{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261107", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0927, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0927, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0775, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Fulham", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2538, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.12 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0927 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0899 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0775 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0754 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0631, "0-1": 0.0775, "0-2": 0.0498, "0-3": 0.0211, "0-4": 0.0067, "0-5": 0.0017, "1-0": 0.0927, "1-1": 0.12, "1-2": 0.0754, "1-3": 0.0319, "1-4": 0.0101, "1-5": 0.0026, "1-6": 0.0005, "2-0": 0.0709, "2-1": 0.0899, "2-2": 0.057, "2-3": 0.0241, "2-4": 0.0076, "2-5": 0.0019, "3-0": 0.0358, "3-1": 0.0454, "3-2": 0.0288, "3-3": 0.0122, "3-4": 0.0039, "3-5": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0135, "4-1": 0.0172, "4-2": 0.0109, "4-3": 0.0046, "4-4": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0041, "5-1": 0.0052, "5-2": 0.0033, "5-3": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.001, "6-1": 0.0013, "6-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4287, "draw": 0.2538, "away_win": 0.3175 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.526, "under_2_5_goals": 0.474, "btts_yes": 0.5614, "btts_no": 0.4386, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2814, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2202 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.91, "MCR": 6.99, "ATR": 6.68, "GK": 6.96 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.93, "MCR": 6.91, "ATR": 6.92, "GK": 6.89 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Fulham vs Newcastle. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Fulham 3W-0D-7L vs Newcastle over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Gonzalo García", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Josh King vs Nico González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 0.61. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.66, "home_lambda": 1.513, "away_lambda": 1.268, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 3, "away_wins": 7, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 0.9714, "away_multiplier": 1.0286 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.12, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4287, "draw": 0.2538, "away_win": 0.3175 }, "favorite": "Fulham", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4287, "fair_spread": 0.245, "fair_total": 2.781, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.513, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.268, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5614, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2814, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2202, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Gonzalo García (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.3519, "probability": 0.2966, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.3507, "probability": 0.2958, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alex Iwobi (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.2557, "probability": 0.2256, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.1496, "probability": 0.1389, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.781, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 1065, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.9, "possession_home_pct": 49.7, "possession_away_pct": 50.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Fulham", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4287, "script": "Fulham is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.24 goals and fair total 2.78.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Newcastle must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Fulham lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Fulham chance creation leans on Gonzalo García against Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Fulham: starters carry the main goal usage through Gonzalo García; bench watchlist: Kevin, Hugo Larsson, Ryan Sessegnon.", "Newcastle: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Matías Fernández-Pardo, Bazoumana Touré, Aladji Bamba.", "Assist usage should flow through Alex Iwobi; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Fulham tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Newcastle is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Fulham.", "Newcastle wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Fulham": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bernd Leno": { "player_id": 103335, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 190, "market_value": 5500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0179, "rating": 6.9628, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "total_long_balls": 11, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 47, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.4505, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 7.5335, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1922, "shots_faced": 12.0, "expected_saves": 2.93, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes, Joe Willock", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363901.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.3836 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363894.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965.0, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1642 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1549, "combined_rank_score": 633.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 416.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9263, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 850.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9628, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bernd Leno", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alisher Salimov", "ranking": 1544 }, { "player_name": "Bu-Seong Jang", "ranking": 1545 }, { "player_name": "Her Dong-min", "ranking": 1546 }, { "player_name": "Filip Jørgensen", "ranking": 1547 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Boscagli", "ranking": 1548 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fredrik Aursnes", "ranking": 1550 }, { "player_name": "Yuri Berchiche", "ranking": 1551 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Trejo", "ranking": 1552 }, { "player_name": "Han Jong-Mu", "ranking": 1553 }, { "player_name": "Eli Junior Kroupi", "ranking": 1554 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 47, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 47, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", 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}, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0783, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 28.6697, "accurateLongBalls": 3.5387, "possessionLostCtrl": 7.5418, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.1256, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.4333, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.9073 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.747403144836426, "model_output": 2.7474, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0571 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0151 } ], "others": -0.0411, "total": 2.7474, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.019744 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.017189 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.01108 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.006621 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.005415 } ], "others_margin": -0.014812 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.017883319407701492, "model_output": 0.0179, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0012, "total": 0.0179, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016757 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.016686 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.013282 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.011841 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011151 } ], "others_margin": -0.001244 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.962800979614258, "model_output": 6.9628, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 6.9628, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015753 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.014778 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.013299 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.012327 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.011052 } ], "others_margin": -0.011309 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 47, "role_matches": 47, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9989, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7444, "goals_prevented": 0.0179, "rating": 6.9628, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.6867, "accurate_pass": 31.1868, "total_long_balls": 10.767, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5348, "touches": 47.0427, "clearances": 1.0872, "ball_recovery": 8.1749, "high_claims": 0.574, "punches": 0.4505, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "sweeper_actions": 0.9063, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9063, "saves_inside_box": 1.4974, "possession_lost": 7.5335, "duels_won": 0.1959, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0327, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6383 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5500000, "quality_factor": 0.4683, "boost_factor": 0.9989, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 47, "history_shrink": 0.0962, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0083)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7465, "goals_prevented": 0.0179, "rating": 6.9628, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.6867, "accurate_pass": 31.1868, "total_long_balls": 10.767, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5348, "touches": 47.0427, "clearances": 1.0872, "ball_recovery": 8.1749, "high_claims": 0.574, "punches": 0.4505, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "sweeper_actions": 0.9063, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9063, "saves_inside_box": 1.4974, "possession_lost": 7.5335, "duels_won": 0.1959, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0324, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6383 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0083, "history_matches": 47, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.7465, "goals_prevented": 0.0179, "rating": 6.9628, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.6867, "accurate_pass": 31.1868, "total_long_balls": 10.767, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5348, "touches": 47.0427, "clearances": 1.0872, "ball_recovery": 8.1749, "high_claims": 0.574, "punches": 0.4505, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "sweeper_actions": 0.9063, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9063, "saves_inside_box": 1.4974, "possession_lost": 7.5335, "duels_won": 0.1959, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0324, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6383 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7465, "goals_prevented": 0.0179, "rating": 6.9628, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.6867, "accurate_pass": 31.1868, "total_long_balls": 10.767, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5348, "touches": 47.0427, "clearances": 1.0872, "ball_recovery": 8.1749, "high_claims": 0.574, "punches": 0.4505, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "sweeper_actions": 0.9063, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9063, "saves_inside_box": 1.4974, "possession_lost": 7.5335, "duels_won": 0.1959, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0324, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6383, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1922, "shots_faced": 11.3, "expected_saves": 2.76, "high_pressure_saves": 0.95, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes, Joe Willock", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes, Joe Willock", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.1922 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.7465, "goals_prevented": 0.0179, "rating": 6.9628, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.6867, "accurate_pass": 31.1868, "total_long_balls": 10.767, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5348, "touches": 47.0427, "clearances": 1.0872, "ball_recovery": 8.1749, "high_claims": 0.574, "punches": 0.4505, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "sweeper_actions": 0.9063, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9063, "saves_inside_box": 1.4974, "possession_lost": 7.5335, "duels_won": 0.1959, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0324, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6383, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1922, "shots_faced": 11.3, "expected_saves": 2.76, "high_pressure_saves": 0.95, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes, Joe Willock", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1733, xG scale 1.2895, xA scale 1.2895, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7465, "goals_prevented": 0.0179, "rating": 6.9628, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.6867, "accurate_pass": 31.1868, "total_long_balls": 10.767, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5348, "touches": 47.0427, "clearances": 1.0872, "ball_recovery": 8.1749, "high_claims": 0.574, "punches": 0.4505, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "sweeper_actions": 0.9063, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9063, "saves_inside_box": 1.4974, "possession_lost": 7.5335, "duels_won": 0.1959, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0324, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6383, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1922, "shots_faced": 12.0, "expected_saves": 2.93, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes, Joe Willock", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.513, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1733, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9264, "team_expected_assists": 1.1946, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7896, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2895, "xa_scale": 1.2895, "opponent_lambda": 1.268, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.3, "after": 12.0 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.76, "after": 2.93 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.95, "after": 1.01 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7465, "goals_prevented": 0.0179, "rating": 6.9628, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.6867, "accurate_pass": 31.1868, "total_long_balls": 10.767, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5348, "touches": 47.0427, "clearances": 1.0872, "ball_recovery": 8.1749, "high_claims": 0.574, "punches": 0.4505, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "sweeper_actions": 0.9063, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9063, "saves_inside_box": 1.4974, "possession_lost": 7.5335, "duels_won": 0.1959, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0324, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6383, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1922, "shots_faced": 12.0, "expected_saves": 2.93, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes, Joe Willock", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1549, "fifa_rank": 850.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7465, "goals_prevented": 0.0179, "rating": 6.9628, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.6867, "accurate_pass": 31.1868, "total_long_balls": 10.767, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5348, "touches": 47.0427, "clearances": 1.0872, "ball_recovery": 8.1749, "high_claims": 0.574, "punches": 0.4505, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "sweeper_actions": 0.9063, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9063, "saves_inside_box": 1.4974, "possession_lost": 7.5335, "duels_won": 0.1959, "duels_lost": 0.0042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0324, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.6383, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1922, "shots_faced": 12.0, "expected_saves": 2.93, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes, Joe Willock", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4297, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonzalo García", "weight": 0.2876, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2876, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2518 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7465, "goals_prevented": 0.0179, "rating": 6.9628, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.6867, "accurate_pass": 31.1868, "total_long_balls": 10.767, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5348, "touches": 47.0427, "clearances": 1.0872, "ball_recovery": 8.1749, "high_claims": 0.574, "punches": 0.4505, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "sweeper_actions": 0.9063, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9063, "saves_inside_box": 1.4974, "possession_lost": 7.5335, "duels_won": 0.1959, "duels_lost": 0.0042, 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0.142 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0872 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0886 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0494 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0475 } ], "others": 0.0889, "total": 1.6795, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.098672 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.056074 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.05394 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.029691 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.02945 } ], "others_margin": 0.054375 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.595003068447113, "model_output": 0.595, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0566 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": -0.026, "total": 0.595, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056581 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.027381 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.025292 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.014538 } ], "others_margin": -0.026073 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.032637596130371, "model_output": 7.0326, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { 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minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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1.2675 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9079, "tackles": 1.4581, "tackles_won": 0.9234, "clearances": 4.3559, "aerial_won": 1.6913, "total_shots": 0.5982, "rating": 7.0326, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 70.6594, "accurate_pass": 63.494, "duels_won": 5.927, "total_long_balls": 6.5869, "accurate_long_balls": 3.198, "total_own_half_passes": 42.233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.3786, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4264, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.1154, "crosses_total": 0.2369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0084, "touches": 86.0269, "possession_lost": 9.9229, "dispossessed": 0.6081, "duels_lost": 3.6361, "aerial_lost": 1.2453, "total_contest": 0.8226, "won_contest": 0.3274, "ball_recovery": 3.3667, "challenges_lost": 0.0618, "fouls": 1.2675, "fouls_drawn": 1.7925, "blocks": 0.3654, "goals": 0.0046, "goal_rate": 0.0046, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0529, 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"opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9079, "tackles": 1.4581, "tackles_won": 0.9234, "clearances": 4.3559, "aerial_won": 1.6913, "total_shots": 0.5982, "rating": 7.0326, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 70.6594, "accurate_pass": 63.494, "duels_won": 5.927, "total_long_balls": 6.5869, "accurate_long_balls": 3.198, "total_own_half_passes": 42.233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.3786, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4264, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.1154, "crosses_total": 0.2369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0084, "touches": 86.0269, "possession_lost": 9.9229, "dispossessed": 0.6081, "duels_lost": 3.6361, "aerial_lost": 1.2453, "total_contest": 0.8226, "won_contest": 0.3274, 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"team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1733, xG scale 1.2895, xA scale 1.2895, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9079, "tackles": 1.4581, "tackles_won": 0.9234, "clearances": 4.3559, "aerial_won": 1.6913, "total_shots": 0.5982, "rating": 7.0326, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 70.6594, "accurate_pass": 63.494, "duels_won": 5.927, "total_long_balls": 6.5869, "accurate_long_balls": 3.198, "total_own_half_passes": 42.233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.3786, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.4264, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.1154, "crosses_total": 0.2369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0084, "touches": 86.0269, "possession_lost": 9.9229, "dispossessed": 0.6081, "duels_lost": 3.6361, "aerial_lost": 1.2453, "total_contest": 0.8226, "won_contest": 0.3274, "ball_recovery": 3.3667, "challenges_lost": 0.0618, "fouls": 1.2675, "fouls_drawn": 1.7925, 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1.1946, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7896, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2895, "xa_scale": 1.2895, "opponent_lambda": 1.268, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0529, "after": 0.0682 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.6304, "blocks": 0.2562, "goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0389, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "expected_assists": 0.0732, "shots_on_target": 0.1871, "big_chances_created": 0.1657, "xgot": 0.1249, "ball_carries": 13.9655, "total_progression": 75.1609, "progressive_carries": 2.1184, "key_pass": 1.0494, "shots_off_target": 0.3867 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1628, "tackles": 2.5287, "tackles_won": 1.6209, "clearances": 3.349, "aerial_won": 1.2154, "total_shots": 0.5753, "rating": 6.7885, "minutes": 87.44, "total_pass": 45.7814, "accurate_pass": 37.493, "duels_won": 4.6629, "total_long_balls": 2.7625, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2217, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.4874, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5177, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0057, "crosses_total": 3.6915, "crosses_accurate": 0.5012, "touches": 72.3959, "possession_lost": 16.0161, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 6.2022, "aerial_lost": 1.394, "total_contest": 1.2525, "won_contest": 0.473, "ball_recovery": 3.8039, "challenges_lost": 1.9539, "fouls": 1.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.6304, "blocks": 0.2562, "goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0389, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "expected_assists": 0.0732, "shots_on_target": 0.1871, "big_chances_created": 0.1657, "xgot": 0.1249, "ball_carries": 13.9655, "total_progression": 75.1609, "progressive_carries": 2.1184, "key_pass": 1.0494, "shots_off_target": 0.3867, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568, "opponent_faced": "Sean Steur", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sean Steur", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1628, "tackles": 2.5287, "tackles_won": 1.6209, "clearances": 3.349, "aerial_won": 1.2154, "total_shots": 0.5753, "rating": 6.7885, "minutes": 87.44, "total_pass": 45.7814, "accurate_pass": 37.493, "duels_won": 4.6629, "total_long_balls": 2.7625, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2217, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.4874, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5177, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0057, "crosses_total": 3.6915, "crosses_accurate": 0.5012, "touches": 72.3959, "possession_lost": 16.0161, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 6.2022, "aerial_lost": 1.394, "total_contest": 1.2525, "won_contest": 0.473, "ball_recovery": 3.8039, "challenges_lost": 1.9539, "fouls": 1.3896, "fouls_drawn": 0.6304, "blocks": 0.2562, "goal_rate": 0.0389, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "expected_assists": 0.0732, "shots_on_target": 0.1871, "big_chances_created": 0.1657, "xgot": 0.1249, "ball_carries": 13.9655, "total_progression": 75.1609, "progressive_carries": 2.1184, "key_pass": 1.0494, "shots_off_target": 0.3867, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568, "opponent_faced": "Sean Steur", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1861 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1681 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1314 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0908 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0759 } ], "others": -0.0386, "total": 1.9834, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.127396 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.102585 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.073445 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.047758 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.038257 } ], "others_margin": -0.019218 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7268346548080444, "model_output": 0.7268, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1305 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0513 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0238 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0208 } ], "others": 0.0339, "total": 0.7268, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.130467 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051301 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.026927 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.023846 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.020826 } ], "others_margin": 0.033871 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.021786212921143, "model_output": 7.0218, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0592 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0575 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0454, "total": 7.0218, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.059206 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.057522 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.026243 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.019109 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.015558 } ], "others_margin": 0.045368 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0032, quality 0.612)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3143, "tackles": 1.5051, "tackles_won": 0.8933, "clearances": 5.8399, "aerial_won": 1.9898, "total_shots": 0.7292, "rating": 7.0218, "minutes": 89.22, "total_pass": 73.7753, "accurate_pass": 65.2368, "duels_won": 4.1365, "total_long_balls": 6.5495, "accurate_long_balls": 1.864, "total_own_half_passes": 49.9204, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.2817, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.955, "crosses_total": 0.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.0183, "touches": 89.7653, "possession_lost": 9.586, "dispossessed": 0.0962, "duels_lost": 3.1427, "aerial_lost": 1.402, "total_contest": 0.3287, "won_contest": 0.2432, "ball_recovery": 4.058, "challenges_lost": 0.4506, "fouls": 1.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.4932, "blocks": 0.6538, "goals": 0.0141, "goal_rate": 0.0141, "assists": 0.0131, "assist_rate": 0.0131, "expected_goals": 0.0588, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "shots_on_target": 0.1854, "big_chances_created": 0.0346, "xgot": 0.0901, "ball_carries": 30.7454, "total_progression": 105.1888, "progressive_carries": 0.8719, "key_pass": 0.1885, "shots_off_target": 0.5437 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18100000, "quality_factor": 0.612, "boost_factor": 1.0032, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3143, "tackles": 1.5051, "tackles_won": 0.8933, "clearances": 5.8399, "aerial_won": 1.9898, "total_shots": 0.7292, "rating": 7.0218, "minutes": 89.22, "total_pass": 73.7753, "accurate_pass": 65.2368, "duels_won": 4.1365, "total_long_balls": 6.5495, "accurate_long_balls": 1.864, "total_own_half_passes": 49.9204, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.2817, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.955, "crosses_total": 0.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.0183, "touches": 89.7653, "possession_lost": 9.586, "dispossessed": 0.0962, "duels_lost": 3.1427, "aerial_lost": 1.402, "total_contest": 0.3287, "won_contest": 0.2432, "ball_recovery": 4.058, "challenges_lost": 0.4506, "fouls": 1.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.4932, "blocks": 0.6538, "goals": 0.0141, "goal_rate": 0.0141, "assists": 0.0131, "assist_rate": 0.0131, "expected_goals": 0.0588, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "shots_on_target": 0.1854, "big_chances_created": 0.0346, "xgot": 0.0901, "ball_carries": 30.7454, "total_progression": 105.1888, "progressive_carries": 0.8719, "key_pass": 0.1885, "shots_off_target": 0.5437 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3143, "tackles": 1.5051, "tackles_won": 0.8933, "clearances": 5.8399, "aerial_won": 1.9898, "total_shots": 0.7292, "rating": 7.0218, "minutes": 89.22, "total_pass": 73.7753, "accurate_pass": 65.2368, "duels_won": 4.1365, "total_long_balls": 6.5495, "accurate_long_balls": 1.864, "total_own_half_passes": 49.9204, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.2817, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.955, "crosses_total": 0.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.0183, "touches": 89.7653, "possession_lost": 9.586, "dispossessed": 0.0962, "duels_lost": 3.1427, "aerial_lost": 1.402, "total_contest": 0.3287, "won_contest": 0.2432, "ball_recovery": 4.058, "challenges_lost": 0.4506, "fouls": 1.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.4932, "blocks": 0.6538, "goals": 0.0141, "goal_rate": 0.0141, "assists": 0.0131, "assist_rate": 0.0131, "expected_goals": 0.0588, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "shots_on_target": 0.1854, "big_chances_created": 0.0346, "xgot": 0.0901, "ball_carries": 30.7454, "total_progression": 105.1888, "progressive_carries": 0.8719, "key_pass": 0.1885, "shots_off_target": 0.5437, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.546, "opponent_faced": "Joe Willock", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Joe Willock", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3143, "tackles": 1.5051, "tackles_won": 0.8933, "clearances": 5.8399, "aerial_won": 1.9898, "total_shots": 0.7292, "rating": 7.0218, "minutes": 89.22, "total_pass": 73.7753, "accurate_pass": 65.2368, "duels_won": 4.1365, "total_long_balls": 6.5495, "accurate_long_balls": 1.864, "total_own_half_passes": 49.9204, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.2817, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.955, "crosses_total": 0.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.0183, "touches": 89.7653, "possession_lost": 9.586, "dispossessed": 0.0962, "duels_lost": 3.1427, "aerial_lost": 1.402, "total_contest": 0.3287, "won_contest": 0.2432, "ball_recovery": 4.058, "challenges_lost": 0.4506, "fouls": 1.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.4932, "blocks": 0.6538, "goal_rate": 0.0141, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0131, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0588, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "shots_on_target": 0.1854, "big_chances_created": 0.0346, "xgot": 0.0901, "ball_carries": 30.7454, "total_progression": 105.1888, "progressive_carries": 0.8719, "key_pass": 0.1885, "shots_off_target": 0.5437, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.546, "opponent_faced": "Joe Willock", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1733, xG scale 1.2895, xA scale 1.2895, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3143, "tackles": 1.5051, "tackles_won": 0.8933, "clearances": 5.8399, "aerial_won": 1.9898, "total_shots": 0.7292, "rating": 7.0218, "minutes": 89.22, "total_pass": 73.7753, "accurate_pass": 65.2368, "duels_won": 4.1365, "total_long_balls": 6.5495, "accurate_long_balls": 1.864, "total_own_half_passes": 49.9204, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.2817, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.955, "crosses_total": 0.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.0183, "touches": 89.7653, "possession_lost": 9.586, "dispossessed": 0.0962, "duels_lost": 3.1427, "aerial_lost": 1.402, "total_contest": 0.3287, "won_contest": 0.2432, "ball_recovery": 4.058, "challenges_lost": 0.4506, "fouls": 1.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.4932, "blocks": 0.6538, "goal_rate": 0.0141, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0131, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0758, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "shots_on_target": 0.1854, "big_chances_created": 0.0346, "xgot": 0.1162, "ball_carries": 30.7454, "total_progression": 105.1888, "progressive_carries": 0.8719, "key_pass": 0.1885, "shots_off_target": 0.5437, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.546, "opponent_faced": "Joe Willock", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.513, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1733, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9264, "team_expected_assists": 1.1946, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7896, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2895, "xa_scale": 1.2895, "opponent_lambda": 1.268, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0588, "after": 0.0758 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0296, "after": 0.0382 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3143, "tackles": 1.5051, "tackles_won": 0.8933, "clearances": 5.8399, "aerial_won": 1.9898, "total_shots": 0.7292, "rating": 7.0218, "minutes": 89.22, "total_pass": 73.7753, "accurate_pass": 65.2368, "duels_won": 4.1365, "total_long_balls": 6.5495, "accurate_long_balls": 1.864, "total_own_half_passes": 49.9204, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.2817, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.955, "crosses_total": 0.1101, "crosses_accurate": 0.0183, "touches": 89.7653, "possession_lost": 9.586, "dispossessed": 0.0962, "duels_lost": 3.1427, "aerial_lost": 1.402, "total_contest": 0.3287, "won_contest": 0.2432, "ball_recovery": 4.058, "challenges_lost": 0.4506, "fouls": 1.1083, 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"goal_probability": 0.073, "goal_rate": 0.0141, "scorer_weight": 0.0606, "squad_weight_total": 1.4297, "weight_share": 0.0424, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonzalo García", "weight": 0.2876, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2876, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2518 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3143, "tackles": 1.5051, "tackles_won": 0.8933, "clearances": 5.8399, "aerial_won": 1.9898, "total_shots": 0.7292, "rating": 7.0218, "minutes": 89.22, "total_pass": 73.7753, "accurate_pass": 65.2368, "duels_won": 4.1365, "total_long_balls": 6.5495, "accurate_long_balls": 1.864, "total_own_half_passes": 49.9204, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47.2817, 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"total": 1.1441, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.117763 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.084951 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.082449 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.056491 } ], "others_margin": -0.07476 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.61219722032547, "model_output": 0.6122, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0649 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0167 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 0.6122, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064889 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.026199 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.018887 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.01697 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016745 } ], "others_margin": -0.01274 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.813747882843018, "model_output": 6.8137, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.018, "total": 6.8137, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023252 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.014187 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013769 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009447 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008962 } ], "others_margin": -0.017831 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.494)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0705, "tackles": 2.0348, "tackles_won": 1.2298, "clearances": 3.0566, "aerial_won": 1.1436, "total_shots": 0.612, "rating": 6.8137, "minutes": 86.69, "total_pass": 50.6689, "accurate_pass": 44.2188, "duels_won": 4.2669, "total_long_balls": 3.4477, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5348, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0773, "crosses_total": 2.1285, "crosses_accurate": 0.2576, "touches": 71.3725, "possession_lost": 10.6736, "dispossessed": 0.1488, "duels_lost": 4.5131, "aerial_lost": 1.7573, "total_contest": 1.1494, "won_contest": 0.5655, "ball_recovery": 3.6618, "challenges_lost": 0.8713, "fouls": 1.1517, "fouls_drawn": 0.5543, "blocks": 0.4107, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "expected_assists": 0.1336, "shots_on_target": 0.1586, "big_chances_created": 0.2255, "xgot": 0.0336, "ball_carries": 14.7273, "total_progression": 34.9624, "progressive_carries": 0.418, "key_pass": 0.6605, "shots_off_target": 0.4533 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7600000, "quality_factor": 0.4939, "boost_factor": 0.9996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.071, "tackles": 2.0348, "tackles_won": 1.229, "clearances": 3.0566, "aerial_won": 1.1436, "total_shots": 0.6115, "rating": 6.8137, "minutes": 86.69, "total_pass": 50.6689, "accurate_pass": 44.2188, "duels_won": 4.2669, "total_long_balls": 3.4477, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5348, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0773, "crosses_total": 2.1248, "crosses_accurate": 0.2576, "touches": 71.3725, "possession_lost": 10.6736, "dispossessed": 0.1488, "duels_lost": 4.5131, "aerial_lost": 1.7573, "total_contest": 1.1494, "won_contest": 0.5655, "ball_recovery": 3.6618, "challenges_lost": 0.8713, "fouls": 1.1661, "fouls_drawn": 0.569, "blocks": 0.4107, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.053, "assist_rate": 0.053, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "expected_assists": 0.1336, "shots_on_target": 0.1619, "big_chances_created": 0.2255, "xgot": 0.0336, "ball_carries": 14.7273, "total_progression": 34.9624, "progressive_carries": 0.418, "key_pass": 0.6605, "shots_off_target": 0.4533 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0086, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9632, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.5543, "after": 0.569 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1517, "after": 1.1661 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.071, "tackles": 2.0348, "tackles_won": 1.229, "clearances": 3.0566, "aerial_won": 1.1436, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 6.8137, "minutes": 86.69, "total_pass": 50.6689, "accurate_pass": 44.2188, "duels_won": 4.2669, "total_long_balls": 3.4477, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5348, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0773, "crosses_total": 2.1248, "crosses_accurate": 0.2576, "touches": 71.3725, "possession_lost": 10.6736, "dispossessed": 0.1488, "duels_lost": 4.5131, "aerial_lost": 1.7573, "total_contest": 1.1494, "won_contest": 0.5655, "ball_recovery": 3.6618, "challenges_lost": 0.8713, "fouls": 1.1661, "fouls_drawn": 0.569, "blocks": 0.4107, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.053, "assist_rate": 0.053, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "expected_assists": 0.1336, "shots_on_target": 0.1619, "big_chances_created": 0.2255, "xgot": 0.0336, "ball_carries": 14.7273, "total_progression": 34.9624, "progressive_carries": 0.418, "key_pass": 0.6605, "shots_off_target": 0.4533 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.071, "tackles": 2.0348, "tackles_won": 1.229, "clearances": 3.0566, "aerial_won": 1.1436, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 6.8137, "minutes": 86.69, "total_pass": 50.6689, "accurate_pass": 44.2188, "duels_won": 4.2669, "total_long_balls": 3.4477, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5348, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0773, "crosses_total": 2.1248, "crosses_accurate": 0.2576, "touches": 71.3725, "possession_lost": 10.6736, "dispossessed": 0.1488, "duels_lost": 4.5131, "aerial_lost": 1.7573, "total_contest": 1.1494, "won_contest": 0.5655, "ball_recovery": 3.6618, "challenges_lost": 0.8713, "fouls": 1.1661, "fouls_drawn": 0.569, "blocks": 0.4107, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.053, "assist_rate": 0.053, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "expected_assists": 0.1336, "shots_on_target": 0.1619, "big_chances_created": 0.2255, "xgot": 0.0336, "ball_carries": 14.7273, "total_progression": 34.9624, "progressive_carries": 0.418, "key_pass": 0.6605, "shots_off_target": 0.4533, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.071, "tackles": 2.0348, "tackles_won": 1.229, "clearances": 3.0566, "aerial_won": 1.1436, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 6.8137, "minutes": 86.69, "total_pass": 50.6689, "accurate_pass": 44.2188, "duels_won": 4.2669, "total_long_balls": 3.4477, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5348, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0773, "crosses_total": 2.1248, "crosses_accurate": 0.2576, "touches": 71.3725, "possession_lost": 10.6736, "dispossessed": 0.1488, "duels_lost": 4.5131, "aerial_lost": 1.7573, "total_contest": 1.1494, "won_contest": 0.5655, "ball_recovery": 3.6618, "challenges_lost": 0.8713, "fouls": 1.1661, "fouls_drawn": 0.569, "blocks": 0.4107, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.053, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "expected_assists": 0.1336, "shots_on_target": 0.1619, "big_chances_created": 0.2255, "xgot": 0.0336, "ball_carries": 14.7273, "total_progression": 34.9624, "progressive_carries": 0.418, "key_pass": 0.6605, "shots_off_target": 0.4533, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1733, xG scale 1.2895, xA scale 1.2895, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.071, "tackles": 2.0348, "tackles_won": 1.229, "clearances": 3.0566, "aerial_won": 1.1436, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 6.8137, "minutes": 86.69, "total_pass": 50.6689, "accurate_pass": 44.2188, "duels_won": 4.2669, "total_long_balls": 3.4477, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5348, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0773, "crosses_total": 2.1248, "crosses_accurate": 0.2576, "touches": 71.3725, "possession_lost": 10.6736, "dispossessed": 0.1488, "duels_lost": 4.5131, "aerial_lost": 1.7573, "total_contest": 1.1494, "won_contest": 0.5655, "ball_recovery": 3.6618, "challenges_lost": 0.8713, "fouls": 1.1661, "fouls_drawn": 0.569, "blocks": 0.4107, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.053, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.079, "expected_assists": 0.1723, "shots_on_target": 0.1619, "big_chances_created": 0.2255, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 14.7273, "total_progression": 34.9624, "progressive_carries": 0.418, "key_pass": 0.6605, "shots_off_target": 0.4533, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762, "opponent_faced": "Harvey Barnes", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.513, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1733, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9264, "team_expected_assists": 1.1946, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7896, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2895, "xa_scale": 1.2895, "opponent_lambda": 1.268, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0613, "after": 0.079 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1336, "after": 0.1723 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.071, "tackles": 2.0348, "tackles_won": 1.229, "clearances": 3.0566, "aerial_won": 1.1436, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 6.8137, "minutes": 86.69, "total_pass": 50.6689, "accurate_pass": 44.2188, "duels_won": 4.2669, "total_long_balls": 3.4477, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5348, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0773, "crosses_total": 2.1248, "crosses_accurate": 0.2576, "touches": 71.3725, "possession_lost": 10.6736, "dispossessed": 0.1488, "duels_lost": 4.5131, "aerial_lost": 1.7573, "total_contest": 1.1494, "won_contest": 0.5655, "ball_recovery": 3.6618, "challenges_lost": 0.8713, "fouls": 1.1661, "fouls_drawn": 0.569, "blocks": 0.4107, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.053, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.079, "expected_assists": 0.1723, 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3169, "fifa_rank": 2190.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.071, "tackles": 2.0348, "tackles_won": 1.229, "clearances": 3.0566, "aerial_won": 1.1436, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 6.8137, "minutes": 86.69, "total_pass": 50.6689, "accurate_pass": 44.2188, "duels_won": 4.2669, "total_long_balls": 3.4477, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5348, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0773, "crosses_total": 2.1248, "crosses_accurate": 0.2576, "touches": 71.3725, "possession_lost": 10.6736, "dispossessed": 0.1488, "duels_lost": 4.5131, "aerial_lost": 1.7573, "total_contest": 1.1494, "won_contest": 0.5655, "ball_recovery": 3.6618, 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4627 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.155 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1476 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0659 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0531 } ], "others": 0.2217, "total": 1.9591, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.462701 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.15502 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.147583 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.065941 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.053091 } ], "others_margin": 0.221675 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.220048427581787, "model_output": 7.22, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0795 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0778 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0192 } ], "others": 0.1313, "total": 7.22, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.079528 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.077844 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031746 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.023089 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.01919 } ], "others_margin": 0.131249 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2688, "expected_assists": 0.1983, "assists": 0.1278, "assist_rate": 0.1278, "expected_goals": 0.191, "goals": 0.2112, "goal_rate": 0.2112, "shots_on_target": 0.6321, "total_shots": 1.9683, "rating": 7.22, "minutes": 80.92, "total_pass": 53.463, "accurate_pass": 47.3542, "duels_won": 1.9049, "total_long_balls": 3.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2308, "total_own_half_passes": 20.2727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.571, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7831, "crosses_total": 4.7632, "crosses_accurate": 1.8407, "touches": 67.533, "possession_lost": 12.0226, "dispossessed": 0.8207, "duels_lost": 1.7119, "aerial_won": 0.0602, "aerial_lost": 0.0919, "interceptions": 0.5573, "tackles_won": 0.62, "tackles": 0.8078, "clearances": 0.3434, "total_contest": 1.2084, "won_contest": 0.7622, "challenges_lost": 0.1555, "fouls": 0.1975, "fouls_drawn": 0.2784, "blocks": 0.0353, "big_chances_created": 0.5584, "big_chances_missed": 0.3515, "xgot": 0.1098, "ball_carries": 22.6276, "total_progression": 71.9988, "progressive_carries": 2.0439, "shots_off_target": 1.3362 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2688, "expected_assists": 0.1983, "assists": 0.1265, "assist_rate": 0.1265, "expected_goals": 0.191, "goals": 0.2091, "goal_rate": 0.2091, "shots_on_target": 0.6257, "total_shots": 1.953, "rating": 7.22, "minutes": 80.92, "total_pass": 53.463, "accurate_pass": 47.3542, "duels_won": 1.9049, "total_long_balls": 3.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2308, "total_own_half_passes": 20.2727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.571, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7831, "crosses_total": 4.7379, "crosses_accurate": 1.8407, "touches": 67.533, "possession_lost": 12.0226, "dispossessed": 0.8207, "duels_lost": 1.7119, "aerial_won": 0.0602, "aerial_lost": 0.0919, "interceptions": 0.5653, "tackles_won": 0.6228, "tackles": 0.8078, "clearances": 0.3434, "total_contest": 1.2084, "won_contest": 0.7622, "challenges_lost": 0.1555, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "blocks": 0.0353, "big_chances_created": 0.5584, "big_chances_missed": 0.3515, "xgot": 0.1098, "ball_carries": 22.6276, "total_progression": 71.9988, "progressive_carries": 2.0439, "shots_off_target": 1.3362 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8991, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", 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"total_long_balls": 3.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2308, "total_own_half_passes": 20.2727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.571, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7831, "crosses_total": 4.7379, "crosses_accurate": 1.8407, "touches": 67.533, "possession_lost": 12.0226, "dispossessed": 0.8207, "duels_lost": 1.7119, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0919, "interceptions": 0.5653, "tackles_won": 0.6228, "tackles": 0.8078, "clearances": 0.3434, "total_contest": 1.2084, "won_contest": 0.7622, "challenges_lost": 0.1555, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "blocks": 0.0353, "big_chances_created": 0.5584, "big_chances_missed": 0.305, "xgot": 0.0953, "ball_carries": 22.6276, "total_progression": 71.9988, "progressive_carries": 2.0439, "shots_off_target": 1.1596, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8678, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lewis Hall", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Hall", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lewis Hall", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8678, "skill_edge": -0.1059, "height_edge": 0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.6408, "defender_skill": 0.8762, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lewis Hall", "market_value": 52000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.8762 } ], "xg_override": 0.1657 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0602, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9619, "after": 1.7026 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3362, "after": 1.1596 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7831, "crosses_total": 4.7379, "crosses_accurate": 1.8407, "touches": 67.533, "possession_lost": 12.0226, "dispossessed": 0.8207, "duels_lost": 1.7119, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0919, "interceptions": 0.5653, "tackles_won": 0.6228, "tackles": 0.8078, "clearances": 0.3434, "total_contest": 1.2084, "won_contest": 0.7622, "challenges_lost": 0.1555, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "blocks": 0.0353, "big_chances_created": 0.5584, "big_chances_missed": 0.305, "xgot": 0.0953, "ball_carries": 22.6276, "total_progression": 71.9988, "progressive_carries": 2.0439, "shots_off_target": 1.1596, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8678, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lewis Hall", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Hall", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1733, xG scale 1.2895, xA scale 1.2895, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2688, "expected_assists": 0.2557, "assist_rate": 0.1265, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2137, "goal_rate": 0.1815, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.543, "total_shots": 1.7026, "rating": 7.22, "minutes": 80.92, "total_pass": 53.463, "accurate_pass": 47.3542, "duels_won": 1.9049, "total_long_balls": 3.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2308, "total_own_half_passes": 20.2727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.571, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.1903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.7831, "crosses_total": 4.7379, "crosses_accurate": 1.8407, "touches": 67.533, "possession_lost": 12.0226, "dispossessed": 0.8207, "duels_lost": 1.7119, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0919, "interceptions": 0.5653, "tackles_won": 0.6228, "tackles": 0.8078, "clearances": 0.3434, "total_contest": 1.2084, "won_contest": 0.7622, "challenges_lost": 0.1555, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.2801, "blocks": 0.0353, "big_chances_created": 0.5584, "big_chances_missed": 0.305, "xgot": 0.1229, "ball_carries": 22.6276, "total_progression": 71.9988, "progressive_carries": 2.0439, "shots_off_target": 1.1596, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8678, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lewis Hall", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Hall", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, 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"trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:05:50.765150+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 905, "rows": 25067 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-31", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.4 }, { 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"contribution": 0.0655 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0503 } ], "others": 0.2002, "total": 2.0344, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.479246 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.170797 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.083466 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.065462 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.050262 } ], "others_margin": 0.20025 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.932685852050781, "model_output": 6.9327, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": 0.0015, "total": 6.9327, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.038535 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024018 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01605 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015513 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011883 } ], "others_margin": 0.001381 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0092, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5901, "expected_assists": 0.1434, "assists": 0.1352, "assist_rate": 0.1352, "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goals": 0.2107, "goal_rate": 0.2107, "shots_on_target": 0.7657, "total_shots": 2.0531, "rating": 6.9327, "minutes": 77.95, "total_pass": 29.8524, "accurate_pass": 25.7614, "duels_won": 3.6609, "total_long_balls": 0.9653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4967, "total_own_half_passes": 10.6882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0822, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1642, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6792, "crosses_total": 1.3673, "crosses_accurate": 0.2661, "touches": 44.1446, "possession_lost": 9.6106, "dispossessed": 0.9932, "duels_lost": 4.584, "aerial_won": 0.2495, "aerial_lost": 0.6544, "interceptions": 0.2696, "tackles_won": 0.4363, "tackles": 0.9991, "clearances": 0.5435, "total_contest": 2.7064, "won_contest": 0.8116, "challenges_lost": 0.4113, "fouls": 0.745, "fouls_drawn": 1.6007, "blocks": 0.1146, "big_chances_created": 0.2584, "big_chances_missed": 0.2746, "xgot": 0.1808, "ball_carries": 19.9779, "total_progression": 78.9239, "progressive_carries": 3.6564, "shots_off_target": 1.2874 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0092, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5901, "expected_assists": 0.1434, "assists": 0.1352, "assist_rate": 0.1352, "expected_goals": 0.1771, "goals": 0.2107, "goal_rate": 0.2107, "shots_on_target": 0.7657, "total_shots": 2.0531, "rating": 6.9327, "minutes": 77.95, "total_pass": 29.8524, "accurate_pass": 25.7614, "duels_won": 3.6609, "total_long_balls": 0.9653, 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"expected_assists": 0.1434, "assists": 0.1352, "assist_rate": 0.1352, "expected_goals": 0.1703, "goals": 0.2026, "goal_rate": 0.2026, "shots_on_target": 0.7362, "total_shots": 1.9741, "rating": 6.9327, "minutes": 77.95, "total_pass": 29.8524, "accurate_pass": 25.7614, "duels_won": 3.6609, "total_long_balls": 0.9653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4967, "total_own_half_passes": 10.6882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0822, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1642, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6792, "crosses_total": 1.3673, "crosses_accurate": 0.2661, "touches": 44.1446, "possession_lost": 9.6106, "dispossessed": 0.9932, "duels_lost": 4.584, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.6544, "interceptions": 0.2696, "tackles_won": 0.4363, "tackles": 0.9991, "clearances": 0.5435, "total_contest": 2.7064, "won_contest": 0.8116, "challenges_lost": 0.4113, "fouls": 0.745, "fouls_drawn": 1.6007, "blocks": 0.1146, "big_chances_created": 0.2584, "big_chances_missed": 0.264, "xgot": 0.1738, "ball_carries": 19.9779, 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"importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0436 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0415 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0352, "total": 0.2552, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.147608 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141033 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.124585 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.090131 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.04925 } ], "others_margin": -0.129524 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9098114371299744, "model_output": 0.9098, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1463 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0542 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0456 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0243 } ], "others": -0.1157, "total": 0.9098, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.146269 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054209 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.045605 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.030191 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024268 } ], "others_margin": -0.115657 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.007481098175049, "model_output": 7.0075, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0829 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.015 } ], "others": -0.0195, "total": 7.0075, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.082877 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034227 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.021847 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015674 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015021 } ], "others_margin": -0.019569 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0175, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9499, "expected_assists": 0.0829, "assists": 0.0587, "assist_rate": 0.0587, "expected_goals": 0.0797, "goals": 0.0744, "goal_rate": 0.0744, "shots_on_target": 0.2596, "total_shots": 0.9258, "rating": 7.0075, "minutes": 86.4, "total_pass": 59.4694, "accurate_pass": 54.2633, "duels_won": 4.9126, "total_long_balls": 3.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 1.611, "total_own_half_passes": 30.5302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.9249, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.3383, "crosses_total": 0.1172, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.2795, "possession_lost": 8.5392, "dispossessed": 1.0402, "duels_lost": 3.7664, "aerial_won": 1.5107, "aerial_lost": 0.8515, "interceptions": 1.3032, "tackles_won": 1.1237, "tackles": 1.7035, "clearances": 1.2749, "total_contest": 0.9951, "won_contest": 0.4397, "challenges_lost": 0.6416, "fouls": 0.6776, "fouls_drawn": 1.2587, "blocks": 1.11, "big_chances_created": 0.1623, "big_chances_missed": 0.2247, "xgot": 0.0176, "ball_carries": 18.802, "total_progression": 79.1269, "progressive_carries": 1.7628, "shots_off_target": 0.6662 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0175, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0077)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9499, "expected_assists": 0.0829, "assists": 0.0582, "assist_rate": 0.0582, "expected_goals": 0.0797, "goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.0738, "shots_on_target": 0.2576, "total_shots": 0.9471, "rating": 7.0075, "minutes": 86.4, "total_pass": 59.4694, "accurate_pass": 54.2633, "duels_won": 4.9126, "total_long_balls": 3.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 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"contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0291 } ], "others": -0.1589, "total": 0.5444, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.275248 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122018 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063833 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.035455 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.029066 } ], "others_margin": -0.158912 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.028311729431152, "model_output": 7.0283, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0777 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0174 } ], "others": -0.0016, "total": 7.0283, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.07772 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034846 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024506 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.018064 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017369 } ], "others_margin": -0.001597 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0055, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8401, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "assists": 0.0575, "assist_rate": 0.0575, "expected_goals": 0.06, "goals": 0.0591, "goal_rate": 0.0591, "shots_on_target": 0.154, "total_shots": 0.5474, "rating": 7.0283, "minutes": 84.87, "total_pass": 61.333, "accurate_pass": 55.7348, "duels_won": 2.7992, "total_long_balls": 2.9352, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0572, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2001, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2515, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.1329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.4832, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.0067, "touches": 71.4517, "possession_lost": 7.9462, "dispossessed": 0.5302, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_won": 0.9748, "aerial_lost": 0.8772, "interceptions": 0.4917, "tackles_won": 0.8683, "tackles": 1.4427, "clearances": 1.5594, "total_contest": 0.4525, "won_contest": 0.1011, "challenges_lost": 0.4152, "fouls": 0.9544, "fouls_drawn": 0.2806, "blocks": 0.6336, "big_chances_created": 0.0745, "big_chances_missed": 0.0536, "xgot": 0.0625, "ball_carries": 24.3972, "total_progression": 42.2992, "progressive_carries": 0.9613, "shots_off_target": 0.3934 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0055, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0075)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8401, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "assists": 0.0571, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "expected_goals": 0.06, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.1528, "total_shots": 0.5474, "rating": 7.0283, "minutes": 84.87, "total_pass": 61.333, "accurate_pass": 55.7348, "duels_won": 2.7992, "total_long_balls": 2.9352, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0572, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2001, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2515, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.1329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.4832, "crosses_total": 0.314, "crosses_accurate": 0.0067, "touches": 71.4517, "possession_lost": 7.9462, "dispossessed": 0.5302, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_won": 0.9748, "aerial_lost": 0.8772, "interceptions": 0.488, "tackles_won": 0.8618, "tackles": 1.4427, "clearances": 1.5594, "total_contest": 0.4525, "won_contest": 0.1011, "challenges_lost": 0.4152, "fouls": 0.9514, "fouls_drawn": 0.2785, "blocks": 0.6336, "big_chances_created": 0.0745, "big_chances_missed": 0.0536, "xgot": 0.0625, "ball_carries": 24.3972, "total_progression": 42.2992, "progressive_carries": 0.9613, "shots_off_target": 0.3934 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0075, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.943, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8683, "after": 0.8618 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8401, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "assists": 0.0571, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "expected_goals": 0.06, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.1528, "total_shots": 0.5474, "rating": 7.0283, "minutes": 84.87, "total_pass": 61.333, "accurate_pass": 55.7348, "duels_won": 2.7992, "total_long_balls": 2.9352, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0572, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2001, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2515, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.1329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.4832, "crosses_total": 0.314, "crosses_accurate": 0.0067, "touches": 71.4517, "possession_lost": 7.9462, "dispossessed": 0.5302, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_won": 0.9748, "aerial_lost": 0.8772, "interceptions": 0.488, "tackles_won": 0.8618, "tackles": 1.4427, "clearances": 1.5594, "total_contest": 0.4525, "won_contest": 0.1011, "challenges_lost": 0.4152, "fouls": 0.9514, "fouls_drawn": 0.2785, "blocks": 0.6336, "big_chances_created": 0.0745, "big_chances_missed": 0.0536, "xgot": 0.0625, "ball_carries": 24.3972, "total_progression": 42.2992, "progressive_carries": 0.9613, "shots_off_target": 0.3934 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8401, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "assists": 0.0571, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "expected_goals": 0.0606, "goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.1545, "total_shots": 0.5533, "rating": 7.0283, "minutes": 84.87, "total_pass": 61.333, "accurate_pass": 55.7348, "duels_won": 2.7992, "total_long_balls": 2.9352, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0572, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2001, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2515, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.1329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.4832, "crosses_total": 0.314, "crosses_accurate": 0.0067, "touches": 71.4517, "possession_lost": 7.9462, "dispossessed": 0.5302, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 0.8772, "interceptions": 0.488, "tackles_won": 0.8618, "tackles": 1.4427, "clearances": 1.5594, "total_contest": 0.4525, "won_contest": 0.1011, "challenges_lost": 0.4152, "fouls": 0.9514, "fouls_drawn": 0.2785, "blocks": 0.6336, "big_chances_created": 0.0745, "big_chances_missed": 0.0542, "xgot": 0.0632, "ball_carries": 24.3972, "total_progression": 42.2992, "progressive_carries": 0.9613, "shots_off_target": 0.3976, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0108, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lewis Miley", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Miley", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lewis Miley", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0108, "skill_edge": -0.0207, "height_edge": 0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.7219, "defender_skill": 0.7679, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "market_value": 32000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7679 } ], "xg_override": 0.0606 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.9748, "after": 1.4 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5474, "after": 0.5533 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8401, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0606, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1545, "total_shots": 0.5533, "rating": 7.0283, "minutes": 84.87, "total_pass": 61.333, "accurate_pass": 55.7348, "duels_won": 2.7992, "total_long_balls": 2.9352, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0572, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2001, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2515, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.1329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.4832, "crosses_total": 0.314, "crosses_accurate": 0.0067, "touches": 71.4517, "possession_lost": 7.9462, "dispossessed": 0.5302, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 0.8772, "interceptions": 0.488, "tackles_won": 0.8618, "tackles": 1.4427, "clearances": 1.5594, "total_contest": 0.4525, "won_contest": 0.1011, "challenges_lost": 0.4152, "fouls": 0.9514, "fouls_drawn": 0.2785, "blocks": 0.6336, "big_chances_created": 0.0745, "big_chances_missed": 0.0542, "xgot": 0.0632, "ball_carries": 24.3972, "total_progression": 42.2992, "progressive_carries": 0.9613, "shots_off_target": 0.3976, 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"duel_win_rate": 0.427, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lewis Miley", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Miley", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.0123 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.513, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1733, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9264, "team_expected_assists": 1.1946, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7896, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2895, "xa_scale": 1.2895, "opponent_lambda": 1.268, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0606, "after": 0.0781 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0558, "after": 0.072 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8401, "expected_assists": 0.072, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0781, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1545, "total_shots": 0.5533, "rating": 7.0283, "minutes": 84.87, "total_pass": 61.333, "accurate_pass": 55.7348, "duels_won": 2.7992, "total_long_balls": 2.9352, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0572, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2001, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2515, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.1329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.4832, "crosses_total": 0.314, "crosses_accurate": 0.0067, "touches": 71.4517, "possession_lost": 7.9462, "dispossessed": 0.5302, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 0.8772, "interceptions": 0.488, "tackles_won": 0.8618, "tackles": 1.4427, "clearances": 1.5594, "total_contest": 0.4525, "won_contest": 0.1011, "challenges_lost": 0.4152, "fouls": 0.9514, "fouls_drawn": 0.2785, "blocks": 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1618 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1596 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0839 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0243 } ], "others": 0.0039, "total": 1.0837, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.161777 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.159611 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.083906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.037463 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.024301 } ], "others_margin": 0.003837 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.757752418518066, "model_output": 6.7578, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0053 } ], "others": -0.0317, "total": 6.7578, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.039143 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.038878 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027694 }, { "name": 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0.794, "total_contest": 0.6937, "won_contest": 0.4267, "challenges_lost": 0.1806, "fouls": 0.6023, "fouls_drawn": 1.0789, "blocks": 0.0051, "big_chances_created": 0.0424, "big_chances_missed": 0.1887, "xgot": 0.0654, "ball_carries": 12.7185, "total_progression": 29.9875, "progressive_carries": 0.7589, "shots_off_target": 0.7542 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15600000, "quality_factor": 0.5857, "boost_factor": 1.0026, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0009)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6675, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "assists": 0.0645, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "expected_goals": 0.0924, "goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "shots_on_target": 0.332, "total_shots": 1.0901, "rating": 6.7578, "minutes": 73.03, "total_pass": 29.6796, "accurate_pass": 27.1385, "duels_won": 3.3654, "total_long_balls": 0.5326, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3779, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1025, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.036, "crosses_total": 0.4895, "crosses_accurate": 0.0135, "touches": 39.9665, "possession_lost": 5.6353, "dispossessed": 0.845, "duels_lost": 2.1301, "aerial_won": 0.2709, "aerial_lost": 0.3847, "interceptions": 0.4393, "tackles_won": 1.0239, "tackles": 1.7206, "clearances": 0.794, "total_contest": 0.6937, "won_contest": 0.4267, "challenges_lost": 0.1806, "fouls": 0.6017, "fouls_drawn": 1.0779, "blocks": 0.0051, "big_chances_created": 0.0424, "big_chances_missed": 0.1887, "xgot": 0.0654, "ball_carries": 12.7185, "total_progression": 29.9875, "progressive_carries": 0.7589, "shots_off_target": 0.7542 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0009, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8114, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6675, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "assists": 0.0645, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "expected_goals": 0.0924, "goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "shots_on_target": 0.332, "total_shots": 1.0901, "rating": 6.7578, "minutes": 73.03, "total_pass": 29.6796, "accurate_pass": 27.1385, "duels_won": 3.3654, "total_long_balls": 0.5326, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3779, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1025, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.036, "crosses_total": 0.4895, "crosses_accurate": 0.0135, "touches": 39.9665, "possession_lost": 5.6353, "dispossessed": 0.845, "duels_lost": 2.1301, "aerial_won": 0.2709, "aerial_lost": 0.3847, "interceptions": 0.4393, "tackles_won": 1.0239, "tackles": 1.7206, "clearances": 0.794, "total_contest": 0.6937, "won_contest": 0.4267, "challenges_lost": 0.1806, "fouls": 0.6017, "fouls_drawn": 1.0779, "blocks": 0.0051, 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5.6353, "dispossessed": 0.845, "duels_lost": 2.1301, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3847, "interceptions": 0.4393, "tackles_won": 1.0239, "tackles": 1.7206, "clearances": 0.794, "total_contest": 0.6937, "won_contest": 0.4267, "challenges_lost": 0.1806, "fouls": 0.6017, "fouls_drawn": 1.0779, "blocks": 0.0051, "big_chances_created": 0.0424, "big_chances_missed": 0.201, "xgot": 0.0697, "ball_carries": 12.7185, "total_progression": 29.9875, "progressive_carries": 0.7589, "shots_off_target": 0.8034, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0652, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.524, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fabian Schär", "opponent_faced": "Fabian Schär", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fabian Schär", "matchup_zone": 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goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6675, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0984, "goal_rate": 0.0967, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.1612, "rating": 6.7578, "minutes": 73.03, "total_pass": 29.6796, "accurate_pass": 27.1385, "duels_won": 3.3654, "total_long_balls": 0.5326, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3779, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1025, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.036, "crosses_total": 0.4895, "crosses_accurate": 0.0135, "touches": 39.9665, "possession_lost": 5.6353, "dispossessed": 0.845, "duels_lost": 2.1301, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3847, "interceptions": 0.4393, "tackles_won": 1.0239, "tackles": 1.7206, "clearances": 0.794, "total_contest": 0.6937, "won_contest": 0.4267, "challenges_lost": 0.1806, 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1.2895, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6675, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1269, "goal_rate": 0.0967, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.1612, "rating": 6.7578, "minutes": 73.03, "total_pass": 29.6796, "accurate_pass": 27.1385, "duels_won": 3.3654, "total_long_balls": 0.5326, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3779, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1025, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.036, "crosses_total": 0.4895, "crosses_accurate": 0.0135, "touches": 39.9665, "possession_lost": 5.6353, "dispossessed": 0.845, "duels_lost": 2.1301, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3847, "interceptions": 0.4393, "tackles_won": 1.0239, "tackles": 1.7206, "clearances": 0.794, "total_contest": 0.6937, "won_contest": 0.4267, "challenges_lost": 0.1806, "fouls": 0.6017, "fouls_drawn": 1.0779, "blocks": 0.0051, "big_chances_created": 0.0424, 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}, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0853 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0675 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0568 } ], "others": -0.0772, "total": 0.728, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.947502 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.266155 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.087834 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.075437 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.068151 } ], "others_margin": -0.100772 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.2851622700691223, "model_output": 0.2852, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7756 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2319 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0186 } ], "others": 0.0123, "total": 0.2852, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.835229 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.494679 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.1157 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.101187 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.065725 } ], "others_margin": 0.043229 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5935754776000977, "model_output": 0.5936, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2068 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1722 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0203 } ], "others": 0.0539, "total": 0.5936, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.20683 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.172233 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.025859 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.022266 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.020282 } ], "others_margin": 0.053856 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.701900482177734, "model_output": 6.7019, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0392 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0361, "total": 6.7019, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03919 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.035673 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024162 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.02262 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017497 } ], "others_margin": -0.036117 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0055, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4298, "tackles": 0.6193, "tackles_won": 0.4521, "clearances": 0.732, "aerial_won": 0.2867, "total_shots": 0.5969, "rating": 6.7019, "minutes": 17.12, "total_pass": 10.1547, "accurate_pass": 7.8877, "duels_won": 1.6549, "total_long_balls": 1.0868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3776, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4654, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9557, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6894, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9321, "crosses_total": 1.6578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2974, "touches": 19.3149, "possession_lost": 5.6876, "dispossessed": 0.3632, "duels_lost": 1.8608, "aerial_lost": 0.4289, "total_contest": 1.499, "won_contest": 0.8141, "ball_recovery": 1.2846, "challenges_lost": 0.1112, "fouls": 0.3528, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1365, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0494, "assist_rate": 0.0494, "expected_goals": 0.0212, "expected_assists": 0.087, "shots_on_target": 0.1112, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0102, "ball_carries": 5.748, "total_progression": 40.6137, "progressive_carries": 1.1874, "key_pass": 0.239, "shots_off_target": 0.4857 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0055, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0029)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4297, "tackles": 0.6193, "tackles_won": 0.4508, "clearances": 0.732, "aerial_won": 0.2867, "total_shots": 0.5976, "rating": 6.7019, "minutes": 17.12, "total_pass": 10.1547, "accurate_pass": 7.8877, "duels_won": 1.6549, "total_long_balls": 1.0868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3776, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4654, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9557, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6894, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9321, "crosses_total": 1.6607, "crosses_accurate": 0.2974, "touches": 19.3149, "possession_lost": 5.6876, "dispossessed": 0.3632, "duels_lost": 1.8608, "aerial_lost": 0.4289, "total_contest": 1.499, "won_contest": 0.8141, "ball_recovery": 1.2846, "challenges_lost": 0.1112, "fouls": 0.3518, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1365, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0493, "assist_rate": 0.0493, "expected_goals": 0.0212, "expected_assists": 0.087, "shots_on_target": 0.1121, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0102, "ball_carries": 5.748, "total_progression": 40.6137, "progressive_carries": 1.1874, "key_pass": 0.239, "shots_off_target": 0.4857 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0029, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1902, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.1 to 18.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4523, "tackles": 0.6519, "tackles_won": 0.4745, "clearances": 0.7705, "aerial_won": 0.3018, "total_shots": 0.6292, "rating": 6.7019, "minutes": 18.02, "total_pass": 10.6885, "accurate_pass": 8.3024, "duels_won": 1.7419, "total_long_balls": 1.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3975, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1111, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0411, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1914, "crosses_total": 1.748, "crosses_accurate": 0.313, "touches": 20.3303, "possession_lost": 5.9866, "dispossessed": 0.3632, "duels_lost": 1.9586, "aerial_lost": 0.4289, "total_contest": 1.5778, "won_contest": 0.8569, "ball_recovery": 1.3521, "challenges_lost": 0.1112, "fouls": 0.3703, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1437, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0519, "assist_rate": 0.0519, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0916, "shots_on_target": 0.118, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 6.0502, "total_progression": 42.7488, "progressive_carries": 1.2498, "key_pass": 0.2516, "shots_off_target": 0.5112, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.618, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.02, "projection_minutes": 17.12, "minutes_scale": 1.0526, "appearance_probability": 0.618 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4523, "tackles": 0.6519, "tackles_won": 0.4745, "clearances": 0.7705, "aerial_won": 0.3018, "total_shots": 0.6292, "rating": 6.7019, "minutes": 18.02, "total_pass": 10.6885, "accurate_pass": 8.3024, "duels_won": 1.7419, "total_long_balls": 1.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3975, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1111, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0411, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1914, "crosses_total": 1.748, "crosses_accurate": 0.313, "touches": 20.3303, "possession_lost": 5.9866, "dispossessed": 0.3632, "duels_lost": 1.9586, "aerial_lost": 0.4289, "total_contest": 1.5778, "won_contest": 0.8569, "ball_recovery": 1.3521, "challenges_lost": 0.1112, "fouls": 0.3703, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1437, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0519, "assist_rate": 0.0519, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0916, "shots_on_target": 0.118, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 6.0502, "total_progression": 42.7488, "progressive_carries": 1.2498, "key_pass": 0.2516, "shots_off_target": 0.5112, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.618, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4523, "tackles": 0.6519, "tackles_won": 0.4745, "clearances": 0.7705, "aerial_won": 0.3018, "total_shots": 0.6292, "rating": 6.7019, "minutes": 18.02, "total_pass": 10.6885, "accurate_pass": 8.3024, "duels_won": 1.7419, "total_long_balls": 1.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3975, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1111, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0411, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1914, "crosses_total": 1.748, "crosses_accurate": 0.313, "touches": 20.3303, "possession_lost": 5.9866, "dispossessed": 0.3632, "duels_lost": 1.9586, "aerial_lost": 0.4289, "total_contest": 1.5778, "won_contest": 0.8569, "ball_recovery": 1.3521, "challenges_lost": 0.1112, "fouls": 0.3703, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1437, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0519, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0916, "shots_on_target": 0.118, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 6.0502, "total_progression": 42.7488, "progressive_carries": 1.2498, "key_pass": 0.2516, "shots_off_target": 0.5112, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.618, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1733, xG scale 1.2895, xA scale 1.2895, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4523, "tackles": 0.6519, "tackles_won": 0.4745, "clearances": 0.7705, "aerial_won": 0.3018, "total_shots": 0.6292, "rating": 6.7019, "minutes": 18.02, "total_pass": 10.6885, "accurate_pass": 8.3024, "duels_won": 1.7419, "total_long_balls": 1.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3975, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1111, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0411, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1914, "crosses_total": 1.748, "crosses_accurate": 0.313, "touches": 20.3303, "possession_lost": 5.9866, "dispossessed": 0.3632, "duels_lost": 1.9586, "aerial_lost": 0.4289, "total_contest": 1.5778, "won_contest": 0.8569, "ball_recovery": 1.3521, "challenges_lost": 0.1112, "fouls": 0.3703, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1437, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0519, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "expected_assists": 0.073, "shots_on_target": 0.118, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0085, "ball_carries": 6.0502, "total_progression": 42.7488, "progressive_carries": 1.2498, "key_pass": 0.2516, "shots_off_target": 0.5112, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.618, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.513, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1733, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9264, "team_expected_assists": 1.1946, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7896, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2895, "xa_scale": 1.2895, "opponent_lambda": 1.268, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.618 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0916, "after": 0.073 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4523, "tackles": 0.6519, "tackles_won": 0.4745, "clearances": 0.7705, "aerial_won": 0.3018, "total_shots": 0.6292, "rating": 6.7019, "minutes": 18.02, "total_pass": 10.6885, "accurate_pass": 8.3024, "duels_won": 1.7419, "total_long_balls": 1.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3975, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1111, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0411, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1914, "crosses_total": 1.748, "crosses_accurate": 0.313, "touches": 20.3303, "possession_lost": 5.9866, "dispossessed": 0.3632, "duels_lost": 1.9586, "aerial_lost": 0.4289, "total_contest": 1.5778, "won_contest": 0.8569, "ball_recovery": 1.3521, "challenges_lost": 0.1112, "fouls": 0.3703, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1437, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0519, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "expected_assists": 0.073, "shots_on_target": 0.118, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0085, "ball_carries": 6.0502, "total_progression": 42.7488, "progressive_carries": 1.2498, "key_pass": 0.2516, "shots_off_target": 0.5112, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.618, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3091, "fifa_rank": 1417.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", 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XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4148 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2011 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.025 } ], "others": -0.0602, "total": 0.2963, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.414814 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.201144 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040814 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028275 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.024975 } ], "others_margin": -0.060217 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6527485847473145, "model_output": 6.6527, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0755 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0364, "total": 6.6527, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07548 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04181 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034546 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010257 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.00618 } ], "others_margin": -0.036384 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0223, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2296, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "assists": 0.0419, "assist_rate": 0.0419, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "goals": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "shots_on_target": 0.1143, "total_shots": 0.3029, "rating": 6.6527, "minutes": 13.25, "total_pass": 4.8932, "accurate_pass": 3.3892, "duels_won": 0.1439, "total_long_balls": 0.1991, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3222, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1727, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0671, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1015, "possession_lost": 1.504, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.1439, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1439, "clearances": 0.3983, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1439, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1431, "total_progression": 7.7549, "progressive_carries": 0.1693, "shots_off_target": 0.1886 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0223, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.2 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3444, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assists": 0.0629, "assist_rate": 0.0629, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "goals": 0.0606, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "shots_on_target": 0.1714, "total_shots": 0.4544, "rating": 6.6527, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3398, "accurate_pass": 5.0838, "duels_won": 0.2158, "total_long_balls": 0.2986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9833, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7591, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1522, "possession_lost": 2.256, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2158, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2158, "clearances": 0.5975, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1439, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7147, "total_progression": 11.6324, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "shots_off_target": 0.2829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 13.25, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.54 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3444, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assists": 0.0629, "assist_rate": 0.0629, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "goals": 0.0606, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "shots_on_target": 0.1714, "total_shots": 0.4544, "rating": 6.6527, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3398, "accurate_pass": 5.0838, "duels_won": 0.2158, "total_long_balls": 0.2986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9833, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7591, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1522, "possession_lost": 2.256, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2158, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2158, "clearances": 0.5975, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1439, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7147, "total_progression": 11.6324, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "shots_off_target": 0.2829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3444, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0629, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1714, "total_shots": 0.4544, "rating": 6.6527, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3398, "accurate_pass": 5.0838, "duels_won": 0.2158, "total_long_balls": 0.2986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9833, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7591, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1522, "possession_lost": 2.256, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2158, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2158, "clearances": 0.5975, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1439, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7147, "total_progression": 11.6324, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "shots_off_target": 0.2829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1733, xG scale 1.2895, xA scale 1.2895, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3444, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0629, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1714, "total_shots": 0.4544, "rating": 6.6527, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3398, "accurate_pass": 5.0838, "duels_won": 0.2158, "total_long_balls": 0.2986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9833, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7591, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1522, "possession_lost": 2.256, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2158, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2158, "clearances": 0.5975, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1439, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7147, "total_progression": 11.6324, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "shots_off_target": 0.2829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0614, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.513, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1733, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9264, "team_expected_assists": 1.1946, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7896, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2895, "xa_scale": 1.2895, "opponent_lambda": 1.268, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.54 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0542, "after": 0.0377 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0295, "after": 0.0205 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3444, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0629, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1714, "total_shots": 0.4544, "rating": 6.6527, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3398, "accurate_pass": 5.0838, "duels_won": 0.2158, "total_long_balls": 0.2986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9833, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7591, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1522, "possession_lost": 2.256, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2158, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2158, "clearances": 0.5975, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1439, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7147, "total_progression": 11.6324, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "shots_off_target": 0.2829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0614, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3138, "fifa_rank": 1511.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3444, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0629, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1714, "total_shots": 0.4544, "rating": 6.6527, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3398, "accurate_pass": 5.0838, "duels_won": 0.2158, "total_long_balls": 0.2986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9833, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7591, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1522, "possession_lost": 2.256, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2158, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2158, "clearances": 0.5975, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1439, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7147, "total_progression": 11.6324, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "shots_off_target": 0.2829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0364, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0614, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0364, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "scorer_weight": 0.04, "squad_weight_total": 1.4297, "weight_share": 0.028, "finishing_factor": 1.0614, "appearance_weight": 0.54, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Gonzalo García", "weight": 0.2876, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2876, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2518 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3444, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0629, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1714, "total_shots": 0.4544, "rating": 6.6527, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3398, "accurate_pass": 5.0838, "duels_won": 0.2158, "total_long_balls": 0.2986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9833, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7591, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1522, "possession_lost": 2.256, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2158, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2158, "clearances": 0.5975, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1439, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7147, "total_progression": 11.6324, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "shots_off_target": 0.2829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0364, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0201, "finishing_factor": 1.0614, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0201, "assist_rate": 0.0629, "provider_weight": 0.0256, "squad_weight_total": 1.0368, "weight_share": 0.0247, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.54, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Iwobi", "weight": 0.2046, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2046, "runner_up": "Josh King", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1771, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Gonzalo García" ] } ] } } ] }, "Manuel Ángel Morán": { "player_id": 1142683, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 168, "market_value": 4600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7098, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 3.4163, "dispossessed": 0.2251, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.502, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.05, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363877.0, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083211.0, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real 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6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087314 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038391 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027704 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.015809 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013709 } ], "others_margin": -0.023728 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": 0.0025, "total": 0.0344, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.3522 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.105771 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.091732 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.090994 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.070549 } ], "others_margin": 0.075257 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3872714936733246, "model_output": 0.3873, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2512 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": 0.0032, "total": 0.3873, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.451154 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.075628 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071732 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.042449 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.032 } ], "others_margin": 0.008022 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.643929958343506, "model_output": 6.6439, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0562 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0276, "total": 6.6439, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014202 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012506 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.01042 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008464 } ], "others_margin": -0.027586 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0633, "goals": 0.072, "goal_rate": 0.072, "shots_on_target": 0.268, "total_shots": 0.8711, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.3902, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 20.88, "total_pass": 7.7419, "accurate_pass": 5.8196, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 0.6268, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3098, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6386, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1081, "crosses_total": 0.9684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1202, "touches": 14.8821, "possession_lost": 5.1266, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.5533, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.5991, "won_contest": 0.6949, "ball_recovery": 1.1167, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4957, "fouls_drawn": 0.4464, "assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0222, "interceptions": 0.1754, "tackles_won": 0.3472, "tackles": 0.7667, "clearances": 0.163, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.016, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1185, "offsides": 0.0878, "ball_carries": 4.4168, "total_progression": 32.0413, "progressive_carries": 1.0519, "shots_off_target": 0.6031 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0075, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0018)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0633, "goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "shots_on_target": 0.2675, "total_shots": 0.8695, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.3902, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 20.88, "total_pass": 7.7419, "accurate_pass": 5.8196, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 0.6268, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3098, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6386, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1081, "crosses_total": 0.9694, "crosses_accurate": 0.1202, "touches": 14.8821, "possession_lost": 5.1266, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.5533, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.5991, "won_contest": 0.6949, "ball_recovery": 1.1167, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.499, "fouls_drawn": 0.4456, "assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0222, "interceptions": 0.1751, "tackles_won": 0.3466, "tackles": 0.7667, "clearances": 0.163, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.016, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1185, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.4168, "total_progression": 32.0413, "progressive_carries": 1.0519, "shots_off_target": 0.6031 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0018, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.232, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.9 to 19.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0575, "goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "shots_on_target": 0.243, "total_shots": 0.791, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "key_pass": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.5479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.97, "projection_minutes": 20.88, "minutes_scale": 0.9085, "appearance_probability": 0.739 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0575, "goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "shots_on_target": 0.243, "total_shots": 0.791, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "key_pass": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.5479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0575, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.243, "total_shots": 0.791, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "key_pass": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.5479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1733, xG scale 1.2895, xA scale 1.2895, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.243, "total_shots": 0.791, "expected_assists": 0.03, "key_pass": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1026, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.5479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0726, "creation_factor": 0.8613 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.513, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1733, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9264, "team_expected_assists": 1.1946, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7896, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2895, "xa_scale": 1.2895, "opponent_lambda": 1.268, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.739 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.243, "total_shots": 0.791, "expected_assists": 0.03, "key_pass": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1026, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.5479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0726, "creation_factor": 0.8613, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3248, "fifa_rank": 1766.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.243, "total_shots": 0.791, "expected_assists": 0.03, "key_pass": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, 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1.375643, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.46124 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.119033 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.055133 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.045063 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.044874 } ], "others_margin": 0.014324 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.034413229674100876, "model_output": 0.0344, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1287 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { 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-0.0321 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": 0.0032, "total": 0.3873, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.451154 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.075628 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071732 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.042449 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.032 } ], "others_margin": 0.008022 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.643929958343506, "model_output": 6.6439, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0562 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0276, "total": 6.6439, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014202 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012506 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.01042 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008464 } ], "others_margin": -0.027586 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0633, "goals": 0.072, "goal_rate": 0.072, "shots_on_target": 0.268, "total_shots": 0.8711, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.3902, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 20.88, "total_pass": 7.7419, "accurate_pass": 5.8196, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 0.6268, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3098, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6386, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1081, "crosses_total": 0.9684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1202, "touches": 14.8821, "possession_lost": 5.1266, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.5533, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.5991, "won_contest": 0.6949, "ball_recovery": 1.1167, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4957, "fouls_drawn": 0.4464, "assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0222, "interceptions": 0.1754, "tackles_won": 0.3472, "tackles": 0.7667, "clearances": 0.163, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.016, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1185, "offsides": 0.0878, "ball_carries": 4.4168, "total_progression": 32.0413, "progressive_carries": 1.0519, "shots_off_target": 0.6031 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0075, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0018)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0633, "goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "shots_on_target": 0.2675, "total_shots": 0.8695, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.3902, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 20.88, "total_pass": 7.7419, "accurate_pass": 5.8196, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 0.6268, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3098, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6386, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1081, "crosses_total": 0.9694, 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0.0575, "goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "shots_on_target": 0.243, "total_shots": 0.791, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "key_pass": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.5479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.97, "projection_minutes": 20.88, "minutes_scale": 0.9085, "appearance_probability": 0.739 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0575, "goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "shots_on_target": 0.243, "total_shots": 0.791, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "key_pass": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, 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"accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 0.0876, "ball_carries": 4.0128, "total_progression": 29.1103, "progressive_carries": 0.9557, "shots_off_target": 0.5479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1733, xG scale 1.2895, xA scale 1.2895, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.243, "total_shots": 0.791, "expected_assists": 0.03, "key_pass": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, 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0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0726, "creation_factor": 0.8613 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.513, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1733, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9264, "team_expected_assists": 1.1946, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7896, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2895, "xa_scale": 1.2895, "opponent_lambda": 1.268, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.739 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.243, "total_shots": 0.791, "expected_assists": 0.03, "key_pass": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0337, "accurate_pass": 5.2873, "duels_won": 1.7718, "total_long_balls": 0.5695, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2815, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7323, "crosses_total": 0.8807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1092, "touches": 13.5208, "possession_lost": 4.6576, "dispossessed": 0.4481, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_lost": 0.291, "total_contest": 1.4528, "won_contest": 0.6313, "ball_recovery": 1.0145, "challenges_lost": 0.4143, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.4048, "assist_rate": 0.0202, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1591, "tackles_won": 0.3149, "tackles": 0.6966, "clearances": 0.1481, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 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historical appearances) to 18.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.62); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 21.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4274, "tackles": 0.616, "tackles_won": 0.4496, "clearances": 0.728, "aerial_won": 0.2852, "total_shots": 0.5936, "rating": 6.7019, "minutes": 17.12, "total_pass": 10.0992, "accurate_pass": 7.8446, "duels_won": 1.6458, "total_long_balls": 1.0809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3755, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9395, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6528, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9051, "crosses_total": 1.6487, "crosses_accurate": 0.2958, "touches": 19.2092, "possession_lost": 5.6565, "dispossessed": 0.3612, "duels_lost": 1.8506, "aerial_lost": 0.4266, "total_contest": 1.4908, "won_contest": 0.8096, "ball_recovery": 1.2776, "challenges_lost": 0.1106, "fouls": 0.3509, 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}, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0853 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0675 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0568 } ], "others": -0.0772, "total": 0.728, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.947502 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.266155 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.087834 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.075437 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.068151 } ], "others_margin": -0.100772 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.2851622700691223, "model_output": 0.2852, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7756 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2319 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0186 } ], "others": 0.0123, "total": 0.2852, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.835229 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.494679 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.1157 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.101187 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.065725 } ], "others_margin": 0.043229 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5935754776000977, "model_output": 0.5936, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2068 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1722 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0203 } ], "others": 0.0539, "total": 0.5936, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.20683 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.172233 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.025859 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.022266 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.020282 } ], "others_margin": 0.053856 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.701900482177734, "model_output": 6.7019, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0392 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0361, "total": 6.7019, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03919 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.035673 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024162 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.02262 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017497 } ], "others_margin": -0.036117 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0055, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4298, "tackles": 0.6193, "tackles_won": 0.4521, "clearances": 0.732, "aerial_won": 0.2867, "total_shots": 0.5969, "rating": 6.7019, "minutes": 17.12, "total_pass": 10.1547, "accurate_pass": 7.8877, "duels_won": 1.6549, "total_long_balls": 1.0868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3776, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4654, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9557, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6894, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9321, "crosses_total": 1.6578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2974, "touches": 19.3149, "possession_lost": 5.6876, "dispossessed": 0.3632, "duels_lost": 1.8608, "aerial_lost": 0.4289, "total_contest": 1.499, "won_contest": 0.8141, "ball_recovery": 1.2846, "challenges_lost": 0.1112, "fouls": 0.3528, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1365, "goals": 0.0, 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20.3303, "possession_lost": 5.9866, "dispossessed": 0.3632, "duels_lost": 1.9586, "aerial_lost": 0.4289, "total_contest": 1.5778, "won_contest": 0.8569, "ball_recovery": 1.3521, "challenges_lost": 0.1112, "fouls": 0.3703, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1437, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0519, "assist_rate": 0.0519, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0916, "shots_on_target": 0.118, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 6.0502, "total_progression": 42.7488, "progressive_carries": 1.2498, "key_pass": 0.2516, "shots_off_target": 0.5112, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.618, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4523, "tackles": 0.6519, "tackles_won": 0.4745, "clearances": 0.7705, "aerial_won": 0.3018, "total_shots": 0.6292, "rating": 6.7019, "minutes": 18.02, "total_pass": 10.6885, "accurate_pass": 8.3024, "duels_won": 1.7419, "total_long_balls": 1.1439, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3975, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1111, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0411, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1914, "crosses_total": 1.748, "crosses_accurate": 0.313, "touches": 20.3303, "possession_lost": 5.9866, "dispossessed": 0.3632, "duels_lost": 1.9586, "aerial_lost": 0.4289, "total_contest": 1.5778, "won_contest": 0.8569, "ball_recovery": 1.3521, "challenges_lost": 0.1112, "fouls": 0.3703, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1437, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0519, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0916, "shots_on_target": 0.118, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0107, "ball_carries": 6.0502, "total_progression": 42.7488, "progressive_carries": 1.2498, "key_pass": 0.2516, "shots_off_target": 0.5112, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.618, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1733, xG scale 1.2895, xA scale 1.2895, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4523, "tackles": 0.6519, "tackles_won": 0.4745, "clearances": 0.7705, "aerial_won": 0.3018, "total_shots": 0.6292, "rating": 6.7019, "minutes": 18.02, "total_pass": 10.6885, 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.414814 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.201144 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040814 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028275 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.024975 } ], "others_margin": -0.060217 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6527485847473145, "model_output": 6.6527, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0755 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0223, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2296, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "assists": 0.0419, "assist_rate": 0.0419, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "goals": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "shots_on_target": 0.1143, "total_shots": 0.3029, "rating": 6.6527, "minutes": 13.25, "total_pass": 4.8932, "accurate_pass": 3.3892, "duels_won": 0.1439, "total_long_balls": 0.1991, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1991, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3222, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1727, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0671, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1015, "possession_lost": 1.504, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.1439, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1439, "clearances": 0.3983, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1439, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1431, "total_progression": 7.7549, "progressive_carries": 0.1693, "shots_off_target": 0.1886 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0223, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.2 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3444, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assists": 0.0629, "assist_rate": 0.0629, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "goals": 0.0606, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "shots_on_target": 0.1714, "total_shots": 0.4544, "rating": 6.6527, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3398, "accurate_pass": 5.0838, "duels_won": 0.2158, "total_long_balls": 0.2986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9833, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7591, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1522, "possession_lost": 2.256, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2158, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2158, "clearances": 0.5975, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1439, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7147, "total_progression": 11.6324, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "shots_off_target": 0.2829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 13.25, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.54 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3444, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assists": 0.0629, "assist_rate": 0.0629, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "goals": 0.0606, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "shots_on_target": 0.1714, "total_shots": 0.4544, "rating": 6.6527, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3398, "accurate_pass": 5.0838, "duels_won": 0.2158, "total_long_balls": 0.2986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9833, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7591, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1522, "possession_lost": 2.256, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2158, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2158, "clearances": 0.5975, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1439, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7147, "total_progression": 11.6324, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "shots_off_target": 0.2829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3444, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0629, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1714, "total_shots": 0.4544, "rating": 6.6527, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3398, "accurate_pass": 5.0838, "duels_won": 0.2158, "total_long_balls": 0.2986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9833, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7591, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1522, "possession_lost": 2.256, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2158, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2158, "clearances": 0.5975, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1439, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7147, "total_progression": 11.6324, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "shots_off_target": 0.2829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.1733, xG scale 1.2895, xA scale 1.2895, team xA 1.19 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3444, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0629, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0606, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1714, "total_shots": 0.4544, "rating": 6.6527, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3398, "accurate_pass": 5.0838, "duels_won": 0.2158, "total_long_balls": 0.2986, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2986, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9833, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7591, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1006, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1522, "possession_lost": 2.256, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2158, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2158, "clearances": 0.5975, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1439, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7147, "total_progression": 11.6324, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "shots_off_target": 0.2829, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.754, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0614, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.513, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1733, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9264, "team_expected_assists": 1.1946, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7896, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2895, "xa_scale": 1.2895, "opponent_lambda": 1.268, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.54 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0542, "after": 0.0377 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0295, "after": 0.0205 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0203 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0154 } ], "others": 0.0024, "total": 6.9193, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.065655 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032025 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020275 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.01551 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015415 } ], "others_margin": 0.002483 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2264, "tackles": 1.933, "tackles_won": 1.2852, "clearances": 3.5284, "aerial_won": 0.9595, "total_shots": 0.6539, "rating": 6.9193, "minutes": 88.75, "total_pass": 49.2393, "accurate_pass": 41.7055, "duels_won": 5.2576, "total_long_balls": 6.097, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6789, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8812, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.8243, "crosses_total": 3.7979, "crosses_accurate": 0.8681, "touches": 80.9166, "possession_lost": 17.028, "dispossessed": 1.8847, "duels_lost": 6.5898, "aerial_lost": 1.485, "total_contest": 2.5178, "won_contest": 1.1483, "ball_recovery": 6.4468, "challenges_lost": 1.1239, "fouls": 0.7338, "fouls_drawn": 1.7102, "blocks": 0.713, "goals": 0.1042, "goal_rate": 0.1042, "assists": 0.0691, "assist_rate": 0.0691, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "expected_assists": 0.0971, "shots_on_target": 0.3723, "big_chances_created": 0.1596, "xgot": 0.0257, "ball_carries": 18.6322, "total_progression": 64.4232, "progressive_carries": 1.4455, "key_pass": 1.2117, "shots_off_target": 0.2816 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2289, "tackles": 1.933, "tackles_won": 1.2921, "clearances": 3.5284, "aerial_won": 0.9595, "total_shots": 0.6523, "rating": 6.9193, "minutes": 88.75, "total_pass": 49.2393, "accurate_pass": 41.7055, "duels_won": 5.2576, "total_long_balls": 6.097, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6789, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8812, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.8243, "crosses_total": 3.7994, "crosses_accurate": 0.8681, "touches": 80.9166, "possession_lost": 17.028, "dispossessed": 1.8847, "duels_lost": 6.5898, "aerial_lost": 1.485, "total_contest": 2.5178, "won_contest": 1.1483, "ball_recovery": 6.4468, "challenges_lost": 1.1239, "fouls": 0.7413, "fouls_drawn": 1.7029, "blocks": 0.713, "goals": 0.1032, "goal_rate": 0.1032, "assists": 0.0684, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "expected_assists": 0.0971, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "big_chances_created": 0.1596, "xgot": 0.0257, "ball_carries": 18.6322, "total_progression": 64.4232, "progressive_carries": 1.4455, "key_pass": 1.2117, "shots_off_target": 0.2816 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9861, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7338, "after": 0.7413 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.7102, "after": 1.7029 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2852, "after": 1.2921 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2289, "tackles": 1.933, "tackles_won": 1.2921, "clearances": 3.5284, "aerial_won": 0.9595, "total_shots": 0.6523, "rating": 6.9193, "minutes": 88.75, "total_pass": 49.2393, "accurate_pass": 41.7055, "duels_won": 5.2576, "total_long_balls": 6.097, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6789, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8812, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.8243, "crosses_total": 3.7994, "crosses_accurate": 0.8681, "touches": 80.9166, "possession_lost": 17.028, "dispossessed": 1.8847, "duels_lost": 6.5898, "aerial_lost": 1.485, "total_contest": 2.5178, "won_contest": 1.1483, "ball_recovery": 6.4468, "challenges_lost": 1.1239, "fouls": 0.7413, "fouls_drawn": 1.7029, "blocks": 0.713, "goals": 0.1032, "goal_rate": 0.1032, "assists": 0.0684, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "expected_assists": 0.0971, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "big_chances_created": 0.1596, "xgot": 0.0257, "ball_carries": 18.6322, "total_progression": 64.4232, "progressive_carries": 1.4455, "key_pass": 1.2117, "shots_off_target": 0.2816 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2289, "tackles": 1.933, "tackles_won": 1.2921, "clearances": 3.5284, "aerial_won": 0.9595, "total_shots": 0.6523, "rating": 6.9193, "minutes": 88.75, "total_pass": 49.2393, "accurate_pass": 41.7055, "duels_won": 5.2576, "total_long_balls": 6.097, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6789, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8812, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.8243, "crosses_total": 3.7994, "crosses_accurate": 0.8681, "touches": 80.9166, "possession_lost": 17.028, "dispossessed": 1.8847, "duels_lost": 6.5898, "aerial_lost": 1.485, "total_contest": 2.5178, "won_contest": 1.1483, "ball_recovery": 6.4468, "challenges_lost": 1.1239, "fouls": 0.7413, "fouls_drawn": 1.7029, "blocks": 0.713, "goals": 0.1032, "goal_rate": 0.1032, "assists": 0.0684, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "expected_assists": 0.0971, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "big_chances_created": 0.1596, "xgot": 0.0257, "ball_carries": 18.6322, "total_progression": 64.4232, "progressive_carries": 1.4455, "key_pass": 1.2117, "shots_off_target": 0.2816, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.61, "opponent_faced": "Alex Iwobi", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alex Iwobi", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2289, "tackles": 1.933, "tackles_won": 1.2921, "clearances": 3.5284, "aerial_won": 0.9595, "total_shots": 0.6523, "rating": 6.9193, "minutes": 88.75, "total_pass": 49.2393, "accurate_pass": 41.7055, "duels_won": 5.2576, "total_long_balls": 6.097, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6789, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8812, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.8243, "crosses_total": 3.7994, "crosses_accurate": 0.8681, "touches": 80.9166, "possession_lost": 17.028, "dispossessed": 1.8847, "duels_lost": 6.5898, "aerial_lost": 1.485, "total_contest": 2.5178, "won_contest": 1.1483, "ball_recovery": 6.4468, "challenges_lost": 1.1239, "fouls": 0.7413, "fouls_drawn": 1.7029, "blocks": 0.713, "goal_rate": 0.1032, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "expected_assists": 0.0971, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "big_chances_created": 0.1596, "xgot": 0.0257, "ball_carries": 18.6322, "total_progression": 64.4232, "progressive_carries": 1.4455, "key_pass": 1.2117, "shots_off_target": 0.2816, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.61, "opponent_faced": "Alex Iwobi", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 0.9590, xG scale 1.3222, xA scale 1.3222, team xA 0.96 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2289, "tackles": 1.933, "tackles_won": 1.2921, "clearances": 3.5284, "aerial_won": 0.9595, "total_shots": 0.6523, "rating": 6.9193, "minutes": 88.75, "total_pass": 49.2393, "accurate_pass": 41.7055, "duels_won": 5.2576, "total_long_balls": 6.097, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6789, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8812, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.8243, "crosses_total": 3.7994, "crosses_accurate": 0.8681, "touches": 80.9166, "possession_lost": 17.028, "dispossessed": 1.8847, "duels_lost": 6.5898, "aerial_lost": 1.485, "total_contest": 2.5178, "won_contest": 1.1483, "ball_recovery": 6.4468, "challenges_lost": 1.1239, "fouls": 0.7413, "fouls_drawn": 1.7029, "blocks": 0.713, "goal_rate": 0.1032, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "expected_assists": 0.1284, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "big_chances_created": 0.1596, "xgot": 0.034, "ball_carries": 18.6322, "total_progression": 64.4232, "progressive_carries": 1.4455, "key_pass": 1.2117, "shots_off_target": 0.2816, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.61, "opponent_faced": "Alex Iwobi", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8049 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.268, "squad_xg_sum": 0.959, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7236, "team_expected_assists": 0.9567, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3222, "xa_scale": 1.3222, "opponent_lambda": 1.513, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0356, "after": 0.0471 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0971, "after": 0.1284 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2289, "tackles": 1.933, "tackles_won": 1.2921, "clearances": 3.5284, "aerial_won": 0.9595, "total_shots": 0.6523, "rating": 6.9193, "minutes": 88.75, "total_pass": 49.2393, "accurate_pass": 41.7055, "duels_won": 5.2576, "total_long_balls": 6.097, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6789, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8812, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.8243, "crosses_total": 3.7994, "crosses_accurate": 0.8681, "touches": 80.9166, "possession_lost": 17.028, "dispossessed": 1.8847, "duels_lost": 6.5898, "aerial_lost": 1.485, "total_contest": 2.5178, "won_contest": 1.1483, "ball_recovery": 6.4468, "challenges_lost": 1.1239, "fouls": 0.7413, "fouls_drawn": 1.7029, "blocks": 0.713, "goal_rate": 0.1032, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "expected_assists": 0.1284, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2289, "tackles": 1.933, "tackles_won": 1.2921, "clearances": 3.5284, "aerial_won": 0.9595, "total_shots": 0.6523, "rating": 6.9193, "minutes": 88.75, "total_pass": 49.2393, "accurate_pass": 41.7055, "duels_won": 5.2576, "total_long_balls": 6.097, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6789, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8812, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.8243, "crosses_total": 3.7994, "crosses_accurate": 0.8681, "touches": 80.9166, "possession_lost": 17.028, "dispossessed": 1.8847, "duels_lost": 6.5898, "aerial_lost": 1.485, "total_contest": 2.5178, "won_contest": 1.1483, "ball_recovery": 6.4468, "challenges_lost": 1.1239, "fouls": 0.7413, "fouls_drawn": 1.7029, "blocks": 0.713, "goal_rate": 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0.0589, "squad_weight_total": 1.3379, "weight_share": 0.044, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2289, "tackles": 1.933, "tackles_won": 1.2921, "clearances": 3.5284, "aerial_won": 0.9595, "total_shots": 0.6523, "rating": 6.9193, "minutes": 88.75, "total_pass": 49.2393, "accurate_pass": 41.7055, "duels_won": 5.2576, "total_long_balls": 6.097, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6789, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.8812, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.8243, "crosses_total": 3.7994, "crosses_accurate": 0.8681, "touches": 80.9166, "possession_lost": 17.028, "dispossessed": 1.8847, "duels_lost": 6.5898, "aerial_lost": 1.485, "total_contest": 2.5178, "won_contest": 1.1483, "ball_recovery": 6.4468, "challenges_lost": 1.1239, "fouls": 0.7413, "fouls_drawn": 1.7029, "blocks": 0.713, "goal_rate": 0.1032, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "expected_assists": 0.1284, "shots_on_target": 0.3685, "big_chances_created": 0.1596, "xgot": 0.034, "ball_carries": 18.6322, "total_progression": 64.4232, "progressive_carries": 1.4455, "key_pass": 1.2117, "shots_off_target": 0.2816, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.61, "opponent_faced": "Alex Iwobi", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.046, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1205, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8049, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, 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{ "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0821 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0529 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.026 } ], "others": 0.0814, "total": 0.6687, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.082075 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052915 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.028828 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.026056 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.026007 } ], "others_margin": 0.081329 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.070168972015381, "model_output": 7.0702, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": 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"defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1523, "tackles_won": 0.6654, "clearances": 6.8054, "aerial_won": 4.0673, "total_shots": 0.673, "rating": 7.0702, "minutes": 89.21, "total_pass": 62.1847, "accurate_pass": 53.4167, "duels_won": 7.0541, "total_long_balls": 6.7526, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3405, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2721, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.7702, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6464, "crosses_total": 0.0182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.863, "possession_lost": 9.7579, "dispossessed": 0.1308, "duels_lost": 2.7588, "aerial_lost": 1.8743, "total_contest": 0.0728, "won_contest": 0.0728, "ball_recovery": 2.6048, "challenges_lost": 0.3688, "fouls": 0.3852, "fouls_drawn": 0.717, "blocks": 1.3964, "goal_rate": 0.1396, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0495, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "shots_on_target": 0.4098, "big_chances_created": 0.0398, "xgot": 0.0813, "ball_carries": 24.349, "total_progression": 103.4947, "progressive_carries": 0.7089, "key_pass": 0.0827, "shots_off_target": 0.2604, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, 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{ "team_lambda": 1.268, "squad_xg_sum": 0.959, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7236, "team_expected_assists": 0.9567, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3222, "xa_scale": 1.3222, "opponent_lambda": 1.513, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0495, "after": 0.0654 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0381, "after": 0.0504 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.268, "squad_xg_sum": 0.959, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7236, "team_expected_assists": 0.9567, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3222, "xa_scale": 1.3222, "opponent_lambda": 1.513, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0521, "after": 0.0689 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0247, "after": 0.0327 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0965, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-04", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.082, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-30", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0697, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-26", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0593, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-20", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0504, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-14", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 48.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0428, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-06", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0364, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 19.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.0075, "aerialWon": 2.3538, 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"totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3455 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.2947 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3076 } ], "others": 0.7033, "total": 6.0018, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127218 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.114729 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.076408 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.060858 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059807 } ], "others_margin": 0.124657 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.7206387519836426, "model_output": 2.7206, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.3461 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1977 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2055 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1239 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.1131 } ], "others": 0.3646, "total": 2.7206, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.225259 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109052 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.056807 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.0492 } ], "others_margin": 0.143955 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7290112972259521, "model_output": 0.729, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0428 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0217 } ], "others": 0.0632, "total": 0.729, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063746 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.042807 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029927 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.026506 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021689 } ], "others_margin": 0.063089 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.954220771789551, "model_output": 6.9542, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0762 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0421, "total": 6.9542, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.076185 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025796 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014336 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.013792 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.01183 } ], "others_margin": 0.042174 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9958, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9083, "tackles": 1.0337, "tackles_won": 0.5737, "clearances": 5.9766, "aerial_won": 2.7092, "total_shots": 0.7259, "rating": 6.9542, "minutes": 87.95, "total_pass": 59.0925, "accurate_pass": 49.4749, "duels_won": 5.1116, "total_long_balls": 10.8055, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2591, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.2702, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.8658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2049, "crosses_total": 0.2665, "crosses_accurate": 0.1258, "touches": 73.6988, "possession_lost": 10.6715, "dispossessed": 0.0559, "duels_lost": 3.3721, "aerial_lost": 1.7324, "total_contest": 0.1258, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.759, "challenges_lost": 0.3677, "fouls": 1.304, "fouls_drawn": 0.3919, "blocks": 1.2373, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0915, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "shots_on_target": 0.3757, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0489, "ball_carries": 20.1493, "total_progression": 62.1595, "progressive_carries": 0.2316, "key_pass": 0.4947, "shots_off_target": 0.3502 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9958, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9083, "tackles": 1.0337, "tackles_won": 0.5737, "clearances": 5.9766, "aerial_won": 2.7092, "total_shots": 0.7259, "rating": 6.9542, "minutes": 87.95, "total_pass": 59.0925, "accurate_pass": 49.4749, "duels_won": 5.1116, "total_long_balls": 10.8055, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2591, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.2702, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.8658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2049, "crosses_total": 0.2665, "crosses_accurate": 0.1258, "touches": 73.6988, "possession_lost": 10.6715, "dispossessed": 0.0559, "duels_lost": 3.3721, "aerial_lost": 1.7324, "total_contest": 0.1258, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.759, "challenges_lost": 0.3677, "fouls": 1.304, "fouls_drawn": 0.3919, "blocks": 1.2373, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0915, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "shots_on_target": 0.3757, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0489, "ball_carries": 20.1493, "total_progression": 62.1595, "progressive_carries": 0.2316, "key_pass": 0.4947, "shots_off_target": 0.3502 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9083, "tackles": 1.0337, "tackles_won": 0.5737, "clearances": 5.9766, "aerial_won": 2.7092, "total_shots": 0.7259, "rating": 6.9542, "minutes": 87.95, "total_pass": 59.0925, "accurate_pass": 49.4749, "duels_won": 5.1116, "total_long_balls": 10.8055, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2591, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.2702, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.8658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2049, "crosses_total": 0.2665, "crosses_accurate": 0.1258, "touches": 73.6988, "possession_lost": 10.6715, "dispossessed": 0.0559, "duels_lost": 3.3721, "aerial_lost": 1.7324, "total_contest": 0.1258, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.759, "challenges_lost": 0.3677, "fouls": 1.304, "fouls_drawn": 0.3919, "blocks": 1.2373, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0915, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "shots_on_target": 0.3757, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0489, "ball_carries": 20.1493, "total_progression": 62.1595, "progressive_carries": 0.2316, "key_pass": 0.4947, "shots_off_target": 0.3502, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.476, "opponent_faced": "Emile Smith Rowe", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Emile Smith Rowe", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9083, "tackles": 1.0337, "tackles_won": 0.5737, "clearances": 5.9766, "aerial_won": 2.7092, "total_shots": 0.7259, "rating": 6.9542, "minutes": 87.95, "total_pass": 59.0925, "accurate_pass": 49.4749, "duels_won": 5.1116, "total_long_balls": 10.8055, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2591, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.2702, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.8658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2049, "crosses_total": 0.2665, "crosses_accurate": 0.1258, "touches": 73.6988, "possession_lost": 10.6715, "dispossessed": 0.0559, "duels_lost": 3.3721, "aerial_lost": 1.7324, "total_contest": 0.1258, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.759, "challenges_lost": 0.3677, "fouls": 1.304, "fouls_drawn": 0.3919, "blocks": 1.2373, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0915, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "shots_on_target": 0.3757, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0489, "ball_carries": 20.1493, "total_progression": 62.1595, "progressive_carries": 0.2316, "key_pass": 0.4947, "shots_off_target": 0.3502, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.476, "opponent_faced": "Emile Smith Rowe", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 0.9590, xG scale 1.3222, xA scale 1.3222, team xA 0.96 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9083, "tackles": 1.0337, "tackles_won": 0.5737, "clearances": 5.9766, "aerial_won": 2.7092, "total_shots": 0.7259, "rating": 6.9542, "minutes": 87.95, "total_pass": 59.0925, "accurate_pass": 49.4749, "duels_won": 5.1116, "total_long_balls": 10.8055, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2591, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.2702, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.8658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2049, "crosses_total": 0.2665, "crosses_accurate": 0.1258, "touches": 73.6988, "possession_lost": 10.6715, "dispossessed": 0.0559, "duels_lost": 3.3721, "aerial_lost": 1.7324, "total_contest": 0.1258, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.759, "challenges_lost": 0.3677, "fouls": 1.304, "fouls_drawn": 0.3919, "blocks": 1.2373, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.121, "expected_assists": 0.0416, "shots_on_target": 0.3757, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0647, "ball_carries": 20.1493, "total_progression": 62.1595, "progressive_carries": 0.2316, "key_pass": 0.4947, "shots_off_target": 0.3502, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.476, "opponent_faced": "Emile Smith Rowe", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.268, "squad_xg_sum": 0.959, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7236, "team_expected_assists": 0.9567, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3222, "xa_scale": 1.3222, "opponent_lambda": 1.513, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0915, "after": 0.121 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0315, "after": 0.0416 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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[ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.089 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": 0.0075, "total": 6.937, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.088963 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032345 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022463 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014981 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011656 } ], "others_margin": 0.007344 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9601, "expected_assists": 0.0765, "assists": 0.075, "assist_rate": 0.075, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "goals": 0.0458, "goal_rate": 0.0458, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.3928, "rating": 6.937, "minutes": 82.16, "total_pass": 47.995, "accurate_pass": 41.9283, "duels_won": 3.9182, "total_long_balls": 3.3316, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6549, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8999, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9846, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9437, "crosses_total": 1.8178, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 63.6357, "possession_lost": 9.1726, "dispossessed": 0.5222, "duels_lost": 2.6637, "aerial_won": 1.7925, "aerial_lost": 0.7116, "interceptions": 0.8947, "tackles_won": 1.1649, "tackles": 1.576, "clearances": 2.3106, "total_contest": 0.5219, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.9034, "fouls": 0.396, "fouls_drawn": 0.1804, "blocks": 0.3336, "big_chances_created": 0.0569, "big_chances_missed": 0.0342, "xgot": 0.0221, "ball_carries": 16.0921, "total_progression": 28.8478, "progressive_carries": 0.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.266 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9601, "expected_assists": 0.0765, "assists": 0.0742, "assist_rate": 0.0742, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.1254, "total_shots": 0.394, "rating": 6.937, "minutes": 82.16, "total_pass": 47.995, "accurate_pass": 41.9283, "duels_won": 3.9182, "total_long_balls": 3.3316, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6549, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8999, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9846, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9437, "crosses_total": 1.7975, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 63.6357, "possession_lost": 9.1726, "dispossessed": 0.5222, "duels_lost": 2.6637, "aerial_won": 1.7925, "aerial_lost": 0.7116, "interceptions": 0.896, "tackles_won": 1.1576, "tackles": 1.576, "clearances": 2.3106, "total_contest": 0.5219, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.9034, "fouls": 0.3972, "fouls_drawn": 0.1897, "blocks": 0.3336, "big_chances_created": 0.0569, "big_chances_missed": 0.0342, "xgot": 0.0221, "ball_carries": 16.0921, "total_progression": 28.8478, "progressive_carries": 0.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.266 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9129, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.8178, "after": 1.7975 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.1804, "after": 0.1897 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1649, "after": 1.1576 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9601, "expected_assists": 0.0765, "assists": 0.0742, "assist_rate": 0.0742, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.1254, "total_shots": 0.394, "rating": 6.937, "minutes": 82.16, "total_pass": 47.995, "accurate_pass": 41.9283, "duels_won": 3.9182, "total_long_balls": 3.3316, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6549, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8999, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9846, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9437, "crosses_total": 1.7975, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 63.6357, "possession_lost": 9.1726, "dispossessed": 0.5222, "duels_lost": 2.6637, "aerial_won": 1.7925, "aerial_lost": 0.7116, "interceptions": 0.896, "tackles_won": 1.1576, "tackles": 1.576, "clearances": 2.3106, "total_contest": 0.5219, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.9034, "fouls": 0.3972, "fouls_drawn": 0.1897, "blocks": 0.3336, "big_chances_created": 0.0569, "big_chances_missed": 0.0342, "xgot": 0.0221, "ball_carries": 16.0921, "total_progression": 28.8478, "progressive_carries": 0.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.266 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9601, "expected_assists": 0.0765, "assists": 0.0742, "assist_rate": 0.0742, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.0469, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "shots_on_target": 0.13, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.937, "minutes": 82.16, "total_pass": 47.995, "accurate_pass": 41.9283, "duels_won": 3.9182, "total_long_balls": 3.3316, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6549, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8999, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9846, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9437, "crosses_total": 1.7975, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 63.6357, "possession_lost": 9.1726, "dispossessed": 0.5222, "duels_lost": 2.6637, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.7116, "interceptions": 0.896, "tackles_won": 1.1576, "tackles": 1.576, "clearances": 2.3106, "total_contest": 0.5219, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.9034, "fouls": 0.3972, "fouls_drawn": 0.1897, "blocks": 0.3336, "big_chances_created": 0.0569, "big_chances_missed": 0.0354, "xgot": 0.0229, "ball_carries": 16.0921, "total_progression": 28.8478, "progressive_carries": 0.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.2757, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0363, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Shea Charles", "opponent_faced": "Shea Charles", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Shea Charles", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0363, "skill_edge": 0.0287, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.7679, "defender_skill": 0.704, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Shea Charles", "market_value": 24000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.704 } ], "xg_override": 0.038 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.7925, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.394, "after": 0.4083 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.266, "after": 0.2757 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9601, "expected_assists": 0.0765, "assist_rate": 0.0742, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.13, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.937, "minutes": 82.16, "total_pass": 47.995, "accurate_pass": 41.9283, "duels_won": 3.9182, "total_long_balls": 3.3316, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6549, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8999, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9846, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9437, "crosses_total": 1.7975, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 63.6357, "possession_lost": 9.1726, "dispossessed": 0.5222, "duels_lost": 2.6637, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.7116, "interceptions": 0.896, "tackles_won": 1.1576, "tackles": 1.576, "clearances": 2.3106, "total_contest": 0.5219, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.9034, "fouls": 0.3972, "fouls_drawn": 0.1897, "blocks": 0.3336, "big_chances_created": 0.0569, "big_chances_missed": 0.0354, "xgot": 0.0229, "ball_carries": 16.0921, "total_progression": 28.8478, "progressive_carries": 0.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.2757, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0363, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Shea Charles", "opponent_faced": "Shea Charles", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 0.9590, xG scale 1.3222, xA scale 1.3222, team xA 0.96 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9601, "expected_assists": 0.1011, "assist_rate": 0.0742, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.13, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.937, "minutes": 82.16, "total_pass": 47.995, "accurate_pass": 41.9283, "duels_won": 3.9182, "total_long_balls": 3.3316, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6549, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8999, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9846, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9437, "crosses_total": 1.7975, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 63.6357, "possession_lost": 9.1726, "dispossessed": 0.5222, "duels_lost": 2.6637, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.7116, "interceptions": 0.896, "tackles_won": 1.1576, "tackles": 1.576, "clearances": 2.3106, "total_contest": 0.5219, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.9034, "fouls": 0.3972, "fouls_drawn": 0.1897, "blocks": 0.3336, "big_chances_created": 0.0569, "big_chances_missed": 0.0354, "xgot": 0.0303, "ball_carries": 16.0921, "total_progression": 28.8478, "progressive_carries": 0.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.2757, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0363, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Shea Charles", "opponent_faced": "Shea Charles", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1011, "creation_factor": 0.9818 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.268, "squad_xg_sum": 0.959, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7236, "team_expected_assists": 0.9567, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3222, "xa_scale": 1.3222, "opponent_lambda": 1.513, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.038, "after": 0.0502 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0765, "after": 0.1011 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9601, "expected_assists": 0.1011, "assist_rate": 0.0742, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.13, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.937, "minutes": 82.16, "total_pass": 47.995, "accurate_pass": 41.9283, "duels_won": 3.9182, "total_long_balls": 3.3316, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6549, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8999, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9846, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9437, "crosses_total": 1.7975, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 63.6357, "possession_lost": 9.1726, "dispossessed": 0.5222, "duels_lost": 2.6637, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.7116, "interceptions": 0.896, "tackles_won": 1.1576, "tackles": 1.576, "clearances": 2.3106, "total_contest": 0.5219, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.9034, "fouls": 0.3972, "fouls_drawn": 0.1897, "blocks": 0.3336, "big_chances_created": 0.0569, "big_chances_missed": 0.0354, "xgot": 0.0303, "ball_carries": 16.0921, "total_progression": 28.8478, "progressive_carries": 0.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.2757, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0363, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Shea Charles", "opponent_faced": "Shea Charles", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1011, "creation_factor": 0.9818, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2108, "fifa_rank": 1442.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9601, "expected_assists": 0.1011, "assist_rate": 0.0742, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.13, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.937, "minutes": 82.16, "total_pass": 47.995, "accurate_pass": 41.9283, "duels_won": 3.9182, "total_long_balls": 3.3316, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6549, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8999, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9846, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9437, "crosses_total": 1.7975, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 63.6357, "possession_lost": 9.1726, "dispossessed": 0.5222, "duels_lost": 2.6637, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.7116, "interceptions": 0.896, "tackles_won": 1.1576, "tackles": 1.576, "clearances": 2.3106, "total_contest": 0.5219, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.9034, "fouls": 0.3972, "fouls_drawn": 0.1897, "blocks": 0.3336, "big_chances_created": 0.0569, "big_chances_missed": 0.0354, "xgot": 0.0303, "ball_carries": 16.0921, "total_progression": 28.8478, "progressive_carries": 0.4446, "shots_off_target": 0.2757, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0363, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Shea Charles", "opponent_faced": "Shea Charles", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.049, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1011, "creation_factor": 0.9818, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "scorer_weight": 0.0553, "squad_weight_total": 1.3379, "weight_share": 0.0413, "finishing_factor": 1.1011, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9601, "expected_assists": 0.1011, "assist_rate": 0.0742, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.13, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.937, "minutes": 82.16, "total_pass": 47.995, "accurate_pass": 41.9283, "duels_won": 3.9182, "total_long_balls": 3.3316, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6549, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8999, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9846, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9437, "crosses_total": 1.7975, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 63.6357, "possession_lost": 9.1726, "dispossessed": 0.5222, "duels_lost": 2.6637, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.7116, 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"name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1503 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0723 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0343 } ], "others": -0.0662, "total": 1.0246, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.15028 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.072292 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.045402 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.039045 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.034341 } ], "others_margin": -0.066353 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8356428146362305, "model_output": 6.8356, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0407 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.034 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0431, "total": 6.8356, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.040747 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034705 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.033996 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010303 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.00837 } ], "others_margin": -0.043126 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.721, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assists": 0.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0732, "expected_goals": 0.0817, "goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "shots_on_target": 0.2841, "total_shots": 1.0305, "rating": 6.8356, "minutes": 85.64, "total_pass": 36.5971, "accurate_pass": 29.6865, "duels_won": 7.2571, "total_long_balls": 1.5175, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9508, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6398, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4909, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.1956, "crosses_total": 0.3227, "crosses_accurate": 0.0848, "touches": 53.8, "possession_lost": 11.9443, "dispossessed": 1.4391, "duels_lost": 7.4856, "aerial_won": 3.3331, "aerial_lost": 2.273, "interceptions": 1.4449, "tackles_won": 1.2957, "tackles": 1.7219, "clearances": 1.6558, "total_contest": 2.3091, "won_contest": 1.4824, "challenges_lost": 1.1038, "fouls": 2.2108, "fouls_drawn": 0.7198, "blocks": 0.1925, "big_chances_created": 0.0704, "big_chances_missed": 0.0063, "xgot": 0.0783, "ball_carries": 12.7575, "total_progression": 30.2709, "progressive_carries": 0.7056, "shots_off_target": 0.7464 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0058, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.721, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assists": 0.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0732, "expected_goals": 0.0817, "goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "shots_on_target": 0.2841, "total_shots": 1.0305, "rating": 6.8356, "minutes": 85.64, "total_pass": 36.5971, "accurate_pass": 29.6865, "duels_won": 7.2571, "total_long_balls": 1.5175, 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"expected_assists": 0.0516, "assists": 0.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0732, "expected_goals": 0.0787, "goals": 0.0815, "goal_rate": 0.0815, "shots_on_target": 0.2736, "total_shots": 0.9924, "rating": 6.8356, "minutes": 85.64, "total_pass": 36.5971, "accurate_pass": 29.6865, "duels_won": 7.2571, "total_long_balls": 1.5175, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9508, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6398, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4909, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.1956, "crosses_total": 0.3227, "crosses_accurate": 0.0848, "touches": 53.8, "possession_lost": 11.9443, "dispossessed": 1.4391, "duels_lost": 7.4856, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.273, "interceptions": 1.4449, "tackles_won": 1.2957, "tackles": 1.7219, "clearances": 1.6558, "total_contest": 2.3091, "won_contest": 1.4824, "challenges_lost": 1.1038, "fouls": 2.2108, "fouls_drawn": 0.7198, "blocks": 0.1925, "big_chances_created": 0.0704, "big_chances_missed": 0.0061, "xgot": 0.0754, "ball_carries": 12.7575, 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"xg_override": 0.0787 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 3.3331, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0305, "after": 0.9924 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7464, "after": 0.7188 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2841, "after": 0.2736 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.721, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.0732, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0787, "goal_rate": 0.0815, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2736, "total_shots": 0.9924, "rating": 6.8356, "minutes": 85.64, "total_pass": 36.5971, "accurate_pass": 29.6865, "duels_won": 7.2571, "total_long_balls": 1.5175, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9508, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6398, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4909, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9574, 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midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 0.9590, xG scale 1.3222, xA scale 1.3222, team xA 0.96 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.721, "expected_assists": 0.0682, "assist_rate": 0.0732, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1041, "goal_rate": 0.0815, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2736, "total_shots": 0.9924, "rating": 6.8356, "minutes": 85.64, "total_pass": 36.5971, "accurate_pass": 29.6865, "duels_won": 7.2571, "total_long_balls": 1.5175, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9508, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6398, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4909, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.1956, "crosses_total": 0.3227, "crosses_accurate": 0.0848, "touches": 53.8, "possession_lost": 11.9443, "dispossessed": 1.4391, "duels_lost": 7.4856, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.273, "interceptions": 1.4449, "tackles_won": 1.2957, "tackles": 1.7219, "clearances": 1.6558, "total_contest": 2.3091, "won_contest": 1.4824, "challenges_lost": 1.1038, "fouls": 2.2108, "fouls_drawn": 0.7198, "blocks": 0.1925, "big_chances_created": 0.0704, "big_chances_missed": 0.0061, "xgot": 0.0997, "ball_carries": 12.7575, "total_progression": 30.2709, "progressive_carries": 0.7056, "shots_off_target": 0.7188, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.963, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Shea Charles", "opponent_faced": "Shea Charles", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1755 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.1029 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0983 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0993 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0458 } ], "others": 0.0523, "total": 1.2658, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.2261 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.112091 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.096483 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.088856 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.038501 } ], "others_margin": 0.042278 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.917063236236572, "model_output": 6.9171, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { 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"prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0079, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.251, "goals": 0.2968, "goal_rate": 0.2968, "shots_on_target": 0.7315, "total_shots": 2.2026, "expected_assists": 0.1131, "key_pass": 1.2758, "rating": 6.9171, "minutes": 84.87, "total_pass": 22.0648, "accurate_pass": 17.8113, "duels_won": 3.2517, "total_long_balls": 0.8147, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2349, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5681, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.9009, "crosses_total": 3.6855, "crosses_accurate": 0.5216, "touches": 40.6361, "possession_lost": 12.3664, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 4.2791, "aerial_lost": 0.6173, "total_contest": 1.9182, "won_contest": 0.4245, "ball_recovery": 3.5055, "challenges_lost": 0.5624, "fouls": 0.6602, "fouls_drawn": 1.5644, "assists": 0.2297, "assist_rate": 0.2297, "interceptions": 0.3741, 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"premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.0868 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363637.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363246.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.9684 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1917, "combined_rank_score": 743.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1434.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9264, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lukáš Horníček", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Juan Fuentes", "ranking": 1912 }, { "player_name": "Corey Hollman", "ranking": 1913 }, { "player_name": "Elia Caprile", "ranking": 1914 }, { "player_name": "Lee Taek-Geun", "ranking": 1915 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Augusto", "ranking": 1916 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Francisco Conceição", "ranking": 1918 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Svensson", "ranking": 1919 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Campuzano", "ranking": 1920 }, { "player_name": "Javier Altamirano", "ranking": 1921 }, { "player_name": "Kim Beom-Su", "ranking": 1922 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 5.342107450251778, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.151, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0199, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Newcastle", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (8 historical appearances) to 5.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.15); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8123, "goals_prevented": 0.0029, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 30.1912, "accurate_pass": 19.4283, "total_long_balls": 15.3919, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8281, "touches": 41.3233, "clearances": 2.2055, "ball_recovery": 6.9187, "high_claims": 0.1479, "punches": 1.169, "aerial_won": 0.4124, "sweeper_actions": 1.4625, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4625, "saves_inside_box": 2.185, "possession_lost": 11.5775, "duels_won": 0.5039, "duels_lost": 0.2756, "total_contest": 0.2181, "won_contest": 0.0915, "fouls": 0.149, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2643 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-25", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-12", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 5.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 7.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 16.2643, "accurateLongBalls": 4.8281, "possessionLostCtrl": 11.5775, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.3213, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.6082, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.5091 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.812330484390259, "model_output": 2.8123, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1712 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 2.8123, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060376 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.00888 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.00547 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.005321 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.00501 } ], "others_margin": -0.002568 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0028579821810126305, "model_output": 0.0029, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 0.0029, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.022812 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.020516 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019232 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.011772 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.011488 } ], "others_margin": 0.006765 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9264326095581055, "model_output": 6.9264, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0136, "total": 6.9264, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.026749 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.023319 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.021508 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01478 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01423 } ], "others_margin": -0.013589 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0199, quality 0.677)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8683, "goals_prevented": 0.0029, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 30.792, "accurate_pass": 19.8149, "total_long_balls": 15.6982, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9242, "touches": 42.1456, "clearances": 2.2494, "ball_recovery": 7.0564, "high_claims": 0.1508, "punches": 1.1923, "aerial_won": 0.4206, "sweeper_actions": 1.4916, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4916, "saves_inside_box": 2.2285, "possession_lost": 11.8079, "duels_won": 0.5139, "duels_lost": 0.2811, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.0933, "fouls": 0.152, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6299, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.588 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 25000000, "quality_factor": 0.6773, "boost_factor": 1.0199, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0333)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8202, "goals_prevented": 0.0029, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 30.792, "accurate_pass": 19.8149, "total_long_balls": 15.6982, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9242, "touches": 42.1456, "clearances": 2.2494, "ball_recovery": 7.0564, "high_claims": 0.1508, "punches": 1.1923, "aerial_won": 0.4206, "sweeper_actions": 1.4916, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4916, "saves_inside_box": 2.2285, "possession_lost": 11.8079, "duels_won": 0.5139, "duels_lost": 0.2811, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.0933, "fouls": 0.1469, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6299, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.588 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0333, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8683, "after": 2.8202 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.152, "after": 0.1469 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 5.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.15)", "stats": { "saves": 0.5286, "goals_prevented": 0.0005, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 5.34, "total_pass": 5.7717, "accurate_pass": 3.7142, "total_long_balls": 2.9425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.923, "touches": 7.8999, "clearances": 0.4216, "ball_recovery": 1.3227, "high_claims": 0.0283, "punches": 0.2235, "aerial_won": 0.0788, "sweeper_actions": 0.2796, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2796, "saves_inside_box": 0.4177, "possession_lost": 2.2133, "duels_won": 0.0963, "duels_lost": 0.0527, "total_contest": 0.0417, "won_contest": 0.0175, "fouls": 0.0275, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.151, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.34 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 5.34, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1874, "appearance_probability": 0.151 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.5286, "goals_prevented": 0.0005, "rating": 6.9264, "minutes": 5.34, "total_pass": 5.7717, "accurate_pass": 3.7142, "total_long_balls": 2.9425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.923, "touches": 7.8999, "clearances": 0.4216, "ball_recovery": 1.3227, "high_claims": 0.0283, "punches": 0.2235, "aerial_won": 0.0788, "sweeper_actions": 0.2796, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2796, "saves_inside_box": 0.4177, "possession_lost": 2.2133, "duels_won": 0.0963, "duels_lost": 0.0527, "total_contest": 0.0417, "won_contest": 0.0175, "fouls": 0.0275, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.151, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.34 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": 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"substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7174, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Amar Dedić", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alexsandro", "ranking": 3188 }, { "player_name": "Mërgim Vojvoda", "ranking": 3189 }, { "player_name": "Sorba Thomas", "ranking": 3190 }, { "player_name": "Samson Baidoo", "ranking": 3191 }, { "player_name": "Guéla Doué", "ranking": 3192 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Taylor Harwood-Bellis", "ranking": 3194 }, { "player_name": "Saïd El Mala", "ranking": 3195 }, { "player_name": "Fran García", "ranking": 3196 }, { "player_name": "Rômulo", "ranking": 3197 }, { "player_name": "David Zima", "ranking": 3198 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.645, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", 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"rows": 22117 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-25", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-12", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.7979, "aerialWon": 1.2408, "totalClearance_p90": 3.8732, "totalTackle": 1.1129, 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"name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.027613 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.024888 } ], "others_margin": 0.004535 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5036061406135559, "model_output": 0.5036, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7745 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0174 } ], "others": -0.0239, "total": 0.5036, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.816973 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.039861 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.039608 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.038192 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.032375 } ], "others_margin": -0.046454 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3080514967441559, "model_output": 0.3081, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1951 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4921 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": -0.0018, "total": 0.3081, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.867952 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.043759 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.040723 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.033572 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.021157 } ], "others_margin": -0.005712 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0078485012054443, "model_output": 1.0078, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1313 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1113 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0795 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0379 } ], "others": -0.0066, "total": 1.0078, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.978094 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.09067 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.070145 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.038483 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.036656 } ], "others_margin": -0.006516 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6596739888191223, "model_output": 0.6597, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6945 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": 0.0173, "total": 0.6597, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.70739 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.03811 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.019946 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.017491 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014264 } ], "others_margin": 0.026706 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2527608871459961, "model_output": 0.2528, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2251 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0315, "total": 0.2528, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.225109 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.018934 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014171 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013608 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.00989 } ], "others_margin": -0.03164 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.717353820800781, "model_output": 6.7174, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0122, "total": 6.7174, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015457 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015029 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01477 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.013447 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010522 } ], "others_margin": -0.0122 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0280, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4095, "tackles": 0.5177, "tackles_won": 0.3167, "clearances": 1.0361, "aerial_won": 0.6781, "total_shots": 0.2599, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 31.077, "accurate_pass": 24.7071, "duels_won": 3.5059, "total_long_balls": 2.4057, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9285, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8903, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1186, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5886, "crosses_total": 0.8102, "crosses_accurate": 0.4106, "touches": 48.847, "possession_lost": 10.437, "dispossessed": 0.1789, "duels_lost": 3.3188, "aerial_lost": 1.1382, "total_contest": 1.5539, "won_contest": 0.5853, "ball_recovery": 4.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.2475, "fouls": 0.7857, "fouls_drawn": 0.5009, "blocks": 0.2391, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3768, "assist_rate": 0.3768, "expected_goals": 0.0247, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2475, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6209, "total_progression": 58.5282, "progressive_carries": 1.2631, "key_pass": 0.7165, "shots_off_target": 0.2599 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0394)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3934, "tackles": 0.5177, "tackles_won": 0.3091, "clearances": 1.0361, "aerial_won": 0.6781, "total_shots": 0.2545, "rating": 6.7174, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 31.077, "accurate_pass": 24.7071, "duels_won": 3.5059, "total_long_balls": 2.4057, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9285, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8903, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1186, 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"contribution": 0.0052 } ], "others": 0.0009, "total": 0.0854, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.599446 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.411911 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.199894 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.178963 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.064048 } ], "others_margin": 0.011978 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.328606516122818, "model_output": 0.3286, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3377 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2168 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0669 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0405 } ], "others": -0.0345, "total": 0.3286, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.337663 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.216764 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.066902 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040925 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.040542 } ], "others_margin": -0.034616 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.652072906494141, "model_output": 6.6521, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0290, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2191, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assists": 0.0309, "assist_rate": 0.0309, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goals": 0.0387, "goal_rate": 0.0387, "shots_on_target": 0.0879, "total_shots": 0.3382, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.449, "accurate_pass": 2.109, "duels_won": 1.718, "total_long_balls": 0.34, "accurate_long_balls": 0.34, "total_own_half_passes": 1.029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.029, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.42, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.08, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.565, "possession_lost": 1.598, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.309, "aerial_won": 0.689, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.629, "tackles": 1.029, "clearances": 1.089, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.34, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.14, "total_progression": 0.8936, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2503 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.029, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0054)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2191, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assists": 0.0307, "assist_rate": 0.0307, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goals": 0.0385, "goal_rate": 0.0385, "shots_on_target": 0.0874, "total_shots": 0.3364, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.449, "accurate_pass": 2.109, "duels_won": 1.718, "total_long_balls": 0.34, "accurate_long_balls": 0.34, "total_own_half_passes": 1.029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.029, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.42, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.08, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.565, "possession_lost": 1.598, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.309, "aerial_won": 0.689, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6299, "tackles": 1.029, "clearances": 1.089, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.3382, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.14, "total_progression": 0.8936, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2503 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0054, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1586, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.3 to 18.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goals": 0.05, "goal_rate": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.53, "projection_minutes": 14.27, "minutes_scale": 1.2985, "appearance_probability": 0.71 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goals": 0.05, "goal_rate": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, 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0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 0.9590, xG scale 1.3222, xA scale 1.3222, team xA 0.96 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.05, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.325, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1834, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.268, "squad_xg_sum": 0.959, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7236, "team_expected_assists": 0.9567, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3222, "xa_scale": 1.3222, "opponent_lambda": 1.513, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.71 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.05, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1135, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0521, quality 0.853)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0649, "goals": 0.0843, "goal_rate": 0.0843, "shots_on_target": 0.2913, "total_shots": 0.6958, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "key_pass": 0.4627, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 13.8154, "accurate_pass": 10.1933, "duels_won": 2.9245, "total_long_balls": 0.5248, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5248, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1678, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0036, "crosses_total": 1.3719, "crosses_accurate": 0.2411, "touches": 23.7654, "possession_lost": 7.6475, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 3.9405, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.4815, "won_contest": 1.1978, "ball_recovery": 1.5344, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 0.8472, "fouls_drawn": 0.8897, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3792, "tackles": 0.6629, "clearances": 0.4823, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4823, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 7.4654, "total_progression": 33.9917, "progressive_carries": 1.725, "shots_off_target": 0.4044 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 60000000, "quality_factor": 0.8526, "boost_factor": 1.0521, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.3 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0783, "goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.94, "projection_minutes": 22.33, "minutes_scale": 1.2063, "appearance_probability": 0.633 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0783, "goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0783, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 0.9590, xG scale 1.3222, xA scale 1.3222, team xA 0.96 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1824, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.268, "squad_xg_sum": 0.959, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7236, "team_expected_assists": 0.9567, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3222, "xa_scale": 1.3222, "opponent_lambda": 1.513, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.633 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0783, "after": 0.0655 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0513, "after": 0.0429 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 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"importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2633 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0519 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.021 } ], "others": 0.0104, "total": 0.4457, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.478976 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.114269 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075871 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.071865 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.049399 } ], "others_margin": 0.02346 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.69909143447876, "model_output": 6.6991, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0633 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0167, "total": 6.6991, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063342 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014945 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.011693 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010548 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010311 } ], "others_margin": -0.016679 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0468, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0782, "goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.2518, "total_shots": 0.7253, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 23.4, "total_pass": 9.7883, "accurate_pass": 7.0439, "duels_won": 2.2239, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4998, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2416, "crosses_total": 2.4112, "crosses_accurate": 0.1734, "touches": 20.3532, "possession_lost": 8.9682, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 4.1328, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.9363, "won_contest": 0.3467, "ball_recovery": 1.3127, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.7379, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0444, "tackles": 1.0444, "clearances": 0.2039, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1102, "offsides": 0.8328, "ball_carries": 7.7059, "total_progression": 37.0907, "progressive_carries": 1.8043, "shots_off_target": 0.4735 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0468, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.4 to 12.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0421, "goals": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3909, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.2748, "accurate_pass": 3.7959, "duels_won": 1.1984, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3635, "crosses_total": 1.2994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0934, "touches": 10.9681, "possession_lost": 4.8329, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 2.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.0435, "won_contest": 0.1868, "ball_recovery": 0.7074, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.3976, "fouls_drawn": 0.0934, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "tackles": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.1099, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0594, "offsides": 0.8328, "ball_carries": 4.1526, "total_progression": 19.9878, "progressive_carries": 0.9723, "shots_off_target": 0.2552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.61, "projection_minutes": 23.4, "minutes_scale": 0.5389, "appearance_probability": 0.75 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0421, "goals": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3909, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.2748, "accurate_pass": 3.7959, "duels_won": 1.1984, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3635, "crosses_total": 1.2994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0934, "touches": 10.9681, "possession_lost": 4.8329, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 2.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.0435, "won_contest": 0.1868, "ball_recovery": 0.7074, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.3976, "fouls_drawn": 0.0934, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "tackles": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.1099, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0594, "offsides": 0.8328, "ball_carries": 4.1526, "total_progression": 19.9878, "progressive_carries": 0.9723, "shots_off_target": 0.2552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0421, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3909, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.2748, "accurate_pass": 3.7959, "duels_won": 1.1984, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3635, "crosses_total": 1.2994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0934, "touches": 10.9681, "possession_lost": 4.8329, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 2.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.0435, "won_contest": 0.1868, "ball_recovery": 0.7074, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.3976, "fouls_drawn": 0.0934, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "tackles": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.1099, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0594, "offsides": 0.8328, "ball_carries": 4.1526, "total_progression": 19.9878, "progressive_carries": 0.9723, "shots_off_target": 0.2552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 0.9590, xG scale 1.3222, xA scale 1.3222, team xA 0.96 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3909, "expected_assists": 0.022, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.2748, "accurate_pass": 3.7959, "duels_won": 1.1984, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3635, "crosses_total": 1.2994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0934, "touches": 10.9681, "possession_lost": 4.8329, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 2.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.0435, "won_contest": 0.1868, "ball_recovery": 0.7074, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.3976, "fouls_drawn": 0.0934, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "tackles": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.1099, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 0.8328, "ball_carries": 4.1526, "total_progression": 19.9878, "progressive_carries": 0.9723, "shots_off_target": 0.2552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9425, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.268, "squad_xg_sum": 0.959, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7236, "team_expected_assists": 0.9567, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3222, "xa_scale": 1.3222, "opponent_lambda": 1.513, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.75 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3909, "expected_assists": 0.022, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.2748, "accurate_pass": 3.7959, "duels_won": 1.1984, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3635, "crosses_total": 1.2994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0934, "touches": 10.9681, "possession_lost": 4.8329, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 2.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.0435, "won_contest": 0.1868, "ball_recovery": 0.7074, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.3976, "fouls_drawn": 0.0934, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "tackles": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.1099, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 0.8328, "ball_carries": 4.1526, "total_progression": 19.9878, "progressive_carries": 0.9723, "shots_off_target": 0.2552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9425, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1307, "fifa_rank": 1081.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3909, "expected_assists": 0.022, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.2748, "accurate_pass": 3.7959, "duels_won": 1.1984, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3635, "crosses_total": 1.2994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0934, "touches": 10.9681, "possession_lost": 4.8329, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 2.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.0435, "won_contest": 0.1868, "ball_recovery": 0.7074, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.3976, "fouls_drawn": 0.0934, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "tackles": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.1099, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 0.8328, "ball_carries": 4.1526, "total_progression": 19.9878, "progressive_carries": 0.9723, "shots_off_target": 0.2552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0406, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9425, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0406, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "scorer_weight": 0.0393, "squad_weight_total": 1.3379, "weight_share": 0.0294, "finishing_factor": 0.9425, "appearance_weight": 0.75, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3909, "expected_assists": 0.022, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.2748, "accurate_pass": 3.7959, "duels_won": 1.1984, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3635, "crosses_total": 1.2994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0934, "touches": 10.9681, "possession_lost": 4.8329, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 2.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.0435, "won_contest": 0.1868, "ball_recovery": 0.7074, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.3976, "fouls_drawn": 0.0934, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "tackles": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.1099, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 0.8328, 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"ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363874.0, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0919, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, 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0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2633 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0519 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.021 } ], "others": 0.0104, "total": 0.4457, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.478976 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.114269 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075871 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.071865 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.049399 } ], "others_margin": 0.02346 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.69909143447876, "model_output": 6.6991, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0633 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0167, "total": 6.6991, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063342 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014945 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.011693 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010548 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010311 } ], "others_margin": -0.016679 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0468, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0782, "goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.2518, "total_shots": 0.7253, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "key_pass": 0.4665, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 23.4, "total_pass": 9.7883, "accurate_pass": 7.0439, "duels_won": 2.2239, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4998, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2416, "crosses_total": 2.4112, "crosses_accurate": 0.1734, "touches": 20.3532, "possession_lost": 8.9682, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 4.1328, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.9363, "won_contest": 0.3467, "ball_recovery": 1.3127, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.7379, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0444, "tackles": 1.0444, "clearances": 0.2039, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1102, "offsides": 0.8328, "ball_carries": 7.7059, "total_progression": 37.0907, "progressive_carries": 1.8043, "shots_off_target": 0.4735 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0468, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.4 to 12.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0421, "goals": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3909, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.2748, "accurate_pass": 3.7959, "duels_won": 1.1984, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3635, "crosses_total": 1.2994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0934, "touches": 10.9681, "possession_lost": 4.8329, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 2.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.0435, "won_contest": 0.1868, "ball_recovery": 0.7074, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.3976, "fouls_drawn": 0.0934, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "tackles": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.1099, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0594, "offsides": 0.8328, "ball_carries": 4.1526, "total_progression": 19.9878, "progressive_carries": 0.9723, "shots_off_target": 0.2552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.61, "projection_minutes": 23.4, "minutes_scale": 0.5389, "appearance_probability": 0.75 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0421, "goals": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3909, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.2748, "accurate_pass": 3.7959, "duels_won": 1.1984, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3635, "crosses_total": 1.2994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0934, "touches": 10.9681, "possession_lost": 4.8329, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 2.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.0435, "won_contest": 0.1868, "ball_recovery": 0.7074, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.3976, "fouls_drawn": 0.0934, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "tackles": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.1099, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0594, "offsides": 0.8328, "ball_carries": 4.1526, "total_progression": 19.9878, "progressive_carries": 0.9723, "shots_off_target": 0.2552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0421, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3909, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.2748, "accurate_pass": 3.7959, "duels_won": 1.1984, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3635, "crosses_total": 1.2994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0934, "touches": 10.9681, "possession_lost": 4.8329, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 2.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.0435, "won_contest": 0.1868, "ball_recovery": 0.7074, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.3976, "fouls_drawn": 0.0934, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "tackles": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.1099, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0594, "offsides": 0.8328, "ball_carries": 4.1526, "total_progression": 19.9878, "progressive_carries": 0.9723, "shots_off_target": 0.2552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 0.9590, xG scale 1.3222, xA scale 1.3222, team xA 0.96 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3909, "expected_assists": 0.022, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.2748, "accurate_pass": 3.7959, "duels_won": 1.1984, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3635, "crosses_total": 1.2994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0934, "touches": 10.9681, "possession_lost": 4.8329, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 2.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.0435, "won_contest": 0.1868, "ball_recovery": 0.7074, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.3976, "fouls_drawn": 0.0934, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "tackles": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.1099, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 0.8328, "ball_carries": 4.1526, "total_progression": 19.9878, "progressive_carries": 0.9723, "shots_off_target": 0.2552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9425, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.268, "squad_xg_sum": 0.959, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7236, "team_expected_assists": 0.9567, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3222, "xa_scale": 1.3222, "opponent_lambda": 1.513, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.75 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"offsides": 0.8328, "ball_carries": 4.1526, "total_progression": 19.9878, "progressive_carries": 0.9723, "shots_off_target": 0.2552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9425, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1307, "fifa_rank": 1081.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3909, "expected_assists": 0.022, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.2748, "accurate_pass": 3.7959, "duels_won": 1.1984, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3635, "crosses_total": 1.2994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0934, "touches": 10.9681, "possession_lost": 4.8329, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 2.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.0435, "won_contest": 0.1868, "ball_recovery": 0.7074, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.3976, "fouls_drawn": 0.0934, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "tackles": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.1099, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, 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"description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3909, "expected_assists": 0.022, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.6991, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 5.2748, "accurate_pass": 3.7959, "duels_won": 1.1984, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3635, "crosses_total": 1.2994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0934, "touches": 10.9681, "possession_lost": 4.8329, "dispossessed": 0.9724, "duels_lost": 2.2271, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 1.0435, "won_contest": 0.1868, "ball_recovery": 0.7074, "challenges_lost": 0.3773, "fouls": 0.3976, "fouls_drawn": 0.0934, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "tackles": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.1099, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 0.8328, 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"home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4363, "combined_rank_score": 2376.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3930.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.439, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.71, "market_value_adjustment": 1.029, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Newcastle", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 15.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (3 historical appearances) to 18.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.71); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 15.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2129, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "assists": 0.03, "assist_rate": 0.03, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.0376, 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.129248 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.093899 } ], "others_margin": -0.109625 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.037638574838638306, "model_output": 0.0376, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": 0.0015, "total": 0.0376, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 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"total": 0.0854, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.599446 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.411911 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.199894 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.178963 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.064048 } ], "others_margin": 0.011978 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.328606516122818, "model_output": 0.3286, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3377 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2168 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0669 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0405 } ], "others": -0.0345, "total": 0.3286, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.337663 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.216764 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.066902 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040925 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.040542 } ], "others_margin": -0.034616 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.652072906494141, "model_output": 6.6521, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0633 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.052 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0354, "total": 6.6521, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063327 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051962 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034819 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011541 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.008343 } ], "others_margin": -0.03534 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0290, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2191, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assists": 0.0309, "assist_rate": 0.0309, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goals": 0.0387, "goal_rate": 0.0387, "shots_on_target": 0.0879, "total_shots": 0.3382, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.449, "accurate_pass": 2.109, "duels_won": 1.718, "total_long_balls": 0.34, "accurate_long_balls": 0.34, "total_own_half_passes": 1.029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.029, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.42, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.08, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.565, "possession_lost": 1.598, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.309, "aerial_won": 0.689, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.629, "tackles": 1.029, "clearances": 1.089, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.34, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.14, "total_progression": 0.8936, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2503 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.029, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0054)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2191, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assists": 0.0307, "assist_rate": 0.0307, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "goals": 0.0385, "goal_rate": 0.0385, "shots_on_target": 0.0874, "total_shots": 0.3364, "rating": 6.6521, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.449, "accurate_pass": 2.109, "duels_won": 1.718, "total_long_balls": 0.34, "accurate_long_balls": 0.34, "total_own_half_passes": 1.029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.029, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.42, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.08, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.565, "possession_lost": 1.598, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.309, "aerial_won": 0.689, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6299, "tackles": 1.029, "clearances": 1.089, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.3382, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.14, "total_progression": 0.8936, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2503 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0054, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1586, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.3 to 18.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2845, 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"items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2127 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0339, "total": 0.4398, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.367431 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.047928 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.040581 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.034822 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.031137 } ], "others_margin": -0.074397 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.710913181304932, "model_output": 6.7109, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0783, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 0.9590, xG scale 1.3222, xA scale 1.3222, team xA 0.96 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3514, "total_shots": 0.8393, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "key_pass": 0.5581, "rating": 6.7109, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 16.6652, "accurate_pass": 12.296, "duels_won": 3.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6331, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6546, "crosses_total": 1.6549, "crosses_accurate": 0.2908, "touches": 28.6677, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 1.1813, "duels_lost": 4.7533, "aerial_lost": 0.651, "total_contest": 1.7871, "won_contest": 1.4449, "ball_recovery": 1.8509, "challenges_lost": 0.9773, "fouls": 1.022, "fouls_drawn": 1.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4574, "tackles": 0.7996, "clearances": 0.5818, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.6203, "ball_carries": 9.0053, "total_progression": 41.0034, "progressive_carries": 2.0808, "shots_off_target": 0.4878, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.633, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.94, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1824, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.268, "squad_xg_sum": 0.959, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7236, "team_expected_assists": 0.9567, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3222, "xa_scale": 1.3222, "opponent_lambda": 1.513, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.633 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0783, "after": 0.0655 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0513, "after": 0.0429 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"shots_off_target": 0.1221, "blocks": 0.0732, "big_chances_created": 0.0244, "big_chances_missed": 0.0122, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 6.8358, "total_progression": 18.3102, "progressive_carries": 1.4648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9255, "creation_factor": 0.9517, "fifa_overall": null }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "ranking_match": "none" } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.415, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "total_shots": 0.3174, "total_pass": 11.9627, "accurate_pass": 9.7654, "ball_recovery": 1.1963, "duels_won": 1.4404, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 21.97, "total_long_balls": 0.9765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9062, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6386, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4179, "crosses_total": 0.3174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1465, "touches": 15.8688, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 0.9765, "aerial_won": 0.293, "aerial_lost": 0.9, "interceptions": 0.2441, "tackles_won": 0.3174, "tackles": 0.4394, "clearances": 0.1709, "total_contest": 0.9033, "won_contest": 0.5127, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 0.3662, "fouls_drawn": 0.2441, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "shots_off_target": 0.1221, "blocks": 0.0732, "big_chances_created": 0.0244, "big_chances_missed": 0.0122, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 6.8358, "total_progression": 18.3102, "progressive_carries": 1.4648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0129, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9255, "creation_factor": 0.9517, "fifa_overall": null }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0129, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "scorer_weight": 0.0121, "squad_weight_total": 1.3379, "weight_share": 0.0091, "finishing_factor": 0.9255, "appearance_weight": 0.499, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.415, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "total_shots": 0.3174, "total_pass": 11.9627, "accurate_pass": 9.7654, "ball_recovery": 1.1963, "duels_won": 1.4404, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 21.97, "total_long_balls": 0.9765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4883, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8827, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9062, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6386, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4179, "crosses_total": 0.3174, "crosses_accurate": 0.1465, "touches": 15.8688, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 0.9765, "aerial_won": 0.293, "aerial_lost": 0.9, "interceptions": 0.2441, "tackles_won": 0.3174, "tackles": 0.4394, "clearances": 0.1709, "total_contest": 0.9033, "won_contest": 0.5127, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 0.3662, "fouls_drawn": 0.2441, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "shots_off_target": 0.1221, "blocks": 0.0732, "big_chances_created": 0.0244, "big_chances_missed": 0.0122, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 6.8358, "total_progression": 18.3102, "progressive_carries": 1.4648, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.956, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0129, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0199, "finishing_factor": 0.9255, "creation_factor": 0.9517, "fifa_overall": null }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0199, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "provider_weight": 0.0193, "squad_weight_total": 0.9545, "weight_share": 0.0202, "creation_factor": 0.9517, "appearance_weight": 0.499, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.27, "expected_assists": 0.96, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 508, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.92, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Alex Iwobi", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Lewis Hall" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.831, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "xg_contribution": 0.1657, "xg_multiplier": 0.8678, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Hall", "role": "RB", "market_value": 52000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.61 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Iwobi (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Lewis Hall in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €52M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.166 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Emile Smith Rowe", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 15600000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.586, "defenders": [ "Fabian Schär" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.524, "xg_contribution": 0.0984, "xg_multiplier": 1.0652, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Fabian Schär", "role": "LB", "market_value": 2900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.476 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emile Smith Rowe (RW) is slightly favored against Fabian Schär in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.098 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Josh King", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Lewis Miley", "Joelinton" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.214, "xg_contribution": 0.1703, "xg_multiplier": 0.9615, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.786 }, { "player": "Joelinton", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.786 } ], "duel_analysis": "Josh King (CAM) is evenly matched against Lewis Miley and Joelinton in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.170 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Sven Botman", "Malick Thiaw" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.774, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2728, "xg_multiplier": 0.8863, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo García (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Sven Botman and Malick Thiaw in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.273 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Shea Charles", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Lewis Miley" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "xg_contribution": 0.0768, "xg_multiplier": 0.9637, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 } ], "duel_analysis": "Shea Charles (CDM) is evenly matched against Lewis Miley in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sander Berge", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Lewis Miley" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "xg_contribution": 0.0606, "xg_multiplier": 1.0108, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.573 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sander Berge (CDM) is evenly matched against Lewis Miley in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Joe Willock", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "David Affengruber" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.612, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.454, "xg_contribution": 0.1568, "xg_multiplier": 0.9619, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Affengruber", "role": "RB", "market_value": 18100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.546 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joe Willock (LW) is evenly matched against David Affengruber in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.157 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sean Steur", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Antonee Robinson" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "xg_contribution": 0.0327, "xg_multiplier": 0.9295, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonee Robinson", "role": "LB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sean Steur (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Antonee Robinson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.033 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Nico González", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Shea Charles", "Sander Berge" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "xg_contribution": 0.0434, "xg_multiplier": 1.052, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Shea Charles", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 }, { "player": "Sander Berge", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nico González (CAM) is evenly matched against Shea Charles and Sander Berge in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €25M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Harvey Barnes", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.602, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "xg_contribution": 0.2652, "xg_multiplier": 1.0566, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762 }, { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harvey Barnes (ST) is evenly matched against Calvin Bassey and Timothy Castagne in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.265 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lewis Miley", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Shea Charles" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "xg_contribution": 0.038, "xg_multiplier": 1.0363, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Shea Charles", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.555 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewis Miley (CDM) is evenly matched against Shea Charles in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Joelinton", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Shea Charles" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "xg_contribution": 0.0787, "xg_multiplier": 0.963, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Shea Charles", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joelinton (CDM) is evenly matched against Shea Charles in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.723, "away_midfield_power": 0.744, "home_creative_power": 0.658, "away_creative_power": 0.59, "home_defensive_power": 0.55, "away_defensive_power": 0.59, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.493, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Alex Iwobi", "Josh King", "Shea Charles", "Sander Berge", "Emile Smith Rowe" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Lewis Miley", "Nico González", "Joelinton", "Joe Willock", "Sean Steur" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Josh King vs Nico González", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.002, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.004 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.513, "away_lambda": 1.268, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Alex Iwobi": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Hall", "Joe Willock" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Emile Smith Rowe": { "opponents": [ "Fabian Schär", "Sean Steur" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Josh King": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Miley", "Joelinton", "Nico González" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo García": { "opponents": [ "Sven Botman", "Malick Thiaw" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Shea Charles": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Miley", "Nico González", "Joelinton" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sander Berge": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Miley", "Nico González", "Joelinton" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Affengruber": { "opponents": [ "Joe Willock" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonee Robinson": { "opponents": [ "Sean Steur" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Calvin Bassey": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Timothy Castagne": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bernd Leno": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes", "Sean Steur" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Lewis Hall": { "opponents": [ "Alex Iwobi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Fabian Schär": { "opponents": [ "Emile Smith Rowe" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lewis Miley": { "opponents": [ "Josh King", "Shea Charles", "Sander Berge" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joelinton": { "opponents": [ "Josh King", "Shea Charles", "Sander Berge" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sven Botman": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Malick Thiaw": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joe Willock": { "opponents": [ "David Affengruber", "Alex Iwobi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sean Steur": { "opponents": [ "Antonee Robinson", "Emile Smith Rowe" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nico González": { "opponents": [ "Shea Charles", "Sander Berge", "Josh King" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Harvey Barnes": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Nick Pope": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Alex Iwobi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Josh King vs Nico González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 0.61. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.998, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0101, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1667, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9056, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9438, "home_midfield_factor": 1.002, "away_midfield_factor": 1.004, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6609, "away_avg_quality": 0.7055, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0445, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.2642, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.3391, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.1147, "elite_count_gap": -2, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0989, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0544, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0317, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8446, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.996 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.002, "result": 0.9979 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9979 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.2965 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.01, "result": 1.3095 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.3235 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9056, "result": 1.1986 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0101, "result": 1.2086 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2086, "result": 1.2086, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0989, "factor": 0.9683, "pre": 1.2086, "result": 1.1704 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1704 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1765, "result": 1.3465 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.3528 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3528, "result": 1.353, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.488 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 1.488, "result": 1.4454, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.445 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.445 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.445, "result": 1.445, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.056, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.513 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6148, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8236 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.004, "result": 0.8269 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8269 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8269 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0185, "result": 0.8422 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.998, "result": 0.8405 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9438, "result": 0.7933 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1667, "result": 0.96 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.96, "result": 0.96, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0989, "factor": 1.0544, "pre": 0.96, "result": 1.0123 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0123 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1358, "result": 1.1478 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.1922 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1922, "result": 1.192, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.156 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 1.156, "result": 1.1891, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.189 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.189 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.189, "result": 1.189, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.056, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.268 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1765, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1358, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Fulham", "away_squad": "Newcastle United", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.445, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.189, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3528, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1922, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.056, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.513, "final_away_lambda": 1.268 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.01, "attack_index": 0.929, "defense_concede_index": 1.111, "form_multiplier": 0.987, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.27, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.52, "team_ppg": 1.14, "opponent_ppg": 1.37 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0185, "attack_index": 1.038, "defense_concede_index": 1.002, "form_multiplier": 1.013, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.42, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.37, "team_ppg": 1.37, "opponent_ppg": 1.14 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Fulham vs Newcastle. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.353, Away 1.192). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.513, Away 1.268 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 7, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Fulham", "away_squad": "Newcastle United", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.513, "away_lambda": 1.268, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.353, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.192 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.056, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:32:35Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }