{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261107", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0921, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0921, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0739, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Osasuna", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2418, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.112 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0921 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.083 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0739 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0694 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0514, "0-1": 0.0664, "0-2": 0.0446, "0-3": 0.0197, "0-4": 0.0066, "0-5": 0.0017, "1-0": 0.083, "1-1": 0.112, "1-2": 0.0739, "1-3": 0.0327, "1-4": 0.0109, "1-5": 0.0029, "1-6": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0694, "2-1": 0.0921, "2-2": 0.0612, "2-3": 0.0271, "2-4": 0.009, "2-5": 0.0024, "2-6": 0.0005, "3-0": 0.0383, "3-1": 0.0509, "3-2": 0.0338, "3-3": 0.0149, "3-4": 0.005, "3-5": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0159, "4-1": 0.0211, "4-2": 0.014, "4-3": 0.0062, "4-4": 0.0021, "4-5": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0053, "5-1": 0.007, "5-2": 0.0046, "5-3": 0.002, "5-4": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0014, "6-1": 0.0019, "6-2": 0.0013, "6-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4511, "draw": 0.2418, "away_win": 0.3071 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5732, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4268, "btts_yes": 0.5955, "btts_no": 0.4045, "home_clean_sheet": 0.265, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1909 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.79, "MCR": 6.93, "ATR": 6.82, "GK": 7.0 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.93, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.95, "GK": 7.0 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Osasuna vs Athletic Club. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Osasuna 3W-3D-4L vs Athletic Club over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin, Oihan Sancet", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jon Moncayola vs Mikel Jauregizar). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.78, Away: 0.70. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel." }, "confidence": 0.67, "home_lambda": 1.656, "away_lambda": 1.328, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 3, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 0.9929, "away_multiplier": 1.0071 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.112, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4511, "draw": 0.2418, "away_win": 0.3071 }, "favorite": "Osasuna", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4511, "fair_spread": 0.328, "fair_total": 2.984, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.656, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.328, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5732, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5955, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.265, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1909, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ante Budimir (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.5516, "probability": 0.424, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Oihan Sancet (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.4244, "probability": 0.3458, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Moi Gómez (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.1803, "probability": 0.165, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Yuri Berchiche (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.1831, "probability": 0.1673, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.984, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 921, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.9, "possession_home_pct": 48.1, "possession_away_pct": 51.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Osasuna", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4511, "script": "Osasuna is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.33 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Athletic Club must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Osasuna lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Osasuna chance creation leans on Ante Budimir against Aymeric Laporte, Dani Vivian in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Osasuna: starters carry the main goal usage through Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin; bench watchlist: Romain Del Castillo, Raúl Moro, Lucas Torró.", "Athletic Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Oihan Sancet; bench watchlist: Nico Williams, Beñat Prados, Alejandro Rego Mora.", "Assist usage should flow through Rubén García, Yuri Berchiche; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Osasuna tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Athletic Club is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Osasuna.", "Athletic Club wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Osasuna": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Sergio Herrera": { "player_id": 294377, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 192, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1195, "rating": 6.9972, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 33, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.739, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 7.321, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0798, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Oihan Sancet, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083495.0, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.321 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083231.0, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": 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"ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jardel", "ranking": 1576 }, { "player_name": "Kim Dong-wook", "ranking": 1577 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Đukanović", "ranking": 1578 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Hall", "ranking": 1579 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking": 1580 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 }, { "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking": 1584 }, { "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking": 1585 }, { "player_name": "Pavel Šulc", "ranking": 1586 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", 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target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Osasuna, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.6839, "goals_prevented": -0.1197, "rating": 6.9972, "minutes": 87.93, "total_pass": 24.4357, "accurate_pass": 17.2261, "total_long_balls": 13.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4239, "touches": 33.2462, "clearances": 0.9724, "ball_recovery": 7.7986, "high_claims": 0.5837, "punches": 0.7406, "aerial_won": 0.159, "sweeper_actions": 0.7422, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6845, "saves_inside_box": 0.8303, "possession_lost": 7.3371, "duels_won": 0.6943, "duels_lost": 0.0226, "total_contest": 0.1276, "won_contest": 0.1276, "fouls": 0.1488, "fouls_drawn": 0.2575, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0755 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-08", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 13.0755, "accurateLongBalls": 6.4239, "possessionLostCtrl": 7.3371, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.2409, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.4842, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7869 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.683922290802002, "model_output": 2.6839, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": 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"minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0968, "tackles": 1.1272, "tackles_won": 0.622, "clearances": 5.907, "aerial_won": 2.0544, "total_shots": 0.5766, "rating": 6.9164, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 54.8101, "accurate_pass": 46.5534, "duels_won": 3.3203, "total_long_balls": 11.656, "accurate_long_balls": 5.875, "total_own_half_passes": 32.6781, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.233, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3205, "crosses_total": 0.044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0408, "touches": 67.6802, "possession_lost": 9.1501, "dispossessed": 0.1744, "duels_lost": 3.207, "aerial_lost": 1.557, "total_contest": 0.2905, "won_contest": 0.1456, "ball_recovery": 2.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1997, "fouls": 1.2205, "fouls_drawn": 0.4815, "blocks": 0.918, "goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "assists": 0.1121, "assist_rate": 0.1121, "expected_goals": 0.1015, "expected_assists": 0.0959, "shots_on_target": 0.3152, "big_chances_created": 0.1209, "xgot": 0.1401, "ball_carries": 21.0483, "total_progression": 92.7432, "progressive_carries": 0.5319, "key_pass": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.2614 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0968, "tackles": 1.1272, "tackles_won": 0.622, "clearances": 5.907, "aerial_won": 2.0544, "total_shots": 0.5766, "rating": 6.9164, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 54.8101, "accurate_pass": 46.5534, "duels_won": 3.3203, "total_long_balls": 11.656, "accurate_long_balls": 5.875, "total_own_half_passes": 32.6781, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.233, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3205, "crosses_total": 0.044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0408, "touches": 67.6802, "possession_lost": 9.1501, "dispossessed": 0.1744, "duels_lost": 3.207, "aerial_lost": 1.557, "total_contest": 0.2905, "won_contest": 0.1456, "ball_recovery": 2.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1997, "fouls": 1.2205, "fouls_drawn": 0.4815, "blocks": 0.918, "goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "assists": 0.1121, "assist_rate": 0.1121, "expected_goals": 0.1015, "expected_assists": 0.0959, "shots_on_target": 0.3152, "big_chances_created": 0.1209, "xgot": 0.1401, "ball_carries": 21.0483, "total_progression": 92.7432, "progressive_carries": 0.5319, "key_pass": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.2614 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0968, "tackles": 1.1272, "tackles_won": 0.622, "clearances": 5.907, "aerial_won": 2.0544, "total_shots": 0.5766, "rating": 6.9164, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 54.8101, "accurate_pass": 46.5534, "duels_won": 3.3203, "total_long_balls": 11.656, "accurate_long_balls": 5.875, "total_own_half_passes": 32.6781, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.233, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3205, "crosses_total": 0.044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0408, "touches": 67.6802, "possession_lost": 9.1501, "dispossessed": 0.1744, "duels_lost": 3.207, "aerial_lost": 1.557, "total_contest": 0.2905, "won_contest": 0.1456, "ball_recovery": 2.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1997, "fouls": 1.2205, "fouls_drawn": 0.4815, "blocks": 0.918, "goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "assists": 0.1121, "assist_rate": 0.1121, "expected_goals": 0.1015, "expected_assists": 0.0959, "shots_on_target": 0.3152, "big_chances_created": 0.1209, "xgot": 0.1401, "ball_carries": 21.0483, "total_progression": 92.7432, "progressive_carries": 0.5319, "key_pass": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Robert Navarro", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0968, "tackles": 1.1272, "tackles_won": 0.622, "clearances": 5.907, "aerial_won": 2.0544, "total_shots": 0.5766, "rating": 6.9164, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 54.8101, "accurate_pass": 46.5534, "duels_won": 3.3203, "total_long_balls": 11.656, "accurate_long_balls": 5.875, "total_own_half_passes": 32.6781, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.233, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3205, "crosses_total": 0.044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0408, "touches": 67.6802, "possession_lost": 9.1501, "dispossessed": 0.1744, "duels_lost": 3.207, "aerial_lost": 1.557, "total_contest": 0.2905, "won_contest": 0.1456, "ball_recovery": 2.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1997, "fouls": 1.2205, "fouls_drawn": 0.4815, "blocks": 0.918, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1121, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1015, "expected_assists": 0.0959, "shots_on_target": 0.3152, "big_chances_created": 0.1209, "xgot": 0.1401, "ball_carries": 21.0483, "total_progression": 92.7432, "progressive_carries": 0.5319, "key_pass": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Robert Navarro", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.0981, xG scale 1.5081, xA scale 1.5547, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0968, "tackles": 1.1272, "tackles_won": 0.622, "clearances": 5.907, "aerial_won": 2.0544, "total_shots": 0.5766, "rating": 6.9164, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 54.8101, "accurate_pass": 46.5534, "duels_won": 3.3203, "total_long_balls": 11.656, "accurate_long_balls": 5.875, "total_own_half_passes": 32.6781, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.233, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3205, "crosses_total": 0.044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0408, "touches": 67.6802, "possession_lost": 9.1501, "dispossessed": 0.1744, "duels_lost": 3.207, "aerial_lost": 1.557, "total_contest": 0.2905, "won_contest": 0.1456, "ball_recovery": 2.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1997, "fouls": 1.2205, "fouls_drawn": 0.4815, "blocks": 0.918, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1121, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1531, "expected_assists": 0.1491, "shots_on_target": 0.3152, "big_chances_created": 0.1209, "xgot": 0.2113, "ball_carries": 21.0483, "total_progression": 92.7432, "progressive_carries": 0.5319, "key_pass": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Robert Navarro", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.111 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.656, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0981, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6924, "team_expected_assists": 1.0764, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5081, "xa_scale": 1.5547, "opponent_lambda": 1.328, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1015, "after": 0.1531 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0959, "after": 0.1491 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0968, "tackles": 1.1272, "tackles_won": 0.622, "clearances": 5.907, "aerial_won": 2.0544, "total_shots": 0.5766, "rating": 6.9164, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 54.8101, "accurate_pass": 46.5534, "duels_won": 3.3203, "total_long_balls": 11.656, "accurate_long_balls": 5.875, "total_own_half_passes": 32.6781, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.233, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3205, "crosses_total": 0.044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0408, "touches": 67.6802, "possession_lost": 9.1501, "dispossessed": 0.1744, "duels_lost": 3.207, "aerial_lost": 1.557, "total_contest": 0.2905, "won_contest": 0.1456, "ball_recovery": 2.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1997, "fouls": 1.2205, "fouls_drawn": 0.4815, "blocks": 0.918, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1121, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1531, "expected_assists": 0.1491, "shots_on_target": 0.3152, "big_chances_created": 0.1209, "xgot": 0.2113, "ball_carries": 21.0483, "total_progression": 92.7432, "progressive_carries": 0.5319, "key_pass": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Robert Navarro", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.111, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 145, "fifa_rank": 162.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0968, "tackles": 1.1272, "tackles_won": 0.622, "clearances": 5.907, "aerial_won": 2.0544, "total_shots": 0.5766, "rating": 6.9164, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 54.8101, "accurate_pass": 46.5534, "duels_won": 3.3203, "total_long_balls": 11.656, "accurate_long_balls": 5.875, "total_own_half_passes": 32.6781, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.233, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3205, "crosses_total": 0.044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0408, "touches": 67.6802, "possession_lost": 9.1501, "dispossessed": 0.1744, "duels_lost": 3.207, "aerial_lost": 1.557, "total_contest": 0.2905, "won_contest": 0.1456, "ball_recovery": 2.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1997, "fouls": 1.2205, "fouls_drawn": 0.4815, "blocks": 0.918, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1121, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1531, "expected_assists": 0.1491, "shots_on_target": 0.3152, "big_chances_created": 0.1209, "xgot": 0.2113, "ball_carries": 21.0483, "total_progression": 92.7432, "progressive_carries": 0.5319, "key_pass": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Robert Navarro", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.142, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.111, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.142, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "scorer_weight": 0.1225, "squad_weight_total": 1.7367, "weight_share": 0.0705, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.5907, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5907, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Jonathan Dubasin", "weight": 0.331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.331, "runner_up": "Ante Budimir", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2514 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0968, "tackles": 1.1272, "tackles_won": 0.622, "clearances": 5.907, "aerial_won": 2.0544, "total_shots": 0.5766, "rating": 6.9164, "minutes": 89.62, "total_pass": 54.8101, "accurate_pass": 46.5534, "duels_won": 3.3203, "total_long_balls": 11.656, "accurate_long_balls": 5.875, "total_own_half_passes": 32.6781, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.233, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.1319, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3205, "crosses_total": 0.044, "crosses_accurate": 0.0408, "touches": 67.6802, "possession_lost": 9.1501, "dispossessed": 0.1744, "duels_lost": 3.207, "aerial_lost": 1.557, "total_contest": 0.2905, "won_contest": 0.1456, "ball_recovery": 2.9196, "challenges_lost": 0.1997, "fouls": 1.2205, "fouls_drawn": 0.4815, "blocks": 0.918, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1121, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1531, "expected_assists": 0.1491, "shots_on_target": 0.3152, "big_chances_created": 0.1209, "xgot": 0.2113, "ball_carries": 21.0483, "total_progression": 92.7432, "progressive_carries": 0.5319, "key_pass": 0.3297, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Robert Navarro", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.142, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1385, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.111, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1385, "assist_rate": 0.1121, "provider_weight": 0.1657, "squad_weight_total": 1.0448, "weight_share": 0.1586, "creation_factor": 1.111, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén García", "weight": 0.1705, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1705, "runner_up": "Alejandro Catena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1657 } ] } 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0.4715, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0569 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0717, "total": 0.4715, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056893 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021613 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.020418 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.016 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012078 } ], "others_margin": -0.071784 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.752490520477295, "model_output": 6.7525, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 6.7525, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016228 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015645 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008826 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008303 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.007282 } ], "others_margin": -0.004571 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0026, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9187, "tackles": 1.3778, "tackles_won": 0.823, "clearances": 5.5208, "aerial_won": 1.6091, "total_shots": 0.4727, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 86.41, "total_pass": 45.584, "accurate_pass": 41.2619, "duels_won": 2.6116, "total_long_balls": 4.715, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6519, "total_own_half_passes": 32.4336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.306, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9559, "crosses_total": 0.1347, "crosses_accurate": 0.0034, "touches": 57.3616, "possession_lost": 5.0946, "dispossessed": 0.1858, "duels_lost": 2.5441, "aerial_lost": 1.3474, "total_contest": 0.1769, "won_contest": 0.1007, "ball_recovery": 3.5485, "challenges_lost": 0.1048, "fouls": 0.8518, "fouls_drawn": 0.0738, "blocks": 0.4503, "goals": 0.0069, "goal_rate": 0.0069, "assists": 0.0671, "assist_rate": 0.0671, "expected_goals": 0.0428, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "shots_on_target": 0.1251, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0172, "ball_carries": 14.4625, "total_progression": 35.2997, "progressive_carries": 0.2846, "key_pass": 0.2235, "shots_off_target": 0.3476 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0026, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0033)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9157, "tackles": 1.3778, "tackles_won": 0.8307, "clearances": 5.5208, "aerial_won": 1.6091, "total_shots": 0.4712, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 86.41, "total_pass": 45.584, "accurate_pass": 41.2619, "duels_won": 2.6116, "total_long_balls": 4.715, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6519, "total_own_half_passes": 32.4336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.306, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9559, "crosses_total": 0.1343, "crosses_accurate": 0.0034, "touches": 57.3616, "possession_lost": 5.0946, "dispossessed": 0.1858, "duels_lost": 2.5441, "aerial_lost": 1.3474, "total_contest": 0.1769, "won_contest": 0.1007, "ball_recovery": 3.5485, "challenges_lost": 0.1048, "fouls": 0.8594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0788, "blocks": 0.4503, "goals": 0.0069, "goal_rate": 0.0069, "assists": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "expected_goals": 0.0428, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "shots_on_target": 0.1247, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0172, "ball_carries": 14.4625, "total_progression": 35.2997, "progressive_carries": 0.2846, "key_pass": 0.2235, "shots_off_target": 0.3476 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0033, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9601, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.823, "after": 0.8307 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8518, "after": 0.8594 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9157, "tackles": 1.3778, "tackles_won": 0.8307, "clearances": 5.5208, "aerial_won": 1.6091, "total_shots": 0.4723, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 86.41, "total_pass": 45.584, "accurate_pass": 41.2619, "duels_won": 2.6116, "total_long_balls": 4.715, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6519, "total_own_half_passes": 32.4336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.306, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9559, "crosses_total": 0.1343, "crosses_accurate": 0.0034, "touches": 57.3616, "possession_lost": 5.0946, "dispossessed": 0.1858, "duels_lost": 2.5441, "aerial_lost": 1.3474, "total_contest": 0.1769, "won_contest": 0.1007, "ball_recovery": 3.5485, "challenges_lost": 0.1048, "fouls": 0.8594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0788, "blocks": 0.4503, "goals": 0.0069, "goal_rate": 0.0069, "assists": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "expected_goals": 0.0428, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "shots_on_target": 0.1247, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0172, "ball_carries": 14.4625, "total_progression": 35.2997, "progressive_carries": 0.2846, "key_pass": 0.2235, "shots_off_target": 0.3476 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9157, "tackles": 1.3778, "tackles_won": 0.8307, "clearances": 5.5208, "aerial_won": 1.6091, "total_shots": 0.4723, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 86.41, "total_pass": 45.584, "accurate_pass": 41.2619, "duels_won": 2.6116, "total_long_balls": 4.715, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6519, "total_own_half_passes": 32.4336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.306, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9559, "crosses_total": 0.1343, "crosses_accurate": 0.0034, "touches": 57.3616, "possession_lost": 5.0946, "dispossessed": 0.1858, "duels_lost": 2.5441, "aerial_lost": 1.3474, "total_contest": 0.1769, "won_contest": 0.1007, "ball_recovery": 3.5485, "challenges_lost": 0.1048, "fouls": 0.8594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0788, "blocks": 0.4503, "goals": 0.0069, "goal_rate": 0.0069, "assists": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "expected_goals": 0.0428, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "shots_on_target": 0.1247, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0172, "ball_carries": 14.4625, "total_progression": 35.2997, "progressive_carries": 0.2846, "key_pass": 0.2235, "shots_off_target": 0.3476, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.598, "opponent_faced": "Peio Canales", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Peio Canales", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9157, "tackles": 1.3778, "tackles_won": 0.8307, "clearances": 5.5208, "aerial_won": 1.6091, "total_shots": 0.4723, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 86.41, "total_pass": 45.584, "accurate_pass": 41.2619, "duels_won": 2.6116, "total_long_balls": 4.715, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6519, "total_own_half_passes": 32.4336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.306, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9559, "crosses_total": 0.1343, "crosses_accurate": 0.0034, "touches": 57.3616, "possession_lost": 5.0946, "dispossessed": 0.1858, "duels_lost": 2.5441, "aerial_lost": 1.3474, "total_contest": 0.1769, "won_contest": 0.1007, "ball_recovery": 3.5485, "challenges_lost": 0.1048, "fouls": 0.8594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0788, "blocks": 0.4503, "goal_rate": 0.0069, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0428, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "shots_on_target": 0.1247, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0172, "ball_carries": 14.4625, "total_progression": 35.2997, "progressive_carries": 0.2846, "key_pass": 0.2235, "shots_off_target": 0.3476, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.598, "opponent_faced": "Peio Canales", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.0981, xG scale 1.5081, xA scale 1.5547, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9157, "tackles": 1.3778, "tackles_won": 0.8307, "clearances": 5.5208, "aerial_won": 1.6091, "total_shots": 0.4723, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 86.41, "total_pass": 45.584, "accurate_pass": 41.2619, "duels_won": 2.6116, "total_long_balls": 4.715, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6519, "total_own_half_passes": 32.4336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.306, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9559, "crosses_total": 0.1343, "crosses_accurate": 0.0034, "touches": 57.3616, "possession_lost": 5.0946, "dispossessed": 0.1858, "duels_lost": 2.5441, "aerial_lost": 1.3474, "total_contest": 0.1769, "won_contest": 0.1007, "ball_recovery": 3.5485, "challenges_lost": 0.1048, "fouls": 0.8594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0788, "blocks": 0.4503, "goal_rate": 0.0069, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0645, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.1247, "big_chances_created": 0.0012, "xgot": 0.0259, "ball_carries": 14.4625, "total_progression": 35.2997, "progressive_carries": 0.2846, "key_pass": 0.2235, "shots_off_target": 0.3476, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.598, "opponent_faced": "Peio Canales", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.656, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0981, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6924, "team_expected_assists": 1.0764, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5081, "xa_scale": 1.5547, "opponent_lambda": 1.328, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0428, "after": 0.0645 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9157, "tackles": 1.3778, "tackles_won": 0.8307, "clearances": 5.5208, "aerial_won": 1.6091, "total_shots": 0.4723, "rating": 6.7525, "minutes": 86.41, "total_pass": 45.584, "accurate_pass": 41.2619, "duels_won": 2.6116, "total_long_balls": 4.715, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6519, "total_own_half_passes": 32.4336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.306, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1504, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9559, "crosses_total": 0.1343, "crosses_accurate": 0.0034, "touches": 57.3616, "possession_lost": 5.0946, "dispossessed": 0.1858, "duels_lost": 2.5441, "aerial_lost": 1.3474, "total_contest": 0.1769, "won_contest": 0.1007, "ball_recovery": 3.5485, "challenges_lost": 0.1048, "fouls": 0.8594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0788, "blocks": 0.4503, "goal_rate": 0.0069, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0645, "expected_assists": 0.0135, 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}, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8658, "tackles": 1.1338, "tackles_won": 0.675, "clearances": 4.9264, "aerial_won": 1.456, "total_shots": 0.3396, "rating": 6.7549, "minutes": 71.72, "total_pass": 37.4739, "accurate_pass": 32.3445, "duels_won": 2.6063, "total_long_balls": 4.1957, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3141, "total_own_half_passes": 25.2736, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.0008, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2004, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3437, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7779, "possession_lost": 5.5186, "dispossessed": 0.0188, "duels_lost": 2.0318, "aerial_lost": 0.817, "total_contest": 0.3448, "won_contest": 0.2324, "ball_recovery": 1.7371, "challenges_lost": 0.2109, "fouls": 0.8873, "fouls_drawn": 0.4249, "blocks": 0.2123, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0302, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "expected_assists": 0.026, "shots_on_target": 0.2318, "big_chances_created": 0.0348, "xgot": 0.0529, "ball_carries": 12.8824, "total_progression": 27.6046, "progressive_carries": 0.1872, "key_pass": 0.0612, "shots_off_target": 0.1078, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Robert Navarro", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.0981, xG scale 1.5081, xA scale 1.5547, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8658, "tackles": 1.1338, "tackles_won": 0.675, "clearances": 4.9264, "aerial_won": 1.456, "total_shots": 0.3396, "rating": 6.7549, "minutes": 71.72, "total_pass": 37.4739, "accurate_pass": 32.3445, "duels_won": 2.6063, "total_long_balls": 4.1957, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3141, "total_own_half_passes": 25.2736, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.0008, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2004, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3437, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.7779, "possession_lost": 5.5186, "dispossessed": 0.0188, "duels_lost": 2.0318, "aerial_lost": 0.817, "total_contest": 0.3448, "won_contest": 0.2324, "ball_recovery": 1.7371, 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"name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0573 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": 0.5504, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057267 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.032354 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022486 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.016585 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013052 } ], "others_margin": -0.027579 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.740437030792236, "model_output": 6.7404, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0122, "total": 6.7404, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020289 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018508 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015999 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015821 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012564 } ], "others_margin": -0.012179 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.122, "tackles": 1.8079, "tackles_won": 1.0652, "clearances": 2.497, "aerial_won": 0.729, "total_shots": 0.549, "rating": 6.7404, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 32.2832, "accurate_pass": 26.7307, "duels_won": 3.8224, "total_long_balls": 4.0146, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7514, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.177, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5537, "crosses_total": 1.9163, "crosses_accurate": 0.6174, "touches": 54.6289, "possession_lost": 10.1379, "dispossessed": 0.6693, "duels_lost": 2.9979, "aerial_lost": 0.5384, "total_contest": 1.3444, "won_contest": 0.8608, "ball_recovery": 3.9187, "challenges_lost": 0.3864, "fouls": 0.9219, "fouls_drawn": 0.9261, "blocks": 0.3094, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "assists": 0.0012, "assist_rate": 0.0012, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.1046, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 13.3752, "total_progression": 56.9688, "progressive_carries": 1.4343, "key_pass": 0.683, "shots_off_target": 0.4728 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.122, "tackles": 1.8079, "tackles_won": 1.0652, "clearances": 2.497, "aerial_won": 0.729, "total_shots": 0.549, "rating": 6.7404, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 32.2832, "accurate_pass": 26.7307, "duels_won": 3.8224, "total_long_balls": 4.0146, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7514, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.177, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5537, "crosses_total": 1.9163, "crosses_accurate": 0.6174, "touches": 54.6289, "possession_lost": 10.1379, "dispossessed": 0.6693, "duels_lost": 2.9979, "aerial_lost": 0.5384, "total_contest": 1.3444, "won_contest": 0.8608, "ball_recovery": 3.9187, "challenges_lost": 0.3864, "fouls": 0.9219, "fouls_drawn": 0.9261, "blocks": 0.3094, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "assists": 0.0012, "assist_rate": 0.0012, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.1046, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 13.3752, "total_progression": 56.9688, "progressive_carries": 1.4343, "key_pass": 0.683, "shots_off_target": 0.4728 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.122, "tackles": 1.8079, "tackles_won": 1.0652, "clearances": 2.497, "aerial_won": 0.729, "total_shots": 0.549, "rating": 6.7404, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 32.2832, "accurate_pass": 26.7307, "duels_won": 3.8224, "total_long_balls": 4.0146, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7514, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.177, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5537, "crosses_total": 1.9163, "crosses_accurate": 0.6174, "touches": 54.6289, "possession_lost": 10.1379, "dispossessed": 0.6693, "duels_lost": 2.9979, "aerial_lost": 0.5384, "total_contest": 1.3444, "won_contest": 0.8608, "ball_recovery": 3.9187, "challenges_lost": 0.3864, "fouls": 0.9219, "fouls_drawn": 0.9261, "blocks": 0.3094, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "assists": 0.0012, "assist_rate": 0.0012, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.1046, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 13.3752, "total_progression": 56.9688, "progressive_carries": 1.4343, "key_pass": 0.683, "shots_off_target": 0.4728, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.122, "tackles": 1.8079, "tackles_won": 1.0652, "clearances": 2.497, "aerial_won": 0.729, "total_shots": 0.549, "rating": 6.7404, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 32.2832, "accurate_pass": 26.7307, "duels_won": 3.8224, "total_long_balls": 4.0146, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7514, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.177, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5537, "crosses_total": 1.9163, "crosses_accurate": 0.6174, "touches": 54.6289, "possession_lost": 10.1379, "dispossessed": 0.6693, "duels_lost": 2.9979, "aerial_lost": 0.5384, "total_contest": 1.3444, "won_contest": 0.8608, "ball_recovery": 3.9187, "challenges_lost": 0.3864, "fouls": 0.9219, "fouls_drawn": 0.9261, "blocks": 0.3094, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0012, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.1046, "xgot": 0.0162, "ball_carries": 13.3752, "total_progression": 56.9688, "progressive_carries": 1.4343, "key_pass": 0.683, "shots_off_target": 0.4728, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.0981, xG scale 1.5081, xA scale 1.5547, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.122, "tackles": 1.8079, "tackles_won": 1.0652, "clearances": 2.497, "aerial_won": 0.729, "total_shots": 0.549, "rating": 6.7404, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 32.2832, "accurate_pass": 26.7307, "duels_won": 3.8224, "total_long_balls": 4.0146, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7514, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.177, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5537, "crosses_total": 1.9163, "crosses_accurate": 0.6174, "touches": 54.6289, "possession_lost": 10.1379, "dispossessed": 0.6693, "duels_lost": 2.9979, "aerial_lost": 0.5384, "total_contest": 1.3444, "won_contest": 0.8608, "ball_recovery": 3.9187, "challenges_lost": 0.3864, "fouls": 0.9219, "fouls_drawn": 0.9261, "blocks": 0.3094, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0012, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0442, "expected_assists": 0.095, "shots_on_target": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.1046, "xgot": 0.0244, "ball_carries": 13.3752, "total_progression": 56.9688, "progressive_carries": 1.4343, "key_pass": 0.683, "shots_off_target": 0.4728, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0076, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.656, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0981, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6924, "team_expected_assists": 1.0764, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5081, "xa_scale": 1.5547, "opponent_lambda": 1.328, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0293, "after": 0.0442 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0611, "after": 0.095 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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1235.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.122, "tackles": 1.8079, "tackles_won": 1.0652, "clearances": 2.497, "aerial_won": 0.729, "total_shots": 0.549, "rating": 6.7404, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 32.2832, "accurate_pass": 26.7307, "duels_won": 3.8224, "total_long_balls": 4.0146, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7514, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.177, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5537, "crosses_total": 1.9163, "crosses_accurate": 0.6174, "touches": 54.6289, "possession_lost": 10.1379, "dispossessed": 0.6693, "duels_lost": 2.9979, "aerial_lost": 0.5384, "total_contest": 1.3444, "won_contest": 0.8608, "ball_recovery": 3.9187, "challenges_lost": 0.3864, "fouls": 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0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "scorer_weight": 0.0445, "squad_weight_total": 1.7367, "weight_share": 0.0256, "finishing_factor": 1.0076, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.5907, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5907, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Jonathan Dubasin", "weight": 0.331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.331, "runner_up": "Ante Budimir", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2514 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.122, "tackles": 1.8079, "tackles_won": 1.0652, "clearances": 2.497, "aerial_won": 0.729, "total_shots": 0.549, "rating": 6.7404, "minutes": 85.19, "total_pass": 32.2832, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8585, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "assists": 0.0692, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "expected_goals": 0.0379, "goals": 0.0633, "goal_rate": 0.0633, "shots_on_target": 0.1752, "total_shots": 0.5435, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 81.5, "total_pass": 34.8163, "accurate_pass": 29.4887, "duels_won": 2.5889, "total_long_balls": 4.9177, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8728, "total_own_half_passes": 16.3624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8035, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4539, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6852, "crosses_total": 2.467, "crosses_accurate": 0.5076, "touches": 47.0972, "possession_lost": 9.2928, "dispossessed": 0.5917, "duels_lost": 3.4124, "aerial_won": 0.4309, "aerial_lost": 0.6231, "interceptions": 0.5678, "tackles_won": 0.8813, "tackles": 1.6131, "clearances": 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2.8728, "total_own_half_passes": 16.3624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8035, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4539, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6852, "crosses_total": 2.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.5076, "touches": 47.0972, "possession_lost": 9.2928, "dispossessed": 0.5917, "duels_lost": 3.4124, "aerial_won": 0.4309, "aerial_lost": 0.6231, "interceptions": 0.581, "tackles_won": 0.8912, "tackles": 1.6131, "clearances": 1.4188, "total_contest": 0.148, "won_contest": 0.1168, "challenges_lost": 0.9842, "fouls": 1.1908, "fouls_drawn": 0.4239, "blocks": 0.0485, "big_chances_created": 0.0357, "big_chances_missed": 0.0081, "xgot": 0.0147, "ball_carries": 10.1278, "total_progression": 20.3861, "progressive_carries": 0.5755, "shots_off_target": 0.3683 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0106, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9056, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", 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"total_own_half_passes": 16.3624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8035, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4539, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6852, "crosses_total": 2.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.5076, "touches": 47.0972, "possession_lost": 9.2928, "dispossessed": 0.5917, "duels_lost": 3.4124, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6231, "interceptions": 0.581, "tackles_won": 0.8912, "tackles": 1.6131, "clearances": 1.4188, "total_contest": 0.148, "won_contest": 0.1168, "challenges_lost": 0.9842, "fouls": 1.1908, "fouls_drawn": 0.4239, "blocks": 0.0485, "big_chances_created": 0.0357, "big_chances_missed": 0.0087, "xgot": 0.0157, "ball_carries": 10.1278, "total_progression": 20.3861, "progressive_carries": 0.5755, "shots_off_target": 0.3937, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0689, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0689, "skill_edge": 0.0109, "height_edge": 0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.5, "defender_skill": 0.4759, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "market_value": 5200000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4759 } ], "xg_override": 0.0405 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4309, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5455, "after": 0.5831 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3683, "after": 0.3937 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1772, "after": 0.1894 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8585, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "assist_rate": 0.0685, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0405, "goal_rate": 0.0669, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1894, "total_shots": 0.5831, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 81.5, "total_pass": 34.8163, "accurate_pass": 29.4887, "duels_won": 2.5889, "total_long_balls": 4.9177, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8728, "total_own_half_passes": 16.3624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8035, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4539, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6852, "crosses_total": 2.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.5076, "touches": 47.0972, "possession_lost": 9.2928, "dispossessed": 0.5917, "duels_lost": 3.4124, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6231, "interceptions": 0.581, "tackles_won": 0.8912, "tackles": 1.6131, "clearances": 1.4188, "total_contest": 0.148, "won_contest": 0.1168, "challenges_lost": 0.9842, "fouls": 1.1908, "fouls_drawn": 0.4239, "blocks": 0.0485, "big_chances_created": 0.0357, "big_chances_missed": 0.0087, "xgot": 0.0157, "ball_carries": 10.1278, "total_progression": 20.3861, "progressive_carries": 0.5755, "shots_off_target": 0.3937, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0689, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.0981, xG scale 1.5081, xA scale 1.5547, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8585, "expected_assists": 0.1108, "assist_rate": 0.0685, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.0669, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1894, "total_shots": 0.5831, "rating": 6.8207, "minutes": 81.5, "total_pass": 34.8163, "accurate_pass": 29.4887, "duels_won": 2.5889, "total_long_balls": 4.9177, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8728, "total_own_half_passes": 16.3624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8035, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4539, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6852, "crosses_total": 2.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.5076, "touches": 47.0972, "possession_lost": 9.2928, "dispossessed": 0.5917, "duels_lost": 3.4124, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6231, "interceptions": 0.581, "tackles_won": 0.8912, "tackles": 1.6131, "clearances": 1.4188, "total_contest": 0.148, "won_contest": 0.1168, "challenges_lost": 0.9842, "fouls": 1.1908, "fouls_drawn": 0.4239, "blocks": 0.0485, "big_chances_created": 0.0357, "big_chances_missed": 0.0087, "xgot": 0.0237, "ball_carries": 10.1278, "total_progression": 20.3861, "progressive_carries": 0.5755, "shots_off_target": 0.3937, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0689, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9769 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.656, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0981, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6924, "team_expected_assists": 1.0764, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5081, "xa_scale": 1.5547, "opponent_lambda": 1.328, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0405, "after": 0.0611 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0713, "after": 0.1108 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.5049734711647034, "model_output": 0.505, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.3137 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1192 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0476 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0422 } ], "others": -0.1429, "total": 0.505, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.313731 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119186 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.052715 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.047608 }, { 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}, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034405 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.02835 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020173 } ], "others_margin": 0.01061 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3917, "expected_assists": 0.1159, "assists": 0.1034, "assist_rate": 0.1034, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "goals": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "shots_on_target": 0.1379, "total_shots": 0.5036, "rating": 7.12, "minutes": 77.32, "total_pass": 47.3433, "accurate_pass": 41.2089, "duels_won": 3.9298, "total_long_balls": 5.3577, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6761, "total_own_half_passes": 18.9506, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.149, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.3927, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.06, "crosses_total": 2.1195, "crosses_accurate": 0.8319, "touches": 59.8985, "possession_lost": 9.8674, "dispossessed": 0.3648, "duels_lost": 2.7283, "aerial_won": 0.4176, "aerial_lost": 0.3712, "interceptions": 0.648, "tackles_won": 0.5733, "tackles": 1.2265, "clearances": 0.5593, "total_contest": 1.3824, "won_contest": 0.7745, "challenges_lost": 0.8083, "fouls": 0.7561, "fouls_drawn": 1.5113, "blocks": 0.1132, "big_chances_created": 0.1985, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0021, "ball_carries": 21.7037, "total_progression": 47.2973, "progressive_carries": 1.2611, "shots_off_target": 0.3657 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0114)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3917, "expected_assists": 0.1159, "assists": 0.1022, "assist_rate": 0.1022, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "goals": 0.0616, "goal_rate": 0.0616, "shots_on_target": 0.1363, "total_shots": 0.4979, "rating": 7.12, "minutes": 77.32, "total_pass": 47.3433, "accurate_pass": 41.2089, "duels_won": 3.9298, "total_long_balls": 5.3577, "accurate_long_balls": 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2.1195, "after": 2.1002 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.648, "after": 0.6553 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5733, "after": 0.5668 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5036, "after": 0.4979 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3917, "expected_assists": 0.1159, "assists": 0.1022, "assist_rate": 0.1022, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "goals": 0.0616, "goal_rate": 0.0616, "shots_on_target": 0.1363, "total_shots": 0.502, "rating": 7.12, "minutes": 77.32, "total_pass": 47.3433, "accurate_pass": 41.2089, "duels_won": 3.9298, "total_long_balls": 5.3577, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6761, "total_own_half_passes": 18.9506, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.149, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.3927, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.06, "crosses_total": 2.1002, "crosses_accurate": 0.8319, "touches": 59.8985, "possession_lost": 9.8674, "dispossessed": 0.3648, "duels_lost": 2.7283, 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"numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9804, "skill_edge": -0.0173, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4759, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "market_value": 5200000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4759 } ], "xg_override": 0.039 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4176, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.502, "after": 0.4922 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3657, "after": 0.3585 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3917, "expected_assists": 0.1159, "assist_rate": 0.1022, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goal_rate": 0.0604, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1336, "total_shots": 0.4922, "rating": 7.12, "minutes": 77.32, "total_pass": 47.3433, "accurate_pass": 41.2089, "duels_won": 3.9298, "total_long_balls": 5.3577, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6761, "total_own_half_passes": 18.9506, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.149, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.3927, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.06, "crosses_total": 2.1002, "crosses_accurate": 0.8319, "touches": 59.8985, "possession_lost": 9.8674, "dispossessed": 0.3648, "duels_lost": 2.7283, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3712, "interceptions": 0.6553, "tackles_won": 0.5668, "tackles": 1.2265, "clearances": 0.5593, 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contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.0981, xG scale 1.5081, xA scale 1.5547, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3917, "expected_assists": 0.1803, "assist_rate": 0.1022, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0588, "goal_rate": 0.0604, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1336, "total_shots": 0.4922, "rating": 7.12, "minutes": 77.32, "total_pass": 47.3433, "accurate_pass": 41.2089, "duels_won": 3.9298, "total_long_balls": 5.3577, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6761, "total_own_half_passes": 18.9506, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.149, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.3927, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.06, "crosses_total": 2.1002, "crosses_accurate": 0.8319, "touches": 59.8985, "possession_lost": 9.8674, "dispossessed": 0.3648, "duels_lost": 2.7283, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3712, "interceptions": 0.6553, "tackles_won": 0.5668, "tackles": 1.2265, "clearances": 0.5593, "total_contest": 1.3824, "won_contest": 0.7745, "challenges_lost": 0.8083, 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2693 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1254 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0646 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0268 } ], "others": -0.0929, "total": 0.6155, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.269258 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125359 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.064621 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041171 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.026787 } ], "others_margin": 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}, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.135174 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.129884 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.059321 } ], "others_margin": -0.42471 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5996356010437012, "model_output": 0.5996, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1772 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.07 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0483 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0452 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0356 } ], "others": -0.0702, "total": 0.5996, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.228106 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.084033 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.062417 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.062156 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.051719 } ], "others_margin": -0.110629 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.814296722412109, "model_output": 6.8143, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0521 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0354 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0206 } ], "others": -0.0391, "total": 6.8143, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052144 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.035448 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021435 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.021427 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.020641 } ], "others_margin": -0.03924 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 47, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9981, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.403, "goals": 0.4314, "goal_rate": 0.4314, "shots_on_target": 0.9927, "total_shots": 2.4772, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.5985, "rating": 6.8143, "minutes": 87.41, "total_pass": 11.3535, "accurate_pass": 6.799, "duels_won": 6.7999, "total_long_balls": 0.2198, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2913, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.742, "crosses_total": 0.0877, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.9958, "possession_lost": 10.3162, "dispossessed": 1.0744, "duels_lost": 6.4672, "aerial_lost": 2.8994, "total_contest": 1.6904, "won_contest": 0.7534, "ball_recovery": 1.6708, "challenges_lost": 0.2873, "fouls": 1.5991, "fouls_drawn": 1.2591, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0454, "tackles_won": 0.5852, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2038 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.1084 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0946 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0981 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0604 } ], "others": 0.1849, "total": 1.4419, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.258262 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.114308 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.090087 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.085493 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.049261 } ], "others_margin": 0.137161 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.863459587097168, "model_output": 6.8635, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.052 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0154 } ], "others": -0.0135, "total": 6.8635, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051962 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.02659 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.021431 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.019112 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01536 } ], "others_margin": -0.01361 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1174, "goals": 0.1381, "goal_rate": 0.1381, "shots_on_target": 0.4177, "total_shots": 1.1581, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "key_pass": 1.4391, "rating": 6.8635, "minutes": 71.12, "total_pass": 24.1474, "accurate_pass": 19.608, "duels_won": 4.2593, "total_long_balls": 3.0741, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2986, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1519, "crosses_total": 4.4939, "crosses_accurate": 1.474, "touches": 40.3389, "possession_lost": 10.2854, "dispossessed": 0.4977, "duels_lost": 4.5773, "aerial_lost": 1.1505, "total_contest": 1.138, "won_contest": 0.5462, "ball_recovery": 2.8647, "challenges_lost": 0.8098, "fouls": 1.5582, "fouls_drawn": 0.9768, "assists": 0.1165, "assist_rate": 0.1165, "interceptions": 0.3941, "tackles_won": 0.9915, "tackles": 1.853, "clearances": 1.3136, "blocks": 0.0857, "big_chances_created": 0.4542, "big_chances_missed": 0.1024, "xgot": 0.0432, "offsides": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 9.7497, "total_progression": 15.1763, "progressive_carries": 0.6007, "shots_off_target": 0.7404 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0074)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1174, "goals": 0.1371, "goal_rate": 0.1371, "shots_on_target": 0.4217, "total_shots": 1.1637, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "key_pass": 1.4391, "rating": 6.8635, "minutes": 71.12, "total_pass": 24.1474, "accurate_pass": 19.608, "duels_won": 4.2593, "total_long_balls": 3.0741, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2986, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1519, 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] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1174, "goals": 0.1371, "goal_rate": 0.1371, "shots_on_target": 0.4217, "total_shots": 1.1637, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "key_pass": 1.4391, "rating": 6.8635, "minutes": 71.12, "total_pass": 24.1474, "accurate_pass": 19.608, "duels_won": 4.2593, "total_long_balls": 3.0741, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2986, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1519, "crosses_total": 4.5019, "crosses_accurate": 1.474, "touches": 40.3389, "possession_lost": 10.2854, "dispossessed": 0.4977, "duels_lost": 4.5773, "aerial_lost": 1.1505, "total_contest": 1.138, "won_contest": 0.5462, "ball_recovery": 2.8647, "challenges_lost": 0.8098, "fouls": 1.5536, "fouls_drawn": 0.973, "assists": 0.1156, "assist_rate": 0.1156, "interceptions": 0.3946, "tackles_won": 0.991, "tackles": 1.853, "clearances": 1.3136, "blocks": 0.0857, "big_chances_created": 0.4542, "big_chances_missed": 0.1024, "xgot": 0.0432, "offsides": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 9.7497, "total_progression": 15.1763, "progressive_carries": 0.6007, "shots_off_target": 0.7404 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1091, "goals": 0.1274, "goal_rate": 0.1274, "shots_on_target": 0.3919, "total_shots": 1.0815, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "key_pass": 1.4391, "rating": 6.8635, "minutes": 71.12, "total_pass": 24.1474, "accurate_pass": 19.608, "duels_won": 4.2593, "total_long_balls": 3.0741, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2986, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1519, "crosses_total": 4.5019, "crosses_accurate": 1.474, "touches": 40.3389, "possession_lost": 10.2854, "dispossessed": 0.4977, "duels_lost": 4.5773, "aerial_lost": 1.1505, "total_contest": 1.138, "won_contest": 0.5462, "ball_recovery": 2.8647, "challenges_lost": 0.8098, "fouls": 1.5536, "fouls_drawn": 0.973, "assists": 0.1156, "assist_rate": 0.1156, "interceptions": 0.3946, "tackles_won": 0.991, "tackles": 1.853, "clearances": 1.3136, "blocks": 0.0857, "big_chances_created": 0.4542, "big_chances_missed": 0.0952, "xgot": 0.0402, "offsides": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 9.7497, "total_progression": 15.1763, "progressive_carries": 0.6007, "shots_off_target": 0.6881, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9294, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yeray Álvarez", "opponent_faced": "Yeray Álvarez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yeray Álvarez", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9294, "skill_edge": 0.0, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Yeray Álvarez", "market_value": 930000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1091 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1637, "after": 1.0815 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7404, "after": 0.6881 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4217, "after": 0.3919 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1371, "after": 0.1274 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1174, "after": 0.1091 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1024, "after": 0.0952 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1091, "goal_rate": 0.1274, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3919, "total_shots": 1.0815, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "key_pass": 1.4391, "rating": 6.8635, "minutes": 71.12, "total_pass": 24.1474, "accurate_pass": 19.608, "duels_won": 4.2593, "total_long_balls": 3.0741, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2986, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1519, "crosses_total": 4.5019, "crosses_accurate": 1.474, "touches": 40.3389, "possession_lost": 10.2854, "dispossessed": 0.4977, "duels_lost": 4.5773, "aerial_lost": 1.1505, "total_contest": 1.138, "won_contest": 0.5462, "ball_recovery": 2.8647, "challenges_lost": 0.8098, "fouls": 1.5536, "fouls_drawn": 0.973, "assist_rate": 0.1156, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3946, "tackles_won": 0.991, "tackles": 1.853, "clearances": 1.3136, "blocks": 0.0857, "big_chances_created": 0.4542, "big_chances_missed": 0.0952, "xgot": 0.0402, "offsides": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 9.7497, "total_progression": 15.1763, "progressive_carries": 0.6007, "shots_off_target": 0.6881, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9294, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yeray Álvarez", "opponent_faced": "Yeray Álvarez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.0981, xG scale 1.5081, xA scale 1.5547, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1645, "goal_rate": 0.1274, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3919, "total_shots": 1.0815, "expected_assists": 0.1525, "key_pass": 1.4391, "rating": 6.8635, "minutes": 71.12, "total_pass": 24.1474, "accurate_pass": 19.608, "duels_won": 4.2593, "total_long_balls": 3.0741, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2986, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1519, "crosses_total": 4.5019, "crosses_accurate": 1.474, "touches": 40.3389, "possession_lost": 10.2854, "dispossessed": 0.4977, "duels_lost": 4.5773, "aerial_lost": 1.1505, "total_contest": 1.138, "won_contest": 0.5462, "ball_recovery": 2.8647, "challenges_lost": 0.8098, "fouls": 1.5536, "fouls_drawn": 0.973, "assist_rate": 0.1156, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3946, "tackles_won": 0.991, "tackles": 1.853, "clearances": 1.3136, "blocks": 0.0857, "big_chances_created": 0.4542, "big_chances_missed": 0.0952, "xgot": 0.0606, "offsides": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 9.7497, "total_progression": 15.1763, "progressive_carries": 0.6007, "shots_off_target": 0.6881, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9294, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Yeray Álvarez", "opponent_faced": "Yeray Álvarez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.115, "creation_factor": 1.1182 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.656, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0981, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6924, "team_expected_assists": 1.0764, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5081, "xa_scale": 1.5547, "opponent_lambda": 1.328, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1091, "after": 0.1645 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0981, "after": 0.1525 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1645, "goal_rate": 0.1274, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3919, "total_shots": 1.0815, "expected_assists": 0.1525, "key_pass": 1.4391, "rating": 6.8635, "minutes": 71.12, "total_pass": 24.1474, "accurate_pass": 19.608, "duels_won": 4.2593, "total_long_balls": 3.0741, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2986, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1519, "crosses_total": 4.5019, "crosses_accurate": 1.474, "touches": 40.3389, "possession_lost": 10.2854, "dispossessed": 0.4977, "duels_lost": 4.5773, "aerial_lost": 1.1505, "total_contest": 1.138, "won_contest": 0.5462, "ball_recovery": 2.8647, "challenges_lost": 0.8098, "fouls": 1.5536, "fouls_drawn": 0.973, "assist_rate": 0.1156, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3946, "tackles_won": 0.991, "tackles": 1.853, "clearances": 1.3136, "blocks": 0.0857, "big_chances_created": 0.4542, "big_chances_missed": 0.0952, 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ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1645, "goal_rate": 0.1274, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3919, "total_shots": 1.0815, "expected_assists": 0.1525, "key_pass": 1.4391, "rating": 6.8635, "minutes": 71.12, "total_pass": 24.1474, "accurate_pass": 19.608, "duels_won": 4.2593, "total_long_balls": 3.0741, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2986, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1519, "crosses_total": 4.5019, "crosses_accurate": 1.474, "touches": 40.3389, "possession_lost": 10.2854, "dispossessed": 0.4977, "duels_lost": 4.5773, "aerial_lost": 1.1505, "total_contest": 1.138, "won_contest": 0.5462, "ball_recovery": 2.8647, "challenges_lost": 0.8098, "fouls": 1.5536, "fouls_drawn": 0.973, "assist_rate": 0.1156, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3946, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1606 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0807 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0417 } ], "others": 0.0176, "total": 0.8401, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.208734 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.09948 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.065873 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.053988 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.052061 } ], "others_margin": 0.02118 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7965312004089355, "model_output": 6.7965, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9949, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1801, "goals": 0.2334, "goal_rate": 0.2334, "shots_on_target": 0.5344, "total_shots": 1.4929, "expected_assists": 0.0804, "key_pass": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 69.73, "total_pass": 26.9737, "accurate_pass": 22.5484, "duels_won": 2.9394, "total_long_balls": 1.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7694, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3904, "crosses_total": 0.5039, "crosses_accurate": 0.1917, "touches": 46.2877, "possession_lost": 12.4605, "dispossessed": 1.785, "duels_lost": 6.0699, "aerial_lost": 0.5776, "total_contest": 3.3438, "won_contest": 0.8161, "ball_recovery": 3.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.7225, "fouls": 0.7694, "fouls_drawn": 0.2255, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.8744, "tackles_won": 0.9366, "tackles": 1.3938, "clearances": 1.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2653, "xgot": 0.4239, "offsides": 0.5308, "ball_carries": 11.1849, "total_progression": 31.0814, "progressive_carries": 0.2653, "shots_off_target": 0.9585 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.9949, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0188)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1801, "goals": 0.229, "goal_rate": 0.229, "shots_on_target": 0.536, "total_shots": 1.488, "expected_assists": 0.0804, "key_pass": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 69.73, "total_pass": 26.9737, "accurate_pass": 22.5484, "duels_won": 2.9394, "total_long_balls": 1.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7694, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3904, "crosses_total": 0.5056, 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"expected_assists": 0.0804, "key_pass": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7965, "minutes": 69.73, "total_pass": 26.9737, "accurate_pass": 22.5484, "duels_won": 2.9394, "total_long_balls": 1.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7694, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3904, "crosses_total": 0.5056, "crosses_accurate": 0.1917, "touches": 46.2877, "possession_lost": 12.4605, "dispossessed": 1.785, "duels_lost": 6.0699, "aerial_lost": 0.5776, "total_contest": 3.3438, "won_contest": 0.8161, "ball_recovery": 3.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.7225, "fouls": 0.7773, "fouls_drawn": 0.2325, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8916, "tackles_won": 0.919, "tackles": 1.3938, "clearances": 1.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2666, "xgot": 0.4259, "offsides": 0.5208, "ball_carries": 11.1849, "total_progression": 31.0814, "progressive_carries": 0.2653, "shots_off_target": 0.9631, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0048, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, 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2.9394, "total_long_balls": 1.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7694, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3904, "crosses_total": 0.5056, "crosses_accurate": 0.1917, "touches": 46.2877, "possession_lost": 12.4605, "dispossessed": 1.785, "duels_lost": 6.0699, "aerial_lost": 0.5776, "total_contest": 3.3438, "won_contest": 0.8161, "ball_recovery": 3.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.7225, "fouls": 0.7773, "fouls_drawn": 0.2325, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8916, "tackles_won": 0.919, "tackles": 1.3938, "clearances": 1.1154, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2666, "xgot": 0.6423, "offsides": 0.5208, "ball_carries": 11.1849, "total_progression": 31.0814, "progressive_carries": 0.2653, "shots_off_target": 0.9631, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0048, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.483, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.066472 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.066012 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.05045 } ], "others_margin": -0.189678 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.28263822197914124, "model_output": 0.2826, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8118 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1257 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0151 } ], "others": -0.065, "total": 0.2826, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.898104 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.255351 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.093763 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.08139 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.042565 } ], "others_margin": -0.20701 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.14357131719589233, "model_output": 0.1436, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.194 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1042 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": -0.0437, "total": 0.1436, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.194005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.104165 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018535 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.011788 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.011033 } ], "others_margin": -0.043794 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6954169273376465, "model_output": 6.6954, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0337, "total": 6.6954, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018776 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01428 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013408 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013024 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010218 } ], "others_margin": -0.033658 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4058, "tackles": 0.7601, "tackles_won": 0.4939, "clearances": 0.7792, "aerial_won": 0.282, "total_shots": 0.1433, "rating": 6.6954, "minutes": 22.73, "total_pass": 11.4246, "accurate_pass": 9.6365, "duels_won": 1.065, "total_long_balls": 1.6032, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8317, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1114, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7996, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3132, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8369, "crosses_total": 1.0833, "crosses_accurate": 0.2853, "touches": 18.3336, "possession_lost": 4.7086, "dispossessed": 0.4245, "duels_lost": 1.6735, "aerial_lost": 0.1127, "total_contest": 0.4665, "won_contest": 0.1447, "ball_recovery": 1.4839, "challenges_lost": 0.4681, "fouls": 0.5169, "fouls_drawn": 0.1689, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, 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"step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.7 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2413, "tackles": 0.4545, "tackles_won": 0.2955, "clearances": 0.4659, "aerial_won": 0.1686, "total_shots": 0.0859, "rating": 6.6954, "minutes": 13.59, "total_pass": 6.8316, "accurate_pass": 5.7624, "duels_won": 0.6368, "total_long_balls": 0.9587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4973, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6741, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0883, "crosses_total": 0.6418, "crosses_accurate": 0.1706, "touches": 10.963, "possession_lost": 2.8156, "dispossessed": 0.4245, "duels_lost": 1.0007, "aerial_lost": 0.1127, "total_contest": 0.279, "won_contest": 0.0865, "ball_recovery": 0.8873, "challenges_lost": 0.4681, "fouls": 0.3082, "fouls_drawn": 0.1002, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0616, "assist_rate": 0.0616, "expected_goals": 0.0, 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"sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 1976.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7109, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aimar Oroz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rio Ngumoha", "ranking": 3315 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker-Peters", "ranking": 3316 }, { "player_name": "Alberto Costa", "ranking": 3317 }, { "player_name": "Tajon Buchanan", "ranking": 3318 }, { "player_name": "Dion Drena Beljo", "ranking": 3319 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Konstantinos Koulierakis", "ranking": 3321 }, { "player_name": "Óliver Torres", "ranking": 3322 }, { "player_name": "Daley Blind", "ranking": 3323 }, { "player_name": "Williot Swedberg", "ranking": 3324 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Cabrera", "ranking": 3325 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", 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"totalShots", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0054 } ], "others": 0.0191, "total": 0.1726, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.479121 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.227463 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.062217 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.049376 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.034396 } ], "others_margin": 0.117558 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.43972596526145935, "model_output": 0.4397, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3579 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2343 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.022 } ], "others": 0.0806, "total": 0.4397, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.357859 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.234312 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031571 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.024004 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.022005 } ], "others_margin": 0.080531 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7108893394470215, "model_output": 6.7109, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0812 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0005, "total": 6.7109, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027804 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025102 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006297 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.005568 } ], "others_margin": -0.000574 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.485)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5401, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "assists": 0.0504, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "shots_on_target": 0.1725, "total_shots": 0.4394, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4902, "accurate_pass": 7.6037, "duels_won": 1.5166, "total_long_balls": 0.4063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2324, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.138, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4657, "crosses_total": 0.2995, "crosses_accurate": 0.1739, "touches": 13.7565, "possession_lost": 3.4186, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 2.5535, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1478, "tackles": 0.2956, "clearances": 0.0, 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{ "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0025 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0022 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 0.0359, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506243 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.135988 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.074185 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054918 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.051083 } ], "others_margin": -0.145747 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.12467186152935028, "model_output": 0.1247, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1497 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0271, "total": 0.1247, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.636786 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049744 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.044471 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.028338 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.020745 } ], "others_margin": -0.197389 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.44265642762184143, "model_output": 0.4427, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3888 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0622 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0232 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 0.4427, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.388798 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.062231 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037696 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.023235 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.023203 } ], "others_margin": -0.007116 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.700950622558594, "model_output": 6.701, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0847 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": -0.0131, "total": 6.701, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08467 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036381 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01082 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.006396 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.004951 } ], "others_margin": -0.013236 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2406, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "assists": 0.0338, "assist_rate": 0.0338, "expected_goals": 0.037, "goals": 0.0358, "goal_rate": 0.0358, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.4417, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 7.4275, "accurate_pass": 5.8958, "duels_won": 1.132, "total_long_balls": 0.82, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2203, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1752, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7206, "crosses_total": 0.1873, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1726, "possession_lost": 2.0653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8787, "aerial_won": 0.7856, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1873, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1591, "clearances": 0.8058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4173, "fouls_drawn": 0.1873, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4713, "total_progression": 0.3855, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3173 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0060)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2406, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "assists": 0.0336, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "expected_goals": 0.037, "goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.1237, "total_shots": 0.4399, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 7.4275, "accurate_pass": 5.8958, "duels_won": 1.132, "total_long_balls": 0.82, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2203, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1752, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7206, "crosses_total": 0.1862, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1726, "possession_lost": 2.0653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8787, "aerial_won": 0.7856, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1862, "tackles_won": 0.0018, "tackles": 0.1591, "clearances": 0.8058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4157, "fouls_drawn": 0.1862, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4713, "total_progression": 0.3855, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3173 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.006, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.191, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 18.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4387, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 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"history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"model_output": 0.4192, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2657 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": -0.0079, "total": 0.4192, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.484748 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063658 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.051347 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.049408 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034532 } ], "others_margin": -0.018647 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.637673377990723, "model_output": 6.6377, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0334, "total": 6.6377, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056984 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031813 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014206 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013078 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012327 } ], "others_margin": -0.033411 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.84, "projection_minutes": 23.22, "minutes_scale": 0.9406, "appearance_probability": 0.719 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056984 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031813 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014206 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013078 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012327 } ], "others_margin": -0.033411 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.84, "projection_minutes": 23.22, "minutes_scale": 0.9406, "appearance_probability": 0.719 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, "possession_lost": 4.9256, "dispossessed": 0.2192, "duels_lost": 1.5373, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.5341, "won_contest": 0.6426, "ball_recovery": 1.1065, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1375, "assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0371, "clearances": 0.134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 6.1193, "total_progression": 38.6553, "progressive_carries": 1.7163, "shots_off_target": 0.3787, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, 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"projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.0981, xG scale 1.5081, xA scale 1.5547, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0517, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.5528, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "key_pass": 0.3928, "rating": 6.6377, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.2544, "accurate_pass": 5.6929, "duels_won": 0.8173, "total_long_balls": 0.4323, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0459, "crosses_total": 1.9815, "crosses_accurate": 0.4867, "touches": 13.6312, 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"contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0023 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.002 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 0.0371, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.541132 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.115848 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.056068 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.051891 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.045174 } ], "others_margin": -0.187336 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03591689094901085, "model_output": 0.0359, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0025 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0022 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 0.0359, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506243 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.135988 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.074185 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054918 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.051083 } ], "others_margin": -0.145747 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.12467186152935028, "model_output": 0.1247, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1497 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0271, "total": 0.1247, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.636786 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049744 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.044471 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.028338 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.020745 } ], "others_margin": -0.197389 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.44265642762184143, "model_output": 0.4427, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3888 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0622 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0232 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 0.4427, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.388798 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.062231 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037696 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.023235 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.023203 } ], "others_margin": -0.007116 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.700950622558594, "model_output": 6.701, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0847 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": -0.0131, "total": 6.701, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08467 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036381 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01082 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.006396 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.004951 } ], "others_margin": -0.013236 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2406, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "assists": 0.0338, "assist_rate": 0.0338, "expected_goals": 0.037, "goals": 0.0358, "goal_rate": 0.0358, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.4417, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 7.4275, "accurate_pass": 5.8958, "duels_won": 1.132, "total_long_balls": 0.82, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2203, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1752, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7206, "crosses_total": 0.1873, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1726, "possession_lost": 2.0653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8787, "aerial_won": 0.7856, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1873, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1591, "clearances": 0.8058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4173, "fouls_drawn": 0.1873, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4713, "total_progression": 0.3855, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3173 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0060)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2406, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "assists": 0.0336, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "expected_goals": 0.037, "goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.1237, "total_shots": 0.4399, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 7.4275, "accurate_pass": 5.8958, "duels_won": 1.132, "total_long_balls": 0.82, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2203, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1752, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7206, "crosses_total": 0.1862, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1726, "possession_lost": 2.0653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8787, "aerial_won": 0.7856, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1862, "tackles_won": 0.0018, "tackles": 0.1591, "clearances": 0.8058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4157, "fouls_drawn": 0.1862, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4713, "total_progression": 0.3855, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3173 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.006, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.191, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 18.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4387, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.14, "projection_minutes": 17.19, "minutes_scale": 1.0553, "appearance_probability": 0.564 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2539, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.1305, "total_shots": 0.4654, "rating": 6.701, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 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}, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2447 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0414 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0194 } ], "others": -0.0489, "total": 0.2838, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.436665 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.097315 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080518 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.060825 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.05667 } ], "others_margin": -0.158969 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.592504501342773, "model_output": 6.5925, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 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"history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9898, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0789, "goals": 0.0602, "goal_rate": 0.0602, "shots_on_target": 0.245, "total_shots": 0.5858, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.2809, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 18.69, "total_pass": 6.8483, "accurate_pass": 6.8483, "duels_won": 1.8993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2433, "crosses_total": 1.4446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1923, "possession_lost": 1.4446, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.535, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4548, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4548, "tackles": 0.4548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9796, "total_progression": 4.2856, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3408 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.9898, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.7 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goals": 0.0817, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "shots_on_target": 0.3326, "total_shots": 0.7952, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.3813, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 9.2962, "accurate_pass": 9.2962, "duels_won": 2.5782, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1175, "crosses_total": 1.961, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8355, "possession_lost": 1.961, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6174, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6174, "tackles": 0.6174, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6872, "total_progression": 5.8175, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4626, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.37, "projection_minutes": 18.69, "minutes_scale": 1.3574, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goals": 0.0817, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "shots_on_target": 0.3326, "total_shots": 0.7952, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.3813, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 9.2962, "accurate_pass": 9.2962, "duels_won": 2.5782, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1175, "crosses_total": 1.961, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8355, "possession_lost": 1.961, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6174, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6174, "tackles": 0.6174, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6872, "total_progression": 5.8175, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4626, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3326, "total_shots": 0.7952, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.3813, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 9.2962, "accurate_pass": 9.2962, "duels_won": 2.5782, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1175, "crosses_total": 1.961, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8355, "possession_lost": 1.961, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6174, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6174, "tackles": 0.6174, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6872, "total_progression": 5.8175, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4626, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.583, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 1.0981, xG scale 1.5081, xA scale 1.5547, team xA 1.08 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3326, "total_shots": 0.7952, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "key_pass": 0.3813, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 9.2962, "accurate_pass": 9.2962, "duels_won": 2.5782, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1175, "crosses_total": 1.961, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8355, "possession_lost": 1.961, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6174, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6174, "tackles": 0.6174, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6872, "total_progression": 5.8175, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4626, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.583, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8383, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.656, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0981, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6924, "team_expected_assists": 1.0764, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5081, "xa_scale": 1.5547, "opponent_lambda": 1.328, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1071, "after": 0.0908 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8525, "tackles": 1.5508, "tackles_won": 1.0031, "clearances": 2.788, "aerial_won": 1.0705, "total_shots": 1.2353, "rating": 7.0429, "minutes": 77.9, "total_pass": 56.1253, "accurate_pass": 51.0319, "duels_won": 3.558, "total_long_balls": 3.9472, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2671, "total_own_half_passes": 23.3761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3286, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.7493, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7034, "crosses_total": 2.9216, "crosses_accurate": 0.6612, "touches": 76.5457, "possession_lost": 9.3908, "dispossessed": 0.1933, "duels_lost": 1.6605, "aerial_lost": 0.5476, "total_contest": 0.4128, "won_contest": 0.19, "ball_recovery": 5.1219, "challenges_lost": 0.2622, "fouls": 0.656, "fouls_drawn": 0.478, "blocks": 0.1664, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1275, "assist_rate": 0.1275, "expected_goals": 0.0476, "expected_assists": 0.1455, "shots_on_target": 0.1632, "big_chances_created": 0.2395, "xgot": 0.0083, "ball_carries": 17.5003, "total_progression": 75.2024, "progressive_carries": 0.8595, "key_pass": 1.4017, "shots_off_target": 1.072 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 910000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0054)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8564, "tackles": 1.5508, "tackles_won": 0.9977, "clearances": 2.788, "aerial_won": 1.0705, "total_shots": 1.2413, "rating": 7.0429, "minutes": 77.9, "total_pass": 56.1253, "accurate_pass": 51.0319, "duels_won": 3.558, "total_long_balls": 3.9472, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2671, "total_own_half_passes": 23.3761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3286, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.7493, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7034, "crosses_total": 2.9186, "crosses_accurate": 0.6612, "touches": 76.5457, "possession_lost": 9.3908, "dispossessed": 0.1933, "duels_lost": 1.6605, "aerial_lost": 0.5476, "total_contest": 0.4128, "won_contest": 0.19, "ball_recovery": 5.1219, "challenges_lost": 0.2622, "fouls": 0.661, "fouls_drawn": 0.4754, "blocks": 0.1664, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1268, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "expected_goals": 0.0476, "expected_assists": 0.1455, "shots_on_target": 0.1623, "big_chances_created": 0.2395, "xgot": 0.0083, "ball_carries": 17.5003, "total_progression": 75.2024, "progressive_carries": 0.8595, "key_pass": 1.4017, "shots_off_target": 1.072 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0054, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8656, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2353, "after": 1.2413 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0031, "after": 0.9977 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.656, "after": 0.661 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8564, "tackles": 1.5508, "tackles_won": 0.9977, "clearances": 2.788, "aerial_won": 1.0705, "total_shots": 1.2413, "rating": 7.0429, "minutes": 77.9, "total_pass": 56.1253, "accurate_pass": 51.0319, "duels_won": 3.558, "total_long_balls": 3.9472, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2671, "total_own_half_passes": 23.3761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3286, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.7493, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7034, "crosses_total": 2.9186, "crosses_accurate": 0.6612, "touches": 76.5457, "possession_lost": 9.3908, "dispossessed": 0.1933, "duels_lost": 1.6605, "aerial_lost": 0.5476, "total_contest": 0.4128, "won_contest": 0.19, "ball_recovery": 5.1219, "challenges_lost": 0.2622, "fouls": 0.661, "fouls_drawn": 0.4754, "blocks": 0.1664, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1268, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "expected_goals": 0.0476, "expected_assists": 0.1455, "shots_on_target": 0.1623, "big_chances_created": 0.2395, "xgot": 0.0083, "ball_carries": 17.5003, "total_progression": 75.2024, "progressive_carries": 0.8595, "key_pass": 1.4017, "shots_off_target": 1.072 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8564, "tackles": 1.5508, "tackles_won": 0.9977, "clearances": 2.788, "aerial_won": 1.0705, "total_shots": 1.2413, "rating": 7.0429, "minutes": 77.9, "total_pass": 56.1253, "accurate_pass": 51.0319, "duels_won": 3.558, "total_long_balls": 3.9472, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2671, "total_own_half_passes": 23.3761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3286, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.7493, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7034, "crosses_total": 2.9186, "crosses_accurate": 0.6612, "touches": 76.5457, "possession_lost": 9.3908, "dispossessed": 0.1933, "duels_lost": 1.6605, "aerial_lost": 0.5476, "total_contest": 0.4128, "won_contest": 0.19, "ball_recovery": 5.1219, "challenges_lost": 0.2622, "fouls": 0.661, "fouls_drawn": 0.4754, "blocks": 0.1664, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1268, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "expected_goals": 0.0476, "expected_assists": 0.1455, "shots_on_target": 0.1623, "big_chances_created": 0.2395, "xgot": 0.0083, "ball_carries": 17.5003, "total_progression": 75.2024, "progressive_carries": 0.8595, "key_pass": 1.4017, "shots_off_target": 1.072, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.517, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8564, "tackles": 1.5508, "tackles_won": 0.9977, "clearances": 2.788, "aerial_won": 1.0705, "total_shots": 1.2413, "rating": 7.0429, "minutes": 77.9, "total_pass": 56.1253, "accurate_pass": 51.0319, "duels_won": 3.558, "total_long_balls": 3.9472, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2671, "total_own_half_passes": 23.3761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3286, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.7493, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7034, "crosses_total": 2.9186, "crosses_accurate": 0.6612, "touches": 76.5457, "possession_lost": 9.3908, "dispossessed": 0.1933, "duels_lost": 1.6605, "aerial_lost": 0.5476, "total_contest": 0.4128, "won_contest": 0.19, "ball_recovery": 5.1219, "challenges_lost": 0.2622, "fouls": 0.661, "fouls_drawn": 0.4754, "blocks": 0.1664, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0476, "expected_assists": 0.1455, "shots_on_target": 0.1623, "big_chances_created": 0.2395, "xgot": 0.0083, "ball_carries": 17.5003, "total_progression": 75.2024, "progressive_carries": 0.8595, "key_pass": 1.4017, "shots_off_target": 1.072, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.517, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9363, xG scale 1.4183, xA scale 1.2583, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8564, "tackles": 1.5508, "tackles_won": 0.9977, "clearances": 2.788, "aerial_won": 1.0705, "total_shots": 1.2413, "rating": 7.0429, "minutes": 77.9, "total_pass": 56.1253, "accurate_pass": 51.0319, "duels_won": 3.558, "total_long_balls": 3.9472, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2671, "total_own_half_passes": 23.3761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3286, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.7493, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7034, "crosses_total": 2.9186, "crosses_accurate": 0.6612, "touches": 76.5457, "possession_lost": 9.3908, "dispossessed": 0.1933, "duels_lost": 1.6605, "aerial_lost": 0.5476, "total_contest": 0.4128, "won_contest": 0.19, "ball_recovery": 5.1219, "challenges_lost": 0.2622, "fouls": 0.661, "fouls_drawn": 0.4754, "blocks": 0.1664, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "expected_assists": 0.1831, "shots_on_target": 0.1623, "big_chances_created": 0.2395, "xgot": 0.0118, "ball_carries": 17.5003, "total_progression": 75.2024, "progressive_carries": 0.8595, "key_pass": 1.4017, "shots_off_target": 1.072, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.517, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9043 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.328, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9363, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 1.0624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4183, "xa_scale": 1.2583, "opponent_lambda": 1.656, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0476, "after": 0.0675 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1455, "after": 0.1831 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8564, "tackles": 1.5508, "tackles_won": 0.9977, "clearances": 2.788, "aerial_won": 1.0705, "total_shots": 1.2413, "rating": 7.0429, "minutes": 77.9, "total_pass": 56.1253, "accurate_pass": 51.0319, "duels_won": 3.558, "total_long_balls": 3.9472, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2671, "total_own_half_passes": 23.3761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3286, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.7493, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7034, "crosses_total": 2.9186, "crosses_accurate": 0.6612, "touches": 76.5457, "possession_lost": 9.3908, "dispossessed": 0.1933, "duels_lost": 1.6605, "aerial_lost": 0.5476, "total_contest": 0.4128, "won_contest": 0.19, "ball_recovery": 5.1219, "challenges_lost": 0.2622, "fouls": 0.661, "fouls_drawn": 0.4754, "blocks": 0.1664, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "expected_assists": 0.1831, "shots_on_target": 0.1623, "big_chances_created": 0.2395, "xgot": 0.0118, "ball_carries": 17.5003, "total_progression": 75.2024, "progressive_carries": 0.8595, "key_pass": 1.4017, "shots_off_target": 1.072, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.517, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9043, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1551, "fifa_rank": 943.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8564, "tackles": 1.5508, "tackles_won": 0.9977, "clearances": 2.788, "aerial_won": 1.0705, "total_shots": 1.2413, "rating": 7.0429, "minutes": 77.9, "total_pass": 56.1253, "accurate_pass": 51.0319, "duels_won": 3.558, "total_long_balls": 3.9472, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2671, "total_own_half_passes": 23.3761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3286, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.7493, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7034, "crosses_total": 2.9186, "crosses_accurate": 0.6612, "touches": 76.5457, "possession_lost": 9.3908, "dispossessed": 0.1933, "duels_lost": 1.6605, "aerial_lost": 0.5476, "total_contest": 0.4128, "won_contest": 0.19, "ball_recovery": 5.1219, "challenges_lost": 0.2622, "fouls": 0.661, "fouls_drawn": 0.4754, "blocks": 0.1664, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "expected_assists": 0.1831, "shots_on_target": 0.1623, "big_chances_created": 0.2395, "xgot": 0.0118, "ball_carries": 17.5003, "total_progression": 75.2024, "progressive_carries": 0.8595, "key_pass": 1.4017, "shots_off_target": 1.072, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.517, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0653, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9043, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.054, "squad_weight_total": 1.4267, "weight_share": 0.0378, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oihan Sancet", "weight": 0.4974, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4974, "runner_up": "Robert Navarro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2739 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8564, "tackles": 1.5508, "tackles_won": 0.9977, "clearances": 2.788, "aerial_won": 1.0705, "total_shots": 1.2413, "rating": 7.0429, "minutes": 77.9, "total_pass": 56.1253, "accurate_pass": 51.0319, "duels_won": 3.558, "total_long_balls": 3.9472, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2671, "total_own_half_passes": 23.3761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3286, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.7493, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7034, "crosses_total": 2.9186, "crosses_accurate": 0.6612, "touches": 76.5457, "possession_lost": 9.3908, "dispossessed": 0.1933, "duels_lost": 1.6605, "aerial_lost": 0.5476, "total_contest": 0.4128, "won_contest": 0.19, "ball_recovery": 5.1219, "challenges_lost": 0.2622, "fouls": 0.661, "fouls_drawn": 0.4754, "blocks": 0.1664, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "expected_assists": 0.1831, "shots_on_target": 0.1623, "big_chances_created": 0.2395, "xgot": 0.0118, "ball_carries": 17.5003, "total_progression": 75.2024, "progressive_carries": 0.8595, "key_pass": 1.4017, "shots_off_target": 1.072, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.517, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — 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"name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.054 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0211, "total": 0.5064, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054031 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.025231 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.019489 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013601 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011593 } ], "others_margin": -0.021126 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.039137840270996, "model_output": 7.0391, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0727 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0654 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.063 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0093 } ], "others": 0.0045, "total": 7.0391, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.072736 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.065379 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.063008 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025437 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.009252 } ], "others_margin": 0.004543 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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}, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.911, "tackles": 1.2728, "tackles_won": 0.8292, "clearances": 4.4769, "aerial_won": 1.7143, "total_shots": 0.5105, "rating": 7.0391, "minutes": 85.47, "total_pass": 70.9871, "accurate_pass": 65.7178, "duels_won": 3.3629, "total_long_balls": 6.5677, "accurate_long_balls": 3.785, "total_own_half_passes": 41.4044, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.8085, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.5827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.9093, "crosses_total": 0.1877, "crosses_accurate": 0.0081, "touches": 80.544, "possession_lost": 5.7567, "dispossessed": 0.0026, "duels_lost": 2.6858, 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"importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2422 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1874 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.133 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1192 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0653 } ], "others": 0.0123, "total": 1.9985, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.162818 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109962 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.071304 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.059858 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032357 } ], "others_margin": 0.006219 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5963349938392639, "model_output": 0.5963, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": 0.0093, "total": 0.5963, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063764 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.03384 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015529 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.01266 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.011024 } ], "others_margin": 0.009326 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.90730619430542, "model_output": 6.9073, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0706 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": -0.049, "total": 6.9073, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.070636 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.048602 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.034771 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.018474 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.015026 } ], "others_margin": -0.048931 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 12, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9940, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1736, "tackles": 1.058, "tackles_won": 0.5787, "clearances": 4.7981, "aerial_won": 1.9865, "total_shots": 0.5928, "rating": 6.9073, "minutes": 81.22, "total_pass": 60.4667, "accurate_pass": 52.9713, "duels_won": 3.683, "total_long_balls": 7.4281, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3178, "total_own_half_passes": 32.8801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.8571, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5866, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1142, "crosses_total": 0.8649, "crosses_accurate": 0.1791, "touches": 72.4105, "possession_lost": 9.1045, "dispossessed": 0.179, "duels_lost": 2.6419, "aerial_lost": 1.7788, "total_contest": 0.5247, "won_contest": 0.3738, "ball_recovery": 4.6022, "challenges_lost": 0.3722, "fouls": 0.3547, "fouls_drawn": 0.6635, "blocks": 0.3256, "goals": 0.0, 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32.8801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.8571, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5866, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1142, "crosses_total": 0.8889, "crosses_accurate": 0.1791, "touches": 72.4105, "possession_lost": 9.1045, "dispossessed": 0.179, "duels_lost": 2.6419, "aerial_lost": 1.7788, "total_contest": 0.5247, "won_contest": 0.3738, "ball_recovery": 4.6022, "challenges_lost": 0.3722, "fouls": 0.3572, "fouls_drawn": 0.6581, "blocks": 0.3256, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1025, "assist_rate": 0.1025, "expected_goals": 0.0396, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0934, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.0131, "total_progression": 82.9366, "progressive_carries": 0.8235, "key_pass": 0.5499, "shots_off_target": 0.5927, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568, "opponent_faced": "Rubén García", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Rubén García", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1782, "tackles": 1.058, "tackles_won": 0.564, "clearances": 4.7981, "aerial_won": 1.9865, "total_shots": 0.6122, "rating": 6.9073, "minutes": 81.22, "total_pass": 60.4667, "accurate_pass": 52.9713, "duels_won": 3.683, "total_long_balls": 7.4281, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3178, "total_own_half_passes": 32.8801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.8571, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5866, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1142, "crosses_total": 0.8889, "crosses_accurate": 0.1791, "touches": 72.4105, "possession_lost": 9.1045, "dispossessed": 0.179, "duels_lost": 2.6419, "aerial_lost": 1.7788, "total_contest": 0.5247, "won_contest": 0.3738, "ball_recovery": 4.6022, "challenges_lost": 0.3722, "fouls": 0.3572, "fouls_drawn": 0.6581, "blocks": 0.3256, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1025, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0396, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0934, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.0131, "total_progression": 82.9366, "progressive_carries": 0.8235, "key_pass": 0.5499, "shots_off_target": 0.5927, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568, "opponent_faced": "Rubén García", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9363, xG scale 1.4183, xA scale 1.2583, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1782, "tackles": 1.058, "tackles_won": 0.564, "clearances": 4.7981, "aerial_won": 1.9865, "total_shots": 0.6122, "rating": 6.9073, "minutes": 81.22, "total_pass": 60.4667, "accurate_pass": 52.9713, "duels_won": 3.683, "total_long_balls": 7.4281, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3178, "total_own_half_passes": 32.8801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.8571, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5866, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1142, "crosses_total": 0.8889, "crosses_accurate": 0.1791, "touches": 72.4105, "possession_lost": 9.1045, "dispossessed": 0.179, "duels_lost": 2.6419, "aerial_lost": 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"others_margin": -0.020019 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.1298671960830688, "model_output": 1.1299, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.373 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1402 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0906 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0268 } ], "others": -0.0425, "total": 1.1299, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.317907 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131604 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.07665 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.023339 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.022592 } ], "others_margin": -0.036909 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.510990560054779, "model_output": 0.511, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.059 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": -0.026, "total": 0.511, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 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"margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021891 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019232 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.012867 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008547 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.008427 } ], "others_margin": -0.004289 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0044, quality 0.613)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0474, "tackles": 1.5899, "tackles_won": 1.0196, "clearances": 4.0604, "aerial_won": 1.1348, "total_shots": 0.5132, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 79.37, "total_pass": 43.3838, "accurate_pass": 38.0496, "duels_won": 3.3404, "total_long_balls": 4.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1932, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.34, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7097, "crosses_total": 0.4814, "crosses_accurate": 0.1495, "touches": 55.6108, "possession_lost": 7.2563, "dispossessed": 0.3483, "duels_lost": 3.4693, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.1411, "won_contest": 0.1375, "ball_recovery": 4.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.8325, "fouls": 1.1082, "fouls_drawn": 0.5968, "blocks": 0.2611, "goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.0578, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "shots_on_target": 0.2096, "big_chances_created": 0.0804, "xgot": 0.0755, "ball_carries": 14.0023, "total_progression": 64.5172, "progressive_carries": 0.6421, "key_pass": 0.1667, "shots_off_target": 0.3036 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18200000, "quality_factor": 0.613, "boost_factor": 1.0044, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0474, "tackles": 1.5899, "tackles_won": 1.0196, "clearances": 4.0604, "aerial_won": 1.1348, "total_shots": 0.5132, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 79.37, "total_pass": 43.3838, "accurate_pass": 38.0496, "duels_won": 3.3404, "total_long_balls": 4.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1932, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.34, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7097, "crosses_total": 0.4814, "crosses_accurate": 0.1495, "touches": 55.6108, "possession_lost": 7.2563, "dispossessed": 0.3483, "duels_lost": 3.4693, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.1411, "won_contest": 0.1375, "ball_recovery": 4.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.8325, "fouls": 1.1082, "fouls_drawn": 0.5968, "blocks": 0.2611, "goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.0578, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "shots_on_target": 0.2096, "big_chances_created": 0.0804, "xgot": 0.0755, "ball_carries": 14.0023, "total_progression": 64.5172, "progressive_carries": 0.6421, "key_pass": 0.1667, "shots_off_target": 0.3036 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0474, "tackles": 1.5899, "tackles_won": 1.0196, "clearances": 4.0604, "aerial_won": 1.1348, "total_shots": 0.5132, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 79.37, "total_pass": 43.3838, "accurate_pass": 38.0496, "duels_won": 3.3404, "total_long_balls": 4.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1932, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.34, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7097, "crosses_total": 0.4814, "crosses_accurate": 0.1495, "touches": 55.6108, "possession_lost": 7.2563, "dispossessed": 0.3483, "duels_lost": 3.4693, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.1411, "won_contest": 0.1375, "ball_recovery": 4.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.8325, "fouls": 1.1082, "fouls_drawn": 0.5968, "blocks": 0.2611, "goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.0578, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "shots_on_target": 0.2096, "big_chances_created": 0.0804, "xgot": 0.0755, "ball_carries": 14.0023, "total_progression": 64.5172, "progressive_carries": 0.6421, "key_pass": 0.1667, "shots_off_target": 0.3036, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0474, "tackles": 1.5899, "tackles_won": 1.0196, "clearances": 4.0604, "aerial_won": 1.1348, "total_shots": 0.5132, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 79.37, "total_pass": 43.3838, "accurate_pass": 38.0496, "duels_won": 3.3404, "total_long_balls": 4.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1932, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.34, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7097, "crosses_total": 0.4814, "crosses_accurate": 0.1495, "touches": 55.6108, "possession_lost": 7.2563, "dispossessed": 0.3483, "duels_lost": 3.4693, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.1411, "won_contest": 0.1375, "ball_recovery": 4.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.8325, "fouls": 1.1082, "fouls_drawn": 0.5968, "blocks": 0.2611, "goal_rate": 0.0578, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "shots_on_target": 0.2096, "big_chances_created": 0.0804, "xgot": 0.0755, "ball_carries": 14.0023, "total_progression": 64.5172, "progressive_carries": 0.6421, "key_pass": 0.1667, "shots_off_target": 0.3036, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9363, xG scale 1.4183, xA scale 1.2583, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0474, "tackles": 1.5899, "tackles_won": 1.0196, "clearances": 4.0604, "aerial_won": 1.1348, "total_shots": 0.5132, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 79.37, "total_pass": 43.3838, "accurate_pass": 38.0496, "duels_won": 3.3404, "total_long_balls": 4.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1932, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.34, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7097, "crosses_total": 0.4814, "crosses_accurate": 0.1495, "touches": 55.6108, "possession_lost": 7.2563, "dispossessed": 0.3483, "duels_lost": 3.4693, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.1411, "won_contest": 0.1375, "ball_recovery": 4.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.8325, "fouls": 1.1082, "fouls_drawn": 0.5968, "blocks": 0.2611, "goal_rate": 0.0578, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "shots_on_target": 0.2096, "big_chances_created": 0.0804, "xgot": 0.1071, "ball_carries": 14.0023, "total_progression": 64.5172, "progressive_carries": 0.6421, "key_pass": 0.1667, "shots_off_target": 0.3036, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.328, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9363, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 1.0624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4183, "xa_scale": 1.2583, "opponent_lambda": 1.656, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0239, "after": 0.0339 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0281, "after": 0.0354 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0474, "tackles": 1.5899, "tackles_won": 1.0196, "clearances": 4.0604, "aerial_won": 1.1348, "total_shots": 0.5132, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 79.37, "total_pass": 43.3838, "accurate_pass": 38.0496, "duels_won": 3.3404, "total_long_balls": 4.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1932, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.34, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7097, "crosses_total": 0.4814, "crosses_accurate": 0.1495, "touches": 55.6108, "possession_lost": 7.2563, "dispossessed": 0.3483, "duels_lost": 3.4693, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.1411, "won_contest": 0.1375, "ball_recovery": 4.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.8325, "fouls": 1.1082, "fouls_drawn": 0.5968, "blocks": 0.2611, "goal_rate": 0.0578, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "shots_on_target": 0.2096, "big_chances_created": 0.0804, "xgot": 0.1071, "ball_carries": 14.0023, "total_progression": 64.5172, "progressive_carries": 0.6421, "key_pass": 0.1667, "shots_off_target": 0.3036, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2014, "fifa_rank": 1110.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0474, "tackles": 1.5899, "tackles_won": 1.0196, "clearances": 4.0604, "aerial_won": 1.1348, "total_shots": 0.5132, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 79.37, "total_pass": 43.3838, "accurate_pass": 38.0496, "duels_won": 3.3404, "total_long_balls": 4.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1932, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.34, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7097, "crosses_total": 0.4814, "crosses_accurate": 0.1495, "touches": 55.6108, "possession_lost": 7.2563, "dispossessed": 0.3483, "duels_lost": 3.4693, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.1411, "won_contest": 0.1375, "ball_recovery": 4.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.8325, "fouls": 1.1082, "fouls_drawn": 0.5968, "blocks": 0.2611, "goal_rate": 0.0578, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "shots_on_target": 0.2096, "big_chances_created": 0.0804, "xgot": 0.1071, "ball_carries": 14.0023, "total_progression": 64.5172, "progressive_carries": 0.6421, "key_pass": 0.1667, "shots_off_target": 0.3036, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0333, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0578, "scorer_weight": 0.0424, "squad_weight_total": 1.4267, "weight_share": 0.0297, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oihan Sancet", "weight": 0.4974, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4974, "runner_up": "Robert Navarro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2739 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0474, "tackles": 1.5899, "tackles_won": 1.0196, "clearances": 4.0604, "aerial_won": 1.1348, "total_shots": 0.5132, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 79.37, "total_pass": 43.3838, "accurate_pass": 38.0496, "duels_won": 3.3404, "total_long_balls": 4.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1932, 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"pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0333, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0348, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0348, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0283, "squad_weight_total": 1.0061, "weight_share": 0.0281, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yuri Berchiche", "weight": 0.1656, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1656, "runner_up": "Robert Navarro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1454, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Oihan Sancet" ] } ] } } ] }, "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta": { "player_id": 96365, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 174, "market_value": 1800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1327, "assist_rate": 0.1057, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.0638, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0595, "minutes": 64, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 37, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 9.1403, "dispossessed": 0.8563, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 47, 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false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.105246 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.039133 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.027414 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021735 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020279 } ], "others_margin": -0.011734 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3673, "expected_assists": 0.1055, "assists": 0.1028, "assist_rate": 0.1028, "expected_goals": 0.065, "goals": 0.0651, "goal_rate": 0.0651, "shots_on_target": 0.2538, "total_shots": 0.8901, "rating": 7.0595, "minutes": 64.42, "total_pass": 42.6592, "accurate_pass": 36.808, "duels_won": 3.7932, "total_long_balls": 4.4315, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9198, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8642, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1413, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6667, "crosses_total": 1.7793, "crosses_accurate": 0.4106, "touches": 54.5551, "possession_lost": 9.1403, "dispossessed": 0.8563, "duels_lost": 3.8208, "aerial_won": 0.9703, "aerial_lost": 0.5539, "interceptions": 1.0384, "tackles_won": 0.7044, "tackles": 1.1799, "clearances": 0.3896, "total_contest": 1.1681, "won_contest": 0.7856, "challenges_lost": 0.549, "fouls": 1.5193, "fouls_drawn": 0.8574, "blocks": 0.1843, "big_chances_created": 0.1669, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 15.3455, "total_progression": 46.8407, "progressive_carries": 0.4254, "shots_off_target": 0.6363 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0037)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3673, "expected_assists": 0.1055, "assists": 0.1057, "assist_rate": 0.1057, "expected_goals": 0.065, "goals": 0.0649, "goal_rate": 0.0649, "shots_on_target": 0.2529, "total_shots": 0.8901, "rating": 7.0595, "minutes": 64.42, "total_pass": 42.6592, "accurate_pass": 36.808, "duels_won": 3.7932, "total_long_balls": 4.4315, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9198, 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0.549, "fouls": 1.5269, "fouls_drawn": 0.8575, "blocks": 0.1843, "big_chances_created": 0.1669, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0042, "ball_carries": 15.3455, "total_progression": 46.8407, "progressive_carries": 0.4254, "shots_off_target": 0.6363 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3673, "expected_assists": 0.1055, "assists": 0.1057, "assist_rate": 0.1057, "expected_goals": 0.0639, "goals": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.0638, "shots_on_target": 0.2484, "total_shots": 0.8744, "rating": 7.0595, "minutes": 64.42, "total_pass": 42.6592, "accurate_pass": 36.808, "duels_won": 3.7932, "total_long_balls": 4.4315, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9198, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8642, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1413, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6667, "crosses_total": 1.7793, 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"duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Valentin Rosier", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9824, "skill_edge": -0.008, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4551, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Valentin Rosier", "market_value": 3100000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4551 } ], "xg_override": 0.0639 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.9703, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8901, "after": 0.8744 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6363, "after": 0.6251 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3673, "expected_assists": 0.1055, "assist_rate": 0.1057, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0639, "goal_rate": 0.0638, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2484, "total_shots": 0.8744, "rating": 7.0595, "minutes": 64.42, "total_pass": 42.6592, "accurate_pass": 36.808, "duels_won": 3.7932, "total_long_balls": 4.4315, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9198, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8642, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1413, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6667, "crosses_total": 1.7793, "crosses_accurate": 0.4106, "touches": 54.5551, "possession_lost": 9.1403, "dispossessed": 0.8563, "duels_lost": 3.8208, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5539, "interceptions": 1.0379, "tackles_won": 0.7051, "tackles": 1.1799, "clearances": 0.3896, "total_contest": 1.1681, "won_contest": 0.7856, "challenges_lost": 0.549, "fouls": 1.5269, "fouls_drawn": 0.8575, "blocks": 0.1843, "big_chances_created": 0.1669, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0041, "ball_carries": 15.3455, 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0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.0638, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2484, "total_shots": 0.8744, "rating": 7.0595, "minutes": 64.42, "total_pass": 42.6592, "accurate_pass": 36.808, "duels_won": 3.7932, "total_long_balls": 4.4315, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9198, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8642, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1413, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6667, "crosses_total": 1.7793, "crosses_accurate": 0.4106, "touches": 54.5551, "possession_lost": 9.1403, "dispossessed": 0.8563, "duels_lost": 3.8208, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5539, "interceptions": 1.0379, "tackles_won": 0.7051, "tackles": 1.1799, "clearances": 0.3896, "total_contest": 1.1681, "won_contest": 0.7856, "challenges_lost": 0.549, "fouls": 1.5269, "fouls_drawn": 0.8575, "blocks": 0.1843, "big_chances_created": 0.1669, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 15.3455, "total_progression": 46.8407, "progressive_carries": 0.4254, "shots_off_target": 0.6251, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9824, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Valentin Rosier", "opponent_faced": "Valentin Rosier", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9991, "creation_factor": 1.0013 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.328, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9363, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 1.0624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4183, "xa_scale": 1.2583, "opponent_lambda": 1.656, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0639, "after": 0.0906 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1055, "after": 0.1327 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3673, "expected_assists": 0.1327, "assist_rate": 0.1057, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.0638, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2484, "total_shots": 0.8744, "rating": 7.0595, "minutes": 64.42, "total_pass": 42.6592, "accurate_pass": 36.808, "duels_won": 3.7932, "total_long_balls": 4.4315, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9198, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8642, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1413, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6667, "crosses_total": 1.7793, "crosses_accurate": 0.4106, "touches": 54.5551, "possession_lost": 9.1403, "dispossessed": 0.8563, "duels_lost": 3.8208, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5539, "interceptions": 1.0379, "tackles_won": 0.7051, "tackles": 1.1799, "clearances": 0.3896, "total_contest": 1.1681, "won_contest": 0.7856, "challenges_lost": 0.549, "fouls": 1.5269, "fouls_drawn": 0.8575, "blocks": 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"fifa_rank": 429.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3673, "expected_assists": 0.1327, "assist_rate": 0.1057, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goal_rate": 0.0638, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2484, "total_shots": 0.8744, "rating": 7.0595, "minutes": 64.42, "total_pass": 42.6592, "accurate_pass": 36.808, "duels_won": 3.7932, "total_long_balls": 4.4315, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9198, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8642, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1413, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6667, "crosses_total": 1.7793, "crosses_accurate": 0.4106, "touches": 54.5551, "possession_lost": 9.1403, "dispossessed": 0.8563, "duels_lost": 3.8208, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5539, "interceptions": 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true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.287134 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.20922 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135354 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.068626 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.067049 } ], "others_margin": 0.095577 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.067002773284912, "model_output": 2.067, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.629 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1844 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0902 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0814 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0552 } ], "others": 0.2047, "total": 2.067, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.628996 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.18441 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.090189 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.081385 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.055244 } ], "others_margin": 0.204614 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.932275772094727, "model_output": 6.9323, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.015 } ], "others": -0.0267, "total": 6.9323, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.043155 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.036711 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.023018 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016292 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.014963 } ], "others_margin": -0.026685 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3606, "expected_assists": 0.1399, "assists": 0.1325, "assist_rate": 0.1325, "expected_goals": 0.2466, "goals": 0.3007, "goal_rate": 0.3007, "shots_on_target": 0.7582, "total_shots": 2.0801, "rating": 6.9323, "minutes": 81.17, "total_pass": 25.047, "accurate_pass": 19.8835, "duels_won": 4.3502, "total_long_balls": 1.2361, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8051, "total_own_half_passes": 6.234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3791, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.813, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5045, "crosses_total": 0.6201, "crosses_accurate": 0.0555, "touches": 39.5679, "possession_lost": 11.2739, "dispossessed": 1.8572, "duels_lost": 4.4778, "aerial_won": 0.7062, "aerial_lost": 0.9065, "interceptions": 0.2163, "tackles_won": 0.4745, "tackles": 0.7596, "clearances": 0.0767, "total_contest": 2.2995, "won_contest": 1.3935, "challenges_lost": 0.2503, "fouls": 0.6682, "fouls_drawn": 1.491, "blocks": 0.0093, "big_chances_created": 0.1546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4451, "xgot": 0.2451, "ball_carries": 12.8931, "total_progression": 47.5026, "progressive_carries": 2.2712, "shots_off_target": 1.3219 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0063, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0150)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3606, "expected_assists": 0.1399, "assists": 0.1305, "assist_rate": 0.1305, "expected_goals": 0.2466, "goals": 0.2962, "goal_rate": 0.2962, "shots_on_target": 0.7618, "total_shots": 2.0888, "rating": 6.9323, "minutes": 81.17, "total_pass": 25.047, "accurate_pass": 19.8835, "duels_won": 4.3502, "total_long_balls": 1.2361, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8051, "total_own_half_passes": 6.234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3791, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.813, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5045, "crosses_total": 0.6208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0555, "touches": 39.5679, "possession_lost": 11.2739, "dispossessed": 1.8572, "duels_lost": 4.4778, "aerial_won": 0.7062, "aerial_lost": 0.9065, "interceptions": 0.2231, "tackles_won": 0.4724, "tackles": 0.7596, "clearances": 0.0767, "total_contest": 2.2995, "won_contest": 1.3935, "challenges_lost": 0.2503, "fouls": 0.6632, "fouls_drawn": 1.4887, "blocks": 0.0093, "big_chances_created": 0.1546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4451, "xgot": 0.2451, "ball_carries": 12.8931, "total_progression": 47.5026, "progressive_carries": 2.2712, "shots_off_target": 1.3219 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.015, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9019, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", 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0.2231, "tackles_won": 0.4724, "tackles": 0.7596, "clearances": 0.0767, "total_contest": 2.2995, "won_contest": 1.3935, "challenges_lost": 0.2503, "fouls": 0.6632, "fouls_drawn": 1.4887, "blocks": 0.0093, "big_chances_created": 0.1546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4451, "xgot": 0.2451, "ball_carries": 12.8931, "total_progression": 47.5026, "progressive_carries": 2.2712, "shots_off_target": 1.3219 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3606, "expected_assists": 0.1399, "assists": 0.1305, "assist_rate": 0.1305, "expected_goals": 0.2992, "goals": 0.3593, "goal_rate": 0.3593, "shots_on_target": 0.9241, "total_shots": 2.5339, "rating": 6.9323, "minutes": 81.17, "total_pass": 25.047, "accurate_pass": 19.8835, "duels_won": 4.3502, "total_long_balls": 1.2361, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8051, "total_own_half_passes": 6.234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3791, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.813, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5045, "crosses_total": 0.6208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0555, "touches": 39.5679, "possession_lost": 11.2739, "dispossessed": 1.8572, "duels_lost": 4.4778, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9065, "interceptions": 0.2231, "tackles_won": 0.4724, "tackles": 0.7596, "clearances": 0.0767, "total_contest": 2.2995, "won_contest": 1.3935, "challenges_lost": 0.2503, "fouls": 0.6632, "fouls_drawn": 1.4887, "blocks": 0.0093, "big_chances_created": 0.1546, "big_chances_missed": 0.54, "xgot": 0.2973, "ball_carries": 12.8931, "total_progression": 47.5026, "progressive_carries": 2.2712, "shots_off_target": 1.6036, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2131, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.605, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iker Muñoz", "opponent_faced": "Iker Muñoz", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iker Muñoz", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.605, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2131, "skill_edge": 0.109, "height_edge": 0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.6796, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Iker Muñoz", "market_value": 1800000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.2992 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7062, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0888, "after": 2.5339 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3219, "after": 1.6036 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7618, "after": 0.9241 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", 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0.0555, "touches": 39.5679, "possession_lost": 11.2739, "dispossessed": 1.8572, "duels_lost": 4.4778, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9065, "interceptions": 0.2231, "tackles_won": 0.4724, "tackles": 0.7596, "clearances": 0.0767, "total_contest": 2.2995, "won_contest": 1.3935, "challenges_lost": 0.2503, "fouls": 0.6632, "fouls_drawn": 1.4887, "blocks": 0.0093, "big_chances_created": 0.1546, "big_chances_missed": 0.54, "xgot": 0.2973, "ball_carries": 12.8931, "total_progression": 47.5026, "progressive_carries": 2.2712, "shots_off_target": 1.6036, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2131, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.605, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iker Muñoz", "opponent_faced": "Iker Muñoz", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9363, xG scale 1.4183, xA scale 1.2583, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3606, "expected_assists": 0.176, "assist_rate": 0.1305, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4244, "goal_rate": 0.3593, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9241, "total_shots": 2.5339, "rating": 6.9323, "minutes": 81.17, "total_pass": 25.047, "accurate_pass": 19.8835, "duels_won": 4.3502, "total_long_balls": 1.2361, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8051, "total_own_half_passes": 6.234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3791, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.813, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5045, "crosses_total": 0.6208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0555, "touches": 39.5679, "possession_lost": 11.2739, "dispossessed": 1.8572, 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-0.202912 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.13797421753406525, "model_output": 0.138, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0953 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0408 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": -0.027, "total": 0.138, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.356191 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.202203 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.139371 }, { "name": 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6.8144, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035656 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030047 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01261 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.008304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006663 } ], "others_margin": -0.026426 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9950, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4838, "expected_assists": 0.0444, "assists": 0.0618, "assist_rate": 0.0618, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.1373, "total_shots": 0.4606, "rating": 6.8144, "minutes": 79.49, "total_pass": 36.1005, "accurate_pass": 30.0421, "duels_won": 4.6298, "total_long_balls": 2.2925, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3854, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3314, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1111, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.931, "crosses_total": 0.9188, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.9049, "possession_lost": 8.733, "dispossessed": 0.1648, "duels_lost": 3.6905, "aerial_won": 0.6976, "aerial_lost": 0.2683, "interceptions": 1.8932, "tackles_won": 1.6337, "tackles": 2.5289, "clearances": 0.6269, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.4802, "fouls": 2.2103, "fouls_drawn": 1.4033, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0095, "ball_carries": 9.9311, "total_progression": 37.2538, "progressive_carries": 0.4561, "shots_off_target": 0.3233 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0379)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4838, "expected_assists": 0.0444, "assists": 0.0595, "assist_rate": 0.0595, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goals": 0.0436, "goal_rate": 0.0436, "shots_on_target": 0.1478, "total_shots": 0.4589, "rating": 6.8144, "minutes": 79.49, "total_pass": 36.1005, "accurate_pass": 30.0421, "duels_won": 4.6298, "total_long_balls": 2.2925, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3854, 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36.1005, "accurate_pass": 30.0421, "duels_won": 4.6298, "total_long_balls": 2.2925, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3854, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3314, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1111, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.931, "crosses_total": 0.9796, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.9049, "possession_lost": 8.733, "dispossessed": 0.1648, "duels_lost": 3.6905, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2683, "interceptions": 1.933, "tackles_won": 1.6515, "tackles": 2.5289, "clearances": 0.6269, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.4802, "fouls": 2.2381, "fouls_drawn": 1.4139, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0088, "ball_carries": 9.9311, "total_progression": 37.2538, "progressive_carries": 0.4561, "shots_off_target": 0.301, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9311, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.353, "pressing_faced": "LOW", 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.147266 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.042709 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.033399 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.030929 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.017824 } ], "others_margin": -0.048854 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8175554275512695, "model_output": 6.8176, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0057, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assists": 0.0564, "assist_rate": 0.0564, "expected_goals": 0.0686, "goals": 0.0557, "goal_rate": 0.0557, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.964, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.437, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.65, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0022, "tackles_won": 1.1579, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 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1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.65, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0078, "tackles_won": 1.1557, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 0.5219, "total_contest": 0.8587, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.7095, "fouls": 1.7446, "fouls_drawn": 0.5823, "blocks": 0.0439, "big_chances_created": 0.0011, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0481, "ball_carries": 10.47, "total_progression": 27.8801, "progressive_carries": 0.3543, "shots_off_target": 0.6842 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.005, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7826, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.437, "after": 1.4299 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0022, "after": 1.0078 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assists": 0.0561, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "expected_goals": 0.0686, "goals": 0.0554, "goal_rate": 0.0554, "shots_on_target": 0.2784, "total_shots": 0.9626, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.65, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0078, "tackles_won": 1.1557, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 0.5219, "total_contest": 0.8587, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.7095, "fouls": 1.7446, "fouls_drawn": 0.5823, "blocks": 0.0439, "big_chances_created": 0.0011, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0481, "ball_carries": 10.47, "total_progression": 27.8801, "progressive_carries": 0.3543, "shots_off_target": 0.6842 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assists": 0.0561, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "shots_on_target": 0.3111, "total_shots": 1.0756, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0078, "tackles_won": 1.1557, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 0.5219, "total_contest": 0.8587, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.7095, "fouls": 1.7446, "fouls_drawn": 0.5823, "blocks": 0.0439, "big_chances_created": 0.0011, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 10.47, "total_progression": 27.8801, "progressive_carries": 0.3543, "shots_off_target": 0.7645, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1174, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Moncayola", "opponent_faced": "Jon Moncayola", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jon Moncayola", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1174, "skill_edge": 0.0999, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.7219, "defender_skill": 0.5, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jon Moncayola", "market_value": 7300000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.5 } ], "xg_override": 0.0767 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.65, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9626, "after": 1.0756 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6842, "after": 0.7645 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2784, "after": 0.3111 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0686, "after": 0.0767 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0554, "after": 0.0619 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0481, "after": 0.0537 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0531, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3111, "total_shots": 1.0756, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0078, "tackles_won": 1.1557, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 0.5219, "total_contest": 0.8587, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.7095, "fouls": 1.7446, "fouls_drawn": 0.5823, "blocks": 0.0439, "big_chances_created": 0.0011, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 10.47, "total_progression": 27.8801, "progressive_carries": 0.3543, "shots_off_target": 0.7645, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1174, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Moncayola", "opponent_faced": "Jon Moncayola", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9363, xG scale 1.4183, xA scale 1.2583, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1088, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3111, "total_shots": 1.0756, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0078, "tackles_won": 1.1557, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 0.5219, "total_contest": 0.8587, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.7095, "fouls": 1.7446, "fouls_drawn": 0.5823, "blocks": 0.0439, "big_chances_created": 0.0011, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0762, "ball_carries": 10.47, "total_progression": 27.8801, "progressive_carries": 0.3543, "shots_off_target": 0.7645, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1174, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Moncayola", "opponent_faced": "Jon Moncayola", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8832, "creation_factor": 1.0291 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.328, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9363, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 1.0624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4183, "xa_scale": 1.2583, "opponent_lambda": 1.656, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0767, "after": 0.1088 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0531, "after": 0.0668 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1088, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3111, "total_shots": 1.0756, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 1.0078, "tackles_won": 1.1557, "tackles": 1.8434, "clearances": 0.5219, "total_contest": 0.8587, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.7095, "fouls": 1.7446, "fouls_drawn": 0.5823, "blocks": 0.0439, "big_chances_created": 0.0011, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0762, "ball_carries": 10.47, "total_progression": 27.8801, "progressive_carries": 0.3543, "shots_off_target": 0.7645, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1174, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Moncayola", "opponent_faced": "Jon Moncayola", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8832, "creation_factor": 1.0291, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1561, "fifa_rank": 915.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1088, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3111, "total_shots": 1.0756, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1459, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.956, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0231, "crosses_total": 1.4299, "crosses_accurate": 0.3932, "touches": 44.5797, "possession_lost": 11.067, "dispossessed": 0.6663, "duels_lost": 4.6432, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8763, "interceptions": 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"team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1031, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "scorer_weight": 0.0961, "squad_weight_total": 1.4267, "weight_share": 0.0674, "finishing_factor": 0.8832, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oihan Sancet", "weight": 0.4974, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4974, "runner_up": "Robert Navarro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2739 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6349, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "assist_rate": 0.0561, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1088, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3111, "total_shots": 1.0756, "rating": 6.8176, "minutes": 70.43, "total_pass": 33.1104, "accurate_pass": 25.9789, "duels_won": 4.2425, "total_long_balls": 2.5565, 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0636 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0523 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 } ], "others": -0.0473, "total": 6.8996, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.063568 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.052317 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033793 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024018 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020409 } ], "others_margin": -0.04725 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0017, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.986, "expected_assists": 0.0789, "assists": 0.0835, "assist_rate": 0.0835, "expected_goals": 0.0708, "goals": 0.0828, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "shots_on_target": 0.2253, "total_shots": 0.6943, "rating": 6.8996, "minutes": 79.88, "total_pass": 42.3791, "accurate_pass": 36.8201, "duels_won": 3.283, "total_long_balls": 1.2419, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3143, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.6163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6704, "crosses_total": 1.3747, "crosses_accurate": 0.193, "touches": 53.6813, "possession_lost": 10.2367, "dispossessed": 0.9545, "duels_lost": 5.1062, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0688, "interceptions": 0.4943, "tackles_won": 1.0358, "tackles": 1.3501, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.346, "won_contest": 0.7722, "challenges_lost": 0.7345, "fouls": 0.7746, "fouls_drawn": 1.1607, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.193, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0171, "ball_carries": 19.7415, "total_progression": 66.4349, "progressive_carries": 1.668, "shots_off_target": 0.469 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9700000, "quality_factor": 0.5189, "boost_factor": 1.0017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0415)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.986, "expected_assists": 0.0789, "assists": 0.08, "assist_rate": 0.08, "expected_goals": 0.0708, "goals": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "shots_on_target": 0.248, "total_shots": 0.7137, "rating": 6.8996, "minutes": 79.88, "total_pass": 42.3791, "accurate_pass": 36.8201, "duels_won": 3.283, "total_long_balls": 1.2419, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3143, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.6163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6704, "crosses_total": 1.3817, "crosses_accurate": 0.193, "touches": 53.6813, "possession_lost": 10.2367, "dispossessed": 0.9545, "duels_lost": 5.1062, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0688, "interceptions": 0.4898, "tackles_won": 1.0248, "tackles": 1.3501, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.346, "won_contest": 0.7722, "challenges_lost": 0.7345, "fouls": 0.7585, "fouls_drawn": 1.1766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.193, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0171, "ball_carries": 19.7415, "total_progression": 66.4349, "progressive_carries": 1.668, "shots_off_target": 0.469 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0415, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8876, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2253, "after": 0.248 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6943, "after": 0.7137 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7746, "after": 0.7585 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1607, "after": 1.1766 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0358, "after": 1.0248 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.3747, "after": 1.3817 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.986, "expected_assists": 0.0789, "assists": 0.08, "assist_rate": 0.08, "expected_goals": 0.0708, "goals": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "shots_on_target": 0.248, "total_shots": 0.717, "rating": 6.8996, "minutes": 79.88, "total_pass": 42.3791, "accurate_pass": 36.8201, "duels_won": 3.283, "total_long_balls": 1.2419, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3143, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.6163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6704, "crosses_total": 1.3817, "crosses_accurate": 0.193, "touches": 53.6813, "possession_lost": 10.2367, "dispossessed": 0.9545, "duels_lost": 5.1062, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0688, "interceptions": 0.4898, "tackles_won": 1.0248, "tackles": 1.3501, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.346, "won_contest": 0.7722, "challenges_lost": 0.7345, "fouls": 0.7585, "fouls_drawn": 1.1766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.193, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0171, "ball_carries": 19.7415, "total_progression": 66.4349, "progressive_carries": 1.668, "shots_off_target": 0.469 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.986, "expected_assists": 0.0789, "assists": 0.08, "assist_rate": 0.08, "expected_goals": 0.0627, "goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "shots_on_target": 0.2195, "total_shots": 0.6346, "rating": 6.8996, "minutes": 79.88, "total_pass": 42.3791, "accurate_pass": 36.8201, "duels_won": 3.283, "total_long_balls": 1.2419, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3143, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.6163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6704, "crosses_total": 1.3817, "crosses_accurate": 0.193, "touches": 53.6813, "possession_lost": 10.2367, "dispossessed": 0.9545, "duels_lost": 5.1062, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0688, "interceptions": 0.4898, "tackles_won": 1.0248, "tackles": 1.3501, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.346, "won_contest": 0.7722, "challenges_lost": 0.7345, "fouls": 0.7585, "fouls_drawn": 1.1766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.193, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0151, "ball_carries": 19.7415, "total_progression": 66.4349, "progressive_carries": 1.668, "shots_off_target": 0.4151, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.885, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.885, "skill_edge": -0.0542, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.5189, "defender_skill": 0.6394, "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "market_value": 14600000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.6394 } ], "xg_override": 0.0627 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.717, "after": 0.6346 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.469, "after": 0.4151 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.248, "after": 0.2195 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0794, "after": 0.0703 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0708, "after": 0.0627 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.986, "expected_assists": 0.0789, "assist_rate": 0.08, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0627, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2195, "total_shots": 0.6346, "rating": 6.8996, "minutes": 79.88, "total_pass": 42.3791, "accurate_pass": 36.8201, "duels_won": 3.283, "total_long_balls": 1.2419, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3143, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.6163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6704, "crosses_total": 1.3817, "crosses_accurate": 0.193, "touches": 53.6813, "possession_lost": 10.2367, "dispossessed": 0.9545, "duels_lost": 5.1062, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0688, "interceptions": 0.4898, "tackles_won": 1.0248, "tackles": 1.3501, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.346, "won_contest": 0.7722, "challenges_lost": 0.7345, "fouls": 0.7585, "fouls_drawn": 1.1766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.193, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0151, "ball_carries": 19.7415, "total_progression": 66.4349, "progressive_carries": 1.668, "shots_off_target": 0.4151, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.885, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9363, xG scale 1.4183, xA scale 1.2583, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.986, "expected_assists": 0.0993, "assist_rate": 0.08, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0889, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2195, "total_shots": 0.6346, "rating": 6.8996, "minutes": 79.88, "total_pass": 42.3791, "accurate_pass": 36.8201, "duels_won": 3.283, "total_long_balls": 1.2419, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3143, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.6163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6704, "crosses_total": 1.3817, "crosses_accurate": 0.193, "touches": 53.6813, "possession_lost": 10.2367, "dispossessed": 0.9545, "duels_lost": 5.1062, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0688, "interceptions": 0.4898, "tackles_won": 1.0248, "tackles": 1.3501, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.346, "won_contest": 0.7722, "challenges_lost": 0.7345, "fouls": 0.7585, "fouls_drawn": 1.1766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.193, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0214, "ball_carries": 19.7415, "total_progression": 66.4349, "progressive_carries": 1.668, "shots_off_target": 0.4151, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.885, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0674, "creation_factor": 1.0085 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.328, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9363, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 1.0624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4183, "xa_scale": 1.2583, "opponent_lambda": 1.656, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0627, "after": 0.0889 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0789, "after": 0.0993 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.986, "expected_assists": 0.0993, "assist_rate": 0.08, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0889, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2195, "total_shots": 0.6346, "rating": 6.8996, "minutes": 79.88, "total_pass": 42.3791, "accurate_pass": 36.8201, "duels_won": 3.283, "total_long_balls": 1.2419, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3143, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1496, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.6163, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6704, "crosses_total": 1.3817, "crosses_accurate": 0.193, "touches": 53.6813, "possession_lost": 10.2367, "dispossessed": 0.9545, "duels_lost": 5.1062, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0688, "interceptions": 0.4898, "tackles_won": 1.0248, "tackles": 1.3501, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.346, "won_contest": 0.7722, "challenges_lost": 0.7345, "fouls": 0.7585, "fouls_drawn": 1.1766, "blocks": 0.0, 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"contribution": 0.1026 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.113 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.1244 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0891 } ], "others": 0.3896, "total": 1.7238, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.268923 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.107352 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.106322 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.105256 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.069128 } ], "others_margin": 0.256119 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.951694965362549, "model_output": 6.9517, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0592 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0409 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0185 } ], "others": 0.0516, "total": 6.9517, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059233 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.040859 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.031781 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.023623 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.018527 } ], "others_margin": 0.051585 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his 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0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Alejandro Catena, Jorge Herrando", "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Catena, Jorge Herrando", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9363, xG scale 1.4183, xA scale 1.2583, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2312, "goal_rate": 0.2023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5703, "total_shots": 1.4734, "expected_assists": 0.1817, "key_pass": 1.7231, "rating": 6.9517, "minutes": 76.55, "total_pass": 24.7387, "accurate_pass": 20.4612, "duels_won": 2.9861, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0766, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alex Padilla", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Elmin Rastoder", "ranking": 5717 }, { "player_name": "Max Bird", "ranking": 5718 }, { "player_name": "Rob Atkinson", "ranking": 5719 }, { "player_name": "Tariq Lamptey", "ranking": 5720 }, { "player_name": "Liberato Cacace", "ranking": 5721 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jordan Beyer", "ranking": 5723 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Wood", "ranking": 5724 }, { "player_name": "Tomoki Iwata", "ranking": 5725 }, { "player_name": "Harrison Burrows", "ranking": 5726 }, { "player_name": "Pelle Mattsson", "ranking": 5727 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": 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"squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (1 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.11); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8738, "goals_prevented": 0.0234, "rating": 7.0766, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 31.0, "accurate_pass": 11.0, "total_long_balls": 27.0, "accurate_long_balls": 8.0, "touches": 42.0, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 7.0, "high_claims": 1.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 2.0, "possession_lost": 21.0, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, 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0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1736 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0468 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.046 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0247 } ], "others": -0.0353, "total": 2.8738, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061257 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016876 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.016336 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.015082 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.008522 } ], "others_margin": -0.012186 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.023359384387731552, "model_output": 0.0234, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0344 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0204 } ], "others": 0.0597, "total": 0.0234, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.03801 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.034448 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.032649 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.023839 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.020409 } ], "others_margin": 0.059684 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.076589584350586, "model_output": 7.0766, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0164 } ], "others": 0.007, "total": 7.0766, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.031265 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025919 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.023184 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.018467 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016399 } ], "others_margin": 0.007042 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9834, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8261, "goals_prevented": 0.023, "rating": 7.0766, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 30.4854, "accurate_pass": 10.8174, "total_long_balls": 26.5518, "accurate_long_balls": 7.8672, "touches": 41.3028, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.8838, "high_claims": 0.9834, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 1.9668, "possession_lost": 20.6514, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.917, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9502 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9834, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.436, "goals_prevented": 0.0035, "rating": 7.0766, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.4, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1543, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.436, "goals_prevented": 0.0035, "rating": 7.0766, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.436, "goals_prevented": 0.0035, "rating": 7.0766, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1702, "combined_rank_score": 690.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 138.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.35, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1243.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8616, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aitor Paredes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vicente Álvarez", "ranking": 1697 }, { "player_name": "Matías Cavalleri", "ranking": 1698 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Theate", "ranking": 1699 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Kakhramonov", "ranking": 1700 }, { "player_name": "Wilson Odobert", "ranking": 1701 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Danny Welbeck", "ranking": 1703 }, { "player_name": "Angeliño", "ranking": 1704 }, { "player_name": "Park Kyu-Min", "ranking": 1705 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Vidal", "ranking": 1706 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Adams", "ranking": 1707 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 26, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.771804972390745, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.221, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9992, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (26 historical appearances) to 13.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.22); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, 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0.0795, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0675, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0574, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0488, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0415, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-15", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0353, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.5577, "aerialWon": 1.4425, "totalClearance_p90": 5.2978, "totalTackle": 0.8373, "totalTackle_p90": 1.0959 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.34365859627723694, "model_output": 0.3437, "scale": "count per 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1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.929432 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.088688 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.086255 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.04561 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.044189 } ], "others_margin": -0.025149 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6728231310844421, "model_output": 0.6728, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7308 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": 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"totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0016, "total": 0.2231, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.19508 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.081195 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.024682 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015196 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010342 } ], "others_margin": -0.001711 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.861647129058838, "model_output": 6.8616, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0402 }, { "name": 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0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7173 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0668 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0462 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0261 } ], "others": 0.0172, "total": 0.545, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.741701 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.108079 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.082095 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.072412 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.050692 } ], "others_margin": 0.032114 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18818002939224243, "model_output": 0.1882, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1803 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0956 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 0.1882, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.180343 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.095634 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016363 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013902 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.010355 } ], "others_margin": -0.024986 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.700150012969971, "model_output": 6.7002, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 6.7001, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.021149 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.016587 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016242 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014077 } ], "others_margin": -0.007484 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4933, "tackles": 0.6483, "tackles_won": 0.3734, "clearances": 0.7219, "aerial_won": 0.5442, "total_shots": 0.1879, "rating": 6.7002, "minutes": 27.56, "total_pass": 18.8864, "accurate_pass": 16.4498, "duels_won": 1.8115, "total_long_balls": 0.5419, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2756, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8429, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6069, "crosses_total": 1.7915, "crosses_accurate": 0.3024, "touches": 28.4698, "possession_lost": 6.0353, "dispossessed": 0.2242, "duels_lost": 1.1014, "aerial_lost": 0.1542, "total_contest": 0.7433, "won_contest": 0.222, "ball_recovery": 0.7684, "challenges_lost": 0.1025, "fouls": 0.0993, "fouls_drawn": 0.1206, "blocks": 0.028, "goals": 0.0, 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1.7855 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.6 to 13.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2437, "tackles": 0.3221, "tackles_won": 0.1847, "clearances": 0.3587, "aerial_won": 0.2704, "total_shots": 0.0934, "rating": 6.7002, "minutes": 13.69, "total_pass": 9.3846, "accurate_pass": 8.1739, "duels_won": 0.9001, "total_long_balls": 0.2693, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1369, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1657, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9033, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2189, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2706, "crosses_total": 0.8872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1503, "touches": 14.1466, "possession_lost": 2.9989, "dispossessed": 0.2242, "duels_lost": 0.5473, "aerial_lost": 0.1542, "total_contest": 0.3693, "won_contest": 0.1103, "ball_recovery": 0.3818, "challenges_lost": 0.1025, "fouls": 0.0507, "fouls_drawn": 0.0621, "blocks": 0.0139, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0013, "expected_assists": 0.022, "shots_on_target": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.0232, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 4.5119, "total_progression": 27.8738, "progressive_carries": 0.472, "key_pass": 0.2985, "shots_off_target": 0.0229, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.219, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.69, "projection_minutes": 27.56, "minutes_scale": 0.4969, "appearance_probability": 0.219 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2437, "tackles": 0.3221, "tackles_won": 0.1847, "clearances": 0.3587, "aerial_won": 0.2704, "total_shots": 0.0934, "rating": 6.7002, "minutes": 13.69, "total_pass": 9.3846, "accurate_pass": 8.1739, "duels_won": 0.9001, "total_long_balls": 0.2693, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1369, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1657, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9033, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2189, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2706, 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0.1847, "clearances": 0.3587, "aerial_won": 0.2704, "total_shots": 0.0934, "rating": 6.7002, "minutes": 13.69, "total_pass": 9.3846, "accurate_pass": 8.1739, "duels_won": 0.9001, "total_long_balls": 0.2693, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1369, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1657, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9033, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2189, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2706, "crosses_total": 0.8872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1503, "touches": 14.1466, "possession_lost": 2.9989, "dispossessed": 0.2242, "duels_lost": 0.5473, "aerial_lost": 0.1542, "total_contest": 0.3693, "won_contest": 0.1103, "ball_recovery": 0.3818, "challenges_lost": 0.1025, "fouls": 0.0507, "fouls_drawn": 0.0621, "blocks": 0.0139, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0013, "expected_assists": 0.022, "shots_on_target": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.0232, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 4.5119, "total_progression": 27.8738, "progressive_carries": 0.472, "key_pass": 0.2985, "shots_off_target": 0.0229, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.219, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.219, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2437, "tackles": 0.3221, "tackles_won": 0.1847, "clearances": 0.3587, "aerial_won": 0.2704, "total_shots": 0.0934, "rating": 6.7002, "minutes": 13.69, "total_pass": 9.3846, "accurate_pass": 8.1739, "duels_won": 0.9001, "total_long_balls": 0.2693, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1369, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1657, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9033, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2189, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2706, "crosses_total": 0.8872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1503, "touches": 14.1466, "possession_lost": 2.9989, "dispossessed": 0.2242, "duels_lost": 0.5473, "aerial_lost": 0.1542, "total_contest": 0.3693, "won_contest": 0.1103, "ball_recovery": 0.3818, "challenges_lost": 0.1025, "fouls": 0.0507, "fouls_drawn": 0.0621, "blocks": 0.0139, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0013, "expected_assists": 0.022, "shots_on_target": 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"expectedGoals", "margin": -0.157222 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.104936 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.095835 } ], "others_margin": -0.233612 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.24316270649433136, "model_output": 0.2432, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3363 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.198 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0385 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0262 } ], "others": -0.1049, "total": 0.2432, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.336254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.198024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.038514 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037847 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026179 } ], "others_margin": -0.104955 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7008185386657715, "model_output": 6.7008, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0924 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0052 } ], "others": -0.0119, "total": 6.7008, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.09244 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032527 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009029 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.005571 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.005245 } ], "others_margin": -0.011773 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.550)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2469, "expected_assists": 0.018, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0205, "goals": 0.033, "goal_rate": 0.033, "shots_on_target": 0.0745, "total_shots": 0.2455, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 20.33, "total_pass": 25.761, "accurate_pass": 19.4572, "duels_won": 3.2747, "total_long_balls": 1.0097, "accurate_long_balls": 0.464, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9703, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4051, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0521, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.2479, "possession_lost": 8.405, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.2026, "aerial_won": 1.0916, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.0916, "tackles_won": 1.0916, "tackles": 1.6373, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0916, "won_contest": 0.5457, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.5651, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12400000, "quality_factor": 0.5502, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.3 to 22.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assists": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.044, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "goals": 0.0364, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.42, "projection_minutes": 20.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1027, "appearance_probability": 0.519 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assists": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.044, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "goals": 0.0364, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9363, xG scale 1.4183, xA scale 1.2583, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1901, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.328, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9363, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 1.0624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4183, "xa_scale": 1.2583, "opponent_lambda": 1.656, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.519 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0226, "after": 0.0166 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0198, "after": 0.0129 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3281, "fifa_rank": 1573.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0163, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "scorer_weight": 0.0198, "squad_weight_total": 1.4267, "weight_share": 0.0138, "finishing_factor": 1.1901, "appearance_weight": 0.519, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oihan Sancet", "weight": 0.4974, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4974, "runner_up": "Robert Navarro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2739 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0163, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0127, "finishing_factor": 1.1901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.044, "provider_weight": 0.0161, "squad_weight_total": 1.0061, "weight_share": 0.016, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.519, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yuri Berchiche", "weight": 0.1656, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1656, "runner_up": "Robert Navarro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1454, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Oihan Sancet" ] } ] } } ] }, "Alejandro Rego Mora": { "player_id": 2110897, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 192, "market_value": 5500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, 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1.0919, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 17122851.0, "match_date": "2026-10-21", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421074.0, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3002, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "assists": 0.0333, "assist_rate": 0.0333, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goals": 0.0291, "goal_rate": 0.0291, "shots_on_target": 0.0849, "total_shots": 0.2606, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 14.2103, "accurate_pass": 11.748, "duels_won": 1.7429, "total_long_balls": 1.0878, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7005, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2232, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5249, "crosses_total": 0.2016, "crosses_accurate": 0.0691, "touches": 18.4294, "possession_lost": 3.1819, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.2059, "aerial_won": 0.5338, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6259, "tackles_won": 0.5542, "tackles": 0.7426, "clearances": 0.3424, "total_contest": 0.2269, "won_contest": 0.168, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5727, "fouls_drawn": 0.2985, "blocks": 0.2347, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0079, "ball_carries": 4.156, "total_progression": 12.8702, "progressive_carries": 0.1979, "shots_off_target": 0.1756 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5500000, "quality_factor": 0.4683, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.0 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "assists": 0.032, "assist_rate": 0.032, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0076, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.09, "projection_minutes": 23.02, "minutes_scale": 0.9598, "appearance_probability": 0.504 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "assists": 0.032, "assist_rate": 0.032, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0076, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0076, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9363, xG scale 1.4183, xA scale 1.2583, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0926, "creation_factor": 1.0919 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.328, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9363, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 1.0624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4183, "xa_scale": 1.2583, "opponent_lambda": 1.656, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.504 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0213, "after": 0.0152 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0251, "after": 0.0159 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0926, "creation_factor": 1.0919, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1816, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.015, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0926, "creation_factor": 1.0919, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.015, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "scorer_weight": 0.0166, "squad_weight_total": 1.4267, "weight_share": 0.0116, "finishing_factor": 1.0926, "appearance_weight": 0.504, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oihan Sancet", "weight": 0.4974, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4974, "runner_up": "Robert Navarro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2739 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.015, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0157, "finishing_factor": 1.0926, "creation_factor": 1.0919, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.032, "provider_weight": 0.0174, "squad_weight_total": 1.0061, "weight_share": 0.0173, "creation_factor": 1.0919, "appearance_weight": 0.504, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yuri Berchiche", "weight": 0.1656, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1656, "runner_up": "Robert Navarro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1454, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Oihan Sancet" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nico Williams": { "player_id": 1085400, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0748, "goal_rate": 0.1061, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, 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0.031399 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.025331 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.022439 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019824 } ], "others_margin": 0.058404 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0871, "goals": 0.1094, "goal_rate": 0.1094, "shots_on_target": 0.246, "total_shots": 1.0528, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "key_pass": 0.6226, "rating": 6.8495, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 10.8726, "accurate_pass": 8.5085, "duels_won": 3.1595, "total_long_balls": 0.1712, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5976, "crosses_total": 1.9094, "crosses_accurate": 0.4874, "touches": 23.5472, "possession_lost": 8.2191, "dispossessed": 0.7689, "duels_lost": 3.9736, "aerial_lost": 0.419, "total_contest": 3.6937, "won_contest": 1.4662, "ball_recovery": 1.4632, "challenges_lost": 0.2845, "fouls": 0.2737, "fouls_drawn": 0.6792, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1774, "tackles_won": 0.3949, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.1089, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1922, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1281, "ball_carries": 7.8294, "total_progression": 48.6724, "progressive_carries": 2.4573, "shots_off_target": 0.8067 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0068)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0871, "goals": 0.1087, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "shots_on_target": 0.2443, "total_shots": 1.0522, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "key_pass": 0.6226, "rating": 6.8495, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 10.8726, "accurate_pass": 8.5085, "duels_won": 3.1595, "total_long_balls": 0.1712, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5976, "crosses_total": 1.9064, "crosses_accurate": 0.4874, "touches": 23.5472, "possession_lost": 8.2191, "dispossessed": 0.7689, "duels_lost": 3.9736, "aerial_lost": 0.419, "total_contest": 3.6937, "won_contest": 1.4662, "ball_recovery": 1.4632, "challenges_lost": 0.2845, "fouls": 0.2718, "fouls_drawn": 0.6746, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1779, "tackles_won": 0.3955, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.1089, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1922, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1289, "ball_carries": 7.8294, "total_progression": 48.6724, "progressive_carries": 2.4573, "shots_off_target": 0.8067 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0068, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2933, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.4 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0851, "goals": 0.1061, "goal_rate": 0.1061, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "total_shots": 1.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0608, "key_pass": 0.608, "rating": 6.8495, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6173, "accurate_pass": 8.3087, "duels_won": 3.0853, "total_long_balls": 0.1672, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5137, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4427, "crosses_total": 1.8616, "crosses_accurate": 0.476, "touches": 22.9942, "possession_lost": 8.0261, "dispossessed": 0.7689, "duels_lost": 3.8803, "aerial_lost": 0.419, "total_contest": 3.607, "won_contest": 1.4318, "ball_recovery": 1.4288, "challenges_lost": 0.2845, "fouls": 0.2654, "fouls_drawn": 0.6588, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1737, "tackles_won": 0.3862, "tackles": 0.7303, "clearances": 0.1063, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1877, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1289, "ball_carries": 7.6455, "total_progression": 47.5293, "progressive_carries": 2.3996, "shots_off_target": 0.7878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.78, "projection_minutes": 26.4, "minutes_scale": 0.9765, "appearance_probability": 0.62 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0851, "goals": 0.1061, "goal_rate": 0.1061, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "total_shots": 1.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0608, "key_pass": 0.608, "rating": 6.8495, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6173, "accurate_pass": 8.3087, "duels_won": 3.0853, "total_long_balls": 0.1672, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5137, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4427, "crosses_total": 1.8616, "crosses_accurate": 0.476, "touches": 22.9942, "possession_lost": 8.0261, "dispossessed": 0.7689, "duels_lost": 3.8803, "aerial_lost": 0.419, "total_contest": 3.607, "won_contest": 1.4318, "ball_recovery": 1.4288, "challenges_lost": 0.2845, "fouls": 0.2654, "fouls_drawn": 0.6588, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1737, "tackles_won": 0.3862, "tackles": 0.7303, "clearances": 0.1063, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1877, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1289, "ball_carries": 7.6455, "total_progression": 47.5293, "progressive_carries": 2.3996, "shots_off_target": 0.7878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0851, "goal_rate": 0.1061, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "total_shots": 1.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0608, "key_pass": 0.608, "rating": 6.8495, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6173, "accurate_pass": 8.3087, "duels_won": 3.0853, "total_long_balls": 0.1672, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5137, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4427, "crosses_total": 1.8616, "crosses_accurate": 0.476, "touches": 22.9942, "possession_lost": 8.0261, "dispossessed": 0.7689, "duels_lost": 3.8803, "aerial_lost": 0.419, "total_contest": 3.607, "won_contest": 1.4318, "ball_recovery": 1.4288, "challenges_lost": 0.2845, "fouls": 0.2654, "fouls_drawn": 0.6588, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1737, "tackles_won": 0.3862, "tackles": 0.7303, "clearances": 0.1063, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1877, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1289, "ball_carries": 7.6455, "total_progression": 47.5293, "progressive_carries": 2.3996, "shots_off_target": 0.7878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9363, xG scale 1.4183, xA scale 1.2583, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0748, "goal_rate": 0.1061, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "total_shots": 1.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "key_pass": 0.608, "rating": 6.8495, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6173, "accurate_pass": 8.3087, "duels_won": 3.0853, "total_long_balls": 0.1672, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5137, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4427, "crosses_total": 1.8616, "crosses_accurate": 0.476, "touches": 22.9942, "possession_lost": 8.0261, "dispossessed": 0.7689, "duels_lost": 3.8803, "aerial_lost": 0.419, "total_contest": 3.607, "won_contest": 1.4318, "ball_recovery": 1.4288, "challenges_lost": 0.2845, "fouls": 0.2654, "fouls_drawn": 0.6588, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1737, "tackles_won": 0.3862, "tackles": 0.7303, "clearances": 0.1063, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1877, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1289, "ball_carries": 7.6455, "total_progression": 47.5293, "progressive_carries": 2.3996, "shots_off_target": 0.7878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1554, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.328, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9363, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 1.0624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4183, "xa_scale": 1.2583, "opponent_lambda": 1.656, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.62 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0851, "after": 0.0748 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0608, "after": 0.0474 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0748, "goal_rate": 0.1061, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "total_shots": 1.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "key_pass": 0.608, "rating": 6.8495, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6173, "accurate_pass": 8.3087, "duels_won": 3.0853, "total_long_balls": 0.1672, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5137, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4427, "crosses_total": 1.8616, "crosses_accurate": 0.476, "touches": 22.9942, "possession_lost": 8.0261, "dispossessed": 0.7689, "duels_lost": 3.8803, "aerial_lost": 0.419, "total_contest": 3.607, "won_contest": 1.4318, "ball_recovery": 1.4288, "challenges_lost": 0.2845, "fouls": 0.2654, "fouls_drawn": 0.6588, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1737, "tackles_won": 0.3862, "tackles": 0.7303, "clearances": 0.1063, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1877, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1289, "ball_carries": 7.6455, "total_progression": 47.5293, "progressive_carries": 2.3996, "shots_off_target": 0.7878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1554, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 498, "fifa_rank": 231.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0748, "goal_rate": 0.1061, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "total_shots": 1.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "key_pass": 0.608, "rating": 6.8495, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6173, "accurate_pass": 8.3087, "duels_won": 3.0853, "total_long_balls": 0.1672, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5137, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4427, "crosses_total": 1.8616, "crosses_accurate": 0.476, "touches": 22.9942, "possession_lost": 8.0261, "dispossessed": 0.7689, "duels_lost": 3.8803, "aerial_lost": 0.419, "total_contest": 3.607, "won_contest": 1.4318, "ball_recovery": 1.4288, "challenges_lost": 0.2845, "fouls": 0.2654, "fouls_drawn": 0.6588, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1737, "tackles_won": 0.3862, "tackles": 0.7303, "clearances": 0.1063, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1877, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1289, "ball_carries": 7.6455, "total_progression": 47.5293, "progressive_carries": 2.3996, "shots_off_target": 0.7878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0705, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1554, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0705, "goal_rate": 0.1061, "scorer_weight": 0.0864, "squad_weight_total": 1.4267, "weight_share": 0.0606, "finishing_factor": 1.1554, "appearance_weight": 0.62, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oihan Sancet", "weight": 0.4974, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4974, "runner_up": "Robert Navarro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2739 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0748, "goal_rate": 0.1061, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "total_shots": 1.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "key_pass": 0.608, "rating": 6.8495, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6173, "accurate_pass": 8.3087, "duels_won": 3.0853, "total_long_balls": 0.1672, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5137, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4427, "crosses_total": 1.8616, "crosses_accurate": 0.476, "touches": 22.9942, "possession_lost": 8.0261, "dispossessed": 0.7689, "duels_lost": 3.8803, "aerial_lost": 0.419, "total_contest": 3.607, "won_contest": 1.4318, "ball_recovery": 1.4288, "challenges_lost": 0.2845, "fouls": 0.2654, "fouls_drawn": 0.6588, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1737, "tackles_won": 0.3862, "tackles": 0.7303, "clearances": 0.1063, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1877, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1289, "ball_carries": 7.6455, "total_progression": 47.5293, "progressive_carries": 2.3996, "shots_off_target": 0.7878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0705, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0456, "finishing_factor": 1.1554, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, 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"contribution": -0.2328 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0372, "total": 0.3747, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.410401 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.082936 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.044184 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.03722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03215 } ], "others_margin": -0.094485 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.701582431793213, "model_output": 6.7016, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0664 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0041, "total": 6.7016, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066412 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011746 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01054 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.008708 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.008699 } ], "others_margin": -0.004144 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goals": 0.1605, "goal_rate": 0.1605, "shots_on_target": 0.4715, "total_shots": 1.1074, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 0.3745, "rating": 6.7016, "minutes": 35.06, "total_pass": 9.1702, "accurate_pass": 5.4654, "duels_won": 2.0744, "total_long_balls": 0.4474, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3217, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6132, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.149, "crosses_total": 0.8946, "crosses_accurate": 0.2046, "touches": 17.3323, "possession_lost": 7.9869, "dispossessed": 1.2831, "duels_lost": 3.6604, "aerial_lost": 0.913, "total_contest": 0.8344, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.087, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6298, "fouls_drawn": 0.8395, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2407, "tackles_won": 0.3302, 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.338, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083539.0, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 36, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.049, "expected_assists": 0.1858, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 498, "combined_rank_score": 291.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 351.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.984, "sofascore_appearances": 25.0, "fifa_rank": 231.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official 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"trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 612, "rows": 17180 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-25", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 48.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-21", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 36.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 8.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 15.4764, "expectedGoals": 0.1501, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 10.9559, "totalShots": 1.9113, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 16.1047 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08606083691120148, "model_output": 0.0861, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2767 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0987 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0236 } ], 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"totalShots", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5269, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2236 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0163 } ], "others": -0.018, "total": 0.2432, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.640773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.552235 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.076224 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.071086 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.066321 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.064582 } ], "others_margin": -0.071845 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0406414270401, "model_output": 1.0406, "scale": "count 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"expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06153111532330513, "model_output": 0.0615, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1287 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0038 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": 0.006, "total": 0.0615, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.384104 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.118418 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.104803 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.066751 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.063952 } ], "others_margin": 0.103196 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6153821349143982, "model_output": 0.6154, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2335 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0256 } ], "others": 0.0257, "total": 0.6154, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.411843 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.113405 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.049188 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.045347 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.044378 } ], "others_margin": 0.042598 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.849505424499512, "model_output": 6.8495, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0812 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0198 } ], "others": 0.0585, "total": 6.8495, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.081227 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.031399 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.025331 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.022439 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019824 } ], "others_margin": 0.058404 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0871, "goals": 0.1094, "goal_rate": 0.1094, "shots_on_target": 0.246, "total_shots": 1.0528, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "key_pass": 0.6226, "rating": 6.8495, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 10.8726, "accurate_pass": 8.5085, "duels_won": 3.1595, "total_long_balls": 0.1712, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5976, "crosses_total": 1.9094, "crosses_accurate": 0.4874, "touches": 23.5472, "possession_lost": 8.2191, "dispossessed": 0.7689, "duels_lost": 3.9736, "aerial_lost": 0.419, "total_contest": 3.6937, "won_contest": 1.4662, "ball_recovery": 1.4632, "challenges_lost": 0.2845, "fouls": 0.2737, "fouls_drawn": 0.6792, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1774, "tackles_won": 0.3949, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.1089, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1922, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1281, "ball_carries": 7.8294, "total_progression": 48.6724, "progressive_carries": 2.4573, "shots_off_target": 0.8067 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0068)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0871, "goals": 0.1087, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "shots_on_target": 0.2443, "total_shots": 1.0522, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "key_pass": 0.6226, "rating": 6.8495, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 10.8726, "accurate_pass": 8.5085, "duels_won": 3.1595, "total_long_balls": 0.1712, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5976, "crosses_total": 1.9064, 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"importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3363 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.198 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0385 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0262 } ], "others": -0.1049, "total": 0.2432, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.336254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.198024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.038514 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037847 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026179 } ], "others_margin": -0.104955 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7008185386657715, "model_output": 6.7008, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0924 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0052 } ], "others": -0.0119, "total": 6.7008, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.09244 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032527 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009029 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.005571 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.005245 } ], "others_margin": -0.011773 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.550)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2469, "expected_assists": 0.018, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0205, "goals": 0.033, "goal_rate": 0.033, "shots_on_target": 0.0745, "total_shots": 0.2455, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 20.33, "total_pass": 25.761, "accurate_pass": 19.4572, "duels_won": 3.2747, "total_long_balls": 1.0097, "accurate_long_balls": 0.464, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9703, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4051, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0521, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.2479, "possession_lost": 8.405, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.2026, "aerial_won": 1.0916, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.0916, "tackles_won": 1.0916, "tackles": 1.6373, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0916, "won_contest": 0.5457, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.5651, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1709 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12400000, "quality_factor": 0.5502, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.3 to 22.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assists": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.044, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "goals": 0.0364, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.42, "projection_minutes": 20.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1027, "appearance_probability": 0.519 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assists": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.044, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "goals": 0.0364, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9363, xG scale 1.4183, xA scale 1.2583, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1901, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.328, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9363, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 1.0624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4183, "xa_scale": 1.2583, "opponent_lambda": 1.656, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.519 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0226, "after": 0.0166 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0198, "after": 0.0129 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3281, "fifa_rank": 1573.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0163, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "scorer_weight": 0.0198, "squad_weight_total": 1.4267, "weight_share": 0.0138, "finishing_factor": 1.1901, "appearance_weight": 0.519, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oihan Sancet", "weight": 0.4974, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4974, "runner_up": "Robert Navarro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2739 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2723, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "goal_rate": 0.0364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0822, "total_shots": 0.2707, "rating": 6.7008, "minutes": 22.42, "total_pass": 28.4079, "accurate_pass": 21.4564, "duels_won": 3.6112, "total_long_balls": 1.1134, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5117, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0975, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2687, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3104, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1877, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.7668, "possession_lost": 9.2686, "dispossessed": 0.5457, "duels_lost": 4.6344, "aerial_won": 1.2038, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2038, "tackles_won": 1.2038, "tackles": 1.8055, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2038, "won_contest": 0.6018, "challenges_lost": 0.5457, "fouls": 2.8287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.519, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.42, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0163, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0127, "finishing_factor": 1.1901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.044, "provider_weight": 0.0161, "squad_weight_total": 1.0061, "weight_share": 0.016, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.519, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yuri Berchiche", "weight": 0.1656, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1656, "runner_up": "Robert Navarro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1454, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Oihan Sancet" ] } ] } } ] }, "Alejandro Rego Mora": { "player_id": 2110897, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 192, "market_value": 5500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.015, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0157, "finishing_factor": 1.0926, "creation_factor": 1.0919, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 17122851.0, "match_date": "2026-10-21", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421074.0, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.362102 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.257806 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026041 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.024918 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.018628 } ], "others_margin": -0.034447 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.711504936218262, "model_output": 6.7115, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0868 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0021, "total": 6.7115, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086801 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.025066 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019298 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006292 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006274 } ], "others_margin": -0.002169 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3002, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "assists": 0.0333, "assist_rate": 0.0333, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goals": 0.0291, "goal_rate": 0.0291, "shots_on_target": 0.0849, "total_shots": 0.2606, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 14.2103, "accurate_pass": 11.748, "duels_won": 1.7429, "total_long_balls": 1.0878, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7005, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2232, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5249, "crosses_total": 0.2016, "crosses_accurate": 0.0691, "touches": 18.4294, "possession_lost": 3.1819, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.2059, "aerial_won": 0.5338, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6259, "tackles_won": 0.5542, "tackles": 0.7426, "clearances": 0.3424, "total_contest": 0.2269, "won_contest": 0.168, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5727, "fouls_drawn": 0.2985, "blocks": 0.2347, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0079, "ball_carries": 4.156, "total_progression": 12.8702, "progressive_carries": 0.1979, "shots_off_target": 0.1756 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5500000, "quality_factor": 0.4683, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.0 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "assists": 0.032, "assist_rate": 0.032, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0076, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.09, "projection_minutes": 23.02, "minutes_scale": 0.9598, "appearance_probability": 0.504 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "assists": 0.032, "assist_rate": 0.032, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0076, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0076, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 0.9363, xG scale 1.4183, xA scale 1.2583, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0926, "creation_factor": 1.0919 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.328, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9363, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 1.0624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4183, "xa_scale": 1.2583, "opponent_lambda": 1.656, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.504 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0213, "after": 0.0152 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0251, "after": 0.0159 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0926, "creation_factor": 1.0919, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1816, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.015, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0926, "creation_factor": 1.0919, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.015, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "scorer_weight": 0.0166, "squad_weight_total": 1.4267, "weight_share": 0.0116, "finishing_factor": 1.0926, "appearance_weight": 0.504, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oihan Sancet", "weight": 0.4974, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4974, "runner_up": "Robert Navarro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2739 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0815, "total_shots": 0.2501, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 13.639, "accurate_pass": 11.2757, "duels_won": 1.6728, "total_long_balls": 1.0441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6723, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0534, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2224, "crosses_total": 0.1935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0663, "touches": 17.6885, "possession_lost": 3.054, "dispossessed": 0.163, "duels_lost": 1.1574, "aerial_won": 0.5123, "aerial_lost": 0.0646, "interceptions": 0.6007, "tackles_won": 0.5319, "tackles": 0.7127, "clearances": 0.3286, "total_contest": 0.2178, "won_contest": 0.1612, "challenges_lost": 0.3469, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.2865, "blocks": 0.2253, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 3.9889, "total_progression": 12.3528, "progressive_carries": 0.1899, "shots_off_target": 0.1685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.09, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.015, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0157, "finishing_factor": 1.0926, "creation_factor": 1.0919, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.032, "provider_weight": 0.0174, "squad_weight_total": 1.0061, "weight_share": 0.0173, "creation_factor": 1.0919, "appearance_weight": 0.504, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yuri Berchiche", "weight": 0.1656, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1656, "runner_up": "Robert Navarro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1454, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Oihan Sancet" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.33, "expected_assists": 1.06, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 517, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 6.93, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rubén García", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Yeray Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "xg_contribution": 0.1091, "xg_multiplier": 0.9294, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yeray Álvarez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rubén García (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Yeray Álvarez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jonathan Dubasin", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Yuri Berchiche" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.483, "xg_contribution": 0.181, "xg_multiplier": 1.0048, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yuri Berchiche", "role": "LB", "market_value": 910000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.517 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan Dubasin (RW) is evenly matched against Yuri Berchiche in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.181 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ante Budimir", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Dani Vivian" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.558, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3658, "xg_multiplier": 0.9077, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dani Vivian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ante Budimir (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Aymeric Laporte and Dani Vivian in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.366 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Iker Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "xg_contribution": 0.0473, "xg_multiplier": 1.0098, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.573 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iker Muñoz (CDM) is evenly matched against Beñat Gerenabarrena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jon Moncayola", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "xg_contribution": 0.0405, "xg_multiplier": 1.0689, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.503 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Moncayola (CM) is slightly favored against Beñat Gerenabarrena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Moi Gómez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "xg_contribution": 0.039, "xg_multiplier": 0.9804, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.563 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moi Gómez (CM) is evenly matched against Beñat Gerenabarrena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Valentin Rosier" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "xg_contribution": 0.0639, "xg_multiplier": 0.9824, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Valentin Rosier", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta (LW) is evenly matched against Valentin Rosier in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Peio Canales", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "xg_contribution": 0.0627, "xg_multiplier": 0.885, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.598 } ], "duel_analysis": "Peio Canales (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Enzo Boyomo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Oihan Sancet", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Iker Muñoz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.605, "xg_contribution": 0.2991, "xg_multiplier": 1.2131, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iker Muñoz", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.395 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oihan Sancet (CAM) has a clear attacking advantage against Iker Muñoz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.21 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.299 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Robert Navarro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Alejandro Catena", "Jorge Herrando" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.163, "xg_multiplier": 0.9407, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jorge Herrando", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robert Navarro (ST) is evenly matched against Alejandro Catena and Jorge Herrando in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.163 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Jon Moncayola" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.353, "xg_contribution": 0.0317, "xg_multiplier": 0.9311, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Moncayola", "role": "CM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647 } ], "duel_analysis": "Beñat Gerenabarrena (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jon Moncayola in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mikel Jauregizar", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Jon Moncayola" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "xg_contribution": 0.0767, "xg_multiplier": 1.1174, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Moncayola", "role": "CM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.52 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Jauregizar (CDM) is slightly favored against Jon Moncayola in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €7M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.455, "away_midfield_power": 0.605, "home_creative_power": 0.387, "away_creative_power": 0.541, "home_defensive_power": 0.387, "away_defensive_power": 0.483, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.429, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jon Moncayola", "Moi Gómez", "Iker Muñoz" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Oihan Sancet", "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "Mikel Jauregizar", "Peio Canales" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Jon Moncayola vs Mikel Jauregizar", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.977, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.027 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.656, "away_lambda": 1.328, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Rubén García": { "opponents": [ "Yeray Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jonathan Dubasin": { "opponents": [ "Yuri Berchiche" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ante Budimir": { "opponents": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Dani Vivian" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iker Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "Oihan Sancet", "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jon Moncayola": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "Mikel Jauregizar", "Peio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Moi Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Valentin Rosier": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Enzo Boyomo": { "opponents": [ "Peio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alejandro Catena": { "opponents": [ "Robert Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jorge Herrando": { "opponents": [ "Robert Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sergio Herrera": { "opponents": [ "Robert Navarro", "Oihan Sancet" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Yeray Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yuri Berchiche": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan Dubasin" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aymeric Laporte": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dani Vivian": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Beñat Gerenabarrena": { "opponents": [ "Iker Muñoz", "Jon Moncayola", "Moi Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta": { "opponents": [ "Valentin Rosier", "Iker Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Peio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Jon Moncayola" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oihan Sancet": { "opponents": [ "Iker Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Robert Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Catena", "Jorge Herrando" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mikel Jauregizar": { "opponents": [ "Jon Moncayola", "Moi Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Unai Simón": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan Dubasin", "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jon Moncayola vs Mikel Jauregizar). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.78, Away: 0.70. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.153, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0597, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9899, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9993, "home_midfield_factor": 0.977, "away_midfield_factor": 1.027, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4584, "away_avg_quality": 0.5259, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0675, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.7558, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.818, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.0556, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1746, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0961, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0559, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7827, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9245 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.977, "result": 0.9033 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 0.9304 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.2483 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8633, "result": 1.0777 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 0.9993 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9899, "result": 0.9892 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.153, "result": 1.1422 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1422, "result": 1.1422, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1746, "factor": 0.9441, "pre": 1.1422, "result": 1.0784 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0784 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1496, "result": 1.2276 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.7407, "result": 1.1166 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1166, "result": 1.117, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.229 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.229, "result": 1.2203, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.22 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.22 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.22, "result": 1.22, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.312, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.656 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6971, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8603 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.027, "result": 0.8836 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.8747 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8747 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0179, "result": 0.8904 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.8999 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9993, "result": 0.8992 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0597, "result": 0.9589 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9589, "result": 0.9589, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1746, "factor": 1.0961, "pre": 0.9589, "result": 1.051 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.051 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.129, "result": 1.18 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.7407, "result": 1.0798 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.0798, "result": 1.08, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.048 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 1.048, "result": 1.0554, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.055 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.055 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.055, "result": 1.055, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.312, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.328 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1496, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.129, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Osasuna", "away_squad": "Athletic Club", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.741, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.741, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.22, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.055, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1166, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0798, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.312, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.656, "final_away_lambda": 1.328 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8633, "attack_index": 0.847, "defense_concede_index": 0.816, "form_multiplier": 0.991, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.28, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.23, "team_ppg": 1.2, "opponent_ppg": 1.35 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0179, "attack_index": 0.907, "defense_concede_index": 1.148, "form_multiplier": 1.009, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.37, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.73, "team_ppg": 1.35, "opponent_ppg": 1.2 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Osasuna vs Athletic Club. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.117, Away 1.080). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.656, Away 1.328 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Osasuna", "away_squad": "Athletic Club", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.741, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.741, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.656, "away_lambda": 1.328, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.117, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.08 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.312, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:33:55Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }