{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Man Utd", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261108", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1043, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1043, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0662, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Man Utd", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2422, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1149 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1043 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0968 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0893 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0662 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0629, "0-1": 0.0662, "0-2": 0.0363, "0-3": 0.0131, "0-4": 0.0036, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.1043, "1-1": 0.1149, "1-2": 0.0617, "1-3": 0.0223, "1-4": 0.006, "1-5": 0.0013, "2-0": 0.0893, "2-1": 0.0968, "2-2": 0.0524, "2-3": 0.0189, "2-4": 0.0051, "2-5": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0506, "3-1": 0.0548, "3-2": 0.0297, "3-3": 0.0107, "3-4": 0.0029, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0215, "4-1": 0.0232, "4-2": 0.0126, "4-3": 0.0045, "4-4": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0073, "5-1": 0.0079, "5-2": 0.0043, "5-3": 0.0015, "6-0": 0.0021, "6-1": 0.0022, "6-2": 0.0012, "7-0": 0.0005, "7-1": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5167, "draw": 0.2422, "away_win": 0.2412 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.526, "under_2_5_goals": 0.474, "btts_yes": 0.5412, "btts_no": 0.4588, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3386, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1831 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.89, "MCR": 7.04, "ATR": 6.94, "GK": 6.9 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.86, "ATR": 7.17, "GK": 7.27 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Man Utd vs Aston Villa. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Man Utd 6W-2D-2L vs Aston Villa over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Bryan Mbeumo", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Kobbie Mainoo vs Johan Manzambi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.68, "home_lambda": 1.698, "away_lambda": 1.083, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 6, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 1.0286, "away_multiplier": 0.9714 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1149, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5167, "draw": 0.2422, "away_win": 0.2412 }, "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5167, "fair_spread": 0.615, "fair_total": 2.781, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.698, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.083, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5412, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3386, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1831, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.5466, "probability": 0.4211, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.3713, "probability": 0.3102, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.2786, "probability": 0.2432, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Johan Manzambi (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.1411, "probability": 0.1316, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.781, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 982, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.7, "possession_home_pct": 50.1, "possession_away_pct": 49.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5167, "script": "Man Utd is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.61 goals and fair total 2.78.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Aston Villa must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man Utd lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Aston Villa chance creation leans on Nicolas Jackson against Matthijs de Ligt, Harry Maguire in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Man Utd: starters carry the main goal usage through Bryan Mbeumo; bench watchlist: Benjamin Šeško, Leny Yoro, Mason Mount.", "Aston Villa: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Ibrahim Mbaye, Matteo Ruggeri, Brian Madjo.", "Assist usage should flow through Bruno Fernandes; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man Utd tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Aston Villa is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man Utd.", "Aston Villa wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Man Utd": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Senne Lammens": { "player_id": 964753, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0092, "rating": 6.9019, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 18, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 36, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.7163, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 10.307, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.085, "shots_faced": 10.3, "expected_saves": 2.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.87, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Johan Manzambi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363904.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 8, "goals_prevented": 0.5295 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363899.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester 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2, "goals_prevented": 0.3018 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 551, "combined_rank_score": 305.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 229.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 381.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9019, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Senne Lammens", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Raniele", "ranking": 546 }, { "player_name": "David Button", "ranking": 547 }, { "player_name": "Demethryus", "ranking": 548 }, { "player_name": "Pil-su Choi", "ranking": 549 }, { "player_name": "Aaron Mayol", "ranking": 550 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Agustín Arce", "ranking": 552 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Panach Olmo", "ranking": 553 }, { "player_name": "Edu Altozano", "ranking": 554 }, { "player_name": "Joseph Otunenche", "ranking": 555 }, { "player_name": "Dean Huijsen", "ranking": 556 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0086, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester Utd, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.002, "goals_prevented": 0.0091, "rating": 6.9019, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.6309, "accurate_pass": 17.4486, "total_long_balls": 14.5796, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6526, "touches": 36.1508, "clearances": 0.7612, "ball_recovery": 7.8018, "high_claims": 1.0017, "punches": 0.7102, "aerial_won": 0.207, "sweeper_actions": 1.1795, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0147, "saves_inside_box": 2.385, "possession_lost": 10.2191, "duels_won": 0.3374, "duels_lost": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1307, "total_own_half_passes": 16.573, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0294 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-31", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": 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0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 14.0295, "accurateLongBalls": 4.6526, "possessionLostCtrl": 10.2191, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2831, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.4857, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.0148 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.002047538757324, "model_output": 3.002, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0382 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0106 } ], "others": 0.0022, "total": 3.002, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.012976 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.007283 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.00655 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.004075 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.003538 } ], "others_margin": 0.000747 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.009099301882088184, "model_output": 0.0091, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": 0.0078, "total": 0.0091, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.020551 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015799 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.013143 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.012361 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007501 } ], "others_margin": 0.007756 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.90194034576416, "model_output": 6.9019, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0279, "goals_prevented": 0.0092, "rating": 6.9019, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.8685, "accurate_pass": 17.5987, "total_long_balls": 14.705, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6926, "touches": 36.4617, "clearances": 0.7677, "ball_recovery": 7.8689, "high_claims": 1.0103, "punches": 0.7163, "aerial_won": 0.2088, "sweeper_actions": 1.1896, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0234, "saves_inside_box": 2.4055, "possession_lost": 10.307, "duels_won": 0.3403, "duels_lost": 0.142, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1318, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1501 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 38000000, "quality_factor": 0.7699, "boost_factor": 1.0086, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0229, "goals_prevented": 0.0092, "rating": 6.9019, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.8685, "accurate_pass": 17.5987, "total_long_balls": 14.705, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6926, "touches": 36.4617, "clearances": 0.7677, "ball_recovery": 7.8689, "high_claims": 1.0103, "punches": 0.7163, "aerial_won": 0.2088, "sweeper_actions": 1.1896, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0234, "saves_inside_box": 2.4055, "possession_lost": 10.307, "duels_won": 0.3403, "duels_lost": 0.142, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1306, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1501 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.0229, "goals_prevented": 0.0092, "rating": 6.9019, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.8685, "accurate_pass": 17.5987, "total_long_balls": 14.705, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6926, "touches": 36.4617, "clearances": 0.7677, "ball_recovery": 7.8689, "high_claims": 1.0103, "punches": 0.7163, "aerial_won": 0.2088, "sweeper_actions": 1.1896, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0234, "saves_inside_box": 2.4055, "possession_lost": 10.307, "duels_won": 0.3403, "duels_lost": 0.142, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1306, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1501 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0229, "goals_prevented": 0.0092, "rating": 6.9019, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.8685, "accurate_pass": 17.5987, "total_long_balls": 14.705, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6926, "touches": 36.4617, "clearances": 0.7677, "ball_recovery": 7.8689, "high_claims": 1.0103, "punches": 0.7163, "aerial_won": 0.2088, "sweeper_actions": 1.1896, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0234, "saves_inside_box": 2.4055, "possession_lost": 10.307, "duels_won": 0.3403, "duels_lost": 0.142, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1306, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1501, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.085, "shots_faced": 10.3, "expected_saves": 2.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.87, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Johan Manzambi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson, Johan Manzambi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.085 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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"scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.7229, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.5298, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5298, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4073 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0229, "goals_prevented": 0.0092, "rating": 6.9019, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.8685, "accurate_pass": 17.5987, "total_long_balls": 14.705, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6926, "touches": 36.4617, "clearances": 0.7677, "ball_recovery": 7.8689, "high_claims": 1.0103, "punches": 0.7163, "aerial_won": 0.2088, "sweeper_actions": 1.1896, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0234, "saves_inside_box": 2.4055, "possession_lost": 10.307, "duels_won": 0.3403, "duels_lost": 0.142, 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"contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0201 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.67, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.17448 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049159 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.021821 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.0215 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02014 } ], "others_margin": -0.011688 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.898684024810791, "model_output": 6.8987, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": 0.0249, "total": 6.8987, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.041838 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.016726 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.016032 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013607 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013138 } ], "others_margin": 0.024838 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 13, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0151, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1174, "tackles": 1.2828, "tackles_won": 0.7235, "clearances": 6.2737, "aerial_won": 3.4898, "total_shots": 0.6801, "rating": 6.8987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.9551, "accurate_pass": 42.9599, "duels_won": 5.7105, "total_long_balls": 3.325, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2402, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7149, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9016, "crosses_total": 0.3135, "crosses_accurate": 0.2663, "touches": 62.3919, "possession_lost": 7.028, "dispossessed": 0.1252, "duels_lost": 3.5197, "aerial_lost": 2.5396, "total_contest": 0.0813, "won_contest": 0.0472, "ball_recovery": 2.9412, "challenges_lost": 0.473, "fouls": 0.4246, "fouls_drawn": 0.3514, "blocks": 0.392, "goals": 0.1252, "goal_rate": 0.1252, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1327, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.2776, "xgot": 0.2, "ball_carries": 17.6158, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2191, "shots_off_target": 0.3831 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0151, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 13, "history_shrink": 0.2778, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1174, "tackles": 1.2828, "tackles_won": 0.7235, "clearances": 6.2737, "aerial_won": 3.4898, "total_shots": 0.6801, "rating": 6.8987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.9551, "accurate_pass": 42.9599, "duels_won": 5.7105, "total_long_balls": 3.325, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2402, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7149, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9016, "crosses_total": 0.3135, "crosses_accurate": 0.2663, "touches": 62.3919, "possession_lost": 7.028, "dispossessed": 0.1252, "duels_lost": 3.5197, "aerial_lost": 2.5396, "total_contest": 0.0813, "won_contest": 0.0472, "ball_recovery": 2.9412, "challenges_lost": 0.473, "fouls": 0.4246, "fouls_drawn": 0.3514, "blocks": 0.392, "goals": 0.1252, "goal_rate": 0.1252, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1327, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.2776, "xgot": 0.2, "ball_carries": 17.6158, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2191, "shots_off_target": 0.3831 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1174, "tackles": 1.2828, "tackles_won": 0.7235, "clearances": 6.2737, "aerial_won": 3.4898, "total_shots": 0.6801, "rating": 6.8987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.9551, "accurate_pass": 42.9599, "duels_won": 5.7105, "total_long_balls": 3.325, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2402, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7149, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9016, "crosses_total": 0.3135, "crosses_accurate": 0.2663, "touches": 62.3919, "possession_lost": 7.028, "dispossessed": 0.1252, "duels_lost": 3.5197, "aerial_lost": 2.5396, "total_contest": 0.0813, "won_contest": 0.0472, "ball_recovery": 2.9412, "challenges_lost": 0.473, "fouls": 0.4246, "fouls_drawn": 0.3514, "blocks": 0.392, "goals": 0.1252, "goal_rate": 0.1252, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1327, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.2776, "xgot": 0.2, "ball_carries": 17.6158, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2191, "shots_off_target": 0.3831, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1174, "tackles": 1.2828, "tackles_won": 0.7235, "clearances": 6.2737, "aerial_won": 3.4898, "total_shots": 0.6801, "rating": 6.8987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.9551, "accurate_pass": 42.9599, "duels_won": 5.7105, "total_long_balls": 3.325, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2402, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7149, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9016, "crosses_total": 0.3135, "crosses_accurate": 0.2663, "touches": 62.3919, "possession_lost": 7.028, "dispossessed": 0.1252, "duels_lost": 3.5197, "aerial_lost": 2.5396, "total_contest": 0.0813, "won_contest": 0.0472, "ball_recovery": 2.9412, "challenges_lost": 0.473, "fouls": 0.4246, "fouls_drawn": 0.3514, "blocks": 0.392, "goal_rate": 0.1252, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1327, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.2776, "xgot": 0.2, "ball_carries": 17.6158, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2191, "shots_off_target": 0.3831, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.2053, xG scale 1.4087, xA scale 1.4087, team xA 1.16 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1174, "tackles": 1.2828, "tackles_won": 0.7235, "clearances": 6.2737, "aerial_won": 3.4898, "total_shots": 0.6801, "rating": 6.8987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.9551, "accurate_pass": 42.9599, "duels_won": 5.7105, "total_long_balls": 3.325, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2402, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7149, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9016, "crosses_total": 0.3135, "crosses_accurate": 0.2663, "touches": 62.3919, "possession_lost": 7.028, "dispossessed": 0.1252, "duels_lost": 3.5197, "aerial_lost": 2.5396, "total_contest": 0.0813, "won_contest": 0.0472, "ball_recovery": 2.9412, "challenges_lost": 0.473, "fouls": 0.4246, "fouls_drawn": 0.3514, "blocks": 0.392, "goal_rate": 0.1252, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1869, "expected_assists": 0.0907, "shots_on_target": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.2776, "xgot": 0.2817, "ball_carries": 17.6158, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2191, "shots_off_target": 0.3831, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9589, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.698, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2053, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8253, "team_expected_assists": 1.1626, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6847, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4087, "xa_scale": 1.4087, "opponent_lambda": 1.083, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1327, "after": 0.1869 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0644, "after": 0.0907 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1174, "tackles": 1.2828, "tackles_won": 0.7235, "clearances": 6.2737, "aerial_won": 3.4898, "total_shots": 0.6801, "rating": 6.8987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.9551, "accurate_pass": 42.9599, "duels_won": 5.7105, "total_long_balls": 3.325, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2402, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7149, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9016, "crosses_total": 0.3135, "crosses_accurate": 0.2663, "touches": 62.3919, "possession_lost": 7.028, "dispossessed": 0.1252, "duels_lost": 3.5197, "aerial_lost": 2.5396, "total_contest": 0.0813, "won_contest": 0.0472, "ball_recovery": 2.9412, "challenges_lost": 0.473, "fouls": 0.4246, "fouls_drawn": 0.3514, "blocks": 0.392, "goal_rate": 0.1252, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1869, "expected_assists": 0.0907, "shots_on_target": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.2776, "xgot": 0.2817, "ball_carries": 17.6158, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2191, "shots_off_target": 0.3831, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9589, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 302, "fifa_rank": 374.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1174, "tackles": 1.2828, "tackles_won": 0.7235, "clearances": 6.2737, "aerial_won": 3.4898, "total_shots": 0.6801, "rating": 6.8987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.9551, "accurate_pass": 42.9599, "duels_won": 5.7105, "total_long_balls": 3.325, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2402, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7149, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9016, "crosses_total": 0.3135, "crosses_accurate": 0.2663, "touches": 62.3919, "possession_lost": 7.028, "dispossessed": 0.1252, "duels_lost": 3.5197, "aerial_lost": 2.5396, "total_contest": 0.0813, "won_contest": 0.0472, "ball_recovery": 2.9412, "challenges_lost": 0.473, "fouls": 0.4246, "fouls_drawn": 0.3514, "blocks": 0.392, "goal_rate": 0.1252, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1869, "expected_assists": 0.0907, "shots_on_target": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.2776, "xgot": 0.2817, "ball_carries": 17.6158, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2191, "shots_off_target": 0.3831, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75, "opponent_faced": "Nicolas Jackson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1705, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9589, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1705, "goal_rate": 0.1252, "scorer_weight": 0.1792, "squad_weight_total": 1.7229, "weight_share": 0.104, "finishing_factor": 0.9589, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.5298, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5298, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4073 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1174, "tackles": 1.2828, "tackles_won": 0.7235, "clearances": 6.2737, "aerial_won": 3.4898, "total_shots": 0.6801, "rating": 6.8987, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 48.9551, "accurate_pass": 42.9599, "duels_won": 5.7105, "total_long_balls": 3.325, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 33.2402, 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1207 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0763 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0382 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0328 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 1.1641, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.137969, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129723 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.074074 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.035179 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.02874 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.028386 } ], "others_margin": 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"margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127216 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.090704 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.087285 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.082426 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.064935 } ], "others_margin": -0.045356 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.2233752012252808, "model_output": 1.2234, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.151 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0962 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0671 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0346 } ], "others": -0.0601, "total": 1.2234, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104593 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.065346 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.048217 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.029395 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.026608 } ], "others_margin": -0.048007 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5469806790351868, "model_output": 0.547, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0603 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": 0.547, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060318 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.015878 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.014901 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.011297 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008932 } ], "others_margin": -0.027729 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.80698299407959, "model_output": 6.807, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0108, "total": 6.807, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019345 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015201 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.015141 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010602 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010437 } ], "others_margin": -0.010917 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1636, "tackles": 2.0106, "tackles_won": 1.2619, "clearances": 2.6765, "aerial_won": 1.2229, "total_shots": 0.5468, "rating": 6.807, "minutes": 85.13, "total_pass": 41.7895, "accurate_pass": 35.3544, "duels_won": 4.1444, "total_long_balls": 2.0411, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9459, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1407, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2136, "crosses_total": 1.5215, "crosses_accurate": 0.715, "touches": 62.8055, "possession_lost": 9.9228, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 2.9806, "aerial_lost": 0.6416, "total_contest": 0.5312, "won_contest": 0.3171, "ball_recovery": 1.9312, "challenges_lost": 0.7294, "fouls": 0.9998, "fouls_drawn": 0.532, "blocks": 0.3822, "goals": 0.0595, 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0.715, "touches": 62.8055, "possession_lost": 9.9228, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 2.9806, "aerial_lost": 0.6416, "total_contest": 0.5312, "won_contest": 0.3171, "ball_recovery": 1.9312, "challenges_lost": 0.7294, "fouls": 0.9917, "fouls_drawn": 0.5319, "blocks": 0.3822, "goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.059, "assists": 0.1082, "assist_rate": 0.1082, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0837, "shots_on_target": 0.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1124, "xgot": 0.0428, "ball_carries": 11.915, "total_progression": 40.5787, "progressive_carries": 0.8448, "key_pass": 0.4948, "shots_off_target": 0.4726, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.466, "opponent_faced": "Lamare Bogarde", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { 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"contribution": 0.0532 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.029, "total": 0.515, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053181 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024329 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.022564 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019073 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.00785 } ], "others_margin": -0.028838 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.901191234588623, "model_output": 6.9012, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } 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recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0151, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9449, "tackles": 1.3069, "tackles_won": 0.7598, "clearances": 4.0039, "aerial_won": 1.2364, "total_shots": 0.5228, "rating": 6.9012, "minutes": 79.78, "total_pass": 57.068, "accurate_pass": 50.797, "duels_won": 2.5317, "total_long_balls": 6.0464, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5423, "total_own_half_passes": 31.734, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.4606, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.334, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3363, "crosses_total": 0.1846, "crosses_accurate": 0.1747, "touches": 67.2193, "possession_lost": 7.0092, "dispossessed": 0.2327, "duels_lost": 2.9764, "aerial_lost": 1.1658, "total_contest": 0.3775, "won_contest": 0.351, "ball_recovery": 2.8765, "challenges_lost": 0.527, "fouls": 1.0243, "fouls_drawn": 0.1533, "blocks": 0.816, "goals": 0.0, 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"player_name": "Raphinha", "ranking": 10 }, { "player_name": "Vini Jr.", "ranking": 11 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 12 }, { "player_name": "Harry Kane", "ranking": 13 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", 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0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0897 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0699 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0241 } ], "others": 0.1353, "total": 7.1722, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.089688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.069919 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032106 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027923 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024094 } ], "others_margin": 0.135278 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0071, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4043, "expected_assists": 0.1977, "assists": 0.212, "assist_rate": 0.212, "expected_goals": 0.2259, "goals": 0.2543, "goal_rate": 0.2543, "shots_on_target": 0.6521, "total_shots": 2.0306, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 56.2641, "accurate_pass": 44.2921, "duels_won": 2.5839, "total_long_balls": 6.5053, "accurate_long_balls": 3.445, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7409, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3238, "total_opp_half_passes": 39.5231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.9682, "crosses_total": 6.7019, "crosses_accurate": 1.756, "touches": 74.1147, "possession_lost": 20.0681, "dispossessed": 1.0196, "duels_lost": 4.2104, "aerial_won": 0.208, "aerial_lost": 0.5211, "interceptions": 0.3243, "tackles_won": 1.1007, "tackles": 1.4121, "clearances": 0.2664, "total_contest": 0.8394, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 1.065, "fouls": 0.919, "fouls_drawn": 0.8104, "blocks": 0.1705, "big_chances_created": 0.5543, "big_chances_missed": 0.2721, "xgot": 0.1889, "ball_carries": 15.4079, "total_progression": 55.2647, "progressive_carries": 1.3346, "shots_off_target": 1.3784 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0071, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4043, "expected_assists": 0.1977, "assists": 0.2146, "assist_rate": 0.2146, "expected_goals": 0.2259, "goals": 0.2655, "goal_rate": 0.2655, "shots_on_target": 0.6642, "total_shots": 2.0617, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 56.2641, "accurate_pass": 44.2921, "duels_won": 2.5839, "total_long_balls": 6.5053, "accurate_long_balls": 3.445, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7409, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3238, "total_opp_half_passes": 39.5231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.9682, "crosses_total": 6.7043, "crosses_accurate": 1.756, "touches": 74.1147, "possession_lost": 20.0681, "dispossessed": 1.0196, "duels_lost": 4.2104, "aerial_won": 0.208, "aerial_lost": 0.5211, "interceptions": 0.3259, "tackles_won": 1.0953, "tackles": 1.4121, "clearances": 0.2664, "total_contest": 0.8394, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 1.065, "fouls": 0.9152, "fouls_drawn": 0.8031, "blocks": 0.1705, "big_chances_created": 0.5543, "big_chances_missed": 0.2721, "xgot": 0.1889, "ball_carries": 15.4079, "total_progression": 55.2647, "progressive_carries": 1.3346, "shots_off_target": 1.3784 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9959, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0306, "after": 2.0617 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6521, "after": 0.6642 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2543, "after": 0.2655 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8104, "after": 0.8031 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1007, "after": 1.0953 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4043, "expected_assists": 0.1977, "assists": 0.2146, "assist_rate": 0.2146, "expected_goals": 0.2259, "goals": 0.2655, "goal_rate": 0.2655, "shots_on_target": 0.6642, "total_shots": 2.0617, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 56.2641, "accurate_pass": 44.2921, "duels_won": 2.5839, "total_long_balls": 6.5053, "accurate_long_balls": 3.445, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7409, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3238, "total_opp_half_passes": 39.5231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.9682, "crosses_total": 6.7043, "crosses_accurate": 1.756, "touches": 74.1147, "possession_lost": 20.0681, "dispossessed": 1.0196, "duels_lost": 4.2104, "aerial_won": 0.208, "aerial_lost": 0.5211, "interceptions": 0.3259, "tackles_won": 1.0953, "tackles": 1.4121, "clearances": 0.2664, "total_contest": 0.8394, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 1.065, "fouls": 0.9152, "fouls_drawn": 0.8031, "blocks": 0.1705, "big_chances_created": 0.5543, "big_chances_missed": 0.2721, "xgot": 0.1889, "ball_carries": 15.4079, "total_progression": 55.2647, "progressive_carries": 1.3346, "shots_off_target": 1.3784 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4043, "expected_assists": 0.1977, "assists": 0.2146, "assist_rate": 0.2146, "expected_goals": 0.2522, "goals": 0.2964, "goal_rate": 0.2964, "shots_on_target": 0.7415, "total_shots": 2.3017, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 56.2641, "accurate_pass": 44.2921, "duels_won": 2.5839, "total_long_balls": 6.5053, "accurate_long_balls": 3.445, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7409, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3238, "total_opp_half_passes": 39.5231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.9682, "crosses_total": 6.7043, "crosses_accurate": 1.756, "touches": 74.1147, "possession_lost": 20.0681, "dispossessed": 1.0196, "duels_lost": 4.2104, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5211, "interceptions": 0.3259, "tackles_won": 1.0953, "tackles": 1.4121, "clearances": 0.2664, "total_contest": 0.8394, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 1.065, "fouls": 0.9152, "fouls_drawn": 0.8031, "blocks": 0.1705, "big_chances_created": 0.5543, "big_chances_missed": 0.3038, "xgot": 0.2109, "ball_carries": 15.4079, "total_progression": 55.2647, "progressive_carries": 1.3346, "shots_off_target": 1.5388, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1164, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.559, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Victor Lindelöf", "opponent_faced": "Victor Lindelöf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Victor Lindelöf", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.559, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1164, "skill_edge": 0.1112, "height_edge": -0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.732, "defender_skill": 0.4849, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Victor Lindelöf", "market_value": 4800000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4849 } ], "xg_override": 0.2522 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.208, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0617, "after": 2.3017 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3784, "after": 1.5388 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6642, "after": 0.7415 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2721, "after": 0.3038 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2655, "after": 0.2964 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2259, "after": 0.2522 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1889, "after": 0.2109 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4043, "expected_assists": 0.1977, "assist_rate": 0.2146, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2522, "goal_rate": 0.2964, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7415, "total_shots": 2.3017, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 56.2641, "accurate_pass": 44.2921, "duels_won": 2.5839, "total_long_balls": 6.5053, "accurate_long_balls": 3.445, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7409, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3238, "total_opp_half_passes": 39.5231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.9682, "crosses_total": 6.7043, "crosses_accurate": 1.756, "touches": 74.1147, "possession_lost": 20.0681, "dispossessed": 1.0196, "duels_lost": 4.2104, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5211, "interceptions": 0.3259, "tackles_won": 1.0953, "tackles": 1.4121, "clearances": 0.2664, "total_contest": 0.8394, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 1.065, "fouls": 0.9152, "fouls_drawn": 0.8031, "blocks": 0.1705, "big_chances_created": 0.5543, "big_chances_missed": 0.3038, "xgot": 0.2109, "ball_carries": 15.4079, "total_progression": 55.2647, "progressive_carries": 1.3346, "shots_off_target": 1.5388, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1164, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.559, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Victor Lindelöf", "opponent_faced": "Victor Lindelöf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.2053, xG scale 1.4087, xA scale 1.4087, team xA 1.16 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4043, "expected_assists": 0.2786, "assist_rate": 0.2146, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3553, "goal_rate": 0.2964, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7415, "total_shots": 2.3017, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 56.2641, "accurate_pass": 44.2921, "duels_won": 2.5839, "total_long_balls": 6.5053, "accurate_long_balls": 3.445, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7409, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3238, "total_opp_half_passes": 39.5231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.9682, "crosses_total": 6.7043, "crosses_accurate": 1.756, "touches": 74.1147, "possession_lost": 20.0681, "dispossessed": 1.0196, "duels_lost": 4.2104, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5211, "interceptions": 0.3259, "tackles_won": 1.0953, "tackles": 1.4121, "clearances": 0.2664, "total_contest": 0.8394, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 1.065, "fouls": 0.9152, "fouls_drawn": 0.8031, "blocks": 0.1705, "big_chances_created": 0.5543, "big_chances_missed": 0.3038, "xgot": 0.2971, "ball_carries": 15.4079, "total_progression": 55.2647, "progressive_carries": 1.3346, "shots_off_target": 1.5388, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1164, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.559, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Victor Lindelöf", "opponent_faced": "Victor Lindelöf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1463, "creation_factor": 1.0682 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.698, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2053, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8253, "team_expected_assists": 1.1626, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6847, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4087, "xa_scale": 1.4087, "opponent_lambda": 1.083, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2522, "after": 0.3553 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1977, "after": 0.2786 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 89.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4043, "expected_assists": 0.2786, "assist_rate": 0.2146, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3553, "goal_rate": 0.2964, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7415, "total_shots": 2.3017, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 56.2641, "accurate_pass": 44.2921, "duels_won": 2.5839, "total_long_balls": 6.5053, "accurate_long_balls": 3.445, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7409, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3238, "total_opp_half_passes": 39.5231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.9682, "crosses_total": 6.7043, "crosses_accurate": 1.756, "touches": 74.1147, "possession_lost": 20.0681, "dispossessed": 1.0196, "duels_lost": 4.2104, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5211, "interceptions": 0.3259, "tackles_won": 1.0953, "tackles": 1.4121, "clearances": 0.2664, "total_contest": 0.8394, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 1.065, "fouls": 0.9152, "fouls_drawn": 0.8031, "blocks": 0.1705, "big_chances_created": 0.5543, "big_chances_missed": 0.3038, "xgot": 0.2971, "ball_carries": 15.4079, "total_progression": 55.2647, "progressive_carries": 1.3346, "shots_off_target": 1.5388, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1164, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.559, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Victor Lindelöf", "opponent_faced": "Victor Lindelöf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1463, "creation_factor": 1.0682, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 8, "fifa_rank": 20.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 89.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4043, "expected_assists": 0.2786, "assist_rate": 0.2146, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3553, "goal_rate": 0.2964, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7415, "total_shots": 2.3017, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 56.2641, "accurate_pass": 44.2921, "duels_won": 2.5839, "total_long_balls": 6.5053, "accurate_long_balls": 3.445, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7409, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3238, "total_opp_half_passes": 39.5231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.9682, "crosses_total": 6.7043, "crosses_accurate": 1.756, "touches": 74.1147, "possession_lost": 20.0681, "dispossessed": 1.0196, "duels_lost": 4.2104, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5211, "interceptions": 0.3259, "tackles_won": 1.0953, "tackles": 1.4121, "clearances": 0.2664, "total_contest": 0.8394, "won_contest": 0.1536, "challenges_lost": 1.065, "fouls": 0.9152, "fouls_drawn": 0.8031, "blocks": 0.1705, "big_chances_created": 0.5543, "big_chances_missed": 0.3038, "xgot": 0.2971, "ball_carries": 15.4079, "total_progression": 55.2647, "progressive_carries": 1.3346, "shots_off_target": 1.5388, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1164, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.559, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Victor Lindelöf", "opponent_faced": "Victor Lindelöf", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.299, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1463, "creation_factor": 1.0682, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.299, "goal_rate": 0.2964, "scorer_weight": 0.4073, "squad_weight_total": 1.7229, "weight_share": 0.2364, "finishing_factor": 1.1463, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.5298, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5298, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4073 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.4043, "expected_assists": 0.2786, "assist_rate": 0.2146, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3553, "goal_rate": 0.2964, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7415, "total_shots": 2.3017, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 89.63, "total_pass": 56.2641, "accurate_pass": 44.2921, "duels_won": 2.5839, "total_long_balls": 6.5053, 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0115, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1561, "expected_assists": 0.1124, "assists": 0.0839, "assist_rate": 0.0839, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goals": 0.0603, "goal_rate": 0.0603, "shots_on_target": 0.2856, "total_shots": 0.9137, "rating": 7.1148, "minutes": 75.84, "total_pass": 46.581, "accurate_pass": 40.4674, "duels_won": 5.0046, "total_long_balls": 3.282, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5536, "total_own_half_passes": 18.589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8805, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.587, "crosses_total": 1.4576, "crosses_accurate": 0.5219, "touches": 60.4585, "possession_lost": 10.3585, "dispossessed": 0.9569, "duels_lost": 4.6504, "aerial_won": 1.0115, "aerial_lost": 1.1899, "interceptions": 0.9014, "tackles_won": 1.1708, "tackles": 1.9028, "clearances": 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"description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.2053, xG scale 1.4087, xA scale 1.4087, team xA 1.16 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1561, "expected_assists": 0.1583, "assist_rate": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.0586, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.287, "total_shots": 0.9074, "rating": 7.1148, "minutes": 75.84, "total_pass": 46.581, "accurate_pass": 40.4674, "duels_won": 5.0046, "total_long_balls": 3.282, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5536, "total_own_half_passes": 18.589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8805, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.587, "crosses_total": 1.4483, "crosses_accurate": 0.5219, "touches": 60.4585, "possession_lost": 10.3585, "dispossessed": 0.9569, "duels_lost": 4.6504, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.1899, "interceptions": 0.9023, "tackles_won": 1.1643, "tackles": 1.9028, "clearances": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1366 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0619 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0597 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0367 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0301 } ], "others": -0.0366, "total": 0.8965, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136622 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.061931 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.059652 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.036727 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.030096 } ], "others_margin": -0.03661 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.866007328033447, "model_output": 6.866, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8958, "expected_assists": 0.0748, "assists": 0.0679, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "shots_on_target": 0.1797, "total_shots": 0.7147, "rating": 7.132, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8522, "accurate_pass": 58.7187, "duels_won": 5.0771, "total_long_balls": 2.5235, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7785, "total_own_half_passes": 27.9988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3939, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3249, "crosses_total": 0.1434, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4472, "possession_lost": 8.9906, "dispossessed": 1.801, "duels_lost": 4.9445, "aerial_won": 0.3665, "aerial_lost": 0.778, "interceptions": 1.4474, "tackles_won": 1.0352, "tackles": 2.0498, "clearances": 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0.7147, "after": 0.7306 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9276, "after": 0.9221 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8958, "expected_assists": 0.0748, "assists": 0.0675, "assist_rate": 0.0675, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "goals": 0.0498, "goal_rate": 0.0498, "shots_on_target": 0.1786, "total_shots": 0.7306, "rating": 7.132, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8522, "accurate_pass": 58.7187, "duels_won": 5.0771, "total_long_balls": 2.5235, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7785, "total_own_half_passes": 27.9988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3939, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3249, "crosses_total": 0.1478, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4472, "possession_lost": 8.9906, "dispossessed": 1.801, "duels_lost": 4.9445, "aerial_won": 0.3665, "aerial_lost": 0.778, "interceptions": 1.4492, "tackles_won": 1.0395, "tackles": 2.0498, "clearances": 0.7998, 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3249, "crosses_total": 0.1478, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4472, "possession_lost": 8.9906, "dispossessed": 1.801, "duels_lost": 4.9445, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.778, "interceptions": 1.4492, "tackles_won": 1.0395, "tackles": 2.0498, "clearances": 0.7998, "total_contest": 2.234, "won_contest": 1.6573, "challenges_lost": 0.861, "fouls": 0.9221, "fouls_drawn": 1.0082, "blocks": 0.572, "big_chances_created": 0.0367, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0109, "ball_carries": 27.1947, "total_progression": 113.6207, "progressive_carries": 2.3355, "shots_off_target": 0.55, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.028, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.439, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.439, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.028, "skill_edge": 0.0191, "height_edge": 0.0, "attacker_skill": 0.8893, "defender_skill": 0.847, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Boubacar Kamara", "market_value": 49000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.847 } ], "xg_override": 0.0525 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3665, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7306, "after": 0.7511 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.535, "after": 0.55 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1786, "after": 0.1836 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8958, "expected_assists": 0.0748, "assist_rate": 0.0675, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.7511, "rating": 7.132, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8522, "accurate_pass": 58.7187, "duels_won": 5.0771, "total_long_balls": 2.5235, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7785, "total_own_half_passes": 27.9988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3939, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3249, "crosses_total": 0.1478, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4472, "possession_lost": 8.9906, "dispossessed": 1.801, "duels_lost": 4.9445, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.778, "interceptions": 1.4492, "tackles_won": 1.0395, "tackles": 2.0498, "clearances": 0.7998, "total_contest": 2.234, "won_contest": 1.6573, "challenges_lost": 0.861, "fouls": 0.9221, "fouls_drawn": 1.0082, "blocks": 0.572, 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0.8958, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "assist_rate": 0.0675, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.7511, "rating": 7.132, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8522, "accurate_pass": 58.7187, "duels_won": 5.0771, "total_long_balls": 2.5235, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7785, "total_own_half_passes": 27.9988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3939, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3249, "crosses_total": 0.1478, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4472, "possession_lost": 8.9906, "dispossessed": 1.801, "duels_lost": 4.9445, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.778, "interceptions": 1.4492, "tackles_won": 1.0395, "tackles": 2.0498, "clearances": 0.7998, "total_contest": 2.234, "won_contest": 1.6573, "challenges_lost": 0.861, "fouls": 0.9221, "fouls_drawn": 1.0082, "blocks": 0.572, "big_chances_created": 0.0367, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0154, "ball_carries": 27.1947, 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"stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0748, "after": 0.1054 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8958, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "assist_rate": 0.0675, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.7511, "rating": 7.132, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8522, "accurate_pass": 58.7187, "duels_won": 5.0771, "total_long_balls": 2.5235, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7785, "total_own_half_passes": 27.9988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3939, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3249, "crosses_total": 0.1478, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4472, "possession_lost": 8.9906, "dispossessed": 1.801, "duels_lost": 4.9445, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.778, "interceptions": 1.4492, "tackles_won": 1.0395, "tackles": 2.0498, "clearances": 0.7998, "total_contest": 2.234, "won_contest": 1.6573, "challenges_lost": 0.861, "fouls": 0.9221, "fouls_drawn": 1.0082, "blocks": 0.572, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8958, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "assist_rate": 0.0675, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.7511, "rating": 7.132, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8522, "accurate_pass": 58.7187, "duels_won": 5.0771, "total_long_balls": 2.5235, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7785, "total_own_half_passes": 27.9988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3939, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.8535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3249, "crosses_total": 0.1478, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 79.4472, "possession_lost": 8.9906, "dispossessed": 1.801, "duels_lost": 4.9445, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.778, "interceptions": 1.4492, "tackles_won": 1.0395, "tackles": 2.0498, "clearances": 0.7998, "total_contest": 2.234, "won_contest": 1.6573, "challenges_lost": 0.861, "fouls": 0.9221, "fouls_drawn": 1.0082, "blocks": 0.572, "big_chances_created": 0.0367, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0154, "ball_carries": 27.1947, "total_progression": 113.6207, "progressive_carries": 2.3355, "shots_off_target": 0.55, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.028, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.439, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Boubacar Kamara", "opponent_faced": "Boubacar Kamara", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0713, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9873, "creation_factor": 0.9415, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0713, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "scorer_weight": 0.0731, "squad_weight_total": 1.7229, "weight_share": 0.0424, "finishing_factor": 0.9873, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.5298, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5298, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4073 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8958, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "assist_rate": 0.0675, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1836, "total_shots": 0.7511, "rating": 7.132, "minutes": 86.94, "total_pass": 63.8522, "accurate_pass": 58.7187, "duels_won": 5.0771, "total_long_balls": 2.5235, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7785, 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integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5319, "expected_assists": 0.037, "assist_rate": 0.0539, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0545, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1557, "total_shots": 0.5722, "rating": 6.9059, "minutes": 77.5, "total_pass": 48.4918, "accurate_pass": 43.7247, "duels_won": 4.8183, "total_long_balls": 1.1306, "accurate_long_balls": 0.517, "total_own_half_passes": 23.5248, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3788, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3457, "crosses_total": 0.0608, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.6736, "possession_lost": 5.9602, "dispossessed": 0.2547, "duels_lost": 2.9785, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.8185, "interceptions": 1.2322, "tackles_won": 1.2753, "tackles": 2.2371, "clearances": 1.3034, "total_contest": 0.1684, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8224, "fouls": 0.9635, "fouls_drawn": 1.5857, "blocks": 0.1815, "big_chances_created": 0.0319, 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"totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7706 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1104 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0239 } ], "others": -0.051, "total": 0.515, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.826998 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.203695 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": 0.059361 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.044236 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.043092 } ], "others_margin": -0.094099 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1657288521528244, "model_output": 0.1657, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2359 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.024, "total": 0.1657, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.235859 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.038768 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017441 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.014517 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013883 } ], "others_margin": -0.024086 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.64522647857666, "model_output": 6.6452, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.016 } ], "others": -0.0581, "total": 6.6452, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.022103 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020681 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.020545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.016204 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015953 } ], "others_margin": -0.058067 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0100, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5012, "tackles": 0.9272, "tackles_won": 0.4523, "clearances": 1.0506, "aerial_won": 0.5202, "total_shots": 0.1674, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9355, "accurate_pass": 7.8378, "duels_won": 0.9322, "total_long_balls": 0.6285, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2947, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2047, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8825, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9553, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4182, "possession_lost": 1.5632, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9749, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1856, "won_contest": 0.0322, "ball_recovery": 0.4804, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2896, "fouls_drawn": 0.0322, "blocks": 0.3036, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6566, "total_progression": 33.7585, "progressive_carries": 0.8653, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1674 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.01, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0010)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5025, "tackles": 0.9272, "tackles_won": 0.4518, "clearances": 1.0506, "aerial_won": 0.5202, "total_shots": 0.1672, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9355, "accurate_pass": 7.8378, "duels_won": 0.9322, "total_long_balls": 0.6285, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2947, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2047, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8825, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9553, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4182, "possession_lost": 1.5632, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9749, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1856, "won_contest": 0.0322, "ball_recovery": 0.4804, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2902, "fouls_drawn": 0.0322, "blocks": 0.3036, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6566, "total_progression": 33.7585, "progressive_carries": 0.8653, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1674 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.001, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1791, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.1 to 16.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5016, "tackles": 0.9255, "tackles_won": 0.451, "clearances": 1.0486, "aerial_won": 0.5192, "total_shots": 0.1671, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 8.9189, "accurate_pass": 7.8232, "duels_won": 0.9305, "total_long_balls": 0.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2942, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8753, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9479, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3951, "possession_lost": 1.5603, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9731, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1853, "won_contest": 0.0321, "ball_recovery": 0.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0321, "blocks": 0.303, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6498, "total_progression": 33.6957, "progressive_carries": 0.8637, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1671, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.09, "projection_minutes": 16.12, "minutes_scale": 0.9981, "appearance_probability": 0.631 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5016, "tackles": 0.9255, "tackles_won": 0.451, "clearances": 1.0486, "aerial_won": 0.5192, "total_shots": 0.1671, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 8.9189, "accurate_pass": 7.8232, "duels_won": 0.9305, "total_long_balls": 0.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2942, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8753, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9479, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3951, "possession_lost": 1.5603, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9731, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1853, "won_contest": 0.0321, "ball_recovery": 0.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0321, "blocks": 0.303, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6498, "total_progression": 33.6957, "progressive_carries": 0.8637, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1671, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5016, "tackles": 0.9255, "tackles_won": 0.451, "clearances": 1.0486, "aerial_won": 0.5192, "total_shots": 0.1671, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 8.9189, "accurate_pass": 7.8232, "duels_won": 0.9305, "total_long_balls": 0.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2942, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8753, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9479, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3951, "possession_lost": 1.5603, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9731, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1853, "won_contest": 0.0321, "ball_recovery": 0.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0321, "blocks": 0.303, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6498, "total_progression": 33.6957, "progressive_carries": 0.8637, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1671, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.09, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.2053, xG scale 1.4087, xA scale 1.4087, team xA 1.16 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5016, "tackles": 0.9255, "tackles_won": 0.451, "clearances": 1.0486, "aerial_won": 0.5192, "total_shots": 0.1671, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 8.9189, "accurate_pass": 7.8232, "duels_won": 0.9305, "total_long_balls": 0.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2942, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8753, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9479, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3951, "possession_lost": 1.5603, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9731, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1853, "won_contest": 0.0321, "ball_recovery": 0.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0321, "blocks": 0.303, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0039, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6498, "total_progression": 33.6957, "progressive_carries": 0.8637, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1671, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.09, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9191, "creation_factor": 0.9025 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.698, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2053, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8253, "team_expected_assists": 1.1626, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6847, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4087, "xa_scale": 1.4087, "opponent_lambda": 1.083, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.631 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5016, "tackles": 0.9255, "tackles_won": 0.451, "clearances": 1.0486, "aerial_won": 0.5192, "total_shots": 0.1671, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 8.9189, "accurate_pass": 7.8232, "duels_won": 0.9305, "total_long_balls": 0.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2942, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8753, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9479, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3951, "possession_lost": 1.5603, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9731, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1853, "won_contest": 0.0321, "ball_recovery": 0.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0321, "blocks": 0.303, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0039, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6498, "total_progression": 33.6957, "progressive_carries": 0.8637, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1671, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.09, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9191, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2687, "fifa_rank": 1121.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5016, "tackles": 0.9255, "tackles_won": 0.451, "clearances": 1.0486, "aerial_won": 0.5192, "total_shots": 0.1671, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 8.9189, "accurate_pass": 7.8232, "duels_won": 0.9305, "total_long_balls": 0.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2942, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8753, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9479, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3951, "possession_lost": 1.5603, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9731, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1853, "won_contest": 0.0321, "ball_recovery": 0.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0321, "blocks": 0.303, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.826388 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.063557 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.063378 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035756 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.035543 } ], "others_margin": -0.198088 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.4214462041854858, "model_output": 1.4214, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1259 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1375 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1346 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0647 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0584 } ], "others": 0.0114, "total": 1.4214, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.973905 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.112744 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.110498 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.049085 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.042308 } ], "others_margin": 0.008049 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6375061273574829, "model_output": 0.6375, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7733 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1115 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0346 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0256 } ], "others": 0.1232, "total": 0.6375, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.831353 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.206905 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.068991 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.061021 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.051125 } ], "others_margin": 0.214378 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1532924473285675, "model_output": 0.1533, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1965 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0584 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0527, "total": 0.1533, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.196518 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.058426 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.020405 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.012583 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012488 } ], "others_margin": -0.052703 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.799625396728516, "model_output": 6.7996, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0, "total": 6.7996, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.030955 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.025031 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.01252 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010841 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.006874 } ], "others_margin": 0.000115 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his 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0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0947, "shots_off_target": 0.1867, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.241, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.74, "projection_minutes": 12.26, "minutes_scale": 1.2022, "appearance_probability": 0.241 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.467, "tackles": 0.6253, "tackles_won": 0.3677, "clearances": 1.7313, "aerial_won": 0.7765, "total_shots": 0.1879, "rating": 6.7996, "minutes": 14.74, "total_pass": 5.3387, "accurate_pass": 4.9929, "duels_won": 0.6022, "total_long_balls": 0.3436, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3436, "total_own_half_passes": 3.398, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.398, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.9407, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5949, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.4254, "possession_lost": 0.3457, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3294, "aerial_lost": 0.1458, 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2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.241, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1344, "xgot": 0.0529, "ball_carries": 3.9004, "total_progression": 13.2397, "progressive_carries": 0.7918, "shots_off_target": 0.573, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.524, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.47 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.47, "projection_minutes": 15.45, "minutes_scale": 1.066, "appearance_probability": 0.524 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6592, "expected_assists": 0.0483, "assists": 0.0899, "assist_rate": 0.0899, "expected_goals": 0.0665, "goals": 0.1091, "goal_rate": 0.1091, "shots_on_target": 0.4092, "total_shots": 0.9845, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 16.47, "total_pass": 7.2295, "accurate_pass": 5.5875, "duels_won": 2.2642, "total_long_balls": 0.5192, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1735, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9619, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6808, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2676, 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"goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0223 } ], "others": -0.0497, "total": 0.5436, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.395908 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.04462 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.037277 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.025312 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.02227 } ], "others_margin": -0.049761 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.723480701446533, "model_output": 6.7235, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1002 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4122, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "assists": 0.0559, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "goals": 0.0366, "goal_rate": 0.0366, "shots_on_target": 0.1746, "total_shots": 0.5475, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 15.51, "total_pass": 8.3662, "accurate_pass": 7.9984, "duels_won": 1.632, "total_long_balls": 0.207, "accurate_long_balls": 0.207, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6743, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5721, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3241, "crosses_total": 0.4631, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3704, "possession_lost": 1.4933, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.0043, "aerial_won": 0.2418, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.3803, "tackles_won": 0.3879, "tackles": 0.6578, "clearances": 0.2085, "total_contest": 0.639, "won_contest": 0.35, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 0.3823, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0331, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9493, "total_progression": 4.5094, "progressive_carries": 0.0536, "shots_off_target": 0.3729 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0072, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.5 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assists": 0.0824, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "expected_goals": 0.066, "goals": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.85, "projection_minutes": 15.51, "minutes_scale": 1.4734, "appearance_probability": 0.539 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assists": 0.0824, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "expected_goals": 0.066, "goals": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.2053, xG scale 1.4087, xA scale 1.4087, team xA 1.16 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8957, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.698, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2053, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8253, "team_expected_assists": 1.1626, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6847, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4087, "xa_scale": 1.4087, "opponent_lambda": 1.083, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.539 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.066, "after": 0.0501 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.047, "after": 0.0357 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8957, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2088, "fifa_rank": 1093.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0478, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8957, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0478, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "scorer_weight": 0.0449, "squad_weight_total": 1.7229, "weight_share": 0.026, "finishing_factor": 0.8957, "appearance_weight": 0.539, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.5298, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5298, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4073 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0478, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0345, "finishing_factor": 0.8957, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0345, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "provider_weight": 0.0446, "squad_weight_total": 1.1277, "weight_share": 0.0396, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.539, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.2976, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2976, "runner_up": "Luke Shaw", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1395, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Matheus Cunha": { "player_id": 886363, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 184, "market_value": 79000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0895, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0865, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7542, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 7.8821, "dispossessed": 1.1245, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 42, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.05, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0549, "total": 0.2581, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.502354 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.09122 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.084651 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.069735 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.044993 } ], "others_margin": -0.192815 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.645159721374512, "model_output": 6.6452, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0686 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0399, "total": 6.6452, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068627 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.017815 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013704 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013661 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010001 } ], "others_margin": -0.039994 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.880)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1107, "goals": 0.1284, "goal_rate": 0.1284, "shots_on_target": 0.3717, "total_shots": 0.9404, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0.2618, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1174, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3494, "fouls_drawn": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, 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0.1225, "goals": 0.1418, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "shots_on_target": 0.4105, "total_shots": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.2898, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1119, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.698, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2053, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8253, "team_expected_assists": 1.1626, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6847, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4087, "xa_scale": 1.4087, "opponent_lambda": 1.083, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.755 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1225, "after": 0.1303 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4105, "total_shots": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "key_pass": 0.2898, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.2046, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4105, "total_shots": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "key_pass": 0.2898, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, 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"eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.5298, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5298, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4073 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4105, "total_shots": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "key_pass": 0.2898, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, 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"76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1116, "combined_rank_score": 499.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 613.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.775, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 386.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6452, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Benjamin Šeško", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arihiro Sentoku", "ranking": 1111 }, { "player_name": "Leonel González", "ranking": 1112 }, { "player_name": "Veldin Hodža", "ranking": 1113 }, { "player_name": "Breno Bidon", "ranking": 1114 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Gutemberg", "ranking": 1115 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kim Jeong Hyun", "ranking": 1117 }, { "player_name": "Jaba Jigauri", "ranking": 1118 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Opeyemi Teidi", "ranking": 1119 }, { "player_name": "Tornike Dzebniauri", "ranking": 1120 }, { "player_name": "Ho-in Lee", "ranking": 1121 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.754, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", 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"rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-20", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 5.6189, "expectedGoals": 0.2691, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.3735, "totalShots": 1.5366, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 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"margin": -0.593222 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.059759 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.05453 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.051506 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.043576 } ], "others_margin": 0.020704 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9270535707473755, "model_output": 0.9271, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0526 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0309 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0307 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3756, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5739 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0554 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0412 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0355 } ], "others": -0.0534, "total": 0.9271, 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"keyPass", "contribution": -0.0023 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0078, "total": 0.0141, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.39123 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.345476 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.176952 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.091772 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.086192 } ], "others_margin": -0.43348 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2581140995025635, "model_output": 0.2581, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0549, "total": 0.2581, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.502354 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.09122 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.084651 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.069735 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.044993 } ], "others_margin": -0.192815 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.645159721374512, "model_output": 6.6452, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0686 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0399, "total": 6.6452, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068627 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.017815 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013704 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013661 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010001 } ], "others_margin": -0.039994 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.880)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1107, "goals": 0.1284, "goal_rate": 0.1284, "shots_on_target": 0.3717, "total_shots": 0.9404, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0.2618, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1174, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3494, "fouls_drawn": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0427, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.5687 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 78000000, "quality_factor": 0.8802, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1107, "goals": 0.1281, "goal_rate": 0.1281, "shots_on_target": 0.3709, "total_shots": 0.9396, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0.2618, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3499, "fouls_drawn": 0.0375, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.5687 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2216, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1225, "goals": 0.1418, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "shots_on_target": 0.4105, "total_shots": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.2898, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.07, "projection_minutes": 19.94, "minutes_scale": 1.1068, "appearance_probability": 0.755 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1225, "goals": 0.1418, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "shots_on_target": 0.4105, "total_shots": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.2898, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1225, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4105, "total_shots": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.2898, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.2053, xG scale 1.4087, xA scale 1.4087, team xA 1.16 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4105, "total_shots": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "key_pass": 0.2898, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.2046, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1119, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.698, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2053, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8253, "team_expected_assists": 1.1626, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6847, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4087, "xa_scale": 1.4087, "opponent_lambda": 1.083, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.755 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1225, "after": 0.1303 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4105, "total_shots": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "key_pass": 0.2898, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.2046, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1119, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1116, "fifa_rank": 386.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4105, "total_shots": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "key_pass": 0.2898, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.2046, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1197, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1119, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1197, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "scorer_weight": 0.1449, "squad_weight_total": 1.7229, "weight_share": 0.0841, "finishing_factor": 1.1119, "appearance_weight": 0.755, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.5298, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5298, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4073 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4105, "total_shots": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "key_pass": 0.2898, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0100, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5012, "tackles": 0.9272, "tackles_won": 0.4523, "clearances": 1.0506, "aerial_won": 0.5202, "total_shots": 0.1674, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9355, "accurate_pass": 7.8378, "duels_won": 0.9322, "total_long_balls": 0.6285, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2947, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2047, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8825, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9553, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4182, "possession_lost": 1.5632, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9749, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1856, "won_contest": 0.0322, "ball_recovery": 0.4804, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2896, "fouls_drawn": 0.0322, "blocks": 0.3036, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6566, "total_progression": 33.7585, "progressive_carries": 0.8653, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1674 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.01, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0010)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5025, "tackles": 0.9272, "tackles_won": 0.4518, "clearances": 1.0506, "aerial_won": 0.5202, "total_shots": 0.1672, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9355, "accurate_pass": 7.8378, "duels_won": 0.9322, "total_long_balls": 0.6285, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2947, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2047, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8825, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9553, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4182, "possession_lost": 1.5632, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9749, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1856, "won_contest": 0.0322, "ball_recovery": 0.4804, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2902, "fouls_drawn": 0.0322, "blocks": 0.3036, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6566, "total_progression": 33.7585, "progressive_carries": 0.8653, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1674 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.001, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1791, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.1 to 16.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5016, "tackles": 0.9255, "tackles_won": 0.451, "clearances": 1.0486, "aerial_won": 0.5192, "total_shots": 0.1671, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 8.9189, "accurate_pass": 7.8232, "duels_won": 0.9305, "total_long_balls": 0.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2942, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8753, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9479, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3951, "possession_lost": 1.5603, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9731, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1853, "won_contest": 0.0321, "ball_recovery": 0.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0321, "blocks": 0.303, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6498, "total_progression": 33.6957, "progressive_carries": 0.8637, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1671, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.09, "projection_minutes": 16.12, "minutes_scale": 0.9981, "appearance_probability": 0.631 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5016, "tackles": 0.9255, "tackles_won": 0.451, "clearances": 1.0486, "aerial_won": 0.5192, "total_shots": 0.1671, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 8.9189, "accurate_pass": 7.8232, "duels_won": 0.9305, "total_long_balls": 0.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2942, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8753, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9479, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3951, "possession_lost": 1.5603, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9731, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1853, "won_contest": 0.0321, "ball_recovery": 0.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0321, "blocks": 0.303, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6498, "total_progression": 33.6957, "progressive_carries": 0.8637, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1671, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5016, "tackles": 0.9255, "tackles_won": 0.451, "clearances": 1.0486, "aerial_won": 0.5192, "total_shots": 0.1671, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 8.9189, "accurate_pass": 7.8232, "duels_won": 0.9305, "total_long_balls": 0.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2942, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8753, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9479, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3951, "possession_lost": 1.5603, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9731, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1853, "won_contest": 0.0321, "ball_recovery": 0.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0321, "blocks": 0.303, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6498, "total_progression": 33.6957, "progressive_carries": 0.8637, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1671, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.09, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.2053, xG scale 1.4087, xA scale 1.4087, team xA 1.16 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5016, "tackles": 0.9255, "tackles_won": 0.451, "clearances": 1.0486, "aerial_won": 0.5192, "total_shots": 0.1671, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 8.9189, "accurate_pass": 7.8232, "duels_won": 0.9305, "total_long_balls": 0.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2942, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8753, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9479, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3951, "possession_lost": 1.5603, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9731, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1853, "won_contest": 0.0321, "ball_recovery": 0.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0321, "blocks": 0.303, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0039, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6498, "total_progression": 33.6957, "progressive_carries": 0.8637, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1671, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.09, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9191, "creation_factor": 0.9025 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.698, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2053, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8253, "team_expected_assists": 1.1626, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6847, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4087, "xa_scale": 1.4087, "opponent_lambda": 1.083, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.631 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5016, "tackles": 0.9255, "tackles_won": 0.451, "clearances": 1.0486, "aerial_won": 0.5192, "total_shots": 0.1671, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 8.9189, "accurate_pass": 7.8232, "duels_won": 0.9305, "total_long_balls": 0.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2942, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8753, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9479, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3951, "possession_lost": 1.5603, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9731, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1853, "won_contest": 0.0321, "ball_recovery": 0.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0321, "blocks": 0.303, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0039, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6498, "total_progression": 33.6957, "progressive_carries": 0.8637, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1671, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.09, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9191, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2687, "fifa_rank": 1121.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5016, "tackles": 0.9255, "tackles_won": 0.451, "clearances": 1.0486, "aerial_won": 0.5192, "total_shots": 0.1671, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 8.9189, "accurate_pass": 7.8232, "duels_won": 0.9305, "total_long_balls": 0.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2942, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8753, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9479, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3951, "possession_lost": 1.5603, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9731, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1853, "won_contest": 0.0321, "ball_recovery": 0.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0321, "blocks": 0.303, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0039, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6498, "total_progression": 33.6957, "progressive_carries": 0.8637, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1671, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.09, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0039, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9191, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0039, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0036, "squad_weight_total": 1.7229, "weight_share": 0.0021, "finishing_factor": 0.9191, "appearance_weight": 0.631, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.5298, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5298, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4073 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5016, "tackles": 0.9255, "tackles_won": 0.451, "clearances": 1.0486, "aerial_won": 0.5192, "total_shots": 0.1671, "rating": 6.6452, "minutes": 16.09, "total_pass": 8.9189, "accurate_pass": 7.8232, "duels_won": 0.9305, "total_long_balls": 0.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2942, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8753, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7219, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9479, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3951, "possession_lost": 1.5603, "dispossessed": 0.1834, "duels_lost": 0.9731, "aerial_lost": 0.2872, "total_contest": 0.1853, "won_contest": 0.0321, "ball_recovery": 0.4795, "challenges_lost": 0.0612, "fouls": 0.2897, "fouls_drawn": 0.0321, "blocks": 0.303, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0039, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6498, "total_progression": 33.6957, "progressive_carries": 0.8637, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1671, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.631, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.09, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0039, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0048, "finishing_factor": 0.9191, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0043, "squad_weight_total": 1.1277, "weight_share": 0.0038, "creation_factor": 0.9025, "appearance_weight": 0.631, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.2976, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2976, "runner_up": "Luke Shaw", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1395, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Mason Mount": { "player_id": 836694, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 181, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, 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0.04462 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.037277 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.025312 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.02227 } ], "others_margin": -0.049761 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.723480701446533, "model_output": 6.7235, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1002 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0044 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 6.7235, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.100173 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019278 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012166 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.004438 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.0044 } ], "others_margin": -0.017801 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4122, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "assists": 0.0559, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "goals": 0.0366, "goal_rate": 0.0366, "shots_on_target": 0.1746, "total_shots": 0.5475, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 15.51, "total_pass": 8.3662, "accurate_pass": 7.9984, "duels_won": 1.632, "total_long_balls": 0.207, "accurate_long_balls": 0.207, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6743, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5721, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3241, "crosses_total": 0.4631, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3704, "possession_lost": 1.4933, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.0043, "aerial_won": 0.2418, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.3803, "tackles_won": 0.3879, "tackles": 0.6578, "clearances": 0.2085, "total_contest": 0.639, "won_contest": 0.35, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 0.3823, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0331, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9493, "total_progression": 4.5094, "progressive_carries": 0.0536, "shots_off_target": 0.3729 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0072, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.5 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assists": 0.0824, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "expected_goals": 0.066, "goals": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.85, "projection_minutes": 15.51, "minutes_scale": 1.4734, "appearance_probability": 0.539 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assists": 0.0824, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "expected_goals": 0.066, "goals": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.2053, xG scale 1.4087, xA scale 1.4087, team xA 1.16 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8957, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.698, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2053, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8253, "team_expected_assists": 1.1626, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6847, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4087, "xa_scale": 1.4087, "opponent_lambda": 1.083, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.539 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.066, "after": 0.0501 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.047, "after": 0.0357 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8957, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2088, "fifa_rank": 1093.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0478, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8957, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0478, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "scorer_weight": 0.0449, "squad_weight_total": 1.7229, "weight_share": 0.026, "finishing_factor": 0.8957, "appearance_weight": 0.539, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.5298, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5298, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4073 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6073, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0824, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0.8067, "rating": 6.7235, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 12.3263, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 2.4045, "total_long_balls": 0.305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.305, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6433, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4668, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3176, "crosses_total": 0.6823, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2259, "possession_lost": 2.2002, "dispossessed": 0.039, "duels_lost": 1.4797, "aerial_won": 0.3563, "aerial_lost": 0.2259, "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles_won": 0.5715, "tackles": 0.9692, "clearances": 0.3072, "total_contest": 0.9415, "won_contest": 0.5157, "challenges_lost": 0.166, "fouls": 0.5292, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.872, "total_progression": 6.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.079, "shots_off_target": 0.5494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.539, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.819, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0478, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", 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"name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1064 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0474 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0445, "total": 0.3245, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.106441 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047413 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024195 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.016999 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.011979 } ], "others_margin": -0.04452 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.864227294921875, "model_output": 6.8642, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", 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"role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.460)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7641, "tackles": 0.8424, "tackles_won": 0.575, "clearances": 5.3558, "aerial_won": 1.6057, "total_shots": 0.3238, "rating": 6.8642, "minutes": 87.8, "total_pass": 55.5331, "accurate_pass": 51.2684, "duels_won": 1.3605, "total_long_balls": 4.0068, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1184, "total_own_half_passes": 39.42, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.4548, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8135, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.18, "possession_lost": 4.6458, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 1.3366, "aerial_lost": 0.9389, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3932, "challenges_lost": 0.057, "fouls": 0.2638, "fouls_drawn": 0.026, "blocks": 0.4896, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2842 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0521 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0204 } ], "others": 0.0936, "total": 0.8814, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.284197 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052067 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.027042 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023084 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.020435 } ], "others_margin": 0.093552 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.71240758895874, "model_output": 6.7124, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0529, "total": 6.7124, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028816 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017605 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016914 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014399 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013369 } ], "others_margin": -0.052903 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1209, "tackles": 2.3891, "tackles_won": 1.4636, "clearances": 2.3094, "aerial_won": 0.6634, "total_shots": 0.889, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 85.28, "total_pass": 30.4636, "accurate_pass": 25.8616, "duels_won": 3.9939, "total_long_balls": 1.0227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6005, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.531, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3306, "crosses_total": 1.7818, "crosses_accurate": 0.284, "touches": 57.3341, "possession_lost": 12.7887, "dispossessed": 0.5473, "duels_lost": 4.7242, "aerial_lost": 0.3262, "total_contest": 2.2903, "won_contest": 0.4937, "ball_recovery": 3.6564, "challenges_lost": 1.0785, "fouls": 0.9756, "fouls_drawn": 0.4229, "blocks": 0.1814, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0359, "expected_goals": 0.0561, "expected_assists": 0.0923, "shots_on_target": 0.1404, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.0117, "ball_carries": 12.8586, "total_progression": 61.5642, "progressive_carries": 2.436, "key_pass": 0.7377, "shots_off_target": 0.7486 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 33000000, "quality_factor": 0.7389, "boost_factor": 1.0086, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0100)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1297, "tackles": 2.3891, "tackles_won": 1.4539, "clearances": 2.3094, "aerial_won": 0.6634, "total_shots": 0.8951, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 85.28, "total_pass": 30.4636, "accurate_pass": 25.8616, "duels_won": 3.9939, "total_long_balls": 1.0227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6005, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.531, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3306, "crosses_total": 1.7689, "crosses_accurate": 0.284, "touches": 57.3341, "possession_lost": 12.7887, "dispossessed": 0.5473, "duels_lost": 4.7242, "aerial_lost": 0.3262, "total_contest": 2.2903, "won_contest": 0.4937, "ball_recovery": 3.6564, "challenges_lost": 1.0785, "fouls": 0.9908, "fouls_drawn": 0.4187, "blocks": 0.1814, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.0561, "expected_assists": 0.0923, "shots_on_target": 0.139, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.0117, "ball_carries": 12.8586, "total_progression": 61.5642, "progressive_carries": 2.436, "key_pass": 0.7377, "shots_off_target": 0.7486 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.01, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9476, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9756, "after": 0.9908 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.7818, "after": 1.7689 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.4636, "after": 1.4539 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1209, "after": 1.1297 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.889, "after": 0.8951 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1297, "tackles": 2.3891, "tackles_won": 1.4539, "clearances": 2.3094, "aerial_won": 0.6634, "total_shots": 0.8951, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 85.28, "total_pass": 30.4636, "accurate_pass": 25.8616, "duels_won": 3.9939, "total_long_balls": 1.0227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6005, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.531, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3306, "crosses_total": 1.7689, "crosses_accurate": 0.284, "touches": 57.3341, "possession_lost": 12.7887, "dispossessed": 0.5473, "duels_lost": 4.7242, "aerial_lost": 0.3262, 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"total_own_half_passes": 14.6809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.531, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3306, "crosses_total": 1.7689, "crosses_accurate": 0.284, "touches": 57.3341, "possession_lost": 12.7887, "dispossessed": 0.5473, "duels_lost": 4.7242, "aerial_lost": 0.3262, "total_contest": 2.2903, "won_contest": 0.4937, "ball_recovery": 3.6564, "challenges_lost": 1.0785, "fouls": 0.9908, "fouls_drawn": 0.4187, "blocks": 0.1814, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.0561, "expected_assists": 0.0923, "shots_on_target": 0.139, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.0117, "ball_carries": 12.8586, "total_progression": 61.5642, "progressive_carries": 2.436, "key_pass": 0.7377, "shots_off_target": 0.7486, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532, "opponent_faced": "Youri Tielemans", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Youri Tielemans", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1297, "tackles": 2.3891, "tackles_won": 1.4539, "clearances": 2.3094, "aerial_won": 0.6634, "total_shots": 0.8951, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 85.28, "total_pass": 30.4636, "accurate_pass": 25.8616, "duels_won": 3.9939, "total_long_balls": 1.0227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6005, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.531, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3306, "crosses_total": 1.7689, "crosses_accurate": 0.284, "touches": 57.3341, "possession_lost": 12.7887, "dispossessed": 0.5473, "duels_lost": 4.7242, "aerial_lost": 0.3262, "total_contest": 2.2903, "won_contest": 0.4937, "ball_recovery": 3.6564, "challenges_lost": 1.0785, "fouls": 0.9908, "fouls_drawn": 0.4187, "blocks": 0.1814, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0561, "expected_assists": 0.0923, "shots_on_target": 0.139, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.0117, "ball_carries": 12.8586, "total_progression": 61.5642, "progressive_carries": 2.436, "key_pass": 0.7377, "shots_off_target": 0.7486, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532, "opponent_faced": "Youri Tielemans", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.08 (squad xG sum 1.1472, xG scale 0.9440, xA scale 1.2035, team xA 0.70 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1297, "tackles": 2.3891, "tackles_won": 1.4539, "clearances": 2.3094, "aerial_won": 0.6634, "total_shots": 0.8951, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 85.28, "total_pass": 30.4636, "accurate_pass": 25.8616, "duels_won": 3.9939, "total_long_balls": 1.0227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6005, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.531, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3306, "crosses_total": 1.7689, "crosses_accurate": 0.284, "touches": 57.3341, "possession_lost": 12.7887, "dispossessed": 0.5473, "duels_lost": 4.7242, "aerial_lost": 0.3262, "total_contest": 2.2903, "won_contest": 0.4937, "ball_recovery": 3.6564, "challenges_lost": 1.0785, "fouls": 0.9908, "fouls_drawn": 0.4187, "blocks": 0.1814, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.053, "expected_assists": 0.1111, "shots_on_target": 0.139, "big_chances_created": 0.1118, "xgot": 0.011, "ball_carries": 12.8586, "total_progression": 61.5642, "progressive_carries": 2.436, "key_pass": 0.7377, "shots_off_target": 0.7486, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532, "opponent_faced": "Youri Tielemans", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.083, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1472, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5849, "team_expected_assists": 0.7039, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.944, "xa_scale": 1.2035, "opponent_lambda": 1.698, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0923, "after": 0.1111 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1297, "tackles": 2.3891, "tackles_won": 1.4539, "clearances": 2.3094, "aerial_won": 0.6634, "total_shots": 0.8951, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 85.28, "total_pass": 30.4636, "accurate_pass": 25.8616, "duels_won": 3.9939, "total_long_balls": 1.0227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6005, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.531, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3306, "crosses_total": 1.7689, "crosses_accurate": 0.284, "touches": 57.3341, "possession_lost": 12.7887, "dispossessed": 0.5473, "duels_lost": 4.7242, "aerial_lost": 0.3262, "total_contest": 2.2903, "won_contest": 0.4937, "ball_recovery": 3.6564, "challenges_lost": 1.0785, "fouls": 0.9908, "fouls_drawn": 0.4187, "blocks": 0.1814, 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"scorer_weight": 0.0424, "squad_weight_total": 1.1046, "weight_share": 0.0384, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1297, "tackles": 2.3891, "tackles_won": 1.4539, "clearances": 2.3094, "aerial_won": 0.6634, "total_shots": 0.8951, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 85.28, "total_pass": 30.4636, "accurate_pass": 25.8616, "duels_won": 3.9939, "total_long_balls": 1.0227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6005, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.531, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3306, "crosses_total": 1.7689, "crosses_accurate": 0.284, "touches": 57.3341, "possession_lost": 12.7887, "dispossessed": 0.5473, "duels_lost": 4.7242, "aerial_lost": 0.3262, "total_contest": 2.2903, "won_contest": 0.4937, "ball_recovery": 3.6564, "challenges_lost": 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"importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0616 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0411, "total": 0.5393, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061551 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.021829 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.017165 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014281 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012868 } ], "others_margin": -0.04108 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.742783069610596, "model_output": 6.7428, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 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minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8892 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.083, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1472, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5849, "team_expected_assists": 0.7039, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.944, "xa_scale": 1.2035, "opponent_lambda": 1.698, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.052, "after": 0.0626 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"margin": -0.273402 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129235 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065717 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.043867 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.042054 } ], "others_margin": -0.181742 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.928782939910889, "model_output": 6.9288, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.081 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0594 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0669, "total": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0130, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6289, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "assists": 0.0542, "assist_rate": 0.0542, "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goals": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.0638, "shots_on_target": 0.279, "total_shots": 1.0254, "rating": 6.8467, "minutes": 84.75, "total_pass": 42.9171, "accurate_pass": 37.7985, "duels_won": 5.2414, "total_long_balls": 3.0411, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0126, "total_own_half_passes": 20.2038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7677, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0307, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.6606, "possession_lost": 6.541, "dispossessed": 0.4505, "duels_lost": 3.43, "aerial_won": 1.9008, "aerial_lost": 1.4973, "interceptions": 1.0665, "tackles_won": 1.283, "tackles": 2.2387, "clearances": 2.3622, 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[ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.312836 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.225001 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.150087 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.085123 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.065818 } ], "others_margin": 0.167668 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.552281379699707, "model_output": 2.5523, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.7519 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2141 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1264 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.1165 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.077 } ], "others": 0.2815, "total": 2.5523, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.751855 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.214072 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.126429 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.11651 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.077029 } ], "others_margin": 0.281452 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9815354347229, "model_output": 6.9815, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0762 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0641 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0342 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0182 } ], "others": 0.0049, "total": 6.9815, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.076165 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.064089 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.034171 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031315 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018191 } ], "others_margin": 0.004923 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0501, quality 0.872)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2181, "expected_assists": 0.1173, "assists": 0.1634, "assist_rate": 0.1634, "expected_goals": 0.244, "goals": 0.2472, "goal_rate": 0.2472, "shots_on_target": 0.9133, "total_shots": 2.6802, "rating": 6.9815, "minutes": 75.52, "total_pass": 18.9622, "accurate_pass": 15.3681, "duels_won": 5.2056, "total_long_balls": 0.9409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4956, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8226, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6207, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7474, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.1345, "possession_lost": 9.0448, "dispossessed": 0.4878, "duels_lost": 4.8353, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.3761, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.2407, "tackles": 1.4361, "clearances": 0.9123, "total_contest": 3.3099, "won_contest": 1.4286, "challenges_lost": 1.0901, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 2.3409, "blocks": 0.1479, "big_chances_created": 0.431, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2916, "ball_carries": 13.1141, "total_progression": 52.8405, "progressive_carries": 2.821, "shots_off_target": 1.7668 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 71000000, "quality_factor": 0.8721, "boost_factor": 1.0501, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2181, "expected_assists": 0.1173, "assists": 0.1634, "assist_rate": 0.1634, "expected_goals": 0.244, "goals": 0.2472, "goal_rate": 0.2472, "shots_on_target": 0.9133, "total_shots": 2.6802, "rating": 6.9815, "minutes": 75.52, "total_pass": 18.9622, "accurate_pass": 15.3681, "duels_won": 5.2056, "total_long_balls": 0.9409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4956, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8226, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6207, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7474, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.1345, "possession_lost": 9.0448, "dispossessed": 0.4878, "duels_lost": 4.8353, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.3761, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.2407, "tackles": 1.4361, "clearances": 0.9123, "total_contest": 3.3099, "won_contest": 1.4286, "challenges_lost": 1.0901, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 2.3409, "blocks": 0.1479, "big_chances_created": 0.431, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2916, "ball_carries": 13.1141, "total_progression": 52.8405, "progressive_carries": 2.821, "shots_off_target": 1.7668 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2181, "expected_assists": 0.1173, "assists": 0.1634, "assist_rate": 0.1634, "expected_goals": 0.2546, "goals": 0.258, "goal_rate": 0.258, "shots_on_target": 0.953, "total_shots": 2.7968, "rating": 6.9815, "minutes": 75.52, "total_pass": 18.9622, "accurate_pass": 15.3681, "duels_won": 5.2056, "total_long_balls": 0.9409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4956, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8226, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6207, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7474, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.1345, "possession_lost": 9.0448, "dispossessed": 0.4878, "duels_lost": 4.8353, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.3761, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.2407, "tackles": 1.4361, "clearances": 0.9123, "total_contest": 3.3099, "won_contest": 1.4286, "challenges_lost": 1.0901, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 2.3409, "blocks": 0.1479, "big_chances_created": 0.431, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3043, "ball_carries": 13.1141, "total_progression": 52.8405, "progressive_carries": 2.821, "shots_off_target": 1.8437, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0435, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lisandro Martínez", "opponent_faced": "Lisandro Martínez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lisandro Martínez", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0435, "skill_edge": 0.0016, "height_edge": 0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.8721, "defender_skill": 0.8686, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lisandro Martínez", "market_value": 48000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.8686 } ], "xg_override": 0.2546 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.6802, "after": 2.7968 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.7668, "after": 1.8437 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.9133, "after": 0.953 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2916, "after": 0.3043 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2472, "after": 0.258 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.244, "after": 0.2546 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2181, "expected_assists": 0.1173, "assist_rate": 0.1634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2546, "goal_rate": 0.258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.953, "total_shots": 2.7968, "rating": 6.9815, "minutes": 75.52, "total_pass": 18.9622, "accurate_pass": 15.3681, "duels_won": 5.2056, "total_long_balls": 0.9409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4956, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8226, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6207, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7474, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.1345, "possession_lost": 9.0448, "dispossessed": 0.4878, "duels_lost": 4.8353, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.3761, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.2407, "tackles": 1.4361, "clearances": 0.9123, "total_contest": 3.3099, "won_contest": 1.4286, "challenges_lost": 1.0901, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 2.3409, "blocks": 0.1479, "big_chances_created": 0.431, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3043, "ball_carries": 13.1141, "total_progression": 52.8405, "progressive_carries": 2.821, "shots_off_target": 1.8437, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0435, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lisandro Martínez", "opponent_faced": "Lisandro Martínez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.08 (squad xG sum 1.1472, xG scale 0.9440, xA scale 1.2035, team xA 0.70 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2181, "expected_assists": 0.1411, "assist_rate": 0.1634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2403, "goal_rate": 0.258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.953, "total_shots": 2.7968, "rating": 6.9815, "minutes": 75.52, "total_pass": 18.9622, "accurate_pass": 15.3681, "duels_won": 5.2056, "total_long_balls": 0.9409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4956, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8226, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6207, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7474, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.1345, "possession_lost": 9.0448, "dispossessed": 0.4878, "duels_lost": 4.8353, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.3761, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.2407, "tackles": 1.4361, "clearances": 0.9123, "total_contest": 3.3099, "won_contest": 1.4286, "challenges_lost": 1.0901, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 2.3409, "blocks": 0.1479, "big_chances_created": 0.431, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2873, "ball_carries": 13.1141, "total_progression": 52.8405, "progressive_carries": 2.821, "shots_off_target": 1.8437, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0435, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lisandro Martínez", "opponent_faced": "Lisandro Martínez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0112, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.083, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1472, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5849, "team_expected_assists": 0.7039, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.944, "xa_scale": 1.2035, "opponent_lambda": 1.698, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2546, "after": 0.2403 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1173, "after": 0.1411 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2181, "expected_assists": 0.1411, "assist_rate": 0.1634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2403, "goal_rate": 0.258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.953, "total_shots": 2.7968, "rating": 6.9815, "minutes": 75.52, "total_pass": 18.9622, "accurate_pass": 15.3681, "duels_won": 5.2056, "total_long_balls": 0.9409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4956, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8226, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6207, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7474, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.1345, "possession_lost": 9.0448, "dispossessed": 0.4878, "duels_lost": 4.8353, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.3761, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.2407, "tackles": 1.4361, "clearances": 0.9123, "total_contest": 3.3099, "won_contest": 1.4286, "challenges_lost": 1.0901, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 2.3409, "blocks": 0.1479, "big_chances_created": 0.431, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2873, "ball_carries": 13.1141, "total_progression": 52.8405, "progressive_carries": 2.821, "shots_off_target": 1.8437, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0435, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lisandro Martínez", "opponent_faced": "Lisandro Martínez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0112, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1127, "fifa_rank": 702.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2181, "expected_assists": 0.1411, "assist_rate": 0.1634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2403, "goal_rate": 0.258, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.953, "total_shots": 2.7968, "rating": 6.9815, "minutes": 75.52, "total_pass": 18.9622, "accurate_pass": 15.3681, "duels_won": 5.2056, "total_long_balls": 0.9409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4956, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8226, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6207, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7474, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.1345, "possession_lost": 9.0448, "dispossessed": 0.4878, "duels_lost": 4.8353, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.3761, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.2407, "tackles": 1.4361, "clearances": 0.9123, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0044, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5355, "expected_assists": 0.0338, "assists": 0.0456, "assist_rate": 0.0456, "expected_goals": 0.0359, "goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.059, "shots_on_target": 0.1809, "total_shots": 0.6081, "rating": 6.7336, "minutes": 80.48, "total_pass": 31.4889, "accurate_pass": 28.6602, "duels_won": 3.5077, "total_long_balls": 1.3542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4819, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0338, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6781, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9821, "crosses_total": 0.2056, "crosses_accurate": 0.1111, "touches": 42.6369, "possession_lost": 5.4545, "dispossessed": 0.9175, "duels_lost": 2.9572, "aerial_won": 0.4989, "aerial_lost": 0.7704, "interceptions": 0.5403, "tackles_won": 1.3007, "tackles": 1.818, "clearances": 1.5874, "total_contest": 0.1922, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2539, "fouls": 0.8231, "fouls_drawn": 1.1909, "blocks": 0.2608, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8517, "total_progression": 9.3, "progressive_carries": 0.4007, "shots_off_target": 0.4272 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17500000, "quality_factor": 0.6058, "boost_factor": 1.0044, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0013)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5355, "expected_assists": 0.0338, "assists": 0.0455, "assist_rate": 0.0455, "expected_goals": 0.0359, "goals": 0.0589, "goal_rate": 0.0589, "shots_on_target": 0.1807, "total_shots": 0.6073, "rating": 6.7336, "minutes": 80.48, "total_pass": 31.4889, "accurate_pass": 28.6602, "duels_won": 3.5077, "total_long_balls": 1.3542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4819, 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"accurate_long_balls": 4.8243, "touches": 43.4928, "clearances": 1.6207, "ball_recovery": 6.7776, "high_claims": 1.3953, "punches": 0.8333, "aerial_won": 0.1076, "sweeper_actions": 1.0335, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0335, "saves_inside_box": 1.9513, "possession_lost": 8.947, "duels_won": 0.2153, "duels_lost": 0.0778, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0778, "fouls_drawn": 0.1076, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0294, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9965 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-14", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-03", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-31", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-16", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 21.9965, "accurateLongBalls": 4.8243, "possessionLostCtrl": 8.947, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2922, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.362, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.0335 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8053579330444336, "model_output": 2.8054, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1635 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0627 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0008, "total": 2.8054, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057572 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.022473 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.004894 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.004735 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.003746 } ], "others_margin": 0.000238 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.012728794477880001, "model_output": 0.0127, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0187, "total": 0.0127, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.024402 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016394 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016369 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013877 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.01135 } ], "others_margin": -0.018676 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.029392719268799, "model_output": 7.0294, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": 0.0006, "total": 7.0294, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.023018 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.022261 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016425 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.015844 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.008805 } ], "others_margin": 0.000451 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7835, "goals_prevented": 0.0126, "rating": 7.0294, "minutes": 34.0, "total_pass": 33.4102, "accurate_pass": 24.8282, "total_long_balls": 13.1947, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7867, "touches": 43.1536, "clearances": 1.6081, "ball_recovery": 6.7247, "high_claims": 1.3844, "punches": 0.8268, "aerial_won": 0.1068, "sweeper_actions": 1.0254, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0254, "saves_inside_box": 1.9361, "possession_lost": 8.8772, "duels_won": 0.2136, "duels_lost": 0.0772, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0772, "fouls_drawn": 0.1068, "total_own_half_passes": 23.842, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8249 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0167)", "stats": { "saves": 2.756, "goals_prevented": 0.0126, "rating": 7.0294, "minutes": 34.0, "total_pass": 33.4102, "accurate_pass": 24.8282, "total_long_balls": 13.1947, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7867, "touches": 43.1536, "clearances": 1.6081, "ball_recovery": 6.7247, "high_claims": 1.3844, "punches": 0.8268, "aerial_won": 0.1068, "sweeper_actions": 1.0254, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0254, "saves_inside_box": 1.9361, "possession_lost": 8.8772, "duels_won": 0.2136, "duels_lost": 0.0772, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0759, "fouls_drawn": 0.105, "total_own_half_passes": 23.842, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8249 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0167, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3778, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.7835, "after": 2.756 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 34.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.356, "goals_prevented": 0.0016, "rating": 7.0294, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 34.0, "minutes_scale": 0.1292, "appearance_probability": 0.131 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.356, "goals_prevented": 0.0016, "rating": 7.0294, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.356, "goals_prevented": 0.0016, "rating": 7.0294, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.131, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.356, "goals_prevented": 0.0016, "rating": 7.0294, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3175, "fifa_rank": 1406.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Matteo Ruggeri": { "player_id": 965011, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 187, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.0655, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, 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"is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0263, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 20, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735.0, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", 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"team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "expected_assists": 0.2177, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083242.0, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081810.0, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1267, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2325, "combined_rank_score": 844.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1244.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6634, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matteo Ruggeri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Asadbek Karimov", "ranking": 2320 }, { "player_name": "Sunnatilla Poyonov", "ranking": 2321 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Torres", "ranking": 2322 }, { "player_name": "Lars Traber", "ranking": 2323 }, { "player_name": "Adem Zorgane", "ranking": 2324 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Oihan Sancet", "ranking": 2326 }, { "player_name": "Dušan Tadić", "ranking": 2327 }, { "player_name": "Christian Eriksen", "ranking": 2328 }, { "player_name": "Yerko Leiva", "ranking": 2329 }, { "player_name": "Sergiño Dest", "ranking": 2330 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 11.51, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.623, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0081, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (30 historical appearances) to 11.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.62); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost 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"ball_carries": 2.9913, "total_progression": 3.7337, "progressive_carries": 0.4194, "key_pass": 0.0915, "shots_off_target": 0.1634 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:04:53.735026+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 631, "rows": 22117 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 6.2 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"name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.048233 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.041675 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.033786 } ], "others_margin": -0.025163 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9623197913169861, "model_output": 0.9623, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.157 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0924 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0556 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0491 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0428 } ], "others": -0.0565, "total": 0.9623, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.998335 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.076231 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.048821 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.045241 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.041179 } ], "others_margin": -0.056985 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.38898560404777527, "model_output": 0.389, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7667 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1628 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0313, "total": 0.389, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.820361 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.314595 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.04129 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.039485 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.034528 } ], "others_margin": -0.077603 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16344963014125824, "model_output": 0.1634, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1966 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0832 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0402, "total": 0.1634, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.196613 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.083182 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019505 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.01128 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.010413 } ], "others_margin": -0.040192 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.66340446472168, "model_output": 6.6634, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0633, "total": 6.6634, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024115 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01695 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.012876 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.009062 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009029 } ], "others_margin": -0.063344 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4259, "tackles": 0.5766, "tackles_won": 0.3495, "clearances": 0.9701, "aerial_won": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.1648, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 15.1042, "accurate_pass": 12.8653, "duels_won": 0.5702, "total_long_balls": 0.954, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4086, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.794, "crosses_total": 1.0338, "crosses_accurate": 0.2511, "touches": 22.4032, "possession_lost": 3.9642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.95, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.1333, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7538, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1276, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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0.2478 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0786 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.063 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.031 } ], "others": -0.0191, "total": 0.556, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.485022 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.247797 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078644 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.062951 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.030973 } ], "others_margin": -0.019095 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.657912254333496, "model_output": 6.6579, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0761 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0531 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.03, "total": 6.6579, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076099 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.053114 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018739 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01121 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010411 } ], "others_margin": -0.02992 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3767, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0521, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.0664, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1732, "total_shots": 0.7848, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 14.1991, "accurate_pass": 11.6908, "duels_won": 2.0419, "total_long_balls": 0.3964, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3964, "total_own_half_passes": 8.2377, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9613, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9466, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.239, "possession_lost": 3.0568, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6605, "aerial_won": 0.5485, "aerial_lost": 0.7785, "interceptions": 0.3964, "tackles_won": 0.5485, "tackles": 0.9449, "clearances": 2.9964, "total_contest": 0.5485, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3892, "fouls": 0.4662, "fouls_drawn": 0.5485, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.7847, "total_progression": 20.9148, "progressive_carries": 1.0971, "shots_off_target": 0.6116, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.08 (squad xG sum 1.1472, xG scale 0.9440, xA scale 1.2035, team xA 0.70 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3767, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "assist_rate": 0.0521, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0664, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1732, "total_shots": 0.7848, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 14.1991, "accurate_pass": 11.6908, "duels_won": 2.0419, "total_long_balls": 0.3964, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3964, "total_own_half_passes": 8.2377, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9613, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9466, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.239, "possession_lost": 3.0568, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6605, "aerial_won": 0.5485, "aerial_lost": 0.7785, "interceptions": 0.3964, "tackles_won": 0.5485, "tackles": 0.9449, "clearances": 2.9964, "total_contest": 0.5485, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3892, "fouls": 0.4662, "fouls_drawn": 0.5485, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.7847, "total_progression": 20.9148, "progressive_carries": 1.0971, "shots_off_target": 0.6116, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0798, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.083, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1472, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5849, "team_expected_assists": 0.7039, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.944, "xa_scale": 1.2035, "opponent_lambda": 1.698, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.512 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0578, "after": 0.0279 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0202, "after": 0.0124 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0280, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0687, "goals": 0.0777, "goal_rate": 0.0777, "shots_on_target": 0.2187, "total_shots": 0.7056, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "key_pass": 0.4145, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 22.91, "total_pass": 8.9435, "accurate_pass": 6.9447, "duels_won": 2.203, "total_long_balls": 0.2475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7668, "crosses_total": 0.7199, "crosses_accurate": 0.1099, "touches": 15.5744, "possession_lost": 4.4739, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.2087, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.2834, "won_contest": 0.7842, "ball_recovery": 1.1148, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.4264, "assists": 0.2104, "assist_rate": 0.2104, "interceptions": 0.3577, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2619, "clearances": 0.3625, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2104, "big_chances_missed": 0.1789, "xgot": 0.047, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0223, "total_progression": 49.229, "progressive_carries": 1.9863, "shots_off_target": 0.4869 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.9 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goals": 0.0894, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assists": 0.2422, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, "big_chances_missed": 0.2059, "xgot": 0.0541, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9322, "total_progression": 56.6673, "progressive_carries": 2.2864, "shots_off_target": 0.5605, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 22.91, "minutes_scale": 1.1511, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goals": 0.0894, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assists": 0.2422, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, "big_chances_missed": 0.2059, "xgot": 0.0541, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9322, "total_progression": 56.6673, "progressive_carries": 2.2864, "shots_off_target": 0.5605, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, "big_chances_missed": 0.2059, "xgot": 0.0541, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9322, "total_progression": 56.6673, "progressive_carries": 2.2864, "shots_off_target": 0.5605, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.08 (squad xG sum 1.1472, xG scale 0.9440, xA scale 1.2035, team xA 0.70 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, "big_chances_missed": 0.2059, "xgot": 0.0311, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9322, "total_progression": 56.6673, "progressive_carries": 2.2864, "shots_off_target": 0.5605, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0798, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.083, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1472, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5849, "team_expected_assists": 0.7039, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.944, "xa_scale": 1.2035, "opponent_lambda": 1.698, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0791, "after": 0.0454 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0497, "after": 0.0364 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, "big_chances_missed": 0.2059, "xgot": 0.0311, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9322, "total_progression": 56.6673, "progressive_carries": 2.2864, "shots_off_target": 0.5605, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0798, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3297, "fifa_rank": 1817.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, "big_chances_missed": 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"player_id": 2070311, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 193, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goal_rate": 0.1083, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6627, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 4.6737, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 21, 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"margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.383972 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.189095 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.124957 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.081297 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.070077 } ], "others_margin": -0.094506 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.66266393661499, "model_output": 6.6627, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0546 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": 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"contribution": -2.157 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0924 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0556 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0491 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0428 } ], "others": -0.0565, "total": 0.9623, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.998335 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.076231 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.048821 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.045241 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.041179 } ], "others_margin": -0.056985 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.38898560404777527, "model_output": 0.389, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7667 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1628 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0313, "total": 0.389, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.820361 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.314595 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.04129 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.039485 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.034528 } ], "others_margin": -0.077603 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16344963014125824, "model_output": 0.1634, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1966 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0832 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0402, "total": 0.1634, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.196613 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.083182 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019505 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.01128 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.010413 } ], "others_margin": -0.040192 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.66340446472168, "model_output": 6.6634, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0633, "total": 6.6634, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024115 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01695 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.012876 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.009062 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009029 } ], "others_margin": -0.063344 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4259, "tackles": 0.5766, "tackles_won": 0.3495, "clearances": 0.9701, "aerial_won": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.1648, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 22.09, "total_pass": 15.1042, "accurate_pass": 12.8653, "duels_won": 0.5702, "total_long_balls": 0.954, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4086, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.794, "crosses_total": 1.0338, "crosses_accurate": 0.2511, "touches": 22.4032, "possession_lost": 3.9642, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.95, "aerial_lost": 0.217, "total_contest": 0.1333, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7538, "challenges_lost": 0.5331, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1276, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0783 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0167, "total": 6.7171, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078314 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.020811 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016085 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014213 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012286 } ], "others_margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0280, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0687, "goals": 0.0777, "goal_rate": 0.0777, "shots_on_target": 0.2187, "total_shots": 0.7056, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "key_pass": 0.4145, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 22.91, "total_pass": 8.9435, "accurate_pass": 6.9447, "duels_won": 2.203, "total_long_balls": 0.2475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7668, "crosses_total": 0.7199, "crosses_accurate": 0.1099, "touches": 15.5744, "possession_lost": 4.4739, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.2087, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.2834, "won_contest": 0.7842, "ball_recovery": 1.1148, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.4264, "assists": 0.2104, "assist_rate": 0.2104, "interceptions": 0.3577, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2619, "clearances": 0.3625, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2104, "big_chances_missed": 0.1789, "xgot": 0.047, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0223, "total_progression": 49.229, "progressive_carries": 1.9863, "shots_off_target": 0.4869 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.9 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goals": 0.0894, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assists": 0.2422, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, "big_chances_missed": 0.2059, "xgot": 0.0541, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9322, "total_progression": 56.6673, "progressive_carries": 2.2864, "shots_off_target": 0.5605, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 22.91, "minutes_scale": 1.1511, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goals": 0.0894, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assists": 0.2422, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, "big_chances_missed": 0.2059, "xgot": 0.0541, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9322, "total_progression": 56.6673, "progressive_carries": 2.2864, "shots_off_target": 0.5605, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, "big_chances_missed": 0.2059, "xgot": 0.0541, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9322, "total_progression": 56.6673, "progressive_carries": 2.2864, "shots_off_target": 0.5605, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.08 (squad xG sum 1.1472, xG scale 0.9440, xA scale 1.2035, team xA 0.70 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, "big_chances_missed": 0.2059, "xgot": 0.0311, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9322, "total_progression": 56.6673, "progressive_carries": 2.2864, "shots_off_target": 0.5605, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0798, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.083, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1472, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5849, "team_expected_assists": 0.7039, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.944, "xa_scale": 1.2035, "opponent_lambda": 1.698, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0791, "after": 0.0454 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0497, "after": 0.0364 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, "big_chances_missed": 0.2059, "xgot": 0.0311, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9322, "total_progression": 56.6673, "progressive_carries": 2.2864, "shots_off_target": 0.5605, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0798, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3297, "fifa_rank": 1817.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, "big_chances_missed": 0.2059, "xgot": 0.0311, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9322, "total_progression": 56.6673, "progressive_carries": 2.2864, "shots_off_target": 0.5605, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0437, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0798, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "scorer_weight": 0.049, "squad_weight_total": 1.1046, "weight_share": 0.0444, "finishing_factor": 1.0798, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0894, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.8122, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.4771, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2948, "accurate_pass": 7.994, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.487, "crosses_total": 0.8287, "crosses_accurate": 0.1265, "touches": 17.9276, "possession_lost": 5.1499, "dispossessed": 0.6209, "duels_lost": 2.5424, "aerial_lost": 0.5682, "total_contest": 1.4773, "won_contest": 0.9027, "ball_recovery": 1.2832, "challenges_lost": 0.2813, "fouls": 0.2752, "fouls_drawn": 0.4908, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4117, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3015, "clearances": 0.4173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2422, "big_chances_missed": 0.2059, "xgot": 0.0311, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9322, "total_progression": 56.6673, "progressive_carries": 2.2864, "shots_off_target": 0.5605, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0437, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0353, "finishing_factor": 1.0798, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.2422, "provider_weight": 0.0455, "squad_weight_total": 0.722, "weight_share": 0.063, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Brian Madjo": { "player_id": 2070311, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 193, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0546, "goal_rate": 0.1083, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6627, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 4.6737, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0522, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0263, "finishing_factor": 1.0798, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363892.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 7348, "combined_rank_score": 5773.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 11414.0, "fifa_overall": 65.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6627, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Brian Madjo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Joel Grodowski", "ranking": 7343 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Faúndez", "ranking": 7344 }, { "player_name": "Jón Dagur Þorsteinsson", "ranking": 7345 }, { "player_name": "Patric Pfeiffer", "ranking": 7346 }, { "player_name": "Aleksandar Vukotić", "ranking": 7347 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexander Rossipal", "ranking": 7349 }, { "player_name": "Oliver Olsen", "ranking": 7350 }, { "player_name": "Christoph Kobald", "ranking": 7351 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Nollenberger", "ranking": 7352 }, { "player_name": "Nihad Mujakić", "ranking": 7353 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", 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"margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.383972 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.189095 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.124957 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.081297 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.070077 } ], "others_margin": -0.094506 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.66266393661499, "model_output": 6.6627, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0546 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": 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"big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.7847, "total_progression": 20.9148, "progressive_carries": 1.0971, "shots_off_target": 0.6116, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0798, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 368, "fifa_rank": 233.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3767, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "assist_rate": 0.0521, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0664, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1732, "total_shots": 0.7848, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 14.1991, "accurate_pass": 11.6908, "duels_won": 2.0419, "total_long_balls": 0.3964, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3964, "total_own_half_passes": 8.2377, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9613, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9466, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.239, "possession_lost": 3.0568, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6605, "aerial_won": 0.5485, "aerial_lost": 0.7785, "interceptions": 0.3964, "tackles_won": 0.5485, "tackles": 0.9449, "clearances": 2.9964, "total_contest": 0.5485, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3892, "fouls": 0.4662, "fouls_drawn": 0.5485, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.7847, "total_progression": 20.9148, "progressive_carries": 1.0971, "shots_off_target": 0.6116, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0272, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0798, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0272, "goal_rate": 0.0664, "scorer_weight": 0.0301, "squad_weight_total": 1.1046, "weight_share": 0.0273, "finishing_factor": 1.0798, "appearance_weight": 0.512, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3767, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "assist_rate": 0.0521, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "goal_rate": 0.0664, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1732, "total_shots": 0.7848, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 14.1991, "accurate_pass": 11.6908, "duels_won": 2.0419, "total_long_balls": 0.3964, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3964, "total_own_half_passes": 8.2377, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7443, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9613, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9466, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.239, "possession_lost": 3.0568, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6605, "aerial_won": 0.5485, "aerial_lost": 0.7785, "interceptions": 0.3964, "tackles_won": 0.5485, "tackles": 0.9449, "clearances": 2.9964, "total_contest": 0.5485, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3892, "fouls": 0.4662, "fouls_drawn": 0.5485, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.7847, "total_progression": 20.9148, "progressive_carries": 1.0971, "shots_off_target": 0.6116, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.687, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0272, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0123, "finishing_factor": 1.0798, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0123, "assist_rate": 0.0521, "provider_weight": 0.0155, "squad_weight_total": 0.722, "weight_share": 0.0215, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.512, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.08, "expected_assists": 0.7, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 451, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 6.89, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Bruno Fernandes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Victor Lindelöf" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.46, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.559, "xg_contribution": 0.2522, "xg_multiplier": 1.1164, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Victor Lindelöf", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.441 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bruno Fernandes (LW) is slightly favored against Victor Lindelöf in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.252 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Youri Tielemans", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Ian Maatsen" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "xg_contribution": 0.0592, "xg_multiplier": 0.9823, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ian Maatsen", "role": "LB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youri Tielemans (RW) is evenly matched against Ian Maatsen in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Baleba", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Boubacar Kamara", "João Gomes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.789, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.256, "xg_contribution": 0.0591, "xg_multiplier": 1.024, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Boubacar Kamara", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.744 }, { "player": "João Gomes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.744 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Baleba (CAM) is evenly matched against Boubacar Kamara and João Gomes in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bryan Mbeumo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Matty Cash", "Tyrone Mings" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.535, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.277, "xg_contribution": 0.3881, "xg_multiplier": 1.1126, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matty Cash", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.723 }, { "player": "Tyrone Mings", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.723 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Mbeumo (ST) is slightly favored against Matty Cash and Tyrone Mings in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.388 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Kobbie Mainoo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Boubacar Kamara" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.439, "xg_contribution": 0.0525, "xg_multiplier": 1.028, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Boubacar Kamara", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.561 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kobbie Mainoo (CDM) is evenly matched against Boubacar Kamara in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €49M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Andrey Santos", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Boubacar Kamara" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.396, "xg_contribution": 0.0545, "xg_multiplier": 0.9653, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Boubacar Kamara", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.604 } ], "duel_analysis": "Andrey Santos (CDM) is evenly matched against Boubacar Kamara in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Johan Manzambi", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 71000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.872, "defenders": [ "Lisandro Martínez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "xg_contribution": 0.2546, "xg_multiplier": 1.0435, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lisandro Martínez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.49 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johan Manzambi (LW) is evenly matched against Lisandro Martínez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€71M vs €48M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.255 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lamare Bogarde", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 17500000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.606, "defenders": [ "Luke Shaw" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.534, "xg_contribution": 0.0387, "xg_multiplier": 1.079, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luke Shaw", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.466 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamare Bogarde (RW) is slightly favored against Luke Shaw in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Amadou Onana", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Andrey Santos" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.84, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.254, "xg_contribution": 0.0844, "xg_multiplier": 1.0205, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.746 }, { "player": "Andrey Santos", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.746 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amadou Onana (CAM) is evenly matched against Kobbie Mainoo and Andrey Santos in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €60M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Nicolas Jackson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Matthijs de Ligt", "Harry Maguire" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.596, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.25, "xg_contribution": 0.3933, "xg_multiplier": 1.0735, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matthijs de Ligt", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75 }, { "player": "Harry Maguire", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nicolas Jackson (ST) is slightly favored against Matthijs de Ligt and Harry Maguire in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €17M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.393 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Boubacar Kamara", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 49000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.821, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "xg_contribution": 0.0417, "xg_multiplier": 0.972, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.599 } ], "duel_analysis": "Boubacar Kamara (CDM) is evenly matched against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€49M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "João Gomes", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.344, "xg_contribution": 0.0274, "xg_multiplier": 0.889, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.656 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Gomes (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€36M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.027 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.863, "away_midfield_power": 0.814, "home_creative_power": 0.735, "away_creative_power": 0.635, "home_defensive_power": 0.708, "away_defensive_power": 0.744, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.515, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Bruno Fernandes", "Youri Tielemans", "Carlos Baleba", "Kobbie Mainoo", "Andrey Santos" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Boubacar Kamara", "Amadou Onana", "João Gomes", "Johan Manzambi", "Lamare Bogarde" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.5, "key_personal_duel": "Kobbie Mainoo vs Johan Manzambi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.003, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.993 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.698, "away_lambda": 1.083, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Bruno Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "Victor Lindelöf", "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Youri Tielemans": { "opponents": [ "Ian Maatsen", "Lamare Bogarde" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Baleba": { "opponents": [ "Boubacar Kamara", "João Gomes", "Amadou Onana" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bryan Mbeumo": { "opponents": [ "Matty Cash", "Tyrone Mings" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kobbie Mainoo": { "opponents": [ "Boubacar Kamara", "Amadou Onana", "João Gomes" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrey Santos": { "opponents": [ "Boubacar Kamara", "Amadou Onana", "João Gomes" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lisandro Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luke Shaw": { "opponents": [ "Lamare Bogarde" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matthijs de Ligt": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Harry Maguire": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Senne Lammens": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson", "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Victor Lindelöf": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ian Maatsen": { "opponents": [ "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Boubacar Kamara": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Baleba", "Kobbie Mainoo", "Andrey Santos" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "João Gomes": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Baleba", "Kobbie Mainoo", "Andrey Santos" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matty Cash": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tyrone Mings": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Johan Manzambi": { "opponents": [ "Lisandro Martínez", "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lamare Bogarde": { "opponents": [ "Luke Shaw", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Amadou Onana": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Andrey Santos", "Carlos Baleba" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nicolas Jackson": { "opponents": [ "Matthijs de Ligt", "Harry Maguire" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Zion Suzuki": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Mbeumo", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Kobbie Mainoo vs Johan Manzambi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8928, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8743, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1672, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1577, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9598, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.934, "home_midfield_factor": 1.003, "away_midfield_factor": 0.993, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7442, "away_avg_quality": 0.6889, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0553, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.2839, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.2432, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.257, "elite_count_gap": 3, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1245, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0684, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0398, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8656, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0117 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.003, "result": 1.0147 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0147 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.3184 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.973, "result": 1.2828 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8928, "result": 1.1452 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9598, "result": 1.0991 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1672, "result": 1.2663 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2663, "result": 1.2663, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1245, "factor": 1.0684, "pre": 1.2663, "result": 1.353 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.353 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.573 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.573 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.573, "result": 1.573, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.73 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 1.73, "result": 1.7795, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.779 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.779 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.779, "result": 1.779, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.993, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.698 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8401, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9926 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.993, "result": 0.9856 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9856 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9856 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0067, "result": 0.9922 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8743, "result": 0.8676 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.934, "result": 0.8103 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1577, "result": 0.968 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.968, "result": 0.968, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1245, "factor": 0.9602, "pre": 0.968, "result": 0.9294 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9294 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.156, "result": 1.085 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.085 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.085, "result": 1.085, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.052 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 1.052, "result": 1.0219, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.022 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.022 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.022, "result": 1.022, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.993, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.083 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.156, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.779, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.022, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.573, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.085, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.993, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.698, "final_away_lambda": 1.083 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.973, "attack_index": 0.965, "defense_concede_index": 0.977, "form_multiplier": 0.981, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.32, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.34, "team_ppg": 1.01, "opponent_ppg": 1.34 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0067, "attack_index": 0.877, "defense_concede_index": 1.148, "form_multiplier": 1.019, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.2, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.57, "team_ppg": 1.34, "opponent_ppg": 1.01 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Man Utd vs Aston Villa. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.573, Away 1.085). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.698, Away 1.083 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.698, "away_lambda": 1.083, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.573, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.085 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.993, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:37:01Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }