{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Deportivo", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261107", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0982, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0982, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0601, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Espanyol", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2284, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1068 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0982 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0931 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0868 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0606 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0513, "0-1": 0.0567, "0-2": 0.0324, "0-3": 0.0122, "0-4": 0.0035, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.0931, "1-1": 0.1068, "1-2": 0.0601, "1-3": 0.0227, "1-4": 0.0064, "1-5": 0.0015, "2-0": 0.0868, "2-1": 0.0982, "2-2": 0.0556, "2-3": 0.021, "2-4": 0.0059, "2-5": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.0535, "3-1": 0.0606, "3-2": 0.0343, "3-3": 0.0129, "3-4": 0.0037, "3-5": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0248, "4-1": 0.028, "4-2": 0.0159, "4-3": 0.006, "4-4": 0.0017, "5-0": 0.0092, "5-1": 0.0104, "5-2": 0.0059, "5-3": 0.0022, "5-4": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0028, "6-1": 0.0032, "6-2": 0.0018, "6-3": 0.0007, "7-0": 0.0007, "7-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5411, "draw": 0.2284, "away_win": 0.2304 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.573, "under_2_5_goals": 0.427, "btts_yes": 0.5718, "btts_no": 0.4282, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3224, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1571 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 6.83, "ATR": 6.72, "GK": 7.0 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.78, "MCR": 6.91, "ATR": 6.73, "GK": 7.06 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Espanyol vs Deportivo. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Espanyol 4W-4D-2L vs Deportivo over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Roberto Fernández (2), Bil Nsongo", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Urko González vs Marc Casadó will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.80, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.851, "away_lambda": 1.132, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 1.0143, "away_multiplier": 0.9857 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1068, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5411, "draw": 0.2284, "away_win": 0.2304 }, "favorite": "Espanyol", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5411, "fair_spread": 0.719, "fair_total": 2.983, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.851, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.132, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.573, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5718, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3224, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1571, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Roberto Fernández (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.774, "probability": 0.5388, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bil Nsongo (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.3315, "probability": 0.2822, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Edu Expósito (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.26, "probability": 0.2289, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mario Soriano (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.209, "probability": 0.1886, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.983, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 869, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.2, "possession_home_pct": 50.0, "possession_away_pct": 50.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Espanyol", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5411, "script": "Espanyol is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.72 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Deportivo must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Espanyol lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Espanyol chance creation leans on Roberto Fernández against José María Giménez, Lucas Noubi in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Espanyol: starters carry the main goal usage through Roberto Fernández (2); bench watchlist: Bryan Zaragoza, Gabriel Moscardo, Rafael Bauzà.", "Deportivo: starters carry the main goal usage through Bil Nsongo; bench watchlist: Yeremay Hernández, Jonathan Asp Jensen, Angeliño.", "Assist usage should flow through Javier Hernández, Mario Soriano; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Espanyol tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Deportivo is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Espanyol.", "Deportivo wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Espanyol": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Marko Dmitrović": { "player_id": 94527, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 194, "market_value": 650000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0025, "rating": 7.0011, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 39, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.6163, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 9.2295, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8507, "shots_faced": 10.8, "expected_saves": 2.65, "high_pressure_saves": 0.91, "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo, Diego Villares", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, 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"laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083629.0, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 21, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 1.7533 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083587.0, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.7879 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1310, "combined_rank_score": 568.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 180.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 957.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0011, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marko Dmitrović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mario Gila", "ranking": 1305 }, { "player_name": "Son Heung Min", "ranking": 1306 }, { "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking": 1307 }, { "player_name": "Emil Audero", "ranking": 1308 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Haraslín", "ranking": 1309 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tino Livramento", "ranking": 1311 }, { "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking": 1312 }, { "player_name": "Cecilio Waterman", "ranking": 1313 }, { "player_name": "Javier Guerra", "ranking": 1314 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Gonçalves", "ranking": 1315 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9979, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Espanyol", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 44 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Espanyol, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.0052, "goals_prevented": 0.0025, "rating": 7.0011, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.5859, "accurate_pass": 16.4781, "total_long_balls": 14.4926, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4232, "touches": 38.9317, "clearances": 1.0705, "ball_recovery": 10.9523, "high_claims": 1.8074, "punches": 0.6176, "aerial_won": 0.2246, "sweeper_actions": 1.6054, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4353, "saves_inside_box": 2.0161, "possession_lost": 9.2489, "duels_won": 0.3388, "duels_lost": 0.2334, "total_contest": 0.0922, "won_contest": 0.0922, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1592, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6673, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3167 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": 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"rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 8.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 13.3167, "accurateLongBalls": 5.4232, "possessionLostCtrl": 9.2489, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.0773, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.735, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.4434 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.005192756652832, "model_output": 3.0052, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9989, "goals_prevented": 0.0025, "rating": 7.0011, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.5322, "accurate_pass": 16.4435, "total_long_balls": 14.4622, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4118, "touches": 38.8499, "clearances": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 10.9293, "high_claims": 1.8036, "punches": 0.6163, "aerial_won": 0.2241, "sweeper_actions": 1.602, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4323, "saves_inside_box": 2.0119, "possession_lost": 9.2295, "duels_won": 0.3381, "duels_lost": 0.2329, "total_contest": 0.092, "won_contest": 0.092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1589, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2887 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 650000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0133)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0166, "goals_prevented": 0.0025, "rating": 7.0011, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.5322, "accurate_pass": 16.4435, "total_long_balls": 14.4622, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4118, "touches": 38.8499, "clearances": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 10.9293, "high_claims": 1.8036, "punches": 0.6163, "aerial_won": 0.2241, "sweeper_actions": 1.602, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4323, "saves_inside_box": 2.0119, "possession_lost": 9.2295, "duels_won": 0.3381, "duels_lost": 0.2329, "total_contest": 0.092, "won_contest": 0.092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1568, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2887 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0133, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9989, "after": 3.0166 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.0166, "goals_prevented": 0.0025, "rating": 7.0011, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.5322, "accurate_pass": 16.4435, "total_long_balls": 14.4622, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4118, "touches": 38.8499, "clearances": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 10.9293, "high_claims": 1.8036, "punches": 0.6163, "aerial_won": 0.2241, "sweeper_actions": 1.602, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4323, "saves_inside_box": 2.0119, "possession_lost": 9.2295, "duels_won": 0.3381, "duels_lost": 0.2329, "total_contest": 0.092, "won_contest": 0.092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1568, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2887 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0166, "goals_prevented": 0.0025, "rating": 7.0011, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.5322, "accurate_pass": 16.4435, "total_long_balls": 14.4622, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4118, "touches": 38.8499, "clearances": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 10.9293, "high_claims": 1.8036, "punches": 0.6163, "aerial_won": 0.2241, "sweeper_actions": 1.602, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4323, "saves_inside_box": 2.0119, "possession_lost": 9.2295, "duels_won": 0.3381, "duels_lost": 0.2329, "total_contest": 0.092, "won_contest": 0.092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1568, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2887, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8507, "shots_faced": 8.1, "expected_saves": 1.98, "high_pressure_saves": 0.68, "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo, Diego Villares", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo, Diego Villares", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.8507 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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0.038094 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.023187 } ], "others_margin": 0.064038 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.892202854156494, "model_output": 6.8922, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0463 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0077 } ], "others": 0.0494, "total": 6.8922, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.046304 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011633 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.011103 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009514 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.007684 } ], "others_margin": 0.049475 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 45, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0617, "tackles": 1.1177, "tackles_won": 0.6404, "clearances": 6.3908, "aerial_won": 2.7807, "total_shots": 1.0818, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 45.5277, "accurate_pass": 35.7502, "duels_won": 3.6669, "total_long_balls": 7.663, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9437, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2734, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3758, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2542, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3744, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0179, "touches": 60.5383, "possession_lost": 10.7849, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 2.8212, "aerial_lost": 1.2118, "total_contest": 0.0395, "won_contest": 0.0161, "ball_recovery": 2.8671, "challenges_lost": 0.5601, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 0.317, "blocks": 0.6688, "goals": 0.1595, "goal_rate": 0.1595, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0747, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "shots_on_target": 0.2368, "big_chances_created": 0.0017, "xgot": 0.088, "ball_carries": 11.417, "total_progression": 34.6083, "progressive_carries": 0.2867, "key_pass": 0.0514, "shots_off_target": 0.845 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 930000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0617, "tackles": 1.1177, "tackles_won": 0.6404, "clearances": 6.3908, "aerial_won": 2.7807, "total_shots": 1.0818, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 45.5277, "accurate_pass": 35.7502, "duels_won": 3.6669, "total_long_balls": 7.663, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9437, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2734, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3758, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2542, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3744, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0179, "touches": 60.5383, "possession_lost": 10.7849, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 2.8212, "aerial_lost": 1.2118, "total_contest": 0.0395, "won_contest": 0.0161, "ball_recovery": 2.8671, "challenges_lost": 0.5601, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 0.317, "blocks": 0.6688, "goals": 0.1595, "goal_rate": 0.1595, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0747, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "shots_on_target": 0.2368, "big_chances_created": 0.0017, "xgot": 0.088, "ball_carries": 11.417, "total_progression": 34.6083, "progressive_carries": 0.2867, "key_pass": 0.0514, "shots_off_target": 0.845 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0617, "tackles": 1.1177, "tackles_won": 0.6404, "clearances": 6.3908, "aerial_won": 2.7807, "total_shots": 1.0818, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 45.5277, "accurate_pass": 35.7502, "duels_won": 3.6669, "total_long_balls": 7.663, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9437, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2734, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3758, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2542, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3744, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0179, "touches": 60.5383, "possession_lost": 10.7849, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 2.8212, "aerial_lost": 1.2118, "total_contest": 0.0395, "won_contest": 0.0161, "ball_recovery": 2.8671, "challenges_lost": 0.5601, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 0.317, "blocks": 0.6688, "goals": 0.1595, "goal_rate": 0.1595, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0747, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "shots_on_target": 0.2368, "big_chances_created": 0.0017, "xgot": 0.088, "ball_carries": 11.417, "total_progression": 34.6083, "progressive_carries": 0.2867, "key_pass": 0.0514, "shots_off_target": 0.845, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817, "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0617, "tackles": 1.1177, "tackles_won": 0.6404, "clearances": 6.3908, "aerial_won": 2.7807, "total_shots": 1.0818, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 45.5277, "accurate_pass": 35.7502, "duels_won": 3.6669, "total_long_balls": 7.663, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9437, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2734, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3758, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2542, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3744, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0179, "touches": 60.5383, "possession_lost": 10.7849, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 2.8212, "aerial_lost": 1.2118, "total_contest": 0.0395, "won_contest": 0.0161, "ball_recovery": 2.8671, "challenges_lost": 0.5601, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 0.317, "blocks": 0.6688, "goal_rate": 0.1595, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0747, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "shots_on_target": 0.2368, "big_chances_created": 0.0017, "xgot": 0.088, "ball_carries": 11.417, "total_progression": 34.6083, "progressive_carries": 0.2867, "key_pass": 0.0514, "shots_off_target": 0.845, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817, "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.0006, xG scale 1.8499, xA scale 1.8499, team xA 1.30 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0617, "tackles": 1.1177, "tackles_won": 0.6404, "clearances": 6.3908, "aerial_won": 2.7807, "total_shots": 1.0818, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 45.5277, "accurate_pass": 35.7502, "duels_won": 3.6669, "total_long_balls": 7.663, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9437, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2734, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3758, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2542, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3744, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0179, "touches": 60.5383, "possession_lost": 10.7849, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 2.8212, "aerial_lost": 1.2118, "total_contest": 0.0395, "won_contest": 0.0161, "ball_recovery": 2.8671, "challenges_lost": 0.5601, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 0.317, "blocks": 0.6688, "goal_rate": 0.1595, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1382, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "shots_on_target": 0.2368, "big_chances_created": 0.0017, "xgot": 0.1628, "ball_carries": 11.417, "total_progression": 34.6083, "progressive_carries": 0.2867, "key_pass": 0.0514, "shots_off_target": 0.845, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817, "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.851, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7036, "team_expected_assists": 1.3016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7032, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8499, "xa_scale": 1.8499, "opponent_lambda": 1.132, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0747, "after": 0.1382 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0235, "after": 0.0435 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0617, "tackles": 1.1177, "tackles_won": 0.6404, "clearances": 6.3908, "aerial_won": 2.7807, "total_shots": 1.0818, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 45.5277, "accurate_pass": 35.7502, "duels_won": 3.6669, "total_long_balls": 7.663, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9437, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2734, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3758, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2542, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3744, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0179, "touches": 60.5383, "possession_lost": 10.7849, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 2.8212, "aerial_lost": 1.2118, "total_contest": 0.0395, "won_contest": 0.0161, "ball_recovery": 2.8671, "challenges_lost": 0.5601, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 0.317, "blocks": 0.6688, "goal_rate": 0.1595, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1382, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "shots_on_target": 0.2368, "big_chances_created": 0.0017, "xgot": 0.1628, "ball_carries": 11.417, "total_progression": 34.6083, "progressive_carries": 0.2867, "key_pass": 0.0514, "shots_off_target": 0.845, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817, "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3325, "fifa_rank": 1948.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0617, "tackles": 1.1177, "tackles_won": 0.6404, "clearances": 6.3908, "aerial_won": 2.7807, "total_shots": 1.0818, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 45.5277, "accurate_pass": 35.7502, "duels_won": 3.6669, "total_long_balls": 7.663, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9437, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2734, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3758, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2542, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3744, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0179, "touches": 60.5383, "possession_lost": 10.7849, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 2.8212, "aerial_lost": 1.2118, "total_contest": 0.0395, "won_contest": 0.0161, "ball_recovery": 2.8671, "challenges_lost": 0.5601, "fouls": 0.8983, "fouls_drawn": 0.317, "blocks": 0.6688, "goal_rate": 0.1595, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1382, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "shots_on_target": 0.2368, "big_chances_created": 0.0017, "xgot": 0.1628, "ball_carries": 11.417, "total_progression": 34.6083, "progressive_carries": 0.2867, "key_pass": 0.0514, "shots_off_target": 0.845, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817, "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1291, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1291, "goal_rate": 0.1595, "scorer_weight": 0.1727, "squad_weight_total": 1.9266, "weight_share": 0.0897, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7794, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.3317, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0617, "tackles": 1.1177, "tackles_won": 0.6404, "clearances": 6.3908, "aerial_won": 2.7807, "total_shots": 1.0818, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 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0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1208 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0464 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0585, "total": 0.3574, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.120806 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.046389 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02149 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.016504 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.014123 } ], "others_margin": -0.058546 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.666306972503662, "model_output": 6.6663, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.055, "total": 6.6663, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018634 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01752 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014844 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.013546 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01308 } ], "others_margin": -0.05485 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"opponent_faced": "Marc Casadó", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Marc Casadó", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8687, "tackles": 1.8685, "tackles_won": 1.1553, "clearances": 2.911, "aerial_won": 0.7791, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.6663, "minutes": 75.48, "total_pass": 30.2862, "accurate_pass": 24.6855, "duels_won": 3.2824, "total_long_balls": 3.3268, "accurate_long_balls": 1.049, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4669, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6829, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0026, "crosses_total": 0.1643, "crosses_accurate": 0.0731, "touches": 44.2078, "possession_lost": 7.4955, "dispossessed": 0.4062, "duels_lost": 2.9709, "aerial_lost": 1.1207, "total_contest": 0.2987, "won_contest": 0.0731, "ball_recovery": 3.638, "challenges_lost": 0.5358, "fouls": 0.9718, "fouls_drawn": 0.5027, "blocks": 0.0731, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0069, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.706, "total_progression": 67.0638, "progressive_carries": 1.3839, "key_pass": 0.1929, "shots_off_target": 0.355, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499, "opponent_faced": "Marc Casadó", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.0006, xG scale 1.8499, xA scale 1.8499, team xA 1.30 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8687, "tackles": 1.8685, "tackles_won": 1.1553, "clearances": 2.911, "aerial_won": 0.7791, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.6663, "minutes": 75.48, "total_pass": 30.2862, "accurate_pass": 24.6855, "duels_won": 3.2824, "total_long_balls": 3.3268, "accurate_long_balls": 1.049, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4669, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6829, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0026, "crosses_total": 0.1643, "crosses_accurate": 0.0731, "touches": 44.2078, "possession_lost": 7.4955, "dispossessed": 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0.8787, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.851, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7036, "team_expected_assists": 1.3016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7032, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8499, "xa_scale": 1.8499, "opponent_lambda": 1.132, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0069, "after": 0.0128 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0272, "after": 0.0503 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.153 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0926 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0544 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0478 } ], "others": 0.047, "total": 1.7266, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105889 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.059029 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.035124 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.032013 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.028034 } ], "others_margin": 0.027546 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.37373602390289307, "model_output": 0.3737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0255, "total": 0.3737, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.116123 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049075 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021422 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.014854 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.008483 } ], "others_margin": -0.025413 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.739703178405762, "model_output": 6.7397, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": 0.0103, "total": 6.7397, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018185 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013258 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.008992 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.007885 } ], "others_margin": 0.010243 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.449)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8863, "tackles": 1.0534, "tackles_won": 0.6176, "clearances": 5.0945, "aerial_won": 1.7221, "total_shots": 0.3728, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 86.19, "total_pass": 45.0941, "accurate_pass": 38.841, "duels_won": 3.4439, "total_long_balls": 5.9294, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0462, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.8302, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1466, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0107, "crosses_total": 0.024, "crosses_accurate": 0.0083, "touches": 56.5441, "possession_lost": 6.9985, "dispossessed": 0.0934, "duels_lost": 3.4598, "aerial_lost": 1.587, "total_contest": 0.4059, "won_contest": 0.4059, "ball_recovery": 2.7409, "challenges_lost": 0.4387, "fouls": 1.4847, "fouls_drawn": 0.3095, "blocks": 0.4861, "goals": 0.0, 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{ "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8863, "after": 0.8764 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6176, "after": 0.6233 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8764, "tackles": 1.0534, "tackles_won": 0.6233, "clearances": 5.0945, "aerial_won": 1.7221, "total_shots": 0.3767, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 86.19, "total_pass": 45.0941, "accurate_pass": 38.841, "duels_won": 3.4439, "total_long_balls": 5.9294, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0462, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.8302, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1466, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0107, "crosses_total": 0.0237, "crosses_accurate": 0.0083, "touches": 56.5441, "possession_lost": 6.9985, "dispossessed": 0.0934, "duels_lost": 3.4598, "aerial_lost": 1.587, "total_contest": 0.4059, "won_contest": 0.4059, "ball_recovery": 2.7409, "challenges_lost": 0.4387, "fouls": 1.5058, "fouls_drawn": 0.306, 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Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8764, "tackles": 1.0534, "tackles_won": 0.6233, "clearances": 5.0945, "aerial_won": 1.7221, "total_shots": 0.3767, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 86.19, "total_pass": 45.0941, "accurate_pass": 38.841, "duels_won": 3.4439, "total_long_balls": 5.9294, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0462, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.8302, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1466, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0107, "crosses_total": 0.0237, "crosses_accurate": 0.0083, "touches": 56.5441, "possession_lost": 6.9985, "dispossessed": 0.0934, "duels_lost": 3.4598, "aerial_lost": 1.587, "total_contest": 0.4059, "won_contest": 0.4059, "ball_recovery": 2.7409, "challenges_lost": 0.4387, "fouls": 1.5058, "fouls_drawn": 0.306, "blocks": 0.4861, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0069, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0045, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "shots_on_target": 0.2015, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0102, "ball_carries": 13.5091, "total_progression": 50.2793, "progressive_carries": 0.468, "key_pass": 0.0486, "shots_off_target": 0.1752, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817, "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.0006, xG scale 1.8499, xA scale 1.8499, team xA 1.30 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8764, "tackles": 1.0534, "tackles_won": 0.6233, "clearances": 5.0945, "aerial_won": 1.7221, "total_shots": 0.3767, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 86.19, "total_pass": 45.0941, "accurate_pass": 38.841, "duels_won": 3.4439, "total_long_balls": 5.9294, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0462, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.8302, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1466, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0107, "crosses_total": 0.0237, "crosses_accurate": 0.0083, "touches": 56.5441, "possession_lost": 6.9985, "dispossessed": 0.0934, "duels_lost": 3.4598, "aerial_lost": 1.587, "total_contest": 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22.1753, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9214, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1187, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3985, "crosses_total": 2.5757, "crosses_accurate": 0.2668, "touches": 63.5902, "possession_lost": 14.1223, "dispossessed": 0.3414, "duels_lost": 2.9515, "aerial_lost": 0.4666, "total_contest": 0.7906, "won_contest": 0.3767, "ball_recovery": 4.153, "challenges_lost": 0.9121, "fouls": 0.8176, "fouls_drawn": 0.0815, "blocks": 0.1638, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1126, "assist_rate": 0.1126, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0722, "shots_on_target": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.2073, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.4768, "total_progression": 25.4043, "progressive_carries": 0.2036, "key_pass": 0.7682, "shots_off_target": 0.3763 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:04:53.735026+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 631, "rows": 22117 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1522, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1294, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-18", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.11, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0935, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0795, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0675, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0574, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0488, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0415, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0353, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.9457, "aerialWon": 0.8716, "totalClearance_p90": 2.0131, "totalTackle": 2.3991, "totalTackle_p90": 2.5772 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1011422872543335, "model_output": 1.1011, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1221 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0656 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0153 } ], "others": 0.0874, "total": 1.1011, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.137969, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131195 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.063986 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.036166 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.022576 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.015173 } ], "others_margin": 0.082704 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 2.253880023956299, "model_output": 2.2539, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1818 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.1137 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.1149 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.1022 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0569 } ], "others": 0.2969, "total": 2.2539, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.1231 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.069935 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.06603 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.055273 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.029514 } ], "others_margin": 0.141299 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.452951192855835, "model_output": 1.453, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1951 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1127 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0874 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0797 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0706 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0519 } ], "others": 0.2025, "total": 1.453, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124705 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.08705 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.073285 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.060689 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.042368 } ], "others_margin": 0.150115 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.6816351413726807, "model_output": 2.6816, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.4812 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3832 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2794 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2542 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1725 } ], "others": -0.275, "total": 2.6816, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.151847 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122726 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.087959 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.087362 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.060119 } ], "others_margin": -0.097634 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9099187850952148, "model_output": 0.9099, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2425 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1531 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1129 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0895 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0549 } ], "others": -0.1131, "total": 0.9099, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.194859 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12735 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.09229 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.07975 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.052266 } ], "others_margin": -0.117179 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4406197965145111, "model_output": 0.4406, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0552 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0306 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0383, "total": 0.4406, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055193 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.030558 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027164 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.011636 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.011306 } ], "others_margin": -0.03843 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.727827548980713, "model_output": 6.7278, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0152, "total": 6.7278, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014635 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012668 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01053 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009569 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.008432 } ], "others_margin": -0.01512 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0017, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.103, "tackles": 2.2577, "tackles_won": 1.4554, "clearances": 2.6862, "aerial_won": 0.9115, "total_shots": 0.4414, "rating": 6.7278, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.3658, "accurate_pass": 33.3763, "duels_won": 4.2434, "total_long_balls": 6.3258, "accurate_long_balls": 2.542, "total_own_half_passes": 22.213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9536, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.423, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 63.6983, "possession_lost": 14.1463, "dispossessed": 0.342, "duels_lost": 2.9565, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 0.7919, "won_contest": 0.3773, "ball_recovery": 4.1601, "challenges_lost": 0.9137, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "blocks": 0.1641, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1128, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "shots_on_target": 0.0644, "big_chances_created": 0.2077, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.4929, "total_progression": 25.4475, "progressive_carries": 0.2039, "key_pass": 0.7695, "shots_off_target": 0.3769 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11600000, "quality_factor": 0.5411, "boost_factor": 1.0017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.103, "tackles": 2.2577, "tackles_won": 1.4554, "clearances": 2.6862, "aerial_won": 0.9115, "total_shots": 0.4414, "rating": 6.7278, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.3658, "accurate_pass": 33.3763, "duels_won": 4.2434, "total_long_balls": 6.3258, "accurate_long_balls": 2.542, "total_own_half_passes": 22.213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9536, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.423, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 63.6983, "possession_lost": 14.1463, "dispossessed": 0.342, "duels_lost": 2.9565, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 0.7919, "won_contest": 0.3773, "ball_recovery": 4.1601, "challenges_lost": 0.9137, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "blocks": 0.1641, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1128, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "shots_on_target": 0.0644, "big_chances_created": 0.2077, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.4929, "total_progression": 25.4475, "progressive_carries": 0.2039, "key_pass": 0.7695, "shots_off_target": 0.3769 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.103, "tackles": 2.2577, "tackles_won": 1.4554, "clearances": 2.6862, "aerial_won": 0.9115, "total_shots": 0.4414, "rating": 6.7278, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.3658, "accurate_pass": 33.3763, "duels_won": 4.2434, "total_long_balls": 6.3258, "accurate_long_balls": 2.542, "total_own_half_passes": 22.213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9536, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.423, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 63.6983, "possession_lost": 14.1463, "dispossessed": 0.342, "duels_lost": 2.9565, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 0.7919, "won_contest": 0.3773, "ball_recovery": 4.1601, "challenges_lost": 0.9137, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "blocks": 0.1641, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1128, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "shots_on_target": 0.0644, "big_chances_created": 0.2077, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.4929, "total_progression": 25.4475, "progressive_carries": 0.2039, "key_pass": 0.7695, "shots_off_target": 0.3769, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637, "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.103, "tackles": 2.2577, "tackles_won": 1.4554, "clearances": 2.6862, "aerial_won": 0.9115, "total_shots": 0.4414, "rating": 6.7278, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.3658, "accurate_pass": 33.3763, "duels_won": 4.2434, "total_long_balls": 6.3258, "accurate_long_balls": 2.542, "total_own_half_passes": 22.213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9536, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.423, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 63.6983, "possession_lost": 14.1463, "dispossessed": 0.342, "duels_lost": 2.9565, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 0.7919, "won_contest": 0.3773, "ball_recovery": 4.1601, "challenges_lost": 0.9137, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "blocks": 0.1641, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "shots_on_target": 0.0644, "big_chances_created": 0.2077, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.4929, "total_progression": 25.4475, "progressive_carries": 0.2039, "key_pass": 0.7695, "shots_off_target": 0.3769, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637, "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.0006, xG scale 1.8499, xA scale 1.8499, team xA 1.30 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.103, "tackles": 2.2577, "tackles_won": 1.4554, "clearances": 2.6862, "aerial_won": 0.9115, "total_shots": 0.4414, "rating": 6.7278, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.3658, "accurate_pass": 33.3763, "duels_won": 4.2434, "total_long_balls": 6.3258, "accurate_long_balls": 2.542, "total_own_half_passes": 22.213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9536, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.423, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 63.6983, "possession_lost": 14.1463, "dispossessed": 0.342, "duels_lost": 2.9565, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 0.7919, "won_contest": 0.3773, "ball_recovery": 4.1601, "challenges_lost": 0.9137, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "blocks": 0.1641, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "expected_assists": 0.1337, "shots_on_target": 0.0644, "big_chances_created": 0.2077, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 9.4929, "total_progression": 25.4475, "progressive_carries": 0.2039, "key_pass": 0.7695, "shots_off_target": 0.3769, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637, "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.851, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7036, "team_expected_assists": 1.3016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7032, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8499, "xa_scale": 1.8499, "opponent_lambda": 1.132, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0154, "after": 0.0285 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0723, "after": 0.1337 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.103, "tackles": 2.2577, "tackles_won": 1.4554, "clearances": 2.6862, "aerial_won": 0.9115, "total_shots": 0.4414, "rating": 6.7278, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.3658, "accurate_pass": 33.3763, "duels_won": 4.2434, "total_long_balls": 6.3258, "accurate_long_balls": 2.542, "total_own_half_passes": 22.213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9536, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.423, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 63.6983, "possession_lost": 14.1463, "dispossessed": 0.342, "duels_lost": 2.9565, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 0.7919, "won_contest": 0.3773, "ball_recovery": 4.1601, "challenges_lost": 0.9137, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "blocks": 0.1641, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "expected_assists": 0.1337, "shots_on_target": 0.0644, "big_chances_created": 0.2077, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 9.4929, "total_progression": 25.4475, "progressive_carries": 0.2039, "key_pass": 0.7695, "shots_off_target": 0.3769, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637, "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3658, "fifa_rank": 2417.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.103, "tackles": 2.2577, "tackles_won": 1.4554, "clearances": 2.6862, "aerial_won": 0.9115, "total_shots": 0.4414, "rating": 6.7278, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.3658, "accurate_pass": 33.3763, "duels_won": 4.2434, "total_long_balls": 6.3258, "accurate_long_balls": 2.542, "total_own_half_passes": 22.213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9536, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.423, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 63.6983, "possession_lost": 14.1463, "dispossessed": 0.342, "duels_lost": 2.9565, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 0.7919, "won_contest": 0.3773, "ball_recovery": 4.1601, "challenges_lost": 0.9137, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "blocks": 0.1641, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "expected_assists": 0.1337, "shots_on_target": 0.0644, "big_chances_created": 0.2077, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 9.4929, "total_progression": 25.4475, "progressive_carries": 0.2039, "key_pass": 0.7695, "shots_off_target": 0.3769, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637, "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0281, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0281, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0228, "squad_weight_total": 1.9266, "weight_share": 0.0118, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7794, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.3317, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.103, "tackles": 2.2577, "tackles_won": 1.4554, "clearances": 2.6862, "aerial_won": 0.9115, "total_shots": 0.4414, "rating": 6.7278, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.3658, "accurate_pass": 33.3763, "duels_won": 4.2434, "total_long_balls": 6.3258, "accurate_long_balls": 2.542, "total_own_half_passes": 22.213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9536, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.423, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 63.6983, "possession_lost": 14.1463, "dispossessed": 0.342, "duels_lost": 2.9565, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 0.7919, "won_contest": 0.3773, "ball_recovery": 4.1601, "challenges_lost": 0.9137, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "blocks": 0.1641, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "expected_assists": 0.1337, "shots_on_target": 0.0644, "big_chances_created": 0.2077, "xgot": 0.0068, "ball_carries": 9.4929, "total_progression": 25.4475, "progressive_carries": 0.2039, "key_pass": 0.7695, "shots_off_target": 0.3769, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637, "opponent_faced": "Mario Soriano", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0281, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1251, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1251, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "provider_weight": 0.1671, "squad_weight_total": 1.316, "weight_share": 0.127, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.2916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2916, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.208, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Javier Hernández": { "player_id": 1514913, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 28, "height": 175, "market_value": 6400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2333, "assist_rate": 0.2261, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1981, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7415, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 13.3843, "dispossessed": 2.6368, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1286, "ball_carries": 13, 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0.152441 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.066366 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.040538 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.025566 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.021974 } ], "others_margin": -0.006551 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.741545677185059, "model_output": 6.7415, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0464 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0431, "total": 6.7415, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.046379 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035783 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.026976 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024957 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.011437 } ], "others_margin": -0.043115 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.479)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1833, "expected_assists": 0.1261, "assists": 0.1971, "assist_rate": 0.1971, "expected_goals": 0.1079, "goals": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "shots_on_target": 0.3667, "total_shots": 1.1503, "rating": 6.7415, "minutes": 79.05, "total_pass": 18.5683, "accurate_pass": 14.697, "duels_won": 3.8789, "total_long_balls": 1.0481, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4692, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9225, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7746, "crosses_total": 2.0082, "crosses_accurate": 0.4941, "touches": 36.8839, "possession_lost": 13.3843, "dispossessed": 2.6368, "duels_lost": 7.1881, "aerial_won": 0.1103, "aerial_lost": 0.5885, "interceptions": 0.6599, "tackles_won": 0.8289, "tackles": 1.0226, "clearances": 0.0354, "total_contest": 3.0881, "won_contest": 1.5257, "challenges_lost": 1.0815, "fouls": 1.4545, "fouls_drawn": 1.2202, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.07, "ball_carries": 13.2916, "total_progression": 80.0327, "progressive_carries": 2.3164, "shots_off_target": 0.7835 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6400000, "quality_factor": 0.4793, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0339)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1833, "expected_assists": 0.1261, "assists": 0.2261, "assist_rate": 0.2261, "expected_goals": 0.1079, "goals": 0.0732, "goal_rate": 0.0732, "shots_on_target": 0.3662, "total_shots": 1.1473, "rating": 6.7415, "minutes": 79.05, "total_pass": 18.5683, "accurate_pass": 14.697, "duels_won": 3.8789, "total_long_balls": 1.0481, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4692, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9225, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7746, "crosses_total": 1.9521, "crosses_accurate": 0.4941, "touches": 36.8839, "possession_lost": 13.3843, "dispossessed": 2.6368, "duels_lost": 7.1881, "aerial_won": 0.1103, "aerial_lost": 0.5885, "interceptions": 0.6376, "tackles_won": 0.8246, "tackles": 1.0226, "clearances": 0.0354, "total_contest": 3.0881, "won_contest": 1.5257, "challenges_lost": 1.0815, "fouls": 1.5004, "fouls_drawn": 1.2622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.07, "ball_carries": 13.2916, "total_progression": 80.0327, "progressive_carries": 2.3164, "shots_off_target": 0.7835 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0339, "history_matches": 11, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8783, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.0082, "after": 1.9521 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.4545, "after": 1.5004 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2202, "after": 1.2622 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1971, "after": 0.2261 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.6599, "after": 0.6376 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1833, "expected_assists": 0.1261, "assists": 0.2261, "assist_rate": 0.2261, "expected_goals": 0.1079, "goals": 0.0732, "goal_rate": 0.0732, "shots_on_target": 0.3662, "total_shots": 1.1497, "rating": 6.7415, "minutes": 79.05, "total_pass": 18.5683, "accurate_pass": 14.697, "duels_won": 3.8789, "total_long_balls": 1.0481, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4692, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9225, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7746, "crosses_total": 1.9521, "crosses_accurate": 0.4941, "touches": 36.8839, "possession_lost": 13.3843, "dispossessed": 2.6368, "duels_lost": 7.1881, "aerial_won": 0.1103, "aerial_lost": 0.5885, "interceptions": 0.6376, "tackles_won": 0.8246, "tackles": 1.0226, "clearances": 0.0354, "total_contest": 3.0881, "won_contest": 1.5257, "challenges_lost": 1.0815, "fouls": 1.5004, "fouls_drawn": 1.2622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.07, "ball_carries": 13.2916, "total_progression": 80.0327, "progressive_carries": 2.3164, "shots_off_target": 0.7835 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1833, "expected_assists": 0.1261, "assists": 0.2261, "assist_rate": 0.2261, "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "shots_on_target": 0.3635, "total_shots": 1.1412, "rating": 6.7415, "minutes": 79.05, "total_pass": 18.5683, "accurate_pass": 14.697, "duels_won": 3.8789, "total_long_balls": 1.0481, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4692, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9225, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7746, "crosses_total": 1.9521, "crosses_accurate": 0.4941, "touches": 36.8839, "possession_lost": 13.3843, "dispossessed": 2.6368, "duels_lost": 7.1881, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5885, "interceptions": 0.6376, "tackles_won": 0.8246, "tackles": 1.0226, "clearances": 0.0354, "total_contest": 3.0881, "won_contest": 1.5257, "challenges_lost": 1.0815, "fouls": 1.5004, "fouls_drawn": 1.2622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0695, "ball_carries": 13.2916, "total_progression": 80.0327, "progressive_carries": 2.3164, "shots_off_target": 0.7777, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9926, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giacomo Quagliata", "opponent_faced": "Giacomo Quagliata", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Giacomo Quagliata", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9926, "skill_edge": 0.003, "height_edge": -0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.4793, "defender_skill": 0.4727, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "market_value": 4099999, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4727 } ], "xg_override": 0.1071 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1103, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1497, "after": 1.1412 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7835, "after": 0.7777 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1833, "expected_assists": 0.1261, "assist_rate": 0.2261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3635, "total_shots": 1.1412, "rating": 6.7415, "minutes": 79.05, "total_pass": 18.5683, "accurate_pass": 14.697, "duels_won": 3.8789, "total_long_balls": 1.0481, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4692, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9225, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7746, "crosses_total": 1.9521, "crosses_accurate": 0.4941, "touches": 36.8839, "possession_lost": 13.3843, "dispossessed": 2.6368, "duels_lost": 7.1881, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5885, "interceptions": 0.6376, "tackles_won": 0.8246, "tackles": 1.0226, "clearances": 0.0354, "total_contest": 3.0881, "won_contest": 1.5257, "challenges_lost": 1.0815, "fouls": 1.5004, "fouls_drawn": 1.2622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0695, "ball_carries": 13.2916, "total_progression": 80.0327, "progressive_carries": 2.3164, "shots_off_target": 0.7777, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9926, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giacomo Quagliata", "opponent_faced": "Giacomo Quagliata", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.0006, xG scale 1.8499, xA scale 1.8499, team xA 1.30 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1833, "expected_assists": 0.2333, "assist_rate": 0.2261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1981, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3635, "total_shots": 1.1412, "rating": 6.7415, "minutes": 79.05, "total_pass": 18.5683, "accurate_pass": 14.697, "duels_won": 3.8789, "total_long_balls": 1.0481, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4692, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9225, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7746, "crosses_total": 1.9521, "crosses_accurate": 0.4941, "touches": 36.8839, "possession_lost": 13.3843, "dispossessed": 2.6368, "duels_lost": 7.1881, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5885, "interceptions": 0.6376, "tackles_won": 0.8246, "tackles": 1.0226, "clearances": 0.0354, "total_contest": 3.0881, "won_contest": 1.5257, "challenges_lost": 1.0815, "fouls": 1.5004, "fouls_drawn": 1.2622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1286, "ball_carries": 13.2916, "total_progression": 80.0327, "progressive_carries": 2.3164, "shots_off_target": 0.7777, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9926, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giacomo Quagliata", "opponent_faced": "Giacomo Quagliata", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.851, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7036, "team_expected_assists": 1.3016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7032, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8499, "xa_scale": 1.8499, "opponent_lambda": 1.132, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1071, "after": 0.1981 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1261, "after": 0.2333 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1833, "expected_assists": 0.2333, "assist_rate": 0.2261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1981, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3635, "total_shots": 1.1412, "rating": 6.7415, "minutes": 79.05, "total_pass": 18.5683, "accurate_pass": 14.697, "duels_won": 3.8789, "total_long_balls": 1.0481, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4692, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9225, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7746, "crosses_total": 1.9521, "crosses_accurate": 0.4941, "touches": 36.8839, "possession_lost": 13.3843, "dispossessed": 2.6368, "duels_lost": 7.1881, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5885, "interceptions": 0.6376, "tackles_won": 0.8246, "tackles": 1.0226, "clearances": 0.0354, "total_contest": 3.0881, "won_contest": 1.5257, "challenges_lost": 1.0815, "fouls": 1.5004, "fouls_drawn": 1.2622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3368, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1286, "ball_carries": 13.2916, "total_progression": 80.0327, "progressive_carries": 2.3164, "shots_off_target": 0.7777, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9926, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giacomo Quagliata", "opponent_faced": "Giacomo Quagliata", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 198, "fifa_rank": 93.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1833, "expected_assists": 0.2333, "assist_rate": 0.2261, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1981, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3635, "total_shots": 1.1412, "rating": 6.7415, "minutes": 79.05, "total_pass": 18.5683, "accurate_pass": 14.697, "duels_won": 3.8789, "total_long_balls": 1.0481, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4692, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9225, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7746, "crosses_total": 1.9521, "crosses_accurate": 0.4941, "touches": 36.8839, "possession_lost": 13.3843, "dispossessed": 2.6368, "duels_lost": 7.1881, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5885, "interceptions": 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"predicted": 0.6481408476829529, "model_output": 0.6481, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2856 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1247 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0604 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.058 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0462 } ], "others": -0.0113, "total": 0.6481, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.28564 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124666 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.060352 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0011, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5333, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "assists": 0.0533, "assist_rate": 0.0533, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goals": 0.0482, "goal_rate": 0.0482, "shots_on_target": 0.1587, "total_shots": 0.6489, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 76.25, "total_pass": 28.7724, "accurate_pass": 25.0204, "duels_won": 2.6207, "total_long_balls": 2.6409, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4721, "total_own_half_passes": 14.323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7322, "crosses_total": 0.1435, "crosses_accurate": 0.0155, "touches": 38.8051, "possession_lost": 6.2514, "dispossessed": 0.5459, "duels_lost": 4.1779, "aerial_won": 0.5985, "aerial_lost": 0.8803, "interceptions": 0.9504, "tackles_won": 0.4444, "tackles": 0.8765, "clearances": 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6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0146, "total": 6.7979, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042263 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031801 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014417 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012823 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.007159 } ], "others_margin": -0.01462 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9956, quality 0.461)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8885, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assists": 0.0994, "assist_rate": 0.0994, "expected_goals": 0.111, "goals": 0.1287, "goal_rate": 0.1287, "shots_on_target": 0.5284, "total_shots": 1.4967, "rating": 6.7979, "minutes": 75.89, "total_pass": 23.9293, "accurate_pass": 15.5238, "duels_won": 5.8927, "total_long_balls": 1.2332, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4435, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1888, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9218, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6019, "crosses_total": 0.6013, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.4975, "possession_lost": 12.5878, "dispossessed": 0.9121, "duels_lost": 5.3637, "aerial_won": 0.9722, "aerial_lost": 0.7676, "interceptions": 0.3462, "tackles_won": 1.5078, "tackles": 2.921, "clearances": 0.5261, "total_contest": 1.9735, "won_contest": 1.0622, "challenges_lost": 1.8113, "fouls": 1.1742, "fouls_drawn": 0.9373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1939, "xgot": 0.0709, "ball_carries": 12.0791, "total_progression": 49.631, "progressive_carries": 1.8352, "shots_off_target": 0.9683 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4900000, "quality_factor": 0.4609, "boost_factor": 0.9956, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0361)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8885, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assists": 0.0958, "assist_rate": 0.0958, "expected_goals": 0.111, "goals": 0.1362, "goal_rate": 0.1362, "shots_on_target": 0.5577, "total_shots": 1.5154, "rating": 6.7979, "minutes": 75.89, "total_pass": 23.9293, "accurate_pass": 15.5238, "duels_won": 5.8927, "total_long_balls": 1.2332, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4435, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1888, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9218, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6019, "crosses_total": 0.6039, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.4975, "possession_lost": 12.5878, "dispossessed": 0.9121, "duels_lost": 5.3637, "aerial_won": 0.9722, "aerial_lost": 0.7676, "interceptions": 0.3581, "tackles_won": 1.5143, "tackles": 2.921, "clearances": 0.5261, "total_contest": 1.9735, "won_contest": 1.0622, "challenges_lost": 1.8113, "fouls": 1.2049, "fouls_drawn": 0.9156, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1939, "xgot": 0.0709, "ball_carries": 12.0791, "total_progression": 49.631, "progressive_carries": 1.8352, "shots_off_target": 0.9683 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0361, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8432, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1742, "after": 1.2049 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5284, "after": 0.5577 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9373, "after": 0.9156 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4967, "after": 1.5154 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3462, "after": 0.3581 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1287, "after": 0.1362 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.5078, "after": 1.5143 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8885, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assists": 0.0958, "assist_rate": 0.0958, "expected_goals": 0.111, "goals": 0.1362, "goal_rate": 0.1362, "shots_on_target": 0.5577, "total_shots": 1.526, "rating": 6.7979, "minutes": 75.89, "total_pass": 23.9293, "accurate_pass": 15.5238, "duels_won": 5.8927, "total_long_balls": 1.2332, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4435, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1888, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9218, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7405, 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"shots_on_target": 0.5397, "total_shots": 1.4767, "rating": 6.7979, "minutes": 75.89, "total_pass": 23.9293, "accurate_pass": 15.5238, "duels_won": 5.8927, "total_long_balls": 1.2332, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4435, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1888, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9218, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6019, "crosses_total": 0.6039, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.4975, "possession_lost": 12.5878, "dispossessed": 0.9121, "duels_lost": 5.3637, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7676, "interceptions": 0.3581, "tackles_won": 1.5143, "tackles": 2.921, "clearances": 0.5261, "total_contest": 1.9735, "won_contest": 1.0622, "challenges_lost": 1.8113, "fouls": 1.2049, "fouls_drawn": 0.9156, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1876, "xgot": 0.0686, "ball_carries": 12.0791, "total_progression": 49.631, "progressive_carries": 1.8352, "shots_off_target": 0.937, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9677, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "opponent_faced": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9677, "skill_edge": -0.0339, "height_edge": 0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.4716, "defender_skill": 0.547, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "market_value": 10300000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.547 } ], "xg_override": 0.1074 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.9722, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.526, "after": 1.4767 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9683, "after": 0.937 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5577, "after": 0.5397 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1939, "after": 0.1876 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8885, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assist_rate": 0.0958, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1074, "goal_rate": 0.1318, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5397, "total_shots": 1.4767, "rating": 6.7979, "minutes": 75.89, "total_pass": 23.9293, "accurate_pass": 15.5238, "duels_won": 5.8927, "total_long_balls": 1.2332, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4435, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1888, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9218, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6019, "crosses_total": 0.6039, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.4975, "possession_lost": 12.5878, "dispossessed": 0.9121, "duels_lost": 5.3637, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7676, "interceptions": 0.3581, "tackles_won": 1.5143, "tackles": 2.921, "clearances": 0.5261, "total_contest": 1.9735, "won_contest": 1.0622, "challenges_lost": 1.8113, "fouls": 1.2049, "fouls_drawn": 0.9156, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1876, "xgot": 0.0686, "ball_carries": 12.0791, "total_progression": 49.631, "progressive_carries": 1.8352, "shots_off_target": 0.937, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9677, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "opponent_faced": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.0006, xG scale 1.8499, xA scale 1.8499, team xA 1.30 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8885, "expected_assists": 0.1905, "assist_rate": 0.0958, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1987, "goal_rate": 0.1318, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5397, "total_shots": 1.4767, "rating": 6.7979, "minutes": 75.89, "total_pass": 23.9293, "accurate_pass": 15.5238, "duels_won": 5.8927, "total_long_balls": 1.2332, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4435, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1888, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9218, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6019, "crosses_total": 0.6039, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.4975, "possession_lost": 12.5878, "dispossessed": 0.9121, "duels_lost": 5.3637, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7676, "interceptions": 0.3581, "tackles_won": 1.5143, "tackles": 2.921, "clearances": 0.5261, "total_contest": 1.9735, "won_contest": 1.0622, "challenges_lost": 1.8113, "fouls": 1.2049, "fouls_drawn": 0.9156, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1876, "xgot": 0.1269, "ball_carries": 12.0791, "total_progression": 49.631, "progressive_carries": 1.8352, "shots_off_target": 0.937, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9677, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "opponent_faced": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.155, "creation_factor": 0.9529 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.851, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7036, "team_expected_assists": 1.3016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7032, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8499, "xa_scale": 1.8499, "opponent_lambda": 1.132, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1074, "after": 0.1987 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.103, "after": 0.1905 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 87.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8885, "expected_assists": 0.1905, "assist_rate": 0.0958, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1987, "goal_rate": 0.1318, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5397, "total_shots": 1.4767, "rating": 6.7979, "minutes": 75.89, "total_pass": 23.9293, "accurate_pass": 15.5238, "duels_won": 5.8927, "total_long_balls": 1.2332, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4435, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1888, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9218, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6019, "crosses_total": 0.6039, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.4975, "possession_lost": 12.5878, "dispossessed": 0.9121, "duels_lost": 5.3637, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7676, "interceptions": 0.3581, "tackles_won": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0038, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3737, "goals": 0.3696, "goal_rate": 0.3696, "shots_on_target": 0.8283, "total_shots": 2.0613, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "key_pass": 0.5887, "rating": 6.7206, "minutes": 85.03, "total_pass": 10.9441, "accurate_pass": 7.4944, "duels_won": 4.2004, "total_long_balls": 0.2433, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1062, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1251, "crosses_total": 0.2263, "crosses_accurate": 0.0058, "touches": 22.5235, "possession_lost": 8.2703, "dispossessed": 0.4741, "duels_lost": 7.6069, "aerial_lost": 3.9404, "total_contest": 0.5439, "won_contest": 0.1698, "ball_recovery": 1.0389, "challenges_lost": 0.7116, "fouls": 2.2257, "fouls_drawn": 1.1099, "assists": 0.0189, "assist_rate": 0.0189, "interceptions": 0.2158, 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per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8336 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.137 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0469 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.035 } ], "others": 0.0148, "total": 0.4552, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.938032 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.295165 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.111165 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.0954 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.082854 } ], "others_margin": 0.032901 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.22250781953334808, "model_output": 0.2225, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1821 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0743 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0158 } ], "others": -0.0559, "total": 0.2225, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.182149 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.074292 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019542 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.018328 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.015811 } ], "others_margin": -0.05598 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.814501762390137, "model_output": 6.8145, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0105, "total": 6.8145, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.057751 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.018844 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013338 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.012059 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.011644 } ], "others_margin": -0.010263 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9950, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5657, "tackles": 0.4808, "tackles_won": 0.2948, "clearances": 2.205, "aerial_won": 0.4529, "total_shots": 0.2214, "rating": 6.8145, "minutes": 14.78, "total_pass": 28.1261, "accurate_pass": 22.1613, "duels_won": 3.1001, "total_long_balls": 5.8527, "accurate_long_balls": 1.62, "total_own_half_passes": 21.1985, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.1671, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9943, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.4479, "possession_lost": 6.7848, "dispossessed": 0.2396, "duels_lost": 1.0859, "aerial_lost": 0.2501, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.644, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5961, "fouls_drawn": 0.6149, "blocks": 1.5136, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9943, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.4479, "possession_lost": 6.7848, "dispossessed": 0.2396, "duels_lost": 1.0859, "aerial_lost": 0.2501, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.644, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5905, "fouls_drawn": 0.6089, "blocks": 1.5136, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1769, "total_progression": 17.6905, "progressive_carries": 0.2037, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2214 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0256, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1642, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5657, "after": 0.5512 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6149, "after": 0.6089 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"name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0442, "total": 0.3653, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.821473 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.057525 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.030759 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.025989 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.020798 } ], "others_margin": -0.114315 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.2480007410049438, "model_output": 1.248, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0617 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0784 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0602 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0432 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0413 } ], "others": 0.0345, "total": 1.248, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.925299 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.059635 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.048308 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.03618 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.034616 } ], "others_margin": 0.027967 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6595161557197571, "model_output": 0.6595, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7225 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0315 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 0.6595, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.749668 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.049929 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.040239 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.021529 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.018046 } ], "others_margin": -0.011061 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.24555161595344543, "model_output": 0.2456, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2337 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0122 } ], "others": -0.0639, "total": 0.2456, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.233663 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.017628 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.016713 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.015456 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.012167 } ], "others_margin": -0.063997 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.787655830383301, "model_output": 6.7877, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": 0.0016, "total": 6.7877, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.027155 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.022273 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015358 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010586 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.008441 } ], "others_margin": 0.001498 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9962, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4052, "tackles": 0.5658, "tackles_won": 0.364, "clearances": 1.2433, "aerial_won": 0.657, "total_shots": 0.2447, "rating": 6.7877, "minutes": 21.47, "total_pass": 11.3731, "accurate_pass": 8.8669, "duels_won": 1.5879, "total_long_balls": 2.3093, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3046, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8498, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4274, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4395, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.6274, "possession_lost": 3.1227, "dispossessed": 0.1941, "duels_lost": 1.1791, "aerial_lost": 0.3343, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8448, "challenges_lost": 0.2283, "fouls": 0.4224, "fouls_drawn": 0.2804, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4737, "total_progression": 8.1253, "progressive_carries": 0.1941, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2447 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3300000, "quality_factor": 0.4412, "boost_factor": 0.9962, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0260)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3988, "tackles": 0.5658, "tackles_won": 0.3587, "clearances": 1.2433, "aerial_won": 0.657, "total_shots": 0.2383, "rating": 6.7877, "minutes": 21.47, "total_pass": 11.3731, "accurate_pass": 8.8669, "duels_won": 1.5879, "total_long_balls": 2.3093, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3046, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8498, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4274, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4395, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.6274, "possession_lost": 3.1227, "dispossessed": 0.1941, "duels_lost": 1.1791, "aerial_lost": 0.3343, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8448, "challenges_lost": 0.2283, "fouls": 0.4114, "fouls_drawn": 0.2793, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4737, "total_progression": 8.1253, "progressive_carries": 0.1941, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2447 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.026, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2386, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4224, "after": 0.4114 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4052, "after": 0.3988 }, { 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0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1983, "total_progression": 5.142, "progressive_carries": 0.1228, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.59 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.59, "projection_minutes": 21.47, "minutes_scale": 0.6328, "appearance_probability": 0.217 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2524, "tackles": 0.3581, "tackles_won": 0.227, "clearances": 0.7868, "aerial_won": 0.4158, "total_shots": 0.1549, "rating": 6.7877, "minutes": 13.59, "total_pass": 7.1973, "accurate_pass": 5.6113, "duels_won": 1.0049, "total_long_balls": 1.4614, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8256, "total_own_half_passes": 3.702, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4347, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4953, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1766, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.1552, "possession_lost": 1.9762, "dispossessed": 0.1941, "duels_lost": 0.7462, "aerial_lost": 0.3343, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.2283, "fouls": 0.2603, "fouls_drawn": 0.1768, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1983, "total_progression": 5.142, "progressive_carries": 0.1228, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1549, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.59 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2524, "tackles": 0.3581, "tackles_won": 0.227, "clearances": 0.7868, "aerial_won": 0.4158, "total_shots": 0.1549, "rating": 6.7877, "minutes": 13.59, "total_pass": 7.1973, "accurate_pass": 5.6113, "duels_won": 1.0049, "total_long_balls": 1.4614, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8256, "total_own_half_passes": 3.702, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4347, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4953, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1766, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.1552, "possession_lost": 1.9762, "dispossessed": 0.1941, "duels_lost": 0.7462, "aerial_lost": 0.3343, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5346, "challenges_lost": 0.2283, "fouls": 0.2603, "fouls_drawn": 0.1768, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1983, "total_progression": 5.142, "progressive_carries": 0.1228, 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0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3666 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1904 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0637 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 0.3661, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.366641 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.190385 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063742 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.034937 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.020316 } ], "others_margin": -0.012647 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.633292198181152, "model_output": 6.6333, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0786 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0549 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0571, "total": 6.6333, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078618 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054942 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037436 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015242 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011336 } ], "others_margin": -0.057023 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2003, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "assists": 0.0286, "assist_rate": 0.0286, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.1035, "total_shots": 0.3655, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 19.18, "total_pass": 7.3563, "accurate_pass": 6.4658, "duels_won": 2.8941, "total_long_balls": 0.685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4927, "total_own_half_passes": 4.711, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3262, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1397, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.1959, "possession_lost": 1.728, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 1.5225, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7321, "tackles": 2.1621, "clearances": 0.9244, "total_contest": 0.4187, "won_contest": 0.2263, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.2263, "fouls_drawn": 0.3133, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 3.1695, "total_progression": 7.7827, "progressive_carries": 0.2662, "shots_off_target": 0.262 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9983, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2003, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "assists": 0.0283, "assist_rate": 0.0283, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.1067, "total_shots": 0.3661, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 19.18, "total_pass": 7.3563, "accurate_pass": 6.4658, "duels_won": 2.8941, "total_long_balls": 0.685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4927, "total_own_half_passes": 4.711, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3262, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1397, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.1959, "possession_lost": 1.728, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 1.5225, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7291, "tackles": 2.1621, "clearances": 0.9244, "total_contest": 0.4187, "won_contest": 0.2263, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.2241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3102, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 3.1695, "total_progression": 7.7827, "progressive_carries": 0.2662, "shots_off_target": 0.262 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2131, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.2 to 34.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goals": 0.0582, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "total_shots": 0.5531, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 11.0344, "accurate_pass": 9.6987, "duels_won": 4.3411, "total_long_balls": 1.0275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.739, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2096, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.7938, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2.2837, "aerial_won": 0.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 3.2431, "clearances": 1.3866, "total_contest": 0.628, "won_contest": 0.3395, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.3362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4653, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 4.7543, "total_progression": 11.6741, "progressive_carries": 0.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 34.74, "projection_minutes": 19.18, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.696 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goals": 0.0582, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "total_shots": 0.5531, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 11.0344, "accurate_pass": 9.6987, "duels_won": 4.3411, "total_long_balls": 1.0275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.739, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2096, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.7938, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2.2837, "aerial_won": 0.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 3.2431, "clearances": 1.3866, "total_contest": 0.628, "won_contest": 0.3395, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.3362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4653, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 4.7543, "total_progression": 11.6741, "progressive_carries": 0.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "total_shots": 0.5531, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 11.0344, "accurate_pass": 9.6987, "duels_won": 4.3411, "total_long_balls": 1.0275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.739, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2096, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.7938, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2.2837, "aerial_won": 0.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 3.2431, "clearances": 1.3866, "total_contest": 0.628, "won_contest": 0.3395, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.3362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4653, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 4.7543, "total_progression": 11.6741, "progressive_carries": 0.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.0006, xG scale 1.8499, xA scale 1.8499, team xA 1.30 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "total_shots": 0.5531, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 11.0344, "accurate_pass": 9.6987, "duels_won": 4.3411, "total_long_balls": 1.0275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.739, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2096, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.7938, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2.2837, "aerial_won": 0.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 3.2431, "clearances": 1.3866, "total_contest": 0.628, "won_contest": 0.3395, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.3362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4653, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 4.7543, "total_progression": 11.6741, "progressive_carries": 0.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.851, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7036, "team_expected_assists": 1.3016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7032, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8499, "xa_scale": 1.8499, "opponent_lambda": 1.132, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.696 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0512, "after": 0.0659 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "total_shots": 0.5531, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 11.0344, "accurate_pass": 9.6987, "duels_won": 4.3411, "total_long_balls": 1.0275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.739, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2096, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.7938, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2.2837, "aerial_won": 0.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 3.2431, "clearances": 1.3866, "total_contest": 0.628, "won_contest": 0.3395, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.3362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4653, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 4.7543, "total_progression": 11.6741, "progressive_carries": 0.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4340, "fifa_rank": 4267.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "total_shots": 0.5531, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 11.0344, "accurate_pass": 9.6987, "duels_won": 4.3411, "total_long_balls": 1.0275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.739, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2096, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.7938, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2.2837, "aerial_won": 0.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 3.2431, "clearances": 1.3866, "total_contest": 0.628, "won_contest": 0.3395, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.3362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4653, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 4.7543, "total_progression": 11.6741, "progressive_carries": 0.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0629, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0629, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "scorer_weight": 0.0705, "squad_weight_total": 1.9266, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0787 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.045 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0145, "total": 6.6835, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078708 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045008 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019814 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009443 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.006459 } ], "others_margin": -0.014517 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2919, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "expected_goals": 0.023, "goals": 0.0302, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "shots_on_target": 0.1179, "total_shots": 0.2785, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 20.06, "total_pass": 10.128, "accurate_pass": 8.6956, "duels_won": 1.6931, "total_long_balls": 1.8663, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0967, "total_own_half_passes": 2.985, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.985, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7104, "crosses_total": 1.0476, "crosses_accurate": 0.3848, "touches": 16.2636, "possession_lost": 3.4036, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5205, "aerial_won": 0.3848, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9813, "tackles": 0.9813, "clearances": 1.0476, "total_contest": 0.3271, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.7696, "fouls_drawn": 0.7118, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.343, "total_progression": 18.8768, "progressive_carries": 0.9899, "shots_off_target": 0.1606 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9899, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0152)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2919, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "assists": 0.0467, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "expected_goals": 0.023, "goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0297, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.2743, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 20.06, "total_pass": 10.128, "accurate_pass": 8.6956, "duels_won": 1.6931, "total_long_balls": 1.8663, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0967, "total_own_half_passes": 2.985, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.985, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7104, "crosses_total": 1.0462, "crosses_accurate": 0.3848, "touches": 16.2636, "possession_lost": 3.4036, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5205, "aerial_won": 0.3848, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9809, "tackles": 0.9813, "clearances": 1.0476, "total_contest": 0.3271, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.7676, "fouls_drawn": 0.7107, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.343, "total_progression": 18.8768, "progressive_carries": 0.9899, "shots_off_target": 0.1606 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0152, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2229, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.1 to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "assists": 0.0512, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, "total_long_balls": 2.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2022, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.83, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2598, "crosses_total": 1.1469, "crosses_accurate": 0.4218, "touches": 17.8283, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_won": 0.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0753, "tackles": 1.0757, "clearances": 1.1484, "total_contest": 0.3586, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.8415, "fouls_drawn": 0.7791, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8571, "total_progression": 20.693, "progressive_carries": 1.0851, "shots_off_target": 0.1761, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.99, "projection_minutes": 20.06, "minutes_scale": 1.0962, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "assists": 0.0512, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, "total_long_balls": 2.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2022, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.83, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2598, "crosses_total": 1.1469, "crosses_accurate": 0.4218, "touches": 17.8283, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_won": 0.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0753, "tackles": 1.0757, "clearances": 1.1484, "total_contest": 0.3586, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.8415, "fouls_drawn": 0.7791, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8571, "total_progression": 20.693, "progressive_carries": 1.0851, "shots_off_target": 0.1761, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, "total_long_balls": 2.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2022, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.83, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2598, "crosses_total": 1.1469, "crosses_accurate": 0.4218, "touches": 17.8283, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_won": 0.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0753, "tackles": 1.0757, "clearances": 1.1484, "total_contest": 0.3586, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.8415, "fouls_drawn": 0.7791, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8571, "total_progression": 20.693, "progressive_carries": 1.0851, "shots_off_target": 0.1761, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.0006, xG scale 1.8499, xA scale 1.8499, team xA 1.30 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, "total_long_balls": 2.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2022, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.83, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2598, "crosses_total": 1.1469, "crosses_accurate": 0.4218, "touches": 17.8283, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_won": 0.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0753, "tackles": 1.0757, "clearances": 1.1484, "total_contest": 0.3586, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.8415, "fouls_drawn": 0.7791, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8571, "total_progression": 20.693, "progressive_carries": 1.0851, "shots_off_target": 0.1761, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 1.2163 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.851, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7036, "team_expected_assists": 1.3016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7032, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8499, "xa_scale": 1.8499, "opponent_lambda": 1.132, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0252, "after": 0.0323 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0332, "after": 0.0425 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, "total_long_balls": 2.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2022, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.83, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2598, "crosses_total": 1.1469, "crosses_accurate": 0.4218, "touches": 17.8283, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_won": 0.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0753, "tackles": 1.0757, "clearances": 1.1484, "total_contest": 0.3586, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.8415, "fouls_drawn": 0.7791, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8571, "total_progression": 20.693, "progressive_carries": 1.0851, "shots_off_target": 0.1761, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 1.2163, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 997, "fifa_rank": 770.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, "total_long_balls": 2.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2022, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.83, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2598, "crosses_total": 1.1469, "crosses_accurate": 0.4218, "touches": 17.8283, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_won": 0.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0753, "tackles": 1.0757, "clearances": 1.1484, "total_contest": 0.3586, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.8415, "fouls_drawn": 0.7791, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8571, "total_progression": 20.693, "progressive_carries": 1.0851, "shots_off_target": 0.1761, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0316, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 1.2163, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0316, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "scorer_weight": 0.0355, "squad_weight_total": 1.9266, "weight_share": 0.0184, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7794, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.3317, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, 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"importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0797 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": 0.0122, "total": 6.7662, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.079678 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.018532 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.015316 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013564 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013036 } ], "others_margin": 0.012127 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9994, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0722, "goals": 0.0858, "goal_rate": 0.0858, "shots_on_target": 0.275, "total_shots": 0.8823, "expected_assists": 0.0773, "key_pass": 0.5744, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 24.0, "total_pass": 10.8195, "accurate_pass": 7.816, "duels_won": 1.4834, "total_long_balls": 1.3741, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3209, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4091, "crosses_total": 1.3128, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1202, "possession_lost": 5.9438, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.2664, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4014, "won_contest": 0.6187, "ball_recovery": 1.3465, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0532, "fouls_drawn": 0.6426, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2969, "tackles_won": 0.1063, "tackles": 0.2221, "clearances": 0.1601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0151, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 9.8406, "total_progression": 66.7779, "progressive_carries": 2.8341, "shots_off_target": 0.6073 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9994, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goals": 0.0912, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0822, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0161, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.51, "projection_minutes": 24.0, "minutes_scale": 1.063, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goals": 0.0912, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0822, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0161, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0822, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0161, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.0006, xG scale 1.8499, xA scale 1.8499, team xA 1.30 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0865, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1144, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.851, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7036, "team_expected_assists": 1.3016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7032, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8499, "xa_scale": 1.8499, "opponent_lambda": 1.132, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0865, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1144, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3033, "fifa_rank": 1513.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0865, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0752, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1144, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "scorer_weight": 0.0899, "squad_weight_total": 1.9266, "weight_share": 0.0467, "finishing_factor": 1.1144, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7794, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.3317, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0865, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0752, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0802, "finishing_factor": 1.1144, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0802, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0692, "squad_weight_total": 1.316, "weight_share": 0.0526, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.2916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2916, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.208, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Gabriel Moscardo": { "player_id": 1485309, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 185, "market_value": 7500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0629, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0215, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421099.0, "match_date": "2026-10-30", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2003, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "assists": 0.0286, "assist_rate": 0.0286, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.1035, "total_shots": 0.3655, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 19.18, "total_pass": 7.3563, "accurate_pass": 6.4658, "duels_won": 2.8941, "total_long_balls": 0.685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4927, "total_own_half_passes": 4.711, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3262, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1397, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.1959, "possession_lost": 1.728, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 1.5225, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7321, "tackles": 2.1621, "clearances": 0.9244, "total_contest": 0.4187, "won_contest": 0.2263, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.2263, "fouls_drawn": 0.3133, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 3.1695, "total_progression": 7.7827, "progressive_carries": 0.2662, "shots_off_target": 0.262 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9983, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2003, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "assists": 0.0283, "assist_rate": 0.0283, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.1067, "total_shots": 0.3661, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 19.18, "total_pass": 7.3563, "accurate_pass": 6.4658, "duels_won": 2.8941, "total_long_balls": 0.685, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4927, "total_own_half_passes": 4.711, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3262, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1397, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.1959, "possession_lost": 1.728, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 1.5225, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7291, "tackles": 2.1621, "clearances": 0.9244, "total_contest": 0.4187, "won_contest": 0.2263, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.2241, "fouls_drawn": 0.3102, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 3.1695, "total_progression": 7.7827, "progressive_carries": 0.2662, "shots_off_target": 0.262 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2131, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.2 to 34.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goals": 0.0582, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "total_shots": 0.5531, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 11.0344, "accurate_pass": 9.6987, "duels_won": 4.3411, "total_long_balls": 1.0275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.739, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2096, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.7938, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2.2837, "aerial_won": 0.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 3.2431, "clearances": 1.3866, "total_contest": 0.628, "won_contest": 0.3395, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.3362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4653, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 4.7543, "total_progression": 11.6741, "progressive_carries": 0.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 34.74, "projection_minutes": 19.18, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.696 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goals": 0.0582, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "total_shots": 0.5531, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 11.0344, "accurate_pass": 9.6987, "duels_won": 4.3411, "total_long_balls": 1.0275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.739, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2096, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.7938, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2.2837, "aerial_won": 0.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 3.2431, "clearances": 1.3866, "total_contest": 0.628, "won_contest": 0.3395, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.3362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4653, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 4.7543, "total_progression": 11.6741, "progressive_carries": 0.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "total_shots": 0.5531, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 11.0344, "accurate_pass": 9.6987, "duels_won": 4.3411, "total_long_balls": 1.0275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.739, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2096, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.7938, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2.2837, "aerial_won": 0.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 3.2431, "clearances": 1.3866, "total_contest": 0.628, "won_contest": 0.3395, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.3362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4653, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 4.7543, "total_progression": 11.6741, "progressive_carries": 0.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.0006, xG scale 1.8499, xA scale 1.8499, team xA 1.30 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "total_shots": 0.5531, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 11.0344, "accurate_pass": 9.6987, "duels_won": 4.3411, "total_long_balls": 1.0275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.739, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2096, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.7938, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2.2837, "aerial_won": 0.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 3.2431, "clearances": 1.3866, "total_contest": 0.628, "won_contest": 0.3395, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.3362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4653, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 4.7543, "total_progression": 11.6741, "progressive_carries": 0.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.851, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7036, "team_expected_assists": 1.3016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7032, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8499, "xa_scale": 1.8499, "opponent_lambda": 1.132, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.696 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0512, "after": 0.0659 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "total_shots": 0.5531, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 11.0344, "accurate_pass": 9.6987, "duels_won": 4.3411, "total_long_balls": 1.0275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.739, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2096, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.7938, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2.2837, "aerial_won": 0.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 3.2431, "clearances": 1.3866, "total_contest": 0.628, "won_contest": 0.3395, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.3362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4653, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 4.7543, "total_progression": 11.6741, "progressive_carries": 0.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4340, "fifa_rank": 4267.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "total_shots": 0.5531, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 11.0344, "accurate_pass": 9.6987, "duels_won": 4.3411, "total_long_balls": 1.0275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.739, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2096, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.7938, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2.2837, "aerial_won": 0.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 3.2431, "clearances": 1.3866, "total_contest": 0.628, "won_contest": 0.3395, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.3362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4653, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 4.7543, "total_progression": 11.6741, "progressive_carries": 0.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0629, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0629, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "scorer_weight": 0.0705, "squad_weight_total": 1.9266, "weight_share": 0.0366, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "appearance_weight": 0.696, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7794, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.3317, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3004, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "total_shots": 0.5531, "rating": 6.6333, "minutes": 34.74, "total_pass": 11.0344, "accurate_pass": 9.6987, "duels_won": 4.3411, "total_long_balls": 1.0275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.739, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4893, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2096, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.7938, "possession_lost": 2.592, "dispossessed": 0.6451, "duels_lost": 2.2837, "aerial_won": 0.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.1924, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0937, "tackles": 3.2431, "clearances": 1.3866, "total_contest": 0.628, "won_contest": 0.3395, "challenges_lost": 0.2662, "fouls": 0.3362, "fouls_drawn": 0.4653, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 4.7543, "total_progression": 11.6741, "progressive_carries": 0.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0629, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0215, "finishing_factor": 1.0692, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0215, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "provider_weight": 0.0272, "squad_weight_total": 1.316, "weight_share": 0.0207, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.696, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.2916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2916, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.208, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Rafael Bauzà": { "player_id": 1841365, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 183, "market_value": 1100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, 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"name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.344 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2358 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0408 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0327 } ], "others": -0.0134, "total": 0.2813, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.343992 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.23583 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040754 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.036915 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.03274 } ], "others_margin": -0.0134 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.683456897735596, "model_output": 6.6835, "scale": "0-10", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2919, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "expected_goals": 0.023, "goals": 0.0302, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "shots_on_target": 0.1179, "total_shots": 0.2785, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 20.06, "total_pass": 10.128, "accurate_pass": 8.6956, "duels_won": 1.6931, "total_long_balls": 1.8663, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0967, "total_own_half_passes": 2.985, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.985, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7104, "crosses_total": 1.0476, "crosses_accurate": 0.3848, "touches": 16.2636, "possession_lost": 3.4036, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5205, "aerial_won": 0.3848, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9813, "tackles": 0.9813, "clearances": 1.0476, 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2.985, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.985, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7104, "crosses_total": 1.0462, "crosses_accurate": 0.3848, "touches": 16.2636, "possession_lost": 3.4036, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5205, "aerial_won": 0.3848, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9809, "tackles": 0.9813, "clearances": 1.0476, "total_contest": 0.3271, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.7676, "fouls_drawn": 0.7107, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.343, "total_progression": 18.8768, "progressive_carries": 0.9899, "shots_off_target": 0.1606 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0152, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2229, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.1 to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "assists": 0.0512, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, "total_long_balls": 2.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2022, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.83, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2598, "crosses_total": 1.1469, "crosses_accurate": 0.4218, "touches": 17.8283, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_won": 0.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0753, "tackles": 1.0757, "clearances": 1.1484, "total_contest": 0.3586, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.8415, "fouls_drawn": 0.7791, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8571, "total_progression": 20.693, "progressive_carries": 1.0851, "shots_off_target": 0.1761, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.99, "projection_minutes": 20.06, "minutes_scale": 1.0962, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "assists": 0.0512, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, "total_long_balls": 2.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2022, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.83, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2598, "crosses_total": 1.1469, "crosses_accurate": 0.4218, "touches": 17.8283, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_won": 0.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0753, "tackles": 1.0757, "clearances": 1.1484, "total_contest": 0.3586, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.8415, "fouls_drawn": 0.7791, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8571, "total_progression": 20.693, "progressive_carries": 1.0851, "shots_off_target": 0.1761, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, "total_long_balls": 2.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2022, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.83, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2598, "crosses_total": 1.1469, "crosses_accurate": 0.4218, "touches": 17.8283, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_won": 0.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0753, "tackles": 1.0757, "clearances": 1.1484, "total_contest": 0.3586, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.8415, "fouls_drawn": 0.7791, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8571, "total_progression": 20.693, "progressive_carries": 1.0851, "shots_off_target": 0.1761, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.0006, xG scale 1.8499, xA scale 1.8499, team xA 1.30 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, "total_long_balls": 2.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2022, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.83, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2598, "crosses_total": 1.1469, "crosses_accurate": 0.4218, "touches": 17.8283, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_won": 0.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0753, "tackles": 1.0757, "clearances": 1.1484, "total_contest": 0.3586, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.8415, "fouls_drawn": 0.7791, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8571, "total_progression": 20.693, "progressive_carries": 1.0851, "shots_off_target": 0.1761, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 1.2163 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.851, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7036, "team_expected_assists": 1.3016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7032, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8499, "xa_scale": 1.8499, "opponent_lambda": 1.132, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0252, "after": 0.0323 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0332, "after": 0.0425 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, "total_long_balls": 2.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2022, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.83, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2598, "crosses_total": 1.1469, "crosses_accurate": 0.4218, "touches": 17.8283, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_won": 0.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0753, "tackles": 1.0757, "clearances": 1.1484, "total_contest": 0.3586, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.8415, "fouls_drawn": 0.7791, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8571, "total_progression": 20.693, "progressive_carries": 1.0851, "shots_off_target": 0.1761, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 1.2163, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 997, "fifa_rank": 770.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, "total_long_balls": 2.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2022, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.83, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2598, "crosses_total": 1.1469, "crosses_accurate": 0.4218, "touches": 17.8283, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_won": 0.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0753, "tackles": 1.0757, "clearances": 1.1484, "total_contest": 0.3586, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.8415, "fouls_drawn": 0.7791, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8571, "total_progression": 20.693, "progressive_carries": 1.0851, "shots_off_target": 0.1761, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0316, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 1.2163, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0316, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "scorer_weight": 0.0355, "squad_weight_total": 1.9266, "weight_share": 0.0184, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7794, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.3317, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.32, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1273, "total_shots": 0.3034, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 11.1024, "accurate_pass": 9.5322, "duels_won": 1.856, "total_long_balls": 2.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2022, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.83, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2598, "crosses_total": 1.1469, "crosses_accurate": 0.4218, "touches": 17.8283, "possession_lost": 3.7311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.763, "aerial_won": 0.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.7696, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0753, "tackles": 1.0757, "clearances": 1.1484, "total_contest": 0.3586, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6541, "fouls": 0.8415, "fouls_drawn": 0.7791, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8571, "total_progression": 20.693, "progressive_carries": 1.0851, "shots_off_target": 0.1761, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0316, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0412, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 1.2163, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0412, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "provider_weight": 0.0517, "squad_weight_total": 1.316, "weight_share": 0.0393, "creation_factor": 1.2163, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.2916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2916, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.208, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Bryan Zaragoza": { "player_id": 1084730, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 165, "market_value": 7500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0865, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 71, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, 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"history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9994, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0722, "goals": 0.0858, "goal_rate": 0.0858, "shots_on_target": 0.275, "total_shots": 0.8823, "expected_assists": 0.0773, "key_pass": 0.5744, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 24.0, "total_pass": 10.8195, "accurate_pass": 7.816, "duels_won": 1.4834, "total_long_balls": 1.3741, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3209, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4091, "crosses_total": 1.3128, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1202, "possession_lost": 5.9438, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.2664, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4014, "won_contest": 0.6187, "ball_recovery": 1.3465, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0532, "fouls_drawn": 0.6426, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2969, "tackles_won": 0.1063, "tackles": 0.2221, "clearances": 0.1601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0151, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 9.8406, "total_progression": 66.7779, "progressive_carries": 2.8341, "shots_off_target": 0.6073 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9994, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goals": 0.0912, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0822, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0161, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.51, "projection_minutes": 24.0, "minutes_scale": 1.063, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goals": 0.0912, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0822, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0161, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0822, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0161, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.0006, xG scale 1.8499, xA scale 1.8499, team xA 1.30 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0865, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1144, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.851, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7036, "team_expected_assists": 1.3016, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7032, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8499, "xa_scale": 1.8499, "opponent_lambda": 1.132, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0865, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1144, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3033, "fifa_rank": 1513.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0865, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0752, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1144, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "scorer_weight": 0.0899, "squad_weight_total": 1.9266, "weight_share": 0.0467, "finishing_factor": 1.1144, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7794, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.7794, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.3317, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2295 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0912, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9378, "expected_assists": 0.0865, "key_pass": 0.6106, "rating": 6.7662, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 11.5007, "accurate_pass": 8.3081, "duels_won": 1.5768, "total_long_balls": 1.4606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4041, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8126, "crosses_total": 1.3954, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.198, "possession_lost": 6.318, "dispossessed": 0.2483, "duels_lost": 1.3461, "aerial_lost": 0.1198, "total_contest": 1.4896, "won_contest": 0.6577, "ball_recovery": 1.4313, "challenges_lost": 0.0626, "fouls": 0.0565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6831, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3156, "tackles_won": 0.113, "tackles": 0.2361, "clearances": 0.1702, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.3794, "ball_carries": 10.4601, "total_progression": 70.982, "progressive_carries": 3.0125, "shots_off_target": 0.6455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.711, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0752, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0802, "finishing_factor": 1.1144, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0802, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0692, "squad_weight_total": 1.316, "weight_share": 0.0526, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.2916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2916, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.208, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.85, "expected_assists": 1.3, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 378, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 20, "avg_rating": 6.81, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } }, "Deportivo": 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.86, "goals_prevented": 0.0178, "rating": 7.0582, "minutes": 84.76, "total_pass": 35.5684, "accurate_pass": 25.3181, "total_long_balls": 15.062, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0259, "touches": 42.2347, "clearances": 0.545, "ball_recovery": 6.3109, "high_claims": 0.8158, "punches": 0.342, "aerial_won": 0.1038, "sweeper_actions": 0.8358, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8358, "saves_inside_box": 1.3945, "possession_lost": 10.5202, "duels_won": 0.2644, "duels_lost": 0.0261, "total_contest": 0.0251, "won_contest": 0.0251, "fouls": 0.0011, "fouls_drawn": 0.1341, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.384, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4025, "shots_faced": 13.3, "expected_saves": 3.25, "high_pressure_saves": 1.12, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Álex Calatrava", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.86, "goals_prevented": 0.0178, "rating": 7.0582, "minutes": 84.76, "total_pass": 35.5684, "accurate_pass": 25.3181, "total_long_balls": 15.062, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0259, "touches": 42.2347, "clearances": 0.545, "ball_recovery": 6.3109, "high_claims": 0.8158, "punches": 0.342, "aerial_won": 0.1038, "sweeper_actions": 0.8358, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8358, "saves_inside_box": 1.3945, "possession_lost": 10.5202, "duels_won": 0.2644, "duels_lost": 0.0261, "total_contest": 0.0251, "won_contest": 0.0251, "fouls": 0.0011, "fouls_drawn": 0.1341, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.384, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4025, "shots_faced": 17.6, "expected_saves": 4.31, "high_pressure_saves": 1.48, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Álex Calatrava", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.132, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7291, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5542, "team_expected_assists": 0.8605, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5526, "xa_scale": 1.5526, "opponent_lambda": 1.851, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 13.3, "after": 17.6 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.25, "after": 4.31 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.12, "after": 1.48 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.86, "goals_prevented": 0.0178, "rating": 7.0582, "minutes": 84.76, "total_pass": 35.5684, "accurate_pass": 25.3181, "total_long_balls": 15.062, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0259, "touches": 42.2347, "clearances": 0.545, "ball_recovery": 6.3109, "high_claims": 0.8158, "punches": 0.342, "aerial_won": 0.1038, "sweeper_actions": 0.8358, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8358, "saves_inside_box": 1.3945, "possession_lost": 10.5202, "duels_won": 0.2644, "duels_lost": 0.0261, "total_contest": 0.0251, "won_contest": 0.0251, "fouls": 0.0011, "fouls_drawn": 0.1341, "total_own_half_passes": 25.1036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.384, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4025, "shots_faced": 17.6, "expected_saves": 4.31, "high_pressure_saves": 1.48, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Álex Calatrava", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416291.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0724, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 31, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016725 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016248 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011455 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007233 } ], "others_margin": 0.019086 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0476, "tackles": 1.8677, "tackles_won": 1.1121, "clearances": 4.176, "aerial_won": 1.2841, "total_shots": 0.44, "rating": 6.7488, "minutes": 77.77, "total_pass": 33.7654, "accurate_pass": 29.1018, "duels_won": 3.4907, "total_long_balls": 2.5871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.551, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7751, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.236, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8658, "crosses_total": 1.1315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.8651, "possession_lost": 7.8474, "dispossessed": 0.1256, "duels_lost": 3.0471, "aerial_lost": 1.3684, "total_contest": 0.5302, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8676, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.3455, "fouls_drawn": 0.6001, "blocks": 0.1068, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7527, "total_progression": 22.7353, "progressive_carries": 0.6312, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.44 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 95000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0476, "tackles": 1.8677, "tackles_won": 1.1121, "clearances": 4.176, "aerial_won": 1.2841, "total_shots": 0.44, "rating": 6.7488, "minutes": 77.77, "total_pass": 33.7654, "accurate_pass": 29.1018, "duels_won": 3.4907, "total_long_balls": 2.5871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.551, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7751, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.236, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8658, "crosses_total": 1.1315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.8651, "possession_lost": 7.8474, "dispossessed": 0.1256, "duels_lost": 3.0471, "aerial_lost": 1.3684, "total_contest": 0.5302, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8676, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.3455, "fouls_drawn": 0.6001, "blocks": 0.1068, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7527, "total_progression": 22.7353, "progressive_carries": 0.6312, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.44 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0476, "tackles": 1.8677, "tackles_won": 1.1121, "clearances": 4.176, "aerial_won": 1.2841, "total_shots": 0.44, "rating": 6.7488, "minutes": 77.77, "total_pass": 33.7654, "accurate_pass": 29.1018, "duels_won": 3.4907, "total_long_balls": 2.5871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.551, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7751, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.236, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8658, "crosses_total": 1.1315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.8651, "possession_lost": 7.8474, "dispossessed": 0.1256, "duels_lost": 3.0471, "aerial_lost": 1.3684, "total_contest": 0.5302, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8676, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.3455, "fouls_drawn": 0.6001, "blocks": 0.1068, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7527, "total_progression": 22.7353, "progressive_carries": 0.6312, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.44, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.516, "opponent_faced": "Edu Expósito", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Edu Expósito", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0476, "tackles": 1.8677, "tackles_won": 1.1121, "clearances": 4.176, "aerial_won": 1.2841, "total_shots": 0.44, "rating": 6.7488, "minutes": 77.77, "total_pass": 33.7654, "accurate_pass": 29.1018, "duels_won": 3.4907, "total_long_balls": 2.5871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.551, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7751, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.236, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8658, "crosses_total": 1.1315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.8651, "possession_lost": 7.8474, "dispossessed": 0.1256, "duels_lost": 3.0471, "aerial_lost": 1.3684, "total_contest": 0.5302, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8676, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.3455, "fouls_drawn": 0.6001, "blocks": 0.1068, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7527, "total_progression": 22.7353, "progressive_carries": 0.6312, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.44, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.516, "opponent_faced": "Edu Expósito", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0476, "tackles": 1.8677, "tackles_won": 1.1121, "clearances": 4.176, "aerial_won": 1.2841, "total_shots": 0.44, "rating": 6.7488, "minutes": 77.77, "total_pass": 33.7654, "accurate_pass": 29.1018, "duels_won": 3.4907, "total_long_balls": 2.5871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.551, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7751, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.236, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8658, "crosses_total": 1.1315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.8651, "possession_lost": 7.8474, "dispossessed": 0.1256, "duels_lost": 3.0471, "aerial_lost": 1.3684, "total_contest": 0.5302, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8676, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.3455, "fouls_drawn": 0.6001, "blocks": 0.1068, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0517, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7527, "total_progression": 22.7353, "progressive_carries": 0.6312, "key_pass": 0.0772, "shots_off_target": 0.44, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.516, "opponent_faced": "Edu Expósito", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.132, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7291, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5542, "team_expected_assists": 0.8605, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5526, "xa_scale": 1.5526, "opponent_lambda": 1.851, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0333, "after": 0.0517 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0126, "after": 0.0196 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0476, "tackles": 1.8677, "tackles_won": 1.1121, "clearances": 4.176, "aerial_won": 1.2841, "total_shots": 0.44, "rating": 6.7488, "minutes": 77.77, "total_pass": 33.7654, "accurate_pass": 29.1018, "duels_won": 3.4907, "total_long_balls": 2.5871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.551, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7751, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.236, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8658, "crosses_total": 1.1315, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.8651, "possession_lost": 7.8474, "dispossessed": 0.1256, "duels_lost": 3.0471, "aerial_lost": 1.3684, "total_contest": 0.5302, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8676, "challenges_lost": 0.6773, "fouls": 0.3455, "fouls_drawn": 0.6001, "blocks": 0.1068, 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"decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0252, "total": 6.6985, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019314 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017254 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015146 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012615 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.010807 } ], "others_margin": -0.025107 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9946, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0879, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7778, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.526, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, "accurate_pass": 20.7283, "duels_won": 3.8502, "total_long_balls": 3.3083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8126, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7353, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.993, "crosses_total": 3.6398, "crosses_accurate": 0.8195, "touches": 48.6565, "possession_lost": 12.3289, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 3.5454, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 1.0376, "won_contest": 0.6422, "ball_recovery": 3.6168, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 1.607, "fouls_drawn": 1.8879, "blocks": 0.1722, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "expected_assists": 0.0863, "shots_on_target": 0.2664, "big_chances_created": 0.3758, "xgot": 0.0415, "ball_carries": 11.6483, "total_progression": 36.4264, "progressive_carries": 0.4966, "key_pass": 1.0108, "shots_off_target": 0.2596 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9946, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0879, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7778, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.526, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, "accurate_pass": 20.7283, "duels_won": 3.8502, "total_long_balls": 3.3083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8126, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7353, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.993, "crosses_total": 3.6398, "crosses_accurate": 0.8195, "touches": 48.6565, "possession_lost": 12.3289, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 3.5454, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 1.0376, "won_contest": 0.6422, "ball_recovery": 3.6168, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 1.607, "fouls_drawn": 1.8879, "blocks": 0.1722, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "expected_assists": 0.0863, "shots_on_target": 0.2664, "big_chances_created": 0.3758, "xgot": 0.0415, "ball_carries": 11.6483, "total_progression": 36.4264, "progressive_carries": 0.4966, "key_pass": 1.0108, "shots_off_target": 0.2596 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0879, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7778, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.526, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, "accurate_pass": 20.7283, "duels_won": 3.8502, "total_long_balls": 3.3083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8126, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7353, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.993, "crosses_total": 3.6398, "crosses_accurate": 0.8195, "touches": 48.6565, "possession_lost": 12.3289, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 3.5454, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 1.0376, "won_contest": 0.6422, "ball_recovery": 3.6168, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 1.607, "fouls_drawn": 1.8879, "blocks": 0.1722, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "expected_assists": 0.0863, "shots_on_target": 0.2664, "big_chances_created": 0.3758, "xgot": 0.0415, "ball_carries": 11.6483, "total_progression": 36.4264, "progressive_carries": 0.4966, "key_pass": 1.0108, "shots_off_target": 0.2596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525, "opponent_faced": "Javier Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Javier Hernández", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0879, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7778, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.526, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, "accurate_pass": 20.7283, "duels_won": 3.8502, "total_long_balls": 3.3083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8126, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7353, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.993, "crosses_total": 3.6398, "crosses_accurate": 0.8195, "touches": 48.6565, "possession_lost": 12.3289, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 3.5454, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 1.0376, "won_contest": 0.6422, "ball_recovery": 3.6168, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 1.607, "fouls_drawn": 1.8879, "blocks": 0.1722, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "expected_assists": 0.0863, "shots_on_target": 0.2664, "big_chances_created": 0.3758, "xgot": 0.0415, "ball_carries": 11.6483, "total_progression": 36.4264, "progressive_carries": 0.4966, "key_pass": 1.0108, "shots_off_target": 0.2596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525, "opponent_faced": "Javier Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0879, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7778, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.526, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, "accurate_pass": 20.7283, "duels_won": 3.8502, "total_long_balls": 3.3083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8126, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7353, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.993, "crosses_total": 3.6398, "crosses_accurate": 0.8195, "touches": 48.6565, "possession_lost": 12.3289, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 3.5454, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 1.0376, "won_contest": 0.6422, "ball_recovery": 3.6168, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 1.607, "fouls_drawn": 1.8879, "blocks": 0.1722, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "expected_assists": 0.134, "shots_on_target": 0.2664, "big_chances_created": 0.3758, "xgot": 0.0644, "ball_carries": 11.6483, "total_progression": 36.4264, "progressive_carries": 0.4966, "key_pass": 1.0108, "shots_off_target": 0.2596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525, "opponent_faced": "Javier Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.132, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7291, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5542, "team_expected_assists": 0.8605, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5526, "xa_scale": 1.5526, "opponent_lambda": 1.851, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.027, "after": 0.0419 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0863, "after": 0.134 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0879, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7778, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.526, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, "accurate_pass": 20.7283, "duels_won": 3.8502, "total_long_balls": 3.3083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8126, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7353, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.993, "crosses_total": 3.6398, "crosses_accurate": 0.8195, "touches": 48.6565, "possession_lost": 12.3289, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 3.5454, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 1.0376, "won_contest": 0.6422, "ball_recovery": 3.6168, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 1.607, "fouls_drawn": 1.8879, "blocks": 0.1722, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "expected_assists": 0.134, "shots_on_target": 0.2664, "big_chances_created": 0.3758, "xgot": 0.0644, "ball_carries": 11.6483, "total_progression": 36.4264, "progressive_carries": 0.4966, "key_pass": 1.0108, "shots_off_target": 0.2596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525, "opponent_faced": "Javier Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4186, "fifa_rank": 3511.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0879, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7778, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.526, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, "accurate_pass": 20.7283, "duels_won": 3.8502, "total_long_balls": 3.3083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8126, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7353, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.993, "crosses_total": 3.6398, "crosses_accurate": 0.8195, "touches": 48.6565, "possession_lost": 12.3289, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 3.5454, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 1.0376, "won_contest": 0.6422, "ball_recovery": 3.6168, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 1.607, "fouls_drawn": 1.8879, 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"scorer_weight": 0.0335, "squad_weight_total": 1.1493, "weight_share": 0.0292, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.336, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.336, "runner_up": "Diego Villares", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1058 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0879, "tackles": 1.2576, "tackles_won": 0.7778, "clearances": 2.6386, "aerial_won": 1.035, "total_shots": 0.526, "rating": 6.6985, "minutes": 81.3, "total_pass": 27.4618, "accurate_pass": 20.7283, "duels_won": 3.8502, "total_long_balls": 3.3083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8126, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7353, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.993, "crosses_total": 3.6398, "crosses_accurate": 0.8195, "touches": 48.6565, "possession_lost": 12.3289, "dispossessed": 0.3093, "duels_lost": 3.5454, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 1.0376, "won_contest": 0.6422, "ball_recovery": 3.6168, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 1.607, "fouls_drawn": 1.8879, "blocks": 0.1722, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "expected_assists": 0.134, "shots_on_target": 0.2664, "big_chances_created": 0.3758, "xgot": 0.0644, "ball_carries": 11.6483, "total_progression": 36.4264, "progressive_carries": 0.4966, "key_pass": 1.0108, "shots_off_target": 0.2596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525, "opponent_faced": "Javier Hernández", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", 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"contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0015, "total": 0.5613, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060224 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021081 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.016809 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.014961 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.010721 } ], "others_margin": -0.00155 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.865774631500244, "model_output": 6.8658, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0067 } ], "others": 0.034, "total": 6.8658, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020471 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016085 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.013021 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.008851 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.006672 } ], "others_margin": 0.034063 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9816, "tackles": 1.4213, "tackles_won": 0.7946, "clearances": 5.2274, "aerial_won": 2.0517, "total_shots": 0.5604, "rating": 6.8658, "minutes": 79.83, "total_pass": 51.8874, "accurate_pass": 47.5053, "duels_won": 4.298, "total_long_balls": 5.625, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4829, "total_own_half_passes": 32.737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1785, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3268, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.1416, "possession_lost": 5.3434, "dispossessed": 0.0549, "duels_lost": 2.9423, "aerial_lost": 1.0212, "total_contest": 0.154, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 2.2976, "challenges_lost": 0.9092, "fouls": 0.9021, "fouls_drawn": 0.3535, "blocks": 0.8103, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "expected_goals": 0.0607, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "shots_on_target": 0.166, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.0451, "ball_carries": 18.0209, "total_progression": 56.4034, "progressive_carries": 0.3915, "key_pass": 0.3463, "shots_off_target": 0.3943 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9983, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9816, "tackles": 1.4213, "tackles_won": 0.7946, "clearances": 5.2274, "aerial_won": 2.0517, "total_shots": 0.5604, "rating": 6.8658, "minutes": 79.83, "total_pass": 51.8874, "accurate_pass": 47.5053, "duels_won": 4.298, "total_long_balls": 5.625, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4829, "total_own_half_passes": 32.737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1785, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3268, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.1416, "possession_lost": 5.3434, "dispossessed": 0.0549, "duels_lost": 2.9423, "aerial_lost": 1.0212, "total_contest": 0.154, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 2.2976, "challenges_lost": 0.9092, "fouls": 0.9021, "fouls_drawn": 0.3535, "blocks": 0.8103, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "expected_goals": 0.0607, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "shots_on_target": 0.166, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.0451, "ball_carries": 18.0209, "total_progression": 56.4034, "progressive_carries": 0.3915, "key_pass": 0.3463, "shots_off_target": 0.3943 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9816, "tackles": 1.4213, "tackles_won": 0.7946, "clearances": 5.2274, "aerial_won": 2.0517, "total_shots": 0.5604, "rating": 6.8658, "minutes": 79.83, "total_pass": 51.8874, "accurate_pass": 47.5053, "duels_won": 4.298, "total_long_balls": 5.625, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4829, "total_own_half_passes": 32.737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1785, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3268, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.1416, "possession_lost": 5.3434, "dispossessed": 0.0549, "duels_lost": 2.9423, "aerial_lost": 1.0212, "total_contest": 0.154, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 2.2976, "challenges_lost": 0.9092, "fouls": 0.9021, "fouls_drawn": 0.3535, "blocks": 0.8103, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "expected_goals": 0.0607, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "shots_on_target": 0.166, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.0451, "ball_carries": 18.0209, "total_progression": 56.4034, "progressive_carries": 0.3915, "key_pass": 0.3463, "shots_off_target": 0.3943, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9816, "tackles": 1.4213, "tackles_won": 0.7946, "clearances": 5.2274, "aerial_won": 2.0517, "total_shots": 0.5604, "rating": 6.8658, "minutes": 79.83, "total_pass": 51.8874, "accurate_pass": 47.5053, "duels_won": 4.298, "total_long_balls": 5.625, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4829, "total_own_half_passes": 32.737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1785, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3268, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.1416, "possession_lost": 5.3434, "dispossessed": 0.0549, "duels_lost": 2.9423, "aerial_lost": 1.0212, "total_contest": 0.154, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 2.2976, "challenges_lost": 0.9092, "fouls": 0.9021, "fouls_drawn": 0.3535, "blocks": 0.8103, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0607, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "shots_on_target": 0.166, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.0451, "ball_carries": 18.0209, "total_progression": 56.4034, "progressive_carries": 0.3915, "key_pass": 0.3463, "shots_off_target": 0.3943, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9816, "tackles": 1.4213, "tackles_won": 0.7946, "clearances": 5.2274, "aerial_won": 2.0517, "total_shots": 0.5604, "rating": 6.8658, "minutes": 79.83, "total_pass": 51.8874, "accurate_pass": 47.5053, "duels_won": 4.298, "total_long_balls": 5.625, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4829, "total_own_half_passes": 32.737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1785, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3268, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.1416, "possession_lost": 5.3434, "dispossessed": 0.0549, "duels_lost": 2.9423, "aerial_lost": 1.0212, "total_contest": 0.154, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 2.2976, "challenges_lost": 0.9092, "fouls": 0.9021, "fouls_drawn": 0.3535, "blocks": 0.8103, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "expected_assists": 0.0283, "shots_on_target": 0.166, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.07, "ball_carries": 18.0209, "total_progression": 56.4034, "progressive_carries": 0.3915, "key_pass": 0.3463, "shots_off_target": 0.3943, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.132, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7291, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5542, "team_expected_assists": 0.8605, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5526, "xa_scale": 1.5526, "opponent_lambda": 1.851, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0607, "after": 0.0942 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0182, "after": 0.0283 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9816, "tackles": 1.4213, "tackles_won": 0.7946, "clearances": 5.2274, "aerial_won": 2.0517, "total_shots": 0.5604, "rating": 6.8658, "minutes": 79.83, "total_pass": 51.8874, "accurate_pass": 47.5053, "duels_won": 4.298, "total_long_balls": 5.625, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4829, "total_own_half_passes": 32.737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1785, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3268, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.1416, "possession_lost": 5.3434, "dispossessed": 0.0549, "duels_lost": 2.9423, "aerial_lost": 1.0212, "total_contest": 0.154, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 2.2976, "challenges_lost": 0.9092, "fouls": 0.9021, "fouls_drawn": 0.3535, "blocks": 0.8103, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "expected_assists": 0.0283, "shots_on_target": 0.166, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.07, "ball_carries": 18.0209, "total_progression": 56.4034, "progressive_carries": 0.3915, "key_pass": 0.3463, "shots_off_target": 0.3943, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 823, "fifa_rank": 412.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9816, "tackles": 1.4213, "tackles_won": 0.7946, "clearances": 5.2274, "aerial_won": 2.0517, "total_shots": 0.5604, "rating": 6.8658, "minutes": 79.83, "total_pass": 51.8874, "accurate_pass": 47.5053, "duels_won": 4.298, "total_long_balls": 5.625, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4829, "total_own_half_passes": 32.737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1785, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3268, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.1416, "possession_lost": 5.3434, "dispossessed": 0.0549, "duels_lost": 2.9423, "aerial_lost": 1.0212, "total_contest": 0.154, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 2.2976, "challenges_lost": 0.9092, "fouls": 0.9021, "fouls_drawn": 0.3535, "blocks": 0.8103, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0942, "expected_assists": 0.0283, "shots_on_target": 0.166, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.07, "ball_carries": 18.0209, "total_progression": 56.4034, "progressive_carries": 0.3915, "key_pass": 0.3463, "shots_off_target": 0.3943, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0899, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9901, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2003, "tackles": 1.6509, "tackles_won": 0.9448, "clearances": 6.1813, "aerial_won": 2.2824, "total_shots": 0.5583, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.3262, "accurate_pass": 43.8321, "duels_won": 4.7761, "total_long_balls": 10.8414, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 38.8887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9602, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8719, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2553, "possession_lost": 10.7606, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4965, "aerial_lost": 2.169, "total_contest": 0.1929, "won_contest": 0.1929, "ball_recovery": 2.8404, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.1881, "fouls_drawn": 1.1043, "blocks": 0.5302, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6921, "total_progression": 53.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.7232, "key_pass": 0.2669, "shots_off_target": 0.5583 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9901, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2003, "tackles": 1.6509, "tackles_won": 0.9448, "clearances": 6.1813, "aerial_won": 2.2824, "total_shots": 0.5583, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.3262, "accurate_pass": 43.8321, "duels_won": 4.7761, "total_long_balls": 10.8414, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 38.8887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9602, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8719, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2553, "possession_lost": 10.7606, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4965, "aerial_lost": 2.169, "total_contest": 0.1929, "won_contest": 0.1929, "ball_recovery": 2.8404, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.1881, "fouls_drawn": 1.1043, "blocks": 0.5302, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6921, "total_progression": 53.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.7232, "key_pass": 0.2669, "shots_off_target": 0.5583 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2003, "tackles": 1.6509, "tackles_won": 0.9448, "clearances": 6.1813, "aerial_won": 2.2824, "total_shots": 0.5583, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.3262, "accurate_pass": 43.8321, "duels_won": 4.7761, "total_long_balls": 10.8414, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 38.8887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9602, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8719, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2553, "possession_lost": 10.7606, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4965, "aerial_lost": 2.169, "total_contest": 0.1929, "won_contest": 0.1929, "ball_recovery": 2.8404, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.1881, "fouls_drawn": 1.1043, "blocks": 0.5302, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6921, "total_progression": 53.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.7232, "key_pass": 0.2669, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2003, "tackles": 1.6509, "tackles_won": 0.9448, "clearances": 6.1813, "aerial_won": 2.2824, "total_shots": 0.5583, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.3262, "accurate_pass": 43.8321, "duels_won": 4.7761, "total_long_balls": 10.8414, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 38.8887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9602, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8719, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2553, "possession_lost": 10.7606, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4965, "aerial_lost": 2.169, "total_contest": 0.1929, "won_contest": 0.1929, "ball_recovery": 2.8404, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.1881, "fouls_drawn": 1.1043, "blocks": 0.5302, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6921, "total_progression": 53.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.7232, "key_pass": 0.2669, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2003, "tackles": 1.6509, "tackles_won": 0.9448, "clearances": 6.1813, "aerial_won": 2.2824, "total_shots": 0.5583, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.3262, "accurate_pass": 43.8321, "duels_won": 4.7761, "total_long_balls": 10.8414, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 38.8887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9602, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8719, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2553, "possession_lost": 10.7606, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4965, "aerial_lost": 2.169, "total_contest": 0.1929, "won_contest": 0.1929, "ball_recovery": 2.8404, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.1881, "fouls_drawn": 1.1043, "blocks": 0.5302, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6921, "total_progression": 53.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.7232, "key_pass": 0.2669, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8306 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.132, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7291, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5542, "team_expected_assists": 0.8605, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5526, "xa_scale": 1.5526, "opponent_lambda": 1.851, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0102, "after": 0.0158 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2003, "tackles": 1.6509, "tackles_won": 0.9448, "clearances": 6.1813, "aerial_won": 2.2824, "total_shots": 0.5583, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.3262, "accurate_pass": 43.8321, "duels_won": 4.7761, "total_long_balls": 10.8414, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 38.8887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9602, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8719, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2553, "possession_lost": 10.7606, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4965, "aerial_lost": 2.169, "total_contest": 0.1929, "won_contest": 0.1929, "ball_recovery": 2.8404, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.1881, "fouls_drawn": 1.1043, "blocks": 0.5302, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6921, "total_progression": 53.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.7232, "key_pass": 0.2669, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8306, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4136, "fifa_rank": 3521.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2003, "tackles": 1.6509, "tackles_won": 0.9448, "clearances": 6.1813, "aerial_won": 2.2824, "total_shots": 0.5583, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.3262, "accurate_pass": 43.8321, "duels_won": 4.7761, "total_long_balls": 10.8414, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 38.8887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9602, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8719, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2553, "possession_lost": 10.7606, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4965, "aerial_lost": 2.169, "total_contest": 0.1929, "won_contest": 0.1929, "ball_recovery": 2.8404, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.1881, "fouls_drawn": 1.1043, "blocks": 0.5302, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6921, "total_progression": 53.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.7232, "key_pass": 0.2669, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8306, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.1493, "weight_share": 0.0009, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.336, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.336, "runner_up": "Diego Villares", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1058 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2003, "tackles": 1.6509, "tackles_won": 0.9448, "clearances": 6.1813, "aerial_won": 2.2824, "total_shots": 0.5583, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.3262, "accurate_pass": 43.8321, "duels_won": 4.7761, "total_long_balls": 10.8414, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0422, "total_own_half_passes": 38.8887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9602, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8719, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.2553, "possession_lost": 10.7606, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4965, "aerial_lost": 2.169, "total_contest": 0.1929, "won_contest": 0.1929, "ball_recovery": 2.8404, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.1881, "fouls_drawn": 1.1043, "blocks": 0.5302, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6921, "total_progression": 53.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.7232, "key_pass": 0.2669, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0157, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8306, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0131, "squad_weight_total": 0.8384, "weight_share": 0.0157, "creation_factor": 0.8306, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mario Soriano", "weight": 0.1769, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1769, "runner_up": "Giacomo Quagliata", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1072, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bil Nsongo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Mario Soriano": { "player_id": 984622, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 163, "market_value": 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"predicted": 1.2906227111816406, "model_output": 1.2906, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3367 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1453 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0792 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.04 } ], "others": -0.0945, "total": 1.2906, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.336713 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.14526 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.079225 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042628 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.040031 } ], "others_margin": -0.094463 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.192887306213379, "model_output": 7.1929, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1089 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0735 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0252 } ], "others": 0.0671, "total": 7.1929, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.108853 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.073505 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032045 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.028755 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.02518 } ], "others_margin": 0.067146 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9965, quality 0.470)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.1347, "assists": 0.1063, "assist_rate": 0.1063, "expected_goals": 0.072, "goals": 0.0844, "goal_rate": 0.0844, "shots_on_target": 0.2563, "total_shots": 1.2861, "rating": 7.1929, "minutes": 79.63, "total_pass": 60.4637, "accurate_pass": 55.8096, "duels_won": 2.9006, "total_long_balls": 4.942, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9565, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8355, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9251, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8845, "crosses_total": 2.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.6037, "touches": 73.6409, "possession_lost": 9.1889, "dispossessed": 1.473, "duels_lost": 3.0135, "aerial_won": 0.2269, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.5871, "tackles_won": 0.3481, "tackles": 0.8273, "clearances": 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"expected_assists": 0.1347, "assists": 0.1063, "assist_rate": 0.1063, "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goals": 0.0699, "goal_rate": 0.0699, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 1.065, "rating": 7.1929, "minutes": 79.63, "total_pass": 60.4637, "accurate_pass": 55.8096, "duels_won": 2.9006, "total_long_balls": 4.942, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9565, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8355, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9251, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8845, "crosses_total": 2.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.6037, "touches": 73.6409, "possession_lost": 9.1889, "dispossessed": 1.473, "duels_lost": 3.0135, "aerial_won": 0.6, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.5871, "tackles_won": 0.3481, "tackles": 0.8273, "clearances": 0.4825, "total_contest": 0.7327, "won_contest": 0.7327, "challenges_lost": 0.7965, "fouls": 0.744, "fouls_drawn": 1.2543, "blocks": 0.1195, "big_chances_created": 0.4962, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0821, "ball_carries": 24.8911, 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"pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Quilindschy Hartman", "opponent_faced": "Quilindschy Hartman", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3023, "expected_assists": 0.209, "assist_rate": 0.1063, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0925, "goal_rate": 0.0699, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "total_shots": 1.065, "rating": 7.1929, "minutes": 79.63, "total_pass": 60.4637, "accurate_pass": 55.8096, "duels_won": 2.9006, "total_long_balls": 4.942, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9565, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8355, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9251, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8845, "crosses_total": 2.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.6037, "touches": 73.6409, "possession_lost": 9.1889, "dispossessed": 1.473, "duels_lost": 3.0135, "aerial_won": 0.6, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.5871, "tackles_won": 0.3481, "tackles": 0.8273, "clearances": 0.4825, "total_contest": 0.7327, "won_contest": 0.7327, "challenges_lost": 0.7965, "fouls": 0.744, "fouls_drawn": 1.2543, "blocks": 0.1195, "big_chances_created": 0.4962, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1275, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 48.8612, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "shots_off_target": 0.8528, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8281, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.363, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Quilindschy Hartman", "opponent_faced": "Quilindschy Hartman", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.094, "creation_factor": 0.8462 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.132, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7291, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5542, "team_expected_assists": 0.8605, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5526, "xa_scale": 1.5526, "opponent_lambda": 1.851, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0596, "after": 0.0925 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1347, "after": 0.209 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.3072 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1237 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.057 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.05 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0202 } ], "others": -0.1533, "total": 0.5209, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.307188 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123675 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056964 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.050034 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020205 } ], "others_margin": -0.153284 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.891288757324219, "model_output": 6.8913, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0842 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0157 } ], "others": -0.0596, "total": 6.8913, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.084172 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030792 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023251 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.017482 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015689 } ], "others_margin": -0.059623 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0024, quality 0.526)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4717, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assists": 0.0463, "assist_rate": 0.0463, "expected_goals": 0.0421, "goals": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "shots_on_target": 0.1438, "total_shots": 0.5222, "rating": 6.8913, "minutes": 88.08, "total_pass": 52.4642, "accurate_pass": 47.6078, "duels_won": 5.0857, "total_long_balls": 2.8185, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7224, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2509, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1434, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3569, "crosses_total": 0.3198, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.1054, "possession_lost": 7.6091, "dispossessed": 0.5899, "duels_lost": 5.2186, "aerial_won": 1.2176, "aerial_lost": 1.2399, "interceptions": 1.6222, "tackles_won": 1.1958, "tackles": 2.5686, "clearances": 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"expected_assists": 0.0344, "assists": 0.0463, "assist_rate": 0.0463, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "goals": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "shots_on_target": 0.1484, "total_shots": 0.5391, "rating": 6.8913, "minutes": 88.08, "total_pass": 52.4642, "accurate_pass": 47.6078, "duels_won": 5.0857, "total_long_balls": 2.8185, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7224, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2509, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1434, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3569, "crosses_total": 0.3198, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.1054, "possession_lost": 7.6091, "dispossessed": 0.5899, "duels_lost": 5.2186, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 1.2399, "interceptions": 1.6222, "tackles_won": 1.1958, "tackles": 2.5686, "clearances": 2.3374, "total_contest": 0.9047, "won_contest": 0.3036, "challenges_lost": 0.8774, "fouls": 1.9104, "fouls_drawn": 0.9958, "blocks": 0.8222, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2284, "xgot": 0.1112, "ball_carries": 22.594, 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"xg_override": 0.0435 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.2176, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5222, "after": 0.5391 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3783, "after": 0.3905 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2213, "after": 0.2284 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4717, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0463, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1484, "total_shots": 0.5391, "rating": 6.8913, "minutes": 88.08, "total_pass": 52.4642, "accurate_pass": 47.6078, "duels_won": 5.0857, "total_long_balls": 2.8185, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7224, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2509, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1434, 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4717, "expected_assists": 0.0534, "assist_rate": 0.0463, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1484, "total_shots": 0.5391, "rating": 6.8913, "minutes": 88.08, "total_pass": 52.4642, "accurate_pass": 47.6078, "duels_won": 5.0857, "total_long_balls": 2.8185, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7224, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2509, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1434, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3569, "crosses_total": 0.3198, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.1054, "possession_lost": 7.6091, "dispossessed": 0.5899, "duels_lost": 5.2186, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 1.2399, "interceptions": 1.6222, "tackles_won": 1.1958, "tackles": 2.5686, "clearances": 2.3374, "total_contest": 0.9047, "won_contest": 0.3036, "challenges_lost": 0.8774, "fouls": 1.9104, "fouls_drawn": 0.9958, "blocks": 0.8222, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2284, "xgot": 0.1727, "ball_carries": 22.594, "total_progression": 98.7292, "progressive_carries": 1.1495, "shots_off_target": 0.3905, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0323, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Álex Calatrava", "opponent_faced": "Álex Calatrava", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0791, "creation_factor": 1.141 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.132, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7291, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5542, "team_expected_assists": 0.8605, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5526, "xa_scale": 1.5526, "opponent_lambda": 1.851, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0435, "after": 0.0675 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0344, "after": 0.0534 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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{ "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1388 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0791 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0607 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0381 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0253 } ], "others": -0.1317, "total": 0.7888, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13884 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.079112 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.060712 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.038145 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.025325 } ], "others_margin": -0.131688 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.892406463623047, "model_output": 6.8924, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": 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6, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9908, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6029, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "assists": 0.0557, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "shots_on_target": 0.2212, "total_shots": 0.7815, "rating": 6.8924, "minutes": 66.85, "total_pass": 28.2787, "accurate_pass": 24.2914, "duels_won": 2.1039, "total_long_balls": 1.4982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4545, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6134, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.8369, "crosses_total": 0.6634, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.481, "possession_lost": 5.3054, "dispossessed": 0.3274, "duels_lost": 1.3182, "aerial_won": 0.2783, "aerial_lost": 0.3851, "interceptions": 1.9325, "tackles_won": 0.3851, "tackles": 0.9417, "clearances": 0.2783, 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"before": 0.2783, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7815, "after": 0.8144 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.5753, "after": 0.5995 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5603, "after": 0.5839 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2212, "after": 0.2305 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6029, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0684, "goal_rate": 0.068, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2305, "total_shots": 0.8144, "rating": 6.8924, "minutes": 66.85, "total_pass": 28.2787, "accurate_pass": 24.2914, "duels_won": 2.1039, "total_long_balls": 1.4982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4545, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6134, 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6029, "expected_assists": 0.0685, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1062, "goal_rate": 0.068, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2305, "total_shots": 0.8144, "rating": 6.8924, "minutes": 66.85, "total_pass": 28.2787, "accurate_pass": 24.2914, "duels_won": 2.1039, "total_long_balls": 1.4982, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4545, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6134, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.8369, "crosses_total": 0.6634, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.481, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.334723 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116602 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.06347 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.043195 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.0367 } ], "others_margin": -0.156677 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.874495506286621, "model_output": 6.8745, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0364 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "rating", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0032, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5744, "expected_assists": 0.0405, "assists": 0.0548, "assist_rate": 0.0548, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goals": 0.0702, "goal_rate": 0.0702, "shots_on_target": 0.1329, "total_shots": 0.4683, "rating": 6.8745, "minutes": 70.27, "total_pass": 57.2731, "accurate_pass": 51.017, "duels_won": 2.9753, "total_long_balls": 2.7975, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5272, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4551, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2739, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7431, "crosses_total": 0.0778, "crosses_accurate": 0.0778, "touches": 66.1443, "possession_lost": 7.9685, "dispossessed": 0.319, "duels_lost": 3.0502, "aerial_won": 0.4609, "aerial_lost": 0.3168, "interceptions": 0.5771, "tackles_won": 0.4837, "tackles": 0.8567, "clearances": 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"items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1884 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0639 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0472 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0327 } ], "others": -0.1233, "total": 0.6402, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.240843 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075338 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.059622 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.051001 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.043842 } ], "others_margin": -0.176183 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.731720924377441, "model_output": 6.7317, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9961, quality 0.466)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.219, "goals": 0.2227, "goal_rate": 0.2227, "shots_on_target": 0.5942, "total_shots": 1.8388, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0.6377, "rating": 6.7317, "minutes": 71.07, "total_pass": 14.1239, "accurate_pass": 11.0278, "duels_won": 5.1672, "total_long_balls": 0.3495, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2872, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3383, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9156, "crosses_total": 0.2558, "crosses_accurate": 0.0624, "touches": 31.1015, "possession_lost": 9.9783, "dispossessed": 2.5995, "duels_lost": 7.5343, "aerial_lost": 2.319, "total_contest": 2.9528, "won_contest": 1.6165, "ball_recovery": 2.4802, "challenges_lost": 0.4169, "fouls": 0.8625, "fouls_drawn": 0.55, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.585, 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"history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2084 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0828 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0355, "total": 0.1974, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.2084 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.082816 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017347 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.014372 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.011186 } ], "others_margin": -0.03551 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.763782024383545, "model_output": 6.7638, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": 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provenance: no published number changes. 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0666 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0455 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0184 } ], "others": 0.0061, "total": 6.7243, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066551 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.045483 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.026166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019282 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.018363 } ], "others_margin": 0.005977 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9853, quality 0.446)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2987, "expected_assists": 0.0438, "assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.0523, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0307, "shots_on_target": 0.085, "total_shots": 0.2066, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 29.559, "accurate_pass": 22.6619, "duels_won": 2.9559, "total_long_balls": 0.9853, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8236, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8383, "crosses_total": 4.9265, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.1033, "possession_lost": 20.6913, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9412, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9853, "tackles_won": 0.9853, "tackles": 0.9853, "clearances": 1.9706, "total_contest": 1.9706, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.9706, "fouls_drawn": 1.9706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9118, "total_progression": 7.0219, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1215 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3700000, "quality_factor": 0.4461, "boost_factor": 0.9853, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "assists": 0.0606, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.01, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1582, "appearance_probability": 0.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "assists": 0.0606, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1774, "creation_factor": 1.0983 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.132, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7291, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5542, "team_expected_assists": 0.8605, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5526, "xa_scale": 1.5526, "opponent_lambda": 1.851, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.5 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0227, "after": 0.0176 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0507, "after": 0.0394 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1774, "creation_factor": 1.0983, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1704, "fifa_rank": 1185.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1774, "creation_factor": 1.0983, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "scorer_weight": 0.0207, "squad_weight_total": 1.1493, "weight_share": 0.018, "finishing_factor": 1.1774, "appearance_weight": 0.5, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.336, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.336, "runner_up": "Diego Villares", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1058 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0379, "finishing_factor": 1.1774, "creation_factor": 1.0983, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "provider_weight": 0.0433, "squad_weight_total": 0.8384, "weight_share": 0.0516, "creation_factor": 1.0983, "appearance_weight": 0.5, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mario Soriano", "weight": 0.1769, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1769, "runner_up": "Giacomo Quagliata", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1072, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bil Nsongo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Noé Carrillo": { "player_id": 2414019, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 37, "height": 176, "market_value": 1000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 63.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 8642, "combined_rank_score": 7162.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 14098.0, "fifa_overall": 63.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Noé Carrillo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lukas Jungwirth", "ranking": 8637 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Wimmer", "ranking": 8638 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Adeniran", "ranking": 8639 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Morgalla", "ranking": 8640 }, { "player_name": "Atanas Chernev", 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"contribution": -0.236 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0584 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0507 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0338 } ], "others": 0.1503, "total": 0.7827, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.417303 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.120563 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.094036 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.058142 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.054982 } ], "others_margin": 0.213213 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.785271167755127, "model_output": 6.7853, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0773 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0137 } ], "others": 0.0065, "total": 6.7853, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077305 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.023936 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.02392 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021303 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013748 } ], "others_margin": 0.006336 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0166, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goals": 0.0685, "goal_rate": 0.0685, "shots_on_target": 0.2345, "total_shots": 0.7735, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "key_pass": 0.7957, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 20.44, "total_pass": 12.3629, "accurate_pass": 9.6891, "duels_won": 1.348, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6428, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.233, "touches": 18.5128, "possession_lost": 5.3067, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.2507, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7933, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.4134, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.198, "fouls_drawn": 0.5392, "assists": 0.233, "assist_rate": 0.233, "interceptions": 0.233, "tackles_won": 0.8088, "tackles": 0.8088, "clearances": 0.1683, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.233, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 5.9075, "total_progression": 18.2808, "progressive_carries": 0.5192, "shots_off_target": 0.539 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0166, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.4 to 26.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0749, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0902, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.2535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "assists": 0.2983, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "interceptions": 0.2983, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.0356, "clearances": 0.2155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2983, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 7.564, "total_progression": 23.407, "progressive_carries": 0.6648, "shots_off_target": 0.6901, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.17, "projection_minutes": 20.44, "minutes_scale": 1.2804, "appearance_probability": 0.599 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0749, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0902, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.2535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "assists": 0.2983, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "interceptions": 0.2983, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.0356, "clearances": 0.2155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2983, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 7.564, "total_progression": 23.407, "progressive_carries": 0.6648, "shots_off_target": 0.6901, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0749, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0902, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.2535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2983, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.0356, "clearances": 0.2155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2983, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 7.564, "total_progression": 23.407, "progressive_carries": 0.6648, "shots_off_target": 0.6901, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0902, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.2535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2983, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.0356, "clearances": 0.2155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2983, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 7.564, "total_progression": 23.407, "progressive_carries": 0.6648, "shots_off_target": 0.6901, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0162, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.132, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7291, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5542, "team_expected_assists": 0.8605, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5526, "xa_scale": 1.5526, "opponent_lambda": 1.851, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.599 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0855, "after": 0.0795 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0749, "after": 0.0697 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0902, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.2535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2983, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.0356, "clearances": 0.2155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2983, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 7.564, "total_progression": 23.407, "progressive_carries": 0.6648, "shots_off_target": 0.6901, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0162, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2211, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0902, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.2535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2983, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.0356, "clearances": 0.2155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2983, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 7.564, "total_progression": 23.407, "progressive_carries": 0.6648, "shots_off_target": 0.6901, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0745, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0162, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0745, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "scorer_weight": 0.0808, "squad_weight_total": 1.1493, "weight_share": 0.0703, "finishing_factor": 1.0162, "appearance_weight": 0.599, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.336, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.336, "runner_up": "Diego Villares", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1058 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0902, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.2535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2983, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.0356, "clearances": 0.2155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2983, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 7.564, "total_progression": 23.407, "progressive_carries": 0.6648, "shots_off_target": 0.6901, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0745, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0658, "finishing_factor": 1.0162, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0658, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "provider_weight": 0.0871, "squad_weight_total": 0.8384, "weight_share": 0.1039, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.599, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mario Soriano", "weight": 0.1769, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1769, "runner_up": "Giacomo Quagliata", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1072, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bil Nsongo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jonathan Asp Jensen": { "player_id": 1146545, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 182, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 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0.0404, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421082.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0655, "expected_assists": 0.0897, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421067.0, "match_date": 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2057, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.132, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7291, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5542, "team_expected_assists": 0.8605, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5526, "xa_scale": 1.5526, "opponent_lambda": 1.851, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0795, "after": 0.0697 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0478, "after": 0.0419 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2057, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5662, "fifa_rank": 6954.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2057, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0656, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "scorer_weight": 0.0868, "squad_weight_total": 1.1493, "weight_share": 0.0755, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.336, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.336, "runner_up": "Diego Villares", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1058 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2057, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0656, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0404, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0404, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0335, "squad_weight_total": 0.8384, "weight_share": 0.04, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mario Soriano", "weight": 0.1769, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1769, "runner_up": "Giacomo Quagliata", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1072, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bil Nsongo" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Yeremay Hernández": { "player_id": 1096950, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 169, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, 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0.0658, "finishing_factor": 1.0162, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421095.0, "match_date": "2026-11-02 20:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Deportivo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Deportivo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16421082.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0166, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goals": 0.0685, "goal_rate": 0.0685, "shots_on_target": 0.2345, "total_shots": 0.7735, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "key_pass": 0.7957, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 20.44, "total_pass": 12.3629, "accurate_pass": 9.6891, "duels_won": 1.348, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6428, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.233, "touches": 18.5128, "possession_lost": 5.3067, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.2507, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.7933, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.4134, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.198, "fouls_drawn": 0.5392, "assists": 0.233, "assist_rate": 0.233, "interceptions": 0.233, "tackles_won": 0.8088, "tackles": 0.8088, "clearances": 0.1683, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.233, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 5.9075, "total_progression": 18.2808, "progressive_carries": 0.5192, "shots_off_target": 0.539 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0166, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.4 to 26.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0749, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0902, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.2535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "assists": 0.2983, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "interceptions": 0.2983, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.0356, "clearances": 0.2155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2983, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 7.564, "total_progression": 23.407, "progressive_carries": 0.6648, "shots_off_target": 0.6901, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.17, "projection_minutes": 20.44, "minutes_scale": 1.2804, "appearance_probability": 0.599 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0749, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0902, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.2535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "assists": 0.2983, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "interceptions": 0.2983, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.0356, "clearances": 0.2155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2983, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 7.564, "total_progression": 23.407, "progressive_carries": 0.6648, "shots_off_target": 0.6901, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0749, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0902, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.2535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2983, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.0356, "clearances": 0.2155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2983, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 7.564, "total_progression": 23.407, "progressive_carries": 0.6648, "shots_off_target": 0.6901, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0902, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.2535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2983, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.0356, "clearances": 0.2155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2983, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 7.564, "total_progression": 23.407, "progressive_carries": 0.6648, "shots_off_target": 0.6901, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0162, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.132, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7291, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5542, "team_expected_assists": 0.8605, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5526, "xa_scale": 1.5526, "opponent_lambda": 1.851, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.599 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0855, "after": 0.0795 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0749, "after": 0.0697 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0902, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.2535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2983, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.0356, "clearances": 0.2155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2983, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4172, "ball_carries": 7.564, "total_progression": 23.407, "progressive_carries": 0.6648, "shots_off_target": 0.6901, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0162, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2211, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0902, "challenges_lost": 0.609, "fouls": 0.2535, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "assist_rate": 0.2983, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2983, "tackles_won": 1.0356, "tackles": 1.0356, "clearances": 0.2155, "blocks": 0.0, 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"eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.336, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.336, "runner_up": "Diego Villares", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1058 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3003, "total_shots": 0.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0697, "key_pass": 1.0188, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 15.8296, "accurate_pass": 12.4061, "duels_won": 1.726, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5055, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.2983, "touches": 23.704, "possession_lost": 6.7948, "dispossessed": 0.6502, "duels_lost": 2.8818, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0158, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goals": 0.0749, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "shots_on_target": 0.2941, "total_shots": 0.7336, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "key_pass": 0.3699, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 17.12, "total_pass": 5.912, "accurate_pass": 5.0681, "duels_won": 0.9899, "total_long_balls": 0.3125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7073, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.7783, "possession_lost": 1.0696, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6733, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.5383, "won_contest": 0.3125, "ball_recovery": 0.4915, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.1919, "fouls_drawn": 0.2258, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4516, "clearances": 0.2656, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1579, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7031, "total_progression": 5.8731, "progressive_carries": 0.4177, "shots_off_target": 0.4395 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9959, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.1 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.43, "projection_minutes": 17.12, "minutes_scale": 1.4853, "appearance_probability": 0.565 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2345, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2057, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.132, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7291, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5542, "team_expected_assists": 0.8605, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5526, "xa_scale": 1.5526, "opponent_lambda": 1.851, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.565 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0795, "after": 0.0697 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0478, "after": 0.0419 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2057, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5662, "fifa_rank": 6954.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, "ball_recovery": 0.73, "challenges_lost": 0.7172, "fouls": 0.285, "fouls_drawn": 0.3354, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6708, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2057, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.015, "total_progression": 8.7236, "progressive_carries": 0.6204, "shots_off_target": 0.6528, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.565, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.43, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0656, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "scorer_weight": 0.0868, "squad_weight_total": 1.1493, "weight_share": 0.0755, "finishing_factor": 1.2456, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.336, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.336, "runner_up": "Diego Villares", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1058 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4368, "total_shots": 1.0896, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "key_pass": 0.5494, "rating": 6.5992, "minutes": 25.43, "total_pass": 8.7814, "accurate_pass": 7.5279, "duels_won": 1.4703, "total_long_balls": 0.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5066, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5241, "possession_lost": 1.5887, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4854, "aerial_lost": 0.5383, "total_contest": 0.7996, "won_contest": 0.4642, 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"assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0404, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0335, "squad_weight_total": 0.8384, "weight_share": 0.04, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.565, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mario Soriano", "weight": 0.1769, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1769, "runner_up": "Giacomo Quagliata", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1072, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bil Nsongo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Angeliño": { "player_id": 848355, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 171, "market_value": 3700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0379, "finishing_factor": 1.1774, "creation_factor": 1.0983, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416343.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 5.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1704, "combined_rank_score": 690.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", 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"model_output": 0.2096, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2932 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2173 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.1057 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0814 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0508 } ], "others": -0.1897, "total": 0.2096, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.293226 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.217277 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.105696 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.081415 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050794 } ], "others_margin": -0.189714 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.724264621734619, "model_output": 6.7243, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0666 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0455 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0184 } ], "others": 0.0061, "total": 6.7243, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066551 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.045483 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.026166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019282 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.018363 } ], "others_margin": 0.005977 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9853, quality 0.446)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2987, "expected_assists": 0.0438, "assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.0523, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0307, "shots_on_target": 0.085, "total_shots": 0.2066, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 29.559, "accurate_pass": 22.6619, "duels_won": 2.9559, "total_long_balls": 0.9853, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8236, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8383, "crosses_total": 4.9265, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.1033, "possession_lost": 20.6913, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9412, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9853, "tackles_won": 0.9853, "tackles": 0.9853, "clearances": 1.9706, "total_contest": 1.9706, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.9706, "fouls_drawn": 1.9706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9118, "total_progression": 7.0219, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1215 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3700000, "quality_factor": 0.4461, "boost_factor": 0.9853, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "assists": 0.0606, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.01, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1582, "appearance_probability": 0.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "assists": 0.0606, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7291, xG scale 1.5526, xA scale 1.5526, team xA 0.86 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1774, "creation_factor": 1.0983 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.132, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7291, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5542, "team_expected_assists": 0.8605, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5526, "xa_scale": 1.5526, "opponent_lambda": 1.851, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.5 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0227, "after": 0.0176 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0507, "after": 0.0394 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1774, "creation_factor": 1.0983, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1704, "fifa_rank": 1185.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1774, "creation_factor": 1.0983, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "scorer_weight": 0.0207, "squad_weight_total": 1.1493, "weight_share": 0.018, "finishing_factor": 1.1774, "appearance_weight": 0.5, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bil Nsongo", "weight": 0.336, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.336, "runner_up": "Diego Villares", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1058 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.346, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0985, "total_shots": 0.2393, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 22.01, "total_pass": 34.2365, "accurate_pass": 26.248, "duels_won": 3.4237, "total_long_balls": 1.1412, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6946, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5534, "crosses_total": 5.7061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.6143, "possession_lost": 23.9656, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.5649, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 1.1412, "tackles": 1.1412, "clearances": 2.2824, "total_contest": 2.2824, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.2824, "fouls_drawn": 2.2824, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8473, "total_progression": 8.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1407, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.01, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.469, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0173, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0379, "finishing_factor": 1.1774, "creation_factor": 1.0983, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "provider_weight": 0.0433, "squad_weight_total": 0.8384, "weight_share": 0.0516, "creation_factor": 1.0983, "appearance_weight": 0.5, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mario Soriano", "weight": 0.1769, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1769, "runner_up": "Giacomo Quagliata", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1072, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bil Nsongo" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.13, "expected_assists": 0.86, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 491, "interceptions": 13, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Javier Hernández", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 6400000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.479, "defenders": [ "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "xg_contribution": 0.1071, "xg_multiplier": 0.9926, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Hernández (LW) is evenly matched against Giacomo Quagliata in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.107 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Edu Expósito", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 4500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.456, "defenders": [ "Ximo Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.484, "xg_contribution": 0.074, "xg_multiplier": 1.0064, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ximo Navarro", "role": "LB", "market_value": 95000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.516 } ], "duel_analysis": "Edu Expósito (RW) is evenly matched against Ximo Navarro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Urko González", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 11600000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.541, "defenders": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Diego Villares" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.305, "xg_contribution": 0.0483, "xg_multiplier": 1.0957, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 10300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.695 }, { "player": "Diego Villares", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.695 } ], "duel_analysis": "Urko González (CAM) is slightly favored against Lorenzo Amatucci and Diego Villares in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Roberto Fernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.455, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "xg_contribution": 0.4184, "xg_multiplier": 1.1195, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José María Giménez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 }, { "player": "Lucas Noubi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roberto Fernández (ST) is slightly favored against José María Giménez and Lucas Noubi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.418 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Álex Calatrava", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4900000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.461, "defenders": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.526, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "xg_contribution": 0.1074, "xg_multiplier": 0.9677, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 10300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.602 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álex Calatrava (CDM) is evenly matched against Lorenzo Amatucci in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.107 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pol Lozano", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472, "defenders": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.526, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "xg_contribution": 0.0472, "xg_multiplier": 0.9822, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 10300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.592 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pol Lozano (CDM) is evenly matched against Lorenzo Amatucci in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mario Soriano", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 5600000, "attacker_height": 163, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.47, "defenders": [ "Quilindschy Hartman" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.541, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.363, "xg_contribution": 0.0596, "xg_multiplier": 0.8281, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.6, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Quilindschy Hartman", "role": "RB", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Soriano (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Quilindschy Hartman in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Marc Casadó", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Roger Hinojo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "xg_contribution": 0.0566, "xg_multiplier": 1.0314, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Roger Hinojo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marc Casadó (RW) is evenly matched against Roger Hinojo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Riki Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Álex Calatrava", "Pol Lozano" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.22, "xg_contribution": 0.0591, "xg_multiplier": 0.9702, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Álex Calatrava", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78 }, { "player": "Pol Lozano", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78 } ], "duel_analysis": "Riki Rodríguez (CAM) is evenly matched against Álex Calatrava and Pol Lozano in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bil Nsongo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Clemens Riedel" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.443, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.183, "xg_contribution": 0.2134, "xg_multiplier": 0.9745, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817 }, { "player": "Clemens Riedel", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bil Nsongo (ST) is evenly matched against Leandro Cabrera and Clemens Riedel in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.213 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Álex Calatrava" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.461, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "xg_contribution": 0.0435, "xg_multiplier": 1.0323, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Álex Calatrava", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.558 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lorenzo Amatucci (CDM) is evenly matched against Álex Calatrava in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Diego Villares", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Álex Calatrava" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.461, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.449, "xg_contribution": 0.0684, "xg_multiplier": 1.0421, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Álex Calatrava", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.551 } ], "duel_analysis": "Diego Villares (CDM) is evenly matched against Álex Calatrava in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.532, "away_midfield_power": 0.539, "home_creative_power": 0.484, "away_creative_power": 0.443, "home_defensive_power": 0.464, "away_defensive_power": 0.459, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.497, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Javier Hernández", "Edu Expósito", "Urko González", "Álex Calatrava", "Pol Lozano" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Mario Soriano", "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Riki Rodríguez", "Diego Villares", "Marc Casadó" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Urko González vs Marc Casadó", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.001, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.999 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.851, "away_lambda": 1.132, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CDM vs CDM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CDM vs CDM" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Javier Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Giacomo Quagliata", "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Edu Expósito": { "opponents": [ "Ximo Navarro", "Marc Casadó" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Urko González": { "opponents": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Diego Villares", "Riki Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Roberto Fernández": { "opponents": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Álex Calatrava": { "opponents": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Riki Rodríguez", "Diego Villares" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pol Lozano": { "opponents": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Riki Rodríguez", "Diego Villares" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Quilindschy Hartman": { "opponents": [ "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Roger Hinojo": { "opponents": [ "Marc Casadó" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leandro Cabrera": { "opponents": [ "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Clemens Riedel": { "opponents": [ "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marko Dmitrović": { "opponents": [ "Bil Nsongo", "Marc Casadó" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Giacomo Quagliata": { "opponents": [ "Javier Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ximo Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lorenzo Amatucci": { "opponents": [ "Urko González", "Álex Calatrava", "Pol Lozano" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Diego Villares": { "opponents": [ "Urko González", "Álex Calatrava", "Pol Lozano" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "José María Giménez": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lucas Noubi": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mario Soriano": { "opponents": [ "Quilindschy Hartman", "Javier Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marc Casadó": { "opponents": [ "Roger Hinojo", "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Riki Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Álex Calatrava", "Pol Lozano", "Urko González" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bil Nsongo": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Clemens Riedel" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Leo Román": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Javier Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Urko González vs Marc Casadó will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.80, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9821, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.083, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0071, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0014, "home_midfield_factor": 1.001, "away_midfield_factor": 0.999, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4916, "away_avg_quality": 0.4709, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0207, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.3135, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.2541, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.2887, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0569, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8024, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9393 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.001, "result": 0.9402 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9402 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.2616 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9487, "result": 1.1969 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9821, "result": 1.1754 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0071, "result": 1.1838 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.083, "result": 1.2668 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2668, "result": 1.2668, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0569, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.2668, "result": 1.2668 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2668 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1355, "result": 1.4025 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.4025 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4025, "result": 1.402, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0143, "pre": 1.402, "result": 1.422, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.422 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.422 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.422, "result": 1.422, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.32, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.851 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.5006, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.713 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.999, "result": 0.7122 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7122 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7122 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9623, "result": 0.6854 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.6927 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0014, "result": 0.6937 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0, "result": 0.6937 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.6937, "result": 0.6937, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0569, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.6937, "result": 0.6937 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.6937 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1567, "result": 0.8507 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 0.8507 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8507, "result": 0.851, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9857, "pre": 0.851, "result": 0.8388, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.839 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.839 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.839, "result": 0.839, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.32, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.132 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1355, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1567, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.422, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.839, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.4025, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8507, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.32, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.851, "final_away_lambda": 1.132 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9487, "attack_index": 0.937, "defense_concede_index": 0.937, "form_multiplier": 0.996, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.41, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.41, "team_ppg": 1.13, "opponent_ppg": 1.2 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9623, "attack_index": 0.937, "defense_concede_index": 0.967, "form_multiplier": 1.004, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.41, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.46, "team_ppg": 1.2, "opponent_ppg": 1.13 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Espanyol vs Deportivo. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.402, Away 0.851). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.851, Away 1.132 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 0, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.851, "away_lambda": 1.132, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.402, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.851 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.32, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:33:11Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }