{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Tottenham", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261107", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1207, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.089, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.081, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2555, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1207 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.089 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.087 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.081 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0793 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0631, "0-1": 0.081, "0-2": 0.0545, "0-3": 0.0241, "0-4": 0.008, "0-5": 0.0021, "1-0": 0.089, "1-1": 0.1207, "1-2": 0.0793, "1-3": 0.035, "1-4": 0.0116, "1-5": 0.0031, "1-6": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0656, "2-1": 0.087, "2-2": 0.0577, "2-3": 0.0255, "2-4": 0.0085, "2-5": 0.0022, "3-0": 0.0318, "3-1": 0.0422, "3-2": 0.028, "3-3": 0.0124, "3-4": 0.0041, "3-5": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0116, "4-1": 0.0153, "4-2": 0.0102, "4-3": 0.0045, "4-4": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0034, "5-1": 0.0045, "5-2": 0.003, "5-3": 0.0013, "6-0": 0.0008, "6-1": 0.0011, "6-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4016, "draw": 0.2555, "away_win": 0.3429 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.526, "under_2_5_goals": 0.474, "btts_yes": 0.5642, "btts_no": 0.4358, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2655, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2334 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.91, "MCR": 6.89, "ATR": 6.78, "GK": 7.15 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.14, "MCR": 7.02, "ATR": 6.75, "GK": 6.94 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Leeds vs Tottenham. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 4 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Leeds 2W-1D-7L vs Tottenham over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Sandro Tonali will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.90, Away: 0.62. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.65, "home_lambda": 1.455, "away_lambda": 1.326, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 7, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 0.9643, "away_multiplier": 1.0357 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1207, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4016, "draw": 0.2555, "away_win": 0.3429 }, "favorite": "Leeds", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4016, "fair_spread": 0.129, "fair_total": 2.781, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.455, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.326, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5642, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2655, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2334, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.4212, "probability": 0.3437, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Richarlison (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.3358, "probability": 0.2852, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "James Justin (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.171, "probability": 0.1572, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Andy Robertson (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.2058, "probability": 0.186, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.781, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 1039, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.3, "possession_home_pct": 48.7, "possession_away_pct": 51.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Leeds", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4016, "script": "Leeds is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.13 goals and fair total 2.78.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Tottenham must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Leeds lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Leeds chance creation leans on Dominic Calvert-Lewin against Jan Paul van Hecke, Micky van de Ven in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Leeds: starters carry the main goal usage through Dominic Calvert-Lewin; bench watchlist: Jean-Mattéo Bahoya, Sean Longstaff, Nico Elvedi.", "Tottenham: starters carry the main goal usage through Richarlison; bench watchlist: Sávio, Destiny Udogie.", "Assist usage should flow through James Justin, Andy Robertson; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Leeds tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Tottenham is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Leeds.", "Tottenham wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Leeds": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "James Trafford": { "player_id": 980643, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 197, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0843, "rating": 7.1521, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 21, "accurate_long_balls": 8, "touches": 55, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 12, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.6605, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 13.9816, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1168, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Richarlison, Xavi Simons", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363902.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.9887 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363900.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { 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"match_date": "2026-10-18", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1233, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1048, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0891, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0757, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0644, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0547, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0465, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0395, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 13.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 19.5083, "accurateLongBalls": 7.5547, "possessionLostCtrl": 13.6793, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.3948, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.7452, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 2.2602 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.0231897830963135, "model_output": 3.0232, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0469 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0397 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0208 } ], "others": 0.0339, "total": 3.0232, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016179 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013711 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.011219 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.007028 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.006984 } ], "others_margin": 0.011274 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.08243950456380844, "model_output": 0.0824, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0513 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0238 } ], "others": 0.0503, "total": 0.0824, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.051279 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.030372 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.026649 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.024077 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.02376 } ], "others_margin": 0.050265 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.1520562171936035, "model_output": 7.1521, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0254 } ], "others": 0.0331, "total": 7.1521, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027303 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.027024 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.026602 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.025581 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025366 } ], "others_margin": 0.033071 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 13, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0221, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "saves": 3.09, "goals_prevented": 0.0843, "rating": 7.1521, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.7774, "accurate_pass": 26.1359, "total_long_balls": 20.9624, "accurate_long_balls": 7.7217, "touches": 54.554, "clearances": 1.6392, "ball_recovery": 12.141, "high_claims": 1.2379, "punches": 0.6605, "aerial_won": 0.367, "sweeper_actions": 2.3463, "sweeper_accurate": 2.3102, "saves_inside_box": 1.6036, "possession_lost": 13.9816, "duels_won": 0.6633, "duels_lost": 0.1546, "total_contest": 0.0343, "won_contest": 0.0343, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2036, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3724, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9394 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 38000000, "quality_factor": 0.7699, "boost_factor": 1.0221, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 13, "history_shrink": 0.2778, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0241)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0878, "goals_prevented": 0.0843, "rating": 7.1521, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.7774, "accurate_pass": 26.1359, "total_long_balls": 20.9624, "accurate_long_balls": 7.7217, "touches": 54.554, "clearances": 1.6392, "ball_recovery": 12.141, "high_claims": 1.2379, "punches": 0.6605, "aerial_won": 0.367, "sweeper_actions": 2.3463, "sweeper_accurate": 2.3102, "saves_inside_box": 1.6036, "possession_lost": 13.9816, "duels_won": 0.6633, "duels_lost": 0.1546, "total_contest": 0.0343, "won_contest": 0.0343, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1987, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3724, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9394 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0241, "history_matches": 13, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.0878, "goals_prevented": 0.0843, "rating": 7.1521, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.7774, "accurate_pass": 26.1359, "total_long_balls": 20.9624, "accurate_long_balls": 7.7217, "touches": 54.554, "clearances": 1.6392, "ball_recovery": 12.141, "high_claims": 1.2379, "punches": 0.6605, "aerial_won": 0.367, "sweeper_actions": 2.3463, "sweeper_accurate": 2.3102, "saves_inside_box": 1.6036, "possession_lost": 13.9816, "duels_won": 0.6633, "duels_lost": 0.1546, "total_contest": 0.0343, "won_contest": 0.0343, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1987, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3724, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9394 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0878, "goals_prevented": 0.0843, "rating": 7.1521, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.7774, "accurate_pass": 26.1359, "total_long_balls": 20.9624, "accurate_long_balls": 7.7217, "touches": 54.554, "clearances": 1.6392, "ball_recovery": 12.141, "high_claims": 1.2379, "punches": 0.6605, "aerial_won": 0.367, "sweeper_actions": 2.3463, "sweeper_accurate": 2.3102, "saves_inside_box": 1.6036, "possession_lost": 13.9816, "duels_won": 0.6633, "duels_lost": 0.1546, "total_contest": 0.0343, "won_contest": 0.0343, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1987, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3724, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9394, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1168, "shots_faced": 10.6, "expected_saves": 2.59, "high_pressure_saves": 0.89, "opponent_faced": "Richarlison, Xavi Simons", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Richarlison, Xavi Simons", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.1168 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.0878, "goals_prevented": 0.0843, "rating": 7.1521, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.7774, "accurate_pass": 26.1359, "total_long_balls": 20.9624, "accurate_long_balls": 7.7217, "touches": 54.554, "clearances": 1.6392, "ball_recovery": 12.141, "high_claims": 1.2379, "punches": 0.6605, "aerial_won": 0.367, "sweeper_actions": 2.3463, "sweeper_accurate": 2.3102, "saves_inside_box": 1.6036, "possession_lost": 13.9816, "duels_won": 0.6633, "duels_lost": 0.1546, "total_contest": 0.0343, "won_contest": 0.0343, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1987, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3724, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9394, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1168, "shots_faced": 10.6, "expected_saves": 2.59, "high_pressure_saves": 0.89, "opponent_faced": "Richarlison, Xavi Simons", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1774, xG scale 1.2358, xA scale 1.2732, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0878, "goals_prevented": 0.0843, "rating": 7.1521, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.7774, "accurate_pass": 26.1359, "total_long_balls": 20.9624, "accurate_long_balls": 7.7217, "touches": 54.554, "clearances": 1.6392, "ball_recovery": 12.141, "high_claims": 1.2379, "punches": 0.6605, "aerial_won": 0.367, "sweeper_actions": 2.3463, "sweeper_accurate": 2.3102, "saves_inside_box": 1.6036, "possession_lost": 13.9816, "duels_won": 0.6633, "duels_lost": 0.1546, "total_contest": 0.0343, "won_contest": 0.0343, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1987, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3724, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9394, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1168, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Richarlison, Xavi Simons", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.455, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1774, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7428, "team_expected_assists": 0.9458, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2358, "xa_scale": 1.2732, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 10.6, "after": 12.6 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.59, "after": 3.08 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.89, "after": 1.06 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0878, "goals_prevented": 0.0843, "rating": 7.1521, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.7774, "accurate_pass": 26.1359, "total_long_balls": 20.9624, "accurate_long_balls": 7.7217, "touches": 54.554, "clearances": 1.6392, "ball_recovery": 12.141, "high_claims": 1.2379, "punches": 0.6605, "aerial_won": 0.367, "sweeper_actions": 2.3463, "sweeper_accurate": 2.3102, "saves_inside_box": 1.6036, "possession_lost": 13.9816, "duels_won": 0.6633, "duels_lost": 0.1546, "total_contest": 0.0343, "won_contest": 0.0343, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1987, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3724, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9394, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1168, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Richarlison, Xavi Simons", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4716, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3911, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3911, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2499 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0878, "goals_prevented": 0.0843, "rating": 7.1521, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.7774, "accurate_pass": 26.1359, "total_long_balls": 20.9624, "accurate_long_balls": 7.7217, "touches": 54.554, "clearances": 1.6392, "ball_recovery": 12.141, "high_claims": 1.2379, "punches": 0.6605, "aerial_won": 0.367, "sweeper_actions": 2.3463, "sweeper_accurate": 2.3102, "saves_inside_box": 1.6036, "possession_lost": 13.9816, "duels_won": 0.6633, "duels_lost": 0.1546, 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"defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016762 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01255 } ], "others_margin": -0.041403 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8597763180732727, "model_output": 0.8598, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2248 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0477 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": 0.0443, "total": 0.8598, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.224768 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047668 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.025879 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.018233 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.017705 } ], "others_margin": 0.044275 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.840752124786377, "model_output": 6.8408, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0055, "total": 6.8408, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.039323 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024812 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019561 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.014457 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011541 } ], "others_margin": -0.005519 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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1.2335, "after": 1.2457 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.45, "after": 2.4401 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1047, "tackles": 2.0469, "tackles_won": 1.2457, "clearances": 3.2351, "aerial_won": 1.3713, "total_shots": 0.8649, "rating": 6.8408, "minutes": 87.87, "total_pass": 34.4771, "accurate_pass": 26.4937, "duels_won": 5.334, "total_long_balls": 4.6385, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6925, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5499, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8478, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6458, "crosses_total": 2.4401, "crosses_accurate": 0.4161, "touches": 55.3111, "possession_lost": 12.3914, "dispossessed": 0.1838, "duels_lost": 2.9067, "aerial_lost": 1.1592, "total_contest": 0.4331, "won_contest": 0.1777, "ball_recovery": 3.1925, "challenges_lost": 0.6953, "fouls": 0.6117, "fouls_drawn": 1.1041, "blocks": 0.5415, "goals": 0.1231, 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"duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mateus Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1047, "tackles": 2.0469, "tackles_won": 1.2457, "clearances": 3.2351, "aerial_won": 1.3713, "total_shots": 0.8649, "rating": 6.8408, "minutes": 87.87, "total_pass": 34.4771, "accurate_pass": 26.4937, "duels_won": 5.334, "total_long_balls": 4.6385, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6925, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5499, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8478, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6458, "crosses_total": 2.4401, "crosses_accurate": 0.4161, "touches": 55.3111, "possession_lost": 12.3914, "dispossessed": 0.1838, "duels_lost": 2.9067, "aerial_lost": 1.1592, "total_contest": 0.4331, "won_contest": 0.1777, "ball_recovery": 3.1925, "challenges_lost": 0.6953, "fouls": 0.6117, "fouls_drawn": 1.1041, "blocks": 0.5415, "goal_rate": 0.1231, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0708, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0593, "expected_assists": 0.1343, "shots_on_target": 0.2553, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "xgot": 0.1172, "ball_carries": 9.1121, "total_progression": 34.5386, "progressive_carries": 0.6203, "key_pass": 0.7719, "shots_off_target": 0.6096, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502, "opponent_faced": "Mateus Fernandes", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1774, xG scale 1.2358, xA scale 1.2732, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1047, "tackles": 2.0469, "tackles_won": 1.2457, "clearances": 3.2351, "aerial_won": 1.3713, "total_shots": 0.8649, "rating": 6.8408, "minutes": 87.87, "total_pass": 34.4771, "accurate_pass": 26.4937, "duels_won": 5.334, "total_long_balls": 4.6385, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6925, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5499, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8478, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6458, "crosses_total": 2.4401, "crosses_accurate": 0.4161, "touches": 55.3111, "possession_lost": 12.3914, "dispossessed": 0.1838, "duels_lost": 2.9067, "aerial_lost": 1.1592, "total_contest": 0.4331, "won_contest": 0.1777, "ball_recovery": 3.1925, "challenges_lost": 0.6953, "fouls": 0.6117, "fouls_drawn": 1.1041, "blocks": 0.5415, "goal_rate": 0.1231, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0708, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0733, "expected_assists": 0.171, "shots_on_target": 0.2553, "big_chances_created": 0.3024, "xgot": 0.1448, "ball_carries": 9.1121, "total_progression": 34.5386, "progressive_carries": 0.6203, "key_pass": 0.7719, "shots_off_target": 0.6096, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502, "opponent_faced": "Mateus Fernandes", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.455, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1774, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7428, "team_expected_assists": 0.9458, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2358, "xa_scale": 1.2732, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0593, "after": 0.0733 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1343, "after": 0.171 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1047, "tackles": 2.0469, "tackles_won": 1.2457, "clearances": 3.2351, "aerial_won": 1.3713, "total_shots": 0.8649, "rating": 6.8408, "minutes": 87.87, "total_pass": 34.4771, "accurate_pass": 26.4937, "duels_won": 5.334, "total_long_balls": 4.6385, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6925, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5499, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8478, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6458, "crosses_total": 2.4401, "crosses_accurate": 0.4161, "touches": 55.3111, "possession_lost": 12.3914, "dispossessed": 0.1838, "duels_lost": 2.9067, "aerial_lost": 1.1592, "total_contest": 0.4331, "won_contest": 0.1777, "ball_recovery": 3.1925, "challenges_lost": 0.6953, "fouls": 0.6117, "fouls_drawn": 1.1041, "blocks": 0.5415, "goal_rate": 0.1231, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0708, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0733, "expected_assists": 0.171, 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"contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0214 } ], "others": 0.0661, "total": 0.7185, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064218 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.031955 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.028758 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024817 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.021371 } ], "others_margin": 0.066168 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.110261917114258, "model_output": 7.1103, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0886 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0311, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1959, "tackles": 0.9692, "tackles_won": 0.5955, "clearances": 7.176, "aerial_won": 3.9521, "total_shots": 0.7409, "rating": 7.1103, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 66.8887, "accurate_pass": 56.3786, "duels_won": 6.913, "total_long_balls": 7.1079, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6192, "total_own_half_passes": 47.1212, "accurate_own_half_passes": 43.1235, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7675, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2551, "crosses_total": 0.0645, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 83.1772, "possession_lost": 11.1883, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 4.2038, "aerial_lost": 3.0007, "total_contest": 0.5101, "won_contest": 0.339, "ball_recovery": 3.4082, "challenges_lost": 0.3417, "fouls": 0.6258, "fouls_drawn": 0.9384, "blocks": 0.5051, "goals": 0.0, 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"importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2499 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1146 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0591 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0373 } ], "others": -0.1276, "total": 0.5851, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.249857 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114648 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.059124 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.040466 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.037275 } ], "others_margin": -0.127716 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7727, "expected_assists": 0.0719, "assists": 0.0828, "assist_rate": 0.0828, "expected_goals": 0.0386, "goals": 0.0475, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "shots_on_target": 0.1997, "total_shots": 0.6321, "rating": 6.8127, "minutes": 82.84, "total_pass": 25.3298, "accurate_pass": 18.8148, "duels_won": 5.0879, "total_long_balls": 2.5774, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0101, "total_own_half_passes": 13.0399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0716, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7432, "crosses_total": 3.4158, "crosses_accurate": 0.7027, "touches": 50.0847, "possession_lost": 16.5062, "dispossessed": 0.6422, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_won": 0.4332, "aerial_lost": 0.5796, "interceptions": 1.1438, "tackles_won": 0.8129, "tackles": 1.7254, "clearances": 1.5056, "total_contest": 1.6793, "won_contest": 0.9527, "challenges_lost": 0.4781, "fouls": 0.8675, "fouls_drawn": 1.9766, "blocks": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.1457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.012, "ball_carries": 10.2497, "total_progression": 52.5924, "progressive_carries": 1.3485, "shots_off_target": 0.4324 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7727, "expected_assists": 0.0719, "assists": 0.0828, "assist_rate": 0.0828, "expected_goals": 0.0386, "goals": 0.0475, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "shots_on_target": 0.1997, "total_shots": 0.6321, "rating": 6.8127, "minutes": 82.84, "total_pass": 25.3298, "accurate_pass": 18.8148, "duels_won": 5.0879, "total_long_balls": 2.5774, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0101, "total_own_half_passes": 13.0399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0716, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7432, "crosses_total": 3.4158, "crosses_accurate": 0.7027, "touches": 50.0847, "possession_lost": 16.5062, "dispossessed": 0.6422, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_won": 0.4332, "aerial_lost": 0.5796, "interceptions": 1.1438, "tackles_won": 0.8129, "tackles": 1.7254, "clearances": 1.5056, "total_contest": 1.6793, "won_contest": 0.9527, "challenges_lost": 0.4781, "fouls": 0.8675, "fouls_drawn": 1.9766, "blocks": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.1457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.012, "ball_carries": 10.2497, "total_progression": 52.5924, "progressive_carries": 1.3485, "shots_off_target": 0.4324 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7727, "expected_assists": 0.0719, "assists": 0.0828, "assist_rate": 0.0828, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "goals": 0.0436, "goal_rate": 0.0436, "shots_on_target": 0.1832, "total_shots": 0.5798, "rating": 6.8127, "minutes": 82.84, "total_pass": 25.3298, "accurate_pass": 18.8148, "duels_won": 5.0879, "total_long_balls": 2.5774, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0101, "total_own_half_passes": 13.0399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0716, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7432, "crosses_total": 3.4158, "crosses_accurate": 0.7027, "touches": 50.0847, "possession_lost": 16.5062, "dispossessed": 0.6422, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5796, "interceptions": 1.1438, "tackles_won": 0.8129, "tackles": 1.7254, "clearances": 1.5056, "total_contest": 1.6793, "won_contest": 0.9527, "challenges_lost": 0.4781, "fouls": 0.8675, "fouls_drawn": 1.9766, "blocks": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.1457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.011, "ball_carries": 10.2497, "total_progression": 52.5924, "progressive_carries": 1.3485, "shots_off_target": 0.3966, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9173, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9173, "skill_edge": -0.0322, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.7091, "defender_skill": 0.7808, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Archie Gray", "market_value": 34000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7808 } ], "xg_override": 0.0354 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4332, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6321, "after": 0.5798 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4324, "after": 0.3966 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1997, "after": 0.1832 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7727, "expected_assists": 0.0719, "assist_rate": 0.0828, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "goal_rate": 0.0436, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1832, "total_shots": 0.5798, "rating": 6.8127, "minutes": 82.84, "total_pass": 25.3298, "accurate_pass": 18.8148, "duels_won": 5.0879, "total_long_balls": 2.5774, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0101, "total_own_half_passes": 13.0399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0716, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7432, "crosses_total": 3.4158, "crosses_accurate": 0.7027, "touches": 50.0847, "possession_lost": 16.5062, "dispossessed": 0.6422, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5796, "interceptions": 1.1438, "tackles_won": 0.8129, "tackles": 1.7254, "clearances": 1.5056, "total_contest": 1.6793, "won_contest": 0.9527, "challenges_lost": 0.4781, "fouls": 0.8675, "fouls_drawn": 1.9766, "blocks": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.1457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.011, "ball_carries": 10.2497, "total_progression": 52.5924, "progressive_carries": 1.3485, "shots_off_target": 0.3966, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9173, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1774, xG scale 1.2358, xA scale 1.2732, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7727, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "assist_rate": 0.0828, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.0436, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1832, "total_shots": 0.5798, "rating": 6.8127, "minutes": 82.84, "total_pass": 25.3298, "accurate_pass": 18.8148, "duels_won": 5.0879, "total_long_balls": 2.5774, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0101, "total_own_half_passes": 13.0399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0716, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7432, "crosses_total": 3.4158, "crosses_accurate": 0.7027, "touches": 50.0847, "possession_lost": 16.5062, "dispossessed": 0.6422, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5796, "interceptions": 1.1438, "tackles_won": 0.8129, "tackles": 1.7254, "clearances": 1.5056, "total_contest": 1.6793, "won_contest": 0.9527, "challenges_lost": 0.4781, "fouls": 0.8675, "fouls_drawn": 1.9766, "blocks": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.1457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 10.2497, "total_progression": 52.5924, "progressive_carries": 1.3485, "shots_off_target": 0.3966, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9173, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.096, "creation_factor": 1.0894 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.455, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1774, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7428, "team_expected_assists": 0.9458, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2358, "xa_scale": 1.2732, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0354, "after": 0.0437 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0719, "after": 0.0915 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7727, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "assist_rate": 0.0828, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.0436, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1832, "total_shots": 0.5798, "rating": 6.8127, "minutes": 82.84, "total_pass": 25.3298, "accurate_pass": 18.8148, "duels_won": 5.0879, "total_long_balls": 2.5774, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0101, "total_own_half_passes": 13.0399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0716, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7432, "crosses_total": 3.4158, "crosses_accurate": 0.7027, "touches": 50.0847, "possession_lost": 16.5062, "dispossessed": 0.6422, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5796, "interceptions": 1.1438, "tackles_won": 0.8129, "tackles": 1.7254, "clearances": 1.5056, "total_contest": 1.6793, "won_contest": 0.9527, "challenges_lost": 0.4781, "fouls": 0.8675, "fouls_drawn": 1.9766, "blocks": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.1457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 10.2497, "total_progression": 52.5924, "progressive_carries": 1.3485, "shots_off_target": 0.3966, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9173, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.096, "creation_factor": 1.0894, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2292, "fifa_rank": 1099.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7727, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "assist_rate": 0.0828, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.0436, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1832, "total_shots": 0.5798, "rating": 6.8127, "minutes": 82.84, "total_pass": 25.3298, "accurate_pass": 18.8148, "duels_won": 5.0879, "total_long_balls": 2.5774, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0101, "total_own_half_passes": 13.0399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0716, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7432, "crosses_total": 3.4158, "crosses_accurate": 0.7027, "touches": 50.0847, "possession_lost": 16.5062, "dispossessed": 0.6422, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5796, "interceptions": 1.1438, "tackles_won": 0.8129, "tackles": 1.7254, "clearances": 1.5056, "total_contest": 1.6793, "won_contest": 0.9527, "challenges_lost": 0.4781, "fouls": 0.8675, "fouls_drawn": 1.9766, "blocks": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.1457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 10.2497, "total_progression": 52.5924, "progressive_carries": 1.3485, "shots_off_target": 0.3966, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9173, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0428, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.096, "creation_factor": 1.0894, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0436, "scorer_weight": 0.0479, "squad_weight_total": 1.4716, "weight_share": 0.0325, "finishing_factor": 1.096, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3911, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3911, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2499 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7727, "expected_assists": 0.0915, "assist_rate": 0.0828, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.0436, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1832, "total_shots": 0.5798, "rating": 6.8127, "minutes": 82.84, "total_pass": 25.3298, "accurate_pass": 18.8148, "duels_won": 5.0879, "total_long_balls": 2.5774, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0101, "total_own_half_passes": 13.0399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0716, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7432, "crosses_total": 3.4158, "crosses_accurate": 0.7027, "touches": 50.0847, "possession_lost": 16.5062, "dispossessed": 0.6422, "duels_lost": 3.2942, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5796, "interceptions": 1.1438, "tackles_won": 0.8129, "tackles": 1.7254, "clearances": 1.5056, "total_contest": 1.6793, "won_contest": 0.9527, "challenges_lost": 0.4781, "fouls": 0.8675, "fouls_drawn": 1.9766, "blocks": 0.0503, "big_chances_created": 0.1457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 10.2497, "total_progression": 52.5924, "progressive_carries": 1.3485, "shots_off_target": 0.3966, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9173, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0428, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0874, "finishing_factor": 1.096, "creation_factor": 1.0894, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0874, "assist_rate": 0.0828, "provider_weight": 0.0997, "squad_weight_total": 0.8556, "weight_share": 0.1165, "creation_factor": 1.0894, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "James Justin", "weight": 0.1368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1368, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1248, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jayden Bogle": { "player_id": 929132, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 178, "market_value": 19200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1418, "assist_rate": 0.0921, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1571, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8648, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 13.1356, "dispossessed": 1.5404, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1969, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 52, 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0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1542 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0654 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0727, "total": 0.9882, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.154239 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065439 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024764 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.018934 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018746 } ], "others_margin": -0.072633 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.856287479400635, "model_output": 6.8563, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": 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7.9349, "dispossessed": 0.5025, "duels_lost": 3.3942, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.4813, "interceptions": 0.7613, "tackles_won": 0.9571, "tackles": 2.0574, "clearances": 0.9527, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.3438, "challenges_lost": 0.7282, "fouls": 1.4355, "fouls_drawn": 0.6321, "blocks": 0.2635, "big_chances_created": 0.0746, "big_chances_missed": 0.0768, "xgot": 0.0325, "ball_carries": 12.7337, "total_progression": 12.3729, "progressive_carries": 0.2856, "shots_off_target": 0.6932, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9599, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marcos Senesi", "opponent_faced": "Marcos Senesi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Marcos Senesi", 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2067, "combined_rank_score": 786.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 717.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6857, "sofascore_appearances": 35.0, "fifa_rank": 855.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7672, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego Antonio Sabando Sanhueza", "ranking": 2062 }, { "player_name": "Lee Kyu-Min", "ranking": 2063 }, { "player_name": "Salem Al Dawsari", "ranking": 2064 }, { "player_name": "Iñaki Williams", "ranking": 2065 }, { "player_name": "Youssef En-Nesyri", "ranking": 2066 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kim Jong-Seok", "ranking": 2068 }, { "player_name": "Ariel Cáceres", "ranking": 2069 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Zelarayán", "ranking": 2070 }, { "player_name": "Šime Gržan", "ranking": 2071 }, { "player_name": "Kaku", "ranking": 2072 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0143, "total": 0.0315, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.200629 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.152386 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.139575 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.137227 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.121069 } ], "others_margin": -0.374117 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5769636034965515, "model_output": 0.577, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1668 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0596 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0518 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0442 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0406 } ], "others": -0.0853, "total": 0.577, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.216008 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07197 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.067045 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.061034 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.059569 } ], "others_margin": -0.137781 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.767246246337891, "model_output": 6.7672, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.04, "total": 6.7672, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052632 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.038022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019341 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.016635 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01657 } ], "others_margin": -0.040105 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3979, "goals": 0.3644, "goal_rate": 0.3644, "shots_on_target": 0.9387, "total_shots": 2.1433, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.5803, "rating": 6.7672, "minutes": 86.42, "total_pass": 16.2796, "accurate_pass": 8.7748, "duels_won": 5.9973, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1281, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8512, "crosses_total": 0.26, "crosses_accurate": 0.0013, "touches": 29.9468, "possession_lost": 13.5964, "dispossessed": 0.6912, "duels_lost": 8.2319, "aerial_lost": 4.7942, "total_contest": 1.6414, "won_contest": 0.4253, "ball_recovery": 1.6302, "challenges_lost": 0.1063, "fouls": 1.8453, "fouls_drawn": 1.2147, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "interceptions": 0.0662, "tackles_won": 0.0099, "tackles": 0.1244, "clearances": 1.2172, "blocks": 0.0931, "big_chances_created": 0.0027, "big_chances_missed": 0.6078, "xgot": 0.4689, "offsides": 0.645, "ball_carries": 6.6076, "total_progression": 2.9819, "progressive_carries": 0.6467, "shots_off_target": 1.2045 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0058, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3979, "goals": 0.3654, "goal_rate": 0.3654, "shots_on_target": 0.9346, "total_shots": 2.1413, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.5803, "rating": 6.7672, "minutes": 86.42, "total_pass": 16.2796, "accurate_pass": 8.7748, "duels_won": 5.9973, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1281, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8512, "crosses_total": 0.2577, "crosses_accurate": 0.0013, "touches": 29.9468, "possession_lost": 13.5964, "dispossessed": 0.6912, "duels_lost": 8.2319, "aerial_lost": 4.7942, "total_contest": 1.6414, "won_contest": 0.4253, "ball_recovery": 1.6302, "challenges_lost": 0.1063, "fouls": 1.846, "fouls_drawn": 1.2082, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "interceptions": 0.0656, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1244, "clearances": 1.2172, "blocks": 0.0931, "big_chances_created": 0.0027, "big_chances_missed": 0.6078, "xgot": 0.4689, "offsides": 0.652, "ball_carries": 6.6076, "total_progression": 2.9819, "progressive_carries": 0.6467, "shots_off_target": 1.2045 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9602, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.645, "after": 0.652 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2147, 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"name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0239 } ], "others": 0.035, "total": 0.7576, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.231732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.065722 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.052511 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.037151 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.032573 } ], "others_margin": 0.047248 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.82309627532959, "model_output": 6.8231, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0566 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0324, "total": 6.8231, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056589 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014661 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01345 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011892 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009364 } ], "others_margin": -0.03241 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1829, "goals": 0.2294, "goal_rate": 0.2294, "shots_on_target": 0.6207, "total_shots": 1.7681, "expected_assists": 0.073, "key_pass": 0.7644, "rating": 6.8231, "minutes": 71.98, "total_pass": 16.0505, "accurate_pass": 12.722, "duels_won": 3.7949, "total_long_balls": 1.5166, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1485, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7469, "crosses_total": 1.9211, "crosses_accurate": 0.294, "touches": 31.8848, "possession_lost": 11.5583, "dispossessed": 1.0485, "duels_lost": 5.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.9608, "total_contest": 4.3296, "won_contest": 1.6833, "ball_recovery": 2.3121, "challenges_lost": 0.4688, "fouls": 0.4534, "fouls_drawn": 0.6387, "assists": 0.042, "assist_rate": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.183, "tackles_won": 0.697, "tackles": 0.8076, "clearances": 0.492, "blocks": 0.0357, "big_chances_created": 0.0973, "big_chances_missed": 0.1055, "xgot": 0.1974, "offsides": 0.1309, "ball_carries": 12.1895, "total_progression": 65.5341, "progressive_carries": 3.3222, "shots_off_target": 1.1473 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 35000000, "quality_factor": 0.752, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0053)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1829, "goals": 0.2282, "goal_rate": 0.2282, "shots_on_target": 0.6174, "total_shots": 1.767, "expected_assists": 0.073, "key_pass": 0.7644, "rating": 6.8231, "minutes": 71.98, "total_pass": 16.0505, "accurate_pass": 12.722, "duels_won": 3.7949, "total_long_balls": 1.5166, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1485, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7469, "crosses_total": 1.9321, "crosses_accurate": 0.294, "touches": 31.8848, "possession_lost": 11.5583, "dispossessed": 1.0485, "duels_lost": 5.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.9608, "total_contest": 4.3296, "won_contest": 1.6833, "ball_recovery": 2.3121, "challenges_lost": 0.4688, "fouls": 0.4552, "fouls_drawn": 0.6396, "assists": 0.0418, "assist_rate": 0.0418, "interceptions": 0.1863, "tackles_won": 0.706, "tackles": 0.8076, "clearances": 0.492, "blocks": 0.0357, "big_chances_created": 0.0973, "big_chances_missed": 0.1055, "xgot": 0.1974, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 12.1895, "total_progression": 65.5341, "progressive_carries": 3.3222, "shots_off_target": 1.1473 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0053, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7998, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.9211, "after": 1.9321 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.697, "after": 0.706 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1829, "goals": 0.2282, "goal_rate": 0.2282, "shots_on_target": 0.6174, "total_shots": 1.767, "expected_assists": 0.073, "key_pass": 0.7644, "rating": 6.8231, "minutes": 71.98, "total_pass": 16.0505, "accurate_pass": 12.722, "duels_won": 3.7949, "total_long_balls": 1.5166, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1485, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7469, "crosses_total": 1.9321, "crosses_accurate": 0.294, "touches": 31.8848, "possession_lost": 11.5583, "dispossessed": 1.0485, "duels_lost": 5.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.9608, "total_contest": 4.3296, "won_contest": 1.6833, "ball_recovery": 2.3121, "challenges_lost": 0.4688, "fouls": 0.4552, "fouls_drawn": 0.6396, "assists": 0.0418, "assist_rate": 0.0418, "interceptions": 0.1863, "tackles_won": 0.706, "tackles": 0.8076, "clearances": 0.492, "blocks": 0.0357, "big_chances_created": 0.0973, "big_chances_missed": 0.1055, "xgot": 0.1974, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 12.1895, "total_progression": 65.5341, "progressive_carries": 3.3222, "shots_off_target": 1.1473 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1697, "goals": 0.2118, "goal_rate": 0.2118, "shots_on_target": 0.573, "total_shots": 1.64, "expected_assists": 0.073, "key_pass": 0.7644, "rating": 6.8231, "minutes": 71.98, "total_pass": 16.0505, "accurate_pass": 12.722, "duels_won": 3.7949, "total_long_balls": 1.5166, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1485, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7469, "crosses_total": 1.9321, "crosses_accurate": 0.294, "touches": 31.8848, "possession_lost": 11.5583, "dispossessed": 1.0485, "duels_lost": 5.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.9608, "total_contest": 4.3296, "won_contest": 1.6833, "ball_recovery": 2.3121, "challenges_lost": 0.4688, "fouls": 0.4552, "fouls_drawn": 0.6396, "assists": 0.0418, "assist_rate": 0.0418, "interceptions": 0.1863, "tackles_won": 0.706, "tackles": 0.8076, "clearances": 0.492, "blocks": 0.0357, "big_chances_created": 0.0973, "big_chances_missed": 0.0979, "xgot": 0.1832, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 12.1895, "total_progression": 65.5341, "progressive_carries": 3.3222, "shots_off_target": 1.0648, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9281, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9281, "skill_edge": -0.0369, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.752, "defender_skill": 0.8339, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Archie Gray", "market_value": 34000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7808 }, { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "market_value": 65000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.887 } ], "xg_override": 0.1697 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.767, "after": 1.64 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1473, "after": 1.0648 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6174, "after": 0.573 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2282, "after": 0.2118 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1974, "after": 0.1832 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1829, "after": 0.1697 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1055, "after": 0.0979 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1697, "goal_rate": 0.2118, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.573, "total_shots": 1.64, "expected_assists": 0.073, "key_pass": 0.7644, "rating": 6.8231, "minutes": 71.98, "total_pass": 16.0505, "accurate_pass": 12.722, "duels_won": 3.7949, "total_long_balls": 1.5166, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1485, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7469, "crosses_total": 1.9321, "crosses_accurate": 0.294, "touches": 31.8848, "possession_lost": 11.5583, "dispossessed": 1.0485, "duels_lost": 5.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.9608, "total_contest": 4.3296, "won_contest": 1.6833, "ball_recovery": 2.3121, "challenges_lost": 0.4688, "fouls": 0.4552, "fouls_drawn": 0.6396, "assist_rate": 0.0418, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1863, "tackles_won": 0.706, "tackles": 0.8076, "clearances": 0.492, "blocks": 0.0357, "big_chances_created": 0.0973, "big_chances_missed": 0.0979, "xgot": 0.1832, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 12.1895, "total_progression": 65.5341, "progressive_carries": 3.3222, "shots_off_target": 1.0648, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9281, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1774, xG scale 1.2358, xA scale 1.2732, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2097, "goal_rate": 0.2118, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.573, "total_shots": 1.64, "expected_assists": 0.0929, "key_pass": 0.7644, "rating": 6.8231, "minutes": 71.98, "total_pass": 16.0505, "accurate_pass": 12.722, "duels_won": 3.7949, "total_long_balls": 1.5166, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1485, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7469, "crosses_total": 1.9321, "crosses_accurate": 0.294, "touches": 31.8848, "possession_lost": 11.5583, "dispossessed": 1.0485, "duels_lost": 5.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.9608, "total_contest": 4.3296, "won_contest": 1.6833, "ball_recovery": 2.3121, "challenges_lost": 0.4688, "fouls": 0.4552, "fouls_drawn": 0.6396, "assist_rate": 0.0418, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1863, "tackles_won": 0.706, "tackles": 0.8076, "clearances": 0.492, "blocks": 0.0357, "big_chances_created": 0.0973, "big_chances_missed": 0.0979, "xgot": 0.2264, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 12.1895, "total_progression": 65.5341, "progressive_carries": 3.3222, "shots_off_target": 1.0648, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9281, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1916, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.455, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1774, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7428, "team_expected_assists": 0.9458, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2358, "xa_scale": 1.2732, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1697, "after": 0.2097 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.073, "after": 0.0929 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2097, "goal_rate": 0.2118, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.573, "total_shots": 1.64, "expected_assists": 0.0929, "key_pass": 0.7644, "rating": 6.8231, "minutes": 71.98, "total_pass": 16.0505, "accurate_pass": 12.722, "duels_won": 3.7949, "total_long_balls": 1.5166, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1485, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7469, "crosses_total": 1.9321, "crosses_accurate": 0.294, "touches": 31.8848, "possession_lost": 11.5583, "dispossessed": 1.0485, "duels_lost": 5.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.9608, "total_contest": 4.3296, "won_contest": 1.6833, "ball_recovery": 2.3121, "challenges_lost": 0.4688, "fouls": 0.4552, "fouls_drawn": 0.6396, "assist_rate": 0.0418, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1863, "tackles_won": 0.706, "tackles": 0.8076, "clearances": 0.492, "blocks": 0.0357, "big_chances_created": 0.0973, "big_chances_missed": 0.0979, "xgot": 0.2264, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 12.1895, "total_progression": 65.5341, "progressive_carries": 3.3222, "shots_off_target": 1.0648, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9281, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1916, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2522, "fifa_rank": 1421.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2097, "goal_rate": 0.2118, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.573, "total_shots": 1.64, "expected_assists": 0.0929, "key_pass": 0.7644, "rating": 6.8231, "minutes": 71.98, "total_pass": 16.0505, "accurate_pass": 12.722, "duels_won": 3.7949, "total_long_balls": 1.5166, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1485, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7469, "crosses_total": 1.9321, "crosses_accurate": 0.294, "touches": 31.8848, "possession_lost": 11.5583, "dispossessed": 1.0485, "duels_lost": 5.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.9608, "total_contest": 4.3296, "won_contest": 1.6833, "ball_recovery": 2.3121, "challenges_lost": 0.4688, "fouls": 0.4552, "fouls_drawn": 0.6396, "assist_rate": 0.0418, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1863, "tackles_won": 0.706, "tackles": 0.8076, "clearances": 0.492, "blocks": 0.0357, "big_chances_created": 0.0973, "big_chances_missed": 0.0979, "xgot": 0.2264, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 12.1895, "total_progression": 65.5341, "progressive_carries": 3.3222, "shots_off_target": 1.0648, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9281, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1892, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1916, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1892, "goal_rate": 0.2118, "scorer_weight": 0.2499, "squad_weight_total": 1.4716, "weight_share": 0.1698, "finishing_factor": 1.1916, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3911, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3911, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2499 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2097, "goal_rate": 0.2118, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.573, "total_shots": 1.64, "expected_assists": 0.0929, "key_pass": 0.7644, "rating": 6.8231, "minutes": 71.98, "total_pass": 16.0505, "accurate_pass": 12.722, "duels_won": 3.7949, "total_long_balls": 1.5166, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1485, "total_opp_half_passes": 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0.061543043702840805, "model_output": 0.0615, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1287 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0092, "total": 0.0615, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.228303 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.096152 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.082737 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.066536 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"touches_p90", "margin": -0.043535 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.037749 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.032617 } ], "others_margin": -0.106838 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.745912551879883, "model_output": 6.7459, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0331, "total": 6.7459, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050605 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015165 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014255 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.007829 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.007557 } ], "others_margin": -0.033221 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.446)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1691, "goals": 0.2073, "goal_rate": 0.2073, "shots_on_target": 0.5524, "total_shots": 1.3902, "expected_assists": 0.0614, "key_pass": 0.7159, "rating": 6.7459, "minutes": 78.26, "total_pass": 14.4846, "accurate_pass": 11.6316, "duels_won": 4.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.2463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2488, "crosses_total": 0.5722, "crosses_accurate": 0.1017, "touches": 31.7675, "possession_lost": 9.4038, "dispossessed": 1.8837, "duels_lost": 6.4467, "aerial_lost": 1.606, "total_contest": 2.5174, "won_contest": 1.1797, "ball_recovery": 3.5116, "challenges_lost": 0.7232, "fouls": 0.8962, "fouls_drawn": 1.7971, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4831, "tackles_won": 0.8793, "tackles": 1.2933, "clearances": 1.3548, "blocks": 0.1439, "big_chances_created": 0.0346, "big_chances_missed": 0.3987, "xgot": 0.2715, "offsides": 0.2051, "ball_carries": 8.6898, "total_progression": 28.0218, "progressive_carries": 1.2247, "shots_off_target": 0.8378 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3700000, "quality_factor": 0.4461, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1691, "goals": 0.2073, "goal_rate": 0.2073, "shots_on_target": 0.5524, "total_shots": 1.3902, "expected_assists": 0.0614, "key_pass": 0.7159, "rating": 6.7459, "minutes": 78.26, "total_pass": 14.4846, "accurate_pass": 11.6316, "duels_won": 4.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.2463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2488, 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0.0614, "key_pass": 0.7159, "rating": 6.7459, "minutes": 78.26, "total_pass": 14.4846, "accurate_pass": 11.6316, "duels_won": 4.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.2463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2488, "crosses_total": 0.5722, "crosses_accurate": 0.1017, "touches": 31.7675, "possession_lost": 9.4038, "dispossessed": 1.8837, "duels_lost": 6.4467, "aerial_lost": 1.606, "total_contest": 2.5174, "won_contest": 1.1797, "ball_recovery": 3.5116, "challenges_lost": 0.7232, "fouls": 0.8962, "fouls_drawn": 1.7971, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4831, "tackles_won": 0.8793, "tackles": 1.2933, "clearances": 1.3548, "blocks": 0.1439, "big_chances_created": 0.0346, "big_chances_missed": 0.2777, "xgot": 0.1891, "offsides": 0.2051, "ball_carries": 8.6898, "total_progression": 28.0218, "progressive_carries": 1.2247, "shots_off_target": 0.5834, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6964, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.6964, "skill_edge": -0.1745, "height_edge": -0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.4461, "defender_skill": 0.8339, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Archie Gray", "market_value": 34000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7808 }, { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "market_value": 65000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.887 } ], "xg_override": 0.1178 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3902, "after": 0.9681 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8378, "after": 0.5834 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5524, "after": 0.3847 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3987, "after": 0.2777 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2715, "after": 0.1891 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2073, "after": 0.1444 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1691, "after": 0.1178 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1178, "goal_rate": 0.1444, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3847, "total_shots": 0.9681, "expected_assists": 0.0614, "key_pass": 0.7159, "rating": 6.7459, "minutes": 78.26, "total_pass": 14.4846, "accurate_pass": 11.6316, "duels_won": 4.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.2463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2488, "crosses_total": 0.5722, "crosses_accurate": 0.1017, "touches": 31.7675, "possession_lost": 9.4038, "dispossessed": 1.8837, "duels_lost": 6.4467, "aerial_lost": 1.606, "total_contest": 2.5174, "won_contest": 1.1797, "ball_recovery": 3.5116, "challenges_lost": 0.7232, "fouls": 0.8962, "fouls_drawn": 1.7971, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4831, "tackles_won": 0.8793, "tackles": 1.2933, "clearances": 1.3548, "blocks": 0.1439, "big_chances_created": 0.0346, "big_chances_missed": 0.2777, "xgot": 0.1891, "offsides": 0.2051, "ball_carries": 8.6898, "total_progression": 28.0218, "progressive_carries": 1.2247, "shots_off_target": 0.5834, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6964, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1774, xG scale 1.2358, xA scale 1.2732, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1456, "goal_rate": 0.1444, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3847, "total_shots": 0.9681, "expected_assists": 0.0782, "key_pass": 0.7159, "rating": 6.7459, "minutes": 78.26, "total_pass": 14.4846, "accurate_pass": 11.6316, "duels_won": 4.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.2463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2488, "crosses_total": 0.5722, "crosses_accurate": 0.1017, "touches": 31.7675, "possession_lost": 9.4038, "dispossessed": 1.8837, "duels_lost": 6.4467, "aerial_lost": 1.606, "total_contest": 2.5174, "won_contest": 1.1797, "ball_recovery": 3.5116, "challenges_lost": 0.7232, "fouls": 0.8962, "fouls_drawn": 1.7971, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4831, "tackles_won": 0.8793, "tackles": 1.2933, "clearances": 1.3548, "blocks": 0.1439, "big_chances_created": 0.0346, "big_chances_missed": 0.2777, "xgot": 0.2337, "offsides": 0.2051, "ball_carries": 8.6898, "total_progression": 28.0218, "progressive_carries": 1.2247, "shots_off_target": 0.5834, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6964, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1585, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.455, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1774, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7428, "team_expected_assists": 0.9458, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2358, "xa_scale": 1.2732, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1178, "after": 0.1456 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0614, "after": 0.0782 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1456, "goal_rate": 0.1444, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3847, "total_shots": 0.9681, "expected_assists": 0.0782, "key_pass": 0.7159, "rating": 6.7459, "minutes": 78.26, "total_pass": 14.4846, "accurate_pass": 11.6316, "duels_won": 4.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.2463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2488, "crosses_total": 0.5722, "crosses_accurate": 0.1017, "touches": 31.7675, "possession_lost": 9.4038, "dispossessed": 1.8837, "duels_lost": 6.4467, "aerial_lost": 1.606, "total_contest": 2.5174, "won_contest": 1.1797, "ball_recovery": 3.5116, "challenges_lost": 0.7232, "fouls": 0.8962, "fouls_drawn": 1.7971, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4831, "tackles_won": 0.8793, "tackles": 1.2933, "clearances": 1.3548, "blocks": 0.1439, "big_chances_created": 0.0346, "big_chances_missed": 0.2777, 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3957.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1456, "goal_rate": 0.1444, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3847, "total_shots": 0.9681, "expected_assists": 0.0782, "key_pass": 0.7159, "rating": 6.7459, "minutes": 78.26, "total_pass": 14.4846, "accurate_pass": 11.6316, "duels_won": 4.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.2463, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2488, "crosses_total": 0.5722, "crosses_accurate": 0.1017, "touches": 31.7675, "possession_lost": 9.4038, "dispossessed": 1.8837, "duels_lost": 6.4467, "aerial_lost": 1.606, "total_contest": 2.5174, "won_contest": 1.1797, "ball_recovery": 3.5116, "challenges_lost": 0.7232, "fouls": 0.8962, "fouls_drawn": 1.7971, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2043 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0719 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0673 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0671 } ], "others": 0.342, "total": 1.3429, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.841715 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.297247 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.086594 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.074777 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.069419 } ], "others_margin": 0.293912 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.348, "model_output": 0.2394, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2495 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": 0.0108, "total": 0.2394, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.249546 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018666 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.016942 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015298 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.013956 } ], "others_margin": 0.010725 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.815428733825684, "model_output": 6.8154, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": 0.0303, "total": 6.8154, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.025478 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021899 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012461 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.012291 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009881 } ], "others_margin": 0.03028 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0048, quality 0.616)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5188, "tackles": 0.4763, "tackles_won": 0.246, "clearances": 2.0844, "aerial_won": 1.3493, "total_shots": 0.3497, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.2, "total_pass": 10.0876, "accurate_pass": 8.6606, "duels_won": 2.0358, "total_long_balls": 1.3409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3896, "total_own_half_passes": 6.378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9163, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7443, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3553, "possession_lost": 1.5343, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3565, "aerial_lost": 0.9965, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8878, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.36, "fouls_drawn": 0.1263, "blocks": 0.242, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "shots_on_target": 0.3497, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0547, "ball_carries": 3.1561, "total_progression": 3.9145, "progressive_carries": 0.1957, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18500000, "quality_factor": 0.6161, "boost_factor": 1.0048, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0093)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5186, "tackles": 0.4763, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "clearances": 2.0844, "aerial_won": 1.3493, "total_shots": 0.3495, "rating": 6.8154, "minutes": 22.2, "total_pass": 10.0876, "accurate_pass": 8.6606, "duels_won": 2.0358, "total_long_balls": 1.3409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3896, "total_own_half_passes": 6.378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9163, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7096, 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"name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0155 } ], "others": -0.0618, "total": 0.2635, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.708386 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.086558 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.066281 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.050534 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.046693 } ], "others_margin": -0.210678 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.95033860206604, "model_output": 1.9503, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8207 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1619 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0508 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0234 } ], "others": 0.0333, "total": 0.8211, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.914323 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.258421 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.067379 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.06471 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.029246 } ], "others_margin": 0.041392 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3232, "model_output": 0.1624, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2251 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0587, "total": 0.1624, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.225055 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018662 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013246 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010969 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.007916 } ], "others_margin": -0.058829 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.772189617156982, "model_output": 6.7722, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0279, "total": 6.7722, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.03021 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.025822 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.025282 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.020078 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.00831 } ], "others_margin": -0.027874 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.534)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3923, "tackles": 0.4668, "tackles_won": 0.2644, "clearances": 1.9574, "aerial_won": 0.8241, "total_shots": 0.3244, "rating": 6.7722, "minutes": 30.67, "total_pass": 52.6635, "accurate_pass": 47.1707, "duels_won": 3.7448, "total_long_balls": 3.8114, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9657, "total_own_half_passes": 33.5767, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.8856, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.0868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2851, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.1672, "possession_lost": 6.1714, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 3.4334, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.6818, "won_contest": 0.5982, "ball_recovery": 3.5305, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.4799, "fouls_drawn": 0.1671, "blocks": 0.7739, "goals": 0.0, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 19.0868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2851, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.1672, "possession_lost": 6.1714, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 3.4334, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.6818, "won_contest": 0.5982, "ball_recovery": 3.5305, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.4747, "fouls_drawn": 0.1776, "blocks": 0.7739, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "shots_on_target": 0.3209, "big_chances_created": 0.1966, "xgot": 0.1076, "ball_carries": 24.0003, "total_progression": 97.352, "progressive_carries": 1.2454, "key_pass": 0.1966, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3408, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.1671, "after": 0.1776 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"assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0455, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "big_chances_created": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.132, "ball_carries": 29.4467, "total_progression": 119.4443, "progressive_carries": 1.528, "key_pass": 0.2412, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.61, "bench_expected_minutes": 37.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 37.63, "projection_minutes": 30.67, "minutes_scale": 1.2269, "appearance_probability": 0.61 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4837, "tackles": 0.5727, "tackles_won": 0.3208, "clearances": 2.4016, "aerial_won": 1.0111, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7722, "minutes": 37.63, "total_pass": 64.6145, "accurate_pass": 57.8752, "duels_won": 4.5946, "total_long_balls": 4.6763, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4118, "total_own_half_passes": 41.1963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.1215, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4182, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7538, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.5018, "possession_lost": 7.5719, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 4.2125, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.8365, "won_contest": 0.734, "ball_recovery": 4.3317, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.5824, "fouls_drawn": 0.2179, "blocks": 0.9495, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0455, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "big_chances_created": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.132, "ball_carries": 29.4467, "total_progression": 119.4443, "progressive_carries": 1.528, "key_pass": 0.2412, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.61, "bench_expected_minutes": 37.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4837, "tackles": 0.5727, "tackles_won": 0.3208, "clearances": 2.4016, "aerial_won": 1.0111, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7722, "minutes": 37.63, "total_pass": 64.6145, "accurate_pass": 57.8752, "duels_won": 4.5946, "total_long_balls": 4.6763, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4118, "total_own_half_passes": 41.1963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.1215, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4182, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7538, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.5018, "possession_lost": 7.5719, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 4.2125, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.8365, "won_contest": 0.734, "ball_recovery": 4.3317, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.5824, "fouls_drawn": 0.2179, "blocks": 0.9495, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0455, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "big_chances_created": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.132, "ball_carries": 29.4467, "total_progression": 119.4443, "progressive_carries": 1.528, "key_pass": 0.2412, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.61, "bench_expected_minutes": 37.63, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1774, xG scale 1.2358, xA scale 1.2732, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4837, "tackles": 0.5727, "tackles_won": 0.3208, "clearances": 2.4016, "aerial_won": 1.0111, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7722, "minutes": 37.63, "total_pass": 64.6145, "accurate_pass": 57.8752, "duels_won": 4.5946, "total_long_balls": 4.6763, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4118, "total_own_half_passes": 41.1963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.1215, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4182, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7538, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.5018, "possession_lost": 7.5719, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 4.2125, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.8365, "won_contest": 0.734, "ball_recovery": 4.3317, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.5824, "fouls_drawn": 0.2179, "blocks": 0.9495, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "big_chances_created": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.0995, "ball_carries": 29.4467, "total_progression": 119.4443, "progressive_carries": 1.528, "key_pass": 0.2412, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.61, "bench_expected_minutes": 37.63, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.455, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1774, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7428, "team_expected_assists": 0.9458, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2358, "xa_scale": 1.2732, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.61 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0455, "after": 0.0343 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0775, "after": 0.0602 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.5197, "creative_index": 0.6119, "expectedGoals": 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0.0007, "total": 0.0756, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463472, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.276114 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.083128 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.082372 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.079138 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.062603 } ], "others_margin": 0.008323 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08487692475318909, "model_output": 0.0849, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0756 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0918, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0046 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0014, "total": 0.0849, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.498048 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.230885 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.109984 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057439 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.038067 } ], "others_margin": -0.016917 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06663814187049866, "model_output": 0.0666, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0013, "total": 0.0666, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.597017 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.240531 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.156501 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.067919 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.064923 } ], "others_margin": -0.017267 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.17878983914852142, "model_output": 0.1788, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.163 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0238 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 0.1788, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.718924 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.180519 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.120751 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.063312 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.051611 } ], "others_margin": -0.146103 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9253975749015808, "model_output": 0.9254, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4652 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2627 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0551 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0507 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0312 } ], "others": 0.0684, "total": 0.9254, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.46522 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.2627 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.055106 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.050733 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.031176 } ], "others_margin": 0.06832 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.806704998016357, "model_output": 6.8067, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0885 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": 0.0101, "total": 6.8067, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.088466 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.024631 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014578 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.009906 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.007766 } ], "others_margin": 0.010042 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0077, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6463, "expected_assists": 0.0561, "assists": 0.0762, "assist_rate": 0.0762, "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.0672, "shots_on_target": 0.1802, "total_shots": 0.9325, "rating": 6.8067, "minutes": 23.24, "total_pass": 15.9567, "accurate_pass": 13.6671, "duels_won": 2.5227, "total_long_balls": 0.8491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.566, "total_own_half_passes": 6.813, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4213, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1438, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2459, "crosses_total": 3.356, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.1336, "possession_lost": 6.3116, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3329, "aerial_won": 1.2319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2831, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 1.0077, "total_contest": 1.6237, "won_contest": 1.2908, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1753, "ball_carries": 5.1202, "total_progression": 42.5871, "progressive_carries": 0.926, "shots_off_target": 0.7523 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0077, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6463, "expected_assists": 0.0561, "assists": 0.0754, "assist_rate": 0.0754, "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.0678, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.9283, "rating": 6.8067, "minutes": 23.24, "total_pass": 15.9567, "accurate_pass": 13.6671, "duels_won": 2.5227, "total_long_balls": 0.8491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.566, "total_own_half_passes": 6.813, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4213, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1438, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2459, "crosses_total": 3.3326, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.1336, "possession_lost": 6.3116, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3329, "aerial_won": 1.2319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2881, "tackles_won": 0.0026, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 1.0077, "total_contest": 1.6237, "won_contest": 1.2908, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0026, "fouls_drawn": 0.0078, "blocks": 0.3917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1753, "ball_carries": 5.1202, "total_progression": 42.5871, "progressive_carries": 0.926, "shots_off_target": 0.7523 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2582, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.356, "after": 3.3326 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0078 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.2831, "after": 0.2881 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.2 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.33)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6427, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "assists": 0.075, "assist_rate": 0.075, "expected_goals": 0.085, "goals": 0.0674, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "shots_on_target": 0.1787, "total_shots": 0.9268, "rating": 6.8067, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 15.8679, "accurate_pass": 13.591, "duels_won": 2.5087, "total_long_balls": 0.8444, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5628, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7751, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3856, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2056, "crosses_total": 3.3141, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.9882, "possession_lost": 6.2765, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.331, "aerial_won": 1.225, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2865, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 1.0021, "total_contest": 1.6147, "won_contest": 1.2836, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0026, "fouls_drawn": 0.0078, "blocks": 0.3895, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1743, "ball_carries": 5.0917, "total_progression": 42.3501, "progressive_carries": 0.9208, "shots_off_target": 0.7481, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.33, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.11 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.11, "projection_minutes": 23.24, "minutes_scale": 0.9944, "appearance_probability": 0.33 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6427, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "assists": 0.075, "assist_rate": 0.075, "expected_goals": 0.085, "goals": 0.0674, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "shots_on_target": 0.1787, "total_shots": 0.9268, "rating": 6.8067, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 15.8679, "accurate_pass": 13.591, "duels_won": 2.5087, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0016, quality 0.540)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2827, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "assists": 0.043, "assist_rate": 0.043, "expected_goals": 0.048, "goals": 0.0575, "goal_rate": 0.0575, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6641, "minutes": 13.26, "total_pass": 6.6139, "accurate_pass": 5.2885, "duels_won": 0.5364, "total_long_balls": 0.8058, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5796, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4531, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8354, "crosses_total": 0.4964, "crosses_accurate": 0.211, "touches": 9.737, "possession_lost": 2.0664, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 1.266, "aerial_won": 0.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.1181, "tackles_won": 0.0704, "tackles": 0.1031, "clearances": 0.0879, 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"total_own_half_passes": 1.5796, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4531, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8354, "crosses_total": 0.4961, "crosses_accurate": 0.211, "touches": 9.737, "possession_lost": 2.0664, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 1.266, "aerial_won": 0.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.118, "tackles_won": 0.0704, "tackles": 0.1031, "clearances": 0.0879, "total_contest": 0.2221, "won_contest": 0.0633, "challenges_lost": 0.6083, "fouls": 0.1867, "fouls_drawn": 0.0974, "blocks": 0.1656, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2249, "xgot": 0.0757, "ball_carries": 2.2405, "total_progression": 6.6667, "progressive_carries": 0.231, "shots_off_target": 0.3196 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0007, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1473, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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0.1876, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2548, "xgot": 0.0857, "ball_carries": 2.5379, "total_progression": 7.5516, "progressive_carries": 0.2617, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.7, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.02, "projection_minutes": 13.26, "minutes_scale": 1.1327, "appearance_probability": 0.7 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3202, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "assists": 0.0487, "assist_rate": 0.0487, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goals": 0.0651, "goal_rate": 0.0651, "shots_on_target": 0.2364, "total_shots": 0.5984, "rating": 6.6641, "minutes": 15.02, "total_pass": 7.4918, "accurate_pass": 5.9904, "duels_won": 0.6076, "total_long_balls": 0.9128, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3455, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7893, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.646, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3445, "crosses_total": 0.5619, "crosses_accurate": 0.239, "touches": 11.0294, "possession_lost": 2.3407, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 1.434, "aerial_won": 0.3086, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.1337, "tackles_won": 0.0797, "tackles": 0.1168, "clearances": 0.0996, "total_contest": 0.2516, "won_contest": 0.0717, "challenges_lost": 0.6083, "fouls": 0.2115, "fouls_drawn": 0.1103, "blocks": 0.1876, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2548, "xgot": 0.0857, "ball_carries": 2.5379, "total_progression": 7.5516, "progressive_carries": 0.2617, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.7, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { 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2.5379, "total_progression": 7.5516, "progressive_carries": 0.2617, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.7, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1774, xG scale 1.2358, xA scale 1.2732, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3202, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "assist_rate": 0.0487, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0651, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2364, "total_shots": 0.5984, "rating": 6.6641, "minutes": 15.02, "total_pass": 7.4918, "accurate_pass": 5.9904, "duels_won": 0.6076, "total_long_balls": 0.9128, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3455, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7893, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.646, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3445, "crosses_total": 0.5619, "crosses_accurate": 0.239, "touches": 11.0294, "possession_lost": 2.3407, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 1.434, "aerial_won": 0.3086, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.1337, "tackles_won": 0.0797, "tackles": 0.1168, "clearances": 0.0996, "total_contest": 0.2516, "won_contest": 0.0717, "challenges_lost": 0.6083, "fouls": 0.2115, "fouls_drawn": 0.1103, "blocks": 0.1876, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2548, "xgot": 0.0741, "ball_carries": 2.5379, "total_progression": 7.5516, "progressive_carries": 0.2617, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.7, 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"name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0032, "total": 0.0175, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.406656 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.287271 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.189029 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.155693 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.105285 } ], "others_margin": -0.167217 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5584999322891235, "model_output": 0.5585, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2323 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1566 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.086 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0626 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0505 } ], "others": -0.1556, "total": 0.5585, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.409117 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.293263 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.130616 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.085385 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.068392 } ], "others_margin": -0.245671 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.597624778747559, "model_output": 6.5976, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.056 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0872, "total": 6.5976, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055952 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029422 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.027465 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017452 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013144 } ], "others_margin": -0.087207 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0307, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0602, "goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.0678, "shots_on_target": 0.264, "total_shots": 0.6959, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "key_pass": 0.5756, "rating": 6.5976, "minutes": 12.95, "total_pass": 2.9739, "accurate_pass": 2.9739, "duels_won": 0.5789, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8321, "crosses_total": 0.4006, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1261, "possession_lost": 0.7412, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.1419, "aerial_lost": 0.7412, "total_contest": 0.2895, "won_contest": 0.2895, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4006, "fouls_drawn": 0.2895, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8628, "total_progression": 26.7399, "progressive_carries": 0.8014, "shots_off_target": 0.4319 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0307, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.9 to 26.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "shots_on_target": 0.396, "total_shots": 1.0439, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.8634, "rating": 6.5976, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 4.4608, "accurate_pass": 4.4608, "duels_won": 0.8683, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "crosses_total": 0.6009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1891, "possession_lost": 1.1118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7128, "aerial_lost": 0.7412, "total_contest": 0.4342, "won_contest": 0.4342, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6009, "fouls_drawn": 0.4342, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2942, "total_progression": 40.1098, "progressive_carries": 1.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.6479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.21, "projection_minutes": 12.95, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.6 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "shots_on_target": 0.396, "total_shots": 1.0439, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.8634, "rating": 6.5976, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 4.4608, "accurate_pass": 4.4608, "duels_won": 0.8683, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "crosses_total": 0.6009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1891, "possession_lost": 1.1118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7128, "aerial_lost": 0.7412, "total_contest": 0.4342, "won_contest": 0.4342, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6009, "fouls_drawn": 0.4342, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2942, "total_progression": 40.1098, "progressive_carries": 1.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.6479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.396, "total_shots": 1.0439, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.8634, "rating": 6.5976, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 4.4608, "accurate_pass": 4.4608, "duels_won": 0.8683, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "crosses_total": 0.6009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1891, "possession_lost": 1.1118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7128, "aerial_lost": 0.7412, "total_contest": 0.4342, "won_contest": 0.4342, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6009, "fouls_drawn": 0.4342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2942, "total_progression": 40.1098, "progressive_carries": 1.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.6479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1774, xG scale 1.2358, xA scale 1.2732, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.396, "total_shots": 1.0439, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "key_pass": 0.8634, "rating": 6.5976, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 4.4608, "accurate_pass": 4.4608, "duels_won": 0.8683, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "crosses_total": 0.6009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1891, "possession_lost": 1.1118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7128, "aerial_lost": 0.7412, "total_contest": 0.4342, "won_contest": 0.4342, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6009, "fouls_drawn": 0.4342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2942, "total_progression": 40.1098, "progressive_carries": 1.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.6479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0813, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.455, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1774, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7428, "team_expected_assists": 0.9458, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2358, "xa_scale": 1.2732, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.6 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0903, "after": 0.067 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0272, "after": 0.0208 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.396, "total_shots": 1.0439, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "key_pass": 0.8634, "rating": 6.5976, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 4.4608, "accurate_pass": 4.4608, "duels_won": 0.8683, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "crosses_total": 0.6009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1891, "possession_lost": 1.1118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7128, "aerial_lost": 0.7412, "total_contest": 0.4342, "won_contest": 0.4342, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6009, "fouls_drawn": 0.4342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2942, "total_progression": 40.1098, "progressive_carries": 1.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.6479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0813, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2937, "fifa_rank": 1878.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.396, "total_shots": 1.0439, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "key_pass": 0.8634, "rating": 6.5976, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 4.4608, "accurate_pass": 4.4608, "duels_won": 0.8683, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "crosses_total": 0.6009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1891, "possession_lost": 1.1118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7128, "aerial_lost": 0.7412, "total_contest": 0.4342, "won_contest": 0.4342, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6009, "fouls_drawn": 0.4342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2942, "total_progression": 40.1098, "progressive_carries": 1.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.6479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0634, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0813, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0634, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "scorer_weight": 0.0724, "squad_weight_total": 1.4716, "weight_share": 0.0492, "finishing_factor": 1.0813, "appearance_weight": 0.6, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3911, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3911, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2499 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.396, "total_shots": 1.0439, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "key_pass": 0.8634, "rating": 6.5976, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 4.4608, "accurate_pass": 4.4608, "duels_won": 0.8683, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "crosses_total": 0.6009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1891, "possession_lost": 1.1118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7128, "aerial_lost": 0.7412, "total_contest": 0.4342, "won_contest": 0.4342, "ball_recovery": 0.0, 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"contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0404, "total": 6.6641, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091676 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049857 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036834 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012917 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01262 } ], "others_margin": -0.040503 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0016, quality 0.540)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2827, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "assists": 0.043, "assist_rate": 0.043, "expected_goals": 0.048, "goals": 0.0575, "goal_rate": 0.0575, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.5285, "rating": 6.6641, "minutes": 13.26, "total_pass": 6.6139, "accurate_pass": 5.2885, "duels_won": 0.5364, "total_long_balls": 0.8058, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5796, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4531, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8354, "crosses_total": 0.4964, "crosses_accurate": 0.211, "touches": 9.737, "possession_lost": 2.0664, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 1.266, "aerial_won": 0.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.1181, "tackles_won": 0.0704, "tackles": 0.1031, "clearances": 0.0879, "total_contest": 0.2221, "won_contest": 0.0633, "challenges_lost": 0.6083, "fouls": 0.1868, "fouls_drawn": 0.0975, "blocks": 0.1656, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2249, "xgot": 0.0757, "ball_carries": 2.2405, "total_progression": 6.6667, "progressive_carries": 0.231, "shots_off_target": 0.3196 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11500000, "quality_factor": 0.5399, "boost_factor": 1.0016, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0007)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2827, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "assists": 0.043, "assist_rate": 0.043, "expected_goals": 0.048, "goals": 0.0575, "goal_rate": 0.0575, "shots_on_target": 0.2087, "total_shots": 0.5282, "rating": 6.6641, "minutes": 13.26, "total_pass": 6.6139, "accurate_pass": 5.2885, "duels_won": 0.5364, "total_long_balls": 0.8058, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5796, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4531, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8354, "crosses_total": 0.4961, "crosses_accurate": 0.211, "touches": 9.737, "possession_lost": 2.0664, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 1.266, "aerial_won": 0.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.118, "tackles_won": 0.0704, "tackles": 0.1031, "clearances": 0.0879, "total_contest": 0.2221, "won_contest": 0.0633, "challenges_lost": 0.6083, "fouls": 0.1867, "fouls_drawn": 0.0974, "blocks": 0.1656, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2249, "xgot": 0.0757, "ball_carries": 2.2405, "total_progression": 6.6667, "progressive_carries": 0.231, "shots_off_target": 0.3196 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0007, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1473, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.3 to 15.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3202, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "assists": 0.0487, "assist_rate": 0.0487, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goals": 0.0651, "goal_rate": 0.0651, "shots_on_target": 0.2364, "total_shots": 0.5984, "rating": 6.6641, "minutes": 15.02, "total_pass": 7.4918, "accurate_pass": 5.9904, "duels_won": 0.6076, "total_long_balls": 0.9128, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3455, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7893, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.646, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3445, "crosses_total": 0.5619, "crosses_accurate": 0.239, "touches": 11.0294, "possession_lost": 2.3407, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 1.434, "aerial_won": 0.3086, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.1337, "tackles_won": 0.0797, "tackles": 0.1168, "clearances": 0.0996, "total_contest": 0.2516, "won_contest": 0.0717, "challenges_lost": 0.6083, "fouls": 0.2115, "fouls_drawn": 0.1103, "blocks": 0.1876, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2548, "xgot": 0.0857, "ball_carries": 2.5379, "total_progression": 7.5516, "progressive_carries": 0.2617, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.7, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.02, "projection_minutes": 13.26, "minutes_scale": 1.1327, "appearance_probability": 0.7 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3202, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "assists": 0.0487, "assist_rate": 0.0487, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goals": 0.0651, "goal_rate": 0.0651, "shots_on_target": 0.2364, "total_shots": 0.5984, "rating": 6.6641, "minutes": 15.02, "total_pass": 7.4918, "accurate_pass": 5.9904, "duels_won": 0.6076, "total_long_balls": 0.9128, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3455, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7893, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.646, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3445, "crosses_total": 0.5619, "crosses_accurate": 0.239, "touches": 11.0294, "possession_lost": 2.3407, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 1.434, "aerial_won": 0.3086, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.1337, "tackles_won": 0.0797, "tackles": 0.1168, "clearances": 0.0996, "total_contest": 0.2516, "won_contest": 0.0717, "challenges_lost": 0.6083, "fouls": 0.2115, "fouls_drawn": 0.1103, "blocks": 0.1876, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2548, "xgot": 0.0857, "ball_carries": 2.5379, "total_progression": 7.5516, "progressive_carries": 0.2617, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.7, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3202, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "assist_rate": 0.0487, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goal_rate": 0.0651, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2364, "total_shots": 0.5984, "rating": 6.6641, "minutes": 15.02, "total_pass": 7.4918, "accurate_pass": 5.9904, "duels_won": 0.6076, "total_long_balls": 0.9128, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3455, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7893, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.646, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3445, "crosses_total": 0.5619, "crosses_accurate": 0.239, "touches": 11.0294, "possession_lost": 2.3407, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 1.434, "aerial_won": 0.3086, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.1337, "tackles_won": 0.0797, "tackles": 0.1168, "clearances": 0.0996, "total_contest": 0.2516, "won_contest": 0.0717, "challenges_lost": 0.6083, "fouls": 0.2115, "fouls_drawn": 0.1103, "blocks": 0.1876, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2548, "xgot": 0.0857, "ball_carries": 2.5379, "total_progression": 7.5516, "progressive_carries": 0.2617, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.7, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1774, xG scale 1.2358, xA scale 1.2732, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3202, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "assist_rate": 0.0487, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0651, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2364, "total_shots": 0.5984, "rating": 6.6641, "minutes": 15.02, "total_pass": 7.4918, "accurate_pass": 5.9904, "duels_won": 0.6076, "total_long_balls": 0.9128, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3455, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7893, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.646, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3445, "crosses_total": 0.5619, "crosses_accurate": 0.239, "touches": 11.0294, "possession_lost": 2.3407, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 1.434, "aerial_won": 0.3086, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.1337, "tackles_won": 0.0797, "tackles": 0.1168, "clearances": 0.0996, "total_contest": 0.2516, "won_contest": 0.0717, "challenges_lost": 0.6083, "fouls": 0.2115, "fouls_drawn": 0.1103, "blocks": 0.1876, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2548, "xgot": 0.0741, "ball_carries": 2.5379, "total_progression": 7.5516, "progressive_carries": 0.2617, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.7, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1025, "creation_factor": 1.22 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.455, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1774, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7428, "team_expected_assists": 0.9458, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2358, "xa_scale": 1.2732, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.7 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0544, "after": 0.0471 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3202, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "assist_rate": 0.0487, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0651, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2364, "total_shots": 0.5984, "rating": 6.6641, "minutes": 15.02, "total_pass": 7.4918, "accurate_pass": 5.9904, "duels_won": 0.6076, "total_long_balls": 0.9128, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3455, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7893, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.646, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3445, "crosses_total": 0.5619, "crosses_accurate": 0.239, "touches": 11.0294, "possession_lost": 2.3407, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 1.434, "aerial_won": 0.3086, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.1337, "tackles_won": 0.0797, "tackles": 0.1168, "clearances": 0.0996, "total_contest": 0.2516, "won_contest": 0.0717, "challenges_lost": 0.6083, "fouls": 0.2115, "fouls_drawn": 0.1103, "blocks": 0.1876, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2548, "xgot": 0.0741, "ball_carries": 2.5379, "total_progression": 7.5516, "progressive_carries": 0.2617, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.7, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1025, "creation_factor": 1.22, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3172, "fifa_rank": 1781.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3202, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "assist_rate": 0.0487, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0651, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2364, "total_shots": 0.5984, "rating": 6.6641, "minutes": 15.02, "total_pass": 7.4918, "accurate_pass": 5.9904, "duels_won": 0.6076, "total_long_balls": 0.9128, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3455, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7893, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.646, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3445, "crosses_total": 0.5619, "crosses_accurate": 0.239, "touches": 11.0294, "possession_lost": 2.3407, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 1.434, "aerial_won": 0.3086, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.1337, "tackles_won": 0.0797, "tackles": 0.1168, "clearances": 0.0996, "total_contest": 0.2516, "won_contest": 0.0717, "challenges_lost": 0.6083, "fouls": 0.2115, "fouls_drawn": 0.1103, "blocks": 0.1876, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2548, "xgot": 0.0741, "ball_carries": 2.5379, "total_progression": 7.5516, "progressive_carries": 0.2617, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.7, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0456, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1025, "creation_factor": 1.22, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0456, "goal_rate": 0.0651, "scorer_weight": 0.0519, "squad_weight_total": 1.4716, "weight_share": 0.0353, "finishing_factor": 1.1025, "appearance_weight": 0.7, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3911, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3911, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2499 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3202, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "assist_rate": 0.0487, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0651, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2364, "total_shots": 0.5984, "rating": 6.6641, "minutes": 15.02, "total_pass": 7.4918, "accurate_pass": 5.9904, "duels_won": 0.6076, "total_long_balls": 0.9128, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3455, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7893, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.646, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3445, "crosses_total": 0.5619, "crosses_accurate": 0.239, "touches": 11.0294, "possession_lost": 2.3407, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 1.434, "aerial_won": 0.3086, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.1337, "tackles_won": 0.0797, "tackles": 0.1168, "clearances": 0.0996, "total_contest": 0.2516, "won_contest": 0.0717, "challenges_lost": 0.6083, "fouls": 0.2115, "fouls_drawn": 0.1103, "blocks": 0.1876, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2548, "xgot": 0.0741, "ball_carries": 2.5379, "total_progression": 7.5516, "progressive_carries": 0.2617, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.7, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0456, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.027, "finishing_factor": 1.1025, "creation_factor": 1.22, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.027, "assist_rate": 0.0487, "provider_weight": 0.0335, "squad_weight_total": 0.8556, "weight_share": 0.0392, "creation_factor": 1.22, "appearance_weight": 0.7, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "James Justin", "weight": 0.1368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1368, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1248, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nico Elvedi": { "player_id": 282229, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 188, "market_value": 11000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7722, 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[ { "player_name": "Daniel Hall", "ranking": 1579 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking": 1580 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Herrera", "ranking": 1581 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking": 1585 }, { "player_name": "Pavel Šulc", "ranking": 1586 }, { "player_name": "Richard Friday", "ranking": 1587 }, { "player_name": "Bertrand Traoré", "ranking": 1588 }, { "player_name": "Abdurauf Buriev", "ranking": 1589 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.694, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", 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true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.708386 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.086558 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.066281 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.050534 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.046693 } ], "others_margin": -0.210678 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.95033860206604, "model_output": 1.9503, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1553 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3109 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0781 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0791 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0664 } ], "others": 0.1554, "total": 1.9503, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.996939 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.220483 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.048487 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.046816 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.037701 } ], "others_margin": 0.083071 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.821130633354187, "model_output": 0.8211, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8207 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1619 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0508 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0234 } ], "others": 0.0333, "total": 0.8211, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.914323 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.258421 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.067379 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.06471 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.029246 } ], "others_margin": 0.041392 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3232, "model_output": 0.1624, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2251 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0587, "total": 0.1624, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.225055 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018662 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013246 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010969 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.007916 } ], "others_margin": -0.058829 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.772189617156982, "model_output": 6.7722, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0279, "total": 6.7722, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.03021 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.025822 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.025282 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.020078 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.00831 } ], "others_margin": -0.027874 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.534)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3923, "tackles": 0.4668, "tackles_won": 0.2644, "clearances": 1.9574, "aerial_won": 0.8241, "total_shots": 0.3244, "rating": 6.7722, "minutes": 30.67, "total_pass": 52.6635, "accurate_pass": 47.1707, "duels_won": 3.7448, "total_long_balls": 3.8114, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9657, "total_own_half_passes": 33.5767, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.8856, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.0868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2851, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.1672, "possession_lost": 6.1714, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 3.4334, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.6818, "won_contest": 0.5982, "ball_recovery": 3.5305, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.4799, "fouls_drawn": 0.1671, "blocks": 0.7739, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "shots_on_target": 0.3244, "big_chances_created": 0.1966, "xgot": 0.1076, "ball_carries": 24.0003, "total_progression": 97.352, "progressive_carries": 1.2454, "key_pass": 0.1966, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11000000, "quality_factor": 0.5341, "boost_factor": 1.0036, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3942, "tackles": 0.4668, "tackles_won": 0.2615, "clearances": 1.9574, "aerial_won": 0.8241, "total_shots": 0.3209, "rating": 6.7722, "minutes": 30.67, "total_pass": 52.6635, "accurate_pass": 47.1707, "duels_won": 3.7448, "total_long_balls": 3.8114, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9657, "total_own_half_passes": 33.5767, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.8856, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.0868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2851, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.1672, "possession_lost": 6.1714, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 3.4334, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.6818, "won_contest": 0.5982, "ball_recovery": 3.5305, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.4747, "fouls_drawn": 0.1776, "blocks": 0.7739, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "shots_on_target": 0.3209, "big_chances_created": 0.1966, "xgot": 0.1076, "ball_carries": 24.0003, "total_progression": 97.352, "progressive_carries": 1.2454, "key_pass": 0.1966, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3408, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.1671, "after": 0.1776 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4799, "after": 0.4747 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.7 to 37.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4837, "tackles": 0.5727, "tackles_won": 0.3208, "clearances": 2.4016, "aerial_won": 1.0111, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7722, "minutes": 37.63, "total_pass": 64.6145, "accurate_pass": 57.8752, "duels_won": 4.5946, "total_long_balls": 4.6763, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4118, "total_own_half_passes": 41.1963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.1215, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4182, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7538, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.5018, "possession_lost": 7.5719, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 4.2125, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.8365, "won_contest": 0.734, "ball_recovery": 4.3317, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.5824, "fouls_drawn": 0.2179, "blocks": 0.9495, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0455, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "big_chances_created": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.132, "ball_carries": 29.4467, "total_progression": 119.4443, "progressive_carries": 1.528, "key_pass": 0.2412, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.61, "bench_expected_minutes": 37.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 37.63, "projection_minutes": 30.67, "minutes_scale": 1.2269, "appearance_probability": 0.61 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4837, "tackles": 0.5727, "tackles_won": 0.3208, "clearances": 2.4016, "aerial_won": 1.0111, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7722, "minutes": 37.63, "total_pass": 64.6145, "accurate_pass": 57.8752, "duels_won": 4.5946, "total_long_balls": 4.6763, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4118, "total_own_half_passes": 41.1963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.1215, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4182, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7538, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.5018, "possession_lost": 7.5719, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 4.2125, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.8365, "won_contest": 0.734, "ball_recovery": 4.3317, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.5824, "fouls_drawn": 0.2179, "blocks": 0.9495, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0455, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "big_chances_created": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.132, "ball_carries": 29.4467, "total_progression": 119.4443, "progressive_carries": 1.528, "key_pass": 0.2412, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.61, "bench_expected_minutes": 37.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4837, "tackles": 0.5727, "tackles_won": 0.3208, "clearances": 2.4016, "aerial_won": 1.0111, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7722, "minutes": 37.63, "total_pass": 64.6145, "accurate_pass": 57.8752, "duels_won": 4.5946, "total_long_balls": 4.6763, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4118, "total_own_half_passes": 41.1963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.1215, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4182, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7538, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.5018, "possession_lost": 7.5719, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 4.2125, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.8365, "won_contest": 0.734, "ball_recovery": 4.3317, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.5824, "fouls_drawn": 0.2179, "blocks": 0.9495, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0455, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "big_chances_created": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.132, "ball_carries": 29.4467, "total_progression": 119.4443, "progressive_carries": 1.528, "key_pass": 0.2412, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.61, "bench_expected_minutes": 37.63, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1774, xG scale 1.2358, xA scale 1.2732, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4837, "tackles": 0.5727, "tackles_won": 0.3208, "clearances": 2.4016, "aerial_won": 1.0111, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7722, "minutes": 37.63, "total_pass": 64.6145, "accurate_pass": 57.8752, "duels_won": 4.5946, "total_long_balls": 4.6763, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4118, "total_own_half_passes": 41.1963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.1215, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4182, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7538, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.5018, "possession_lost": 7.5719, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 4.2125, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.8365, "won_contest": 0.734, "ball_recovery": 4.3317, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.5824, "fouls_drawn": 0.2179, "blocks": 0.9495, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "big_chances_created": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.0995, "ball_carries": 29.4467, "total_progression": 119.4443, "progressive_carries": 1.528, "key_pass": 0.2412, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.61, "bench_expected_minutes": 37.63, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.455, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1774, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7428, "team_expected_assists": 0.9458, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2358, "xa_scale": 1.2732, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.61 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0455, "after": 0.0343 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0775, "after": 0.0602 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4837, "tackles": 0.5727, "tackles_won": 0.3208, "clearances": 2.4016, "aerial_won": 1.0111, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7722, "minutes": 37.63, "total_pass": 64.6145, "accurate_pass": 57.8752, "duels_won": 4.5946, "total_long_balls": 4.6763, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4118, "total_own_half_passes": 41.1963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.1215, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4182, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7538, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.5018, "possession_lost": 7.5719, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 4.2125, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.8365, "won_contest": 0.734, "ball_recovery": 4.3317, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.5824, "fouls_drawn": 0.2179, "blocks": 0.9495, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "big_chances_created": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.0995, "ball_carries": 29.4467, "total_progression": 119.4443, "progressive_carries": 1.528, "key_pass": 0.2412, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.61, "bench_expected_minutes": 37.63, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1584, "fifa_rank": 1160.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4837, "tackles": 0.5727, "tackles_won": 0.3208, "clearances": 2.4016, "aerial_won": 1.0111, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7722, "minutes": 37.63, "total_pass": 64.6145, "accurate_pass": 57.8752, "duels_won": 4.5946, "total_long_balls": 4.6763, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4118, "total_own_half_passes": 41.1963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.1215, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4182, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7538, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.5018, "possession_lost": 7.5719, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 4.2125, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.8365, "won_contest": 0.734, "ball_recovery": 4.3317, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.5824, "fouls_drawn": 0.2179, "blocks": 0.9495, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "big_chances_created": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.0995, "ball_carries": 29.4467, "total_progression": 119.4443, "progressive_carries": 1.528, "key_pass": 0.2412, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.61, "bench_expected_minutes": 37.63, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0334, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0334, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0274, "squad_weight_total": 1.4716, "weight_share": 0.0186, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.61, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3911, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3911, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2499 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4837, "tackles": 0.5727, "tackles_won": 0.3208, "clearances": 2.4016, "aerial_won": 1.0111, "total_shots": 0.3937, "rating": 6.7722, "minutes": 37.63, "total_pass": 64.6145, "accurate_pass": 57.8752, "duels_won": 4.5946, "total_long_balls": 4.6763, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4118, "total_own_half_passes": 41.1963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.1215, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4182, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7538, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 77.5018, "possession_lost": 7.5719, "dispossessed": 0.2828, "duels_lost": 4.2125, "aerial_lost": 2.0329, "total_contest": 0.8365, "won_contest": 0.734, "ball_recovery": 4.3317, "challenges_lost": 0.5543, "fouls": 0.5824, "fouls_drawn": 0.2179, "blocks": 0.9495, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "expected_assists": 0.0602, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "big_chances_created": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.0995, "ball_carries": 29.4467, "total_progression": 119.4443, "progressive_carries": 1.528, "key_pass": 0.2412, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.61, "bench_expected_minutes": 37.63, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0334, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0573, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0573, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0482, "squad_weight_total": 0.8556, "weight_share": 0.0563, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.61, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "James Justin", "weight": 0.1368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1368, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1248, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya": { "player_id": 1146148, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 180, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.5976, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 1.1118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.396, "total_shots": 1.0439, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.8634, "rating": 6.5976, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 4.4608, "accurate_pass": 4.4608, "duels_won": 0.8683, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "crosses_total": 0.6009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1891, "possession_lost": 1.1118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7128, "aerial_lost": 0.7412, "total_contest": 0.4342, "won_contest": 0.4342, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6009, "fouls_drawn": 0.4342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2942, "total_progression": 40.1098, "progressive_carries": 1.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.6479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.46 (squad xG sum 1.1774, xG scale 1.2358, xA scale 1.2732, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.396, "total_shots": 1.0439, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "key_pass": 0.8634, "rating": 6.5976, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 4.4608, "accurate_pass": 4.4608, "duels_won": 0.8683, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "crosses_total": 0.6009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1891, "possession_lost": 1.1118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7128, "aerial_lost": 0.7412, "total_contest": 0.4342, "won_contest": 0.4342, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6009, "fouls_drawn": 0.4342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2942, "total_progression": 40.1098, "progressive_carries": 1.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.6479, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.785, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0813, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.455, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1774, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7428, "team_expected_assists": 0.9458, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2358, "xa_scale": 1.2732, "opponent_lambda": 1.326, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.6 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0903, "after": 0.067 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0272, "after": 0.0208 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.396, "total_shots": 1.0439, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "key_pass": 0.8634, "rating": 6.5976, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 4.4608, "accurate_pass": 4.4608, "duels_won": 0.8683, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "crosses_total": 0.6009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1891, "possession_lost": 1.1118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7128, "aerial_lost": 0.7412, "total_contest": 0.4342, "won_contest": 0.4342, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6009, "fouls_drawn": 0.4342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.396, "total_shots": 1.0439, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "key_pass": 0.8634, "rating": 6.5976, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 4.4608, "accurate_pass": 4.4608, "duels_won": 0.8683, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7481, "crosses_total": 0.6009, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1891, "possession_lost": 1.1118, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7128, "aerial_lost": 0.7412, "total_contest": 0.4342, "won_contest": 0.4342, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6009, "fouls_drawn": 0.4342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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0.0204, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0166, "squad_weight_total": 0.8556, "weight_share": 0.0194, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.6, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "James Justin", "weight": 0.1368, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1368, "runner_up": "Jayden Bogle", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1248, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.46, "expected_assists": 0.95, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 438, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.89, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3 } }, "Tottenham": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Antonín Kinský": { "player_id": 1031251, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 31, "height": 190, "market_value": 18900000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0088, 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{ "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 16, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0082, quality 0.620)", "stats": { "saves": 2.847, "goals_prevented": 0.0088, "rating": 6.9383, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.0246, "accurate_pass": 21.4885, "total_long_balls": 12.305, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 38.5798, "clearances": 0.9339, "ball_recovery": 7.3468, "high_claims": 0.4605, "punches": 0.5621, "aerial_won": 0.1674, "sweeper_actions": 0.8666, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8666, "saves_inside_box": 1.4899, "possession_lost": 8.5886, "duels_won": 0.3638, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1964, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3578 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18900000, "quality_factor": 0.6201, "boost_factor": 1.0082, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 16, "history_shrink": 0.2381, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0206)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8398, "goals_prevented": 0.0088, "rating": 6.9383, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.0246, "accurate_pass": 21.4885, "total_long_balls": 12.305, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 38.5798, "clearances": 0.9339, "ball_recovery": 7.3468, "high_claims": 0.4605, "punches": 0.5621, "aerial_won": 0.1674, "sweeper_actions": 0.8666, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8666, "saves_inside_box": 1.4899, "possession_lost": 8.5886, "duels_won": 0.3638, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1923, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3578 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0206, "history_matches": 16, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.847, "after": 2.8398 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8398, "goals_prevented": 0.0088, "rating": 6.9383, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.0246, "accurate_pass": 21.4885, "total_long_balls": 12.305, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 38.5798, "clearances": 0.9339, "ball_recovery": 7.3468, "high_claims": 0.4605, "punches": 0.5621, "aerial_won": 0.1674, "sweeper_actions": 0.8666, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8666, "saves_inside_box": 1.4899, "possession_lost": 8.5886, "duels_won": 0.3638, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1923, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3578 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8398, "goals_prevented": 0.0088, "rating": 6.9383, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.0246, "accurate_pass": 21.4885, "total_long_balls": 12.305, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 38.5798, "clearances": 0.9339, "ball_recovery": 7.3468, "high_claims": 0.4605, "punches": 0.5621, "aerial_won": 0.1674, "sweeper_actions": 0.8666, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8666, "saves_inside_box": 1.4899, "possession_lost": 8.5886, "duels_won": 0.3638, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1923, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3578, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.289, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.98, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.289 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8398, "goals_prevented": 0.0088, "rating": 6.9383, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.0246, "accurate_pass": 21.4885, "total_long_balls": 12.305, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 38.5798, "clearances": 0.9339, "ball_recovery": 7.3468, "high_claims": 0.4605, "punches": 0.5621, "aerial_won": 0.1674, "sweeper_actions": 0.8666, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8666, "saves_inside_box": 1.4899, "possession_lost": 8.5886, "duels_won": 0.3638, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1923, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3578, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.289, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.98, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.1399, xG scale 1.1632, xA scale 1.0414, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8398, "goals_prevented": 0.0088, "rating": 6.9383, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.0246, "accurate_pass": 21.4885, "total_long_balls": 12.305, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 38.5798, "clearances": 0.9339, "ball_recovery": 7.3468, "high_claims": 0.4605, "punches": 0.5621, "aerial_won": 0.1674, "sweeper_actions": 0.8666, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8666, "saves_inside_box": 1.4899, "possession_lost": 8.5886, "duels_won": 0.3638, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1923, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3578, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.289, "shots_faced": 13.8, "expected_saves": 3.38, "high_pressure_saves": 1.16, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1399, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0186, "team_expected_assists": 1.0608, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1632, "xa_scale": 1.0414, "opponent_lambda": 1.455, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 12.2, "after": 13.8 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.98, "after": 3.38 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.03, "after": 1.16 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8398, "goals_prevented": 0.0088, "rating": 6.9383, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.0246, "accurate_pass": 21.4885, "total_long_balls": 12.305, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 38.5798, "clearances": 0.9339, "ball_recovery": 7.3468, "high_claims": 0.4605, "punches": 0.5621, "aerial_won": 0.1674, "sweeper_actions": 0.8666, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8666, "saves_inside_box": 1.4899, "possession_lost": 8.5886, "duels_won": 0.3638, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1923, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3578, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.289, "shots_faced": 13.8, "expected_saves": 3.38, "high_pressure_saves": 1.16, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2750, "fifa_rank": 1402.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8398, "goals_prevented": 0.0088, "rating": 6.9383, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.0246, "accurate_pass": 21.4885, "total_long_balls": 12.305, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 38.5798, "clearances": 0.9339, "ball_recovery": 7.3468, "high_claims": 0.4605, "punches": 0.5621, "aerial_won": 0.1674, "sweeper_actions": 0.8666, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8666, "saves_inside_box": 1.4899, "possession_lost": 8.5886, "duels_won": 0.3638, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1923, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3578, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.289, "shots_faced": 13.8, "expected_saves": 3.38, "high_pressure_saves": 1.16, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4241, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Richarlison", "weight": 0.3477, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3477, "runner_up": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3002 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8398, "goals_prevented": 0.0088, "rating": 6.9383, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 30.0246, "accurate_pass": 21.4885, "total_long_balls": 12.305, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1636, "touches": 38.5798, "clearances": 0.9339, "ball_recovery": 7.3468, "high_claims": 0.4605, "punches": 0.5621, "aerial_won": 0.1674, "sweeper_actions": 0.8666, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8666, "saves_inside_box": 1.4899, "possession_lost": 8.5886, "duels_won": 0.3638, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1923, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3578, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.289, "shots_faced": 13.8, "expected_saves": 3.38, "high_pressure_saves": 1.16, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.0537, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Andy Robertson", "weight": 0.2159, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2159, "runner_up": "Xavi Simons", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1841, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Richarlison" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jan Paul van Hecke": { "player_id": 962012, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 189, "market_value": 65000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.632, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 93, "accurate_pass": 84, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 40, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38, "total_opp_half_passes": 53, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 46, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 107, "possession_lost": 10.513, "dispossessed": 0.2086, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.2653, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0196, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2625, "expected_assists": 0.0849, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.3372, "ball_carries": 40, "total_progression": 209, "progressive_carries": 3, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2309, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0814, "finishing_factor": 1.1436, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363910.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9413, "expected_assists": 0.1808, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 151, "accurate_pass": 143, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363893.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 100, "accurate_pass": 86, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 8, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363890.0, "match_date": "2026-10-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0548, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 97, "accurate_pass": 85, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363879.0, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 59, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", 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"margin": 0.192789 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.108498 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.102195 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.077731 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.057229 } ], "others_margin": 0.294748 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 45, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0107, quality 0.863)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.168, "tackles": 1.4924, "tackles_won": 0.9569, "clearances": 4.2273, "aerial_won": 3.4919, "total_shots": 1.1075, "rating": 7.632, "minutes": 89.86, "total_pass": 93.102, "accurate_pass": 83.9908, "duels_won": 6.2365, "total_long_balls": 5.9836, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1628, "total_own_half_passes": 40.0453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.5244, "total_opp_half_passes": 53.0567, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 46.4663, "crosses_total": 0.4673, "crosses_accurate": 0.1338, "touches": 107.0217, "possession_lost": 10.513, "dispossessed": 0.2086, "duels_lost": 3.991, "aerial_lost": 2.1597, "total_contest": 0.1105, "won_contest": 0.005, "ball_recovery": 3.6456, "challenges_lost": 0.5523, "fouls": 0.9714, "fouls_drawn": 0.7459, "blocks": 0.9141, "goals": 0.2676, 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0.2653, "goal_rate": 0.2653, "assists": 0.0196, "assist_rate": 0.0196, "expected_goals": 0.2257, "expected_assists": 0.0815, "shots_on_target": 0.468, "big_chances_created": 0.0884, "xgot": 0.2899, "ball_carries": 39.7934, "total_progression": 209.2689, "progressive_carries": 3.2575, "key_pass": 1.1196, "shots_off_target": 0.6398 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1622, "tackles": 1.4924, "tackles_won": 0.9573, "clearances": 4.2273, "aerial_won": 3.4919, "total_shots": 1.1078, "rating": 7.632, "minutes": 89.86, "total_pass": 93.102, "accurate_pass": 83.9908, "duels_won": 6.2365, "total_long_balls": 5.9836, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1628, "total_own_half_passes": 40.0453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.5244, "total_opp_half_passes": 53.0567, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 46.4663, "crosses_total": 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.1399, xG scale 1.1632, xA scale 1.0414, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1622, "tackles": 1.4924, "tackles_won": 0.9573, "clearances": 4.2273, "aerial_won": 3.4919, "total_shots": 1.1078, "rating": 7.632, "minutes": 89.86, "total_pass": 93.102, "accurate_pass": 83.9908, "duels_won": 6.2365, "total_long_balls": 5.9836, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1628, "total_own_half_passes": 40.0453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.5244, "total_opp_half_passes": 53.0567, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 46.4663, "crosses_total": 0.4633, "crosses_accurate": 0.1338, "touches": 107.0217, "possession_lost": 10.513, "dispossessed": 0.2086, "duels_lost": 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1436, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1399, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0186, "team_expected_assists": 1.0608, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1632, "xa_scale": 1.0414, "opponent_lambda": 1.455, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2257, "after": 0.2625 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"global_player_rank": 653, "fifa_rank": 523.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1622, "tackles": 1.4924, "tackles_won": 0.9573, "clearances": 4.2273, "aerial_won": 3.4919, "total_shots": 1.1078, "rating": 7.632, "minutes": 89.86, "total_pass": 93.102, "accurate_pass": 83.9908, "duels_won": 6.2365, "total_long_balls": 5.9836, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1628, "total_own_half_passes": 40.0453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.5244, "total_opp_half_passes": 53.0567, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 46.4663, "crosses_total": 0.4633, "crosses_accurate": 0.1338, "touches": 107.0217, "possession_lost": 10.513, "dispossessed": 0.2086, "duels_lost": 3.991, "aerial_lost": 2.1597, "total_contest": 0.1105, "won_contest": 0.005, "ball_recovery": 3.6456, 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"others": 0.0224, "total": 0.4543, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.120281 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.038248 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.032229 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.018079 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.017504 } ], "others_margin": 0.022255 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.20286226272583, "model_output": 7.2029, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1436 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0648 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0624 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0429 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0037, quality 0.613)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2869, "tackles": 1.8842, "tackles_won": 1.0813, "clearances": 4.8109, "aerial_won": 2.2117, "total_shots": 0.456, "rating": 7.2029, "minutes": 89.78, "total_pass": 70.6263, "accurate_pass": 57.536, "duels_won": 5.9639, "total_long_balls": 10.8186, "accurate_long_balls": 4.012, "total_own_half_passes": 36.7172, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9033, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6326, "crosses_total": 0.3838, "crosses_accurate": 0.068, "touches": 85.8214, "possession_lost": 14.584, "dispossessed": 0.2597, "duels_lost": 5.0823, "aerial_lost": 2.8352, "total_contest": 0.3552, "won_contest": 0.2357, "ball_recovery": 4.5, "challenges_lost": 0.8488, "fouls": 1.0211, "fouls_drawn": 1.3453, "blocks": 1.1746, "goals": 0.0, 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0.068, "touches": 85.8214, "possession_lost": 14.584, "dispossessed": 0.2597, "duels_lost": 5.0823, "aerial_lost": 2.8352, "total_contest": 0.3552, "won_contest": 0.2357, "ball_recovery": 4.5, "challenges_lost": 0.8488, "fouls": 1.0259, "fouls_drawn": 1.3534, "blocks": 1.1746, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0664, "assist_rate": 0.0664, "expected_goals": 0.0217, "expected_assists": 0.0621, "shots_on_target": 0.0394, "big_chances_created": 0.0853, "xgot": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 27.8984, "total_progression": 117.5586, "progressive_carries": 1.1798, "key_pass": 0.5715, "shots_off_target": 0.4163, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.627, "opponent_faced": "Ao Tanaka", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ao Tanaka", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2904, "tackles": 1.8842, "tackles_won": 1.0956, "clearances": 4.8109, "aerial_won": 2.2117, "total_shots": 0.4557, "rating": 7.2029, "minutes": 89.78, "total_pass": 70.6263, "accurate_pass": 57.536, "duels_won": 5.9639, "total_long_balls": 10.8186, "accurate_long_balls": 4.012, "total_own_half_passes": 36.7172, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9033, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6326, "crosses_total": 0.3819, "crosses_accurate": 0.068, "touches": 85.8214, "possession_lost": 14.584, "dispossessed": 0.2597, "duels_lost": 5.0823, "aerial_lost": 2.8352, "total_contest": 0.3552, "won_contest": 0.2357, "ball_recovery": 4.5, "challenges_lost": 0.8488, "fouls": 1.0259, "fouls_drawn": 1.3534, "blocks": 1.1746, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0664, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0217, "expected_assists": 0.0621, "shots_on_target": 0.0394, "big_chances_created": 0.0853, "xgot": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 27.8984, "total_progression": 117.5586, "progressive_carries": 1.1798, "key_pass": 0.5715, "shots_off_target": 0.4163, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.627, "opponent_faced": "Ao Tanaka", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.1399, xG scale 1.1632, xA scale 1.0414, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2904, "tackles": 1.8842, "tackles_won": 1.0956, "clearances": 4.8109, "aerial_won": 2.2117, "total_shots": 0.4557, "rating": 7.2029, "minutes": 89.78, "total_pass": 70.6263, "accurate_pass": 57.536, "duels_won": 5.9639, "total_long_balls": 10.8186, "accurate_long_balls": 4.012, "total_own_half_passes": 36.7172, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9033, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6326, "crosses_total": 0.3819, "crosses_accurate": 0.068, "touches": 85.8214, "possession_lost": 14.584, "dispossessed": 0.2597, "duels_lost": 5.0823, "aerial_lost": 2.8352, "total_contest": 0.3552, "won_contest": 0.2357, "ball_recovery": 4.5, "challenges_lost": 0.8488, "fouls": 1.0259, "fouls_drawn": 1.3534, "blocks": 1.1746, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0664, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.0647, "shots_on_target": 0.0394, "big_chances_created": 0.0853, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 27.8984, "total_progression": 117.5586, "progressive_carries": 1.1798, "key_pass": 0.5715, "shots_off_target": 0.4163, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.627, "opponent_faced": "Ao Tanaka", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.0384 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1399, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0186, "team_expected_assists": 1.0608, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1632, "xa_scale": 1.0414, "opponent_lambda": 1.455, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2904, "tackles": 1.8842, "tackles_won": 1.0956, "clearances": 4.8109, "aerial_won": 2.2117, "total_shots": 0.4557, "rating": 7.2029, "minutes": 89.78, "total_pass": 70.6263, "accurate_pass": 57.536, "duels_won": 5.9639, "total_long_balls": 10.8186, "accurate_long_balls": 4.012, "total_own_half_passes": 36.7172, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9033, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6326, "crosses_total": 0.3819, "crosses_accurate": 0.068, "touches": 85.8214, "possession_lost": 14.584, "dispossessed": 0.2597, "duels_lost": 5.0823, "aerial_lost": 2.8352, "total_contest": 0.3552, "won_contest": 0.2357, "ball_recovery": 4.5, "challenges_lost": 0.8488, "fouls": 1.0259, "fouls_drawn": 1.3534, "blocks": 1.1746, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0664, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.0647, "shots_on_target": 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1.3534, "blocks": 1.1746, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0664, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.0647, "shots_on_target": 0.0394, "big_chances_created": 0.0853, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 27.8984, "total_progression": 117.5586, "progressive_carries": 1.1798, "key_pass": 0.5715, "shots_off_target": 0.4163, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.627, "opponent_faced": "Ao Tanaka", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0249, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.0384, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 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16.2044, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.1452, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.1412, "crosses_total": 4.8865, "crosses_accurate": 1.2247, "touches": 69.4156, "possession_lost": 11.5266, "dispossessed": 0.0265, "duels_lost": 1.1874, "aerial_lost": 0.8292, "total_contest": 0.1308, "won_contest": 0.0827, "ball_recovery": 3.1032, "challenges_lost": 0.1092, "fouls": 0.1727, "fouls_drawn": 0.1595, "blocks": 0.1195, "goals": 0.0403, "goal_rate": 0.0403, "assists": 0.2097, "assist_rate": 0.2097, "expected_goals": 0.061, "expected_assists": 0.1976, "shots_on_target": 0.4509, "big_chances_created": 0.4036, "xgot": 0.1038, "ball_carries": 12.4544, "total_progression": 56.7479, "progressive_carries": 1.3177, "key_pass": 1.7188, "shots_off_target": 0.2376 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.01, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8784, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", 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"antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6951, "tackles": 0.9274, "tackles_won": 0.5771, "clearances": 1.9997, "aerial_won": 0.667, "total_shots": 0.6885, "rating": 6.6428, "minutes": 79.06, "total_pass": 53.9649, "accurate_pass": 47.3457, "duels_won": 1.6307, "total_long_balls": 3.3264, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0393, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8197, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2044, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.1452, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.1412, "crosses_total": 4.8865, "crosses_accurate": 1.2247, "touches": 69.4156, "possession_lost": 11.5266, "dispossessed": 0.0265, 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"contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0084, "total": 0.5226, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055327 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.020368 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016481 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.015181 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.013599 } ], "others_margin": -0.008531 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.093159198760986, "model_output": 7.0932, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": 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"model_output": 1.2176, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.316 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1377 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0661 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.026 } ], "others": -0.099, "total": 1.2176, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.315972 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.137707 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.066055 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.029917 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0116, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1604, "expected_assists": 0.1308, "assists": 0.1457, "assist_rate": 0.1457, "expected_goals": 0.0556, "goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "shots_on_target": 0.2861, "total_shots": 1.2318, "rating": 7.3032, "minutes": 86.72, "total_pass": 62.4661, "accurate_pass": 55.9178, "duels_won": 4.2196, "total_long_balls": 2.8609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5841, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1632, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0055, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.3029, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9123, "crosses_total": 1.7062, "crosses_accurate": 0.3865, "touches": 78.2579, "possession_lost": 10.4369, "dispossessed": 1.0106, "duels_lost": 2.6569, "aerial_won": 0.5449, "aerial_lost": 0.3209, "interceptions": 1.1466, "tackles_won": 1.4391, "tackles": 2.399, "clearances": 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{ "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0184 } ], "others": -0.0956, "total": 0.6189, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.276393 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12941 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.052867 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.052138 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018388 } ], "others_margin": -0.095676 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.852993011474609, "model_output": 6.853, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0052 } ], "others": -0.0179, "total": 6.853, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034681 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.013812 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012076 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.00988 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.005199 } ], "others_margin": -0.017885 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0098, quality 0.746)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.76, "expected_assists": 0.0641, "assists": 0.0729, "assist_rate": 0.0729, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.1966, "total_shots": 0.6249, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 34.2627, "accurate_pass": 29.8378, "duels_won": 3.1937, "total_long_balls": 1.79, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7366, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0612, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7766, "crosses_total": 1.2057, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 8.774, "dispossessed": 0.6413, "duels_lost": 3.2933, "aerial_won": 0.5229, "aerial_lost": 0.4787, "interceptions": 1.3002, "tackles_won": 0.8047, "tackles": 1.1616, "clearances": 1.2721, "total_contest": 0.9686, "won_contest": 0.5477, "challenges_lost": 0.8101, "fouls": 0.9423, "fouls_drawn": 0.9615, "blocks": 0.1729, "big_chances_created": 0.0747, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.055, "ball_carries": 11.5513, "total_progression": 39.2798, "progressive_carries": 0.659, "shots_off_target": 0.4283 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 34000000, "quality_factor": 0.7455, "boost_factor": 1.0098, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0100)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.76, "expected_assists": 0.0641, "assists": 0.0722, "assist_rate": 0.0722, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "goals": 0.0581, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "shots_on_target": 0.1946, "total_shots": 0.6187, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 34.2627, "accurate_pass": 29.8378, "duels_won": 3.1937, "total_long_balls": 1.79, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7366, 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0.9615, "after": 0.9724 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6249, "after": 0.6187 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.76, "expected_assists": 0.0641, "assists": 0.0722, "assist_rate": 0.0722, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "goals": 0.0581, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "shots_on_target": 0.1946, "total_shots": 0.6229, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 34.2627, "accurate_pass": 29.8378, "duels_won": 3.1937, "total_long_balls": 1.79, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7366, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0612, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7766, "crosses_total": 1.2039, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 8.774, "dispossessed": 0.6413, "duels_lost": 3.2933, "aerial_won": 0.5229, "aerial_lost": 0.4787, "interceptions": 1.2975, "tackles_won": 0.8018, "tackles": 1.1616, "clearances": 1.2721, 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} } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.76, "expected_assists": 0.0641, "assist_rate": 0.0722, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1946, "total_shots": 0.6229, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 34.2627, "accurate_pass": 29.8378, "duels_won": 3.1937, "total_long_balls": 1.79, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7366, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0612, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7766, "crosses_total": 1.2039, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 8.774, "dispossessed": 0.6413, "duels_lost": 3.2933, "aerial_won": 0.5229, "aerial_lost": 0.4787, "interceptions": 1.2975, "tackles_won": 0.8018, "tackles": 1.1616, "clearances": 1.2721, "total_contest": 0.9686, "won_contest": 0.5477, "challenges_lost": 0.8101, "fouls": 0.938, "fouls_drawn": 0.9724, "blocks": 0.1729, "big_chances_created": 0.0747, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.055, "ball_carries": 11.5513, "total_progression": 39.2798, "progressive_carries": 0.659, "shots_off_target": 0.4283, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor, Mateo Joseph, Ethan Ampadu", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.1399, xG scale 1.1632, xA scale 1.0414, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.76, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "assist_rate": 0.0722, 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"shots_off_target": 0.4283, "opponent_faced": "Noah Okafor, Mateo Joseph, Ethan Ampadu", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0325, "creation_factor": 1.071 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1399, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0186, "team_expected_assists": 1.0608, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1632, "xa_scale": 1.0414, "opponent_lambda": 1.455, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0547, "after": 0.0636 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.76, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "assist_rate": 0.0722, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0636, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1946, "total_shots": 0.6229, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 34.2627, "accurate_pass": 29.8378, "duels_won": 3.1937, "total_long_balls": 1.79, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7366, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0612, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7766, "crosses_total": 1.2039, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 8.774, "dispossessed": 0.6413, "duels_lost": 3.2933, "aerial_won": 0.5229, "aerial_lost": 0.4787, "interceptions": 1.2975, "tackles_won": 0.8018, "tackles": 1.1616, "clearances": 1.2721, "total_contest": 0.9686, "won_contest": 0.5477, "challenges_lost": 0.8101, "fouls": 0.938, "fouls_drawn": 0.9724, "blocks": 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goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.76, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "assist_rate": 0.0722, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0636, "goal_rate": 0.0581, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1946, "total_shots": 0.6229, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 78.77, "total_pass": 34.2627, "accurate_pass": 29.8378, "duels_won": 3.1937, "total_long_balls": 1.79, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7366, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0612, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7766, "crosses_total": 1.2039, "crosses_accurate": 0.0818, "touches": 50.4653, "possession_lost": 8.774, "dispossessed": 0.6413, "duels_lost": 3.2933, "aerial_won": 0.5229, "aerial_lost": 0.4787, "interceptions": 1.2975, "tackles_won": 0.8018, "tackles": 1.1616, "clearances": 1.2721, "total_contest": 0.9686, "won_contest": 0.5477, "challenges_lost": 0.8101, "fouls": 0.938, "fouls_drawn": 0.9724, "blocks": 0.1729, 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1.0556, "after": 1.0781 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.7571, "after": 1.7629 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4068, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "assists": 0.0492, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "expected_goals": 0.0391, "goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0467, "shots_on_target": 0.1287, "total_shots": 0.5538, "rating": 6.8804, "minutes": 81.44, "total_pass": 50.3593, "accurate_pass": 44.1492, "duels_won": 5.7376, "total_long_balls": 1.8967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8412, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8899, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9754, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.4693, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1736, "crosses_total": 0.1654, "crosses_accurate": 0.0936, "touches": 64.0898, "possession_lost": 8.177, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 5.2922, "aerial_won": 1.4633, "aerial_lost": 2.0028, "interceptions": 1.6, "tackles_won": 1.7629, "tackles": 3.0763, "clearances": 2.4252, 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26.4693, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1736, "crosses_total": 0.1654, "crosses_accurate": 0.0936, "touches": 64.0898, "possession_lost": 8.177, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 5.2922, "aerial_won": 1.4633, "aerial_lost": 2.0028, "interceptions": 1.6, "tackles_won": 1.7629, "tackles": 3.0763, "clearances": 2.4252, "total_contest": 1.0867, "won_contest": 0.6881, "challenges_lost": 1.2573, "fouls": 1.0781, "fouls_drawn": 0.5052, "blocks": 0.4591, "big_chances_created": 0.0059, "big_chances_missed": 0.0421, "xgot": 0.0095, "ball_carries": 15.4618, "total_progression": 35.503, "progressive_carries": 0.554, "shots_off_target": 0.4251, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4068, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.0467, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1287, "total_shots": 0.5538, "rating": 6.8804, "minutes": 81.44, "total_pass": 50.3593, "accurate_pass": 44.1492, "duels_won": 5.7376, "total_long_balls": 1.8967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8412, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8899, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9754, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.4693, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.1736, "crosses_total": 0.1654, "crosses_accurate": 0.0936, "touches": 64.0898, "possession_lost": 8.177, "dispossessed": 0.578, "duels_lost": 5.2922, "aerial_won": 1.4633, "aerial_lost": 2.0028, "interceptions": 1.6, "tackles_won": 1.7629, "tackles": 3.0763, "clearances": 2.4252, "total_contest": 1.0867, "won_contest": 0.6881, "challenges_lost": 1.2573, "fouls": 1.0781, "fouls_drawn": 0.5052, "blocks": 0.4591, "big_chances_created": 0.0059, "big_chances_missed": 0.0421, "xgot": 0.0095, "ball_carries": 15.4618, "total_progression": 35.503, "progressive_carries": 0.554, "shots_off_target": 0.4251, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.1399, xG scale 1.1632, xA scale 1.0414, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4068, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0467, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1287, "total_shots": 0.5538, "rating": 6.8804, "minutes": 81.44, "total_pass": 50.3593, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0853, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1399, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0186, "team_expected_assists": 1.0608, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1632, "xa_scale": 1.0414, "opponent_lambda": 1.455, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0391, "after": 0.0455 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, 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"contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0106, "total": 0.0776, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.144978 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11273 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.092855 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.065513 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035935 } ], "others_margin": -0.127941 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1104574128985405, "model_output": 0.1105, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { 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"importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3266 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1358 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0366 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.024 } ], "others": -0.0454, "total": 1.3167, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.326624 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135751 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.036611 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.024557 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.024023 } ], "others_margin": -0.045432 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.095814228057861, "model_output": 7.0958, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0821 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0365 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0221 } ], "others": 0.0452, "total": 7.0958, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.082113 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.036495 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.02677 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022054 } ], "others_margin": 0.045248 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.868)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4923, "expected_assists": 0.1233, "assists": 0.0866, "assist_rate": 0.0866, "expected_goals": 0.0784, "goals": 0.1117, "goal_rate": 0.1117, "shots_on_target": 0.3484, "total_shots": 1.331, "rating": 7.0958, "minutes": 82.51, "total_pass": 59.8451, "accurate_pass": 53.8612, "duels_won": 5.3097, "total_long_balls": 4.9461, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0353, "total_own_half_passes": 23.3188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.5302, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5262, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.3309, "crosses_total": 2.9692, "crosses_accurate": 0.775, "touches": 76.829, "possession_lost": 11.1808, "dispossessed": 1.0528, "duels_lost": 4.1401, "aerial_won": 0.9478, "aerial_lost": 0.3799, "interceptions": 0.7471, "tackles_won": 1.827, "tackles": 3.2199, "clearances": 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"is_starting_11", "margin": 0.039133 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.010647 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.009598 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008733 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.007978 } ], "others_margin": 0.031887 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024022.0, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 50, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0797, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025026.0, "match_date": 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"ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023981.0, "match_date": "2026-03-05", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2109, "combined_rank_score": 800.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 509.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8531, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 1091.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7464, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Richarlison", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chris Long", "ranking": 2104 }, { "player_name": "Richard Ríos", "ranking": 2105 }, { "player_name": "Abdel Rahim", "ranking": 2106 }, { "player_name": "Matthew Sheridan", "ranking": 2107 }, { "player_name": "Lewis Miley", "ranking": 2108 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Antonio Díaz", "ranking": 2110 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Palacios", "ranking": 2111 }, { "player_name": "Han-gil Kim", "ranking": 2112 }, { "player_name": "Sardor Abduraimov", "ranking": 2113 }, { "player_name": "Alou Kuol", "ranking": 2114 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.757, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2173 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5269, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1516 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0401 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": 0.0563, "total": 0.8351, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.640773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.252891 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.057385 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.032883 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.027573 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.019917 } ], "others_margin": 0.069863 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.154540538787842, "model_output": 2.1545, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0526 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0309 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0307 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3756, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5122 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1158 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0238 } ], "others": 0.0751, "total": 2.1545, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.375643, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.5122 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.115846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.027608 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.02444 }, { "name": "aerialWon", 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"margin": -0.138043 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.121038 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.103768 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.070191 } ], "others_margin": -0.386628 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.584229588508606, "model_output": 0.5842, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1758 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0668 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0468 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0318 } ], "others": -0.0986, "total": 0.5842, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.22645 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080112 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.060269 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.053591 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.045545 } ], "others_margin": -0.155811 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7463698387146, "model_output": 6.7464, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0415, "total": 6.7464, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051099 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.018843 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01419 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.013 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.009526 } ], "others_margin": -0.041556 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.335, "goals": 0.3503, "goal_rate": 0.3503, "shots_on_target": 0.8374, "total_shots": 2.1606, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "key_pass": 0.5859, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 80.1, "total_pass": 13.0006, "accurate_pass": 8.4534, "duels_won": 5.5867, "total_long_balls": 0.6947, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3062, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5467, "crosses_total": 0.6006, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0869, "possession_lost": 9.3631, "dispossessed": 1.2214, "duels_lost": 7.8883, "aerial_lost": 4.0888, "total_contest": 1.7269, "won_contest": 0.7328, "ball_recovery": 2.2975, "challenges_lost": 0.5917, "fouls": 0.9924, "fouls_drawn": 1.2612, "assists": 0.0377, "assist_rate": 0.0377, "interceptions": 0.1603, "tackles_won": 0.5902, "tackles": 0.9851, "clearances": 1.8215, "blocks": 0.1406, "big_chances_created": 0.1501, "big_chances_missed": 0.5291, "xgot": 0.3983, "offsides": 0.5661, "ball_carries": 4.9437, "total_progression": 10.9, "progressive_carries": 0.4687, "shots_off_target": 1.3232 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0040)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.335, "goals": 0.3489, "goal_rate": 0.3489, "shots_on_target": 0.8341, "total_shots": 2.152, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "key_pass": 0.5859, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 80.1, "total_pass": 13.0006, "accurate_pass": 8.4534, "duels_won": 5.5867, "total_long_balls": 0.6947, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3062, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5467, "crosses_total": 0.5982, 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"final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.335, "goals": 0.3489, "goal_rate": 0.3489, "shots_on_target": 0.8341, "total_shots": 2.1573, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "key_pass": 0.5859, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 80.1, "total_pass": 13.0006, "accurate_pass": 8.4534, "duels_won": 5.5867, "total_long_balls": 0.6947, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3062, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5467, "crosses_total": 0.5982, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0869, "possession_lost": 9.3631, "dispossessed": 1.2214, "duels_lost": 7.8883, "aerial_lost": 4.0888, "total_contest": 1.7269, "won_contest": 0.7328, "ball_recovery": 2.2975, "challenges_lost": 0.5917, "fouls": 0.9986, "fouls_drawn": 1.2612, "assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "interceptions": 0.1597, "tackles_won": 0.5878, "tackles": 0.9851, "clearances": 1.8215, "blocks": 0.1406, "big_chances_created": 0.1501, 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"ball_recovery": 2.2975, "challenges_lost": 0.5917, "fouls": 0.9986, "fouls_drawn": 1.2612, "assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "interceptions": 0.1597, "tackles_won": 0.5878, "tackles": 0.9851, "clearances": 1.8215, "blocks": 0.1406, "big_chances_created": 0.1501, "big_chances_missed": 0.456, "xgot": 0.3433, "offsides": 0.5638, "ball_carries": 4.9437, "total_progression": 10.9, "progressive_carries": 0.4687, "shots_off_target": 1.1403, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8618, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Justin, Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "James Justin, Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "James Justin, Tarik Muharemović", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8618, "skill_edge": -0.078, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.5748, "defender_skill": 0.7482, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "James Justin", "market_value": 16500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6503 }, { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "market_value": 43000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8462 } ], "xg_override": 0.2887 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1573, "after": 1.8592 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3232, "after": 1.1403 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8341, "after": 0.7188 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.5291, "after": 0.456 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3983, "after": 0.3433 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3489, "after": 0.3007 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.335, "after": 0.2887 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2887, "goal_rate": 0.3007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7188, "total_shots": 1.8592, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "key_pass": 0.5859, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 80.1, "total_pass": 13.0006, "accurate_pass": 8.4534, "duels_won": 5.5867, "total_long_balls": 0.6947, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3062, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5467, "crosses_total": 0.5982, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0869, "possession_lost": 9.3631, "dispossessed": 1.2214, "duels_lost": 7.8883, "aerial_lost": 4.0888, "total_contest": 1.7269, "won_contest": 0.7328, "ball_recovery": 2.2975, "challenges_lost": 0.5917, "fouls": 0.9986, "fouls_drawn": 1.2612, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1597, "tackles_won": 0.5878, "tackles": 0.9851, "clearances": 1.8215, "blocks": 0.1406, "big_chances_created": 0.1501, "big_chances_missed": 0.456, "xgot": 0.3433, "offsides": 0.5638, "ball_carries": 4.9437, "total_progression": 10.9, "progressive_carries": 0.4687, "shots_off_target": 1.1403, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8618, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Justin, Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "James Justin, Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.1399, xG scale 1.1632, xA scale 1.0414, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3358, "goal_rate": 0.3007, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7188, "total_shots": 1.8592, "expected_assists": 0.0376, "key_pass": 0.5859, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 80.1, "total_pass": 13.0006, "accurate_pass": 8.4534, "duels_won": 5.5867, "total_long_balls": 0.6947, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3062, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5467, "crosses_total": 0.5982, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0869, "possession_lost": 9.3631, "dispossessed": 1.2214, "duels_lost": 7.8883, "aerial_lost": 4.0888, "total_contest": 1.7269, "won_contest": 0.7328, "ball_recovery": 2.2975, "challenges_lost": 0.5917, "fouls": 0.9986, "fouls_drawn": 1.2612, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "assists": 0, 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"fifa_rank": 1091.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3358, "goal_rate": 0.3007, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.7188, "total_shots": 1.8592, "expected_assists": 0.0376, "key_pass": 0.5859, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 80.1, "total_pass": 13.0006, "accurate_pass": 8.4534, "duels_won": 5.5867, "total_long_balls": 0.6947, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3062, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5467, "crosses_total": 0.5982, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0869, "possession_lost": 9.3631, "dispossessed": 1.2214, "duels_lost": 7.8883, "aerial_lost": 4.0888, "total_contest": 1.7269, "won_contest": 0.7328, "ball_recovery": 2.2975, "challenges_lost": 0.5917, "fouls": 0.9986, "fouls_drawn": 1.2612, 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"ranking": 226 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", 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0.8314641714096069, "model_output": 0.8315, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7267 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.026 } ], "others": 0.103, "total": 0.8315, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.741753 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.051919 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.045996 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.036768 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", 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"margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.872496 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.4912 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.123544 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.089606 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.041151 } ], "others_margin": -0.222583 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1910325288772583, "model_output": 1.191, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6053 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1595 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0247 } ], "others": 0.1622, "total": 1.191, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.605334 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.159487 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.049212 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.027927 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024718 } ], "others_margin": 0.162081 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8613667488098145, "model_output": 6.8614, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0414 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0174 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 6.8614, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.041443 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.026707 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.02438 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023469 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017449 } ], "others_margin": -0.017448 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.329, "tackles": 0.8395, "tackles_won": 0.5649, "clearances": 0.6536, "aerial_won": 0.2195, "total_shots": 1.2026, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.14, "total_pass": 25.989, "accurate_pass": 22.5551, "duels_won": 1.0097, "total_long_balls": 3.3935, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7501, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6444, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3751, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.18, "crosses_total": 2.1796, "crosses_accurate": 0.1946, "touches": 35.8179, "possession_lost": 5.8081, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0097, "aerial_lost": 0.3168, "total_contest": 0.6181, "won_contest": 0.4236, "ball_recovery": 1.8724, "challenges_lost": 0.2289, "fouls": 0.2693, "fouls_drawn": 0.2693, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0571, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.4087, "total_progression": 55.2855, "progressive_carries": 1.6373, "key_pass": 0.7808, "shots_off_target": 1.2026 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0049)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3274, "tackles": 0.8395, "tackles_won": 0.5621, "clearances": 0.6536, "aerial_won": 0.2195, "total_shots": 1.2022, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.14, "total_pass": 25.989, "accurate_pass": 22.5551, "duels_won": 1.0097, "total_long_balls": 3.3935, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7501, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6444, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3751, "total_opp_half_passes": 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"contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0337, "total": 0.1971, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.17074 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.088428 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018126 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.015282 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.011488 } ], "others_margin": -0.03365 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.698208332061768, "model_output": 6.6982, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0399 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0176 } ], "others": -0.0314, "total": 6.6982, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.039895 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03027 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021729 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.020328 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.017639 } ], "others_margin": -0.031252 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.3401, "shots_off_target": 0.1285, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.22, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.1399, xG scale 1.1632, xA scale 1.0414, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2309, "tackles": 0.4562, "tackles_won": 0.258, "clearances": 0.4318, "aerial_won": 0.2084, "total_shots": 0.1285, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.22, "total_pass": 9.8986, "accurate_pass": 8.5522, 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0.0311, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024020.0, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3809, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1964, "combined_rank_score": 758.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 391.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.95, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 1126.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6701, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucas Bergvall", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Zafar Hakimov", "ranking": 1959 }, { "player_name": "Jani Atanasov", "ranking": 1960 }, { "player_name": "Isi", "ranking": 1961 }, { "player_name": "Can Uzun", "ranking": 1962 }, { "player_name": "Dan Ndoye", "ranking": 1963 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matías Marín", "ranking": 1965 }, { "player_name": "Reno Piscopo", "ranking": 1966 }, { "player_name": "Lee Kang In", "ranking": 1967 }, { "player_name": "Kenny Tete", "ranking": 1968 }, { "player_name": "Djed Spence", "ranking": 1969 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.755, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", 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{ "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3782 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2263 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0434 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": 0.0186, "total": 0.3575, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.378206 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.226295 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043407 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017985 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016093 } ], "others_margin": 0.018565 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.670088291168213, "model_output": 6.6701, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0767 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0246, "total": 6.6701, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076723 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045401 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037587 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009491 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.00652 } ], "others_margin": -0.024635 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3261, "expected_assists": 0.033, "assists": 0.0482, "assist_rate": 0.0482, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0321, "shots_on_target": 0.1239, "total_shots": 0.3622, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 18.62, "total_pass": 9.9371, "accurate_pass": 7.9042, "duels_won": 1.5351, "total_long_balls": 0.4877, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1272, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6763, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.329, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2608, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5752, "crosses_total": 0.4871, "crosses_accurate": 0.2622, "touches": 13.9521, "possession_lost": 2.8389, "dispossessed": 0.0482, "duels_lost": 1.1089, "aerial_won": 0.1798, "aerial_lost": 0.2002, "interceptions": 0.0284, "tackles_won": 0.4394, "tackles": 0.6705, "clearances": 0.2806, "total_contest": 0.4635, "won_contest": 0.3884, "challenges_lost": 0.3196, "fouls": 0.4659, "fouls_drawn": 0.2963, "blocks": 0.0639, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0639, "xgot": 0.037, "ball_carries": 4.1228, "total_progression": 9.9592, "progressive_carries": 0.4796, "shots_off_target": 0.2383 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0034)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3261, "expected_assists": 0.033, "assists": 0.048, "assist_rate": 0.048, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "goals": 0.032, "goal_rate": 0.032, "shots_on_target": 0.1235, "total_shots": 0.361, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 18.62, "total_pass": 9.9371, "accurate_pass": 7.9042, "duels_won": 1.5351, "total_long_balls": 0.4877, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1272, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6763, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.329, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2608, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5752, "crosses_total": 0.4869, "crosses_accurate": 0.2622, "touches": 13.9521, "possession_lost": 2.8389, "dispossessed": 0.0482, "duels_lost": 1.1089, "aerial_won": 0.1798, "aerial_lost": 0.2002, "interceptions": 0.0283, "tackles_won": 0.4379, "tackles": 0.6705, "clearances": 0.2806, "total_contest": 0.4635, "won_contest": 0.3884, "challenges_lost": 0.3196, "fouls": 0.4643, "fouls_drawn": 0.2953, "blocks": 0.0639, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0639, "xgot": 0.037, "ball_carries": 4.1228, "total_progression": 9.9592, "progressive_carries": 0.4796, "shots_off_target": 0.2383 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0034, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2069, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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0.0801, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0801, "xgot": 0.0464, "ball_carries": 5.1706, "total_progression": 12.4904, "progressive_carries": 0.6015, "shots_off_target": 0.2989, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.335, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.35, "projection_minutes": 18.62, "minutes_scale": 1.2542, "appearance_probability": 0.335 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.409, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assists": 0.0602, "assist_rate": 0.0602, "expected_goals": 0.0352, "goals": 0.0401, "goal_rate": 0.0401, "shots_on_target": 0.1549, "total_shots": 0.4538, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 12.4627, "accurate_pass": 9.9131, "duels_won": 1.9253, "total_long_balls": 0.6117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1595, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1751, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.852, 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"importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0375 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0167, "total": 0.0681, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.5043 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.206228 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.148164 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.079086 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.037941 } ], "others_margin": -0.220058 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.25599831342697144, "model_output": 0.256, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4766 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2395 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0387 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0217 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 0.7913, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.476568 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.239522 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038651 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.023684 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.021703 } ], "others_margin": 0.006728 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729358673095703, "model_output": 6.7294, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0908 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": 6.7294, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.090828 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020335 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011481 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.005854 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.005372 } ], "others_margin": -0.004919 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.4113, "total_contest": 0.4746, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.3146, "fouls": 0.8202, "fouls_drawn": 0.6161, "blocks": 0.0444, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2626, "xgot": 0.2767, "ball_carries": 5.5435, "total_progression": 8.3896, "progressive_carries": 0.6096, "shots_off_target": 0.539 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.007, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0023)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3209, "expected_assists": 0.0358, "assists": 0.0414, "assist_rate": 0.0414, "expected_goals": 0.0649, "goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.7964, "rating": 6.7294, "minutes": 27.68, "total_pass": 15.3826, "accurate_pass": 12.8946, "duels_won": 2.5262, "total_long_balls": 0.8361, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1939, 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0.0371, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2193, "xgot": 0.231, "ball_carries": 4.6284, "total_progression": 7.0047, "progressive_carries": 0.509, "shots_off_target": 0.45, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.33, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.11 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.11, "projection_minutes": 27.68, "minutes_scale": 0.8349, "appearance_probability": 0.33 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2679, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assists": 0.0346, "assist_rate": 0.0346, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "goals": 0.057, "goal_rate": 0.057, "shots_on_target": 0.2147, "total_shots": 0.6649, "rating": 6.7294, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 12.8433, "accurate_pass": 10.766, "duels_won": 2.1092, "total_long_balls": 0.6981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1619, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8416, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4032, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0016, 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0.45, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.33, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.11, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.33, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0314, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.419934 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.113535 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.11236 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.104053 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05461 } ], "others_margin": -0.148689 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.46226322650909424, "model_output": 0.4623, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2385 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0731 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": -0.037, "total": 0.4623, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.422917 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.149496 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.048625 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.04713 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.04325 } ], "others_margin": -0.077111 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.678867340087891, "model_output": 6.6789, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0717 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0057 } ], "others": -0.0018, "total": 6.6789, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012235 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008603 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.005823 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.005685 } ], "others_margin": -0.00183 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.840)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0701, "goals": 0.089, "goal_rate": 0.089, "shots_on_target": 0.3313, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0.4691, "rating": 6.6789, "minutes": 18.69, "total_pass": 2.4657, "accurate_pass": 2.4452, "duels_won": 1.7916, "total_long_balls": 0.0284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0284, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4517, "crosses_total": 0.1697, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.0238, "possession_lost": 1.8885, "dispossessed": 0.2779, "duels_lost": 1.4278, "aerial_lost": 0.2471, "total_contest": 0.9454, "won_contest": 0.2923, "ball_recovery": 0.6462, "challenges_lost": 0.177, "fouls": 0.0727, "fouls_drawn": 0.7379, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0284, "tackles_won": 0.2112, 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"goals": 0.1272, "goal_rate": 0.1272, "shots_on_target": 0.4754, "total_shots": 1.2997, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "key_pass": 0.6748, "rating": 6.6789, "minutes": 26.89, "total_pass": 3.547, "accurate_pass": 3.5175, "duels_won": 2.5773, "total_long_balls": 0.0409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0409, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1178, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0883, "crosses_total": 0.2425, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5424, "possession_lost": 2.7167, "dispossessed": 0.2779, "duels_lost": 2.0539, "aerial_lost": 0.2471, "total_contest": 1.36, "won_contest": 0.4205, "ball_recovery": 0.9296, "challenges_lost": 0.177, "fouls": 0.1096, "fouls_drawn": 1.0566, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0406, "tackles_won": 0.3038, "tackles": 0.9192, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "big_chances_missed": 0.0666, "xgot": 0.1188, "offsides": 0.1119, "ball_carries": 4.2308, "total_progression": 12.6638, "progressive_carries": 0.47, "shots_off_target": 0.8243, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.367, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.89, "projection_minutes": 18.69, "minutes_scale": 1.4385, "appearance_probability": 0.367 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goals": 0.1272, "goal_rate": 0.1272, "shots_on_target": 0.4754, "total_shots": 1.2997, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "key_pass": 0.6748, "rating": 6.6789, "minutes": 26.89, "total_pass": 3.547, "accurate_pass": 3.5175, "duels_won": 2.5773, "total_long_balls": 0.0409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0409, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1178, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0883, "crosses_total": 0.2425, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5424, "possession_lost": 2.7167, "dispossessed": 0.2779, "duels_lost": 2.0539, "aerial_lost": 0.2471, "total_contest": 1.36, "won_contest": 0.4205, "ball_recovery": 0.9296, "challenges_lost": 0.177, "fouls": 0.1096, "fouls_drawn": 1.0566, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0406, "tackles_won": 0.3038, "tackles": 0.9192, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "big_chances_missed": 0.0666, "xgot": 0.1188, "offsides": 0.1119, "ball_carries": 4.2308, "total_progression": 12.6638, "progressive_carries": 0.47, "shots_off_target": 0.8243, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.367, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goal_rate": 0.1272, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4754, "total_shots": 1.2997, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "key_pass": 0.6748, "rating": 6.6789, "minutes": 26.89, "total_pass": 3.547, "accurate_pass": 3.5175, "duels_won": 2.5773, "total_long_balls": 0.0409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0409, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1178, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0883, "crosses_total": 0.2425, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5424, "possession_lost": 2.7167, "dispossessed": 0.2779, "duels_lost": 2.0539, "aerial_lost": 0.2471, "total_contest": 1.36, "won_contest": 0.4205, "ball_recovery": 0.9296, "challenges_lost": 0.177, "fouls": 0.1096, "fouls_drawn": 1.0566, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0406, "tackles_won": 0.3038, "tackles": 0.9192, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "big_chances_missed": 0.0666, "xgot": 0.1188, "offsides": 0.1119, "ball_carries": 4.2308, "total_progression": 12.6638, "progressive_carries": 0.47, "shots_off_target": 0.8243, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.367, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.89, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.367, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goal_rate": 0.1272, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4754, "total_shots": 1.2997, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "key_pass": 0.6748, "rating": 6.6789, "minutes": 26.89, "total_pass": 3.547, "accurate_pass": 3.5175, "duels_won": 2.5773, "total_long_balls": 0.0409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0409, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1178, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0883, "crosses_total": 0.2425, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5424, "possession_lost": 2.7167, "dispossessed": 0.2779, "duels_lost": 2.0539, "aerial_lost": 0.2471, "total_contest": 1.36, "won_contest": 0.4205, "ball_recovery": 0.9296, "challenges_lost": 0.177, "fouls": 0.1096, "fouls_drawn": 1.0566, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0406, "tackles_won": 0.3038, "tackles": 0.9192, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "big_chances_missed": 0.0666, "xgot": 0.1188, 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"is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 176, "market_value": 52000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 66, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, 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0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2922 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0561 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0402 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.041 } ], "others": 0.1196, "total": 0.6938, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.548881 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.131426 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.078968 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.078431 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.074131 } ], "others_margin": 0.188887 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.89420747756958, "model_output": 6.8942, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0961 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0842 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0514 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0153 } ], "others": 0.0374, "total": 6.8942, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.096089 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.084245 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.051388 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.028659 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.015311 } ], "others_margin": 0.03736 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0652, "goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.0995, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9284, "expected_assists": 0.0946, "key_pass": 0.704, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 7.1032, "accurate_pass": 5.6904, "duels_won": 1.3487, "total_long_balls": 0.2925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8857, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6968, "crosses_total": 1.4237, "crosses_accurate": 0.1671, "touches": 13.4232, "possession_lost": 4.3535, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.2643, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 1.4452, "won_contest": 0.5487, "ball_recovery": 0.9519, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.582, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0437, "tackles_won": 0.218, "tackles": 0.218, "clearances": 0.2535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0352, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 5.7719, "total_progression": 44.2114, "progressive_carries": 2.1208, "shots_off_target": 0.6361 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0978, "goals": 0.1492, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.1419, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.85, "projection_minutes": 17.71, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.63 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0978, "goals": 0.1492, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.1419, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0978, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.1419, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.1399, xG scale 1.1632, xA scale 1.0414, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1399, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0186, "team_expected_assists": 1.0608, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1632, "xa_scale": 1.0414, "opponent_lambda": 1.455, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.63 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0978, "after": 0.0717 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1419, "after": 0.0931 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1302, "fifa_rank": 697.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0678, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "scorer_weight": 0.0896, "squad_weight_total": 1.4241, "weight_share": 0.0629, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.63, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Richarlison", "weight": 0.3477, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3477, "runner_up": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3002 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0678, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0865, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0865, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0745, "squad_weight_total": 1.0537, "weight_share": 0.0707, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.63, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Andy Robertson", "weight": 0.2159, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2159, "runner_up": "Xavi Simons", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1841, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Richarlison" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Sávio": { "player_id": 1046795, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 176, "market_value": 52000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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0, "assist_probability": 0.0865, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879.0, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1285, "expected_assists": 0.2529, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham 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-0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.548881 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.131426 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.078968 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.078431 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.074131 } ], "others_margin": 0.188887 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.89420747756958, "model_output": 6.8942, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0961 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0842 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0514 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0153 } ], "others": 0.0374, "total": 6.8942, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.096089 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.084245 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.051388 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.028659 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.015311 } ], "others_margin": 0.03736 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0652, "goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.0995, "shots_on_target": 0.2923, "total_shots": 0.9284, "expected_assists": 0.0946, "key_pass": 0.704, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 7.1032, "accurate_pass": 5.6904, "duels_won": 1.3487, "total_long_balls": 0.2925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8857, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6968, "crosses_total": 1.4237, "crosses_accurate": 0.1671, "touches": 13.4232, "possession_lost": 4.3535, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.2643, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 1.4452, "won_contest": 0.5487, "ball_recovery": 0.9519, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.582, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0437, "tackles_won": 0.218, "tackles": 0.218, "clearances": 0.2535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0352, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 5.7719, "total_progression": 44.2114, "progressive_carries": 2.1208, "shots_off_target": 0.6361 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0978, "goals": 0.1492, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.1419, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.85, "projection_minutes": 17.71, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.63 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0978, "goals": 0.1492, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.1419, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0978, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.1419, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.1399, xG scale 1.1632, xA scale 1.0414, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1399, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0186, "team_expected_assists": 1.0608, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1632, "xa_scale": 1.0414, "opponent_lambda": 1.455, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.63 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0978, "after": 0.0717 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1419, "after": 0.0931 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1302, "fifa_rank": 697.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0678, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "scorer_weight": 0.0896, "squad_weight_total": 1.4241, "weight_share": 0.0629, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.63, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Richarlison", "weight": 0.3477, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3477, "runner_up": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3002 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4385, "total_shots": 1.3927, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "key_pass": 1.056, "rating": 6.8942, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9542, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0678, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0865, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0865, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0745, "squad_weight_total": 1.0537, "weight_share": 0.0707, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.63, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Andy Robertson", "weight": 0.2159, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2159, "runner_up": "Xavi Simons", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1841, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Richarlison" ] } ] } } ] }, "Destiny Udogie": { "player_id": 983572, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 186, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, 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"others_margin": -0.031252 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0082, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3579, "tackles": 0.7054, "tackles_won": 0.398, "clearances": 0.6677, "aerial_won": 0.3223, "total_shots": 0.1987, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 15.3074, "accurate_pass": 13.2252, "duels_won": 1.9016, "total_long_balls": 0.202, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7889, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3239, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5184, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9014, "crosses_total": 0.9761, "crosses_accurate": 0.2082, "touches": 23.1607, "possession_lost": 4.4847, "dispossessed": 0.4741, "duels_lost": 2.5054, "aerial_lost": 0.3443, "total_contest": 0.8368, "won_contest": 0.3109, "ball_recovery": 1.4077, "challenges_lost": 0.4146, "fouls": 0.7466, "fouls_drawn": 0.5207, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0873, "assist_rate": 0.0873, "expected_goals": 0.0012, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1209, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2966, "total_progression": 36.9134, "progressive_carries": 0.5927, "key_pass": 0.5259, "shots_off_target": 0.1987 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0082, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3571, "tackles": 0.7054, "tackles_won": 0.3989, "clearances": 0.6677, "aerial_won": 0.3223, "total_shots": 0.1983, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 15.3074, "accurate_pass": 13.2252, "duels_won": 1.9016, "total_long_balls": 0.202, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7889, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3239, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5184, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9014, "crosses_total": 0.9775, "crosses_accurate": 0.2082, "touches": 23.1607, "possession_lost": 4.4847, "dispossessed": 0.4741, "duels_lost": 2.5054, "aerial_lost": 0.3443, "total_contest": 0.8368, "won_contest": 0.3109, "ball_recovery": 1.4077, "challenges_lost": 0.4146, "fouls": 0.7467, "fouls_drawn": 0.5213, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0871, "assist_rate": 0.0871, "expected_goals": 0.0012, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1209, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2966, "total_progression": 36.9134, "progressive_carries": 0.5927, "key_pass": 0.5259, "shots_off_target": 0.1987 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2443, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 14.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2309, "tackles": 0.4562, "tackles_won": 0.258, "clearances": 0.4318, "aerial_won": 0.2084, "total_shots": 0.1285, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.22, "total_pass": 9.8986, "accurate_pass": 8.5522, "duels_won": 1.2297, "total_long_balls": 0.1306, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7961, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7562, "crosses_total": 0.6321, "crosses_accurate": 0.1346, "touches": 14.977, "possession_lost": 2.9001, "dispossessed": 0.4741, "duels_lost": 1.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3443, "total_contest": 0.5411, "won_contest": 0.201, "ball_recovery": 0.9103, "challenges_lost": 0.4146, "fouls": 0.4829, "fouls_drawn": 0.3371, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0563, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "expected_goals": 0.0008, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0782, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0117, "total_progression": 23.8703, "progressive_carries": 0.3833, "key_pass": 0.3401, "shots_off_target": 0.1285, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.22 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.22, "projection_minutes": 21.99, "minutes_scale": 0.6467, "appearance_probability": 0.621 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2309, "tackles": 0.4562, "tackles_won": 0.258, "clearances": 0.4318, "aerial_won": 0.2084, "total_shots": 0.1285, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.22, "total_pass": 9.8986, "accurate_pass": 8.5522, "duels_won": 1.2297, "total_long_balls": 0.1306, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7961, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7562, "crosses_total": 0.6321, "crosses_accurate": 0.1346, "touches": 14.977, "possession_lost": 2.9001, "dispossessed": 0.4741, "duels_lost": 1.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3443, "total_contest": 0.5411, "won_contest": 0.201, "ball_recovery": 0.9103, "challenges_lost": 0.4146, "fouls": 0.4829, "fouls_drawn": 0.3371, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0563, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "expected_goals": 0.0008, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0782, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0117, "total_progression": 23.8703, "progressive_carries": 0.3833, "key_pass": 0.3401, "shots_off_target": 0.1285, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.22 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2309, "tackles": 0.4562, "tackles_won": 0.258, "clearances": 0.4318, "aerial_won": 0.2084, "total_shots": 0.1285, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.22, "total_pass": 9.8986, "accurate_pass": 8.5522, "duels_won": 1.2297, "total_long_balls": 0.1306, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7961, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7562, "crosses_total": 0.6321, "crosses_accurate": 0.1346, "touches": 14.977, "possession_lost": 2.9001, "dispossessed": 0.4741, "duels_lost": 1.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3443, "total_contest": 0.5411, "won_contest": 0.201, "ball_recovery": 0.9103, "challenges_lost": 0.4146, "fouls": 0.4829, "fouls_drawn": 0.3371, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0008, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0782, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0117, "total_progression": 23.8703, "progressive_carries": 0.3833, "key_pass": 0.3401, "shots_off_target": 0.1285, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.22, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.1399, xG scale 1.1632, xA scale 1.0414, team xA 1.06 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2309, "tackles": 0.4562, "tackles_won": 0.258, "clearances": 0.4318, "aerial_won": 0.2084, "total_shots": 0.1285, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.22, "total_pass": 9.8986, "accurate_pass": 8.5522, "duels_won": 1.2297, "total_long_balls": 0.1306, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7961, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7562, "crosses_total": 0.6321, "crosses_accurate": 0.1346, "touches": 14.977, "possession_lost": 2.9001, "dispossessed": 0.4741, "duels_lost": 1.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3443, "total_contest": 0.5411, "won_contest": 0.201, "ball_recovery": 0.9103, "challenges_lost": 0.4146, "fouls": 0.4829, "fouls_drawn": 0.3371, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0006, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0782, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0117, "total_progression": 23.8703, "progressive_carries": 0.3833, "key_pass": 0.3401, "shots_off_target": 0.1285, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.22, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9843, "creation_factor": 1.1529 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.326, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1399, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0186, "team_expected_assists": 1.0608, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1632, "xa_scale": 1.0414, "opponent_lambda": 1.455, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.621 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0422, "after": 0.0273 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2309, "tackles": 0.4562, "tackles_won": 0.258, "clearances": 0.4318, "aerial_won": 0.2084, "total_shots": 0.1285, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.22, "total_pass": 9.8986, "accurate_pass": 8.5522, "duels_won": 1.2297, "total_long_balls": 0.1306, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7961, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7562, "crosses_total": 0.6321, "crosses_accurate": 0.1346, "touches": 14.977, "possession_lost": 2.9001, "dispossessed": 0.4741, "duels_lost": 1.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3443, "total_contest": 0.5411, "won_contest": 0.201, "ball_recovery": 0.9103, "challenges_lost": 0.4146, "fouls": 0.4829, "fouls_drawn": 0.3371, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0006, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0782, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0117, "total_progression": 23.8703, "progressive_carries": 0.3833, "key_pass": 0.3401, "shots_off_target": 0.1285, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.22, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9843, "creation_factor": 1.1529, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1635, "fifa_rank": 882.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2309, "tackles": 0.4562, "tackles_won": 0.258, "clearances": 0.4318, "aerial_won": 0.2084, "total_shots": 0.1285, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.22, "total_pass": 9.8986, "accurate_pass": 8.5522, "duels_won": 1.2297, "total_long_balls": 0.1306, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7961, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7562, "crosses_total": 0.6321, "crosses_accurate": 0.1346, "touches": 14.977, "possession_lost": 2.9001, "dispossessed": 0.4741, "duels_lost": 1.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3443, "total_contest": 0.5411, "won_contest": 0.201, "ball_recovery": 0.9103, "challenges_lost": 0.4146, "fouls": 0.4829, "fouls_drawn": 0.3371, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0006, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0782, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0117, "total_progression": 23.8703, "progressive_carries": 0.3833, "key_pass": 0.3401, "shots_off_target": 0.1285, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.22, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0006, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9843, "creation_factor": 1.1529, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0006, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.4241, "weight_share": 0.0007, "finishing_factor": 0.9843, "appearance_weight": 0.621, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Richarlison", "weight": 0.3477, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3477, "runner_up": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3002 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2309, "tackles": 0.4562, "tackles_won": 0.258, "clearances": 0.4318, "aerial_won": 0.2084, "total_shots": 0.1285, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.22, "total_pass": 9.8986, "accurate_pass": 8.5522, "duels_won": 1.2297, "total_long_balls": 0.1306, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7961, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7562, "crosses_total": 0.6321, "crosses_accurate": 0.1346, "touches": 14.977, "possession_lost": 2.9001, "dispossessed": 0.4741, "duels_lost": 1.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3443, "total_contest": 0.5411, "won_contest": 0.201, "ball_recovery": 0.9103, "challenges_lost": 0.4146, "fouls": 0.4829, "fouls_drawn": 0.3371, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0006, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0782, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0117, "total_progression": 23.8703, "progressive_carries": 0.3833, "key_pass": 0.3401, "shots_off_target": 0.1285, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.22, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.283, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0006, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0267, "finishing_factor": 0.9843, "creation_factor": 1.1529, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0267, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "provider_weight": 0.0315, "squad_weight_total": 1.0537, "weight_share": 0.0299, "creation_factor": 1.1529, "appearance_weight": 0.621, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Andy Robertson", "weight": 0.2159, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2159, "runner_up": "Xavi Simons", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1841, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Richarlison" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.33, "expected_assists": 1.06, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 601, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 7.03, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.842, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3409, "xg_multiplier": 0.8567, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Jan Paul van Hecke and Micky van de Ven in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €57M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.341 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Noah Okafor", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 35000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.752, "defenders": [ "Archie Gray", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.804, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.221, "xg_contribution": 0.1698, "xg_multiplier": 0.9281, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Archie Gray", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 34000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.779 }, { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.779 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Okafor (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Archie Gray and Jan Paul van Hecke in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.170 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mateo Joseph", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 3700000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.446, "defenders": [ "Archie Gray", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.804, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1178, "xg_multiplier": 0.6964, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Archie Gray", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 34000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mateo Joseph (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Archie Gray and Jan Paul van Hecke in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €50M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.70 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jayden Bogle", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 19200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.623, "defenders": [ "Andy Robertson" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "xg_contribution": 0.1271, "xg_multiplier": 1.1103, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andy Robertson", "role": "RB", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jayden Bogle (LWB) is slightly favored against Andy Robertson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.127 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ao Tanaka", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 16200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.592, "defenders": [ "Marcos Senesi" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.613, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "xg_contribution": 0.0691, "xg_multiplier": 0.9599, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Senesi", "role": "LB", "market_value": 18200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.627 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ao Tanaka (RWB) is evenly matched against Marcos Senesi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ethan Ampadu", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 33000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.739, "defenders": [ "Archie Gray" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.746, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.422, "xg_contribution": 0.0411, "xg_multiplier": 0.9583, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Archie Gray", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 34000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.578 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ethan Ampadu (CM) is evenly matched against Archie Gray in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Archie Gray" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.746, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "xg_contribution": 0.0354, "xg_multiplier": 0.9173, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Archie Gray", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 34000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Gudmundsson (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Archie Gray in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mateus Fernandes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "James Justin" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.595, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.498, "xg_contribution": 0.0874, "xg_multiplier": 1.1144, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Justin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mateus Fernandes (LW) is slightly favored against James Justin in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€68M vs €16M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.087 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Sandro Tonali", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 83000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.884, "defenders": [ "Ethan Ampadu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "xg_contribution": 0.0599, "xg_multiplier": 1.077, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Ampadu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sandro Tonali (CAM) is slightly favored against Ethan Ampadu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€83M vs €33M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Xavi Simons", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "James Justin" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.595, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.469, "xg_contribution": 0.1833, "xg_multiplier": 1.0727, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Justin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.531 } ], "duel_analysis": "Xavi Simons (RW) is slightly favored against James Justin in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €16M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.183 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Richarlison", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "James Justin", "Tarik Muharemović" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.695, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2887, "xg_multiplier": 0.8618, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Justin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "role": "CB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Richarlison (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against James Justin and Tarik Muharemović in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€15M vs €30M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.289 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.685, "away_midfield_power": 0.828, "home_creative_power": 0.561, "away_creative_power": 0.891, "home_defensive_power": 0.561, "away_defensive_power": 0.659, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.453, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ethan Ampadu", "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Jayden Bogle", "Ao Tanaka" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Sandro Tonali", "Archie Gray", "Rodrigo Bentancur", "Mateus Fernandes", "Xavi Simons" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 3.3, "key_personal_duel": "Ethan Ampadu vs Sandro Tonali", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.984, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.026 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.455, "away_lambda": 1.326, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "RW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Dominic Calvert-Lewin": { "opponents": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Noah Okafor": { "opponents": [ "Archie Gray", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mateo Joseph": { "opponents": [ "Archie Gray", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jayden Bogle": { "opponents": [ "Andy Robertson", "Rodrigo Bentancur" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ao Tanaka": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Senesi", "Mateus Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ethan Ampadu": { "opponents": [ "Archie Gray", "Sandro Tonali", "Xavi Simons" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "opponents": [ "Archie Gray" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Justin": { "opponents": [ "Mateus Fernandes", "Xavi Simons", "Richarlison" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tarik Muharemović": { "opponents": [ "Richarlison" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Trafford": { "opponents": [ "Richarlison", "Sandro Tonali" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Joe Rodon": { "opponents": [ "Richarlison" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jan Paul van Hecke": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "Noah Okafor", "Mateo Joseph" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Micky van de Ven": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Archie Gray": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor", "Mateo Joseph", "Ethan Ampadu", "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andy Robertson": { "opponents": [ "Jayden Bogle" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marcos Senesi": { "opponents": [ "Ao Tanaka" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mateus Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "James Justin", "Ao Tanaka" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sandro Tonali": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Ampadu" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Xavi Simons": { "opponents": [ "James Justin", "Ethan Ampadu" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Richarlison": { "opponents": [ "James Justin", "Tarik Muharemović" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rodrigo Bentancur": { "opponents": [ "Jayden Bogle" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Antonín Kinský": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor", "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Sandro Tonali will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.90, Away: 0.62. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9358, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8743, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.143, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1516, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9125, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9288, "home_midfield_factor": 0.984, "away_midfield_factor": 1.026, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6542, "away_avg_quality": 0.7251, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0709, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.4979, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.603, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.4583, "elite_count_gap": -4, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1834, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1009, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0587, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9012, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0384 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.984, "result": 1.0218 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 0.9707 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.2611 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9213, "result": 1.1619 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9358, "result": 1.0872 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9125, "result": 0.9922 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.143, "result": 1.1352 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1352, "result": 1.1352, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1834, "factor": 0.9413, "pre": 1.1352, "result": 1.0685 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0685 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.289 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.289 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.289, "result": 1.289, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.289 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9643, "pre": 1.289, "result": 1.243, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.243 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.243 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.243, "result": 1.243, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.159, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.455 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6193, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 0.8934 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.026, "result": 0.9167 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 0.9625 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9625 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9086, "result": 0.8745 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8743, "result": 0.7646 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9288, "result": 0.7102 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1516, "result": 0.8618 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8618, "result": 0.8618, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1834, "factor": 1.1009, "pre": 0.8618, "result": 0.9487 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9487 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1678, "result": 1.1168 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.1168 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1168, "result": 1.117, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.117 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0357, "pre": 1.117, "result": 1.1569, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.157 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.157 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.157, "result": 1.157, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.159, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.326 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1678, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.243, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.157, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.289, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1168, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.159, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.455, "final_away_lambda": 1.326 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9213, "attack_index": 0.929, "defense_concede_index": 0.877, "form_multiplier": 0.996, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.27, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.2, "team_ppg": 1.28, "opponent_ppg": 1.34 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9086, "attack_index": 0.877, "defense_concede_index": 0.892, "form_multiplier": 1.004, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.2, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.22, "team_ppg": 1.34, "opponent_ppg": 1.28 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Leeds vs Tottenham. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.289, Away 1.117). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.455, Away 1.326 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.455, "away_lambda": 1.326, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.289, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.117 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.159, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:31:45Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }