0.1566, "big_chances_missed": 0.0487, "xgot": 0.107, "offsides": 0.1076, "ball_carries": 16.5498, "total_progression": 84.1527, "progressive_carries": 2.9618, "shots_off_target": 0.6151, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8559, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Arnau Martínez, César Tárrega", "opponent_faced": "Arnau Martínez, César Tárrega", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.545, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9978, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7401, "team_expected_assists": 1.1459, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7417, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5484, "xa_scale": 1.5484, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.123, "after": 0.1905 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1162, "after": 0.1799 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 32 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Elche, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9227, "goals_prevented": -0.0492, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.5696, "accurate_pass": 33.922, "total_long_balls": 26.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 11.7031, "touches": 60.5066, "clearances": 1.5338, "ball_recovery": 9.8999, "high_claims": 1.1545, "punches": 1.2433, "aerial_won": 0.2262, "sweeper_actions": 0.7297, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7015, "saves_inside_box": 2.1916, "possession_lost": 16.0289, "duels_won": 0.2576, "duels_lost": 0.1613, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.7478 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-01T11:25:22.869020+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1508, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1282, "rating": 9.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.109, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-18", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 26.7477, "accurateLongBalls": 11.7031, "possessionLostCtrl": 16.0289, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2543, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.5522, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7009 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.922652244567871, "model_output": 2.9227, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", 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per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0163 } ], "others": 0.0237, "total": -0.0492, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.034818 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.025552 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.019735 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.01781 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.016294 } ], "others_margin": 0.023662 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.259275436401367, "model_output": 7.2593, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0552 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0531 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.053 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0212 } ], "others": 0.0544, "total": 7.2593, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.055241 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.053139 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.052982 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.035304 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.02123 } ], "others_margin": 0.05427 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9148, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0.2256, "sweeper_actions": 0.7277, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6996, "saves_inside_box": 2.1857, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0.2569, "duels_lost": 0.1609, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0394, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6756 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 105000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0176)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9046, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0.2256, "sweeper_actions": 0.7277, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6996, "saves_inside_box": 2.1857, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0.2569, "duels_lost": 0.1609, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0387, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6756 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0176, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9148, "after": 2.9046 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9046, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0.2256, "sweeper_actions": 0.7277, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6996, "saves_inside_box": 2.1857, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0.2569, "duels_lost": 0.1609, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0387, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6756 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9046, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0.2256, "sweeper_actions": 0.7277, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6996, "saves_inside_box": 2.1857, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0.2569, "duels_lost": 0.1609, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0387, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6756, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8704, "shots_faced": 8.3, "expected_saves": 2.03, "high_pressure_saves": 0.7, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra, Arnaut Danjuma", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra, Arnaut Danjuma", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.8704 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9046, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0.2256, "sweeper_actions": 0.7277, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6996, "saves_inside_box": 2.1857, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0.2569, "duels_lost": 0.1609, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0387, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6756, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8704, "shots_faced": 8.3, "expected_saves": 2.03, "high_pressure_saves": 0.7, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra, Arnaut Danjuma", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.54 (squad xG sum 0.9978, xG scale 1.5484, xA scale 1.5484, team xA 1.15 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9046, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0.2256, "sweeper_actions": 0.7277, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6996, "saves_inside_box": 2.1857, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0.2569, "duels_lost": 0.1609, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0387, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6756, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8704, "shots_faced": 11.2, "expected_saves": 2.74, "high_pressure_saves": 0.94, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra, Arnaut Danjuma", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.545, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9978, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7401, "team_expected_assists": 1.1459, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7417, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5484, "xa_scale": 1.5484, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 8.3, "after": 11.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.03, "after": 2.74 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.7, "after": 0.94 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9957, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7963, "goals_prevented": 0.0328, "rating": 7.303, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 55.9338, "accurate_pass": 40.7859, "total_long_balls": 22.83, "accurate_long_balls": 8.3554, "touches": 66.5625, "clearances": 1.655, "ball_recovery": 10.2013, "high_claims": 0.5242, "punches": 0.5931, "aerial_won": 0.225, "sweeper_actions": 1.3333, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3177, "saves_inside_box": 2.4931, "possession_lost": 15.452, "duels_won": 0.225, "duels_lost": 0.4396, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.027, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4469, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.0283 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3600000, "quality_factor": 0.4449, "boost_factor": 0.9957, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 16, "history_shrink": 0.2381, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4338, "goals_prevented": 0.0051, "rating": 7.303, "minutes": 4.42, "total_pass": 8.678, "accurate_pass": 6.3279, "total_long_balls": 3.542, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2963, "touches": 10.327, "clearances": 0.2568, "ball_recovery": 1.5827, "high_claims": 0.0813, "punches": 0.092, "aerial_won": 0.0349, "sweeper_actions": 0.2069, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2044, "saves_inside_box": 0.3868, "possession_lost": 2.3973, "duels_won": 0.0349, "duels_lost": 0.0682, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.42, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1551, "appearance_probability": 0.11 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4338, "goals_prevented": 0.0051, "rating": 7.303, "minutes": 4.42, "total_pass": 8.678, "accurate_pass": 6.3279, "total_long_balls": 3.542, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2963, "touches": 10.327, "clearances": 0.2568, "ball_recovery": 1.5827, "high_claims": 0.0813, "punches": 0.092, "aerial_won": 0.0349, "sweeper_actions": 0.2069, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2044, "saves_inside_box": 0.3868, "possession_lost": 2.3973, "duels_won": 0.0349, "duels_lost": 0.0682, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4338, "goals_prevented": 0.0051, "rating": 7.303, "minutes": 4.42, "total_pass": 8.678, "accurate_pass": 6.3279, "total_long_balls": 3.542, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2963, "touches": 10.327, "clearances": 0.2568, "ball_recovery": 1.5827, "high_claims": 0.0813, "punches": 0.092, "aerial_won": 0.0349, "sweeper_actions": 0.2069, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2044, "saves_inside_box": 0.3868, "possession_lost": 2.3973, "duels_won": 0.0349, "duels_lost": 0.0682, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.42, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.11, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4338, "goals_prevented": 0.0051, "rating": 7.303, "minutes": 4.42, "total_pass": 8.678, "accurate_pass": 6.3279, "total_long_balls": 3.542, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2963, "touches": 10.327, "clearances": 0.2568, "ball_recovery": 1.5827, "high_claims": 0.0813, "punches": 0.092, "aerial_won": 0.0349, "sweeper_actions": 0.2069, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2044, "saves_inside_box": 0.3868, "possession_lost": 2.3973, "duels_won": 0.0349, "duels_lost": 0.0682, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2794, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.42, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3365, "fifa_rank": 2437.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Kevin Lomónaco": { "player_id": 1003014, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 192, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.9984, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0061, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.002, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.31, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.82, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3656, "combined_rank_score": 1619.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3076.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kevin Lomónaco", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bashir Humphreys", "ranking": 3651 }, { "player_name": "Altimira", "ranking": 3652 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Almirón", "ranking": 3653 }, { "player_name": "Marko Livaja", "ranking": 3654 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Chust", "ranking": 3655 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Giorgi Kochorashvili", "ranking": 3657 }, { "player_name": "Quilindschy Hartman", "ranking": 3658 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Dorley", "ranking": 3659 }, { "player_name": "Mykola Matviienko", "ranking": 3660 }, { "player_name": "Hamed Junior Traorè", "ranking": 3661 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.824307952762858, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3101958160346754, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5011, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€8,199,999) scaled to 13.8 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.50)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.6, "tackles": 2.4, "tackles_won": 1.5, "clearances": 2.7, 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"minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 13.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.31)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2458, "tackles": 0.3686, "tackles_won": 0.2304, "clearances": 0.4147, "aerial_won": 0.3533, "duels_won": 0.8448, "total_pass": 6.7586, "accurate_pass": 5.3761, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 13.82, "total_long_balls": 0.9216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4608, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5329, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0752, "crosses_total": 0.1382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0614, "touches": 9.2162, "possession_lost": 0.9984, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.5376, "aerial_lost": 2.0, "total_contest": 0.6144, "won_contest": 0.3533, "ball_recovery": 0.768, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 0.1536, "fouls_drawn": 0.1075, "blocks": 0.1075, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0061, "assist_rate": 0.0061, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1233 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.006 } ], "others": 0.0267, "total": 0.2091, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.490771 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.213506 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.101767 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.079699 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032098 } ], "others_margin": 0.135984 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.41908347606658936, "model_output": 0.4191, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4103 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2338 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0168 } ], "others": -0.0135, "total": 0.4191, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.410258 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.233775 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.051099 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.02393 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.01684 } ], "others_margin": -0.013688 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.702676296234131, "model_output": 6.7027, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0753 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0156, "total": 6.7027, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075346 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03331 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027774 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009033 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.00632 } ], "others_margin": -0.015587 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1319 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0442 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0261, "total": 0.0653, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.535956 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.27118 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.192261 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.158592 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.087988 } ], "others_margin": -0.336365 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2425190657377243, "model_output": 0.2425, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3056 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.049 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0241 } ], "others": -0.1242, "total": 0.2425, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.305594 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.202433 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048983 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037138 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.024081 } ], "others_margin": -0.124187 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7082624435424805, "model_output": 6.7083, "scale": 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"step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.4 to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.31)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2331, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "assists": 0.0335, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "goals": 0.0261, "goal_rate": 0.0261, "shots_on_target": 0.0646, "total_shots": 0.2387, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 19.6204, "accurate_pass": 17.7721, "duels_won": 1.8677, "total_long_balls": 0.9422, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5789, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0529, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.474, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5675, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2982, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.0014, "possession_lost": 2.0734, "dispossessed": 0.2288, "duels_lost": 1.0193, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5395, "tackles_won": 0.2239, "tackles": 1.0975, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2691, "fouls": 0.5264, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010162 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.008575 } ], "others_margin": -0.017852 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.2586, "total_shots": 0.6917, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "key_pass": 0.4725, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 20.91, "total_pass": 9.9471, "accurate_pass": 7.4034, "duels_won": 0.3005, "total_long_balls": 0.3675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2415, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7137, "crosses_total": 0.2966, "crosses_accurate": 0.1483, "touches": 14.5043, "possession_lost": 3.9835, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.1177, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3005, "won_contest": 0.1745, "ball_recovery": 0.5901, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.3675, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.2415, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "interceptions": 0.1072, "tackles_won": 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0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0562, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.0456, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.54 (squad xG sum 0.9978, xG scale 1.5484, xA scale 1.5484, team xA 1.15 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, 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match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2613 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0632, "total": 0.2883, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.474368 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.069675 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.050783 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.048857 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1339, "goals": 0.2121, "goal_rate": 0.2121, "shots_on_target": 0.4815, "total_shots": 1.0082, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "key_pass": 0.2876, "rating": 6.6513, "minutes": 20.2, "total_pass": 4.1743, "accurate_pass": 3.776, "duels_won": 0.7207, "total_long_balls": 0.3762, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2508, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4044, "crosses_total": 0.1475, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.8123, "possession_lost": 2.5306, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 2.529, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.7345, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.2402, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4444, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5267 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.2 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.168, "goals": 0.2661, "goal_rate": 0.2661, "shots_on_target": 0.6042, "total_shots": 1.2651, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.3609, "rating": 6.6513, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6609, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.35, "projection_minutes": 20.2, "minutes_scale": 1.2548, "appearance_probability": 0.561 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.168, "goals": 0.2661, "goal_rate": 0.2661, "shots_on_target": 0.6042, "total_shots": 1.2651, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.3609, "rating": 6.6513, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6609, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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{ "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010775 } ], "others_margin": -0.011335 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1339, "goals": 0.2121, "goal_rate": 0.2121, "shots_on_target": 0.4815, "total_shots": 1.0082, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "key_pass": 0.2876, "rating": 6.6513, "minutes": 20.2, "total_pass": 4.1743, "accurate_pass": 3.776, "duels_won": 0.7207, "total_long_balls": 0.3762, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2508, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4044, "crosses_total": 0.1475, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.8123, "possession_lost": 2.5306, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 2.529, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.7345, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.2402, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4444, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5267 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.2 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.168, "goals": 0.2661, "goal_rate": 0.2661, "shots_on_target": 0.6042, "total_shots": 1.2651, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.3609, "rating": 6.6513, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6609, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.35, "projection_minutes": 20.2, "minutes_scale": 1.2548, "appearance_probability": 0.561 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.168, "goals": 0.2661, "goal_rate": 0.2661, "shots_on_target": 0.6042, "total_shots": 1.2651, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.3609, "rating": 6.6513, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6609, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.168, "goal_rate": 0.2661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6042, "total_shots": 1.2651, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.3609, "rating": 6.6513, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6609, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.54 (squad xG sum 0.9978, xG scale 1.5484, xA scale 1.5484, team xA 1.15 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1459, "goal_rate": 0.2661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6042, "total_shots": 1.2651, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "key_pass": 0.3609, "rating": 6.6513, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6609, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.545, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9978, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7401, "team_expected_assists": 1.1459, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7417, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5484, "xa_scale": 1.5484, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.561 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.168, "after": 0.1459 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1459, "goal_rate": 0.2661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6042, "total_shots": 1.2651, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "key_pass": 0.3609, "rating": 6.6513, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6609, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1951, "fifa_rank": 752.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1459, "goal_rate": 0.2661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6042, "total_shots": 1.2651, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "key_pass": 0.3609, "rating": 6.6513, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6609, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1285, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1285, "goal_rate": 0.2661, "scorer_weight": 0.1824, "squad_weight_total": 1.72, "weight_share": 0.106, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.5896, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5896, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2381 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1459, "goal_rate": 0.2661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6042, "total_shots": 1.2651, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "key_pass": 0.3609, "rating": 6.6513, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6609, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1285, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0161, "squad_weight_total": 1.141, "weight_share": 0.0141, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roy Revivo", "weight": 0.2407, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2407, "runner_up": "Thomas Lemar", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1604, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Fernando Niño" ] } ] } } ] }, "Facundo Buonanotte": { "player_id": 1117025, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 174, "market_value": 10900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 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"fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421084.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0762, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421058.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.2586, "total_shots": 0.6917, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "key_pass": 0.4725, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 20.91, "total_pass": 9.9471, "accurate_pass": 7.4034, "duels_won": 0.3005, "total_long_balls": 0.3675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2415, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7137, "crosses_total": 0.2966, "crosses_accurate": 0.1483, "touches": 14.5043, "possession_lost": 3.9835, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.1177, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3005, "won_contest": 0.1745, "ball_recovery": 0.5901, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.3675, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.2415, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "interceptions": 0.1072, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2415, "blocks": 0.1796, "big_chances_created": 0.2415, "big_chances_missed": 0.1745, "xgot": 0.0361, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4566, "total_progression": 36.8125, "progressive_carries": 1.1064, "shots_off_target": 0.4331 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0159)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.0578, "shots_on_target": 0.2615, "total_shots": 0.6982, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "key_pass": 0.4725, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 20.91, "total_pass": 9.9471, "accurate_pass": 7.4034, "duels_won": 0.3005, "total_long_balls": 0.3675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2415, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7137, "crosses_total": 0.302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1483, "touches": 14.5043, "possession_lost": 3.9835, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.1177, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3005, "won_contest": 0.1745, "ball_recovery": 0.5901, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.3717, "fouls_drawn": 0.0034, "assists": 0.2377, "assist_rate": 0.2377, "interceptions": 0.1089, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2415, "blocks": 0.1796, "big_chances_created": 0.2415, "big_chances_missed": 0.1745, "xgot": 0.0361, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4566, "total_progression": 36.8125, "progressive_carries": 1.1064, "shots_off_target": 0.4331 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0159, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2323, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6917, "after": 0.6982 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.2966, "after": 0.302 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.9 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goals": 0.073, "goal_rate": 0.073, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0562, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assists": 0.3001, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.0456, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 20.91, "minutes_scale": 1.2626, "appearance_probability": 0.534 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goals": 0.073, "goal_rate": 0.073, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0562, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assists": 0.3001, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.0456, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0562, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.0456, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.54 (squad xG sum 0.9978, xG scale 1.5484, xA scale 1.5484, team xA 1.15 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.0377, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9927, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.545, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9978, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7401, "team_expected_assists": 1.1459, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7417, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5484, "xa_scale": 1.5484, "opponent_lambda": 1.176, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.534 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0739, "after": 0.0611 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0562, "after": 0.0465 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.0377, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9927, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3732, "fifa_rank": 2691.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.0377, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0577, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9927, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.073, "scorer_weight": 0.0607, "squad_weight_total": 1.72, "weight_share": 0.0353, "finishing_factor": 0.9927, "appearance_weight": 0.534, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.5896, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5896, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2381 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.0377, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0577, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0445, "finishing_factor": 0.9927, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0445, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "provider_weight": 0.0581, "squad_weight_total": 1.141, "weight_share": 0.0509, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.534, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roy Revivo", "weight": 0.2407, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2407, "runner_up": "Thomas Lemar", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1604, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Fernando Niño" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.54, "expected_assists": 1.15, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 414, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.89, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } }, "Valencia": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Stole Dimitrievski": { "player_id": 97951, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 188, 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8246, "goals_prevented": -0.1221, "rating": 6.9293, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.4257, "accurate_pass": 19.7896, "total_long_balls": 18.3775, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4015, "touches": 43.8258, "clearances": 1.0256, "ball_recovery": 8.7735, "high_claims": 1.3908, "punches": 0.9391, "aerial_won": 0.3009, "sweeper_actions": 0.8515, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8369, "saves_inside_box": 1.8152, "possession_lost": 13.9178, "duels_won": 0.5444, "duels_lost": 0.0155, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2338, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4471, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.116, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1544, "shots_faced": 11.0, "expected_saves": 2.7, "high_pressure_saves": 0.92, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Germán Valera", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 0.8670, xG scale 1.3565, xA scale 1.3565, team xA 0.93 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8246, "goals_prevented": -0.1221, "rating": 6.9293, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.4257, "accurate_pass": 19.7896, "total_long_balls": 18.3775, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4015, "touches": 43.8258, "clearances": 1.0256, "ball_recovery": 8.7735, "high_claims": 1.3908, "punches": 0.9391, "aerial_won": 0.3009, "sweeper_actions": 0.8515, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8369, "saves_inside_box": 1.8152, "possession_lost": 13.9178, "duels_won": 0.5444, "duels_lost": 0.0155, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2338, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4471, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.116, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1544, "shots_faced": 14.7, "expected_saves": 3.6, "high_pressure_saves": 1.24, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Germán Valera", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 0.867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6851, "team_expected_assists": 0.9294, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7903, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3565, "xa_scale": 1.3565, "opponent_lambda": 1.545, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.0, "after": 14.7 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.7, "after": 3.6 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.92, "after": 1.24 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": 0.0083, "total": 0.4773, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060547 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026911 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.022784 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01222 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.01079 } ], "others_margin": 0.008259 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.755824565887451, "model_output": 6.7558, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.532)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7576, "tackles": 1.7944, "tackles_won": 1.0346, "clearances": 2.1701, "aerial_won": 0.6996, "total_shots": 0.4778, "rating": 6.7558, "minutes": 79.05, "total_pass": 38.9762, "accurate_pass": 32.8163, "duels_won": 2.8713, "total_long_balls": 3.9276, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5396, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1545, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.4298, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8217, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3865, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.284, "touches": 57.3623, "possession_lost": 10.1425, "dispossessed": 0.3546, "duels_lost": 3.0411, "aerial_lost": 1.0333, "total_contest": 0.7125, "won_contest": 0.2895, "ball_recovery": 2.8217, "challenges_lost": 0.7607, "fouls": 0.4825, "fouls_drawn": 0.4597, "blocks": 0.5463, "goals": 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"duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2416, "tackles": 1.4971, "tackles_won": 0.9405, "clearances": 6.5028, "aerial_won": 2.153, "total_shots": 0.6718, "rating": 6.8523, "minutes": 82.67, "total_pass": 38.7526, "accurate_pass": 33.0565, "duels_won": 4.4415, "total_long_balls": 5.3251, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8528, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9133, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0598, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1432, "crosses_total": 0.1665, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.0129, "possession_lost": 7.4941, "dispossessed": 0.1968, "duels_lost": 3.2751, "aerial_lost": 1.3506, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016507 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.015681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013809 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010649 } ], "others_margin": -0.005466 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9257, "tackles": 1.7887, "tackles_won": 1.072, "clearances": 2.4587, "aerial_won": 0.6731, "total_shots": 0.5471, "rating": 6.7518, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 30.0235, "accurate_pass": 27.2559, "duels_won": 3.7336, "total_long_balls": 1.6702, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8031, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.797, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4588, "crosses_total": 2.3642, "crosses_accurate": 0.7571, "touches": 49.0183, "possession_lost": 5.9014, "dispossessed": 0.1102, "duels_lost": 2.6016, "aerial_lost": 0.7266, "total_contest": 0.7977, "won_contest": 0.7083, "ball_recovery": 3.7802, "challenges_lost": 0.894, "fouls": 0.9344, "fouls_drawn": 0.8235, "blocks": 0.1812, "goals": 0.0052, 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5.9014, "dispossessed": 0.1102, "duels_lost": 2.6016, "aerial_lost": 0.7266, "total_contest": 0.7977, "won_contest": 0.7083, "ball_recovery": 3.7802, "challenges_lost": 0.894, "fouls": 0.9353, "fouls_drawn": 0.8292, "blocks": 0.1812, "goals": 0.0052, "goal_rate": 0.0052, "assists": 0.0313, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.0598, "shots_on_target": 0.3151, "big_chances_created": 0.1626, "xgot": 0.0276, "ball_carries": 11.6744, "total_progression": 55.6098, "progressive_carries": 1.4952, "key_pass": 1.1732, "shots_off_target": 0.2308, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9221, "tackles": 1.7887, "tackles_won": 1.0679, "clearances": 2.4587, "aerial_won": 0.6731, "total_shots": 0.5459, "rating": 6.7518, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 30.0235, "accurate_pass": 27.2559, "duels_won": 3.7336, "total_long_balls": 1.6702, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8031, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.797, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4588, "crosses_total": 2.3596, "crosses_accurate": 0.7571, "touches": 49.0183, "possession_lost": 5.9014, "dispossessed": 0.1102, "duels_lost": 2.6016, "aerial_lost": 0.7266, "total_contest": 0.7977, "won_contest": 0.7083, "ball_recovery": 3.7802, "challenges_lost": 0.894, "fouls": 0.9353, "fouls_drawn": 0.8292, "blocks": 0.1812, "goal_rate": 0.0052, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.0598, "shots_on_target": 0.3151, "big_chances_created": 0.1626, "xgot": 0.0276, "ball_carries": 11.6744, "total_progression": 55.6098, "progressive_carries": 1.4952, "key_pass": 1.1732, "shots_off_target": 0.2308, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Cepeda", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 0.8670, xG scale 1.3565, xA scale 1.3565, team xA 0.93 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9221, "tackles": 1.7887, "tackles_won": 1.0679, "clearances": 2.4587, "aerial_won": 0.6731, "total_shots": 0.5459, "rating": 6.7518, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 30.0235, "accurate_pass": 27.2559, "duels_won": 3.7336, "total_long_balls": 1.6702, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 0.867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6851, "team_expected_assists": 0.9294, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7903, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3565, "xa_scale": 1.3565, "opponent_lambda": 1.545, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0453, "after": 0.0614 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0598, "after": 0.0811 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"model_output": 6.9303, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0775 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0739 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0712, "total": 6.9303, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.077502 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.073852 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024625 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017456 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4567, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "assists": 0.0477, "assist_rate": 0.0477, "expected_goals": 0.0415, "goals": 0.0568, "goal_rate": 0.0568, "shots_on_target": 0.1547, "total_shots": 0.5515, "rating": 6.9791, "minutes": 85.57, "total_pass": 45.8292, "accurate_pass": 38.4232, "duels_won": 6.6408, "total_long_balls": 5.0435, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7135, "total_own_half_passes": 25.7666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7483, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0626, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.675, "crosses_total": 0.1631, "crosses_accurate": 0.0082, "touches": 63.0062, "possession_lost": 10.2822, "dispossessed": 1.308, "duels_lost": 5.2809, "aerial_won": 1.2549, "aerial_lost": 0.6994, "interceptions": 1.3963, "tackles_won": 1.7065, "tackles": 3.195, "clearances": 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109877 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.073065 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.069314 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.05061 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.016497 } ], "others_margin": -0.051148 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4442193806171417, "model_output": 0.4442, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.052 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0113 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1622, "tackles": 1.9934, "tackles_won": 1.2588, "clearances": 2.8733, "aerial_won": 1.1753, "total_shots": 0.4432, "rating": 6.7041, "minutes": 82.39, "total_pass": 31.147, "accurate_pass": 23.2253, "duels_won": 5.0162, "total_long_balls": 5.15, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4446, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1048, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.6422, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0422, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5831, "crosses_total": 2.7296, "crosses_accurate": 0.5029, "touches": 54.4204, "possession_lost": 13.403, "dispossessed": 0.2677, "duels_lost": 3.8854, "aerial_lost": 1.0743, "total_contest": 1.7501, "won_contest": 1.1082, "ball_recovery": 3.759, "challenges_lost": 0.9083, "fouls": 0.9934, "fouls_drawn": 0.7505, "blocks": 0.5508, "goals": 0.001, 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"tackles_won": 0.2174, "tackles": 0.4806, "clearances": 0.2948, "blocks": 0.0599, "big_chances_created": 0.0368, "big_chances_missed": 0.4115, "xgot": 0.107, "offsides": 0.4797, "ball_carries": 10.8676, "total_progression": 87.5826, "progressive_carries": 3.5782, "shots_off_target": 0.9717 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1451, "goals": 0.1932, "goal_rate": 0.1932, "shots_on_target": 0.6088, "total_shots": 1.5943, "expected_assists": 0.0938, "key_pass": 0.9507, "rating": 6.9044, "minutes": 83.13, "total_pass": 16.5624, "accurate_pass": 12.9302, "duels_won": 2.729, "total_long_balls": 0.9905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9723, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8727, 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"clearances": 0.2948, "blocks": 0.0599, "big_chances_created": 0.0368, "big_chances_missed": 0.4115, "xgot": 0.107, "offsides": 0.4798, "ball_carries": 10.8676, "total_progression": 87.5826, "progressive_carries": 3.5782, "shots_off_target": 0.9717 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1365, "goals": 0.1817, "goal_rate": 0.1817, "shots_on_target": 0.5726, "total_shots": 1.4994, "expected_assists": 0.0938, "key_pass": 0.9507, "rating": 6.9044, "minutes": 83.13, "total_pass": 16.5624, "accurate_pass": 12.9302, "duels_won": 2.729, "total_long_balls": 0.9905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9723, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8727, "crosses_total": 2.3797, "crosses_accurate": 0.7664, "touches": 28.8053, "possession_lost": 9.1506, "dispossessed": 0.8221, "duels_lost": 3.1071, "aerial_lost": 0.3233, "total_contest": 2.3846, "won_contest": 1.1973, "ball_recovery": 1.5308, "challenges_lost": 0.0636, "fouls": 0.7236, "fouls_drawn": 0.7705, "assists": 0.032, "assist_rate": 0.032, "interceptions": 0.1087, "tackles_won": 0.2199, "tackles": 0.4806, "clearances": 0.2948, "blocks": 0.0599, "big_chances_created": 0.0368, "big_chances_missed": 0.387, "xgot": 0.1006, "offsides": 0.4798, "ball_carries": 10.8676, "total_progression": 87.5826, "progressive_carries": 3.5782, "shots_off_target": 0.9139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9405, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo", "opponent_faced": "Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9405, "skill_edge": -0.0185, "height_edge": -0.022, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4785, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "market_value": 4900000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4809 }, { "player": "Roy Revivo", "market_value": 4600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4761 } ], "xg_override": 0.1365 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5943, "after": 1.4994 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9717, "after": 0.9139 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6088, "after": 0.5726 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4115, "after": 0.387 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1932, "after": 0.1817 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1451, "after": 0.1365 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.107, "after": 0.1006 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1365, "goal_rate": 0.1817, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5726, "total_shots": 1.4994, "expected_assists": 0.0938, "key_pass": 0.9507, "rating": 6.9044, "minutes": 83.13, "total_pass": 16.5624, "accurate_pass": 12.9302, "duels_won": 2.729, "total_long_balls": 0.9905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9723, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8727, "crosses_total": 2.3797, "crosses_accurate": 0.7664, "touches": 28.8053, "possession_lost": 9.1506, "dispossessed": 0.8221, "duels_lost": 3.1071, "aerial_lost": 0.3233, "total_contest": 2.3846, "won_contest": 1.1973, "ball_recovery": 1.5308, "challenges_lost": 0.0636, "fouls": 0.7236, "fouls_drawn": 0.7705, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1087, "tackles_won": 0.2199, "tackles": 0.4806, "clearances": 0.2948, "blocks": 0.0599, "big_chances_created": 0.0368, "big_chances_missed": 0.387, "xgot": 0.1006, "offsides": 0.4798, "ball_carries": 10.8676, "total_progression": 87.5826, "progressive_carries": 3.5782, "shots_off_target": 0.9139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9405, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo", "opponent_faced": "Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 0.8670, xG scale 1.3565, xA scale 1.3565, team xA 0.93 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1852, "goal_rate": 0.1817, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5726, "total_shots": 1.4994, "expected_assists": 0.1272, "key_pass": 0.9507, "rating": 6.9044, "minutes": 83.13, "total_pass": 16.5624, "accurate_pass": 12.9302, "duels_won": 2.729, "total_long_balls": 0.9905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9723, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8727, "crosses_total": 2.3797, "crosses_accurate": 0.7664, "touches": 28.8053, "possession_lost": 9.1506, "dispossessed": 0.8221, "duels_lost": 3.1071, "aerial_lost": 0.3233, "total_contest": 2.3846, "won_contest": 1.1973, "ball_recovery": 1.5308, "challenges_lost": 0.0636, "fouls": 0.7236, "fouls_drawn": 0.7705, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, 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0.9294, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7903, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3565, "xa_scale": 1.3565, "opponent_lambda": 1.545, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1365, "after": 0.1852 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0938, "after": 0.1272 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1852, "goal_rate": 0.1817, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5726, "total_shots": 1.4994, "expected_assists": 0.1272, "key_pass": 0.9507, "rating": 6.9044, "minutes": 83.13, "total_pass": 16.5624, "accurate_pass": 12.9302, "duels_won": 2.729, "total_long_balls": 0.9905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9723, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8727, "crosses_total": 2.3797, "crosses_accurate": 0.7664, "touches": 28.8053, "possession_lost": 9.1506, "dispossessed": 0.8221, "duels_lost": 3.1071, "aerial_lost": 0.3233, "total_contest": 2.3846, "won_contest": 1.1973, "ball_recovery": 1.5308, "challenges_lost": 0.0636, "fouls": 0.7236, "fouls_drawn": 0.7705, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1087, "tackles_won": 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0.1817, "scorer_weight": 0.2301, "squad_weight_total": 1.3468, "weight_share": 0.1708, "finishing_factor": 1.2424, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1852, "goal_rate": 0.1817, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5726, "total_shots": 1.4994, "expected_assists": 0.1272, "key_pass": 0.9507, "rating": 6.9044, "minutes": 83.13, "total_pass": 16.5624, "accurate_pass": 12.9302, "duels_won": 2.729, "total_long_balls": 0.9905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9723, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8727, "crosses_total": 2.3797, "crosses_accurate": 0.7664, "touches": 28.8053, "possession_lost": 9.1506, "dispossessed": 0.8221, "duels_lost": 3.1071, "aerial_lost": 0.3233, "total_contest": 2.3846, "won_contest": 1.1973, "ball_recovery": 1.5308, "challenges_lost": 0.0636, "fouls": 0.7236, 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"predicted": 6.825931549072266, "model_output": 6.8259, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0556 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0382, "total": 6.8259, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05556 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.023993 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.014922 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014511 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11.5569, "crosses_total": 3.6165, "crosses_accurate": 1.0249, "touches": 36.9172, "possession_lost": 10.4348, "dispossessed": 0.7589, "duels_lost": 2.8628, "aerial_lost": 0.4695, "total_contest": 1.4507, "won_contest": 0.9485, "ball_recovery": 3.454, "challenges_lost": 0.7467, "fouls": 0.3855, "fouls_drawn": 0.4514, "assists": 0.1164, "assist_rate": 0.1164, "interceptions": 0.3466, "tackles_won": 0.8633, "tackles": 1.2011, "clearances": 0.8603, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1521, "big_chances_missed": 0.0839, "xgot": 0.0747, "offsides": 0.3586, "ball_carries": 11.1646, "total_progression": 32.6417, "progressive_carries": 1.6673, "shots_off_target": 0.7231 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1042, "goals": 0.13, "goal_rate": 0.13, "shots_on_target": 0.3023, "total_shots": 0.9616, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1673, "creation_factor": 1.1743 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 0.867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6851, "team_expected_assists": 0.9294, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7903, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3565, "xa_scale": 1.3565, "opponent_lambda": 1.545, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1042, "after": 0.1413 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0917, "after": 0.1244 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 4.947, "aerialWon": 1.3007, "totalClearance_p90": 5.7193, "totalTackle": 0.9032, "totalTackle_p90": 0.9968 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.37975719571113586, "model_output": 0.3798, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], 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"importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7375 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0361 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0324 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0217 } ], "others": -0.0367, "total": 0.4993, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.758289 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.057213 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.054176 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.041728 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.03977 } ], "others_margin": -0.070931 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.2756533622741699, "model_output": 0.2757, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1951 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4605 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0536, "total": 0.2757, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.78292 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.054058 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.038313 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.036383 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.034765 } ], "others_margin": -0.177559 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.1466453075408936, "model_output": 2.1466, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.06 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2367 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1809 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0871 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0835 } ], "others": 0.2027, "total": 2.1466, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.924085 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.160948 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.107588 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.047942 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.043917 } ], "others_margin": 0.099213 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8293618559837341, "model_output": 0.8294, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7132 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0294 } ], "others": 0.0334, "total": 0.8294, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.73545 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.068565 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.045346 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.041137 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.037587 } ], "others_margin": 0.041123 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19075827300548553, "model_output": 0.1908, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1822 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.077 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0269, "total": 0.1908, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.182154 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.076966 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.015182 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009772 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009716 } ], "others_margin": -0.027064 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7457170486450195, "model_output": 6.7457, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": 0.0019, "total": 6.7457, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016081 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010709 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010295 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009501 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.008382 } ], "others_margin": 0.001904 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3792, "tackles": 0.4986, "tackles_won": 0.2753, "clearances": 2.1436, "aerial_won": 0.8282, "total_shots": 0.1905, "rating": 6.7457, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 41.1109, "accurate_pass": 34.263, "duels_won": 2.8176, "total_long_balls": 4.7356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4719, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0569, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.4746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.054, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7883, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.5892, "possession_lost": 7.1473, "dispossessed": 0.1255, "duels_lost": 1.8711, "aerial_lost": 1.1251, "total_contest": 0.4691, "won_contest": 0.4691, "ball_recovery": 2.2872, "challenges_lost": 0.2405, "fouls": 0.38, "fouls_drawn": 0.1477, "blocks": 0.5686, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1738, "assist_rate": 0.1738, "expected_goals": 0.0026, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1738, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.3128, "total_progression": 25.8828, "progressive_carries": 0.2954, "key_pass": 0.4691, "shots_off_target": 0.1905 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7700000, "quality_factor": 0.4951, "boost_factor": 0.9986, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3755, "tackles": 0.4986, "tackles_won": 0.2726, "clearances": 2.1436, "aerial_won": 0.8282, "total_shots": 0.1886, "rating": 6.7457, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 41.1109, "accurate_pass": 34.263, "duels_won": 2.8176, "total_long_balls": 4.7356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4719, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0569, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.4746, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.054, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7883, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.5892, "possession_lost": 7.1473, "dispossessed": 0.1255, "duels_lost": 1.8711, "aerial_lost": 1.1251, "total_contest": 0.4691, "won_contest": 0.4691, "ball_recovery": 2.2872, "challenges_lost": 0.2405, "fouls": 0.3802, "fouls_drawn": 0.1462, "blocks": 0.5686, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1721, "assist_rate": 0.1721, "expected_goals": 0.0026, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1738, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.3128, "total_progression": 25.8828, "progressive_carries": 0.2954, "key_pass": 0.4691, "shots_off_target": 0.1905 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 13.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2879, "tackles": 0.3823, "tackles_won": 0.209, "clearances": 1.6435, "aerial_won": 0.635, "total_shots": 0.1461, "rating": 6.7457, "minutes": 13.8, "total_pass": 31.5195, "accurate_pass": 26.2693, "duels_won": 2.1602, "total_long_balls": 3.6308, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1285, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8112, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0646, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2046, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.5532, "possession_lost": 5.4798, "dispossessed": 0.1255, "duels_lost": 1.4346, "aerial_lost": 1.1251, "total_contest": 0.3597, "won_contest": 0.3597, "ball_recovery": 1.7536, "challenges_lost": 0.2405, "fouls": 0.2915, "fouls_drawn": 0.1121, "blocks": 0.4359, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1319, "assist_rate": 0.1319, "expected_goals": 0.002, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.3734, "total_progression": 19.8442, "progressive_carries": 0.2265, "key_pass": 0.3597, "shots_off_target": 0.1461, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.222, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.8, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7667, "appearance_probability": 0.222 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2879, "tackles": 0.3823, "tackles_won": 0.209, "clearances": 1.6435, "aerial_won": 0.635, "total_shots": 0.1461, "rating": 6.7457, "minutes": 13.8, "total_pass": 31.5195, "accurate_pass": 26.2693, "duels_won": 2.1602, "total_long_balls": 3.6308, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1285, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8112, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0646, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2046, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.5532, "possession_lost": 5.4798, "dispossessed": 0.1255, "duels_lost": 1.4346, "aerial_lost": 1.1251, "total_contest": 0.3597, "won_contest": 0.3597, "ball_recovery": 1.7536, "challenges_lost": 0.2405, "fouls": 0.2915, "fouls_drawn": 0.1121, "blocks": 0.4359, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1319, "assist_rate": 0.1319, "expected_goals": 0.002, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.3734, "total_progression": 19.8442, "progressive_carries": 0.2265, "key_pass": 0.3597, "shots_off_target": 0.1461, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.222, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2879, "tackles": 0.3823, "tackles_won": 0.209, "clearances": 1.6435, "aerial_won": 0.635, "total_shots": 0.1461, "rating": 6.7457, "minutes": 13.8, "total_pass": 31.5195, "accurate_pass": 26.2693, "duels_won": 2.1602, "total_long_balls": 3.6308, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1285, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8112, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0646, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2046, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.5532, "possession_lost": 5.4798, "dispossessed": 0.1255, "duels_lost": 1.4346, "aerial_lost": 1.1251, "total_contest": 0.3597, "won_contest": 0.3597, "ball_recovery": 1.7536, "challenges_lost": 0.2405, "fouls": 0.2915, "fouls_drawn": 0.1121, "blocks": 0.4359, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1319, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.002, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.3734, "total_progression": 19.8442, "progressive_carries": 0.2265, "key_pass": 0.3597, "shots_off_target": 0.1461, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.222, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.8, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.222, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"others": 0.034, "total": 2.011, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.965177 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.23762 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.09404 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.052221 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": 0.034499 } ], "others_margin": 0.01703 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5769107937812805, "model_output": 0.5769, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8397 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1129 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0429 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0398 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0223 } ], "others": -0.0406, "total": 0.5769, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.949383 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.193136 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.069132 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.064153 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.035507 } ], "others_margin": -0.067928 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.21121685206890106, "model_output": 0.2112, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2385 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0296, "total": 0.2112, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.238458 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026162 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.024609 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013483 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.013204 } ], "others_margin": -0.029742 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.800662040710449, "model_output": 6.8007, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0201 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0162, "total": 6.8007, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.02124 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.020121 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.016654 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.009561 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007118 } ], "others_margin": -0.016094 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this 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clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1692, "tackles": 0.2409, "tackles_won": 0.1219, "clearances": 0.7785, "aerial_won": 0.2233, "total_shots": 0.0818, "rating": 6.8007, "minutes": 13.65, "total_pass": 19.3896, "accurate_pass": 16.2905, "duels_won": 1.4613, "total_long_balls": 2.4061, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9846, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0024, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.1097, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1808, "crosses_total": 0.0684, "crosses_accurate": 0.0521, "touches": 24.2284, "possession_lost": 3.3602, "dispossessed": 0.1466, "duels_lost": 1.2529, "aerial_lost": 1.2722, "total_contest": 0.1819, "won_contest": 0.1367, "ball_recovery": 1.0999, "challenges_lost": 0.7308, "fouls": 0.3731, "fouls_drawn": 0.2067, "blocks": 0.2717, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0125, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.396, "total_progression": 21.2654, "progressive_carries": 0.2063, "key_pass": 0.0858, "shots_off_target": 0.0818, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.302, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.65 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1692, "tackles": 0.2409, "tackles_won": 0.1219, "clearances": 0.7785, "aerial_won": 0.2233, "total_shots": 0.0818, "rating": 6.8007, "minutes": 13.65, "total_pass": 19.3896, "accurate_pass": 16.2905, "duels_won": 1.4613, "total_long_balls": 2.4061, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9846, "total_own_half_passes": 11.0024, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.1097, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1808, "crosses_total": 0.0684, "crosses_accurate": 0.0521, "touches": 24.2284, "possession_lost": 3.3602, 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"projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.396, "total_progression": 21.2654, "progressive_carries": 0.2063, "key_pass": 0.0858, "shots_off_target": 0.0818, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.302, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.65, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2102, "fifa_rank": 1422.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Harvey Elliott": { 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0875 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0436 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0198, "total": 6.6717, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087505 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043566 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030117 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009211 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.004544 } ], "others_margin": -0.019872 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 10, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0127, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3873, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0471, "expected_goals": 0.0455, "goals": 0.0407, "goal_rate": 0.0407, "shots_on_target": 0.1839, "total_shots": 0.5061, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 13.875, "accurate_pass": 11.4624, "duels_won": 0.4274, "total_long_balls": 0.6687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2862, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6949, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7677, "crosses_total": 0.5602, "crosses_accurate": 0.2498, "touches": 17.1794, "possession_lost": 3.5005, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.518, "aerial_won": 0.208, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1678, "tackles": 0.1678, "clearances": 0.349, "total_contest": 0.3207, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0515, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0084, "ball_carries": 5.4287, "total_progression": 10.3545, "progressive_carries": 0.3079, "shots_off_target": 0.3221 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0127, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.1 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "expected_goals": 0.047, "goals": 0.042, "goal_rate": 0.042, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 5.6053, "total_progression": 10.6913, "progressive_carries": 0.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 22.06, "minutes_scale": 1.0325, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "expected_goals": 0.047, "goals": 0.042, "goal_rate": 0.042, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 5.6053, "total_progression": 10.6913, "progressive_carries": 0.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 5.6053, "total_progression": 10.6913, "progressive_carries": 0.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 0.8670, xG scale 1.3565, xA scale 1.3565, team xA 0.93 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0063, "ball_carries": 5.6053, "total_progression": 10.6913, "progressive_carries": 0.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9485, "creation_factor": 1.2418 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 0.867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6851, "team_expected_assists": 0.9294, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7903, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3565, "xa_scale": 1.3565, "opponent_lambda": 1.545, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.535 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.047, "after": 0.0341 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0294, "after": 0.0213 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0063, "ball_carries": 5.6053, "total_progression": 10.6913, "progressive_carries": 0.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9485, "creation_factor": 1.2418, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3214, "fifa_rank": 1426.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0063, "ball_carries": 5.6053, "total_progression": 10.6913, "progressive_carries": 0.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.033, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9485, "creation_factor": 1.2418, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.033, "goal_rate": 0.042, "scorer_weight": 0.0323, "squad_weight_total": 1.3468, "weight_share": 0.024, "finishing_factor": 0.9485, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, 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0.0272, "creation_factor": 1.2418, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Filip Ugrinić": { "player_id": 857482, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 185, "market_value": 5700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "assist_rate": 0.0648, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 30, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 5.8662, "dispossessed": 0.3751, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, 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"others": -0.0114, "total": 6.7069, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.080366 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038931 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018223 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.007251 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.005747 } ], "others_margin": -0.011512 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4423, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "assists": 0.0467, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "expected_goals": 0.0231, "goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0311, "shots_on_target": 0.1243, "total_shots": 0.3172, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 21.2, "total_pass": 11.9089, "accurate_pass": 9.9354, "duels_won": 1.3737, "total_long_balls": 0.8888, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3602, "total_own_half_passes": 3.709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1101, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1998, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8253, "crosses_total": 1.311, "crosses_accurate": 0.6, "touches": 18.139, "possession_lost": 4.1803, "dispossessed": 0.3751, "duels_lost": 1.3556, "aerial_won": 0.1929, "aerial_lost": 0.2516, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4807, "tackles": 0.8389, "clearances": 0.5634, 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0.6207, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "assist_rate": 0.0648, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.176, "total_shots": 0.4505, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 29.75, "total_pass": 16.7118, "accurate_pass": 13.9424, "duels_won": 1.9277, "total_long_balls": 1.2473, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5055, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2048, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3644, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5068, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.578, "crosses_total": 1.8376, "crosses_accurate": 0.842, "touches": 25.4545, "possession_lost": 5.8662, "dispossessed": 0.3751, "duels_lost": 1.9023, "aerial_won": 0.2707, "aerial_lost": 0.2516, "interceptions": 0.0034, "tackles_won": 0.672, "tackles": 1.1772, "clearances": 0.7906, "total_contest": 0.629, "won_contest": 0.217, "challenges_lost": 0.1011, "fouls": 0.467, "fouls_drawn": 0.2736, "blocks": 0.1061, "big_chances_created": 0.4912, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0101, "ball_carries": 4.9803, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6207, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "assist_rate": 0.0648, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0431, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.176, "total_shots": 0.4505, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 29.75, "total_pass": 16.7118, "accurate_pass": 13.9424, "duels_won": 1.9277, "total_long_balls": 1.2473, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5055, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2048, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3644, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5068, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.578, "crosses_total": 1.8376, "crosses_accurate": 0.842, "touches": 25.4545, "possession_lost": 5.8662, "dispossessed": 0.3751, "duels_lost": 1.9023, "aerial_won": 0.2707, "aerial_lost": 0.2516, "interceptions": 0.0034, "tackles_won": 0.672, "tackles": 1.1772, "clearances": 0.7906, "total_contest": 0.629, "won_contest": 0.217, "challenges_lost": 0.1011, "fouls": 0.467, "fouls_drawn": 0.2736, "blocks": 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"season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421064.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5497, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3599, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334.0, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1376, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416330.0, "match_date": "2026-09-11", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1318, "creation_factor": 0.8757 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 0.867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6851, "team_expected_assists": 0.9294, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7903, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3565, "xa_scale": 1.3565, "opponent_lambda": 1.545, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.599 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1071, "after": 0.087 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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{ "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.087, "goal_rate": 0.1278, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.8224, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0.2457, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.4685, "accurate_pass": 4.098, "duels_won": 1.4663, "total_long_balls": 0.1775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1775, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1372, "crosses_total": 0.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.5017, "possession_lost": 2.94, "dispossessed": 0.4307, "duels_lost": 2.3554, "aerial_lost": 1.1437, "total_contest": 0.373, "won_contest": 0.1897, "ball_recovery": 0.3684, "challenges_lost": 0.1397, "fouls": 0.308, "fouls_drawn": 0.343, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0681, "tackles_won": 0.1458, "tackles": 0.1463, "clearances": 0.2238, "blocks": 0.1471, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 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"base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0658 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0166, "total": 6.6725, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065755 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.01163 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011201 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010606 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008224 } ], "others_margin": -0.016705 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0005, quality 0.518)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goals": 0.0674, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "shots_on_target": 0.1824, "total_shots": 0.5934, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "key_pass": 0.4493, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 21.11, "total_pass": 8.577, "accurate_pass": 7.1017, "duels_won": 1.4834, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0911, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3728, "crosses_total": 1.2057, "crosses_accurate": 0.5379, "touches": 15.3972, "possession_lost": 3.9523, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 1.9326, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.7507, "won_contest": 0.3836, "ball_recovery": 1.4292, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.0843, "fouls_drawn": 0.1989, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1673, "tackles_won": 0.5233, "tackles": 0.6106, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.047, "big_chances_missed": 0.1346, "xgot": 0.0203, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9657, "total_progression": 17.3104, "progressive_carries": 0.7642, "shots_off_target": 0.411 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9600000, "quality_factor": 0.5177, "boost_factor": 1.0005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.1 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.61, "projection_minutes": 21.11, "minutes_scale": 1.2132, "appearance_probability": 0.573 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 0.8670, xG scale 1.3565, xA scale 1.3565, team xA 0.93 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1304, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 0.867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6851, "team_expected_assists": 0.9294, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7903, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3565, "xa_scale": 1.3565, "opponent_lambda": 1.545, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.573 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0666, "after": 0.0518 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0542, "after": 0.0421 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1304, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3167, "fifa_rank": 1575.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0495, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1304, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "scorer_weight": 0.0586, "squad_weight_total": 1.3468, "weight_share": 0.0435, "finishing_factor": 1.1304, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0495, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0406, "finishing_factor": 1.1304, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0337, "squad_weight_total": 0.9711, "weight_share": 0.0347, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Hugo Duro": { "player_id": 909119, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 180, "market_value": 11600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.087, "goal_rate": 0.1278, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.94, "dispossessed": 0.4307, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0515, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0011, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1132, "goal_rate": 0.1132, "shots_on_target": 0.2805, "total_shots": 0.7267, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "key_pass": 0.2167, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 4.824, "accurate_pass": 3.615, "duels_won": 1.2935, "total_long_balls": 0.1566, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1566, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.0698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3819, "possession_lost": 2.5935, "dispossessed": 0.4307, "duels_lost": 2.0778, "aerial_lost": 1.1437, "total_contest": 0.329, "won_contest": 0.1673, "ball_recovery": 0.325, "challenges_lost": 0.1397, "fouls": 0.2719, "fouls_drawn": 0.302, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0594, "tackles_won": 0.1291, "tackles": 0.1291, "clearances": 0.1974, "blocks": 0.1298, "big_chances_created": 0.0376, "big_chances_missed": 0.2217, "xgot": 0.0559, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4836, "total_progression": 2.9965, "progressive_carries": 0.0562, "shots_off_target": 0.4462 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11600000, "quality_factor": 0.5411, "boost_factor": 1.0011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1127, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "shots_on_target": 0.2793, "total_shots": 0.7236, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "key_pass": 0.2167, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 4.824, "accurate_pass": 3.615, "duels_won": 1.2935, "total_long_balls": 0.1566, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1566, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8853, "crosses_total": 0.0695, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3819, "possession_lost": 2.5935, "dispossessed": 0.4307, "duels_lost": 2.0778, "aerial_lost": 1.1437, "total_contest": 0.329, "won_contest": 0.1673, "ball_recovery": 0.325, "challenges_lost": 0.1397, "fouls": 0.2717, "fouls_drawn": 0.3026, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0601, "tackles_won": 0.1286, "tackles": 0.1291, "clearances": 0.1974, "blocks": 0.1298, "big_chances_created": 0.0376, "big_chances_missed": 0.2217, "xgot": 0.0559, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4836, "total_progression": 2.9965, "progressive_carries": 0.0562, "shots_off_target": 0.4462 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2212, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goals": 0.1278, "goal_rate": 0.1278, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.8224, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.2457, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.4685, "accurate_pass": 4.098, "duels_won": 1.4663, "total_long_balls": 0.1775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1775, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1372, "crosses_total": 0.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.5017, "possession_lost": 2.94, "dispossessed": 0.4307, "duels_lost": 2.3554, "aerial_lost": 1.1437, "total_contest": 0.373, "won_contest": 0.1897, "ball_recovery": 0.3684, "challenges_lost": 0.1397, "fouls": 0.308, "fouls_drawn": 0.343, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0681, "tackles_won": 0.1458, "tackles": 0.1463, "clearances": 0.2238, "blocks": 0.1471, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2513, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6818, "total_progression": 3.3968, "progressive_carries": 0.0637, "shots_off_target": 0.5058, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.57, "projection_minutes": 19.91, "minutes_scale": 1.1336, "appearance_probability": 0.599 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goals": 0.1278, "goal_rate": 0.1278, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.8224, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.2457, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.4685, "accurate_pass": 4.098, "duels_won": 1.4663, "total_long_balls": 0.1775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1775, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1372, "crosses_total": 0.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.5017, "possession_lost": 2.94, "dispossessed": 0.4307, "duels_lost": 2.3554, "aerial_lost": 1.1437, "total_contest": 0.373, "won_contest": 0.1897, "ball_recovery": 0.3684, "challenges_lost": 0.1397, "fouls": 0.308, "fouls_drawn": 0.343, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0681, "tackles_won": 0.1458, "tackles": 0.1463, "clearances": 0.2238, "blocks": 0.1471, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2513, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6818, "total_progression": 3.3968, "progressive_carries": 0.0637, "shots_off_target": 0.5058, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goal_rate": 0.1278, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.8224, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.2457, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.4685, "accurate_pass": 4.098, "duels_won": 1.4663, "total_long_balls": 0.1775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1775, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1372, "crosses_total": 0.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.5017, "possession_lost": 2.94, "dispossessed": 0.4307, "duels_lost": 2.3554, "aerial_lost": 1.1437, "total_contest": 0.373, "won_contest": 0.1897, "ball_recovery": 0.3684, "challenges_lost": 0.1397, "fouls": 0.308, "fouls_drawn": 0.343, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0681, "tackles_won": 0.1458, "tackles": 0.1463, "clearances": 0.2238, "blocks": 0.1471, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2513, "xgot": 0.0634, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6818, "total_progression": 3.3968, "progressive_carries": 0.0637, "shots_off_target": 0.5058, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 0.8670, xG scale 1.3565, xA scale 1.3565, team xA 0.93 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.087, "goal_rate": 0.1278, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.8224, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0.2457, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.4685, "accurate_pass": 4.098, "duels_won": 1.4663, "total_long_balls": 0.1775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1775, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1372, "crosses_total": 0.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.5017, "possession_lost": 2.94, "dispossessed": 0.4307, "duels_lost": 2.3554, "aerial_lost": 1.1437, "total_contest": 0.373, "won_contest": 0.1897, "ball_recovery": 0.3684, "challenges_lost": 0.1397, "fouls": 0.308, "fouls_drawn": 0.343, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0681, "tackles_won": 0.1458, "tackles": 0.1463, "clearances": 0.2238, "blocks": 0.1471, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2513, "xgot": 0.0515, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6818, "total_progression": 3.3968, "progressive_carries": 0.0637, "shots_off_target": 0.5058, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1318, "creation_factor": 0.8757 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 0.867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6851, "team_expected_assists": 0.9294, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7903, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3565, "xa_scale": 1.3565, "opponent_lambda": 1.545, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.599 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1071, "after": 0.087 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.087, "goal_rate": 0.1278, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.8224, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0.2457, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.4685, "accurate_pass": 4.098, "duels_won": 1.4663, "total_long_balls": 0.1775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1775, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1372, "crosses_total": 0.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.5017, "possession_lost": 2.94, "dispossessed": 0.4307, "duels_lost": 2.3554, "aerial_lost": 1.1437, "total_contest": 0.373, "won_contest": 0.1897, "ball_recovery": 0.3684, "challenges_lost": 0.1397, "fouls": 0.308, "fouls_drawn": 0.343, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0681, "tackles_won": 0.1458, "tackles": 0.1463, "clearances": 0.2238, "blocks": 0.1471, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2513, "xgot": 0.0515, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6818, "total_progression": 3.3968, "progressive_carries": 0.0637, "shots_off_target": 0.5058, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1318, "creation_factor": 0.8757, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3220, "fifa_rank": 1559.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.087, "goal_rate": 0.1278, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.8224, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0.2457, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.4685, "accurate_pass": 4.098, "duels_won": 1.4663, "total_long_balls": 0.1775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1775, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1372, "crosses_total": 0.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.5017, "possession_lost": 2.94, "dispossessed": 0.4307, "duels_lost": 2.3554, "aerial_lost": 1.1437, "total_contest": 0.373, "won_contest": 0.1897, "ball_recovery": 0.3684, "challenges_lost": 0.1397, "fouls": 0.308, "fouls_drawn": 0.343, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0681, "tackles_won": 0.1458, "tackles": 0.1463, "clearances": 0.2238, "blocks": 0.1471, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2513, "xgot": 0.0515, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6818, "total_progression": 3.3968, "progressive_carries": 0.0637, "shots_off_target": 0.5058, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.081, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1318, "creation_factor": 0.8757, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.081, "goal_rate": 0.1278, "scorer_weight": 0.0985, "squad_weight_total": 1.3468, "weight_share": 0.0731, "finishing_factor": 1.1318, "appearance_weight": 0.599, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.087, "goal_rate": 0.1278, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3166, "total_shots": 0.8224, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0.2457, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.4685, "accurate_pass": 4.098, "duels_won": 1.4663, "total_long_balls": 0.1775, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1775, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1372, "crosses_total": 0.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.5017, "possession_lost": 2.94, "dispossessed": 0.4307, "duels_lost": 2.3554, "aerial_lost": 1.1437, "total_contest": 0.373, "won_contest": 0.1897, "ball_recovery": 0.3684, "challenges_lost": 0.1397, "fouls": 0.308, "fouls_drawn": 0.343, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0681, "tackles_won": 0.1458, "tackles": 0.1463, "clearances": 0.2238, "blocks": 0.1471, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2513, "xgot": 0.0515, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6818, "total_progression": 3.3968, "progressive_carries": 0.0637, "shots_off_target": 0.5058, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.081, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0058, "finishing_factor": 1.1318, "creation_factor": 0.8757, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0058, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0051, "squad_weight_total": 0.9711, "weight_share": 0.0052, "creation_factor": 0.8757, "appearance_weight": 0.599, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Diego López": { "player_id": 998950, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 172, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0495, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0406, "finishing_factor": 1.1304, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083739.0, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 52, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2276, "expected_assists": 0.5462, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, 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"base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0658 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0166, "total": 6.6725, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065755 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.01163 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011201 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010606 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008224 } ], "others_margin": -0.016705 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0005, quality 0.518)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goals": 0.0674, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "shots_on_target": 0.1824, "total_shots": 0.5934, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "key_pass": 0.4493, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 21.11, "total_pass": 8.577, "accurate_pass": 7.1017, "duels_won": 1.4834, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0911, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3728, "crosses_total": 1.2057, "crosses_accurate": 0.5379, "touches": 15.3972, "possession_lost": 3.9523, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 1.9326, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.7507, "won_contest": 0.3836, "ball_recovery": 1.4292, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.0843, "fouls_drawn": 0.1989, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1673, "tackles_won": 0.5233, "tackles": 0.6106, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.047, "big_chances_missed": 0.1346, "xgot": 0.0203, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9657, "total_progression": 17.3104, "progressive_carries": 0.7642, "shots_off_target": 0.411 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9600000, "quality_factor": 0.5177, "boost_factor": 1.0005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.1 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.61, "projection_minutes": 21.11, "minutes_scale": 1.2132, "appearance_probability": 0.573 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0542, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 0.8670, xG scale 1.3565, xA scale 1.3565, team xA 0.93 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1304, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 0.867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6851, "team_expected_assists": 0.9294, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7903, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3565, "xa_scale": 1.3565, "opponent_lambda": 1.545, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.573 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0666, "after": 0.0518 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0542, "after": 0.0421 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1304, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3167, "fifa_rank": 1575.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0495, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1304, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "scorer_weight": 0.0586, "squad_weight_total": 1.3468, "weight_share": 0.0435, "finishing_factor": 1.1304, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2213, "total_shots": 0.7199, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.5451, "rating": 6.6725, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4986, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0495, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0406, "finishing_factor": 1.1304, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0337, "squad_weight_total": 0.9711, "weight_share": 0.0347, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Harvey Elliott": { 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0875 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0436 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0198, "total": 6.6717, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087505 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043566 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030117 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009211 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.004544 } ], "others_margin": -0.019872 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0127, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3873, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0471, "expected_goals": 0.0455, "goals": 0.0407, "goal_rate": 0.0407, "shots_on_target": 0.1839, "total_shots": 0.5061, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 13.875, "accurate_pass": 11.4624, "duels_won": 0.4274, "total_long_balls": 0.6687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2862, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6949, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8784, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7677, "crosses_total": 0.5602, "crosses_accurate": 0.2498, "touches": 17.1794, "possession_lost": 3.5005, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.518, "aerial_won": 0.208, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1678, "tackles": 0.1678, "clearances": 0.349, "total_contest": 0.3207, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0515, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0084, "ball_carries": 5.4287, "total_progression": 10.3545, "progressive_carries": 0.3079, "shots_off_target": 0.3221 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0127, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.1 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "expected_goals": 0.047, "goals": 0.042, "goal_rate": 0.042, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 5.6053, "total_progression": 10.6913, "progressive_carries": 0.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 22.06, "minutes_scale": 1.0325, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "expected_goals": 0.047, "goals": 0.042, "goal_rate": 0.042, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 5.6053, "total_progression": 10.6913, "progressive_carries": 0.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 5.6053, "total_progression": 10.6913, "progressive_carries": 0.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 0.8670, xG scale 1.3565, xA scale 1.3565, team xA 0.93 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0063, "ball_carries": 5.6053, "total_progression": 10.6913, "progressive_carries": 0.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9485, "creation_factor": 1.2418 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.176, "squad_xg_sum": 0.867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6851, "team_expected_assists": 0.9294, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7903, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3565, "xa_scale": 1.3565, "opponent_lambda": 1.545, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.535 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.047, "after": 0.0341 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0294, "after": 0.0213 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0063, "ball_carries": 5.6053, "total_progression": 10.6913, "progressive_carries": 0.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9485, "creation_factor": 1.2418, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3214, "fifa_rank": 1426.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0063, "ball_carries": 5.6053, "total_progression": 10.6913, "progressive_carries": 0.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.033, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9485, "creation_factor": 1.2418, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.033, "goal_rate": 0.042, "scorer_weight": 0.0323, "squad_weight_total": 1.3468, "weight_share": 0.024, "finishing_factor": 0.9485, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3999, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.5226, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 14.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.8352, "duels_won": 0.4413, "total_long_balls": 0.6904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0529, "crosses_total": 0.5784, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 17.7381, "possession_lost": 3.6143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5348, "aerial_won": 0.2148, "aerial_lost": 0.1973, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1733, "tackles": 0.1733, "clearances": 0.3604, "total_contest": 0.3311, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0532, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0063, "ball_carries": 5.6053, "total_progression": 10.6913, "progressive_carries": 0.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.3326, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.033, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "finishing_factor": 0.9485, "creation_factor": 1.2418, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "provider_weight": 0.0265, "squad_weight_total": 0.9711, "weight_share": 0.0272, "creation_factor": 1.2418, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.18, "expected_assists": 0.93, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 402, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Thomas Lemar", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pablo Maffeo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "xg_contribution": 0.0655, "xg_multiplier": 0.9788, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Maffeo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thomas Lemar (LW) is evenly matched against Pablo Maffeo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo Villar", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Guido Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.445, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "xg_contribution": 0.0737, "xg_multiplier": 0.9663, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Guido Rodríguez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.563 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo Villar (CAM) is evenly matched against Guido Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Fernando Niño", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Arnau Martínez", "César Tárrega" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.523, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3517, "xg_multiplier": 0.9406, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arnau Martínez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fernando Niño (ST) is evenly matched against Arnau Martínez and César Tárrega in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.352 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Cepeda", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Arnau Martínez", "César Tárrega" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.523, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1005, "xg_multiplier": 0.8592, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arnau Martínez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Cepeda (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Arnau Martínez and César Tárrega in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Germán Valera", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Arnau Martínez", "César Tárrega" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.523, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.123, "xg_multiplier": 0.8559, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arnau Martínez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Germán Valera (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Arnau Martínez and César Tárrega in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.123 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Federico Redondo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pepelu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.384, "xg_contribution": 0.0562, "xg_multiplier": 0.9762, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pepelu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.616 } ], "duel_analysis": "Federico Redondo (CDM) is evenly matched against Pepelu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Javi Morcillo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pepelu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.364, "xg_contribution": 0.0373, "xg_multiplier": 0.9468, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pepelu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.636 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javi Morcillo (CDM) is evenly matched against Pepelu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Luis Rioja", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Matías Dituro" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "xg_contribution": 0.1042, "xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matías Dituro", "role": "GK", "market_value": 105000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luis Rioja (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Matías Dituro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.104 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Arnaut Danjuma", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.459, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1365, "xg_multiplier": 0.9405, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Roy Revivo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arnaut Danjuma (ST) is evenly matched against Buba Sangaré and Roy Revivo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.136 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Guido Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Federico Redondo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "xg_contribution": 0.0412, "xg_multiplier": 0.9925, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Federico Redondo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.585 } ], "duel_analysis": "Guido Rodríguez (CDM) is evenly matched against Federico Redondo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pepelu", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Federico Redondo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "xg_contribution": 0.0545, "xg_multiplier": 1.0238, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Federico Redondo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pepelu (CM) is evenly matched against Federico Redondo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Javier Guerra", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Federico Redondo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "xg_contribution": 0.1769, "xg_multiplier": 1.1739, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Federico Redondo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.432 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Guerra (CM) is slightly favored against Federico Redondo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.177 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Aaron Mayol", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4700000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.458, "defenders": [ "Federico Redondo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "xg_contribution": 0.0599, "xg_multiplier": 0.9888, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Federico Redondo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.558 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aaron Mayol (CM) is evenly matched against Federico Redondo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.462, "away_midfield_power": 0.545, "home_creative_power": 0.372, "away_creative_power": 0.603, "home_defensive_power": 0.372, "away_defensive_power": 0.485, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.459, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Federico Redondo", "Gonzalo Villar", "Javi Morcillo", "Thomas Lemar" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Pepelu", "Aaron Mayol", "Guido Rodríguez", "Javier Guerra" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Federico Redondo vs Javier Guerra", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.982, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.026 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.545, "away_lambda": 1.176, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Thomas Lemar": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Maffeo", "Aaron Mayol" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo Villar": { "opponents": [ "Guido Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Fernando Niño": { "opponents": [ "Arnau Martínez", "César Tárrega" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucas Cepeda": { "opponents": [ "Arnau Martínez", "César Tárrega" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Germán Valera": { "opponents": [ "Arnau Martínez", "César Tárrega" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Federico Redondo": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu", "Guido Rodríguez", "Javier Guerra", "Aaron Mayol" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javi Morcillo": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu", "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matías Dituro": { "opponents": [ "Luis Rioja" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Buba Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "Arnaut Danjuma" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Roy Revivo": { "opponents": [ "Arnaut Danjuma" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Víctor Chust": { "opponents": [ "Luis Rioja" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Pablo Maffeo": { "opponents": [ "Thomas Lemar" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Guido Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo Villar", "Federico Redondo" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Arnau Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño", "Lucas Cepeda", "Germán Valera" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "César Tárrega": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño", "Lucas Cepeda", "Germán Valera" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pepelu": { "opponents": [ "Federico Redondo", "Javi Morcillo" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Luis Rioja": { "opponents": [ "Matías Dituro" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Arnaut Danjuma": { "opponents": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Javier Guerra": { "opponents": [ "Federico Redondo", "Javi Morcillo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aaron Mayol": { "opponents": [ "Federico Redondo", "Thomas Lemar" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Stole Dimitrievski": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera", "Fernando Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "José Luis Gayà": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Cepeda" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Federico Redondo vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.051, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0709, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9904, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0164, "home_midfield_factor": 0.982, "away_midfield_factor": 1.026, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4465, "away_avg_quality": 0.4891, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0427, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.6658, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.7552, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.613, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1272, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.07, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0407, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8079, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9434 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.982, "result": 0.9264 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.9172 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.2306 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0119, "result": 1.2453 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.2586 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9904, "result": 1.2464 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.051, "result": 1.2974 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2974, "result": 1.2974, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1272, "factor": 0.9593, "pre": 1.2974, "result": 1.2446 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2446 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1781, "result": 1.4231 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2444, "result": 1.1544 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1544, "result": 1.154, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.154 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 1.154, "result": 1.121, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.121 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.121 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.121, "result": 1.121, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.35, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.545 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.5732, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.7674 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.026, "result": 0.7874 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 0.811 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.811 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9124, "result": 0.7399 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.7478 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0164, "result": 0.7601 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0709, "result": 0.8309 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8309, "result": 0.8309, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1272, "factor": 1.07, "pre": 0.8309, "result": 0.8891 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8891 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1655, "result": 1.0545 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2469, "result": 0.8704 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8704, "result": 0.87, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.87 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 0.87, "result": 0.8949, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.895 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.895 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.895, "result": 0.895, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.35, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.176 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1781, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1655, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Elche", "away_squad": "Valencia", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.244, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.247, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.121, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.895, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1544, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8704, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.35, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.545, "final_away_lambda": 1.176 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0119, "attack_index": 0.967, "defense_concede_index": 1.057, "form_multiplier": 1.015, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.46, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.6, "team_ppg": 1.14, "opponent_ppg": 0.89 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9124, "attack_index": 0.756, "defense_concede_index": 1.057, "form_multiplier": 0.985, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.14, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.6, "team_ppg": 0.89, "opponent_ppg": 1.14 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Elche vs Valencia. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3 (duel lambdas: Home 1.154, Away 0.870). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.545, Away 1.176 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Elche", "away_squad": "Valencia", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.244, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.247, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.545, "away_lambda": 1.176, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.154, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.87 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.35, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-01T14:31:40Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }