{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Newcastle", "away_team": "Everton", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261102", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1148, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0818, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0861, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2471, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1148 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0861 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0818 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0784 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0745 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0534, "0-1": 0.0784, "0-2": 0.0599, "0-3": 0.0302, "0-4": 0.0114, "0-5": 0.0034, "0-6": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.0745, "1-1": 0.1148, "1-2": 0.0861, "1-3": 0.0433, "1-4": 0.0164, "1-5": 0.0049, "1-6": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0541, "2-1": 0.0818, "2-2": 0.0618, "2-3": 0.0311, "2-4": 0.0118, "2-5": 0.0036, "2-6": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.0259, "3-1": 0.0391, "3-2": 0.0296, "3-3": 0.0149, "3-4": 0.0056, "3-5": 0.0017, "4-0": 0.0093, "4-1": 0.0141, "4-2": 0.0106, "4-3": 0.0053, "4-4": 0.002, "4-5": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0027, "5-1": 0.004, "5-2": 0.003, "5-3": 0.0015, "5-4": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.001, "6-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3598, "draw": 0.2471, "away_win": 0.3931 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5648, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4352, "btts_yes": 0.5948, "btts_no": 0.4052, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2207, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2379 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.88, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.81, "GK": 6.93 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.83, "MCR": 7.06, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 7.11 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Newcastle vs Everton. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Newcastle 3W-2D-5L vs Everton over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Harvey Barnes, Thierno Barry", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Nico González vs James Garner will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.83, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.436, "away_lambda": 1.511, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 3, "away_wins": 5, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 0.9857, "away_multiplier": 1.0143 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1148, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3598, "draw": 0.2471, "away_win": 0.3931 }, "favorite": "Everton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3931, "fair_spread": -0.075, "fair_total": 2.947, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.436, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.511, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5648, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5948, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2207, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2379, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.3002, "probability": 0.2593, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Thierno Barry (Everton)", "estimate": 0.4742, "probability": 0.3776, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.1437, "probability": 0.1339, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles (Everton)", "estimate": 0.2356, "probability": 0.2099, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.947, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 852, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.3, "possession_home_pct": 49.4, "possession_away_pct": 50.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Everton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3931, "script": "Everton is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.07 goals and fair total 2.95.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Newcastle must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Everton lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Everton chance creation leans on Thierno Barry against Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Newcastle: starters carry the main goal usage through Harvey Barnes; bench watchlist: Matías Fernández-Pardo, Nick Woltemade, Aladji Bamba.", "Everton: starters carry the main goal usage through Thierno Barry; bench watchlist: Hayden Hackney, Jack Grealish, Beto.", "Assist usage should flow through Jacob Murphy, Ainsley Maitland-Niles; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Everton tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.47 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Newcastle is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Everton.", "Newcastle wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Newcastle": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Lukáš Horníček": { "player_id": 963744, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 194, "market_value": 25000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0029, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 16, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 42, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 1.1923, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 11.8079, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4069, "shots_faced": 14.4, "expected_saves": 3.53, "high_pressure_saves": 1.21, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363895.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.8608 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363888.0, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0521 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363874.0, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.3789 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363868.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.4351 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.0868 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363637.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.0004 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363256.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.906 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363246.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.9684 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1917, "combined_rank_score": 743.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1434.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9264, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lukáš Horníček", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Juan Fuentes", "ranking": 1912 }, { "player_name": "Corey Hollman", "ranking": 1913 }, { "player_name": "Elia Caprile", "ranking": 1914 }, { "player_name": "Lee Taek-Geun", "ranking": 1915 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Augusto", "ranking": 1916 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Francisco Conceição", "ranking": 1918 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Svensson", "ranking": 1919 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Campuzano", "ranking": 1920 }, { "player_name": "Javier Altamirano", "ranking": 1921 }, { "player_name": "Kim Beom-Su", "ranking": 1922 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0199, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Newcastle", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 8 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Newcastle, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.0098, "goals_prevented": 0.0029, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.1912, "accurate_pass": 19.4283, "total_long_balls": 15.3919, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8281, "touches": 41.3233, "clearances": 2.2055, "ball_recovery": 6.9187, "high_claims": 0.1479, "punches": 1.169, "aerial_won": 0.4124, "sweeper_actions": 1.4625, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4625, "saves_inside_box": 2.185, "possession_lost": 11.5775, "duels_won": 0.5039, "duels_lost": 0.2756, "total_contest": 0.2181, "won_contest": 0.0915, "fouls": 0.149, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2643 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-02T11:04:17.745135+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-25", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-12", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 5.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 7.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 16.2643, "accurateLongBalls": 4.8281, "possessionLostCtrl": 11.5775, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.3213, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.6082, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.5091 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.009758710861206, "model_output": 3.0098, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": 0.0219, "total": 3.0098, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.009281 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.006977 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.005549 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.005396 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.004881 } ], "others_margin": 0.007263 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0028579821810126305, "model_output": 0.0029, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 0.0029, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.022812 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.020516 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019232 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.011772 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.011488 } ], "others_margin": 0.006765 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9264326095581055, "model_output": 6.9264, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0136, "total": 6.9264, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.026749 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.023319 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.021508 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01478 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01423 } ], "others_margin": -0.013589 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0199, quality 0.677)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0697, "goals_prevented": 0.0029, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.792, "accurate_pass": 19.8149, "total_long_balls": 15.6982, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9242, "touches": 42.1456, "clearances": 2.2494, "ball_recovery": 7.0564, "high_claims": 0.1508, "punches": 1.1923, "aerial_won": 0.4206, "sweeper_actions": 1.4916, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4916, "saves_inside_box": 2.2285, "possession_lost": 11.8079, "duels_won": 0.5139, "duels_lost": 0.2811, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.0933, "fouls": 0.152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6299, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.588 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 25000000, "quality_factor": 0.6773, "boost_factor": 1.0199, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0333)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1174, "goals_prevented": 0.0029, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.792, "accurate_pass": 19.8149, "total_long_balls": 15.6982, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9242, "touches": 42.1456, "clearances": 2.2494, "ball_recovery": 7.0564, "high_claims": 0.1508, "punches": 1.1923, "aerial_won": 0.4206, "sweeper_actions": 1.4916, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4916, "saves_inside_box": 2.2285, "possession_lost": 11.8079, "duels_won": 0.5139, "duels_lost": 0.2811, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.0933, "fouls": 0.1469, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6299, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.588 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0333, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 3.0697, "after": 3.1174 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.152, "after": 0.1469 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.1174, "goals_prevented": 0.0029, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.792, "accurate_pass": 19.8149, "total_long_balls": 15.6982, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9242, "touches": 42.1456, "clearances": 2.2494, "ball_recovery": 7.0564, "high_claims": 0.1508, "punches": 1.1923, "aerial_won": 0.4206, "sweeper_actions": 1.4916, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4916, "saves_inside_box": 2.2285, "possession_lost": 11.8079, "duels_won": 0.5139, "duels_lost": 0.2811, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.0933, "fouls": 0.1469, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6299, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.588 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1174, "goals_prevented": 0.0029, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.792, "accurate_pass": 19.8149, "total_long_balls": 15.6982, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9242, "touches": 42.1456, "clearances": 2.2494, "ball_recovery": 7.0564, "high_claims": 0.1508, "punches": 1.1923, "aerial_won": 0.4206, "sweeper_actions": 1.4916, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4916, "saves_inside_box": 2.2285, "possession_lost": 11.8079, "duels_won": 0.5139, "duels_lost": 0.2811, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.0933, "fouls": 0.1469, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6299, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.588, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4069, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.4069 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.1174, "goals_prevented": 0.0029, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.792, "accurate_pass": 19.8149, "total_long_balls": 15.6982, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9242, "touches": 42.1456, "clearances": 2.2494, "ball_recovery": 7.0564, "high_claims": 0.1508, "punches": 1.1923, "aerial_won": 0.4206, "sweeper_actions": 1.4916, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4916, "saves_inside_box": 2.2285, "possession_lost": 11.8079, "duels_won": 0.5139, "duels_lost": 0.2811, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.0933, "fouls": 0.1469, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6299, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.588, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4069, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.44 (squad xG sum 1.1284, xG scale 1.2725, xA scale 1.2725, team xA 0.98 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1174, "goals_prevented": 0.0029, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.792, "accurate_pass": 19.8149, "total_long_balls": 15.6982, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9242, "touches": 42.1456, "clearances": 2.2494, "ball_recovery": 7.0564, "high_claims": 0.1508, "punches": 1.1923, "aerial_won": 0.4206, "sweeper_actions": 1.4916, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4916, "saves_inside_box": 2.2285, "possession_lost": 11.8079, "duels_won": 0.5139, "duels_lost": 0.2811, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.0933, "fouls": 0.1469, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6299, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.588, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4069, "shots_faced": 14.4, "expected_saves": 3.53, "high_pressure_saves": 1.21, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.436, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1284, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7698, "team_expected_assists": 0.9795, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2725, "xa_scale": 1.2725, "opponent_lambda": 1.511, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 13.4, "after": 14.4 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.28, "after": 3.53 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.13, "after": 1.21 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1174, "goals_prevented": 0.0029, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.792, "accurate_pass": 19.8149, "total_long_balls": 15.6982, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9242, "touches": 42.1456, "clearances": 2.2494, "ball_recovery": 7.0564, "high_claims": 0.1508, "punches": 1.1923, "aerial_won": 0.4206, "sweeper_actions": 1.4916, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4916, "saves_inside_box": 2.2285, "possession_lost": 11.8079, "duels_won": 0.5139, "duels_lost": 0.2811, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.0933, "fouls": 0.1469, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6299, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.588, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4069, "shots_faced": 14.4, "expected_saves": 3.53, "high_pressure_saves": 1.21, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1521, "runner_up": "Joe Willock", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.142, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Harvey Barnes" ] } ] } } ] }, "Amar Dedić": { "player_id": 1102791, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 37, "height": 180, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 11.9053, "dispossessed": 0.2356, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, 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"totalShots", "predicted": 0.5600551962852478, "model_output": 0.5601, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.057 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 0.5601, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056982 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023603 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.02171 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020397 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.01349 } ], "others_margin": -0.016581 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.723116397857666, "model_output": 6.7231, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 6.7231, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017326 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016368 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015239 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.013406 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.007456 } ], "others_margin": -0.005868 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0280, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9217, "tackles": 1.4438, "tackles_won": 1.003, "clearances": 3.0349, "aerial_won": 1.2226, "total_shots": 0.5758, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 84.57, "total_pass": 33.6632, "accurate_pass": 26.6912, "duels_won": 4.2431, "total_long_balls": 2.696, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1251, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0212, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0047, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.642, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6865, "crosses_total": 1.0182, "crosses_accurate": 0.5407, "touches": 53.6624, "possession_lost": 11.9053, "dispossessed": 0.2356, "duels_lost": 4.0456, "aerial_lost": 1.222, "total_contest": 2.0469, "won_contest": 0.771, "ball_recovery": 4.27, "challenges_lost": 0.2771, "fouls": 1.0349, "fouls_drawn": 0.6599, "blocks": 0.3149, "goals": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0095, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9739, "tackles": 0.9061, "tackles_won": 0.535, "clearances": 5.4225, "aerial_won": 2.7671, "total_shots": 0.4478, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 58.6522, "accurate_pass": 51.4294, "duels_won": 4.3289, "total_long_balls": 6.842, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3204, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6384, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.8914, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5379, "crosses_total": 0.0155, "crosses_accurate": 0.0049, "touches": 71.2703, "possession_lost": 7.8127, "dispossessed": 0.0019, "duels_lost": 3.127, "aerial_lost": 1.8291, "total_contest": 0.2879, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 3.1074, "challenges_lost": 0.4778, "fouls": 0.8377, "fouls_drawn": 0.3308, "blocks": 1.6081, "goals": 0.0132, "goal_rate": 0.0132, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0521, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "shots_on_target": 0.117, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 26.2428, "total_progression": 110.2769, "progressive_carries": 1.0162, "key_pass": 0.263, "shots_off_target": 0.3308 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 46000000, "quality_factor": 0.8089, "boost_factor": 1.0095, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9651, "tackles": 0.9061, "tackles_won": 0.5302, "clearances": 5.4225, "aerial_won": 2.7671, "total_shots": 0.4438, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 58.6522, "accurate_pass": 51.4294, "duels_won": 4.3289, "total_long_balls": 6.842, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3204, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6384, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.8914, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5379, "crosses_total": 0.0154, "crosses_accurate": 0.0049, "touches": 71.2703, "possession_lost": 7.8127, "dispossessed": 0.0019, "duels_lost": 3.127, "aerial_lost": 1.8291, "total_contest": 0.2879, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 3.1074, "challenges_lost": 0.4778, "fouls": 0.8391, "fouls_drawn": 0.3413, "blocks": 1.6081, "goals": 0.0131, "goal_rate": 0.0131, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0521, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "shots_on_target": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 26.2428, "total_progression": 110.2769, "progressive_carries": 1.0162, "key_pass": 0.263, "shots_off_target": 0.3308 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9983, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.3308, "after": 0.3413 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9739, "after": 0.9651 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9651, "tackles": 0.9061, "tackles_won": 0.5302, "clearances": 5.4225, "aerial_won": 2.7671, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 58.6522, "accurate_pass": 51.4294, "duels_won": 4.3289, "total_long_balls": 6.842, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3204, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6384, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.8914, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5379, "crosses_total": 0.0154, "crosses_accurate": 0.0049, "touches": 71.2703, "possession_lost": 7.8127, "dispossessed": 0.0019, "duels_lost": 3.127, "aerial_lost": 1.8291, "total_contest": 0.2879, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 3.1074, "challenges_lost": 0.4778, "fouls": 0.8391, "fouls_drawn": 0.3413, "blocks": 1.6081, "goals": 0.0131, "goal_rate": 0.0131, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0521, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "shots_on_target": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 26.2428, "total_progression": 110.2769, "progressive_carries": 1.0162, "key_pass": 0.263, "shots_off_target": 0.3308 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9651, "tackles": 0.9061, "tackles_won": 0.5302, "clearances": 5.4225, "aerial_won": 2.7671, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 58.6522, "accurate_pass": 51.4294, "duels_won": 4.3289, "total_long_balls": 6.842, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3204, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6384, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.8914, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5379, "crosses_total": 0.0154, "crosses_accurate": 0.0049, "touches": 71.2703, "possession_lost": 7.8127, "dispossessed": 0.0019, "duels_lost": 3.127, "aerial_lost": 1.8291, "total_contest": 0.2879, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 3.1074, "challenges_lost": 0.4778, "fouls": 0.8391, "fouls_drawn": 0.3413, "blocks": 1.6081, "goals": 0.0131, "goal_rate": 0.0131, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0521, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "shots_on_target": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 26.2428, "total_progression": 110.2769, "progressive_carries": 1.0162, "key_pass": 0.263, "shots_off_target": 0.3308, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9651, "tackles": 0.9061, "tackles_won": 0.5302, "clearances": 5.4225, "aerial_won": 2.7671, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 58.6522, "accurate_pass": 51.4294, "duels_won": 4.3289, "total_long_balls": 6.842, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3204, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6384, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.8914, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5379, "crosses_total": 0.0154, "crosses_accurate": 0.0049, "touches": 71.2703, "possession_lost": 7.8127, "dispossessed": 0.0019, "duels_lost": 3.127, "aerial_lost": 1.8291, "total_contest": 0.2879, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 3.1074, "challenges_lost": 0.4778, "fouls": 0.8391, "fouls_drawn": 0.3413, "blocks": 1.6081, "goal_rate": 0.0131, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0521, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "shots_on_target": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 26.2428, "total_progression": 110.2769, "progressive_carries": 1.0162, "key_pass": 0.263, "shots_off_target": 0.3308, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.44 (squad xG sum 1.1284, xG scale 1.2725, xA scale 1.2725, team xA 0.98 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9651, "tackles": 0.9061, "tackles_won": 0.5302, "clearances": 5.4225, "aerial_won": 2.7671, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 58.6522, "accurate_pass": 51.4294, "duels_won": 4.3289, "total_long_balls": 6.842, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3204, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6384, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.8914, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5379, "crosses_total": 0.0154, "crosses_accurate": 0.0049, "touches": 71.2703, "possession_lost": 7.8127, "dispossessed": 0.0019, "duels_lost": 3.127, "aerial_lost": 1.8291, "total_contest": 0.2879, "won_contest": 0.2879, "ball_recovery": 3.1074, "challenges_lost": 0.4778, "fouls": 0.8391, "fouls_drawn": 0.3413, "blocks": 1.6081, "goal_rate": 0.0131, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0663, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0551, "ball_carries": 26.2428, "total_progression": 110.2769, "progressive_carries": 1.0162, "key_pass": 0.263, "shots_off_target": 0.3308, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.436, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1284, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7698, "team_expected_assists": 0.9795, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2725, "xa_scale": 1.2725, "opponent_lambda": 1.511, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0521, "after": 0.0663 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0247, "after": 0.0314 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.4778, "fouls": 0.8391, "fouls_drawn": 0.3413, "blocks": 1.6081, "goal_rate": 0.0131, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0663, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0551, "ball_carries": 26.2428, "total_progression": 110.2769, "progressive_carries": 1.0162, "key_pass": 0.263, "shots_off_target": 0.3308, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0641, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0641, "goal_rate": 0.0131, "scorer_weight": 0.053, "squad_weight_total": 1.5061, "weight_share": 0.0352, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.3428, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3428, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.281 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9651, "tackles": 0.9061, "tackles_won": 0.5302, "clearances": 5.4225, "aerial_won": 2.7671, "total_shots": 0.4467, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 58.6522, "accurate_pass": 51.4294, "duels_won": 4.3289, "total_long_balls": 6.842, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3204, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6384, 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"contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.026 } ], "others": 0.0814, "total": 0.6687, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.082075 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052915 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.028828 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.026056 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.026007 } ], "others_margin": 0.081329 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.070168972015381, "model_output": 7.0702, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0487 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0435 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": 0.1051, "total": 7.0702, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.048708 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.04352 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.031688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021334 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021131 } ], "others_margin": 0.105006 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0095, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1257, "tackles": 1.1523, "tackles_won": 0.6733, "clearances": 6.8054, "aerial_won": 4.0673, "total_shots": 0.6751, "rating": 7.0702, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 62.1847, "accurate_pass": 53.4167, "duels_won": 7.0541, "total_long_balls": 6.7526, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3405, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2721, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.7702, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6464, "crosses_total": 0.0184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.863, "possession_lost": 9.7579, "dispossessed": 0.1308, "duels_lost": 2.7588, "aerial_lost": 1.8743, "total_contest": 0.0728, "won_contest": 0.0728, "ball_recovery": 2.6048, "challenges_lost": 0.3688, "fouls": 0.3898, "fouls_drawn": 0.7196, "blocks": 1.3964, "goals": 0.1413, "goal_rate": 0.1413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0495, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "shots_on_target": 0.4147, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "xgot": 0.0813, "ball_carries": 24.349, "total_progression": 103.4947, "progressive_carries": 0.7089, "key_pass": 0.0827, "shots_off_target": 0.2604 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 33000000, "quality_factor": 0.7389, "boost_factor": 1.0095, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0117)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1523, "tackles_won": 0.6654, "clearances": 6.8054, "aerial_won": 4.0673, "total_shots": 0.673, "rating": 7.0702, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 62.1847, "accurate_pass": 53.4167, "duels_won": 7.0541, "total_long_balls": 6.7526, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3405, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2721, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.7702, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6464, "crosses_total": 0.0182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.863, "possession_lost": 9.7579, "dispossessed": 0.1308, "duels_lost": 2.7588, "aerial_lost": 1.8743, "total_contest": 0.0728, "won_contest": 0.0728, "ball_recovery": 2.6048, "challenges_lost": 0.3688, "fouls": 0.3852, "fouls_drawn": 0.717, "blocks": 1.3964, "goals": 0.1396, "goal_rate": 0.1396, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0495, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "shots_on_target": 0.4098, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "xgot": 0.0813, "ball_carries": 24.349, "total_progression": 103.4947, "progressive_carries": 0.7089, "key_pass": 0.0827, "shots_off_target": 0.2604 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0117, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9912, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1257, "after": 1.1125 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6733, "after": 0.6654 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1523, "tackles_won": 0.6654, "clearances": 6.8054, "aerial_won": 4.0673, "total_shots": 0.673, "rating": 7.0702, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 62.1847, "accurate_pass": 53.4167, "duels_won": 7.0541, "total_long_balls": 6.7526, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3405, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2721, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.7702, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6464, "crosses_total": 0.0182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.863, "possession_lost": 9.7579, "dispossessed": 0.1308, "duels_lost": 2.7588, "aerial_lost": 1.8743, "total_contest": 0.0728, "won_contest": 0.0728, "ball_recovery": 2.6048, "challenges_lost": 0.3688, "fouls": 0.3852, "fouls_drawn": 0.717, "blocks": 1.3964, "goals": 0.1396, "goal_rate": 0.1396, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0495, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "shots_on_target": 0.4098, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "xgot": 0.0813, "ball_carries": 24.349, "total_progression": 103.4947, "progressive_carries": 0.7089, "key_pass": 0.0827, "shots_off_target": 0.2604 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1523, "tackles_won": 0.6654, "clearances": 6.8054, "aerial_won": 4.0673, "total_shots": 0.673, "rating": 7.0702, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 62.1847, "accurate_pass": 53.4167, "duels_won": 7.0541, "total_long_balls": 6.7526, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3405, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2721, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.7702, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6464, "crosses_total": 0.0182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.863, "possession_lost": 9.7579, "dispossessed": 0.1308, "duels_lost": 2.7588, "aerial_lost": 1.8743, "total_contest": 0.0728, "won_contest": 0.0728, "ball_recovery": 2.6048, "challenges_lost": 0.3688, "fouls": 0.3852, "fouls_drawn": 0.717, "blocks": 1.3964, "goals": 0.1396, "goal_rate": 0.1396, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0495, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "shots_on_target": 0.4098, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "xgot": 0.0813, "ball_carries": 24.349, "total_progression": 103.4947, "progressive_carries": 0.7089, "key_pass": 0.0827, "shots_off_target": 0.2604, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1523, "tackles_won": 0.6654, "clearances": 6.8054, "aerial_won": 4.0673, "total_shots": 0.673, "rating": 7.0702, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 62.1847, "accurate_pass": 53.4167, "duels_won": 7.0541, "total_long_balls": 6.7526, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3405, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2721, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.7702, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6464, "crosses_total": 0.0182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.863, "possession_lost": 9.7579, "dispossessed": 0.1308, "duels_lost": 2.7588, "aerial_lost": 1.8743, "total_contest": 0.0728, "won_contest": 0.0728, "ball_recovery": 2.6048, "challenges_lost": 0.3688, "fouls": 0.3852, "fouls_drawn": 0.717, "blocks": 1.3964, "goal_rate": 0.1396, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0495, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "shots_on_target": 0.4098, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "xgot": 0.0813, "ball_carries": 24.349, "total_progression": 103.4947, "progressive_carries": 0.7089, "key_pass": 0.0827, "shots_off_target": 0.2604, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.44 (squad xG sum 1.1284, xG scale 1.2725, xA scale 1.2725, team xA 0.98 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1523, "tackles_won": 0.6654, "clearances": 6.8054, "aerial_won": 4.0673, "total_shots": 0.673, "rating": 7.0702, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 62.1847, "accurate_pass": 53.4167, "duels_won": 7.0541, "total_long_balls": 6.7526, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3405, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2721, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.7702, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6464, "crosses_total": 0.0182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.863, "possession_lost": 9.7579, "dispossessed": 0.1308, "duels_lost": 2.7588, "aerial_lost": 1.8743, "total_contest": 0.0728, "won_contest": 0.0728, "ball_recovery": 2.6048, "challenges_lost": 0.3688, "fouls": 0.3852, "fouls_drawn": 0.717, "blocks": 1.3964, "goal_rate": 0.1396, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.063, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "shots_on_target": 0.4098, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "xgot": 0.1035, "ball_carries": 24.349, "total_progression": 103.4947, "progressive_carries": 0.7089, "key_pass": 0.0827, "shots_off_target": 0.2604, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.436, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1284, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7698, "team_expected_assists": 0.9795, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2725, "xa_scale": 1.2725, "opponent_lambda": 1.511, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0495, "after": 0.063 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0381, "after": 0.0485 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1523, "tackles_won": 0.6654, "clearances": 6.8054, "aerial_won": 4.0673, "total_shots": 0.673, "rating": 7.0702, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 62.1847, "accurate_pass": 53.4167, "duels_won": 7.0541, "total_long_balls": 6.7526, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3405, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2721, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.7702, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6464, "crosses_total": 0.0182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.863, "possession_lost": 9.7579, "dispossessed": 0.1308, "duels_lost": 2.7588, "aerial_lost": 1.8743, "total_contest": 0.0728, "won_contest": 0.0728, "ball_recovery": 2.6048, "challenges_lost": 0.3688, "fouls": 0.3852, "fouls_drawn": 0.717, "blocks": 1.3964, "goal_rate": 0.1396, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.063, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "shots_on_target": 0.4098, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "xgot": 0.1035, "ball_carries": 24.349, "total_progression": 103.4947, "progressive_carries": 0.7089, "key_pass": 0.0827, "shots_off_target": 0.2604, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 848, "fifa_rank": 515.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1523, "tackles_won": 0.6654, "clearances": 6.8054, "aerial_won": 4.0673, "total_shots": 0.673, "rating": 7.0702, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 62.1847, "accurate_pass": 53.4167, "duels_won": 7.0541, "total_long_balls": 6.7526, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3405, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2721, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.7702, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6464, "crosses_total": 0.0182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.863, "possession_lost": 9.7579, "dispossessed": 0.1308, "duels_lost": 2.7588, "aerial_lost": 1.8743, "total_contest": 0.0728, "won_contest": 0.0728, "ball_recovery": 2.6048, "challenges_lost": 0.3688, "fouls": 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.44 (squad xG sum 1.1284, xG scale 1.2725, xA scale 1.2725, team xA 0.98 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2772, "goal_rate": 0.2215, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5893, "total_shots": 1.8018, "expected_assists": 0.0582, "key_pass": 0.5685, "rating": 6.7219, "minutes": 83.2, "total_pass": 17.3098, "accurate_pass": 12.3847, "duels_won": 5.1903, "total_long_balls": 0.1266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1266, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9762, "crosses_total": 0.2726, "crosses_accurate": 0.0947, "touches": 30.7136, "possession_lost": 9.0754, "dispossessed": 1.1005, "duels_lost": 5.8059, "aerial_lost": 2.0616, "total_contest": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0046, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0814, "expected_assists": 0.1083, "assists": 0.1139, "assist_rate": 0.1139, "expected_goals": 0.163, "goals": 0.1534, "goal_rate": 0.1534, "shots_on_target": 0.6081, "total_shots": 1.888, "rating": 6.8532, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 25.9806, "accurate_pass": 22.9698, "duels_won": 3.2019, "total_long_balls": 1.193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6106, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1785, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7217, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.802, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.4003, "crosses_accurate": 0.0886, "touches": 40.5098, "possession_lost": 8.0503, "dispossessed": 1.5792, "duels_lost": 5.0734, "aerial_won": 0.3971, "aerial_lost": 0.7768, "interceptions": 0.4795, "tackles_won": 0.528, "tackles": 0.9785, "clearances": 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0.6106, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1785, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7217, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.802, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.4069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0886, "touches": 40.5098, "possession_lost": 8.0503, "dispossessed": 1.5792, "duels_lost": 5.0734, "aerial_won": 0.3971, "aerial_lost": 0.7768, "interceptions": 0.4761, "tackles_won": 0.529, "tackles": 0.9785, "clearances": 0.3039, "total_contest": 1.7557, "won_contest": 0.6667, "challenges_lost": 0.9086, "fouls": 0.7384, "fouls_drawn": 1.1516, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0887, "big_chances_missed": 0.0919, "xgot": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 13.3621, "total_progression": 62.1939, "progressive_carries": 2.2661, "shots_off_target": 1.2799 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.007, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8034, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7199, "after": 0.7384 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1597, "after": 1.1516 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.4003, "after": 0.4069 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.888, "after": 1.8941 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0814, "expected_assists": 0.1083, "assists": 0.1131, "assist_rate": 0.1131, "expected_goals": 0.163, "goals": 0.157, "goal_rate": 0.157, "shots_on_target": 0.6087, "total_shots": 1.8941, "rating": 6.8532, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 25.9806, "accurate_pass": 22.9698, "duels_won": 3.2019, "total_long_balls": 1.193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6106, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1785, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7217, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.802, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.4069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0886, "touches": 40.5098, "possession_lost": 8.0503, "dispossessed": 1.5792, "duels_lost": 5.0734, "aerial_won": 0.3971, "aerial_lost": 0.7768, "interceptions": 0.4761, "tackles_won": 0.529, "tackles": 0.9785, "clearances": 0.3039, "total_contest": 1.7557, "won_contest": 0.6667, "challenges_lost": 0.9086, "fouls": 0.7384, "fouls_drawn": 1.1516, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0887, "big_chances_missed": 0.0919, "xgot": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 13.3621, "total_progression": 62.1939, "progressive_carries": 2.2661, "shots_off_target": 1.2799 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0814, "expected_assists": 0.1083, "assists": 0.1131, "assist_rate": 0.1131, "expected_goals": 0.1776, "goals": 0.171, "goal_rate": 0.171, "shots_on_target": 0.6631, "total_shots": 2.0634, "rating": 6.8532, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 25.9806, "accurate_pass": 22.9698, "duels_won": 3.2019, "total_long_balls": 1.193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6106, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1785, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7217, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.802, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.4069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0886, "touches": 40.5098, "possession_lost": 8.0503, "dispossessed": 1.5792, "duels_lost": 5.0734, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.7768, "interceptions": 0.4761, "tackles_won": 0.529, "tackles": 0.9785, "clearances": 0.3039, "total_contest": 1.7557, "won_contest": 0.6667, "challenges_lost": 0.9086, "fouls": 0.7384, "fouls_drawn": 1.1516, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0887, "big_chances_missed": 0.1001, "xgot": 0.0916, "ball_carries": 13.3621, "total_progression": 62.1939, "progressive_carries": 2.2661, "shots_off_target": 1.3943, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0894, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.541, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "James Tarkowski", "opponent_faced": "James Tarkowski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "James Tarkowski", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.541, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0894, "skill_edge": 0.0568, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.6181, "defender_skill": 0.4918, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "James Tarkowski", "market_value": 5200000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4918 } ], "xg_override": 0.1776 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3971, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8941, "after": 2.0634 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2799, "after": 1.3943 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6087, "after": 0.6631 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.163, "after": 0.1776 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.157, "after": 0.171 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0919, "after": 0.1001 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0841, "after": 0.0916 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0814, "expected_assists": 0.1083, "assist_rate": 0.1131, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1776, "goal_rate": 0.171, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6631, "total_shots": 2.0634, "rating": 6.8532, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 25.9806, "accurate_pass": 22.9698, "duels_won": 3.2019, "total_long_balls": 1.193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6106, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1785, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7217, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.802, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.4069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0886, "touches": 40.5098, "possession_lost": 8.0503, "dispossessed": 1.5792, "duels_lost": 5.0734, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.7768, "interceptions": 0.4761, "tackles_won": 0.529, "tackles": 0.9785, "clearances": 0.3039, "total_contest": 1.7557, "won_contest": 0.6667, "challenges_lost": 0.9086, "fouls": 0.7384, "fouls_drawn": 1.1516, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0887, "big_chances_missed": 0.1001, "xgot": 0.0916, "ball_carries": 13.3621, "total_progression": 62.1939, "progressive_carries": 2.2661, "shots_off_target": 1.3943, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0894, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.541, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "James Tarkowski", "opponent_faced": "James Tarkowski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.44 (squad xG sum 1.1284, xG scale 1.2725, xA scale 1.2725, team xA 0.98 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0814, "expected_assists": 0.1378, "assist_rate": 0.1131, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.226, "goal_rate": 0.171, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6631, "total_shots": 2.0634, "rating": 6.8532, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 25.9806, "accurate_pass": 22.9698, "duels_won": 3.2019, "total_long_balls": 1.193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6106, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1785, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7217, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.802, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.4069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0886, "touches": 40.5098, 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.971, "creation_factor": 1.0303 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.436, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1284, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7698, "team_expected_assists": 0.9795, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2725, "xa_scale": 1.2725, "opponent_lambda": 1.511, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1776, "after": 0.226 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1083, "after": 0.1378 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0814, "expected_assists": 0.1378, "assist_rate": 0.1131, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.226, "goal_rate": 0.171, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6631, "total_shots": 2.0634, "rating": 6.8532, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 25.9806, "accurate_pass": 22.9698, "duels_won": 3.2019, "total_long_balls": 1.193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6106, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1785, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7217, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.802, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2479, "crosses_total": 0.4069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0886, "touches": 40.5098, "possession_lost": 8.0503, "dispossessed": 1.5792, "duels_lost": 5.0734, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.7768, "interceptions": 0.4761, "tackles_won": 0.529, "tackles": 0.9785, "clearances": 0.3039, "total_contest": 1.7557, "won_contest": 0.6667, "challenges_lost": 0.9086, "fouls": 0.7384, "fouls_drawn": 1.1516, "blocks": 0.1464, 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"team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2023, "goal_rate": 0.171, "scorer_weight": 0.2194, "squad_weight_total": 1.5061, "weight_share": 0.1457, "finishing_factor": 0.971, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.3428, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3428, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.281 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0814, "expected_assists": 0.1378, "assist_rate": 0.1131, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.226, "goal_rate": 0.171, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6631, "total_shots": 2.0634, "rating": 6.8532, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 25.9806, "accurate_pass": 22.9698, "duels_won": 3.2019, "total_long_balls": 1.193, 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"name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0343 } ], "others": -0.0662, "total": 1.0246, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.15028 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.072292 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.045402 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.039045 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.034341 } ], "others_margin": -0.066353 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8356428146362305, "model_output": 6.8356, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0407 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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"expected_assists": 0.0516, "assists": 0.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0732, "expected_goals": 0.0737, "goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.2564, "total_shots": 0.9301, "rating": 6.8356, "minutes": 85.64, "total_pass": 36.5971, "accurate_pass": 29.6865, "duels_won": 7.2571, "total_long_balls": 1.5175, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9508, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6398, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4909, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.1956, "crosses_total": 0.3227, "crosses_accurate": 0.0848, "touches": 53.8, "possession_lost": 11.9443, "dispossessed": 1.4391, "duels_lost": 7.4856, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.273, "interceptions": 1.4449, "tackles_won": 1.2957, "tackles": 1.7219, "clearances": 1.6558, "total_contest": 2.3091, "won_contest": 1.4824, "challenges_lost": 1.1038, "fouls": 2.2108, "fouls_drawn": 0.7198, "blocks": 0.1925, "big_chances_created": 0.0704, "big_chances_missed": 0.0057, "xgot": 0.0707, "ball_carries": 12.7575, 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], "xg_override": 0.0737 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 3.3331, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0305, "after": 0.9301 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7464, "after": 0.6737 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2841, "after": 0.2564 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0846, "after": 0.0764 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0817, "after": 0.0737 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0783, "after": 0.0707 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.721, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.0732, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0737, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2564, "total_shots": 0.9301, "rating": 6.8356, "minutes": 85.64, "total_pass": 36.5971, "accurate_pass": 29.6865, 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"matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "James Garner", "opponent_faced": "James Garner", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.44 (squad xG sum 1.1284, xG scale 1.2725, xA scale 1.2725, team xA 0.98 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.721, "expected_assists": 0.0657, "assist_rate": 0.0732, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0938, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2564, "total_shots": 0.9301, "rating": 6.8356, "minutes": 85.64, "total_pass": 36.5971, "accurate_pass": 29.6865, "duels_won": 7.2571, "total_long_balls": 1.5175, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9508, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6398, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4909, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.1956, "crosses_total": 0.3227, "crosses_accurate": 0.0848, "touches": 53.8, "possession_lost": 11.9443, "dispossessed": 1.4391, "duels_lost": 7.4856, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.273, "interceptions": 1.4449, "tackles_won": 1.2957, "tackles": 1.7219, "clearances": 1.6558, "total_contest": 2.3091, "won_contest": 1.4824, "challenges_lost": 1.1038, "fouls": 2.2108, "fouls_drawn": 0.7198, "blocks": 0.1925, "big_chances_created": 0.0704, "big_chances_missed": 0.0057, "xgot": 0.09, "ball_carries": 12.7575, "total_progression": 30.2709, "progressive_carries": 0.7056, "shots_off_target": 0.6737, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9026, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.354, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "James 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 170, "combined_rank_score": 146.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 15.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.3, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 278.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9193, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lewis Hall", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Igor Vujačić", "ranking": 165 }, { "player_name": "César Montes", "ranking": 166 }, { "player_name": "Reis", "ranking": 167 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Felipe Méndez", "ranking": 168 }, { "player_name": "Serhou 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"possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0134 } ], "others": 0.0294, "total": 0.6465, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059604 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024548 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.019386 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019015 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013362 } ], "others_margin": 0.029322 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.919312000274658, "model_output": 6.9193, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0657 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0154 } ], "others": 0.0024, "total": 6.9193, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.065655 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032025 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020275 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.01551 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015415 } ], "others_margin": 0.002483 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2264, "tackles": 1.933, "tackles_won": 1.2852, "clearances": 3.5284, "aerial_won": 0.9595, "total_shots": 0.6539, "rating": 6.9193, "minutes": 88.75, "total_pass": 49.2393, "accurate_pass": 41.7055, "duels_won": 5.2576, "total_long_balls": 6.097, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6789, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8812, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.8243, "crosses_total": 3.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.8681, "touches": 80.9166, "possession_lost": 17.028, "dispossessed": 1.8847, "duels_lost": 6.5898, "aerial_lost": 1.485, "total_contest": 2.5178, "won_contest": 1.1483, "ball_recovery": 6.4468, "challenges_lost": 1.1239, "fouls": 0.7338, "fouls_drawn": 1.7102, "blocks": 0.713, "goals": 0.1042, 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"name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.1034 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0259 } ], "others": -0.1747, "total": 0.0598, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.328779 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.244475 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.103423 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.047759 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.025903 } ], "others_margin": -0.1748 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.786334037780762, "model_output": 6.7863, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1033 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0732 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0339, "total": 6.7863, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.103296 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.073231 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027704 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.0114 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.009198 } ], "others_margin": -0.033898 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his 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5.5328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9452, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5499, "crosses_total": 0.2663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.8252, "possession_lost": 2.2675, "dispossessed": 0.2693, "duels_lost": 0.9146, "aerial_won": 0.6053, "aerial_lost": 0.5667, "interceptions": 0.4681, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2867, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3048, "won_contest": 0.3048, "challenges_lost": 0.0786, "fouls": 0.0015, "fouls_drawn": 0.0029, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0054, "total_progression": 7.1405, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2372, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.4 to 23.1 expected 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-0.414849 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.211324 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.196234 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.072081 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.06835 } ], "others_margin": 0.041495 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.08541150391101837, "model_output": 0.0854, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1433 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0589 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0052 } ], "others": 0.0009, "total": 0.0854, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.599446 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.411911 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.199894 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.178963 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.064048 } ], "others_margin": 0.011978 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.328606516122818, "model_output": 0.3286, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3377 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2168 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0669 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0405 } ], "others": -0.0345, "total": 0.3286, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.337663 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.216764 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.066902 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040925 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.040542 } ], "others_margin": -0.034616 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.652072906494141, "model_output": 6.6521, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0633 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.052 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0354, "total": 6.6521, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063327 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051962 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034819 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011541 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.008343 } ], "others_margin": -0.03534 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0290, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2191, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assists": 0.0309, "assist_rate": 0.0309, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goals": 0.0387, "goal_rate": 0.0387, "shots_on_target": 0.0879, "total_shots": 0.3382, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.449, "accurate_pass": 2.109, "duels_won": 1.718, "total_long_balls": 0.34, "accurate_long_balls": 0.34, "total_own_half_passes": 1.029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.029, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.42, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.08, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.565, "possession_lost": 1.598, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.309, "aerial_won": 0.689, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.629, "tackles": 1.029, "clearances": 1.089, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.34, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.14, "total_progression": 0.8936, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2503 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.029, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0054)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2191, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assists": 0.0307, "assist_rate": 0.0307, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goals": 0.0385, "goal_rate": 0.0385, "shots_on_target": 0.0874, "total_shots": 0.3364, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.449, "accurate_pass": 2.109, "duels_won": 1.718, "total_long_balls": 0.34, "accurate_long_balls": 0.34, "total_own_half_passes": 1.029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.029, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.42, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.08, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.565, "possession_lost": 1.598, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.309, "aerial_won": 0.689, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6299, "tackles": 1.029, "clearances": 1.089, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.3382, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.14, "total_progression": 0.8936, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2503 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0054, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1586, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.3 to 18.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goals": 0.05, "goal_rate": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.53, "projection_minutes": 14.27, "minutes_scale": 1.2985, "appearance_probability": 0.71 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goals": 0.05, "goal_rate": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goal_rate": 0.05, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.44 (squad xG sum 1.1284, xG scale 1.2725, xA scale 1.2725, team xA 0.98 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.05, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1834, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.436, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1284, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7698, "team_expected_assists": 0.9795, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2725, "xa_scale": 1.2725, "opponent_lambda": 1.511, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.71 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.05, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1834, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4363, "fifa_rank": 3930.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.05, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, 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"others": -0.0254, "total": 6.7109, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076517 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.022644 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.015205 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.012911 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011191 } ], "others_margin": -0.025474 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0521, quality 0.853)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0649, "goals": 0.0843, "goal_rate": 0.0843, "shots_on_target": 0.2913, "total_shots": 0.6958, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "key_pass": 0.4627, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 13.8154, "accurate_pass": 10.1933, "duels_won": 2.9245, "total_long_balls": 0.5248, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5248, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1678, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0036, "crosses_total": 1.3719, "crosses_accurate": 0.2411, "touches": 23.7654, "possession_lost": 7.6475, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 3.9405, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.4815, "won_contest": 1.1978, "ball_recovery": 1.5344, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 0.8472, "fouls_drawn": 0.8897, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3792, "tackles": 0.6629, "clearances": 0.4823, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4823, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 7.4654, "total_progression": 33.9917, "progressive_carries": 1.725, "shots_off_target": 0.4044 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 60000000, "quality_factor": 0.8526, "boost_factor": 1.0521, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.3 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0783, "goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.94, "projection_minutes": 22.33, "minutes_scale": 1.2063, "appearance_probability": 0.633 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0783, "goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0783, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.44 (squad xG sum 1.1284, xG scale 1.2725, xA scale 1.2725, team xA 0.98 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1824, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.436, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1284, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7698, "team_expected_assists": 0.9795, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2725, "xa_scale": 1.2725, "opponent_lambda": 1.511, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.633 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0783, "after": 0.0631 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0513, "after": 0.0413 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1824, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1472, "fifa_rank": 1153.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, 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"eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.3428, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3428, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.281 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 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true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.033, "squad_weight_total": 1.0527, "weight_share": 0.0314, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.633, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jacob Murphy", "weight": 0.1521, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1521, "runner_up": "Joe Willock", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.142, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Harvey Barnes" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nick Woltemade": { "player_id": 980623, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 198, "market_value": 59000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0378, "total": 6.638, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057705 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011514 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010668 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009119 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008465 } ], "others_margin": -0.037906 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0133, quality 0.850)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0658, "goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.0717, "shots_on_target": 0.1958, "total_shots": 0.5969, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.3727, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.5255, "accurate_pass": 3.4513, "duels_won": 1.7403, "total_long_balls": 0.084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.7405, "possession_lost": 2.1885, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 1.7965, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.6234, "won_contest": 0.2733, "ball_recovery": 0.6323, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.7265, "assists": 0.1893, "assist_rate": 0.1893, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1504, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0713, "big_chances_created": 0.3501, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1893, "ball_carries": 1.566, "total_progression": 5.9238, "progressive_carries": 0.2519, "shots_off_target": 0.4011 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 59000000, "quality_factor": 0.8503, "boost_factor": 1.0133, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0658, "goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0716, "shots_on_target": 0.1956, "total_shots": 0.5973, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.3727, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.5255, "accurate_pass": 3.4513, "duels_won": 1.7403, "total_long_balls": 0.084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.7405, "possession_lost": 2.1885, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 1.7965, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.6234, "won_contest": 0.2733, "ball_recovery": 0.6323, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.2526, "fouls_drawn": 0.728, "assists": 0.1902, "assist_rate": 0.1902, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1502, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0713, "big_chances_created": 0.3501, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.566, "total_progression": 5.9238, "progressive_carries": 0.2519, "shots_off_target": 0.4011 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2053, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.5 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0823, "goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.5018, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.12, "projection_minutes": 18.48, "minutes_scale": 1.2511, "appearance_probability": 0.752 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0823, "goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.5018, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0823, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.5018, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.44 (squad xG sum 1.1284, xG scale 1.2725, xA scale 1.2725, team xA 0.98 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.5018, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0552, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.436, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1284, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7698, "team_expected_assists": 0.9795, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2725, "xa_scale": 1.2725, "opponent_lambda": 1.511, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.752 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.5018, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0552, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 905, "fifa_rank": 690.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.5018, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0748, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0552, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0748, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "scorer_weight": 0.0831, "squad_weight_total": 1.5061, "weight_share": 0.0552, "finishing_factor": 1.0552, "appearance_weight": 0.752, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.3428, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3428, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.281 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.5018, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0748, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0457, "finishing_factor": 1.0552, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, 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"contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0249, "total": 0.3678, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.473357 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.056603 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.050589 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.046495 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.032111 } ], "others_margin": -0.065403 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.637957572937012, "model_output": 6.638, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0577 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0378, "total": 6.638, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057705 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011514 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010668 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009119 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008465 } ], "others_margin": -0.037906 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0133, quality 0.850)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0658, "goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.0717, "shots_on_target": 0.1958, "total_shots": 0.5969, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.3727, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.5255, "accurate_pass": 3.4513, "duels_won": 1.7403, "total_long_balls": 0.084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.7405, "possession_lost": 2.1885, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 1.7965, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.6234, "won_contest": 0.2733, "ball_recovery": 0.6323, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.7265, "assists": 0.1893, "assist_rate": 0.1893, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1504, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0713, "big_chances_created": 0.3501, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1893, "ball_carries": 1.566, "total_progression": 5.9238, "progressive_carries": 0.2519, "shots_off_target": 0.4011 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 59000000, "quality_factor": 0.8503, "boost_factor": 1.0133, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0658, "goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0716, "shots_on_target": 0.1956, "total_shots": 0.5973, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.3727, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.5255, "accurate_pass": 3.4513, "duels_won": 1.7403, "total_long_balls": 0.084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.7405, "possession_lost": 2.1885, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 1.7965, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.6234, "won_contest": 0.2733, "ball_recovery": 0.6323, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.2526, "fouls_drawn": 0.728, "assists": 0.1902, "assist_rate": 0.1902, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1502, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0713, "big_chances_created": 0.3501, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.566, "total_progression": 5.9238, "progressive_carries": 0.2519, "shots_off_target": 0.4011 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2053, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.5 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0823, "goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.5018, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.12, "projection_minutes": 18.48, "minutes_scale": 1.2511, "appearance_probability": 0.752 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0823, "goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.5018, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0823, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.5018, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.44 (squad xG sum 1.1284, xG scale 1.2725, xA scale 1.2725, team xA 0.98 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.5018, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0552, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.436, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1284, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7698, "team_expected_assists": 0.9795, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2725, "xa_scale": 1.2725, "opponent_lambda": 1.511, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.752 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.5018, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0552, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 905, "fifa_rank": 690.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.5018, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0748, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0552, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0748, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "scorer_weight": 0.0831, "squad_weight_total": 1.5061, "weight_share": 0.0552, "finishing_factor": 1.0552, "appearance_weight": 0.752, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.3428, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3428, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.281 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2447, "total_shots": 0.7473, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "key_pass": 0.4663, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3377 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2168 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0669 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0405 } ], "others": -0.0345, "total": 0.3286, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.337663 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.216764 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.066902 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040925 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.040542 } ], "others_margin": -0.034616 } }, { 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"margin": -0.011541 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.008343 } ], "others_margin": -0.03534 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0290, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2191, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assists": 0.0309, "assist_rate": 0.0309, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goals": 0.0387, "goal_rate": 0.0387, "shots_on_target": 0.0879, "total_shots": 0.3382, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.449, "accurate_pass": 2.109, "duels_won": 1.718, "total_long_balls": 0.34, "accurate_long_balls": 0.34, "total_own_half_passes": 1.029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.029, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.42, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.08, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.565, "possession_lost": 1.598, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.309, "aerial_won": 0.689, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.629, "tackles": 1.029, "clearances": 1.089, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.34, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.14, "total_progression": 0.8936, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2503 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.029, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0054)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2191, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assists": 0.0307, "assist_rate": 0.0307, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goals": 0.0385, "goal_rate": 0.0385, "shots_on_target": 0.0874, "total_shots": 0.3364, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.449, "accurate_pass": 2.109, "duels_won": 1.718, "total_long_balls": 0.34, "accurate_long_balls": 0.34, "total_own_half_passes": 1.029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.029, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.42, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.08, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.565, "possession_lost": 1.598, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.309, "aerial_won": 0.689, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6299, "tackles": 1.029, "clearances": 1.089, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.3382, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.14, "total_progression": 0.8936, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2503 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0054, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1586, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.3 to 18.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goals": 0.05, "goal_rate": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.53, "projection_minutes": 14.27, "minutes_scale": 1.2985, "appearance_probability": 0.71 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goals": 0.05, "goal_rate": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goal_rate": 0.05, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.44 (squad xG sum 1.1284, xG scale 1.2725, xA scale 1.2725, team xA 0.98 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.05, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1834, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.436, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1284, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7698, "team_expected_assists": 0.9795, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2725, "xa_scale": 1.2725, "opponent_lambda": 1.511, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.71 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.05, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1834, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4363, "fifa_rank": 3930.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.05, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0305, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1834, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0305, "goal_rate": 0.05, "scorer_weight": 0.0369, "squad_weight_total": 1.5061, "weight_share": 0.0245, "finishing_factor": 1.1834, "appearance_weight": 0.71, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.3428, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3428, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.281 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.05, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0305, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0121, "finishing_factor": 1.1834, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0121, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "provider_weight": 0.0153, "squad_weight_total": 1.0527, "weight_share": 0.0145, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.71, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jacob Murphy", "weight": 0.1521, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1521, "runner_up": "Joe Willock", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.142, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Harvey Barnes" ] } ] } } ] }, "Matías Fernández-Pardo": { "player_id": 1149144, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 183, "market_value": 60000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0783, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.44 (squad xG sum 1.1284, xG scale 1.2725, xA scale 1.2725, team xA 0.98 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1824, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.436, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1284, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7698, "team_expected_assists": 0.9795, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2725, "xa_scale": 1.2725, "opponent_lambda": 1.511, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.633 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0783, "after": 0.0631 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0513, "after": 0.0413 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1824, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1472, "fifa_rank": 1153.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0601, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1824, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0601, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "scorer_weight": 0.0746, "squad_weight_total": 1.5061, "weight_share": 0.0495, "finishing_factor": 1.1824, "appearance_weight": 0.633, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.3428, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3428, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.281 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.79, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0601, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.04, "finishing_factor": 1.1824, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.033, "squad_weight_total": 1.0527, "weight_share": 0.0314, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.633, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jacob Murphy", "weight": 0.1521, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1521, "runner_up": "Joe Willock", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.142, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Harvey Barnes" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.44, "expected_assists": 0.98, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 436, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.87, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5 } }, "Everton": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Tyrique George": { "player_id": 1403061, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 181, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1081, "goal_rate": 0.0887, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1373, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.895, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 11.1854, "dispossessed": 1.3957, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0994, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 102, "progressive_carries": 5, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8325, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman", "opponent_faced": "Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1025, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1283, "finishing_factor": 1.0358, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363891.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0303, "expected_assists": 0.2284, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2284 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1703 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1015 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.1045 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0847 } ], "others": 0.0303, "total": 1.4114, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.285358 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.169774 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.089026 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.084048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.063276 } ], "others_margin": 0.021709 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.894992351531982, "model_output": 6.895, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0601 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": 0.0139, "total": 6.895, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060116 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.022606 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021614 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.0126 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009142 } ], "others_margin": 0.013864 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goals": 0.1078, "goal_rate": 0.1078, "shots_on_target": 0.3778, "total_shots": 1.4255, "expected_assists": 0.1066, "key_pass": 1.4251, "rating": 6.895, "minutes": 77.75, "total_pass": 25.2648, "accurate_pass": 21.3035, "duels_won": 3.8147, "total_long_balls": 1.5551, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8895, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8077, "crosses_total": 2.519, "crosses_accurate": 0.4498, "touches": 41.5864, "possession_lost": 11.1854, "dispossessed": 1.3957, "duels_lost": 4.3576, "aerial_lost": 0.5942, "total_contest": 3.2794, "won_contest": 2.0057, "ball_recovery": 2.7586, "challenges_lost": 0.7024, "fouls": 0.3915, "fouls_drawn": 0.6764, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5375, "tackles_won": 0.6357, "tackles": 0.8788, "clearances": 0.3336, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4498, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0927, "offsides": 0.3026, "ball_carries": 19.9997, "total_progression": 102.4608, "progressive_carries": 4.9544, "shots_off_target": 1.0477 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0124)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goals": 0.1065, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "shots_on_target": 0.3798, "total_shots": 1.4546, "expected_assists": 0.1066, "key_pass": 1.4251, "rating": 6.895, "minutes": 77.75, "total_pass": 25.2648, "accurate_pass": 21.3035, "duels_won": 3.8147, "total_long_balls": 1.5551, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8895, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8077, "crosses_total": 2.5146, "crosses_accurate": 0.4498, "touches": 41.5864, "possession_lost": 11.1854, "dispossessed": 1.3957, "duels_lost": 4.3576, "aerial_lost": 0.5942, "total_contest": 3.2794, "won_contest": 2.0057, "ball_recovery": 2.7586, "challenges_lost": 0.7024, "fouls": 0.3867, "fouls_drawn": 0.6747, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5442, "tackles_won": 0.6345, "tackles": 0.8788, "clearances": 0.3336, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4498, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0927, "offsides": 0.3055, "ball_carries": 19.9997, "total_progression": 102.4608, "progressive_carries": 4.9544, "shots_off_target": 1.0477 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0124, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8639, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4255, "after": 1.4546 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5375, "after": 0.5442 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goals": 0.1065, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "shots_on_target": 0.3798, "total_shots": 1.4546, "expected_assists": 0.1066, "key_pass": 1.4251, "rating": 6.895, "minutes": 77.75, "total_pass": 25.2648, "accurate_pass": 21.3035, "duels_won": 3.8147, "total_long_balls": 1.5551, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8895, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8077, "crosses_total": 2.5146, "crosses_accurate": 0.4498, "touches": 41.5864, "possession_lost": 11.1854, "dispossessed": 1.3957, "duels_lost": 4.3576, "aerial_lost": 0.5942, "total_contest": 3.2794, "won_contest": 2.0057, "ball_recovery": 2.7586, "challenges_lost": 0.7024, "fouls": 0.3867, "fouls_drawn": 0.6747, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5442, "tackles_won": 0.6345, "tackles": 0.8788, "clearances": 0.3336, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4498, 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] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0839, "goal_rate": 0.0887, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3162, "total_shots": 1.211, "expected_assists": 0.1066, "key_pass": 1.4251, "rating": 6.895, "minutes": 77.75, "total_pass": 25.2648, "accurate_pass": 21.3035, "duels_won": 3.8147, "total_long_balls": 1.5551, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8895, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8077, "crosses_total": 2.5146, "crosses_accurate": 0.4498, "touches": 41.5864, "possession_lost": 11.1854, "dispossessed": 1.3957, "duels_lost": 4.3576, "aerial_lost": 0.5942, "total_contest": 3.2794, "won_contest": 2.0057, "ball_recovery": 2.7586, "challenges_lost": 0.7024, "fouls": 0.3867, "fouls_drawn": 0.6747, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5442, "tackles_won": 0.6345, "tackles": 0.8788, "clearances": 0.3336, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4498, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0772, "offsides": 0.3055, "ball_carries": 19.9997, "total_progression": 102.4608, "progressive_carries": 4.9544, "shots_off_target": 0.8722, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8325, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman", "opponent_faced": "Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1732, xG scale 1.2880, xA scale 1.2880, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1081, "goal_rate": 0.0887, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3162, "total_shots": 1.211, "expected_assists": 0.1373, "key_pass": 1.4251, "rating": 6.895, "minutes": 77.75, "total_pass": 25.2648, "accurate_pass": 21.3035, "duels_won": 3.8147, "total_long_balls": 1.5551, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8895, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8077, "crosses_total": 2.5146, "crosses_accurate": 0.4498, "touches": 41.5864, "possession_lost": 11.1854, "dispossessed": 1.3957, "duels_lost": 4.3576, "aerial_lost": 0.5942, "total_contest": 3.2794, "won_contest": 2.0057, "ball_recovery": 2.7586, "challenges_lost": 0.7024, "fouls": 0.3867, "fouls_drawn": 0.6747, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5442, "tackles_won": 0.6345, "tackles": 0.8788, "clearances": 0.3336, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4498, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0994, "offsides": 0.3055, "ball_carries": 19.9997, "total_progression": 102.4608, "progressive_carries": 4.9544, "shots_off_target": 0.8722, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8325, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman", "opponent_faced": "Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0358, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.511, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1732, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9245, "team_expected_assists": 1.1907, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.288, "xa_scale": 1.288, "opponent_lambda": 1.436, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0839, "after": 0.1081 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1066, "after": 0.1373 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5017 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1674 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0661 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0462 } ], "others": 0.1527, "total": 1.9655, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.501737 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.167365 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.066072 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.046499 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.046156 } ], "others_margin": 0.152738 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.175826549530029, "model_output": 7.1758, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { 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"Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0101, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9391, "expected_assists": 0.1612, "assists": 0.1358, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "expected_goals": 0.1775, "goals": 0.1938, "goal_rate": 0.1938, "shots_on_target": 0.6687, "total_shots": 1.9854, "rating": 7.1758, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 37.5251, "accurate_pass": 32.381, "duels_won": 4.5761, "total_long_balls": 2.6639, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2402, "total_own_half_passes": 11.068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.173, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.457, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.208, "crosses_total": 3.6665, "crosses_accurate": 0.644, "touches": 56.5687, "possession_lost": 12.491, "dispossessed": 2.0066, "duels_lost": 4.6237, "aerial_won": 0.4462, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.2851, "tackles_won": 0.6698, "tackles": 1.3922, "clearances": 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1.2402, "total_own_half_passes": 11.068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.173, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.457, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.208, "crosses_total": 3.674, "crosses_accurate": 0.644, "touches": 56.5687, "possession_lost": 12.491, "dispossessed": 2.0066, "duels_lost": 4.6237, "aerial_won": 0.4462, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.2823, "tackles_won": 0.6777, "tackles": 1.3922, "clearances": 1.1121, "total_contest": 1.7293, "won_contest": 0.8825, "challenges_lost": 0.7248, "fouls": 0.5997, "fouls_drawn": 1.8572, "blocks": 0.2761, "big_chances_created": 0.4852, "big_chances_missed": 0.2224, "xgot": 0.1758, "ball_carries": 19.0936, "total_progression": 89.9108, "progressive_carries": 3.2397, "shots_off_target": 1.3167 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.983, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", 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26.457, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.208, "crosses_total": 3.674, "crosses_accurate": 0.644, "touches": 56.5687, "possession_lost": 12.491, "dispossessed": 2.0066, "duels_lost": 4.6237, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.2823, "tackles_won": 0.6777, "tackles": 1.3922, "clearances": 1.1121, "total_contest": 1.7293, "won_contest": 0.8825, "challenges_lost": 0.7248, "fouls": 0.5997, "fouls_drawn": 1.8572, "blocks": 0.2761, "big_chances_created": 0.4852, "big_chances_missed": 0.2099, "xgot": 0.1659, "ball_carries": 19.0936, "total_progression": 89.9108, "progressive_carries": 3.2397, "shots_off_target": 1.2428, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9439, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lewis Hall", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Hall", "antagonist_source": 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0.9245, "team_expected_assists": 1.1907, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.288, "xa_scale": 1.288, "opponent_lambda": 1.436, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1675, "after": 0.2157 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1612, "after": 0.2076 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0214 } ], "others": 0.039, "total": 7.1538, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.095462 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.087361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029564 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.023467 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.02139 } ], "others_margin": 0.039139 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 45, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2181, "expected_assists": 0.1222, "assists": 0.0818, "assist_rate": 0.0818, "expected_goals": 0.0617, "goals": 0.0639, "goal_rate": 0.0639, "shots_on_target": 0.2829, "total_shots": 0.87, "rating": 7.1538, "minutes": 87.48, "total_pass": 53.506, "accurate_pass": 47.5922, "duels_won": 4.083, "total_long_balls": 4.1608, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8759, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2608, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.2453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.3766, "crosses_total": 4.3557, "crosses_accurate": 1.1338, "touches": 70.3483, "possession_lost": 10.8039, "dispossessed": 0.1459, "duels_lost": 3.5527, "aerial_won": 0.3361, "aerial_lost": 0.2731, "interceptions": 0.8393, "tackles_won": 1.4272, "tackles": 2.6595, "clearances": 1.6134, "total_contest": 0.5613, "won_contest": 0.102, "challenges_lost": 1.4109, "fouls": 1.2685, "fouls_drawn": 1.0267, "blocks": 0.4594, "big_chances_created": 0.1829, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0371, "ball_carries": 18.1028, "total_progression": 49.8091, "progressive_carries": 0.8069, "shots_off_target": 0.587 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 53000000, "quality_factor": 0.834, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0034)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2181, "expected_assists": 0.1222, "assists": 0.0815, "assist_rate": 0.0815, "expected_goals": 0.0617, "goals": 0.0637, "goal_rate": 0.0637, "shots_on_target": 0.2819, "total_shots": 0.867, "rating": 7.1538, "minutes": 87.48, "total_pass": 53.506, "accurate_pass": 47.5922, "duels_won": 4.083, "total_long_balls": 4.1608, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8759, 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"name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.077038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.033545 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.021816 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.014117 } ], "others_margin": -0.010286 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.849750518798828, "model_output": 6.8498, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0237, "total": 6.8497, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033497 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.012874 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012632 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009476 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008267 } ], "others_margin": -0.023652 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0127, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8552, "expected_assists": 0.0778, "assists": 0.0687, "assist_rate": 0.0687, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "shots_on_target": 0.2999, "total_shots": 0.9722, "rating": 6.8498, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 30.3848, "accurate_pass": 25.6407, "duels_won": 4.409, "total_long_balls": 1.8321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9262, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4971, "crosses_total": 0.1861, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2556, "possession_lost": 8.7707, "dispossessed": 1.0918, "duels_lost": 4.1449, "aerial_won": 0.5232, "aerial_lost": 1.0277, "interceptions": 0.7179, "tackles_won": 0.9569, "tackles": 2.0139, "clearances": 1.7544, "total_contest": 1.1892, "won_contest": 0.7828, "challenges_lost": 0.6649, "fouls": 0.9541, "fouls_drawn": 1.0892, "blocks": 0.5775, "big_chances_created": 0.172, "big_chances_missed": 0.3388, "xgot": 0.0074, "ball_carries": 14.8939, "total_progression": 38.4897, "progressive_carries": 1.0066, "shots_off_target": 0.6722 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0127, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0158)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8552, "expected_assists": 0.0778, "assists": 0.0754, "assist_rate": 0.0754, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.0692, "goal_rate": 0.0692, "shots_on_target": 0.2952, "total_shots": 0.9568, "rating": 6.8498, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 30.3848, "accurate_pass": 25.6407, "duels_won": 4.409, "total_long_balls": 1.8321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9262, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4971, "crosses_total": 0.191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2556, "possession_lost": 8.7707, "dispossessed": 1.0918, "duels_lost": 4.1449, "aerial_won": 0.5232, "aerial_lost": 1.0277, "interceptions": 0.7379, "tackles_won": 0.9652, "tackles": 2.0139, "clearances": 1.7544, "total_contest": 1.1892, "won_contest": 0.7828, "challenges_lost": 0.6649, "fouls": 0.9781, "fouls_drawn": 1.0876, "blocks": 0.5775, "big_chances_created": 0.172, "big_chances_missed": 0.3388, "xgot": 0.0074, "ball_carries": 14.8939, "total_progression": 38.4897, "progressive_carries": 1.0066, "shots_off_target": 0.6722 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0158, "history_matches": 21, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9396, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9541, "after": 0.9781 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7179, "after": 0.7379 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9722, "after": 0.9568 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9569, "after": 0.9652 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.0687, "after": 0.0754 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8552, "expected_assists": 0.0778, "assists": 0.0754, "assist_rate": 0.0754, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.0692, "goal_rate": 0.0692, "shots_on_target": 0.2952, "total_shots": 0.9674, "rating": 6.8498, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 30.3848, "accurate_pass": 25.6407, "duels_won": 4.409, "total_long_balls": 1.8321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9262, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4971, "crosses_total": 0.191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2556, "possession_lost": 8.7707, "dispossessed": 1.0918, "duels_lost": 4.1449, "aerial_won": 0.5232, "aerial_lost": 1.0277, "interceptions": 0.7379, "tackles_won": 0.9652, "tackles": 2.0139, "clearances": 1.7544, "total_contest": 1.1892, "won_contest": 0.7828, "challenges_lost": 0.6649, "fouls": 0.9781, "fouls_drawn": 1.0876, "blocks": 0.5775, "big_chances_created": 0.172, "big_chances_missed": 0.3388, "xgot": 0.0074, "ball_carries": 14.8939, "total_progression": 38.4897, "progressive_carries": 1.0066, "shots_off_target": 0.6722 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8552, "expected_assists": 0.0778, "assists": 0.0754, "assist_rate": 0.0754, "expected_goals": 0.0845, "goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 1.0169, "rating": 6.8498, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 30.3848, "accurate_pass": 25.6407, "duels_won": 4.409, "total_long_balls": 1.8321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9262, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4971, "crosses_total": 0.191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2556, "possession_lost": 8.7707, "dispossessed": 1.0918, "duels_lost": 4.1449, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.0277, "interceptions": 0.7379, "tackles_won": 0.9652, "tackles": 2.0139, "clearances": 1.7544, "total_contest": 1.1892, "won_contest": 0.7828, "challenges_lost": 0.6649, "fouls": 0.9781, "fouls_drawn": 1.0876, "blocks": 0.5775, "big_chances_created": 0.172, "big_chances_missed": 0.3561, "xgot": 0.0078, "ball_carries": 14.8939, "total_progression": 38.4897, "progressive_carries": 1.0066, "shots_off_target": 0.7066, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0512, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Joelinton", "opponent_faced": "Joelinton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Joelinton", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0512, "skill_edge": 0.0388, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.761, "defender_skill": 0.6747, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Joelinton", "market_value": 21000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.6747 } ], "xg_override": 0.0845 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5232, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9674, "after": 1.0169 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6722, "after": 0.7066 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3388, "after": 0.3561 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2952, "after": 0.3103 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8552, "expected_assists": 0.0778, "assist_rate": 0.0754, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0845, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 1.0169, "rating": 6.8498, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 30.3848, "accurate_pass": 25.6407, "duels_won": 4.409, "total_long_balls": 1.8321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9262, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4971, "crosses_total": 0.191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2556, "possession_lost": 8.7707, "dispossessed": 1.0918, "duels_lost": 4.1449, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.0277, 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1.1892, "won_contest": 0.7828, "challenges_lost": 0.6649, "fouls": 0.9781, "fouls_drawn": 1.0876, "blocks": 0.5775, "big_chances_created": 0.172, "big_chances_missed": 0.3561, "xgot": 0.01, "ball_carries": 14.8939, "total_progression": 38.4897, "progressive_carries": 1.0066, "shots_off_target": 0.7066, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0512, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Joelinton", "opponent_faced": "Joelinton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9123, "creation_factor": 0.9812 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.511, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1732, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9245, "team_expected_assists": 1.1907, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.288, "xa_scale": 1.288, "opponent_lambda": 1.436, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0845, "after": 0.1088 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0778, "after": 0.1002 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8552, "expected_assists": 0.1002, "assist_rate": 0.0754, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1088, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 1.0169, "rating": 6.8498, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 30.3848, "accurate_pass": 25.6407, "duels_won": 4.409, "total_long_balls": 1.8321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9262, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4971, "crosses_total": 0.191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2556, "possession_lost": 8.7707, "dispossessed": 1.0918, "duels_lost": 4.1449, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.0277, "interceptions": 0.7379, "tackles_won": 0.9652, "tackles": 2.0139, 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0.022426 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018075 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015005 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011811 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.011056 } ], "others_margin": -0.015444 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1732, xG scale 1.2880, xA scale 1.2880, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0619, "tackles": 2.0676, "tackles_won": 1.26, "clearances": 2.7239, "aerial_won": 1.48, "total_shots": 0.3841, "rating": 6.7498, "minutes": 87.67, "total_pass": 41.0293, "accurate_pass": 34.4696, "duels_won": 5.6194, "total_long_balls": 3.882, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1052, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.943, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5267, "crosses_total": 2.1958, "crosses_accurate": 0.3933, "touches": 64.87, "possession_lost": 13.0993, "dispossessed": 0.1499, "duels_lost": 3.1352, "aerial_lost": 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0.06448 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02825 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.016375 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.014183 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.013727 } ], "others_margin": 0.011095 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.834702491760254, "model_output": 6.8347, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.01 } ], "others": -0.0017, "total": 6.8347, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014875 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012805 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012106 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.012038 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.010021 } ], "others_margin": -0.001711 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0207, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2311, "tackles": 1.4308, "tackles_won": 0.8821, "clearances": 5.8157, "aerial_won": 2.1581, "total_shots": 0.6424, "rating": 6.8347, "minutes": 89.6, "total_pass": 50.209, "accurate_pass": 43.4838, "duels_won": 4.2976, "total_long_balls": 5.7655, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7512, "total_own_half_passes": 28.4612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.702, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7817, "crosses_total": 0.3679, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.1775, "possession_lost": 8.1301, "dispossessed": 0.178, "duels_lost": 2.9623, "aerial_lost": 1.7398, "total_contest": 0.1534, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.1974, "challenges_lost": 0.4985, "fouls": 0.5631, "fouls_drawn": 0.8179, "blocks": 1.3501, "goals": 0.0375, 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{ "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0434 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0401 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0178 } ], "others": 0.031, "total": 0.6072, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.043378 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.04013 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.030536 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.024228 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.017798 } ], "others_margin": 0.030956 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.081981658935547, "model_output": 7.082, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.369, "tackles": 1.5157, "tackles_won": 0.9476, "clearances": 5.9908, "aerial_won": 3.3506, "total_shots": 0.6065, "rating": 7.082, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4247, "accurate_pass": 41.1075, "duels_won": 7.329, "total_long_balls": 6.2682, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5489, "total_own_half_passes": 27.5743, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.822, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.8504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2855, "crosses_total": 0.0841, "crosses_accurate": 0.0019, "touches": 64.9182, "possession_lost": 9.0656, "dispossessed": 0.0058, "duels_lost": 2.7044, "aerial_lost": 1.513, "total_contest": 0.3791, "won_contest": 0.2885, "ball_recovery": 3.2309, "challenges_lost": 0.1872, "fouls": 0.9258, "fouls_drawn": 1.6721, "blocks": 1.2086, "goals": 0.1057, 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} ], "others": -0.0427, "total": 6.6646, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.05399 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.021305 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016273 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.011436 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.0113 } ], "others_margin": -0.04279 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8396, "tackles": 1.3959, "tackles_won": 0.8497, "clearances": 2.353, "aerial_won": 0.9529, "total_shots": 0.4857, "rating": 6.6646, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 27.9597, "accurate_pass": 23.0921, "duels_won": 3.0253, "total_long_balls": 2.0084, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7394, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6402, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3527, "crosses_total": 2.0084, "crosses_accurate": 0.4956, "touches": 46.0031, "possession_lost": 10.0373, "dispossessed": 0.5428, "duels_lost": 3.5368, "aerial_lost": 1.0785, "total_contest": 0.9167, "won_contest": 0.6489, "ball_recovery": 2.7177, "challenges_lost": 1.0174, "fouls": 0.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2277, "blocks": 0.2277, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2678, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0053, "expected_assists": 0.1829, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4956, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.328, "total_progression": 43.5521, "progressive_carries": 1.2636, "key_pass": 1.1847, "shots_off_target": 0.4857, "opponent_faced": "Jacob Murphy", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1732, xG scale 1.2880, xA scale 1.2880, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8396, "tackles": 1.3959, "tackles_won": 0.8497, "clearances": 2.353, "aerial_won": 0.9529, "total_shots": 0.4857, "rating": 6.6646, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 27.9597, "accurate_pass": 23.0921, "duels_won": 3.0253, "total_long_balls": 2.0084, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7394, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6402, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3527, "crosses_total": 2.0084, "crosses_accurate": 0.4956, "touches": 46.0031, "possession_lost": 10.0373, "dispossessed": 0.5428, "duels_lost": 3.5368, "aerial_lost": 1.0785, "total_contest": 0.9167, "won_contest": 0.6489, "ball_recovery": 2.7177, "challenges_lost": 1.0174, "fouls": 0.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2277, "blocks": 0.2277, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2678, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0068, "expected_assists": 0.2356, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4956, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.328, "total_progression": 43.5521, "progressive_carries": 1.2636, "key_pass": 1.1847, "shots_off_target": 0.4857, "opponent_faced": "Jacob Murphy", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9042, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.511, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1732, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9245, "team_expected_assists": 1.1907, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.288, "xa_scale": 1.288, "opponent_lambda": 1.436, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1829, "after": 0.2356 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8396, "tackles": 1.3959, "tackles_won": 0.8497, "clearances": 2.353, "aerial_won": 0.9529, "total_shots": 0.4857, "rating": 6.6646, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 27.9597, "accurate_pass": 23.0921, "duels_won": 3.0253, "total_long_balls": 2.0084, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7394, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6402, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3527, "crosses_total": 2.0084, "crosses_accurate": 0.4956, "touches": 46.0031, "possession_lost": 10.0373, "dispossessed": 0.5428, "duels_lost": 3.5368, "aerial_lost": 1.0785, "total_contest": 0.9167, "won_contest": 0.6489, "ball_recovery": 2.7177, "challenges_lost": 1.0174, "fouls": 0.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2277, "blocks": 0.2277, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2678, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0068, "expected_assists": 0.2356, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4956, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.328, "total_progression": 43.5521, "progressive_carries": 1.2636, "key_pass": 1.1847, "shots_off_target": 0.4857, "opponent_faced": "Jacob Murphy", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9042, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2124, "fifa_rank": 1464.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8396, "tackles": 1.3959, "tackles_won": 0.8497, "clearances": 2.353, "aerial_won": 0.9529, "total_shots": 0.4857, "rating": 6.6646, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 27.9597, "accurate_pass": 23.0921, "duels_won": 3.0253, "total_long_balls": 2.0084, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7394, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6402, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3527, "crosses_total": 2.0084, "crosses_accurate": 0.4956, "touches": 46.0031, "possession_lost": 10.0373, "dispossessed": 0.5428, "duels_lost": 3.5368, "aerial_lost": 1.0785, "total_contest": 0.9167, "won_contest": 0.6489, "ball_recovery": 2.7177, "challenges_lost": 1.0174, "fouls": 0.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2277, "blocks": 0.2277, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2678, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0068, "expected_assists": 0.2356, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4956, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.328, "total_progression": 43.5521, "progressive_carries": 1.2636, "key_pass": 1.1847, "shots_off_target": 0.4857, "opponent_faced": "Jacob Murphy", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0068, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9042, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0068, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0061, "squad_weight_total": 1.5809, "weight_share": 0.0039, "finishing_factor": 0.9042, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.4873, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4873, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2338 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8396, "tackles": 1.3959, "tackles_won": 0.8497, "clearances": 2.353, "aerial_won": 0.9529, "total_shots": 0.4857, "rating": 6.6646, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 27.9597, "accurate_pass": 23.0921, "duels_won": 3.0253, "total_long_balls": 2.0084, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7394, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6402, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3527, "crosses_total": 2.0084, "crosses_accurate": 0.4956, "touches": 46.0031, "possession_lost": 10.0373, "dispossessed": 0.5428, "duels_lost": 3.5368, "aerial_lost": 1.0785, "total_contest": 0.9167, "won_contest": 0.6489, "ball_recovery": 2.7177, "challenges_lost": 1.0174, "fouls": 0.6302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2277, "blocks": 0.2277, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2678, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0068, "expected_assists": 0.2356, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4956, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.328, "total_progression": 43.5521, "progressive_carries": 1.2636, "key_pass": 1.1847, "shots_off_target": 0.4857, "opponent_faced": "Jacob Murphy", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0068, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2099, "finishing_factor": 0.9042, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2099, "assist_rate": 0.2678, "provider_weight": 0.2945, "squad_weight_total": 1.1299, "weight_share": 0.2606, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "weight": 0.2945, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2945, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1814, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jordan Pickford": { "player_id": 138530, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 185, "market_value": 13900000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0862, "rating": 7.1109, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 21, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 50, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.2153, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 14.4718, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5568, "shots_faced": 13.6, "expected_saves": 3.32, "high_pressure_saves": 1.15, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes, Yoane Wissa", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", 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"premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363884.0, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1252 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363876.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.961, "goals_prevented": 0.0862, "rating": 7.1109, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1167, "accurate_pass": 25.7323, "total_long_balls": 21.4311, "accurate_long_balls": 7.2232, "touches": 49.8778, "clearances": 1.6575, "ball_recovery": 9.3353, "high_claims": 0.5058, "punches": 1.2153, "aerial_won": 0.1184, "sweeper_actions": 1.1977, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1973, "saves_inside_box": 1.6935, "possession_lost": 14.4718, "duels_won": 0.4822, "duels_lost": 0.0164, "total_contest": 0.0784, "won_contest": 0.0784, "fouls": 0.0153, "fouls_drawn": 0.2886, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6019, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5568, "shots_faced": 14.8, "expected_saves": 3.62, "high_pressure_saves": 1.25, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes, Yoane Wissa", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1732, xG scale 1.2880, xA scale 1.2880, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.961, "goals_prevented": 0.0862, "rating": 7.1109, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1167, "accurate_pass": 25.7323, "total_long_balls": 21.4311, "accurate_long_balls": 7.2232, "touches": 49.8778, "clearances": 1.6575, "ball_recovery": 9.3353, "high_claims": 0.5058, "punches": 1.2153, "aerial_won": 0.1184, "sweeper_actions": 1.1977, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1973, "saves_inside_box": 1.6935, "possession_lost": 14.4718, "duels_won": 0.4822, "duels_lost": 0.0164, "total_contest": 0.0784, "won_contest": 0.0784, "fouls": 0.0153, "fouls_drawn": 0.2886, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6019, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5568, "shots_faced": 13.6, "expected_saves": 3.32, "high_pressure_saves": 1.15, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes, Yoane Wissa", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.511, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1732, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9245, "team_expected_assists": 1.1907, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.288, "xa_scale": 1.288, "opponent_lambda": 1.436, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 14.8, "after": 13.6 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.62, "after": 3.32 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.25, "after": 1.15 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.961, "goals_prevented": 0.0862, "rating": 7.1109, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1167, "accurate_pass": 25.7323, "total_long_balls": 21.4311, "accurate_long_balls": 7.2232, "touches": 49.8778, "clearances": 1.6575, "ball_recovery": 9.3353, "high_claims": 0.5058, "punches": 1.2153, "aerial_won": 0.1184, "sweeper_actions": 1.1977, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1973, "saves_inside_box": 1.6935, "possession_lost": 14.4718, "duels_won": 0.4822, "duels_lost": 0.0164, "total_contest": 0.0784, "won_contest": 0.0784, "fouls": 0.0153, "fouls_drawn": 0.2886, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6019, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5568, "shots_faced": 13.6, "expected_saves": 3.32, "high_pressure_saves": 1.15, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes, Yoane Wissa", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"ball_recovery": 9.3353, "high_claims": 0.5058, "punches": 1.2153, "aerial_won": 0.1184, "sweeper_actions": 1.1977, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1973, "saves_inside_box": 1.6935, "possession_lost": 14.4718, "duels_won": 0.4822, "duels_lost": 0.0164, "total_contest": 0.0784, "won_contest": 0.0784, "fouls": 0.0153, "fouls_drawn": 0.2886, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6019, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5568, "shots_faced": 13.6, "expected_saves": 3.32, "high_pressure_saves": 1.15, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes, Yoane Wissa", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.5809, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.4873, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4873, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2338 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.961, "goals_prevented": 0.0862, "rating": 7.1109, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1167, "accurate_pass": 25.7323, "total_long_balls": 21.4311, "accurate_long_balls": 7.2232, "touches": 49.8778, "clearances": 1.6575, "ball_recovery": 9.3353, "high_claims": 0.5058, "punches": 1.2153, "aerial_won": 0.1184, "sweeper_actions": 1.1977, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1973, "saves_inside_box": 1.6935, "possession_lost": 14.4718, "duels_won": 0.4822, "duels_lost": 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0, "effective_weight": 0.2945, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1814, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] }, "Thierno Barry": { "player_id": 1395746, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 195, "market_value": 36000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4742, "goal_rate": 0.3797, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.039, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8078, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 10.1851, "dispossessed": 1.4407, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 5, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.533, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9627, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman", "opponent_faced": "Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3776, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0382, "finishing_factor": 1.0277, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363891.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", 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"season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363651.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5211, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363647.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", 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0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1927 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.06 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0547 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0453 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0308 } ], "others": -0.1139, "total": 0.5797, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.245772 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070232 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.06869 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.060707 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043495 } ], "others_margin": -0.179379 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.807816982269287, "model_output": 6.8078, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0074, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3824, "goals": 0.3931, "goal_rate": 0.3931, "shots_on_target": 1.0647, "total_shots": 2.3884, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "key_pass": 0.5839, "rating": 6.8078, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 13.4214, "accurate_pass": 9.2094, "duels_won": 7.154, "total_long_balls": 0.0938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0082, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0934, "crosses_total": 0.1736, "crosses_accurate": 0.0646, "touches": 29.1833, "possession_lost": 10.1851, "dispossessed": 1.4407, "duels_lost": 8.1294, "aerial_lost": 5.2519, "total_contest": 1.0302, "won_contest": 0.6303, "ball_recovery": 1.1753, "challenges_lost": 0.2789, "fouls": 0.8993, "fouls_drawn": 1.1931, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2467, "tackles_won": 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"season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3155, "combined_rank_score": 1120.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 1795.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6283, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jake O'Brien", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chemsdine Talbi", "ranking": 3150 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3151 }, { "player_name": "Michal Sadílek", "ranking": 3152 }, { "player_name": "Tammy Abraham", "ranking": 3153 }, { "player_name": "Rafa Marín", "ranking": 3154 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Robin Hranáč", "ranking": 3156 }, { "player_name": "Jhon Durán", "ranking": 3157 }, { "player_name": "Unai López", "ranking": 3158 }, { "player_name": "Clément Lenglet", "ranking": 3159 }, { "player_name": "Albion Rrahmani", "ranking": 3160 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0455, "total": 6.6283, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.046819 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.028295 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018188 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017397 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.014277 } ], "others_margin": -0.045551 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 189, "market_value": 10900000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.729, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.8474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.007, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0146, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, 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"season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025128.0, "match_date": "2026-01-31", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15129439.0, "match_date": "2026-01-26", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025064.0, "match_date": "2026-01-18", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025046.0, "match_date": "2026-01-07", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025268.0, "match_date": "2025-12-30", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025238.0, "match_date": "2025-12-27", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.029, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4547, "combined_rank_score": 2610.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 471.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8833, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 4750.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.729, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nathan Patterson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Valera", "ranking": 4542 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Fernández", "ranking": 4543 }, { "player_name": "Ximo Navarro", "ranking": 4544 }, { "player_name": "João Virgínia", "ranking": 4545 }, { "player_name": "Dimitri Foulquier", "ranking": 4546 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Isaac Price", "ranking": 4548 }, { "player_name": "Andy Irving", "ranking": 4549 }, { "player_name": "Abel Ruíz", "ranking": 4550 }, { "player_name": "Enzo Copetti", "ranking": 4551 }, { "player_name": "Milutin Osmajić", "ranking": 4552 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.950580115654624, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.31593545980248294, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0035, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Everton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (7 historical appearances) to 14.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.32); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3205, "tackles": 0.6595, "tackles_won": 0.305, "clearances": 1.0796, "aerial_won": 0.4112, "total_shots": 0.1949, "rating": 6.729, "minutes": 11.11, "total_pass": 2.033, "accurate_pass": 0.993, "duels_won": 0.4595, "total_long_balls": 0.4595, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.5335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5335, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.4595, "crosses_total": 0.9929, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.4453, "possession_lost": 2.2597, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2667, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0056, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "shots_on_target": 0.1927, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 0.1927, "total_progression": 0.8499, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0022 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-11-02T11:05:13.106082+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 631, "rows": 22117 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-31", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-26", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-18", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-30", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-27", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.2158, "aerialWon": 0.9217, "totalClearance_p90": 22.8224, "totalTackle": 1.3145, "totalTackle_p90": 3.7667 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3205409049987793, "model_output": 0.3205, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4507 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0572 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0147, "total": 0.3205, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.137969, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.728569 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.146366 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.061525 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.057163 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038607 } ], "others_margin": -0.04476 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6595243215560913, "model_output": 0.6595, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7268 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0215 } ], "others": -0.014, "total": 0.6595, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.741985 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.055194 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.035402 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.033104 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.032376 } ], "others_margin": -0.020819 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.30502763390541077, "model_output": 0.305, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1951 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4643 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0422, "total": 0.305, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.792794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.06402 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.038667 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.030328 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.028211 } ], "others_margin": -0.129376 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0796027183532715, "model_output": 1.0796, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1274 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1471 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0619 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0429 } ], "others": 0.0871, "total": 1.0796, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.975089 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.121255 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.120669 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063165 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.04416 } ], "others_margin": 0.084229 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.41117632389068604, "model_output": 0.4112, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8347 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1038 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0302 } ], "others": 0.0049, "total": 0.4112, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.940079 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.215611 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.087308 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.074892 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.071615 } ], "others_margin": 0.011562 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19493024051189423, "model_output": 0.1949, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1937 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0801 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0271, "total": 0.1949, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.193728 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.080113 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.020243 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.01829 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.016482 } ], "others_margin": -0.027007 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.728992938995361, "model_output": 6.729, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0087, "total": 6.729, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.038613 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.034848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.026272 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018513 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012517 } ], "others_margin": -0.008722 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2871, "combined_rank_score": 970.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1429.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6992, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hayden Hackney", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Miguel Loureiro", "ranking": 2866 }, { "player_name": "Saba Sazonov", "ranking": 2867 }, { "player_name": "Juan Pablo Nieto", "ranking": 2868 }, { "player_name": "Adalid Terrazas", 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"contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0196, "total": 0.1471, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.449245 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.270698 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.171393 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.112053 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.089696 } ], "others_margin": 0.143332 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3467264175415039, "model_output": 0.3467, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3944 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2356 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0536 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0394 } ], "others": 0.0182, "total": 0.3467, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.394418 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.235576 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053593 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040628 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.039359 } ], "others_margin": 0.018179 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.699150562286377, "model_output": 6.6992, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.097 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 6.6991, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.096953 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034954 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02946 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.016466 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011673 } ], "others_margin": -0.025027 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0309, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3321, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0571, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "expected_goals": 0.0229, "goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "shots_on_target": 0.1517, "total_shots": 0.3575, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 15.85, "total_pass": 13.2906, "accurate_pass": 12.2881, "duels_won": 0.1296, "total_long_balls": 0.3635, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1525, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2831, "crosses_total": 0.9388, "crosses_accurate": 0.1296, "touches": 16.7047, "possession_lost": 2.862, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 1.5687, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1102, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.1525, 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{ "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9388, "after": 0.9312 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4007, "after": 0.3952 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.8 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assists": 0.0838, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.052047 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.024337 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.01813 } ], "others_margin": -0.015062 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6855549812316895, "model_output": 6.6856, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0719 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0052 } ], "others": -0.0226, "total": 6.6856, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { 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"contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0232, "total": 0.0767, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.467218 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.16849 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.122643 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.082373 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.063847 } ], "others_margin": 0.359718 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6320631504058838, "model_output": 0.6321, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2937 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0524 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0386 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0362 } ], "others": 0.0688, "total": 0.6321, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.552603 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.123769 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.082171 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.075054 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.066374 } ], "others_margin": 0.115053 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.85214900970459, "model_output": 6.8521, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0899 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.074 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0206 } ], "others": 0.0162, "total": 6.8521, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08988 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.074041 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.036167 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.021651 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.020584 } ], "others_margin": 0.016252 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0632, "shots_on_target": 0.2151, "total_shots": 0.6546, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 0.6362, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 19.61, "total_pass": 8.3749, "accurate_pass": 7.2636, "duels_won": 2.0109, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7524, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7827, "crosses_total": 0.1417, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.029, "possession_lost": 2.1179, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 1.8578, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.4614, "won_contest": 0.2307, "ball_recovery": 0.5798, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.6343, "fouls_drawn": 1.0819, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2307, "tackles": 0.6983, "clearances": 0.5429, "blocks": 0.1417, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4132, "total_progression": 37.8509, "progressive_carries": 1.5839, "shots_off_target": 0.4395 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.6 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goals": 0.0841, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.1, "projection_minutes": 19.61, "minutes_scale": 1.3308, "appearance_probability": 0.595 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goals": 0.0841, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1732, xG scale 1.2880, xA scale 1.2880, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0956, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.511, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1732, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9245, "team_expected_assists": 1.1907, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.288, "xa_scale": 1.288, "opponent_lambda": 1.436, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.595 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0724, "after": 0.0555 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1027, "after": 0.0787 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0956, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 461, "fifa_rank": 369.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.053, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0956, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.053, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "scorer_weight": 0.0608, "squad_weight_total": 1.5809, "weight_share": 0.0385, "finishing_factor": 1.0956, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.4873, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4873, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2338 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.053, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0737, "finishing_factor": 1.0956, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0737, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.063, "squad_weight_total": 1.1299, "weight_share": 0.0557, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "weight": 0.2945, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2945, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1814, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] }, "Beto": { "player_id": 987489, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 194, "market_value": 19300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1383, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, 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0.0122, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363247.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023967.0, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.624)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1193, "goals": 0.1496, "goal_rate": 0.1496, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.8442, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.3036, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 17.17, "total_pass": 2.3642, "accurate_pass": 1.3989, "duels_won": 1.0662, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5997, "crosses_total": 0.183, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5212, "possession_lost": 2.6199, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.0865, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.4202, "won_contest": 0.1113, "ball_recovery": 0.2405, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.4288, "fouls_drawn": 0.0051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0584, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1176, "clearances": 0.206, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0823, "offsides": 0.0843, "ball_carries": 0.9276, "total_progression": 0.9415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5633 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19300000, "quality_factor": 0.6241, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1193, "goals": 0.1493, "goal_rate": 0.1493, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.8446, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.3036, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 17.17, "total_pass": 2.3642, "accurate_pass": 1.3989, "duels_won": 1.0662, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5997, "crosses_total": 0.1836, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5212, "possession_lost": 2.6199, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.0865, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.4202, "won_contest": 0.1113, "ball_recovery": 0.2405, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.428, "fouls_drawn": 0.0051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0583, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1176, "clearances": 0.206, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0823, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 0.9276, "total_progression": 0.9415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5633 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1908, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 21.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goals": 0.1831, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.06, "projection_minutes": 17.17, "minutes_scale": 1.2266, "appearance_probability": 0.734 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goals": 0.1831, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1732, xG scale 1.2880, xA scale 1.2880, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1383, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.0954, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.511, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1732, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9245, "team_expected_assists": 1.1907, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.288, "xa_scale": 1.288, "opponent_lambda": 1.436, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.734 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1463, "after": 0.1383 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1383, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.0954, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3149, "fifa_rank": 1428.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1383, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.0954, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1261, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1261, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "scorer_weight": 0.1642, "squad_weight_total": 1.5809, "weight_share": 0.1039, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "appearance_weight": 0.734, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.4873, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4873, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2338 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1383, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.0954, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1261, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0122, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0122, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0098, "squad_weight_total": 1.1299, "weight_share": 0.0087, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.734, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "weight": 0.2945, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2945, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1814, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Beto": { "player_id": 987489, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 194, "market_value": 19300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1383, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2655 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0718 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0252 } ], "others": -0.1038, "total": 0.3024, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.484269 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.155697 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079443 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.064158 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.060149 } ], "others_margin": -0.295085 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.629850387573242, "model_output": 6.6299, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0542 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0391, "total": 6.6299, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.054234 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014516 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014421 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011135 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.01014 } ], "others_margin": -0.039038 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.624)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1193, "goals": 0.1496, "goal_rate": 0.1496, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.8442, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.3036, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 17.17, "total_pass": 2.3642, "accurate_pass": 1.3989, "duels_won": 1.0662, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5997, "crosses_total": 0.183, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5212, "possession_lost": 2.6199, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.0865, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.4202, "won_contest": 0.1113, "ball_recovery": 0.2405, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.4288, "fouls_drawn": 0.0051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0584, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1176, "clearances": 0.206, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0823, "offsides": 0.0843, "ball_carries": 0.9276, "total_progression": 0.9415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5633 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19300000, "quality_factor": 0.6241, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1193, "goals": 0.1493, "goal_rate": 0.1493, "shots_on_target": 0.2802, "total_shots": 0.8446, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.3036, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 17.17, "total_pass": 2.3642, "accurate_pass": 1.3989, "duels_won": 1.0662, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5997, "crosses_total": 0.1836, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5212, "possession_lost": 2.6199, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.0865, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.4202, "won_contest": 0.1113, "ball_recovery": 0.2405, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.428, "fouls_drawn": 0.0051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0583, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1176, "clearances": 0.206, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0823, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 0.9276, "total_progression": 0.9415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5633 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1908, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 21.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goals": 0.1831, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.06, "projection_minutes": 17.17, "minutes_scale": 1.2266, "appearance_probability": 0.734 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goals": 0.1831, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1732, xG scale 1.2880, xA scale 1.2880, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1383, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.0954, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.511, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1732, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9245, "team_expected_assists": 1.1907, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.288, "xa_scale": 1.288, "opponent_lambda": 1.436, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.734 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1463, "after": 0.1383 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1383, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.0954, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3149, "fifa_rank": 1428.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1383, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.0954, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1261, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1261, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "scorer_weight": 0.1642, "squad_weight_total": 1.5809, "weight_share": 0.1039, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "appearance_weight": 0.734, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.4873, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4873, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2338 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1383, "goal_rate": 0.1831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3437, "total_shots": 1.036, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3724, "rating": 6.6299, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.0954, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6909, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1261, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0122, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0122, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0098, "squad_weight_total": 1.1299, "weight_share": 0.0087, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.734, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "weight": 0.2945, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2945, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1814, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jack Grealish": { "player_id": 189061, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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0.0206 } ], "others": 0.0162, "total": 6.8521, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08988 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.074041 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.036167 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.021651 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.020584 } ], "others_margin": 0.016252 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0632, "shots_on_target": 0.2151, "total_shots": 0.6546, "expected_assists": 0.0772, "key_pass": 0.6362, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 19.61, "total_pass": 8.3749, "accurate_pass": 7.2636, "duels_won": 2.0109, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7524, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7827, "crosses_total": 0.1417, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.029, "possession_lost": 2.1179, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 1.8578, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.4614, "won_contest": 0.2307, "ball_recovery": 0.5798, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.6343, "fouls_drawn": 1.0819, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2307, "tackles": 0.6983, "clearances": 0.5429, "blocks": 0.1417, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4132, "total_progression": 37.8509, "progressive_carries": 1.5839, "shots_off_target": 0.4395 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.6 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goals": 0.0841, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.1, "projection_minutes": 19.61, "minutes_scale": 1.3308, "appearance_probability": 0.595 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goals": 0.0841, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1732, xG scale 1.2880, xA scale 1.2880, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0956, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.511, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1732, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9245, "team_expected_assists": 1.1907, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.288, "xa_scale": 1.288, "opponent_lambda": 1.436, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.595 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0724, "after": 0.0555 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1027, "after": 0.0787 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0956, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 461, "fifa_rank": 369.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.053, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0956, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.053, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "scorer_weight": 0.0608, "squad_weight_total": 1.5809, "weight_share": 0.0385, "finishing_factor": 1.0956, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.4873, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4873, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2338 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0841, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2863, "total_shots": 0.8712, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8467, "rating": 6.8521, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 11.1455, "accurate_pass": 9.6666, "duels_won": 2.6762, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6958, "crosses_total": 0.1886, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3393, "possession_lost": 2.8186, "dispossessed": 0.4676, "duels_lost": 2.4724, "aerial_lost": 0.4501, "total_contest": 0.614, "won_contest": 0.307, "ball_recovery": 0.7716, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.8441, "fouls_drawn": 1.4398, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.307, "tackles": 0.9293, "clearances": 0.7225, "blocks": 0.1886, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8657, "total_progression": 50.3729, "progressive_carries": 2.1079, "shots_off_target": 0.5849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.053, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0737, "finishing_factor": 1.0956, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0737, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.063, "squad_weight_total": 1.1299, "weight_share": 0.0557, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "weight": 0.2945, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2945, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1814, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] }, "Hayden Hackney": { "player_id": 1008471, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 178, "market_value": 35000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0345, "finishing_factor": 1.1305, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363891.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363876.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363651.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363647.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "expected_assists": 0.0892, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363247.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0115, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0098, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2871, "combined_rank_score": 970.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1429.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6992, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hayden Hackney", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Miguel Loureiro", "ranking": 2866 }, { "player_name": "Saba Sazonov", "ranking": 2867 }, { "player_name": "Juan Pablo Nieto", "ranking": 2868 }, { "player_name": "Adalid Terrazas", "ranking": 2869 }, { "player_name": "Choi Sung-bum", "ranking": 2870 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marcelino Moreno", "ranking": 2872 }, { "player_name": "Dylan Escobar", "ranking": 2873 }, { "player_name": "Nicholas Pozo", "ranking": 2874 }, { "player_name": "Andreas Malin", "ranking": 2875 }, { "player_name": "Jauregizar", "ranking": 2876 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.7, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.7, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.525, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0309, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Everton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 29.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (7 historical appearances) to 26.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.53); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 29.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": 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"is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4193, "creative_index": 0.194, "expectedGoals": 0.0093, "expectedAssists": 0.0237, "keyPass": 0.4493 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.32211437821388245, "model_output": 0.3221, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1373 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0712 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0516 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0289 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8902, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4475 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.0847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0018 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 0.0342, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.468924, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.596582 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.167262 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.091007 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.048932 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.046579 } ], "others_margin": -0.05439 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.055363111197948456, "model_output": 0.0554, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0445 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0324 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0293 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0039 } ], "others": 0.0005, "total": 0.0554, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463472, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.375152 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.126407 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.102228 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.089727 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.073848 } ], "others_margin": 0.009841 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0222021397203207, "model_output": 0.0222, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0756 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0918, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0017 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0012 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 0.0222, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.597989 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.442595 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.203223 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060684 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.044378 } ], "others_margin": -0.192103 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.030003797262907028, "model_output": 0.03, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0408 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0025 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.03, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.564031 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.221255 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.219666 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.073636 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.068938 } ], "others_margin": -0.138396 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1471288949251175, "model_output": 0.1471, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.115 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0196, "total": 0.1471, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.449245 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.270698 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.171393 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.112053 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.089696 } ], "others_margin": 0.143332 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3467264175415039, "model_output": 0.3467, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3944 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2356 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0536 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0394 } ], "others": 0.0182, "total": 0.3467, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.394418 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.235576 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053593 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040628 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.039359 } ], "others_margin": 0.018179 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.699150562286377, "model_output": 6.6992, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.097 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 6.6991, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.096953 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034954 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02946 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.016466 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011673 } ], "others_margin": -0.025027 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0309, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3321, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0571, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "expected_goals": 0.0229, "goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "shots_on_target": 0.1517, "total_shots": 0.3575, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 15.85, "total_pass": 13.2906, "accurate_pass": 12.2881, "duels_won": 0.1296, "total_long_balls": 0.3635, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1525, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2831, "crosses_total": 0.9388, "crosses_accurate": 0.1296, "touches": 16.7047, "possession_lost": 2.862, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 1.5687, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1102, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.1525, "total_contest": 0.2482, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.4007, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1102, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 4.6219, "total_progression": 19.0572, "progressive_carries": 0.4702, "shots_off_target": 0.2058 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 35000000, "quality_factor": 0.752, "boost_factor": 1.0309, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0217)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3321, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0559, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "expected_goals": 0.0229, "goals": 0.0302, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "shots_on_target": 0.1484, "total_shots": 0.353, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 15.85, "total_pass": 13.2906, "accurate_pass": 12.2881, "duels_won": 0.1296, "total_long_balls": 0.3635, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1525, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2831, "crosses_total": 0.9312, "crosses_accurate": 0.1296, "touches": 16.7047, "possession_lost": 2.862, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 1.5687, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.111, "tackles_won": 0.0032, "tackles": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.1525, "total_contest": 0.2482, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.3952, "fouls_drawn": 0.0095, "blocks": 0.1102, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 4.6219, "total_progression": 19.0572, "progressive_carries": 0.4702, "shots_off_target": 0.2058 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0217, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1761, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0095 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9388, "after": 0.9312 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4007, "after": 0.3952 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.8 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assists": 0.0838, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0284, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 15.85, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assists": 0.0838, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0284, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0284, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1732, xG scale 1.2880, xA scale 1.2880, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0192, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1305, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.511, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1732, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9245, "team_expected_assists": 1.1907, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.788, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.288, "xa_scale": 1.288, "opponent_lambda": 1.436, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0343, "after": 0.0232 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0528, "after": 0.0357 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0192, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1305, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2871, "fifa_rank": 1429.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0192, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1305, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "scorer_weight": 0.0262, "squad_weight_total": 1.5809, "weight_share": 0.0166, "finishing_factor": 1.1305, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.4873, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4873, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2338 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0192, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.502, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0345, "finishing_factor": 1.1305, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0345, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "provider_weight": 0.0446, "squad_weight_total": 1.1299, "weight_share": 0.0395, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "weight": 0.2945, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2945, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1814, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.51, "expected_assists": 1.19, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 416, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.91, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Joe Willock", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "James Tarkowski" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.541, "xg_contribution": 0.1776, "xg_multiplier": 1.0894, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Tarkowski", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.459 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joe Willock (LW) is slightly favored against James Tarkowski in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.178 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Harvey Barnes", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.747, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.236, "xg_multiplier": 0.9401, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harvey Barnes (ST) is evenly matched against Vitaliy Mykolenko and Jarrad Branthwaite in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.236 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yoane Wissa", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.747, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2178, "xg_multiplier": 0.8377, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yoane Wissa (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Vitaliy Mykolenko and Jarrad Branthwaite in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.218 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jacob Murphy", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.513, "defenders": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.747, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0814, "xg_multiplier": 0.7408, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jacob Murphy (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Vitaliy Mykolenko and Jarrad Branthwaite in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €36M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.74 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.081 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Joelinton", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "James Garner" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.354, "xg_contribution": 0.0737, "xg_multiplier": 0.9026, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Garner", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.646 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joelinton (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against James Garner in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €53M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Nico González", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "James Garner" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "xg_contribution": 0.0423, "xg_multiplier": 1.0251, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Garner", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.563 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nico González (CDM) is evenly matched against James Garner in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Lewis Hall" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.831, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "xg_contribution": 0.1675, "xg_multiplier": 0.9439, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Hall", "role": "RB", "market_value": 52000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.558 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (LW) is evenly matched against Lewis Hall in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.168 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Thierno Barry", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Malick Thiaw", "Sven Botman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.774, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3681, "xg_multiplier": 0.9627, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thierno Barry (ST) is evenly matched against Malick Thiaw and Sven Botman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.368 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Tyrique George", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Malick Thiaw", "Sven Botman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.774, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0839, "xg_multiplier": 0.8325, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrique George (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Malick Thiaw and Sven Botman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Brennan Johnson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Malick Thiaw", "Sven Botman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.774, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1486, "xg_multiplier": 0.8674, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brennan Johnson (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Malick Thiaw and Sven Botman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.149 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "James Garner", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Joelinton" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.486, "xg_contribution": 0.0677, "xg_multiplier": 1.0974, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joelinton", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.514 } ], "duel_analysis": "James Garner (CDM) is slightly favored against Joelinton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€53M vs €21M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Harrison Armstrong", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Joelinton" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "xg_contribution": 0.0845, "xg_multiplier": 1.0512, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joelinton", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harrison Armstrong (CDM) is evenly matched against Joelinton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.699, "away_midfield_power": 0.786, "home_creative_power": 0.594, "away_creative_power": 0.832, "home_defensive_power": 0.594, "away_defensive_power": 0.616, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.47, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Joe Willock", "Joelinton", "Nico González" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "James Garner", "Harrison Armstrong" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 3.1, "key_personal_duel": "Nico González vs James Garner", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.992, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.018 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.436, "away_lambda": 1.511, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Joe Willock": { "opponents": [ "James Tarkowski", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Harvey Barnes": { "opponents": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yoane Wissa": { "opponents": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jacob Murphy": { "opponents": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Joelinton": { "opponents": [ "James Garner", "Harrison Armstrong" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nico González": { "opponents": [ "James Garner", "Harrison Armstrong" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lewis Hall": { "opponents": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Malick Thiaw": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry", "Tyrique George", "Brennan Johnson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sven Botman": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry", "Tyrique George", "Brennan Johnson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lukáš Horníček": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry", "Brennan Johnson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Amar Dedić": { "opponents": [ "Tyrique George" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "James Tarkowski": { "opponents": [ "Joe Willock" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vitaliy Mykolenko": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes", "Yoane Wissa", "Jacob Murphy" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jarrad Branthwaite": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes", "Yoane Wissa", "Jacob Murphy" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Garner": { "opponents": [ "Joelinton", "Nico González" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Hall", "Joe Willock" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thierno Barry": { "opponents": [ "Malick Thiaw", "Sven Botman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tyrique George": { "opponents": [ "Malick Thiaw", "Sven Botman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Brennan Johnson": { "opponents": [ "Malick Thiaw", "Sven Botman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Harrison Armstrong": { "opponents": [ "Joelinton", "Nico González" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jordan Pickford": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes", "Yoane Wissa" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ainsley Maitland-Niles": { "opponents": [ "Jacob Murphy" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Nico González vs James Garner will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.83, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9575, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9123, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1451, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9382, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8859, "home_midfield_factor": 0.992, "away_midfield_factor": 1.018, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.7127, "away_avg_quality": 0.699, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0137, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.058, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.0574, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.2665, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0096, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8288, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9841 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.992, "result": 0.9762 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9762 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.2683 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9864, "result": 1.2511 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9575, "result": 1.1979 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9382, "result": 1.1238 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1451, "result": 1.2689 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2689, "result": 1.2689, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0096, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.2689, "result": 1.2689 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2689 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1661, "result": 1.4351 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.069, "result": 1.5568 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5568, "result": 1.557, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.635 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9857, "pre": 1.635, "result": 1.6116, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.612 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.612 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.612, "result": 1.612, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.436 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9203, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0527 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.018, "result": 1.0717 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0717 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0717 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9957, "result": 1.0671 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9123, "result": 0.9735 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8859, "result": 0.8624 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.0424 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0424, "result": 1.0424, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0096, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.0424, "result": 1.0424 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0424 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.2076, "result": 1.2496 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.069, "result": 1.4069 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4069, "result": 1.407, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.3, "result": 1.829 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0143, "pre": 1.829, "result": 1.8552, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.855 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.855 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.855, "result": 1.855, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.511 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1661, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2076, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Newcastle United", "away_squad": "Everton", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.612, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.855, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.5568, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4069, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.436, "final_away_lambda": 1.511 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9864, "attack_index": 1.038, "defense_concede_index": 0.929, "form_multiplier": 1.004, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.42, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.27, "team_ppg": 1.37, "opponent_ppg": 1.3 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9957, "attack_index": 0.892, "defense_concede_index": 1.111, "form_multiplier": 0.996, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.22, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.52, "team_ppg": 1.3, "opponent_ppg": 1.37 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Newcastle vs Everton. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.557, Away 1.407). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.436, Away 1.511 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Newcastle United", "away_squad": "Everton", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.436, "away_lambda": 1.511, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.557, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.407 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-02T14:30:59Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }