{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Forest", "away_team": "Man City", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261107", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1026, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0612, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1026, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Man City", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2343, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1109 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1026 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0981 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0919 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0612 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0587, "0-1": 0.1026, "0-2": 0.0919, "0-3": 0.0545, "0-4": 0.0243, "0-5": 0.0086, "0-6": 0.0026, "0-7": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.0612, "1-1": 0.1109, "1-2": 0.0981, "1-3": 0.0582, "1-4": 0.0259, "1-5": 0.0092, "1-6": 0.0027, "1-7": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.033, "2-1": 0.0588, "2-2": 0.0523, "2-3": 0.031, "2-4": 0.0138, "2-5": 0.0049, "2-6": 0.0015, "3-0": 0.0117, "3-1": 0.0209, "3-2": 0.0186, "3-3": 0.011, "3-4": 0.0049, "3-5": 0.0017, "3-6": 0.0005, "4-0": 0.0031, "4-1": 0.0056, "4-2": 0.005, "4-3": 0.0029, "4-4": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0007, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0011, "5-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2256, "draw": 0.2343, "away_win": 0.5401 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5417, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4583, "btts_yes": 0.546, "btts_no": 0.454, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1686, "away_clean_sheet": 0.344 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.84, "MCR": 6.96, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.0, "MCR": 7.11, "ATR": 7.17, "GK": 7.0 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Forest vs Man City. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 4 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Forest 2W-2D-6L vs Man City over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Erling Haaland", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Morgan Gibbs-White vs Rayan Cherki). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.19, Away: 1.13. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.067, "away_lambda": 1.78, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 6, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 0.9714, "away_multiplier": 1.0286 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1109, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2256, "draw": 0.2343, "away_win": 0.5401 }, "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5401, "fair_spread": -0.713, "fair_total": 2.847, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.067, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 1.78, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5417, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.546, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1686, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.344, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Liam Delap (Forest)", "estimate": 0.1855, "probability": 0.1693, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Erling Haaland (Man City)", "estimate": 0.7535, "probability": 0.5293, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Morgan Gibbs-White (Forest)", "estimate": 0.1288, "probability": 0.1209, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Rayan Cherki (Man City)", "estimate": 0.2391, "probability": 0.2127, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.847, "expected_total_shots": 33, "expected_total_passes": 1058, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.8, "possession_home_pct": 48.5, "possession_away_pct": 51.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5401, "script": "Man City is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.71 goals and fair total 2.85.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Forest must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man City lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man City chance creation leans on Erling Haaland against Murillo, Neco Williams in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Forest: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Ousmane Diomande, Callum Hudson Odoi, Arnaud Kalimuendo.", "Man City: starters carry the main goal usage through Erling Haaland; bench watchlist: Jérémy Doku, Mateo Kovačić.", "Assist usage should flow through Rayan Cherki; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man City tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.42 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Forest is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man City.", "Forest wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Forest": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Matz Sels": { "player_id": 78152, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 188, "market_value": 3700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0584, "rating": 6.9892, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 15, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 36, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.5343, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 12.7264, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.0832, "shots_faced": 16.9, "expected_saves": 4.13, "high_pressure_saves": 1.42, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363903.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": -1.3352 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363897.0, "match_date": "2026-10-23", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.043 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363889.0, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "goals_prevented": -0.8098 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363875.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.312 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 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"premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1266, "combined_rank_score": 550.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 604.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7806, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 497.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9892, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matz Sels", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Valdés", "ranking": 1261 }, { "player_name": "Noh Dong-geon", "ranking": 1262 }, { "player_name": "Denilson", "ranking": 1263 }, { "player_name": "Séamus Coleman", "ranking": 1264 }, { "player_name": "Castello Lukeba", "ranking": 1265 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nathan Aké", "ranking": 1267 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Raskin", "ranking": 1268 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Jackson", "ranking": 1269 }, { "player_name": "Joël Veltman", "ranking": 1270 }, { "player_name": "Giorgi Papava", "ranking": 1271 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.998, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Nottingham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 40 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Nottingham, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8499, "goals_prevented": -0.0585, "rating": 6.9892, "minutes": 89.75, "total_pass": 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0541 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0203 } ], "others": 0.106, "total": 1.2889, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.497717 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.107487 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054142 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.02211 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.020332 } ], "others_margin": 0.105837 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.941639423370361, "model_output": 6.9416, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0333 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": 0.011, "total": 6.9416, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.039049 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.038933 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.033304 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.011789 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.008808 } ], "others_margin": 0.010976 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0121, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.333, "tackles": 1.995, "tackles_won": 1.1854, "clearances": 4.7812, "aerial_won": 1.2564, "total_shots": 1.3045, "rating": 6.9416, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 54.2799, "accurate_pass": 44.4964, "duels_won": 4.3968, "total_long_balls": 8.4802, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3924, "total_own_half_passes": 31.2397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.0057, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0402, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4906, "crosses_total": 0.0182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.5215, "possession_lost": 11.2025, "dispossessed": 0.2762, "duels_lost": 3.8489, "aerial_lost": 1.1308, "total_contest": 0.9192, "won_contest": 0.3957, "ball_recovery": 5.5349, "challenges_lost": 0.876, "fouls": 1.14, "fouls_drawn": 0.1555, "blocks": 0.5256, "goals": 0.0028, 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28.0057, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0402, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4906, "crosses_total": 0.018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.5215, "possession_lost": 11.2025, "dispossessed": 0.2762, "duels_lost": 3.8489, "aerial_lost": 1.1308, "total_contest": 0.9192, "won_contest": 0.3957, "ball_recovery": 5.5349, "challenges_lost": 0.876, "fouls": 1.1328, "fouls_drawn": 0.1592, "blocks": 0.5256, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0668, "assist_rate": 0.0668, "expected_goals": 0.1121, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "shots_on_target": 0.4378, "big_chances_created": 0.0027, "xgot": 0.0543, "ball_carries": 16.2219, "total_progression": 67.7263, "progressive_carries": 1.0981, "key_pass": 0.6028, "shots_off_target": 0.8618, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.589, "opponent_faced": "Enzo Fernández", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs 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"description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.5371, xG scale 0.6942, xA scale 0.7186, team xA 0.69 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3236, "tackles": 1.995, "tackles_won": 1.1777, "clearances": 4.7812, "aerial_won": 1.2564, "total_shots": 1.2996, "rating": 6.9416, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 54.2799, "accurate_pass": 44.4964, "duels_won": 4.3968, "total_long_balls": 8.4802, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3924, "total_own_half_passes": 31.2397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.0057, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0402, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4906, "crosses_total": 0.018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.5215, "possession_lost": 11.2025, "dispossessed": 0.2762, "duels_lost": 3.8489, "aerial_lost": 1.1308, "total_contest": 0.9192, "won_contest": 0.3957, "ball_recovery": 5.5349, "challenges_lost": 0.876, "fouls": 1.1328, "fouls_drawn": 0.1592, "blocks": 0.5256, 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0.7186, "opponent_lambda": 1.78, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1121, "after": 0.0778 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0474, "after": 0.0341 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"model_output": 1.1532, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4484 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0566 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0528 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.024 } ], "others": 0.0613, "total": 1.1532, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.448376 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056618 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.052776 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.028896 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.023986 } ], 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0626 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0168, "total": 0.5735, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062644 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.025536 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.017699 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.012366 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009064 } ], "others_margin": -0.016925 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7522993087768555, "model_output": 6.7523, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0084 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 6.7523, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.02058 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012769 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011438 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.008389 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008055 } ], "others_margin": -0.002029 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0046, quality 0.594)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1149, "tackles": 2.1784, "tackles_won": 1.4219, "clearances": 2.6369, "aerial_won": 1.0025, "total_shots": 0.5761, "rating": 6.7523, "minutes": 78.5, "total_pass": 32.6401, "accurate_pass": 25.7391, "duels_won": 5.5069, "total_long_balls": 3.6517, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4343, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7444, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6851, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8957, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.054, "crosses_total": 1.7844, "crosses_accurate": 0.2681, "touches": 55.4408, "possession_lost": 14.0483, "dispossessed": 0.9094, "duels_lost": 3.7207, "aerial_lost": 0.6914, "total_contest": 1.5426, "won_contest": 0.815, "ball_recovery": 4.1616, "challenges_lost": 0.6765, "fouls": 0.7515, "fouls_drawn": 1.1201, "blocks": 0.0482, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0141, "expected_assists": 0.0586, "shots_on_target": 0.0742, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0077, "ball_carries": 10.8115, "total_progression": 24.9737, "progressive_carries": 0.714, "key_pass": 0.6236, "shots_off_target": 0.5019 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16399999, "quality_factor": 0.5942, "boost_factor": 1.0046, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0134)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1064, "tackles": 2.1784, "tackles_won": 1.4093, "clearances": 2.6369, "aerial_won": 1.0025, "total_shots": 0.5817, "rating": 6.7523, "minutes": 78.5, "total_pass": 32.6401, "accurate_pass": 25.7391, "duels_won": 5.5069, "total_long_balls": 3.6517, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4343, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7444, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6851, 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"contribution": 0.084 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0464, "total": 7.0363, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.083982 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03193 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.018669 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013254 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011237 } ], "others_margin": 0.04636 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.629)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4265, "expected_assists": 0.161, "assists": 0.092, "assist_rate": 0.092, "expected_goals": 0.0789, "goals": 0.1027, "goal_rate": 0.1027, "shots_on_target": 0.3185, "total_shots": 1.31, "rating": 7.0363, "minutes": 86.12, "total_pass": 47.9623, "accurate_pass": 37.9415, "duels_won": 4.9256, "total_long_balls": 6.121, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6724, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6413, "crosses_total": 3.1018, "crosses_accurate": 0.8049, "touches": 67.5393, "possession_lost": 16.2119, "dispossessed": 1.0978, "duels_lost": 4.4018, "aerial_won": 0.3329, "aerial_lost": 0.6354, "interceptions": 1.0154, "tackles_won": 1.4361, "tackles": 2.2487, "clearances": 1.4497, "total_contest": 0.9422, "won_contest": 0.6791, "challenges_lost": 1.3884, "fouls": 1.0172, "fouls_drawn": 1.6649, "blocks": 0.042, "big_chances_created": 0.1331, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0317, "ball_carries": 17.3649, "total_progression": 79.487, "progressive_carries": 1.6777, "shots_off_target": 0.9915 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19800000, "quality_factor": 0.6291, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0139)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4265, "expected_assists": 0.161, "assists": 0.0907, "assist_rate": 0.0907, "expected_goals": 0.0789, "goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1013, "shots_on_target": 0.3141, "total_shots": 1.2918, "rating": 7.0363, "minutes": 86.12, "total_pass": 47.9623, "accurate_pass": 37.9415, "duels_won": 4.9256, "total_long_balls": 6.121, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6724, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6413, "crosses_total": 3.1104, "crosses_accurate": 0.8049, "touches": 67.5393, "possession_lost": 16.2119, "dispossessed": 1.0978, "duels_lost": 4.4018, "aerial_won": 0.3329, "aerial_lost": 0.6354, "interceptions": 1.0013, "tackles_won": 1.4309, "tackles": 2.2487, "clearances": 1.4497, "total_contest": 0.9422, "won_contest": 0.6791, "challenges_lost": 1.3884, "fouls": 1.003, "fouls_drawn": 1.6713, "blocks": 0.042, "big_chances_created": 0.1331, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0317, "ball_carries": 17.3649, "total_progression": 79.487, "progressive_carries": 1.6777, "shots_off_target": 0.9915 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0139, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9569, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.31, "after": 1.2918 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0172, "after": 1.003 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0154, "after": 1.0013 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.1018, "after": 3.1104 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.6649, "after": 1.6713 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.4361, "after": 1.4309 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4265, "expected_assists": 0.161, "assists": 0.0907, "assist_rate": 0.0907, "expected_goals": 0.0789, "goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1013, "shots_on_target": 0.3141, "total_shots": 1.3056, "rating": 7.0363, "minutes": 86.12, "total_pass": 47.9623, "accurate_pass": 37.9415, "duels_won": 4.9256, "total_long_balls": 6.121, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6724, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6413, "crosses_total": 3.1104, "crosses_accurate": 0.8049, "touches": 67.5393, "possession_lost": 16.2119, "dispossessed": 1.0978, "duels_lost": 4.4018, "aerial_won": 0.3329, "aerial_lost": 0.6354, "interceptions": 1.0013, "tackles_won": 1.4309, "tackles": 2.2487, "clearances": 1.4497, "total_contest": 0.9422, "won_contest": 0.6791, "challenges_lost": 1.3884, "fouls": 1.003, "fouls_drawn": 1.6713, "blocks": 0.042, "big_chances_created": 0.1331, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0317, "ball_carries": 17.3649, "total_progression": 79.487, "progressive_carries": 1.6777, "shots_off_target": 0.9915 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4265, "expected_assists": 0.161, "assists": 0.0907, "assist_rate": 0.0907, "expected_goals": 0.0677, "goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "shots_on_target": 0.2694, "total_shots": 1.1197, "rating": 7.0363, "minutes": 86.12, "total_pass": 47.9623, "accurate_pass": 37.9415, "duels_won": 4.9256, "total_long_balls": 6.121, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6724, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6413, "crosses_total": 3.1104, "crosses_accurate": 0.8049, "touches": 67.5393, "possession_lost": 16.2119, "dispossessed": 1.0978, "duels_lost": 4.4018, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6354, "interceptions": 1.0013, "tackles_won": 1.4309, "tackles": 2.2487, "clearances": 1.4497, "total_contest": 0.9422, "won_contest": 0.6791, "challenges_lost": 1.3884, "fouls": 1.003, "fouls_drawn": 1.6713, "blocks": 0.042, "big_chances_created": 0.1331, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0272, "ball_carries": 17.3649, "total_progression": 79.487, "progressive_carries": 1.6777, "shots_off_target": 0.8503, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8576, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "opponent_faced": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8576, "skill_edge": -0.0729, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.7044, "defender_skill": 0.8663, "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "market_value": 47000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.8663 } ], "xg_override": 0.0677 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3329, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6413, "crosses_total": 3.1104, "crosses_accurate": 0.8049, "touches": 67.5393, "possession_lost": 16.2119, "dispossessed": 1.0978, "duels_lost": 4.4018, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6354, "interceptions": 1.0013, "tackles_won": 1.4309, "tackles": 2.2487, "clearances": 1.4497, "total_contest": 0.9422, "won_contest": 0.6791, "challenges_lost": 1.3884, "fouls": 1.003, "fouls_drawn": 1.6713, "blocks": 0.042, "big_chances_created": 0.1331, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0272, "ball_carries": 17.3649, "total_progression": 79.487, "progressive_carries": 1.6777, "shots_off_target": 0.8503, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8576, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "opponent_faced": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.5371, xG scale 0.6942, xA scale 0.7186, team xA 0.69 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4265, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "assist_rate": 0.0907, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2694, "total_shots": 1.1197, "rating": 7.0363, "minutes": 86.12, "total_pass": 47.9623, "accurate_pass": 37.9415, "duels_won": 4.9256, "total_long_balls": 6.121, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6724, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6413, "crosses_total": 3.1104, "crosses_accurate": 0.8049, "touches": 67.5393, "possession_lost": 16.2119, "dispossessed": 1.0978, "duels_lost": 4.4018, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6354, "interceptions": 1.0013, "tackles_won": 1.4309, "tackles": 2.2487, "clearances": 1.4497, "total_contest": 0.9422, "won_contest": 0.6791, "challenges_lost": 1.3884, "fouls": 1.003, "fouls_drawn": 1.6713, "blocks": 0.042, "big_chances_created": 0.1331, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 17.3649, "total_progression": 79.487, "progressive_carries": 1.6777, "shots_off_target": 0.8503, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8576, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "opponent_faced": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1631, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.067, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5371, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9652, "team_expected_assists": 0.6935, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6942, "xa_scale": 0.7186, "opponent_lambda": 1.78, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0677, "after": 0.047 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.161, "after": 0.1157 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.042, "big_chances_created": 0.1331, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 17.3649, "total_progression": 79.487, "progressive_carries": 1.6777, "shots_off_target": 0.8503, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8576, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "opponent_faced": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1631, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3805, "fifa_rank": 3275.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4265, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "assist_rate": 0.0907, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2694, "total_shots": 1.1197, "rating": 7.0363, "minutes": 86.12, "total_pass": 47.9623, "accurate_pass": 37.9415, "duels_won": 4.9256, "total_long_balls": 6.121, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6724, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6413, "crosses_total": 3.1104, "crosses_accurate": 0.8049, "touches": 67.5393, "possession_lost": 16.2119, "dispossessed": 1.0978, "duels_lost": 4.4018, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6354, "interceptions": 1.0013, "tackles_won": 1.4309, "tackles": 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"goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "scorer_weight": 0.0547, "squad_weight_total": 1.0916, "weight_share": 0.0501, "finishing_factor": 1.1631, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4265, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "assist_rate": 0.0907, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2694, "total_shots": 1.1197, "rating": 7.0363, "minutes": 86.12, "total_pass": 47.9623, "accurate_pass": 37.9415, "duels_won": 4.9256, "total_long_balls": 6.121, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6724, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3001, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6413, "crosses_total": 3.1104, "crosses_accurate": 0.8049, "touches": 67.5393, "possession_lost": 16.2119, "dispossessed": 1.0978, 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0.3601, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 49.5237, "possession_lost": 11.0209, "dispossessed": 1.2916, "duels_lost": 5.3588, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.8602, "interceptions": 1.2169, "tackles_won": 1.8983, "tackles": 3.1715, "clearances": 0.7057, "total_contest": 1.0371, "won_contest": 0.8295, "challenges_lost": 1.6091, "fouls": 1.3644, "fouls_drawn": 0.615, "blocks": 0.0666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0719, "xgot": 0.0139, "ball_carries": 10.9644, "total_progression": 56.984, "progressive_carries": 0.7292, "shots_off_target": 0.6917, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.781, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Guéhi", "opponent_faced": "Marc Guéhi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, 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1.1631, "creation_factor": 0.9875 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.067, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5371, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9652, "team_expected_assists": 0.6935, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6942, "xa_scale": 0.7186, "opponent_lambda": 1.78, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0444, "after": 0.0308 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.054, "after": 0.0388 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"model_output": 1.123, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.147 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0904 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0456 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0311 } ], "others": -0.0619, "total": 1.123, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.146987 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.090447 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045551 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.03927 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.031105 } ], "others_margin": -0.06203 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.847999572753906, "model_output": 6.848, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0339 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0258, "total": 6.848, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033852 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013085 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.011257 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008802 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.006853 } ], "others_margin": -0.025775 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0055, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.147, "expected_assists": 0.0921, "assists": 0.1027, "assist_rate": 0.1027, "expected_goals": 0.1109, "goals": 0.1166, "goal_rate": 0.1166, "shots_on_target": 0.3699, "total_shots": 1.1292, "rating": 6.848, "minutes": 81.62, "total_pass": 31.7803, "accurate_pass": 26.8673, "duels_won": 5.1826, "total_long_balls": 1.8824, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9897, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8787, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9886, "crosses_total": 2.134, "crosses_accurate": 0.6016, "touches": 51.2936, "possession_lost": 8.6825, "dispossessed": 0.0659, "duels_lost": 4.8572, "aerial_won": 1.9688, "aerial_lost": 1.8694, "interceptions": 0.3969, "tackles_won": 1.6322, "tackles": 2.7532, "clearances": 2.7993, "total_contest": 0.8693, "won_contest": 0.1773, "challenges_lost": 0.7768, "fouls": 1.5124, "fouls_drawn": 0.2836, "blocks": 0.0022, "big_chances_created": 0.4695, "big_chances_missed": 0.3313, "xgot": 0.0853, "ball_carries": 7.1961, "total_progression": 15.4505, "progressive_carries": 0.3592, "shots_off_target": 0.7593 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0055, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.147, "expected_assists": 0.0921, "assists": 0.1027, "assist_rate": 0.1027, "expected_goals": 0.1109, "goals": 0.1166, "goal_rate": 0.1166, "shots_on_target": 0.3699, "total_shots": 1.1292, "rating": 6.848, "minutes": 81.62, "total_pass": 31.7803, "accurate_pass": 26.8673, "duels_won": 5.1826, "total_long_balls": 1.8824, 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0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1883 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0566 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0293 } ], "others": 0.0566, "total": 0.8638, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.24072 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.066455 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.056458 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.040594 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.035639 } ], "others_margin": 0.067685 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.841010570526123, "model_output": 6.841, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0591 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": 0.0044, "total": 6.841, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059101 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014565 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014374 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.013434 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.009376 } ], "others_margin": 0.004325 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0095, quality 0.746)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2521, "goals": 0.2291, "goal_rate": 0.2291, "shots_on_target": 0.7024, "total_shots": 2.1022, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.872, "rating": 6.841, "minutes": 68.51, "total_pass": 12.318, "accurate_pass": 9.8602, "duels_won": 2.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.7994, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4422, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1797, "crosses_total": 0.7986, "crosses_accurate": 0.0779, "touches": 24.6857, "possession_lost": 7.7019, "dispossessed": 1.1822, "duels_lost": 3.8771, "aerial_lost": 0.5319, "total_contest": 1.5242, "won_contest": 0.6921, "ball_recovery": 2.204, "challenges_lost": 0.5705, "fouls": 0.7663, "fouls_drawn": 0.8144, "assists": 0.0051, "assist_rate": 0.0051, "interceptions": 0.1487, "tackles_won": 0.1854, "tackles": 0.4051, "clearances": 0.5511, "blocks": 0.033, "big_chances_created": 0.2751, "big_chances_missed": 0.6101, "xgot": 0.1768, "offsides": 0.4679, "ball_carries": 9.1922, "total_progression": 42.8366, "progressive_carries": 2.4145, "shots_off_target": 1.3998 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 34000000, "quality_factor": 0.7455, "boost_factor": 1.0095, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0080)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2521, "goals": 0.2316, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "shots_on_target": 0.7011, "total_shots": 2.0984, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.872, "rating": 6.841, "minutes": 68.51, "total_pass": 12.318, "accurate_pass": 9.8602, "duels_won": 2.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.7994, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4422, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1797, "crosses_total": 0.7922, 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"keyPass", "predicted": 0.6248937249183655, "model_output": 0.6249, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1667 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0673 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.044 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0264 } ], "others": -0.0663, "total": 0.6249, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.215962 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.081684 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.05717 }, { "name": "keyPass", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0095, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2845, "goals": 0.2726, "goal_rate": 0.2726, "shots_on_target": 0.7191, "total_shots": 2.2493, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "key_pass": 0.6308, "rating": 6.7378, "minutes": 79.2, "total_pass": 11.911, "accurate_pass": 7.7509, "duels_won": 4.0513, "total_long_balls": 0.102, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0192, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1182, "crosses_total": 0.2618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.2017, "possession_lost": 9.7353, "dispossessed": 1.4132, "duels_lost": 7.0467, "aerial_lost": 2.2297, "total_contest": 1.8451, "won_contest": 1.0142, "ball_recovery": 2.0305, "challenges_lost": 0.287, "fouls": 2.2861, "fouls_drawn": 1.1102, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3106, 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"params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2672, "goals": 0.2556, "goal_rate": 0.2556, "shots_on_target": 0.6743, "total_shots": 2.1137, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "key_pass": 0.6308, "rating": 6.7378, "minutes": 79.2, "total_pass": 11.911, "accurate_pass": 7.7509, "duels_won": 4.0513, "total_long_balls": 0.102, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0192, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1182, "crosses_total": 0.2614, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.2017, "possession_lost": 9.7353, "dispossessed": 1.4132, "duels_lost": 7.0467, "aerial_lost": 2.2297, "total_contest": 1.8451, "won_contest": 1.0142, "ball_recovery": 2.0305, "challenges_lost": 0.287, "fouls": 2.2825, "fouls_drawn": 1.1084, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3101, "tackles": 0.5074, 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"height_edge": 0.002, "attacker_skill": 0.7641, "defender_skill": 0.8606, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Matheus Nunes", "market_value": 43000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8462 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "market_value": 55000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8751 } ], "xg_override": 0.2672 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2508, "after": 2.1137 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.5302, "after": 1.437 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.718, "after": 0.6743 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4986, "after": 0.4682 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2845, "after": 0.2672 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2722, "after": 0.2556 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1002, "after": 0.0941 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2672, "goal_rate": 0.2556, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6743, "total_shots": 2.1137, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "key_pass": 0.6308, "rating": 6.7378, "minutes": 79.2, "total_pass": 11.911, "accurate_pass": 7.7509, "duels_won": 4.0513, "total_long_balls": 0.102, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0192, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1182, "crosses_total": 0.2614, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.2017, "possession_lost": 9.7353, "dispossessed": 1.4132, "duels_lost": 7.0467, "aerial_lost": 2.2297, "total_contest": 1.8451, "won_contest": 1.0142, "ball_recovery": 2.0305, "challenges_lost": 0.287, "fouls": 2.2825, "fouls_drawn": 1.1084, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3101, "tackles": 0.5074, "clearances": 0.7193, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4682, "xgot": 0.0941, "offsides": 0.3952, "ball_carries": 8.7816, "total_progression": 27.7736, "progressive_carries": 1.8743, "shots_off_target": 1.437, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9391, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Matheus Nunes, Rúben Dias", "opponent_faced": "Matheus Nunes, Rúben Dias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.5371, xG scale 0.6942, xA scale 0.7186, team xA 0.69 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1855, "goal_rate": 0.2556, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6743, "total_shots": 2.1137, "expected_assists": 0.0454, "key_pass": 0.6308, "rating": 6.7378, "minutes": 79.2, "total_pass": 11.911, "accurate_pass": 7.7509, "duels_won": 4.0513, "total_long_balls": 0.102, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0192, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1182, "crosses_total": 0.2614, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.2017, "possession_lost": 9.7353, "dispossessed": 1.4132, "duels_lost": 7.0467, "aerial_lost": 2.2297, "total_contest": 1.8451, "won_contest": 1.0142, "ball_recovery": 2.0305, "challenges_lost": 0.287, "fouls": 2.2825, "fouls_drawn": 1.1084, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3101, "tackles": 0.5074, "clearances": 0.7193, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4682, "xgot": 0.0653, "offsides": 0.3952, "ball_carries": 8.7816, "total_progression": 27.7736, 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"importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1894 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0489 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0266 } ], "others": -0.0603, "total": 0.715, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.241972 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.057102 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.053173 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.05257 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.034949 } ], "others_margin": -0.08097 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.78502893447876, "model_output": 6.785, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2828, "goals": 0.3125, "goal_rate": 0.3125, "shots_on_target": 0.7907, "total_shots": 2.0962, "expected_assists": 0.0567, "key_pass": 0.7191, "rating": 6.785, "minutes": 79.89, "total_pass": 20.4356, "accurate_pass": 15.0317, "duels_won": 5.4697, "total_long_balls": 0.8658, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7472, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9988, "crosses_total": 0.1357, "crosses_accurate": 0.0058, "touches": 34.7124, "possession_lost": 10.5247, "dispossessed": 1.369, "duels_lost": 8.3042, "aerial_lost": 3.7928, "total_contest": 1.5315, "won_contest": 0.4225, "ball_recovery": 2.1979, "challenges_lost": 0.5536, "fouls": 1.5816, "fouls_drawn": 1.3834, "assists": 0.1186, "assist_rate": 0.1186, "interceptions": 0.0785, 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"step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.5371, xG scale 0.6942, xA scale 0.7186, team xA 0.69 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goal_rate": 0.2678, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6847, "total_shots": 1.8177, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "key_pass": 0.7191, "rating": 6.785, "minutes": 79.89, "total_pass": 20.4356, "accurate_pass": 15.0317, "duels_won": 5.4697, "total_long_balls": 0.8658, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7472, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9988, "crosses_total": 0.1344, "crosses_accurate": 0.0058, "touches": 34.7124, "possession_lost": 10.5247, "dispossessed": 1.369, "duels_lost": 8.3042, "aerial_lost": 3.7928, "total_contest": 1.5315, "won_contest": 0.4225, "ball_recovery": 2.1979, "challenges_lost": 0.5536, "fouls": 1.5875, "fouls_drawn": 1.387, "assist_rate": 0.1175, "assists": 0, 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"margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.934153 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.133338 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.087265 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.035193 } ], "others_margin": 0.047147 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.778107762336731, "model_output": 0.7781, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8256 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1482 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0306 } ], "others": -0.0257, "total": 0.7781, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.923124 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.240934 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.063298 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.047304 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.038744 } ], "others_margin": -0.03264 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17091742157936096, "model_output": 0.1709, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2394 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.054, "total": 0.1709, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.239422 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.014015 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011997 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010316 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.008624 } ], "others_margin": -0.053987 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.727518081665039, "model_output": 6.7275, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0294, "total": 6.7275, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015726 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014957 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014159 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.010208 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.007211 } ], "others_margin": -0.029417 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0443, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4583, "tackles": 0.5061, "tackles_won": 0.2745, "clearances": 1.9769, "aerial_won": 0.8126, "total_shots": 0.1785, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 12.33, "total_pass": 34.1094, "accurate_pass": 29.7544, "duels_won": 3.971, "total_long_balls": 3.2317, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6036, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7481, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.291, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3613, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4634, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.5764, "possession_lost": 4.528, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.26, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.1729, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 4.9418, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 0.8496, "fouls_drawn": 0.1729, "blocks": 0.8973, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1917, "total_progression": 36.1885, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1785 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0443, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.3 to 15.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5579, "tackles": 0.6161, "tackles_won": 0.3341, "clearances": 2.4064, "aerial_won": 0.9892, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.01, "projection_minutes": 12.33, "minutes_scale": 1.2173, "appearance_probability": 0.364 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5579, "tackles": 0.6161, "tackles_won": 0.3341, "clearances": 2.4064, "aerial_won": 0.9892, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5579, "tackles": 0.6161, "tackles_won": 0.3341, "clearances": 2.4064, "aerial_won": 0.9892, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.5371, xG scale 0.6942, xA scale 0.7186, team xA 0.69 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5579, "tackles": 0.6161, "tackles_won": 0.3341, "clearances": 2.4064, "aerial_won": 0.9892, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8897 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.067, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5371, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9652, "team_expected_assists": 0.6935, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6942, "xa_scale": 0.7186, "opponent_lambda": 1.78, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.364 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0564, "after": 0.0143 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5579, "tackles": 0.6161, "tackles_won": 0.3341, "clearances": 2.4064, "aerial_won": 0.9892, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5579, "tackles": 0.6161, "tackles_won": 0.3341, "clearances": 2.4064, "aerial_won": 0.9892, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 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"predicted": 1.853901743888855, "model_output": 1.8539, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0716 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2198 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1311 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0779 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": 0.0548 } ], "others": 0.0262, "total": 1.8539, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.932647 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.151449 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.080487 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.044952 }, { "name": 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"aerialWon", "margin": 0.044423 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.026445 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.020194 } ], "others_margin": -0.041262 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18050244450569153, "model_output": 0.1805, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2249 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0536, "total": 0.1805, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.224905 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.037617 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.013025 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012408 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.010042 } ], "others_margin": -0.053615 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7516937255859375, "model_output": 6.7517, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": 0.0039, "total": 6.7517, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019737 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016853 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015415 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.008114 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007054 } ], "others_margin": 0.003859 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 16, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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11.7944, "progressive_carries": 0.1878, "key_pass": 0.2209, "shots_off_target": 0.1026, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.56 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.211, "tackles": 0.3175, "tackles_won": 0.1944, "clearances": 1.0537, "aerial_won": 0.3981, "total_shots": 0.1026, "rating": 6.7517, "minutes": 14.56, "total_pass": 9.8701, "accurate_pass": 7.9402, "duels_won": 1.1649, "total_long_balls": 0.6667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4374, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.7376, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2026, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.0034, "possession_lost": 2.2774, "dispossessed": 0.3347, "duels_lost": 0.4087, "aerial_lost": 0.3937, "total_contest": 0.0, 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0.0914306566119194, "model_output": 0.0914, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1371 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.044 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0173, "total": 0.0914, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.564397 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.278776 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.111811 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.067925 }, { "name": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.09426 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.029074 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018064 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011754 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009148 } ], "others_margin": -0.022635 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0018, quality 0.546)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2774, "expected_assists": 0.025, "assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0353, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0371, "shots_on_target": 0.0916, "total_shots": 0.4005, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 16.26, "total_pass": 9.0548, "accurate_pass": 7.9671, "duels_won": 1.5345, "total_long_balls": 0.3942, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2254, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7752, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8294, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1919, "crosses_total": 0.068, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.1418, "possession_lost": 1.7822, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 1.3662, "aerial_won": 0.1659, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.068, "tackles_won": 0.8369, "tackles": 1.2381, "clearances": 0.0492, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3639, "fouls": 0.515, "fouls_drawn": 0.1304, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1149, "big_chances_missed": 0.0679, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.3801, "total_progression": 4.9848, "progressive_carries": 0.1078, "shots_off_target": 0.3089 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12000000, "quality_factor": 0.5457, "boost_factor": 1.0018, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.3 to 10.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assists": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goals": 0.0243, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3639, "fouls": 0.3367, "fouls_drawn": 0.0852, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0444, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.556, "total_progression": 3.2588, "progressive_carries": 0.0705, "shots_off_target": 0.2019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 10.63, "projection_minutes": 16.26, "minutes_scale": 0.6538, "appearance_probability": 0.701 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assists": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goals": 0.0243, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3639, "fouls": 0.3367, "fouls_drawn": 0.0852, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0444, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.556, "total_progression": 3.2588, "progressive_carries": 0.0705, "shots_off_target": 0.2019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3639, "fouls": 0.3367, "fouls_drawn": 0.0852, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0444, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.556, "total_progression": 3.2588, "progressive_carries": 0.0705, "shots_off_target": 0.2019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.63, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.5371, xG scale 0.6942, xA scale 0.7186, team xA 0.69 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3639, "fouls": 0.3367, "fouls_drawn": 0.0852, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0444, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.556, "total_progression": 3.2588, "progressive_carries": 0.0705, "shots_off_target": 0.2019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.63, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0054, "creation_factor": 1.1026 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.067, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5371, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9652, "team_expected_assists": 0.6935, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6942, "xa_scale": 0.7186, "opponent_lambda": 1.78, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.701 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0239, "after": 0.0116 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0163, "after": 0.0082 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3639, "fouls": 0.3367, "fouls_drawn": 0.0852, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0444, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.556, "total_progression": 3.2588, "progressive_carries": 0.0705, "shots_off_target": 0.2019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.63, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0054, "creation_factor": 1.1026, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2165, "fifa_rank": 1100.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, 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1.0054, "appearance_weight": 0.701, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, 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"weight_share": 0.0138, "creation_factor": 1.1026, "appearance_weight": 0.701, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Callum Hudson Odoi": { "player_id": 867442, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 177, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6856, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 5.9218, "dispossessed": 0.4422, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0639, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2067, "total_shots": 0.6588, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "key_pass": 0.6253, "rating": 6.6856, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.2893, "accurate_pass": 10.6047, "duels_won": 1.5147, "total_long_balls": 0.7899, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5255, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1739, "crosses_total": 2.0455, "crosses_accurate": 0.0494, "touches": 19.6699, "possession_lost": 5.9218, "dispossessed": 0.4422, "duels_lost": 1.7986, "aerial_lost": 0.1574, "total_contest": 1.4631, "won_contest": 0.5707, "ball_recovery": 1.5621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1615, "fouls_drawn": 0.2716, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1789, "tackles_won": 0.3624, "tackles": 0.6038, "clearances": 0.149, "blocks": 0.0494, "big_chances_created": 0.0494, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "offsides": 0.0245, "ball_carries": 7.7423, "total_progression": 19.2827, "progressive_carries": 2.249, "shots_off_target": 0.452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.5371, xG scale 0.6942, xA scale 0.7186, team xA 0.69 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2067, "total_shots": 0.6588, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.6253, "rating": 6.6856, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.2893, "accurate_pass": 10.6047, "duels_won": 1.5147, "total_long_balls": 0.7899, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5255, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1739, "crosses_total": 2.0455, "crosses_accurate": 0.0494, "touches": 19.6699, "possession_lost": 5.9218, "dispossessed": 0.4422, "duels_lost": 1.7986, "aerial_lost": 0.1574, "total_contest": 1.4631, "won_contest": 0.5707, "ball_recovery": 1.5621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1615, "fouls_drawn": 0.2716, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1789, "tackles_won": 0.3624, "tackles": 0.6038, "clearances": 0.149, "blocks": 0.0494, "big_chances_created": 0.0494, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.0245, "ball_carries": 7.7423, "total_progression": 19.2827, "progressive_carries": 2.249, "shots_off_target": 0.452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0773, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.067, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5371, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9652, "team_expected_assists": 0.6935, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6942, "xa_scale": 0.7186, "opponent_lambda": 1.78, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.603 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0639, "after": 0.0267 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0611, "after": 0.0265 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2067, "total_shots": 0.6588, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.6253, "rating": 6.6856, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.2893, "accurate_pass": 10.6047, "duels_won": 1.5147, "total_long_balls": 0.7899, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5255, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1739, "crosses_total": 2.0455, "crosses_accurate": 0.0494, "touches": 19.6699, "possession_lost": 5.9218, "dispossessed": 0.4422, "duels_lost": 1.7986, "aerial_lost": 0.1574, "total_contest": 1.4631, "won_contest": 0.5707, "ball_recovery": 1.5621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1615, "fouls_drawn": 0.2716, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1789, "tackles_won": 0.3624, "tackles": 0.6038, "clearances": 0.149, "blocks": 0.0494, "big_chances_created": 0.0494, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, 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"total": 0.2095, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.474898 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.093751 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.089357 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.076975 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075969 } ], "others_margin": -0.383259 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.569970607757568, "model_output": 6.57, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.051 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0100, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0732, "goals": 0.0699, "goal_rate": 0.0699, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.6059, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0.2116, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 13.97, "total_pass": 2.2923, "accurate_pass": 2.0611, "duels_won": 0.6772, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3492, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1519, "crosses_total": 0.3295, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.8302, "possession_lost": 1.4245, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.4681, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0245, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5052, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.3189, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1895, "tackles": 0.1895, "clearances": 0.171, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0475, "xgot": 0.0075, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.4653, "total_progression": 5.3285, "progressive_carries": 0.127, "shots_off_target": 0.3833 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.01, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 13, "history_shrink": 0.2778, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.0 to 12.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goals": 0.0614, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0066, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.287, "total_progression": 4.6801, "progressive_carries": 0.1115, "shots_off_target": 0.3367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.27 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.27, "projection_minutes": 13.97, "minutes_scale": 0.8783, "appearance_probability": 0.734 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goals": 0.0614, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0066, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.287, "total_progression": 4.6801, "progressive_carries": 0.1115, "shots_off_target": 0.3367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.27 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0066, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.287, "total_progression": 4.6801, "progressive_carries": 0.1115, "shots_off_target": 0.3367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.27, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.5371, xG scale 0.6942, xA scale 0.7186, team xA 0.69 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0034, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.287, "total_progression": 4.6801, "progressive_carries": 0.1115, "shots_off_target": 0.3367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.27, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9746, "creation_factor": 0.8606 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.067, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5371, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9652, "team_expected_assists": 0.6935, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6942, "xa_scale": 0.7186, "opponent_lambda": 1.78, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.734 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0643, "after": 0.0328 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0034, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.287, "total_progression": 4.6801, "progressive_carries": 0.1115, "shots_off_target": 0.3367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.27, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9746, "creation_factor": 0.8606, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3069, "fifa_rank": 1113.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0034, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.287, "total_progression": 4.6801, "progressive_carries": 0.1115, "shots_off_target": 0.3367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.27, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0321, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9746, "creation_factor": 0.8606, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "scorer_weight": 0.032, "squad_weight_total": 1.0916, "weight_share": 0.0293, "finishing_factor": 0.9746, "appearance_weight": 0.734, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0034, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.287, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.474898 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.093751 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.089357 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.076975 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075969 } ], "others_margin": -0.383259 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.569970607757568, "model_output": 6.57, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.051 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0100, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0732, "goals": 0.0699, "goal_rate": 0.0699, "shots_on_target": 0.2226, "total_shots": 0.6059, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "key_pass": 0.2116, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 13.97, "total_pass": 2.2923, "accurate_pass": 2.0611, "duels_won": 0.6772, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3492, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1519, "crosses_total": 0.3295, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.8302, "possession_lost": 1.4245, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.4681, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0245, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5052, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4436, "fouls_drawn": 0.3189, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1895, "tackles": 0.1895, "clearances": 0.171, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0475, "xgot": 0.0075, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.4653, "total_progression": 5.3285, "progressive_carries": 0.127, "shots_off_target": 0.3833 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.01, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 13, "history_shrink": 0.2778, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.0 to 12.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goals": 0.0614, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0066, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.287, "total_progression": 4.6801, "progressive_carries": 0.1115, "shots_off_target": 0.3367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.27 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.27, "projection_minutes": 13.97, "minutes_scale": 0.8783, "appearance_probability": 0.734 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goals": 0.0614, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0066, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.287, "total_progression": 4.6801, "progressive_carries": 0.1115, "shots_off_target": 0.3367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.27 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0066, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.287, "total_progression": 4.6801, "progressive_carries": 0.1115, "shots_off_target": 0.3367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.27, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.5371, xG scale 0.6942, xA scale 0.7186, team xA 0.69 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0034, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.287, "total_progression": 4.6801, "progressive_carries": 0.1115, "shots_off_target": 0.3367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.27, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9746, "creation_factor": 0.8606 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.067, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5371, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9652, "team_expected_assists": 0.6935, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6942, "xa_scale": 0.7186, "opponent_lambda": 1.78, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.734 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0643, "after": 0.0328 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0034, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.287, "total_progression": 4.6801, "progressive_carries": 0.1115, "shots_off_target": 0.3367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.27, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9746, "creation_factor": 0.8606, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3069, "fifa_rank": 1113.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0034, 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"Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0614, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1955, "total_shots": 0.5322, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "key_pass": 0.1859, "rating": 6.57, "minutes": 12.27, "total_pass": 2.0134, "accurate_pass": 1.8103, "duels_won": 0.5948, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0117, "crosses_total": 0.2894, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.2424, "possession_lost": 1.2512, "dispossessed": 0.3619, "duels_lost": 1.2894, "aerial_lost": 0.6382, "total_contest": 0.0215, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1664, "tackles": 0.1664, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0417, "xgot": 0.0034, "offsides": 0.0926, "ball_carries": 1.287, 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"name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.022823 } ], "others_margin": -0.0002 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.69597864151001, "model_output": 6.696, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0943 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0226, "total": 6.696, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.09426 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.029074 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018064 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011754 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009148 } ], "others_margin": -0.022635 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0018, quality 0.546)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2774, "expected_assists": 0.025, "assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0353, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0371, "shots_on_target": 0.0916, "total_shots": 0.4005, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 16.26, "total_pass": 9.0548, "accurate_pass": 7.9671, "duels_won": 1.5345, "total_long_balls": 0.3942, "accurate_long_balls": 0.246, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2254, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7752, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8294, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1919, "crosses_total": 0.068, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.1418, "possession_lost": 1.7822, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 1.3662, "aerial_won": 0.1659, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.068, "tackles_won": 0.8369, "tackles": 1.2381, "clearances": 0.0492, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3639, "fouls": 0.515, "fouls_drawn": 0.1304, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1149, "big_chances_missed": 0.0679, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.3801, "total_progression": 4.9848, "progressive_carries": 0.1078, "shots_off_target": 0.3089 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12000000, "quality_factor": 0.5457, "boost_factor": 1.0018, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.3 to 10.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assists": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goals": 0.0243, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3639, "fouls": 0.3367, "fouls_drawn": 0.0852, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0444, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.556, "total_progression": 3.2588, "progressive_carries": 0.0705, "shots_off_target": 0.2019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 10.63, "projection_minutes": 16.26, "minutes_scale": 0.6538, "appearance_probability": 0.701 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assists": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goals": 0.0243, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3639, "fouls": 0.3367, "fouls_drawn": 0.0852, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0444, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.556, "total_progression": 3.2588, "progressive_carries": 0.0705, "shots_off_target": 0.2019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3639, "fouls": 0.3367, "fouls_drawn": 0.0852, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0444, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.556, "total_progression": 3.2588, "progressive_carries": 0.0705, "shots_off_target": 0.2019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.63, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.5371, xG scale 0.6942, xA scale 0.7186, team xA 0.69 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3639, "fouls": 0.3367, "fouls_drawn": 0.0852, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0444, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.556, "total_progression": 3.2588, "progressive_carries": 0.0705, "shots_off_target": 0.2019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.63, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0054, "creation_factor": 1.1026 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.067, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5371, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9652, "team_expected_assists": 0.6935, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6942, "xa_scale": 0.7186, "opponent_lambda": 1.78, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.701 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0239, "after": 0.0116 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0163, "after": 0.0082 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3639, "fouls": 0.3367, "fouls_drawn": 0.0852, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0751, "big_chances_missed": 0.0444, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.556, "total_progression": 3.2588, "progressive_carries": 0.0705, "shots_off_target": 0.2019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.701, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.63, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0054, "creation_factor": 1.1026, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2165, "fifa_rank": 1100.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, 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1.0054, "appearance_weight": 0.701, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1814, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "assist_rate": 0.0231, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0599, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.696, "minutes": 10.63, "total_pass": 5.9196, "accurate_pass": 5.2085, "duels_won": 1.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7624, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.468, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7405, "crosses_total": 0.0445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9377, "possession_lost": 1.1651, "dispossessed": 0.3339, "duels_lost": 0.8932, "aerial_won": 0.1085, "aerial_lost": 0.2643, "interceptions": 0.0445, "tackles_won": 0.5471, "tackles": 0.8094, "clearances": 0.0322, "total_contest": 0.0, 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0639, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2067, "total_shots": 0.6588, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "key_pass": 0.6253, "rating": 6.6856, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.2893, "accurate_pass": 10.6047, "duels_won": 1.5147, "total_long_balls": 0.7899, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5255, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1739, "crosses_total": 2.0455, "crosses_accurate": 0.0494, "touches": 19.6699, "possession_lost": 5.9218, "dispossessed": 0.4422, "duels_lost": 1.7986, "aerial_lost": 0.1574, "total_contest": 1.4631, "won_contest": 0.5707, "ball_recovery": 1.5621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1615, "fouls_drawn": 0.2716, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1789, "tackles_won": 0.3624, "tackles": 0.6038, "clearances": 0.149, "blocks": 0.0494, "big_chances_created": 0.0494, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "offsides": 0.0245, "ball_carries": 7.7423, "total_progression": 19.2827, "progressive_carries": 2.249, "shots_off_target": 0.452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.5371, xG scale 0.6942, xA scale 0.7186, team xA 0.69 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2067, "total_shots": 0.6588, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.6253, "rating": 6.6856, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.2893, "accurate_pass": 10.6047, "duels_won": 1.5147, "total_long_balls": 0.7899, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5255, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1739, "crosses_total": 2.0455, "crosses_accurate": 0.0494, "touches": 19.6699, "possession_lost": 5.9218, "dispossessed": 0.4422, "duels_lost": 1.7986, "aerial_lost": 0.1574, "total_contest": 1.4631, "won_contest": 0.5707, "ball_recovery": 1.5621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1615, "fouls_drawn": 0.2716, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1789, "tackles_won": 0.3624, "tackles": 0.6038, "clearances": 0.149, "blocks": 0.0494, "big_chances_created": 0.0494, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.0245, "ball_carries": 7.7423, "total_progression": 19.2827, "progressive_carries": 2.249, "shots_off_target": 0.452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.603, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0773, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.067, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5371, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9652, "team_expected_assists": 0.6935, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6942, "xa_scale": 0.7186, "opponent_lambda": 1.78, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.603 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0639, "after": 0.0267 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0611, "after": 0.0265 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2067, "total_shots": 0.6588, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.6253, "rating": 6.6856, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.2893, "accurate_pass": 10.6047, "duels_won": 1.5147, "total_long_balls": 0.7899, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5255, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1739, "crosses_total": 2.0455, "crosses_accurate": 0.0494, "touches": 19.6699, "possession_lost": 5.9218, "dispossessed": 0.4422, "duels_lost": 1.7986, "aerial_lost": 0.1574, "total_contest": 1.4631, "won_contest": 0.5707, "ball_recovery": 1.5621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1615, "fouls_drawn": 0.2716, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1789, "tackles_won": 0.3624, "tackles": 0.6038, "clearances": 0.149, "blocks": 0.0494, "big_chances_created": 0.0494, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, 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78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2067, "total_shots": 0.6588, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.6253, "rating": 6.6856, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 12.2893, "accurate_pass": 10.6047, "duels_won": 1.5147, "total_long_balls": 0.7899, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5255, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1292, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1739, "crosses_total": 2.0455, "crosses_accurate": 0.0494, "touches": 19.6699, "possession_lost": 5.9218, "dispossessed": 0.4422, "duels_lost": 1.7986, "aerial_lost": 0.1574, "total_contest": 1.4631, "won_contest": 0.5707, "ball_recovery": 1.5621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1615, "fouls_drawn": 0.2716, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1789, "tackles_won": 0.3624, "tackles": 0.6038, "clearances": 0.149, "blocks": 0.0494, "big_chances_created": 0.0494, 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}, "Ousmane Diomande": { "player_id": 1394342, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 190, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2394 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.054, "total": 0.1709, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.239422 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.014015 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011997 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010316 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.008624 } ], "others_margin": -0.053987 } }, { "target": 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"margin": -0.007211 } ], "others_margin": -0.029417 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0443, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4583, "tackles": 0.5061, "tackles_won": 0.2745, "clearances": 1.9769, "aerial_won": 0.8126, "total_shots": 0.1785, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 12.33, "total_pass": 34.1094, "accurate_pass": 29.7544, "duels_won": 3.971, "total_long_balls": 3.2317, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6036, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7481, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.291, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3613, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4634, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.5764, "possession_lost": 4.528, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.26, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.1729, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 4.9418, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 0.8496, "fouls_drawn": 0.1729, "blocks": 0.8973, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0463, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1917, "total_progression": 36.1885, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1785 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0443, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.3 to 15.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5579, "tackles": 0.6161, "tackles_won": 0.3341, "clearances": 2.4064, "aerial_won": 0.9892, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.01, "projection_minutes": 12.33, "minutes_scale": 1.2173, "appearance_probability": 0.364 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5579, "tackles": 0.6161, "tackles_won": 0.3341, "clearances": 2.4064, "aerial_won": 0.9892, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5579, "tackles": 0.6161, "tackles_won": 0.3341, "clearances": 2.4064, "aerial_won": 0.9892, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.5371, xG scale 0.6942, xA scale 0.7186, team xA 0.69 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5579, "tackles": 0.6161, "tackles_won": 0.3341, "clearances": 2.4064, "aerial_won": 0.9892, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8897 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.067, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5371, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9652, "team_expected_assists": 0.6935, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.6942, "xa_scale": 0.7186, "opponent_lambda": 1.78, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.364 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0564, "after": 0.0143 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5579, "tackles": 0.6161, "tackles_won": 0.3341, "clearances": 2.4064, "aerial_won": 0.9892, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8897, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1131, "fifa_rank": 592.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5579, "tackles": 0.6161, "tackles_won": 0.3341, "clearances": 2.4064, "aerial_won": 0.9892, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.014, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8897, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.014, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0114, "squad_weight_total": 1.0916, "weight_share": 0.0105, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.364, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5579, "tackles": 0.6161, "tackles_won": 0.3341, "clearances": 2.4064, "aerial_won": 0.9892, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 41.5205, "accurate_pass": 36.2193, "duels_won": 4.8338, "total_long_balls": 3.9339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.952, "total_own_half_passes": 28.9079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.917, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3023, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.0444, "possession_lost": 5.5118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9683, "aerial_lost": 2.0645, "total_contest": 0.2105, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.1729, "fouls": 1.0342, "fouls_drawn": 0.2105, "blocks": 1.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.8406, "total_progression": 44.0513, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.745, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.014, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0016, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8897, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0016, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0014, "squad_weight_total": 0.6575, "weight_share": 0.0022, "creation_factor": 0.8897, "appearance_weight": 0.364, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.07, "expected_assists": 0.69, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 406, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 20, "avg_rating": 6.88, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1 } }, "Man City": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Gianluigi Donnarumma": { "player_id": 824509, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 196, "market_value": 46000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.051, "rating": 6.9998, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 11, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 38, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.8112, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 6.7999, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2421, "shots_faced": 10.1, "expected_saves": 2.47, "high_pressure_saves": 0.85, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Igor Jesus", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363908.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8538, "goals_prevented": 0.051, "rating": 6.9998, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.4418, "accurate_pass": 21.8878, "total_long_balls": 11.0418, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7404, "touches": 37.5433, "clearances": 0.8951, "ball_recovery": 6.9523, "high_claims": 0.9513, "punches": 0.8112, "aerial_won": 0.2784, "sweeper_actions": 0.2806, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1729, "saves_inside_box": 1.6346, "possession_lost": 6.7999, "duels_won": 0.4914, "duels_lost": 0.0874, "total_contest": 0.0953, "won_contest": 0.0953, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1166, "total_own_half_passes": 21.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.561, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2421, "shots_faced": 11.8, "expected_saves": 2.89, "high_pressure_saves": 0.99, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Igor Jesus", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.4796, xG scale 1.2030, xA scale 1.1857, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8538, "goals_prevented": 0.051, "rating": 6.9998, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.4418, "accurate_pass": 21.8878, "total_long_balls": 11.0418, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7404, "touches": 37.5433, "clearances": 0.8951, "ball_recovery": 6.9523, "high_claims": 0.9513, "punches": 0.8112, "aerial_won": 0.2784, "sweeper_actions": 0.2806, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1729, "saves_inside_box": 1.6346, "possession_lost": 6.7999, "duels_won": 0.4914, "duels_lost": 0.0874, "total_contest": 0.0953, "won_contest": 0.0953, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1166, "total_own_half_passes": 21.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.561, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2421, "shots_faced": 10.1, "expected_saves": 2.47, "high_pressure_saves": 0.85, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Igor Jesus", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.78, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4796, "squad_xa_sum": 1.201, "team_expected_assists": 1.424, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.203, "xa_scale": 1.1857, "opponent_lambda": 1.067, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.8, "after": 10.1 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.89, "after": 2.47 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.99, "after": 0.85 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 89.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8538, "goals_prevented": 0.051, "rating": 6.9998, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.4418, "accurate_pass": 21.8878, "total_long_balls": 11.0418, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7404, "touches": 37.5433, "clearances": 0.8951, "ball_recovery": 6.9523, "high_claims": 0.9513, "punches": 0.8112, "aerial_won": 0.2784, "sweeper_actions": 0.2806, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1729, "saves_inside_box": 1.6346, "possession_lost": 6.7999, "duels_won": 0.4914, "duels_lost": 0.0874, "total_contest": 0.0953, "won_contest": 0.0953, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1166, "total_own_half_passes": 21.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.561, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2421, "shots_faced": 10.1, "expected_saves": 2.47, "high_pressure_saves": 0.85, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Igor Jesus", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"ball_recovery": 6.9523, "high_claims": 0.9513, "punches": 0.8112, "aerial_won": 0.2784, "sweeper_actions": 0.2806, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1729, "saves_inside_box": 1.6346, "possession_lost": 6.7999, "duels_won": 0.4914, "duels_lost": 0.0874, "total_contest": 0.0953, "won_contest": 0.0953, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1166, "total_own_half_passes": 21.2722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.561, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2421, "shots_faced": 10.1, "expected_saves": 2.47, "high_pressure_saves": 0.85, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap, Igor Jesus", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.9743, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8511, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3121 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8538, "goals_prevented": 0.051, "rating": 6.9998, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.4418, "accurate_pass": 21.8878, "total_long_balls": 11.0418, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7404, "touches": 37.5433, "clearances": 0.8951, "ball_recovery": 6.9523, "high_claims": 0.9513, "punches": 0.8112, "aerial_won": 0.2784, "sweeper_actions": 0.2806, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1729, "saves_inside_box": 1.6346, "possession_lost": 6.7999, "duels_won": 0.4914, "duels_lost": 0.0874, 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0.2482, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.23, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Marc Guéhi": { "player_id": 877994, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 182, "market_value": 71000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0667, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 72, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 41, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 37, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 88, "possession_lost": 6.4081, "dispossessed": 0.4831, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0698, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1191, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.092, "expected_assists": 0.06, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0435, "ball_carries": 27, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749, "opponent_faced": "Xaver Schlager", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0879, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0582, "finishing_factor": 0.947, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363892.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston 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"season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 56, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, 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"tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0116, "total": 6.9547, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.113661 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.074412 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.021911 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02159 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.020284 } ], "others_margin": -0.011586 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0126, quality 0.840)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8854, "tackles": 0.8319, "tackles_won": 0.5559, "clearances": 3.9289, "aerial_won": 2.1698, "total_shots": 0.5656, "rating": 6.9547, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 86.7004, "accurate_pass": 79.1966, "duels_won": 3.2346, "total_long_balls": 7.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0161, "total_own_half_passes": 50.4382, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.3753, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.2621, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8213, "crosses_total": 0.1405, "crosses_accurate": 0.0477, "touches": 94.5299, "possession_lost": 8.0471, "dispossessed": 0.0176, "duels_lost": 3.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.2512, "total_contest": 0.2639, "won_contest": 0.1584, "ball_recovery": 3.0894, "challenges_lost": 0.2379, "fouls": 1.4023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2645, "blocks": 0.5384, "goals": 0.0113, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0492, "expected_assists": 0.0604, "shots_on_target": 0.306, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0393, "ball_carries": 35.6323, "total_progression": 113.1688, "progressive_carries": 1.149, "key_pass": 0.38, "shots_off_target": 0.2596 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 55000000, "quality_factor": 0.8399, "boost_factor": 1.0126, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8812, "tackles": 0.8319, "tackles_won": 0.5552, "clearances": 3.9289, "aerial_won": 2.1698, "total_shots": 0.5648, "rating": 6.9547, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 86.7004, "accurate_pass": 79.1966, "duels_won": 3.2346, "total_long_balls": 7.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0161, "total_own_half_passes": 50.4382, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.3753, 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"after": 1.3871 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8812, "tackles": 0.8319, "tackles_won": 0.5552, "clearances": 3.9289, "aerial_won": 2.1698, "total_shots": 0.5676, "rating": 6.9547, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 86.7004, "accurate_pass": 79.1966, "duels_won": 3.2346, "total_long_balls": 7.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0161, "total_own_half_passes": 50.4382, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.3753, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.2621, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8213, "crosses_total": 0.139, "crosses_accurate": 0.0477, "touches": 94.5299, "possession_lost": 8.0471, "dispossessed": 0.0176, "duels_lost": 3.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.2512, "total_contest": 0.2639, "won_contest": 0.1584, "ball_recovery": 3.0894, "challenges_lost": 0.2379, "fouls": 1.3871, "fouls_drawn": 0.267, "blocks": 0.5384, "goals": 0.0112, "goal_rate": 0.0112, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0492, "expected_assists": 0.0604, "shots_on_target": 0.308, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0393, "ball_carries": 35.6323, "total_progression": 113.1688, "progressive_carries": 1.149, "key_pass": 0.38, "shots_off_target": 0.2596 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8812, "tackles": 0.8319, "tackles_won": 0.5552, "clearances": 3.9289, "aerial_won": 2.1698, "total_shots": 0.5676, "rating": 6.9547, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 86.7004, "accurate_pass": 79.1966, "duels_won": 3.2346, "total_long_balls": 7.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0161, "total_own_half_passes": 50.4382, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.3753, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.2621, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8213, "crosses_total": 0.139, "crosses_accurate": 0.0477, "touches": 94.5299, "possession_lost": 8.0471, "dispossessed": 0.0176, "duels_lost": 3.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.2512, "total_contest": 0.2639, "won_contest": 0.1584, "ball_recovery": 3.0894, "challenges_lost": 0.2379, "fouls": 1.3871, "fouls_drawn": 0.267, "blocks": 0.5384, "goals": 0.0112, "goal_rate": 0.0112, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0492, "expected_assists": 0.0604, "shots_on_target": 0.308, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0393, "ball_carries": 35.6323, "total_progression": 113.1688, "progressive_carries": 1.149, "key_pass": 0.38, "shots_off_target": 0.2596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8812, "tackles": 0.8319, "tackles_won": 0.5552, "clearances": 3.9289, "aerial_won": 2.1698, "total_shots": 0.5676, "rating": 6.9547, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 86.7004, "accurate_pass": 79.1966, "duels_won": 3.2346, "total_long_balls": 7.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0161, "total_own_half_passes": 50.4382, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.3753, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.2621, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8213, "crosses_total": 0.139, "crosses_accurate": 0.0477, "touches": 94.5299, "possession_lost": 8.0471, "dispossessed": 0.0176, "duels_lost": 3.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.2512, "total_contest": 0.2639, "won_contest": 0.1584, "ball_recovery": 3.0894, "challenges_lost": 0.2379, "fouls": 1.3871, "fouls_drawn": 0.267, "blocks": 0.5384, "goal_rate": 0.0112, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0492, "expected_assists": 0.0604, "shots_on_target": 0.308, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0393, "ball_carries": 35.6323, "total_progression": 113.1688, "progressive_carries": 1.149, "key_pass": 0.38, "shots_off_target": 0.2596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.4796, xG scale 1.2030, xA scale 1.1857, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8812, "tackles": 0.8319, "tackles_won": 0.5552, "clearances": 3.9289, "aerial_won": 2.1698, "total_shots": 0.5676, "rating": 6.9547, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 86.7004, "accurate_pass": 79.1966, "duels_won": 3.2346, "total_long_balls": 7.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0161, "total_own_half_passes": 50.4382, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.3753, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.2621, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8213, "crosses_total": 0.139, "crosses_accurate": 0.0477, "touches": 94.5299, "possession_lost": 8.0471, "dispossessed": 0.0176, "duels_lost": 3.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.2512, "total_contest": 0.2639, "won_contest": 0.1584, "ball_recovery": 3.0894, "challenges_lost": 0.2379, "fouls": 1.3871, "fouls_drawn": 0.267, "blocks": 0.5384, "goal_rate": 0.0112, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0592, "expected_assists": 0.0716, "shots_on_target": 0.308, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0473, "ball_carries": 35.6323, "total_progression": 113.1688, "progressive_carries": 1.149, "key_pass": 0.38, "shots_off_target": 0.2596, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.78, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4796, "squad_xa_sum": 1.201, "team_expected_assists": 1.424, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.203, "xa_scale": 1.1857, "opponent_lambda": 1.067, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0492, "after": 0.0592 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0604, "after": 0.0716 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 87.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8812, "tackles": 0.8319, "tackles_won": 0.5552, "clearances": 3.9289, "aerial_won": 2.1698, "total_shots": 0.5676, "rating": 6.9547, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 86.7004, "accurate_pass": 79.1966, "duels_won": 3.2346, "total_long_balls": 7.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0161, "total_own_half_passes": 50.4382, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.3753, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.2621, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8213, "crosses_total": 0.139, "crosses_accurate": 0.0477, "touches": 94.5299, "possession_lost": 8.0471, "dispossessed": 0.0176, "duels_lost": 3.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.2512, "total_contest": 0.2639, "won_contest": 0.1584, "ball_recovery": 3.0894, "challenges_lost": 0.2379, "fouls": 1.3871, "fouls_drawn": 0.267, "blocks": 0.5384, "goal_rate": 0.0112, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0592, "expected_assists": 0.0716, 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"team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0575, "goal_rate": 0.0112, "scorer_weight": 0.0474, "squad_weight_total": 1.9743, "weight_share": 0.024, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8511, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3121 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8812, "tackles": 0.8319, "tackles_won": 0.5552, "clearances": 3.9289, "aerial_won": 2.1698, "total_shots": 0.5676, "rating": 6.9547, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 86.7004, "accurate_pass": 79.1966, "duels_won": 3.2346, "total_long_balls": 7.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0161, "total_own_half_passes": 50.4382, 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"margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.118819 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050703 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017517 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012903 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.011011 } ], "others_margin": 0.011729 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.930487155914307, "model_output": 6.9305, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0795 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0092 } 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0.0005, "goal_rate": 0.0005, "assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0422, "expected_goals": 0.0242, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "shots_on_target": 0.174, "big_chances_created": 0.0574, "xgot": 0.046, "ball_carries": 19.2532, "total_progression": 48.9043, "progressive_carries": 1.4421, "key_pass": 0.6018, "shots_off_target": 0.2746 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0019)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9216, "tackles": 1.6069, "tackles_won": 0.9874, "clearances": 2.4824, "aerial_won": 1.2265, "total_shots": 0.4477, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 86.17, "total_pass": 56.0732, "accurate_pass": 49.8374, "duels_won": 4.6738, "total_long_balls": 2.9759, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3607, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8468, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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"params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9216, "tackles": 1.6069, "tackles_won": 0.9874, "clearances": 2.4824, "aerial_won": 1.2265, "total_shots": 0.4483, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 86.17, "total_pass": 56.0732, "accurate_pass": 49.8374, "duels_won": 4.6738, "total_long_balls": 2.9759, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3607, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8468, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3097, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.2264, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.5277, "crosses_total": 1.1678, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 77.1472, "possession_lost": 11.0625, "dispossessed": 0.8925, "duels_lost": 2.8597, "aerial_lost": 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recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.813)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2666, "tackles": 1.5872, "tackles_won": 0.907, "clearances": 3.4517, "aerial_won": 1.2551, "total_shots": 0.5421, "rating": 7.0342, "minutes": 88.89, "total_pass": 78.9736, "accurate_pass": 73.8286, "duels_won": 4.8724, "total_long_balls": 4.1118, "accurate_long_balls": 1.897, "total_own_half_passes": 39.718, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.51, "total_opp_half_passes": 39.2556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.3187, "crosses_total": 0.9132, "crosses_accurate": 0.1712, "touches": 94.2583, "possession_lost": 6.8659, "dispossessed": 0.0337, "duels_lost": 2.3411, "aerial_lost": 0.7542, "total_contest": 0.545, "won_contest": 0.4378, "ball_recovery": 5.0408, "challenges_lost": 0.1592, "fouls": 1.2869, "fouls_drawn": 0.4795, "blocks": 0.5452, "goals": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.897)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0598, "expected_assists": 0.1981, "assists": 0.1265, "assist_rate": 0.1265, "expected_goals": 0.1636, "goals": 0.1735, "goal_rate": 0.1735, "shots_on_target": 0.5825, "total_shots": 1.5751, "rating": 7.1573, "minutes": 83.18, "total_pass": 59.3061, "accurate_pass": 51.745, "duels_won": 3.4519, "total_long_balls": 4.0914, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1485, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0049, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.2824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.7401, "crosses_total": 3.9678, "crosses_accurate": 1.017, "touches": 74.622, "possession_lost": 13.3913, "dispossessed": 0.9046, "duels_lost": 4.6103, "aerial_won": 0.6552, "aerial_lost": 0.8221, "interceptions": 0.5771, "tackles_won": 0.3919, "tackles": 0.8118, "clearances": 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2.0598, "expected_assists": 0.1981, "assists": 0.1265, "assist_rate": 0.1265, "expected_goals": 0.1615, "goals": 0.1712, "goal_rate": 0.1712, "shots_on_target": 0.5749, "total_shots": 1.5546, "rating": 7.1573, "minutes": 83.18, "total_pass": 59.3061, "accurate_pass": 51.745, "duels_won": 3.4519, "total_long_balls": 4.0914, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1485, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0238, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0049, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.2824, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.7401, "crosses_total": 3.9678, "crosses_accurate": 1.017, "touches": 74.622, "possession_lost": 13.3913, "dispossessed": 0.9046, "duels_lost": 4.6103, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8221, "interceptions": 0.5771, "tackles_won": 0.3919, "tackles": 0.8118, "clearances": 0.5237, "total_contest": 0.9632, "won_contest": 0.3319, "challenges_lost": 1.4119, "fouls": 0.9198, "fouls_drawn": 1.6531, "blocks": 0.1676, "big_chances_created": 0.3232, "big_chances_missed": 0.0999, "xgot": 0.108, "ball_carries": 22.1318, "total_progression": 80.1759, "progressive_carries": 1.4356, "shots_off_target": 0.9797, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.987, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Murillo", "opponent_faced": "Murillo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Murillo", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.987, "skill_edge": 0.0152, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.897, "defender_skill": 0.8633, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Murillo", "market_value": 49000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8633 } ], "xg_override": 0.1615 } }, 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"contribution": 0.1979 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.06 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0579 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0546 } ], "others": 0.4425, "total": 2.3235, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.634903 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.197893 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.060013 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.057938 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.054556 } ], "others_margin": 0.442351 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.245229721069336, "model_output": 7.2452, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1098 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0709 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0257 } ], "others": 0.1163, "total": 7.2452, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.109813 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.070879 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033567 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.031495 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.025726 } ], "others_margin": 0.116346 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted 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0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "opponent_faced": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0378, "skill_edge": 0.0057, "height_edge": 0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.8982, "defender_skill": 0.8855, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "market_value": 76000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.8855 } ], "xg_override": 0.2076 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.3609, "after": 2.4501 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1761 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0933 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.072 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0542 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0523 } ], "others": 0.0929, "total": 1.5257, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.176144 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.093307 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.072015 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.054219 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.052297 } ], "others_margin": 0.092752 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.952852249145508, "model_output": 6.9529, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", 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0.5187, "total_contest": 2.0792, "won_contest": 0.8428, "challenges_lost": 0.4596, "fouls": 0.5569, "fouls_drawn": 1.0474, "blocks": 0.0707, "big_chances_created": 0.8703, "big_chances_missed": 0.2781, "xgot": 0.1574, "ball_carries": 18.0306, "total_progression": 34.1805, "progressive_carries": 1.8014, "shots_off_target": 0.9951 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 62000000, "quality_factor": 0.8569, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9379, "expected_assists": 0.1959, "assists": 0.1935, "assist_rate": 0.1935, "expected_goals": 0.1419, "goals": 0.1671, "goal_rate": 0.1671, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.5494, "rating": 6.9529, "minutes": 74.44, "total_pass": 44.975, "accurate_pass": 39.3055, "duels_won": 3.7118, "total_long_balls": 2.8674, "accurate_long_balls": 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0581, quality 0.893)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6962, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "assists": 0.0829, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.0646, "shots_on_target": 0.1532, "total_shots": 0.5298, "rating": 6.8958, "minutes": 78.54, "total_pass": 35.6046, "accurate_pass": 32.6292, "duels_won": 2.6859, "total_long_balls": 2.0878, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2888, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5306, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6278, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.074, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0013, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.5128, "possession_lost": 6.0996, "dispossessed": 1.3409, "duels_lost": 2.5171, "aerial_won": 0.2425, "aerial_lost": 0.2425, "interceptions": 0.3914, "tackles_won": 0.7275, "tackles": 0.7275, "clearances": 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4045 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0394 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0415 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.023 } ], "others": 0.0996, "total": 0.6235, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.648012 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.085057 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.082479 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.046188 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.04494 } ], "others_margin": 0.173977 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.59657222032547, "model_output": 0.5966, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.204 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2743 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0849 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0603 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0544 } ], "others": -0.1412, "total": 0.5966, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.036357 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.256684 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.09496 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.073365 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.071146 } ], "others_margin": -0.212427 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4951357841491699, "model_output": 0.4951, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7063 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0849 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0534 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0439 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0272 } ], "others": -0.0467, "total": 0.4951, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.725007 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.137029 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.0969 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.080274 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.04892 } ], "others_margin": -0.089936 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5176711082458496, "model_output": 0.5177, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2264 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1783 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0215 } ], "others": -0.0413, "total": 0.5177, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.226367 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.178258 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.031956 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023818 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.021494 } ], "others_margin": -0.041317 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729945182800293, "model_output": 6.7299, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0404, "total": 6.7299, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.026911 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016607 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016116 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013401 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009268 } ], "others_margin": -0.040353 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0122, quality 0.878)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2949, "tackles": 0.8701, "tackles_won": 0.6311, "clearances": 0.6039, "aerial_won": 0.5012, "total_shots": 0.524, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 20.92, "total_pass": 13.5589, "accurate_pass": 11.6536, "duels_won": 2.4011, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2082, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4453, "crosses_total": 0.2087, "crosses_accurate": 0.2087, "touches": 19.3855, "possession_lost": 3.2008, "dispossessed": 0.5546, "duels_lost": 2.5096, "aerial_lost": 0.3879, "total_contest": 0.4352, "won_contest": 0.0787, "ball_recovery": 1.9174, "challenges_lost": 0.6038, "fouls": 0.6068, "fouls_drawn": 0.3176, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1893, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "shots_on_target": 0.1774, "big_chances_created": 0.2087, "xgot": 0.0614, "ball_carries": 5.4543, "total_progression": 40.2534, "progressive_carries": 0.8426, "key_pass": 0.4102, "shots_off_target": 0.3466 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 76000000, "quality_factor": 0.8781, "boost_factor": 1.0122, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0080)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2925, "tackles": 0.8701, "tackles_won": 0.6271, "clearances": 0.6039, "aerial_won": 0.5012, "total_shots": 0.522, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 20.92, "total_pass": 13.5589, "accurate_pass": 11.6536, "duels_won": 2.4011, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2082, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4453, "crosses_total": 0.2114, "crosses_accurate": 0.2087, "touches": 19.3855, "possession_lost": 3.2008, "dispossessed": 0.5546, "duels_lost": 2.5096, "aerial_lost": 0.3879, "total_contest": 0.4352, "won_contest": 0.0787, "ball_recovery": 1.9174, "challenges_lost": 0.6038, "fouls": 0.6041, "fouls_drawn": 0.3151, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1893, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "shots_on_target": 0.176, "big_chances_created": 0.2087, "xgot": 0.0614, "ball_carries": 5.4543, "total_progression": 40.2534, "progressive_carries": 0.8426, "key_pass": 0.4102, "shots_off_target": 0.3466 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.008, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2324, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection 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"big_chances_created": 0.1528, "xgot": 0.045, "ball_carries": 3.9936, "total_progression": 29.473, "progressive_carries": 0.6169, "key_pass": 0.3003, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.253, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.32 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.32, "projection_minutes": 20.92, "minutes_scale": 0.7322, "appearance_probability": 0.253 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2142, "tackles": 0.6371, "tackles_won": 0.4592, "clearances": 0.4422, "aerial_won": 0.367, "total_shots": 0.3827, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 15.32, "total_pass": 9.9276, "accurate_pass": 8.5326, "duels_won": 1.7581, "total_long_balls": 0.0938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5616, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4514, "crosses_total": 0.1548, "crosses_accurate": 0.1528, "touches": 14.1938, "possession_lost": 2.3436, "dispossessed": 0.5546, "duels_lost": 1.8375, "aerial_lost": 0.3879, "total_contest": 0.3186, "won_contest": 0.0576, "ball_recovery": 1.4039, "challenges_lost": 0.6038, "fouls": 0.4423, "fouls_drawn": 0.2307, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1386, "expected_assists": 0.021, "shots_on_target": 0.1289, "big_chances_created": 0.1528, "xgot": 0.045, "ball_carries": 3.9936, "total_progression": 29.473, "progressive_carries": 0.6169, "key_pass": 0.3003, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.253, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.32 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2142, "tackles": 0.6371, "tackles_won": 0.4592, "clearances": 0.4422, "aerial_won": 0.367, "total_shots": 0.3827, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 15.32, "total_pass": 9.9276, "accurate_pass": 8.5326, "duels_won": 1.7581, "total_long_balls": 0.0938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5616, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4514, "crosses_total": 0.1548, "crosses_accurate": 0.1528, "touches": 14.1938, "possession_lost": 2.3436, "dispossessed": 0.5546, "duels_lost": 1.8375, "aerial_lost": 0.3879, "total_contest": 0.3186, "won_contest": 0.0576, "ball_recovery": 1.4039, "challenges_lost": 0.6038, "fouls": 0.4423, "fouls_drawn": 0.2307, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1386, "expected_assists": 0.021, "shots_on_target": 0.1289, "big_chances_created": 0.1528, "xgot": 0.045, "ball_carries": 3.9936, "total_progression": 29.473, "progressive_carries": 0.6169, "key_pass": 0.3003, "shots_off_target": 0.2538, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.253, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.32, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.458, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.253, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2142, "tackles": 0.6371, "tackles_won": 0.4592, "clearances": 0.4422, "aerial_won": 0.367, "total_shots": 0.3827, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 15.32, "total_pass": 9.9276, "accurate_pass": 8.5326, "duels_won": 1.7581, "total_long_balls": 0.0938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5616, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4514, "crosses_total": 0.1548, "crosses_accurate": 0.1528, "touches": 14.1938, "possession_lost": 2.3436, "dispossessed": 0.5546, "duels_lost": 1.8375, "aerial_lost": 0.3879, "total_contest": 0.3186, "won_contest": 0.0576, "ball_recovery": 1.4039, "challenges_lost": 0.6038, "fouls": 0.4423, "fouls_drawn": 0.2307, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1386, "expected_assists": 0.021, "shots_on_target": 0.1289, 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0.0836 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0511 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0427 } ], "others": -0.0183, "total": 0.7879, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.746271 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.228873 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.097519 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.05846 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.051578 } ], "others_margin": -0.023088 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5954936742782593, "model_output": 0.5955, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2337 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2122 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0433, "total": 0.5955, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.233726 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.212189 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.018914 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.017289 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01325 } ], "others_margin": 0.043255 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.862705707550049, "model_output": 6.8627, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0261, "total": 6.8627, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.028364 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021792 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.01998 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.01323 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.011204 } ], "others_margin": 0.026084 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0171, quality 0.869)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.372, "tackles": 0.7048, "tackles_won": 0.426, "clearances": 0.9057, "aerial_won": 0.8014, "total_shots": 0.6057, "rating": 6.8627, "minutes": 22.39, "total_pass": 14.121, "accurate_pass": 11.6062, "duels_won": 1.2131, "total_long_balls": 1.457, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7112, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.881, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7253, "crosses_total": 0.5905, "crosses_accurate": 0.2714, "touches": 20.4881, "possession_lost": 3.4724, "dispossessed": 0.6383, "duels_lost": 2.1707, "aerial_lost": 0.4266, "total_contest": 0.196, "won_contest": 0.196, "ball_recovery": 1.9746, "challenges_lost": 0.3192, "fouls": 0.7865, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"tackles": 0.4811, "tackles_won": 0.2884, "clearances": 0.6182, "aerial_won": 0.547, "total_shots": 0.4129, "rating": 6.8627, "minutes": 15.28, "total_pass": 9.6382, "accurate_pass": 7.9217, "duels_won": 0.828, "total_long_balls": 0.9945, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4854, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3315, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5903, "crosses_total": 0.4004, "crosses_accurate": 0.1852, "touches": 13.984, "possession_lost": 2.3701, "dispossessed": 0.6383, "duels_lost": 1.4816, "aerial_lost": 0.4266, "total_contest": 0.1338, "won_contest": 0.1338, "ball_recovery": 1.3478, "challenges_lost": 0.3192, "fouls": 0.5326, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0012, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1303, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "shots_on_target": 0.1333, "big_chances_created": 0.1852, "xgot": 0.0493, "ball_carries": 3.8699, "total_progression": 8.0716, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1852, "shots_off_target": 0.2796, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.252, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.28, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.458, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.252, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.1333, "big_chances_created": 0.1852, "xgot": 0.0493, "ball_carries": 3.8699, "total_progression": 8.0716, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1852, "shots_off_target": 0.2796, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.252, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.28, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.458, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 143, "fifa_rank": 143.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } } ] }, "Mateo Kovačić": { "player_id": 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"away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 449, "combined_rank_score": 271.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 44.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 498.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7907, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", 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false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.112508 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.049246 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029547 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016029 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.012561 } ], "others_margin": 0.029536 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0015, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4693, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assists": 0.0659, "assist_rate": 0.0659, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goals": 0.0281, "goal_rate": 0.0281, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.2471, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 18.55, "total_pass": 23.6586, "accurate_pass": 22.2144, "duels_won": 0.7519, "total_long_balls": 0.632, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 7.8535, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.3982, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8052, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.8162, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7779, "possession_lost": 2.6796, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 0.7391, "aerial_won": 0.2211, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1597, "tackles_won": 0.1358, "tackles": 0.2512, "clearances": 0.1597, "total_contest": 0.5256, "won_contest": 0.0834, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1962, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1154, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6988, "total_progression": 22.2587, "progressive_carries": 0.426, "shots_off_target": 0.1573 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9700000, "quality_factor": 0.5189, "boost_factor": 1.0015, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0077)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4693, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assists": 0.0654, "assist_rate": 0.0654, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "shots_on_target": 0.0891, "total_shots": 0.2452, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 18.55, "total_pass": 23.6586, "accurate_pass": 22.2144, "duels_won": 0.7519, "total_long_balls": 0.632, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 7.8535, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.3982, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8052, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.8162, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7779, "possession_lost": 2.6796, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 0.7391, "aerial_won": 0.2211, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1585, "tackles_won": 0.1348, "tackles": 0.2512, "clearances": 0.1597, "total_contest": 0.5256, "won_contest": 0.0834, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1154, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6988, "total_progression": 22.2587, "progressive_carries": 0.426, "shots_off_target": 0.1573 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0077, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2061, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.6 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5599, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assists": 0.078, "assist_rate": 0.078, "expected_goals": 0.0268, "goals": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0333, "shots_on_target": 0.1063, "total_shots": 0.294, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 28.2245, "accurate_pass": 26.5016, "duels_won": 0.897, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3525, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.826, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6756, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.9458, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 0.8817, "aerial_won": 0.2638, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1891, "tackles_won": 0.1608, "tackles": 0.2997, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.627, "won_contest": 0.0995, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1377, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7636, "total_progression": 26.5544, "progressive_carries": 0.5082, "shots_off_target": 0.1877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.699, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.13, "projection_minutes": 18.55, "minutes_scale": 1.193, "appearance_probability": 0.699 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5599, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assists": 0.078, "assist_rate": 0.078, "expected_goals": 0.0268, "goals": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0333, "shots_on_target": 0.1063, "total_shots": 0.294, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 28.2245, "accurate_pass": 26.5016, "duels_won": 0.897, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3525, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.826, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6756, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.9458, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 0.8817, "aerial_won": 0.2638, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1891, "tackles_won": 0.1608, "tackles": 0.2997, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.627, "won_contest": 0.0995, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1377, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7636, "total_progression": 26.5544, "progressive_carries": 0.5082, "shots_off_target": 0.1877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.699, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5599, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.078, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0268, "goal_rate": 0.0333, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1063, "total_shots": 0.294, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 28.2245, "accurate_pass": 26.5016, "duels_won": 0.897, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3525, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.826, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6756, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.9458, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 0.8817, "aerial_won": 0.2638, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1891, "tackles_won": 0.1608, "tackles": 0.2997, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.627, "won_contest": 0.0995, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1377, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7636, "total_progression": 26.5544, "progressive_carries": 0.5082, "shots_off_target": 0.1877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.699, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.458, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.4796, xG scale 1.2030, xA scale 1.1857, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5599, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assist_rate": 0.078, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0333, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1063, "total_shots": 0.294, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 28.2245, "accurate_pass": 26.5016, "duels_won": 0.897, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3525, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.826, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6756, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.9458, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 0.8817, "aerial_won": 0.2638, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1891, "tackles_won": 0.1608, "tackles": 0.2997, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.627, "won_contest": 0.0995, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1377, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7636, "total_progression": 26.5544, "progressive_carries": 0.5082, "shots_off_target": 0.1877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.699, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5599, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assist_rate": 0.078, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0333, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1063, "total_shots": 0.294, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 28.2245, "accurate_pass": 26.5016, "duels_won": 0.897, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3525, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.826, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6756, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.9458, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 0.8817, "aerial_won": 0.2638, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1891, "tackles_won": 0.1608, "tackles": 0.2997, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.627, "won_contest": 0.0995, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5599, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assist_rate": 0.078, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0333, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1063, "total_shots": 0.294, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 28.2245, "accurate_pass": 26.5016, "duels_won": 0.897, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3525, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.826, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6756, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.9458, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 0.8817, "aerial_won": 0.2638, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1891, "tackles_won": 0.1608, "tackles": 0.2997, "clearances": 0.1905, 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"weight_share": 0.0124, "finishing_factor": 1.0846, "appearance_weight": 0.699, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8511, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3121 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5599, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assist_rate": 0.078, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0333, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1063, "total_shots": 0.294, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 28.2245, "accurate_pass": 26.5016, "duels_won": 0.897, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3525, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.826, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8555, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0379, "finishing_factor": 1.0846, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.078, "provider_weight": 0.0488, "squad_weight_total": 1.3335, "weight_share": 0.0366, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.699, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.2482, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2482, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.23, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Floyd Samba": { "player_id": 1937970, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 75, "height": 183, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, 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"match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 22.8705, "expectedGoals": 0.0927, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 16.2496, "totalShots": 1.2515, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 18.4504 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06273633241653442, "model_output": 0.0627, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2767 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0987 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0236 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1929, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0886 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0062 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0042 } ], "others": -0.0217, "total": 0.0627, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.645586, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.614774 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.158193 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.07686 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.072751 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.047971 } ], "others_margin": -0.298181 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09419195353984833, "model_output": 0.0942, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1491 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0805 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.056 }, { "name": 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"totalShots", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5269, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2318 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0199, "total": 0.2293, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.640773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.579628 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.079046 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.076808 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.0487 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.03556 } ], "others_margin": -0.083477 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8006112575531006, "model_output": 0.8006, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0526 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0309 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0307 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3756, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4631 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.116 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0634 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.05 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0368 } ], "others": -0.0461, "total": 0.8006, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.375643, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.463148 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.115994 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.063421 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.050044 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.036841 } ], "others_margin": -0.046108 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07779586315155029, "model_output": 0.0778, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1287 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0029 } ], "others": 0.0182, "total": 0.0778, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.359281 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.157239 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.13498 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.069428 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.050557 } ], "others_margin": 0.265591 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.855379581451416, "model_output": 0.8554, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2453 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0889 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0612 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0515 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0346 } ], "others": 0.1728, "total": 0.8554, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.437911 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.181551 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.108251 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.082743 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.05207 } ], "others_margin": 0.225671 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.797661781311035, "model_output": 6.7977, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0813 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": 0.0156, "total": 6.7977, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.081311 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.025966 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.02328 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022062 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.018668 } ], "others_margin": 0.015662 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.886)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0635, "goals": 0.0953, "goal_rate": 0.0953, "shots_on_target": 0.2319, "total_shots": 0.81, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8654, "rating": 6.7977, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 26.1947, "accurate_pass": 23.1381, "duels_won": 2.7499, "total_long_balls": 0.5277, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0805, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4397, "crosses_total": 1.9856, "crosses_accurate": 0.3234, "touches": 41.4942, "possession_lost": 10.7957, "dispossessed": 1.6785, "duels_lost": 5.4974, "aerial_lost": 0.5479, "total_contest": 2.9048, "won_contest": 1.0061, "ball_recovery": 2.2398, "challenges_lost": 0.4249, "fouls": 1.0782, "fouls_drawn": 0.5359, "assists": 0.2641, "assist_rate": 0.2641, "interceptions": 0.2495, "tackles_won": 0.4882, "tackles": 0.9046, "clearances": 0.2546, "blocks": 0.0808, "big_chances_created": 0.3516, "big_chances_missed": 0.0122, "xgot": 0.1491, "offsides": 0.7621, "ball_carries": 17.6292, "total_progression": 86.3511, "progressive_carries": 4.5486, "shots_off_target": 0.578 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 85000000, "quality_factor": 0.8859, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0635, "goals": 0.0945, "goal_rate": 0.0945, "shots_on_target": 0.2316, "total_shots": 0.8054, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8654, "rating": 6.7977, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 26.1947, "accurate_pass": 23.1381, "duels_won": 2.7499, "total_long_balls": 0.5277, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0805, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4397, "crosses_total": 1.9724, "crosses_accurate": 0.3234, "touches": 41.4942, "possession_lost": 10.7957, "dispossessed": 1.6785, "duels_lost": 5.4974, "aerial_lost": 0.5479, "total_contest": 2.9048, "won_contest": 1.0061, "ball_recovery": 2.2398, "challenges_lost": 0.4249, "fouls": 1.0713, "fouls_drawn": 0.5346, "assists": 0.2626, "assist_rate": 0.2626, "interceptions": 0.2473, "tackles_won": 0.4848, "tackles": 0.9046, "clearances": 0.2546, "blocks": 0.0808, "big_chances_created": 0.3516, "big_chances_missed": 0.0122, "xgot": 0.1491, "offsides": 0.7571, "ball_carries": 17.6292, "total_progression": 86.3511, "progressive_carries": 4.5486, "shots_off_target": 0.578 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1963, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.9856, "after": 1.9724 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0782, "after": 1.0713 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.7621, "after": 0.7571 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.37)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goals": 0.1417, "goal_rate": 0.1417, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 1.2144, "expected_assists": 0.1181, "key_pass": 1.2981, "rating": 6.7977, "minutes": 27.07, "total_pass": 39.2921, "accurate_pass": 34.7071, "duels_won": 4.1248, "total_long_balls": 0.7915, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1207, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.9994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6595, "crosses_total": 2.9586, "crosses_accurate": 0.4851, "touches": 62.2413, "possession_lost": 16.1936, "dispossessed": 1.6785, "duels_lost": 8.2461, "aerial_lost": 0.5479, "total_contest": 4.3572, "won_contest": 1.5091, "ball_recovery": 3.3597, "challenges_lost": 0.4249, "fouls": 1.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.8019, "assists": 0.3939, "assist_rate": 0.3939, "interceptions": 0.371, "tackles_won": 0.7272, "tackles": 1.3569, "clearances": 0.3819, "blocks": 0.1212, "big_chances_created": 0.5274, "big_chances_missed": 0.0183, "xgot": 0.2237, "offsides": 0.7571, "ball_carries": 26.4438, "total_progression": 129.5267, "progressive_carries": 6.8229, "shots_off_target": 0.867, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.07 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.07, "projection_minutes": 17.67, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.37 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goals": 0.1417, "goal_rate": 0.1417, "shots_on_target": 0.3474, "total_shots": 1.2144, "expected_assists": 0.1181, "key_pass": 1.2981, "rating": 6.7977, "minutes": 27.07, "total_pass": 39.2921, "accurate_pass": 34.7071, "duels_won": 4.1248, "total_long_balls": 0.7915, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1207, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.9994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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"total": 1.0087, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.482083 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.178754 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.134754 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.081878 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.071301 } ], "others_margin": 0.392623 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.41000509262085, "model_output": 7.41, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1753 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1267 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.111 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0137, quality 0.871)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0755, "goals": 0.1817, "goal_rate": 0.1817, "shots_on_target": 0.2909, "total_shots": 1.0324, "expected_assists": 0.1345, "key_pass": 1.0225, "rating": 7.41, "minutes": 23.06, "total_pass": 12.8427, "accurate_pass": 10.576, "duels_won": 2.9129, "total_long_balls": 0.3761, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2017, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9781, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7586, "crosses_total": 0.9478, "crosses_accurate": 0.2207, "touches": 21.9042, "possession_lost": 6.1744, "dispossessed": 0.7542, "duels_lost": 2.2092, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 2.7977, "won_contest": 1.6881, "ball_recovery": 0.7864, "challenges_lost": 0.0471, "fouls": 0.2605, "fouls_drawn": 1.1009, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0872, "tackles_won": 0.1239, "tackles": 0.1239, "clearances": 0.147, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.32, "big_chances_missed": 0.0526, "xgot": 0.1193, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.3685, "total_progression": 91.0141, "progressive_carries": 5.0206, "shots_off_target": 0.7415 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 70000000, "quality_factor": 0.8707, "boost_factor": 1.0137, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0884, "goals": 0.2128, "goal_rate": 0.2128, "shots_on_target": 0.3407, "total_shots": 1.2091, "expected_assists": 0.1575, "key_pass": 1.1976, "rating": 7.41, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0414, "accurate_pass": 12.3866, "duels_won": 3.4116, "total_long_balls": 0.4405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2362, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2581, "crosses_total": 1.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.2585, "touches": 25.6542, "possession_lost": 7.2315, "dispossessed": 0.7542, "duels_lost": 2.5874, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2767, "won_contest": 1.9771, "ball_recovery": 0.921, "challenges_lost": 0.0471, "fouls": 0.3051, "fouls_drawn": 1.2894, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1021, "tackles_won": 0.1451, "tackles": 0.1451, "clearances": 0.1722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3748, "big_chances_missed": 0.0616, "xgot": 0.1397, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1436, "total_progression": 106.5959, "progressive_carries": 5.8801, "shots_off_target": 0.8684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.01, "projection_minutes": 23.06, "minutes_scale": 1.1712, "appearance_probability": 0.637 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0884, "goals": 0.2128, "goal_rate": 0.2128, "shots_on_target": 0.3407, "total_shots": 1.2091, "expected_assists": 0.1575, "key_pass": 1.1976, "rating": 7.41, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0414, "accurate_pass": 12.3866, "duels_won": 3.4116, "total_long_balls": 0.4405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2362, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2581, "crosses_total": 1.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.2585, "touches": 25.6542, "possession_lost": 7.2315, "dispossessed": 0.7542, "duels_lost": 2.5874, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2767, "won_contest": 1.9771, "ball_recovery": 0.921, "challenges_lost": 0.0471, "fouls": 0.3051, "fouls_drawn": 1.2894, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1021, "tackles_won": 0.1451, "tackles": 0.1451, "clearances": 0.1722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3748, "big_chances_missed": 0.0616, "xgot": 0.1397, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1436, "total_progression": 106.5959, "progressive_carries": 5.8801, "shots_off_target": 0.8684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.2128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3407, "total_shots": 1.2091, "expected_assists": 0.1575, "key_pass": 1.1976, "rating": 7.41, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0414, "accurate_pass": 12.3866, "duels_won": 3.4116, "total_long_balls": 0.4405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2362, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2581, "crosses_total": 1.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.2585, "touches": 25.6542, "possession_lost": 7.2315, "dispossessed": 0.7542, "duels_lost": 2.5874, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2767, "won_contest": 1.9771, "ball_recovery": 0.921, "challenges_lost": 0.0471, "fouls": 0.3051, "fouls_drawn": 1.2894, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1021, "tackles_won": 0.1451, "tackles": 0.1451, "clearances": 0.1722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3748, "big_chances_missed": 0.0616, "xgot": 0.1397, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1436, "total_progression": 106.5959, "progressive_carries": 5.8801, "shots_off_target": 0.8684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.458, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.4796, xG scale 1.2030, xA scale 1.1857, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0677, "goal_rate": 0.2128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3407, "total_shots": 1.2091, "expected_assists": 0.119, "key_pass": 1.1976, "rating": 7.41, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0414, "accurate_pass": 12.3866, "duels_won": 3.4116, "total_long_balls": 0.4405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2362, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2581, "crosses_total": 1.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.2585, "touches": 25.6542, "possession_lost": 7.2315, "dispossessed": 0.7542, "duels_lost": 2.5874, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2767, "won_contest": 1.9771, "ball_recovery": 0.921, "challenges_lost": 0.0471, "fouls": 0.3051, "fouls_drawn": 1.2894, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1021, "tackles_won": 0.1451, "tackles": 0.1451, "clearances": 0.1722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3748, "big_chances_missed": 0.0616, "xgot": 0.1071, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1436, "total_progression": 106.5959, "progressive_carries": 5.8801, "shots_off_target": 0.8684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.458, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.78, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4796, "squad_xa_sum": 1.201, "team_expected_assists": 1.424, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.203, "xa_scale": 1.1857, "opponent_lambda": 1.067, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0884, "after": 0.0677 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1575, "after": 0.119 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 0.0281, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.499917 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.206234 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.202859 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.088991 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.054379 } ], "others_margin": -0.16207 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.08967122435569763, "model_output": 0.0897, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", 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"importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3289 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2674 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.052 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0322 } ], "others": -0.1254, "total": 0.2467, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.328857 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.267358 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.051995 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.036257 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.032163 } ], "others_margin": -0.125548 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.79066276550293, "model_output": 6.7907, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1125 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0126 } ], "others": 0.0295, "total": 6.7907, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.112508 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.049246 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029547 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016029 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.012561 } ], "others_margin": 0.029536 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0015, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4693, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assists": 0.0659, "assist_rate": 0.0659, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goals": 0.0281, "goal_rate": 0.0281, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.2471, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 18.55, "total_pass": 23.6586, "accurate_pass": 22.2144, "duels_won": 0.7519, "total_long_balls": 0.632, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 7.8535, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.3982, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8052, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.8162, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7779, "possession_lost": 2.6796, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 0.7391, "aerial_won": 0.2211, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1597, "tackles_won": 0.1358, "tackles": 0.2512, "clearances": 0.1597, "total_contest": 0.5256, "won_contest": 0.0834, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1962, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1154, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6988, "total_progression": 22.2587, "progressive_carries": 0.426, "shots_off_target": 0.1573 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9700000, "quality_factor": 0.5189, "boost_factor": 1.0015, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0077)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4693, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assists": 0.0654, "assist_rate": 0.0654, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0279, "shots_on_target": 0.0891, "total_shots": 0.2452, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 18.55, "total_pass": 23.6586, "accurate_pass": 22.2144, "duels_won": 0.7519, "total_long_balls": 0.632, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2955, "total_own_half_passes": 7.8535, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.3982, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8052, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.8162, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7779, "possession_lost": 2.6796, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 0.7391, "aerial_won": 0.2211, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1585, "tackles_won": 0.1348, "tackles": 0.2512, "clearances": 0.1597, "total_contest": 0.5256, "won_contest": 0.0834, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1154, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6988, "total_progression": 22.2587, "progressive_carries": 0.426, "shots_off_target": 0.1573 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0077, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2061, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection 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0.1377, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7636, "total_progression": 26.5544, "progressive_carries": 0.5082, "shots_off_target": 0.1877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.699, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.13, "projection_minutes": 18.55, "minutes_scale": 1.193, "appearance_probability": 0.699 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5599, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assists": 0.078, "assist_rate": 0.078, "expected_goals": 0.0268, "goals": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0333, "shots_on_target": 0.1063, "total_shots": 0.294, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 28.2245, "accurate_pass": 26.5016, "duels_won": 0.897, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3525, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.826, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6756, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.9458, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 0.8817, "aerial_won": 0.2638, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1891, "tackles_won": 0.1608, "tackles": 0.2997, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.627, "won_contest": 0.0995, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1377, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7636, "total_progression": 26.5544, "progressive_carries": 0.5082, "shots_off_target": 0.1877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.699, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5599, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.078, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0268, "goal_rate": 0.0333, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1063, "total_shots": 0.294, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 28.2245, "accurate_pass": 26.5016, "duels_won": 0.897, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3525, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.826, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6756, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.9458, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 0.8817, "aerial_won": 0.2638, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1891, "tackles_won": 0.1608, "tackles": 0.2997, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.627, "won_contest": 0.0995, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1377, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7636, "total_progression": 26.5544, "progressive_carries": 0.5082, "shots_off_target": 0.1877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.699, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.458, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.4796, xG scale 1.2030, xA scale 1.1857, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5599, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assist_rate": 0.078, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0333, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1063, "total_shots": 0.294, "rating": 6.7907, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 28.2245, "accurate_pass": 26.5016, "duels_won": 0.897, "total_long_balls": 0.754, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3525, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.826, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6756, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.9458, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 0.8817, "aerial_won": 0.2638, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1891, "tackles_won": 0.1608, "tackles": 0.2997, "clearances": 0.1905, "total_contest": 0.627, "won_contest": 0.0995, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1377, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.7636, "total_progression": 26.5544, "progressive_carries": 0.5082, "shots_off_target": 0.1877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.699, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.458, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0846, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.78, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4796, "squad_xa_sum": 1.201, "team_expected_assists": 1.424, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.203, "xa_scale": 1.1857, "opponent_lambda": 1.067, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.699 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.047, "after": 0.039 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.5269, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2281 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0168, "total": 0.2869, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.640773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.567142 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.091521 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.070181 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.041341 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.036387 } ], "others_margin": -0.057012 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0184539556503296, "model_output": 1.0185, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0526 }, { 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"keyPass", "predicted": 1.0086780786514282, "model_output": 1.0087, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2646 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0836 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0737 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0499 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0469 } ], "others": 0.3275, "total": 1.0087, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.482083 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.178754 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.134754 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.081878 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.071301 } ], "others_margin": 0.392623 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.41000509262085, "model_output": 7.41, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1753 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1267 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.111 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0718 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0652 } ], "others": 0.3401, "total": 7.41, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.175336 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.126652 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.110986 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.071819 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.06521 } ], "others_margin": 0.339971 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0137, quality 0.871)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0755, "goals": 0.1817, "goal_rate": 0.1817, "shots_on_target": 0.2909, "total_shots": 1.0324, "expected_assists": 0.1345, "key_pass": 1.0225, "rating": 7.41, "minutes": 23.06, "total_pass": 12.8427, "accurate_pass": 10.576, "duels_won": 2.9129, "total_long_balls": 0.3761, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2017, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9781, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7586, "crosses_total": 0.9478, "crosses_accurate": 0.2207, "touches": 21.9042, "possession_lost": 6.1744, "dispossessed": 0.7542, "duels_lost": 2.2092, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 2.7977, "won_contest": 1.6881, "ball_recovery": 0.7864, "challenges_lost": 0.0471, "fouls": 0.2605, "fouls_drawn": 1.1009, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0872, "tackles_won": 0.1239, "tackles": 0.1239, "clearances": 0.147, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.32, "big_chances_missed": 0.0526, "xgot": 0.1193, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.3685, "total_progression": 91.0141, "progressive_carries": 5.0206, "shots_off_target": 0.7415 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 70000000, "quality_factor": 0.8707, "boost_factor": 1.0137, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0884, "goals": 0.2128, "goal_rate": 0.2128, "shots_on_target": 0.3407, "total_shots": 1.2091, "expected_assists": 0.1575, "key_pass": 1.1976, "rating": 7.41, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0414, "accurate_pass": 12.3866, "duels_won": 3.4116, "total_long_balls": 0.4405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2362, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2581, "crosses_total": 1.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.2585, "touches": 25.6542, "possession_lost": 7.2315, "dispossessed": 0.7542, "duels_lost": 2.5874, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2767, "won_contest": 1.9771, "ball_recovery": 0.921, "challenges_lost": 0.0471, "fouls": 0.3051, "fouls_drawn": 1.2894, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1021, "tackles_won": 0.1451, "tackles": 0.1451, "clearances": 0.1722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3748, "big_chances_missed": 0.0616, "xgot": 0.1397, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1436, "total_progression": 106.5959, "progressive_carries": 5.8801, "shots_off_target": 0.8684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.01, "projection_minutes": 23.06, "minutes_scale": 1.1712, "appearance_probability": 0.637 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0884, "goals": 0.2128, "goal_rate": 0.2128, "shots_on_target": 0.3407, "total_shots": 1.2091, "expected_assists": 0.1575, "key_pass": 1.1976, "rating": 7.41, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0414, "accurate_pass": 12.3866, "duels_won": 3.4116, "total_long_balls": 0.4405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2362, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2581, "crosses_total": 1.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.2585, "touches": 25.6542, "possession_lost": 7.2315, "dispossessed": 0.7542, "duels_lost": 2.5874, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2767, "won_contest": 1.9771, "ball_recovery": 0.921, "challenges_lost": 0.0471, "fouls": 0.3051, "fouls_drawn": 1.2894, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1021, "tackles_won": 0.1451, "tackles": 0.1451, "clearances": 0.1722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3748, "big_chances_missed": 0.0616, "xgot": 0.1397, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1436, "total_progression": 106.5959, "progressive_carries": 5.8801, "shots_off_target": 0.8684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.2128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3407, "total_shots": 1.2091, "expected_assists": 0.1575, "key_pass": 1.1976, "rating": 7.41, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0414, "accurate_pass": 12.3866, "duels_won": 3.4116, "total_long_balls": 0.4405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2362, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2581, "crosses_total": 1.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.2585, "touches": 25.6542, "possession_lost": 7.2315, "dispossessed": 0.7542, "duels_lost": 2.5874, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2767, "won_contest": 1.9771, "ball_recovery": 0.921, "challenges_lost": 0.0471, "fouls": 0.3051, "fouls_drawn": 1.2894, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1021, "tackles_won": 0.1451, "tackles": 0.1451, "clearances": 0.1722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3748, "big_chances_missed": 0.0616, "xgot": 0.1397, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1436, "total_progression": 106.5959, "progressive_carries": 5.8801, "shots_off_target": 0.8684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.458, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.78 (squad xG sum 1.4796, xG scale 1.2030, xA scale 1.1857, team xA 1.42 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0677, "goal_rate": 0.2128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3407, "total_shots": 1.2091, "expected_assists": 0.119, "key_pass": 1.1976, "rating": 7.41, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0414, "accurate_pass": 12.3866, "duels_won": 3.4116, "total_long_balls": 0.4405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2362, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2581, "crosses_total": 1.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.2585, "touches": 25.6542, "possession_lost": 7.2315, "dispossessed": 0.7542, "duels_lost": 2.5874, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2767, "won_contest": 1.9771, "ball_recovery": 0.921, "challenges_lost": 0.0471, "fouls": 0.3051, "fouls_drawn": 1.2894, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1021, "tackles_won": 0.1451, "tackles": 0.1451, "clearances": 0.1722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3748, "big_chances_missed": 0.0616, "xgot": 0.1071, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1436, "total_progression": 106.5959, "progressive_carries": 5.8801, "shots_off_target": 0.8684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.458, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.78, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4796, "squad_xa_sum": 1.201, "team_expected_assists": 1.424, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.203, "xa_scale": 1.1857, "opponent_lambda": 1.067, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0884, "after": 0.0677 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1575, "after": 0.119 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0677, "goal_rate": 0.2128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3407, "total_shots": 1.2091, "expected_assists": 0.119, "key_pass": 1.1976, "rating": 7.41, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0414, "accurate_pass": 12.3866, "duels_won": 3.4116, "total_long_balls": 0.4405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2362, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2581, "crosses_total": 1.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.2585, "touches": 25.6542, "possession_lost": 7.2315, "dispossessed": 0.7542, "duels_lost": 2.5874, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2767, "won_contest": 1.9771, "ball_recovery": 0.921, "challenges_lost": 0.0471, "fouls": 0.3051, "fouls_drawn": 1.2894, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1021, "tackles_won": 0.1451, "tackles": 0.1451, "clearances": 0.1722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3748, "big_chances_missed": 0.0616, "xgot": 0.1071, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1436, "total_progression": 106.5959, "progressive_carries": 5.8801, "shots_off_target": 0.8684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.458, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 111, "fifa_rank": 204.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0677, "goal_rate": 0.2128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3407, "total_shots": 1.2091, "expected_assists": 0.119, "key_pass": 1.1976, "rating": 7.41, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0414, "accurate_pass": 12.3866, "duels_won": 3.4116, "total_long_balls": 0.4405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2362, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2581, "crosses_total": 1.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.2585, "touches": 25.6542, "possession_lost": 7.2315, "dispossessed": 0.7542, "duels_lost": 2.5874, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2767, "won_contest": 1.9771, "ball_recovery": 0.921, "challenges_lost": 0.0471, "fouls": 0.3051, "fouls_drawn": 1.2894, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1021, "tackles_won": 0.1451, "tackles": 0.1451, "clearances": 0.1722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3748, "big_chances_missed": 0.0616, "xgot": 0.1071, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1436, "total_progression": 106.5959, "progressive_carries": 5.8801, "shots_off_target": 0.8684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.458, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0642, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0642, "goal_rate": 0.2128, "scorer_weight": 0.0846, "squad_weight_total": 1.9743, "weight_share": 0.0429, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8511, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8511, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3121 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0677, "goal_rate": 0.2128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3407, "total_shots": 1.2091, "expected_assists": 0.119, "key_pass": 1.1976, "rating": 7.41, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 15.0414, "accurate_pass": 12.3866, "duels_won": 3.4116, "total_long_balls": 0.4405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2362, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2581, "crosses_total": 1.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.2585, "touches": 25.6542, "possession_lost": 7.2315, "dispossessed": 0.7542, "duels_lost": 2.5874, "aerial_lost": 0.0718, "total_contest": 3.2767, "won_contest": 1.9771, "ball_recovery": 0.921, "challenges_lost": 0.0471, "fouls": 0.3051, "fouls_drawn": 1.2894, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1021, "tackles_won": 0.1451, "tackles": 0.1451, "clearances": 0.1722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3748, "big_chances_missed": 0.0616, "xgot": 0.1071, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1436, "total_progression": 106.5959, "progressive_carries": 5.8801, "shots_off_target": 0.8684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.458, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0642, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1085, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1085, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0952, "squad_weight_total": 1.3335, "weight_share": 0.0714, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.2482, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2482, "runner_up": "Phil Foden", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.23, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.78, "expected_assists": 1.42, "total_shots": 17, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 652, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 7.06, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Liam Delap", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Matheus Nunes", "Rúben Dias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.818, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2672, "xg_multiplier": 0.9391, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matheus Nunes", "role": "CB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Liam Delap (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Matheus Nunes and Rúben Dias in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.267 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Dan Ndoye", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 34000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.746, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Matheus Nunes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.846, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.225, "xg_contribution": 0.2354, "xg_multiplier": 0.9338, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 109000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.775 }, { "player": "Matheus Nunes", "role": "CB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.775 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dan Ndoye (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Elliot Anderson and Matheus Nunes in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. The quality gap is significant (€34M vs €76M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.235 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Igor Jesus", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Matheus Nunes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.846, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2446, "xg_multiplier": 0.8649, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 109000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Matheus Nunes", "role": "CB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Jesus (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Elliot Anderson and Matheus Nunes in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €76M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.245 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "James McAtee", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 19800000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.629, "defenders": [ "Abdukodir Khusanov" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.813, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "xg_contribution": 0.0677, "xg_multiplier": 0.8576, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "role": "RB", "market_value": 47000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 } ], "duel_analysis": "James McAtee (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Abdukodir Khusanov in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€20M vs €47M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Xaver Schlager", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 14200000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.57, "defenders": [ "Marc Guéhi" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.872, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "xg_contribution": 0.0444, "xg_multiplier": 0.781, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Guéhi", "role": "LB", "market_value": 71000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749 } ], "duel_analysis": "Xaver Schlager (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marc Guéhi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€14M vs €71M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 76000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.878, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.896, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "xg_contribution": 0.2309, "xg_multiplier": 0.9445, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 109000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.588 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Gibbs-White (CM) is evenly matched against Elliot Anderson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€76M vs €109M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.231 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.896, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.369, "xg_contribution": 0.0976, "xg_multiplier": 0.8804, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 109000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.631 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Muñoz (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Elliot Anderson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €109M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.098 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Enzo Fernández", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 116000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Murillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "xg_contribution": 0.1615, "xg_multiplier": 0.987, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.589 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Fernández (LW) is evenly matched against Murillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€116M vs €49M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.161 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Rayan Cherki", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 120000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.898, "defenders": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.878, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "xg_contribution": 0.2076, "xg_multiplier": 1.0378, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "role": "CM", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.554 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan Cherki (CAM) is evenly matched against Morgan Gibbs-White in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€120M vs €76M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.208 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Phil Foden", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 62000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.857, "defenders": [ "Murillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.369, "xg_contribution": 0.1313, "xg_multiplier": 0.9252, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.631 } ], "duel_analysis": "Phil Foden (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Murillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.131 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Erling Haaland", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 240000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Murillo", "Neco Williams" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.765, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "xg_contribution": 0.6263, "xg_multiplier": 1.1245, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.715 }, { "player": "Neco Williams", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.715 } ], "duel_analysis": "Erling Haaland (ST) is slightly favored against Murillo and Neco Williams in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€240M vs €39M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.626 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.709, "away_midfield_power": 0.938, "home_creative_power": 0.867, "away_creative_power": 0.968, "home_defensive_power": 0.707, "away_defensive_power": 0.759, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.431, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White", "James McAtee", "Xaver Schlager", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Enzo Fernández", "Rayan Cherki", "Phil Foden", "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.3, "home_throughball_threat": 3.2, "away_throughball_threat": 3.5, "key_personal_duel": "Morgan Gibbs-White vs Rayan Cherki", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.989, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.026 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.067, "away_lambda": 1.78, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CAM vs CM" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Liam Delap": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Nunes", "Rúben Dias" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dan Ndoye": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Matheus Nunes" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Igor Jesus": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Matheus Nunes" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "James McAtee": { "opponents": [ "Abdukodir Khusanov", "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Xaver Schlager": { "opponents": [ "Marc Guéhi", "Enzo Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morgan Gibbs-White": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Rayan Cherki", "Phil Foden" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Murillo": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Fernández", "Phil Foden", "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Neco Williams": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matz Sels": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ola Aina": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Matheus Nunes": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap", "Dan Ndoye", "Igor Jesus" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rúben Dias": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Elliot Anderson": { "opponents": [ "Dan Ndoye", "Igor Jesus", "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdukodir Khusanov": { "opponents": [ "James McAtee" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Guéhi": { "opponents": [ "Xaver Schlager" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Enzo Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "Xaver Schlager" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rayan Cherki": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Phil Foden": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Erling Haaland": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "Neco Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ayyoub Bouaddi": { "opponents": [ "James McAtee" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Gianluigi Donnarumma": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Morgan Gibbs-White vs Rayan Cherki). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.19, Away: 1.13. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0071, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0317, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8736, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9242, "home_midfield_factor": 0.989, "away_midfield_factor": 1.026, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7057, "away_avg_quality": 0.866, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1603, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.066, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.0814, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.1461, "elite_count_gap": -8, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3929, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2161, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1257, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.1878, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2533 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.989, "result": 1.2396 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.1776 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.5299 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8691, "result": 1.3297 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8584, "result": 1.1413 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8736, "result": 0.997 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0317, "result": 1.0287 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0287, "result": 1.0287, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3929, "factor": 0.8743, "pre": 1.0287, "result": 0.8994 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8994 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1466, "result": 1.0456 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.069, "result": 1.2421 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2421, "result": 1.242, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.242 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 1.242, "result": 1.2065, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9707, "pre": 1.2065, "result": 1.171 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.171 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9474, "input_total": 3.349, "result": 1.1094 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.1094, "result": 1.109, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.067 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.1267, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.2334 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.026, "result": 1.2655 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.3287 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3287 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1055, "result": 1.4689 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0071, "result": 1.4793 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9242, "result": 1.3672 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.5472 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.5472, "result": 1.5472, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3929, "factor": 1.2161, "pre": 1.5472, "result": 1.8815 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.8815 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.2046, "result": 2.0866 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.069, "result": 2.0832 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.0832, "result": 2.083, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.083 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 2.083, "result": 2.1426, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1032, "pre": 2.1426, "result": 2.364 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 2.364 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9474, "input_total": 3.349, "result": 2.2396 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 2.2396, "result": 2.24, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.78 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1466, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2046, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Nottingham Forest", "away_squad": "Manchester City", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3929, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1032, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9707, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.2065, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.1426, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.171, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 2.364, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2421, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.0832, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.067, "final_away_lambda": 1.78 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8691, "attack_index": 0.819, "defense_concede_index": 0.877, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.12, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.2, "team_ppg": 0.94, "opponent_ppg": 1.94 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1055, "attack_index": 1.209, "defense_concede_index": 1.038, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.66, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.42, "team_ppg": 1.94, "opponent_ppg": 0.94 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Forest vs Man City. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.242, Away 2.083). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.067, Away 1.780 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Nottingham Forest", "away_squad": "Manchester City", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.067, "away_lambda": 1.78, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.242, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 2.083 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:33:19Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }