{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Alavés", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261106", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0898, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0898, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0772, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Sevilla", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2438, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1128 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0898 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0804 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0772 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.069 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0515, "0-1": 0.069, "0-2": 0.0482, "0-3": 0.0221, "0-4": 0.0076, "0-5": 0.0021, "1-0": 0.0804, "1-1": 0.1128, "1-2": 0.0772, "1-3": 0.0355, "1-4": 0.0122, "1-5": 0.0034, "1-6": 0.0008, "2-0": 0.0651, "2-1": 0.0898, "2-2": 0.0619, "2-3": 0.0285, "2-4": 0.0098, "2-5": 0.0027, "2-6": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0348, "3-1": 0.048, "3-2": 0.0331, "3-3": 0.0152, "3-4": 0.0052, "3-5": 0.0014, "4-0": 0.014, "4-1": 0.0193, "4-2": 0.0133, "4-3": 0.0061, "4-4": 0.0021, "4-5": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0045, "5-1": 0.0062, "5-2": 0.0043, "5-3": 0.002, "5-4": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0012, "6-1": 0.0017, "6-2": 0.0011, "6-3": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4276, "draw": 0.2438, "away_win": 0.3286 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.573, "under_2_5_goals": 0.427, "btts_yes": 0.5985, "btts_no": 0.4015, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2518, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2011 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.82, "MCR": 6.83, "ATR": 6.87, "GK": 6.84 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.75, "MCR": 6.87, "ATR": 6.77, "GK": 7.07 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Sevilla vs Alavés. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Sevilla 2W-4D-4L vs Alavés over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Youssouf Fofana, Miguel Sierra, Lucas Boyé", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Lucien Agoumé vs Antonio Blanco will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.58, Away: 0.65. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.66, "home_lambda": 1.604, "away_lambda": 1.379, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 0.9857, "away_multiplier": 1.0143 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1128, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4276, "draw": 0.2438, "away_win": 0.3286 }, "favorite": "Sevilla", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4276, "fair_spread": 0.225, "fair_total": 2.983, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.604, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.379, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.573, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5985, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2518, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2011, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Youssouf Fofana (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.2785, "probability": 0.2431, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Lucas Boyé (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.4367, "probability": 0.3538, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Gabriel Suazo (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.2311, "probability": 0.2063, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ángel Pérez (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.2361, "probability": 0.2103, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.983, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 762, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.4, "possession_home_pct": 50.8, "possession_away_pct": 49.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Sevilla", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4276, "script": "Sevilla is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.23 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Alavés must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Sevilla lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Alavés chance creation leans on Lucas Boyé against Kike Salas, Marcão in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Sevilla: starters carry the main goal usage through Youssouf Fofana, Miguel Sierra; bench watchlist: Lucas Stassin, Rubén Vargas, Manu Bueno.", "Alavés: starters carry the main goal usage through Lucas Boyé; bench watchlist: Miguel Rodríguez, Ander Guevara, Carles Aleñá.", "Assist usage should flow through Gabriel Suazo, Youssouf Fofana, Ángel Pérez; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Sevilla tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Alavés is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Sevilla.", "Alavés wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Sevilla": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "player_id": 138149, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0624, "rating": 6.8372, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 12, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 32, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2967, "shots_faced": 13.1, "expected_saves": 3.21, "high_pressure_saves": 1.1, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé, Ángel Pérez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421093.0, "match_date": "2026-11-01 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Sevilla", "home_score_current": 3.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16421085.0, "match_date": "2026-10-26", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0273 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421075.0, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.1843 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421063.0, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.0484 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -1.3841 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416343.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.9487 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416330.0, "match_date": "2026-09-11", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416323.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.3787 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.758 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 19, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 16, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.2996 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1276, "combined_rank_score": 554.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 951.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8372, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Odysseas Vlachodimos", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Giorgi Papava", "ranking": 1271 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Gavi", "ranking": 1272 }, { "player_name": "Martin Boakye", "ranking": 1273 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Caseres", "ranking": 1274 }, { "player_name": "Henrikh Mkhitaryan", "ranking": 1275 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego Céspedes", "ranking": 1277 }, { "player_name": "Gi-pyo Kwon", "ranking": 1278 }, { "player_name": "Jeon Hyeon-byung", "ranking": 1279 }, { "player_name": "Nikita Demchenko", "ranking": 1280 }, { "player_name": "Alessio Romagnoli", "ranking": 1281 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 43, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.998, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sevilla", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 43 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Sevilla, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8053, "goals_prevented": -0.0626, "rating": 6.8372, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.097, "accurate_pass": 12.3744, "total_long_balls": 16.8901, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2744, "touches": 31.8122, "clearances": 1.5731, "ball_recovery": 7.8189, "high_claims": 0.6791, "punches": 1.4748, "aerial_won": 0.5226, "sweeper_actions": 0.312, "sweeper_accurate": 0.312, "saves_inside_box": 1.3946, "possession_lost": 10.7793, "duels_won": 0.5816, "duels_lost": 0.128, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0509, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7842, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1948 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": 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"weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 8.1948, "accurateLongBalls": 6.2744, "possessionLostCtrl": 10.7793, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.1119, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.1519, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.3675 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8052875995635986, "model_output": 2.8053, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7997, "goals_prevented": -0.0624, "rating": 6.8372, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0508, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8069, "goals_prevented": -0.0624, "rating": 6.8372, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0135, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.7997, "after": 2.8069 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8069, "goals_prevented": -0.0624, "rating": 6.8372, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8069, "goals_prevented": -0.0624, "rating": 6.8372, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2967, "shots_faced": 12.3, "expected_saves": 3.01, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé, Ángel Pérez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé, Ángel Pérez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.2967 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8069, "goals_prevented": -0.0624, "rating": 6.8372, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2967, "shots_faced": 12.3, "expected_saves": 3.01, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé, Ángel Pérez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 0.8900, xG scale 1.8022, xA scale 1.6080, team xA 1.28 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8069, "goals_prevented": -0.0624, "rating": 6.8372, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2967, "shots_faced": 13.1, "expected_saves": 3.21, "high_pressure_saves": 1.1, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé, Ángel Pérez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.604, "squad_xg_sum": 0.89, "squad_xa_sum": 0.798, "team_expected_assists": 1.2832, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8022, "xa_scale": 1.608, "opponent_lambda": 1.379, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 12.3, "after": 13.1 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.01, "after": 3.21 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.04, "after": 1.1 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8069, "goals_prevented": -0.0624, "rating": 6.8372, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "sweeper_actions": 0.3114, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3114, "saves_inside_box": 1.3918, "possession_lost": 10.7577, "duels_won": 0.5804, "duels_lost": 0.1277, "total_contest": 0.0081, "won_contest": 0.0081, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0501, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1784, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2967, "shots_faced": 13.1, "expected_saves": 3.21, "high_pressure_saves": 1.1, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé, Ángel Pérez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.6415, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Miguel Sierra", "weight": 0.287, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.287, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2755 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.2755, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2755, "runner_up": "Peque Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1887 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8069, "goals_prevented": -0.0624, "rating": 6.8372, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.0508, "accurate_pass": 12.3497, "total_long_balls": 16.8563, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2619, "touches": 31.7486, "clearances": 1.57, "ball_recovery": 7.8033, "high_claims": 0.6777, "punches": 1.4719, 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1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.69 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2379 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2228 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1573 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1373 } ], "others": 0.0383, "total": 2.8533, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.407975 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.1093 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.092562 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.060532 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.05001 } ], "others_margin": 0.013521 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9505985975265503, "model_output": 0.9506, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0535 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0496 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0194 } ], "others": 0.0904, "total": 0.9506, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.234904 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053459 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.049565 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.021587 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.019415 } ], "others_margin": 0.09042 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.879242897033691, "model_output": 6.8792, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { 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}, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.604, "squad_xg_sum": 0.89, "squad_xa_sum": 0.798, "team_expected_assists": 1.2832, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8022, "xa_scale": 1.608, "opponent_lambda": 1.379, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0587, "after": 0.1058 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0412, "after": 0.0662 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6253536343574524, "model_output": 0.6254, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4552 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1176 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1017 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0742 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0304 } ], "others": -0.1686, "total": 0.6254, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.403991 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.137654 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120071 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.086238 }, { 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"passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.037915 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015578 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.014718 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.011427 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011173 } ], "others_margin": -0.032505 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.494)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0547, "tackles": 2.2205, "tackles_won": 1.4734, "clearances": 2.0979, "aerial_won": 0.6251, "total_shots": 0.3863, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 88.31, "total_pass": 39.2143, "accurate_pass": 32.729, "duels_won": 4.7346, "total_long_balls": 3.3416, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4961, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8235, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2615, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9054, "crosses_total": 2.1035, "crosses_accurate": 0.7866, "touches": 58.9301, "possession_lost": 10.3131, "dispossessed": 0.132, "duels_lost": 3.7772, "aerial_lost": 0.8137, "total_contest": 0.7304, "won_contest": 0.5986, "ball_recovery": 4.3305, "challenges_lost": 1.2333, "fouls": 1.576, "fouls_drawn": 1.0198, "blocks": 0.4388, "goals": 0.0, 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2.1256 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.576, "after": 1.5962 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0536, "tackles": 2.2205, "tackles_won": 1.471, "clearances": 2.0979, "aerial_won": 0.6251, "total_shots": 0.3861, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 88.31, "total_pass": 39.2143, "accurate_pass": 32.729, "duels_won": 4.7346, "total_long_balls": 3.3416, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4961, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8235, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2615, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9054, "crosses_total": 2.1256, "crosses_accurate": 0.7866, "touches": 58.9301, "possession_lost": 10.3131, "dispossessed": 0.132, "duels_lost": 3.7772, "aerial_lost": 0.8137, "total_contest": 0.7304, "won_contest": 0.5986, "ball_recovery": 4.3305, "challenges_lost": 1.2333, "fouls": 1.5962, "fouls_drawn": 1.0192, "blocks": 0.4388, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0016, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "expected_goals": 0.008, "expected_assists": 0.1437, "shots_on_target": 0.0067, "big_chances_created": 0.0255, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 13.1483, "total_progression": 75.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.2859, "key_pass": 1.3932, "shots_off_target": 0.3794 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0536, "tackles": 2.2205, "tackles_won": 1.471, "clearances": 2.0979, "aerial_won": 0.6251, "total_shots": 0.3861, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 88.31, "total_pass": 39.2143, "accurate_pass": 32.729, "duels_won": 4.7346, "total_long_balls": 3.3416, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4961, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8235, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2615, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9054, "crosses_total": 2.1256, "crosses_accurate": 0.7866, "touches": 58.9301, "possession_lost": 10.3131, "dispossessed": 0.132, "duels_lost": 3.7772, "aerial_lost": 0.8137, "total_contest": 0.7304, "won_contest": 0.5986, "ball_recovery": 4.3305, "challenges_lost": 1.2333, "fouls": 1.5962, "fouls_drawn": 1.0192, "blocks": 0.4388, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0016, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "expected_goals": 0.008, "expected_assists": 0.1437, "shots_on_target": 0.0067, "big_chances_created": 0.0255, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 13.1483, "total_progression": 75.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.2859, "key_pass": 1.3932, "shots_off_target": 0.3794, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0536, "tackles": 2.2205, "tackles_won": 1.471, "clearances": 2.0979, "aerial_won": 0.6251, "total_shots": 0.3861, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 88.31, "total_pass": 39.2143, "accurate_pass": 32.729, "duels_won": 4.7346, "total_long_balls": 3.3416, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4961, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8235, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2615, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9054, "crosses_total": 2.1256, "crosses_accurate": 0.7866, "touches": 58.9301, "possession_lost": 10.3131, "dispossessed": 0.132, "duels_lost": 3.7772, "aerial_lost": 0.8137, "total_contest": 0.7304, "won_contest": 0.5986, "ball_recovery": 4.3305, "challenges_lost": 1.2333, "fouls": 1.5962, "fouls_drawn": 1.0192, "blocks": 0.4388, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.008, "expected_assists": 0.1437, "shots_on_target": 0.0067, "big_chances_created": 0.0255, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 13.1483, "total_progression": 75.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.2859, "key_pass": 1.3932, "shots_off_target": 0.3794, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 0.8900, xG scale 1.8022, xA scale 1.6080, team xA 1.28 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0536, "tackles": 2.2205, "tackles_won": 1.471, "clearances": 2.0979, "aerial_won": 0.6251, "total_shots": 0.3861, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 88.31, "total_pass": 39.2143, "accurate_pass": 32.729, "duels_won": 4.7346, "total_long_balls": 3.3416, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4961, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8235, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2615, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9054, "crosses_total": 2.1256, "crosses_accurate": 0.7866, "touches": 58.9301, "possession_lost": 10.3131, "dispossessed": 0.132, "duels_lost": 3.7772, "aerial_lost": 0.8137, "total_contest": 0.7304, "won_contest": 0.5986, "ball_recovery": 4.3305, "challenges_lost": 1.2333, "fouls": 1.5962, 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"minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.3763, "aerialWon": 1.1388, "totalClearance_p90": 3.4474, "totalTackle": 3.5316, "totalTackle_p90": 3.6333 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9849329590797424, "model_output": 0.9849, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": 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{ "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.041717 } ], "others_margin": -0.156206 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8313308954238892, "model_output": 0.8313, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1772 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0513 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0221 } ], "others": 0.0461, "total": 0.8313, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.177223 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05129 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.03106 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022313 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.022087 } ], "others_margin": 0.046109 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.818737506866455, "model_output": 6.8187, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": 0.0244, "total": 6.8187, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.02082 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016146 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013705 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012319 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010595 } ], "others_margin": 0.024491 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 47, "role_matches": 46, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 2.7635, "tackles_won": 1.546, "clearances": 3.273, "aerial_won": 1.0054, "total_shots": 0.8305, "rating": 6.8187, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goals": 0.0689, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "assists": 0.0049, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.0344, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5403 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 47, "history_shrink": 0.0962, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 2.7635, "tackles_won": 1.546, "clearances": 3.273, "aerial_won": 1.0054, "total_shots": 0.8305, "rating": 6.8187, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goals": 0.0689, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "assists": 0.0049, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.0344, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5403 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 2.7635, "tackles_won": 1.546, "clearances": 3.273, "aerial_won": 1.0054, "total_shots": 0.8305, "rating": 6.8187, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goals": 0.0689, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "assists": 0.0049, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.0344, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5403, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 2.7635, "tackles_won": 1.546, "clearances": 3.273, "aerial_won": 1.0054, "total_shots": 0.8305, "rating": 6.8187, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.0344, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5403, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 0.8900, xG scale 1.8022, xA scale 1.6080, team xA 1.28 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 2.7635, "tackles_won": 1.546, "clearances": 3.273, "aerial_won": 1.0054, "total_shots": 0.8305, "rating": 6.8187, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "expected_assists": 0.1471, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.062, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5403, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0979, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.604, "squad_xg_sum": 0.89, "squad_xa_sum": 0.798, "team_expected_assists": 1.2832, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8022, "xa_scale": 1.608, "opponent_lambda": 1.379, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0583, "after": 0.1051 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0915, "after": 0.1471 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 2.7635, "tackles_won": 1.546, "clearances": 3.273, "aerial_won": 1.0054, "total_shots": 0.8305, "rating": 6.8187, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "expected_assists": 0.1471, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.062, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5403, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0979, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3199, "fifa_rank": 1977.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 2.7635, "tackles_won": 1.546, "clearances": 3.273, "aerial_won": 1.0054, "total_shots": 0.8305, "rating": 6.8187, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "expected_assists": 0.1471, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.062, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5403, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0998, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0979, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0998, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "scorer_weight": 0.1154, "squad_weight_total": 1.6415, "weight_share": 0.0703, "finishing_factor": 1.0979, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Miguel Sierra", "weight": 0.287, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.287, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2755 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.2755, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2755, "runner_up": "Peque Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1887 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 2.7635, "tackles_won": 1.546, "clearances": 3.273, "aerial_won": 1.0054, "total_shots": 0.8305, "rating": 6.8187, "minutes": 87.6, "total_pass": 28.1923, "accurate_pass": 19.1139, "duels_won": 6.9367, "total_long_balls": 6.4873, "accurate_long_balls": 2.941, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6973, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4166, "crosses_total": 3.4681, "crosses_accurate": 0.9325, "touches": 58.724, "possession_lost": 17.0787, "dispossessed": 0.6414, "duels_lost": 4.4143, "aerial_lost": 1.142, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7602, "ball_recovery": 3.1227, "challenges_lost": 1.2321, "fouls": 1.1399, "fouls_drawn": 1.5397, "blocks": 0.2374, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1051, "expected_assists": 0.1471, "shots_on_target": 0.2902, "big_chances_created": 0.0236, "xgot": 0.062, "ball_carries": 9.1275, "total_progression": 27.719, "progressive_carries": 0.6308, "key_pass": 0.6431, "shots_off_target": 0.5403, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632, "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0998, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1368, "finishing_factor": 1.0979, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1368, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "provider_weight": 0.1177, "squad_weight_total": 1.2113, "weight_share": 0.0972, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.2247, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2247, "runner_up": "Gabriel Suazo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1849 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.1849, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1849, "runner_up": "Giorgi Kochorashvili", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1394, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ] } ] } } ] }, "Marcão": { "player_id": 840951, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 185, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7915, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 6.2421, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, 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"importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0177, "total": 6.7915, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019366 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017713 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012146 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.010428 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010378 } ], "others_margin": 0.01764 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 13, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9944, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8972, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "clearances": 5.785, "aerial_won": 2.2388, "total_shots": 0.5508, "rating": 6.7915, "minutes": 80.82, "total_pass": 41.7328, "accurate_pass": 36.2152, "duels_won": 5.0405, "total_long_balls": 5.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2497, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.9837, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0123, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2314, "crosses_total": 0.0353, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3043, "possession_lost": 6.2421, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_lost": 2.0965, "total_contest": 0.0415, "won_contest": 0.0415, "ball_recovery": 2.667, "challenges_lost": 0.2616, "fouls": 1.9679, "fouls_drawn": 1.6708, "blocks": 0.4197, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0631, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 15.5925, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4569, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3113 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9944, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 13, "history_shrink": 0.2778, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8972, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "clearances": 5.785, "aerial_won": 2.2388, "total_shots": 0.5508, "rating": 6.7915, "minutes": 80.82, "total_pass": 41.7328, "accurate_pass": 36.2152, "duels_won": 5.0405, "total_long_balls": 5.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2497, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.9837, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0123, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2314, "crosses_total": 0.0353, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3043, "possession_lost": 6.2421, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_lost": 2.0965, "total_contest": 0.0415, "won_contest": 0.0415, "ball_recovery": 2.667, "challenges_lost": 0.2616, "fouls": 1.9679, "fouls_drawn": 1.6708, "blocks": 0.4197, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0631, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 15.5925, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4569, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3113 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8972, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "clearances": 5.785, "aerial_won": 2.2388, "total_shots": 0.5508, "rating": 6.7915, "minutes": 80.82, "total_pass": 41.7328, "accurate_pass": 36.2152, "duels_won": 5.0405, "total_long_balls": 5.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2497, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.9837, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0123, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2314, "crosses_total": 0.0353, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3043, "possession_lost": 6.2421, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_lost": 2.0965, "total_contest": 0.0415, "won_contest": 0.0415, "ball_recovery": 2.667, "challenges_lost": 0.2616, "fouls": 1.9679, "fouls_drawn": 1.6708, "blocks": 0.4197, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0631, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 15.5925, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4569, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3113, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8972, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "clearances": 5.785, "aerial_won": 2.2388, "total_shots": 0.5508, "rating": 6.7915, "minutes": 80.82, "total_pass": 41.7328, "accurate_pass": 36.2152, "duels_won": 5.0405, "total_long_balls": 5.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2497, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.9837, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0123, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2314, "crosses_total": 0.0353, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3043, "possession_lost": 6.2421, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_lost": 2.0965, "total_contest": 0.0415, "won_contest": 0.0415, "ball_recovery": 2.667, "challenges_lost": 0.2616, "fouls": 1.9679, "fouls_drawn": 1.6708, "blocks": 0.4197, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0631, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 15.5925, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4569, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3113, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 0.8900, xG scale 1.8022, xA scale 1.6080, team xA 1.28 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8972, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "clearances": 5.785, "aerial_won": 2.2388, "total_shots": 0.5508, "rating": 6.7915, "minutes": 80.82, "total_pass": 41.7328, "accurate_pass": 36.2152, "duels_won": 5.0405, "total_long_balls": 5.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2497, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.9837, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0123, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2314, "crosses_total": 0.0353, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3043, "possession_lost": 6.2421, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_lost": 2.0965, "total_contest": 0.0415, "won_contest": 0.0415, "ball_recovery": 2.667, "challenges_lost": 0.2616, "fouls": 1.9679, "fouls_drawn": 1.6708, "blocks": 0.4197, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1137, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0105, "ball_carries": 15.5925, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4569, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3113, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9191 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.604, "squad_xg_sum": 0.89, "squad_xa_sum": 0.798, "team_expected_assists": 1.2832, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8022, "xa_scale": 1.608, "opponent_lambda": 1.379, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0631, "after": 0.1137 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8972, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "clearances": 5.785, "aerial_won": 2.2388, "total_shots": 0.5508, "rating": 6.7915, "minutes": 80.82, "total_pass": 41.7328, "accurate_pass": 36.2152, "duels_won": 5.0405, "total_long_balls": 5.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2497, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.9837, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0123, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2314, "crosses_total": 0.0353, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3043, "possession_lost": 6.2421, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_lost": 2.0965, "total_contest": 0.0415, "won_contest": 0.0415, "ball_recovery": 2.667, "challenges_lost": 0.2616, "fouls": 1.9679, "fouls_drawn": 1.6708, "blocks": 0.4197, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1137, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0105, "ball_carries": 15.5925, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4569, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3113, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9191, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4137, "fifa_rank": 3503.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8972, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "clearances": 5.785, "aerial_won": 2.2388, "total_shots": 0.5508, "rating": 6.7915, "minutes": 80.82, "total_pass": 41.7328, "accurate_pass": 36.2152, "duels_won": 5.0405, "total_long_balls": 5.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2497, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.9837, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0123, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2314, "crosses_total": 0.0353, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3043, "possession_lost": 6.2421, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_lost": 2.0965, "total_contest": 0.0415, "won_contest": 0.0415, "ball_recovery": 2.667, "challenges_lost": 0.2616, "fouls": 1.9679, "fouls_drawn": 1.6708, "blocks": 0.4197, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1137, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0105, "ball_carries": 15.5925, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4569, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3113, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Lucas Boyé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1075, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9191, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1075, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.091, "squad_weight_total": 1.6415, "weight_share": 0.0554, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Miguel Sierra", "weight": 0.287, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.287, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2755 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.2755, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2755, "runner_up": "Peque Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1887 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8972, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "clearances": 5.785, "aerial_won": 2.2388, "total_shots": 0.5508, "rating": 6.7915, "minutes": 80.82, "total_pass": 41.7328, "accurate_pass": 36.2152, "duels_won": 5.0405, "total_long_balls": 5.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2497, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.9837, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0123, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2314, "crosses_total": 0.0353, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3043, "possession_lost": 6.2421, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0638, "aerial_lost": 2.0965, "total_contest": 0.0415, "won_contest": 0.0415, "ball_recovery": 2.667, "challenges_lost": 0.2616, "fouls": 1.9679, "fouls_drawn": 1.6708, "blocks": 0.4197, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1137, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0105, "ball_carries": 15.5925, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4569, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3113, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, 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}, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.8265, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5523, "after": 1.7071 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0032, "after": 1.1032 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5491, "after": 0.6038 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2555, "after": 0.281 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.229, "after": 0.2518 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1405, "after": 0.1545 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1385, "after": 0.1523 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1724, "expected_assists": 0.1118, "assist_rate": 0.1651, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1545, "goal_rate": 0.1523, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6038, "total_shots": 1.7071, "rating": 6.8622, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 31.6961, "accurate_pass": 25.788, "duels_won": 4.2726, "total_long_balls": 1.9703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5442, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5728, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2151, "crosses_total": 0.207, "crosses_accurate": 0.207, "touches": 44.9121, "possession_lost": 9.7504, "dispossessed": 0.1495, "duels_lost": 3.3621, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.609, "interceptions": 1.1313, "tackles_won": 0.8636, "tackles": 1.9197, "clearances": 0.303, "total_contest": 3.4944, "won_contest": 1.2425, "challenges_lost": 0.3515, "fouls": 0.207, "fouls_drawn": 0.284, "blocks": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.1759, "big_chances_missed": 0.281, "xgot": 0.2518, "ball_carries": 8.9527, "total_progression": 68.0894, "progressive_carries": 2.0871, "shots_off_target": 1.1032, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0997, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonio Blanco", "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 0.8900, xG scale 1.8022, xA scale 1.6080, team xA 1.28 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1724, "expected_assists": 0.1798, "assist_rate": 0.1651, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2785, "goal_rate": 0.1523, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6038, "total_shots": 1.7071, "rating": 6.8622, "minutes": 86.26, "total_pass": 31.6961, "accurate_pass": 25.788, "duels_won": 4.2726, "total_long_balls": 1.9703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5442, 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"contribution": 0.1831 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0481 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0426 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0337 } ], "others": 0.0631, "total": 1.3243, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.183144 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.048145 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.042557 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.036218 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.033706 } ], "others_margin": 0.062969 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.735116004943848, "model_output": 6.7351, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", 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the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.2087, "total_contest": 1.8992, "won_contest": 1.0167, "challenges_lost": 0.5935, "fouls": 1.192, "fouls_drawn": 2.7801, "blocks": 0.1006, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.106, "ball_carries": 9.749, "total_progression": 42.133, "progressive_carries": 1.7492, "shots_off_target": 0.8972 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3300000, "quality_factor": 0.4412, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8771, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "assists": 0.0636, "assist_rate": 0.0636, "expected_goals": 0.1167, "goals": 0.1135, "goal_rate": 0.1135, "shots_on_target": 0.4235, "total_shots": 1.3207, "rating": 6.7351, "minutes": 63.14, "total_pass": 19.0984, "accurate_pass": 16.2796, "duels_won": 5.2233, "total_long_balls": 1.0, "accurate_long_balls": 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"contribution": -0.0249 } ], "others": 0.0407, "total": 0.8509, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.263817 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136993 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055446 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.032368 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.024931 } ], "others_margin": 0.040779 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.717222690582275, "model_output": 6.7172, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0457 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5941, "expected_assists": 0.04, "assists": 0.0575, "assist_rate": 0.0575, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goals": 0.0774, "goal_rate": 0.0774, "shots_on_target": 0.2684, "total_shots": 0.8488, "rating": 6.7172, "minutes": 71.63, "total_pass": 21.7131, "accurate_pass": 18.2009, "duels_won": 3.5358, "total_long_balls": 0.9351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2856, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3199, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.5199, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.681, "crosses_total": 0.8116, "crosses_accurate": 0.0499, "touches": 32.5281, "possession_lost": 7.1294, "dispossessed": 0.7288, "duels_lost": 4.5599, "aerial_won": 1.1781, "aerial_lost": 1.2617, "interceptions": 0.4458, "tackles_won": 0.9051, "tackles": 1.3942, "clearances": 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"name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.03045 } ], "others_margin": -0.029971 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9311347007751465, "model_output": 6.9311, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.042 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": 0.0129, "total": 6.9311, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.042024 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023388 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.016741 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014336 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.006967 } ], "others_margin": 0.012881 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9930, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1792, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "assists": 0.085, "assist_rate": 0.085, "expected_goals": 0.0482, "goals": 0.0714, "goal_rate": 0.0714, "shots_on_target": 0.2113, "total_shots": 0.7241, "rating": 6.9311, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8297, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.7721, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2789, "tackles_won": 2.4212, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2789, "fouls_drawn": 0.2789, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5128 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0079)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1792, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "assists": 0.0843, "assist_rate": 0.0843, "expected_goals": 0.0482, "goals": 0.0708, "goal_rate": 0.0708, "shots_on_target": 0.2096, "total_shots": 0.7524, "rating": 6.9311, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.7721, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5128 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0079, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8612, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.8297, "after": 1.8662 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7241, "after": 0.7524 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.2789, "after": 0.2937 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2789, "after": 0.2937 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1792, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "assists": 0.0843, "assist_rate": 0.0843, "expected_goals": 0.0482, "goals": 0.0708, "goal_rate": 0.0708, "shots_on_target": 0.2096, "total_shots": 0.7524, "rating": 6.9311, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.7721, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5128 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1792, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "assists": 0.0843, "assist_rate": 0.0843, "expected_goals": 0.0474, "goals": 0.0697, "goal_rate": 0.0697, "shots_on_target": 0.2063, "total_shots": 0.7406, "rating": 6.9311, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5047, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9843, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.409, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.409, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9843, "skill_edge": 0.0013, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.4629, "defender_skill": 0.46, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "market_value": 4099999, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.46 } ], "xg_override": 0.0474 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7721, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7524, "after": 0.7406 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5128, "after": 0.5047 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1792, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "assist_rate": 0.0843, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.0697, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2063, "total_shots": 0.7406, "rating": 6.9311, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5047, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9843, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.409, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 0.8900, xG scale 1.8022, xA scale 1.6080, team xA 1.28 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1792, "expected_assists": 0.1462, "assist_rate": 0.0843, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0854, "goal_rate": 0.0697, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2063, "total_shots": 0.7406, "rating": 6.9311, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5047, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9843, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.409, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.229, "creation_factor": 0.9532 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.604, "squad_xg_sum": 0.89, "squad_xa_sum": 0.798, "team_expected_assists": 1.2832, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8022, "xa_scale": 1.608, "opponent_lambda": 1.379, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0474, "after": 0.0854 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0909, "after": 0.1462 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1792, "expected_assists": 0.1462, "assist_rate": 0.0843, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0854, "goal_rate": 0.0697, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2063, "total_shots": 0.7406, "rating": 6.9311, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5047, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9843, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.409, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.229, "creation_factor": 0.9532, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3657, "fifa_rank": 2992.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1792, "expected_assists": 0.1462, "assist_rate": 0.0843, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0854, "goal_rate": 0.0697, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2063, "total_shots": 0.7406, "rating": 6.9311, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5047, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9843, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.409, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0819, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.229, "creation_factor": 0.9532, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0819, "goal_rate": 0.0697, "scorer_weight": 0.105, "squad_weight_total": 1.6415, "weight_share": 0.0639, "finishing_factor": 1.229, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Miguel Sierra", "weight": 0.287, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.287, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2755 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.2755, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2755, "runner_up": "Peque Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1887 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1792, "expected_assists": 0.1462, "assist_rate": 0.0843, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0854, "goal_rate": 0.0697, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2063, "total_shots": 0.7406, "rating": 6.9311, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, 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"importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1484 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0431 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0427 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0398 } ], "others": 0.0414, "total": 0.9641, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.194315 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.049225 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.04767 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.047257 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.044081 } ], "others_margin": 0.043944 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.871721267700195, "model_output": 6.8717, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0561 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": -0.0264, "total": 6.8717, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056133 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021882 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.019659 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.014119 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013026 } ], "others_margin": -0.026432 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 12, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.494)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1293, "goals": 0.194, "goal_rate": 0.194, "shots_on_target": 0.4924, "total_shots": 1.8879, "expected_assists": 0.0982, "key_pass": 0.9631, "rating": 6.8717, "minutes": 73.61, "total_pass": 20.0368, "accurate_pass": 15.6457, "duels_won": 7.7421, "total_long_balls": 1.1685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4762, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6729, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4807, "crosses_total": 2.0038, "crosses_accurate": 0.4314, "touches": 39.3945, "possession_lost": 12.0, "dispossessed": 1.6936, "duels_lost": 8.087, "aerial_lost": 1.0225, "total_contest": 4.6313, "won_contest": 2.5045, "ball_recovery": 3.5417, "challenges_lost": 2.2444, "fouls": 0.9997, "fouls_drawn": 1.7219, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.066, "tackles_won": 1.2791, "tackles": 1.9265, "clearances": 0.3795, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1027, "offsides": 0.1667, "ball_carries": 13.6126, "total_progression": 46.1535, "progressive_carries": 2.4535, "shots_off_target": 1.3955 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7600000, "quality_factor": 0.4939, "boost_factor": 0.999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 12, "history_shrink": 0.2941, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1293, "goals": 0.194, "goal_rate": 0.194, "shots_on_target": 0.4924, "total_shots": 1.8879, "expected_assists": 0.0982, "key_pass": 0.9631, "rating": 6.8717, "minutes": 73.61, "total_pass": 20.0368, "accurate_pass": 15.6457, "duels_won": 7.7421, "total_long_balls": 1.1685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4762, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6729, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4807, 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 0.8900, xG scale 1.8022, xA scale 1.6080, team xA 1.28 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2296, "goal_rate": 0.1911, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.485, "total_shots": 1.8596, "expected_assists": 0.1579, "key_pass": 0.9631, "rating": 6.8717, "minutes": 73.61, "total_pass": 20.0368, "accurate_pass": 15.6457, "duels_won": 7.7421, "total_long_balls": 1.1685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4762, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6729, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4807, "crosses_total": 2.0038, "crosses_accurate": 0.4314, "touches": 39.3945, "possession_lost": 12.0, "dispossessed": 1.6936, "duels_lost": 8.087, "aerial_lost": 1.0225, "total_contest": 4.6313, "won_contest": 2.5045, "ball_recovery": 3.5417, "challenges_lost": 2.2444, "fouls": 0.9997, "fouls_drawn": 1.7219, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.066, "tackles_won": 1.2791, "tackles": 1.9265, "clearances": 0.3795, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1824, "offsides": 0.1667, "ball_carries": 13.6126, "total_progression": 46.1535, "progressive_carries": 2.4535, "shots_off_target": 1.3746, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.985, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Facundo Garcés, Ville Koski", "opponent_faced": "Facundo Garcés, Ville Koski", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.604, "squad_xg_sum": 0.89, "squad_xa_sum": 0.798, "team_expected_assists": 1.2832, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8022, "xa_scale": 1.608, "opponent_lambda": 1.379, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1274, "after": 0.2296 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0982, "after": 0.1579 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0504, "total": 0.1736, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.228475 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.019762 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.016886 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015128 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010657 } ], "others_margin": -0.050471 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.755177974700928, "model_output": 6.7552, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": 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"name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.392 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1913 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0209 } ], "others": -0.0359, "total": 0.3989, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.391951 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.191283 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.033802 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.021492 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.020917 } ], "others_margin": -0.036014 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6890997886657715, "model_output": 6.6891, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0756 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0253, "total": 6.6891, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075629 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030505 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016361 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010946 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.00959 } ], "others_margin": -0.025275 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 12, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9940, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2384, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "assists": 0.0348, "assist_rate": 0.0348, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.1259, "total_shots": 0.3966, "rating": 6.6891, "minutes": 22.28, "total_pass": 11.4387, "accurate_pass": 9.5834, "duels_won": 1.5871, "total_long_balls": 1.1062, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7642, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0707, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3778, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3679, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2055, "crosses_total": 0.2008, "crosses_accurate": 0.043, "touches": 15.4713, "possession_lost": 2.9005, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3352, "aerial_won": 0.3793, "aerial_lost": 0.1341, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5275, "tackles": 0.6944, "clearances": 0.1801, "total_contest": 0.4776, "won_contest": 0.1857, "challenges_lost": 0.2008, "fouls": 0.7084, "fouls_drawn": 0.3278, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0473, "ball_carries": 4.3638, "total_progression": 25.3146, "progressive_carries": 0.6944, "shots_off_target": 0.2707 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.994, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 12, "history_shrink": 0.2941, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0013)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2384, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "assists": 0.0348, "assist_rate": 0.0348, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3961, "rating": 6.6891, "minutes": 22.28, "total_pass": 11.4387, "accurate_pass": 9.5834, "duels_won": 1.5871, "total_long_balls": 1.1062, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7642, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0707, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3778, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3679, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2055, "crosses_total": 0.2005, "crosses_accurate": 0.043, "touches": 15.4713, "possession_lost": 2.9005, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3352, "aerial_won": 0.3793, "aerial_lost": 0.1341, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.53, "tackles": 0.6944, "clearances": 0.1801, "total_contest": 0.4776, "won_contest": 0.1857, "challenges_lost": 0.2008, "fouls": 0.7075, "fouls_drawn": 0.3274, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0473, "ball_carries": 4.3638, "total_progression": 25.3146, "progressive_carries": 0.6944, "shots_off_target": 0.2707 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0013, "history_matches": 12, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2476, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.3 to 14.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1588, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goals": 0.0251, "goal_rate": 0.0251, "shots_on_target": 0.0837, "total_shots": 0.264, "rating": 6.6891, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 7.619, "accurate_pass": 6.3832, "duels_won": 1.0571, "total_long_balls": 0.7368, "accurate_long_balls": 0.509, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7114, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2498, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9075, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1333, "crosses_total": 0.1335, "crosses_accurate": 0.0286, "touches": 10.3049, "possession_lost": 1.9319, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8893, "aerial_won": 0.2526, "aerial_lost": 0.1341, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.4625, "clearances": 0.12, "total_contest": 0.3181, "won_contest": 0.1237, "challenges_lost": 0.2008, "fouls": 0.4712, "fouls_drawn": 0.2181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0315, "ball_carries": 2.9066, "total_progression": 16.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.1803, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.84, "projection_minutes": 22.28, "minutes_scale": 0.6661, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1588, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goals": 0.0251, "goal_rate": 0.0251, "shots_on_target": 0.0837, "total_shots": 0.264, "rating": 6.6891, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 7.619, "accurate_pass": 6.3832, "duels_won": 1.0571, "total_long_balls": 0.7368, "accurate_long_balls": 0.509, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7114, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2498, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9075, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1333, "crosses_total": 0.1335, "crosses_accurate": 0.0286, "touches": 10.3049, "possession_lost": 1.9319, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8893, "aerial_won": 0.2526, "aerial_lost": 0.1341, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.4625, "clearances": 0.12, "total_contest": 0.3181, "won_contest": 0.1237, "challenges_lost": 0.2008, "fouls": 0.4712, "fouls_drawn": 0.2181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0315, "ball_carries": 2.9066, "total_progression": 16.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.1803, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1588, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0251, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0837, "total_shots": 0.264, "rating": 6.6891, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 7.619, "accurate_pass": 6.3832, "duels_won": 1.0571, "total_long_balls": 0.7368, "accurate_long_balls": 0.509, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7114, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2498, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9075, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1333, "crosses_total": 0.1335, "crosses_accurate": 0.0286, "touches": 10.3049, "possession_lost": 1.9319, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8893, "aerial_won": 0.2526, "aerial_lost": 0.1341, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.4625, "clearances": 0.12, "total_contest": 0.3181, "won_contest": 0.1237, "challenges_lost": 0.2008, "fouls": 0.4712, "fouls_drawn": 0.2181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0315, "ball_carries": 2.9066, "total_progression": 16.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.1803, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 0.8900, xG scale 1.8022, xA scale 1.6080, team xA 1.28 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1588, "expected_assists": 0.019, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "goal_rate": 0.0251, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0837, "total_shots": 0.264, "rating": 6.6891, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 7.619, "accurate_pass": 6.3832, "duels_won": 1.0571, "total_long_balls": 0.7368, "accurate_long_balls": 0.509, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7114, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2498, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9075, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1333, "crosses_total": 0.1335, "crosses_accurate": 0.0286, "touches": 10.3049, "possession_lost": 1.9319, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8893, "aerial_won": 0.2526, "aerial_lost": 0.1341, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.4625, "clearances": 0.12, "total_contest": 0.3181, "won_contest": 0.1237, "challenges_lost": 0.2008, "fouls": 0.4712, "fouls_drawn": 0.2181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0393, "ball_carries": 2.9066, "total_progression": 16.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.1803, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9973, "creation_factor": 1.0909 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.604, "squad_xg_sum": 0.89, "squad_xa_sum": 0.798, "team_expected_assists": 1.2832, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8022, "xa_scale": 1.608, "opponent_lambda": 1.379, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0253, "after": 0.0316 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1588, "expected_assists": 0.019, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "goal_rate": 0.0251, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0837, "total_shots": 0.264, "rating": 6.6891, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 7.619, "accurate_pass": 6.3832, "duels_won": 1.0571, "total_long_balls": 0.7368, "accurate_long_balls": 0.509, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7114, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2498, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9075, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1333, "crosses_total": 0.1335, "crosses_accurate": 0.0286, "touches": 10.3049, "possession_lost": 1.9319, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8893, "aerial_won": 0.2526, "aerial_lost": 0.1341, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.4625, "clearances": 0.12, "total_contest": 0.3181, "won_contest": 0.1237, "challenges_lost": 0.2008, "fouls": 0.4712, "fouls_drawn": 0.2181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0393, "ball_carries": 2.9066, "total_progression": 16.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.1803, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9973, "creation_factor": 1.0909, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6557, "fifa_rank": 9410.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1588, "expected_assists": 0.019, "assist_rate": 0.0232, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "goal_rate": 0.0251, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0837, "total_shots": 0.264, "rating": 6.6891, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 7.619, "accurate_pass": 6.3832, "duels_won": 1.0571, "total_long_balls": 0.7368, "accurate_long_balls": 0.509, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7114, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2498, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9075, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1333, "crosses_total": 0.1335, "crosses_accurate": 0.0286, "touches": 10.3049, "possession_lost": 1.9319, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8893, "aerial_won": 0.2526, "aerial_lost": 0.1341, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.4625, "clearances": 0.12, "total_contest": 0.3181, "won_contest": 0.1237, "challenges_lost": 0.2008, "fouls": 0.4712, "fouls_drawn": 0.2181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0393, "ball_carries": 2.9066, "total_progression": 16.8613, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.1803, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0309, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9973, "creation_factor": 1.0909, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0251, "scorer_weight": 0.0315, "squad_weight_total": 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"season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416323.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 36, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3995, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3440, "combined_rank_score": 1429.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2751.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA 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0.3226, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.451213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.083946 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.05716 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.051282 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.049913 } ], "others_margin": -0.168997 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.662362098693848, "model_output": 6.6624, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0576 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", 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"accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0036 } ], "others": 0.0016, "total": 0.0681, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.351673 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.129654 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.117332 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.072381 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.055027 } ], "others_margin": 0.02425 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6526399254798889, "model_output": 0.6526, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.221 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0576 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0227 } ], "others": 0.0534, "total": 0.6526, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.384828 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.115504 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.045328 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.042035 }, { "name": 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{ "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011454 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.00896 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.008573 } ], "others_margin": -0.006607 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0029, quality 0.567)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0685, "goals": 0.0824, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "shots_on_target": 0.2211, "total_shots": 0.7417, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "key_pass": 0.6545, "rating": 6.757, "minutes": 23.13, "total_pass": 14.2189, "accurate_pass": 11.6651, "duels_won": 1.5743, "total_long_balls": 0.9076, "accurate_long_balls": 0.497, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2641, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1711, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.8719, "touches": 20.7716, "possession_lost": 4.3092, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0663, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7023, "won_contest": 0.2555, "ball_recovery": 2.7065, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.416, 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0.5213, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.16, "projection_minutes": 23.13, "minutes_scale": 1.0013, "appearance_probability": 0.729 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0686, "goals": 0.0824, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "shots_on_target": 0.2211, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.6553, "rating": 6.757, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0989, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 0.5213, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0686, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2211, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.6553, "rating": 6.757, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, 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0.0526 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0309 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0307 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3756, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4646 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0653 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0456 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0413 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0353 } ], "others": -0.0666, "total": 0.7395, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.375643, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.464573 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065252 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.045629 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.041343 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.035264 } ], "others_margin": -0.066769 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06812897324562073, "model_output": 0.0681, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": 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} }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6526399254798889, "model_output": 0.6526, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.221 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0576 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0227 } ], "others": 0.0534, "total": 0.6526, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.384828 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.115504 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.045328 }, { "name": 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022428 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011454 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.00896 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.008573 } ], "others_margin": -0.006607 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0029, quality 0.567)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0685, "goals": 0.0824, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "shots_on_target": 0.2211, "total_shots": 0.7417, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "key_pass": 0.6545, "rating": 6.757, "minutes": 23.13, "total_pass": 14.2189, "accurate_pass": 11.6651, "duels_won": 1.5743, "total_long_balls": 0.9076, "accurate_long_balls": 0.497, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2641, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1711, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.8719, "touches": 20.7716, "possession_lost": 4.3092, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0663, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7023, "won_contest": 0.2555, "ball_recovery": 2.7065, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.416, 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0.0824, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "shots_on_target": 0.2211, "total_shots": 0.7432, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.6553, "rating": 6.757, "minutes": 23.16, "total_pass": 14.2373, "accurate_pass": 11.6802, "duels_won": 1.5763, "total_long_balls": 0.9088, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4976, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1791, "crosses_total": 1.2123, "crosses_accurate": 0.873, "touches": 20.7985, "possession_lost": 4.3148, "dispossessed": 0.3228, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7032, "won_contest": 0.2558, "ball_recovery": 2.71, "challenges_lost": 0.1483, "fouls": 0.1483, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2967, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.9713, "clearances": 0.2056, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0989, "offsides": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 4.8625, "total_progression": 24.2713, "progressive_carries": 1.5729, "shots_off_target": 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.392 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1913 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0209 } ], "others": -0.0359, "total": 0.3989, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.391951 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.191283 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.033802 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.021492 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.020917 } ], "others_margin": -0.036014 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6890997886657715, "model_output": 6.6891, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0756 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0253, "total": 6.6891, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075629 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030505 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016361 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010946 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.00959 } ], "others_margin": -0.025275 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 12, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9940, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2384, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "assists": 0.0348, "assist_rate": 0.0348, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.1259, "total_shots": 0.3966, "rating": 6.6891, "minutes": 22.28, "total_pass": 11.4387, "accurate_pass": 9.5834, "duels_won": 1.5871, "total_long_balls": 1.1062, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7642, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0707, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3778, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3679, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2055, "crosses_total": 0.2008, "crosses_accurate": 0.043, "touches": 15.4713, "possession_lost": 2.9005, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3352, "aerial_won": 0.3793, "aerial_lost": 0.1341, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5275, "tackles": 0.6944, "clearances": 0.1801, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.587)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1043, "goals": 0.1053, "goal_rate": 0.1053, "shots_on_target": 0.3349, "total_shots": 0.8447, "expected_assists": 0.022, "key_pass": 0.3266, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 27.46, "total_pass": 12.2739, "accurate_pass": 8.568, "duels_won": 3.3374, "total_long_balls": 0.7136, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7136, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.529, "crosses_total": 0.1676, "crosses_accurate": 0.1676, "touches": 20.6328, "possession_lost": 7.117, "dispossessed": 0.3101, "duels_lost": 3.3842, "aerial_lost": 1.9351, "total_contest": 1.1451, "won_contest": 0.7803, "ball_recovery": 1.4477, "challenges_lost": 0.3101, "fouls": 0.464, "fouls_drawn": 0.5969, "assists": 0.232, "assist_rate": 0.232, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1972, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5613, "xgot": 0.2102, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8631, "total_progression": 16.0091, "progressive_carries": 0.3944, "shots_off_target": 0.5098 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15700000, "quality_factor": 0.5868, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.5 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0983, "goals": 0.0993, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "shots_on_target": 0.3157, "total_shots": 0.7962, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "key_pass": 0.3079, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5693, "accurate_pass": 8.0761, "duels_won": 3.1458, "total_long_balls": 0.6726, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6726, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3888, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2116, "crosses_total": 0.158, "crosses_accurate": 0.158, "touches": 19.4483, "possession_lost": 6.7084, "dispossessed": 0.3101, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 1.9351, "total_contest": 1.0794, "won_contest": 0.7355, "ball_recovery": 1.3646, "challenges_lost": 0.3101, "fouls": 0.4374, "fouls_drawn": 0.5626, "assists": 0.2187, "assist_rate": 0.2187, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1859, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5291, "xgot": 0.1981, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5839, "total_progression": 15.09, "progressive_carries": 0.3718, "shots_off_target": 0.4805, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 27.46, "minutes_scale": 0.9426, "appearance_probability": 0.586 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0983, "goals": 0.0993, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "shots_on_target": 0.3157, "total_shots": 0.7962, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "key_pass": 0.3079, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5693, "accurate_pass": 8.0761, "duels_won": 3.1458, "total_long_balls": 0.6726, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6726, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3888, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2116, "crosses_total": 0.158, "crosses_accurate": 0.158, "touches": 19.4483, "possession_lost": 6.7084, "dispossessed": 0.3101, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 1.9351, "total_contest": 1.0794, "won_contest": 0.7355, "ball_recovery": 1.3646, "challenges_lost": 0.3101, "fouls": 0.4374, "fouls_drawn": 0.5626, "assists": 0.2187, "assist_rate": 0.2187, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1859, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5291, "xgot": 0.1981, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5839, "total_progression": 15.09, "progressive_carries": 0.3718, "shots_off_target": 0.4805, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0983, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3157, "total_shots": 0.7962, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "key_pass": 0.3079, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5693, "accurate_pass": 8.0761, "duels_won": 3.1458, "total_long_balls": 0.6726, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6726, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3888, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2116, "crosses_total": 0.158, "crosses_accurate": 0.158, "touches": 19.4483, "possession_lost": 6.7084, "dispossessed": 0.3101, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 1.9351, "total_contest": 1.0794, "won_contest": 0.7355, "ball_recovery": 1.3646, "challenges_lost": 0.3101, "fouls": 0.4374, "fouls_drawn": 0.5626, "assist_rate": 0.2187, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1859, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5291, "xgot": 0.1981, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5839, "total_progression": 15.09, "progressive_carries": 0.3718, "shots_off_target": 0.4805, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 0.8900, xG scale 1.8022, xA scale 1.6080, team xA 1.28 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1038, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3157, "total_shots": 0.7962, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "key_pass": 0.3079, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5693, "accurate_pass": 8.0761, "duels_won": 3.1458, "total_long_balls": 0.6726, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6726, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3888, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2116, "crosses_total": 0.158, "crosses_accurate": 0.158, "touches": 19.4483, "possession_lost": 6.7084, "dispossessed": 0.3101, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 1.9351, "total_contest": 1.0794, "won_contest": 0.7355, "ball_recovery": 1.3646, "challenges_lost": 0.3101, "fouls": 0.4374, "fouls_drawn": 0.5626, "assist_rate": 0.2187, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1859, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5291, "xgot": 0.2092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5839, "total_progression": 15.09, "progressive_carries": 0.3718, "shots_off_target": 0.4805, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.604, "squad_xg_sum": 0.89, "squad_xa_sum": 0.798, "team_expected_assists": 1.2832, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8022, "xa_scale": 1.608, "opponent_lambda": 1.379, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.586 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0983, "after": 0.1038 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1038, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3157, "total_shots": 0.7962, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "key_pass": 0.3079, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5693, "accurate_pass": 8.0761, "duels_won": 3.1458, "total_long_balls": 0.6726, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6726, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3888, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2116, "crosses_total": 0.158, "crosses_accurate": 0.158, "touches": 19.4483, "possession_lost": 6.7084, "dispossessed": 0.3101, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 1.9351, "total_contest": 1.0794, "won_contest": 0.7355, "ball_recovery": 1.3646, "challenges_lost": 0.3101, "fouls": 0.4374, "fouls_drawn": 0.5626, "assist_rate": 0.2187, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1859, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5291, "xgot": 0.2092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5839, "total_progression": 15.09, "progressive_carries": 0.3718, "shots_off_target": 0.4805, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3440, "fifa_rank": 2751.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1038, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3157, "total_shots": 0.7962, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "key_pass": 0.3079, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5693, "accurate_pass": 8.0761, "duels_won": 3.1458, "total_long_balls": 0.6726, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6726, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3888, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2116, "crosses_total": 0.158, "crosses_accurate": 0.158, "touches": 19.4483, "possession_lost": 6.7084, "dispossessed": 0.3101, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 1.9351, "total_contest": 1.0794, "won_contest": 0.7355, "ball_recovery": 1.3646, "challenges_lost": 0.3101, "fouls": 0.4374, "fouls_drawn": 0.5626, "assist_rate": 0.2187, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1859, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5291, "xgot": 0.2092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5839, "total_progression": 15.09, "progressive_carries": 0.3718, "shots_off_target": 0.4805, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0951, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "scorer_weight": 0.1045, "squad_weight_total": 1.6415, "weight_share": 0.0637, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Miguel Sierra", "weight": 0.287, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.287, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2755 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.2755, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2755, "runner_up": "Peque Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1887 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1038, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3157, "total_shots": 0.7962, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "key_pass": 0.3079, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 11.5693, "accurate_pass": 8.0761, "duels_won": 3.1458, "total_long_balls": 0.6726, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6726, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3888, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2116, "crosses_total": 0.158, "crosses_accurate": 0.158, "touches": 19.4483, "possession_lost": 6.7084, "dispossessed": 0.3101, "duels_lost": 3.1899, "aerial_lost": 1.9351, "total_contest": 1.0794, "won_contest": 0.7355, "ball_recovery": 1.3646, "challenges_lost": 0.3101, "fouls": 0.4374, "fouls_drawn": 0.5626, "assist_rate": 0.2187, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1859, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5291, "xgot": 0.2092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5839, "total_progression": 15.09, "progressive_carries": 0.3718, "shots_off_target": 0.4805, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0951, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0192, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0192, "assist_rate": 0.2187, "provider_weight": 0.0244, "squad_weight_total": 1.2113, "weight_share": 0.0201, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Youssouf Fofana", "weight": 0.2247, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2247, "runner_up": "Gabriel Suazo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1849 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.1849, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1849, "runner_up": "Giorgi Kochorashvili", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1394, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.6, "expected_assists": 1.28, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 381, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 21, "avg_rating": 6.83, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8 } }, "Alavés": { "formation": "5-3-2", "players": { "Antonio Sivera": { "player_id": 369004, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 184, "market_value": 5600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1155, "rating": 7.068, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 15, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 8, "touches": 35, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.6265, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 10.9229, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5624, "shots_faced": 15.2, "expected_saves": 3.72, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.470)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8276, "goals_prevented": -0.1155, "rating": 7.068, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.021, "accurate_pass": 15.2574, "total_long_balls": 18.909, "accurate_long_balls": 8.2039, "touches": 35.4355, "clearances": 1.2692, "ball_recovery": 8.6245, "high_claims": 0.7157, "punches": 0.6265, "aerial_won": 0.2977, "sweeper_actions": 0.8823, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8823, "saves_inside_box": 1.3522, "possession_lost": 10.9229, "duels_won": 0.3705, "duels_lost": 0.0248, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0004, "fouls_drawn": 0.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0339 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5600000, "quality_factor": 0.4695, "boost_factor": 0.999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 49, "history_shrink": 0.0926, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0120)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8337, "goals_prevented": -0.1155, "rating": 7.068, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.021, "accurate_pass": 15.2574, "total_long_balls": 18.909, "accurate_long_balls": 8.2039, "touches": 35.4355, "clearances": 1.2692, "ball_recovery": 8.6245, "high_claims": 0.7157, "punches": 0.6265, "aerial_won": 0.2977, "sweeper_actions": 0.8823, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8823, "saves_inside_box": 1.3522, "possession_lost": 10.9229, "duels_won": 0.3705, "duels_lost": 0.0248, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0004, "fouls_drawn": 0.0041, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0339 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.012, "history_matches": 49, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8276, "after": 2.8337 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8337, "goals_prevented": -0.1155, "rating": 7.068, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.021, "accurate_pass": 15.2574, "total_long_balls": 18.909, "accurate_long_balls": 8.2039, "touches": 35.4355, "clearances": 1.2692, "ball_recovery": 8.6245, "high_claims": 0.7157, "punches": 0.6265, "aerial_won": 0.2977, "sweeper_actions": 0.8823, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8823, "saves_inside_box": 1.3522, "possession_lost": 10.9229, "duels_won": 0.3705, "duels_lost": 0.0248, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0004, "fouls_drawn": 0.0041, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0339 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8337, "goals_prevented": -0.1155, "rating": 7.068, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.021, "accurate_pass": 15.2574, "total_long_balls": 18.909, "accurate_long_balls": 8.2039, "touches": 35.4355, "clearances": 1.2692, "ball_recovery": 8.6245, "high_claims": 0.7157, "punches": 0.6265, "aerial_won": 0.2977, "sweeper_actions": 0.8823, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8823, "saves_inside_box": 1.3522, "possession_lost": 10.9229, "duels_won": 0.3705, "duels_lost": 0.0248, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0004, "fouls_drawn": 0.0041, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0339, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5624, "shots_faced": 14.8, "expected_saves": 3.62, "high_pressure_saves": 1.25, "opponent_faced": "Youssouf Fofana, Miguel Sierra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Youssouf Fofana, Miguel Sierra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.5624 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8337, "goals_prevented": -0.1155, "rating": 7.068, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.021, "accurate_pass": 15.2574, "total_long_balls": 18.909, "accurate_long_balls": 8.2039, "touches": 35.4355, "clearances": 1.2692, "ball_recovery": 8.6245, "high_claims": 0.7157, "punches": 0.6265, "aerial_won": 0.2977, "sweeper_actions": 0.8823, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8823, "saves_inside_box": 1.3522, "possession_lost": 10.9229, "duels_won": 0.3705, "duels_lost": 0.0248, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0004, "fouls_drawn": 0.0041, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0339, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5624, "shots_faced": 14.8, "expected_saves": 3.62, "high_pressure_saves": 1.25, "opponent_faced": "Youssouf Fofana, Miguel Sierra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.38 (squad xG sum 0.9047, xG scale 1.5243, xA scale 1.5964, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8337, "goals_prevented": -0.1155, "rating": 7.068, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.021, "accurate_pass": 15.2574, "total_long_balls": 18.909, "accurate_long_balls": 8.2039, "touches": 35.4355, "clearances": 1.2692, "ball_recovery": 8.6245, "high_claims": 0.7157, "punches": 0.6265, "aerial_won": 0.2977, "sweeper_actions": 0.8823, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8823, "saves_inside_box": 1.3522, "possession_lost": 10.9229, "duels_won": 0.3705, "duels_lost": 0.0248, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0004, "fouls_drawn": 0.0041, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0339, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5624, "shots_faced": 15.2, "expected_saves": 3.72, "high_pressure_saves": 1.28, "opponent_faced": "Youssouf Fofana, Miguel Sierra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.379, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9047, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5615, "team_expected_assists": 0.8963, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5243, "xa_scale": 1.5964, "opponent_lambda": 1.604, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 14.8, "after": 15.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.62, "after": 3.72 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.25, "after": 1.28 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8337, "goals_prevented": -0.1155, "rating": 7.068, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.021, "accurate_pass": 15.2574, "total_long_balls": 18.909, "accurate_long_balls": 8.2039, "touches": 35.4355, "clearances": 1.2692, "ball_recovery": 8.6245, "high_claims": 0.7157, "punches": 0.6265, "aerial_won": 0.2977, "sweeper_actions": 0.8823, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8823, "saves_inside_box": 1.3522, "possession_lost": 10.9229, "duels_won": 0.3705, "duels_lost": 0.0248, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0004, "fouls_drawn": 0.0041, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0339, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5624, "shots_faced": 15.2, "expected_saves": 3.72, "high_pressure_saves": 1.28, "opponent_faced": "Youssouf Fofana, Miguel Sierra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 194, "fifa_rank": 156.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8337, "goals_prevented": -0.1155, "rating": 7.068, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.021, "accurate_pass": 15.2574, "total_long_balls": 18.909, "accurate_long_balls": 8.2039, "touches": 35.4355, "clearances": 1.2692, "ball_recovery": 8.6245, "high_claims": 0.7157, "punches": 0.6265, "aerial_won": 0.2977, "sweeper_actions": 0.8823, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8823, "saves_inside_box": 1.3522, "possession_lost": 10.9229, "duels_won": 0.3705, "duels_lost": 0.0248, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0004, "fouls_drawn": 0.0041, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0339, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5624, "shots_faced": 15.2, "expected_saves": 3.72, "high_pressure_saves": 1.28, "opponent_faced": "Youssouf Fofana, Miguel Sierra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4144, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Boyé", "weight": 0.452, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.452, "runner_up": "Ángel Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1844 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8337, "goals_prevented": -0.1155, "rating": 7.068, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.021, "accurate_pass": 15.2574, "total_long_balls": 18.909, "accurate_long_balls": 8.2039, "touches": 35.4355, "clearances": 1.2692, "ball_recovery": 8.6245, "high_claims": 0.7157, "punches": 0.6265, "aerial_won": 0.2977, "sweeper_actions": 0.8823, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8823, "saves_inside_box": 1.3522, "possession_lost": 10.9229, "duels_won": 0.3705, "duels_lost": 0.0248, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0004, "fouls_drawn": 0.0041, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0339, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5624, "shots_faced": 15.2, "expected_saves": 3.72, "high_pressure_saves": 1.28, "opponent_faced": "Youssouf Fofana, Miguel Sierra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.8284, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2341, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2341, "runner_up": "Pablo Ibáñez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1126, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lucas Boyé" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "player_id": 896073, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 182, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 9.8205, "dispossessed": 0.688, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0498, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0748, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.054, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734, "opponent_faced": "Jon Guridi", "pressing_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "matchup_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0721, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0466, "finishing_factor": 1.0071, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421091.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 4.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421077.0, "match_date": "2026-10-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1391, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421069.0, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0886, "expected_assists": 0.0586, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421056.0, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9981, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1915, "tackles": 2.2281, "tackles_won": 1.4211, "clearances": 3.5097, "aerial_won": 1.0799, "total_shots": 0.7977, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 87.55, "total_pass": 33.3166, "accurate_pass": 27.9848, "duels_won": 4.8671, "total_long_balls": 3.6492, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3819, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6546, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3302, "crosses_total": 1.2754, "crosses_accurate": 0.1757, "touches": 53.4963, "possession_lost": 9.8205, "dispossessed": 0.688, "duels_lost": 4.4655, "aerial_lost": 1.5746, "total_contest": 0.9399, "won_contest": 0.2261, "ball_recovery": 3.9466, "challenges_lost": 0.6665, "fouls": 0.8439, "fouls_drawn": 1.4516, "blocks": 0.382, "goals": 0.0463, 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1.2676 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7977, "after": 0.8039 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.4516, "after": 1.4456 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8439, "after": 0.8496 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1915, "after": 1.1969 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1969, "tackles": 2.2281, "tackles_won": 1.4195, "clearances": 3.5097, "aerial_won": 1.0799, "total_shots": 0.8039, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 87.55, "total_pass": 33.3166, "accurate_pass": 27.9848, "duels_won": 4.8671, "total_long_balls": 3.6492, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3819, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6546, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3302, "crosses_total": 1.2676, "crosses_accurate": 0.1757, "touches": 53.4963, "possession_lost": 9.8205, "dispossessed": 0.688, "duels_lost": 4.4655, "aerial_lost": 1.5746, 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Guridi", "pressing_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "matchup_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jon Guridi", "matchup_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1969, "tackles": 2.2281, "tackles_won": 1.4195, "clearances": 3.5097, "aerial_won": 1.0799, "total_shots": 0.8039, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 87.55, "total_pass": 33.3166, "accurate_pass": 27.9848, "duels_won": 4.8671, "total_long_balls": 3.6492, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3819, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6546, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3302, "crosses_total": 1.2676, "crosses_accurate": 0.1757, "touches": 53.4963, "possession_lost": 9.8205, "dispossessed": 0.688, "duels_lost": 4.4655, "aerial_lost": 1.5746, "total_contest": 0.9399, "won_contest": 0.2261, "ball_recovery": 3.9466, "challenges_lost": 0.6665, "fouls": 0.8496, "fouls_drawn": 1.4456, "blocks": 0.382, "goal_rate": 0.0498, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0491, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "shots_on_target": 0.2612, "big_chances_created": 0.0641, "xgot": 0.0354, "ball_carries": 13.1987, "total_progression": 64.2762, "progressive_carries": 1.3631, "key_pass": 0.1584, "shots_off_target": 0.5373, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734, "opponent_faced": "Jon Guridi", "pressing_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "matchup_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.38 (squad xG sum 0.9047, xG scale 1.5243, xA scale 1.5964, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1969, "tackles": 2.2281, "tackles_won": 1.4195, "clearances": 3.5097, "aerial_won": 1.0799, "total_shots": 0.8039, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 87.55, "total_pass": 33.3166, "accurate_pass": 27.9848, "duels_won": 4.8671, "total_long_balls": 3.6492, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3819, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6546, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3302, "crosses_total": 1.2676, "crosses_accurate": 0.1757, "touches": 53.4963, "possession_lost": 9.8205, "dispossessed": 0.688, "duels_lost": 4.4655, "aerial_lost": 1.5746, "total_contest": 0.9399, "won_contest": 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0.5615, "team_expected_assists": 0.8963, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5243, "xa_scale": 1.5964, "opponent_lambda": 1.604, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0491, "after": 0.0748 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0299, "after": 0.0477 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1969, "tackles": 2.2281, "tackles_won": 1.4195, "clearances": 3.5097, "aerial_won": 1.0799, "total_shots": 0.8039, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 87.55, "total_pass": 33.3166, "accurate_pass": 27.9848, "duels_won": 4.8671, "total_long_balls": 3.6492, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3819, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6546, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3302, "crosses_total": 1.2676, "crosses_accurate": 0.1757, "touches": 53.4963, "possession_lost": 9.8205, "dispossessed": 0.688, "duels_lost": 4.4655, "aerial_lost": 1.5746, "total_contest": 0.9399, "won_contest": 0.2261, "ball_recovery": 3.9466, "challenges_lost": 0.6665, "fouls": 0.8496, "fouls_drawn": 1.4456, "blocks": 0.382, "goal_rate": 0.0498, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0748, "expected_assists": 0.0477, 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ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1969, "tackles": 2.2281, "tackles_won": 1.4195, "clearances": 3.5097, "aerial_won": 1.0799, "total_shots": 0.8039, "rating": 6.7416, "minutes": 87.55, "total_pass": 33.3166, "accurate_pass": 27.9848, "duels_won": 4.8671, "total_long_balls": 3.6492, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3819, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6546, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3302, "crosses_total": 1.2676, "crosses_accurate": 0.1757, "touches": 53.4963, "possession_lost": 9.8205, "dispossessed": 0.688, "duels_lost": 4.4655, "aerial_lost": 1.5746, "total_contest": 0.9399, "won_contest": 0.2261, "ball_recovery": 3.9466, "challenges_lost": 0.6665, "fouls": 0.8496, "fouls_drawn": 1.4456, "blocks": 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"contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0307, "total": 0.4137, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.071526 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052331 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023073 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.014893 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.00937 } ], "others_margin": -0.030767 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.701952934265137, "model_output": 6.702, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0377, "total": 6.702, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017015 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014105 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.010898 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009072 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008047 } ], "others_margin": -0.037691 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9097, "tackles": 1.83, "tackles_won": 1.1822, "clearances": 2.8504, "aerial_won": 0.7828, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.702, "minutes": 84.85, "total_pass": 39.6365, "accurate_pass": 34.0487, "duels_won": 3.0943, "total_long_balls": 3.3912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0833, "total_own_half_passes": 23.9802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4152, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6335, "crosses_total": 0.3013, "crosses_accurate": 0.1644, "touches": 55.0812, "possession_lost": 8.1143, "dispossessed": 0.4472, "duels_lost": 3.0374, "aerial_lost": 0.8272, "total_contest": 0.9198, "won_contest": 0.461, "ball_recovery": 3.6089, "challenges_lost": 0.752, "fouls": 0.5595, "fouls_drawn": 0.5192, "blocks": 0.512, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "expected_assists": 0.0234, "shots_on_target": 0.1014, "big_chances_created": 0.0046, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 15.3553, "total_progression": 73.9225, "progressive_carries": 1.2841, "key_pass": 0.2226, "shots_off_target": 0.3114 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9097, "tackles": 1.83, "tackles_won": 1.1822, "clearances": 2.8504, "aerial_won": 0.7828, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.702, "minutes": 84.85, "total_pass": 39.6365, "accurate_pass": 34.0487, "duels_won": 3.0943, "total_long_balls": 3.3912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0833, "total_own_half_passes": 23.9802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4152, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6335, "crosses_total": 0.3013, "crosses_accurate": 0.1644, "touches": 55.0812, "possession_lost": 8.1143, "dispossessed": 0.4472, "duels_lost": 3.0374, "aerial_lost": 0.8272, "total_contest": 0.9198, "won_contest": 0.461, "ball_recovery": 3.6089, "challenges_lost": 0.752, "fouls": 0.5595, "fouls_drawn": 0.5192, "blocks": 0.512, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "expected_assists": 0.0234, "shots_on_target": 0.1014, "big_chances_created": 0.0046, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 15.3553, "total_progression": 73.9225, "progressive_carries": 1.2841, "key_pass": 0.2226, "shots_off_target": 0.3114 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9097, "tackles": 1.83, "tackles_won": 1.1822, "clearances": 2.8504, "aerial_won": 0.7828, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.702, "minutes": 84.85, "total_pass": 39.6365, "accurate_pass": 34.0487, "duels_won": 3.0943, "total_long_balls": 3.3912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0833, "total_own_half_passes": 23.9802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4152, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6335, "crosses_total": 0.3013, "crosses_accurate": 0.1644, "touches": 55.0812, "possession_lost": 8.1143, "dispossessed": 0.4472, "duels_lost": 3.0374, "aerial_lost": 0.8272, "total_contest": 0.9198, "won_contest": 0.461, "ball_recovery": 3.6089, "challenges_lost": 0.752, "fouls": 0.5595, "fouls_drawn": 0.5192, "blocks": 0.512, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "expected_assists": 0.0234, "shots_on_target": 0.1014, "big_chances_created": 0.0046, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 15.3553, "total_progression": 73.9225, "progressive_carries": 1.2841, "key_pass": 0.2226, "shots_off_target": 0.3114, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758, "opponent_faced": "Peque Fernández", "pressing_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Peque Fernández", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9097, "tackles": 1.83, "tackles_won": 1.1822, "clearances": 2.8504, "aerial_won": 0.7828, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.702, "minutes": 84.85, "total_pass": 39.6365, "accurate_pass": 34.0487, "duels_won": 3.0943, "total_long_balls": 3.3912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0833, "total_own_half_passes": 23.9802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4152, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6335, "crosses_total": 0.3013, "crosses_accurate": 0.1644, "touches": 55.0812, "possession_lost": 8.1143, "dispossessed": 0.4472, "duels_lost": 3.0374, "aerial_lost": 0.8272, "total_contest": 0.9198, "won_contest": 0.461, "ball_recovery": 3.6089, "challenges_lost": 0.752, "fouls": 0.5595, "fouls_drawn": 0.5192, "blocks": 0.512, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "expected_assists": 0.0234, "shots_on_target": 0.1014, "big_chances_created": 0.0046, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 15.3553, "total_progression": 73.9225, "progressive_carries": 1.2841, "key_pass": 0.2226, "shots_off_target": 0.3114, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758, "opponent_faced": "Peque Fernández", "pressing_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.38 (squad xG sum 0.9047, xG scale 1.5243, xA scale 1.5964, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9097, "tackles": 1.83, "tackles_won": 1.1822, "clearances": 2.8504, "aerial_won": 0.7828, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.702, "minutes": 84.85, "total_pass": 39.6365, "accurate_pass": 34.0487, "duels_won": 3.0943, "total_long_balls": 3.3912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0833, "total_own_half_passes": 23.9802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4152, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6335, "crosses_total": 0.3013, "crosses_accurate": 0.1644, "touches": 55.0812, "possession_lost": 8.1143, "dispossessed": 0.4472, "duels_lost": 3.0374, "aerial_lost": 0.8272, "total_contest": 0.9198, "won_contest": 0.461, "ball_recovery": 3.6089, "challenges_lost": 0.752, "fouls": 0.5595, "fouls_drawn": 0.5192, "blocks": 0.512, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0187, "expected_assists": 0.0374, "shots_on_target": 0.1014, "big_chances_created": 0.0046, "xgot": 0.0248, "ball_carries": 15.3553, "total_progression": 73.9225, "progressive_carries": 1.2841, "key_pass": 0.2226, "shots_off_target": 0.3114, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758, "opponent_faced": "Peque Fernández", "pressing_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8026, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.379, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9047, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5615, "team_expected_assists": 0.8963, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5243, "xa_scale": 1.5964, "opponent_lambda": 1.604, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0123, "after": 0.0187 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0234, "after": 0.0374 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9097, "tackles": 1.83, "tackles_won": 1.1822, "clearances": 2.8504, "aerial_won": 0.7828, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.702, "minutes": 84.85, "total_pass": 39.6365, "accurate_pass": 34.0487, "duels_won": 3.0943, "total_long_balls": 3.3912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0833, "total_own_half_passes": 23.9802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4152, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6335, "crosses_total": 0.3013, "crosses_accurate": 0.1644, "touches": 55.0812, "possession_lost": 8.1143, "dispossessed": 0.4472, "duels_lost": 3.0374, "aerial_lost": 0.8272, "total_contest": 0.9198, "won_contest": 0.461, "ball_recovery": 3.6089, "challenges_lost": 0.752, "fouls": 0.5595, "fouls_drawn": 0.5192, "blocks": 0.512, "goal_rate": 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"weight_share": 0.0106, "finishing_factor": 0.8026, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Boyé", "weight": 0.452, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.452, "runner_up": "Ángel Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1844 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9097, "tackles": 1.83, "tackles_won": 1.1822, "clearances": 2.8504, "aerial_won": 0.7828, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.702, "minutes": 84.85, "total_pass": 39.6365, "accurate_pass": 34.0487, "duels_won": 3.0943, "total_long_balls": 3.3912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0833, "total_own_half_passes": 23.9802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4152, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6335, "crosses_total": 0.3013, "crosses_accurate": 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0758 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0507 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0185 } ], "others": -0.0458, "total": 0.3926, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.075828 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050671 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.019504 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018736 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018518 } ], "others_margin": -0.045741 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.779129505157471, "model_output": 6.7791, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.01 } ], "others": 0.0289, "total": 6.7791, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017502 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016849 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.012719 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011589 }, { "name": 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0281, "creation_factor": 0.8224 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.379, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9047, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5615, "team_expected_assists": 0.8963, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5243, "xa_scale": 1.5964, "opponent_lambda": 1.604, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0782, "after": 0.1192 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0108, "after": 0.0172 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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}, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5969529151916504, "model_output": 0.597, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0167 } ], "others": -0.0251, "total": 0.597, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06372 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.025304 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.01821 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", 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"interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0571 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0522 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0427 } ], "others": -0.1573, "total": 0.6993, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124007 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.100318 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.057128 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.052176 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.042651 } ], "others_margin": -0.157411 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.904537200927734, "model_output": 6.9045, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": 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3.7165, "total_own_half_passes": 21.7538, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2044, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8247, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.8163, "crosses_total": 0.9746, "crosses_accurate": 0.3874, "touches": 57.3632, "possession_lost": 8.3603, "dispossessed": 0.9047, "duels_lost": 4.1738, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4194, "interceptions": 1.1771, "tackles_won": 0.8882, "tackles": 2.0552, "clearances": 0.8548, "total_contest": 0.8642, "won_contest": 0.5516, "challenges_lost": 1.0475, "fouls": 1.5059, "fouls_drawn": 0.6918, "blocks": 0.1349, "big_chances_created": 0.2814, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 14.573, "total_progression": 21.3916, "progressive_carries": 0.2174, "shots_off_target": 0.4335, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.87, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.362, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": 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"importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3259 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1669 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0711 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0677 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0507 } ], "others": -0.0455, "total": 1.6217, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.325881 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.166876 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.071138 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.067705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.050665 } ], "others_margin": -0.045546 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.861083030700684, "model_output": 6.8611, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": 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"role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.152, "expected_assists": 0.148, "assists": 0.1424, "assist_rate": 0.1424, "expected_goals": 0.1342, "goals": 0.1445, "goal_rate": 0.1445, "shots_on_target": 0.5858, "total_shots": 1.618, "rating": 6.8611, "minutes": 81.06, "total_pass": 20.0697, "accurate_pass": 15.2681, "duels_won": 3.9214, "total_long_balls": 2.1483, "accurate_long_balls": 1.033, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.409, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8591, "crosses_total": 3.714, "crosses_accurate": 1.1938, "touches": 39.6673, "possession_lost": 11.9195, "dispossessed": 0.3946, "duels_lost": 3.8874, "aerial_won": 0.1879, "aerial_lost": 0.0886, "interceptions": 0.7554, "tackles_won": 0.7038, "tackles": 1.0645, "clearances": 0.8783, 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"total_own_half_passes": 6.7602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.409, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8591, "crosses_total": 3.7021, "crosses_accurate": 1.1938, "touches": 39.6673, "possession_lost": 11.9195, "dispossessed": 0.3946, "duels_lost": 3.8874, "aerial_won": 0.1879, "aerial_lost": 0.0886, "interceptions": 0.7616, "tackles_won": 0.6983, "tackles": 1.0645, "clearances": 0.8783, "total_contest": 3.3247, "won_contest": 1.4347, "challenges_lost": 0.4342, "fouls": 1.0804, "fouls_drawn": 1.2199, "blocks": 0.2275, "big_chances_created": 0.5885, "big_chances_missed": 0.0987, "xgot": 0.1175, "ball_carries": 11.3964, "total_progression": 64.1864, "progressive_carries": 2.645, "shots_off_target": 1.0322 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0168, "history_matches": 26, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9007, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2343, "after": 1.2199 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.714, "after": 3.7021 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7554, "after": 0.7616 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.086, "after": 1.0804 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7038, "after": 0.6983 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.152, "expected_assists": 0.148, "assists": 0.1463, "assist_rate": 0.1463, "expected_goals": 0.1342, "goals": 0.1421, "goal_rate": 0.1421, "shots_on_target": 0.5823, "total_shots": 1.6164, "rating": 6.8611, "minutes": 81.06, "total_pass": 20.0697, "accurate_pass": 15.2681, "duels_won": 3.9214, "total_long_balls": 2.1483, "accurate_long_balls": 1.033, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.409, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8591, "crosses_total": 3.7021, "crosses_accurate": 1.1938, "touches": 39.6673, "possession_lost": 11.9195, "dispossessed": 0.3946, "duels_lost": 3.8874, "aerial_won": 0.1879, "aerial_lost": 0.0886, "interceptions": 0.7616, "tackles_won": 0.6983, "tackles": 1.0645, "clearances": 0.8783, "total_contest": 3.3247, "won_contest": 1.4347, "challenges_lost": 0.4342, "fouls": 1.0804, "fouls_drawn": 1.2199, "blocks": 0.2275, "big_chances_created": 0.5885, "big_chances_missed": 0.0987, "xgot": 0.1175, "ball_carries": 11.3964, "total_progression": 64.1864, "progressive_carries": 2.645, "shots_off_target": 1.0322 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.152, "expected_assists": 0.148, "assists": 0.1463, "assist_rate": 0.1463, "expected_goals": 0.1162, "goals": 0.1231, "goal_rate": 0.1231, "shots_on_target": 0.5044, "total_shots": 1.4001, "rating": 6.8611, "minutes": 81.06, "total_pass": 20.0697, "accurate_pass": 15.2681, "duels_won": 3.9214, "total_long_balls": 2.1483, "accurate_long_balls": 1.033, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.409, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8591, "crosses_total": 3.7021, "crosses_accurate": 1.1938, "touches": 39.6673, "possession_lost": 11.9195, "dispossessed": 0.3946, "duels_lost": 3.8874, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0886, "interceptions": 0.7616, "tackles_won": 0.6983, "tackles": 1.0645, "clearances": 0.8783, "total_contest": 3.3247, "won_contest": 1.4347, "challenges_lost": 0.4342, "fouls": 1.0804, "fouls_drawn": 1.2199, "blocks": 0.2275, "big_chances_created": 0.5885, "big_chances_missed": 0.0855, "xgot": 0.1018, "ball_carries": 11.3964, "total_progression": 64.1864, "progressive_carries": 2.645, "shots_off_target": 0.8941, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8662, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.359, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.359, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8662, "skill_edge": -0.083, "height_edge": -0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.4635, "defender_skill": 0.648, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "market_value": 18500000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.648 } ], "xg_override": 0.1162 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1879, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6164, "after": 1.4001 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0322, 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5.409, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8591, "crosses_total": 3.7021, "crosses_accurate": 1.1938, "touches": 39.6673, "possession_lost": 11.9195, "dispossessed": 0.3946, "duels_lost": 3.8874, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0886, "interceptions": 0.7616, "tackles_won": 0.6983, "tackles": 1.0645, "clearances": 0.8783, "total_contest": 3.3247, "won_contest": 1.4347, "challenges_lost": 0.4342, "fouls": 1.0804, "fouls_drawn": 1.2199, "blocks": 0.2275, "big_chances_created": 0.5885, "big_chances_missed": 0.0855, "xgot": 0.1018, "ball_carries": 11.3964, "total_progression": 64.1864, "progressive_carries": 2.645, "shots_off_target": 0.8941, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8662, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.359, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.38 (squad xG sum 0.9047, xG scale 1.5243, xA scale 1.5964, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.152, "expected_assists": 0.2361, "assist_rate": 0.1463, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goal_rate": 0.1231, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5044, "total_shots": 1.4001, "rating": 6.8611, "minutes": 81.06, "total_pass": 20.0697, "accurate_pass": 15.2681, "duels_won": 3.9214, "total_long_balls": 2.1483, "accurate_long_balls": 1.033, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.409, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8591, 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0415, "creation_factor": 0.9914 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.379, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9047, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5615, "team_expected_assists": 0.8963, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5243, "xa_scale": 1.5964, "opponent_lambda": 1.604, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1162, "after": 0.1771 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.148, "after": 0.2361 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.152, "expected_assists": 0.2361, "assist_rate": 0.1463, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goal_rate": 0.1231, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5044, "total_shots": 1.4001, "rating": 6.8611, "minutes": 81.06, "total_pass": 20.0697, "accurate_pass": 15.2681, "duels_won": 3.9214, "total_long_balls": 2.1483, "accurate_long_balls": 1.033, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.409, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8591, "crosses_total": 3.7021, "crosses_accurate": 1.1938, "touches": 39.6673, "possession_lost": 11.9195, "dispossessed": 0.3946, "duels_lost": 3.8874, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0886, "interceptions": 0.7616, "tackles_won": 0.6983, "tackles": 1.0645, "clearances": 0.8783, "total_contest": 3.3247, "won_contest": 1.4347, "challenges_lost": 0.4342, "fouls": 1.0804, "fouls_drawn": 1.2199, "blocks": 0.2275, "big_chances_created": 0.5885, "big_chances_missed": 0.0855, "xgot": 0.1552, "ball_carries": 11.3964, "total_progression": 64.1864, "progressive_carries": 2.645, "shots_off_target": 0.8941, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8662, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.359, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0415, "creation_factor": 0.9914, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4209, "fifa_rank": 4243.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.152, "expected_assists": 0.2361, "assist_rate": 0.1463, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goal_rate": 0.1231, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5044, "total_shots": 1.4001, "rating": 6.8611, "minutes": 81.06, "total_pass": 20.0697, "accurate_pass": 15.2681, "duels_won": 3.9214, "total_long_balls": 2.1483, "accurate_long_balls": 1.033, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.409, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8591, "crosses_total": 3.7021, "crosses_accurate": 1.1938, "touches": 39.6673, "possession_lost": 11.9195, "dispossessed": 0.3946, "duels_lost": 3.8874, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0886, "interceptions": 0.7616, "tackles_won": 0.6983, "tackles": 1.0645, "clearances": 0.8783, "total_contest": 3.3247, "won_contest": 1.4347, "challenges_lost": 0.4342, "fouls": 1.0804, "fouls_drawn": 1.2199, "blocks": 0.2275, "big_chances_created": 0.5885, "big_chances_missed": 0.0855, "xgot": 0.1552, "ball_carries": 11.3964, "total_progression": 64.1864, "progressive_carries": 2.645, "shots_off_target": 0.8941, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8662, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.359, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1623, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0415, "creation_factor": 0.9914, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1623, "goal_rate": 0.1231, "scorer_weight": 0.1844, "squad_weight_total": 1.4144, "weight_share": 0.1304, "finishing_factor": 1.0415, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Boyé", "weight": 0.452, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.452, "runner_up": "Ángel Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1844 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.152, "expected_assists": 0.2361, "assist_rate": 0.1463, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goal_rate": 0.1231, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5044, "total_shots": 1.4001, "rating": 6.8611, "minutes": 81.06, "total_pass": 20.0697, "accurate_pass": 15.2681, "duels_won": 3.9214, 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7487, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "assists": 0.0713, "assist_rate": 0.0713, "expected_goals": 0.0743, "goals": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.2474, "total_shots": 0.978, "rating": 6.8387, "minutes": 82.73, "total_pass": 30.7522, "accurate_pass": 26.2215, "duels_won": 6.6795, "total_long_balls": 2.1895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.899, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0816, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9088, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6708, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3128, "crosses_total": 1.8608, "crosses_accurate": 0.4649, "touches": 50.441, "possession_lost": 10.4604, "dispossessed": 1.4386, "duels_lost": 5.4302, "aerial_won": 0.9386, "aerial_lost": 0.8543, "interceptions": 1.4278, "tackles_won": 1.2609, "tackles": 2.5346, "clearances": 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"opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8403, "skill_edge": -0.0846, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.46, "defender_skill": 0.648, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "market_value": 18500000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.648 } ], "xg_override": 0.0624 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9848, "after": 0.8275 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7306, "after": 0.6139 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.9386, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2481, "after": 0.2085 }, { "stat": 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"contribution": -0.0498 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.027 } ], "others": -0.0618, "total": 0.736, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.242223 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.058214 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.039657 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03618 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.034411 } ], "others_margin": -0.080493 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.796722412109375, "model_output": 6.7967, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0539 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0212, "total": 6.7967, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053914 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016243 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010329 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.007689 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.007496 } ], "others_margin": -0.021254 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9987, quality 0.466)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3058, "goals": 0.3167, "goal_rate": 0.3167, "shots_on_target": 0.7235, "total_shots": 2.0755, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "key_pass": 0.7351, "rating": 6.7967, "minutes": 78.79, "total_pass": 15.5194, "accurate_pass": 11.187, "duels_won": 5.1662, "total_long_balls": 0.5571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3711, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0675, "crosses_total": 0.2402, "crosses_accurate": 0.0637, "touches": 34.8003, "possession_lost": 13.1566, "dispossessed": 1.7918, "duels_lost": 9.1689, "aerial_lost": 2.3351, "total_contest": 2.3641, "won_contest": 0.6536, "ball_recovery": 2.7996, "challenges_lost": 0.9393, "fouls": 2.5163, "fouls_drawn": 1.5011, "assists": 0.005, "assist_rate": 0.005, "interceptions": 0.0335, 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1787 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.085 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0601 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.045 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0402 } ], "others": -0.0301, "total": 0.7, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.229793 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.102781 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.079557 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.060218 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05365 } ], "others_margin": -0.042077 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.753178119659424, "model_output": 6.7532, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0476 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0593, "total": 6.7532, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047638 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034969 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.025775 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.015242 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014439 } ], "others_margin": -0.059404 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goals": 0.1366, "goal_rate": 0.1366, "shots_on_target": 0.3865, "total_shots": 0.9633, "expected_assists": 0.0637, "key_pass": 0.6985, "rating": 6.7532, "minutes": 74.34, "total_pass": 21.1665, "accurate_pass": 16.786, "duels_won": 3.9631, "total_long_balls": 2.1276, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1876, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5637, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6133, "crosses_total": 3.2672, "crosses_accurate": 0.3901, "touches": 42.2238, "possession_lost": 12.1523, "dispossessed": 0.343, "duels_lost": 4.1631, "aerial_lost": 0.6878, "total_contest": 1.9182, "won_contest": 0.7219, "ball_recovery": 3.7534, "challenges_lost": 0.9533, "fouls": 1.0716, "fouls_drawn": 0.9844, "assists": 0.0462, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "interceptions": 0.7751, 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"market_value": 2600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4432 } ], "xg_override": 0.0856 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9633, "after": 0.8444 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5768, "after": 0.5056 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3865, "after": 0.3388 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1751, "after": 0.1535 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1366, "after": 0.1197 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0977, "after": 0.0856 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0856, "goal_rate": 0.1197, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3388, "total_shots": 0.8444, "expected_assists": 0.0637, "key_pass": 0.6985, "rating": 6.7532, "minutes": 74.34, "total_pass": 21.1665, "accurate_pass": 16.786, "duels_won": 3.9631, "total_long_balls": 2.1276, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1876, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5637, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6133, "crosses_total": 3.2672, "crosses_accurate": 0.3901, "touches": 42.2238, "possession_lost": 12.1523, "dispossessed": 0.343, "duels_lost": 4.1631, "aerial_lost": 0.6878, "total_contest": 1.9182, "won_contest": 0.7219, "ball_recovery": 3.7534, "challenges_lost": 0.9533, "fouls": 1.0716, "fouls_drawn": 0.9844, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7751, "tackles_won": 1.0232, "tackles": 1.7693, "clearances": 0.9944, "blocks": 0.0793, "big_chances_created": 0.0721, "big_chances_missed": 0.1535, "xgot": 0.0261, "offsides": 0.203, "ball_carries": 11.7593, "total_progression": 66.5826, "progressive_carries": 2.3046, "shots_off_target": 0.5056, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8765, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": 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"opponent_defenders": "Kike Salas, Marcão", "opponent_faced": "Kike Salas, Marcão", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8461 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.379, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9047, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5615, "team_expected_assists": 0.8963, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5243, "xa_scale": 1.5964, "opponent_lambda": 1.604, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0856, "after": 0.1305 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0637, "after": 0.1017 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.466)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2796, "tackles": 0.4828, "tackles_won": 0.2985, "clearances": 0.8429, "aerial_won": 0.346, "total_shots": 0.1753, "rating": 6.649, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 10.4864, "accurate_pass": 8.4099, "duels_won": 1.4436, "total_long_balls": 1.672, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5485, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7821, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1681, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2417, "crosses_total": 1.9686, "crosses_accurate": 0.5183, "touches": 20.9033, "possession_lost": 4.9619, "dispossessed": 0.1291, "duels_lost": 1.3673, "aerial_lost": 0.0427, "total_contest": 0.5263, "won_contest": 0.2304, "ball_recovery": 0.6866, "challenges_lost": 0.1584, "fouls": 0.7412, "fouls_drawn": 0.3357, "blocks": 0.0819, "goals": 0.0, 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"Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1462, "tackles": 0.2525, "tackles_won": 0.1561, "clearances": 0.4408, "aerial_won": 0.1809, "total_shots": 0.0917, "rating": 6.649, "minutes": 13.68, "total_pass": 5.4836, "accurate_pass": 4.3977, "duels_won": 0.7549, "total_long_balls": 0.8743, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2868, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5007, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1796, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2181, "crosses_total": 1.0294, "crosses_accurate": 0.271, "touches": 10.9308, "possession_lost": 2.5947, "dispossessed": 0.1291, "duels_lost": 0.715, "aerial_lost": 0.0427, "total_contest": 0.2752, "won_contest": 0.1205, "ball_recovery": 0.359, "challenges_lost": 0.1584, "fouls": 0.3876, "fouls_drawn": 0.1755, "blocks": 0.0428, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.021, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, 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"projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1462, "tackles": 0.2525, "tackles_won": 0.1561, "clearances": 0.4408, "aerial_won": 0.1809, "total_shots": 0.0917, "rating": 6.649, "minutes": 13.68, "total_pass": 5.4836, "accurate_pass": 4.3977, "duels_won": 0.7549, "total_long_balls": 0.8743, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2868, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5007, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1796, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2181, "crosses_total": 1.0294, "crosses_accurate": 0.271, "touches": 10.9308, "possession_lost": 2.5947, "dispossessed": 0.1291, "duels_lost": 0.715, "aerial_lost": 0.0427, "total_contest": 0.2752, "won_contest": 0.1205, "ball_recovery": 0.359, "challenges_lost": 0.1584, "fouls": 0.3876, "fouls_drawn": 0.1755, "blocks": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.021, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, 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0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.03, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603.0, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": 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"assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2159, "combined_rank_score": 875.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 816.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6077, "sofascore_appearances": 13.0, "fifa_rank": 934.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6446, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Benavídez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Artem Dovbyk", "ranking": 2154 }, { "player_name": "Ferland Mendy", "ranking": 2155 }, { "player_name": "Aidan Simmons", "ranking": 2156 }, { "player_name": "Giorgio Scalvini", "ranking": 2157 }, { "player_name": "Federico Gatti", "ranking": 2158 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yunus Akgün", "ranking": 2160 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Vásquez", "ranking": 2161 }, { "player_name": "Georgios Vrakas", "ranking": 2162 }, { "player_name": "Kristoffer Ajer", "ranking": 2163 }, { "player_name": "Stefan Posch", "ranking": 2164 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 18, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 18, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 17.11, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.602, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9956, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 20.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (18 historical appearances) to 17.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 20.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3804, "tackles": 0.6725, "tackles_won": 0.4207, "clearances": 0.7532, "aerial_won": 0.3114, "total_shots": 0.168, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 8.7637, "accurate_pass": 6.7983, "duels_won": 1.5667, "total_long_balls": 1.0589, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5995, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4955, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1819, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6164, "crosses_total": 0.2341, "crosses_accurate": 0.0891, "touches": 13.6486, "possession_lost": 2.9854, "dispossessed": 0.3974, "duels_lost": 1.7597, "aerial_lost": 0.4117, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.145, "ball_recovery": 1.1391, "challenges_lost": 0.1706, "fouls": 0.5516, "fouls_drawn": 0.4017, "blocks": 0.2275, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.014, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "shots_on_target": 0.0286, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0082, "ball_carries": 3.661, "total_progression": 8.3469, "progressive_carries": 0.2821, "key_pass": 0.2119, "shots_off_target": 0.1394 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:04:53.735026+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 631, "rows": 22117 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-31", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1585, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Atlético 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{ "match_date": "2026-03-08", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0367, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 18.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 0.9334, "aerialWon": 0.2681, "totalClearance_p90": 2.4533, "totalTackle": 1.0318, "totalTackle_p90": 3.3839 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.380437433719635, "model_output": 0.3804, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4428 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": 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"totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0162 } ], "others": 0.0025, "total": 0.6725, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.820611 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.055416 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.038632 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.025758 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.024497 } ], "others_margin": 0.003546 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.4206598699092865, "model_output": 0.4207, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1951 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4648 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0268, "total": 0.4207, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.794126 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.055239 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.040961 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.030603 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.027943 } ], "others_margin": -0.061937 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.75318843126297, "model_output": 0.7532, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1293 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2984 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1032 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.068 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0526 } ], "others": -0.011, "total": 0.7532, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.976569 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.263956 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.110325 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.079997 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.066569 } ], "others_margin": -0.014407 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.31143224239349365, "model_output": 0.3114, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7624 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.214 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0399 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0186 } ], "others": -0.0401, "total": 0.3114, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.813259 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.434402 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.106853 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.059716 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.0544 } ], "others_margin": -0.121339 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16801504790782928, "model_output": 0.168, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2313 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.168, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.231259 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.024592 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.020726 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018025 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014725 } ], "others_margin": -0.003906 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.64457368850708, "model_output": 6.6446, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0429 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0387, "total": 6.6446, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.04295 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022049 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019459 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018301 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.012817 } ], "others_margin": -0.038631 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9956, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3788, "tackles": 0.6695, "tackles_won": 0.4188, "clearances": 0.7499, "aerial_won": 0.3101, "total_shots": 0.1673, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 8.7251, "accurate_pass": 6.7684, "duels_won": 1.5598, "total_long_balls": 1.0542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5969, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1723, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2406, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5961, "crosses_total": 0.2331, "crosses_accurate": 0.0887, "touches": 13.5885, "possession_lost": 2.9723, "dispossessed": 0.3957, "duels_lost": 1.752, "aerial_lost": 0.4099, "total_contest": 0.3717, "won_contest": 0.1444, "ball_recovery": 1.1341, "challenges_lost": 0.1698, "fouls": 0.5492, "fouls_drawn": 0.3999, "blocks": 0.2265, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "shots_on_target": 0.0285, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0082, "ball_carries": 3.6449, "total_progression": 8.3102, "progressive_carries": 0.2809, "key_pass": 0.211, "shots_off_target": 0.1388 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 960000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9956, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 18, "history_shrink": 0.2174, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0019)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3781, "tackles": 0.6695, "tackles_won": 0.418, "clearances": 0.7499, "aerial_won": 0.3101, "total_shots": 0.167, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 8.7251, "accurate_pass": 6.7684, "duels_won": 1.5598, "total_long_balls": 1.0542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5969, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1723, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2406, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5961, "crosses_total": 0.2327, "crosses_accurate": 0.0887, "touches": 13.5885, "possession_lost": 2.9723, "dispossessed": 0.3957, "duels_lost": 1.752, "aerial_lost": 0.4099, "total_contest": 0.3717, "won_contest": 0.1444, "ball_recovery": 1.1341, "challenges_lost": 0.1698, "fouls": 0.5482, "fouls_drawn": 0.3991, "blocks": 0.2265, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "shots_on_target": 0.0284, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0082, "ball_carries": 3.6449, "total_progression": 8.3102, "progressive_carries": 0.2809, "key_pass": 0.211, "shots_off_target": 0.1388 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0019, "history_matches": 18, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2643, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.8 to 17.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2719, "tackles": 0.4815, "tackles_won": 0.3006, "clearances": 0.5393, "aerial_won": 0.223, "total_shots": 0.1203, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 17.11, "total_pass": 6.2752, "accurate_pass": 4.8679, "duels_won": 1.1218, "total_long_balls": 0.7582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4293, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5623, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3056, "crosses_total": 0.1674, "crosses_accurate": 0.0638, "touches": 9.773, "possession_lost": 2.1377, "dispossessed": 0.3957, "duels_lost": 1.2601, "aerial_lost": 0.4099, "total_contest": 0.2673, "won_contest": 0.1039, "ball_recovery": 0.8157, "challenges_lost": 0.1698, "fouls": 0.3943, "fouls_drawn": 0.287, "blocks": 0.1629, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.01, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0204, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0059, "ball_carries": 2.6214, "total_progression": 5.9768, "progressive_carries": 0.202, "key_pass": 0.1518, "shots_off_target": 0.0998, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.11 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.11, "projection_minutes": 23.79, "minutes_scale": 0.7192, "appearance_probability": 0.602 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2719, "tackles": 0.4815, "tackles_won": 0.3006, "clearances": 0.5393, "aerial_won": 0.223, "total_shots": 0.1203, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 17.11, "total_pass": 6.2752, "accurate_pass": 4.8679, "duels_won": 1.1218, "total_long_balls": 0.7582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4293, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5623, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3056, "crosses_total": 0.1674, "crosses_accurate": 0.0638, "touches": 9.773, "possession_lost": 2.1377, "dispossessed": 0.3957, "duels_lost": 1.2601, "aerial_lost": 0.4099, "total_contest": 0.2673, "won_contest": 0.1039, "ball_recovery": 0.8157, "challenges_lost": 0.1698, "fouls": 0.3943, "fouls_drawn": 0.287, "blocks": 0.1629, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.01, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0204, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0059, "ball_carries": 2.6214, "total_progression": 5.9768, "progressive_carries": 0.202, "key_pass": 0.1518, "shots_off_target": 0.0998, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.11 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2719, "tackles": 0.4815, "tackles_won": 0.3006, 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"name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0309 } ], "others": -0.0778, "total": 0.2068, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.319876 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.268262 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04253 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.03866 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.030889 } ], "others_margin": -0.077951 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6868896484375, "model_output": 6.6869, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0878 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": -0.027, "total": 6.6869, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087831 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043033 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038604 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011754 } ], "others_margin": -0.026893 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9972, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2601, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assists": 0.0324, "assist_rate": 0.0324, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goals": 0.0275, "goal_rate": 0.0275, "shots_on_target": 0.0556, "total_shots": 0.2062, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 12.1212, "accurate_pass": 10.3001, "duels_won": 0.8741, "total_long_balls": 1.1446, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8444, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1974, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1027, "crosses_total": 0.2711, "crosses_accurate": 0.0611, "touches": 15.6714, "possession_lost": 2.9502, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.8797, "aerial_won": 0.2445, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.3011, "tackles_won": 0.1526, "tackles": 0.4284, "clearances": 0.2413, "total_contest": 0.1566, "won_contest": 0.0188, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.1415, "fouls_drawn": 0.1825, "blocks": 0.1586, "big_chances_created": 0.106, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.6345, "total_progression": 18.9823, "progressive_carries": 0.3621, "shots_off_target": 0.1506 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9972, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.1 to 10.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "assists": 0.021, "assist_rate": 0.021, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goals": 0.0178, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 10.44, "projection_minutes": 16.09, "minutes_scale": 0.6489, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "assists": 0.021, "assist_rate": 0.021, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goals": 0.0178, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "assist_rate": 0.021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.38 (squad xG sum 0.9047, xG scale 1.5243, xA scale 1.5964, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "assist_rate": 0.021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1319, "creation_factor": 1.0957 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.379, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9047, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5615, "team_expected_assists": 0.8963, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5243, "xa_scale": 1.5964, "opponent_lambda": 1.604, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "assist_rate": 0.021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1319, "creation_factor": 1.0957, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3847, "fifa_rank": 2886.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "assist_rate": 0.021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0103, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1319, "creation_factor": 1.0957, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0103, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "scorer_weight": 0.0118, "squad_weight_total": 1.4144, "weight_share": 0.0083, "finishing_factor": 1.1319, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Boyé", "weight": 0.452, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.452, "runner_up": "Ángel Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1844 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "assist_rate": 0.021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0103, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0162, "finishing_factor": 1.1319, "creation_factor": 1.0957, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.021, "provider_weight": 0.018, "squad_weight_total": 0.8284, "weight_share": 0.0217, "creation_factor": 1.0957, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2341, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2341, "runner_up": "Pablo Ibáñez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1126, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lucas Boyé" ] } ] } } ] }, "Carles Aleñá": { "player_id": 794937, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, 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"role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5386, "expected_assists": 0.0688, "assists": 0.0673, "assist_rate": 0.0673, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1664, "total_shots": 0.4019, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3031, "accurate_pass": 9.0504, "duels_won": 0.9832, "total_long_balls": 0.466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7759, "crosses_total": 1.4511, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2531, "possession_lost": 3.5154, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.421, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2806, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1706, "fouls_drawn": 0.4822, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2876, "total_progression": 5.2429, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2355 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5386, "expected_assists": 0.0688, "assists": 0.0673, "assist_rate": 0.0673, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.167, "total_shots": 0.4024, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3031, "accurate_pass": 9.0504, "duels_won": 0.9832, "total_long_balls": 0.466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7759, "crosses_total": 1.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2531, "possession_lost": 3.5154, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.421, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2814, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1705, "fouls_drawn": 0.482, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2876, "total_progression": 5.2429, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2355 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.202, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.2 to 13.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "assists": 0.0488, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.19, "projection_minutes": 18.18, "minutes_scale": 0.7255, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "assists": 0.0488, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.38 (squad xG sum 0.9047, xG scale 1.5243, xA scale 1.5964, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9852, "creation_factor": 0.989 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.379, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9047, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5615, "team_expected_assists": 0.8963, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5243, "xa_scale": 1.5964, "opponent_lambda": 1.604, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0499, "after": 0.0551 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9852, "creation_factor": 0.989, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2212, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.032, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9852, "creation_factor": 0.989, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.032, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "scorer_weight": 0.0323, "squad_weight_total": 1.4144, "weight_share": 0.0228, "finishing_factor": 0.9852, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Boyé", "weight": 0.452, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.452, "runner_up": "Ángel Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1844 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.032, 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"importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2444 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0366 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.016 } ], "others": -0.0478, "total": 0.3105, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.435861 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.085281 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.047715 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.045134 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.043695 } ], "others_margin": -0.143413 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 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"contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": 0.0067, "total": 0.0311, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.316524 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.285644 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.153857 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.119158 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.102979 } ], "others_margin": 0.241311 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.387543648481369, "model_output": 0.3875, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2795 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0521 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0317 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0247 } ], "others": 0.0089, "total": 0.3875, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.517613 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.119085 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.070658 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070011 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063155 } ], "others_margin": 0.02301 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.67508602142334, "model_output": 6.6751, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0481, "total": 6.6751, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.048098 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.032875 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015186 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009925 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009848 } ], "others_margin": -0.048067 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9910, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0614, "goals": 0.0736, "goal_rate": 0.0736, "shots_on_target": 0.2316, "total_shots": 0.577, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 12.79, "total_pass": 2.1467, "accurate_pass": 1.4831, "duels_won": 0.7705, "total_long_balls": 0.3274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3274, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1467, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4831, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.4, "possession_lost": 2.0976, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.0488, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1557, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3852, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3852, "tackles": 0.3852, "clearances": 0.2784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8683, "total_progression": 15.4724, "progressive_carries": 0.3852, "shots_off_target": 0.3454 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.991, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.8 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goals": 0.1104, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5181, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.37, "projection_minutes": 12.79, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goals": 0.1104, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5181, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5181, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.38 (squad xG sum 0.9047, xG scale 1.5243, xA scale 1.5964, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0789, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5181, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1288, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.379, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9047, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5615, "team_expected_assists": 0.8963, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5243, "xa_scale": 1.5964, "opponent_lambda": 1.604, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0921, "after": 0.0789 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0789, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5181, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1288, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4196, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0789, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5181, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0736, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1288, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0736, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "scorer_weight": 0.0891, "squad_weight_total": 1.4144, "weight_share": 0.063, "finishing_factor": 1.1288, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Boyé", "weight": 0.452, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.452, "runner_up": "Ángel Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1844 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0789, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, 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appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5386, "expected_assists": 0.0688, "assists": 0.0673, "assist_rate": 0.0673, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1664, "total_shots": 0.4019, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3031, "accurate_pass": 9.0504, "duels_won": 0.9832, "total_long_balls": 0.466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7759, "crosses_total": 1.4511, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2531, "possession_lost": 3.5154, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.421, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2806, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1706, "fouls_drawn": 0.4822, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2876, "total_progression": 5.2429, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2355 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5386, "expected_assists": 0.0688, "assists": 0.0673, "assist_rate": 0.0673, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.167, "total_shots": 0.4024, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3031, "accurate_pass": 9.0504, "duels_won": 0.9832, "total_long_balls": 0.466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7759, "crosses_total": 1.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2531, "possession_lost": 3.5154, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.421, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2814, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1705, "fouls_drawn": 0.482, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2876, "total_progression": 5.2429, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2355 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.202, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.2 to 13.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "assists": 0.0488, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.19, "projection_minutes": 18.18, "minutes_scale": 0.7255, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "assists": 0.0488, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.38 (squad xG sum 0.9047, xG scale 1.5243, xA scale 1.5964, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9852, "creation_factor": 0.989 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.379, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9047, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5615, "team_expected_assists": 0.8963, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5243, "xa_scale": 1.5964, "opponent_lambda": 1.604, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0499, "after": 0.0551 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9852, "creation_factor": 0.989, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2212, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.032, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9852, "creation_factor": 0.989, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.032, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "scorer_weight": 0.0323, "squad_weight_total": 1.4144, "weight_share": 0.0228, "finishing_factor": 0.9852, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Boyé", "weight": 0.452, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.452, "runner_up": "Ángel Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1844 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3908, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1212, "total_shots": 0.2921, "rating": 6.6995, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.032, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.053, "finishing_factor": 0.9852, "creation_factor": 0.989, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.053, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "provider_weight": 0.0545, "squad_weight_total": 0.8284, "weight_share": 0.0658, "creation_factor": 0.989, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2341, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2341, "runner_up": "Pablo Ibáñez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1126, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lucas Boyé" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ander Guevara": { "player_id": 891931, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 180, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "assist_rate": 0.021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": -0.027, "total": 6.6869, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087831 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043033 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038604 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011754 } ], "others_margin": -0.026893 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9972, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2601, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assists": 0.0324, "assist_rate": 0.0324, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goals": 0.0275, "goal_rate": 0.0275, "shots_on_target": 0.0556, "total_shots": 0.2062, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 12.1212, "accurate_pass": 10.3001, "duels_won": 0.8741, "total_long_balls": 1.1446, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8444, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1974, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6378, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1027, "crosses_total": 0.2711, "crosses_accurate": 0.0611, "touches": 15.6714, "possession_lost": 2.9502, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.8797, "aerial_won": 0.2445, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.3011, "tackles_won": 0.1526, "tackles": 0.4284, "clearances": 0.2413, "total_contest": 0.1566, "won_contest": 0.0188, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.1415, "fouls_drawn": 0.1825, "blocks": 0.1586, "big_chances_created": 0.106, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.6345, "total_progression": 18.9823, "progressive_carries": 0.3621, "shots_off_target": 0.1506 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9972, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.1 to 10.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "assists": 0.021, "assist_rate": 0.021, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goals": 0.0178, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 10.44, "projection_minutes": 16.09, "minutes_scale": 0.6489, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "assists": 0.021, "assist_rate": 0.021, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goals": 0.0178, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "assist_rate": 0.021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.38 (squad xG sum 0.9047, xG scale 1.5243, xA scale 1.5964, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "assist_rate": 0.021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1319, "creation_factor": 1.0957 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.379, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9047, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5615, "team_expected_assists": 0.8963, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5243, "xa_scale": 1.5964, "opponent_lambda": 1.604, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "assist_rate": 0.021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1319, "creation_factor": 1.0957, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3847, "fifa_rank": 2886.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "assist_rate": 0.021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0103, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1319, "creation_factor": 1.0957, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0103, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "scorer_weight": 0.0118, "squad_weight_total": 1.4144, "weight_share": 0.0083, "finishing_factor": 1.1319, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Boyé", "weight": 0.452, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.452, "runner_up": "Ángel Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1844 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1688, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "assist_rate": 0.021, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0104, "goal_rate": 0.0178, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "total_shots": 0.1338, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 10.44, "total_pass": 7.8648, "accurate_pass": 6.6832, "duels_won": 0.5672, "total_long_balls": 0.7427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5479, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7235, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9597, "crosses_total": 0.1759, "crosses_accurate": 0.0396, "touches": 10.1684, "possession_lost": 1.9142, "dispossessed": 0.4096, "duels_lost": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1586, "aerial_lost": 0.0785, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.099, "tackles": 0.278, "clearances": 0.1566, "total_contest": 0.1016, "won_contest": 0.0122, "challenges_lost": 0.1151, "fouls": 0.0918, "fouls_drawn": 0.1184, "blocks": 0.1029, "big_chances_created": 0.0688, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0071, "total_progression": 12.3167, "progressive_carries": 0.2349, "shots_off_target": 0.0977, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.44, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0103, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0162, "finishing_factor": 1.1319, "creation_factor": 1.0957, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0162, "assist_rate": 0.021, "provider_weight": 0.018, "squad_weight_total": 0.8284, "weight_share": 0.0217, "creation_factor": 1.0957, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2341, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2341, "runner_up": "Pablo Ibáñez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1126, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lucas Boyé" ] } ] } } ] }, "Carlos Benavídez": { "player_id": 873717, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 185, "market_value": 960000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6446, 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{ "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2313 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.168, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.231259 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.024592 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.020726 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018025 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014725 } ], "others_margin": -0.003906 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.64457368850708, "model_output": 6.6446, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0429 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0387, "total": 6.6446, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.04295 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022049 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019459 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018301 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.012817 } ], "others_margin": -0.038631 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9956, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3788, "tackles": 0.6695, "tackles_won": 0.4188, "clearances": 0.7499, "aerial_won": 0.3101, "total_shots": 0.1673, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 8.7251, "accurate_pass": 6.7684, "duels_won": 1.5598, "total_long_balls": 1.0542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5969, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1723, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2406, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5961, "crosses_total": 0.2331, "crosses_accurate": 0.0887, "touches": 13.5885, "possession_lost": 2.9723, "dispossessed": 0.3957, "duels_lost": 1.752, "aerial_lost": 0.4099, "total_contest": 0.3717, "won_contest": 0.1444, "ball_recovery": 1.1341, "challenges_lost": 0.1698, "fouls": 0.5492, "fouls_drawn": 0.3999, "blocks": 0.2265, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "shots_on_target": 0.0285, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0082, "ball_carries": 3.6449, "total_progression": 8.3102, "progressive_carries": 0.2809, "key_pass": 0.211, "shots_off_target": 0.1388 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 960000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9956, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 18, "history_shrink": 0.2174, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0019)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3781, "tackles": 0.6695, "tackles_won": 0.418, "clearances": 0.7499, "aerial_won": 0.3101, "total_shots": 0.167, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 8.7251, "accurate_pass": 6.7684, "duels_won": 1.5598, "total_long_balls": 1.0542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5969, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1723, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2406, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5961, "crosses_total": 0.2327, "crosses_accurate": 0.0887, "touches": 13.5885, "possession_lost": 2.9723, "dispossessed": 0.3957, "duels_lost": 1.752, "aerial_lost": 0.4099, "total_contest": 0.3717, "won_contest": 0.1444, "ball_recovery": 1.1341, "challenges_lost": 0.1698, "fouls": 0.5482, "fouls_drawn": 0.3991, "blocks": 0.2265, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "shots_on_target": 0.0284, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0082, "ball_carries": 3.6449, "total_progression": 8.3102, "progressive_carries": 0.2809, "key_pass": 0.211, "shots_off_target": 0.1388 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0019, "history_matches": 18, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2643, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.8 to 17.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2719, "tackles": 0.4815, "tackles_won": 0.3006, "clearances": 0.5393, "aerial_won": 0.223, "total_shots": 0.1203, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 17.11, "total_pass": 6.2752, "accurate_pass": 4.8679, "duels_won": 1.1218, "total_long_balls": 0.7582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4293, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5623, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3056, "crosses_total": 0.1674, "crosses_accurate": 0.0638, "touches": 9.773, "possession_lost": 2.1377, "dispossessed": 0.3957, "duels_lost": 1.2601, "aerial_lost": 0.4099, "total_contest": 0.2673, "won_contest": 0.1039, "ball_recovery": 0.8157, "challenges_lost": 0.1698, "fouls": 0.3943, "fouls_drawn": 0.287, "blocks": 0.1629, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.01, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0204, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0059, "ball_carries": 2.6214, "total_progression": 5.9768, "progressive_carries": 0.202, "key_pass": 0.1518, "shots_off_target": 0.0998, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.11 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.11, "projection_minutes": 23.79, "minutes_scale": 0.7192, "appearance_probability": 0.602 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2719, "tackles": 0.4815, "tackles_won": 0.3006, "clearances": 0.5393, "aerial_won": 0.223, "total_shots": 0.1203, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 17.11, "total_pass": 6.2752, "accurate_pass": 4.8679, "duels_won": 1.1218, "total_long_balls": 0.7582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4293, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5623, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3056, "crosses_total": 0.1674, "crosses_accurate": 0.0638, "touches": 9.773, "possession_lost": 2.1377, "dispossessed": 0.3957, "duels_lost": 1.2601, "aerial_lost": 0.4099, "total_contest": 0.2673, "won_contest": 0.1039, "ball_recovery": 0.8157, "challenges_lost": 0.1698, "fouls": 0.3943, "fouls_drawn": 0.287, "blocks": 0.1629, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.01, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0204, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0059, "ball_carries": 2.6214, "total_progression": 5.9768, "progressive_carries": 0.202, "key_pass": 0.1518, "shots_off_target": 0.0998, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.11 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2719, "tackles": 0.4815, "tackles_won": 0.3006, "clearances": 0.5393, "aerial_won": 0.223, "total_shots": 0.1203, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 17.11, "total_pass": 6.2752, "accurate_pass": 4.8679, "duels_won": 1.1218, "total_long_balls": 0.7582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4293, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5623, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3056, "crosses_total": 0.1674, "crosses_accurate": 0.0638, "touches": 9.773, "possession_lost": 2.1377, "dispossessed": 0.3957, "duels_lost": 1.2601, "aerial_lost": 0.4099, "total_contest": 0.2673, "won_contest": 0.1039, "ball_recovery": 0.8157, "challenges_lost": 0.1698, "fouls": 0.3943, "fouls_drawn": 0.287, "blocks": 0.1629, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.01, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0204, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0059, "ball_carries": 2.6214, "total_progression": 5.9768, "progressive_carries": 0.202, "key_pass": 0.1518, "shots_off_target": 0.0998, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.38 (squad xG sum 0.9047, xG scale 1.5243, xA scale 1.5964, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2719, "tackles": 0.4815, "tackles_won": 0.3006, "clearances": 0.5393, "aerial_won": 0.223, "total_shots": 0.1203, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 17.11, "total_pass": 6.2752, "accurate_pass": 4.8679, "duels_won": 1.1218, "total_long_balls": 0.7582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4293, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5623, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3056, "crosses_total": 0.1674, "crosses_accurate": 0.0638, "touches": 9.773, "possession_lost": 2.1377, "dispossessed": 0.3957, "duels_lost": 1.2601, "aerial_lost": 0.4099, "total_contest": 0.2673, "won_contest": 0.1039, "ball_recovery": 0.8157, "challenges_lost": 0.1698, "fouls": 0.3943, "fouls_drawn": 0.287, "blocks": 0.1629, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0092, "expected_assists": 0.006, "shots_on_target": 0.0204, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 2.6214, "total_progression": 5.9768, "progressive_carries": 0.202, "key_pass": 0.1518, "shots_off_target": 0.0998, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8333, "creation_factor": 0.8897 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.379, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9047, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5615, "team_expected_assists": 0.8963, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5243, "xa_scale": 1.5964, "opponent_lambda": 1.604, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.602 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2719, "tackles": 0.4815, "tackles_won": 0.3006, "clearances": 0.5393, "aerial_won": 0.223, "total_shots": 0.1203, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 17.11, "total_pass": 6.2752, "accurate_pass": 4.8679, "duels_won": 1.1218, "total_long_balls": 0.7582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4293, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5623, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3056, "crosses_total": 0.1674, "crosses_accurate": 0.0638, "touches": 9.773, "possession_lost": 2.1377, "dispossessed": 0.3957, "duels_lost": 1.2601, "aerial_lost": 0.4099, "total_contest": 0.2673, "won_contest": 0.1039, "ball_recovery": 0.8157, "challenges_lost": 0.1698, "fouls": 0.3943, "fouls_drawn": 0.287, "blocks": 0.1629, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0092, "expected_assists": 0.006, "shots_on_target": 0.0204, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 2.6214, "total_progression": 5.9768, "progressive_carries": 0.202, "key_pass": 0.1518, "shots_off_target": 0.0998, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8333, "creation_factor": 0.8897, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2159, "fifa_rank": 934.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2719, "tackles": 0.4815, "tackles_won": 0.3006, "clearances": 0.5393, "aerial_won": 0.223, "total_shots": 0.1203, "rating": 6.6446, "minutes": 17.11, "total_pass": 6.2752, "accurate_pass": 4.8679, "duels_won": 1.1218, "total_long_balls": 0.7582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4293, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5623, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3056, "crosses_total": 0.1674, "crosses_accurate": 0.0638, "touches": 9.773, "possession_lost": 2.1377, "dispossessed": 0.3957, "duels_lost": 1.2601, "aerial_lost": 0.4099, "total_contest": 0.2673, "won_contest": 0.1039, "ball_recovery": 0.8157, "challenges_lost": 0.1698, "fouls": 0.3943, "fouls_drawn": 0.287, "blocks": 0.1629, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0092, "expected_assists": 0.006, "shots_on_target": 0.0204, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 2.6214, "total_progression": 5.9768, "progressive_carries": 0.202, "key_pass": 0.1518, "shots_off_target": 0.0998, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0091, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8333, "creation_factor": 0.8897, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0091, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0077, "squad_weight_total": 1.4144, 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{ "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0247 } ], "others": 0.0089, "total": 0.3875, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.517613 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.119085 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.070658 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070011 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063155 } ], "others_margin": 0.02301 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.67508602142334, "model_output": 6.6751, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0481, "total": 6.6751, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.048098 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.032875 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015186 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009925 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009848 } ], "others_margin": -0.048067 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9910, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0614, "goals": 0.0736, "goal_rate": 0.0736, "shots_on_target": 0.2316, "total_shots": 0.577, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "key_pass": 0.3841, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 12.79, "total_pass": 2.1467, "accurate_pass": 1.4831, "duels_won": 0.7705, "total_long_balls": 0.3274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3274, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1467, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4831, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.4, "possession_lost": 2.0976, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.0488, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1557, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3852, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3852, "tackles": 0.3852, "clearances": 0.2784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8683, "total_progression": 15.4724, "progressive_carries": 0.3852, "shots_off_target": 0.3454 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.991, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.8 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goals": 0.1104, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5181, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.37, "projection_minutes": 12.79, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goals": 0.1104, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5181, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5181, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.38 (squad xG sum 0.9047, xG scale 1.5243, xA scale 1.5964, team xA 0.90 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0789, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5181, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1288, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.379, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9047, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5615, "team_expected_assists": 0.8963, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5243, "xa_scale": 1.5964, "opponent_lambda": 1.604, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0921, "after": 0.0789 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0789, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5181, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1288, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4196, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0789, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5181, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0736, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1288, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0736, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "scorer_weight": 0.0891, "squad_weight_total": 1.4144, "weight_share": 0.063, "finishing_factor": 1.1288, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lucas Boyé", "weight": 0.452, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.452, "runner_up": "Ángel Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1844 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0789, "goal_rate": 0.1104, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 0.8655, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "key_pass": 0.5761, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5181, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0736, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.04, "finishing_factor": 1.1288, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0332, "squad_weight_total": 0.8284, "weight_share": 0.0401, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2341, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2341, "runner_up": "Pablo Ibáñez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1126, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lucas Boyé" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.38, "expected_assists": 0.9, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 381, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 6.82, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Peque Fernández", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3300000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.441, "defenders": [ "Jonny Otto", "Facundo Garcés" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.242, "xg_contribution": 0.1067, "xg_multiplier": 0.9143, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jonny Otto", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758 }, { "player": "Facundo Garcés", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758 } ], "duel_analysis": "Peque Fernández (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Jonny Otto and Facundo Garcés in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.107 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jon Guridi", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Facundo Garcés" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.266, "xg_contribution": 0.0894, "xg_multiplier": 0.9495, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734 }, { "player": "Facundo Garcés", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Guridi (RW) is evenly matched against Nahuel Tenaglia and Facundo Garcés in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Youssouf Fofana", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 16300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.593, "defenders": [ "Antonio Blanco" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.519, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "xg_contribution": 0.1545, "xg_multiplier": 1.0997, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonio Blanco", "role": "CM", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.512 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youssouf Fofana (CAM) is slightly favored against Antonio Blanco in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.155 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Miguel Sierra", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7600000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.494, "defenders": [ "Facundo Garcés", "Ville Koski" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.445, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "xg_contribution": 0.1274, "xg_multiplier": 0.985, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Facundo Garcés", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81 }, { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Sierra (ST) is evenly matched against Facundo Garcés and Ville Koski in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.127 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lucien Agoumé", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 18500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.616, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.529, "xg_contribution": 0.0514, "xg_multiplier": 1.1597, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.471 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucien Agoumé (CDM) is slightly favored against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.16 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Giorgi Kochorashvili", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.409, "xg_contribution": 0.0474, "xg_multiplier": 0.9843, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.591 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giorgi Kochorashvili (CDM) is evenly matched against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Lucas Boyé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Kike Salas", "Marcão" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.51, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2864, "xg_multiplier": 0.9364, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kike Salas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marcão", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Boyé (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Kike Salas and Marcão in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.286 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Kike Salas", "Marcão" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.51, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0856, "xg_multiplier": 0.8765, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kike Salas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marcão", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abderrahman Rebbach (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Kike Salas and Marcão in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.086 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Juan Iglesias" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.472, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "xg_contribution": 0.0468, "xg_multiplier": 0.9524, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Iglesias", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nahuel Tenaglia (LWB) is evenly matched against Juan Iglesias in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jonny Otto", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Suazo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.494, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.345, "xg_contribution": 0.0113, "xg_multiplier": 0.9195, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonny Otto (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Suazo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.011 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Ibáñez", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "xg_contribution": 0.0624, "xg_multiplier": 0.8403, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Ibáñez (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Antonio Blanco", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.362, "xg_contribution": 0.0405, "xg_multiplier": 0.87, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.638 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antonio Blanco (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ángel Pérez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.359, "xg_contribution": 0.1162, "xg_multiplier": 0.8662, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.641 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ángel Pérez (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.116 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.558, "away_midfield_power": 0.476, "home_creative_power": 0.417, "away_creative_power": 0.483, "home_defensive_power": 0.496, "away_defensive_power": 0.48, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.54, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Youssouf Fofana", "Peque Fernández", "Jon Guridi", "Giorgi Kochorashvili" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Antonio Blanco", "Ángel Pérez", "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Lucien Agoumé vs Antonio Blanco", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.004, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.99 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.604, "away_lambda": 1.379, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "CAM vs CM", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Peque Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Jonny Otto", "Facundo Garcés", "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jon Guridi": { "opponents": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Facundo Garcés", "Antonio Blanco" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Youssouf Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Blanco", "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miguel Sierra": { "opponents": [ "Facundo Garcés", "Ville Koski" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucien Agoumé": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Antonio Blanco", "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Giorgi Kochorashvili": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kike Salas": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marcão": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Juan Iglesias": { "opponents": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Suazo": { "opponents": [ "Jonny Otto" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jonny Otto": { "opponents": [ "Peque Fernández", "Gabriel Suazo" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Facundo Garcés": { "opponents": [ "Peque Fernández", "Jon Guridi", "Miguel Sierra" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "opponents": [ "Jon Guridi", "Juan Iglesias" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Antonio Blanco": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana", "Lucien Agoumé", "Jon Guridi" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ville Koski": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Sierra" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ibáñez": { "opponents": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Giorgi Kochorashvili", "Youssouf Fofana", "Peque Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Boyé": { "opponents": [ "Kike Salas", "Marcão" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Abderrahman Rebbach": { "opponents": [ "Kike Salas", "Marcão" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ángel Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Giorgi Kochorashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antonio Sivera": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Sierra", "Youssouf Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Nicolás Valentini": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Sierra" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Lucien Agoumé vs Antonio Blanco will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.58, Away: 0.65. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0096, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.026, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.051, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9999, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9761, "home_midfield_factor": 1.004, "away_midfield_factor": 0.99, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5022, "away_avg_quality": 0.4538, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0485, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.6197, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.6852, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.536, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1253, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0689, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0401, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.5768, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.7701 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.004, "result": 0.7732 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7732 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.0374 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0027, "result": 1.0402 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9975, "result": 1.0376 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9999, "result": 1.0375 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.026, "result": 1.0635 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0635, "result": 1.0635, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1253, "factor": 1.0689, "pre": 1.0635, "result": 1.1368 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1368 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1562, "result": 1.2932 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 2.4741, "result": 1.5624 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5624, "result": 1.562, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.515 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9857, "pre": 1.515, "result": 1.4933, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.493 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.493 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.493, "result": 1.493, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.015, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.604 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6492, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8244 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.8162 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8162 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8162 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9707, "result": 0.7922 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0096, "result": 0.7999 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9761, "result": 0.7808 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.051, "result": 0.8318 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8318, "result": 0.8318, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1253, "factor": 0.9599, "pre": 0.8318, "result": 0.7984 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7984 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1525, "result": 0.9505 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 2.4691, "result": 1.2967 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2967, "result": 1.297, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.427 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0143, "pre": 1.427, "result": 1.4474, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.447 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.447 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.447, "result": 1.447, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.015, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.379 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1562, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1525, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sevilla", "away_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.474, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.469, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.493, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.447, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.5624, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2967, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.015, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.604, "final_away_lambda": 1.379 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0027, "attack_index": 1.027, "defense_concede_index": 0.969, "form_multiplier": 1.022, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.55, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.46, "team_ppg": 1.58, "opponent_ppg": 1.19 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9707, "attack_index": 0.914, "defense_concede_index": 1.027, "form_multiplier": 0.978, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.38, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.55, "team_ppg": 1.19, "opponent_ppg": 1.58 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Sevilla vs Alavés. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 5-3-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.562, Away 1.297). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.604, Away 1.379 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 6, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sevilla", "away_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.474, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.469, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.604, "away_lambda": 1.379, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.562, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.297 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.015, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:31:00Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }