{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Coventry", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261106", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1088, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1088, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.062, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Everton", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2354, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1118 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1088 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0981 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0969 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0628 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0628, "0-1": 0.062, "0-2": 0.0318, "0-3": 0.0107, "0-4": 0.0027, "0-5": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.1088, "1-1": 0.1118, "1-2": 0.0562, "1-3": 0.019, "1-4": 0.0048, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0969, "2-1": 0.0981, "2-2": 0.0497, "2-3": 0.0168, "2-4": 0.0043, "2-5": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.0571, "3-1": 0.0578, "3-2": 0.0293, "3-3": 0.0099, "3-4": 0.0025, "3-5": 0.0005, "4-0": 0.0252, "4-1": 0.0256, "4-2": 0.0129, "4-3": 0.0044, "4-4": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0089, "5-1": 0.009, "5-2": 0.0046, "5-3": 0.0015, "6-0": 0.0026, "6-1": 0.0027, "6-2": 0.0013, "7-0": 0.0007, "7-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5501, "draw": 0.2354, "away_win": 0.2145 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.526, "under_2_5_goals": 0.474, "btts_yes": 0.529, "btts_no": 0.471, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3631, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1707 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.88, "MCR": 6.94, "ATR": 6.81, "GK": 7.11 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.79, "MCR": 6.81, "ATR": 6.75, "GK": 6.91 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Everton vs Coventry. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Everton 2W-4D-4L vs Coventry over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Thierno Barry", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — James Garner vs Caleb Yirenkyi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.88, Away: 0.49. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.768, "away_lambda": 1.013, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 0.9857, "away_multiplier": 1.0143 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1118, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5501, "draw": 0.2354, "away_win": 0.2145 }, "favorite": "Everton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5501, "fair_spread": 0.755, "fair_total": 2.781, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.768, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.013, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.529, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3631, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1707, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Thierno Barry (Everton)", "estimate": 0.685, "probability": 0.4959, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jack Rudoni (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.2925, "probability": 0.2536, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Everton)", "estimate": 0.2751, "probability": 0.2405, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jack Rudoni (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.1714, "probability": 0.1575, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.781, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 772, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.0, "possession_home_pct": 51.1, "possession_away_pct": 48.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Everton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5501, "script": "Everton is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +0.76 goals and fair total 2.78.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Coventry must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Everton lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Everton chance creation leans on Thierno Barry against Ethan Pinnock, Bobby Thomas in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Everton: starters carry the main goal usage through Thierno Barry; bench watchlist: Hayden Hackney, Brennan Johnson, Carlos Alcaraz.", "Coventry: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Sidiki Cherif, Haji Wright, Josh Eccles.", "Assist usage should flow through Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Everton tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Coventry is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Everton.", "Coventry wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Everton": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Jordan Pickford": { "player_id": 138530, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 185, "market_value": 13900000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0862, "rating": 7.1109, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 21, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 50, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.2153, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 14.4718, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8262, "shots_faced": 9.6, "expected_saves": 2.35, "high_pressure_saves": 0.81, "opponent_faced": "Jack Rudoni, Loum Tchaouna", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 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46, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 46, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0018, 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"contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0473, "total": 0.3819, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.123859 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050395 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.022015 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010951 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.01053 } ], "others_margin": -0.047464 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.749817848205566, "model_output": 6.7498, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0154, "total": 6.7498, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022426 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018075 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015005 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011811 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.011056 } ], "others_margin": -0.015444 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0675, "tackles": 2.0676, "tackles_won": 1.2722, "clearances": 2.7239, "aerial_won": 1.48, "total_shots": 0.3842, "rating": 6.7498, "minutes": 87.67, "total_pass": 41.0293, "accurate_pass": 34.4696, "duels_won": 5.6194, "total_long_balls": 3.882, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1052, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.943, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5267, "crosses_total": 2.2029, "crosses_accurate": 0.3933, "touches": 64.87, "possession_lost": 13.0993, "dispossessed": 0.1499, "duels_lost": 3.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.0919, "total_contest": 0.8454, "won_contest": 0.4842, "ball_recovery": 4.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.8828, "fouls": 0.6524, "fouls_drawn": 1.1357, "blocks": 0.7212, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0069, "assist_rate": 0.0069, "expected_goals": 0.0057, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "shots_on_target": 0.0057, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0005, "ball_carries": 10.5029, "total_progression": 25.287, "progressive_carries": 0.5079, "key_pass": 0.653, "shots_off_target": 0.3785 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0619, "tackles": 2.0676, "tackles_won": 1.26, "clearances": 2.7239, "aerial_won": 1.48, "total_shots": 0.3805, "rating": 6.7498, "minutes": 87.67, "total_pass": 41.0293, "accurate_pass": 34.4696, "duels_won": 5.6194, "total_long_balls": 3.882, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1052, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.943, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5267, "crosses_total": 2.1958, "crosses_accurate": 0.3933, "touches": 64.87, "possession_lost": 13.0993, "dispossessed": 0.1499, "duels_lost": 3.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.0919, "total_contest": 0.8454, "won_contest": 0.4842, "ball_recovery": 4.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.8828, "fouls": 0.6508, "fouls_drawn": 1.1341, "blocks": 0.7212, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0068, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "expected_goals": 0.0057, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "shots_on_target": 0.0056, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0005, "ball_carries": 10.5029, "total_progression": 25.287, "progressive_carries": 0.5079, "key_pass": 0.653, "shots_off_target": 0.3785 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9741, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2722, "after": 1.26 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.2029, "after": 2.1958 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0675, "after": 1.0619 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0619, "tackles": 2.0676, "tackles_won": 1.26, "clearances": 2.7239, "aerial_won": 1.48, "total_shots": 0.3841, "rating": 6.7498, "minutes": 87.67, "total_pass": 41.0293, "accurate_pass": 34.4696, "duels_won": 5.6194, "total_long_balls": 3.882, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1052, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.943, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5267, "crosses_total": 2.1958, "crosses_accurate": 0.3933, "touches": 64.87, "possession_lost": 13.0993, "dispossessed": 0.1499, "duels_lost": 3.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.0919, "total_contest": 0.8454, "won_contest": 0.4842, "ball_recovery": 4.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.8828, "fouls": 0.6508, "fouls_drawn": 1.1341, "blocks": 0.7212, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0068, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "expected_goals": 0.0057, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "shots_on_target": 0.0056, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0005, "ball_carries": 10.5029, "total_progression": 25.287, "progressive_carries": 0.5079, "key_pass": 0.653, "shots_off_target": 0.3785 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0619, "tackles": 2.0676, "tackles_won": 1.26, "clearances": 2.7239, "aerial_won": 1.48, "total_shots": 0.3841, "rating": 6.7498, "minutes": 87.67, "total_pass": 41.0293, "accurate_pass": 34.4696, "duels_won": 5.6194, "total_long_balls": 3.882, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1052, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.943, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5267, "crosses_total": 2.1958, "crosses_accurate": 0.3933, "touches": 64.87, "possession_lost": 13.0993, "dispossessed": 0.1499, "duels_lost": 3.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.0919, "total_contest": 0.8454, "won_contest": 0.4842, "ball_recovery": 4.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.8828, "fouls": 0.6508, "fouls_drawn": 1.1341, "blocks": 0.7212, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0068, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "expected_goals": 0.0057, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "shots_on_target": 0.0056, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0005, "ball_carries": 10.5029, "total_progression": 25.287, "progressive_carries": 0.5079, "key_pass": 0.653, "shots_off_target": 0.3785, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663, "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0619, "tackles": 2.0676, "tackles_won": 1.26, "clearances": 2.7239, "aerial_won": 1.48, "total_shots": 0.3841, "rating": 6.7498, "minutes": 87.67, "total_pass": 41.0293, "accurate_pass": 34.4696, "duels_won": 5.6194, "total_long_balls": 3.882, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1052, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.943, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5267, "crosses_total": 2.1958, "crosses_accurate": 0.3933, "touches": 64.87, "possession_lost": 13.0993, "dispossessed": 0.1499, "duels_lost": 3.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.0919, "total_contest": 0.8454, "won_contest": 0.4842, "ball_recovery": 4.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.8828, "fouls": 0.6508, "fouls_drawn": 1.1341, "blocks": 0.7212, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0057, "expected_assists": 0.0564, "shots_on_target": 0.0056, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0005, "ball_carries": 10.5029, "total_progression": 25.287, "progressive_carries": 0.5079, "key_pass": 0.653, "shots_off_target": 0.3785, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663, "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.77 (squad xG sum 1.1362, xG scale 1.5561, xA scale 1.7084, team xA 1.15 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0619, "tackles": 2.0676, "tackles_won": 1.26, "clearances": 2.7239, "aerial_won": 1.48, "total_shots": 0.3841, "rating": 6.7498, "minutes": 87.67, "total_pass": 41.0293, "accurate_pass": 34.4696, "duels_won": 5.6194, "total_long_balls": 3.882, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1052, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.943, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5267, "crosses_total": 2.1958, "crosses_accurate": 0.3933, "touches": 64.87, "possession_lost": 13.0993, "dispossessed": 0.1499, "duels_lost": 3.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.0919, "total_contest": 0.8454, "won_contest": 0.4842, "ball_recovery": 4.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.8828, "fouls": 0.6508, "fouls_drawn": 1.1341, "blocks": 0.7212, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0089, "expected_assists": 0.0964, "shots_on_target": 0.0056, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 10.5029, "total_progression": 25.287, "progressive_carries": 0.5079, "key_pass": 0.653, "shots_off_target": 0.3785, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663, "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8977, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.768, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1362, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6727, "team_expected_assists": 1.1492, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5561, "xa_scale": 1.7084, "opponent_lambda": 1.013, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0564, "after": 0.0964 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0619, "tackles": 2.0676, "tackles_won": 1.26, "clearances": 2.7239, "aerial_won": 1.48, "total_shots": 0.3841, "rating": 6.7498, "minutes": 87.67, "total_pass": 41.0293, "accurate_pass": 34.4696, "duels_won": 5.6194, "total_long_balls": 3.882, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1052, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.943, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5267, "crosses_total": 2.1958, "crosses_accurate": 0.3933, "touches": 64.87, "possession_lost": 13.0993, "dispossessed": 0.1499, "duels_lost": 3.1352, "aerial_lost": 1.0919, "total_contest": 0.8454, "won_contest": 0.4842, "ball_recovery": 4.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.8828, "fouls": 0.6508, "fouls_drawn": 1.1341, "blocks": 0.7212, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0089, "expected_assists": 0.0964, "shots_on_target": 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0.7212, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0068, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0089, "expected_assists": 0.0964, "shots_on_target": 0.0056, "big_chances_created": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 10.5029, "total_progression": 25.287, "progressive_carries": 0.5079, "key_pass": 0.653, "shots_off_target": 0.3785, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663, "opponent_faced": "Matt Grimes", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0089, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8977, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0089, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1577 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0518 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0185 } ], "others": 0.0198, "total": 0.7235, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.157692 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051834 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.027572 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.022121 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.018467 } ], "others_margin": 0.01966 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.843890190124512, "model_output": 6.8439, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0413 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": 0.0066, "total": 6.8439, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.041322 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015406 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.01177 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.010682 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009931 } ], "others_margin": 0.006672 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0773, "tackles": 1.4048, "tackles_won": 0.8098, "clearances": 6.1491, "aerial_won": 3.4598, "total_shots": 0.7216, "rating": 6.8439, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 0.4027, "fouls": 0.5427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0753, "blocks": 0.7699, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0.1089, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0588, "ball_carries": 13.9745, "total_progression": 40.1915, "progressive_carries": 0.1019, "key_pass": 0.1111, "shots_off_target": 0.5209 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0773, "tackles": 1.4048, "tackles_won": 0.8098, "clearances": 6.1491, "aerial_won": 3.4598, "total_shots": 0.7216, "rating": 6.8439, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 0.4027, "fouls": 0.5427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0753, "blocks": 0.7699, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0.1089, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0588, "ball_carries": 13.9745, "total_progression": 40.1915, "progressive_carries": 0.1019, "key_pass": 0.1111, "shots_off_target": 0.5209 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0773, "tackles": 1.4048, "tackles_won": 0.8098, "clearances": 6.1491, "aerial_won": 3.4598, "total_shots": 0.7216, "rating": 6.8439, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 0.4027, "fouls": 0.5427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0753, "blocks": 0.7699, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0.1089, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0588, "ball_carries": 13.9745, "total_progression": 40.1915, "progressive_carries": 0.1019, "key_pass": 0.1111, "shots_off_target": 0.5209, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Loum Tchaouna", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Loum Tchaouna", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0773, "tackles": 1.4048, "tackles_won": 0.8098, "clearances": 6.1491, "aerial_won": 3.4598, "total_shots": 0.7216, "rating": 6.8439, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 0.4027, "fouls": 0.5427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0753, "blocks": 0.7699, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0588, "ball_carries": 13.9745, "total_progression": 40.1915, "progressive_carries": 0.1019, "key_pass": 0.1111, "shots_off_target": 0.5209, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Loum Tchaouna", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.77 (squad xG sum 1.1362, xG scale 1.5561, xA scale 1.7084, team xA 1.15 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0773, "tackles": 1.4048, "tackles_won": 0.8098, "clearances": 6.1491, "aerial_won": 3.4598, "total_shots": 0.7216, "rating": 6.8439, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 0.4027, "fouls": 0.5427, "fouls_drawn": 0.0753, "blocks": 0.7699, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1061, "expected_assists": 0.0663, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0915, "ball_carries": 13.9745, "total_progression": 40.1915, "progressive_carries": 0.1019, "key_pass": 0.1111, "shots_off_target": 0.5209, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Loum Tchaouna", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.768, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1362, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6727, "team_expected_assists": 1.1492, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5561, "xa_scale": 1.7084, "opponent_lambda": 1.013, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0682, "after": 0.1061 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0388, "after": 0.0663 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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3145, "fifa_rank": 1771.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0773, "tackles": 1.4048, "tackles_won": 0.8098, "clearances": 6.1491, "aerial_won": 3.4598, "total_shots": 0.7216, "rating": 6.8439, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.404, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7408, "crosses_total": 0.0031, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9135, "possession_lost": 7.0338, "dispossessed": 0.3373, "duels_lost": 3.5156, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.4522, "won_contest": 0.2119, "ball_recovery": 3.2266, "challenges_lost": 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true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1007, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "scorer_weight": 0.0849, "squad_weight_total": 1.8025, "weight_share": 0.0471, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.7045, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7045, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3175 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0773, "tackles": 1.4048, "tackles_won": 0.8098, "clearances": 6.1491, "aerial_won": 3.4598, "total_shots": 0.7216, "rating": 6.8439, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 44.0365, "accurate_pass": 38.1448, "duels_won": 6.2159, "total_long_balls": 4.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2572, "total_own_half_passes": 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true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 178, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2751, "assist_rate": 0.1345, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2925, "goal_rate": 0.2083, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.1758, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 12.491, "dispossessed": 2.0066, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2897, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 90, "progressive_carries": 3, 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minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0101, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9391, "expected_assists": 0.1612, "assists": 0.1358, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "expected_goals": 0.1775, "goals": 0.1938, "goal_rate": 0.1938, "shots_on_target": 0.6687, "total_shots": 1.9854, "rating": 7.1758, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 37.5251, "accurate_pass": 32.381, "duels_won": 4.5761, "total_long_balls": 2.6639, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2402, "total_own_half_passes": 11.068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.173, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.457, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.208, "crosses_total": 3.6665, "crosses_accurate": 0.644, "touches": 56.5687, "possession_lost": 12.491, "dispossessed": 2.0066, "duels_lost": 4.6237, "aerial_won": 0.4462, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.2851, "tackles_won": 0.6698, "tackles": 1.3922, "clearances": 1.1121, "total_contest": 1.7293, "won_contest": 0.8825, "challenges_lost": 0.7248, "fouls": 0.6008, "fouls_drawn": 1.861, "blocks": 0.2761, "big_chances_created": 0.4852, "big_chances_missed": 0.2224, "xgot": 0.1758, "ball_carries": 19.0936, "total_progression": 89.9108, "progressive_carries": 3.2397, "shots_off_target": 1.3167 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0101, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9391, "expected_assists": 0.1612, "assists": 0.1345, "assist_rate": 0.1345, "expected_goals": 0.1775, "goals": 0.1967, "goal_rate": 0.1967, "shots_on_target": 0.6719, "total_shots": 1.9901, "rating": 7.1758, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 37.5251, "accurate_pass": 32.381, "duels_won": 4.5761, "total_long_balls": 2.6639, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2402, "total_own_half_passes": 11.068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.173, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.457, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.208, "crosses_total": 3.674, "crosses_accurate": 0.644, "touches": 56.5687, "possession_lost": 12.491, "dispossessed": 2.0066, "duels_lost": 4.6237, "aerial_won": 0.4462, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.2823, "tackles_won": 0.6777, "tackles": 1.3922, "clearances": 1.1121, "total_contest": 1.7293, "won_contest": 0.8825, "challenges_lost": 0.7248, "fouls": 0.5997, "fouls_drawn": 1.8572, "blocks": 0.2761, "big_chances_created": 0.4852, "big_chances_missed": 0.2224, "xgot": 0.1758, "ball_carries": 19.0936, "total_progression": 89.9108, "progressive_carries": 3.2397, "shots_off_target": 1.3167 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.983, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", 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1.1121, "total_contest": 1.7293, "won_contest": 0.8825, "challenges_lost": 0.7248, "fouls": 0.5997, "fouls_drawn": 1.8572, "blocks": 0.2761, "big_chances_created": 0.4852, "big_chances_missed": 0.2224, "xgot": 0.1758, "ball_carries": 19.0936, "total_progression": 89.9108, "progressive_carries": 3.2397, "shots_off_target": 1.3167 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9391, "expected_assists": 0.1612, "assists": 0.1345, "assist_rate": 0.1345, "expected_goals": 0.188, "goals": 0.2083, "goal_rate": 0.2083, "shots_on_target": 0.7115, "total_shots": 2.1073, "rating": 7.1758, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 37.5251, "accurate_pass": 32.381, "duels_won": 4.5761, "total_long_balls": 2.6639, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2402, "total_own_half_passes": 11.068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.173, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.457, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.208, "crosses_total": 3.674, "crosses_accurate": 0.644, "touches": 56.5687, "possession_lost": 12.491, "dispossessed": 2.0066, "duels_lost": 4.6237, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.2823, "tackles_won": 0.6777, "tackles": 1.3922, "clearances": 1.1121, "total_contest": 1.7293, "won_contest": 0.8825, "challenges_lost": 0.7248, "fouls": 0.5997, "fouls_drawn": 1.8572, "blocks": 0.2761, "big_chances_created": 0.4852, "big_chances_missed": 0.2355, "xgot": 0.1862, "ball_carries": 19.0936, "total_progression": 89.9108, "progressive_carries": 3.2397, "shots_off_target": 1.3943, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0589, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.52, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Milan van Ewijk", "opponent_faced": "Milan van Ewijk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Milan van Ewijk", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.52, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0589, "skill_edge": 0.028, "height_edge": 0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.8002, "defender_skill": 0.7379, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Milan van Ewijk", "market_value": 23000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.7379 } ], "xg_override": 0.188 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4462, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9901, "after": 2.1073 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3167, "after": 1.3943 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6719, "after": 0.7115 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2224, "after": 0.2355 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1967, "after": 0.2083 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1775, "after": 0.188 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1758, "after": 0.1862 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9391, "expected_assists": 0.1612, "assist_rate": 0.1345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.188, "goal_rate": 0.2083, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7115, "total_shots": 2.1073, "rating": 7.1758, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 37.5251, "accurate_pass": 32.381, "duels_won": 4.5761, "total_long_balls": 2.6639, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2402, "total_own_half_passes": 11.068, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.173, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.457, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.208, "crosses_total": 3.674, "crosses_accurate": 0.644, "touches": 56.5687, "possession_lost": 12.491, "dispossessed": 2.0066, 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"squad_xa_sum": 0.6727, "team_expected_assists": 1.1492, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5561, "xa_scale": 1.7084, "opponent_lambda": 1.013, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.188, "after": 0.2925 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1612, "after": 0.2751 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0237, "total": 6.8497, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033497 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.012874 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012632 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009476 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008267 } ], "others_margin": -0.023652 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0127, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8552, "expected_assists": 0.0778, "assists": 0.0687, "assist_rate": 0.0687, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "shots_on_target": 0.2999, "total_shots": 0.9722, "rating": 6.8498, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 30.3848, "accurate_pass": 25.6407, "duels_won": 4.409, "total_long_balls": 1.8321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9262, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4971, "crosses_total": 0.1861, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2556, "possession_lost": 8.7707, "dispossessed": 1.0918, "duels_lost": 4.1449, "aerial_won": 0.5232, "aerial_lost": 1.0277, "interceptions": 0.7179, "tackles_won": 0.9569, "tackles": 2.0139, "clearances": 1.7544, "total_contest": 1.1892, "won_contest": 0.7828, "challenges_lost": 0.6649, "fouls": 0.9541, "fouls_drawn": 1.0892, "blocks": 0.5775, "big_chances_created": 0.172, "big_chances_missed": 0.3388, "xgot": 0.0074, "ball_carries": 14.8939, "total_progression": 38.4897, "progressive_carries": 1.0066, "shots_off_target": 0.6722 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0127, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0158)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8552, "expected_assists": 0.0778, "assists": 0.0754, "assist_rate": 0.0754, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.0692, "goal_rate": 0.0692, "shots_on_target": 0.2952, "total_shots": 0.9568, "rating": 6.8498, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 30.3848, "accurate_pass": 25.6407, "duels_won": 4.409, "total_long_balls": 1.8321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9262, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4971, "crosses_total": 0.191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2556, "possession_lost": 8.7707, "dispossessed": 1.0918, "duels_lost": 4.1449, "aerial_won": 0.5232, "aerial_lost": 1.0277, "interceptions": 0.7379, "tackles_won": 0.9652, "tackles": 2.0139, "clearances": 1.7544, "total_contest": 1.1892, "won_contest": 0.7828, "challenges_lost": 0.6649, "fouls": 0.9781, "fouls_drawn": 1.0876, "blocks": 0.5775, "big_chances_created": 0.172, "big_chances_missed": 0.3388, "xgot": 0.0074, "ball_carries": 14.8939, "total_progression": 38.4897, "progressive_carries": 1.0066, "shots_off_target": 0.6722 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0158, "history_matches": 21, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9396, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9541, "after": 0.9781 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7179, "after": 0.7379 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9722, "after": 0.9568 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9569, "after": 0.9652 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.0687, "after": 0.0754 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8552, "expected_assists": 0.0778, "assists": 0.0754, "assist_rate": 0.0754, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.0692, "goal_rate": 0.0692, "shots_on_target": 0.2952, "total_shots": 0.9674, "rating": 6.8498, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 30.3848, "accurate_pass": 25.6407, "duels_won": 4.409, "total_long_balls": 1.8321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9262, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4971, "crosses_total": 0.191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2556, "possession_lost": 8.7707, "dispossessed": 1.0918, "duels_lost": 4.1449, "aerial_won": 0.5232, "aerial_lost": 1.0277, "interceptions": 0.7379, "tackles_won": 0.9652, "tackles": 2.0139, "clearances": 1.7544, "total_contest": 1.1892, "won_contest": 0.7828, "challenges_lost": 0.6649, "fouls": 0.9781, "fouls_drawn": 1.0876, "blocks": 0.5775, "big_chances_created": 0.172, "big_chances_missed": 0.3388, "xgot": 0.0074, "ball_carries": 14.8939, "total_progression": 38.4897, "progressive_carries": 1.0066, "shots_off_target": 0.6722 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8552, "expected_assists": 0.0778, "assists": 0.0754, "assist_rate": 0.0754, "expected_goals": 0.0853, "goals": 0.0735, "goal_rate": 0.0735, "shots_on_target": 0.3134, "total_shots": 1.0269, "rating": 6.8498, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 30.3848, "accurate_pass": 25.6407, "duels_won": 4.409, "total_long_balls": 1.8321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9262, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4971, "crosses_total": 0.191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2556, "possession_lost": 8.7707, "dispossessed": 1.0918, "duels_lost": 4.1449, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.0277, "interceptions": 0.7379, "tackles_won": 0.9652, "tackles": 2.0139, "clearances": 1.7544, "total_contest": 1.1892, "won_contest": 0.7828, "challenges_lost": 0.6649, "fouls": 0.9781, "fouls_drawn": 1.0876, "blocks": 0.5775, "big_chances_created": 0.172, "big_chances_missed": 0.3596, "xgot": 0.0079, "ball_carries": 14.8939, "total_progression": 38.4897, "progressive_carries": 1.0066, "shots_off_target": 0.7135, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0615, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "opponent_faced": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0615, "skill_edge": 0.0299, "height_edge": 0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.761, "defender_skill": 0.6946, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "market_value": 23000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.6946 } ], "xg_override": 0.0853 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5232, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9674, "after": 1.0269 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6722, "after": 0.7135 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", 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"description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.77 (squad xG sum 1.1362, xG scale 1.5561, xA scale 1.7084, team xA 1.15 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8552, "expected_assists": 0.1329, "assist_rate": 0.0754, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1327, "goal_rate": 0.0735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3134, "total_shots": 1.0269, "rating": 6.8498, "minutes": 84.56, "total_pass": 30.3848, "accurate_pass": 25.6407, "duels_won": 4.409, "total_long_balls": 1.8321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9262, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1312, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2536, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4971, "crosses_total": 0.191, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.2556, "possession_lost": 8.7707, "dispossessed": 1.0918, "duels_lost": 4.1449, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.0277, "interceptions": 0.7379, "tackles_won": 0.9652, "tackles": 2.0139, "clearances": 1.7544, "total_contest": 1.1892, "won_contest": 0.7828, "challenges_lost": 0.6649, "fouls": 0.9781, "fouls_drawn": 1.0876, "blocks": 0.5775, "big_chances_created": 0.172, "big_chances_missed": 0.3596, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 14.8939, "total_progression": 38.4897, "progressive_carries": 1.0066, "shots_off_target": 0.7135, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0615, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "opponent_faced": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9128, "creation_factor": 0.9812 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.768, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1362, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6727, "team_expected_assists": 1.1492, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5561, "xa_scale": 1.7084, "opponent_lambda": 1.013, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0853, "after": 0.1327 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0778, "after": 0.1329 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2713 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0707 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0654 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0475 } ], "others": 0.0384, "total": 0.7048, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.27128 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136449 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.070733 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.065445 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.047475 } ], "others_margin": 0.038299 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.740550518035889, "model_output": 6.7406, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", 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"volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.6946 }, { "player": "Frank Onyeka", "market_value": 7700000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.5113 } ], "xg_override": 0.0446 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1547, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7011, "after": 0.6464 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5157, "after": 0.4755 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1854, "after": 0.1709 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4707, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "assist_rate": 0.047, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1709, "total_shots": 0.6464, "rating": 6.7406, "minutes": 72.33, "total_pass": 10.9407, "accurate_pass": 8.9847, "duels_won": 0.6778, "total_long_balls": 0.6712, 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"step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4401, "goal_rate": 0.454, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.2308, "total_shots": 2.7543, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "key_pass": 0.5839, "rating": 6.8078, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 13.4214, "accurate_pass": 9.2094, "duels_won": 7.154, "total_long_balls": 0.0938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0082, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0934, "crosses_total": 0.1764, "crosses_accurate": 0.0646, "touches": 29.1833, "possession_lost": 10.1851, "dispossessed": 1.4407, "duels_lost": 8.1294, "aerial_lost": 5.2519, "total_contest": 1.0302, "won_contest": 0.6303, "ball_recovery": 1.1753, "challenges_lost": 0.2789, "fouls": 0.8932, "fouls_drawn": 1.193, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.245, "tackles_won": 0.2503, 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.66, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Christian Bracco", "ranking": 2119 }, { "player_name": "Park Su-been", "ranking": 2120 }, { "player_name": "Edvinas Girdvainis", "ranking": 2121 }, { "player_name": "Son Seung-Min", "ranking": 2122 }, { "player_name": "Diogo Dalot", "ranking": 2123 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Crysencio Summerville", "ranking": 2125 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Jesus", "ranking": 2126 }, { "player_name": "Sepp van den Berg", "ranking": 2127 }, { "player_name": "Chan-hyung Lee", "ranking": 2128 }, { "player_name": "Sarvar Abduhamidov", "ranking": 2129 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.562, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", 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{ "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": 0.042813 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.040573 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.026571 } ], "others_margin": -0.122574 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.197538822889328, "model_output": 0.1975, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2104 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0696 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0406, "total": 0.1975, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.210357 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.069555 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013264 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012792 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.010791 } ], "others_margin": -0.040644 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.660040855407715, "model_output": 6.66, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0514 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.05, "total": 6.66, 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"progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3944 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2356 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0536 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0394 } ], "others": 0.0182, "total": 0.3467, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.394418 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.235576 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053593 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040628 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.039359 } ], "others_margin": 0.018179 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.699150562286377, "model_output": 6.6992, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.097 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 6.6991, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.096953 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034954 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02946 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.016466 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011673 } ], "others_margin": -0.025027 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0309, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3321, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0571, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "expected_goals": 0.0229, "goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "shots_on_target": 0.1517, "total_shots": 0.3575, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 15.85, "total_pass": 13.2906, "accurate_pass": 12.2881, "duels_won": 0.1296, "total_long_balls": 0.3635, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1525, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2831, "crosses_total": 0.9388, "crosses_accurate": 0.1296, "touches": 16.7047, "possession_lost": 2.862, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 1.5687, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1102, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.1525, "total_contest": 0.2482, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.4007, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1102, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 4.6219, "total_progression": 19.0572, "progressive_carries": 0.4702, "shots_off_target": 0.2058 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 35000000, "quality_factor": 0.752, "boost_factor": 1.0309, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0217)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3321, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0559, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "expected_goals": 0.0229, "goals": 0.0302, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "shots_on_target": 0.1484, "total_shots": 0.353, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 15.85, "total_pass": 13.2906, "accurate_pass": 12.2881, "duels_won": 0.1296, "total_long_balls": 0.3635, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1525, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2831, "crosses_total": 0.9312, "crosses_accurate": 0.1296, "touches": 16.7047, "possession_lost": 2.862, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 1.5687, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.111, "tackles_won": 0.0032, "tackles": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.1525, "total_contest": 0.2482, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.3952, "fouls_drawn": 0.0095, "blocks": 0.1102, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 4.6219, "total_progression": 19.0572, "progressive_carries": 0.4702, "shots_off_target": 0.2058 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0217, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1761, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0095 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9388, "after": 0.9312 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4007, "after": 0.3952 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.8 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assists": 0.0838, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0284, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 15.85, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assists": 0.0838, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0284, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0284, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.649, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.77 (squad xG sum 1.1362, xG scale 1.5561, xA scale 1.7084, team xA 1.15 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0232, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.649, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1305, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.768, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1362, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6727, "team_expected_assists": 1.1492, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5561, "xa_scale": 1.7084, "opponent_lambda": 1.013, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0343, "after": 0.028 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0528, "after": 0.0474 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0232, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.649, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1305, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2871, "fifa_rank": 1429.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0232, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.649, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0273, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1305, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0273, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "scorer_weight": 0.0317, "squad_weight_total": 1.8025, 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"creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0106, "total": 0.0598, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.496713 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.113429 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.082402 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.068521 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.06313 } ], "others_margin": -0.162409 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.27511513233184814, "model_output": 0.2751, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0965 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0044, "total": 0.2751, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.361576 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.148305 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.08545 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.070911 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.067209 } ], "others_margin": 0.016121 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.868581235408783, "model_output": 0.8686, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4332 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0679 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0599 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0576 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0514 } ], "others": 0.0801, "total": 0.8686, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.433236 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.067851 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.059879 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.0576 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.051442 } ], "others_margin": 0.080109 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6460957527160645, "model_output": 6.6461, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0836 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0538 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0464 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0528, "total": 6.6461, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.083568 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.053811 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.046411 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.012686 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012618 } ], "others_margin": -0.052823 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2709, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assists": 0.0448, "assist_rate": 0.0448, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goals": 0.06, "goal_rate": 0.06, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.8717, "rating": 6.6461, "minutes": 13.69, "total_pass": 6.8657, "accurate_pass": 5.4539, "duels_won": 0.9559, "total_long_balls": 0.5544, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2886, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5914, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8624, "crosses_total": 0.1832, "crosses_accurate": 0.1568, "touches": 10.1934, "possession_lost": 2.2886, "dispossessed": 0.1092, "duels_lost": 1.3184, "aerial_won": 0.1199, "aerial_lost": 0.2457, "interceptions": 0.0737, "tackles_won": 0.3054, "tackles": 0.3255, "clearances": 0.111, 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"total_own_half_passes": 1.7476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5914, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8624, "crosses_total": 0.1831, "crosses_accurate": 0.1568, "touches": 10.1934, "possession_lost": 2.2886, "dispossessed": 0.1092, "duels_lost": 1.3184, "aerial_won": 0.1199, "aerial_lost": 0.2457, "interceptions": 0.0736, "tackles_won": 0.3063, "tackles": 0.3255, "clearances": 0.111, "total_contest": 0.4469, "won_contest": 0.1754, "challenges_lost": 0.3673, "fouls": 0.3257, "fouls_drawn": 0.3348, "blocks": 0.1019, "big_chances_created": 0.0368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0166, "xgot": 0.0079, "ball_carries": 3.1876, "total_progression": 16.0195, "progressive_carries": 0.3924, "shots_off_target": 0.5956 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0008, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1521, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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0.0877, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "big_chances_missed": 0.0143, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 2.7429, "total_progression": 13.7845, "progressive_carries": 0.3377, "shots_off_target": 0.5125, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 11.78, "projection_minutes": 13.69, "minutes_scale": 0.8605, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2331, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "assists": 0.0385, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "shots_on_target": 0.2389, "total_shots": 0.7525, "rating": 6.6461, "minutes": 11.78, "total_pass": 5.9078, "accurate_pass": 4.693, "duels_won": 0.8225, "total_long_balls": 0.4771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2483, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3694, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.404, 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"stats": { "key_pass": 0.2331, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2389, "total_shots": 0.7525, "rating": 6.6461, "minutes": 11.78, "total_pass": 5.9078, "accurate_pass": 4.693, "duels_won": 0.8225, "total_long_balls": 0.4771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2483, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3694, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.404, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3235, "crosses_total": 0.1576, "crosses_accurate": 0.1349, "touches": 8.7712, "possession_lost": 1.9693, "dispossessed": 0.1092, "duels_lost": 1.1345, "aerial_won": 0.1032, "aerial_lost": 0.2457, "interceptions": 0.0633, "tackles_won": 0.2636, "tackles": 0.2801, "clearances": 0.0955, "total_contest": 0.3845, "won_contest": 0.1509, "challenges_lost": 0.3673, "fouls": 0.2803, "fouls_drawn": 0.2881, "blocks": 0.0877, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "big_chances_missed": 0.0143, "xgot": 0.0068, 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0, "shots_on_target": 0.2389, "total_shots": 0.7525, "rating": 6.6461, "minutes": 11.78, "total_pass": 5.9078, "accurate_pass": 4.693, "duels_won": 0.8225, "total_long_balls": 0.4771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2483, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3694, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.404, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3235, "crosses_total": 0.1576, "crosses_accurate": 0.1349, "touches": 8.7712, "possession_lost": 1.9693, "dispossessed": 0.1092, "duels_lost": 1.1345, "aerial_won": 0.1032, "aerial_lost": 0.2457, "interceptions": 0.0633, "tackles_won": 0.2636, "tackles": 0.2801, "clearances": 0.0955, "total_contest": 0.3845, "won_contest": 0.1509, "challenges_lost": 0.3673, "fouls": 0.2803, "fouls_drawn": 0.2881, "blocks": 0.0877, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "big_chances_missed": 0.0143, "xgot": 0.0074, "ball_carries": 2.7429, "total_progression": 13.7845, "progressive_carries": 0.3377, "shots_off_target": 0.5125, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.649, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.001, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.768, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1362, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6727, "team_expected_assists": 1.1492, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5561, "xa_scale": 1.7084, "opponent_lambda": 1.013, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2331, "expected_assists": 0.0217, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0563, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2389, "total_shots": 0.7525, "rating": 6.6461, "minutes": 11.78, "total_pass": 5.9078, "accurate_pass": 4.693, "duels_won": 0.8225, "total_long_balls": 0.4771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2483, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3694, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.404, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3235, "crosses_total": 0.1576, "crosses_accurate": 0.1349, "touches": 8.7712, "possession_lost": 1.9693, "dispossessed": 0.1092, "duels_lost": 1.1345, "aerial_won": 0.1032, "aerial_lost": 0.2457, "interceptions": 0.0633, "tackles_won": 0.2636, "tackles": 0.2801, "clearances": 0.0955, "total_contest": 0.3845, "won_contest": 0.1509, "challenges_lost": 0.3673, "fouls": 0.2803, "fouls_drawn": 0.2881, "blocks": 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{ "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.241 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0416, "total": 0.3317, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.428401 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07429 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046007 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.03537 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.032702 } ], "others_margin": -0.118309 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.597079277038574, "model_output": 6.5971, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0528 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0438 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0451, "total": 6.5971, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.052806 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043792 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014762 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01007 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009599 } ], "others_margin": -0.045225 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.072, "goals": 0.0745, "goal_rate": 0.0745, "shots_on_target": 0.2018, "total_shots": 0.5596, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.3336, "rating": 6.5971, "minutes": 21.59, "total_pass": 3.7675, "accurate_pass": 2.3452, "duels_won": 0.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.6766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3768, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.403, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.145, "crosses_total": 0.3045, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 7.2024, "possession_lost": 2.0721, "dispossessed": 0.1355, "duels_lost": 1.1177, "aerial_lost": 0.3487, "total_contest": 0.1743, "won_contest": 0.0707, "ball_recovery": 0.7278, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.3487, "fouls_drawn": 0.1854, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0101, "tackles_won": 0.1076, 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0.1415, "touches": 7.2024, "possession_lost": 2.0721, "dispossessed": 0.1355, "duels_lost": 1.1177, "aerial_lost": 0.3487, "total_contest": 0.1743, "won_contest": 0.0707, "ball_recovery": 0.7278, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.3503, "fouls_drawn": 0.1862, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0101, "tackles_won": 0.1074, "tackles": 0.3411, "clearances": 0.4914, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.176, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2752, "ball_carries": 1.4214, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1346, "shots_off_target": 0.3578 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0018, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2399, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.6 to 21.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0725, "goals": 0.0749, 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"bench_appearance_probability": 0.74, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.74, "projection_minutes": 21.59, "minutes_scale": 1.0069, "appearance_probability": 0.74 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0725, "goals": 0.0749, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "shots_on_target": 0.2028, "total_shots": 0.5631, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3359, "rating": 6.5971, "minutes": 21.74, "total_pass": 3.7937, "accurate_pass": 2.3615, "duels_won": 0.6814, "total_long_balls": 0.6813, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3794, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.153, "crosses_total": 0.306, "crosses_accurate": 0.1425, "touches": 7.2524, "possession_lost": 2.0865, "dispossessed": 0.1355, "duels_lost": 1.1255, "aerial_lost": 0.3487, "total_contest": 0.1755, "won_contest": 0.0712, "ball_recovery": 0.7329, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.3527, 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"projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.77 (squad xG sum 1.1362, xG scale 1.5561, xA scale 1.7084, team xA 1.15 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2028, "total_shots": 0.5631, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.3359, "rating": 6.5971, "minutes": 21.74, "total_pass": 3.7937, "accurate_pass": 2.3615, "duels_won": 0.6814, "total_long_balls": 0.6813, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3794, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.153, "crosses_total": 0.306, "crosses_accurate": 0.1425, "touches": 7.2524, 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"finishing_factor": 1.0196, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.768, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1362, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6727, "team_expected_assists": 1.1492, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5561, "xa_scale": 1.7084, "opponent_lambda": 1.013, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.74 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0725, "after": 0.0835 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.026, "after": 0.0329 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2907 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0445 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0289 } ], "others": -0.0288, "total": 0.5193, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.545296 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.105254 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.084925 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.068156 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.054243 } ], "others_margin": -0.053931 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.739781856536865, "model_output": 6.7398, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": 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"importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.241 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0416, "total": 0.3317, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.428401 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07429 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046007 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.03537 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.032702 } ], "others_margin": -0.118309 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.597079277038574, "model_output": 6.5971, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0528 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0438 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0451, "total": 6.5971, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.052806 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043792 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014762 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01007 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009599 } ], "others_margin": -0.045225 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.072, "goals": 0.0745, "goal_rate": 0.0745, "shots_on_target": 0.2018, "total_shots": 0.5596, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.3336, "rating": 6.5971, "minutes": 21.59, "total_pass": 3.7675, "accurate_pass": 2.3452, "duels_won": 0.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.6766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3768, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.403, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.145, "crosses_total": 0.3045, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 7.2024, "possession_lost": 2.0721, "dispossessed": 0.1355, "duels_lost": 1.1177, "aerial_lost": 0.3487, "total_contest": 0.1743, "won_contest": 0.0707, "ball_recovery": 0.7278, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.3487, "fouls_drawn": 0.1854, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0101, "tackles_won": 0.1076, "tackles": 0.3411, "clearances": 0.4914, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.176, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2746, "ball_carries": 1.4214, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1346, "shots_off_target": 0.3578 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0018)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.072, "goals": 0.0744, "goal_rate": 0.0744, "shots_on_target": 0.2014, "total_shots": 0.5586, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.3336, "rating": 6.5971, "minutes": 21.59, "total_pass": 3.7675, "accurate_pass": 2.3452, "duels_won": 0.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.6766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3768, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.403, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.145, "crosses_total": 0.3039, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 7.2024, "possession_lost": 2.0721, "dispossessed": 0.1355, "duels_lost": 1.1177, "aerial_lost": 0.3487, "total_contest": 0.1743, "won_contest": 0.0707, "ball_recovery": 0.7278, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.3503, "fouls_drawn": 0.1862, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0101, "tackles_won": 0.1074, "tackles": 0.3411, "clearances": 0.4914, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.176, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2752, "ball_carries": 1.4214, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1346, "shots_off_target": 0.3578 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0018, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2399, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.6 to 21.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0725, "goals": 0.0749, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "shots_on_target": 0.2028, "total_shots": 0.5631, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3359, "rating": 6.5971, "minutes": 21.74, "total_pass": 3.7937, "accurate_pass": 2.3615, "duels_won": 0.6814, "total_long_balls": 0.6813, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3794, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.153, "crosses_total": 0.306, "crosses_accurate": 0.1425, "touches": 7.2524, "possession_lost": 2.0865, "dispossessed": 0.1355, "duels_lost": 1.1255, "aerial_lost": 0.3487, "total_contest": 0.1755, "won_contest": 0.0712, "ball_recovery": 0.7329, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.3527, "fouls_drawn": 0.1875, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0102, "tackles_won": 0.1081, "tackles": 0.3435, "clearances": 0.4948, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1772, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2752, "ball_carries": 1.4313, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1355, "shots_off_target": 0.3603, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.74, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.74, "projection_minutes": 21.59, "minutes_scale": 1.0069, "appearance_probability": 0.74 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0725, "goals": 0.0749, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "shots_on_target": 0.2028, "total_shots": 0.5631, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3359, "rating": 6.5971, "minutes": 21.74, "total_pass": 3.7937, "accurate_pass": 2.3615, "duels_won": 0.6814, "total_long_balls": 0.6813, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3794, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.153, "crosses_total": 0.306, "crosses_accurate": 0.1425, "touches": 7.2524, "possession_lost": 2.0865, "dispossessed": 0.1355, "duels_lost": 1.1255, "aerial_lost": 0.3487, "total_contest": 0.1755, "won_contest": 0.0712, "ball_recovery": 0.7329, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.3527, "fouls_drawn": 0.1875, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0102, "tackles_won": 0.1081, "tackles": 0.3435, "clearances": 0.4948, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1772, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2752, "ball_carries": 1.4313, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1355, "shots_off_target": 0.3603, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.74, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0725, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2028, "total_shots": 0.5631, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3359, "rating": 6.5971, "minutes": 21.74, "total_pass": 3.7937, "accurate_pass": 2.3615, "duels_won": 0.6814, "total_long_balls": 0.6813, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3794, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.153, "crosses_total": 0.306, "crosses_accurate": 0.1425, "touches": 7.2524, "possession_lost": 2.0865, "dispossessed": 0.1355, "duels_lost": 1.1255, "aerial_lost": 0.3487, "total_contest": 0.1755, "won_contest": 0.0712, "ball_recovery": 0.7329, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.3527, "fouls_drawn": 0.1875, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0102, "tackles_won": 0.1081, "tackles": 0.3435, "clearances": 0.4948, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1772, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2752, "ball_carries": 1.4313, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1355, "shots_off_target": 0.3603, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.74, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.649, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.77 (squad xG sum 1.1362, xG scale 1.5561, xA scale 1.7084, team xA 1.15 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2028, "total_shots": 0.5631, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.3359, "rating": 6.5971, "minutes": 21.74, "total_pass": 3.7937, "accurate_pass": 2.3615, "duels_won": 0.6814, "total_long_balls": 0.6813, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3794, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.153, "crosses_total": 0.306, "crosses_accurate": 0.1425, "touches": 7.2524, "possession_lost": 2.0865, "dispossessed": 0.1355, "duels_lost": 1.1255, "aerial_lost": 0.3487, "total_contest": 0.1755, "won_contest": 0.0712, "ball_recovery": 0.7329, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.3527, "fouls_drawn": 0.1875, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0102, "tackles_won": 0.1081, "tackles": 0.3435, "clearances": 0.4948, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1772, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2752, "ball_carries": 1.4313, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1355, "shots_off_target": 0.3603, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.74, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.649, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0196, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.768, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1362, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6727, "team_expected_assists": 1.1492, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5561, "xa_scale": 1.7084, "opponent_lambda": 1.013, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.74 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0725, "after": 0.0835 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.026, "after": 0.0329 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2028, "total_shots": 0.5631, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.3359, "rating": 6.5971, "minutes": 21.74, "total_pass": 3.7937, "accurate_pass": 2.3615, "duels_won": 0.6814, "total_long_balls": 0.6813, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3794, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.153, "crosses_total": 0.306, "crosses_accurate": 0.1425, "touches": 7.2524, "possession_lost": 2.0865, "dispossessed": 0.1355, "duels_lost": 1.1255, "aerial_lost": 0.3487, "total_contest": 0.1755, "won_contest": 0.0712, "ball_recovery": 0.7329, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.3527, "fouls_drawn": 0.1875, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0102, "tackles_won": 0.1081, "tackles": 0.3435, "clearances": 0.4948, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1772, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2752, "ball_carries": 1.4313, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1355, "shots_off_target": 0.3603, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.74, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.649, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0196, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2013, "fifa_rank": 1110.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2028, "total_shots": 0.5631, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.3359, "rating": 6.5971, "minutes": 21.74, "total_pass": 3.7937, "accurate_pass": 2.3615, "duels_won": 0.6814, "total_long_balls": 0.6813, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3794, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.153, "crosses_total": 0.306, "crosses_accurate": 0.1425, "touches": 7.2524, "possession_lost": 2.0865, "dispossessed": 0.1355, "duels_lost": 1.1255, "aerial_lost": 0.3487, "total_contest": 0.1755, "won_contest": 0.0712, "ball_recovery": 0.7329, "challenges_lost": 0.1812, "fouls": 0.3527, "fouls_drawn": 0.1875, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0102, "tackles_won": 0.1081, "tackles": 0.3435, "clearances": 0.4948, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1772, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2752, "ball_carries": 1.4313, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1355, "shots_off_target": 0.3603, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.74, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.649, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.079, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0196, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.079, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "scorer_weight": 0.0851, "squad_weight_total": 1.8025, "weight_share": 0.0472, "finishing_factor": 1.0196, "appearance_weight": 0.74, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 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0.0069 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0106, "total": 0.0598, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.496713 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.113429 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.082402 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.068521 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.06313 } ], "others_margin": -0.162409 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.27511513233184814, "model_output": 0.2751, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0965 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0044, "total": 0.2751, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.361576 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.148305 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.08545 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.070911 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.067209 } ], "others_margin": 0.016121 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.868581235408783, "model_output": 0.8686, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4332 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0679 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0599 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0576 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0514 } ], "others": 0.0801, "total": 0.8686, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.433236 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.067851 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.059879 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.0576 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.051442 } ], "others_margin": 0.080109 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6460957527160645, "model_output": 6.6461, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0836 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0538 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0464 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0528, "total": 6.6461, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.083568 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.053811 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.046411 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.012686 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012618 } ], "others_margin": -0.052823 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2709, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assists": 0.0448, "assist_rate": 0.0448, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goals": 0.06, "goal_rate": 0.06, "shots_on_target": 0.2761, "total_shots": 0.8717, "rating": 6.6461, "minutes": 13.69, "total_pass": 6.8657, "accurate_pass": 5.4539, "duels_won": 0.9559, "total_long_balls": 0.5544, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2886, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5914, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8624, "crosses_total": 0.1832, "crosses_accurate": 0.1568, "touches": 10.1934, "possession_lost": 2.2886, "dispossessed": 0.1092, "duels_lost": 1.3184, "aerial_won": 0.1199, "aerial_lost": 0.2457, "interceptions": 0.0737, "tackles_won": 0.3054, "tackles": 0.3255, "clearances": 0.111, "total_contest": 0.4469, "won_contest": 0.1754, "challenges_lost": 0.3673, "fouls": 0.3248, "fouls_drawn": 0.3351, "blocks": 0.1019, "big_chances_created": 0.0368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0166, "xgot": 0.0079, "ball_carries": 3.1876, "total_progression": 16.0195, "progressive_carries": 0.3924, "shots_off_target": 0.5956 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0036, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0008)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2709, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assists": 0.0448, "assist_rate": 0.0448, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goals": 0.06, "goal_rate": 0.06, "shots_on_target": 0.2776, "total_shots": 0.8745, "rating": 6.6461, "minutes": 13.69, "total_pass": 6.8657, "accurate_pass": 5.4539, "duels_won": 0.9559, "total_long_balls": 0.5544, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2886, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5914, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8624, "crosses_total": 0.1831, "crosses_accurate": 0.1568, "touches": 10.1934, "possession_lost": 2.2886, "dispossessed": 0.1092, "duels_lost": 1.3184, "aerial_won": 0.1199, "aerial_lost": 0.2457, "interceptions": 0.0736, "tackles_won": 0.3063, "tackles": 0.3255, "clearances": 0.111, "total_contest": 0.4469, "won_contest": 0.1754, "challenges_lost": 0.3673, "fouls": 0.3257, "fouls_drawn": 0.3348, "blocks": 0.1019, "big_chances_created": 0.0368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0166, "xgot": 0.0079, "ball_carries": 3.1876, "total_progression": 16.0195, "progressive_carries": 0.3924, "shots_off_target": 0.5956 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0008, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1521, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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0.0877, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "big_chances_missed": 0.0143, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 2.7429, "total_progression": 13.7845, "progressive_carries": 0.3377, "shots_off_target": 0.5125, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 11.78, "projection_minutes": 13.69, "minutes_scale": 0.8605, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2331, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "assists": 0.0385, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "shots_on_target": 0.2389, "total_shots": 0.7525, "rating": 6.6461, "minutes": 11.78, "total_pass": 5.9078, "accurate_pass": 4.693, "duels_won": 0.8225, "total_long_balls": 0.4771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2483, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3694, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.404, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3235, "crosses_total": 0.1576, "crosses_accurate": 0.1349, "touches": 8.7712, "possession_lost": 1.9693, "dispossessed": 0.1092, "duels_lost": 1.1345, "aerial_won": 0.1032, "aerial_lost": 0.2457, "interceptions": 0.0633, "tackles_won": 0.2636, "tackles": 0.2801, "clearances": 0.0955, "total_contest": 0.3845, "won_contest": 0.1509, "challenges_lost": 0.3673, "fouls": 0.2803, "fouls_drawn": 0.2881, "blocks": 0.0877, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "big_chances_missed": 0.0143, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 2.7429, "total_progression": 13.7845, "progressive_carries": 0.3377, "shots_off_target": 0.5125, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2331, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2389, "total_shots": 0.7525, "rating": 6.6461, "minutes": 11.78, "total_pass": 5.9078, "accurate_pass": 4.693, "duels_won": 0.8225, "total_long_balls": 0.4771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2483, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3694, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.404, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3235, "crosses_total": 0.1576, "crosses_accurate": 0.1349, "touches": 8.7712, "possession_lost": 1.9693, "dispossessed": 0.1092, "duels_lost": 1.1345, "aerial_won": 0.1032, "aerial_lost": 0.2457, "interceptions": 0.0633, "tackles_won": 0.2636, "tackles": 0.2801, "clearances": 0.0955, "total_contest": 0.3845, "won_contest": 0.1509, "challenges_lost": 0.3673, "fouls": 0.2803, "fouls_drawn": 0.2881, "blocks": 0.0877, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "big_chances_missed": 0.0143, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 2.7429, "total_progression": 13.7845, "progressive_carries": 0.3377, "shots_off_target": 0.5125, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.649, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.77 (squad xG sum 1.1362, xG scale 1.5561, xA scale 1.7084, team xA 1.15 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2331, "expected_assists": 0.0217, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0563, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2389, "total_shots": 0.7525, "rating": 6.6461, "minutes": 11.78, "total_pass": 5.9078, "accurate_pass": 4.693, "duels_won": 0.8225, "total_long_balls": 0.4771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2483, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3694, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.404, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3235, "crosses_total": 0.1576, "crosses_accurate": 0.1349, "touches": 8.7712, "possession_lost": 1.9693, "dispossessed": 0.1092, "duels_lost": 1.1345, "aerial_won": 0.1032, "aerial_lost": 0.2457, "interceptions": 0.0633, "tackles_won": 0.2636, "tackles": 0.2801, "clearances": 0.0955, "total_contest": 0.3845, "won_contest": 0.1509, "challenges_lost": 0.3673, "fouls": 0.2803, "fouls_drawn": 0.2881, "blocks": 0.0877, "big_chances_created": 0.0317, "big_chances_missed": 0.0143, "xgot": 0.0074, "ball_carries": 2.7429, "total_progression": 13.7845, "progressive_carries": 0.3377, "shots_off_target": 0.5125, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.649, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.001, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.768, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1362, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6727, "team_expected_assists": 1.1492, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5561, "xa_scale": 1.7084, "opponent_lambda": 1.013, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2331, "expected_assists": 0.0217, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0563, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2389, "total_shots": 0.7525, "rating": 6.6461, "minutes": 11.78, "total_pass": 5.9078, "accurate_pass": 4.693, "duels_won": 0.8225, "total_long_balls": 0.4771, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2483, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3694, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.404, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3235, "crosses_total": 0.1576, "crosses_accurate": 0.1349, "touches": 8.7712, "possession_lost": 1.9693, "dispossessed": 0.1092, "duels_lost": 1.1345, "aerial_won": 0.1032, "aerial_lost": 0.2457, "interceptions": 0.0633, "tackles_won": 0.2636, "tackles": 0.2801, "clearances": 0.0955, "total_contest": 0.3845, "won_contest": 0.1509, "challenges_lost": 0.3673, "fouls": 0.2803, "fouls_drawn": 0.2881, "blocks": 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"expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0394 } ], "others": 0.0182, "total": 0.3467, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.394418 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.235576 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053593 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040628 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.039359 } ], "others_margin": 0.018179 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.699150562286377, "model_output": 6.6992, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.097 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 6.6991, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.096953 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034954 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02946 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.016466 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011673 } ], "others_margin": -0.025027 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0309, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3321, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0571, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "expected_goals": 0.0229, "goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "shots_on_target": 0.1517, "total_shots": 0.3575, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 15.85, "total_pass": 13.2906, "accurate_pass": 12.2881, "duels_won": 0.1296, "total_long_balls": 0.3635, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1525, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2831, "crosses_total": 0.9388, "crosses_accurate": 0.1296, "touches": 16.7047, "possession_lost": 2.862, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 1.5687, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1102, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.1525, 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"total_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0051, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2831, "crosses_total": 0.9312, "crosses_accurate": 0.1296, "touches": 16.7047, "possession_lost": 2.862, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 1.5687, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.111, "tackles_won": 0.0032, "tackles": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.1525, "total_contest": 0.2482, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.3952, "fouls_drawn": 0.0095, "blocks": 0.1102, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 4.6219, "total_progression": 19.0572, "progressive_carries": 0.4702, "shots_off_target": 0.2058 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0217, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1761, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0095 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9388, "after": 0.9312 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4007, "after": 0.3952 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.8 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assists": 0.0838, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, 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"total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0284, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0284, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.649, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.77 (squad xG sum 1.1362, xG scale 1.5561, xA scale 1.7084, team xA 1.15 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4981, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.5313, "rating": 6.6992, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 19.9359, "accurate_pass": 18.4322, "duels_won": 0.1944, "total_long_balls": 0.5453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0076, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4246, "crosses_total": 1.3968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1944, "touches": 25.057, "possession_lost": 4.293, "dispossessed": 0.1296, "duels_lost": 2.3531, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1665, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.1944, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.3723, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7901, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 0.0142, "blocks": 0.1653, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0232, "ball_carries": 6.9329, "total_progression": 28.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.7053, "shots_off_target": 0.3087, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.649, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1305, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.768, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1362, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6727, "team_expected_assists": 1.1492, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5561, "xa_scale": 1.7084, "opponent_lambda": 1.013, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0343, "after": 0.028 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0528, "after": 0.0474 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.420331 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.159537 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.116587 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112668 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.042282 } ], "others_margin": -0.106802 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.35641002655029297, "model_output": 0.3564, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.084 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.062, "total": 0.3564, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.084018 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047806 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025729 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.014 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013057 } ], "others_margin": -0.061954 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.679426193237305, "model_output": 6.6794, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], "others": -0.0346, "total": 6.6794, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.023353 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019301 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016854 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.012959 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.0122 } ], "others_margin": -0.034687 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9144, "tackles": 1.5513, "tackles_won": 1.04, "clearances": 2.021, "aerial_won": 0.6607, "total_shots": 0.3578, "rating": 6.6794, "minutes": 89.7, "total_pass": 29.6627, "accurate_pass": 25.6211, "duels_won": 2.6397, "total_long_balls": 1.9305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9187, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6803, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.397, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2241, "crosses_total": 2.4823, "crosses_accurate": 0.8876, "touches": 45.2175, "possession_lost": 7.8881, "dispossessed": 0.2701, "duels_lost": 3.8121, "aerial_lost": 1.4397, "total_contest": 1.092, "won_contest": 0.7448, "ball_recovery": 2.2955, "challenges_lost": 0.9147, "fouls": 0.8403, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.5571, "goals": 0.1023, 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0.9144, "after": 0.9015 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8403, "after": 0.8297 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1651, "after": 0.1754 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9015, "tackles": 1.5513, "tackles_won": 1.0387, "clearances": 2.021, "aerial_won": 0.6607, "total_shots": 0.368, "rating": 6.6794, "minutes": 89.7, "total_pass": 29.6627, "accurate_pass": 25.6211, "duels_won": 2.6397, "total_long_balls": 1.9305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9187, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6803, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.397, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2241, "crosses_total": 2.4826, "crosses_accurate": 0.8876, "touches": 45.2175, "possession_lost": 7.8881, "dispossessed": 0.2701, "duels_lost": 3.8121, "aerial_lost": 1.4397, "total_contest": 1.092, "won_contest": 0.7448, "ball_recovery": 2.2955, "challenges_lost": 0.9147, "fouls": 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"team_expected_assists": 0.8104, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3463, "xa_scale": 1.1734, "opponent_lambda": 1.768, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0442, "after": 0.0595 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0747, "after": 0.0877 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0592 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0181 } ], "others": -0.0396, "total": 0.5201, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05916 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.032938 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.023426 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.018935 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018064 } ], "others_margin": -0.039698 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.783597946166992, "model_output": 6.7836, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": 0.0231, "total": 6.7836, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016496 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012545 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012445 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.010565 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.00752 } ], "others_margin": 0.023261 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 12, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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10.5596, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9085, "crosses_total": 0.2582, "crosses_accurate": 0.1791, "touches": 42.8646, "possession_lost": 6.0223, "dispossessed": 0.0414, "duels_lost": 3.2687, "aerial_lost": 2.3169, "total_contest": 0.1163, "won_contest": 0.0488, "ball_recovery": 2.2795, "challenges_lost": 0.7751, "fouls": 0.2463, "fouls_drawn": 0.3578, "blocks": 2.1757, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.0574, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.007, "ball_carries": 7.9782, "total_progression": 16.406, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4595 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0013, "history_matches": 12, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.984, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and 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{ "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0757, "tackles": 1.203, "tackles_won": 0.6854, "clearances": 6.1398, "aerial_won": 2.5768, "total_shots": 0.5169, "rating": 6.7836, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 26.9216, "accurate_pass": 21.9947, "duels_won": 3.8045, "total_long_balls": 4.139, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8006, "total_own_half_passes": 16.362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.0862, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5596, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9085, "crosses_total": 0.2582, "crosses_accurate": 0.1791, "touches": 42.8646, "possession_lost": 6.0223, "dispossessed": 0.0414, "duels_lost": 3.2687, "aerial_lost": 2.3169, "total_contest": 0.1163, "won_contest": 0.0488, "ball_recovery": 2.2795, "challenges_lost": 0.7751, "fouls": 0.2463, "fouls_drawn": 0.3578, "blocks": 2.1757, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.0574, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.007, "ball_carries": 7.9782, "total_progression": 16.406, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4595, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.01 (squad xG sum 0.7524, xG scale 1.3463, xA scale 1.1734, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0757, "tackles": 1.203, "tackles_won": 0.6854, "clearances": 6.1398, "aerial_won": 2.5768, "total_shots": 0.5169, "rating": 6.7836, "minutes": 88.56, "total_pass": 26.9216, "accurate_pass": 21.9947, "duels_won": 3.8045, "total_long_balls": 4.139, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8006, "total_own_half_passes": 16.362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.0862, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5596, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9085, "crosses_total": 0.2582, "crosses_accurate": 0.1791, "touches": 42.8646, "possession_lost": 6.0223, "dispossessed": 0.0414, "duels_lost": 3.2687, "aerial_lost": 2.3169, "total_contest": 0.1163, "won_contest": 0.0488, "ball_recovery": 2.2795, "challenges_lost": 0.7751, "fouls": 0.2463, "fouls_drawn": 0.3578, "blocks": 2.1757, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0202, 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"scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0166, "after": 0.0223 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"margin": 0.035068 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.033526 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014689 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014605 } ], "others_margin": 0.019313 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0157, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0585, "tackles": 1.1813, "tackles_won": 0.6513, "clearances": 6.5256, "aerial_won": 3.5371, "total_shots": 0.9479, "rating": 6.916, "minutes": 84.31, "total_pass": 32.6453, "accurate_pass": 25.6779, "duels_won": 4.9025, "total_long_balls": 4.8449, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8924, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0961, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0021, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5492, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6758, "crosses_total": 0.079, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.9886, "possession_lost": 7.5164, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1055, "aerial_lost": 1.6664, "total_contest": 0.2884, "won_contest": 0.0789, "ball_recovery": 3.3217, "challenges_lost": 0.6795, "fouls": 0.6292, "fouls_drawn": 0.7442, "blocks": 1.0477, "goals": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0166, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5175, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "assists": 0.0589, "assist_rate": 0.0589, "expected_goals": 0.0558, "goals": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.0609, "shots_on_target": 0.1692, "total_shots": 0.6251, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 77.42, "total_pass": 27.1057, "accurate_pass": 23.1606, "duels_won": 3.6197, "total_long_balls": 2.2004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9449, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3764, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.166, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.7293, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9946, "crosses_total": 0.2167, "crosses_accurate": 0.0996, "touches": 37.4162, "possession_lost": 7.1614, "dispossessed": 0.4861, "duels_lost": 5.3285, "aerial_won": 1.3117, "aerial_lost": 1.2656, "interceptions": 0.8151, "tackles_won": 0.2757, "tackles": 0.855, "clearances": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9957, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7181, "expected_assists": 0.0613, "assists": 0.0664, "assist_rate": 0.0664, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "goals": 0.0579, "goal_rate": 0.0579, "shots_on_target": 0.1317, "total_shots": 0.5298, "rating": 6.8894, "minutes": 87.85, "total_pass": 47.238, "accurate_pass": 40.2032, "duels_won": 2.6415, "total_long_balls": 6.0307, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8095, "total_own_half_passes": 21.7054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.2109, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9924, "crosses_total": 2.0685, "crosses_accurate": 0.516, "touches": 57.6591, "possession_lost": 9.2172, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7164, "aerial_won": 0.7312, "aerial_lost": 1.2991, "interceptions": 0.3917, "tackles_won": 0.6089, "tackles": 1.4382, "clearances": 2.2271, "total_contest": 0.1261, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5118, "fouls": 0.7794, "fouls_drawn": 0.4721, "blocks": 0.248, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.5952, "total_progression": 53.1448, "progressive_carries": 0.2519, "shots_off_target": 0.3981 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9957, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0309)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7181, "expected_assists": 0.0613, "assists": 0.0643, "assist_rate": 0.0643, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "goals": 0.0561, "goal_rate": 0.0561, "shots_on_target": 0.1276, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.8894, "minutes": 87.85, "total_pass": 47.238, "accurate_pass": 40.2032, "duels_won": 2.6415, "total_long_balls": 6.0307, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8095, 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Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "opponent_faced": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7896, "skill_edge": -0.1351, "height_edge": -0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.4646, "defender_skill": 0.765, "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.765 } ], "xg_override": 0.0285 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7312, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5285, "after": 0.4173 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3981, "after": 0.3143 }, { "stat": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1413 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0622 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0331 } ], "others": -0.0029, "total": 0.7777, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.279427 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141292 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.062242 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.037092 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.033125 } ], "others_margin": -0.002847 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.735142230987549, "model_output": 6.7351, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0617 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0302, "total": 6.7351, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.061702 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038217 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026278 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010529 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007961 } ], "others_margin": -0.030133 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 13, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5875, "expected_assists": 0.0458, "assists": 0.0512, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.0574, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.7771, "rating": 6.7351, "minutes": 81.56, "total_pass": 21.7119, "accurate_pass": 15.1367, "duels_won": 3.6446, "total_long_balls": 3.6307, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8834, "total_own_half_passes": 9.517, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7451, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3915, "crosses_total": 0.3135, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.0541, "possession_lost": 8.2416, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4705, "aerial_won": 0.7596, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.4713, "tackles_won": 0.5061, "tackles": 1.3127, "clearances": 0.8937, 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"James Garner", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "James Garner", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7768, "skill_edge": -0.1558, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.5113, "defender_skill": 0.8576, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "James Garner", "market_value": 53000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8576 } ], "xg_override": 0.032 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7596, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7746, "after": 0.6017 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5717, "after": 0.4441 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2029, "after": 0.1576 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0607, "after": 0.0472 }, { 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"Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.01 (squad xG sum 0.7524, xG scale 1.3463, xA scale 1.1734, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5875, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assist_rate": 0.0506, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "goal_rate": 0.044, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1576, "total_shots": 0.6017, "rating": 6.7351, "minutes": 81.56, "total_pass": 21.7119, "accurate_pass": 15.1367, "duels_won": 3.6446, "total_long_balls": 3.6307, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8834, "total_own_half_passes": 9.517, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7451, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3915, "crosses_total": 0.3097, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.0541, "possession_lost": 8.2416, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4705, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.4863, "tackles_won": 0.5109, "tackles": 1.3127, "clearances": 0.8937, "total_contest": 0.3135, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5061, "fouls": 1.6638, "fouls_drawn": 1.5642, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0635, "ball_carries": 8.2038, "total_progression": 8.2307, "progressive_carries": 0.2665, "shots_off_target": 0.4441, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7768, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "James Garner", "opponent_faced": "James Garner", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1463, "creation_factor": 1.0501 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.013, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7524, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6907, "team_expected_assists": 0.8104, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0276, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "assists": 0.0912, "assist_rate": 0.0912, "expected_goals": 0.0494, "goals": 0.0669, "goal_rate": 0.0669, "shots_on_target": 0.1924, "total_shots": 0.6403, "rating": 6.7796, "minutes": 85.0, "total_pass": 15.8983, "accurate_pass": 12.1933, "duels_won": 0.8172, "total_long_balls": 0.9845, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5449, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8598, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3714, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8219, "crosses_total": 1.3198, "crosses_accurate": 0.3737, "touches": 21.1802, "possession_lost": 5.4003, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 1.0216, "aerial_won": 0.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2724, "interceptions": 0.1423, "tackles_won": 0.2724, "tackles": 0.2724, "clearances": 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1.3873 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.1423, "after": 0.1612 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4397, "after": 0.4554 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6403, "after": 0.6334 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0276, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "assists": 0.0902, "assist_rate": 0.0902, "expected_goals": 0.0494, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "shots_on_target": 0.1903, "total_shots": 0.6382, "rating": 6.7796, "minutes": 85.0, "total_pass": 15.8983, "accurate_pass": 12.1933, "duels_won": 0.8172, "total_long_balls": 0.9845, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5449, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8598, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3714, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8219, "crosses_total": 1.3873, "crosses_accurate": 0.3737, "touches": 21.1802, "possession_lost": 5.4003, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 1.0216, "aerial_won": 0.2724, 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"James Garner, Harrison Armstrong", "opponent_faced": "James Garner, Harrison Armstrong", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "James Garner, Harrison Armstrong", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8173, "skill_edge": -0.1023, "height_edge": -0.022, "attacker_skill": 0.582, "defender_skill": 0.8093, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "James Garner", "market_value": 53000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8576 }, { "player": "Harrison Armstrong", "market_value": 31000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.761 } ], "xg_override": 0.0404 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2724, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6382, "after": 0.5216 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4479, "after": 0.3661 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1903, "after": 0.1555 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0662, "after": 0.0541 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0494, "after": 0.0404 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0276, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "assist_rate": 0.0902, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1555, "total_shots": 0.5216, "rating": 6.7796, "minutes": 85.0, "total_pass": 15.8983, "accurate_pass": 12.1933, "duels_won": 0.8172, "total_long_balls": 0.9845, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5449, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8598, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3714, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8219, "crosses_total": 1.3873, "crosses_accurate": 0.3737, "touches": 21.1802, "possession_lost": 5.4003, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 1.0216, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2724, "interceptions": 0.1612, "tackles_won": 0.2695, "tackles": 0.2724, "clearances": 0.8172, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1673, "fouls": 0.4554, "fouls_drawn": 0.2695, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1423, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1885, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3661, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8173, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Garner, Harrison Armstrong", "opponent_faced": "James Garner, Harrison Armstrong", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.01 (squad xG sum 0.7524, xG scale 1.3463, xA scale 1.1734, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0276, "expected_assists": 0.1084, "assist_rate": 0.0902, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1555, "total_shots": 0.5216, "rating": 6.7796, "minutes": 85.0, "total_pass": 15.8983, "accurate_pass": 12.1933, "duels_won": 0.8172, "total_long_balls": 0.9845, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5449, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8598, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3714, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8219, "crosses_total": 1.3873, "crosses_accurate": 0.3737, "touches": 21.1802, "possession_lost": 5.4003, "dispossessed": 0.1423, "duels_lost": 1.0216, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2724, "interceptions": 0.1612, "tackles_won": 0.2695, "tackles": 0.2724, "clearances": 0.8172, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1673, "fouls": 0.4554, "fouls_drawn": 0.2695, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1423, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1885, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3661, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8173, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Garner, Harrison Armstrong", "opponent_faced": "James Garner, Harrison Armstrong", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, 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{ "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049453 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.01782 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016249 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.014246 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.014046 } ], "others_margin": 0.027058 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2692.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8259, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aurèle Amenda", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Robin Zentner", "ranking": 3511 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Diks", "ranking": 3512 }, { "player_name": "Zuriko Davitashvili", "ranking": 3513 }, { "player_name": "Grischa Prömel", "ranking": 3514 }, { "player_name": "Pol Lozano", "ranking": 3515 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Manu Morlanes", "ranking": 3517 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Claude-Maurice", "ranking": 3518 }, { "player_name": "Sebastián Cáceres", "ranking": 3519 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Caci", "ranking": 3520 }, { "player_name": "Amar 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"others": -0.031, "total": 0.2792, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.74699 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.09069 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.067877 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.057443 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.043287 } ], "others_margin": -0.105038 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.4416006803512573, "model_output": 1.4416, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1409 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1423 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1285 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1051 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0857 } ], "others": -0.0846, "total": 1.4416, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.985595 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.10579 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.086828 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.070438 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.057775 } ], "others_margin": -0.05699 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8831648230552673, "model_output": 0.8832, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8109 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.3693 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.054 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0229 } ], "others": -0.0515, "total": 0.8832, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.896557 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.507355 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.056549 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.025259 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.024177 } ], "others_margin": -0.056748 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2117239534854889, "model_output": 0.2117, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1878 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0795 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0138 } ], "others": -0.0219, "total": 0.2117, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.187803 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.079479 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.029299 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023379 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013827 } ], "others_margin": -0.02199 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.825857162475586, "model_output": 6.8259, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": 0.0378, "total": 6.8259, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.049016 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020776 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014519 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012288 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.012054 } ], "others_margin": 0.037698 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; 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0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0035, "expected_assists": 0.1035, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.6149, "total_progression": 72.9502, "progressive_carries": 1.1487, "key_pass": 0.318, "shots_off_target": 0.2145 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0133, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0481)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3107, "tackles": 0.4491, "tackles_won": 0.2693, "clearances": 1.4608, "aerial_won": 0.8949, "total_shots": 0.209, "rating": 6.8259, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 39.6396, "accurate_pass": 32.9903, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 6.4624, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8294, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6422, 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substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2443, "tackles": 0.3532, "tackles_won": 0.2118, "clearances": 1.1488, "aerial_won": 0.7037, "total_shots": 0.1687, "rating": 6.8259, "minutes": 14.16, "total_pass": 31.1722, "accurate_pass": 25.9432, "duels_won": 3.3756, "total_long_balls": 5.082, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3028, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5121, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5936, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.66, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3496, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.503, "possession_lost": 6.0472, "dispossessed": 0.5001, "duels_lost": 2.7838, "aerial_lost": 1.2086, "total_contest": 0.1806, "won_contest": 0.1806, "ball_recovery": 2.0703, "challenges_lost": 0.318, "fouls": 1.1442, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7108, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.493, "total_progression": 57.3673, "progressive_carries": 0.9033, "key_pass": 0.2501, "shots_off_target": 0.1687, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.229, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.16, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.341, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.229, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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859763, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 180, "market_value": 3300000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6558, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, 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"Oscar Højlund", "ranking": 4697 }, { "player_name": "Yannick Gerhardt", "ranking": 4698 }, { "player_name": "Eric Smith", "ranking": 4699 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", 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"total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1633 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:04:53.735026+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 631, "rows": 22117 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 0.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.0, "aerialWon": 0.0, "totalClearance_p90": 90.0, "totalTackle": 0.0, "totalTackle_p90": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3067217171192169, "model_output": 0.3067, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", 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"importance": 0.1951 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4682 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0355, "total": 0.2565, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.802849 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.082985 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.072045 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.063573 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.044803 } ], "others_margin": -0.129651 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0998996496200562, "model_output": 1.0999, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.371 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2215 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1272 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.102 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0797 } ], "others": 0.1718, "total": 1.0999, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.184699 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.238247 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.143678 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.11351 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.089749 } ], "others_margin": 0.169866 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.48571377992630005, "model_output": 0.4857, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.885 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1298 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0471 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0458 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0431 } ], "others": 0.081, "total": 0.4857, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.038773 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.311718 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.124531 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.107909 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.101283 } ], "others_margin": 0.182605 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16330094635486603, "model_output": 0.1633, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1855 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.075 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0162 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.1633, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.185541 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.074994 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.018503 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018301 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.016247 } ], "others_margin": -0.004362 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.655805587768555, "model_output": 6.6558, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0432 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0198 } ], "others": -0.0604, "total": 6.6558, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.043173 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02547 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.023091 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.021982 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019788 } ], "others_margin": -0.06041 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9840, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3018, "tackles": 0.401, "tackles_won": 0.2524, "clearances": 1.0823, "aerial_won": 0.4779, "total_shots": 0.1607, "rating": 6.6558, "minutes": 12.33, "total_pass": 0.0, "accurate_pass": 0.0, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 1.968, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.984, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1607 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3300000, "quality_factor": 0.4412, "boost_factor": 0.984, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.3 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.30)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.4419, "tackles_won": 0.2781, "clearances": 1.1926, "aerial_won": 0.5266, "total_shots": 0.1771, "rating": 6.6558, "minutes": 13.59, "total_pass": 0.0, "accurate_pass": 0.0, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 2.1686, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.0843, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1771, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.59 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.59, "projection_minutes": 12.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1019, "appearance_probability": 0.299 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.4419, "tackles_won": 0.2781, "clearances": 1.1926, "aerial_won": 0.5266, "total_shots": 0.1771, "rating": 6.6558, "minutes": 13.59, "total_pass": 0.0, "accurate_pass": 0.0, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 2.1686, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.0843, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1771, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.59 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3326, "tackles": 0.4419, "tackles_won": 0.2781, "clearances": 1.1926, "aerial_won": 0.5266, "total_shots": 0.1771, "rating": 6.6558, "minutes": 13.59, "total_pass": 0.0, "accurate_pass": 0.0, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 2.1686, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.0843, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1771, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.59, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.341, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.299, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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}, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075141 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.073983 } ], "others_margin": -0.233599 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.622304916381836, "model_output": 6.6223, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0641 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0613, "total": 6.6223, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.064104 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014961 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010598 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009435 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.009394 } ], "others_margin": -0.061326 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0204, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0954, "goals": 0.1041, "goal_rate": 0.1041, "shots_on_target": 0.2599, "total_shots": 0.8189, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "key_pass": 0.2596, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 21.76, "total_pass": 5.0902, "accurate_pass": 3.4591, "duels_won": 2.6469, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.149, "crosses_total": 0.2339, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.7813, "possession_lost": 4.8012, "dispossessed": 0.8004, "duels_lost": 4.8428, "aerial_lost": 3.4661, "total_contest": 0.8102, "won_contest": 0.4326, "ball_recovery": 0.9694, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1988, "fouls_drawn": 1.5294, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3424, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1988, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2099, "xgot": 0.0622, "offsides": 0.3125, "ball_carries": 4.1247, "total_progression": 18.9482, "progressive_carries": 1.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.559 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0204, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1144, "goals": 0.1249, "goal_rate": 0.1249, "shots_on_target": 0.3117, "total_shots": 0.9821, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "key_pass": 0.3113, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 6.1048, "accurate_pass": 4.1486, "duels_won": 3.1745, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5774, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5284, "possession_lost": 5.7582, "dispossessed": 0.8004, "duels_lost": 5.8081, "aerial_lost": 3.4661, "total_contest": 0.9717, "won_contest": 0.5188, "ball_recovery": 1.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2384, "fouls_drawn": 1.8343, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4107, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2517, "xgot": 0.0746, "offsides": 0.3125, "ball_carries": 4.9469, "total_progression": 22.7252, "progressive_carries": 1.2962, "shots_off_target": 0.6704, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.1, "projection_minutes": 21.76, "minutes_scale": 1.1993, "appearance_probability": 0.595 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1144, "goals": 0.1249, "goal_rate": 0.1249, "shots_on_target": 0.3117, "total_shots": 0.9821, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "key_pass": 0.3113, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 6.1048, "accurate_pass": 4.1486, "duels_won": 3.1745, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5774, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5284, "possession_lost": 5.7582, "dispossessed": 0.8004, "duels_lost": 5.8081, "aerial_lost": 3.4661, "total_contest": 0.9717, "won_contest": 0.5188, "ball_recovery": 1.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2384, "fouls_drawn": 1.8343, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4107, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2517, "xgot": 0.0746, "offsides": 0.3125, "ball_carries": 4.9469, "total_progression": 22.7252, "progressive_carries": 1.2962, "shots_off_target": 0.6704, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1144, "goal_rate": 0.1249, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3117, "total_shots": 0.9821, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "key_pass": 0.3113, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 6.1048, "accurate_pass": 4.1486, "duels_won": 3.1745, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5774, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5284, "possession_lost": 5.7582, "dispossessed": 0.8004, "duels_lost": 5.8081, "aerial_lost": 3.4661, "total_contest": 0.9717, "won_contest": 0.5188, "ball_recovery": 1.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2384, "fouls_drawn": 1.8343, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4107, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2517, "xgot": 0.0746, "offsides": 0.3125, "ball_carries": 4.9469, "total_progression": 22.7252, "progressive_carries": 1.2962, "shots_off_target": 0.6704, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.341, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.01 (squad xG sum 0.7524, xG scale 1.3463, xA scale 1.1734, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.1249, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3117, "total_shots": 0.9821, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "key_pass": 0.3113, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 6.1048, "accurate_pass": 4.1486, "duels_won": 3.1745, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5774, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5284, "possession_lost": 5.7582, "dispossessed": 0.8004, "duels_lost": 5.8081, "aerial_lost": 3.4661, "total_contest": 0.9717, "won_contest": 0.5188, "ball_recovery": 1.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2384, "fouls_drawn": 1.8343, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4107, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2517, "xgot": 0.0598, "offsides": 0.3125, "ball_carries": 4.9469, "total_progression": 22.7252, "progressive_carries": 1.2962, "shots_off_target": 0.6704, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.341, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0639, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.013, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7524, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6907, "team_expected_assists": 0.8104, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3463, "xa_scale": 1.1734, "opponent_lambda": 1.768, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.595 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1144, "after": 0.0916 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0175, "after": 0.0122 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.1249, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3117, "total_shots": 0.9821, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "key_pass": 0.3113, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 6.1048, "accurate_pass": 4.1486, "duels_won": 3.1745, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5774, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5284, "possession_lost": 5.7582, "dispossessed": 0.8004, "duels_lost": 5.8081, "aerial_lost": 3.4661, "total_contest": 0.9717, "won_contest": 0.5188, "ball_recovery": 1.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2384, "fouls_drawn": 1.8343, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4107, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2517, "xgot": 0.0598, "offsides": 0.3125, "ball_carries": 4.9469, "total_progression": 22.7252, "progressive_carries": 1.2962, "shots_off_target": 0.6704, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.341, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0639, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4195, "fifa_rank": 4352.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.1249, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3117, "total_shots": 0.9821, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "key_pass": 0.3113, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 6.1048, "accurate_pass": 4.1486, "duels_won": 3.1745, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5774, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5284, "possession_lost": 5.7582, "dispossessed": 0.8004, "duels_lost": 5.8081, "aerial_lost": 3.4661, "total_contest": 0.9717, "won_contest": 0.5188, "ball_recovery": 1.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2384, "fouls_drawn": 1.8343, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4107, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2517, "xgot": 0.0598, 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"Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.1249, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3117, "total_shots": 0.9821, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "key_pass": 0.3113, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 6.1048, "accurate_pass": 4.1486, "duels_won": 3.1745, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5774, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5284, "possession_lost": 5.7582, "dispossessed": 0.8004, "duels_lost": 5.8081, "aerial_lost": 3.4661, "total_contest": 0.9717, "won_contest": 0.5188, "ball_recovery": 1.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2384, "fouls_drawn": 1.8343, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4107, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2384, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2517, "xgot": 0.0598, "offsides": 0.3125, "ball_carries": 4.9469, "total_progression": 22.7252, "progressive_carries": 1.2962, "shots_off_target": 0.6704, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.341, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0849, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0121, "finishing_factor": 1.0639, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0121, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0098, "squad_weight_total": 0.8008, "weight_share": 0.0122, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Ephron Mason-Clark": { "player_id": 861315, "position": "F", "position_depth": 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"name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0412, "total": 0.3296, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.466465 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.062666 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.032949 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.030789 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.030396 } ], "others_margin": -0.117919 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6137261390686035, "model_output": 6.6137, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0635 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.051, "total": 6.6137, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063452 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03288 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012836 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.010868 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010343 } ], "others_margin": -0.050967 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0122, quality 0.603)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.2136, "total_shots": 0.6363, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 8.7263, "accurate_pass": 6.1426, "duels_won": 2.2464, "total_long_balls": 0.4505, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1899, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8384, "crosses_total": 1.595, "crosses_accurate": 0.2742, "touches": 16.9535, "possession_lost": 6.8438, "dispossessed": 1.1078, "duels_lost": 4.5105, "aerial_lost": 1.4123, "total_contest": 1.0525, "won_contest": 0.2235, "ball_recovery": 1.2967, "challenges_lost": 0.3229, "fouls": 0.9228, "fouls_drawn": 0.8184, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.8236, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0269, "offsides": 0.4821, "ball_carries": 4.8897, "total_progression": 20.1317, "progressive_carries": 1.4791, "shots_off_target": 0.4227 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17200000, "quality_factor": 0.6027, "boost_factor": 1.0122, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goals": 0.0604, "goal_rate": 0.0604, "shots_on_target": 0.2113, "total_shots": 0.6294, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.3337, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 8.7263, "accurate_pass": 6.1426, "duels_won": 2.2464, "total_long_balls": 0.4505, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1899, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8384, "crosses_total": 1.6006, "crosses_accurate": 0.2742, "touches": 16.9535, "possession_lost": 6.8438, "dispossessed": 1.1078, "duels_lost": 4.5105, "aerial_lost": 1.4123, "total_contest": 1.0525, "won_contest": 0.2235, "ball_recovery": 1.2967, "challenges_lost": 0.3229, "fouls": 0.9204, "fouls_drawn": 0.8171, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.8236, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0269, "offsides": 0.4807, "ball_carries": 4.8897, "total_progression": 20.1317, "progressive_carries": 1.4791, "shots_off_target": 0.4227 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2108, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6363, "after": 0.6294 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.595, "after": 1.6006 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goals": 0.0826, "goal_rate": 0.0826, "shots_on_target": 0.289, "total_shots": 0.8672, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.4564, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 11.9355, "accurate_pass": 8.4016, "duels_won": 3.0726, "total_long_balls": 0.6162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2597, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6178, "crosses_total": 2.1892, "crosses_accurate": 0.375, "touches": 23.1884, "possession_lost": 9.3607, "dispossessed": 1.1078, "duels_lost": 6.1693, "aerial_lost": 1.4123, "total_contest": 1.4396, "won_contest": 0.3057, "ball_recovery": 1.7736, "challenges_lost": 0.3229, "fouls": 1.2589, "fouls_drawn": 1.1176, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 1.1265, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0368, "offsides": 0.4807, "ball_carries": 6.688, "total_progression": 27.5355, "progressive_carries": 2.0231, "shots_off_target": 0.5782, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.347, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.95, "projection_minutes": 18.97, "minutes_scale": 1.3678, "appearance_probability": 0.347 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goals": 0.0826, "goal_rate": 0.0826, "shots_on_target": 0.289, "total_shots": 0.8672, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.4564, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 11.9355, "accurate_pass": 8.4016, "duels_won": 3.0726, "total_long_balls": 0.6162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2597, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6178, "crosses_total": 2.1892, "crosses_accurate": 0.375, "touches": 23.1884, "possession_lost": 9.3607, "dispossessed": 1.1078, "duels_lost": 6.1693, "aerial_lost": 1.4123, "total_contest": 1.4396, "won_contest": 0.3057, "ball_recovery": 1.7736, "challenges_lost": 0.3229, "fouls": 1.2589, "fouls_drawn": 1.1176, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 1.1265, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0368, "offsides": 0.4807, "ball_carries": 6.688, "total_progression": 27.5355, "progressive_carries": 2.0231, "shots_off_target": 0.5782, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.347, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.0826, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.289, "total_shots": 0.8672, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.4564, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 11.9355, "accurate_pass": 8.4016, "duels_won": 3.0726, "total_long_balls": 0.6162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2597, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6178, "crosses_total": 2.1892, "crosses_accurate": 0.375, "touches": 23.1884, "possession_lost": 9.3607, "dispossessed": 1.1078, "duels_lost": 6.1693, "aerial_lost": 1.4123, "total_contest": 1.4396, "won_contest": 0.3057, "ball_recovery": 1.7736, "challenges_lost": 0.3229, "fouls": 1.2589, "fouls_drawn": 1.1176, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 1.1265, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0368, "offsides": 0.4807, "ball_carries": 6.688, "total_progression": 27.5355, "progressive_carries": 2.0231, "shots_off_target": 0.5782, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.347, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.341, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.347, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.0826, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.289, "total_shots": 0.8672, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.4564, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 11.9355, "accurate_pass": 8.4016, "duels_won": 3.0726, "total_long_balls": 0.6162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2597, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6178, "crosses_total": 2.1892, "crosses_accurate": 0.375, "touches": 23.1884, "possession_lost": 9.3607, "dispossessed": 1.1078, "duels_lost": 6.1693, "aerial_lost": 1.4123, "total_contest": 1.4396, "won_contest": 0.3057, "ball_recovery": 1.7736, "challenges_lost": 0.3229, "fouls": 1.2589, "fouls_drawn": 1.1176, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 1.1265, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0368, 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"F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 193, "market_value": 16600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6498, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0499, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, 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"player_name": "Haji Wright", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Raphael Veiga", "ranking": 3667 }, { "player_name": "Marcel Ruiz", "ranking": 3668 }, { "player_name": "Alemão", "ranking": 3669 }, { "player_name": "José Paradela", "ranking": 3670 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Høgsberg", "ranking": 3671 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Willer Ditta", "ranking": 3673 }, { "player_name": "Eren Elmalı", "ranking": 3674 }, { "player_name": "Erik Lira", "ranking": 3675 }, { "player_name": "Milan Borjan", "ranking": 3676 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Sotelo", "ranking": 3677 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.921565522102384, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5873438873682901, 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"bench_expected_minutes": 25.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 0.8064, "shots_on_target": 0.432, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "duels_won": 1.2961, "aerial_won": 0.5184, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 8.9285, "accurate_pass": 6.6244, "total_long_balls": 0.4032, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2016, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4562, "crosses_total": 0.4896, "crosses_accurate": 0.2304, "touches": 12.9608, "possession_lost": 2.6498, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1.4113, "aerial_lost": 1.4, "total_contest": 1.7281, "won_contest": 0.9505, "ball_recovery": 0.6336, "challenges_lost": 1.4, "fouls": 0.432, 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"eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Josh Eccles": { "player_id": 944245, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 28, "height": 181, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 2.13, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0173, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, 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official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4458, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "total_shots": 0.3467, "total_pass": 13.1265, "accurate_pass": 10.6498, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "duels_won": 1.5603, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 22.29, "total_long_balls": 1.2383, "accurate_long_balls": 0.743, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2011, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2104, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9534, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.715, "crosses_total": 0.3467, "crosses_accurate": 0.1734, "touches": 16.8415, "possession_lost": 2.13, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1.065, "aerial_won": 0.322, "aerial_lost": 1.0, "interceptions": 0.2724, "tackles_won": 0.3467, "tackles": 0.4706, "clearances": 0.1981, "total_contest": 1.0154, "won_contest": 0.5696, "challenges_lost": 1.1, "fouls": 0.3963, "fouls_drawn": 0.2724, "goal_rate": 0.0173, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1486, "shots_off_target": 0.1238, "blocks": 0.0743, "big_chances_created": 0.0272, "big_chances_missed": 0.0149, "xgot": 0.0106, "ball_carries": 7.6778, "total_progression": 20.0613, "progressive_carries": 1.7337, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.341, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0155, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9245, "creation_factor": 0.93, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0155, "goal_rate": 0.0173, "scorer_weight": 0.0145, "squad_weight_total": 1.0248, "weight_share": 0.0142, "finishing_factor": 0.9245, "appearance_weight": 0.513, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4458, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "expected_goals": 0.0157, "total_shots": 0.3467, "total_pass": 13.1265, "accurate_pass": 10.6498, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "duels_won": 1.5603, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 22.29, "total_long_balls": 1.2383, "accurate_long_balls": 0.743, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2011, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2104, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9534, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.715, "crosses_total": 0.3467, "crosses_accurate": 0.1734, "touches": 16.8415, "possession_lost": 2.13, "dispossessed": 0.8, "duels_lost": 1.065, "aerial_won": 0.322, "aerial_lost": 1.0, "interceptions": 0.2724, "tackles_won": 0.3467, "tackles": 0.4706, "clearances": 0.1981, "total_contest": 1.0154, "won_contest": 0.5696, "challenges_lost": 1.1, "fouls": 0.3963, "fouls_drawn": 0.2724, "goal_rate": 0.0173, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1486, "shots_off_target": 0.1238, "blocks": 0.0743, "big_chances_created": 0.0272, "big_chances_missed": 0.0149, "xgot": 0.0106, "ball_carries": 7.6778, "total_progression": 20.0613, "progressive_carries": 1.7337, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.341, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0155, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0211, "finishing_factor": 0.9245, "creation_factor": 0.93, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0211, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "provider_weight": 0.02, "squad_weight_total": 0.8008, "weight_share": 0.025, "creation_factor": 0.93, "appearance_weight": 0.513, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.01, "expected_assists": 0.81, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 349, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 6.81, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Milan van Ewijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.52, "xg_contribution": 0.1879, "xg_multiplier": 1.0589, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Milan van Ewijk", "role": "RB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.48 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (LW) is evenly matched against Milan van Ewijk in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €23M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.188 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Merlin Röhl", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 18400000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.615, "defenders": [ "Jay DaSilva" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.541, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.549, "xg_contribution": 0.0546, "xg_multiplier": 1.1008, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jay DaSilva", "role": "LB", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.451 } ], "duel_analysis": "Merlin Röhl (RW) is slightly favored against Jay DaSilva in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Christian Nørgaard", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 4800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.46, "defenders": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Frank Onyeka" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.577, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.187, "xg_contribution": 0.0446, "xg_multiplier": 0.922, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813 }, { "player": "Frank Onyeka", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813 } ], "duel_analysis": "Christian Nørgaard (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Caleb Yirenkyi and Frank Onyeka in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.045 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Thierno Barry", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Bobby Thomas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.539, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "xg_contribution": 0.4401, "xg_multiplier": 1.151, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 }, { "player": "Bobby Thomas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thierno Barry (ST) is slightly favored against Ethan Pinnock and Bobby Thomas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€36M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.440 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "James Garner", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "xg_contribution": 0.0684, "xg_multiplier": 1.1078, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.507 } ], "duel_analysis": "James Garner (CDM) is slightly favored against Caleb Yirenkyi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€53M vs €23M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Harrison Armstrong", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "xg_contribution": 0.0853, "xg_multiplier": 1.0615, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.538 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harrison Armstrong (CDM) is slightly favored against Caleb Yirenkyi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jack Rudoni", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "James Tarkowski" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.547, "xg_contribution": 0.2172, "xg_multiplier": 1.0985, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Tarkowski", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.453 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Rudoni (LW) is slightly favored against James Tarkowski in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.217 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Matt Grimes", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "xg_contribution": 0.0285, "xg_multiplier": 0.7896, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "LB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matt Grimes (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Vitaliy Mykolenko in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.029 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Victor Torp", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "James Garner", "Harrison Armstrong" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.779, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0404, "xg_multiplier": 0.8173, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Garner", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Harrison Armstrong", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Victor Torp (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against James Garner and Harrison Armstrong in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€14M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Loum Tchaouna", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 19200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.623, "defenders": [ "Michael Keane", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.623, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1213, "xg_multiplier": 0.9139, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Michael Keane", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Loum Tchaouna (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Michael Keane and Jarrad Branthwaite in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "James Garner" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.347, "xg_contribution": 0.0498, "xg_multiplier": 0.8922, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Garner", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.653 } ], "duel_analysis": "Caleb Yirenkyi (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against James Garner in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €53M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Frank Onyeka", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 7700000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.495, "defenders": [ "James Garner" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "xg_contribution": 0.032, "xg_multiplier": 0.7768, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Garner", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.732 } ], "duel_analysis": "Frank Onyeka (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against James Garner in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €53M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.737, "away_midfield_power": 0.617, "home_creative_power": 0.682, "away_creative_power": 0.52, "home_defensive_power": 0.51, "away_defensive_power": 0.466, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.544, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "Merlin Röhl", "James Garner", "Harrison Armstrong", "Christian Nørgaard" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jack Rudoni", "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Matt Grimes", "Frank Onyeka", "Victor Torp" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "James Garner vs Caleb Yirenkyi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.023, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.991 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.768, "away_lambda": 1.013, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall": { "opponents": [ "Milan van Ewijk", "Jack Rudoni" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Merlin Röhl": { "opponents": [ "Jay DaSilva", "Matt Grimes" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Christian Nørgaard": { "opponents": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Frank Onyeka", "Victor Torp" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thierno Barry": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Bobby Thomas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "James Garner": { "opponents": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Victor Torp", "Frank Onyeka" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Harrison Armstrong": { "opponents": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Victor Torp", "Frank Onyeka" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Tarkowski": { "opponents": [ "Jack Rudoni" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vitaliy Mykolenko": { "opponents": [ "Matt Grimes" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Michael Keane": { "opponents": [ "Loum Tchaouna" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jarrad Branthwaite": { "opponents": [ "Loum Tchaouna" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jordan Pickford": { "opponents": [ "Loum Tchaouna", "Jack Rudoni" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Milan van Ewijk": { "opponents": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jay DaSilva": { "opponents": [ "Merlin Röhl" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Caleb Yirenkyi": { "opponents": [ "Christian Nørgaard", "James Garner", "Harrison Armstrong" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Frank Onyeka": { "opponents": [ "Christian Nørgaard", "James Garner", "Harrison Armstrong" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ethan Pinnock": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bobby Thomas": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jack Rudoni": { "opponents": [ "James Tarkowski", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matt Grimes": { "opponents": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Merlin Röhl" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Victor Torp": { "opponents": [ "James Garner", "Harrison Armstrong", "Christian Nørgaard" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Loum Tchaouna": { "opponents": [ "Michael Keane", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Carl Rushworth": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — James Garner vs Caleb Yirenkyi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.88, Away: 0.49. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9575, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.087, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9655, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9413, "home_midfield_factor": 1.023, "away_midfield_factor": 0.991, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6589, "away_avg_quality": 0.5736, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0853, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.5558, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.6297, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.6731, "elite_count_gap": 3, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1975, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1086, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0632, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8809, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0232 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.023, "result": 1.0467 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0467 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.3599 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9858, "result": 1.3406 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 1.2431 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9655, "result": 1.2002 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.3802 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3802, "result": 1.3802, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1975, "factor": 1.1086, "pre": 1.3802, "result": 1.5301 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.5301 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1506, "result": 1.6806 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.6806 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.6806, "result": 1.681, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9857, "pre": 1.681, "result": 1.657, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.657 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.657 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.657, "result": 1.657, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.115, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.768 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.4892, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.7294 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.991, "result": 0.7228 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7228 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7228 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9065, "result": 0.6553 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9575, "result": 0.6274 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9413, "result": 0.5906 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.087, "result": 0.6776 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.6776, "result": 0.6776, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1975, "factor": 0.9368, "pre": 0.6776, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1762, "result": 0.8262 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 0.8262 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8262, "result": 0.826, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0143, "pre": 0.826, "result": 0.8378, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.838 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.838 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.838, "result": 0.838, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.115, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.013 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1506, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1762, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.657, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.838, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.6806, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8262, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.115, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.768, "final_away_lambda": 1.013 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9858, "attack_index": 0.892, "defense_concede_index": 1.077, "form_multiplier": 1.009, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.22, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.47, "team_ppg": 1.3, "opponent_ppg": 1.14 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9065, "attack_index": 0.844, "defense_concede_index": 0.929, "form_multiplier": 0.991, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.16, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.27, "team_ppg": 1.14, "opponent_ppg": 1.3 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Everton vs Coventry. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.681, Away 0.826). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.768, Away 1.013 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.768, "away_lambda": 1.013, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.681, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.826 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.115, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:30:57Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }