{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Málaga", "away_team": "Racing Club", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261107", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-1-4-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1012, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1012, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0834, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Málaga", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2606, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1239 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1012 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0892 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0834 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0744 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0716, "0-1": 0.0834, "0-2": 0.0507, "0-3": 0.0203, "0-4": 0.0061, "0-5": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.1012, "1-1": 0.1239, "1-2": 0.0737, "1-3": 0.0295, "1-4": 0.0088, "1-5": 0.0021, "2-0": 0.0744, "2-1": 0.0892, "2-2": 0.0535, "2-3": 0.0214, "2-4": 0.0064, "2-5": 0.0015, "3-0": 0.036, "3-1": 0.0432, "3-2": 0.0259, "3-3": 0.0104, "3-4": 0.0031, "3-5": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0131, "4-1": 0.0157, "4-2": 0.0094, "4-3": 0.0038, "4-4": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0038, "5-1": 0.0046, "5-2": 0.0027, "5-3": 0.0011, "6-0": 0.0009, "6-1": 0.0011, "6-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4283, "draw": 0.2606, "away_win": 0.3111 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4948, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5052, "btts_yes": 0.5365, "btts_no": 0.4635, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3012, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2339 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.85, "MCR": 6.89, "ATR": 6.91, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.85, "ATR": 7.18, "GK": 6.82 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Málaga vs Racing Club. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 4 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Málaga 4W-3D-3L vs Racing Club over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Pablo Martínez", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-1-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Izan Merino vs André Almeida will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.38, Away: 0.26. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel." }, "confidence": 0.65, "home_lambda": 1.453, "away_lambda": 1.2, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 1.0071, "away_multiplier": 0.9929 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1239, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4283, "draw": 0.2606, "away_win": 0.3111 }, "favorite": "Málaga", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4283, "fair_spread": 0.253, "fair_total": 2.653, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.453, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Racing Club", "estimate": 1.2, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4948, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5365, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3012, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Racing Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2339, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Pablo Martínez (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.2525, "probability": 0.2231, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Maguette Gueye (Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.1408, "probability": 0.1313, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "David Larrubia (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.3185, "probability": 0.2728, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Iñigo Vicente (Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.2941, "probability": 0.2548, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.653, "expected_total_shots": 19, "expected_total_passes": 947, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.2, "possession_home_pct": 49.9, "possession_away_pct": 50.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Málaga", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4283, "script": "Málaga is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.25 goals and fair total 2.65.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Racing Club must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Málaga lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Málaga chance creation leans on Pablo Martínez against Pablo Ramón in Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Málaga: starters carry the main goal usage through Pablo Martínez; bench watchlist: Chupete, Adrián Niño.", "Racing Club: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Yassir Zabiri, Pablo García, Aarón Martín.", "Assist usage should flow through David Larrubia; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Málaga tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.33 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Racing Club is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Málaga.", "Racing Club wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Málaga": { "formation": "4-1-4-1", "players": { "Alfonso Herrero": { "player_id": 96371, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 180, "market_value": 420000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0148, "rating": 6.9947, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 24, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 46, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.4958, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 11.8702, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9405, "shots_faced": 11.4, "expected_saves": 2.79, "high_pressure_saves": 0.96, "opponent_faced": "Maguette Gueye, Iñigo Vicente", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421087.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.6, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.1132 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421077.0, "match_date": "2026-10-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2657 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421073.0, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -2.0512 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421062.0, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.2149 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.2423 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.2258 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 45, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.3644 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, 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"season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1734 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3276, "combined_rank_score": 1220.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 44.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2397.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9947, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alfonso Herrero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Federico Viñas", "ranking": 3271 }, { "player_name": "Marco Reus", "ranking": 3272 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Bueno", "ranking": 3273 }, { "player_name": "Hany Mukhtar", "ranking": 3274 }, { "player_name": "Aleksey Miranchuk", "ranking": 3275 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tim Iroegbunam", "ranking": 3277 }, { "player_name": "Jaminton Campaz", "ranking": 3278 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Merentiel", "ranking": 3279 }, { "player_name": "Pep Biel", "ranking": 3280 }, { "player_name": "Beñat Prados", "ranking": 3281 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 11, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 11, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9937, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 11 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9764, "goals_prevented": -0.0149, "rating": 6.9947, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.6347, "accurate_pass": 23.7998, "total_long_balls": 16.6818, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9269, "touches": 46.7171, "clearances": 0.9305, "ball_recovery": 8.549, "high_claims": 0.9158, "punches": 0.4989, "aerial_won": 0.1684, "sweeper_actions": 0.3774, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3774, "saves_inside_box": 2.0263, "possession_lost": 11.9455, "duels_won": 0.3304, "duels_lost": 0.1217, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0799, "fouls_drawn": 0.162, "total_own_half_passes": 24.7072, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.1199 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-31", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1801, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-23", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1531, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-18", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1302, "rating": 5.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-09", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1106, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.094, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0799, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0679, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0578, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0491, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0417, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 11.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 22.1199, "accurateLongBalls": 4.9269, "possessionLostCtrl": 11.9455, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.0244, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.294, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.3774 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.976381301879883, "model_output": 2.9764, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], 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"possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": -0.0149, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021315 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.0165 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.015291 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.013108 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.010956 } ], "others_margin": -0.004595 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.994724273681641, "model_output": 6.9947, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": 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} } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9937, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9576, "goals_prevented": -0.0148, "rating": 6.9947, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.4102, "accurate_pass": 23.6499, "total_long_balls": 16.5767, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8959, "touches": 46.4228, "clearances": 0.9246, "ball_recovery": 8.4951, "high_claims": 0.91, "punches": 0.4958, "aerial_won": 0.1673, "sweeper_actions": 0.375, "sweeper_accurate": 0.375, "saves_inside_box": 2.0135, "possession_lost": 11.8702, "duels_won": 0.3283, "duels_lost": 0.1209, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0794, "fouls_drawn": 0.161, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5515, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9805 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 420000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9937, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9576, "goals_prevented": -0.0148, "rating": 6.9947, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.4102, "accurate_pass": 23.6499, "total_long_balls": 16.5767, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8959, "touches": 46.4228, "clearances": 0.9246, "ball_recovery": 8.4951, "high_claims": 0.91, "punches": 0.4958, "aerial_won": 0.1673, "sweeper_actions": 0.375, "sweeper_accurate": 0.375, "saves_inside_box": 2.0135, "possession_lost": 11.8702, "duels_won": 0.3283, "duels_lost": 0.1209, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0794, "fouls_drawn": 0.161, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5515, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9805 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9576, "goals_prevented": -0.0148, "rating": 6.9947, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.4102, "accurate_pass": 23.6499, "total_long_balls": 16.5767, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8959, "touches": 46.4228, "clearances": 0.9246, "ball_recovery": 8.4951, "high_claims": 0.91, "punches": 0.4958, "aerial_won": 0.1673, "sweeper_actions": 0.375, "sweeper_accurate": 0.375, "saves_inside_box": 2.0135, "possession_lost": 11.8702, "duels_won": 0.3283, "duels_lost": 0.1209, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0794, "fouls_drawn": 0.161, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5515, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9805, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9405, "shots_faced": 8.9, "expected_saves": 2.17, "high_pressure_saves": 0.75, "opponent_faced": "Maguette Gueye, Iñigo Vicente", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Maguette Gueye, Iñigo Vicente", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.9405 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9576, "goals_prevented": -0.0148, "rating": 6.9947, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.4102, "accurate_pass": 23.6499, "total_long_balls": 16.5767, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8959, "touches": 46.4228, "clearances": 0.9246, "ball_recovery": 8.4951, "high_claims": 0.91, "punches": 0.4958, "aerial_won": 0.1673, "sweeper_actions": 0.375, "sweeper_accurate": 0.375, "saves_inside_box": 2.0135, "possession_lost": 11.8702, "duels_won": 0.3283, "duels_lost": 0.1209, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0794, "fouls_drawn": 0.161, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5515, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9805, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9405, "shots_faced": 8.9, "expected_saves": 2.17, "high_pressure_saves": 0.75, "opponent_faced": "Maguette Gueye, Iñigo Vicente", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 0.5938, xG scale 2.4468, xA scale 1.8415, team xA 1.16 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9576, "goals_prevented": -0.0148, "rating": 6.9947, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.4102, "accurate_pass": 23.6499, "total_long_balls": 16.5767, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8959, "touches": 46.4228, "clearances": 0.9246, "ball_recovery": 8.4951, "high_claims": 0.91, "punches": 0.4958, "aerial_won": 0.1673, "sweeper_actions": 0.375, "sweeper_accurate": 0.375, "saves_inside_box": 2.0135, "possession_lost": 11.8702, "duels_won": 0.3283, "duels_lost": 0.1209, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0794, "fouls_drawn": 0.161, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5515, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9805, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9405, "shots_faced": 11.4, "expected_saves": 2.79, "high_pressure_saves": 0.96, "opponent_faced": "Maguette Gueye, Iñigo Vicente", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.453, "squad_xg_sum": 0.5938, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6312, "team_expected_assists": 1.1624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.4468, "xa_scale": 1.8415, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 8.9, "after": 11.4 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.17, "after": 2.79 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.75, "after": 0.96 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9576, "goals_prevented": -0.0148, "rating": 6.9947, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.4102, "accurate_pass": 23.6499, "total_long_balls": 16.5767, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8959, "touches": 46.4228, "clearances": 0.9246, "ball_recovery": 8.4951, "high_claims": 0.91, "punches": 0.4958, "aerial_won": 0.1673, "sweeper_actions": 0.375, "sweeper_accurate": 0.375, "saves_inside_box": 2.0135, "possession_lost": 11.8702, "duels_won": 0.3283, "duels_lost": 0.1209, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0794, "fouls_drawn": 0.161, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5515, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9805, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.9405, "shots_faced": 11.4, "expected_saves": 2.79, "high_pressure_saves": 0.96, "opponent_faced": "Maguette Gueye, Iñigo Vicente", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9932, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8357, "tackles": 1.1547, "tackles_won": 0.7056, "clearances": 4.7509, "aerial_won": 1.4776, "total_shots": 0.494, "rating": 6.8585, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.9734, "accurate_pass": 53.0024, "duels_won": 3.168, "total_long_balls": 4.3231, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6173, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9155, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0869, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.7158, "possession_lost": 5.5078, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4053, "aerial_lost": 1.3458, "total_contest": 0.2716, "won_contest": 0.2716, "ball_recovery": 3.4277, "challenges_lost": 0.4433, "fouls": 0.6162, "fouls_drawn": 0.3276, "blocks": 0.9753, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "shots_on_target": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0044, "ball_carries": 20.01, "total_progression": 83.6295, "progressive_carries": 1.1234, "key_pass": 0.0506, "shots_off_target": 0.4241 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1000000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9932, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8357, "tackles": 1.1547, "tackles_won": 0.7056, "clearances": 4.7509, "aerial_won": 1.4776, "total_shots": 0.494, "rating": 6.8585, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.9734, "accurate_pass": 53.0024, "duels_won": 3.168, "total_long_balls": 4.3231, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6173, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9155, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0869, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.7158, "possession_lost": 5.5078, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4053, "aerial_lost": 1.3458, "total_contest": 0.2716, "won_contest": 0.2716, "ball_recovery": 3.4277, "challenges_lost": 0.4433, "fouls": 0.6162, "fouls_drawn": 0.3276, "blocks": 0.9753, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "shots_on_target": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0044, "ball_carries": 20.01, "total_progression": 83.6295, "progressive_carries": 1.1234, "key_pass": 0.0506, "shots_off_target": 0.4241 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8357, "tackles": 1.1547, "tackles_won": 0.7056, "clearances": 4.7509, "aerial_won": 1.4776, "total_shots": 0.494, "rating": 6.8585, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.9734, "accurate_pass": 53.0024, "duels_won": 3.168, "total_long_balls": 4.3231, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6173, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9155, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0869, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.7158, "possession_lost": 5.5078, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4053, "aerial_lost": 1.3458, "total_contest": 0.2716, "won_contest": 0.2716, "ball_recovery": 3.4277, "challenges_lost": 0.4433, "fouls": 0.6162, "fouls_drawn": 0.3276, "blocks": 0.9753, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "shots_on_target": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0044, "ball_carries": 20.01, "total_progression": 83.6295, "progressive_carries": 1.1234, "key_pass": 0.0506, "shots_off_target": 0.4241, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Vicente", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Vicente", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8357, "tackles": 1.1547, "tackles_won": 0.7056, "clearances": 4.7509, "aerial_won": 1.4776, "total_shots": 0.494, "rating": 6.8585, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.9734, "accurate_pass": 53.0024, "duels_won": 3.168, "total_long_balls": 4.3231, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6173, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9155, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0869, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.7158, "possession_lost": 5.5078, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4053, "aerial_lost": 1.3458, "total_contest": 0.2716, "won_contest": 0.2716, "ball_recovery": 3.4277, "challenges_lost": 0.4433, "fouls": 0.6162, "fouls_drawn": 0.3276, "blocks": 0.9753, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "shots_on_target": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0044, "ball_carries": 20.01, "total_progression": 83.6295, "progressive_carries": 1.1234, "key_pass": 0.0506, "shots_off_target": 0.4241, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Vicente", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 0.5938, xG scale 2.4468, xA scale 1.8415, team xA 1.16 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8357, "tackles": 1.1547, "tackles_won": 0.7056, "clearances": 4.7509, "aerial_won": 1.4776, "total_shots": 0.494, "rating": 6.8585, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.9734, "accurate_pass": 53.0024, "duels_won": 3.168, "total_long_balls": 4.3231, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6173, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9155, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0869, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.7158, "possession_lost": 5.5078, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4053, "aerial_lost": 1.3458, "total_contest": 0.2716, "won_contest": 0.2716, "ball_recovery": 3.4277, "challenges_lost": 0.4433, "fouls": 0.6162, "fouls_drawn": 0.3276, "blocks": 0.9753, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0423, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "shots_on_target": 0.0699, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0108, "ball_carries": 20.01, "total_progression": 83.6295, "progressive_carries": 1.1234, "key_pass": 0.0506, "shots_off_target": 0.4241, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Vicente", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8432 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.453, "squad_xg_sum": 0.5938, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6312, "team_expected_assists": 1.1624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.4468, "xa_scale": 1.8415, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0173, "after": 0.0423 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0093, "after": 0.0171 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0108, "ball_carries": 20.01, "total_progression": 83.6295, "progressive_carries": 1.1234, "key_pass": 0.0506, "shots_off_target": 0.4241, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Vicente", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8432, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 7921, "fifa_rank": 11802.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 65.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8357, "tackles": 1.1547, "tackles_won": 0.7056, "clearances": 4.7509, "aerial_won": 1.4776, "total_shots": 0.494, "rating": 6.8585, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.9734, "accurate_pass": 53.0024, "duels_won": 3.168, "total_long_balls": 4.3231, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6173, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9155, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0869, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.7158, "possession_lost": 5.5078, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4053, "aerial_lost": 1.3458, "total_contest": 0.2716, "won_contest": 0.2716, "ball_recovery": 3.4277, "challenges_lost": 0.4433, "fouls": 0.6162, 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"goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0338, "squad_weight_total": 1.608, "weight_share": 0.021, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pablo Martínez", "weight": 0.3138, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3138, "runner_up": "Chupete", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2527 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8357, "tackles": 1.1547, "tackles_won": 0.7056, "clearances": 4.7509, "aerial_won": 1.4776, "total_shots": 0.494, "rating": 6.8585, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 57.9734, "accurate_pass": 53.0024, "duels_won": 3.168, "total_long_balls": 4.3231, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6173, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9155, 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.017, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8432, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.017, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0144, "squad_weight_total": 1.0769, "weight_share": 0.0134, "creation_factor": 0.8432, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "David Larrubia", "weight": 0.2548, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2548, "runner_up": "Dani Lorenzo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1441, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Pablo Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Rafa Garrido": { "player_id": 1595666, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 31, "height": 170, "market_value": 1400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7971, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 73, "possession_lost": 7.1509, "dispossessed": 0.07, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0854, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 87, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, 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"accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0442, "total": 6.7971, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.028728 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023311 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014483 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.014228 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009191 } ], "others_margin": -0.044304 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9937, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.055, "tackles": 1.2858, "tackles_won": 0.7874, "clearances": 2.5875, "aerial_won": 0.7539, "total_shots": 0.4471, "rating": 6.7971, "minutes": 88.65, "total_pass": 52.5074, "accurate_pass": 49.057, "duels_won": 3.8212, "total_long_balls": 1.9994, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2502, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.2742, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7889, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7828, "crosses_total": 1.4322, "crosses_accurate": 0.114, "touches": 73.4113, "possession_lost": 7.1509, "dispossessed": 0.07, "duels_lost": 2.3872, "aerial_lost": 0.4756, "total_contest": 1.3481, "won_contest": 0.7964, "ball_recovery": 5.1742, "challenges_lost": 0.6989, "fouls": 0.5911, "fouls_drawn": 1.6712, "blocks": 0.6669, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.114, "assist_rate": 0.114, "expected_goals": 0.0088, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "shots_on_target": 0.1856, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 18.9332, "total_progression": 87.2877, "progressive_carries": 1.7331, "key_pass": 0.4589, "shots_off_target": 0.2614 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9937, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.055, "tackles": 1.2858, "tackles_won": 0.7874, "clearances": 2.5875, "aerial_won": 0.7539, "total_shots": 0.4471, "rating": 6.7971, "minutes": 88.65, "total_pass": 52.5074, "accurate_pass": 49.057, "duels_won": 3.8212, "total_long_balls": 1.9994, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2502, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.2742, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7889, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7828, "crosses_total": 1.4322, "crosses_accurate": 0.114, "touches": 73.4113, "possession_lost": 7.1509, "dispossessed": 0.07, "duels_lost": 2.3872, "aerial_lost": 0.4756, "total_contest": 1.3481, "won_contest": 0.7964, "ball_recovery": 5.1742, "challenges_lost": 0.6989, "fouls": 0.5911, "fouls_drawn": 1.6712, "blocks": 0.6669, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.114, "assist_rate": 0.114, "expected_goals": 0.0088, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "shots_on_target": 0.1856, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 18.9332, "total_progression": 87.2877, "progressive_carries": 1.7331, "key_pass": 0.4589, "shots_off_target": 0.2614 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.055, "tackles": 1.2858, "tackles_won": 0.7874, "clearances": 2.5875, "aerial_won": 0.7539, "total_shots": 0.4471, "rating": 6.7971, "minutes": 88.65, "total_pass": 52.5074, "accurate_pass": 49.057, "duels_won": 3.8212, "total_long_balls": 1.9994, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2502, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.2742, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7889, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7828, "crosses_total": 1.4322, "crosses_accurate": 0.114, "touches": 73.4113, "possession_lost": 7.1509, "dispossessed": 0.07, "duels_lost": 2.3872, "aerial_lost": 0.4756, "total_contest": 1.3481, "won_contest": 0.7964, "ball_recovery": 5.1742, "challenges_lost": 0.6989, "fouls": 0.5911, "fouls_drawn": 1.6712, "blocks": 0.6669, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.114, "assist_rate": 0.114, "expected_goals": 0.0088, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "shots_on_target": 0.1856, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 18.9332, "total_progression": 87.2877, "progressive_carries": 1.7331, "key_pass": 0.4589, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.484, "opponent_faced": "André Almeida", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "André Almeida", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.055, "tackles": 1.2858, "tackles_won": 0.7874, "clearances": 2.5875, "aerial_won": 0.7539, "total_shots": 0.4471, "rating": 6.7971, "minutes": 88.65, "total_pass": 52.5074, "accurate_pass": 49.057, "duels_won": 3.8212, "total_long_balls": 1.9994, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2502, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.2742, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7889, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7828, "crosses_total": 1.4322, "crosses_accurate": 0.114, "touches": 73.4113, "possession_lost": 7.1509, "dispossessed": 0.07, "duels_lost": 2.3872, "aerial_lost": 0.4756, "total_contest": 1.3481, "won_contest": 0.7964, "ball_recovery": 5.1742, "challenges_lost": 0.6989, "fouls": 0.5911, "fouls_drawn": 1.6712, "blocks": 0.6669, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0088, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "shots_on_target": 0.1856, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 18.9332, "total_progression": 87.2877, "progressive_carries": 1.7331, "key_pass": 0.4589, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.484, "opponent_faced": "André Almeida", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 0.5938, xG scale 2.4468, xA scale 1.8415, team xA 1.16 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.055, "tackles": 1.2858, "tackles_won": 0.7874, "clearances": 2.5875, "aerial_won": 0.7539, "total_shots": 0.4471, "rating": 6.7971, "minutes": 88.65, "total_pass": 52.5074, "accurate_pass": 49.057, "duels_won": 3.8212, "total_long_balls": 1.9994, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2502, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.2742, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7889, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7828, "crosses_total": 1.4322, "crosses_accurate": 0.114, "touches": 73.4113, "possession_lost": 7.1509, "dispossessed": 0.07, "duels_lost": 2.3872, "aerial_lost": 0.4756, "total_contest": 1.3481, "won_contest": 0.7964, "ball_recovery": 5.1742, "challenges_lost": 0.6989, "fouls": 0.5911, "fouls_drawn": 1.6712, "blocks": 0.6669, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1856, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0854, "ball_carries": 18.9332, "total_progression": 87.2877, "progressive_carries": 1.7331, "key_pass": 0.4589, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.484, "opponent_faced": "André Almeida", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8503, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.453, "squad_xg_sum": 0.5938, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6312, "team_expected_assists": 1.1624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.4468, "xa_scale": 1.8415, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0088, "after": 0.0215 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0224, "after": 0.0412 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.055, "tackles": 1.2858, "tackles_won": 0.7874, "clearances": 2.5875, "aerial_won": 0.7539, "total_shots": 0.4471, "rating": 6.7971, "minutes": 88.65, "total_pass": 52.5074, "accurate_pass": 49.057, "duels_won": 3.8212, "total_long_balls": 1.9994, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2502, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.2742, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7889, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7828, "crosses_total": 1.4322, "crosses_accurate": 0.114, "touches": 73.4113, "possession_lost": 7.1509, "dispossessed": 0.07, "duels_lost": 2.3872, "aerial_lost": 0.4756, "total_contest": 1.3481, "won_contest": 0.7964, "ball_recovery": 5.1742, "challenges_lost": 0.6989, "fouls": 0.5911, "fouls_drawn": 1.6712, "blocks": 0.6669, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1856, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0854, "ball_carries": 18.9332, "total_progression": 87.2877, "progressive_carries": 1.7331, "key_pass": 0.4589, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.484, "opponent_faced": "André Almeida", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8503, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1375, "fifa_rank": 848.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.055, "tackles": 1.2858, "tackles_won": 0.7874, "clearances": 2.5875, "aerial_won": 0.7539, "total_shots": 0.4471, "rating": 6.7971, "minutes": 88.65, "total_pass": 52.5074, "accurate_pass": 49.057, "duels_won": 3.8212, "total_long_balls": 1.9994, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2502, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.2742, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7889, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7828, "crosses_total": 1.4322, "crosses_accurate": 0.114, "touches": 73.4113, "possession_lost": 7.1509, "dispossessed": 0.07, "duels_lost": 2.3872, "aerial_lost": 0.4756, "total_contest": 1.3481, "won_contest": 0.7964, "ball_recovery": 5.1742, "challenges_lost": 0.6989, "fouls": 0.5911, "fouls_drawn": 1.6712, "blocks": 0.6669, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1856, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0854, "ball_carries": 18.9332, "total_progression": 87.2877, "progressive_carries": 1.7331, "key_pass": 0.4589, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.484, "opponent_faced": "André Almeida", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0213, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8503, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0213, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0183, "squad_weight_total": 1.608, "weight_share": 0.0114, "finishing_factor": 0.8503, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pablo Martínez", "weight": 0.3138, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3138, "runner_up": "Chupete", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2527 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.055, "tackles": 1.2858, "tackles_won": 0.7874, "clearances": 2.5875, "aerial_won": 0.7539, "total_shots": 0.4471, "rating": 6.7971, "minutes": 88.65, "total_pass": 52.5074, "accurate_pass": 49.057, "duels_won": 3.8212, "total_long_balls": 1.9994, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2502, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.2742, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7889, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7828, "crosses_total": 1.4322, "crosses_accurate": 0.114, "touches": 73.4113, "possession_lost": 7.1509, "dispossessed": 0.07, "duels_lost": 2.3872, "aerial_lost": 0.4756, "total_contest": 1.3481, "won_contest": 0.7964, "ball_recovery": 5.1742, "challenges_lost": 0.6989, "fouls": 0.5911, "fouls_drawn": 1.6712, "blocks": 0.6669, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1856, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0854, "ball_carries": 18.9332, "total_progression": 87.2877, "progressive_carries": 1.7331, "key_pass": 0.4589, "shots_off_target": 0.2614, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.484, "opponent_faced": "André Almeida", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank 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"touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0521 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0488 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": 0.0578, "total": 6.9495, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.052056 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.048848 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.024725 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019016 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01366 } ], "others_margin": 0.05781 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2822, "tackles": 1.3694, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 5.3122, "aerial_won": 1.3951, "total_shots": 0.3625, "rating": 6.9495, "minutes": 83.74, "total_pass": 59.8713, "accurate_pass": 54.9926, "duels_won": 3.0653, "total_long_balls": 5.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 46.5004, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.8514, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3708, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1411, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6232, "possession_lost": 5.2673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9864, "aerial_lost": 0.3166, "total_contest": 0.2971, "won_contest": 0.2971, "ball_recovery": 2.6753, "challenges_lost": 0.9201, "fouls": 0.9236, "fouls_drawn": 0.55, "blocks": 0.4677, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.6023, "total_progression": 66.874, "progressive_carries": 0.7867, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3625 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 365000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2822, "tackles": 1.3694, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 5.3122, "aerial_won": 1.3951, "total_shots": 0.3625, "rating": 6.9495, "minutes": 83.74, "total_pass": 59.8713, "accurate_pass": 54.9926, "duels_won": 3.0653, "total_long_balls": 5.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 46.5004, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.8514, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3708, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1411, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6232, "possession_lost": 5.2673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9864, "aerial_lost": 0.3166, "total_contest": 0.2971, "won_contest": 0.2971, "ball_recovery": 2.6753, "challenges_lost": 0.9201, "fouls": 0.9236, "fouls_drawn": 0.55, "blocks": 0.4677, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.6023, "total_progression": 66.874, "progressive_carries": 0.7867, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3625 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2822, "tackles": 1.3694, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 5.3122, "aerial_won": 1.3951, "total_shots": 0.3625, "rating": 6.9495, "minutes": 83.74, "total_pass": 59.8713, "accurate_pass": 54.9926, "duels_won": 3.0653, "total_long_balls": 5.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 46.5004, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.8514, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3708, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1411, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6232, "possession_lost": 5.2673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9864, "aerial_lost": 0.3166, "total_contest": 0.2971, "won_contest": 0.2971, "ball_recovery": 2.6753, "challenges_lost": 0.9201, "fouls": 0.9236, "fouls_drawn": 0.55, "blocks": 0.4677, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.6023, "total_progression": 66.874, "progressive_carries": 0.7867, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3625, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.536, "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2822, "tackles": 1.3694, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 5.3122, "aerial_won": 1.3951, "total_shots": 0.3625, "rating": 6.9495, "minutes": 83.74, "total_pass": 59.8713, "accurate_pass": 54.9926, "duels_won": 3.0653, "total_long_balls": 5.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 46.5004, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.8514, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3708, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1411, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6232, "possession_lost": 5.2673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9864, "aerial_lost": 0.3166, "total_contest": 0.2971, "won_contest": 0.2971, "ball_recovery": 2.6753, "challenges_lost": 0.9201, "fouls": 0.9236, "fouls_drawn": 0.55, "blocks": 0.4677, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.6023, "total_progression": 66.874, "progressive_carries": 0.7867, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3625, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.536, "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 0.5938, xG scale 2.4468, xA scale 1.8415, team xA 1.16 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2822, "tackles": 1.3694, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 5.3122, "aerial_won": 1.3951, "total_shots": 0.3625, "rating": 6.9495, "minutes": 83.74, "total_pass": 59.8713, "accurate_pass": 54.9926, "duels_won": 3.0653, "total_long_balls": 5.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 46.5004, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.8514, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3708, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1411, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6232, "possession_lost": 5.2673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9864, "aerial_lost": 0.3166, "total_contest": 0.2971, "won_contest": 0.2971, "ball_recovery": 2.6753, "challenges_lost": 0.9201, "fouls": 0.9236, "fouls_drawn": 0.55, "blocks": 0.4677, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.6023, "total_progression": 66.874, "progressive_carries": 0.7867, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3625, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.536, "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9058 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.453, "squad_xg_sum": 0.5938, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6312, "team_expected_assists": 1.1624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.4468, "xa_scale": 1.8415, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2822, "tackles": 1.3694, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 5.3122, "aerial_won": 1.3951, "total_shots": 0.3625, "rating": 6.9495, "minutes": 83.74, "total_pass": 59.8713, "accurate_pass": 54.9926, "duels_won": 3.0653, "total_long_balls": 5.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 46.5004, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.8514, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3708, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1411, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6232, "possession_lost": 5.2673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9864, "aerial_lost": 0.3166, "total_contest": 0.2971, "won_contest": 0.2971, "ball_recovery": 2.6753, "challenges_lost": 0.9201, "fouls": 0.9236, "fouls_drawn": 0.55, "blocks": 0.4677, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2822, "tackles": 1.3694, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 5.3122, "aerial_won": 1.3951, "total_shots": 0.3625, "rating": 6.9495, "minutes": 83.74, "total_pass": 59.8713, "accurate_pass": 54.9926, "duels_won": 3.0653, "total_long_balls": 5.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 46.5004, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.8514, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3708, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1411, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.6232, "possession_lost": 5.2673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9864, "aerial_lost": 0.3166, "total_contest": 0.2971, "won_contest": 0.2971, "ball_recovery": 2.6753, "challenges_lost": 0.9201, "fouls": 0.9236, "fouls_drawn": 0.55, "blocks": 0.4677, 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"squad_weight_total": 1.608, "weight_share": 0.0006, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pablo Martínez", "weight": 0.3138, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3138, "runner_up": "Chupete", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2527 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2822, "tackles": 1.3694, "tackles_won": 0.8658, "clearances": 5.3122, "aerial_won": 1.3951, "total_shots": 0.3625, "rating": 6.9495, "minutes": 83.74, "total_pass": 59.8713, "accurate_pass": 54.9926, "duels_won": 3.0653, "total_long_balls": 5.3364, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7741, "total_own_half_passes": 46.5004, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.8514, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3708, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1411, "crosses_total": 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true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.147525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125438 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059619 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.039737 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.030079 } ], "others_margin": -0.012767 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.38305190205574036, "model_output": 0.3831, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0709 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0529 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0613, "total": 0.3831, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.070882 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052948 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022662 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.014142 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010238 } ], "others_margin": -0.061504 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.785333156585693, "model_output": 6.7853, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0066 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 6.7853, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014734 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011368 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008016 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.007152 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.006579 } ], "others_margin": 0.00694 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9972, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0067, "tackles": 1.3519, "tackles_won": 0.8067, "clearances": 4.7135, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.3821, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 84.51, "total_pass": 48.3752, "accurate_pass": 43.725, "duels_won": 3.2467, "total_long_balls": 4.6844, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1334, "total_own_half_passes": 33.5311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.0415, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6836, "crosses_total": 0.1816, "crosses_accurate": 0.1094, "touches": 60.6232, "possession_lost": 5.7357, "dispossessed": 0.1094, "duels_lost": 2.9179, "aerial_lost": 1.2463, "total_contest": 0.1234, "won_contest": 0.0155, "ball_recovery": 3.3138, "challenges_lost": 0.5433, "fouls": 0.911, "fouls_drawn": 0.6448, "blocks": 1.1366, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "shots_on_target": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.0207, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14.6931, "total_progression": 54.8765, "progressive_carries": 0.2511, "key_pass": 0.0468, "shots_off_target": 0.3708 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9972, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0067, "tackles": 1.3519, "tackles_won": 0.8067, "clearances": 4.7135, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.3821, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 84.51, "total_pass": 48.3752, "accurate_pass": 43.725, "duels_won": 3.2467, "total_long_balls": 4.6844, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1334, "total_own_half_passes": 33.5311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.0415, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6836, "crosses_total": 0.1816, "crosses_accurate": 0.1094, "touches": 60.6232, "possession_lost": 5.7357, "dispossessed": 0.1094, "duels_lost": 2.9179, "aerial_lost": 1.2463, "total_contest": 0.1234, "won_contest": 0.0155, "ball_recovery": 3.3138, "challenges_lost": 0.5433, "fouls": 0.911, "fouls_drawn": 0.6448, "blocks": 1.1366, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "shots_on_target": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.0207, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14.6931, "total_progression": 54.8765, "progressive_carries": 0.2511, "key_pass": 0.0468, "shots_off_target": 0.3708 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0067, "tackles": 1.3519, "tackles_won": 0.8067, "clearances": 4.7135, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.3821, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 84.51, "total_pass": 48.3752, "accurate_pass": 43.725, "duels_won": 3.2467, "total_long_balls": 4.6844, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1334, "total_own_half_passes": 33.5311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.0415, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6836, "crosses_total": 0.1816, "crosses_accurate": 0.1094, "touches": 60.6232, "possession_lost": 5.7357, "dispossessed": 0.1094, "duels_lost": 2.9179, "aerial_lost": 1.2463, "total_contest": 0.1234, "won_contest": 0.0155, "ball_recovery": 3.3138, "challenges_lost": 0.5433, "fouls": 0.911, "fouls_drawn": 0.6448, "blocks": 1.1366, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "shots_on_target": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.0207, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14.6931, "total_progression": 54.8765, "progressive_carries": 0.2511, "key_pass": 0.0468, "shots_off_target": 0.3708, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Vicente", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Vicente", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0067, "tackles": 1.3519, "tackles_won": 0.8067, "clearances": 4.7135, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.3821, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 84.51, "total_pass": 48.3752, "accurate_pass": 43.725, "duels_won": 3.2467, "total_long_balls": 4.6844, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1334, "total_own_half_passes": 33.5311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.0415, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6836, "crosses_total": 0.1816, "crosses_accurate": 0.1094, "touches": 60.6232, "possession_lost": 5.7357, "dispossessed": 0.1094, "duels_lost": 2.9179, "aerial_lost": 1.2463, "total_contest": 0.1234, "won_contest": 0.0155, "ball_recovery": 3.3138, "challenges_lost": 0.5433, "fouls": 0.911, "fouls_drawn": 0.6448, "blocks": 1.1366, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "shots_on_target": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.0207, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 14.6931, "total_progression": 54.8765, "progressive_carries": 0.2511, "key_pass": 0.0468, "shots_off_target": 0.3708, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Vicente", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 0.5938, xG scale 2.4468, xA scale 1.8415, team xA 1.16 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0067, "tackles": 1.3519, "tackles_won": 0.8067, "clearances": 4.7135, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.3821, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 84.51, "total_pass": 48.3752, "accurate_pass": 43.725, "duels_won": 3.2467, "total_long_balls": 4.6844, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1334, "total_own_half_passes": 33.5311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.0415, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6836, "crosses_total": 0.1816, "crosses_accurate": 0.1094, "touches": 60.6232, "possession_lost": 5.7357, "dispossessed": 0.1094, "duels_lost": 2.9179, "aerial_lost": 1.2463, "total_contest": 0.1234, "won_contest": 0.0155, "ball_recovery": 3.3138, "challenges_lost": 0.5433, "fouls": 0.911, "fouls_drawn": 0.6448, "blocks": 1.1366, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "shots_on_target": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.0207, "xgot": 0.0005, "ball_carries": 14.6931, "total_progression": 54.8765, "progressive_carries": 0.2511, "key_pass": 0.0468, "shots_off_target": 0.3708, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Vicente", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8251 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.453, "squad_xg_sum": 0.5938, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6312, "team_expected_assists": 1.1624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.4468, "xa_scale": 1.8415, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0297, "after": 0.0727 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0106, "after": 0.0195 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0067, "tackles": 1.3519, "tackles_won": 0.8067, "clearances": 4.7135, "aerial_won": 1.5014, "total_shots": 0.3821, "rating": 6.7853, "minutes": 84.51, "total_pass": 48.3752, "accurate_pass": 43.725, "duels_won": 3.2467, "total_long_balls": 4.6844, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1334, "total_own_half_passes": 33.5311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.0415, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6836, "crosses_total": 0.1816, "crosses_accurate": 0.1094, "touches": 60.6232, "possession_lost": 5.7357, "dispossessed": 0.1094, "duels_lost": 2.9179, "aerial_lost": 1.2463, "total_contest": 0.1234, "won_contest": 0.0155, "ball_recovery": 3.3138, "challenges_lost": 0.5433, "fouls": 0.911, "fouls_drawn": 0.6448, "blocks": 1.1366, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "shots_on_target": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.0207, "xgot": 0.0005, "ball_carries": 14.6931, "total_progression": 54.8765, "progressive_carries": 0.2511, "key_pass": 0.0468, "shots_off_target": 0.3708, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Vicente", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8251, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1185, 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0.5433, "fouls": 0.911, "fouls_drawn": 0.6448, "blocks": 1.1366, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "shots_on_target": 0.0113, "big_chances_created": 0.0207, "xgot": 0.0005, "ball_carries": 14.6931, "total_progression": 54.8765, "progressive_carries": 0.2511, "key_pass": 0.0468, "shots_off_target": 0.3708, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Vicente", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0701, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8251, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 0.5938, xG scale 2.4468, xA scale 1.8415, team xA 1.16 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7849, "expected_assists": 0.1226, "assist_rate": 0.0823, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.16, "goal_rate": 0.0637, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2459, "total_shots": 0.7902, "rating": 6.8764, "minutes": 79.7, "total_pass": 40.5329, "accurate_pass": 34.6611, "duels_won": 3.8579, "total_long_balls": 1.6825, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9251, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5337, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1274, "crosses_total": 0.5857, "crosses_accurate": 0.1939, "touches": 53.2756, "possession_lost": 9.0532, 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"contribution": 0.0632 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.043 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0402 } ], "others": 0.0287, "total": 1.6383, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.311978 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.166294 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.063216 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.043005 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.040224 } ], "others_margin": 0.028659 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.911579132080078, "model_output": 6.9116, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0485 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8064, "expected_assists": 0.1702, "assists": 0.1299, "assist_rate": 0.1299, "expected_goals": 0.1053, "goals": 0.1433, "goal_rate": 0.1433, "shots_on_target": 0.4618, "total_shots": 1.6341, "rating": 6.9116, "minutes": 82.14, "total_pass": 32.3608, "accurate_pass": 27.2503, "duels_won": 2.2222, "total_long_balls": 3.3167, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9735, "total_own_half_passes": 13.931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9117, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4299, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3385, "crosses_total": 6.0014, "crosses_accurate": 2.193, "touches": 47.6133, "possession_lost": 10.874, "dispossessed": 0.4034, "duels_lost": 2.65, "aerial_won": 0.3454, "aerial_lost": 0.2871, "interceptions": 0.6744, "tackles_won": 0.5278, "tackles": 0.8079, "clearances": 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6.9278, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0916 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0387 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0185 } ], "others": -0.0331, "total": 6.9278, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.091643 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.038737 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034861 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026566 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018503 } ], "others_margin": -0.033153 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.9302, "total_contest": 2.9203, "won_contest": 1.8429, "challenges_lost": 1.0339, "fouls": 1.0812, "fouls_drawn": 1.2563, "blocks": 0.0773, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.104, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.5978, "total_progression": 102.0273, "progressive_carries": 3.0216, "shots_off_target": 0.4473 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2300000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9932, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0122, "expected_assists": 0.0804, "assists": 0.0769, "assist_rate": 0.0769, "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "shots_on_target": 0.2422, "total_shots": 0.6896, "rating": 6.9278, "minutes": 82.37, "total_pass": 45.0174, "accurate_pass": 40.6484, "duels_won": 5.2907, "total_long_balls": 2.9485, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9948, quality 0.460)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "assists": 0.0492, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "expected_goals": 0.0348, "goals": 0.0576, "goal_rate": 0.0576, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.4362, "rating": 6.8178, "minutes": 72.61, "total_pass": 42.6672, "accurate_pass": 39.2722, "duels_won": 0.5516, "total_long_balls": 4.2719, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6695, "total_own_half_passes": 25.146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1494, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.9034, "possession_lost": 4.4683, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8754, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.125, "interceptions": 0.3597, "tackles_won": 0.2722, "tackles": 0.3785, "clearances": 1.3335, 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2.6695, "total_own_half_passes": 25.146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1494, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.9034, "possession_lost": 4.4683, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8754, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.125, "interceptions": 0.3597, "tackles_won": 0.2722, "tackles": 0.3785, "clearances": 1.3335, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 0.9024, "fouls_drawn": 0.1731, "blocks": 0.1063, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0638, "total_progression": 29.0309, "progressive_carries": 0.1471, "shots_off_target": 0.3087 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "assists": 0.0492, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.4445, "rating": 6.8178, "minutes": 72.61, "total_pass": 42.6672, "accurate_pass": 39.2722, "duels_won": 0.5516, "total_long_balls": 4.2719, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6695, "total_own_half_passes": 25.146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1494, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.9034, "possession_lost": 4.4683, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8754, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.125, "interceptions": 0.3597, "tackles_won": 0.2722, "tackles": 0.3785, "clearances": 1.3335, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 0.9024, "fouls_drawn": 0.1731, "blocks": 0.1063, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0638, "total_progression": 29.0309, "progressive_carries": 0.1471, "shots_off_target": 0.3146, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0191, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.463, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matteo Prati", "opponent_faced": "Matteo Prati", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Matteo Prati", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.463, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0191, "skill_edge": -0.003, "height_edge": 0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.4663, "defender_skill": 0.473, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Matteo Prati", "market_value": 5000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.473 } ], "xg_override": 0.0355 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4362, "after": 0.4445 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3087, "after": 0.3146 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.4445, "rating": 6.8178, "minutes": 72.61, "total_pass": 42.6672, "accurate_pass": 39.2722, "duels_won": 0.5516, "total_long_balls": 4.2719, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6695, "total_own_half_passes": 25.146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1494, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, 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"assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 0.5938, xG scale 2.4468, xA scale 1.8415, team xA 1.16 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.0587, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.4445, "rating": 6.8178, "minutes": 72.61, "total_pass": 42.6672, "accurate_pass": 39.2722, "duels_won": 0.5516, "total_long_balls": 4.2719, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6695, "total_own_half_passes": 25.146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1494, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.9034, "possession_lost": 4.4683, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8754, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.125, "interceptions": 0.3597, "tackles_won": 0.2722, "tackles": 0.3785, "clearances": 1.3335, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 0.9024, "fouls_drawn": 0.1731, "blocks": 0.1063, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0638, "total_progression": 29.0309, "progressive_carries": 0.1471, "shots_off_target": 0.3146, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0191, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.463, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matteo Prati", "opponent_faced": "Matteo Prati", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2112 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.453, "squad_xg_sum": 0.5938, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6312, "team_expected_assists": 1.1624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.4468, "xa_scale": 1.8415, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0355, "after": 0.0869 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0319, "after": 0.0587 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5352, "expected_assists": 0.0587, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.4445, "rating": 6.8178, "minutes": 72.61, "total_pass": 42.6672, "accurate_pass": 39.2722, "duels_won": 0.5516, "total_long_balls": 4.2719, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6695, "total_own_half_passes": 25.146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1494, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1228, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.9034, "possession_lost": 4.4683, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8754, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.125, "interceptions": 0.3597, "tackles_won": 0.2722, "tackles": 0.3785, "clearances": 1.3335, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 0.9024, "fouls_drawn": 0.1731, "blocks": 0.1063, 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0.2722, "tackles": 0.3785, "clearances": 1.3335, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 0.9024, "fouls_drawn": 0.1731, "blocks": 0.1063, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0638, "total_progression": 29.0309, "progressive_carries": 0.1471, "shots_off_target": 0.3146, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0191, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.463, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matteo Prati", "opponent_faced": "Matteo Prati", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0832, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2112, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, 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"opponent_defenders": "Matteo Prati", "opponent_faced": "Matteo Prati", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0832, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.057, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2112, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.057, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "provider_weight": 0.0711, "squad_weight_total": 1.0769, "weight_share": 0.066, "creation_factor": 1.2112, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "David Larrubia", "weight": 0.2548, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2548, "runner_up": "Dani Lorenzo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1441, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Pablo Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ramón Enríquez": { "player_id": 990800, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 173, 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"ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0534, "total": 6.9113, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.039702 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.021234 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018215 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.014553 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013555 } ], "others_margin": -0.053328 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9932, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6128, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "assists": 0.0593, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "expected_goals": 0.0313, "goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.052, "shots_on_target": 0.1078, "total_shots": 0.3387, "rating": 6.9113, "minutes": 75.11, "total_pass": 32.6291, "accurate_pass": 29.5806, "duels_won": 1.6227, "total_long_balls": 1.5577, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0169, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7741, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7136, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.867, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.7346, "possession_lost": 3.6178, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5529, "aerial_won": 0.1577, "aerial_lost": 0.1577, "interceptions": 0.2539, "tackles_won": 0.1855, "tackles": 0.1855, "clearances": 0.6047, "total_contest": 0.0699, "won_contest": 0.0699, "challenges_lost": 0.2555, "fouls": 0.1398, "fouls_drawn": 1.2095, "blocks": 0.0823, "big_chances_created": 0.1577, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.2558, "total_progression": 27.6261, "progressive_carries": 0.276, "shots_off_target": 0.2309 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 380000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9932, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6128, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "assists": 0.0593, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "expected_goals": 0.0313, "goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.052, "shots_on_target": 0.1078, "total_shots": 0.3387, "rating": 6.9113, "minutes": 75.11, "total_pass": 32.6291, "accurate_pass": 29.5806, "duels_won": 1.6227, "total_long_balls": 1.5577, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0169, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7741, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7136, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.867, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.7346, "possession_lost": 3.6178, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5529, "aerial_won": 0.1577, "aerial_lost": 0.1577, "interceptions": 0.2539, "tackles_won": 0.1855, "tackles": 0.1855, "clearances": 0.6047, "total_contest": 0.0699, "won_contest": 0.0699, "challenges_lost": 0.2555, "fouls": 0.1398, "fouls_drawn": 1.2095, "blocks": 0.0823, "big_chances_created": 0.1577, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.2558, "total_progression": 27.6261, "progressive_carries": 0.276, "shots_off_target": 0.2309 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6128, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "assists": 0.0593, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goals": 0.048, "goal_rate": 0.048, "shots_on_target": 0.0996, "total_shots": 0.3128, "rating": 6.9113, "minutes": 75.11, "total_pass": 32.6291, "accurate_pass": 29.5806, "duels_won": 1.6227, "total_long_balls": 1.5577, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0169, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7741, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7136, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.867, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.7346, "possession_lost": 3.6178, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5529, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.1577, "interceptions": 0.2539, "tackles_won": 0.1855, "tackles": 0.1855, "clearances": 0.6047, "total_contest": 0.0699, "won_contest": 0.0699, "challenges_lost": 0.2555, "fouls": 0.1398, "fouls_drawn": 1.2095, "blocks": 0.0823, "big_chances_created": 0.1577, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.2558, "total_progression": 27.6261, "progressive_carries": 0.276, "shots_off_target": 0.2132, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9235, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matteo Prati", "opponent_faced": "Matteo Prati", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Matteo Prati", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9235, "skill_edge": -0.016, "height_edge": -0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.473, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Matteo Prati", "market_value": 5000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.473 } ], "xg_override": 0.0289 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1577, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3387, "after": 0.3128 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.2309, "after": 0.2132 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1078, "after": 0.0996 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6128, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.048, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0996, "total_shots": 0.3128, "rating": 6.9113, "minutes": 75.11, "total_pass": 32.6291, "accurate_pass": 29.5806, "duels_won": 1.6227, "total_long_balls": 1.5577, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0169, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7741, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7136, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.867, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.7346, "possession_lost": 3.6178, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5529, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.1577, "interceptions": 0.2539, "tackles_won": 0.1855, "tackles": 0.1855, "clearances": 0.6047, "total_contest": 0.0699, "won_contest": 0.0699, "challenges_lost": 0.2555, "fouls": 0.1398, "fouls_drawn": 1.2095, "blocks": 0.0823, "big_chances_created": 0.1577, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.2558, "total_progression": 27.6261, "progressive_carries": 0.276, "shots_off_target": 0.2132, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9235, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matteo Prati", "opponent_faced": "Matteo Prati", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 0.5938, xG scale 2.4468, xA scale 1.8415, team xA 1.16 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6128, "expected_assists": 0.077, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.048, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0996, "total_shots": 0.3128, "rating": 6.9113, "minutes": 75.11, "total_pass": 32.6291, "accurate_pass": 29.5806, "duels_won": 1.6227, "total_long_balls": 1.5577, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0169, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7741, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7136, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.867, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.7346, "possession_lost": 3.6178, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5529, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.1577, "interceptions": 0.2539, "tackles_won": 0.1855, "tackles": 0.1855, "clearances": 0.6047, "total_contest": 0.0699, "won_contest": 0.0699, "challenges_lost": 0.2555, "fouls": 0.1398, "fouls_drawn": 1.2095, "blocks": 0.0823, "big_chances_created": 0.1577, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.2558, "total_progression": 27.6261, "progressive_carries": 0.276, "shots_off_target": 0.2132, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9235, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matteo Prati", "opponent_faced": "Matteo Prati", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2421, "creation_factor": 1.1906 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.453, "squad_xg_sum": 0.5938, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6312, "team_expected_assists": 1.1624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.4468, "xa_scale": 1.8415, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0289, "after": 0.0707 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0418, "after": 0.077 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 65.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6128, "expected_assists": 0.077, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.048, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0996, "total_shots": 0.3128, "rating": 6.9113, "minutes": 75.11, "total_pass": 32.6291, "accurate_pass": 29.5806, "duels_won": 1.6227, "total_long_balls": 1.5577, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0169, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7741, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7136, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.867, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.7346, "possession_lost": 3.6178, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5529, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.1577, "interceptions": 0.2539, "tackles_won": 0.1855, "tackles": 0.1855, "clearances": 0.6047, "total_contest": 0.0699, "won_contest": 0.0699, "challenges_lost": 0.2555, "fouls": 0.1398, "fouls_drawn": 1.2095, "blocks": 0.0823, "big_chances_created": 0.1577, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.2558, "total_progression": 27.6261, "progressive_carries": 0.276, "shots_off_target": 0.2132, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9235, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matteo Prati", "opponent_faced": "Matteo Prati", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2421, "creation_factor": 1.1906, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 7855, "fifa_rank": 11811.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 65.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6128, "expected_assists": 0.077, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.048, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0996, "total_shots": 0.3128, "rating": 6.9113, "minutes": 75.11, "total_pass": 32.6291, "accurate_pass": 29.5806, "duels_won": 1.6227, "total_long_balls": 1.5577, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0169, "total_own_half_passes": 15.7741, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7136, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.867, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.7346, "possession_lost": 3.6178, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5529, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.1577, "interceptions": 0.2539, "tackles_won": 0.1855, "tackles": 0.1855, "clearances": 0.6047, "total_contest": 0.0699, "won_contest": 0.0699, "challenges_lost": 0.2555, "fouls": 0.1398, "fouls_drawn": 1.2095, "blocks": 0.0823, "big_chances_created": 0.1577, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.2558, "total_progression": 27.6261, "progressive_carries": 0.276, "shots_off_target": 0.2132, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9235, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Matteo Prati", "opponent_faced": "Matteo Prati", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0683, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2421, "creation_factor": 1.1906, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.048, "scorer_weight": 0.0878, "squad_weight_total": 1.608, "weight_share": 0.0546, "finishing_factor": 1.2421, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pablo Martínez", "weight": 0.3138, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3138, "runner_up": "Chupete", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2527 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6128, "expected_assists": 0.077, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.048, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0996, "total_shots": 0.3128, "rating": 6.9113, "minutes": 75.11, "total_pass": 32.6291, "accurate_pass": 29.5806, "duels_won": 1.6227, "total_long_balls": 1.5577, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0169, 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"target": "rating", "predicted": 6.909836769104004, "model_output": 6.9098, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0476 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0377 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0194 } ], "others": 0.0049, "total": 6.9098, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.051304 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047599 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.037696 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.024441 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.019386 } ], "others_margin": 0.004958 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.1729, "key_pass": 1.6561, "rating": 6.9098, "minutes": 81.19, "total_pass": 30.7184, "accurate_pass": 24.9206, "duels_won": 5.0473, "total_long_balls": 1.2574, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0006, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.5186, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4133, "crosses_total": 1.6491, "crosses_accurate": 0.4556, "touches": 53.7831, "possession_lost": 16.3708, "dispossessed": 2.0696, "duels_lost": 7.8448, "aerial_lost": 0.13, "total_contest": 4.9798, "won_contest": 1.8847, "ball_recovery": 4.8897, "challenges_lost": 1.517, "fouls": 1.1304, "fouls_drawn": 0.8451, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6211, "tackles_won": 1.5038, "tackles": 2.2202, "clearances": 0.3701, "blocks": 0.0432, "big_chances_created": 0.152, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0311, "offsides": 0.0508, "ball_carries": 17.5563, "total_progression": 101.3163, "progressive_carries": 3.6049, "shots_off_target": 0.6509, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9017, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, 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"possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0162 } ], "others": 0.0517, "total": 0.3843, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.203725 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.035766 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.020042 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.016943 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.016225 } ], "others_margin": 0.051724 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6510114669799805, "model_output": 6.651, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { 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0.1391, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.7044, "total_progression": 21.0877, "progressive_carries": 0.3032, "key_pass": 0.1123, "shots_off_target": 0.1903, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.306, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.73 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2108, "tackles": 0.4028, "tackles_won": 0.2598, "clearances": 0.3171, "aerial_won": 0.1843, "total_shots": 0.1903, "rating": 6.651, "minutes": 13.73, "total_pass": 7.2227, "accurate_pass": 5.7301, "duels_won": 3.0421, "total_long_balls": 0.3567, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1123, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1961, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.212, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.518, "crosses_total": 0.9352, "crosses_accurate": 0.38, "touches": 17.7406, "possession_lost": 6.0628, "dispossessed": 2.9006, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.181861 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065464 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020269 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.017706 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.015251 } ], "others_margin": -0.023235 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.652987480163574, "model_output": 6.653, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0334, "total": 6.653, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.044744 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018557 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018052 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017897 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.01306 } ], "others_margin": -0.033484 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.428775 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.203185 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056091 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026639 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.025551 } ], "others_margin": 0.013018 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.652568340301514, "model_output": 6.6526, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0691 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0504 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0353 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0299, "total": 6.6526, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.069139 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050386 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035297 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011889 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.008201 } ], "others_margin": -0.029925 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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6.626417636871338, "model_output": 6.6264, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0515 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0359 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.023, "total": 6.6264, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.051474 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035871 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013089 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012243 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0024, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1335, "goals": 0.155, "goal_rate": 0.155, "shots_on_target": 0.4354, "total_shots": 0.8896, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "key_pass": 0.2672, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 21.45, "total_pass": 3.3384, "accurate_pass": 2.2776, "duels_won": 1.284, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.9464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2752, "crosses_total": 0.7208, "crosses_accurate": 0.3312, "touches": 8.177, "possession_lost": 2.5026, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0632, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.3896, "won_contest": 0.3896, "ball_recovery": 0.3896, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.563, "fouls_drawn": 0.2816, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2816, "tackles": 0.2816, "clearances": 1.1106, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5418, "xgot": 0.0301, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8898, "total_progression": 3.8593, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4542 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0024, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.4 to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1597, "goals": 0.1854, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.036, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.66, "projection_minutes": 21.45, "minutes_scale": 1.1963, "appearance_probability": 0.576 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1597, "goals": 0.1854, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.036, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1597, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.036, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 0.5938, xG scale 2.4468, xA scale 1.8415, team xA 1.16 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2251, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1226, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.453, "squad_xg_sum": 0.5938, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6312, "team_expected_assists": 1.1624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.4468, "xa_scale": 1.8415, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.576 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1597, "after": 0.2251 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2251, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1226, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2054, "fifa_rank": 783.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2251, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1863, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1226, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1863, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "scorer_weight": 0.2527, "squad_weight_total": 1.608, "weight_share": 0.1571, "finishing_factor": 1.1226, "appearance_weight": 0.576, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pablo Martínez", "weight": 0.3138, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3138, "runner_up": "Chupete", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2527 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2251, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1863, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0155, "finishing_factor": 1.1226, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0155, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0126, "squad_weight_total": 1.0769, "weight_share": 0.0117, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.576, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "David Larrubia", "weight": 0.2548, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2548, "runner_up": "Dani Lorenzo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1441, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Pablo Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Adrián Niño": { "player_id": 1402927, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 186, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1682, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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6.7782, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0955 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0573 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0195 } ], "others": 0.0073, "total": 6.7782, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.095495 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057336 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.038035 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.022128 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.019529 } ], "others_margin": 0.007336 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1355, "goals": 0.1606, "goal_rate": 0.1606, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.2649, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "key_pass": 0.3099, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 27.87, "total_pass": 4.5842, "accurate_pass": 3.744, "duels_won": 1.2223, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4541, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0002, "possession_lost": 2.0506, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.6844, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.2645, "won_contest": 0.2645, "ball_recovery": 0.2645, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1911, "fouls_drawn": 0.1911, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3112, "tackles": 0.3112, "clearances": 0.2645, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2214, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.2561, "total_progression": 5.6872, "progressive_carries": 0.2645, "shots_off_target": 0.8567 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.9 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.123, "goals": 0.1457, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2009, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 27.87, "minutes_scale": 0.9075, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.123, "goals": 0.1457, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2009, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.123, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2009, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 0.5938, xG scale 2.4468, xA scale 1.8415, team xA 1.16 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1682, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2748, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1312, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.453, "squad_xg_sum": 0.5938, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6312, "team_expected_assists": 1.1624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.4468, "xa_scale": 1.8415, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.123, "after": 0.1682 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1682, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2748, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1312, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4211, "fifa_rank": 4265.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1682, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2748, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1453, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1312, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1453, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "scorer_weight": 0.1903, "squad_weight_total": 1.608, "weight_share": 0.1183, "finishing_factor": 1.1312, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pablo Martínez", "weight": 0.3138, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3138, "runner_up": "Chupete", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2527 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1682, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2748, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1453, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "finishing_factor": 1.1312, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0168, "squad_weight_total": 1.0769, "weight_share": 0.0156, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "David Larrubia", "weight": 0.2548, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2548, "runner_up": "Dani Lorenzo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1441, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Pablo Martínez" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Chupete": { "player_id": 1913386, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 185, "market_value": 10700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2251, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, 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"creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421087.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1306, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421077.0, "match_date": "2026-10-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0024, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1335, "goals": 0.155, "goal_rate": 0.155, "shots_on_target": 0.4354, "total_shots": 0.8896, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "key_pass": 0.2672, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 21.45, "total_pass": 3.3384, "accurate_pass": 2.2776, "duels_won": 1.284, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.9464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2752, "crosses_total": 0.7208, "crosses_accurate": 0.3312, "touches": 8.177, "possession_lost": 2.5026, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0632, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.3896, "won_contest": 0.3896, "ball_recovery": 0.3896, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.563, "fouls_drawn": 0.2816, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2816, "tackles": 0.2816, "clearances": 1.1106, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5418, "xgot": 0.0301, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8898, "total_progression": 3.8593, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4542 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0024, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.4 to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1597, "goals": 0.1854, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.036, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.66, "projection_minutes": 21.45, "minutes_scale": 1.1963, "appearance_probability": 0.576 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1597, "goals": 0.1854, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.036, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1597, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.036, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 0.5938, xG scale 2.4468, xA scale 1.8415, team xA 1.16 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2251, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1226, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.453, "squad_xg_sum": 0.5938, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6312, "team_expected_assists": 1.1624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.4468, "xa_scale": 1.8415, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.576 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1597, "after": 0.2251 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2251, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1226, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2054, "fifa_rank": 783.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2251, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1863, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1226, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1863, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "scorer_weight": 0.2527, "squad_weight_total": 1.608, "weight_share": 0.1571, "finishing_factor": 1.1226, "appearance_weight": 0.576, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pablo Martínez", "weight": 0.3138, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3138, "runner_up": "Chupete", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2527 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2251, "goal_rate": 0.1854, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5209, "total_shots": 1.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3197, "rating": 6.6264, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 3.9938, "accurate_pass": 2.7248, "duels_won": 1.5361, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5256, "crosses_total": 0.8623, "crosses_accurate": 0.3962, "touches": 9.7824, "possession_lost": 2.9939, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.4683, "aerial_lost": 1.1106, "total_contest": 0.4661, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 0.4661, "challenges_lost": 0.3896, "fouls": 0.6735, "fouls_drawn": 0.3369, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3369, "tackles": 0.3369, "clearances": 1.3286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6482, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2608, "total_progression": 4.617, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5434, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1863, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0155, "finishing_factor": 1.1226, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0155, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0126, "squad_weight_total": 1.0769, "weight_share": 0.0117, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.576, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "David Larrubia", "weight": 0.2548, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2548, "runner_up": "Dani Lorenzo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1441, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Pablo Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Adrián Niño": { "player_id": 1402927, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 186, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1682, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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6.7782, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0955 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0573 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0195 } ], "others": 0.0073, "total": 6.7782, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.095495 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057336 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.038035 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.022128 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.019529 } ], 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1355, "goals": 0.1606, "goal_rate": 0.1606, "shots_on_target": 0.4081, "total_shots": 1.2649, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "key_pass": 0.3099, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 27.87, "total_pass": 4.5842, "accurate_pass": 3.744, "duels_won": 1.2223, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4541, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0002, "possession_lost": 2.0506, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.6844, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.2645, "won_contest": 0.2645, "ball_recovery": 0.2645, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1911, "fouls_drawn": 0.1911, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3112, "tackles": 0.3112, "clearances": 0.2645, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2214, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.2561, "total_progression": 5.6872, "progressive_carries": 0.2645, "shots_off_target": 0.8567 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.9 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.123, "goals": 0.1457, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2009, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 27.87, "minutes_scale": 0.9075, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.123, "goals": 0.1457, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2009, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.123, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2009, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 0.5938, xG scale 2.4468, xA scale 1.8415, team xA 1.16 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1682, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2748, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1312, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.453, "squad_xg_sum": 0.5938, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6312, "team_expected_assists": 1.1624, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.4468, "xa_scale": 1.8415, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.123, "after": 0.1682 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1682, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2748, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1312, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4211, "fifa_rank": 4265.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1682, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2748, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1453, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1312, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1453, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "scorer_weight": 0.1903, "squad_weight_total": 1.608, "weight_share": 0.1183, "finishing_factor": 1.1312, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pablo Martínez", "weight": 0.3138, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3138, "runner_up": "Chupete", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2527 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1682, "goal_rate": 0.1457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3704, "total_shots": 1.1479, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.2812, "rating": 6.7782, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 4.1602, "accurate_pass": 3.3977, "duels_won": 1.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7072, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2271, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1677, "possession_lost": 1.8609, "dispossessed": 0.536, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 1.8839, "total_contest": 0.24, "won_contest": 0.24, "ball_recovery": 0.24, "challenges_lost": 0.2645, "fouls": 0.1734, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2824, "tackles": 0.2824, "clearances": 0.24, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2748, "offsides": 0.2248, "ball_carries": 1.1399, "total_progression": 5.1612, "progressive_carries": 0.24, "shots_off_target": 0.7775, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1453, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "finishing_factor": 1.1312, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0168, "squad_weight_total": 1.0769, "weight_share": 0.0156, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "David Larrubia", "weight": 0.2548, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2548, "runner_up": "Dani Lorenzo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1441, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Pablo Martínez" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.45, "expected_assists": 1.16, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 487, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 6.89, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } }, "Racing Club": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Julen Agirrezabala": { "player_id": 1014412, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 187, "market_value": 6500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, 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"fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421098.0, "match_date": "2026-11-01 15:15:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Racing Club", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 3.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Racing Club", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16421083.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "goals_prevented": -0.0081 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 932, "combined_rank_score": 433.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 434.0, "sofascore_rating": 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"rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 28 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7116, "goals_prevented": -0.1183, "rating": 6.8178, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 22.4446, "accurate_pass": 17.0203, "total_long_balls": 7.6216, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1995, "touches": 34.9267, "clearances": 1.2788, "ball_recovery": 8.1841, "high_claims": 1.1644, "punches": 0.8215, "aerial_won": 0.2713, "sweeper_actions": 1.5903, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5175, "saves_inside_box": 2.1127, "possession_lost": 5.4286, "duels_won": 0.6591, "duels_lost": 0.1014, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2196, "total_own_half_passes": 16.938, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.886 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-18", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 15.886, "accurateLongBalls": 2.1995, "possessionLostCtrl": 5.4286, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.066, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.7862, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.5442 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.7116076946258545, "model_output": 2.7116, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", 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"possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0936 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0304 } ], "others": -0.0868, "total": -0.1183, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.093551 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.050611 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.039492 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.03708 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.030361 } ], "others_margin": -0.086764 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.817836761474609, "model_output": 6.8178, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0185 } ], "others": -0.1847, "total": 6.8178, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.028548 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.024162 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.021556 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.020398 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018539 } ], "others_margin": -0.184585 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.01937 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012185 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012118 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.010195 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.008393 } ], "others_margin": -0.025993 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9928, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0384, "tackles": 2.2271, "tackles_won": 1.3185, "clearances": 3.0168, "aerial_won": 1.1259, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7697, "minutes": 87.28, "total_pass": 42.2784, "accurate_pass": 31.2297, "duels_won": 4.1911, "total_long_balls": 3.202, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6121, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6956, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7816, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4482, "crosses_total": 1.3618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.3523, "possession_lost": 16.2988, "dispossessed": 0.2261, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.8709, "total_contest": 0.5773, "won_contest": 0.119, "ball_recovery": 3.2449, "challenges_lost": 0.6997, "fouls": 1.2569, "fouls_drawn": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.2602, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1938, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "expected_goals": 0.0394, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.456, "total_progression": 41.3541, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3673 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1200000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9928, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0384, "tackles": 2.2271, "tackles_won": 1.3185, "clearances": 3.0168, "aerial_won": 1.1259, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7697, "minutes": 87.28, "total_pass": 42.2784, "accurate_pass": 31.2297, "duels_won": 4.1911, "total_long_balls": 3.202, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6121, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6956, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7816, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4482, "crosses_total": 1.3618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.3523, "possession_lost": 16.2988, "dispossessed": 0.2261, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.8709, "total_contest": 0.5773, "won_contest": 0.119, "ball_recovery": 3.2449, "challenges_lost": 0.6997, "fouls": 1.2569, "fouls_drawn": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.2602, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1938, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "expected_goals": 0.0394, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.456, "total_progression": 41.3541, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3673 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0384, "tackles": 2.2271, "tackles_won": 1.3185, "clearances": 3.0168, "aerial_won": 1.1259, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7697, "minutes": 87.28, "total_pass": 42.2784, "accurate_pass": 31.2297, "duels_won": 4.1911, "total_long_balls": 3.202, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6121, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6956, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7816, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4482, "crosses_total": 1.3618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.3523, "possession_lost": 16.2988, "dispossessed": 0.2261, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.8709, "total_contest": 0.5773, "won_contest": 0.119, "ball_recovery": 3.2449, "challenges_lost": 0.6997, "fouls": 1.2569, "fouls_drawn": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.2602, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1938, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "expected_goals": 0.0394, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.456, "total_progression": 41.3541, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3673, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "David Larrubia", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "David Larrubia", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0384, "tackles": 2.2271, "tackles_won": 1.3185, "clearances": 3.0168, "aerial_won": 1.1259, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7697, "minutes": 87.28, "total_pass": 42.2784, "accurate_pass": 31.2297, "duels_won": 4.1911, "total_long_balls": 3.202, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6121, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6956, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7816, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4482, "crosses_total": 1.3618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.3523, "possession_lost": 16.2988, "dispossessed": 0.2261, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.8709, "total_contest": 0.5773, "won_contest": 0.119, "ball_recovery": 3.2449, "challenges_lost": 0.6997, "fouls": 1.2569, "fouls_drawn": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.2602, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0394, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.456, "total_progression": 41.3541, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3673, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "David Larrubia", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.7251, xG scale 1.6551, xA scale 1.0606, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0384, "tackles": 2.2271, "tackles_won": 1.3185, "clearances": 3.0168, "aerial_won": 1.1259, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7697, "minutes": 87.28, "total_pass": 42.2784, "accurate_pass": 31.2297, "duels_won": 4.1911, "total_long_balls": 3.202, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6121, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6956, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7816, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4482, "crosses_total": 1.3618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.3523, "possession_lost": 16.2988, "dispossessed": 0.2261, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.8709, "total_contest": 0.5773, "won_contest": 0.119, "ball_recovery": 3.2449, "challenges_lost": 0.6997, "fouls": 1.2569, "fouls_drawn": 0.1921, "blocks": 0.2602, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0652, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.456, "total_progression": 41.3541, "progressive_carries": 0.5611, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3673, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "David Larrubia", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7251, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9051, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6551, "xa_scale": 1.0606, "opponent_lambda": 1.453, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0394, "after": 0.0652 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0522, "squad_weight_total": 1.2806, "weight_share": 0.0407, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0384, "tackles": 2.2271, "tackles_won": 1.3185, "clearances": 3.0168, "aerial_won": 1.1259, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7697, "minutes": 87.28, "total_pass": 42.2784, "accurate_pass": 31.2297, "duels_won": 4.1911, "total_long_balls": 3.202, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6121, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6956, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7816, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4482, "crosses_total": 1.3618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.3523, "possession_lost": 16.2988, "dispossessed": 0.2261, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_lost": 0.8709, "total_contest": 0.5773, "won_contest": 0.119, "ball_recovery": 3.2449, 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-0.266077 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125761 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050676 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.042142 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.024443 } ], "others_margin": -0.112853 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.090919494628906, "model_output": 7.0909, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0754 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0219 } ], "others": 0.024, "total": 7.0909, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.099997 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.075367 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03041 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025575 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.021918 } ], "others_margin": 0.024084 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.816, "expected_assists": 0.063, "assists": 0.0788, "assist_rate": 0.0788, "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goals": 0.0679, "goal_rate": 0.0679, "shots_on_target": 0.2159, "total_shots": 0.662, "rating": 7.0909, "minutes": 85.87, "total_pass": 56.8826, "accurate_pass": 50.1973, "duels_won": 4.7155, "total_long_balls": 2.26, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0191, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.4434, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9178, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.754, "crosses_total": 0.2829, "crosses_accurate": 0.0909, "touches": 71.8399, "possession_lost": 11.3266, "dispossessed": 1.1998, "duels_lost": 4.603, "aerial_won": 0.7754, "aerial_lost": 0.8056, "interceptions": 0.4334, "tackles_won": 0.8235, "tackles": 1.8688, "clearances": 1.0951, "total_contest": 1.8997, "won_contest": 1.0233, "challenges_lost": 0.679, "fouls": 1.2252, "fouls_drawn": 1.048, "blocks": 0.3883, "big_chances_created": 0.0596, "big_chances_missed": 0.0104, "xgot": 0.0567, "ball_carries": 25.6897, "total_progression": 99.594, "progressive_carries": 2.1618, "shots_off_target": 0.4461 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.816, "expected_assists": 0.063, "assists": 0.0788, "assist_rate": 0.0788, "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goals": 0.0679, "goal_rate": 0.0679, "shots_on_target": 0.2159, "total_shots": 0.662, "rating": 7.0909, "minutes": 85.87, "total_pass": 56.8826, "accurate_pass": 50.1973, "duels_won": 4.7155, "total_long_balls": 2.26, 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"expected_assists": 0.063, "assists": 0.0788, "assist_rate": 0.0788, "expected_goals": 0.0414, "goals": 0.0663, "goal_rate": 0.0663, "shots_on_target": 0.2108, "total_shots": 0.6464, "rating": 7.0909, "minutes": 85.87, "total_pass": 56.8826, "accurate_pass": 50.1973, "duels_won": 4.7155, "total_long_balls": 2.26, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0191, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.4434, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9178, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.754, "crosses_total": 0.2829, "crosses_accurate": 0.0909, "touches": 71.8399, "possession_lost": 11.3266, "dispossessed": 1.1998, "duels_lost": 4.603, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8056, "interceptions": 0.4334, "tackles_won": 0.8235, "tackles": 1.8688, "clearances": 1.0951, "total_contest": 1.8997, "won_contest": 1.0233, "challenges_lost": 0.679, "fouls": 1.2252, "fouls_drawn": 1.048, "blocks": 0.3883, "big_chances_created": 0.0596, "big_chances_missed": 0.0102, "xgot": 0.0554, "ball_carries": 25.6897, 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"antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.7251, xG scale 1.6551, xA scale 1.0606, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.816, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "assist_rate": 0.0788, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0685, "goal_rate": 0.0663, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2108, "total_shots": 0.6464, "rating": 7.0909, "minutes": 85.87, "total_pass": 56.8826, "accurate_pass": 50.1973, "duels_won": 4.7155, "total_long_balls": 2.26, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0191, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.4434, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9178, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.754, "crosses_total": 0.2829, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1398 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7251, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9051, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6551, "xa_scale": 1.0606, "opponent_lambda": 1.453, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0414, "after": 0.0685 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"goal_rate": 0.0663, "scorer_weight": 0.0856, "squad_weight_total": 1.2806, "weight_share": 0.0669, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.816, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "assist_rate": 0.0788, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0685, "goal_rate": 0.0663, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2108, "total_shots": 0.6464, "rating": 7.0909, "minutes": 85.87, "total_pass": 56.8826, "accurate_pass": 50.1973, "duels_won": 4.7155, "total_long_balls": 2.26, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0191, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.4434, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9178, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.754, "crosses_total": 0.2829, "crosses_accurate": 0.0909, "touches": 71.8399, "possession_lost": 11.3266, "dispossessed": 1.1998, "duels_lost": 4.603, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 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-0.0279, "total": 0.7332, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.314125 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129129 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049276 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.046451 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.041647 } ], "others_margin": -0.02788 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9451584815979, "model_output": 6.9452, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0419 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0011, "total": 6.9452, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041919 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.02783 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022145 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016104 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.013176 } ], "others_margin": -0.001211 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9982, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0637, "expected_assists": 0.0967, "assists": 0.0776, "assist_rate": 0.0776, "expected_goals": 0.0543, "goals": 0.0667, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.2318, "total_shots": 0.732, "rating": 6.9452, "minutes": 69.06, "total_pass": 35.727, "accurate_pass": 32.9506, "duels_won": 4.0003, "total_long_balls": 1.6862, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1244, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1907, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7266, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.224, "crosses_total": 2.2174, "crosses_accurate": 0.5285, "touches": 48.6838, "possession_lost": 7.8574, "dispossessed": 1.242, "duels_lost": 3.6703, "aerial_won": 0.0328, "aerial_lost": 0.3116, "interceptions": 0.3344, "tackles_won": 0.7358, "tackles": 1.4946, "clearances": 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"expected_assists": 0.0967, "assists": 0.0776, "assist_rate": 0.0776, "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goals": 0.0703, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "shots_on_target": 0.2442, "total_shots": 0.7711, "rating": 6.9452, "minutes": 69.06, "total_pass": 35.727, "accurate_pass": 32.9506, "duels_won": 4.0003, "total_long_balls": 1.6862, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1244, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1907, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7266, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.224, "crosses_total": 2.2174, "crosses_accurate": 0.5285, "touches": 48.6838, "possession_lost": 7.8574, "dispossessed": 1.242, "duels_lost": 3.6703, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3116, "interceptions": 0.3344, "tackles_won": 0.7358, "tackles": 1.4946, "clearances": 0.2786, "total_contest": 1.6796, "won_contest": 0.9918, "challenges_lost": 0.5238, "fouls": 1.0257, "fouls_drawn": 1.481, "blocks": 0.063, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.087, "xgot": 0.0472, "ball_carries": 16.3494, 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"antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.7251, xG scale 1.6551, xA scale 1.0606, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0637, "expected_assists": 0.1026, "assist_rate": 0.0776, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2442, "total_shots": 0.7711, "rating": 6.9452, "minutes": 69.06, "total_pass": 35.727, "accurate_pass": 32.9506, "duels_won": 4.0003, "total_long_balls": 1.6862, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1244, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1907, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7266, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.224, "crosses_total": 2.2174, "crosses_accurate": 0.5285, "touches": 48.6838, "possession_lost": 7.8574, "dispossessed": 1.242, "duels_lost": 3.6703, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3116, "interceptions": 0.3344, "tackles_won": 0.7358, "tackles": 1.4946, "clearances": 0.2786, "total_contest": 1.6796, "won_contest": 0.9918, "challenges_lost": 0.5238, "fouls": 1.0257, "fouls_drawn": 1.481, "blocks": 0.063, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.087, "xgot": 0.0781, "ball_carries": 16.3494, "total_progression": 59.9985, "progressive_carries": 1.9971, "shots_off_target": 0.5269, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0533, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.516, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Rafa Garrido", "opponent_faced": "Rafa Garrido", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1222, "creation_factor": 0.8698 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7251, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9051, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6551, "xa_scale": 1.0606, "opponent_lambda": 1.453, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0572, "after": 0.0947 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0967, "after": 0.1026 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5799, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0649, "goal_rate": 0.0459, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1431, "total_shots": 0.4758, "rating": 6.6836, "minutes": 83.33, "total_pass": 14.969, "accurate_pass": 12.705, "duels_won": 2.3439, "total_long_balls": 0.4528, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0171, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.5643, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1407, "crosses_total": 0.4528, "crosses_accurate": 0.4528, "touches": 21.8408, "possession_lost": 3.1696, "dispossessed": 0.4528, "duels_lost": 2.3439, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.9056, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9056, "tackles": 1.4383, "clearances": 0.4528, "total_contest": 0.4528, "won_contest": 0.4528, "challenges_lost": 0.9855, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4528, "blocks": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4867, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "expected_goals": 0.0836, "goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.0921, "shots_on_target": 0.2631, "total_shots": 0.9464, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 7.6573, "accurate_pass": 5.9047, "duels_won": 0.7975, "total_long_balls": 0.7955, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2914, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.006, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8828, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8986, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.917, "possession_lost": 2.3984, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2795, "aerial_won": 0.0826, "aerial_lost": 0.2926, "interceptions": 0.0826, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1582, "clearances": 0.5958, 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"importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8494 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1254 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0219 } ], "others": 0.0108, "total": 0.4354, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.968 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.275826 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.078673 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.059133 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.052975 } ], "others_margin": 0.025271 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1749507486820221, "model_output": 0.175, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1684 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.069 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0155 } ], "others": -0.0518, "total": 0.175, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.16844 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.06903 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.016966 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.015537 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01551 } ], "others_margin": -0.051888 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.640172481536865, "model_output": 6.6402, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0408 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": -0.0498, "total": 6.6402, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.040811 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.021255 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016582 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016101 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014014 } ], "others_margin": -0.049845 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9901, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4166, "tackles": 0.485, "tackles_won": 0.2772, "clearances": 1.765, "aerial_won": 0.4311, "total_shots": 0.1733, "rating": 6.6402, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 19.8272, "accurate_pass": 15.7066, "duels_won": 2.4919, "total_long_balls": 2.7895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4599, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0234, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.5452, "possession_lost": 4.2846, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7406, "aerial_lost": 1.1038, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9406, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.4975, "fouls_drawn": 0.6127, "blocks": 0.9197, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4459, "total_progression": 18.3642, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1733 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9901, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.4 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.30)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3922, "tackles": 0.4567, "tackles_won": 0.261, "clearances": 1.6618, "aerial_won": 0.4059, "total_shots": 0.1632, "rating": 6.6402, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 18.6683, "accurate_pass": 14.7885, "duels_won": 2.3462, "total_long_balls": 2.6265, "accurate_long_balls": 0.433, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2037, 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17.2908, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1632, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3922, "tackles": 0.4567, "tackles_won": 0.261, "clearances": 1.6618, "aerial_won": 0.4059, "total_shots": 0.1632, "rating": 6.6402, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 18.6683, "accurate_pass": 14.7885, "duels_won": 2.3462, "total_long_balls": 2.6265, "accurate_long_balls": 0.433, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2037, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5849, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.8183, "possession_lost": 4.0342, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5804, "aerial_lost": 1.1038, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8856, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.41, "fouls_drawn": 0.5769, "blocks": 0.8659, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1276, "total_progression": 17.2908, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1632, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.299, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3922, "tackles": 0.4567, "tackles_won": 0.261, "clearances": 1.6618, "aerial_won": 0.4059, "total_shots": 0.1632, "rating": 6.6402, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 18.6683, "accurate_pass": 14.7885, "duels_won": 2.3462, "total_long_balls": 2.6265, "accurate_long_balls": 0.433, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2037, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5849, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.8183, "possession_lost": 4.0342, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5804, "aerial_lost": 1.1038, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8856, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.41, "fouls_drawn": 0.5769, "blocks": 0.8659, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1276, "total_progression": 17.2908, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1632, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5579, "fifa_rank": 6974.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } } ] }, "Pedro Felipe": { "player_id": 1485292, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 190, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6431, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 1.7667, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421083.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0807, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 5.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1780, "combined_rank_score": 964.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6431, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pedro Felipe", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Emil Tsenov", "ranking": 1775 }, { "player_name": "Maksim Myakish", "ranking": 1776 }, { "player_name": "Jun'ai Byfield", "ranking": 1777 }, { "player_name": "Nemanja Gudelj", "ranking": 1778 }, { "player_name": "Jon Guridi", "ranking": 1779 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nico Guillén", "ranking": 1781 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Pires", "ranking": 1782 }, { "player_name": "Yuri", "ranking": 1783 }, { "player_name": "William Furtado", "ranking": 1784 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Del Valle", "ranking": 1785 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", 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"model_output": 0.3051, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4649 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0557 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0302, "total": 0.3051, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.137969, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.762886 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.147523 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.04274 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.038258 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.036796 } ], "others_margin": -0.094556 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5860885977745056, "model_output": 0.5861, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7121 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0259 } ], "others": -0.0137, "total": 0.5861, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.71989 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.074998 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 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"margin": -0.695733 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.056894 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.045977 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.04054 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.037715 } ], "others_margin": 0.028215 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.2320666313171387, "model_output": 1.2321, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2552 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1386 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.113 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1014 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0628 } ], "others": 0.159, "total": 1.2321, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.079505 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.12722 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.117139 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.105719 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.06026 } ], "others_margin": 0.138196 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6393956542015076, "model_output": 0.6394, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7865 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1275 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0548 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0516 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0472 } ], "others": 0.0301, "total": 0.6394, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.853838 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.246767 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.113583 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.096366 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.080555 } ], "others_margin": 0.048275 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.23849140107631683, "model_output": 0.2385, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1796 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0438 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0141 } ], "others": 0.0001, "total": 0.2385, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.179621 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.043798 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017826 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015667 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.014109 } ], "others_margin": 4.6e-05 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.643059253692627, "model_output": 6.6431, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0331 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0444, "total": 6.6431, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.033107 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.025501 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.020703 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.017154 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014811 } ], "others_margin": -0.044446 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3016, "tackles": 0.5795, "tackles_won": 0.3589, "clearances": 1.2181, "aerial_won": 0.6322, "total_shots": 0.2358, "rating": 6.6431, "minutes": 11.39, "total_pass": 4.2708, "accurate_pass": 3.2425, "duels_won": 1.148, "total_long_balls": 0.2241, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2241, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5192, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0184, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.2241, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1041, "possession_lost": 1.4826, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9391, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4879, "challenges_lost": 0.5275, "fouls": 0.7912, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.025, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6601, "total_progression": 3.1769, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3103, "shots_off_target": 0.2358 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 11.4 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.30)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3594, "tackles": 0.6905, "tackles_won": 0.4277, "clearances": 1.4515, "aerial_won": 0.7533, "total_shots": 0.281, "rating": 6.6431, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 5.089, "accurate_pass": 3.8637, "duels_won": 1.3679, "total_long_balls": 0.267, "accurate_long_balls": 0.267, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1934, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5967, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.8956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.267, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.8484, "possession_lost": 1.7667, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.3106, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.5275, "fouls": 0.9428, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9782, "total_progression": 3.7856, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3698, "shots_off_target": 0.281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.57, "projection_minutes": 11.39, "minutes_scale": 1.1916, "appearance_probability": 0.299 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { 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"key_pass": 0.3698, "shots_off_target": 0.281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3594, "tackles": 0.6905, "tackles_won": 0.4277, "clearances": 1.4515, "aerial_won": 0.7533, "total_shots": 0.281, "rating": 6.6431, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 5.089, "accurate_pass": 3.8637, "duels_won": 1.3679, "total_long_balls": 0.267, "accurate_long_balls": 0.267, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1934, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5967, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.8956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.267, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.8484, "possession_lost": 1.7667, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.3106, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5814, 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"others": -0.0346, "total": 6.5505, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091703 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.06771 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05589 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.044005 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012964 } ], "others_margin": -0.034595 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9934, quality 0.461)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4532, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "assists": 0.0521, "assist_rate": 0.0521, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "shots_on_target": 0.1022, "total_shots": 0.2005, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 17.79, "total_pass": 10.3634, "accurate_pass": 7.9859, "duels_won": 0.7154, "total_long_balls": 0.2649, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4113, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8813, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1046, "crosses_total": 2.7688, "crosses_accurate": 0.7154, "touches": 16.1927, "possession_lost": 5.2258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0201, "aerial_won": 0.2252, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2649, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2252, "won_contest": 0.2252, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2252, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4775, "total_progression": 15.0734, "progressive_carries": 0.1914, "shots_off_target": 0.0983 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4900000, "quality_factor": 0.4609, "boost_factor": 0.9934, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.8 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "assists": 0.0646, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goals": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2793, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7939, "total_progression": 18.6959, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.1219, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.07, "projection_minutes": 17.79, "minutes_scale": 1.2403, "appearance_probability": 0.503 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "assists": 0.0646, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goals": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2793, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7939, "total_progression": 18.6959, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.1219, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2793, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7939, "total_progression": 18.6959, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.1219, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.7251, xG scale 1.6551, xA scale 1.0606, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2793, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7939, "total_progression": 18.6959, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.1219, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2394, "creation_factor": 1.2 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7251, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9051, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6551, "xa_scale": 1.0606, "opponent_lambda": 1.453, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.503 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0455, "after": 0.0243 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2793, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7939, "total_progression": 18.6959, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.1219, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2394, "creation_factor": 1.2, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3523, "fifa_rank": 2801.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, 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"appearance_weight": 0.503, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2793, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7939, "total_progression": 18.6959, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.1219, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0206, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0237, "finishing_factor": 1.2394, "creation_factor": 1.2, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0237, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "provider_weight": 0.0292, "squad_weight_total": 0.9553, "weight_share": 0.0305, "creation_factor": 1.2, "appearance_weight": 0.503, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Andrés Vallecillo": { "player_id": 2333376, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 29, "height": 187, "market_value": 97000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0145, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1714, "goals": 0.1699, "goal_rate": 0.1699, "shots_on_target": 0.4974, "total_shots": 1.382, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "key_pass": 0.3542, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 23.92, "total_pass": 5.173, "accurate_pass": 4.8378, "duels_won": 1.124, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6492, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1148, "possession_lost": 1.9699, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.6045, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.3943, "won_contest": 0.3943, "ball_recovery": 0.3943, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.0145, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3943, "tackles": 0.7295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3922, "offsides": 0.7295, "ball_carries": 2.5328, "total_progression": 4.458, "progressive_carries": 0.7888, "shots_off_target": 0.8845 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 22000000, "quality_factor": 0.6503, "boost_factor": 1.0145, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1873, "goals": 0.1856, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.387, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26.14, "total_pass": 5.652, "accurate_pass": 5.2858, "duels_won": 1.2281, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5283, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9588, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.9383, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.4308, "won_contest": 0.4308, "ball_recovery": 0.4308, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.7971, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4285, "offsides": 0.7295, "ball_carries": 2.7673, "total_progression": 4.8708, "progressive_carries": 0.8618, "shots_off_target": 0.9664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.14, "projection_minutes": 23.92, "minutes_scale": 1.0926, "appearance_probability": 0.597 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1873, "goals": 0.1856, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.387, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26.14, "total_pass": 5.652, "accurate_pass": 5.2858, "duels_won": 1.2281, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5283, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9588, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.9383, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.4308, "won_contest": 0.4308, "ball_recovery": 0.4308, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.7971, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4285, "offsides": 0.7295, "ball_carries": 2.7673, "total_progression": 4.8708, "progressive_carries": 0.8618, "shots_off_target": 0.9664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1873, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.387, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26.14, "total_pass": 5.652, "accurate_pass": 5.2858, "duels_won": 1.2281, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5283, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9588, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.9383, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.4308, "won_contest": 0.4308, "ball_recovery": 0.4308, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.7971, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4285, "offsides": 0.7295, "ball_carries": 2.7673, "total_progression": 4.8708, "progressive_carries": 0.8618, "shots_off_target": 0.9664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.14, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.7251, xG scale 1.6551, xA scale 1.0606, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.185, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "key_pass": 0.387, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26.14, "total_pass": 5.652, "accurate_pass": 5.2858, "duels_won": 1.2281, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5283, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9588, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.9383, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.4308, "won_contest": 0.4308, "ball_recovery": 0.4308, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.7971, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4234, "offsides": 0.7295, "ball_carries": 2.7673, "total_progression": 4.8708, "progressive_carries": 0.8618, "shots_off_target": 0.9664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.14, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9928, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7251, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9051, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6551, "xa_scale": 1.0606, "opponent_lambda": 1.453, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.597 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0259, "after": 0.0164 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 66.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.185, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "key_pass": 0.387, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26.14, "total_pass": 5.652, "accurate_pass": 5.2858, "duels_won": 1.2281, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5283, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9588, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.9383, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.4308, "won_contest": 0.4308, "ball_recovery": 0.4308, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.7971, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4234, "offsides": 0.7295, "ball_carries": 2.7673, "total_progression": 4.8708, "progressive_carries": 0.8618, "shots_off_target": 0.9664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.14, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9928, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6997, "fifa_rank": 10550.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 66.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.185, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "key_pass": 0.387, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26.14, "total_pass": 5.652, "accurate_pass": 5.2858, "duels_won": 1.2281, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5283, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9588, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.9383, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.4308, "won_contest": 0.4308, "ball_recovery": 0.4308, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.7971, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4234, "offsides": 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scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.185, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "key_pass": 0.387, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26.14, "total_pass": 5.652, "accurate_pass": 5.2858, "duels_won": 1.2281, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5283, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9588, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.9383, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.4308, "won_contest": 0.4308, "ball_recovery": 0.4308, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.7971, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4234, "offsides": 0.7295, "ball_carries": 2.7673, 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"is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 175, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0697, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, 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"importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0593 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0465, "total": 6.6244, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059271 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032227 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.0165 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014735 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01267 } ], "others_margin": -0.046494 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9998, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goals": 0.0616, "goal_rate": 0.0616, "shots_on_target": 0.2591, "total_shots": 0.8519, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "key_pass": 0.3983, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 18.85, "total_pass": 5.9255, "accurate_pass": 4.9615, "duels_won": 1.1173, "total_long_balls": 0.0878, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0779, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9886, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3404, "crosses_total": 0.464, "crosses_accurate": 0.1572, "touches": 12.2362, "possession_lost": 3.5673, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 1.8096, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 0.938, "won_contest": 0.3979, "ball_recovery": 1.0564, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.2983, "fouls_drawn": 0.579, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0409, "tackles_won": 0.05, "tackles": 0.1404, "clearances": 0.2889, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0137, "xgot": 0.0545, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 5.2582, "total_progression": 17.1062, "progressive_carries": 1.1886, "shots_off_target": 0.5928 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8199999, "quality_factor": 0.5011, "boost_factor": 0.9998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.9 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0739, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.54, "projection_minutes": 18.85, "minutes_scale": 1.3551, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0739, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0739, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.7251, xG scale 1.6551, xA scale 1.0606, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0697, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0261, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7251, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9051, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6551, "xa_scale": 1.0606, "opponent_lambda": 1.453, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0347, "after": 0.021 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0697, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0261, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5059, "fifa_rank": 5917.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0697, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0708, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0261, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0708, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "scorer_weight": 0.0776, "squad_weight_total": 1.2806, "weight_share": 0.0606, "finishing_factor": 1.0261, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0697, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0708, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "finishing_factor": 1.0261, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0168, "squad_weight_total": 0.9553, "weight_share": 0.0176, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Yassir Zabiri": { "player_id": 1606013, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 182, "market_value": 22000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.185, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.4234, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.14, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1591, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0162, "finishing_factor": 0.9928, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421098.0, "match_date": "2026-11-01 15:15:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Racing Club", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 3.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Racing Club", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16421083.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8613, "expected_assists": 0.1414, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0145, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1714, "goals": 0.1699, "goal_rate": 0.1699, "shots_on_target": 0.4974, "total_shots": 1.382, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "key_pass": 0.3542, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 23.92, "total_pass": 5.173, "accurate_pass": 4.8378, "duels_won": 1.124, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6492, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.314, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1148, "possession_lost": 1.9699, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.6045, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.3943, "won_contest": 0.3943, "ball_recovery": 0.3943, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.0145, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3943, "tackles": 0.7295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3922, "offsides": 0.7295, "ball_carries": 2.5328, "total_progression": 4.458, "progressive_carries": 0.7888, "shots_off_target": 0.8845 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 22000000, "quality_factor": 0.6503, "boost_factor": 1.0145, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1873, "goals": 0.1856, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.387, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26.14, "total_pass": 5.652, "accurate_pass": 5.2858, "duels_won": 1.2281, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5283, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9588, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.9383, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.4308, "won_contest": 0.4308, "ball_recovery": 0.4308, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.7971, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4285, "offsides": 0.7295, "ball_carries": 2.7673, "total_progression": 4.8708, "progressive_carries": 0.8618, "shots_off_target": 0.9664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.14, "projection_minutes": 23.92, "minutes_scale": 1.0926, "appearance_probability": 0.597 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1873, "goals": 0.1856, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.387, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26.14, "total_pass": 5.652, "accurate_pass": 5.2858, "duels_won": 1.2281, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5283, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9588, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.9383, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.4308, "won_contest": 0.4308, "ball_recovery": 0.4308, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.7971, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4285, "offsides": 0.7295, "ball_carries": 2.7673, "total_progression": 4.8708, "progressive_carries": 0.8618, "shots_off_target": 0.9664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1873, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.387, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26.14, "total_pass": 5.652, "accurate_pass": 5.2858, "duels_won": 1.2281, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5283, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9588, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.9383, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.4308, "won_contest": 0.4308, "ball_recovery": 0.4308, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.7971, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4285, "offsides": 0.7295, "ball_carries": 2.7673, "total_progression": 4.8708, "progressive_carries": 0.8618, "shots_off_target": 0.9664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.14, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.7251, xG scale 1.6551, xA scale 1.0606, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.185, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "key_pass": 0.387, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26.14, "total_pass": 5.652, "accurate_pass": 5.2858, "duels_won": 1.2281, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5283, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9588, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.9383, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.4308, "won_contest": 0.4308, "ball_recovery": 0.4308, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.7971, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4234, "offsides": 0.7295, "ball_carries": 2.7673, "total_progression": 4.8708, "progressive_carries": 0.8618, "shots_off_target": 0.9664, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.14, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9928, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7251, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9051, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6551, "xa_scale": 1.0606, "opponent_lambda": 1.453, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.597 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0259, "after": 0.0164 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 66.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.185, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "key_pass": 0.387, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26.14, "total_pass": 5.652, "accurate_pass": 5.2858, "duels_won": 1.2281, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5283, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9588, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.9383, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.4308, "won_contest": 0.4308, "ball_recovery": 0.4308, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.7971, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4234, "offsides": 0.7295, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.185, "goal_rate": 0.1856, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5435, "total_shots": 1.51, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "key_pass": 0.387, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 26.14, "total_pass": 5.652, "accurate_pass": 5.2858, "duels_won": 1.2281, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5283, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9588, "possession_lost": 2.1523, "dispossessed": 0.6202, "duels_lost": 3.9383, "aerial_lost": 1.3586, "total_contest": 0.4308, "won_contest": 0.4308, "ball_recovery": 0.4308, "challenges_lost": 1.0057, "fouls": 1.1084, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.7971, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4234, "offsides": 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"is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 175, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0697, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, 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"importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0593 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0465, "total": 6.6244, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059271 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032227 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.0165 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014735 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01267 } ], "others_margin": -0.046494 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9998, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0591, "goals": 0.0616, "goal_rate": 0.0616, "shots_on_target": 0.2591, "total_shots": 0.8519, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "key_pass": 0.3983, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 18.85, "total_pass": 5.9255, "accurate_pass": 4.9615, "duels_won": 1.1173, "total_long_balls": 0.0878, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0779, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9886, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3404, "crosses_total": 0.464, "crosses_accurate": 0.1572, "touches": 12.2362, "possession_lost": 3.5673, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 1.8096, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 0.938, "won_contest": 0.3979, "ball_recovery": 1.0564, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.2983, "fouls_drawn": 0.579, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0409, "tackles_won": 0.05, "tackles": 0.1404, "clearances": 0.2889, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0137, "xgot": 0.0545, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 5.2582, "total_progression": 17.1062, "progressive_carries": 1.1886, "shots_off_target": 0.5928 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8199999, "quality_factor": 0.5011, "boost_factor": 0.9998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.9 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0739, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.54, "projection_minutes": 18.85, "minutes_scale": 1.3551, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0739, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0801, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0739, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.7251, xG scale 1.6551, xA scale 1.0606, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0697, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0261, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7251, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9051, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6551, "xa_scale": 1.0606, "opponent_lambda": 1.453, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0347, "after": 0.021 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0697, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0261, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5059, "fifa_rank": 5917.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0697, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0708, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0261, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0708, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "scorer_weight": 0.0776, "squad_weight_total": 1.2806, "weight_share": 0.0606, "finishing_factor": 1.0261, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3511, "total_shots": 1.1544, "expected_assists": 0.021, "key_pass": 0.5398, "rating": 6.6244, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 8.0299, "accurate_pass": 6.7235, "duels_won": 1.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.119, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5267, "crosses_total": 0.6288, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 16.5817, "possession_lost": 4.8342, "dispossessed": 0.5551, "duels_lost": 2.4523, "aerial_lost": 0.1835, "total_contest": 1.2711, "won_contest": 0.5392, "ball_recovery": 1.4316, "challenges_lost": 0.2326, "fouls": 0.4042, "fouls_drawn": 0.7846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0554, "tackles_won": 0.0678, "tackles": 0.1903, "clearances": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0186, "xgot": 0.0697, "offsides": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 7.1256, "total_progression": 23.1812, "progressive_carries": 1.6107, "shots_off_target": 0.8033, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0708, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "finishing_factor": 1.0261, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0206, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0168, "squad_weight_total": 0.9553, "weight_share": 0.0176, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Aarón Martín": { "player_id": 797286, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 180, "market_value": 4900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, 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"team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Racing Club", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16421078.0, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421064.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, 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"contribution": -0.044 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0346, "total": 6.5505, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091703 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.06771 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05589 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.044005 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012964 } ], "others_margin": -0.034595 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9934, quality 0.461)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4532, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "assists": 0.0521, "assist_rate": 0.0521, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "shots_on_target": 0.1022, "total_shots": 0.2005, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 17.79, "total_pass": 10.3634, "accurate_pass": 7.9859, "duels_won": 0.7154, "total_long_balls": 0.2649, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4113, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8813, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1046, "crosses_total": 2.7688, "crosses_accurate": 0.7154, "touches": 16.1927, "possession_lost": 5.2258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0201, "aerial_won": 0.2252, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2649, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2252, "won_contest": 0.2252, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2252, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4775, "total_progression": 15.0734, "progressive_carries": 0.1914, "shots_off_target": 0.0983 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4900000, "quality_factor": 0.4609, "boost_factor": 0.9934, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.8 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "assists": 0.0646, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goals": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2793, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7939, "total_progression": 18.6959, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.1219, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.07, "projection_minutes": 17.79, "minutes_scale": 1.2403, "appearance_probability": 0.503 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "assists": 0.0646, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goals": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2793, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7939, "total_progression": 18.6959, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.1219, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2793, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7939, "total_progression": 18.6959, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.1219, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 0.7251, xG scale 1.6551, xA scale 1.0606, team xA 0.96 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2793, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7939, "total_progression": 18.6959, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.1219, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2394, "creation_factor": 1.2 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7251, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9051, "team_expected_assists": 0.96, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6551, "xa_scale": 1.0606, "opponent_lambda": 1.453, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.503 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0455, "after": 0.0243 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2793, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7939, "total_progression": 18.6959, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.1219, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2394, "creation_factor": 1.2, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3523, "fifa_rank": 2801.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2793, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7939, "total_progression": 18.6959, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.1219, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0206, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2394, "creation_factor": 1.2, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0206, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "scorer_weight": 0.026, "squad_weight_total": 1.2806, "weight_share": 0.0203, "finishing_factor": 1.2394, "appearance_weight": 0.503, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5621, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.5505, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 12.854, "accurate_pass": 9.9051, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.3286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9908, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8633, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5717, "crosses_total": 3.4342, "crosses_accurate": 0.8873, "touches": 20.0842, "possession_lost": 6.4817, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2653, "aerial_won": 0.2793, "aerial_lost": 0.53, "interceptions": 0.3286, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3286, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2793, "won_contest": 0.2793, "challenges_lost": 0.2649, "fouls": 0.2793, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7939, "total_progression": 18.6959, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.1219, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.468, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0206, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0237, "finishing_factor": 1.2394, "creation_factor": 1.2, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0237, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "provider_weight": 0.0292, "squad_weight_total": 0.9553, "weight_share": 0.0305, "creation_factor": 1.2, "appearance_weight": 0.503, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2, "expected_assists": 0.96, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 460, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "David Larrubia", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.478, "defenders": [ "Alvaro Mantilla", "Jeanuël Belocian" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.497, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0845, "xg_multiplier": 0.9017, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alvaro Mantilla", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jeanuël Belocian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Larrubia (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Alvaro Mantilla and Jeanuël Belocian in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Martínez", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ramón" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.446, "xg_contribution": 0.1032, "xg_multiplier": 0.9801, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ramón", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.554 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Martínez (LM) is evenly matched against Pablo Ramón in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.103 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Dani Lorenzo", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 2300000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Jorge Salinas" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.505, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.391, "xg_contribution": 0.0598, "xg_multiplier": 0.8979, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorge Salinas", "role": "LB", "market_value": 8500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.609 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Lorenzo (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jorge Salinas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Izan Merino", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4800000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.46, "defenders": [ "Matteo Prati" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.462, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.463, "xg_contribution": 0.0355, "xg_multiplier": 1.0191, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matteo Prati", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.537 } ], "duel_analysis": "Izan Merino (CM) is evenly matched against Matteo Prati in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ramón Enríquez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 380000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Matteo Prati" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.462, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "xg_contribution": 0.0289, "xg_multiplier": 0.9235, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matteo Prati", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.602 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramón Enríquez (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Matteo Prati in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.029 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Dotor", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Matteo Prati" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.462, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.396, "xg_contribution": 0.0654, "xg_multiplier": 0.9647, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matteo Prati", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.604 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Dotor (CDM) is evenly matched against Matteo Prati in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Iván Martín", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Einar Galilea" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.464, "xg_contribution": 0.0414, "xg_multiplier": 0.9765, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Einar Galilea", "role": "RB", "market_value": 365000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.536 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Martín (LW) is evenly matched against Einar Galilea in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Maguette Gueye", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "xg_contribution": 0.0851, "xg_multiplier": 1.0176, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Dotor", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528 } ], "duel_analysis": "Maguette Gueye (CAM) is evenly matched against Carlos Dotor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "André Almeida", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Rafa Garrido" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.516, "xg_contribution": 0.0572, "xg_multiplier": 1.0533, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rafa Garrido", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.484 } ], "duel_analysis": "André Almeida (RW) is evenly matched against Rafa Garrido in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iñigo Vicente", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.196, "xg_contribution": 0.0787, "xg_multiplier": 0.994, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñigo Vicente (ST) is evenly matched against Ángel Recio and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.492, "away_midfield_power": 0.498, "home_creative_power": 0.402, "away_creative_power": 0.381, "home_defensive_power": 0.377, "away_defensive_power": 0.381, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.497, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Carlos Dotor", "Pablo Martínez", "Dani Lorenzo", "Izan Merino", "Ramón Enríquez" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Iván Martín", "Matteo Prati", "André Almeida", "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza", "Maguette Gueye" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Izan Merino vs André Almeida", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.001, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.001 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-1-4-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-1-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.453, "away_lambda": 1.2, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "David Larrubia": { "opponents": [ "Alvaro Mantilla", "Jeanuël Belocian" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pablo Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ramón", "Iván Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Lorenzo": { "opponents": [ "Jorge Salinas", "André Almeida" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Izan Merino": { "opponents": [ "Matteo Prati" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ramón Enríquez": { "opponents": [ "Matteo Prati", "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Dotor": { "opponents": [ "Matteo Prati", "Maguette Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Einar Galilea": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rafa Garrido": { "opponents": [ "André Almeida" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ángel Recio": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Fernando Calero": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alfonso Herrero": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Maguette Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Alvaro Mantilla": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jeanuël Belocian": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ramón": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jorge Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Dani Lorenzo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matteo Prati": { "opponents": [ "Izan Merino", "Ramón Enríquez", "Carlos Dotor" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iván Martín": { "opponents": [ "Einar Galilea", "Pablo Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Maguette Gueye": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "André Almeida": { "opponents": [ "Rafa Garrido", "Dani Lorenzo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iñigo Vicente": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Íñigo Sáinz-Maza": { "opponents": [ "Ramón Enríquez" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Julen Agirrezabala": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia", "Izan Merino" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Izan Merino vs André Almeida will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.38, Away: 0.26. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.993, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.047, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9855, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0113, "home_midfield_factor": 1.001, "away_midfield_factor": 1.001, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4439, "away_avg_quality": 0.4656, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0218, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.5517, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.522, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.1645, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0761, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.3773, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.6205 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.001, "result": 0.6211 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.98, "result": 0.6087 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 0.8167 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0128, "result": 0.8272 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.993, "result": 0.8213 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9855, "result": 0.8094 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0, "result": 0.8094 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8094, "result": 0.8094, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0761, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.8094, "result": 0.8094 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8094 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.2153, "result": 1.0243 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.0243 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.0243, "result": 1.024, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 1.024, "result": 1.0313, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.031 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.031 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.031, "result": 1.031, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.35, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.453 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.2624, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 0.6213 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.001, "result": 0.6219 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.02, "result": 0.6344 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.6344 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0717, "result": 0.6799 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.6871 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0113, "result": 0.6948 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.047, "result": 0.7418 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.7418, "result": 0.7418, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0761, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.7418, "result": 0.7418 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7418 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1985, "result": 0.9405 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 0.9405 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.9405, "result": 0.941, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 0.941, "result": 0.9343, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.934 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.934 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.934, "result": 0.934, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.35, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.2 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2153, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1985, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.031, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.934, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0243, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9405, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.35, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.453, "final_away_lambda": 1.2 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0128, "attack_index": 0.786, "defense_concede_index": 1.328, "form_multiplier": 0.976, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.19, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.01, "team_ppg": 0.78, "opponent_ppg": 1.2 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0717, "attack_index": 0.997, "defense_concede_index": 1.178, "form_multiplier": 1.024, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.51, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.78, "team_ppg": 1.2, "opponent_ppg": 0.78 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Málaga vs Racing Club. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-1-4-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.024, Away 0.941). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.453, Away 1.200 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 0, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 0, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.453, "away_lambda": 1.2, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.024, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.941 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.35, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:31:43Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }