{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Deportivo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261102", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0915, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0915, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0748, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Deportivo", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2424, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1123 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0915 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0823 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0748 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0682 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0514, "0-1": 0.0671, "0-2": 0.0456, "0-3": 0.0204, "0-4": 0.0068, "0-5": 0.0018, "1-0": 0.0823, "1-1": 0.1123, "1-2": 0.0748, "1-3": 0.0335, "1-4": 0.0112, "1-5": 0.003, "1-6": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0682, "2-1": 0.0915, "2-2": 0.0614, "2-3": 0.0275, "2-4": 0.0092, "2-5": 0.0025, "2-6": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0373, "3-1": 0.0501, "3-2": 0.0336, "3-3": 0.015, "3-4": 0.005, "3-5": 0.0014, "4-0": 0.0153, "4-1": 0.0206, "4-2": 0.0138, "4-3": 0.0062, "4-4": 0.0021, "4-5": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.005, "5-1": 0.0068, "5-2": 0.0045, "5-3": 0.002, "5-4": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0014, "6-1": 0.0018, "6-2": 0.0012, "6-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4447, "draw": 0.2424, "away_win": 0.3129 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5732, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4268, "btts_yes": 0.5965, "btts_no": 0.4035, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2613, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1936 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.79, "MCR": 7.04, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 7.06 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.78, "MCR": 6.93, "ATR": 6.82, "GK": 6.95 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Deportivo vs Osasuna. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Deportivo 4W-3D-3L vs Osasuna over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Bil Nsongo, Yeremay Hernández, Ante Budimir", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Lorenzo Amatucci vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.65, Away: 0.85. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.642, "away_lambda": 1.342, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 1.0071, "away_multiplier": 0.9929 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1123, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4447, "draw": 0.2424, "away_win": 0.3129 }, "favorite": "Deportivo", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4447, "fair_spread": 0.3, "fair_total": 2.984, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.642, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.342, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5732, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5965, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2613, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1936, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bil Nsongo (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.4039, "probability": 0.3323, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ante Budimir (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.4767, "probability": 0.3792, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mario Soriano (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.2544, "probability": 0.2246, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Moi Gómez (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.1366, "probability": 0.1277, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.984, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 826, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.3, "possession_home_pct": 51.5, "possession_away_pct": 48.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Deportivo", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4447, "script": "Deportivo is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.30 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Osasuna must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Deportivo lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Osasuna chance creation leans on Ante Budimir against Giacomo Quagliata, José María Giménez in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Deportivo: starters carry the main goal usage through Bil Nsongo, Yeremay Hernández; bench watchlist: Jonathan Asp Jensen, Adama Traoré.", "Osasuna: starters carry the main goal usage through Ante Budimir; bench watchlist: Aimar Oroz, Romain Del Castillo, Raúl Moro.", "Assist usage should flow through Luismi Cruz, Mario Soriano, Rubén García; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Deportivo tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Osasuna is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Deportivo.", "Osasuna wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Deportivo": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bil Nsongo": { "player_id": 2335487, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 182, "market_value": 5300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4039, "goal_rate": 0.2006, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0848, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7317, "minutes": 71, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 9.9783, "dispossessed": 2.5995, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.093, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9217, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3323, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0813, "finishing_factor": 0.9948, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421082.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2435, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421070.0, "match_date": "2026-10-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 47, "rating": 6.3, "expected_goals": 0.0992, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421067.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5632, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.4, 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0754, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 7, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A 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"home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5567, "combined_rank_score": 3769.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 6960.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7317, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bil Nsongo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Guilherme Bissoli", "ranking": 5562 }, { "player_name": "Caio Vidal", "ranking": 5563 }, { "player_name": "Erick Marcus", "ranking": 5564 }, { "player_name": "Kwadwo Duah", "ranking": 5565 }, { "player_name": "Mateusz Skrzypczak", "ranking": 5566 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Einar Galilea", "ranking": 5568 }, { "player_name": "Ashley Barnes", "ranking": 5569 }, { "player_name": "Deian Sorescu", "ranking": 5570 }, { "player_name": "Vasilije Adžić", "ranking": 5571 }, { "player_name": "Luca De La Torre", "ranking": 5572 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.766, "history_matches": 10, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 10, "data_confidence": 0.766, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9961, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Dep. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9961, quality 0.466)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.219, "goals": 0.2227, "goal_rate": 0.2227, "shots_on_target": 0.5942, "total_shots": 1.8388, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0.6377, "rating": 6.7317, "minutes": 71.07, "total_pass": 14.1239, "accurate_pass": 11.0278, "duels_won": 5.1672, "total_long_balls": 0.3495, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2872, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9156, "crosses_total": 0.2558, "crosses_accurate": 0.0624, "touches": 31.1015, "possession_lost": 9.9783, "dispossessed": 2.5995, "duels_lost": 7.5343, "aerial_lost": 2.319, "total_contest": 2.9528, "won_contest": 1.6165, "ball_recovery": 2.4802, "challenges_lost": 0.4169, "fouls": 0.8625, "fouls_drawn": 0.55, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.585, "tackles": 0.8331, "clearances": 0.853, "blocks": 0.0733, "big_chances_created": 0.0747, "big_chances_missed": 0.1684, "xgot": 0.0505, "offsides": 0.4721, "ball_carries": 9.4721, "total_progression": 17.7114, "progressive_carries": 1.6309, "shots_off_target": 1.2445 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5300000, "quality_factor": 0.4659, "boost_factor": 0.9961, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0231)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.219, "goals": 0.2176, "goal_rate": 0.2176, "shots_on_target": 0.5916, "total_shots": 1.8299, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0.6377, "rating": 6.7317, "minutes": 71.07, "total_pass": 14.1239, "accurate_pass": 11.0278, "duels_won": 5.1672, "total_long_balls": 0.3495, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2872, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9156, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.0624, "touches": 31.1015, "possession_lost": 9.9783, "dispossessed": 2.5995, "duels_lost": 7.5343, "aerial_lost": 2.319, "total_contest": 2.9528, "won_contest": 1.6165, "ball_recovery": 2.4802, "challenges_lost": 0.4169, "fouls": 0.8882, "fouls_drawn": 0.5601, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6171, "tackles": 0.8331, "clearances": 0.853, "blocks": 0.0733, "big_chances_created": 0.0747, "big_chances_missed": 0.1684, "xgot": 0.0505, "offsides": 0.4726, "ball_carries": 9.4721, "total_progression": 17.7114, "progressive_carries": 1.6309, "shots_off_target": 1.2445 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0231, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7897, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2019, "goal_rate": 0.2006, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5453, "total_shots": 1.6924, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0.6377, "rating": 6.7317, "minutes": 71.07, "total_pass": 14.1239, "accurate_pass": 11.0278, "duels_won": 5.1672, "total_long_balls": 0.3495, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2872, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9156, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.0624, "touches": 31.1015, "possession_lost": 9.9783, "dispossessed": 2.5995, "duels_lost": 7.5343, "aerial_lost": 2.319, "total_contest": 2.9528, "won_contest": 1.6165, "ball_recovery": 2.4802, "challenges_lost": 0.4169, "fouls": 0.8882, "fouls_drawn": 0.5601, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6171, "tackles": 0.8331, "clearances": 0.853, "blocks": 0.0733, "big_chances_created": 0.0747, "big_chances_missed": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.0465, "offsides": 0.4726, "ball_carries": 9.4721, "total_progression": 17.7114, "progressive_carries": 1.6309, "shots_off_target": 1.1471, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9217, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 0.8207, xG scale 2.0006, xA scale 1.8887, team xA 1.31 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4039, "goal_rate": 0.2006, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5453, "total_shots": 1.6924, "expected_assists": 0.0848, "key_pass": 0.6377, "rating": 6.7317, "minutes": 71.07, "total_pass": 14.1239, "accurate_pass": 11.0278, "duels_won": 5.1672, "total_long_balls": 0.3495, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2872, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9156, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.0624, "touches": 31.1015, "possession_lost": 9.9783, "dispossessed": 2.5995, "duels_lost": 7.5343, "aerial_lost": 2.319, "total_contest": 2.9528, "won_contest": 1.6165, "ball_recovery": 2.4802, "challenges_lost": 0.4169, "fouls": 0.8882, "fouls_drawn": 0.5601, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6171, "tackles": 0.8331, "clearances": 0.853, "blocks": 0.0733, "big_chances_created": 0.0747, "big_chances_missed": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.093, "offsides": 0.4726, "ball_carries": 9.4721, "total_progression": 17.7114, "progressive_carries": 1.6309, "shots_off_target": 1.1471, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9217, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9948, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.642, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8207, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6955, "team_expected_assists": 1.3136, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0006, "xa_scale": 1.8887, "opponent_lambda": 1.342, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2019, "after": 0.4039 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0449, "after": 0.0848 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0556 } ], "others": 0.2979, "total": 1.3678, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.229293 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.10323 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.094316 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.05996 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.050662 } ], "others_margin": 0.245688 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.933908462524414, "model_output": 6.9339, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0581 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": 0.0136, "total": 6.9339, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.026223 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.023536 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.020477 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.018658 } ], "others_margin": 0.01362 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0166, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1236, "goals": 0.1314, "goal_rate": 0.1314, "shots_on_target": 0.4986, "total_shots": 1.3108, "expected_assists": 0.1153, "key_pass": 1.3906, "rating": 6.9339, "minutes": 74.78, "total_pass": 26.3874, "accurate_pass": 24.316, "duels_won": 7.8627, "total_long_balls": 0.7728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5017, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1396, "crosses_total": 1.383, "crosses_accurate": 0.461, "touches": 46.4291, "possession_lost": 8.0751, "dispossessed": 1.4236, "duels_lost": 5.0878, "aerial_lost": 0.3918, "total_contest": 6.5404, "won_contest": 4.3732, "ball_recovery": 3.5506, "challenges_lost": 0.319, "fouls": 0.7861, "fouls_drawn": 1.9604, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9281, "tackles_won": 0.8183, "tackles": 1.5291, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2189, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8844, "total_progression": 85.8726, "progressive_carries": 3.6756, "shots_off_target": 0.8122 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0166, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0062)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1236, "goals": 0.1306, "goal_rate": 0.1306, "shots_on_target": 0.4955, "total_shots": 1.3027, "expected_assists": 0.1153, "key_pass": 1.3906, "rating": 6.9339, "minutes": 74.78, "total_pass": 26.3874, "accurate_pass": 24.316, "duels_won": 7.8627, "total_long_balls": 0.7728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5017, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1396, "crosses_total": 1.3744, "crosses_accurate": 0.461, "touches": 46.4291, "possession_lost": 8.0751, "dispossessed": 1.4236, "duels_lost": 5.0878, "aerial_lost": 0.3918, "total_contest": 6.5404, "won_contest": 4.3732, "ball_recovery": 3.5506, "challenges_lost": 0.319, "fouls": 0.7812, "fouls_drawn": 1.9611, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9223, "tackles_won": 0.839, "tackles": 1.5291, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2189, "offsides": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 15.8844, "total_progression": 85.8726, "progressive_carries": 3.6756, "shots_off_target": 0.8122 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0062, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8309, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1228, "goal_rate": 0.1298, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4925, "total_shots": 1.2997, "expected_assists": 0.1153, "key_pass": 1.3906, "rating": 6.9339, "minutes": 74.78, "total_pass": 26.3874, "accurate_pass": 24.316, "duels_won": 7.8627, "total_long_balls": 0.7728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5017, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1396, "crosses_total": 1.3744, "crosses_accurate": 0.461, "touches": 46.4291, "possession_lost": 8.0751, "dispossessed": 1.4236, "duels_lost": 5.0878, "aerial_lost": 0.3918, "total_contest": 6.5404, "won_contest": 4.3732, "ball_recovery": 3.5506, "challenges_lost": 0.319, "fouls": 0.7812, "fouls_drawn": 1.9611, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9223, "tackles_won": 0.839, "tackles": 1.5291, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2176, "offsides": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 15.8844, "total_progression": 85.8726, "progressive_carries": 3.6756, "shots_off_target": 0.8072, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9939, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.196, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 0.8207, xG scale 2.0006, xA scale 1.8887, team xA 1.31 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2457, "goal_rate": 0.1298, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4925, "total_shots": 1.2997, "expected_assists": 0.2178, "key_pass": 1.3906, "rating": 6.9339, "minutes": 74.78, "total_pass": 26.3874, "accurate_pass": 24.316, "duels_won": 7.8627, "total_long_balls": 0.7728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5017, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1396, "crosses_total": 1.3744, "crosses_accurate": 0.461, "touches": 46.4291, "possession_lost": 8.0751, "dispossessed": 1.4236, "duels_lost": 5.0878, "aerial_lost": 0.3918, "total_contest": 6.5404, "won_contest": 4.3732, "ball_recovery": 3.5506, "challenges_lost": 0.319, "fouls": 0.7812, "fouls_drawn": 1.9611, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9223, "tackles_won": 0.839, "tackles": 1.5291, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4353, "offsides": 0.0129, "ball_carries": 15.8844, "total_progression": 85.8726, "progressive_carries": 3.6756, "shots_off_target": 0.8072, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9939, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.196, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0405, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.642, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8207, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6955, "team_expected_assists": 1.3136, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0006, "xa_scale": 1.8887, "opponent_lambda": 1.342, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1228, "after": 0.2457 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1153, "after": 0.2178 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2457, "goal_rate": 0.1298, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4925, "total_shots": 1.2997, "expected_assists": 0.2178, "key_pass": 1.3906, "rating": 6.9339, "minutes": 74.78, "total_pass": 26.3874, "accurate_pass": 24.316, "duels_won": 7.8627, "total_long_balls": 0.7728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5017, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1396, "crosses_total": 1.3744, "crosses_accurate": 0.461, "touches": 46.4291, "possession_lost": 8.0751, "dispossessed": 1.4236, "duels_lost": 5.0878, "aerial_lost": 0.3918, "total_contest": 6.5404, "won_contest": 4.3732, "ball_recovery": 3.5506, "challenges_lost": 0.319, "fouls": 0.7812, "fouls_drawn": 1.9611, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9223, "tackles_won": 0.839, "tackles": 1.5291, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4353, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2457, "goal_rate": 0.1298, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.4925, "total_shots": 1.2997, "expected_assists": 0.2178, "key_pass": 1.3906, "rating": 6.9339, "minutes": 74.78, "total_pass": 26.3874, "accurate_pass": 24.316, "duels_won": 7.8627, "total_long_balls": 0.7728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5017, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1396, "crosses_total": 1.3744, "crosses_accurate": 0.461, "touches": 46.4291, "possession_lost": 8.0751, "dispossessed": 1.4236, "duels_lost": 5.0878, "aerial_lost": 0.3918, "total_contest": 6.5404, "won_contest": 4.3732, "ball_recovery": 3.5506, "challenges_lost": 0.319, "fouls": 0.7812, "fouls_drawn": 1.9611, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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1.3858883380889893, "model_output": 1.3859, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1851 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0957 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0924 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0974 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0616 } ], "others": 0.162, "total": 1.3859, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.237083 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.103548 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.090734 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.087489 }, { 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0.02139 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.013444 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010334 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.008962 } ], "others_margin": -0.007154 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.086, "creation_factor": 1.0051 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.642, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8207, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6955, "team_expected_assists": 1.3136, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0006, "xa_scale": 1.8887, "opponent_lambda": 1.342, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1162, "after": 0.2325 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1054, "after": 0.1991 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1089 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0735 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0252 } ], "others": 0.0671, "total": 7.1929, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.108853 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.073505 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032045 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.028755 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.02518 } ], "others_margin": 0.067146 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9965, quality 0.470)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.1347, "assists": 0.1063, "assist_rate": 0.1063, "expected_goals": 0.072, "goals": 0.0844, "goal_rate": 0.0844, "shots_on_target": 0.2563, "total_shots": 1.2861, "rating": 7.1929, "minutes": 79.63, "total_pass": 60.4637, "accurate_pass": 55.8096, "duels_won": 2.9006, "total_long_balls": 4.942, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9565, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8355, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9251, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8845, "crosses_total": 2.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.6037, "touches": 73.6409, "possession_lost": 9.1889, "dispossessed": 1.473, "duels_lost": 3.0135, "aerial_won": 0.2269, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.5871, "tackles_won": 0.3481, "tackles": 0.8273, "clearances": 0.4825, "total_contest": 0.7327, "won_contest": 0.7327, "challenges_lost": 0.7965, "fouls": 0.744, "fouls_drawn": 1.2543, "blocks": 0.1195, "big_chances_created": 0.4962, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0992, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 48.8612, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "shots_off_target": 1.0298 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5600000, "quality_factor": 0.4695, "boost_factor": 0.9965, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0361)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.1347, "assists": 0.1152, "assist_rate": 0.1152, "expected_goals": 0.072, "goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.0814, "shots_on_target": 0.247, "total_shots": 1.2777, "rating": 7.1929, "minutes": 79.63, "total_pass": 60.4637, "accurate_pass": 55.8096, "duels_won": 2.9006, "total_long_balls": 4.942, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9565, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8355, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9251, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8845, "crosses_total": 2.0252, "crosses_accurate": 0.6037, "touches": 73.6409, "possession_lost": 9.1889, "dispossessed": 1.473, "duels_lost": 3.0135, "aerial_won": 0.2269, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.5426, "tackles_won": 0.3611, "tackles": 0.8273, "clearances": 0.4825, "total_contest": 0.7327, "won_contest": 0.7327, "challenges_lost": 0.7965, "fouls": 0.7299, "fouls_drawn": 1.2473, "blocks": 0.1195, "big_chances_created": 0.4962, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0992, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 48.8612, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "shots_off_target": 1.0298 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0361, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8848, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. A Coruña" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.0746, "after": 2.0252 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.5871, "after": 1.5426 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.744, "after": 0.7299 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.3481, "after": 0.3611 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2563, "after": 0.247 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1063, "after": 0.1152 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2861, "after": 1.2777 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2543, "after": 1.2473 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.1347, "assists": 0.1152, "assist_rate": 0.1152, "expected_goals": 0.072, "goals": 0.0814, "goal_rate": 0.0814, "shots_on_target": 0.247, "total_shots": 1.2777, "rating": 7.1929, "minutes": 79.63, "total_pass": 60.4637, "accurate_pass": 55.8096, "duels_won": 2.9006, "total_long_balls": 4.942, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9565, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8355, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9251, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8845, "crosses_total": 2.0252, "crosses_accurate": 0.6037, "touches": 73.6409, "possession_lost": 9.1889, "dispossessed": 1.473, "duels_lost": 3.0135, "aerial_won": 0.2269, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.5426, "tackles_won": 0.3611, "tackles": 0.8273, "clearances": 0.4825, "total_contest": 0.7327, "won_contest": 0.7327, "challenges_lost": 0.7965, "fouls": 0.7299, "fouls_drawn": 1.2473, "blocks": 0.1195, "big_chances_created": 0.4962, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0992, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 48.8612, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "shots_off_target": 1.0298 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.1347, "assists": 0.1152, "assist_rate": 0.1152, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goals": 0.0785, "goal_rate": 0.0785, "shots_on_target": 0.2382, "total_shots": 1.2323, "rating": 7.1929, "minutes": 79.63, "total_pass": 60.4637, "accurate_pass": 55.8096, "duels_won": 2.9006, "total_long_balls": 4.942, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9565, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8355, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9251, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8845, "crosses_total": 2.0252, "crosses_accurate": 0.6037, "touches": 73.6409, "possession_lost": 9.1889, "dispossessed": 1.473, "duels_lost": 3.0135, "aerial_won": 0.6, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.5426, "tackles_won": 0.3611, "tackles": 0.8273, "clearances": 0.4825, "total_contest": 0.7327, "won_contest": 0.7327, "challenges_lost": 0.7965, "fouls": 0.7299, "fouls_drawn": 1.2473, "blocks": 0.1195, "big_chances_created": 0.4962, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0957, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 48.8612, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "shots_off_target": 0.9932, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9645, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Moi Gómez", "opponent_faced": "Moi Gómez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Moi Gómez", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9645, "skill_edge": 0.0199, "height_edge": -0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.4816, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Moi Gómez", "market_value": 1600000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0694 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2269, "after": 0.6 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2777, "after": 1.2323 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0298, "after": 0.9932 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.247, "after": 0.2382 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.1347, "assist_rate": 0.1152, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0785, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2382, "total_shots": 1.2323, "rating": 7.1929, "minutes": 79.63, "total_pass": 60.4637, "accurate_pass": 55.8096, "duels_won": 2.9006, "total_long_balls": 4.942, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9565, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8355, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9251, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8845, "crosses_total": 2.0252, "crosses_accurate": 0.6037, "touches": 73.6409, "possession_lost": 9.1889, "dispossessed": 1.473, "duels_lost": 3.0135, "aerial_won": 0.6, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.5426, "tackles_won": 0.3611, "tackles": 0.8273, "clearances": 0.4825, "total_contest": 0.7327, "won_contest": 0.7327, "challenges_lost": 0.7965, "fouls": 0.7299, "fouls_drawn": 1.2473, "blocks": 0.1195, "big_chances_created": 0.4962, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0957, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 48.8612, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "shots_off_target": 0.9932, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9645, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Moi Gómez", "opponent_faced": "Moi Gómez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 0.8207, xG scale 2.0006, xA scale 1.8887, team xA 1.31 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.2544, "assist_rate": 0.1152, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goal_rate": 0.0785, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2382, "total_shots": 1.2323, "rating": 7.1929, "minutes": 79.63, "total_pass": 60.4637, "accurate_pass": 55.8096, "duels_won": 2.9006, "total_long_balls": 4.942, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9565, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8355, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9251, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8845, "crosses_total": 2.0252, "crosses_accurate": 0.6037, "touches": 73.6409, "possession_lost": 9.1889, "dispossessed": 1.473, "duels_lost": 3.0135, "aerial_won": 0.6, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.5426, "tackles_won": 0.3611, "tackles": 0.8273, "clearances": 0.4825, "total_contest": 0.7327, "won_contest": 0.7327, "challenges_lost": 0.7965, "fouls": 0.7299, "fouls_drawn": 1.2473, "blocks": 0.1195, "big_chances_created": 0.4962, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1915, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 48.8612, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "shots_off_target": 0.9932, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9645, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Moi Gómez", "opponent_faced": "Moi Gómez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0762, "creation_factor": 0.8944 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.642, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8207, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6955, "team_expected_assists": 1.3136, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0006, "xa_scale": 1.8887, "opponent_lambda": 1.342, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0694, "after": 0.1388 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1347, "after": 0.2544 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.2544, "assist_rate": 0.1152, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goal_rate": 0.0785, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2382, "total_shots": 1.2323, "rating": 7.1929, "minutes": 79.63, "total_pass": 60.4637, "accurate_pass": 55.8096, "duels_won": 2.9006, "total_long_balls": 4.942, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9565, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8355, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9251, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8845, "crosses_total": 2.0252, "crosses_accurate": 0.6037, "touches": 73.6409, "possession_lost": 9.1889, "dispossessed": 1.473, "duels_lost": 3.0135, "aerial_won": 0.6, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.5426, "tackles_won": 0.3611, "tackles": 0.8273, "clearances": 0.4825, "total_contest": 0.7327, "won_contest": 0.7327, "challenges_lost": 0.7965, "fouls": 0.7299, "fouls_drawn": 1.2473, "blocks": 0.1195, "big_chances_created": 0.4962, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1915, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 48.8612, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "shots_off_target": 0.9932, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9645, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Moi Gómez", "opponent_faced": "Moi Gómez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0762, "creation_factor": 0.8944, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3373, "fifa_rank": 2409.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.2544, "assist_rate": 0.1152, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goal_rate": 0.0785, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2382, "total_shots": 1.2323, "rating": 7.1929, "minutes": 79.63, "total_pass": 60.4637, "accurate_pass": 55.8096, "duels_won": 2.9006, "total_long_balls": 4.942, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9565, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8355, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9251, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8845, "crosses_total": 2.0252, "crosses_accurate": 0.6037, "touches": 73.6409, "possession_lost": 9.1889, "dispossessed": 1.473, "duels_lost": 3.0135, "aerial_won": 0.6, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.5426, "tackles_won": 0.3611, "tackles": 0.8273, "clearances": 0.4825, "total_contest": 0.7327, "won_contest": 0.7327, "challenges_lost": 0.7965, "fouls": 0.7299, "fouls_drawn": 1.2473, "blocks": 0.1195, "big_chances_created": 0.4962, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1915, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 48.8612, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "shots_off_target": 0.9932, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9645, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Moi Gómez", "opponent_faced": "Moi Gómez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1296, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0762, "creation_factor": 0.8944, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1296, "goal_rate": 0.0785, "scorer_weight": 0.1494, "squad_weight_total": 1.6989, "weight_share": 0.0879, "finishing_factor": 1.0762, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.4018, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4018, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2557 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yeremay Hernández", "weight": 0.2557, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2557, "runner_up": "Luismi Cruz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2525 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.2544, "assist_rate": 0.1152, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goal_rate": 0.0785, 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"assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0271, "expected_assists": 0.0868, "shots_on_target": 0.2678, "big_chances_created": 0.3778, "xgot": 0.0417, "ball_carries": 11.7115, "total_progression": 36.6242, "progressive_carries": 0.4993, "key_pass": 1.0163, "shots_off_target": 0.261 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-11-02T11:05:13.106082+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 631, "rows": 22117 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1868, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 47.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1588, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1349, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1147, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0975, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0829, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0704, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0599, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0509, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0433, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 10.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.9947, "aerialWon": 0.9317, "totalClearance_p90": 2.5192, "totalTackle": 0.5646, "totalTackle_p90": 0.9149 }, "per_target": [ { "target": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.118769 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116147 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.113112 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.049549 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.031953 } ], "others_margin": 0.052057 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.652945041656494, "model_output": 2.6529, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.51 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3951 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.3078 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2529 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0773 } ], "others": -0.0099, "total": 2.6529, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.161721 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127483 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.097889 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.088295 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.028603 } ], "others_margin": -0.003688 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.0406105518341064, "model_output": 1.0406, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2385 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1523 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0916 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0772 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0252 } ], "others": -0.0489, "total": 1.0406, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.191337 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126316 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.074002 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.066993 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.022895 } ], "others_margin": -0.045876 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5287759304046631, "model_output": 0.5288, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0583 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0298 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0312, "total": 0.5288, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058337 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029754 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.019422 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.01612 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.014753 } ], "others_margin": -0.031351 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.698540687561035, "model_output": 6.6985, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0252, "total": 6.6985, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019314 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017254 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015146 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012615 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.010807 } ], "others_margin": -0.025107 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9946, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0879, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7778, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.526, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, "accurate_pass": 20.7283, "duels_won": 3.8502, "total_long_balls": 3.3083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8126, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7353, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.993, "crosses_total": 3.6398, "crosses_accurate": 0.8195, "touches": 48.6565, "possession_lost": 12.3289, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 3.5454, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 1.0376, "won_contest": 0.6422, "ball_recovery": 3.6168, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 1.607, "fouls_drawn": 1.8879, "blocks": 0.1722, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "expected_assists": 0.0863, "shots_on_target": 0.2664, "big_chances_created": 0.3758, "xgot": 0.0415, "ball_carries": 11.6483, "total_progression": 36.4264, "progressive_carries": 0.4966, "key_pass": 1.0108, "shots_off_target": 0.2596 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9946, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.093, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7571, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.5032, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, "accurate_pass": 20.7283, "duels_won": 3.8502, "total_long_balls": 3.3083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8126, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7353, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.993, "crosses_total": 3.5734, "crosses_accurate": 0.8195, "touches": 48.6565, "possession_lost": 12.3289, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 3.5454, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 1.0376, "won_contest": 0.6422, "ball_recovery": 3.6168, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 1.5896, "fouls_drawn": 1.8713, "blocks": 0.1722, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "expected_assists": 0.0863, "shots_on_target": 0.2549, "big_chances_created": 0.3758, "xgot": 0.0415, "ball_carries": 11.6483, "total_progression": 36.4264, "progressive_carries": 0.4966, "key_pass": 1.0108, "shots_off_target": 0.2596 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0433, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9033, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.093, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7571, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.5145, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, "accurate_pass": 20.7283, "duels_won": 3.8502, "total_long_balls": 3.3083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8126, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7353, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.993, "crosses_total": 3.5734, "crosses_accurate": 0.8195, "touches": 48.6565, "possession_lost": 12.3289, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 3.5454, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 1.0376, "won_contest": 0.6422, "ball_recovery": 3.6168, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 1.5896, "fouls_drawn": 1.8713, "blocks": 0.1722, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "expected_assists": 0.0863, "shots_on_target": 0.2549, "big_chances_created": 0.3758, "xgot": 0.0415, "ball_carries": 11.6483, "total_progression": 36.4264, "progressive_carries": 0.4966, "key_pass": 1.0108, "shots_off_target": 0.2596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.784, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 0.8207, xG scale 2.0006, xA scale 1.8887, team xA 1.31 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.093, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7571, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.5145, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, "accurate_pass": 20.7283, "duels_won": 3.8502, "total_long_balls": 3.3083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8126, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7353, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.993, "crosses_total": 3.5734, "crosses_accurate": 0.8195, "touches": 48.6565, "possession_lost": 12.3289, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 3.5454, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 1.0376, "won_contest": 0.6422, "ball_recovery": 3.6168, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 1.5896, "fouls_drawn": 1.8713, "blocks": 0.1722, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.054, "expected_assists": 0.163, "shots_on_target": 0.2549, "big_chances_created": 0.3758, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 11.6483, "total_progression": 36.4264, "progressive_carries": 0.4966, "key_pass": 1.0108, "shots_off_target": 0.2596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.784, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.642, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8207, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6955, "team_expected_assists": 1.3136, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0006, "xa_scale": 1.8887, "opponent_lambda": 1.342, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.027, "after": 0.054 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0863, "after": 0.163 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.093, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7571, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.5145, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, "accurate_pass": 20.7283, "duels_won": 3.8502, "total_long_balls": 3.3083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8126, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7353, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.993, "crosses_total": 3.5734, "crosses_accurate": 0.8195, "touches": 48.6565, "possession_lost": 12.3289, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 3.5454, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 1.0376, "won_contest": 0.6422, "ball_recovery": 3.6168, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 1.5896, "fouls_drawn": 1.8713, "blocks": 0.1722, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.054, "expected_assists": 0.163, "shots_on_target": 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1.5896, "fouls_drawn": 1.8713, "blocks": 0.1722, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.054, "expected_assists": 0.163, "shots_on_target": 0.2549, "big_chances_created": 0.3758, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 11.6483, "total_progression": 36.4264, "progressive_carries": 0.4966, "key_pass": 1.0108, "shots_off_target": 0.2596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.784, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0526, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0526, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0432, "squad_weight_total": 1.6989, "weight_share": 0.0254, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.4018, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4018, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2557 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yeremay Hernández", "weight": 0.2557, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2557, "runner_up": "Luismi Cruz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2525 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.093, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7571, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.5145, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, 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0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.784, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0526, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1504, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1504, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.1304, "squad_weight_total": 1.1613, "weight_share": 0.1123, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mario Soriano", "weight": 0.2275, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2275, "runner_up": "Luismi Cruz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2001 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Luismi Cruz", 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"margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020471 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016085 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.013021 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.008851 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.006672 } ], "others_margin": 0.034063 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9816, "tackles": 1.4213, "tackles_won": 0.7946, "clearances": 5.2274, "aerial_won": 2.0517, "total_shots": 0.5604, "rating": 6.8658, "minutes": 79.83, "total_pass": 51.8874, "accurate_pass": 47.5053, "duels_won": 4.298, "total_long_balls": 5.625, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4829, "total_own_half_passes": 32.737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1785, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3268, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.1416, "possession_lost": 5.3434, "dispossessed": 0.0549, "duels_lost": 2.9423, "aerial_lost": 1.0212, "total_contest": 0.154, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 2.2976, "challenges_lost": 0.9092, "fouls": 0.9021, "fouls_drawn": 0.3535, "blocks": 0.8103, "goals": 0.0, 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0.9123 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9788, "tackles": 1.4213, "tackles_won": 0.7923, "clearances": 5.2274, "aerial_won": 2.0517, "total_shots": 0.5598, "rating": 6.8658, "minutes": 79.83, "total_pass": 51.8874, "accurate_pass": 47.5053, "duels_won": 4.298, "total_long_balls": 5.625, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4829, "total_own_half_passes": 32.737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1785, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3268, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.1416, "possession_lost": 5.3434, "dispossessed": 0.0549, "duels_lost": 2.9423, "aerial_lost": 1.0212, "total_contest": 0.154, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 2.2976, "challenges_lost": 0.9092, "fouls": 0.9123, "fouls_drawn": 0.3525, "blocks": 0.8103, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "expected_goals": 0.0607, 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"opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9788, "tackles": 1.4213, "tackles_won": 0.7923, "clearances": 5.2274, "aerial_won": 2.0517, "total_shots": 0.5598, "rating": 6.8658, "minutes": 79.83, "total_pass": 51.8874, "accurate_pass": 47.5053, "duels_won": 4.298, "total_long_balls": 5.625, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4829, "total_own_half_passes": 32.737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1785, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3268, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.1416, "possession_lost": 5.3434, "dispossessed": 0.0549, "duels_lost": 2.9423, "aerial_lost": 1.0212, "total_contest": 0.154, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 2.2976, "challenges_lost": 0.9092, "fouls": 0.9123, "fouls_drawn": 0.3525, "blocks": 0.8103, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0607, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "shots_on_target": 0.1655, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.0451, "ball_carries": 18.0209, "total_progression": 56.4034, "progressive_carries": 0.3915, "key_pass": 0.3463, "shots_off_target": 0.3943, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.784, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 0.8207, xG scale 2.0006, xA scale 1.8887, team xA 1.31 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9788, "tackles": 1.4213, "tackles_won": 0.7923, "clearances": 5.2274, "aerial_won": 2.0517, "total_shots": 0.5598, "rating": 6.8658, "minutes": 79.83, "total_pass": 51.8874, "accurate_pass": 47.5053, "duels_won": 4.298, "total_long_balls": 5.625, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4829, "total_own_half_passes": 32.737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1785, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3268, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.1416, "possession_lost": 5.3434, "dispossessed": 0.0549, "duels_lost": 2.9423, "aerial_lost": 1.0212, "total_contest": 0.154, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 2.2976, "challenges_lost": 0.9092, "fouls": 0.9123, "fouls_drawn": 0.3525, "blocks": 0.8103, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1214, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "shots_on_target": 0.1655, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.0902, "ball_carries": 18.0209, "total_progression": 56.4034, "progressive_carries": 0.3915, "key_pass": 0.3463, "shots_off_target": 0.3943, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.784, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.642, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8207, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6955, "team_expected_assists": 1.3136, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0006, "xa_scale": 1.8887, "opponent_lambda": 1.342, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0607, "after": 0.1214 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0182, "after": 0.0344 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9788, "tackles": 1.4213, "tackles_won": 0.7923, "clearances": 5.2274, "aerial_won": 2.0517, "total_shots": 0.5598, "rating": 6.8658, "minutes": 79.83, "total_pass": 51.8874, "accurate_pass": 47.5053, "duels_won": 4.298, "total_long_balls": 5.625, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4829, "total_own_half_passes": 32.737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1785, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3268, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.1416, "possession_lost": 5.3434, "dispossessed": 0.0549, "duels_lost": 2.9423, "aerial_lost": 1.0212, "total_contest": 0.154, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 2.2976, "challenges_lost": 0.9092, "fouls": 0.9123, "fouls_drawn": 0.3525, "blocks": 0.8103, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1214, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "shots_on_target": 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"importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0856 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0534 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0153 } ], "others": -0.0245, "total": 0.4189, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.085554 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053357 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.031044 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021305 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015346 } ], "others_margin": -0.024546 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.824776649475098, "model_output": 6.8248, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0079 } ], "others": 0.0229, "total": 6.8248, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.019836 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018137 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017187 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.010733 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.007907 } ], "others_margin": 0.022844 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1735, "tackles": 1.7789, "tackles_won": 1.0167, "clearances": 5.7354, "aerial_won": 1.3119, "total_shots": 0.4147, "rating": 6.8248, "minutes": 87.3, "total_pass": 62.661, "accurate_pass": 54.9216, "duels_won": 5.3083, "total_long_balls": 7.0361, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0866, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.8024, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.1193, "crosses_total": 0.3271, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 81.1477, "possession_lost": 9.9394, "dispossessed": 0.556, "duels_lost": 4.7937, "aerial_lost": 0.9899, "total_contest": 2.2983, "won_contest": 1.3084, "ball_recovery": 1.7017, "challenges_lost": 0.9408, "fouls": 1.317, "fouls_drawn": 0.3271, "blocks": 0.7118, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0107, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "shots_on_target": 0.3848, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "ball_carries": 28.6302, "total_progression": 128.8718, "progressive_carries": 1.7508, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0299 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1200000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9899, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0195)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2137, "tackles": 1.7789, "tackles_won": 1.0389, "clearances": 5.7354, "aerial_won": 1.3119, "total_shots": 0.4066, "rating": 6.8248, "minutes": 87.3, "total_pass": 62.661, "accurate_pass": 54.9216, "duels_won": 5.3083, "total_long_balls": 7.0361, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0866, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.8024, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.1193, "crosses_total": 0.3207, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 81.1477, "possession_lost": 9.9394, "dispossessed": 0.556, "duels_lost": 4.7937, "aerial_lost": 0.9899, "total_contest": 2.2983, "won_contest": 1.3084, "ball_recovery": 1.7017, "challenges_lost": 0.9408, "fouls": 1.3334, "fouls_drawn": 0.3207, "blocks": 0.7118, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0107, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "shots_on_target": 0.3773, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "ball_carries": 28.6302, "total_progression": 128.8718, "progressive_carries": 1.7508, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0299 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0195, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.97, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2137, "tackles": 1.7789, "tackles_won": 1.0389, "clearances": 5.7354, "aerial_won": 1.3119, "total_shots": 0.4072, "rating": 6.8248, "minutes": 87.3, "total_pass": 62.661, "accurate_pass": 54.9216, "duels_won": 5.3083, "total_long_balls": 7.0361, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0866, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.8024, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.1193, "crosses_total": 0.3207, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 81.1477, "possession_lost": 9.9394, "dispossessed": 0.556, "duels_lost": 4.7937, "aerial_lost": 0.9899, "total_contest": 2.2983, "won_contest": 1.3084, "ball_recovery": 1.7017, "challenges_lost": 0.9408, "fouls": 1.3334, "fouls_drawn": 0.3207, "blocks": 0.7118, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0107, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "shots_on_target": 0.3773, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "ball_carries": 28.6302, "total_progression": 128.8718, "progressive_carries": 1.7508, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0299, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.513, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 0.8207, xG scale 2.0006, xA scale 1.8887, team xA 1.31 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2137, "tackles": 1.7789, "tackles_won": 1.0389, "clearances": 5.7354, "aerial_won": 1.3119, "total_shots": 0.4072, "rating": 6.8248, "minutes": 87.3, "total_pass": 62.661, "accurate_pass": 54.9216, "duels_won": 5.3083, "total_long_balls": 7.0361, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0866, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.8024, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.1193, "crosses_total": 0.3207, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 81.1477, "possession_lost": 9.9394, "dispossessed": 0.556, "duels_lost": 4.7937, "aerial_lost": 0.9899, "total_contest": 2.2983, "won_contest": 1.3084, "ball_recovery": 1.7017, "challenges_lost": 0.9408, "fouls": 1.3334, "fouls_drawn": 0.3207, "blocks": 0.7118, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0214, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.3773, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.047, "ball_carries": 28.6302, "total_progression": 128.8718, "progressive_carries": 1.7508, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0299, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.513, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8237, "creation_factor": 0.8518 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.642, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8207, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6955, "team_expected_assists": 1.3136, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0006, "xa_scale": 1.8887, "opponent_lambda": 1.342, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0107, "after": 0.0214 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0087, "after": 0.0164 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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{ "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5749433040618896, "model_output": 0.5749, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5293 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1364 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0912 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.076 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0468 } ], "others": -0.0671, "total": 0.5749, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.48849 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.177043 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.138682 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116939 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.07037 } ], "others_margin": -0.110433 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4744524657726288, "model_output": 0.4745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1102 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": 0.0101, "total": 0.4745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.110169 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052917 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028985 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.024079 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.012615 } ], "others_margin": 0.010008 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.759018421173096, "model_output": 6.759, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0138 } ], "others": -0.0247, "total": 6.759, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018468 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016945 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015784 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014723 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.013794 } ], "others_margin": -0.024574 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8126, "tackles": 1.8436, "tackles_won": 1.1123, "clearances": 1.8516, "aerial_won": 0.5701, "total_shots": 0.4705, "rating": 6.759, "minutes": 83.33, "total_pass": 32.7723, "accurate_pass": 28.413, "duels_won": 4.8419, "total_long_balls": 1.8982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8402, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2549, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9302, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.158, "crosses_total": 1.7247, "crosses_accurate": 0.3822, "touches": 46.1323, "possession_lost": 7.8318, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6506, "aerial_lost": 0.2645, "total_contest": 1.9122, "won_contest": 0.9335, "ball_recovery": 3.4388, "challenges_lost": 0.5022, "fouls": 0.9052, "fouls_drawn": 1.9251, "blocks": 0.3112, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.8347, "total_progression": 54.8829, "progressive_carries": 0.6223, "key_pass": 0.5022, "shots_off_target": 0.4705 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0289)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8226, "tackles": 1.8436, "tackles_won": 1.1136, "clearances": 1.8516, "aerial_won": 0.5701, "total_shots": 0.4569, "rating": 6.759, "minutes": 83.33, "total_pass": 32.7723, "accurate_pass": 28.413, "duels_won": 4.8419, "total_long_balls": 1.8982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8402, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2549, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9302, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.158, "crosses_total": 1.725, "crosses_accurate": 0.3822, "touches": 46.1323, "possession_lost": 7.8318, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6506, "aerial_lost": 0.2645, "total_contest": 1.9122, "won_contest": 0.9335, "ball_recovery": 3.4388, "challenges_lost": 0.5022, "fouls": 0.9459, "fouls_drawn": 1.9196, "blocks": 0.3112, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.8347, "total_progression": 54.8829, "progressive_carries": 0.6223, "key_pass": 0.5022, "shots_off_target": 0.4705 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0289, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9259, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8226, "tackles": 1.8436, "tackles_won": 1.1136, "clearances": 1.8516, "aerial_won": 0.5701, "total_shots": 0.4705, "rating": 6.759, "minutes": 83.33, "total_pass": 32.7723, "accurate_pass": 28.413, "duels_won": 4.8419, "total_long_balls": 1.8982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8402, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2549, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9302, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.158, "crosses_total": 1.725, "crosses_accurate": 0.3822, "touches": 46.1323, "possession_lost": 7.8318, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6506, "aerial_lost": 0.2645, "total_contest": 1.9122, "won_contest": 0.9335, "ball_recovery": 3.4388, "challenges_lost": 0.5022, "fouls": 0.9459, "fouls_drawn": 1.9196, "blocks": 0.3112, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.8347, "total_progression": 54.8829, "progressive_carries": 0.6223, "key_pass": 0.5022, "shots_off_target": 0.4705, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.516, "opponent_faced": "Rubén García", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 0.8207, xG scale 2.0006, xA scale 1.8887, team xA 1.31 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8226, "tackles": 1.8436, "tackles_won": 1.1136, "clearances": 1.8516, "aerial_won": 0.5701, "total_shots": 0.4705, "rating": 6.759, "minutes": 83.33, "total_pass": 32.7723, "accurate_pass": 28.413, "duels_won": 4.8419, "total_long_balls": 1.8982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8402, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2549, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9302, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.158, "crosses_total": 1.725, "crosses_accurate": 0.3822, "touches": 46.1323, "possession_lost": 7.8318, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6506, "aerial_lost": 0.2645, "total_contest": 1.9122, "won_contest": 0.9335, "ball_recovery": 3.4388, "challenges_lost": 0.5022, "fouls": 0.9459, "fouls_drawn": 1.9196, "blocks": 0.3112, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0663, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.8347, "total_progression": 54.8829, "progressive_carries": 0.6223, "key_pass": 0.5022, "shots_off_target": 0.4705, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.516, "opponent_faced": "Rubén García", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.642, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8207, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6955, "team_expected_assists": 1.3136, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0006, "xa_scale": 1.8887, "opponent_lambda": 1.342, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0351, "after": 0.0663 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8226, "tackles": 1.8436, "tackles_won": 1.1136, "clearances": 1.8516, "aerial_won": 0.5701, "total_shots": 0.4705, "rating": 6.759, "minutes": 83.33, "total_pass": 32.7723, "accurate_pass": 28.413, "duels_won": 4.8419, "total_long_balls": 1.8982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8402, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2549, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9302, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.158, "crosses_total": 1.725, "crosses_accurate": 0.3822, "touches": 46.1323, "possession_lost": 7.8318, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6506, "aerial_lost": 0.2645, "total_contest": 1.9122, "won_contest": 0.9335, "ball_recovery": 3.4388, "challenges_lost": 0.5022, "fouls": 0.9459, "fouls_drawn": 1.9196, "blocks": 0.3112, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0663, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0077 } ], "others": 0.014, "total": 7.0582, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.01874 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.013087 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.009409 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.008246 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.007719 } ], "others_margin": 0.013859 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0001, quality 0.507)", "stats": { "saves": 2.86, "goals_prevented": 0.0178, "rating": 7.0582, "minutes": 84.76, "total_pass": 35.5684, "accurate_pass": 25.3181, "total_long_balls": 15.062, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0259, "touches": 42.2347, "clearances": 0.545, "ball_recovery": 6.3109, "high_claims": 0.8158, "punches": 0.342, "aerial_won": 0.1038, "sweeper_actions": 0.8358, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8358, "saves_inside_box": 1.3945, "possession_lost": 10.5202, "duels_won": 0.2644, "duels_lost": 0.0261, "total_contest": 0.0251, "won_contest": 0.0251, "fouls": 0.0011, "fouls_drawn": 0.1341, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.384 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8700000, "quality_factor": 0.5071, "boost_factor": 1.0001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8595, "goals_prevented": 0.0178, "rating": 7.0582, "minutes": 84.76, "total_pass": 35.5684, "accurate_pass": 25.3181, "total_long_balls": 15.062, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0259, "touches": 42.2347, "clearances": 0.545, "ball_recovery": 6.3109, "high_claims": 0.8158, "punches": 0.342, "aerial_won": 0.1038, "sweeper_actions": 0.8358, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8358, "saves_inside_box": 1.3945, "possession_lost": 10.5202, "duels_won": 0.2644, "duels_lost": 0.0261, "total_contest": 0.0251, "won_contest": 0.0251, "fouls": 0.0011, "fouls_drawn": 0.1323, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.384 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0135, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9418, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. A Coruña" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8595, "goals_prevented": 0.0178, "rating": 7.0582, "minutes": 84.76, "total_pass": 35.5684, "accurate_pass": 25.3181, "total_long_balls": 15.062, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0259, "touches": 42.2347, "clearances": 0.545, "ball_recovery": 6.3109, "high_claims": 0.8158, "punches": 0.342, "aerial_won": 0.1038, "sweeper_actions": 0.8358, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8358, "saves_inside_box": 1.3945, "possession_lost": 10.5202, "duels_won": 0.2644, "duels_lost": 0.0261, "total_contest": 0.0251, "won_contest": 0.0251, "fouls": 0.0011, "fouls_drawn": 0.1323, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.384 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8595, "goals_prevented": 0.0178, "rating": 7.0582, "minutes": 84.76, "total_pass": 35.5684, "accurate_pass": 25.3181, "total_long_balls": 15.062, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0259, "touches": 42.2347, "clearances": 0.545, "ball_recovery": 6.3109, "high_claims": 0.8158, "punches": 0.342, "aerial_won": 0.1038, "sweeper_actions": 0.8358, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8358, "saves_inside_box": 1.3945, "possession_lost": 10.5202, "duels_won": 0.2644, "duels_lost": 0.0261, "total_contest": 0.0251, "won_contest": 0.0251, "fouls": 0.0011, "fouls_drawn": 0.1323, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.384, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1665, "shots_faced": 11.1, "expected_saves": 2.72, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.1665 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8595, "goals_prevented": 0.0178, "rating": 7.0582, "minutes": 84.76, "total_pass": 35.5684, "accurate_pass": 25.3181, "total_long_balls": 15.062, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0259, "touches": 42.2347, "clearances": 0.545, "ball_recovery": 6.3109, "high_claims": 0.8158, "punches": 0.342, "aerial_won": 0.1038, "sweeper_actions": 0.8358, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8358, "saves_inside_box": 1.3945, "possession_lost": 10.5202, "duels_won": 0.2644, "duels_lost": 0.0261, "total_contest": 0.0251, "won_contest": 0.0251, "fouls": 0.0011, "fouls_drawn": 0.1323, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.384, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1665, "shots_faced": 11.1, "expected_saves": 2.72, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 0.8207, xG scale 2.0006, xA scale 1.8887, team xA 1.31 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8595, "goals_prevented": 0.0178, "rating": 7.0582, "minutes": 84.76, "total_pass": 35.5684, "accurate_pass": 25.3181, "total_long_balls": 15.062, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0259, "touches": 42.2347, "clearances": 0.545, "ball_recovery": 6.3109, "high_claims": 0.8158, "punches": 0.342, "aerial_won": 0.1038, "sweeper_actions": 0.8358, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8358, "saves_inside_box": 1.3945, "possession_lost": 10.5202, "duels_won": 0.2644, "duels_lost": 0.0261, "total_contest": 0.0251, "won_contest": 0.0251, "fouls": 0.0011, "fouls_drawn": 0.1323, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.384, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1665, "shots_faced": 12.7, "expected_saves": 3.1, "high_pressure_saves": 1.07, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.642, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8207, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6955, "team_expected_assists": 1.3136, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0006, "xa_scale": 1.8887, "opponent_lambda": 1.342, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.1, "after": 12.7 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.72, "after": 3.1 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.93, "after": 1.07 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8595, "goals_prevented": 0.0178, "rating": 7.0582, "minutes": 84.76, "total_pass": 35.5684, "accurate_pass": 25.3181, "total_long_balls": 15.062, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0259, "touches": 42.2347, "clearances": 0.545, "ball_recovery": 6.3109, "high_claims": 0.8158, "punches": 0.342, "aerial_won": 0.1038, "sweeper_actions": 0.8358, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8358, "saves_inside_box": 1.3945, "possession_lost": 10.5202, "duels_won": 0.2644, "duels_lost": 0.0261, "total_contest": 0.0251, "won_contest": 0.0251, "fouls": 0.0011, "fouls_drawn": 0.1323, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.384, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1665, "shots_faced": 12.7, "expected_saves": 3.1, "high_pressure_saves": 1.07, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2271, "fifa_rank": 1570.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8595, "goals_prevented": 0.0178, "rating": 7.0582, "minutes": 84.76, "total_pass": 35.5684, "accurate_pass": 25.3181, "total_long_balls": 15.062, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0259, "touches": 42.2347, "clearances": 0.545, 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0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.6989, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.4018, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4018, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2557 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yeremay Hernández", "weight": 0.2557, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2557, "runner_up": "Luismi Cruz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2525 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8595, "goals_prevented": 0.0178, "rating": 7.0582, "minutes": 84.76, "total_pass": 35.5684, "accurate_pass": 25.3181, "total_long_balls": 15.062, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0259, "touches": 42.2347, "clearances": 0.545, "ball_recovery": 6.3109, "high_claims": 0.8158, "punches": 0.342, 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álvaro Ferllo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Callum McGregor", "ranking": 3580 }, { "player_name": "Costinha", "ranking": 3581 }, { "player_name": "Gayà", "ranking": 3582 }, { "player_name": "Alisson Santos", "ranking": 3583 }, { "player_name": "Dakonam Djené", "ranking": 3584 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sivera", "ranking": 3586 }, { "player_name": "Kike García", "ranking": 3587 }, { "player_name": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "ranking": 3588 }, { "player_name": "Zubeldia", "ranking": 3589 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Rincón", "ranking": 3590 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ 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1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.950587 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.285859 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.097356 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.094111 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.050166 } ], "others_margin": -0.003622 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8379491567611694, "model_output": 0.8379, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8201 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1116 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0884 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0589 }, { "name": "aerialLost", 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0.0599 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0223 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 0.2663, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.215462 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.086495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.059872 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.024197 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.022306 } ], "others_margin": -0.019401 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.768535137176514, "model_output": 6.7685, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0353 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0102, "total": 6.7685, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.035271 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.021475 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01903 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018127 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.010397 } ], "others_margin": 0.010312 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.570137 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.410001 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.172765 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.08547 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.061207 } ], "others_margin": -0.313051 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20638205111026764, "model_output": 0.2064, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3166 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2496 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0244 } ], "others": -0.11, "total": 0.2064, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.316596 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.249585 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050569 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.027322 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.024358 } ], "others_margin": -0.110123 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.73248815536499, "model_output": 6.7325, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0975 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0119, "total": 6.7325, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.097508 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021931 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02046 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014275 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01122 } ], "others_margin": 0.011926 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.605)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3276, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assists": 0.0324, "assist_rate": 0.0324, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "goals": 0.0345, "goal_rate": 0.0345, "shots_on_target": 0.0637, "total_shots": 0.2074, "rating": 6.7325, "minutes": 18.28, "total_pass": 13.3699, "accurate_pass": 12.1358, "duels_won": 1.2868, "total_long_balls": 0.6623, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3894, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0445, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0912, "crosses_total": 0.168, "crosses_accurate": 0.0276, "touches": 16.9231, "possession_lost": 1.8919, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.5385, "aerial_won": 0.1285, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1152, "tackles_won": 0.3479, "tackles": 0.3805, "clearances": 0.2889, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.2656, "fouls_drawn": 0.7778, "blocks": 0.2384, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1014, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.844, "total_progression": 4.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1437 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17400000, "quality_factor": 0.6047, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.3 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4056, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "assists": 0.0401, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "expected_goals": 0.0264, "goals": 0.0427, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.2568, "rating": 6.7325, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1779, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.63, "projection_minutes": 18.28, "minutes_scale": 1.2382, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4056, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "assists": 0.0401, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "expected_goals": 0.0264, "goals": 0.0427, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.2568, "rating": 6.7325, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1779, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4056, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0264, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.2568, "rating": 6.7325, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1779, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.529, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4056, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0264, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.2568, "rating": 6.7325, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1779, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2842, "fifa_rank": 1246.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Angeliño": { "player_id": 848355, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 171, "market_value": 4200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0509, "assist_rate": 0.0608, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goal_rate": 0.0357, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 70, "possession_lost": 24.0288, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.501, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.03, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416343.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 5.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1704, "combined_rank_score": 690.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1185.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7243, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Angeliño", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arthur Theate", "ranking": 1699 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Kakhramonov", "ranking": 1700 }, { "player_name": "Wilson Odobert", "ranking": 1701 }, { "player_name": "Aitor Paredes", "ranking": 1702 }, { "player_name": "Danny Welbeck", "ranking": 1703 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Park Kyu-Min", "ranking": 1705 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Vidal", "ranking": 1706 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Adams", "ranking": 1707 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Jun-sun", "ranking": 1708 }, { "player_name": "Dan Burn", "ranking": 1709 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.548615 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.29336 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.190387 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.164609 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.095884 } ], "others_margin": -0.202593 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20964349806308746, "model_output": 0.2096, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2932 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2173 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.1057 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0814 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0508 } ], "others": -0.1897, "total": 0.2096, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.293226 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.217277 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.105696 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.081415 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050794 } ], "others_margin": -0.189714 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.724264621734619, "model_output": 6.7243, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0666 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0455 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0184 } ], "others": 0.0061, "total": 6.7243, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066551 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.045483 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.026166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019282 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.018363 } ], "others_margin": 0.005977 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9868, quality 0.452)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2992, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "assists": 0.0524, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goals": 0.0308, "goal_rate": 0.0308, "shots_on_target": 0.0852, "total_shots": 0.2069, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 29.604, "accurate_pass": 22.6964, "duels_won": 2.9604, "total_long_balls": 0.9868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7888, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8416, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.8152, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8548, "crosses_total": 4.934, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.1948, "possession_lost": 20.7228, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9472, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9868, "tackles_won": 0.9868, "tackles": 0.9868, "clearances": 1.9736, 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0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7307, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5865, "crosses_total": 5.7211, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.7979, "possession_lost": 24.0288, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5769, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1442, "tackles_won": 1.1442, "tackles": 1.1442, "clearances": 2.2885, "total_contest": 2.2885, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2885, "fouls_drawn": 2.2885, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8654, "total_progression": 8.1545, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.501, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.03 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.03, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1595, "appearance_probability": 0.501 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3469, "expected_assists": 0.0509, "assists": 0.0608, "assist_rate": 0.0608, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.0988, "total_shots": 0.2399, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.03, "total_pass": 34.3268, "accurate_pass": 26.3172, "duels_won": 3.4327, "total_long_balls": 1.1442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7307, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5865, "crosses_total": 5.7211, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.7979, "possession_lost": 24.0288, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5769, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1442, "tackles_won": 1.1442, "tackles": 1.1442, "clearances": 2.2885, "total_contest": 2.2885, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2885, "fouls_drawn": 2.2885, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8654, "total_progression": 8.1545, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.501, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.03 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3469, "expected_assists": 0.0509, "assist_rate": 0.0608, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goal_rate": 0.0357, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0988, "total_shots": 0.2399, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.03, "total_pass": 34.3268, "accurate_pass": 26.3172, "duels_won": 3.4327, "total_long_balls": 1.1442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7307, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5865, "crosses_total": 5.7211, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.7979, "possession_lost": 24.0288, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5769, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1442, "tackles_won": 1.1442, "tackles": 1.1442, "clearances": 2.2885, "total_contest": 2.2885, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2885, "fouls_drawn": 2.2885, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8654, "total_progression": 8.1545, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1411, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.501, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.03, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.501, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062126 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026433 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015168 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013497 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011095 } ], "others_margin": -0.045834 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goals": 0.0749, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "shots_on_target": 0.2941, "total_shots": 0.7336, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "key_pass": 0.3699, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 17.12, "total_pass": 5.912, "accurate_pass": 5.0681, "duels_won": 0.9899, "total_long_balls": 0.3125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7073, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.7783, "possession_lost": 1.0696, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6733, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.5383, "won_contest": 0.3125, "ball_recovery": 0.4915, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.1919, "fouls_drawn": 0.2258, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4516, "clearances": 0.2656, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1579, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7031, "total_progression": 5.8731, "progressive_carries": 0.4177, "shots_off_target": 0.4395 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9959, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.1 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.43, "projection_minutes": 17.12, "minutes_scale": 1.4853, "appearance_probability": 0.565 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 0.8207, xG scale 2.0006, xA scale 1.8887, team xA 1.31 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0899, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.051, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2651, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.642, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8207, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6955, "team_expected_assists": 1.3136, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0006, "xa_scale": 1.8887, "opponent_lambda": 1.342, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0795, "after": 0.0899 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0899, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.051, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2651, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5662, "fifa_rank": 6954.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0899, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.051, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2651, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0831, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0831, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "scorer_weight": 0.112, "squad_weight_total": 1.6989, "weight_share": 0.0659, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.4018, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4018, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2557 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yeremay Hernández", "weight": 0.2557, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2557, "runner_up": "Luismi Cruz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2525 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0899, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.051, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 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"assist_probability": 0.0488, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0488, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0408, "squad_weight_total": 1.1613, "weight_share": 0.0351, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mario Soriano", "weight": 0.2275, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2275, "runner_up": "Luismi Cruz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2001 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Luismi Cruz", "weight": 0.2001, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2001, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1742 } ] } } ] }, "Adama Traoré": { "player_id": 286165, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 178, "market_value": 5700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goal_rate": 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"contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.009, "total": 6.7045, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062257 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018115 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01434 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010843 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.00945 } ], "others_margin": -0.008983 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0506, "goals": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "shots_on_target": 0.1598, "total_shots": 0.5772, "expected_assists": 0.0771, "key_pass": 0.5006, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 24.35, "total_pass": 6.4871, "accurate_pass": 5.5554, "duels_won": 1.8474, "total_long_balls": 0.3594, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7297, "crosses_total": 2.0941, "crosses_accurate": 0.6644, "touches": 15.3874, "possession_lost": 5.8837, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.1444, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8493, "won_contest": 0.8638, "ball_recovery": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6161, "fouls_drawn": 0.552, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3366, "tackles": 0.3366, "clearances": 0.1442, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2822, "big_chances_missed": 0.0486, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.4993, "total_progression": 53.8829, "progressive_carries": 2.1316, "shots_off_target": 0.4174 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5700000, "quality_factor": 0.4708, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.4 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0805, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.42, "projection_minutes": 24.35, "minutes_scale": 1.0441, "appearance_probability": 0.565 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0805, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0805, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 0.8207, xG scale 2.0006, xA scale 1.8887, team xA 1.31 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.001, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9874, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.642, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8207, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6955, "team_expected_assists": 1.3136, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0006, "xa_scale": 1.8887, "opponent_lambda": 1.342, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0528, "after": 0.0597 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0805, "after": 0.0859 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.001, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9874, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6326, "fifa_rank": 8353.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.001, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0567, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9874, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0567, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "scorer_weight": 0.0589, "squad_weight_total": 1.6989, "weight_share": 0.0347, "finishing_factor": 0.9874, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.4018, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4018, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2557 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yeremay Hernández", "weight": 0.2557, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2557, "runner_up": "Luismi Cruz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2525 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.001, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0567, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0797, "finishing_factor": 0.9874, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0797, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0687, "squad_weight_total": 1.1613, "weight_share": 0.0592, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mario Soriano", "weight": 0.2275, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2275, "runner_up": "Luismi Cruz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2001 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Luismi Cruz", "weight": 0.2001, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2001, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1742 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Jonathan Asp Jensen": { "player_id": 1146545, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 182, "market_value": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goals": 0.0749, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "shots_on_target": 0.2941, "total_shots": 0.7336, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "key_pass": 0.3699, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 17.12, "total_pass": 5.912, "accurate_pass": 5.0681, "duels_won": 0.9899, "total_long_balls": 0.3125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7073, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.7783, "possession_lost": 1.0696, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6733, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.5383, "won_contest": 0.3125, "ball_recovery": 0.4915, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.1919, "fouls_drawn": 0.2258, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4516, "clearances": 0.2656, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1579, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7031, "total_progression": 5.8731, "progressive_carries": 0.4177, "shots_off_target": 0.4395 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9959, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.1 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.43, "projection_minutes": 17.12, "minutes_scale": 1.4853, "appearance_probability": 0.565 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 0.8207, xG scale 2.0006, xA scale 1.8887, team xA 1.31 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0899, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.051, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2651, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.642, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8207, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6955, "team_expected_assists": 1.3136, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0006, "xa_scale": 1.8887, "opponent_lambda": 1.342, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0795, "after": 0.0899 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0899, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.051, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2651, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5662, "fifa_rank": 6954.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0899, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.051, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2651, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0831, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0831, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "scorer_weight": 0.112, "squad_weight_total": 1.6989, "weight_share": 0.0659, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.4018, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4018, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2557 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yeremay Hernández", "weight": 0.2557, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2557, "runner_up": "Luismi Cruz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2525 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0899, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.051, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0506, "goals": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "shots_on_target": 0.1598, "total_shots": 0.5772, "expected_assists": 0.0771, "key_pass": 0.5006, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 24.35, "total_pass": 6.4871, "accurate_pass": 5.5554, "duels_won": 1.8474, "total_long_balls": 0.3594, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2879, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7297, "crosses_total": 2.0941, "crosses_accurate": 0.6644, "touches": 15.3874, "possession_lost": 5.8837, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.1444, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.8493, "won_contest": 0.8638, "ball_recovery": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6161, "fouls_drawn": 0.552, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3366, "tackles": 0.3366, "clearances": 0.1442, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2822, "big_chances_missed": 0.0486, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.4993, "total_progression": 53.8829, "progressive_carries": 2.1316, "shots_off_target": 0.4174 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5700000, "quality_factor": 0.4708, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.4 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0805, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.42, "projection_minutes": 24.35, "minutes_scale": 1.0441, "appearance_probability": 0.565 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0805, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0805, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 0.8207, xG scale 2.0006, xA scale 1.8887, team xA 1.31 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.001, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9874, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.642, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8207, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6955, "team_expected_assists": 1.3136, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0006, "xa_scale": 1.8887, "opponent_lambda": 1.342, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0528, "after": 0.0597 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0805, "after": 0.0859 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.001, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9874, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6326, "fifa_rank": 8353.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.001, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0567, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9874, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0567, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "scorer_weight": 0.0589, "squad_weight_total": 1.6989, "weight_share": 0.0347, "finishing_factor": 0.9874, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.4018, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4018, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2557 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yeremay Hernández", "weight": 0.2557, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2557, "runner_up": "Luismi Cruz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2525 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0.6027, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "key_pass": 0.5227, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.7733, "accurate_pass": 5.8005, "duels_won": 1.9289, "total_long_balls": 0.3753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3006, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7461, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8942, "crosses_total": 2.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.6937, "touches": 16.0663, "possession_lost": 6.1433, "dispossessed": 1.2432, "duels_lost": 3.2831, "aerial_lost": 0.2627, "total_contest": 1.9309, "won_contest": 0.9019, "ball_recovery": 1.1555, "challenges_lost": 0.047, "fouls": 0.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.5764, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, "tackles": 0.3514, "clearances": 0.1506, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2946, "big_chances_missed": 0.0507, "xgot": 0.001, "offsides": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 6.786, "total_progression": 56.2601, "progressive_carries": 2.2256, "shots_off_target": 0.4358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.466, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0567, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0797, "finishing_factor": 0.9874, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0797, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0687, "squad_weight_total": 1.1613, "weight_share": 0.0592, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mario Soriano", "weight": 0.2275, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2275, "runner_up": "Luismi Cruz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2001 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Luismi Cruz", "weight": 0.2001, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2001, "runner_up": "Yeremay Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1742 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.64, "expected_assists": 1.31, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 413, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2 } }, "Osasuna": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Jonathan Dubasin": { "player_id": 1094517, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 180, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2104, "goal_rate": 0.2315, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0948, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.4605, "dispossessed": 1.785, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0435 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0384 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": 0.0193, "total": 6.7965, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.043475 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038353 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.027463 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015982 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012678 } ], "others_margin": 0.019275 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9949, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1801, "goals": 0.2334, "goal_rate": 0.2334, "shots_on_target": 0.5344, "total_shots": 1.4929, "expected_assists": 0.0804, "key_pass": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 69.73, "total_pass": 26.9737, "accurate_pass": 22.5484, "duels_won": 2.9394, "total_long_balls": 1.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7694, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3904, "crosses_total": 0.5039, "crosses_accurate": 0.1917, "touches": 46.2877, "possession_lost": 12.4605, "dispossessed": 1.785, "duels_lost": 6.0699, "aerial_lost": 0.5776, "total_contest": 3.3438, "won_contest": 0.8161, "ball_recovery": 3.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.7225, "fouls": 0.7694, "fouls_drawn": 0.2255, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.8744, "tackles_won": 0.9366, "tackles": 1.3938, "clearances": 1.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2653, "xgot": 0.4239, "offsides": 0.5308, "ball_carries": 11.1849, "total_progression": 31.0814, "progressive_carries": 0.2653, "shots_off_target": 0.9585 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.9949, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0188)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1801, "goals": 0.229, "goal_rate": 0.229, "shots_on_target": 0.536, "total_shots": 1.488, "expected_assists": 0.0804, "key_pass": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 69.73, "total_pass": 26.9737, "accurate_pass": 22.5484, "duels_won": 2.9394, "total_long_balls": 1.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7694, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3904, "crosses_total": 0.5056, 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"before": 0.5308, "after": 0.5208 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7694, "after": 0.7773 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2255, "after": 0.2325 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1801, "goals": 0.229, "goal_rate": 0.229, "shots_on_target": 0.536, "total_shots": 1.4945, "expected_assists": 0.0804, "key_pass": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 69.73, "total_pass": 26.9737, "accurate_pass": 22.5484, "duels_won": 2.9394, "total_long_balls": 1.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7694, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3904, "crosses_total": 0.5056, "crosses_accurate": 0.1917, "touches": 46.2877, "possession_lost": 12.4605, "dispossessed": 1.785, "duels_lost": 6.0699, "aerial_lost": 0.5776, "total_contest": 3.3438, "won_contest": 0.8161, "ball_recovery": 3.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.7225, "fouls": 0.7773, "fouls_drawn": 0.2325, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.8916, "tackles_won": 0.919, "tackles": 1.3938, "clearances": 1.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2653, "xgot": 0.4239, "offsides": 0.5208, "ball_carries": 11.1849, "total_progression": 31.0814, "progressive_carries": 0.2653, "shots_off_target": 0.9585 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.182, "goals": 0.2315, "goal_rate": 0.2315, "shots_on_target": 0.5417, "total_shots": 1.5105, "expected_assists": 0.0804, "key_pass": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 69.73, "total_pass": 26.9737, "accurate_pass": 22.5484, "duels_won": 2.9394, "total_long_balls": 1.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7694, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3904, "crosses_total": 0.5056, "crosses_accurate": 0.1917, "touches": 46.2877, "possession_lost": 12.4605, "dispossessed": 1.785, "duels_lost": 6.0699, "aerial_lost": 0.5776, "total_contest": 3.3438, "won_contest": 0.8161, "ball_recovery": 3.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.7225, "fouls": 0.7773, "fouls_drawn": 0.2325, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.8916, "tackles_won": 0.919, "tackles": 1.3938, "clearances": 1.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2681, "xgot": 0.4284, "offsides": 0.5208, "ball_carries": 11.1849, "total_progression": 31.0814, "progressive_carries": 0.2653, "shots_off_target": 0.9688, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0107, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.487, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Miguel Loureiro", "opponent_faced": "Miguel Loureiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Miguel Loureiro", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.487, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0107, "skill_edge": 0.0073, "height_edge": 0.0, "attacker_skill": 0.4535, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Miguel Loureiro", "market_value": 1200000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.182 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4945, "after": 1.5105 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9585, "after": 0.9688 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.536, "after": 0.5417 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.182, "goal_rate": 0.2315, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5417, "total_shots": 1.5105, "expected_assists": 0.0804, "key_pass": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 69.73, "total_pass": 26.9737, "accurate_pass": 22.5484, "duels_won": 2.9394, "total_long_balls": 1.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7694, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3904, "crosses_total": 0.5056, "crosses_accurate": 0.1917, "touches": 46.2877, "possession_lost": 12.4605, "dispossessed": 1.785, "duels_lost": 6.0699, "aerial_lost": 0.5776, "total_contest": 3.3438, "won_contest": 0.8161, "ball_recovery": 3.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.7225, "fouls": 0.7773, "fouls_drawn": 0.2325, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8916, "tackles_won": 0.919, "tackles": 1.3938, "clearances": 1.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2681, "xgot": 0.4284, "offsides": 0.5208, "ball_carries": 11.1849, "total_progression": 31.0814, "progressive_carries": 0.2653, "shots_off_target": 0.9688, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0107, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.487, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Miguel Loureiro", "opponent_faced": "Miguel Loureiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.1611, xG scale 1.1558, xA scale 1.1792, team xA 0.87 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2104, "goal_rate": 0.2315, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5417, "total_shots": 1.5105, "expected_assists": 0.0948, "key_pass": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 69.73, "total_pass": 26.9737, "accurate_pass": 22.5484, "duels_won": 2.9394, "total_long_balls": 1.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7694, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3904, "crosses_total": 0.5056, "crosses_accurate": 0.1917, "touches": 46.2877, "possession_lost": 12.4605, "dispossessed": 1.785, "duels_lost": 6.0699, "aerial_lost": 0.5776, "total_contest": 3.3438, "won_contest": 0.8161, "ball_recovery": 3.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.7225, "fouls": 0.7773, "fouls_drawn": 0.2325, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8916, "tackles_won": 0.919, "tackles": 1.3938, "clearances": 1.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2681, "xgot": 0.4951, "offsides": 0.5208, "ball_carries": 11.1849, "total_progression": 31.0814, "progressive_carries": 0.2653, "shots_off_target": 0.9688, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0107, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.487, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Miguel Loureiro", "opponent_faced": "Miguel Loureiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2134, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.342, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1611, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7397, "team_expected_assists": 0.8723, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1558, "xa_scale": 1.1792, "opponent_lambda": 1.642, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.182, "after": 0.2104 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0804, "after": 0.0948 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2104, "goal_rate": 0.2315, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5417, "total_shots": 1.5105, "expected_assists": 0.0948, "key_pass": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 69.73, "total_pass": 26.9737, "accurate_pass": 22.5484, "duels_won": 2.9394, "total_long_balls": 1.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7694, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3904, "crosses_total": 0.5056, "crosses_accurate": 0.1917, "touches": 46.2877, "possession_lost": 12.4605, "dispossessed": 1.785, "duels_lost": 6.0699, "aerial_lost": 0.5776, "total_contest": 3.3438, "won_contest": 0.8161, "ball_recovery": 3.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.7225, "fouls": 0.7773, "fouls_drawn": 0.2325, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8916, "tackles_won": 0.919, "tackles": 1.3938, "clearances": 1.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2681, "xgot": 0.4951, "offsides": 0.5208, "ball_carries": 11.1849, "total_progression": 31.0814, "progressive_carries": 0.2653, "shots_off_target": 0.9688, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0107, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.487, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Miguel Loureiro", "opponent_faced": "Miguel Loureiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2134, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2777, "fifa_rank": 1404.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2104, "goal_rate": 0.2315, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5417, "total_shots": 1.5105, "expected_assists": 0.0948, "key_pass": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 69.73, "total_pass": 26.9737, "accurate_pass": 22.5484, "duels_won": 2.9394, "total_long_balls": 1.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7694, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3904, "crosses_total": 0.5056, "crosses_accurate": 0.1917, "touches": 46.2877, "possession_lost": 12.4605, "dispossessed": 1.785, "duels_lost": 6.0699, "aerial_lost": 0.5776, "total_contest": 3.3438, "won_contest": 0.8161, "ball_recovery": 3.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.7225, "fouls": 0.7773, "fouls_drawn": 0.2325, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8916, "tackles_won": 0.919, "tackles": 1.3938, "clearances": 1.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2681, "xgot": 0.4951, "offsides": 0.5208, "ball_carries": 11.1849, "total_progression": 31.0814, "progressive_carries": 0.2653, "shots_off_target": 0.9688, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0107, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.487, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Miguel Loureiro", "opponent_faced": "Miguel Loureiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1897, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2134, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1897, "goal_rate": 0.2315, "scorer_weight": 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], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2693 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1254 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0646 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0268 } ], "others": -0.0929, "total": 0.6155, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.269258 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125359 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.064621 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041171 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.026787 } ], "others_margin": -0.092993 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.856936931610107, "model_output": 6.8569, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": 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"Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031796 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021186 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013414 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009783 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008896 } ], "others_margin": -0.04201 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8585, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "assists": 0.0692, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "expected_goals": 0.0379, "goals": 0.0633, "goal_rate": 0.0633, "shots_on_target": 0.1752, "total_shots": 0.5435, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 81.5, "total_pass": 34.8163, "accurate_pass": 29.4887, "duels_won": 2.5889, "total_long_balls": 4.9177, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8728, "total_own_half_passes": 16.3624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8035, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4539, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6852, "crosses_total": 2.467, "crosses_accurate": 0.5076, "touches": 47.0972, "possession_lost": 9.2928, "dispossessed": 0.5917, "duels_lost": 3.4124, "aerial_won": 0.4309, "aerial_lost": 0.6231, "interceptions": 0.5678, "tackles_won": 0.8813, "tackles": 1.6131, "clearances": 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2.8728, "total_own_half_passes": 16.3624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8035, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4539, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6852, "crosses_total": 2.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.5076, "touches": 47.0972, "possession_lost": 9.2928, "dispossessed": 0.5917, "duels_lost": 3.4124, "aerial_won": 0.4309, "aerial_lost": 0.6231, "interceptions": 0.581, "tackles_won": 0.8912, "tackles": 1.6131, "clearances": 1.4188, "total_contest": 0.148, "won_contest": 0.1168, "challenges_lost": 0.9842, "fouls": 1.1908, "fouls_drawn": 0.4239, "blocks": 0.0485, "big_chances_created": 0.0357, "big_chances_missed": 0.0081, "xgot": 0.0147, "ball_carries": 10.1278, "total_progression": 20.3861, "progressive_carries": 0.5755, "shots_off_target": 0.3683 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0106, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9056, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", 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"total_own_half_passes": 16.3624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8035, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4539, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6852, "crosses_total": 2.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.5076, "touches": 47.0972, "possession_lost": 9.2928, "dispossessed": 0.5917, "duels_lost": 3.4124, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6231, "interceptions": 0.581, "tackles_won": 0.8912, "tackles": 1.6131, "clearances": 1.4188, "total_contest": 0.148, "won_contest": 0.1168, "challenges_lost": 0.9842, "fouls": 1.1908, "fouls_drawn": 0.4239, "blocks": 0.0485, "big_chances_created": 0.0357, "big_chances_missed": 0.0089, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 10.1278, "total_progression": 20.3861, "progressive_carries": 0.5755, "shots_off_target": 0.4053, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1004, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.518, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Soriano", "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.518, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1004, "skill_edge": 0.0083, "height_edge": 0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.5, "defender_skill": 0.4816, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Mario Soriano", "market_value": 5600000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4816 } ], "xg_override": 0.0417 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4309, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5455, "after": 0.6003 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3683, "after": 0.4053 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1772, "after": 0.195 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0626, "after": 0.0689 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8585, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "assist_rate": 0.0685, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.195, "total_shots": 0.6003, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 81.5, "total_pass": 34.8163, "accurate_pass": 29.4887, "duels_won": 2.5889, "total_long_balls": 4.9177, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8728, "total_own_half_passes": 16.3624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8035, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4539, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6852, "crosses_total": 2.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.5076, "touches": 47.0972, "possession_lost": 9.2928, "dispossessed": 0.5917, "duels_lost": 3.4124, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6231, "interceptions": 0.581, 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1502 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1133 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0951 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0425 } ], "others": -0.1625, "total": 0.834, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.22186 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128267 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.095237 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.087626 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.041735 } ], "others_margin": -0.177957 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3779699504375458, "model_output": 0.378, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1304 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": -0.0248, "total": 0.378, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.130439 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049134 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024796 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.014732 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.012975 } ], "others_margin": -0.024884 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.697070121765137, "model_output": 6.6971, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 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minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.996, "tackles": 2.0527, "tackles_won": 1.3267, "clearances": 2.45, "aerial_won": 0.8321, "total_shots": 0.3772, "rating": 6.6971, "minutes": 88.87, "total_pass": 33.1266, "accurate_pass": 26.4312, "duels_won": 4.4501, "total_long_balls": 4.6505, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5515, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1001, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3311, "crosses_total": 1.7767, "crosses_accurate": 0.3683, "touches": 56.3498, "possession_lost": 13.0986, "dispossessed": 0.4254, "duels_lost": 3.9691, "aerial_lost": 0.7082, "total_contest": 1.4688, "won_contest": 0.6557, "ball_recovery": 5.1158, "challenges_lost": 0.975, "fouls": 1.0963, "fouls_drawn": 0.7503, "blocks": 0.2857, "goals": 0.0074, 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false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016228 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015645 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008826 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008303 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.007282 } ], "others_margin": -0.004571 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0026, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9187, "tackles": 1.3778, "tackles_won": 0.823, "clearances": 5.5208, "aerial_won": 1.6091, "total_shots": 0.4727, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 86.41, "total_pass": 45.584, "accurate_pass": 41.2619, "duels_won": 2.6116, "total_long_balls": 4.715, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6519, "total_own_half_passes": 32.4336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.306, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9559, "crosses_total": 0.1347, "crosses_accurate": 0.0034, "touches": 57.3616, "possession_lost": 5.0946, "dispossessed": 0.1858, "duels_lost": 2.5441, "aerial_lost": 1.3474, "total_contest": 0.1769, "won_contest": 0.1007, "ball_recovery": 3.5485, "challenges_lost": 0.1048, "fouls": 0.8518, "fouls_drawn": 0.0738, "blocks": 0.4503, "goals": 0.0069, 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"contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0139 } ], "others": 0.0089, "total": 0.5778, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055256 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019925 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01662 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.015186 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.013857 } ], "others_margin": 0.008912 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.916417121887207, "model_output": 6.9164, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0023, "total": 6.9164, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.039523 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.038937 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.033507 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.018802 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.010771 } ], "others_margin": -0.002361 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0968, "tackles": 1.1272, "tackles_won": 0.622, "clearances": 5.907, "aerial_won": 2.0544, "total_shots": 0.5766, "rating": 6.9164, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 54.8101, "accurate_pass": 46.5534, "duels_won": 3.3203, "total_long_balls": 11.656, "accurate_long_balls": 5.875, "total_own_half_passes": 32.6781, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.233, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3205, "crosses_total": 0.044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0408, "touches": 67.6802, "possession_lost": 9.1501, "dispossessed": 0.1744, "duels_lost": 3.207, "aerial_lost": 1.557, "total_contest": 0.2905, "won_contest": 0.1456, "ball_recovery": 2.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1997, "fouls": 1.2205, "fouls_drawn": 0.4815, "blocks": 0.918, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1121, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1015, "expected_assists": 0.0959, "shots_on_target": 0.3152, "big_chances_created": 0.1209, "xgot": 0.1401, "ball_carries": 21.0483, "total_progression": 92.7432, "progressive_carries": 0.5319, "key_pass": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804, "opponent_faced": "Yeremay Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.1611, xG scale 1.1558, xA scale 1.1792, team xA 0.87 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0968, "tackles": 1.1272, "tackles_won": 0.622, "clearances": 5.907, "aerial_won": 2.0544, "total_shots": 0.5766, "rating": 6.9164, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 54.8101, "accurate_pass": 46.5534, "duels_won": 3.3203, "total_long_balls": 11.656, "accurate_long_balls": 5.875, "total_own_half_passes": 32.6781, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.233, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3205, "crosses_total": 0.044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0408, "touches": 67.6802, "possession_lost": 9.1501, "dispossessed": 0.1744, "duels_lost": 3.207, "aerial_lost": 1.557, "total_contest": 0.2905, "won_contest": 0.1456, "ball_recovery": 2.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1997, "fouls": 1.2205, "fouls_drawn": 0.4815, "blocks": 0.918, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1121, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1173, "expected_assists": 0.1131, "shots_on_target": 0.3152, "big_chances_created": 0.1209, "xgot": 0.1619, "ball_carries": 21.0483, "total_progression": 92.7432, "progressive_carries": 0.5319, "key_pass": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804, "opponent_faced": "Yeremay Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.111 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.342, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1611, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7397, "team_expected_assists": 0.8723, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1558, "xa_scale": 1.1792, "opponent_lambda": 1.642, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1015, "after": 0.1173 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0959, "after": 0.1131 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": 0.5504, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057267 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.032354 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022486 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.016585 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013052 } ], "others_margin": -0.027579 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.740437030792236, "model_output": 6.7404, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0122, "total": 6.7404, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020289 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018508 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015999 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015821 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012564 } ], "others_margin": -0.012179 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.122, "tackles": 1.8079, "tackles_won": 1.0652, "clearances": 2.497, "aerial_won": 0.729, "total_shots": 0.549, "rating": 6.7404, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 32.2832, "accurate_pass": 26.7307, "duels_won": 3.8224, "total_long_balls": 4.0146, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7514, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.177, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5537, "crosses_total": 1.9163, "crosses_accurate": 0.6174, "touches": 54.6289, "possession_lost": 10.1379, "dispossessed": 0.6693, "duels_lost": 2.9979, "aerial_lost": 0.5384, "total_contest": 1.3444, "won_contest": 0.8608, "ball_recovery": 3.9187, "challenges_lost": 0.3864, "fouls": 0.9219, "fouls_drawn": 0.9261, "blocks": 0.3094, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "assists": 0.0012, "assist_rate": 0.0012, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.1046, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 13.3752, "total_progression": 56.9688, "progressive_carries": 1.4343, "key_pass": 0.683, "shots_off_target": 0.4728 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.122, "tackles": 1.8079, "tackles_won": 1.0652, "clearances": 2.497, "aerial_won": 0.729, "total_shots": 0.549, "rating": 6.7404, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 32.2832, "accurate_pass": 26.7307, "duels_won": 3.8224, "total_long_balls": 4.0146, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7514, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.177, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5537, "crosses_total": 1.9163, "crosses_accurate": 0.6174, "touches": 54.6289, "possession_lost": 10.1379, "dispossessed": 0.6693, "duels_lost": 2.9979, "aerial_lost": 0.5384, "total_contest": 1.3444, "won_contest": 0.8608, "ball_recovery": 3.9187, "challenges_lost": 0.3864, "fouls": 0.9219, "fouls_drawn": 0.9261, "blocks": 0.3094, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "assists": 0.0012, "assist_rate": 0.0012, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.1046, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 13.3752, "total_progression": 56.9688, "progressive_carries": 1.4343, "key_pass": 0.683, "shots_off_target": 0.4728 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.122, "tackles": 1.8079, "tackles_won": 1.0652, "clearances": 2.497, "aerial_won": 0.729, "total_shots": 0.549, "rating": 6.7404, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 32.2832, "accurate_pass": 26.7307, "duels_won": 3.8224, "total_long_balls": 4.0146, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7514, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.177, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5537, "crosses_total": 1.9163, "crosses_accurate": 0.6174, "touches": 54.6289, "possession_lost": 10.1379, "dispossessed": 0.6693, "duels_lost": 2.9979, "aerial_lost": 0.5384, "total_contest": 1.3444, "won_contest": 0.8608, "ball_recovery": 3.9187, "challenges_lost": 0.3864, "fouls": 0.9219, "fouls_drawn": 0.9261, "blocks": 0.3094, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "assists": 0.0012, "assist_rate": 0.0012, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.1046, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 13.3752, "total_progression": 56.9688, "progressive_carries": 1.4343, "key_pass": 0.683, "shots_off_target": 0.4728, "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.122, "tackles": 1.8079, "tackles_won": 1.0652, "clearances": 2.497, "aerial_won": 0.729, "total_shots": 0.549, "rating": 6.7404, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 32.2832, "accurate_pass": 26.7307, "duels_won": 3.8224, "total_long_balls": 4.0146, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7514, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.177, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5537, "crosses_total": 1.9163, "crosses_accurate": 0.6174, "touches": 54.6289, "possession_lost": 10.1379, "dispossessed": 0.6693, "duels_lost": 2.9979, "aerial_lost": 0.5384, "total_contest": 1.3444, "won_contest": 0.8608, "ball_recovery": 3.9187, "challenges_lost": 0.3864, "fouls": 0.9219, "fouls_drawn": 0.9261, "blocks": 0.3094, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0012, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.1046, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 13.3752, "total_progression": 56.9688, "progressive_carries": 1.4343, "key_pass": 0.683, "shots_off_target": 0.4728, "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.1611, xG scale 1.1558, xA scale 1.1792, team xA 0.87 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.122, "tackles": 1.8079, "tackles_won": 1.0652, "clearances": 2.497, "aerial_won": 0.729, "total_shots": 0.549, "rating": 6.7404, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 32.2832, "accurate_pass": 26.7307, "duels_won": 3.8224, "total_long_balls": 4.0146, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7514, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.177, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5537, "crosses_total": 1.9163, "crosses_accurate": 0.6174, "touches": 54.6289, "possession_lost": 10.1379, "dispossessed": 0.6693, "duels_lost": 2.9979, "aerial_lost": 0.5384, "total_contest": 1.3444, "won_contest": 0.8608, "ball_recovery": 3.9187, "challenges_lost": 0.3864, "fouls": 0.9219, "fouls_drawn": 0.9261, "blocks": 0.3094, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0012, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.072, "shots_on_target": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.1046, "xgot": 0.0187, "ball_carries": 13.3752, "total_progression": 56.9688, "progressive_carries": 1.4343, "key_pass": 0.683, "shots_off_target": 0.4728, "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0076, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.342, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1611, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7397, "team_expected_assists": 0.8723, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1558, "xa_scale": 1.1792, "opponent_lambda": 1.642, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0611, "after": 0.072 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.122, "tackles": 1.8079, "tackles_won": 1.0652, "clearances": 2.497, "aerial_won": 0.729, "total_shots": 0.549, "rating": 6.7404, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 32.2832, "accurate_pass": 26.7307, "duels_won": 3.8224, "total_long_balls": 4.0146, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7514, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.177, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5537, "crosses_total": 1.9163, "crosses_accurate": 0.6174, "touches": 54.6289, "possession_lost": 10.1379, "dispossessed": 0.6693, "duels_lost": 2.9979, "aerial_lost": 0.5384, "total_contest": 1.3444, "won_contest": 0.8608, "ball_recovery": 3.9187, "challenges_lost": 0.3864, "fouls": 0.9219, "fouls_drawn": 0.9261, "blocks": 0.3094, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0012, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.072, 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0.1356, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-08", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 46.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 8.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 15.8774, "accurateLongBalls": 6.5088, "possessionLostCtrl": 10.2998, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.0553, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.7572, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7572 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9578330516815186, "model_output": 2.9578, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { 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"importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0622 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0403 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0284 } ], "others": 0.0137, "total": -0.0264, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.062223 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.040565 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.040286 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.035272 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.028428 } ], 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"history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.131, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9978, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Osasuna", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (42 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.13); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.5873, "goals_prevented": -0.1197, "rating": 6.9972, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.4357, "accurate_pass": 17.2261, "total_long_balls": 13.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4239, "touches": 33.2462, "clearances": 0.9724, "ball_recovery": 7.7986, "high_claims": 0.5837, "punches": 0.7406, "aerial_won": 0.159, "sweeper_actions": 0.7422, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6845, "saves_inside_box": 0.8303, "possession_lost": 7.3371, "duels_won": 0.6943, "duels_lost": 0.0226, "total_contest": 0.1276, "won_contest": 0.1276, "fouls": 0.1488, "fouls_drawn": 0.2575, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0755 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-02T11:04:17.745135+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-08", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 13.0755, "accurateLongBalls": 6.4239, "possessionLostCtrl": 7.3371, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.2409, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.4842, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7869 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.587333917617798, "model_output": 2.5873, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1291 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0635 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0601 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0186 } ], "others": -0.0415, "total": 2.5873, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.045198 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.023004 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.022258 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008252 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007058 } ], "others_margin": -0.015878 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.11974576115608215, "model_output": -0.1197, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0451 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0297 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.025 } ], "others": -0.0643, "total": -0.1197, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.045079 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.042165 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.029709 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.025299 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024998 } ], "others_margin": -0.064363 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9971513748168945, "model_output": 6.9972, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0053, "total": 6.9972, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.035307 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027545 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016621 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.016288 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.014454 } ], "others_margin": -0.005447 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.5816, "goals_prevented": -0.1195, "rating": 6.9972, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.3819, "accurate_pass": 17.1882, "total_long_balls": 13.4263, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4098, "touches": 33.1731, "clearances": 0.9703, "ball_recovery": 7.7814, "high_claims": 0.5824, "punches": 0.739, "aerial_won": 0.1587, "sweeper_actions": 0.7406, "sweeper_accurate": 0.683, "saves_inside_box": 0.8285, "possession_lost": 7.321, "duels_won": 0.6928, "duels_lost": 0.0226, "total_contest": 0.1273, "won_contest": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.1485, "fouls_drawn": 0.2569, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0467 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0138)", "stats": { "saves": 2.5503, "goals_prevented": -0.1195, "rating": 6.9972, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.3819, "accurate_pass": 17.1882, "total_long_balls": 13.4263, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4098, "touches": 33.1731, "clearances": 0.9703, "ball_recovery": 7.7814, "high_claims": 0.5824, "punches": 0.739, "aerial_won": 0.1587, "sweeper_actions": 0.7406, "sweeper_accurate": 0.683, "saves_inside_box": 0.8285, "possession_lost": 7.321, "duels_won": 0.6928, "duels_lost": 0.0226, "total_contest": 0.1273, "won_contest": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.1479, "fouls_drawn": 0.2563, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0467 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0138, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.5816, "after": 2.5503 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.393, "goals_prevented": -0.0184, "rating": 6.9972, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.7576, "accurate_pass": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 2.0692, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9878, "touches": 5.1124, "clearances": 0.1495, "ball_recovery": 1.1992, "high_claims": 0.0898, "punches": 0.1139, "aerial_won": 0.0245, "sweeper_actions": 0.1141, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1053, "saves_inside_box": 0.1277, "possession_lost": 1.1283, "duels_won": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 0.0035, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0196, "fouls": 0.0228, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.131 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.393, "goals_prevented": -0.0184, "rating": 6.9972, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.7576, "accurate_pass": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 2.0692, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9878, "touches": 5.1124, "clearances": 0.1495, "ball_recovery": 1.1992, "high_claims": 0.0898, "punches": 0.1139, "aerial_won": 0.0245, "sweeper_actions": 0.1141, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1053, "saves_inside_box": 0.1277, "possession_lost": 1.1283, "duels_won": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 0.0035, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0196, "fouls": 0.0228, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.393, "goals_prevented": -0.0184, "rating": 6.9972, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.7576, "accurate_pass": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 2.0692, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9878, "touches": 5.1124, "clearances": 0.1495, "ball_recovery": 1.1992, "high_claims": 0.0898, "punches": 0.1139, "aerial_won": 0.0245, "sweeper_actions": 0.1141, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1053, "saves_inside_box": 0.1277, "possession_lost": 1.1283, "duels_won": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 0.0035, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0196, "fouls": 0.0228, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.131, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.393, "goals_prevented": -0.0184, "rating": 6.9972, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.7576, "accurate_pass": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 2.0692, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9878, "touches": 5.1124, "clearances": 0.1495, "ball_recovery": 1.1992, "high_claims": 0.0898, "punches": 0.1139, "aerial_won": 0.0245, "sweeper_actions": 0.1141, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1053, "saves_inside_box": 0.1277, "possession_lost": 1.1283, "duels_won": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 0.0035, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0196, "fouls": 0.0228, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1581, "fifa_rank": 954.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Jorge Herrando": { "player_id": 944225, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 192, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7485, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 1.1384, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, 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0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4612 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0613, "total": 0.2561, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.784749 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.062484 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.05545 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.04036 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.040014 } ], "others_margin": -0.214572 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.6850155591964722, "model_output": 1.685, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 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0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7759 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": 0.048, "total": 0.5973, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.835798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.109478 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.047635 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.040093 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.023981 } ], "others_margin": 0.08382 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.12358330935239792, "model_output": 0.1236, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.187 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0889 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0432, "total": 0.1236, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.187041 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.088945 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017084 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012383 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008967 } ], "others_margin": -0.043245 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.748486518859863, "model_output": 6.7485, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0023, "total": 6.7485, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020444 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015589 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01424 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.011464 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.00929 } ], "others_margin": -0.002194 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.5764, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.58, "projection_minutes": 24.44, "minutes_scale": 0.5557, "appearance_probability": 0.217 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1907, "tackles": 0.2476, "tackles_won": 0.141, "clearances": 0.9339, "aerial_won": 0.331, "total_shots": 0.0704, "rating": 6.7485, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 6.0557, "accurate_pass": 5.0503, "duels_won": 0.9317, "total_long_balls": 0.6409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2771, "total_own_half_passes": 3.256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7998, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.279, "crosses_total": 0.0371, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.665, "possession_lost": 1.1384, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7794, "aerial_lost": 0.3254, 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.217, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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1507914, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 48, "height": 189, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6794, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 4.1186, "dispossessed": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 47, 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0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0812 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0005, "total": 6.7109, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027804 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025102 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006297 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.005568 } ], "others_margin": -0.000574 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.485)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5401, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "assists": 0.0504, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "shots_on_target": 0.1725, "total_shots": 0.4394, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4902, "accurate_pass": 7.6037, "duels_won": 1.5166, "total_long_balls": 0.4063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2324, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.138, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4657, "crosses_total": 0.2995, "crosses_accurate": 0.1739, "touches": 13.7565, "possession_lost": 3.4186, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 2.5535, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1478, "tackles": 0.2956, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2406, "won_contest": 0.2406, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.6997, "fouls_drawn": 0.9804, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7292, "total_progression": 18.6166, "progressive_carries": 0.6987, "shots_off_target": 0.2669 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6900000, "quality_factor": 0.4854, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5401, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goals": 0.0374, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "shots_on_target": 0.1709, "total_shots": 0.4377, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4902, "accurate_pass": 7.6037, "duels_won": 1.5166, "total_long_balls": 0.4063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2324, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.138, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4657, "crosses_total": 0.3003, "crosses_accurate": 0.1739, "touches": 13.7565, "possession_lost": 3.4186, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 2.5535, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1464, "tackles": 0.2956, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2406, "won_contest": 0.2406, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.6955, "fouls_drawn": 0.9784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7292, "total_progression": 18.6166, "progressive_carries": 0.6987, "shots_off_target": 0.2669 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2186, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.7 to 14.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goals": 0.0284, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2024, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.92, "projection_minutes": 19.67, "minutes_scale": 0.7585, "appearance_probability": 0.439 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goals": 0.0284, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2024, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2024, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.1611, xG scale 1.1558, xA scale 1.1792, team xA 0.87 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2024, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9691, "creation_factor": 1.0813 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.342, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1611, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7397, "team_expected_assists": 0.8723, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1558, "xa_scale": 1.1792, "opponent_lambda": 1.642, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.439 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0309, "after": 0.0157 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0312, "after": 0.0162 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2024, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9691, "creation_factor": 1.0813, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3320, "fifa_rank": 1976.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2024, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0154, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9691, "creation_factor": 1.0813, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0154, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "scorer_weight": 0.0152, "squad_weight_total": 1.4159, "weight_share": 0.0107, "finishing_factor": 0.9691, "appearance_weight": 0.439, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.511, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, 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"contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0023 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.002 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 0.0371, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.541132 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.115848 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.056068 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.051891 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.045174 } ], "others_margin": -0.187336 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03591689094901085, "model_output": 0.0359, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", 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{ "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1497 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0271, "total": 0.1247, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.636786 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049744 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.044471 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.028338 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.020745 } ], "others_margin": -0.197389 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.44265642762184143, "model_output": 0.4427, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3888 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0622 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0232 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 0.4427, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.388798 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.062231 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037696 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.023235 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.023203 } ], "others_margin": -0.007116 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.700950622558594, "model_output": 6.701, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0847 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": -0.0131, "total": 6.701, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08467 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036381 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01082 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.006396 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.004951 } ], "others_margin": -0.013236 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2406, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "assists": 0.0338, "assist_rate": 0.0338, "expected_goals": 0.037, "goals": 0.0358, "goal_rate": 0.0358, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.4417, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 7.4275, "accurate_pass": 5.8958, "duels_won": 1.132, "total_long_balls": 0.82, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2203, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1752, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7206, "crosses_total": 0.1873, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1726, "possession_lost": 2.0653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8787, "aerial_won": 0.7856, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1873, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1591, "clearances": 0.8058, 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3.3343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1752, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7206, "crosses_total": 0.1862, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1726, "possession_lost": 2.0653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8787, "aerial_won": 0.7856, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1862, "tackles_won": 0.0018, "tackles": 0.1591, "clearances": 0.8058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4157, "fouls_drawn": 0.1862, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4713, "total_progression": 0.3855, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3173 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.006, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.191, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 18.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4387, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.14, "projection_minutes": 17.19, "minutes_scale": 1.0553, "appearance_probability": 0.564 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4387, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4387, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.1611, xG scale 1.1558, xA scale 1.1792, team xA 0.87 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0254, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4387, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9843, "creation_factor": 1.2427 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.342, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1611, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7397, "team_expected_assists": 0.8723, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1558, "xa_scale": 1.1792, "opponent_lambda": 1.642, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.564 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.039, "after": 0.0254 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0188, "after": 0.0125 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0561 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0755, "total": 6.5925, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.05607 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014935 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012807 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011029 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.010482 } ], "others_margin": -0.075507 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9945, quality 0.479)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0792, "goals": 0.0605, "goal_rate": 0.0605, "shots_on_target": 0.2461, "total_shots": 0.5885, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "key_pass": 0.2822, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 18.69, "total_pass": 6.8808, "accurate_pass": 6.8808, "duels_won": 1.9083, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2682, "crosses_total": 1.4515, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2407, "possession_lost": 1.4515, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5375, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.457, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.457, "tackles": 0.457, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.989, "total_progression": 4.306, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3424 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6400000, "quality_factor": 0.4793, "boost_factor": 0.9945, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.7 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1079, "goals": 0.0824, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 0.8016, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 0.3844, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.46, "projection_minutes": 18.69, "minutes_scale": 1.3621, "appearance_probability": 0.566 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1079, "goals": 0.0824, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 0.8016, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 0.3844, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1079, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 0.8016, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 0.3844, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.1611, xG scale 1.1558, xA scale 1.1792, team xA 0.87 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 0.8016, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.3844, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8385, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.342, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1611, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7397, "team_expected_assists": 0.8723, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1558, "xa_scale": 1.1792, "opponent_lambda": 1.642, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.566 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1079, "after": 0.0706 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0373, "after": 0.0249 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 0.8016, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.3844, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8385, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3024, "fifa_rank": 1827.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 0.8016, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.3844, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8385, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "scorer_weight": 0.0592, "squad_weight_total": 1.4159, "weight_share": 0.0418, "finishing_factor": 0.8385, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.511, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 0.8016, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.3844, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0244, "finishing_factor": 0.8385, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0244, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0199, "squad_weight_total": 0.8339, "weight_share": 0.0239, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén García", "weight": 0.1294, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1294, "runner_up": "Alejandro Catena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1257, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] }, "Raúl Moro": { "player_id": 980383, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 169, "market_value": 3300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 4.9256, 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"match_id": 16421085.0, "match_date": "2026-10-26", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421078.0, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 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"prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9963, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0507, "goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "shots_on_target": 0.1854, "total_shots": 0.588, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 23.22, "total_pass": 7.7128, "accurate_pass": 6.0526, "duels_won": 0.8689, "total_long_balls": 0.4596, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2116, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6617, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3016, "crosses_total": 2.1102, "crosses_accurate": 0.5175, "touches": 14.4925, "possession_lost": 5.2368, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.6344, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.631, "won_contest": 0.6832, "ball_recovery": 1.1764, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1464, "assists": 0.0285, "assist_rate": 0.0285, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0394, "clearances": 0.1425, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0296, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0015, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.506, "total_progression": 41.0978, "progressive_carries": 1.8247, "shots_off_target": 0.4026 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3300000, "quality_factor": 0.4412, "boost_factor": 0.9963, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0507, "goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "shots_on_target": 0.1851, "total_shots": 0.587, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 23.22, "total_pass": 7.7128, "accurate_pass": 6.0526, "duels_won": 0.8689, "total_long_balls": 0.4596, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2116, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6617, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3016, "crosses_total": 2.1067, "crosses_accurate": 0.5175, "touches": 14.4925, "possession_lost": 5.2368, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.6344, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.631, "won_contest": 0.6832, "ball_recovery": 1.1764, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1462, "assists": 0.0285, "assist_rate": 0.0285, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0394, "clearances": 0.1425, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0296, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0015, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.506, "total_progression": 41.0978, "progressive_carries": 1.8247, "shots_off_target": 0.4026 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 21, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.258, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.2 to 21.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.84, "projection_minutes": 23.22, "minutes_scale": 0.9406, "appearance_probability": 0.719 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.1611, xG scale 1.1558, xA scale 1.1792, team xA 0.87 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9949, "creation_factor": 0.8232 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.342, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1611, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7397, "team_expected_assists": 0.8723, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1558, "xa_scale": 1.1792, "opponent_lambda": 1.642, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.719 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0477, "after": 0.0396 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0433, "after": 0.0367 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9949, "creation_factor": 0.8232, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3622, "fifa_rank": 2407.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0385, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9949, "creation_factor": 0.8232, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0385, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "scorer_weight": 0.0394, "squad_weight_total": 1.4159, "weight_share": 0.0278, "finishing_factor": 0.9949, "appearance_weight": 0.719, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.511, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0385, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0358, "finishing_factor": 0.9949, "creation_factor": 0.8232, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0358, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "provider_weight": 0.0302, "squad_weight_total": 0.8339, "weight_share": 0.0362, "creation_factor": 0.8232, "appearance_weight": 0.719, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén García", "weight": 0.1294, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1294, "runner_up": "Alejandro Catena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1257, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Raúl Moro": { "player_id": 980383, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 169, "market_value": 3300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0012, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0385, 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"Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.124, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416305.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0443, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, 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"model_output": 0.4192, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2657 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": -0.0079, "total": 0.4192, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.484748 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063658 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.051347 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.049408 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034532 } ], "others_margin": -0.018647 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.637673377990723, "model_output": 6.6377, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0334, "total": 6.6377, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056984 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031813 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014206 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013078 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012327 } ], "others_margin": -0.033411 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9963, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0507, "goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "shots_on_target": 0.1854, "total_shots": 0.588, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 23.22, "total_pass": 7.7128, "accurate_pass": 6.0526, "duels_won": 0.8689, "total_long_balls": 0.4596, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2116, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6617, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3016, "crosses_total": 2.1102, "crosses_accurate": 0.5175, "touches": 14.4925, "possession_lost": 5.2368, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.6344, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.631, "won_contest": 0.6832, "ball_recovery": 1.1764, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1464, "assists": 0.0285, "assist_rate": 0.0285, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0394, "clearances": 0.1425, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0296, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0015, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.506, "total_progression": 41.0978, "progressive_carries": 1.8247, "shots_off_target": 0.4026 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3300000, "quality_factor": 0.4412, "boost_factor": 0.9963, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0507, "goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "shots_on_target": 0.1851, "total_shots": 0.587, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.4176, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 23.22, "total_pass": 7.7128, "accurate_pass": 6.0526, "duels_won": 0.8689, "total_long_balls": 0.4596, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2116, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6617, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3016, "crosses_total": 2.1067, "crosses_accurate": 0.5175, "touches": 14.4925, "possession_lost": 5.2368, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.6344, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.631, "won_contest": 0.6832, "ball_recovery": 1.1764, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1462, "assists": 0.0285, "assist_rate": 0.0285, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0394, "clearances": 0.1425, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0296, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0015, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.506, "total_progression": 41.0978, "progressive_carries": 1.8247, "shots_off_target": 0.4026 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 21, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.258, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.2 to 21.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.84, "projection_minutes": 23.22, "minutes_scale": 0.9406, "appearance_probability": 0.719 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.1611, xG scale 1.1558, xA scale 1.1792, team xA 0.87 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9949, "creation_factor": 0.8232 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.342, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1611, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7397, "team_expected_assists": 0.8723, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1558, "xa_scale": 1.1792, "opponent_lambda": 1.642, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.719 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0477, "after": 0.0396 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0433, "after": 0.0367 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9949, "creation_factor": 0.8232, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3622, "fifa_rank": 2407.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0385, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9949, "creation_factor": 0.8232, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0385, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "scorer_weight": 0.0394, "squad_weight_total": 1.4159, "weight_share": 0.0278, "finishing_factor": 0.9949, "appearance_weight": 0.719, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.511, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0396, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0385, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0358, "finishing_factor": 0.9949, "creation_factor": 0.8232, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0358, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "provider_weight": 0.0302, "squad_weight_total": 0.8339, "weight_share": 0.0362, "creation_factor": 0.8232, "appearance_weight": 0.719, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén García", "weight": 0.1294, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1294, "runner_up": "Alejandro Catena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1257, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] }, "Romain Del Castillo": { "player_id": 825681, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 172, "market_value": 6400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1079, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 0.8016, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 0.3844, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.1611, xG scale 1.1558, xA scale 1.1792, team xA 0.87 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 0.8016, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.3844, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8385, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.342, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1611, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7397, "team_expected_assists": 0.8723, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1558, "xa_scale": 1.1792, "opponent_lambda": 1.642, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.566 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1079, "after": 0.0706 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0373, "after": 0.0249 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 0.8016, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.3844, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8385, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3024, "fifa_rank": 1827.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 0.8016, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.3844, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8385, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "scorer_weight": 0.0592, "squad_weight_total": 1.4159, "weight_share": 0.0418, "finishing_factor": 0.8385, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.511, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 0.8016, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.3844, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0244, "finishing_factor": 0.8385, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0244, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0199, "squad_weight_total": 0.8339, "weight_share": 0.0239, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén García", "weight": 0.1294, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1294, "runner_up": "Alejandro Catena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1257, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] }, "Lucas Torró": { "player_id": 187313, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 190, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0254, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, 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"latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421085.0, "match_date": "2026-10-26", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0612, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 42, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421078.0, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Real 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"base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0847 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": -0.0131, "total": 6.701, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08467 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036381 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01082 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.006396 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.004951 } ], "others_margin": -0.013236 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2406, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "assists": 0.0338, "assist_rate": 0.0338, "expected_goals": 0.037, "goals": 0.0358, "goal_rate": 0.0358, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.4417, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 7.4275, "accurate_pass": 5.8958, "duels_won": 1.132, "total_long_balls": 0.82, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2203, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1752, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7206, "crosses_total": 0.1873, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1726, "possession_lost": 2.0653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8787, "aerial_won": 0.7856, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1873, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1591, "clearances": 0.8058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4173, "fouls_drawn": 0.1873, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4713, "total_progression": 0.3855, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3173 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0060)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2406, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "assists": 0.0336, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "expected_goals": 0.037, "goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.1237, "total_shots": 0.4399, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 7.4275, "accurate_pass": 5.8958, "duels_won": 1.132, "total_long_balls": 0.82, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2203, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1752, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7206, "crosses_total": 0.1862, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1726, "possession_lost": 2.0653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8787, "aerial_won": 0.7856, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1862, "tackles_won": 0.0018, "tackles": 0.1591, "clearances": 0.8058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4157, "fouls_drawn": 0.1862, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4713, "total_progression": 0.3855, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3173 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.006, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.191, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 18.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4387, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.14, "projection_minutes": 17.19, "minutes_scale": 1.0553, "appearance_probability": 0.564 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4387, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4387, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.1611, xG scale 1.1558, xA scale 1.1792, team xA 0.87 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0254, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4387, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9843, "creation_factor": 1.2427 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.342, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1611, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7397, "team_expected_assists": 0.8723, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1558, "xa_scale": 1.1792, "opponent_lambda": 1.642, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.564 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.039, "after": 0.0254 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0188, "after": 0.0125 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0254, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4387, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9843, "creation_factor": 1.2427, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3360, "fifa_rank": 1953.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0254, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4387, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0248, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9843, "creation_factor": 1.2427, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "scorer_weight": 0.025, "squad_weight_total": 1.4159, "weight_share": 0.0177, "finishing_factor": 0.9843, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.511, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0254, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4387, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0248, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0124, "finishing_factor": 0.9843, "creation_factor": 1.2427, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0124, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "provider_weight": 0.0155, "squad_weight_total": 0.8339, "weight_share": 0.0186, "creation_factor": 1.2427, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén García", "weight": 0.1294, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1294, "runner_up": "Alejandro Catena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1257, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] }, "Aimar Oroz": { "player_id": 985329, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 177, "market_value": 6900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, 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{ "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.022 } ], "others": 0.0806, "total": 0.4397, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.357859 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.234312 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031571 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.024004 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.022005 } ], "others_margin": 0.080531 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7108893394470215, "model_output": 6.7109, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0812 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0005, "total": 6.7109, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027804 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025102 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006297 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.005568 } ], "others_margin": -0.000574 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.485)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5401, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "assists": 0.0504, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "shots_on_target": 0.1725, "total_shots": 0.4394, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4902, "accurate_pass": 7.6037, "duels_won": 1.5166, "total_long_balls": 0.4063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2324, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.138, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4657, "crosses_total": 0.2995, "crosses_accurate": 0.1739, "touches": 13.7565, "possession_lost": 3.4186, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 2.5535, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1478, "tackles": 0.2956, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2406, "won_contest": 0.2406, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.6997, "fouls_drawn": 0.9804, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7292, "total_progression": 18.6166, "progressive_carries": 0.6987, "shots_off_target": 0.2669 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6900000, "quality_factor": 0.4854, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5401, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goals": 0.0374, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "shots_on_target": 0.1709, "total_shots": 0.4377, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4902, "accurate_pass": 7.6037, "duels_won": 1.5166, "total_long_balls": 0.4063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2324, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.138, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4657, "crosses_total": 0.3003, "crosses_accurate": 0.1739, "touches": 13.7565, "possession_lost": 3.4186, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 2.5535, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1464, "tackles": 0.2956, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2406, "won_contest": 0.2406, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.6955, "fouls_drawn": 0.9784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7292, "total_progression": 18.6166, "progressive_carries": 0.6987, "shots_off_target": 0.2669 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2186, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.7 to 14.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goals": 0.0284, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2024, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.92, "projection_minutes": 19.67, "minutes_scale": 0.7585, "appearance_probability": 0.439 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goals": 0.0284, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2024, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2024, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.1611, xG scale 1.1558, xA scale 1.1792, team xA 0.87 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2024, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9691, "creation_factor": 1.0813 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.342, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1611, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7397, "team_expected_assists": 0.8723, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1558, "xa_scale": 1.1792, "opponent_lambda": 1.642, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.439 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0309, "after": 0.0157 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0312, "after": 0.0162 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2024, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9691, "creation_factor": 1.0813, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3320, "fifa_rank": 1976.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2024, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0154, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9691, "creation_factor": 1.0813, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0154, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "scorer_weight": 0.0152, "squad_weight_total": 1.4159, "weight_share": 0.0107, "finishing_factor": 0.9691, "appearance_weight": 0.439, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.511, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4097, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1296, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2024, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0154, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0159, "finishing_factor": 0.9691, "creation_factor": 1.0813, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.0378, "provider_weight": 0.0175, "squad_weight_total": 0.8339, "weight_share": 0.021, "creation_factor": 1.0813, "appearance_weight": 0.439, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén García", "weight": 0.1294, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1294, "runner_up": "Alejandro Catena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1257, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.34, "expected_assists": 0.87, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 413, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yeremay Hernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.196, "xg_contribution": 0.1229, "xg_multiplier": 0.9939, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yeremay Hernández (ST) is evenly matched against Enzo Boyomo and Alejandro Catena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.123 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bil Nsongo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2019, "xg_multiplier": 0.9217, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bil Nsongo (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Enzo Boyomo and Alejandro Catena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.202 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Luismi Cruz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 166, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1162, "xg_multiplier": 0.847, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luismi Cruz (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Enzo Boyomo and Alejandro Catena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.85 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.116 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "David Mella", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4500000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.456, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0926, "xg_multiplier": 0.8593, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Mella (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Enzo Boyomo and Alejandro Catena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.093 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mario Soriano", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5600000, "attacker_height": 163, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.47, "defenders": [ "Moi Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.0694, "xg_multiplier": 0.9645, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moi Gómez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Soriano (CDM) is evenly matched against Moi Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Moi Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.441, "xg_contribution": 0.0447, "xg_multiplier": 1.0607, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moi Gómez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.559 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lorenzo Amatucci (CDM) is slightly favored against Moi Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.045 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rubén García", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Adrià Altimira" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.484, "xg_contribution": 0.1181, "xg_multiplier": 1.0059, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrià Altimira", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.516 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rubén García (LW) is evenly matched against Adrià Altimira in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jonathan Dubasin", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Miguel Loureiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.487, "xg_contribution": 0.182, "xg_multiplier": 1.0107, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Miguel Loureiro", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.513 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan Dubasin (RW) is evenly matched against Miguel Loureiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.182 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ante Budimir", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Giacomo Quagliata", "José María Giménez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.462, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.216, "xg_contribution": 0.4125, "xg_multiplier": 1.0236, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.784 }, { "player": "José María Giménez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.784 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ante Budimir (ST) is evenly matched against Giacomo Quagliata and José María Giménez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.413 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iker Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Mario Soriano" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.47, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.46, "xg_contribution": 0.0496, "xg_multiplier": 1.059, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Soriano", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.54 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iker Muñoz (CDM) is evenly matched against Mario Soriano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Moi Gómez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Mario Soriano" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.47, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "xg_contribution": 0.0412, "xg_multiplier": 1.0355, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Soriano", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.526 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moi Gómez (CM) is evenly matched against Mario Soriano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jon Moncayola", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Mario Soriano" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.47, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.518, "xg_contribution": 0.0417, "xg_multiplier": 1.1004, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Soriano", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.482 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Moncayola (CM) is slightly favored against Mario Soriano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.473, "away_midfield_power": 0.455, "home_creative_power": 0.54, "away_creative_power": 0.387, "home_defensive_power": 0.605, "away_defensive_power": 0.387, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.51, "home_midfield_count": 2, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Mario Soriano", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Iker Muñoz", "Moi Gómez", "Jon Moncayola" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Lorenzo Amatucci vs Jon Moncayola", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.014, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.983 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.642, "away_lambda": 1.342, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Yeremay Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bil Nsongo": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Luismi Cruz": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "David Mella": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mario Soriano": { "opponents": [ "Moi Gómez", "Iker Muñoz", "Jon Moncayola" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lorenzo Amatucci": { "opponents": [ "Moi Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adrià Altimira": { "opponents": [ "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Miguel Loureiro": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan Dubasin" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Giacomo Quagliata": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "José María Giménez": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leo Román": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan Dubasin", "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Enzo Boyomo": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Bil Nsongo", "Luismi Cruz", "David Mella" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alejandro Catena": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Bil Nsongo", "Luismi Cruz", "David Mella" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Moi Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Mario Soriano", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rubén García": { "opponents": [ "Adrià Altimira" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jonathan Dubasin": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Loureiro" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ante Budimir": { "opponents": [ "Giacomo Quagliata", "José María Giménez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iker Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jon Moncayola": { "opponents": [ "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aitor Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Abel Bretones": { "opponents": [ "David Mella" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Valentin Rosier": { "opponents": [ "Luismi Cruz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Lorenzo Amatucci vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.65, Away: 0.85. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9821, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.133, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9991, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0022, "home_midfield_factor": 1.014, "away_midfield_factor": 0.983, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4812, "away_avg_quality": 0.4587, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0225, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.3265, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.3401, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.73, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.078, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6477, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8233 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.014, "result": 0.8348 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.8265 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.1089 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0295, "result": 1.1416 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.1538 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9991, "result": 1.1527 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0, "result": 1.1527 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1527, "result": 1.1527, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.078, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.1527, "result": 1.1527 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1527 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1392, "result": 1.2922 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.2922 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2922, "result": 1.292, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 1.292, "result": 1.3012, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.301 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.301 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.301, "result": 1.301, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.213, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.642 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8451, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9713 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.983, "result": 0.9548 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 0.9835 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9835 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9125, "result": 0.8974 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9821, "result": 0.8813 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0022, "result": 0.8833 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.133, "result": 1.0163 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0163, "result": 1.0163, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.078, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.0163, "result": 1.0163 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0163 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1505, "result": 1.1665 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.1665 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1665, "result": 1.167, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.167, "result": 1.1587, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.159 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.159 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.159, "result": 1.159, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.213, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.342 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1392, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1505, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.301, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.159, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2922, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1665, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.213, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.642, "final_away_lambda": 1.342 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0295, "attack_index": 0.937, "defense_concede_index": 1.148, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.41, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.73, "team_ppg": 1.2, "opponent_ppg": 1.2 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9125, "attack_index": 0.847, "defense_concede_index": 0.937, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.28, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.41, "team_ppg": 1.2, "opponent_ppg": 1.2 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Deportivo vs Osasuna. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3 (duel lambdas: Home 1.292, Away 1.167). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.642, Away 1.342 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.642, "away_lambda": 1.342, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.292, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.167 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.213, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-02T14:31:45Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }