{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Hull", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261107", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1201, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1201, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0495, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Arsenal", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2092, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1201 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1192 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0995 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0977 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0785 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0616, "0-1": 0.0495, "0-2": 0.0205, "0-3": 0.0056, "0-4": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.1201, "1-1": 0.0995, "1-2": 0.0406, "1-3": 0.0111, "1-4": 0.0023, "2-0": 0.1192, "2-1": 0.0977, "2-2": 0.0401, "2-3": 0.011, "2-4": 0.0022, "3-0": 0.0785, "3-1": 0.0644, "3-2": 0.0264, "3-3": 0.0072, "3-4": 0.0015, "4-0": 0.0388, "4-1": 0.0318, "4-2": 0.013, "4-3": 0.0036, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0153, "5-1": 0.0126, "5-2": 0.0052, "5-3": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.005, "6-1": 0.0041, "6-2": 0.0017, "7-0": 0.0014, "7-1": 0.0012 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.6439, "draw": 0.2092, "away_win": 0.1469 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5296, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4704, "btts_yes": 0.4826, "btts_no": 0.5174, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4404, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1386 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.96, "MCR": 7.08, "ATR": 7.24, "GK": 7.07 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.69, "MCR": 6.75, "ATR": 6.84, "GK": 6.86 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Arsenal vs Hull. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Arsenal 8W-2D-0L vs Hull over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Bukayo Saka", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Declan Rice vs Tim Iroegbunam). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 0.45. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.976, "away_lambda": 0.82, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 8, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 1.05, "away_multiplier": 0.95 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-0", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1201, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.6439, "draw": 0.2092, "away_win": 0.1469 }, "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6439, "fair_spread": 1.156, "fair_total": 2.796, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.976, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 0.82, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5296, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4826, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4404, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1386, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.5099, "probability": 0.3994, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Oliver McBurnie (Hull)", "estimate": 0.2495, "probability": 0.2208, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Declan Rice (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.265, "probability": 0.2328, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Regan Slater (Hull)", "estimate": 0.0934, "probability": 0.0892, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.796, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 854, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.0, "possession_home_pct": 53.3, "possession_away_pct": 46.7, "notes": "Arsenal projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6439, "script": "Arsenal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.16 goals and fair total 2.80.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Hull must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Arsenal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Arsenal chance creation leans on Bukayo Saka against John Egan, Semi Ajayi in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Arsenal projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Arsenal: starters carry the main goal usage through Bukayo Saka; bench watchlist: Martín Zubimendi, Max Dowman, Viktor Gyökeres.", "Hull: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Christos Mouzakitis, Robinio Vaz, Mohamed Belloumi.", "Assist usage should flow through Declan Rice; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Arsenal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.40 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Hull is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Arsenal.", "Hull wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Arsenal": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "David Raya": { "player_id": 581310, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 186, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0529, "rating": 7.0674, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 19, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 42, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.8599, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 11.0723, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0616, "shots_faced": 7.8, "expected_saves": 1.91, "high_pressure_saves": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Tim Iroegbunam", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9079, "goals_prevented": -0.0529, "rating": 7.0674, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1874, "accurate_pass": 18.5476, "total_long_balls": 15.297, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0807, "touches": 42.3593, "clearances": 1.0109, "ball_recovery": 10.8022, "high_claims": 1.4035, "punches": 0.8599, "aerial_won": 0.6954, "sweeper_actions": 0.9212, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9212, "saves_inside_box": 1.3564, "possession_lost": 11.0723, "duels_won": 1.305, "duels_lost": 0.0112, "total_contest": 0.0016, "won_contest": 0.0016, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8179, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5439, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0616, "shots_faced": 10.1, "expected_saves": 2.47, "high_pressure_saves": 0.85, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Tim Iroegbunam", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.98 (squad xG sum 1.4874, xG scale 1.3285, xA scale 1.2370, team xA 1.58 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9079, "goals_prevented": -0.0529, "rating": 7.0674, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1874, "accurate_pass": 18.5476, "total_long_balls": 15.297, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0807, "touches": 42.3593, "clearances": 1.0109, "ball_recovery": 10.8022, "high_claims": 1.4035, "punches": 0.8599, "aerial_won": 0.6954, "sweeper_actions": 0.9212, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9212, "saves_inside_box": 1.3564, "possession_lost": 11.0723, "duels_won": 1.305, "duels_lost": 0.0112, "total_contest": 0.0016, "won_contest": 0.0016, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8179, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5439, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0616, "shots_faced": 7.8, "expected_saves": 1.91, "high_pressure_saves": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Tim Iroegbunam", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.976, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4874, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2779, "team_expected_assists": 1.5808, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3285, "xa_scale": 1.237, "opponent_lambda": 0.82, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 10.1, "after": 7.8 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.47, "after": 1.91 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.85, "after": 0.66 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9079, "goals_prevented": -0.0529, "rating": 7.0674, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1874, "accurate_pass": 18.5476, "total_long_balls": 15.297, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0807, "touches": 42.3593, "clearances": 1.0109, "ball_recovery": 10.8022, "high_claims": 1.4035, "punches": 0.8599, "aerial_won": 0.6954, "sweeper_actions": 0.9212, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9212, "saves_inside_box": 1.3564, "possession_lost": 11.0723, "duels_won": 1.305, "duels_lost": 0.0112, "total_contest": 0.0016, "won_contest": 0.0016, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8179, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5439, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0616, "shots_faced": 7.8, "expected_saves": 1.91, "high_pressure_saves": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Tim Iroegbunam", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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{ "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.012226 } ], "others_margin": -0.02226 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.017459392547607, "model_output": 7.0175, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0639 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0625 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.034 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0193 } ], "others": -0.0034, "total": 7.0175, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.063947 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.062514 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.042368 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.033968 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.019323 } ], "others_margin": -0.003443 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0161, quality 0.891)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9073, "tackles": 1.2441, "tackles_won": 0.6732, "clearances": 5.1772, "aerial_won": 2.28, "total_shots": 0.4089, "rating": 7.0175, "minutes": 89.7, "total_pass": 66.8209, "accurate_pass": 62.2386, "duels_won": 4.4113, "total_long_balls": 3.9808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1898, "total_own_half_passes": 40.9213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0764, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.1621, "crosses_total": 0.1994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0689, "touches": 78.4976, "possession_lost": 5.7827, "dispossessed": 0.4651, "duels_lost": 3.5255, "aerial_lost": 1.8707, "total_contest": 0.3351, "won_contest": 0.2755, "ball_recovery": 3.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.2636, "fouls": 0.8663, "fouls_drawn": 0.4154, "blocks": 0.3302, "goals": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.0493, "big_chances_created": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0425, "ball_carries": 17.3429, "total_progression": 60.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.4619, "key_pass": 0.4872, "shots_off_target": 0.3596 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 94000000, "quality_factor": 0.891, "boost_factor": 1.0161, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9073, "tackles": 1.2441, "tackles_won": 0.6732, "clearances": 5.1772, "aerial_won": 2.28, "total_shots": 0.4089, "rating": 7.0175, "minutes": 89.7, "total_pass": 66.8209, "accurate_pass": 62.2386, "duels_won": 4.4113, "total_long_balls": 3.9808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1898, "total_own_half_passes": 40.9213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0764, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.1621, "crosses_total": 0.1994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0689, "touches": 78.4976, "possession_lost": 5.7827, "dispossessed": 0.4651, "duels_lost": 3.5255, "aerial_lost": 1.8707, "total_contest": 0.3351, "won_contest": 0.2755, "ball_recovery": 3.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.2636, "fouls": 0.8663, "fouls_drawn": 0.4154, "blocks": 0.3302, "goals": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.0493, "big_chances_created": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0425, "ball_carries": 17.3429, "total_progression": 60.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.4619, "key_pass": 0.4872, "shots_off_target": 0.3596 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9073, "tackles": 1.2441, "tackles_won": 0.6732, "clearances": 5.1772, "aerial_won": 2.28, "total_shots": 0.4089, "rating": 7.0175, "minutes": 89.7, "total_pass": 66.8209, "accurate_pass": 62.2386, "duels_won": 4.4113, "total_long_balls": 3.9808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1898, "total_own_half_passes": 40.9213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0764, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.1621, "crosses_total": 0.1994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0689, "touches": 78.4976, "possession_lost": 5.7827, "dispossessed": 0.4651, "duels_lost": 3.5255, "aerial_lost": 1.8707, "total_contest": 0.3351, "won_contest": 0.2755, "ball_recovery": 3.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.2636, "fouls": 0.8663, "fouls_drawn": 0.4154, "blocks": 0.3302, "goals": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.0493, "big_chances_created": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0425, "ball_carries": 17.3429, "total_progression": 60.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.4619, "key_pass": 0.4872, "shots_off_target": 0.3596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9073, "tackles": 1.2441, "tackles_won": 0.6732, "clearances": 5.1772, "aerial_won": 2.28, "total_shots": 0.4089, "rating": 7.0175, "minutes": 89.7, "total_pass": 66.8209, "accurate_pass": 62.2386, "duels_won": 4.4113, "total_long_balls": 3.9808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1898, "total_own_half_passes": 40.9213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0764, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.1621, "crosses_total": 0.1994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0689, "touches": 78.4976, "possession_lost": 5.7827, "dispossessed": 0.4651, "duels_lost": 3.5255, "aerial_lost": 1.8707, "total_contest": 0.3351, "won_contest": 0.2755, "ball_recovery": 3.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.2636, "fouls": 0.8663, "fouls_drawn": 0.4154, "blocks": 0.3302, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.0493, "big_chances_created": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0425, "ball_carries": 17.3429, "total_progression": 60.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.4619, "key_pass": 0.4872, "shots_off_target": 0.3596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.98 (squad xG sum 1.4874, xG scale 1.3285, xA scale 1.2370, team xA 1.58 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9073, "tackles": 1.2441, "tackles_won": 0.6732, "clearances": 5.1772, "aerial_won": 2.28, "total_shots": 0.4089, "rating": 7.0175, "minutes": 89.7, "total_pass": 66.8209, "accurate_pass": 62.2386, "duels_won": 4.4113, "total_long_balls": 3.9808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1898, "total_own_half_passes": 40.9213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0764, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.1621, "crosses_total": 0.1994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0689, "touches": 78.4976, "possession_lost": 5.7827, "dispossessed": 0.4651, "duels_lost": 3.5255, "aerial_lost": 1.8707, "total_contest": 0.3351, "won_contest": 0.2755, "ball_recovery": 3.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.2636, "fouls": 0.8663, "fouls_drawn": 0.4154, "blocks": 0.3302, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "shots_on_target": 0.0493, "big_chances_created": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0565, "ball_carries": 17.3429, "total_progression": 60.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.4619, "key_pass": 0.4872, "shots_off_target": 0.3596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.976, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4874, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2779, "team_expected_assists": 1.5808, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3285, "xa_scale": 1.237, "opponent_lambda": 0.82, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0258, "after": 0.0343 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0747, "after": 0.0924 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9073, "tackles": 1.2441, "tackles_won": 0.6732, "clearances": 5.1772, "aerial_won": 2.28, "total_shots": 0.4089, "rating": 7.0175, "minutes": 89.7, "total_pass": 66.8209, "accurate_pass": 62.2386, "duels_won": 4.4113, "total_long_balls": 3.9808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1898, "total_own_half_passes": 40.9213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0764, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.1621, "crosses_total": 0.1994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0689, "touches": 78.4976, "possession_lost": 5.7827, "dispossessed": 0.4651, "duels_lost": 3.5255, "aerial_lost": 1.8707, "total_contest": 0.3351, "won_contest": 0.2755, "ball_recovery": 3.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.2636, "fouls": 0.8663, "fouls_drawn": 0.4154, "blocks": 0.3302, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "shots_on_target": 0.0493, "big_chances_created": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0565, "ball_carries": 17.3429, "total_progression": 60.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.4619, "key_pass": 0.4872, "shots_off_target": 0.3596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 232, "fifa_rank": 28.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9073, "tackles": 1.2441, "tackles_won": 0.6732, "clearances": 5.1772, "aerial_won": 2.28, "total_shots": 0.4089, "rating": 7.0175, "minutes": 89.7, "total_pass": 66.8209, "accurate_pass": 62.2386, "duels_won": 4.4113, "total_long_balls": 3.9808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1898, "total_own_half_passes": 40.9213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0764, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.1621, "crosses_total": 0.1994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0689, "touches": 78.4976, "possession_lost": 5.7827, "dispossessed": 0.4651, "duels_lost": 3.5255, "aerial_lost": 1.8707, "total_contest": 0.3351, "won_contest": 0.2755, "ball_recovery": 3.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.2636, "fouls": 0.8663, "fouls_drawn": 0.4154, "blocks": 0.3302, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "shots_on_target": 0.0493, "big_chances_created": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0565, "ball_carries": 17.3429, "total_progression": 60.8929, "progressive_carries": 0.4619, "key_pass": 0.4872, "shots_off_target": 0.3596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0337, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0337, "goal_rate": 0.0493, "scorer_weight": 0.0429, "squad_weight_total": 2.0855, "weight_share": 0.0206, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bukayo Saka", "weight": 0.5448, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5448, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4349 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9073, "tackles": 1.2441, "tackles_won": 0.6732, "clearances": 5.1772, "aerial_won": 2.28, "total_shots": 0.4089, "rating": 7.0175, "minutes": 89.7, "total_pass": 66.8209, "accurate_pass": 62.2386, "duels_won": 4.4113, "total_long_balls": 3.9808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1898, "total_own_half_passes": 40.9213, 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1063 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0521 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0096, "total": 0.4437, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.106263 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052142 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.023104 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016169 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.012957 } ], "others_margin": -0.009694 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.878090858459473, "model_output": 6.8781, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0346 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.015 } ], "others": -0.0014, "total": 6.8781, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.034593 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.031334 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016981 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016822 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.015039 } ], "others_margin": -0.0015 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Elliot Stroud", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8084, "tackles": 1.68, "tackles_won": 1.0502, "clearances": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 1.0856, "total_shots": 0.4496, "rating": 6.8781, "minutes": 75.29, "total_pass": 40.8806, "accurate_pass": 33.2968, "duels_won": 3.7651, "total_long_balls": 4.011, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2049, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4899, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7433, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.3906, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.5534, "crosses_total": 1.7603, "crosses_accurate": 0.385, "touches": 59.0967, "possession_lost": 11.5707, "dispossessed": 0.2692, "duels_lost": 1.5985, "aerial_lost": 0.5238, "total_contest": 0.4546, "won_contest": 0.2253, "ball_recovery": 2.8121, "challenges_lost": 0.4136, "fouls": 0.2663, "fouls_drawn": 0.9115, "blocks": 0.2602, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.363, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0206, "expected_assists": 0.1179, "shots_on_target": 0.0195, "big_chances_created": 0.3699, "xgot": 0.0065, "ball_carries": 8.6135, "total_progression": 17.9046, "progressive_carries": 0.3225, "key_pass": 0.9812, "shots_off_target": 0.4301, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.676, "opponent_faced": "Elliot Stroud", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.98 (squad xG sum 1.4874, xG scale 1.3285, xA scale 1.2370, team xA 1.58 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8084, "tackles": 1.68, "tackles_won": 1.0502, "clearances": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 1.0856, "total_shots": 0.4496, "rating": 6.8781, "minutes": 75.29, "total_pass": 40.8806, "accurate_pass": 33.2968, "duels_won": 3.7651, "total_long_balls": 4.011, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2049, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4899, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7433, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.3906, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.5534, "crosses_total": 1.7603, "crosses_accurate": 0.385, "touches": 59.0967, "possession_lost": 11.5707, "dispossessed": 0.2692, "duels_lost": 1.5985, "aerial_lost": 0.5238, "total_contest": 0.4546, "won_contest": 0.2253, "ball_recovery": 2.8121, "challenges_lost": 0.4136, "fouls": 0.2663, "fouls_drawn": 0.9115, 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"bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3285, "xa_scale": 1.237, "opponent_lambda": 0.82, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0206, "after": 0.0274 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1179, "after": 0.1458 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.118555 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.060268 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.057504 } ], "others_margin": 0.173659 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.926930546760559, "model_output": 1.9269, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1746 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1335 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0945 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0591 } ], "others": 0.318, "total": 1.9269, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.351297 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.17459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.13348 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.094479 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.059119 } ], "others_margin": 0.317988 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.317770004272461, "model_output": 7.3178, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1141 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0726 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0331 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0279 } ], "others": 0.1845, "total": 7.3178, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.114143 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.072577 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033084 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.028152 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.027939 } ], "others_margin": 0.184472 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0155, quality 0.888)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3047, "expected_assists": 0.2063, "assists": 0.235, "assist_rate": 0.235, "expected_goals": 0.2084, "goals": 0.2759, "goal_rate": 0.2759, "shots_on_target": 0.7645, "total_shots": 1.9568, "rating": 7.3178, "minutes": 82.59, "total_pass": 61.1772, "accurate_pass": 54.5625, "duels_won": 2.0159, "total_long_balls": 3.4602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7338, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3308, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2678, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.8465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.2948, "crosses_total": 2.0131, "crosses_accurate": 0.312, "touches": 73.6837, "possession_lost": 12.4921, "dispossessed": 0.8089, "duels_lost": 3.3068, "aerial_won": 0.0502, "aerial_lost": 0.3248, "interceptions": 0.2701, "tackles_won": 0.3892, "tackles": 0.6151, "clearances": 0.3032, "total_contest": 1.5153, "won_contest": 0.5291, "challenges_lost": 0.7162, "fouls": 0.4706, "fouls_drawn": 0.8214, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2799, "big_chances_missed": 0.1196, "xgot": 0.0911, "ball_carries": 29.7048, "total_progression": 77.3481, "progressive_carries": 2.2558, "shots_off_target": 1.1923 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 88000000, "quality_factor": 0.8879, "boost_factor": 1.0155, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3047, "expected_assists": 0.2063, "assists": 0.2328, "assist_rate": 0.2328, "expected_goals": 0.2084, "goals": 0.2787, "goal_rate": 0.2787, "shots_on_target": 0.7627, "total_shots": 1.9598, "rating": 7.3178, "minutes": 82.59, "total_pass": 61.1772, "accurate_pass": 54.5625, "duels_won": 2.0159, "total_long_balls": 3.4602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7338, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3308, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2678, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.8465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.2948, "crosses_total": 2.0104, "crosses_accurate": 0.312, "touches": 73.6837, "possession_lost": 12.4921, "dispossessed": 0.8089, "duels_lost": 3.3068, "aerial_won": 0.0502, "aerial_lost": 0.3248, "interceptions": 0.2676, "tackles_won": 0.4017, "tackles": 0.6151, "clearances": 0.3032, "total_contest": 1.5153, "won_contest": 0.5291, "challenges_lost": 0.7162, "fouls": 0.4662, "fouls_drawn": 0.8191, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2799, "big_chances_missed": 0.1196, "xgot": 0.0911, "ball_carries": 29.7048, "total_progression": 77.3481, "progressive_carries": 2.2558, "shots_off_target": 1.1923 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9177, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.3892, "after": 0.4017 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3047, "expected_assists": 0.2063, "assists": 0.2328, "assist_rate": 0.2328, "expected_goals": 0.2084, "goals": 0.2787, "goal_rate": 0.2787, "shots_on_target": 0.7627, "total_shots": 1.9598, "rating": 7.3178, "minutes": 82.59, "total_pass": 61.1772, "accurate_pass": 54.5625, "duels_won": 2.0159, "total_long_balls": 3.4602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7338, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3308, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2678, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.8465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.2948, "crosses_total": 2.0104, "crosses_accurate": 0.312, "touches": 73.6837, "possession_lost": 12.4921, "dispossessed": 0.8089, "duels_lost": 3.3068, "aerial_won": 0.0502, "aerial_lost": 0.3248, "interceptions": 0.2676, "tackles_won": 0.4017, "tackles": 0.6151, "clearances": 0.3032, "total_contest": 1.5153, "won_contest": 0.5291, "challenges_lost": 0.7162, "fouls": 0.4662, "fouls_drawn": 0.8191, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2799, "big_chances_missed": 0.1196, "xgot": 0.0911, "ball_carries": 29.7048, "total_progression": 77.3481, "progressive_carries": 2.2558, "shots_off_target": 1.1923 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3047, "expected_assists": 0.2063, "assists": 0.2328, "assist_rate": 0.2328, "expected_goals": 0.2619, "goals": 0.3503, "goal_rate": 0.3503, "shots_on_target": 0.9586, "total_shots": 2.4631, "rating": 7.3178, "minutes": 82.59, "total_pass": 61.1772, "accurate_pass": 54.5625, "duels_won": 2.0159, "total_long_balls": 3.4602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7338, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3308, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2678, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.8465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.2948, "crosses_total": 2.0104, "crosses_accurate": 0.312, "touches": 73.6837, "possession_lost": 12.4921, "dispossessed": 0.8089, "duels_lost": 3.3068, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3248, "interceptions": 0.2676, "tackles_won": 0.4017, "tackles": 0.6151, "clearances": 0.3032, "total_contest": 1.5153, "won_contest": 0.5291, "challenges_lost": 0.7162, "fouls": 0.4662, "fouls_drawn": 0.8191, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2799, "big_chances_missed": 0.1503, "xgot": 0.1145, "ball_carries": 29.7048, "total_progression": 77.3481, "progressive_carries": 2.2558, "shots_off_target": 1.4985, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2568, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.595, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan", "opponent_faced": "John Egan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "John Egan", "matchup_zone": "RW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.595, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2568, "skill_edge": 0.2027, "height_edge": -0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.8879, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "John Egan", "market_value": 1500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.2619 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0502, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9598, "after": 2.4631 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1923, "after": 1.4985 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7627, "after": 0.9586 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2787, "after": 0.3503 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2084, "after": 0.2619 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1196, "after": 0.1503 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0911, "after": 0.1145 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3047, "expected_assists": 0.2063, "assist_rate": 0.2328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2619, "goal_rate": 0.3503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9586, "total_shots": 2.4631, "rating": 7.3178, "minutes": 82.59, "total_pass": 61.1772, "accurate_pass": 54.5625, "duels_won": 2.0159, "total_long_balls": 3.4602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7338, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3308, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2678, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.8465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.2948, "crosses_total": 2.0104, "crosses_accurate": 0.312, "touches": 73.6837, "possession_lost": 12.4921, "dispossessed": 0.8089, "duels_lost": 3.3068, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3248, "interceptions": 0.2676, "tackles_won": 0.4017, "tackles": 0.6151, "clearances": 0.3032, "total_contest": 1.5153, "won_contest": 0.5291, "challenges_lost": 0.7162, "fouls": 0.4662, "fouls_drawn": 0.8191, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2799, "big_chances_missed": 0.1503, "xgot": 0.1145, "ball_carries": 29.7048, "total_progression": 77.3481, "progressive_carries": 2.2558, "shots_off_target": 1.4985, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2568, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.595, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan", "opponent_faced": "John Egan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.98 (squad xG sum 1.4874, xG scale 1.3285, xA scale 1.2370, team xA 1.58 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3047, "expected_assists": 0.2552, "assist_rate": 0.2328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3479, "goal_rate": 0.3503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9586, "total_shots": 2.4631, "rating": 7.3178, "minutes": 82.59, "total_pass": 61.1772, "accurate_pass": 54.5625, "duels_won": 2.0159, "total_long_balls": 3.4602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7338, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3308, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2678, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.8465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.2948, "crosses_total": 2.0104, "crosses_accurate": 0.312, "touches": 73.6837, "possession_lost": 12.4921, "dispossessed": 0.8089, "duels_lost": 3.3068, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3248, "interceptions": 0.2676, "tackles_won": 0.4017, "tackles": 0.6151, "clearances": 0.3032, "total_contest": 1.5153, "won_contest": 0.5291, "challenges_lost": 0.7162, "fouls": 0.4662, "fouls_drawn": 0.8191, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2799, "big_chances_missed": 0.1503, "xgot": 0.1521, "ball_carries": 29.7048, "total_progression": 77.3481, "progressive_carries": 2.2558, "shots_off_target": 1.4985, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2568, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.595, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan", "opponent_faced": "John Egan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1034 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.976, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4874, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2779, "team_expected_assists": 1.5808, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3285, "xa_scale": 1.237, "opponent_lambda": 0.82, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2619, "after": 0.3479 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.2063, "after": 0.2552 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2799, "big_chances_missed": 0.1503, "xgot": 0.1521, "ball_carries": 29.7048, "total_progression": 77.3481, "progressive_carries": 2.2558, "shots_off_target": 1.4985, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2568, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.595, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan", "opponent_faced": "John Egan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1034, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 40, "fifa_rank": 95.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3047, "expected_assists": 0.2552, "assist_rate": 0.2328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3479, "goal_rate": 0.3503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9586, "total_shots": 2.4631, "rating": 7.3178, "minutes": 82.59, "total_pass": 61.1772, "accurate_pass": 54.5625, "duels_won": 2.0159, "total_long_balls": 3.4602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7338, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3308, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2678, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.8465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.2948, "crosses_total": 2.0104, "crosses_accurate": 0.312, "touches": 73.6837, "possession_lost": 12.4921, "dispossessed": 0.8089, "duels_lost": 3.3068, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3248, "interceptions": 0.2676, "tackles_won": 0.4017, 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0.2938, "goal_rate": 0.3503, "scorer_weight": 0.4349, "squad_weight_total": 2.0855, "weight_share": 0.2085, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bukayo Saka", "weight": 0.5448, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5448, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4349 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3047, "expected_assists": 0.2552, "assist_rate": 0.2328, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3479, "goal_rate": 0.3503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9586, "total_shots": 2.4631, "rating": 7.3178, "minutes": 82.59, "total_pass": 61.1772, "accurate_pass": 54.5625, "duels_won": 2.0159, "total_long_balls": 3.4602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7338, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3308, 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"totalClearance", "margin": -0.08882 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.035506 } ], "others_margin": 0.121992 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.47704458236694336, "model_output": 0.477, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2284 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2025 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0442, "total": 0.477, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.228408 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.202482 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.02122 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.019416 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.012329 } ], "others_margin": -0.044263 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.739657878875732, "model_output": 6.7397, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0198, "total": 6.7397, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.017429 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017053 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.01382 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013082 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012731 } ], "others_margin": -0.019865 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0136, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3416, "tackles": 0.7388, "tackles_won": 0.4573, "clearances": 0.8044, "aerial_won": 0.8124, "total_shots": 0.4835, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 16.35, "total_pass": 8.5304, "accurate_pass": 6.1887, "duels_won": 1.9877, "total_long_balls": 0.7699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1427, "total_own_half_passes": 2.904, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9685, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6264, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2202, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.085, "possession_lost": 3.4152, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 1.7106, "aerial_lost": 1.0371, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1427, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2733, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0351, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6946, "total_progression": 12.5316, "progressive_carries": 0.5428, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4835 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 63000000, "quality_factor": 0.8589, "boost_factor": 1.0136, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0106)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.339, "tackles": 0.7388, "tackles_won": 0.4535, "clearances": 0.8044, "aerial_won": 0.8124, "total_shots": 0.4804, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 16.35, "total_pass": 8.5304, "accurate_pass": 6.1887, "duels_won": 1.9877, "total_long_balls": 0.7699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1427, "total_own_half_passes": 2.904, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9685, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6264, 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11.6818, "progressive_carries": 0.506, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.251, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.24 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.24, "projection_minutes": 16.35, "minutes_scale": 0.9322, "appearance_probability": 0.251 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.316, "tackles": 0.6887, "tackles_won": 0.4227, "clearances": 0.7499, "aerial_won": 0.7573, "total_shots": 0.4507, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 15.24, "total_pass": 7.9519, "accurate_pass": 5.769, "duels_won": 1.8529, "total_long_balls": 0.7177, "accurate_long_balls": 0.133, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.835, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.934, "crosses_total": 0.0009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.1977, "possession_lost": 3.1836, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 1.5946, "aerial_lost": 1.0371, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.133, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.253, "fouls_drawn": 0.0009, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0019, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "expected_goals": 0.0327, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5797, "total_progression": 11.6818, "progressive_carries": 0.506, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.251, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.24 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.316, "tackles": 0.6887, "tackles_won": 0.4227, "clearances": 0.7499, "aerial_won": 0.7573, "total_shots": 0.4507, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 15.24, "total_pass": 7.9519, "accurate_pass": 5.769, "duels_won": 1.8529, "total_long_balls": 0.7177, "accurate_long_balls": 0.133, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.835, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.934, "crosses_total": 0.0009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.1977, "possession_lost": 3.1836, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 1.5946, "aerial_lost": 1.0371, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.133, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.253, "fouls_drawn": 0.0009, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0327, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5797, "total_progression": 11.6818, "progressive_carries": 0.506, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.251, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.24, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.251, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.316, "tackles": 0.6887, "tackles_won": 0.4227, "clearances": 0.7499, "aerial_won": 0.7573, "total_shots": 0.4507, "rating": 6.7397, "minutes": 15.24, "total_pass": 7.9519, "accurate_pass": 5.769, "duels_won": 1.8529, "total_long_balls": 0.7177, "accurate_long_balls": 0.133, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.835, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.934, "crosses_total": 0.0009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.1977, "possession_lost": 3.1836, "dispossessed": 0.4002, "duels_lost": 1.5946, "aerial_lost": 1.0371, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.133, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.253, "fouls_drawn": 0.0009, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0327, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0111, quality 0.866)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2357, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.04, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goals": 0.0367, "goal_rate": 0.0367, "shots_on_target": 0.093, "total_shots": 0.3758, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 16.8427, "accurate_pass": 14.5311, "duels_won": 1.585, "total_long_balls": 0.9029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5144, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4937, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8908, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.349, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6404, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2033, "possession_lost": 3.7212, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 2.0355, "aerial_won": 0.8369, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.5085, "tackles_won": 0.4177, "tackles": 0.6875, "clearances": 0.3078, 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"total_own_half_passes": 6.4937, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8908, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.349, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6404, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2033, "possession_lost": 3.7212, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 2.0355, "aerial_won": 0.8369, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.5078, "tackles_won": 0.4181, "tackles": 0.6875, "clearances": 0.3078, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6916, "fouls_drawn": 0.0605, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5926, "total_progression": 13.6544, "progressive_carries": 0.2607, "shots_off_target": 0.2828 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0013, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2212, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 18.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2237, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "expected_goals": 0.0329, "goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "shots_on_target": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0.3567, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 15.9883, "accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2021, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0262, "possession_lost": 3.5324, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 1.9322, "aerial_won": 0.7944, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "tackles": 0.6526, "clearances": 0.2922, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6565, "fouls_drawn": 0.0574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4104, "total_progression": 12.9617, "progressive_carries": 0.2475, "shots_off_target": 0.2685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.9, "projection_minutes": 19.91, "minutes_scale": 0.9493, "appearance_probability": 0.727 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2237, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "expected_goals": 0.0329, "goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "shots_on_target": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0.3567, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 15.9883, "accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2021, "crosses_total": 0.0, 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"assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0329, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0.3567, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 15.9883, "accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2021, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0262, "possession_lost": 3.5324, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 1.9322, "aerial_won": 0.7944, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "tackles": 0.6526, "clearances": 0.2922, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6565, "fouls_drawn": 0.0574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4104, "total_progression": 12.9617, "progressive_carries": 0.2475, "shots_off_target": 0.2685, 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"accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2021, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0262, "possession_lost": 3.5324, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 1.9322, "aerial_won": 0.7944, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "tackles": 0.6526, "clearances": 0.2922, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6565, "fouls_drawn": 0.0574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4104, "total_progression": 12.9617, "progressive_carries": 0.2475, "shots_off_target": 0.2685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "creation_factor": 1.2158 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.976, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4874, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2779, "team_expected_assists": 1.5808, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3285, "xa_scale": 1.237, "opponent_lambda": 0.82, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.727 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2237, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0.3567, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 15.9883, "accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2021, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0262, "possession_lost": 3.5324, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 1.9322, "aerial_won": 0.7944, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "tackles": 0.6526, "clearances": 0.2922, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6565, "fouls_drawn": 0.0574, "blocks": 0.0, 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2237, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0.3567, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 15.9883, "accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2021, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0262, "possession_lost": 3.5324, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 1.9322, "aerial_won": 0.7944, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "tackles": 0.6526, "clearances": 0.2922, 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"weight_share": 0.0156, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "appearance_weight": 0.727, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bukayo Saka", "weight": 0.5448, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5448, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4349 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2237, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0.3567, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 15.9883, "accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0198, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "creation_factor": 1.2158, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0198, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "provider_weight": 0.0244, "squad_weight_total": 1.5615, "weight_share": 0.0157, "creation_factor": 1.2158, "appearance_weight": 0.727, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.306, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.306, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2816, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bukayo Saka" ] } ] } } ] }, "Max Dowman": { "player_id": 1917626, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 56, "height": 183, "market_value": 52000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, 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"expected_assists": 0.0215, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025103.0, "match_date": "2025-08-31", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.058, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0756 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0918, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0451 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0038 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0041, "total": 0.0403, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.674953 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.220435 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.141492 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.085226 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.057959 } ], "others_margin": -0.096548 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05368460714817047, "model_output": 0.0537, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.004 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": 0.0036, "total": 0.0537, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.568643 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.175871 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.100223 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.077923 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.068489 } ], "others_margin": 0.068613 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22626997530460358, "model_output": 0.2263, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1298 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0434 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": 0.0134, "total": 0.2263, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.524619 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.207746 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.183408 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.060973 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.038877 } ], "others_margin": 0.060492 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5462558269500732, "model_output": 0.5463, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4322 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1841 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1189 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0409 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0323 } ], "others": 0.0502, "total": 0.5463, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.432183 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.184055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.118852 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.040941 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.032251 } ], "others_margin": 0.050017 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.676353931427002, "model_output": 6.6764, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.081 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0449 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 6.6764, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.081001 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044862 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.039297 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019899 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007596 } ], "others_margin": -0.028195 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0376, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4754, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "assists": 0.0515, "assist_rate": 0.0515, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goals": 0.0557, "goal_rate": 0.0557, "shots_on_target": 0.2348, "total_shots": 0.5668, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 16.42, "total_pass": 5.5112, "accurate_pass": 5.1103, "duels_won": 1.7766, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7105, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7105, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3997, "crosses_total": 1.0177, "crosses_accurate": 0.3354, "touches": 12.9185, "possession_lost": 3.6833, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 2.8019, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.1655, "tackles_won": 0.1728, "tackles": 0.1728, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.288, "won_contest": 0.8856, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.3698, "fouls_drawn": 0.7181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.119, "ball_carries": 5.4853, "total_progression": 27.4606, "progressive_carries": 0.9938, "shots_off_target": 0.332 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0376, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.4 to 23.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1705, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.53, "projection_minutes": 16.42, "minutes_scale": 1.433, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1705, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1705, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.98 (squad xG sum 1.4874, xG scale 1.3285, xA scale 1.2370, team xA 1.58 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1291, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.976, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4874, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2779, "team_expected_assists": 1.5808, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3285, "xa_scale": 1.237, "opponent_lambda": 0.82, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0599, "after": 0.0454 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0576, "after": 0.0406 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1291, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1510, "fifa_rank": 945.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1291, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0436, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0436, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "scorer_weight": 0.0536, "squad_weight_total": 2.0855, "weight_share": 0.0257, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bukayo Saka", "weight": 0.5448, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5448, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4349 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0392, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0392, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "provider_weight": 0.0467, "squad_weight_total": 1.5615, "weight_share": 0.0299, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.306, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.306, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2816, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bukayo Saka" ] } ] } } ] }, "Kai Havertz": { "player_id": 836705, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 29, "height": 193, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1266, "goal_rate": 0.1428, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 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"bench_expected_minutes": 26.92, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.367, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"model_output": 6.6226, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.058 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0286, "total": 6.6226, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057959 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029019 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011966 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011597 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011546 } ], "others_margin": -0.028692 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0106, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.083, "goals": 0.1049, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "shots_on_target": 0.2069, "total_shots": 0.6165, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 4.8842, "accurate_pass": 3.6974, "duels_won": 0.8839, "total_long_balls": 0.1436, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1436, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9684, "crosses_total": 0.1498, "crosses_accurate": 0.0882, "touches": 9.3074, "possession_lost": 3.2764, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.3422, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.5534, "won_contest": 0.0882, "ball_recovery": 1.0556, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 0.9637, "fouls_drawn": 0.3288, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1436, "tackles": 0.2186, "clearances": 0.138, "blocks": 0.1098, "big_chances_created": 0.3659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0953, "xgot": 0.0917, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0048, "total_progression": 15.942, "progressive_carries": 0.911, "shots_off_target": 0.4096 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0106, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0964, "goals": 0.1218, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0438, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.1065, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.85, "projection_minutes": 23.12, "minutes_scale": 1.1613, "appearance_probability": 0.63 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0964, "goals": 0.1218, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0438, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.1065, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0964, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0438, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.1065, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.98 (squad xG sum 1.4874, xG scale 1.3285, xA scale 1.2370, team xA 1.58 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.0891, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1735, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.976, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4874, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2779, "team_expected_assists": 1.5808, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3285, "xa_scale": 1.237, "opponent_lambda": 0.82, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.63 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0964, "after": 0.0807 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0438, "after": 0.0341 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.0891, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1735, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 116, "fifa_rank": 96.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.0891, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0757, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1735, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0757, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "scorer_weight": 0.0947, "squad_weight_total": 2.0855, "weight_share": 0.0454, "finishing_factor": 1.1735, "appearance_weight": 0.63, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bukayo Saka", "weight": 0.5448, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5448, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4349 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.0891, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0757, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0332, "finishing_factor": 1.1735, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0332, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0273, "squad_weight_total": 1.5615, "weight_share": 0.0175, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.63, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.306, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.306, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2816, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bukayo Saka" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Martín Zubimendi": { "player_id": 966837, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 36, "height": 181, "market_value": 67000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 3.5324, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0198, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "creation_factor": 1.2158, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363891.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1275, "expected_assists": 0.005, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, 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"contribution": -0.2018 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0169 } ], "others": 0.016, "total": 0.3716, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.354064 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.201828 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.035515 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.021024 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.016856 } ], "others_margin": 0.015978 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.720966815948486, "model_output": 6.721, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.094 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0032, "total": 6.721, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.093965 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021201 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020114 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009387 } ], "others_margin": -0.003254 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0111, quality 0.866)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2357, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.04, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goals": 0.0367, "goal_rate": 0.0367, "shots_on_target": 0.093, "total_shots": 0.3758, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 16.8427, "accurate_pass": 14.5311, "duels_won": 1.585, "total_long_balls": 0.9029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5144, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4937, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8908, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.349, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6404, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2033, "possession_lost": 3.7212, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 2.0355, "aerial_won": 0.8369, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.5085, "tackles_won": 0.4177, "tackles": 0.6875, "clearances": 0.3078, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6925, "fouls_drawn": 0.0606, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5926, "total_progression": 13.6544, "progressive_carries": 0.2607, "shots_off_target": 0.2828 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 67000000, "quality_factor": 0.8661, "boost_factor": 1.0111, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0013)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2357, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goals": 0.0367, "goal_rate": 0.0367, "shots_on_target": 0.0929, "total_shots": 0.3753, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 16.8427, "accurate_pass": 14.5311, "duels_won": 1.585, "total_long_balls": 0.9029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5144, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4937, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8908, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.349, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6404, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2033, "possession_lost": 3.7212, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 2.0355, "aerial_won": 0.8369, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.5078, "tackles_won": 0.4181, "tackles": 0.6875, "clearances": 0.3078, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6916, "fouls_drawn": 0.0605, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5926, "total_progression": 13.6544, "progressive_carries": 0.2607, "shots_off_target": 0.2828 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0013, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2212, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 18.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2237, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "expected_goals": 0.0329, "goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "shots_on_target": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0.3567, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 15.9883, "accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2021, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0262, "possession_lost": 3.5324, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 1.9322, "aerial_won": 0.7944, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "tackles": 0.6526, "clearances": 0.2922, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6565, "fouls_drawn": 0.0574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4104, "total_progression": 12.9617, "progressive_carries": 0.2475, "shots_off_target": 0.2685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.9, "projection_minutes": 19.91, "minutes_scale": 0.9493, "appearance_probability": 0.727 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2237, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "expected_goals": 0.0329, "goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "shots_on_target": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0.3567, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 15.9883, "accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2021, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0262, "possession_lost": 3.5324, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 1.9322, "aerial_won": 0.7944, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "tackles": 0.6526, "clearances": 0.2922, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6565, "fouls_drawn": 0.0574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4104, "total_progression": 12.9617, "progressive_carries": 0.2475, "shots_off_target": 0.2685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2237, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0329, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0.3567, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 15.9883, "accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2021, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0262, "possession_lost": 3.5324, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 1.9322, "aerial_won": 0.7944, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "tackles": 0.6526, "clearances": 0.2922, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6565, "fouls_drawn": 0.0574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4104, "total_progression": 12.9617, "progressive_carries": 0.2475, "shots_off_target": 0.2685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.98 (squad xG sum 1.4874, xG scale 1.3285, xA scale 1.2370, team xA 1.58 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2237, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0.3567, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 15.9883, "accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2021, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0262, "possession_lost": 3.5324, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 1.9322, "aerial_won": 0.7944, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "tackles": 0.6526, "clearances": 0.2922, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6565, "fouls_drawn": 0.0574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4104, "total_progression": 12.9617, "progressive_carries": 0.2475, "shots_off_target": 0.2685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "creation_factor": 1.2158 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.976, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4874, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2779, "team_expected_assists": 1.5808, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3285, "xa_scale": 1.237, "opponent_lambda": 0.82, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.727 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2237, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0.3567, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 15.9883, "accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2021, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0262, "possession_lost": 3.5324, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 1.9322, "aerial_won": 0.7944, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "tackles": 0.6526, "clearances": 0.2922, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6565, "fouls_drawn": 0.0574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4104, "total_progression": 12.9617, "progressive_carries": 0.2475, "shots_off_target": 0.2685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "creation_factor": 1.2158, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 54, "fifa_rank": 99.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2237, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0.3567, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 15.9883, "accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2021, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0262, "possession_lost": 3.5324, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 1.9322, "aerial_won": 0.7944, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "tackles": 0.6526, "clearances": 0.2922, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6565, "fouls_drawn": 0.0574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4104, "total_progression": 12.9617, "progressive_carries": 0.2475, "shots_off_target": 0.2685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "creation_factor": 1.2158, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "scorer_weight": 0.0325, "squad_weight_total": 2.0855, "weight_share": 0.0156, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "appearance_weight": 0.727, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bukayo Saka", "weight": 0.5448, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5448, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4349 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2237, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0.3567, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 15.9883, "accurate_pass": 13.794, "duels_won": 1.5046, "total_long_balls": 0.8571, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.592, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2021, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.0262, "possession_lost": 3.5324, "dispossessed": 0.553, "duels_lost": 1.9322, "aerial_won": 0.7944, "aerial_lost": 0.6295, "interceptions": 0.482, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "tackles": 0.6526, "clearances": 0.2922, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1606, "fouls": 0.6565, "fouls_drawn": 0.0574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4104, "total_progression": 12.9617, "progressive_carries": 0.2475, "shots_off_target": 0.2685, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0198, "finishing_factor": 1.0229, "creation_factor": 1.2158, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0198, "assist_rate": 0.0379, "provider_weight": 0.0244, "squad_weight_total": 1.5615, "weight_share": 0.0157, "creation_factor": 1.2158, "appearance_weight": 0.727, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.306, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.306, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2816, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bukayo Saka" ] } ] } } ] }, "Viktor Gyökeres": { "player_id": 804508, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 187, "market_value": 52000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0891, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, 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"margin": -0.040523 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.038838 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.024573 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.024493 } ], "others_margin": 0.014751 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.20469798147678375, "model_output": 0.2047, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2173 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5269, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2467 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0125, "total": 0.2047, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.640773, 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"name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0058, "total": 0.0373, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.3716 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.132718 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.126668 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.115578 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.070739 } ], "others_margin": -0.144258 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.35802915692329407, "model_output": 0.358, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2738 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0344 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0176, "total": 0.358, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.504007 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086005 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.052213 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.039974 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.033379 } ], "others_margin": -0.047404 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.622554779052734, "model_output": 6.6226, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.058 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0286, "total": 6.6226, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057959 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029019 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011966 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011597 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011546 } ], "others_margin": -0.028692 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0106, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.083, "goals": 0.1049, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "shots_on_target": 0.2069, "total_shots": 0.6165, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 4.8842, "accurate_pass": 3.6974, "duels_won": 0.8839, "total_long_balls": 0.1436, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1436, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9684, "crosses_total": 0.1498, "crosses_accurate": 0.0882, "touches": 9.3074, "possession_lost": 3.2764, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.3422, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.5534, "won_contest": 0.0882, "ball_recovery": 1.0556, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 0.9637, "fouls_drawn": 0.3288, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1436, "tackles": 0.2186, "clearances": 0.138, "blocks": 0.1098, "big_chances_created": 0.3659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0953, "xgot": 0.0917, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0048, "total_progression": 15.942, "progressive_carries": 0.911, "shots_off_target": 0.4096 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0106, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0964, "goals": 0.1218, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0438, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.1065, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.85, "projection_minutes": 23.12, "minutes_scale": 1.1613, "appearance_probability": 0.63 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0964, "goals": 0.1218, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0438, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.1065, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0964, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0438, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.1065, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.98 (squad xG sum 1.4874, xG scale 1.3285, xA scale 1.2370, team xA 1.58 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.0891, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1735, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.976, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4874, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2779, "team_expected_assists": 1.5808, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3285, "xa_scale": 1.237, "opponent_lambda": 0.82, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.63 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0964, "after": 0.0807 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0438, "after": 0.0341 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.0891, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1735, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 116, "fifa_rank": 96.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.0891, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0757, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1735, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0757, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "scorer_weight": 0.0947, "squad_weight_total": 2.0855, "weight_share": 0.0454, "finishing_factor": 1.1735, "appearance_weight": 0.63, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bukayo Saka", "weight": 0.5448, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5448, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4349 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2403, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0.4202, "rating": 6.6226, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 5.6722, "accurate_pass": 4.2939, "duels_won": 1.0265, "total_long_balls": 0.1668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1668, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4473, "crosses_total": 0.174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1024, "touches": 10.8091, "possession_lost": 3.805, "dispossessed": 0.3458, "duels_lost": 2.7201, "aerial_lost": 0.72, "total_contest": 0.6427, "won_contest": 0.1024, "ball_recovery": 1.2259, "challenges_lost": 0.0332, "fouls": 1.1192, "fouls_drawn": 0.3818, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1668, "tackles": 0.2539, "clearances": 0.1603, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.4249, "big_chances_missed": 0.1107, "xgot": 0.0891, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4896, "total_progression": 18.5141, "progressive_carries": 1.058, "shots_off_target": 0.4757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0757, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0332, "finishing_factor": 1.1735, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0332, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0273, "squad_weight_total": 1.5615, "weight_share": 0.0175, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.63, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.306, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.306, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2816, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bukayo Saka" ] } ] } } ] }, "Max Dowman": { "player_id": 1917626, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 56, "height": 183, "market_value": 52000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1291, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0436, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0392, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363891.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650.0, 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"Arsenal", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 36, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023987.0, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9692, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025103.0, "match_date": "2025-08-31", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.058, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025065.0, "match_date": "2025-08-23", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6764, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Max Dowman", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Manuel Rivera", "ranking": 1505 }, { "player_name": "Dong-hyun Kang", "ranking": 1506 }, { "player_name": "Hwang Seok-ki", "ranking": 1507 }, { "player_name": "Ollabergan Karimov", "ranking": 1508 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Fidalgo", "ranking": 1509 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Evangelista", "ranking": 1511 }, { "player_name": "Fábio", "ranking": 1512 }, { "player_name": "Mukhammadaziz Ibrakhimov", "ranking": 1513 }, { "player_name": "Igor Golban", "ranking": 1514 }, { "player_name": "German Barkovskiy", "ranking": 1515 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.004 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": 0.0036, "total": 0.0537, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.568643 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.175871 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.100223 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.077923 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.068489 } ], "others_margin": 0.068613 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22626997530460358, "model_output": 0.2263, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1298 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0434 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": 0.0134, "total": 0.2263, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.524619 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.207746 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.183408 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.060973 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.038877 } ], "others_margin": 0.060492 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5462558269500732, "model_output": 0.5463, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4322 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1841 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1189 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0409 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0323 } ], "others": 0.0502, "total": 0.5463, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.432183 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.184055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.118852 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.040941 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.032251 } ], "others_margin": 0.050017 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.676353931427002, "model_output": 6.6764, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.081 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0449 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 6.6764, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.081001 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044862 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.039297 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019899 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007596 } ], "others_margin": -0.028195 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0376, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4754, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "assists": 0.0515, "assist_rate": 0.0515, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goals": 0.0557, "goal_rate": 0.0557, "shots_on_target": 0.2348, "total_shots": 0.5668, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 16.42, "total_pass": 5.5112, "accurate_pass": 5.1103, "duels_won": 1.7766, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7105, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7105, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3997, "crosses_total": 1.0177, "crosses_accurate": 0.3354, "touches": 12.9185, "possession_lost": 3.6833, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 2.8019, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.1655, "tackles_won": 0.1728, "tackles": 0.1728, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.288, "won_contest": 0.8856, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.3698, "fouls_drawn": 0.7181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.119, "ball_carries": 5.4853, "total_progression": 27.4606, "progressive_carries": 0.9938, "shots_off_target": 0.332 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0376, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.4 to 23.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1705, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.53, "projection_minutes": 16.42, "minutes_scale": 1.433, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assists": 0.0738, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1705, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1705, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.98 (squad xG sum 1.4874, xG scale 1.3285, xA scale 1.2370, team xA 1.58 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1291, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.976, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4874, "squad_xa_sum": 1.2779, "team_expected_assists": 1.5808, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3285, "xa_scale": 1.237, "opponent_lambda": 0.82, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0599, "after": 0.0454 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0576, "after": 0.0406 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1291, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1510, "fifa_rank": 945.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1291, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0436, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0436, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "scorer_weight": 0.0536, "squad_weight_total": 2.0855, "weight_share": 0.0257, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bukayo Saka", "weight": 0.5448, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5448, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4349 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6813, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0798, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 0.8123, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 23.53, "total_pass": 7.8977, "accurate_pass": 7.3232, "duels_won": 2.5459, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0182, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8795, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3049, "crosses_total": 1.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.4806, "touches": 18.5125, "possession_lost": 5.2782, "dispossessed": 0.5023, "duels_lost": 4.0152, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3062, "interceptions": 0.2372, "tackles_won": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.2476, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.2788, "won_contest": 1.2691, "challenges_lost": 0.2212, "fouls": 0.5299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1291, "ball_carries": 7.8606, "total_progression": 39.3516, "progressive_carries": 1.4241, "shots_off_target": 0.4758, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.671, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0436, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0392, "finishing_factor": 1.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0392, "assist_rate": 0.0738, "provider_weight": 0.0467, "squad_weight_total": 1.5615, "weight_share": 0.0299, "creation_factor": 1.1506, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Declan Rice", "weight": 0.306, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.306, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2816, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bukayo Saka" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.98, "expected_assists": 1.58, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 537, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 7.05, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3 } }, "Hull": { "formation": "5-4-1", "players": { "Konstantinos Tzolakis": { "player_id": 953414, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 193, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0568, "rating": 6.8645, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 18, "total_long_balls": 30, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 55, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.9587, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 22.6144, "duels_won": 2, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.1716, "shots_faced": 18.8, "expected_saves": 4.6, "high_pressure_saves": 1.58, "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0583, "total": 0.4678, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052457 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026464 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.021047 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015482 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013373 } ], "others_margin": -0.058332 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.5849995613098145, "model_output": 6.585, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", 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"importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7872 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5426 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3715 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.2078 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.1181 } ], "others": 0.1717, "total": 5.3784, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.207385 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12142 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.075366 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.022427 } ], "others_margin": 0.032462 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.5754833221435547, 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"others_margin": -0.16573 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5028653144836426, "model_output": 0.5029, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.051 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.038, "total": 0.5029, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024157 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016557 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.013688 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012649 } ], "others_margin": -0.038022 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.712960243225098, "model_output": 6.713, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0464 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 6.713, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.046441 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9928, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.845, "tackles": 1.4316, "tackles_won": 0.8202, "clearances": 5.3397, "aerial_won": 1.5641, "total_shots": 0.4993, "rating": 6.713, "minutes": 81.81, "total_pass": 20.9522, "accurate_pass": 16.1352, "duels_won": 3.2904, "total_long_balls": 3.7174, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8369, "total_own_half_passes": 12.924, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9959, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1393, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.2854, "possession_lost": 5.9759, "dispossessed": 0.5397, "duels_lost": 3.2577, "aerial_lost": 2.2469, "total_contest": 0.1938, "won_contest": 0.1938, "ball_recovery": 1.8984, "challenges_lost": 0.2261, "fouls": 0.2451, "fouls_drawn": 0.3669, "blocks": 1.0693, "goals": 0.0, 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"importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2395 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1688 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1094 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0638 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0539 } ], "others": -0.1215, "total": 1.6482, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.161154 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.099739 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.059727 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.034414 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.029998 } ], "others_margin": -0.071126 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.415475457906723, "model_output": 0.4155, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0971 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0515 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0311, "total": 0.4155, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.097124 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05152 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.011394 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010953 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010636 } ], "others_margin": -0.031247 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.774784088134766, "model_output": 6.7748, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 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9, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9928, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1686, "tackles": 1.9685, "tackles_won": 1.2722, "clearances": 4.3215, "aerial_won": 1.6363, "total_shots": 0.4125, "rating": 6.7748, "minutes": 88.87, "total_pass": 29.8176, "accurate_pass": 23.3135, "duels_won": 4.868, "total_long_balls": 5.5865, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3898, "total_own_half_passes": 17.1531, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3796, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6645, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9339, "crosses_total": 0.6781, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.5711, "possession_lost": 8.2971, "dispossessed": 0.368, "duels_lost": 2.8407, "aerial_lost": 0.862, "total_contest": 0.9488, "won_contest": 0.7228, "ball_recovery": 3.0357, "challenges_lost": 0.9529, "fouls": 0.4317, "fouls_drawn": 0.0621, "blocks": 0.3876, "goals": 0.0528, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9919, "tackles": 1.3318, "tackles_won": 0.7667, "clearances": 6.517, "aerial_won": 2.2773, "total_shots": 0.4929, "rating": 6.7891, "minutes": 77.3, "total_pass": 34.4631, "accurate_pass": 28.8846, "duels_won": 3.2142, "total_long_balls": 5.2249, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.3129, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3948, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5715, "crosses_total": 0.4294, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.0385, "possession_lost": 6.4689, "dispossessed": 0.1245, "duels_lost": 3.9096, "aerial_lost": 1.9268, "total_contest": 0.0167, "won_contest": 0.0145, "ball_recovery": 2.9502, "challenges_lost": 0.4342, "fouls": 1.5087, "fouls_drawn": 0.3296, "blocks": 1.4101, "goals": 0.0953, 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0.2585, "after": 0.2667 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9919, "after": 0.9839 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.5087, "after": 1.5019 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4929, "after": 0.4992 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 1.3318, "tackles_won": 0.7658, "clearances": 6.517, "aerial_won": 2.2773, "total_shots": 0.5011, "rating": 6.7891, "minutes": 77.3, "total_pass": 34.4631, "accurate_pass": 28.8846, "duels_won": 3.2142, "total_long_balls": 5.2249, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.3129, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3948, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5715, "crosses_total": 0.4259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.0385, "possession_lost": 6.4689, "dispossessed": 0.1245, "duels_lost": 3.9096, "aerial_lost": 1.9268, "total_contest": 0.0167, "won_contest": 0.0145, 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1.4101, "goal_rate": 0.0999, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.071, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "shots_on_target": 0.2667, "big_chances_created": 0.0368, "xgot": 0.0598, "ball_carries": 12.3114, "total_progression": 19.7066, "progressive_carries": 0.2906, "key_pass": 0.0517, "shots_off_target": 0.2344, "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 0.7338, xG scale 1.1175, xA scale 1.3349, team xA 0.53 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 1.3318, "tackles_won": 0.7658, "clearances": 6.517, "aerial_won": 2.2773, "total_shots": 0.5011, 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"matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2388, "creation_factor": 0.8741 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.82, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7338, "squad_xa_sum": 0.3993, "team_expected_assists": 0.533, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1175, "xa_scale": 1.3349, "opponent_lambda": 1.976, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.071, "after": 0.0793 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 1.3318, "tackles_won": 0.7658, "clearances": 6.517, "aerial_won": 2.2773, "total_shots": 0.5011, "rating": 6.7891, "minutes": 77.3, "total_pass": 34.4631, "accurate_pass": 28.8846, "duels_won": 3.2142, "total_long_balls": 5.2249, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9497, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.3129, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3948, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5715, "crosses_total": 0.4259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.0385, "possession_lost": 6.4689, "dispossessed": 0.1245, "duels_lost": 3.9096, "aerial_lost": 1.9268, "total_contest": 0.0167, "won_contest": 0.0145, "ball_recovery": 2.9502, "challenges_lost": 0.4342, "fouls": 1.5019, "fouls_drawn": 0.3269, "blocks": 1.4101, "goal_rate": 0.0999, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0793, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "shots_on_target": 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"key_pass": 0.0517, "shots_off_target": 0.2344, "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0762, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2388, "creation_factor": 0.8741, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0762, "goal_rate": 0.0999, "scorer_weight": 0.0982, "squad_weight_total": 0.8559, "weight_share": 0.1148, "finishing_factor": 1.2388, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9839, "tackles": 1.3318, "tackles_won": 0.7658, "clearances": 6.517, "aerial_won": 2.2773, "total_shots": 0.5011, "rating": 6.7891, "minutes": 77.3, "total_pass": 34.4631, "accurate_pass": 28.8846, "duels_won": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.513)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8218, "expected_assists": 0.07, "assists": 0.0794, "assist_rate": 0.0794, "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goals": 0.0721, "goal_rate": 0.0721, "shots_on_target": 0.3058, "total_shots": 1.0386, "rating": 6.8155, "minutes": 84.91, "total_pass": 26.9353, "accurate_pass": 21.8477, "duels_won": 4.2131, "total_long_balls": 1.5879, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7973, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0342, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8415, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8137, "crosses_total": 1.1502, "crosses_accurate": 0.7501, "touches": 37.5452, "possession_lost": 7.2216, "dispossessed": 0.2179, "duels_lost": 2.7984, "aerial_won": 0.9208, "aerial_lost": 0.448, "interceptions": 0.4561, "tackles_won": 0.9232, "tackles": 2.011, "clearances": 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0.7328, "after": 0.533 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2963, "after": 0.2155 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.9208, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0717, "after": 0.0521 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0699, "after": 0.0508 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8218, "expected_assists": 0.07, "assist_rate": 0.0915, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0521, "goal_rate": 0.0508, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2155, "total_shots": 0.7485, "rating": 6.8155, "minutes": 84.91, "total_pass": 26.9353, "accurate_pass": 21.8477, "duels_won": 4.2131, "total_long_balls": 1.5879, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7973, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0342, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8415, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8137, "crosses_total": 1.1438, "crosses_accurate": 0.7501, "touches": 37.5452, "possession_lost": 7.2216, "dispossessed": 0.2179, "duels_lost": 2.7984, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.448, "interceptions": 0.442, "tackles_won": 0.9238, "tackles": 2.011, "clearances": 1.2692, "total_contest": 0.9267, "won_contest": 0.7607, "challenges_lost": 1.2883, "fouls": 0.701, "fouls_drawn": 0.5192, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1399, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0041, "ball_carries": 8.346, "total_progression": 15.598, "progressive_carries": 0.1269, "shots_off_target": 0.533, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7273, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Myles Lewis-Skelly", "opponent_faced": "Myles Lewis-Skelly", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 0.7338, xG scale 1.1175, xA scale 1.3349, team xA 0.53 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8218, "expected_assists": 0.0934, "assist_rate": 0.0915, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0582, "goal_rate": 0.0508, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2155, "total_shots": 0.7485, "rating": 6.8155, "minutes": 84.91, "total_pass": 26.9353, "accurate_pass": 21.8477, "duels_won": 4.2131, "total_long_balls": 1.5879, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7973, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0342, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8415, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8137, "crosses_total": 1.1438, "crosses_accurate": 0.7501, "touches": 37.5452, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9998, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5559, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "assists": 0.0663, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "expected_goals": 0.0525, "goals": 0.0607, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "shots_on_target": 0.2013, "total_shots": 0.7233, "rating": 6.7172, "minutes": 72.23, "total_pass": 14.4642, "accurate_pass": 9.4474, "duels_won": 3.0113, "total_long_balls": 1.4501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1479, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1866, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3598, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0875, "crosses_total": 0.4872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1069, "touches": 22.919, "possession_lost": 7.81, "dispossessed": 0.2408, "duels_lost": 3.0369, "aerial_won": 0.5216, "aerial_lost": 1.1887, "interceptions": 0.4733, "tackles_won": 0.5923, "tackles": 1.8964, "clearances": 0.3303, 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3.0113, "total_long_balls": 1.4501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1479, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1866, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3598, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0875, "crosses_total": 0.5183, "crosses_accurate": 0.1069, "touches": 22.919, "possession_lost": 7.81, "dispossessed": 0.2408, "duels_lost": 3.0369, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.1887, "interceptions": 0.4903, "tackles_won": 0.6063, "tackles": 1.8964, "clearances": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.3886, "won_contest": 0.3886, "challenges_lost": 0.6194, "fouls": 1.1362, "fouls_drawn": 0.1995, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1172, "total_progression": 47.936, "progressive_carries": 1.5637, "shots_off_target": 0.4177, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8002, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ben White", "opponent_faced": "Ben White", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ben White", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8002, "skill_edge": -0.1319, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.5146, "defender_skill": 0.8077, "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ben White", "market_value": 32000000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.8077 } ], "xg_override": 0.042 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5216, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7192, "after": 0.5755 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.522, "after": 0.4177 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1962, "after": 0.157 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0592, "after": 0.0474 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0525, "after": 0.042 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5559, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.042, "goal_rate": 0.0474, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.157, "total_shots": 0.5755, "rating": 6.7172, "minutes": 72.23, "total_pass": 14.4642, "accurate_pass": 9.4474, "duels_won": 3.0113, "total_long_balls": 1.4501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1479, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1866, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3598, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2776, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0875, "crosses_total": 0.5183, "crosses_accurate": 0.1069, "touches": 22.919, "possession_lost": 7.81, "dispossessed": 0.2408, "duels_lost": 3.0369, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.1887, "interceptions": 0.4903, "tackles_won": 0.6063, "tackles": 1.8964, "clearances": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.3886, "won_contest": 0.3886, "challenges_lost": 0.6194, "fouls": 1.1362, "fouls_drawn": 0.1995, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1172, "total_progression": 47.936, "progressive_carries": 1.5637, "shots_off_target": 0.4177, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8002, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ben White", "opponent_faced": "Ben White", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": 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[ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1678 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0623 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0532 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0441 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.036 } ], "others": -0.0496, "total": 0.6143, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.217215 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075248 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.069091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.061075 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.05281 } ], "others_margin": -0.07767 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.840206623077393, "model_output": 6.8402, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0539 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0173 } ], "others": -0.0345, "total": 6.8402, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053852 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027973 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025668 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.023526 }, { "name": 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0.0865, "tackles": 0.3534, "clearances": 0.9995, "blocks": 0.3359, "big_chances_created": 0.195, "big_chances_missed": 0.2131, "xgot": 0.238, "offsides": 0.195, "ball_carries": 6.2348, "total_progression": 17.9509, "progressive_carries": 0.7069, "shots_off_target": 1.2274 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7600000, "quality_factor": 0.4939, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0309)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3124, "goals": 0.3445, "goal_rate": 0.3445, "shots_on_target": 0.7095, "total_shots": 1.899, "expected_assists": 0.0313, "key_pass": 0.6136, "rating": 6.8402, "minutes": 87.07, "total_pass": 16.6732, "accurate_pass": 9.0379, "duels_won": 6.9987, "total_long_balls": 0.78, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4945, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0478, "crosses_total": 0.1606, 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"press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4897 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.038, "total": 0.2747, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.861048 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.053663 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034432 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.024817 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.023992 } ], "others_margin": -0.12963 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.4462584257125854, "model_output": 1.4463, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2526 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0857 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0803 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0496 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0503 } ], "others": 0.1887, "total": 1.4463, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.077259 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.076566 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.071924 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.041983 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.04084 } ], "others_margin": 0.139674 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7814813256263733, "model_output": 0.7815, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.809 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1363 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0275 } ], "others": 0.0591, "total": 0.7815, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.893176 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.217671 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.045602 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.042675 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038765 } ], "others_margin": 0.07851 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1608300656080246, "model_output": 0.1608, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1687 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0702 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.045, "total": 0.1608, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.168672 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.070208 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01806 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009975 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.008422 } ], "others_margin": -0.045081 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.644750595092773, "model_output": 6.6448, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0417, "total": 6.6448, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.044789 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.023486 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016113 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016007 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011941 } ], "others_margin": -0.041694 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0112, quality 0.594)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3493, "tackles": 0.5265, "tackles_won": 0.2777, "clearances": 1.4625, "aerial_won": 0.7902, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 23.89, "total_pass": 7.7166, "accurate_pass": 6.6234, "duels_won": 0.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.2292, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1316, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.559, "possession_lost": 1.0932, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8568, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2697, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2697, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2697, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8275, "total_progression": 3.0686, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1626 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16399999, "quality_factor": 0.5942, "boost_factor": 1.0112, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0126)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3449, "tackles": 0.5265, "tackles_won": 0.2742, "clearances": 1.4625, "aerial_won": 0.7902, "total_shots": 0.1605, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 23.89, "total_pass": 7.7166, "accurate_pass": 6.6234, "duels_won": 0.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.2292, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1316, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.559, "possession_lost": 1.0932, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8568, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2697, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2663, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2697, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8275, "total_progression": 3.0686, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1626 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0126, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2654, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Hull City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3305, "tackles": 0.5045, "tackles_won": 0.2627, "clearances": 1.4013, "aerial_won": 0.7571, "total_shots": 0.1558, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1558, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 23.89, "minutes_scale": 0.9581, "appearance_probability": 0.615 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3305, "tackles": 0.5045, "tackles_won": 0.2627, "clearances": 1.4013, "aerial_won": 0.7571, "total_shots": 0.1558, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1558, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3305, "tackles": 0.5045, "tackles_won": 0.2627, "clearances": 1.4013, "aerial_won": 0.7571, "total_shots": 0.1558, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1558, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 0.7338, xG scale 1.1175, xA scale 1.3349, team xA 0.53 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3305, "tackles": 0.5045, "tackles_won": 0.2627, "clearances": 1.4013, "aerial_won": 0.7571, "total_shots": 0.1558, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1558, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9141 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.82, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7338, "squad_xa_sum": 0.3993, "team_expected_assists": 0.533, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1175, "xa_scale": 1.3349, "opponent_lambda": 1.976, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.615 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0701 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0343 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0276 } ], "others": 0.1088, "total": 0.7642, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.352316 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.134719 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.064504 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.056103 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.04308 } ], "others_margin": 0.153621 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.886587619781494, "model_output": 6.8866, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1154, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3455, "total_shots": 1.2307, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "key_pass": 0.9106, "rating": 6.8866, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 25.8264, "accurate_pass": 16.8469, "duels_won": 8.5123, "total_long_balls": 3.3683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2833, "crosses_total": 3.4099, "crosses_accurate": 0.628, "touches": 54.6896, "possession_lost": 18.8509, "dispossessed": 1.2457, "duels_lost": 6.8147, "aerial_lost": 0.7172, "total_contest": 4.6766, "won_contest": 3.3848, "ball_recovery": 3.8132, "challenges_lost": 1.1897, "fouls": 1.8054, "fouls_drawn": 1.4577, "assist_rate": 0.196, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9069, "tackles_won": 1.8197, "tackles": 3.0303, "clearances": 1.1942, "blocks": 0.1511, "big_chances_created": 0.0746, "big_chances_missed": 0.1215, "xgot": 0.1771, "offsides": 0.2421, "ball_carries": 15.0313, "total_progression": 84.3649, "progressive_carries": 2.9326, "shots_off_target": 0.8852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.588, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 0.7338, xG scale 1.1175, xA scale 1.3349, team xA 0.53 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0624, "goal_rate": 0.1154, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3455, "total_shots": 1.2307, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.9106, "rating": 6.8866, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 25.8264, "accurate_pass": 16.8469, "duels_won": 8.5123, "total_long_balls": 3.3683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2833, "crosses_total": 3.4099, "crosses_accurate": 0.628, "touches": 54.6896, "possession_lost": 18.8509, "dispossessed": 1.2457, "duels_lost": 6.8147, "aerial_lost": 0.7172, "total_contest": 4.6766, "won_contest": 3.3848, "ball_recovery": 3.8132, "challenges_lost": 1.1897, "fouls": 1.8054, "fouls_drawn": 1.4577, "assist_rate": 0.196, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9069, "tackles_won": 1.8197, "tackles": 3.0303, "clearances": 1.1942, "blocks": 0.1511, "big_chances_created": 0.0746, "big_chances_missed": 0.1215, "xgot": 0.1164, "offsides": 0.2421, "ball_carries": 15.0313, "total_progression": 84.3649, "progressive_carries": 2.9326, "shots_off_target": 0.8852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.588, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1415, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.82, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7338, "squad_xa_sum": 0.3993, "team_expected_assists": 0.533, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1175, "xa_scale": 1.3349, "opponent_lambda": 1.976, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.588 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0949, "after": 0.0624 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0862, "after": 0.0677 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0624, "goal_rate": 0.1154, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3455, "total_shots": 1.2307, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.9106, "rating": 6.8866, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 25.8264, "accurate_pass": 16.8469, "duels_won": 8.5123, "total_long_balls": 3.3683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2833, "crosses_total": 3.4099, "crosses_accurate": 0.628, "touches": 54.6896, "possession_lost": 18.8509, "dispossessed": 1.2457, "duels_lost": 6.8147, "aerial_lost": 0.7172, "total_contest": 4.6766, "won_contest": 3.3848, "ball_recovery": 3.8132, "challenges_lost": 1.1897, "fouls": 1.8054, "fouls_drawn": 1.4577, "assist_rate": 0.196, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9069, "tackles_won": 1.8197, "tackles": 3.0303, "clearances": 1.1942, "blocks": 0.1511, "big_chances_created": 0.0746, "big_chances_missed": 0.1215, "xgot": 0.1164, "offsides": 0.2421, "ball_carries": 15.0313, "total_progression": 84.3649, "progressive_carries": 2.9326, "shots_off_target": 0.8852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.588, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1415, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3983, "fifa_rank": 3279.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", 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"aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0275 } ], "others": 0.0591, "total": 0.7815, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.893176 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.217671 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.045602 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.042675 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038765 } ], "others_margin": 0.07851 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1608300656080246, "model_output": 0.1608, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1687 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0702 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.045, "total": 0.1608, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.168672 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.070208 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01806 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009975 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.008422 } ], "others_margin": -0.045081 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.644750595092773, "model_output": 6.6448, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0417, "total": 6.6448, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.044789 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.023486 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016113 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016007 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011941 } ], "others_margin": -0.041694 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0112, quality 0.594)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3493, "tackles": 0.5265, "tackles_won": 0.2777, "clearances": 1.4625, "aerial_won": 0.7902, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 23.89, "total_pass": 7.7166, "accurate_pass": 6.6234, "duels_won": 0.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.2292, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1316, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.559, "possession_lost": 1.0932, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8568, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2697, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2697, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2697, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8275, "total_progression": 3.0686, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1626 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16399999, "quality_factor": 0.5942, "boost_factor": 1.0112, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0126)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3449, "tackles": 0.5265, "tackles_won": 0.2742, "clearances": 1.4625, "aerial_won": 0.7902, "total_shots": 0.1605, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 23.89, "total_pass": 7.7166, "accurate_pass": 6.6234, "duels_won": 0.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.2292, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1316, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.559, "possession_lost": 1.0932, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8568, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2697, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2663, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2697, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8275, "total_progression": 3.0686, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1626 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0126, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2654, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Hull City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3305, "tackles": 0.5045, "tackles_won": 0.2627, "clearances": 1.4013, "aerial_won": 0.7571, "total_shots": 0.1558, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1558, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 23.89, "minutes_scale": 0.9581, "appearance_probability": 0.615 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3305, "tackles": 0.5045, "tackles_won": 0.2627, "clearances": 1.4013, "aerial_won": 0.7571, "total_shots": 0.1558, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1558, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3305, "tackles": 0.5045, "tackles_won": 0.2627, "clearances": 1.4013, "aerial_won": 0.7571, "total_shots": 0.1558, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1558, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 0.7338, xG scale 1.1175, xA scale 1.3349, team xA 0.53 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3305, "tackles": 0.5045, "tackles_won": 0.2627, "clearances": 1.4013, "aerial_won": 0.7571, "total_shots": 0.1558, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1558, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9141 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.82, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7338, "squad_xa_sum": 0.3993, "team_expected_assists": 0.533, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1175, "xa_scale": 1.3349, "opponent_lambda": 1.976, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.615 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 66.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3305, "tackles": 0.5045, "tackles_won": 0.2627, "clearances": 1.4013, "aerial_won": 0.7571, "total_shots": 0.1558, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1558, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9141, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 7040, "fifa_rank": 10471.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 66.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3305, "tackles": 0.5045, "tackles_won": 0.2627, "clearances": 1.4013, "aerial_won": 0.7571, "total_shots": 0.1558, "rating": 6.6448, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0627, "goal_rate": 0.0898, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3625, "total_shots": 0.9611, "expected_assists": 0.019, "key_pass": 0.3788, "rating": 6.5807, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 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"decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0956 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0789 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0233 } ], "others": 0.0598, "total": 6.8866, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.095582 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078946 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.030541 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029622 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.023321 } ], "others_margin": 0.059776 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0104, quality 0.602)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0805, "goals": 0.0979, "goal_rate": 0.0979, "shots_on_target": 0.293, "total_shots": 1.0437, "expected_assists": 0.0731, "key_pass": 0.7722, "rating": 6.8866, "minutes": 22.0, "total_pass": 21.9016, "accurate_pass": 14.2867, "duels_won": 7.2187, "total_long_balls": 2.8564, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1025, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5381, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4166, "crosses_total": 2.8917, "crosses_accurate": 0.5326, "touches": 46.3786, "possession_lost": 15.9862, "dispossessed": 1.2457, "duels_lost": 5.7791, "aerial_lost": 0.7172, "total_contest": 3.9659, "won_contest": 2.8704, "ball_recovery": 3.2337, "challenges_lost": 1.1897, "fouls": 1.531, "fouls_drawn": 1.2362, "assists": 0.1662, "assist_rate": 0.1662, "interceptions": 0.7691, "tackles_won": 1.5432, "tackles": 2.5698, "clearances": 1.0127, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.0633, "big_chances_missed": 0.103, "xgot": 0.1502, "offsides": 0.2421, "ball_carries": 12.747, "total_progression": 71.5442, "progressive_carries": 2.4869, "shots_off_target": 0.7507 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17100000, "quality_factor": 0.6016, "boost_factor": 1.0104, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goals": 0.1154, "goal_rate": 0.1154, "shots_on_target": 0.3455, "total_shots": 1.2307, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "key_pass": 0.9106, "rating": 6.8866, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 25.8264, "accurate_pass": 16.8469, "duels_won": 8.5123, "total_long_balls": 3.3683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2833, "crosses_total": 3.4099, "crosses_accurate": 0.628, "touches": 54.6896, "possession_lost": 18.8509, "dispossessed": 1.2457, "duels_lost": 6.8147, "aerial_lost": 0.7172, "total_contest": 4.6766, "won_contest": 3.3848, "ball_recovery": 3.8132, "challenges_lost": 1.1897, "fouls": 1.8054, "fouls_drawn": 1.4577, "assists": 0.196, "assist_rate": 0.196, "interceptions": 0.9069, "tackles_won": 1.8197, "tackles": 3.0303, "clearances": 1.1942, "blocks": 0.1511, "big_chances_created": 0.0746, "big_chances_missed": 0.1215, "xgot": 0.1771, "offsides": 0.2421, "ball_carries": 15.0313, "total_progression": 84.3649, "progressive_carries": 2.9326, "shots_off_target": 0.8852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.588, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.94 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.94, "projection_minutes": 22.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1792, "appearance_probability": 0.588 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goals": 0.1154, "goal_rate": 0.1154, "shots_on_target": 0.3455, "total_shots": 1.2307, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "key_pass": 0.9106, "rating": 6.8866, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 25.8264, "accurate_pass": 16.8469, "duels_won": 8.5123, "total_long_balls": 3.3683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2833, "crosses_total": 3.4099, "crosses_accurate": 0.628, "touches": 54.6896, "possession_lost": 18.8509, "dispossessed": 1.2457, "duels_lost": 6.8147, "aerial_lost": 0.7172, "total_contest": 4.6766, "won_contest": 3.3848, "ball_recovery": 3.8132, "challenges_lost": 1.1897, "fouls": 1.8054, "fouls_drawn": 1.4577, "assists": 0.196, "assist_rate": 0.196, "interceptions": 0.9069, "tackles_won": 1.8197, "tackles": 3.0303, "clearances": 1.1942, "blocks": 0.1511, "big_chances_created": 0.0746, "big_chances_missed": 0.1215, "xgot": 0.1771, "offsides": 0.2421, "ball_carries": 15.0313, "total_progression": 84.3649, "progressive_carries": 2.9326, "shots_off_target": 0.8852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.588, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.94 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1154, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3455, "total_shots": 1.2307, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "key_pass": 0.9106, "rating": 6.8866, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 25.8264, "accurate_pass": 16.8469, "duels_won": 8.5123, "total_long_balls": 3.3683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2833, "crosses_total": 3.4099, "crosses_accurate": 0.628, "touches": 54.6896, "possession_lost": 18.8509, "dispossessed": 1.2457, "duels_lost": 6.8147, "aerial_lost": 0.7172, "total_contest": 4.6766, "won_contest": 3.3848, "ball_recovery": 3.8132, "challenges_lost": 1.1897, "fouls": 1.8054, "fouls_drawn": 1.4577, "assist_rate": 0.196, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9069, "tackles_won": 1.8197, "tackles": 3.0303, "clearances": 1.1942, "blocks": 0.1511, "big_chances_created": 0.0746, "big_chances_missed": 0.1215, "xgot": 0.1771, "offsides": 0.2421, "ball_carries": 15.0313, "total_progression": 84.3649, "progressive_carries": 2.9326, "shots_off_target": 0.8852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.588, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 0.7338, xG scale 1.1175, xA scale 1.3349, team xA 0.53 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0624, "goal_rate": 0.1154, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3455, "total_shots": 1.2307, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.9106, "rating": 6.8866, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 25.8264, "accurate_pass": 16.8469, "duels_won": 8.5123, "total_long_balls": 3.3683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2833, "crosses_total": 3.4099, "crosses_accurate": 0.628, "touches": 54.6896, "possession_lost": 18.8509, "dispossessed": 1.2457, "duels_lost": 6.8147, "aerial_lost": 0.7172, "total_contest": 4.6766, "won_contest": 3.3848, "ball_recovery": 3.8132, "challenges_lost": 1.1897, "fouls": 1.8054, "fouls_drawn": 1.4577, "assist_rate": 0.196, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9069, "tackles_won": 1.8197, "tackles": 3.0303, "clearances": 1.1942, "blocks": 0.1511, "big_chances_created": 0.0746, "big_chances_missed": 0.1215, "xgot": 0.1164, "offsides": 0.2421, "ball_carries": 15.0313, "total_progression": 84.3649, "progressive_carries": 2.9326, "shots_off_target": 0.8852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.588, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1415, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.82, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7338, "squad_xa_sum": 0.3993, "team_expected_assists": 0.533, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1175, "xa_scale": 1.3349, "opponent_lambda": 1.976, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.588 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0949, "after": 0.0624 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0862, "after": 0.0677 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0624, "goal_rate": 0.1154, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3455, "total_shots": 1.2307, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.9106, "rating": 6.8866, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 25.8264, "accurate_pass": 16.8469, "duels_won": 8.5123, "total_long_balls": 3.3683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2833, "crosses_total": 3.4099, "crosses_accurate": 0.628, "touches": 54.6896, "possession_lost": 18.8509, "dispossessed": 1.2457, "duels_lost": 6.8147, "aerial_lost": 0.7172, "total_contest": 4.6766, "won_contest": 3.3848, "ball_recovery": 3.8132, "challenges_lost": 1.1897, "fouls": 1.8054, "fouls_drawn": 1.4577, "assist_rate": 0.196, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9069, "tackles_won": 1.8197, "tackles": 3.0303, "clearances": 1.1942, "blocks": 0.1511, "big_chances_created": 0.0746, "big_chances_missed": 0.1215, "xgot": 0.1164, "offsides": 0.2421, "ball_carries": 15.0313, "total_progression": 84.3649, "progressive_carries": 2.9326, "shots_off_target": 0.8852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.588, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1415, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3983, "fifa_rank": 3279.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0624, "goal_rate": 0.1154, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3455, "total_shots": 1.2307, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.9106, "rating": 6.8866, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 25.8264, "accurate_pass": 16.8469, "duels_won": 8.5123, "total_long_balls": 3.3683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2833, "crosses_total": 3.4099, "crosses_accurate": 0.628, "touches": 54.6896, "possession_lost": 18.8509, "dispossessed": 1.2457, "duels_lost": 6.8147, "aerial_lost": 0.7172, "total_contest": 4.6766, "won_contest": 3.3848, "ball_recovery": 3.8132, "challenges_lost": 1.1897, "fouls": 1.8054, "fouls_drawn": 1.4577, "assist_rate": 0.196, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9069, "tackles_won": 1.8197, "tackles": 3.0303, "clearances": 1.1942, "blocks": 0.1511, "big_chances_created": 0.0746, "big_chances_missed": 0.1215, "xgot": 0.1164, "offsides": 0.2421, "ball_carries": 15.0313, "total_progression": 84.3649, "progressive_carries": 2.9326, "shots_off_target": 0.8852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.588, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0592, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1415, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.1154, "scorer_weight": 0.0712, "squad_weight_total": 0.8559, "weight_share": 0.0832, "finishing_factor": 1.1415, "appearance_weight": 0.588, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0624, "goal_rate": 0.1154, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3455, "total_shots": 1.2307, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.9106, "rating": 6.8866, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 25.8264, "accurate_pass": 16.8469, "duels_won": 8.5123, "total_long_balls": 3.3683, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2833, "crosses_total": 3.4099, "crosses_accurate": 0.628, "touches": 54.6896, "possession_lost": 18.8509, "dispossessed": 1.2457, "duels_lost": 6.8147, "aerial_lost": 0.7172, "total_contest": 4.6766, "won_contest": 3.3848, "ball_recovery": 3.8132, "challenges_lost": 1.1897, "fouls": 1.8054, "fouls_drawn": 1.4577, "assist_rate": 0.196, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9069, "tackles_won": 1.8197, "tackles": 3.0303, "clearances": 1.1942, "blocks": 0.1511, "big_chances_created": 0.0746, "big_chances_missed": 0.1215, "xgot": 0.1164, "offsides": 0.2421, "ball_carries": 15.0313, "total_progression": 84.3649, "progressive_carries": 2.9326, "shots_off_target": 0.8852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.588, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0592, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0639, "finishing_factor": 1.1415, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0639, "assist_rate": 0.196, "provider_weight": 0.0846, "squad_weight_total": 0.6106, "weight_share": 0.1386, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.588, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Christos Mouzakitis": { "player_id": 1416540, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 36, "height": 178, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.4043, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0163, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.03, "finishing_factor": 0.9023, "creation_factor": 0.9432, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4143, "combined_rank_score": 2149.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 745.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 3554.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Christos Mouzakitis", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás Valentini", "ranking": 4138 }, { "player_name": "Borna Sosa", "ranking": 4139 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Broadhead", "ranking": 4140 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Cardoso", "ranking": 4141 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Sánchez", "ranking": 4142 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sammie Szmodics", "ranking": 4144 }, { "player_name": "Mathias Honsak", "ranking": 4145 }, { "player_name": "Dan Neil", "ranking": 4146 }, { "player_name": "Juan Cruz", "ranking": 4147 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Petkov", "ranking": 4148 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.77746860076133, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5353394818527877, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6408, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€21,000,000) scaled to 22.8 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.64)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.1, "assists": 0.15, "assist_rate": 0.15, "expected_assists": 0.171, "expected_goals": 0.11, "total_shots": 1.7, "total_pass": 58.0, "accurate_pass": 47.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0, "duels_won": 7.0, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90.0, "total_long_balls": 5.0, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0, "crosses_total": 1.7, "crosses_accurate": 0.8, "touches": 72.0, "possession_lost": 9.5, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 4.7, "aerial_won": 1.5, "aerial_lost": 1.1, "interceptions": 1.3, "tackles_won": 1.7, "tackles": 2.2, "clearances": 0.9, "total_contest": 4.6, "won_contest": 2.6, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "goals": 0.08, "goal_rate": 0.08, "shots_on_target": 0.7, "shots_off_target": 0.6, "blocks": 0.4, "big_chances_created": 0.13, "big_chances_missed": 0.07, "xgot": 0.074, "ball_carries": 34.0, "total_progression": 91.0, "progressive_carries": 8.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5315, "assists": 0.038, "assist_rate": 0.038, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "expected_goals": 0.0278, "total_shots": 0.4302, "total_pass": 14.6788, "accurate_pass": 11.8949, "ball_recovery": 1.5185, "duels_won": 1.7716, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.78, "total_long_balls": 1.2654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7592, "total_own_half_passes": 6.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8209, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3024, "crosses_total": 0.4302, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 18.222, "possession_lost": 2.4043, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.1895, "aerial_won": 0.3796, "aerial_lost": 1.1, "interceptions": 0.329, "tackles_won": 0.4302, "tackles": 0.5568, "clearances": 0.2278, "total_contest": 1.1642, "won_contest": 0.658, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4555, "fouls_drawn": 0.329, "goals": 0.0202, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.1772, "shots_off_target": 0.1518, "blocks": 0.1012, "big_chances_created": 0.0329, "big_chances_missed": 0.0177, "xgot": 0.0187, "ball_carries": 8.6048, "total_progression": 23.0306, "progressive_carries": 2.0247, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.2531, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5315, "assists": 0.038, "assist_rate": 0.038, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "expected_goals": 0.0278, "total_shots": 0.4302, "total_pass": 14.6788, "accurate_pass": 11.8949, "ball_recovery": 1.5185, "duels_won": 1.7716, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.78, "total_long_balls": 1.2654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7592, "total_own_half_passes": 6.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8209, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3024, "crosses_total": 0.4302, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 18.222, "possession_lost": 2.4043, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.1895, "aerial_won": 0.3796, "aerial_lost": 1.1, "interceptions": 0.329, "tackles_won": 0.4302, "tackles": 0.5568, "clearances": 0.2278, "total_contest": 1.1642, "won_contest": 0.658, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4555, "fouls_drawn": 0.329, "goals": 0.0202, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.1772, "shots_off_target": 0.1518, "blocks": 0.1012, "big_chances_created": 0.0329, "big_chances_missed": 0.0177, "xgot": 0.0187, "ball_carries": 8.6048, "total_progression": 23.0306, "progressive_carries": 2.0247, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5315, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "expected_goals": 0.0278, "total_shots": 0.4302, "total_pass": 14.6788, "accurate_pass": 11.8949, "ball_recovery": 1.5185, "duels_won": 1.7716, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.78, "total_long_balls": 1.2654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7592, "total_own_half_passes": 6.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8209, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3024, "crosses_total": 0.4302, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 18.222, "possession_lost": 2.4043, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.1895, "aerial_won": 0.3796, "aerial_lost": 1.1, "interceptions": 0.329, "tackles_won": 0.4302, "tackles": 0.5568, "clearances": 0.2278, "total_contest": 1.1642, "won_contest": 0.658, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4555, "fouls_drawn": 0.329, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1772, "shots_off_target": 0.1518, "blocks": 0.1012, "big_chances_created": 0.0329, "big_chances_missed": 0.0177, "xgot": 0.0187, "ball_carries": 8.6048, "total_progression": 23.0306, "progressive_carries": 2.0247, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.82 (squad xG sum 0.7338, xG scale 1.1175, xA scale 1.3349, team xA 0.53 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5315, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "total_shots": 0.4302, "total_pass": 14.6788, "accurate_pass": 11.8949, "ball_recovery": 1.5185, "duels_won": 1.7716, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.78, "total_long_balls": 1.2654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7592, "total_own_half_passes": 6.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8209, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3024, "crosses_total": 0.4302, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 18.222, "possession_lost": 2.4043, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.1895, "aerial_won": 0.3796, "aerial_lost": 1.1, "interceptions": 0.329, "tackles_won": 0.4302, "tackles": 0.5568, "clearances": 0.2278, "total_contest": 1.1642, "won_contest": 0.658, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4555, "fouls_drawn": 0.329, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1772, "shots_off_target": 0.1518, "blocks": 0.1012, "big_chances_created": 0.0329, "big_chances_missed": 0.0177, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 8.6048, "total_progression": 23.0306, "progressive_carries": 2.0247, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9023, "creation_factor": 0.9432 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.82, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7338, "squad_xa_sum": 0.3993, "team_expected_assists": 0.533, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1175, "xa_scale": 1.3349, "opponent_lambda": 1.976, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.535 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0278, "after": 0.0166 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0433, "after": 0.0309 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5315, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "total_shots": 0.4302, "total_pass": 14.6788, "accurate_pass": 11.8949, "ball_recovery": 1.5185, "duels_won": 1.7716, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.78, "total_long_balls": 1.2654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7592, "total_own_half_passes": 6.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8209, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3024, "crosses_total": 0.4302, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 18.222, "possession_lost": 2.4043, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.1895, "aerial_won": 0.3796, "aerial_lost": 1.1, "interceptions": 0.329, "tackles_won": 0.4302, "tackles": 0.5568, "clearances": 0.2278, "total_contest": 1.1642, "won_contest": 0.658, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4555, "fouls_drawn": 0.329, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1772, "shots_off_target": 0.1518, "blocks": 0.1012, "big_chances_created": 0.0329, "big_chances_missed": 0.0177, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 8.6048, "total_progression": 23.0306, "progressive_carries": 2.0247, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9023, "creation_factor": 0.9432, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4143, "fifa_rank": 3554.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5315, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "total_shots": 0.4302, "total_pass": 14.6788, "accurate_pass": 11.8949, "ball_recovery": 1.5185, "duels_won": 1.7716, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.78, "total_long_balls": 1.2654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7592, "total_own_half_passes": 6.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8209, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3024, "crosses_total": 0.4302, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 18.222, "possession_lost": 2.4043, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.1895, "aerial_won": 0.3796, "aerial_lost": 1.1, "interceptions": 0.329, "tackles_won": 0.4302, "tackles": 0.5568, "clearances": 0.2278, "total_contest": 1.1642, "won_contest": 0.658, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4555, "fouls_drawn": 0.329, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1772, "shots_off_target": 0.1518, "blocks": 0.1012, "big_chances_created": 0.0329, "big_chances_missed": 0.0177, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 8.6048, "total_progression": 23.0306, "progressive_carries": 2.0247, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0163, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9023, "creation_factor": 0.9432, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "scorer_weight": 0.015, "squad_weight_total": 0.8559, "weight_share": 0.0175, "finishing_factor": 0.9023, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5315, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "expected_goals": 0.0166, "total_shots": 0.4302, "total_pass": 14.6788, "accurate_pass": 11.8949, "ball_recovery": 1.5185, "duels_won": 1.7716, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.78, "total_long_balls": 1.2654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7592, "total_own_half_passes": 6.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8209, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3024, "crosses_total": 0.4302, "crosses_accurate": 0.2025, "touches": 18.222, "possession_lost": 2.4043, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.1895, "aerial_won": 0.3796, "aerial_lost": 1.1, "interceptions": 0.329, "tackles_won": 0.4302, "tackles": 0.5568, "clearances": 0.2278, "total_contest": 1.1642, "won_contest": 0.658, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4555, "fouls_drawn": 0.329, "goal_rate": 0.0202, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1772, "shots_off_target": 0.1518, "blocks": 0.1012, "big_chances_created": 0.0329, "big_chances_missed": 0.0177, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 8.6048, "total_progression": 23.0306, "progressive_carries": 2.0247, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.854, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0163, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.03, "finishing_factor": 0.9023, "creation_factor": 0.9432, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.03, "assist_rate": 0.038, "provider_weight": 0.0291, "squad_weight_total": 0.6106, "weight_share": 0.0477, "creation_factor": 0.9432, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.82, "expected_assists": 0.53, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 317, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 22, "avg_rating": 6.74, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Declan Rice", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 114000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "John Egan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.639, "xg_contribution": 0.0834, "xg_multiplier": 1.3214, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "John Egan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.361 } ], "duel_analysis": "Declan Rice (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against John Egan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 64%. The quality gap is significant (€114M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.32 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.083 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Eberechi Eze", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Matt Crooks" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.552, "xg_contribution": 0.1364, "xg_multiplier": 1.1946, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matt Crooks", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.448 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eberechi Eze (CAM) is slightly favored against Matt Crooks in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.19 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.136 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Martin Ødegaard", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 88000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.888, "defenders": [ "John Egan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.595, "xg_contribution": 0.2619, "xg_multiplier": 1.2568, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "John Egan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.405 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martin Ødegaard (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against John Egan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€88M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.26 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.262 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Bukayo Saka", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "John Egan", "Semi Ajayi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.363, "xg_contribution": 0.3839, "xg_multiplier": 1.2392, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "John Egan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637 }, { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bukayo Saka (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against John Egan and Semi Ajayi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.24 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.384 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Oliver McBurnie", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7600000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.494, "defenders": [ "William Saliba", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.881, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2232, "xg_multiplier": 0.7145, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "William Saliba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Gabriel Magalhães", "role": "CB", "market_value": 70000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oliver McBurnie (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €82M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.71 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.223 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Regan Slater", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 9200000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.513, "defenders": [ "Myles Lewis-Skelly" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.869, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "xg_contribution": 0.0521, "xg_multiplier": 0.7273, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Myles Lewis-Skelly", "role": "RB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 } ], "duel_analysis": "Regan Slater (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Myles Lewis-Skelly in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €69M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.73 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Elliot Stroud", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Ben White" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.324, "xg_contribution": 0.042, "xg_multiplier": 0.8002, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ben White", "role": "LB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.676 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elliot Stroud (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ben White in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €32M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.80 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Lewie Coyle", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Myles Lewis-Skelly" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW", "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.021, "xg_multiplier": 0.678, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "role": "RW", "market_value": 88000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Myles Lewis-Skelly", "role": "RB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewie Coyle (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Martin Ødegaard and Myles Lewis-Skelly in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €78M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.68 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.021 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Giles", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Declan Rice", "Ben White" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.814, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0011, "xg_multiplier": 0.8113, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Declan Rice", "role": "LW", "market_value": 114000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ben White", "role": "LB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Giles (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Declan Rice and Ben White in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€14M vs €73M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.001 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Matt Crooks", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "xg_contribution": 0.0315, "xg_multiplier": 0.7657, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.709 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matt Crooks (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Bruno Guimarães in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.031 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Tim Iroegbunam", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 15500000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.585, "defenders": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "xg_contribution": 0.0747, "xg_multiplier": 0.8105, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tim Iroegbunam (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Bruno Guimarães in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.892, "away_midfield_power": 0.535, "home_creative_power": 0.823, "away_creative_power": 0.412, "home_defensive_power": 0.687, "away_defensive_power": 0.477, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.625, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Declan Rice", "Martin Ødegaard", "Eberechi Eze", "Bruno Guimarães", "Mikel Merino" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Regan Slater", "Elliot Stroud", "Matt Crooks", "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "home_throughball_threat": 3.1, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Declan Rice vs Tim Iroegbunam", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.046, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.955 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.976, "away_lambda": 0.82, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "RW vs CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Declan Rice": { "opponents": [ "John Egan", "Ryan Giles", "Elliot Stroud" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Eberechi Eze": { "opponents": [ "Matt Crooks" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martin Ødegaard": { "opponents": [ "John Egan", "Lewie Coyle", "Matt Crooks" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bukayo Saka": { "opponents": [ "John Egan", "Semi Ajayi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "William Saliba": { "opponents": [ "Oliver McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Magalhães": { "opponents": [ "Oliver McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Myles Lewis-Skelly": { "opponents": [ "Regan Slater", "Lewie Coyle" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ben White": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Stroud", "Ryan Giles" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bruno Guimarães": { "opponents": [ "Matt Crooks", "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mikel Merino": { "opponents": [ "Regan Slater" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "David Raya": { "opponents": [ "Oliver McBurnie", "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "John Egan": { "opponents": [ "Declan Rice", "Martin Ødegaard", "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matt Crooks": { "opponents": [ "Eberechi Eze", "Bruno Guimarães", "Martin Ødegaard" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Semi Ajayi": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Oliver McBurnie": { "opponents": [ "William Saliba", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Regan Slater": { "opponents": [ "Myles Lewis-Skelly", "Mikel Merino" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Elliot Stroud": { "opponents": [ "Ben White", "Declan Rice" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lewie Coyle": { "opponents": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Myles Lewis-Skelly" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ryan Giles": { "opponents": [ "Declan Rice", "Ben White" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tim Iroegbunam": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Konstantinos Tzolakis": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka", "Eberechi Eze" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Nobel Mendy": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Declan Rice vs Tim Iroegbunam). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 0.45. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8871, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.113, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9774, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8664, "home_midfield_factor": 1.046, "away_midfield_factor": 0.955, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8468, "away_avg_quality": 0.5059, "avg_quality_gap": 0.3409, "squad_value_gap_log": 2.1053, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.8462, "attack_value_gap_log": 2.2551, "elite_count_gap": 8, "combined_quality_gap": 0.6962, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3829, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2228, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8656, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.0585 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.046, "result": 1.1071 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 1.0961 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.424 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9848, "result": 1.4024 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 1.3004 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9774, "result": 1.271 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.451 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.451, "result": 1.451, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.6962, "factor": 1.3829, "pre": 1.451, "result": 2.0066 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.0066 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.189, "result": 2.196 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.069, "result": 2.1716 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.1716, "result": 2.172, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.05, "pre": 2.172, "result": 2.2806, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1791, "pre": 2.2806, "result": 2.689 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 2.689 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9043, "input_total": 3.29, "result": 2.4318 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 2.4318, "result": 2.432, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.976 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.4456, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.6967 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.955, "result": 0.6653 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.01, "result": 0.672 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.672 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8673, "result": 0.5828 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8871, "result": 0.517 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8664, "result": 0.4479 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.113, "result": 0.5609 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.5609, "result": 0.6, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": true }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.6962, "factor": 0.7772, "pre": 0.6, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1722, "result": 0.8222 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.069, "result": 1.0616 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.0616, "result": 1.062, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.95, "pre": 1.062, "result": 1.0089, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9404, "pre": 1.0089, "result": 0.949 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 0.949 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9043, "input_total": 3.29, "result": 0.8582 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 0.8582, "result": 0.858, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 0.82 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.189, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1722, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Arsenal", "away_squad": "Hull City", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.6962, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1791, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9404, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.2806, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.0089, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.1716, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0616, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.976, "final_away_lambda": 0.82 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9848, "attack_index": 1.075, "defense_concede_index": 0.877, "form_multiplier": 1.04, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.47, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.2, "team_ppg": 2.08, "opponent_ppg": 1.28 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8673, "attack_index": 0.911, "defense_concede_index": 0.783, "form_multiplier": 0.96, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.07, "team_ppg": 1.28, "opponent_ppg": 2.08 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Arsenal vs Hull. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 5-4-1 (duel lambdas: Home 2.172, Away 1.062). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.976, Away 0.820 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Arsenal", "away_squad": "Hull City", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.976, "away_lambda": 0.82, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 2.172, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.062 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:32:29Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }