{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261107", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-2", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1047, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0406, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1047, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1867, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1047 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0979 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0924 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0872 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.0787 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0415, "0-1": 0.0924, "0-2": 0.1047, "0-3": 0.0787, "0-4": 0.0444, "0-5": 0.02, "0-6": 0.0075, "0-7": 0.0024, "0-8": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.0381, "1-1": 0.0872, "1-2": 0.0979, "1-3": 0.0736, "1-4": 0.0415, "1-5": 0.0187, "1-6": 0.007, "1-7": 0.0023, "1-8": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.018, "2-1": 0.0406, "2-2": 0.0458, "2-3": 0.0344, "2-4": 0.0194, "2-5": 0.0088, "2-6": 0.0033, "2-7": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0056, "3-1": 0.0126, "3-2": 0.0143, "3-3": 0.0107, "3-4": 0.006, "3-5": 0.0027, "3-6": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0013, "4-1": 0.003, "4-2": 0.0033, "4-3": 0.0025, "4-4": 0.0014, "4-5": 0.0006, "5-1": 0.0006, "5-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.1418, "draw": 0.1867, "away_win": 0.6715 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6182, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3818, "btts_yes": 0.5442, "btts_no": 0.4558, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1048, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3926 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.79, "MCR": 6.89, "ATR": 6.85, "GK": 6.93 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.96, "MCR": 7.05, "ATR": 7.84, "GK": 7.0 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Valencia vs Real Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Valencia 2W-1D-7L vs Real Madrid over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kylian Mbappé (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Javier Guerra vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.44, Away: 1.45. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 0.935, "away_lambda": 2.256, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 7, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 0.9643, "away_multiplier": 1.0357 }, "modal_scoreline": "0-2", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1047, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.1418, "draw": 0.1867, "away_win": 0.6715 }, "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6715, "fair_spread": -1.321, "fair_total": 3.191, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 0.935, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 2.256, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6182, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5442, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1048, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3926, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Javier Guerra (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.1621, "probability": 0.1496, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 1.1238, "probability": 0.675, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Javier Guerra (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.1517, "probability": 0.1408, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Arda Güler (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.313, "probability": 0.2688, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.191, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 970, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.1, "possession_home_pct": 46.3, "possession_away_pct": 53.7, "notes": "Real Madrid projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6715, "script": "Real Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -1.32 goals and fair total 3.19.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Valencia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Madrid chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Mouctar Diakhaby, César Tárrega in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Real Madrid projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Valencia: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Harvey Elliott, Hugo Duro, Umar Sadiq.", "Real Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé (2); bench watchlist: Yan Diomande, Eduardo Camavinga.", "Assist usage should flow through Arda Güler; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.60 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Valencia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Madrid.", "Valencia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Valencia": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Stole Dimitrievski": { "player_id": 97951, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 188, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1221, "rating": 6.9293, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 44, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.9391, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 13.9178, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.4627, "shots_faced": 21.4, "expected_saves": 5.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.8, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Arda Güler", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421092.0, "match_date": "2026-11-01 17:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Valencia", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16421089.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.312 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421074.0, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.1026 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421064.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 9, "goals_prevented": 0.2949 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.3169 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334.0, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3457 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416330.0, "match_date": "2026-09-11", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 29, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.2532 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.0829 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416291.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -2.2955 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049.0, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.4455 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2524, "combined_rank_score": 913.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 280.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.065, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 1546.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9293, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Stole Dimitrievski", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Thiago Almada", "ranking": 2519 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Ramsey", "ranking": 2520 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Singo", "ranking": 2521 }, { "player_name": "Noah Okafor", "ranking": 2522 }, { "player_name": "Noah Atubolu", "ranking": 2523 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Samuele Ricci", "ranking": 2525 }, { "player_name": "Yahir Salazar", "ranking": 2526 }, { "player_name": "Jae-hwan Lee", "ranking": 2527 }, { "player_name": "Yanis Lhéry", "ranking": 2528 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Kevin Aquilina", "ranking": 2529 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9971, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Valencia", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 30 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Valencia, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8358, "goals_prevented": -0.1225, "rating": 6.9293, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.5229, "accurate_pass": 19.8472, "total_long_balls": 18.4309, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4172, "touches": 43.9533, "clearances": 1.0286, "ball_recovery": 8.799, "high_claims": 1.3948, "punches": 0.9418, "aerial_won": 0.3018, "sweeper_actions": 0.854, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8393, "saves_inside_box": 1.8205, "possession_lost": 13.9583, "duels_won": 0.546, "duels_lost": 0.0155, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2389, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5037, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.1629 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-11", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 16.1629, "accurateLongBalls": 5.4172, "possessionLostCtrl": 13.9583, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.0242, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.3503, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.8394 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8357880115509033, "model_output": 2.8358, "scale": "count per 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"rating", "margin": -0.032825 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.023184 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.015109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012645 } ], "others_margin": 0.000437 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.817825794219971, "model_output": 6.8178, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 6.8178, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021444 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.014841 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01251 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.009548 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.00921 } ], "others_margin": -0.005066 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1324, "tackles": 1.2097, "tackles_won": 0.6927, "clearances": 5.3656, "aerial_won": 1.8003, "total_shots": 0.5579, "rating": 6.8178, "minutes": 88.26, "total_pass": 50.067, "accurate_pass": 42.0074, "duels_won": 3.8032, "total_long_balls": 6.2737, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5726, "total_own_half_passes": 28.4003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0553, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9522, "crosses_total": 0.1786, "crosses_accurate": 0.1359, "touches": 62.6363, "possession_lost": 8.7433, "dispossessed": 0.1486, "duels_lost": 3.2382, "aerial_lost": 1.2731, "total_contest": 0.4748, "won_contest": 0.3567, "ball_recovery": 2.861, "challenges_lost": 0.7423, "fouls": 0.9561, "fouls_drawn": 0.5395, "blocks": 0.7135, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0313, "expected_assists": 0.0277, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.4426, "total_progression": 54.6054, "progressive_carries": 0.5315, "key_pass": 0.2238, "shots_off_target": 0.5579, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.504, "opponent_faced": "Thiago Pitarch", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.94 (squad xG sum 0.7768, xG scale 1.2036, xA scale 1.2036, team xA 0.72 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1324, "tackles": 1.2097, "tackles_won": 0.6927, "clearances": 5.3656, "aerial_won": 1.8003, "total_shots": 0.5579, "rating": 6.8178, "minutes": 88.26, "total_pass": 50.067, "accurate_pass": 42.0074, "duels_won": 3.8032, "total_long_balls": 6.2737, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5726, "total_own_half_passes": 28.4003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0553, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6668, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9522, "crosses_total": 0.1786, "crosses_accurate": 0.1359, "touches": 62.6363, "possession_lost": 8.7433, "dispossessed": 0.1486, "duels_lost": 3.2382, "aerial_lost": 1.2731, "total_contest": 0.4748, "won_contest": 0.3567, "ball_recovery": 2.861, "challenges_lost": 0.7423, "fouls": 0.9561, "fouls_drawn": 0.5395, "blocks": 0.7135, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.4426, "total_progression": 54.6054, "progressive_carries": 0.5315, "key_pass": 0.2238, "shots_off_target": 0.5579, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.504, "opponent_faced": "Thiago Pitarch", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.935, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7768, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5964, "team_expected_assists": 0.7179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7678, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2036, "xa_scale": 1.2036, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0313, "after": 0.0377 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0277, "after": 0.0333 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016507 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.015681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013809 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010649 } ], "others_margin": -0.005466 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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5.9014, "dispossessed": 0.1102, "duels_lost": 2.6016, "aerial_lost": 0.7266, "total_contest": 0.7977, "won_contest": 0.7083, "ball_recovery": 3.7802, "challenges_lost": 0.894, "fouls": 0.9353, "fouls_drawn": 0.8292, "blocks": 0.1812, "goals": 0.0052, "goal_rate": 0.0052, "assists": 0.0313, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.0598, "shots_on_target": 0.3151, "big_chances_created": 0.1626, "xgot": 0.0276, "ball_carries": 11.6744, "total_progression": 55.6098, "progressive_carries": 1.4952, "key_pass": 1.1732, "shots_off_target": 0.2308, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.3, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.317, "opponent_faced": "Arda Güler", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Arda Güler", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9221, "tackles": 1.7887, "tackles_won": 1.0679, "clearances": 2.4587, "aerial_won": 0.6731, "total_shots": 0.5459, "rating": 6.7518, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 30.0235, "accurate_pass": 27.2559, "duels_won": 3.7336, "total_long_balls": 1.6702, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8031, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.797, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4588, "crosses_total": 2.3596, "crosses_accurate": 0.7571, "touches": 49.0183, "possession_lost": 5.9014, "dispossessed": 0.1102, "duels_lost": 2.6016, "aerial_lost": 0.7266, "total_contest": 0.7977, "won_contest": 0.7083, "ball_recovery": 3.7802, 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": 0.0132, "total": 0.5319, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.236647 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138877 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.135679 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050436 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.0289 } ], "others_margin": 0.025036 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.6666728258132935, "model_output": 1.6667, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1475 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0477 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0363 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0324 } ], "others": 0.0812, "total": 1.6667, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.432096 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.147454 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.047678 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.03631 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.032392 } ], "others_margin": 0.081163 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.892485618591309, "model_output": 6.8925, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0235, "total": 6.8925, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03072 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015037 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.014061 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010606 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009373 } ], "others_margin": -0.023504 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his 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{ "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0399 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": -0.0556, "total": 0.6645, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.286324 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123811 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043066 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.039875 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.019308 } ], "others_margin": -0.055668 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.79992151260376, "model_output": 6.7999, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0457 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0199, "total": 6.7999, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.045732 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030078 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.023769 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010625 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008769 } ], "others_margin": -0.019915 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9003, "expected_assists": 0.0845, "assists": 0.0708, "assist_rate": 0.0708, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.205, "total_shots": 0.6637, "rating": 6.7999, "minutes": 74.11, "total_pass": 35.9029, "accurate_pass": 31.5191, "duels_won": 3.8328, "total_long_balls": 2.584, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2722, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9875, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3161, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.203, "crosses_total": 2.8281, "crosses_accurate": 0.4584, "touches": 50.547, "possession_lost": 9.9462, "dispossessed": 0.5777, "duels_lost": 3.3464, "aerial_won": 0.3855, "aerial_lost": 0.4977, "interceptions": 0.7314, "tackles_won": 1.0768, "tackles": 1.7082, "clearances": 1.4757, "total_contest": 1.2453, "won_contest": 0.6613, "challenges_lost": 1.0206, "fouls": 0.6979, "fouls_drawn": 1.0776, "blocks": 0.3524, "big_chances_created": 0.1622, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0275, "ball_carries": 15.646, "total_progression": 35.2748, "progressive_carries": 1.1618, "shots_off_target": 0.4587 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5700000, "quality_factor": 0.4708, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0114)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9003, "expected_assists": 0.0845, "assists": 0.07, "assist_rate": 0.07, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goals": 0.058, "goal_rate": 0.058, "shots_on_target": 0.2114, "total_shots": 0.6822, "rating": 6.7999, "minutes": 74.11, "total_pass": 35.9029, "accurate_pass": 31.5191, "duels_won": 3.8328, "total_long_balls": 2.584, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2722, 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1.2722, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9875, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.3161, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.203, "crosses_total": 2.8427, "crosses_accurate": 0.4584, "touches": 50.547, "possession_lost": 9.9462, "dispossessed": 0.5777, "duels_lost": 3.3464, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.4977, "interceptions": 0.7316, "tackles_won": 1.0773, "tackles": 1.7082, "clearances": 1.4757, "total_contest": 1.2453, "won_contest": 0.6613, "challenges_lost": 1.0206, "fouls": 0.6985, "fouls_drawn": 1.0994, "blocks": 0.3524, "big_chances_created": 0.1622, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0243, "ball_carries": 15.646, "total_progression": 35.2748, "progressive_carries": 1.1618, "shots_off_target": 0.4057, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8844, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", 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"total": 6.9044, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062762 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049468 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014802 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.014308 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013026 } ], "others_margin": 0.002765 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1451, "goals": 0.195, "goal_rate": 0.195, "shots_on_target": 0.6052, "total_shots": 1.5769, "expected_assists": 0.0938, "key_pass": 0.9507, "rating": 6.9044, "minutes": 83.13, "total_pass": 16.5624, "accurate_pass": 12.9302, "duels_won": 2.729, "total_long_balls": 0.9905, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9723, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8727, "crosses_total": 2.3837, "crosses_accurate": 0.7664, "touches": 28.8053, "possession_lost": 9.1506, "dispossessed": 0.8221, "duels_lost": 3.1071, "aerial_lost": 0.3233, "total_contest": 2.3846, "won_contest": 1.1973, "ball_recovery": 1.5308, "challenges_lost": 0.0636, "fouls": 0.7168, "fouls_drawn": 0.7597, "assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0323, "interceptions": 0.1097, 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"77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083627.0, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0586, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3167, "combined_rank_score": 1133.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 692.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7088, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 1575.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC 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0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0038 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.085, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.187634 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.118001 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.102267 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052038 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.042352 } ], "others_margin": -0.045166 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.880828857421875, "model_output": 0.8808, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2011 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0494 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0505 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0298 } ], "others": -0.0485, "total": 0.8808, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.25516 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.053909 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.05218 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034456 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03152 } ], "others_margin": -0.053581 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.793593883514404, "model_output": 6.7936, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0357, "total": 6.7936, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055114 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.014893 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013375 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012676 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012135 } ], "others_margin": -0.035831 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0005, quality 0.518)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1418, "goals": 0.1757, "goal_rate": 0.1757, "shots_on_target": 0.4353, "total_shots": 1.4313, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "key_pass": 0.8813, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 72.17, "total_pass": 21.3934, "accurate_pass": 16.7551, "duels_won": 3.7477, "total_long_balls": 0.4236, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3707, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4801, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2626, "crosses_total": 1.5932, "crosses_accurate": 0.1698, "touches": 33.2796, "possession_lost": 8.8259, "dispossessed": 0.9844, "duels_lost": 4.7439, "aerial_lost": 1.5878, "total_contest": 1.1173, "won_contest": 0.5884, "ball_recovery": 3.8592, "challenges_lost": 0.7799, "fouls": 0.9758, "fouls_drawn": 1.1327, "assists": 0.1327, "assist_rate": 0.1327, "interceptions": 0.4225, "tackles_won": 0.5045, "tackles": 0.9556, "clearances": 0.5154, "blocks": 0.0207, "big_chances_created": 0.1768, "big_chances_missed": 0.096, "xgot": 0.0893, "offsides": 0.0879, "ball_carries": 8.7213, "total_progression": 19.1876, "progressive_carries": 1.0395, "shots_off_target": 0.996 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9600000, "quality_factor": 0.5177, "boost_factor": 1.0005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1418, "goals": 0.1757, "goal_rate": 0.1757, "shots_on_target": 0.4353, "total_shots": 1.4313, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "key_pass": 0.8813, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 72.17, "total_pass": 21.3934, "accurate_pass": 16.7551, "duels_won": 3.7477, "total_long_balls": 0.4236, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3707, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4801, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2626, "crosses_total": 1.5932, "crosses_accurate": 0.1698, "touches": 33.2796, "possession_lost": 8.8259, "dispossessed": 0.9844, "duels_lost": 4.7439, "aerial_lost": 1.5878, "total_contest": 1.1173, "won_contest": 0.5884, "ball_recovery": 3.8592, "challenges_lost": 0.7799, "fouls": 0.9758, "fouls_drawn": 1.1327, "assists": 0.1327, "assist_rate": 0.1327, "interceptions": 0.4225, "tackles_won": 0.5045, "tackles": 0.9556, "clearances": 0.5154, "blocks": 0.0207, "big_chances_created": 0.1768, "big_chances_missed": 0.096, "xgot": 0.0893, "offsides": 0.0879, "ball_carries": 8.7213, "total_progression": 19.1876, "progressive_carries": 1.0395, "shots_off_target": 0.996 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0961, "goals": 0.1191, "goal_rate": 0.1191, "shots_on_target": 0.295, "total_shots": 0.97, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "key_pass": 0.8813, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 72.17, "total_pass": 21.3934, "accurate_pass": 16.7551, "duels_won": 3.7477, "total_long_balls": 0.4236, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3707, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4801, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2626, "crosses_total": 1.5932, "crosses_accurate": 0.1698, "touches": 33.2796, "possession_lost": 8.8259, "dispossessed": 0.9844, "duels_lost": 4.7439, "aerial_lost": 1.5878, "total_contest": 1.1173, "won_contest": 0.5884, "ball_recovery": 3.8592, "challenges_lost": 0.7799, "fouls": 0.9758, "fouls_drawn": 1.1327, "assists": 0.1327, "assist_rate": 0.1327, "interceptions": 0.4225, "tackles_won": 0.5045, "tackles": 0.9556, "clearances": 0.5154, "blocks": 0.0207, "big_chances_created": 0.1768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0651, "xgot": 0.0605, "offsides": 0.0879, "ball_carries": 8.7213, "total_progression": 19.1876, "progressive_carries": 1.0395, "shots_off_target": 0.675, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6777, 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0.8879 }, { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "market_value": 46000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8555 } ], "xg_override": 0.0961 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4313, "after": 0.97 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.996, "after": 0.675 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4353, "after": 0.295 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1757, "after": 0.1191 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1418, "after": 0.0961 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.096, "after": 0.0651 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0893, "after": 0.0605 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0961, "goal_rate": 0.1191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.295, "total_shots": 0.97, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "key_pass": 0.8813, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 72.17, "total_pass": 21.3934, "accurate_pass": 16.7551, "duels_won": 3.7477, "total_long_balls": 0.4236, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3707, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4801, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2626, "crosses_total": 1.5932, "crosses_accurate": 0.1698, "touches": 33.2796, "possession_lost": 8.8259, "dispossessed": 0.9844, "duels_lost": 4.7439, "aerial_lost": 1.5878, "total_contest": 1.1173, "won_contest": 0.5884, "ball_recovery": 3.8592, "challenges_lost": 0.7799, "fouls": 0.9758, "fouls_drawn": 1.1327, "assist_rate": 0.1327, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4225, "tackles_won": 0.5045, "tackles": 0.9556, "clearances": 0.5154, "blocks": 0.0207, "big_chances_created": 0.1768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0651, "xgot": 0.0605, "offsides": 0.0879, "ball_carries": 8.7213, "total_progression": 19.1876, "progressive_carries": 1.0395, "shots_off_target": 0.675, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6777, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dean Huijsen, Ibrahima Konaté", "opponent_faced": "Dean Huijsen, Ibrahima Konaté", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.94 (squad xG sum 0.7768, xG scale 1.2036, xA scale 1.2036, team xA 0.72 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1157, "goal_rate": 0.1191, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.295, "total_shots": 0.97, "expected_assists": 0.1024, "key_pass": 0.8813, "rating": 6.7936, "minutes": 72.17, "total_pass": 21.3934, "accurate_pass": 16.7551, "duels_won": 3.7477, "total_long_balls": 0.4236, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3707, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4801, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2626, "crosses_total": 1.5932, "crosses_accurate": 0.1698, "touches": 33.2796, "possession_lost": 8.8259, "dispossessed": 0.9844, "duels_lost": 4.7439, "aerial_lost": 1.5878, "total_contest": 1.1173, "won_contest": 0.5884, "ball_recovery": 3.8592, "challenges_lost": 0.7799, "fouls": 0.9758, "fouls_drawn": 1.1327, "assist_rate": 0.1327, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4225, "tackles_won": 0.5045, "tackles": 0.9556, "clearances": 0.5154, "blocks": 0.0207, "big_chances_created": 0.1768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0651, "xgot": 0.0728, "offsides": 0.0879, "ball_carries": 8.7213, "total_progression": 19.1876, "progressive_carries": 1.0395, "shots_off_target": 0.675, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6777, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dean Huijsen, Ibrahima Konaté", "opponent_faced": "Dean Huijsen, Ibrahima Konaté", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1574, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.935, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7768, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5964, "team_expected_assists": 0.7179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7678, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2036, "xa_scale": 1.2036, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0961, "after": 0.1157 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0851, "after": 0.1024 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0973, "assist_rate": 0.1327, "provider_weight": 0.128, "squad_weight_total": 0.7168, "weight_share": 0.1786, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Kayne van Oevelen": { "player_id": 1393970, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 199, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0227, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0148, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1186, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, 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"schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:04:53.735026+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 631, "rows": 22117 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-11", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.2971, "aerialWon": 0.6783, "totalClearance_p90": 1.4453, "totalTackle": 0.9878, "totalTackle_p90": 3.2658 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.2854861319065094, "model_output": 0.2855, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4894 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0467 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0345, "total": 0.2855, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.137969, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.825133 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.130618 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.038014 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02745 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.019684 } ], "others_margin": -0.114062 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5802903175354004, "model_output": 0.5803, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.806 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0167 } ], "others": 0.0451, "total": 0.5803, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.869586 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.051308 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.041201 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.040299 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.030738 } ], "others_margin": 0.080805 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3932463526725769, "model_output": 0.3932, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1951 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4666 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0114, "total": 0.3932, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.798625 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.046573 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.039401 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.035102 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.030932 } ], "others_margin": -0.028942 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.7489768862724304, "model_output": 0.749, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1337 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2607 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0868 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0532 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0357 } ], "others": -0.0966, "total": 0.749, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.979945 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.227346 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.08884 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058565 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.041385 } ], "others_margin": -0.121349 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.2688511610031128, "model_output": 0.2689, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7916 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1677 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0565 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0344 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0402, "total": 0.2689, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.862563 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.342632 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.148221 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.102126 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.033171 } ], "others_margin": -0.139479 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.13068844377994537, "model_output": 0.1307, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2382 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0452, "total": 0.1307, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.238221 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.041713 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020392 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01448 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009497 } ], "others_margin": -0.045251 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.744298934936523, "model_output": 6.7443, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0338, "total": 6.7443, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01881 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.017816 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015329 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.014937 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014301 } ], "others_margin": -0.033821 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.532)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2857, "tackles": 0.5808, "tackles_won": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.7497, "aerial_won": 0.2691, "total_shots": 0.1308, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 14.41, "total_pass": 8.9541, "accurate_pass": 6.1382, "duels_won": 1.0301, "total_long_balls": 2.1559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6806, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0344, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1038, "crosses_total": 0.1657, "crosses_accurate": 0.1657, "touches": 12.461, "possession_lost": 4.6004, "dispossessed": 0.2698, "duels_lost": 0.9416, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8464, "challenges_lost": 0.195, "fouls": 0.4767, "fouls_drawn": 0.3702, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2761, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1308 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10800000, "quality_factor": 0.5318, "boost_factor": 1.0009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0042)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2852, "tackles": 0.5808, "tackles_won": 0.3927, "clearances": 0.7497, "aerial_won": 0.2691, "total_shots": 0.1302, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 14.41, "total_pass": 8.9541, "accurate_pass": 6.1382, "duels_won": 1.0301, "total_long_balls": 2.1559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6806, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0344, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1038, "crosses_total": 0.1665, "crosses_accurate": 0.1657, "touches": 12.461, "possession_lost": 4.6004, "dispossessed": 0.2698, "duels_lost": 0.9416, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8464, "challenges_lost": 0.195, "fouls": 0.4747, "fouls_drawn": 0.3686, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2761, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1308 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0042, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1601, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.4 to 13.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.276, "tackles": 0.5621, "tackles_won": 0.3801, "clearances": 0.7256, "aerial_won": 0.2604, "total_shots": 0.1266, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 13.95, "total_pass": 8.6658, "accurate_pass": 5.9405, "duels_won": 0.9969, "total_long_balls": 2.0865, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6587, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6419, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9367, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0238, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0039, "crosses_total": 0.1611, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 12.0597, "possession_lost": 4.4523, "dispossessed": 0.2698, "duels_lost": 0.9113, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8191, "challenges_lost": 0.195, "fouls": 0.4594, "fouls_drawn": 0.3567, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2028, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1266, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.225, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.95, "projection_minutes": 14.41, "minutes_scale": 0.9678, "appearance_probability": 0.225 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.276, "tackles": 0.5621, "tackles_won": 0.3801, "clearances": 0.7256, "aerial_won": 0.2604, "total_shots": 0.1266, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 13.95, "total_pass": 8.6658, "accurate_pass": 5.9405, "duels_won": 0.9969, "total_long_balls": 2.0865, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6587, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6419, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9367, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0238, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0039, "crosses_total": 0.1611, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 12.0597, "possession_lost": 4.4523, "dispossessed": 0.2698, "duels_lost": 0.9113, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8191, "challenges_lost": 0.195, "fouls": 0.4594, "fouls_drawn": 0.3567, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2028, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1266, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.225, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.95 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.276, "tackles": 0.5621, "tackles_won": 0.3801, "clearances": 0.7256, "aerial_won": 0.2604, "total_shots": 0.1266, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 13.95, "total_pass": 8.6658, "accurate_pass": 5.9405, "duels_won": 0.9969, "total_long_balls": 2.0865, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6587, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6419, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9367, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0238, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0039, "crosses_total": 0.1611, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 12.0597, "possession_lost": 4.4523, "dispossessed": 0.2698, "duels_lost": 0.9113, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8191, "challenges_lost": 0.195, "fouls": 0.4594, "fouls_drawn": 0.3567, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2028, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1266, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.225, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.95, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.448, 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"importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": 0.0019, "total": 6.7457, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016081 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010709 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010295 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009501 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.008382 } ], "others_margin": 0.001904 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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10.054, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7883, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.5892, "possession_lost": 7.1473, "dispossessed": 0.1255, "duels_lost": 1.8711, "aerial_lost": 1.1251, "total_contest": 0.4691, "won_contest": 0.4691, "ball_recovery": 2.2872, "challenges_lost": 0.2405, "fouls": 0.3802, "fouls_drawn": 0.1462, "blocks": 0.5686, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1721, "assist_rate": 0.1721, "expected_goals": 0.0026, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1738, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.3128, "total_progression": 25.8828, "progressive_carries": 0.2954, "key_pass": 0.4691, "shots_off_target": 0.1905 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 13.8 expected minutes 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"ball_carries": 6.3734, "total_progression": 19.8442, "progressive_carries": 0.2265, "key_pass": 0.3597, "shots_off_target": 0.1461, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.222, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.8, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7667, "appearance_probability": 0.222 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2879, "tackles": 0.3823, "tackles_won": 0.209, "clearances": 1.6435, "aerial_won": 0.635, "total_shots": 0.1461, "rating": 6.7457, "minutes": 13.8, "total_pass": 31.5195, "accurate_pass": 26.2693, "duels_won": 2.1602, "total_long_balls": 3.6308, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1285, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8112, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0646, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2046, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.5532, "possession_lost": 5.4798, "dispossessed": 0.1255, "duels_lost": 1.4346, "aerial_lost": 1.1251, "total_contest": 0.3597, "won_contest": 0.3597, "ball_recovery": 1.7536, "challenges_lost": 0.2405, "fouls": 0.2915, "fouls_drawn": 0.1121, "blocks": 0.4359, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1319, "assist_rate": 0.1319, "expected_goals": 0.002, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1333, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.3734, "total_progression": 19.8442, "progressive_carries": 0.2265, "key_pass": 0.3597, "shots_off_target": 0.1461, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.222, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2879, "tackles": 0.3823, "tackles_won": 0.209, "clearances": 1.6435, "aerial_won": 0.635, "total_shots": 0.1461, "rating": 6.7457, "minutes": 13.8, 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"substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.448, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.222, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4588 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0911 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0642 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0251 } ], "others": -0.0015, "total": 0.4997, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.458796 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.091136 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.064209 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.026673 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.025131 } ], "others_margin": -0.001544 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.671677589416504, "model_output": 6.6717, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0875 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0436 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0198, "total": 6.6717, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087505 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043566 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030117 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009211 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.004544 } ], "others_margin": -0.019872 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0104, quality 0.616)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3864, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.047, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goals": 0.0406, "goal_rate": 0.0406, "shots_on_target": 0.1835, "total_shots": 0.5049, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 13.8435, "accurate_pass": 11.4364, "duels_won": 0.4264, "total_long_balls": 0.6672, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2855, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9898, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6888, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8537, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7477, "crosses_total": 0.559, "crosses_accurate": 0.2493, "touches": 17.1404, "possession_lost": 3.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5168, "aerial_won": 0.2075, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1674, "tackles": 0.1674, "clearances": 0.3482, "total_contest": 0.32, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0084, "ball_carries": 5.4164, "total_progression": 10.3309, "progressive_carries": 0.3072, "shots_off_target": 0.3214 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18500000, "quality_factor": 0.6161, "boost_factor": 1.0104, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.1 to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "assists": 0.0483, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "total_shots": 0.5191, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 14.2323, "accurate_pass": 11.7576, "duels_won": 0.4384, "total_long_balls": 0.6859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7643, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9934, "crosses_total": 0.5747, "crosses_accurate": 0.2563, "touches": 17.6218, "possession_lost": 3.5906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2133, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1721, "tackles": 0.1721, "clearances": 0.358, "total_contest": 0.329, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 5.5685, "total_progression": 10.6211, "progressive_carries": 0.3158, "shots_off_target": 0.3304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.68 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.68, "projection_minutes": 22.06, "minutes_scale": 1.0281, "appearance_probability": 0.531 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "assists": 0.0483, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "total_shots": 0.5191, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 14.2323, "accurate_pass": 11.7576, "duels_won": 0.4384, "total_long_balls": 0.6859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7643, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9934, "crosses_total": 0.5747, "crosses_accurate": 0.2563, "touches": 17.6218, "possession_lost": 3.5906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2133, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1721, "tackles": 0.1721, "clearances": 0.358, "total_contest": 0.329, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 5.5685, "total_progression": 10.6211, "progressive_carries": 0.3158, "shots_off_target": 0.3304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.68 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "total_shots": 0.5191, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 14.2323, "accurate_pass": 11.7576, "duels_won": 0.4384, "total_long_balls": 0.6859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7643, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9934, "crosses_total": 0.5747, "crosses_accurate": 0.2563, "touches": 17.6218, "possession_lost": 3.5906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2133, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1721, "tackles": 0.1721, "clearances": 0.358, "total_contest": 0.329, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 5.5685, "total_progression": 10.6211, "progressive_carries": 0.3158, "shots_off_target": 0.3304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.68, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.448, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.94 (squad xG sum 0.7768, xG scale 1.2036, xA scale 1.2036, team xA 0.72 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "total_shots": 0.5191, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 14.2323, "accurate_pass": 11.7576, "duels_won": 0.4384, "total_long_balls": 0.6859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7643, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9934, "crosses_total": 0.5747, "crosses_accurate": 0.2563, "touches": 17.6218, "possession_lost": 3.5906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2133, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1721, "tackles": 0.1721, "clearances": 0.358, "total_contest": 0.329, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0055, "ball_carries": 5.5685, "total_progression": 10.6211, "progressive_carries": 0.3158, "shots_off_target": 0.3304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.68, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.448, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9483, "creation_factor": 1.2396 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.935, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7768, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5964, "team_expected_assists": 0.7179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7678, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2036, "xa_scale": 1.2036, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.531 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0467, "after": 0.0298 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0293, "after": 0.0187 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "total_shots": 0.5191, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 14.2323, "accurate_pass": 11.7576, "duels_won": 0.4384, "total_long_balls": 0.6859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7643, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9934, "crosses_total": 0.5747, "crosses_accurate": 0.2563, "touches": 17.6218, "possession_lost": 3.5906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2133, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1721, "tackles": 0.1721, "clearances": 0.358, "total_contest": 0.329, "won_contest": 0.0, 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"appearance_weight": 0.531, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "total_shots": 0.5191, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 14.2323, "accurate_pass": 11.7576, "duels_won": 0.4384, "total_long_balls": 0.6859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7643, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9934, "crosses_total": 0.5747, "crosses_accurate": 0.2563, "touches": 17.6218, "possession_lost": 3.5906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2133, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1721, "tackles": 0.1721, "clearances": 0.358, "total_contest": 0.329, 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0.0323, "creation_factor": 1.2396, "appearance_weight": 0.531, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Aaron Mayol": { "player_id": 2468733, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 33, "height": 183, "market_value": 4700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "assist_rate": 0.0793, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0464, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8385, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 13.7905, "dispossessed": 2.4349, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, 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"predicted": 0.14118914306163788, "model_output": 0.1412, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1344 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0057, "total": 0.1412, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549816 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.122753 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.11174 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.086171 }, { "name": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.098613 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08458 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.053746 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.026325 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.023812 } ], "others_margin": -0.084201 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9900, quality 0.458)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3363, "expected_assists": 0.026, "assists": 0.0683, "assist_rate": 0.0683, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goals": 0.0819, "goal_rate": 0.0819, "shots_on_target": 0.1398, "total_shots": 0.2944, "rating": 6.8385, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 40.5097, "accurate_pass": 35.64, "duels_won": 3.0503, "total_long_balls": 3.7994, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8094, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7297, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7597, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.78, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8803, "crosses_total": 1.0703, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.9551, "possession_lost": 11.88, "dispossessed": 2.4349, "duels_lost": 6.3949, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.5251, "interceptions": 2.4349, "tackles_won": 0.4549, "tackles": 2.0603, "clearances": 0.4549, 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"contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0124, "total": 0.0063, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.463921 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.353799 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.188198 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.119894 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.118493 } ], "others_margin": -1.091672 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.21648581326007843, "model_output": 0.2165, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2766 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0955, "total": 0.2165, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.510536 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086354 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.075599 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.065557 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.058102 } ], "others_margin": -0.365499 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.577571392059326, "model_output": 6.5776, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0514 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.068, "total": 6.5776, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.051386 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036323 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016953 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012561 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010414 } ], "others_margin": -0.068127 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0008, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1131, "goal_rate": 0.1131, "shots_on_target": 0.2804, "total_shots": 0.7265, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "key_pass": 0.2167, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 4.8226, "accurate_pass": 3.6139, "duels_won": 1.2931, "total_long_balls": 0.1565, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1565, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8847, "crosses_total": 0.0698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3794, "possession_lost": 2.5928, "dispossessed": 0.4305, "duels_lost": 2.0772, "aerial_lost": 1.1433, "total_contest": 0.3289, "won_contest": 0.1672, "ball_recovery": 0.3249, "challenges_lost": 0.1396, "fouls": 0.2718, "fouls_drawn": 0.3019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0593, "tackles_won": 0.1291, "tackles": 0.1291, "clearances": 0.1974, "blocks": 0.1298, "big_chances_created": 0.0376, "big_chances_missed": 0.2217, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4832, "total_progression": 2.9956, "progressive_carries": 0.0561, "shots_off_target": 0.4461 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0008, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1126, "goal_rate": 0.1126, "shots_on_target": 0.2792, "total_shots": 0.7234, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "key_pass": 0.2167, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 4.8226, "accurate_pass": 3.6139, "duels_won": 1.2931, "total_long_balls": 0.1565, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1565, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8847, "crosses_total": 0.0695, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3794, "possession_lost": 2.5928, "dispossessed": 0.4305, "duels_lost": 2.0772, "aerial_lost": 1.1433, "total_contest": 0.3289, "won_contest": 0.1672, "ball_recovery": 0.3249, "challenges_lost": 0.1396, "fouls": 0.2716, "fouls_drawn": 0.3025, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.06, "tackles_won": 0.1286, "tackles": 0.1291, "clearances": 0.1974, "blocks": 0.1298, "big_chances_created": 0.0376, "big_chances_missed": 0.2217, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4832, "total_progression": 2.9956, "progressive_carries": 0.0561, "shots_off_target": 0.4461 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2212, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goals": 0.1275, "goal_rate": 0.1275, "shots_on_target": 0.3162, "total_shots": 0.8215, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.2454, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.55, "total_pass": 5.4621, "accurate_pass": 4.0931, "duels_won": 1.4646, "total_long_balls": 0.1773, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1346, "crosses_total": 0.0787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4905, "possession_lost": 2.9366, "dispossessed": 0.4305, "duels_lost": 2.3526, "aerial_lost": 1.1433, "total_contest": 0.3725, "won_contest": 0.1894, "ball_recovery": 0.368, "challenges_lost": 0.1396, "fouls": 0.3076, "fouls_drawn": 0.3426, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.068, "tackles_won": 0.1457, "tackles": 0.1462, "clearances": 0.2236, "blocks": 0.147, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2511, "xgot": 0.0632, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6799, "total_progression": 3.3928, "progressive_carries": 0.0635, "shots_off_target": 0.5053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.598, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.55 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.55, "projection_minutes": 19.91, "minutes_scale": 1.1326, "appearance_probability": 0.598 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goals": 0.1275, "goal_rate": 0.1275, "shots_on_target": 0.3162, "total_shots": 0.8215, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.2454, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.55, "total_pass": 5.4621, "accurate_pass": 4.0931, "duels_won": 1.4646, "total_long_balls": 0.1773, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1346, "crosses_total": 0.0787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4905, "possession_lost": 2.9366, "dispossessed": 0.4305, "duels_lost": 2.3526, "aerial_lost": 1.1433, "total_contest": 0.3725, "won_contest": 0.1894, "ball_recovery": 0.368, "challenges_lost": 0.1396, "fouls": 0.3076, "fouls_drawn": 0.3426, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.068, "tackles_won": 0.1457, "tackles": 0.1462, "clearances": 0.2236, "blocks": 0.147, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2511, "xgot": 0.0632, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6799, "total_progression": 3.3928, "progressive_carries": 0.0635, "shots_off_target": 0.5053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.598, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.55 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goal_rate": 0.1275, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3162, "total_shots": 0.8215, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.2454, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.55, "total_pass": 5.4621, "accurate_pass": 4.0931, "duels_won": 1.4646, "total_long_balls": 0.1773, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1346, "crosses_total": 0.0787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4905, "possession_lost": 2.9366, "dispossessed": 0.4305, "duels_lost": 2.3526, "aerial_lost": 1.1433, "total_contest": 0.3725, "won_contest": 0.1894, "ball_recovery": 0.368, "challenges_lost": 0.1396, "fouls": 0.3076, "fouls_drawn": 0.3426, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.068, "tackles_won": 0.1457, "tackles": 0.1462, "clearances": 0.2236, "blocks": 0.147, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2511, "xgot": 0.0632, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6799, "total_progression": 3.3928, "progressive_carries": 0.0635, "shots_off_target": 0.5053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.598, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.55, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.448, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.94 (squad xG sum 0.7768, xG scale 1.2036, xA scale 1.2036, team xA 0.72 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.077, "goal_rate": 0.1275, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3162, "total_shots": 0.8215, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0.2454, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.55, "total_pass": 5.4621, "accurate_pass": 4.0931, "duels_won": 1.4646, "total_long_balls": 0.1773, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1346, "crosses_total": 0.0787, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1306, "creation_factor": 0.8757 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.935, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7768, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5964, "team_expected_assists": 0.7179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7678, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2036, "xa_scale": 1.2036, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.598 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.107, "after": 0.077 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.077, "goal_rate": 0.1275, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3162, "total_shots": 0.8215, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0.2454, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.55, "total_pass": 5.4621, "accurate_pass": 4.0931, "duels_won": 1.4646, "total_long_balls": 0.1773, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1346, "crosses_total": 0.0787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4905, "possession_lost": 2.9366, "dispossessed": 0.4305, "duels_lost": 2.3526, "aerial_lost": 1.1433, "total_contest": 0.3725, "won_contest": 0.1894, "ball_recovery": 0.368, "challenges_lost": 0.1396, "fouls": 0.3076, "fouls_drawn": 0.3426, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.068, "tackles_won": 0.1457, "tackles": 0.1462, "clearances": 0.2236, "blocks": 0.147, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2511, "xgot": 0.0455, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6799, "total_progression": 3.3928, "progressive_carries": 0.0635, "shots_off_target": 0.5053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.598, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.55, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.448, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1306, "creation_factor": 0.8757, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3220, "fifa_rank": 1559.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0125, "total": 0.0158, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.399802 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.138018 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.11234 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.094465 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.089319 } ], "others_margin": -0.579493 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3359953463077545, "model_output": 0.336, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.245 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.031, "total": 0.336, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.437251 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.073927 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045716 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.044831 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.032127 } ], "others_margin": -0.088222 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.653960227966309, "model_output": 6.654, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0637 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.021, "total": 6.654, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063737 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.018925 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014215 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012921 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.011427 } ], "others_margin": -0.021001 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9972, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1316, "goals": 0.1495, "goal_rate": 0.1495, "shots_on_target": 0.3358, "total_shots": 0.8173, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.3351, "rating": 6.654, "minutes": 23.94, "total_pass": 4.9302, "accurate_pass": 3.2005, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.0165, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0477, "crosses_total": 0.3559, "crosses_accurate": 0.16, "touches": 12.33, "possession_lost": 5.2956, "dispossessed": 1.2868, "duels_lost": 3.8549, "aerial_lost": 1.2801, "total_contest": 0.8556, "won_contest": 0.4089, "ball_recovery": 1.0164, "challenges_lost": 0.2375, "fouls": 0.6303, "fouls_drawn": 0.6373, "assists": 0.0602, "assist_rate": 0.0602, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0708, 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"description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 30.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1684, "goals": 0.1913, "goal_rate": 0.1913, "shots_on_target": 0.4314, "total_shots": 1.0477, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "key_pass": 0.4289, "rating": 6.654, "minutes": 30.64, "total_pass": 6.31, "accurate_pass": 4.0962, "duels_won": 2.5649, "total_long_balls": 0.0211, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3532, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6208, "crosses_total": 0.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.2048, "touches": 15.7808, "possession_lost": 6.7777, "dispossessed": 1.2868, "duels_lost": 4.9338, "aerial_lost": 1.2801, "total_contest": 1.0951, "won_contest": 0.5233, "ball_recovery": 1.3009, "challenges_lost": 0.2375, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8082, "assists": 0.0762, "assist_rate": 0.0762, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0896, "tackles": 0.0906, "clearances": 0.32, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0215, 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2.5649, "total_long_balls": 0.0211, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3532, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6208, "crosses_total": 0.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.2048, "touches": 15.7808, "possession_lost": 6.7777, "dispossessed": 1.2868, "duels_lost": 4.9338, "aerial_lost": 1.2801, "total_contest": 1.0951, "won_contest": 0.5233, "ball_recovery": 1.3009, "challenges_lost": 0.2375, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8082, "assist_rate": 0.0762, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0896, "tackles": 0.0906, "clearances": 0.32, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0215, "big_chances_missed": 0.3598, "xgot": 0.1653, "offsides": 0.4084, "ball_carries": 5.6684, "total_progression": 13.9601, "progressive_carries": 0.6348, "shots_off_target": 0.6163, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.448, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1049, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.935, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7768, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5964, "team_expected_assists": 0.7179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7678, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2036, "xa_scale": 1.2036, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.591 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1684, "after": 0.1198 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0202, "after": 0.0144 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3220, "combined_rank_score": 1167.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 776.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6389, "sofascore_appearances": 36.0, "fifa_rank": 1559.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5776, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hugo Duro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Azor Matusiwa", "ranking": 3215 }, { "player_name": "Eljif Elmas", "ranking": 3216 }, { "player_name": "Lazaros Rota", "ranking": 3217 }, { "player_name": "Joshua Zirkzee", "ranking": 3218 }, { "player_name": "Camilo Vargas", "ranking": 3219 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Chris Führich", "ranking": 3221 }, { "player_name": "Lucien Agoumé", "ranking": 3222 }, { "player_name": "Maarten Vandevoordt", "ranking": 3223 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Vasilj", "ranking": 3224 }, { "player_name": "Wouter Burger", "ranking": 3225 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 46, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", 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"importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2766 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0955, "total": 0.2165, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.510536 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086354 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.075599 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.065557 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.058102 } ], "others_margin": -0.365499 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.577571392059326, "model_output": 6.5776, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0514 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.068, "total": 6.5776, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.051386 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036323 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016953 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012561 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010414 } ], "others_margin": -0.068127 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0008, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1131, "goal_rate": 0.1131, "shots_on_target": 0.2804, "total_shots": 0.7265, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "key_pass": 0.2167, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 4.8226, "accurate_pass": 3.6139, "duels_won": 1.2931, "total_long_balls": 0.1565, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1565, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8847, "crosses_total": 0.0698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3794, "possession_lost": 2.5928, "dispossessed": 0.4305, "duels_lost": 2.0772, "aerial_lost": 1.1433, "total_contest": 0.3289, "won_contest": 0.1672, "ball_recovery": 0.3249, "challenges_lost": 0.1396, "fouls": 0.2718, "fouls_drawn": 0.3019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0593, "tackles_won": 0.1291, "tackles": 0.1291, "clearances": 0.1974, "blocks": 0.1298, "big_chances_created": 0.0376, "big_chances_missed": 0.2217, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4832, "total_progression": 2.9956, "progressive_carries": 0.0561, "shots_off_target": 0.4461 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0008, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1126, "goal_rate": 0.1126, "shots_on_target": 0.2792, "total_shots": 0.7234, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "key_pass": 0.2167, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 4.8226, "accurate_pass": 3.6139, "duels_won": 1.2931, "total_long_balls": 0.1565, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1565, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8847, "crosses_total": 0.0695, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3794, "possession_lost": 2.5928, "dispossessed": 0.4305, "duels_lost": 2.0772, "aerial_lost": 1.1433, "total_contest": 0.3289, "won_contest": 0.1672, "ball_recovery": 0.3249, "challenges_lost": 0.1396, "fouls": 0.2716, "fouls_drawn": 0.3025, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.06, "tackles_won": 0.1286, "tackles": 0.1291, "clearances": 0.1974, "blocks": 0.1298, "big_chances_created": 0.0376, "big_chances_missed": 0.2217, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4832, "total_progression": 2.9956, "progressive_carries": 0.0561, "shots_off_target": 0.4461 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2212, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goals": 0.1275, "goal_rate": 0.1275, "shots_on_target": 0.3162, "total_shots": 0.8215, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.2454, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.55, "total_pass": 5.4621, "accurate_pass": 4.0931, "duels_won": 1.4646, "total_long_balls": 0.1773, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1346, "crosses_total": 0.0787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4905, "possession_lost": 2.9366, "dispossessed": 0.4305, "duels_lost": 2.3526, "aerial_lost": 1.1433, "total_contest": 0.3725, "won_contest": 0.1894, "ball_recovery": 0.368, "challenges_lost": 0.1396, "fouls": 0.3076, "fouls_drawn": 0.3426, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.068, "tackles_won": 0.1457, "tackles": 0.1462, "clearances": 0.2236, "blocks": 0.147, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2511, "xgot": 0.0632, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6799, "total_progression": 3.3928, "progressive_carries": 0.0635, "shots_off_target": 0.5053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.598, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.55 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.55, "projection_minutes": 19.91, "minutes_scale": 1.1326, "appearance_probability": 0.598 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goals": 0.1275, "goal_rate": 0.1275, "shots_on_target": 0.3162, "total_shots": 0.8215, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.2454, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.55, "total_pass": 5.4621, "accurate_pass": 4.0931, "duels_won": 1.4646, "total_long_balls": 0.1773, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1346, "crosses_total": 0.0787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4905, "possession_lost": 2.9366, "dispossessed": 0.4305, "duels_lost": 2.3526, "aerial_lost": 1.1433, "total_contest": 0.3725, "won_contest": 0.1894, "ball_recovery": 0.368, "challenges_lost": 0.1396, "fouls": 0.3076, "fouls_drawn": 0.3426, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.068, "tackles_won": 0.1457, "tackles": 0.1462, "clearances": 0.2236, "blocks": 0.147, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2511, "xgot": 0.0632, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6799, "total_progression": 3.3928, "progressive_carries": 0.0635, "shots_off_target": 0.5053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.598, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.55 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goal_rate": 0.1275, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3162, "total_shots": 0.8215, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.2454, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.55, "total_pass": 5.4621, "accurate_pass": 4.0931, "duels_won": 1.4646, "total_long_balls": 0.1773, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1346, "crosses_total": 0.0787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4905, "possession_lost": 2.9366, "dispossessed": 0.4305, "duels_lost": 2.3526, "aerial_lost": 1.1433, "total_contest": 0.3725, "won_contest": 0.1894, "ball_recovery": 0.368, "challenges_lost": 0.1396, "fouls": 0.3076, "fouls_drawn": 0.3426, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.068, "tackles_won": 0.1457, "tackles": 0.1462, "clearances": 0.2236, "blocks": 0.147, "big_chances_created": 0.0426, "big_chances_missed": 0.2511, "xgot": 0.0632, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6799, "total_progression": 3.3928, "progressive_carries": 0.0635, "shots_off_target": 0.5053, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.598, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.55, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.448, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.94 (squad xG sum 0.7768, xG scale 1.2036, xA scale 1.2036, team xA 0.72 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.077, "goal_rate": 0.1275, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3162, "total_shots": 0.8215, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "key_pass": 0.2454, "rating": 6.5776, "minutes": 22.55, "total_pass": 5.4621, "accurate_pass": 4.0931, "duels_won": 1.4646, "total_long_balls": 0.1773, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1773, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1346, "crosses_total": 0.0787, 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"opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 5.6306, "expectedGoals": 0.293, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.9061, "totalShots": 1.1835, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 5.5094 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1320069283246994, "model_output": 0.132, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2767 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0987 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0236 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1929, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.089 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0038 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5815 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1029 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0205 } ], "others": 0.0222, "total": 0.8196, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.375643, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.581471 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.102861 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.050387 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.035261 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.020485 } ], "others_margin": 0.022172 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.01581556163728237, "model_output": 0.0158, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1287 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0125, "total": 0.0158, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.399802 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.138018 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.11234 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.094465 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.089319 } ], "others_margin": -0.579493 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3359953463077545, "model_output": 0.336, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.245 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.031, "total": 0.336, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.437251 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.073927 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045716 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.044831 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.032127 } ], "others_margin": -0.088222 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.653960227966309, "model_output": 6.654, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0637 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.021, "total": 6.654, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063737 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.018925 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014215 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012921 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.011427 } ], "others_margin": -0.021001 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9972, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1316, "goals": 0.1495, "goal_rate": 0.1495, "shots_on_target": 0.3358, "total_shots": 0.8173, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.3351, "rating": 6.654, "minutes": 23.94, "total_pass": 4.9302, "accurate_pass": 3.2005, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.0165, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0477, "crosses_total": 0.3559, "crosses_accurate": 0.16, "touches": 12.33, "possession_lost": 5.2956, "dispossessed": 1.2868, "duels_lost": 3.8549, "aerial_lost": 1.2801, "total_contest": 0.8556, "won_contest": 0.4089, "ball_recovery": 1.0164, "challenges_lost": 0.2375, "fouls": 0.6303, "fouls_drawn": 0.6373, "assists": 0.0602, "assist_rate": 0.0602, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0708, "tackles": 0.0708, "clearances": 0.25, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0168, "big_chances_missed": 0.2811, "xgot": 0.1816, "offsides": 0.4062, "ball_carries": 4.4289, "total_progression": 10.9075, "progressive_carries": 0.496, "shots_off_target": 0.4815 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3400000, "quality_factor": 0.4424, "boost_factor": 0.9972, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0118)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1316, "goals": 0.1495, "goal_rate": 0.1495, "shots_on_target": 0.3371, "total_shots": 0.813, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.3351, "rating": 6.654, "minutes": 23.94, "total_pass": 4.9302, "accurate_pass": 3.2005, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.0165, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0477, "crosses_total": 0.3534, 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"description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 30.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1684, "goals": 0.1913, "goal_rate": 0.1913, "shots_on_target": 0.4314, "total_shots": 1.0477, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "key_pass": 0.4289, "rating": 6.654, "minutes": 30.64, "total_pass": 6.31, "accurate_pass": 4.0962, "duels_won": 2.5649, "total_long_balls": 0.0211, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3532, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6208, "crosses_total": 0.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.2048, "touches": 15.7808, "possession_lost": 6.7777, "dispossessed": 1.2868, "duels_lost": 4.9338, "aerial_lost": 1.2801, "total_contest": 1.0951, "won_contest": 0.5233, "ball_recovery": 1.3009, "challenges_lost": 0.2375, "fouls": 0.7994, "fouls_drawn": 0.8082, "assists": 0.0762, "assist_rate": 0.0762, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0896, "tackles": 0.0906, "clearances": 0.32, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0215, 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"match_date": "2026-09-11", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.094, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 36.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0799, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-01", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0679, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-09-28", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0578, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-09-21", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0491, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-09-13", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0417, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 11.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.6857, "creative_index": 0.3254, "expectedGoals": 0.0257, "expectedAssists": 0.0405, "keyPass": 0.7526 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 0.1816, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.559332 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.120847 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.106893 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.074326 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.058025 } ], "others_margin": -0.030573 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.49971795082092285, "model_output": 0.4997, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4588 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0911 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0642 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0251 } ], "others": -0.0015, "total": 0.4997, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.458796 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.091136 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.064209 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.026673 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.025131 } ], "others_margin": -0.001544 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.671677589416504, "model_output": 6.6717, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0875 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0436 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0198, "total": 6.6717, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087505 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043566 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030117 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009211 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.004544 } ], "others_margin": -0.019872 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0104, quality 0.616)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3864, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.047, "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goals": 0.0406, "goal_rate": 0.0406, "shots_on_target": 0.1835, "total_shots": 0.5049, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 13.8435, "accurate_pass": 11.4364, "duels_won": 0.4264, "total_long_balls": 0.6672, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2855, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9898, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6888, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8537, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7477, "crosses_total": 0.559, "crosses_accurate": 0.2493, "touches": 17.1404, "possession_lost": 3.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5168, "aerial_won": 0.2075, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1674, "tackles": 0.1674, "clearances": 0.3482, "total_contest": 0.32, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0084, "ball_carries": 5.4164, "total_progression": 10.3309, "progressive_carries": 0.3072, "shots_off_target": 0.3214 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18500000, "quality_factor": 0.6161, "boost_factor": 1.0104, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.1 to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "assists": 0.0483, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "total_shots": 0.5191, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 14.2323, "accurate_pass": 11.7576, "duels_won": 0.4384, "total_long_balls": 0.6859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7643, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9934, "crosses_total": 0.5747, "crosses_accurate": 0.2563, "touches": 17.6218, "possession_lost": 3.5906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2133, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1721, "tackles": 0.1721, "clearances": 0.358, "total_contest": 0.329, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 5.5685, "total_progression": 10.6211, "progressive_carries": 0.3158, "shots_off_target": 0.3304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.68 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.68, "projection_minutes": 22.06, "minutes_scale": 1.0281, "appearance_probability": 0.531 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "assists": 0.0483, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "total_shots": 0.5191, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 14.2323, "accurate_pass": 11.7576, "duels_won": 0.4384, "total_long_balls": 0.6859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7643, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9934, "crosses_total": 0.5747, "crosses_accurate": 0.2563, "touches": 17.6218, "possession_lost": 3.5906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2133, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1721, "tackles": 0.1721, "clearances": 0.358, "total_contest": 0.329, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 5.5685, "total_progression": 10.6211, "progressive_carries": 0.3158, "shots_off_target": 0.3304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.68 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "total_shots": 0.5191, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 14.2323, "accurate_pass": 11.7576, "duels_won": 0.4384, "total_long_balls": 0.6859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7643, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9934, "crosses_total": 0.5747, "crosses_accurate": 0.2563, "touches": 17.6218, "possession_lost": 3.5906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2133, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1721, "tackles": 0.1721, "clearances": 0.358, "total_contest": 0.329, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 5.5685, "total_progression": 10.6211, "progressive_carries": 0.3158, "shots_off_target": 0.3304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.68, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.448, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.94 (squad xG sum 0.7768, xG scale 1.2036, xA scale 1.2036, team xA 0.72 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "total_shots": 0.5191, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 14.2323, "accurate_pass": 11.7576, "duels_won": 0.4384, "total_long_balls": 0.6859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7643, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9934, "crosses_total": 0.5747, "crosses_accurate": 0.2563, "touches": 17.6218, "possession_lost": 3.5906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2133, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1721, "tackles": 0.1721, "clearances": 0.358, "total_contest": 0.329, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0055, "ball_carries": 5.5685, "total_progression": 10.6211, "progressive_carries": 0.3158, "shots_off_target": 0.3304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.68, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.448, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9483, "creation_factor": 1.2396 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.935, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7768, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5964, "team_expected_assists": 0.7179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7678, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2036, "xa_scale": 1.2036, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.531 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0467, "after": 0.0298 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0293, "after": 0.0187 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "total_shots": 0.5191, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 14.2323, "accurate_pass": 11.7576, "duels_won": 0.4384, "total_long_balls": 0.6859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7643, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9934, "crosses_total": 0.5747, "crosses_accurate": 0.2563, "touches": 17.6218, "possession_lost": 3.5906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2133, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1721, "tackles": 0.1721, "clearances": 0.358, "total_contest": 0.329, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0055, "ball_carries": 5.5685, "total_progression": 10.6211, "progressive_carries": 0.3158, "shots_off_target": 0.3304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.68, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.448, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9483, "creation_factor": 1.2396, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3214, "fifa_rank": 1426.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "total_shots": 0.5191, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 14.2323, "accurate_pass": 11.7576, "duels_won": 0.4384, "total_long_balls": 0.6859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7643, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9934, "crosses_total": 0.5747, "crosses_accurate": 0.2563, "touches": 17.6218, "possession_lost": 3.5906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2133, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1721, "tackles": 0.1721, "clearances": 0.358, "total_contest": 0.329, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0055, "ball_carries": 5.5685, "total_progression": 10.6211, "progressive_carries": 0.3158, "shots_off_target": 0.3304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.531, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.68, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.448, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.029, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9483, "creation_factor": 1.2396, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.029, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "scorer_weight": 0.0283, "squad_weight_total": 1.0185, "weight_share": 0.0277, "finishing_factor": 0.9483, "appearance_weight": 0.531, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3973, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1887, "total_shots": 0.5191, "rating": 6.6717, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 14.2323, "accurate_pass": 11.7576, "duels_won": 0.4384, "total_long_balls": 0.6859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2935, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7643, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9934, "crosses_total": 0.5747, "crosses_accurate": 0.2563, "touches": 17.6218, "possession_lost": 3.5906, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2133, "aerial_lost": 0.1968, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1721, "tackles": 0.1721, "clearances": 0.358, "total_contest": 0.329, 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0.0323, "creation_factor": 1.2396, "appearance_weight": 0.531, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.94, "expected_assists": 0.72, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 409, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5 } }, "Real Madrid": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Thibaut Courtois": { "player_id": 70988, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 200, "market_value": 14500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0476, "rating": 7.0044, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 27, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 42, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0633, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 5.6427, "duels_won": 0, 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.7639, "goals_prevented": 0.0476, "rating": 7.0044, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.8127, "accurate_pass": 27.2531, "total_long_balls": 8.7921, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3034, "touches": 41.697, "clearances": 0.5475, "ball_recovery": 7.2703, "high_claims": 0.6908, "punches": 0.0633, "aerial_won": 0.0329, "sweeper_actions": 0.8091, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8087, "saves_inside_box": 1.5917, "possession_lost": 5.6427, "duels_won": 0.0363, "duels_lost": 0.0189, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.011, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4254, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8591, "shots_faced": 8.2, "expected_saves": 2.01, "high_pressure_saves": 0.69, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra, Diego López", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.7009, xG scale 1.3264, xA scale 1.6253, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7639, "goals_prevented": 0.0476, "rating": 7.0044, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.8127, "accurate_pass": 27.2531, "total_long_balls": 8.7921, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3034, "touches": 41.697, "clearances": 0.5475, "ball_recovery": 7.2703, "high_claims": 0.6908, "punches": 0.0633, "aerial_won": 0.0329, "sweeper_actions": 0.8091, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8087, "saves_inside_box": 1.5917, "possession_lost": 5.6427, "duels_won": 0.0363, "duels_lost": 0.0189, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.011, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4254, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8591, "shots_faced": 8.9, "expected_saves": 2.18, "high_pressure_saves": 0.75, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra, Diego López", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.256, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7009, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9022, "team_expected_assists": 1.4664, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3264, "xa_scale": 1.6253, "opponent_lambda": 0.935, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 8.2, "after": 8.9 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.01, "after": 2.18 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.69, "after": 0.75 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7639, "goals_prevented": 0.0476, "rating": 7.0044, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.8127, "accurate_pass": 27.2531, "total_long_balls": 8.7921, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3034, "touches": 41.697, "clearances": 0.5475, "ball_recovery": 7.2703, "high_claims": 0.6908, "punches": 0.0633, "aerial_won": 0.0329, "sweeper_actions": 0.8091, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8087, "saves_inside_box": 1.5917, "possession_lost": 5.6427, "duels_won": 0.0363, "duels_lost": 0.0189, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.011, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4254, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8591, "shots_faced": 8.9, "expected_saves": 2.18, "high_pressure_saves": 0.75, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra, Diego López", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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7.2703, "high_claims": 0.6908, "punches": 0.0633, "aerial_won": 0.0329, "sweeper_actions": 0.8091, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8087, "saves_inside_box": 1.5917, "possession_lost": 5.6427, "duels_won": 0.0363, "duels_lost": 0.0189, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.011, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "total_own_half_passes": 26.5988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.4254, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8591, "shots_faced": 8.9, "expected_saves": 2.18, "high_pressure_saves": 0.75, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra, Diego López", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 2.5662, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.4047, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.4047, "runner_up": "Arda Güler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3079 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.4047, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5978, "runner_up": "Arda Güler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3079 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7639, "goals_prevented": 0.0476, "rating": 7.0044, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.8127, "accurate_pass": 27.2531, "total_long_balls": 8.7921, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3034, "touches": 41.697, "clearances": 0.5475, "ball_recovery": 7.2703, "high_claims": 0.6908, "punches": 0.0633, "aerial_won": 0.0329, "sweeper_actions": 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3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0042, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0428, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0142, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 85, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Arnaut Danjuma", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0419, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0153, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8403, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 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"season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421066.0, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0125, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416339.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057461 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.023759 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013015 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010637 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.009562 } ], "others_margin": -0.054121 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.857296943664551, "model_output": 6.8573, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0351 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0091, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8441, "tackles": 1.408, "tackles_won": 0.8508, "clearances": 4.2362, "aerial_won": 1.806, "total_shots": 0.4771, "rating": 6.8573, "minutes": 89.31, "total_pass": 52.6892, "accurate_pass": 48.4966, "duels_won": 3.8626, "total_long_balls": 3.2586, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0552, "total_own_half_passes": 36.2234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6025, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.466, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8941, "crosses_total": 0.0046, "crosses_accurate": 0.0036, "touches": 63.0948, "possession_lost": 4.9868, "dispossessed": 0.2837, "duels_lost": 2.5052, "aerial_lost": 0.8348, "total_contest": 0.0669, "won_contest": 0.0154, "ball_recovery": 2.9602, "challenges_lost": 0.2672, "fouls": 1.0684, "fouls_drawn": 0.6176, "blocks": 0.6805, "goals": 0.0042, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0542 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.057, "total": 0.4391, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054174 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024716 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.014421 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.0107 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010516 } ], "others_margin": -0.056958 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.976046562194824, "model_output": 6.976, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0611 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.061 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": 0.0318, "total": 6.976, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.061066 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.060988 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023362 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.011727 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.011616 } ], "others_margin": 0.031961 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7209, "tackles": 0.9297, "tackles_won": 0.5811, "clearances": 3.5488, "aerial_won": 1.0953, "total_shots": 0.4412, "rating": 6.976, "minutes": 87.26, "total_pass": 67.4827, "accurate_pass": 63.3791, "duels_won": 2.8032, "total_long_balls": 3.2358, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4148, "total_own_half_passes": 45.031, "accurate_own_half_passes": 43.6649, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4517, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7143, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 76.3815, "possession_lost": 4.8032, "dispossessed": 0.0657, "duels_lost": 1.7832, "aerial_lost": 0.5966, "total_contest": 0.0535, "won_contest": 0.0434, "ball_recovery": 2.7248, "challenges_lost": 0.3298, "fouls": 0.7929, "fouls_drawn": 1.3695, "blocks": 0.6605, "goal_rate": 0.0692, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0531, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "shots_on_target": 0.1388, "big_chances_created": 0.115, "xgot": 0.0485, "ball_carries": 20.6641, "total_progression": 101.731, "progressive_carries": 1.1948, "key_pass": 0.2014, "shots_off_target": 0.3023, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619, "opponent_faced": "Filip Ugrinić", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.7009, xG scale 1.3264, xA scale 1.6253, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7209, "tackles": 0.9297, "tackles_won": 0.5811, "clearances": 3.5488, "aerial_won": 1.0953, "total_shots": 0.4412, "rating": 6.976, "minutes": 87.26, "total_pass": 67.4827, "accurate_pass": 63.3791, "duels_won": 2.8032, "total_long_balls": 3.2358, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4148, "total_own_half_passes": 45.031, "accurate_own_half_passes": 43.6649, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4517, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7143, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 76.3815, "possession_lost": 4.8032, "dispossessed": 0.0657, "duels_lost": 1.7832, "aerial_lost": 0.5966, "total_contest": 0.0535, "won_contest": 0.0434, "ball_recovery": 2.7248, "challenges_lost": 0.3298, "fouls": 0.7929, "fouls_drawn": 1.3695, "blocks": 0.6605, "goal_rate": 0.0692, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "expected_assists": 0.059, "shots_on_target": 0.1388, "big_chances_created": 0.115, "xgot": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 20.6641, "total_progression": 101.731, "progressive_carries": 1.1948, "key_pass": 0.2014, "shots_off_target": 0.3023, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619, "opponent_faced": "Filip Ugrinić", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1562, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.256, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7009, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9022, "team_expected_assists": 1.4664, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3264, "xa_scale": 1.6253, "opponent_lambda": 0.935, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0531, "after": 0.0704 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0363, "after": 0.059 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.1388, "big_chances_created": 0.115, "xgot": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 20.6641, "total_progression": 101.731, "progressive_carries": 1.1948, "key_pass": 0.2014, "shots_off_target": 0.3023, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619, "opponent_faced": "Filip Ugrinić", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1562, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 834, "fifa_rank": 671.0, "fifa_source": "EA 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"blocks": 0.6605, "goal_rate": 0.0692, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "expected_assists": 0.059, "shots_on_target": 0.1388, "big_chances_created": 0.115, "xgot": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 20.6641, "total_progression": 101.731, "progressive_carries": 1.1948, "key_pass": 0.2014, "shots_off_target": 0.3023, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619, "opponent_faced": "Filip Ugrinić", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.068, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1562, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.068, "goal_rate": 0.0692, "scorer_weight": 0.0814, "squad_weight_total": 2.5662, "weight_share": 0.0317, "finishing_factor": 1.1562, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.4047, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.4047, "runner_up": "Arda Güler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3079 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.4047, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5978, "runner_up": "Arda Güler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3079 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7209, "tackles": 0.9297, "tackles_won": 0.5811, "clearances": 3.5488, "aerial_won": 1.0953, "total_shots": 0.4412, "rating": 6.976, "minutes": 87.26, "total_pass": 67.4827, "accurate_pass": 63.3791, "duels_won": 2.8032, 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"defensive_success_rate": 0.619, "opponent_faced": "Filip Ugrinić", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.068, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0573, "finishing_factor": 1.1562, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0573, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0472, "squad_weight_total": 1.4244, "weight_share": 0.0331, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Arda Güler", "weight": 0.296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.296, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2179, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ] } ] } } ] }, "Dean Huijsen": { "player_id": 1176744, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 195, "market_value": 66000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0558, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 61, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 40, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 4.7819, "dispossessed": 0.021, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0206, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0126, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0854, "expected_assists": 0.046, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0645, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 103, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0131, quality 0.864)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1882, "tackles": 1.1789, "tackles_won": 0.697, "clearances": 5.3291, "aerial_won": 1.5642, "total_shots": 0.497, "rating": 7.0558, "minutes": 84.35, "total_pass": 64.9681, "accurate_pass": 60.8266, "duels_won": 3.0123, "total_long_balls": 5.9476, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4706, "total_own_half_passes": 40.3639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0409, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.6041, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7856, "crosses_total": 0.0809, "crosses_accurate": 0.0797, "touches": 77.9807, "possession_lost": 4.7819, "dispossessed": 0.021, "duels_lost": 1.8195, "aerial_lost": 0.9937, "total_contest": 0.0059, "won_contest": 0.0059, "ball_recovery": 2.9885, "challenges_lost": 0.1646, "fouls": 0.6789, "fouls_drawn": 0.6057, "blocks": 0.9867, "goals": 0.0209, 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"duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Arnaut Danjuma", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1892, "tackles": 1.1789, "tackles_won": 0.7008, "clearances": 5.3291, "aerial_won": 1.5642, "total_shots": 0.504, "rating": 7.0558, "minutes": 84.35, "total_pass": 64.9681, "accurate_pass": 60.8266, "duels_won": 3.0123, "total_long_balls": 5.9476, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4706, "total_own_half_passes": 40.3639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0409, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.6041, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7856, "crosses_total": 0.0796, "crosses_accurate": 0.0796, "touches": 77.9807, "possession_lost": 4.7819, "dispossessed": 0.021, "duels_lost": 1.8195, "aerial_lost": 0.9937, 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"scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.7009, xG scale 1.3264, xA scale 1.6253, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1892, "tackles": 1.1789, "tackles_won": 0.7008, "clearances": 5.3291, "aerial_won": 1.5642, "total_shots": 0.504, "rating": 7.0558, "minutes": 84.35, "total_pass": 64.9681, "accurate_pass": 60.8266, "duels_won": 3.0123, "total_long_balls": 5.9476, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4706, "total_own_half_passes": 40.3639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.0409, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.6041, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7856, "crosses_total": 0.0796, "crosses_accurate": 0.0796, "touches": 77.9807, "possession_lost": 4.7819, "dispossessed": 0.021, "duels_lost": 1.8195, "aerial_lost": 0.9937, "total_contest": 0.0059, "won_contest": 0.0059, "ball_recovery": 2.9885, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0582 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0384 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": 0.0044, "total": 6.9334, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.058182 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.038411 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.030303 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.013117 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009836 } ], "others_margin": 0.004463 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0130, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9321, "tackles": 1.9621, "tackles_won": 1.2387, "clearances": 1.8291, "aerial_won": 0.7031, "total_shots": 0.4971, "rating": 6.9334, "minutes": 76.71, "total_pass": 55.7668, "accurate_pass": 50.4359, "duels_won": 4.4132, "total_long_balls": 1.953, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9009, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2787, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.1893, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.2466, "crosses_total": 0.8514, "crosses_accurate": 0.1713, "touches": 74.4645, "possession_lost": 8.901, "dispossessed": 0.6402, "duels_lost": 2.7294, "aerial_lost": 0.5536, "total_contest": 0.9972, "won_contest": 0.8196, "ball_recovery": 4.1367, "challenges_lost": 0.6342, "fouls": 0.7238, "fouls_drawn": 0.8811, "blocks": 0.1512, "goals": 0.1641, 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0.1512, "goal_rate": 0.163, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1207, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "expected_assists": 0.0771, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "big_chances_created": 0.2506, "xgot": 0.1198, "ball_carries": 16.1817, "total_progression": 60.5424, "progressive_carries": 0.9909, "key_pass": 1.3964, "shots_off_target": 0.2664, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.7009, xG scale 1.3264, xA scale 1.6253, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9354, "tackles": 1.9621, "tackles_won": 1.2399, "clearances": 1.8291, "aerial_won": 0.7031, "total_shots": 0.4955, "rating": 6.9334, "minutes": 76.71, "total_pass": 55.7668, "accurate_pass": 50.4359, "duels_won": 4.4132, "total_long_balls": 1.953, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9009, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2787, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.1893, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.2466, "crosses_total": 0.8553, "crosses_accurate": 0.1713, "touches": 74.4645, "possession_lost": 8.901, "dispossessed": 0.6402, "duels_lost": 2.7294, "aerial_lost": 0.5536, "total_contest": 0.9972, "won_contest": 0.8196, "ball_recovery": 4.1367, "challenges_lost": 0.6342, "fouls": 0.7237, "fouls_drawn": 0.8799, "blocks": 0.1512, "goal_rate": 0.163, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1207, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "expected_assists": 0.1253, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "big_chances_created": 0.2506, "xgot": 0.1589, "ball_carries": 16.1817, "total_progression": 60.5424, "progressive_carries": 0.9909, "key_pass": 1.3964, "shots_off_target": 0.2664, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.256, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7009, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9022, "team_expected_assists": 1.4664, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3264, "xa_scale": 1.6253, "opponent_lambda": 0.935, "scoreline_reset": true, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0126, quality 0.875)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5925, "expected_assists": 0.041, "assists": 0.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goals": 0.0489, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.1801, "total_shots": 0.837, "rating": 7.0257, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 53.0751, "accurate_pass": 49.3386, "duels_won": 4.5257, "total_long_balls": 3.7838, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6652, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2494, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2039, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1347, "crosses_total": 0.1533, "crosses_accurate": 0.0036, "touches": 64.8378, "possession_lost": 5.0725, "dispossessed": 0.2874, "duels_lost": 2.8367, "aerial_won": 1.2886, "aerial_lost": 0.5253, "interceptions": 1.8702, "tackles_won": 1.3444, "tackles": 2.5747, "clearances": 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"expected_assists": 0.041, "assists": 0.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "expected_goals": 0.066, "goals": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "shots_on_target": 0.2293, "total_shots": 1.0658, "rating": 7.0257, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 53.0751, "accurate_pass": 49.3386, "duels_won": 4.5257, "total_long_balls": 3.7838, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6652, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2494, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2039, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1347, "crosses_total": 0.1533, "crosses_accurate": 0.0036, "touches": 64.8378, "possession_lost": 5.0725, "dispossessed": 0.2874, "duels_lost": 2.8367, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.5253, "interceptions": 1.8702, "tackles_won": 1.3444, "tackles": 2.5747, "clearances": 1.4469, "total_contest": 0.2231, "won_contest": 0.0585, "challenges_lost": 0.905, "fouls": 0.9569, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.2263, "big_chances_created": 0.0142, "big_chances_missed": 0.0509, "xgot": 0.0442, "ball_carries": 13.9616, 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"Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pepelu", "opponent_faced": "Pepelu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9681, "creation_factor": 1.1857 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.256, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7009, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9022, "team_expected_assists": 1.4664, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3264, "xa_scale": 1.6253, "opponent_lambda": 0.935, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.066, "after": 0.0875 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.041, "after": 0.0666 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5925, "expected_assists": 0.0666, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0875, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2293, "total_shots": 1.0658, "rating": 7.0257, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 53.0751, "accurate_pass": 49.3386, "duels_won": 4.5257, "total_long_balls": 3.7838, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6652, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2494, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2039, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.8257, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1347, "crosses_total": 0.1533, "crosses_accurate": 0.0036, "touches": 64.8378, "possession_lost": 5.0725, "dispossessed": 0.2874, "duels_lost": 2.8367, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.5253, "interceptions": 1.8702, "tackles_won": 1.3444, "tackles": 2.5747, "clearances": 1.4469, "total_contest": 0.2231, "won_contest": 0.0585, "challenges_lost": 0.905, "fouls": 0.9569, "fouls_drawn": 0.6039, "blocks": 0.2263, "big_chances_created": 0.0142, "big_chances_missed": 0.0509, "xgot": 0.0586, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 43.6031, "progressive_carries": 0.4625, "shots_off_target": 0.8364, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2733, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.586, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pepelu", "opponent_faced": "Pepelu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9681, "creation_factor": 1.1857, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 300, "fifa_rank": 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"contribution": 0.0517 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0494 } ], "others": 0.0258, "total": 1.6556, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.389843 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.173253 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.079525 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.051738 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.049365 } ], "others_margin": 0.025622 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.124374866485596, "model_output": 7.1244, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1083 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0766 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": 0.0493, "total": 7.1244, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.10834 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.076551 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034095 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015326 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.014031 } ], "others_margin": 0.04928 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0138, quality 0.899)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2524, "expected_assists": 0.1378, "assists": 0.1251, "assist_rate": 0.1251, "expected_goals": 0.1387, "goals": 0.1529, "goal_rate": 0.1529, "shots_on_target": 0.5848, "total_shots": 1.6784, "rating": 7.1244, "minutes": 83.17, "total_pass": 38.439, "accurate_pass": 33.5133, "duels_won": 8.4842, "total_long_balls": 3.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.382, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.6117, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1313, "crosses_total": 0.3818, "crosses_accurate": 0.028, "touches": 59.626, "possession_lost": 10.1087, "dispossessed": 1.1714, "duels_lost": 5.2871, "aerial_won": 0.6141, "aerial_lost": 1.49, "interceptions": 0.5104, "tackles_won": 1.4406, "tackles": 2.319, "clearances": 0.8244, "total_contest": 3.4656, "won_contest": 2.2622, "challenges_lost": 0.4891, "fouls": 0.9679, "fouls_drawn": 3.3107, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.3793, "big_chances_missed": 0.1282, "xgot": 0.1937, "ball_carries": 19.8636, "total_progression": 69.6888, "progressive_carries": 2.3672, "shots_off_target": 1.0936 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 151000000, "quality_factor": 0.8995, "boost_factor": 1.0138, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0136)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2524, "expected_assists": 0.1378, "assists": 0.1327, "assist_rate": 0.1327, "expected_goals": 0.1387, "goals": 0.1601, "goal_rate": 0.1601, "shots_on_target": 0.5956, "total_shots": 1.693, "rating": 7.1244, "minutes": 83.17, "total_pass": 38.439, "accurate_pass": 33.5133, "duels_won": 8.4842, "total_long_balls": 3.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.382, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.6117, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1313, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.028, "touches": 59.626, "possession_lost": 10.1087, "dispossessed": 1.1714, "duels_lost": 5.2871, "aerial_won": 0.6141, "aerial_lost": 1.49, "interceptions": 0.5035, "tackles_won": 1.4396, "tackles": 2.319, "clearances": 0.8244, "total_contest": 3.4656, "won_contest": 2.2622, "challenges_lost": 0.4891, "fouls": 0.964, "fouls_drawn": 3.2983, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.3793, "big_chances_missed": 0.1282, "xgot": 0.1937, "ball_carries": 19.8636, "total_progression": 69.6888, "progressive_carries": 2.3672, "shots_off_target": 1.0936 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0136, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9241, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6784, "after": 1.693 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 3.3107, "after": 3.2983 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5848, "after": 0.5956 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1251, "after": 0.1327 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1529, "after": 0.1601 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5104, "after": 0.5035 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2524, "expected_assists": 0.1378, "assists": 0.1327, "assist_rate": 0.1327, "expected_goals": 0.1387, "goals": 0.1601, "goal_rate": 0.1601, "shots_on_target": 0.5956, "total_shots": 1.693, "rating": 7.1244, "minutes": 83.17, "total_pass": 38.439, "accurate_pass": 33.5133, "duels_won": 8.4842, "total_long_balls": 3.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.382, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.6117, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1313, "crosses_total": 0.3813, 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.7009, xG scale 1.3264, xA scale 1.6253, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2524, "expected_assists": 0.224, "assist_rate": 0.1327, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2358, "goal_rate": 0.2052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7636, "total_shots": 2.1704, "rating": 7.1244, "minutes": 83.17, "total_pass": 38.439, "accurate_pass": 33.5133, "duels_won": 8.4842, "total_long_balls": 3.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.382, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.6117, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1313, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.028, "touches": 59.626, "possession_lost": 10.1087, 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"importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1474 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1339 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0457 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0388 } ], "others": -0.1478, "total": 0.7337, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.14745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.133933 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.109985 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045722 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.038756 } ], "others_margin": -0.147844 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.89948844909668, "model_output": 6.8995, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0552 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0514 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.017 } ], "others": -0.034, "total": 6.8995, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.055226 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.051441 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.037091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.018233 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01704 } ], "others_margin": -0.034064 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 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0.496, "total_contest": 1.5464, "won_contest": 0.9285, "challenges_lost": 2.8284, "fouls": 1.3105, "fouls_drawn": 1.1897, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2752, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0292, "ball_carries": 21.3551, "total_progression": 43.865, "progressive_carries": 0.879, "shots_off_target": 0.5247 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18200000, "quality_factor": 0.613, "boost_factor": 1.0108, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8462, "expected_assists": 0.0543, "assists": 0.0643, "assist_rate": 0.0643, "expected_goals": 0.0553, "goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.0484, "shots_on_target": 0.2169, "total_shots": 0.7416, "rating": 6.8995, "minutes": 74.21, "total_pass": 52.8794, "accurate_pass": 48.0418, "duels_won": 3.7333, "total_long_balls": 2.2492, 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1.6311211585998535, "model_output": 1.6311, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1743 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1127 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1256 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.1147 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0815 } ], "others": 0.3306, "total": 1.6311, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.224757 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.122298 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.120745 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.098819 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.064696 } ], "others_margin": 0.226538 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.8382182121276855, "model_output": 7.8382, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.2024 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1886 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1607 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0889 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0475 } ], "others": 0.3768, "total": 7.8382, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.202433 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.188632 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.160686 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.088852 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.047525 } ], "others_margin": 0.376756 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0129, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7088, "goals": 0.9815, "goal_rate": 0.9815, "shots_on_target": 2.0425, "total_shots": 3.8724, "expected_assists": 0.1804, "key_pass": 1.6522, "rating": 7.8382, "minutes": 88.53, "total_pass": 29.5898, "accurate_pass": 25.0753, "duels_won": 5.0644, "total_long_balls": 1.6304, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0361, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5918, "crosses_total": 1.1122, "crosses_accurate": 0.0194, "touches": 50.0424, "possession_lost": 13.125, "dispossessed": 1.3335, "duels_lost": 4.6603, "aerial_lost": 0.1986, "total_contest": 5.4435, "won_contest": 2.9787, "ball_recovery": 1.0094, "challenges_lost": 0.2253, "fouls": 0.6096, "fouls_drawn": 1.7267, "assists": 0.1538, "assist_rate": 0.1538, "interceptions": 0.1985, 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"totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.086151 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.070586 } ], "others_margin": -0.109345 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.21182172000408173, "model_output": 0.2118, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8055 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2105 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0581 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0428 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0224 } ], "others": -0.0186, "total": 0.2118, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.886867 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.466945 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.179541 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.156293 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.092838 } ], "others_margin": -0.08412 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2739429771900177, "model_output": 0.2739, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2677 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0183 } ], "others": 0.0209, "total": 0.2739, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.267672 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.022091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.019692 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018764 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018268 } ], "others_margin": 0.020935 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.822836875915527, "model_output": 6.8228, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0161, "total": 6.8228, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.028216 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.026589 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022555 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.022505 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.014796 } ], "others_margin": -0.016006 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"shots_on_target": 0.0868, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0076, "ball_carries": 3.2874, "total_progression": 5.3522, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3007, "shots_off_target": 0.1564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.443, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.9 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.9, "projection_minutes": 14.79, "minutes_scale": 0.8722, "appearance_probability": 0.443 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2881, "tackles": 0.4142, "tackles_won": 0.3242, "clearances": 0.7221, "aerial_won": 0.1878, "total_shots": 0.2432, "rating": 6.8228, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 6.9725, "accurate_pass": 5.3918, "duels_won": 0.6494, "total_long_balls": 2.0555, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0157, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0802, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9833, "crosses_total": 1.0082, "crosses_accurate": 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"total_shots": 0.2432, "rating": 6.8228, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 6.9725, "accurate_pass": 5.3918, "duels_won": 0.6494, "total_long_balls": 2.0555, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0157, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8922, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0802, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9833, "crosses_total": 1.0082, "crosses_accurate": 0.3339, "touches": 11.1607, "possession_lost": 3.0142, "dispossessed": 0.0843, "duels_lost": 0.1921, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1408, "won_contest": 0.1408, "ball_recovery": 0.4764, "challenges_lost": 0.0517, "fouls": 0.073, "fouls_drawn": 0.1197, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0868, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0091, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "shots_on_target": 0.0868, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0076, "ball_carries": 3.2874, "total_progression": 5.3522, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3007, "shots_off_target": 0.1564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.443, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.9, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.753, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.443, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"contribution": -0.1921 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.096 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0571, "total": 0.0975, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.192063 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.09603 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019642 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009874 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.008974 } ], "others_margin": -0.05713 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.737511157989502, "model_output": 6.7375, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.024, "total": 6.7375, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025084 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018481 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.018218 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013283 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012424 } ], "others_margin": -0.023948 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0108, quality 0.857)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3701, "tackles": 0.8016, "tackles_won": 0.5686, "clearances": 0.9002, "aerial_won": 0.2861, "total_shots": 0.1832, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 27.53, "total_pass": 18.5699, "accurate_pass": 15.3637, "duels_won": 2.6979, "total_long_balls": 2.0658, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0668, "total_own_half_passes": 8.2675, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.3381, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3025, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0258, "crosses_total": 0.4951, "crosses_accurate": 0.0991, "touches": 27.2788, "possession_lost": 4.2383, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2078, "aerial_lost": 0.2454, "total_contest": 0.4128, "won_contest": 0.2232, "ball_recovery": 2.2399, "challenges_lost": 0.3516, "fouls": 0.4212, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2232, "goals": 0.0991, 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], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0018, "total": 0.034, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.462784 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.204326 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.185798 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.068272 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05139 } ], "others_margin": -0.049212 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07082601636648178, "model_output": 0.0708, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1421 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.059 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0159, "total": 0.0708, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.592534 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.409053 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.163147 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.083695 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.050361 } ], "others_margin": -0.20265 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1652059257030487, "model_output": 0.1652, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3384 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2641 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0328 } ], "others": -0.1086, "total": 0.1652, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.338405 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.264097 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041323 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034493 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.032832 } ], "others_margin": -0.108579 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.756659507751465, "model_output": 6.7567, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1051 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": 0.0195, "total": 6.7567, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.105093 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021576 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016944 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012317 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011078 } ], "others_margin": 0.019474 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4039, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assists": 0.0392, "assist_rate": 0.0392, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "shots_on_target": 0.0716, "total_shots": 0.167, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 18.06, "total_pass": 14.4223, "accurate_pass": 12.9534, "duels_won": 2.1072, "total_long_balls": 1.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7325, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.39, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5634, "crosses_total": 0.0085, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.883, "possession_lost": 1.9609, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.786, "aerial_won": 0.1753, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.2034, "tackles_won": 0.3676, "tackles": 0.8936, "clearances": 0.4675, 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"name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0077 } ], "others": 0.013, "total": 0.1096, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.623746, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.656299 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.188955 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.133789 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.085528 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.082919 } ], "others_margin": 0.127199 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5019967555999756, "model_output": 0.502, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2173 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { 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"name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": 0.0127, "total": 0.0776, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.434545 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.166801 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.132022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.074997 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.060747 } ], "others_margin": 0.17683 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8049604296684265, "model_output": 0.805, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2449 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0697 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0433 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0437 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0414 } ], "others": 0.1601, "total": 0.805, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.437093 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.144912 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.080582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.075247 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.0664 } ], "others_margin": 0.221573 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.063612461090088, "model_output": 7.0636, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1173 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0882 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0392 } ], "others": 0.1993, "total": 7.0636, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.11726 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.088212 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.041554 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.039331 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.039195 } ], "others_margin": 0.199249 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0121, quality 0.899)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1549, "goals": 0.111, "goal_rate": 0.111, "shots_on_target": 0.5081, "total_shots": 1.3313, "expected_assists": 0.0785, "key_pass": 0.8147, "rating": 7.0636, "minutes": 26.09, "total_pass": 9.0676, "accurate_pass": 6.5892, "duels_won": 2.8285, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1822, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7037, "crosses_total": 0.8445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.6885, "possession_lost": 8.239, "dispossessed": 1.2008, "duels_lost": 3.335, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6209, "won_contest": 1.2417, "ball_recovery": 0.5073, "challenges_lost": 0.3397, "fouls": 0.5579, "fouls_drawn": 1.302, "assists": 0.1425, "assist_rate": 0.1425, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2849, 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"name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0307 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3756, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5339 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0792 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0548 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0471 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": 0.0308 } ], "others": -0.0622, "total": 0.7388, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.375643, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.533877 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.079182 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.054774 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.047094 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": 0.030822 } ], "others_margin": -0.062318 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07612751424312592, "model_output": 0.0761, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1287 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0041 } ], "others": 0.0194, "total": 0.0761, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.428606 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.175095 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.120999 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.079013 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.074369 } ], "others_margin": 0.295135 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7732141613960266, "model_output": 0.7732, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2429 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.066 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0421 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0303 } ], "others": 0.1441, "total": 0.7732, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.432632 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.137165 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.078238 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.072981 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049412 } ], "others_margin": 0.20622 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.960559844970703, "model_output": 6.9606, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1144 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0901 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0556 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0329 } ], "others": 0.0911, "total": 6.9606, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.114365 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.09007 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.055627 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049248 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.032911 } ], "others_margin": 0.090965 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0394, quality 0.899)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "shots_on_target": 0.2275, "total_shots": 0.7679, "expected_assists": 0.0791, "key_pass": 0.8037, "rating": 6.9606, "minutes": 24.18, "total_pass": 10.6617, "accurate_pass": 9.0399, "duels_won": 3.4536, "total_long_balls": 0.3184, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1462, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7399, "crosses_total": 1.3677, "crosses_accurate": 0.3846, "touches": 20.0468, "possession_lost": 5.5267, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.7819, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.7333, "won_contest": 1.8802, "ball_recovery": 0.7592, "challenges_lost": 0.2382, "fouls": 0.2382, "fouls_drawn": 1.4013, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2802, "xgot": 0.0054, "offsides": 0.2802, "ball_carries": 7.7742, "total_progression": 38.3928, "progressive_carries": 0.6111, "shots_off_target": 0.5404 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 132000000, "quality_factor": 0.8986, "boost_factor": 1.0394, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goals": 0.084, "goal_rate": 0.084, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.7601, "expected_assists": 0.0791, "key_pass": 0.8037, "rating": 6.9606, "minutes": 24.18, "total_pass": 10.6617, "accurate_pass": 9.0399, "duels_won": 3.4536, "total_long_balls": 0.3184, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1462, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7399, "crosses_total": 1.3694, "crosses_accurate": 0.3846, "touches": 20.0468, "possession_lost": 5.5267, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.7819, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.7333, "won_contest": 1.8802, "ball_recovery": 0.7592, "challenges_lost": 0.2382, "fouls": 0.2358, "fouls_drawn": 1.3871, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2802, "xgot": 0.0054, "offsides": 0.2774, "ball_carries": 7.7742, "total_progression": 38.3928, "progressive_carries": 0.6111, "shots_off_target": 0.5404 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2687, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.4013, "after": 1.3871 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7679, "after": 0.7601 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.2 to 23.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goals": 0.0806, "goal_rate": 0.0806, "shots_on_target": 0.2161, "total_shots": 0.7346, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.7711, "rating": 6.9606, "minutes": 23.2, "total_pass": 10.2296, "accurate_pass": 8.6735, "duels_won": 3.3136, "total_long_balls": 0.3055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1403, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4667, "crosses_total": 1.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.369, "touches": 19.2343, "possession_lost": 5.3027, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.7097, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6225, "won_contest": 1.804, "ball_recovery": 0.7284, "challenges_lost": 0.2382, "fouls": 0.2262, "fouls_drawn": 1.3309, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2688, "xgot": 0.0052, "offsides": 0.2774, "ball_carries": 7.4591, "total_progression": 36.8368, "progressive_carries": 0.5863, "shots_off_target": 0.5185, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.2 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.2, "projection_minutes": 24.18, "minutes_scale": 0.9595, "appearance_probability": 0.756 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goals": 0.0806, "goal_rate": 0.0806, "shots_on_target": 0.2161, "total_shots": 0.7346, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.7711, "rating": 6.9606, "minutes": 23.2, "total_pass": 10.2296, "accurate_pass": 8.6735, "duels_won": 3.3136, "total_long_balls": 0.3055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1403, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4667, "crosses_total": 1.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.369, "touches": 19.2343, "possession_lost": 5.3027, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.7097, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6225, "won_contest": 1.804, "ball_recovery": 0.7284, "challenges_lost": 0.2382, "fouls": 0.2262, "fouls_drawn": 1.3309, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2688, "xgot": 0.0052, "offsides": 0.2774, "ball_carries": 7.4591, "total_progression": 36.8368, "progressive_carries": 0.5863, "shots_off_target": 0.5185, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.2 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2161, "total_shots": 0.7346, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.7711, "rating": 6.9606, "minutes": 23.2, "total_pass": 10.2296, "accurate_pass": 8.6735, "duels_won": 3.3136, "total_long_balls": 0.3055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1403, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4667, "crosses_total": 1.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.369, "touches": 19.2343, "possession_lost": 5.3027, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.7097, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6225, "won_contest": 1.804, "ball_recovery": 0.7284, "challenges_lost": 0.2382, "fouls": 0.2262, "fouls_drawn": 1.3309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2688, "xgot": 0.0052, "offsides": 0.2774, "ball_carries": 7.4591, "total_progression": 36.8368, "progressive_carries": 0.5863, "shots_off_target": 0.5185, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.2, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.753, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.7009, xG scale 1.3264, xA scale 1.6253, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goal_rate": 0.0806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2161, "total_shots": 0.7346, "expected_assists": 0.0933, "key_pass": 0.7711, "rating": 6.9606, "minutes": 23.2, "total_pass": 10.2296, "accurate_pass": 8.6735, "duels_won": 3.3136, "total_long_balls": 0.3055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1403, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4667, "crosses_total": 1.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.369, "touches": 19.2343, "possession_lost": 5.3027, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.7097, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6225, "won_contest": 1.804, "ball_recovery": 0.7284, "challenges_lost": 0.2382, "fouls": 0.2262, "fouls_drawn": 1.3309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2688, "xgot": 0.0052, "offsides": 0.2774, "ball_carries": 7.4591, "total_progression": 36.8368, "progressive_carries": 0.5863, "shots_off_target": 0.5185, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.2, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.753, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, 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25.3213, "expectedGoals": 0.1148, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 15.1796, "totalShots": 1.3867, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 19.3109 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06676405668258667, "model_output": 0.0668, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2767 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0987 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0236 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1929, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0854 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 0.0668, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.645586, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 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"contribution": -0.0792 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0548 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0471 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": 0.0308 } ], "others": -0.0622, "total": 0.7388, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.375643, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.533877 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.079182 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.054774 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.047094 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": 0.030822 } ], "others_margin": -0.062318 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07612751424312592, "model_output": 0.0761, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1287 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0041 } ], "others": 0.0194, "total": 0.0761, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.428606 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.175095 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.120999 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.079013 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.074369 } ], "others_margin": 0.295135 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7732141613960266, "model_output": 0.7732, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2429 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.066 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0421 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0303 } ], "others": 0.1441, "total": 0.7732, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.432632 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.137165 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.078238 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.072981 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049412 } ], "others_margin": 0.20622 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.960559844970703, "model_output": 6.9606, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1144 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0901 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0556 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0329 } ], "others": 0.0911, "total": 6.9606, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.114365 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.09007 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.055627 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049248 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.032911 } ], "others_margin": 0.090965 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0394, quality 0.899)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "shots_on_target": 0.2275, "total_shots": 0.7679, "expected_assists": 0.0791, "key_pass": 0.8037, "rating": 6.9606, "minutes": 24.18, "total_pass": 10.6617, "accurate_pass": 9.0399, "duels_won": 3.4536, "total_long_balls": 0.3184, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1462, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7399, "crosses_total": 1.3677, "crosses_accurate": 0.3846, "touches": 20.0468, "possession_lost": 5.5267, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.7819, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.7333, "won_contest": 1.8802, "ball_recovery": 0.7592, "challenges_lost": 0.2382, "fouls": 0.2382, "fouls_drawn": 1.4013, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2802, "xgot": 0.0054, "offsides": 0.2802, "ball_carries": 7.7742, "total_progression": 38.3928, "progressive_carries": 0.6111, "shots_off_target": 0.5404 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 132000000, "quality_factor": 0.8986, "boost_factor": 1.0394, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goals": 0.084, "goal_rate": 0.084, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.7601, "expected_assists": 0.0791, "key_pass": 0.8037, "rating": 6.9606, "minutes": 24.18, "total_pass": 10.6617, "accurate_pass": 9.0399, "duels_won": 3.4536, "total_long_balls": 0.3184, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1462, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7399, "crosses_total": 1.3694, "crosses_accurate": 0.3846, "touches": 20.0468, "possession_lost": 5.5267, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.7819, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.7333, "won_contest": 1.8802, "ball_recovery": 0.7592, "challenges_lost": 0.2382, "fouls": 0.2358, "fouls_drawn": 1.3871, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2802, "xgot": 0.0054, "offsides": 0.2774, "ball_carries": 7.7742, "total_progression": 38.3928, "progressive_carries": 0.6111, "shots_off_target": 0.5404 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2687, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.4013, "after": 1.3871 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7679, "after": 0.7601 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.2 to 23.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goals": 0.0806, "goal_rate": 0.0806, "shots_on_target": 0.2161, "total_shots": 0.7346, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.7711, "rating": 6.9606, "minutes": 23.2, "total_pass": 10.2296, "accurate_pass": 8.6735, "duels_won": 3.3136, "total_long_balls": 0.3055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1403, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4667, "crosses_total": 1.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.369, "touches": 19.2343, "possession_lost": 5.3027, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.7097, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6225, "won_contest": 1.804, "ball_recovery": 0.7284, "challenges_lost": 0.2382, "fouls": 0.2262, "fouls_drawn": 1.3309, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2688, "xgot": 0.0052, "offsides": 0.2774, "ball_carries": 7.4591, "total_progression": 36.8368, "progressive_carries": 0.5863, "shots_off_target": 0.5185, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.2 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.2, "projection_minutes": 24.18, "minutes_scale": 0.9595, "appearance_probability": 0.756 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goals": 0.0806, "goal_rate": 0.0806, "shots_on_target": 0.2161, "total_shots": 0.7346, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.7711, "rating": 6.9606, "minutes": 23.2, "total_pass": 10.2296, "accurate_pass": 8.6735, "duels_won": 3.3136, "total_long_balls": 0.3055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1403, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4667, "crosses_total": 1.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.369, "touches": 19.2343, "possession_lost": 5.3027, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.7097, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6225, "won_contest": 1.804, "ball_recovery": 0.7284, "challenges_lost": 0.2382, "fouls": 0.2262, "fouls_drawn": 1.3309, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2688, "xgot": 0.0052, "offsides": 0.2774, "ball_carries": 7.4591, "total_progression": 36.8368, "progressive_carries": 0.5863, "shots_off_target": 0.5185, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.2 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0806, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2161, "total_shots": 0.7346, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.7711, "rating": 6.9606, "minutes": 23.2, "total_pass": 10.2296, "accurate_pass": 8.6735, "duels_won": 3.3136, "total_long_balls": 0.3055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1403, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4667, "crosses_total": 1.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.369, "touches": 19.2343, "possession_lost": 5.3027, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.7097, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6225, "won_contest": 1.804, "ball_recovery": 0.7284, "challenges_lost": 0.2382, "fouls": 0.2262, "fouls_drawn": 1.3309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2688, "xgot": 0.0052, "offsides": 0.2774, "ball_carries": 7.4591, "total_progression": 36.8368, "progressive_carries": 0.5863, "shots_off_target": 0.5185, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.2, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.587543 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.425736 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.252439 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058342 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.053939 } ], "others_margin": -0.272192 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03404182568192482, "model_output": 0.034, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0018, "total": 0.034, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.462784 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.204326 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.185798 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.068272 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05139 } ], "others_margin": -0.049212 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07082601636648178, "model_output": 0.0708, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1421 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.059 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0159, "total": 0.0708, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.592534 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.409053 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.163147 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.083695 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.050361 } ], "others_margin": -0.20265 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1652059257030487, "model_output": 0.1652, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3384 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2641 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0328 } ], "others": -0.1086, "total": 0.1652, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.338405 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.264097 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041323 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034493 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.032832 } ], "others_margin": -0.108579 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.756659507751465, "model_output": 6.7567, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1051 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": 0.0195, "total": 6.7567, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.105093 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021576 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016944 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012317 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011078 } ], "others_margin": 0.019474 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4039, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assists": 0.0392, "assist_rate": 0.0392, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "shots_on_target": 0.0716, "total_shots": 0.167, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 18.06, "total_pass": 14.4223, "accurate_pass": 12.9534, "duels_won": 2.1072, "total_long_balls": 1.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7325, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.39, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5634, "crosses_total": 0.0085, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.883, "possession_lost": 1.9609, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.786, "aerial_won": 0.1753, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.2034, "tackles_won": 0.3676, "tackles": 0.8936, "clearances": 0.4675, "total_contest": 0.4298, "won_contest": 0.3733, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3795, "fouls_drawn": 0.6651, "blocks": 0.3765, "big_chances_created": 0.174, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5041, "total_progression": 24.0897, "progressive_carries": 0.6447, "shots_off_target": 0.0954 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0109, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0066)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4039, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0389, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "goals": 0.0342, "goal_rate": 0.0342, "shots_on_target": 0.0711, "total_shots": 0.1659, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 18.06, "total_pass": 14.4223, "accurate_pass": 12.9534, "duels_won": 2.1072, "total_long_balls": 1.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7325, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.39, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5634, "crosses_total": 0.0084, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.883, "possession_lost": 1.9609, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.786, "aerial_won": 0.1753, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.2051, "tackles_won": 0.3672, "tackles": 0.8936, "clearances": 0.4675, "total_contest": 0.4298, "won_contest": 0.3733, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.38, "fouls_drawn": 0.6607, "blocks": 0.3765, "big_chances_created": 0.174, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5041, "total_progression": 24.0897, "progressive_carries": 0.6447, "shots_off_target": 0.0954 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0066, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2007, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.1 to 17.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assists": 0.037, "assist_rate": 0.037, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goals": 0.0325, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.16, "projection_minutes": 18.06, "minutes_scale": 0.9502, "appearance_probability": 0.594 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assists": 0.037, "assist_rate": 0.037, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goals": 0.0325, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.037, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.753, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.7009, xG scale 1.3264, xA scale 1.6253, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.037, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.753, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2332, "creation_factor": 1.0199 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.256, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7009, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9022, "team_expected_assists": 1.4664, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3264, "xa_scale": 1.6253, "opponent_lambda": 0.935, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.594 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.037, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.753, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2332, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 956, "fifa_rank": 578.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.037, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.753, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0132, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2332, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0132, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "scorer_weight": 0.0164, "squad_weight_total": 2.5662, "weight_share": 0.0064, "finishing_factor": 1.2332, "appearance_weight": 0.594, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.4047, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.4047, "runner_up": "Arda Güler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3079 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.4047, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5978, "runner_up": "Arda Güler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3079 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3838, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.037, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0676, "total_shots": 0.1582, "rating": 6.7567, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7036, "accurate_pass": 12.3079, "duels_won": 2.0022, "total_long_balls": 1.0463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1865, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.942, "possession_lost": 1.8632, "dispossessed": 0.1652, "duels_lost": 0.7468, "aerial_won": 0.1666, "aerial_lost": 0.0794, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "tackles": 0.8491, "clearances": 0.4442, "total_contest": 0.4084, "won_contest": 0.3547, "challenges_lost": 0.1365, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.6278, "blocks": 0.3577, "big_chances_created": 0.1653, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2796, "total_progression": 22.8892, "progressive_carries": 0.6126, "shots_off_target": 0.0906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.753, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0132, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0331, "finishing_factor": 1.2332, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0331, "assist_rate": 0.037, "provider_weight": 0.0348, "squad_weight_total": 1.4244, "weight_share": 0.0244, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "appearance_weight": 0.594, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Arda Güler", "weight": 0.296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.296, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2179, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.26, "expected_assists": 1.47, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 561, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 7.08, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Arnaut Danjuma", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Ibrahima Konaté" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0906, "xg_multiplier": 0.6245, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arnaut Danjuma (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dean Huijsen and Ibrahima Konaté in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €56M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.62 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.091 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Diego López", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9600000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.518, "defenders": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Ibrahima Konaté" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0961, "xg_multiplier": 0.6777, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Diego López (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dean Huijsen and Ibrahima Konaté in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €56M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.68 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Javier Guerra", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Álvaro Carreras" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.388, "xg_contribution": 0.1348, "xg_multiplier": 0.8943, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Álvaro Carreras", "role": "RB", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Guerra (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Álvaro Carreras in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €53M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.135 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Filip Ugrinić", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Raúl Asencio" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.593, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "xg_contribution": 0.044, "xg_multiplier": 0.8844, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Raúl Asencio", "role": "LB", "market_value": 16300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619 } ], "duel_analysis": "Filip Ugrinić (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Raúl Asencio in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pepelu", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Federico Valverde" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.887, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "xg_contribution": 0.0406, "xg_multiplier": 0.7629, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Federico Valverde", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.711 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pepelu (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Federico Valverde in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €87M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Guido Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Federico Valverde" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.887, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.266, "xg_contribution": 0.0303, "xg_multiplier": 0.7297, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Federico Valverde", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734 } ], "duel_analysis": "Guido Rodríguez (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Federico Valverde in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €87M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.73 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.030 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Arda Güler", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "José Luis Gayà" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.454, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.683, "xg_contribution": 0.2317, "xg_multiplier": 1.2987, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José Luis Gayà", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.317 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arda Güler (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against José Luis Gayà in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 68%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.30 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.232 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Thiago Pitarch", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 18200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.613, "defenders": [ "José Copete" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.456, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.496, "xg_contribution": 0.0566, "xg_multiplier": 1.0235, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José Copete", "role": "LB", "market_value": 4500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.504 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thiago Pitarch (RW) is evenly matched against José Copete in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jude Bellingham", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 151000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Pepelu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.612, "xg_contribution": 0.1778, "xg_multiplier": 1.282, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pepelu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.388 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jude Bellingham (CAM) has a clear attacking advantage against Pepelu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€151M vs €7M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.28 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.178 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 212000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Mouctar Diakhaby", "César Tárrega" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.476, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "xg_contribution": 0.8471, "xg_multiplier": 1.1952, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mouctar Diakhaby", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.667 }, { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.667 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) is slightly favored against Mouctar Diakhaby and César Tárrega in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€212M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.20 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.847 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Federico Valverde", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Pepelu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.561, "xg_contribution": 0.0726, "xg_multiplier": 1.2371, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pepelu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.439 } ], "duel_analysis": "Federico Valverde (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Pepelu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €7M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.24 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Pepelu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.586, "xg_contribution": 0.066, "xg_multiplier": 1.2733, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pepelu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.414 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aurélien Tchouaméni (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Pepelu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €7M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.27 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.548, "away_midfield_power": 0.883, "home_creative_power": 0.535, "away_creative_power": 0.834, "home_defensive_power": 0.443, "away_defensive_power": 0.76, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.383, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Javier Guerra", "Pepelu", "Guido Rodríguez", "Filip Ugrinić" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Federico Valverde", "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Jude Bellingham", "Arda Güler", "Thiago Pitarch" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 3.1, "key_personal_duel": "Javier Guerra vs Jude Bellingham", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.962, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.047 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.935, "away_lambda": 2.256, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Arnaut Danjuma": { "opponents": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Ibrahima Konaté" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Diego López": { "opponents": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Ibrahima Konaté" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Javier Guerra": { "opponents": [ "Álvaro Carreras", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Filip Ugrinić": { "opponents": [ "Raúl Asencio", "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pepelu": { "opponents": [ "Federico Valverde", "Jude Bellingham", "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Thiago Pitarch" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Guido Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Federico Valverde" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "José Luis Gayà": { "opponents": [ "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "José Copete": { "opponents": [ "Thiago Pitarch" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mouctar Diakhaby": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "César Tárrega": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Stole Dimitrievski": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé", "Jude Bellingham" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Dean Huijsen": { "opponents": [ "Arnaut Danjuma", "Diego López" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ibrahima Konaté": { "opponents": [ "Arnaut Danjuma", "Diego López" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álvaro Carreras": { "opponents": [ "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Raúl Asencio": { "opponents": [ "Filip Ugrinić" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Federico Valverde": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu", "Guido Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Arda Güler": { "opponents": [ "José Luis Gayà", "Filip Ugrinić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thiago Pitarch": { "opponents": [ "José Copete", "Pepelu" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jude Bellingham": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Mouctar Diakhaby", "César Tárrega" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Aurélien Tchouaméni": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu", "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thibaut Courtois": { "opponents": [ "Diego López", "Arnaut Danjuma" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Javier Guerra vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.44, Away: 1.45. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9548, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1701, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8965, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0018, "home_midfield_factor": 0.962, "away_midfield_factor": 1.047, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4908, "away_avg_quality": 0.8167, "avg_quality_gap": -0.3259, "squad_value_gap_log": -2.2829, "top5_value_gap_log": -2.2277, "attack_value_gap_log": -2.2998, "elite_count_gap": -8, "combined_quality_gap": -0.7059, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3883, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2259, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.4364, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.6648 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.962, "result": 0.6395 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.96, "result": 0.614 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 0.8238 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8304, "result": 0.6841 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9548, "result": 0.6531 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8965, "result": 0.5855 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1701, "result": 0.7556 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.7556, "result": 0.7556, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.7059, "factor": 0.7741, "pre": 0.7556, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 0.87 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.8222, "result": 0.8591 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8591, "result": 0.859, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.3, "result": 1.117 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9643, "pre": 1.117, "result": 1.0771, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9394, "pre": 1.0771, "result": 1.012 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 1.012 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.8992, "input_total": 3.755, "result": 0.91 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 0.91, "result": 0.91, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 0.935 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.4518, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.4263 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.047, "result": 1.4934 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.07, "result": 1.5979 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.5979 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.147, "result": 1.8328 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.8523 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0018, "result": 1.8557 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 2.0357 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 2.0357, "result": 2.0357, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.7059, "factor": 1.3883, "pre": 2.0357, "result": 2.826 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.826 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1474, "result": 2.9734 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.7333, "result": 2.4627 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.4627, "result": 2.463, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.05, "result": 2.586 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0357, "pre": 2.586, "result": 2.6783, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1815, "pre": 2.6783, "result": 3.164 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 3.164 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.8992, "input_total": 3.755, "result": 2.845 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 2.845, "result": 2.845, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 2.256 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1474, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Valencia", "away_squad": "Real Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.822, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.733, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.7059, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1815, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9394, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.0771, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.6783, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8591, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.4627, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.935, "final_away_lambda": 2.256 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8304, "attack_index": 0.756, "defense_concede_index": 0.847, "form_multiplier": 0.951, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.14, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.28, "team_ppg": 0.89, "opponent_ppg": 2.01 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.147, "attack_index": 1.298, "defense_concede_index": 1.057, "form_multiplier": 1.049, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.96, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.6, "team_ppg": 2.01, "opponent_ppg": 0.89 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Valencia vs Real Madrid. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.859, Away 2.463). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 0.935, Away 2.256 (most likely score 0-2).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Valencia", "away_squad": "Real Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.822, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.733, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 0.935, "away_lambda": 2.256, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.859, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 2.463 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:34:05Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }