{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Barcelona", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261108", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0897, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0644, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0897, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Barcelona", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2102, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0897 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0852 }, { "score": "2-2", "probability": 0.0682 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0644 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0633 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0268, "0-1": 0.0551, "0-2": 0.0589, "0-3": 0.0416, "0-4": 0.0221, "0-5": 0.0093, "0-6": 0.0033, "0-7": 0.001, "1-0": 0.0394, "1-1": 0.0852, "1-2": 0.0897, "1-3": 0.0633, "1-4": 0.0335, "1-5": 0.0142, "1-6": 0.005, "1-7": 0.0015, "2-0": 0.0304, "2-1": 0.0644, "2-2": 0.0682, "2-3": 0.0482, "2-4": 0.0255, "2-5": 0.0108, "2-6": 0.0038, "2-7": 0.0012, "3-0": 0.0154, "3-1": 0.0326, "3-2": 0.0346, "3-3": 0.0244, "3-4": 0.0129, "3-5": 0.0055, "3-6": 0.0019, "3-7": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0059, "4-1": 0.0124, "4-2": 0.0131, "4-3": 0.0093, "4-4": 0.0049, "4-5": 0.0021, "4-6": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0018, "5-1": 0.0038, "5-2": 0.004, "5-3": 0.0028, "5-4": 0.0015, "5-5": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.001, "6-2": 0.001, "6-3": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2759, "draw": 0.2102, "away_win": 0.5139 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7042, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2958, "btts_yes": 0.6882, "btts_no": 0.3118, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1202, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2185 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.05, "MCR": 7.05, "ATR": 6.93, "GK": 7.01 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.08, "MCR": 7.24, "ATR": 7.72, "GK": 6.91 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Atlético Madrid 3W-1D-6L vs Barcelona over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ademola Lookman, Lamine Yamal, Raphinha", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo Barrios vs Pedri will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 1.88. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.521, "away_lambda": 2.119, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 3, "away_wins": 6, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 0.9786, "away_multiplier": 1.0214 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-2", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.0897, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2759, "draw": 0.2102, "away_win": 0.5139 }, "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5139, "fair_spread": -0.598, "fair_total": 3.64, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Atlético Madrid", "estimate": 1.521, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 2.119, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7042, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6882, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Atlético Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1202, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2185, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ademola Lookman (Atlético Madrid)", "estimate": 0.2246, "probability": 0.2012, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Raphinha (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.6227, "probability": 0.4635, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Kang-in Lee (Atlético Madrid)", "estimate": 0.2185, "probability": 0.1963, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.355, "probability": 0.2988, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.64, "expected_total_shots": 36, "expected_total_passes": 1245, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.4, "possession_home_pct": 48.8, "possession_away_pct": 51.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5139, "script": "Barcelona is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.60 goals and fair total 3.64.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 18 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Atlético Madrid must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Barcelona lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Barcelona chance creation leans on Raphinha against Cristian Romero in Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Atlético Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Ademola Lookman; bench watchlist: Julián Alvarez, Alex Baena, Morten Hjulmand.", "Barcelona: starters carry the main goal usage through Lamine Yamal, Raphinha; bench watchlist: Dani Olmo, Karim Adeyemi, Gabriel Jesus.", "Assist usage should flow through Alejandro Grimaldo, Lamine Yamal; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Barcelona tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 18 total first-half shots, and 1.82 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Atlético Madrid is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Barcelona.", "Atlético Madrid wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Atlético Madrid": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Jan Oblak": { "player_id": 69768, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 189, "market_value": 16000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0358, "rating": 7.0141, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 11, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 36, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.4567, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 7.0636, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.6747, "shots_faced": 20.1, "expected_saves": 4.92, "high_pressure_saves": 1.7, "opponent_faced": "Raphinha, Lamine Yamal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421096.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.771 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421082.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.9056 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 121, "combined_rank_score": 112.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 180.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 45.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0141, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jan Oblak", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Viktor Gyökeres", "ranking": 116 }, { "player_name": "Matías Zaldivia", "ranking": 117 }, { "player_name": "Adrián de la Fuente", "ranking": 118 }, { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 119 }, { "player_name": "Marquinhos", "ranking": 120 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Morgan Rogers", "ranking": 122 }, { "player_name": "Joan García", "ranking": 123 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Henrique", "ranking": 124 }, { "player_name": "Jung Seung-bae", "ranking": 125 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Badolato", "ranking": 126 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0028, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9783, "goals_prevented": 0.0357, "rating": 7.0141, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.9341, "accurate_pass": 20.0675, "total_long_balls": 11.2809, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5569, "touches": 35.7094, "clearances": 0.5374, "ball_recovery": 8.2972, "high_claims": 0.3519, "punches": 0.4554, "aerial_won": 0.0706, "sweeper_actions": 0.5786, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5786, "saves_inside_box": 1.8959, "possession_lost": 7.0439, "duels_won": 0.1209, "duels_lost": 0.0026, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0507, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3178, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3605 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-31", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 5.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 8.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 18.3604, "accurateLongBalls": 4.5569, "possessionLostCtrl": 7.0439, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.1736, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.4181, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.5786 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.978301763534546, "model_output": 2.9783, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0595 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0066, "total": 2.9783, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.020164 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.008306 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.006482 }, { 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"name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.015394 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.011971 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.011344 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.009163 } ], "others_margin": -0.001511 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.014123916625977, "model_output": 7.0141, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0229 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0294, "total": 7.0141, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.037516 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.02285 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019495 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011984 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.011489 } ], "others_margin": -0.029374 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.590)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9866, "goals_prevented": 0.0358, "rating": 7.0141, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0095, "accurate_pass": 20.1237, "total_long_balls": 11.3125, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5697, "touches": 35.8094, "clearances": 0.5389, "ball_recovery": 8.3204, "high_claims": 0.3529, "punches": 0.4567, "aerial_won": 0.0708, "sweeper_actions": 0.5802, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5802, "saves_inside_box": 1.9012, "possession_lost": 7.0636, "duels_won": 0.1212, "duels_lost": 0.0026, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0508, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.4119 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16000000, "quality_factor": 0.59, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0141)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9868, "goals_prevented": 0.0358, "rating": 7.0141, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0095, "accurate_pass": 20.1237, "total_long_balls": 11.3125, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5697, "touches": 35.8094, "clearances": 0.5389, "ball_recovery": 8.3204, "high_claims": 0.3529, "punches": 0.4567, "aerial_won": 0.0708, "sweeper_actions": 0.5802, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5802, "saves_inside_box": 1.9012, "possession_lost": 7.0636, "duels_won": 0.1212, "duels_lost": 0.0026, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0548, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.4119 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0141, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9868, "goals_prevented": 0.0358, "rating": 7.0141, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0095, "accurate_pass": 20.1237, "total_long_balls": 11.3125, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5697, "touches": 35.8094, "clearances": 0.5389, "ball_recovery": 8.3204, "high_claims": 0.3529, "punches": 0.4567, "aerial_won": 0.0708, "sweeper_actions": 0.5802, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5802, "saves_inside_box": 1.9012, "possession_lost": 7.0636, "duels_won": 0.1212, "duels_lost": 0.0026, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0548, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.4119 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9868, "goals_prevented": 0.0358, "rating": 7.0141, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0095, "accurate_pass": 20.1237, "total_long_balls": 11.3125, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5697, "touches": 35.8094, "clearances": 0.5389, "ball_recovery": 8.3204, "high_claims": 0.3529, "punches": 0.4567, "aerial_won": 0.0708, "sweeper_actions": 0.5802, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5802, "saves_inside_box": 1.9012, "possession_lost": 7.0636, "duels_won": 0.1212, "duels_lost": 0.0026, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0548, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.4119, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.6747, "shots_faced": 25.4, "expected_saves": 6.22, "high_pressure_saves": 2.14, "opponent_faced": "Raphinha, Lamine Yamal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Raphinha, Lamine Yamal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 2.6747 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9868, "goals_prevented": 0.0358, "rating": 7.0141, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0095, "accurate_pass": 20.1237, "total_long_balls": 11.3125, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5697, "touches": 35.8094, "clearances": 0.5389, "ball_recovery": 8.3204, "high_claims": 0.3529, "punches": 0.4567, "aerial_won": 0.0708, "sweeper_actions": 0.5802, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5802, "saves_inside_box": 1.9012, "possession_lost": 7.0636, "duels_won": 0.1212, "duels_lost": 0.0026, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0548, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.4119, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.6747, "shots_faced": 25.4, "expected_saves": 6.22, "high_pressure_saves": 2.14, "opponent_faced": "Raphinha, Lamine Yamal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.0663, xG scale 1.4264, xA scale 1.1809, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9868, "goals_prevented": 0.0358, "rating": 7.0141, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0095, "accurate_pass": 20.1237, "total_long_balls": 11.3125, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5697, "touches": 35.8094, "clearances": 0.5389, "ball_recovery": 8.3204, "high_claims": 0.3529, "punches": 0.4567, "aerial_won": 0.0708, "sweeper_actions": 0.5802, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5802, "saves_inside_box": 1.9012, "possession_lost": 7.0636, "duels_won": 0.1212, "duels_lost": 0.0026, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0548, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.4119, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.6747, "shots_faced": 20.1, "expected_saves": 4.92, "high_pressure_saves": 1.7, "opponent_faced": "Raphinha, Lamine Yamal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.521, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0663, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0304, "team_expected_assists": 1.2168, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4264, "xa_scale": 1.1809, "opponent_lambda": 2.119, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 25.4, "after": 20.1 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 6.22, "after": 4.92 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 2.14, "after": 1.7 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9868, "goals_prevented": 0.0358, "rating": 7.0141, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0095, "accurate_pass": 20.1237, "total_long_balls": 11.3125, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5697, "touches": 35.8094, "clearances": 0.5389, "ball_recovery": 8.3204, "high_claims": 0.3529, "punches": 0.4567, "aerial_won": 0.0708, "sweeper_actions": 0.5802, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5802, "saves_inside_box": 1.9012, "possession_lost": 7.0636, "duels_won": 0.1212, "duels_lost": 0.0026, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0548, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.4119, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.6747, "shots_faced": 20.1, "expected_saves": 4.92, "high_pressure_saves": 1.7, "opponent_faced": "Raphinha, Lamine Yamal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 121, "fifa_rank": 45.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9868, "goals_prevented": 0.0358, "rating": 7.0141, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0095, "accurate_pass": 20.1237, "total_long_balls": 11.3125, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5697, "touches": 35.8094, "clearances": 0.5389, "ball_recovery": 8.3204, 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"squad_weight_total": 1.6848, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.267, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.267, "runner_up": "Giuliano Simeone", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2163 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9868, "goals_prevented": 0.0358, "rating": 7.0141, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0095, "accurate_pass": 20.1237, "total_long_balls": 11.3125, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5697, "touches": 35.8094, "clearances": 0.5389, "ball_recovery": 8.3204, "high_claims": 0.3529, "punches": 0.4567, "aerial_won": 0.0708, "sweeper_actions": 0.5802, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5802, "saves_inside_box": 1.9012, "possession_lost": 7.0636, "duels_won": 0.1212, "duels_lost": 0.0026, "total_contest": 0.0, 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"total": 0.7232, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.207024 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.033302 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032975 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.029699 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024541 } ], "others_margin": 0.040394 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.120481967926025, "model_output": 7.1205, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0516 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0469 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0429 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0413 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0239 } ], "others": 0.1151, "total": 7.1205, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.051585 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.046939 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.042929 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.041294 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023892 } ], "others_margin": 0.115064 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0377, "tackles": 1.4359, "tackles_won": 0.844, "clearances": 4.3046, "aerial_won": 2.2797, "total_shots": 0.7315, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 78.84, "total_pass": 57.0967, "accurate_pass": 52.2759, "duels_won": 6.3509, "total_long_balls": 4.3797, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8718, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9362, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3397, "crosses_total": 0.0257, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.699, "possession_lost": 5.8779, "dispossessed": 0.1811, "duels_lost": 3.107, "aerial_lost": 1.3849, "total_contest": 0.3638, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 4.3999, "challenges_lost": 0.3348, "fouls": 1.3493, "fouls_drawn": 1.0417, "blocks": 0.6105, "goals": 0.2199, "goal_rate": 0.2199, "assists": 0.0036, "assist_rate": 0.0036, "expected_goals": 0.1169, "expected_assists": 0.0609, "shots_on_target": 0.4318, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.1896, "ball_carries": 21.104, "total_progression": 112.4807, "progressive_carries": 0.4427, "key_pass": 0.3055, "shots_off_target": 0.2997 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0377, "tackles": 1.4359, "tackles_won": 0.844, "clearances": 4.3046, "aerial_won": 2.2797, "total_shots": 0.7315, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 78.84, "total_pass": 57.0967, "accurate_pass": 52.2759, "duels_won": 6.3509, "total_long_balls": 4.3797, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8718, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9362, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3397, "crosses_total": 0.0257, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.699, "possession_lost": 5.8779, "dispossessed": 0.1811, "duels_lost": 3.107, "aerial_lost": 1.3849, "total_contest": 0.3638, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 4.3999, "challenges_lost": 0.3348, "fouls": 1.3493, "fouls_drawn": 1.0417, "blocks": 0.6105, "goals": 0.2199, "goal_rate": 0.2199, "assists": 0.0036, "assist_rate": 0.0036, "expected_goals": 0.1169, "expected_assists": 0.0609, "shots_on_target": 0.4318, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.1896, "ball_carries": 21.104, "total_progression": 112.4807, "progressive_carries": 0.4427, "key_pass": 0.3055, "shots_off_target": 0.2997 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0377, "tackles": 1.4359, "tackles_won": 0.844, "clearances": 4.3046, "aerial_won": 2.2797, "total_shots": 0.7315, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 78.84, "total_pass": 57.0967, "accurate_pass": 52.2759, "duels_won": 6.3509, "total_long_balls": 4.3797, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8718, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9362, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3397, "crosses_total": 0.0257, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.699, "possession_lost": 5.8779, "dispossessed": 0.1811, "duels_lost": 3.107, "aerial_lost": 1.3849, "total_contest": 0.3638, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 4.3999, "challenges_lost": 0.3348, "fouls": 1.3493, "fouls_drawn": 1.0417, "blocks": 0.6105, "goals": 0.2199, "goal_rate": 0.2199, "assists": 0.0036, "assist_rate": 0.0036, "expected_goals": 0.1169, "expected_assists": 0.0609, "shots_on_target": 0.4318, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.1896, "ball_carries": 21.104, "total_progression": 112.4807, "progressive_carries": 0.4427, "key_pass": 0.3055, "shots_off_target": 0.2997, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545, "opponent_faced": "Raphinha", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Raphinha", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0377, "tackles": 1.4359, "tackles_won": 0.844, "clearances": 4.3046, "aerial_won": 2.2797, "total_shots": 0.7315, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 78.84, "total_pass": 57.0967, "accurate_pass": 52.2759, "duels_won": 6.3509, "total_long_balls": 4.3797, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8718, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9362, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3397, "crosses_total": 0.0257, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.699, "possession_lost": 5.8779, "dispossessed": 0.1811, "duels_lost": 3.107, "aerial_lost": 1.3849, "total_contest": 0.3638, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 4.3999, "challenges_lost": 0.3348, "fouls": 1.3493, "fouls_drawn": 1.0417, "blocks": 0.6105, "goal_rate": 0.2199, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1169, "expected_assists": 0.0609, "shots_on_target": 0.4318, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.1896, "ball_carries": 21.104, "total_progression": 112.4807, "progressive_carries": 0.4427, "key_pass": 0.3055, "shots_off_target": 0.2997, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545, "opponent_faced": "Raphinha", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.0663, xG scale 1.4264, xA scale 1.1809, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0377, "tackles": 1.4359, "tackles_won": 0.844, "clearances": 4.3046, "aerial_won": 2.2797, "total_shots": 0.7315, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 78.84, "total_pass": 57.0967, "accurate_pass": 52.2759, "duels_won": 6.3509, "total_long_balls": 4.3797, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8718, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9362, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3397, "crosses_total": 0.0257, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.699, "possession_lost": 5.8779, "dispossessed": 0.1811, "duels_lost": 3.107, "aerial_lost": 1.3849, "total_contest": 0.3638, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 4.3999, "challenges_lost": 0.3348, "fouls": 1.3493, "fouls_drawn": 1.0417, "blocks": 0.6105, "goal_rate": 0.2199, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1667, "expected_assists": 0.0719, "shots_on_target": 0.4318, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.2705, "ball_carries": 21.104, "total_progression": 112.4807, "progressive_carries": 0.4427, "key_pass": 0.3055, "shots_off_target": 0.2997, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545, "opponent_faced": "Raphinha", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.521, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0663, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0304, "team_expected_assists": 1.2168, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4264, "xa_scale": 1.1809, "opponent_lambda": 2.119, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1169, "after": 0.1667 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0609, "after": 0.0719 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0377, "tackles": 1.4359, "tackles_won": 0.844, "clearances": 4.3046, "aerial_won": 2.2797, "total_shots": 0.7315, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 78.84, "total_pass": 57.0967, "accurate_pass": 52.2759, "duels_won": 6.3509, "total_long_balls": 4.3797, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8718, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9362, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3397, "crosses_total": 0.0257, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.699, "possession_lost": 5.8779, "dispossessed": 0.1811, "duels_lost": 3.107, "aerial_lost": 1.3849, "total_contest": 0.3638, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 4.3999, "challenges_lost": 0.3348, "fouls": 1.3493, "fouls_drawn": 1.0417, "blocks": 0.6105, "goal_rate": 0.2199, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1667, "expected_assists": 0.0719, "shots_on_target": 0.4318, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.2705, "ball_carries": 21.104, "total_progression": 112.4807, "progressive_carries": 0.4427, "key_pass": 0.3055, "shots_off_target": 0.2997, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545, "opponent_faced": "Raphinha", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 332, "fifa_rank": 372.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0377, "tackles": 1.4359, "tackles_won": 0.844, "clearances": 4.3046, "aerial_won": 2.2797, "total_shots": 0.7315, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 78.84, "total_pass": 57.0967, "accurate_pass": 52.2759, "duels_won": 6.3509, "total_long_balls": 4.3797, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8718, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9362, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.3397, "crosses_total": 0.0257, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.699, "possession_lost": 5.8779, "dispossessed": 0.1811, "duels_lost": 3.107, "aerial_lost": 1.3849, "total_contest": 0.3638, "won_contest": 0.3444, "ball_recovery": 4.3999, "challenges_lost": 0.3348, "fouls": 1.3493, "fouls_drawn": 1.0417, "blocks": 0.6105, "goal_rate": 0.2199, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1667, "expected_assists": 0.0719, "shots_on_target": 0.4318, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.2705, "ball_carries": 21.104, "total_progression": 112.4807, "progressive_carries": 0.4427, "key_pass": 0.3055, "shots_off_target": 0.2997, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545, "opponent_faced": "Raphinha", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1535, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1535, "goal_rate": 0.2199, "scorer_weight": 0.2084, "squad_weight_total": 1.6848, "weight_share": 0.1237, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.267, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.267, "runner_up": "Giuliano Simeone", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2163 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0377, "tackles": 1.4359, "tackles_won": 0.844, "clearances": 4.3046, "aerial_won": 2.2797, "total_shots": 0.7315, "rating": 7.1205, "minutes": 78.84, "total_pass": 57.0967, "accurate_pass": 52.2759, "duels_won": 6.3509, "total_long_balls": 4.3797, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8718, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9362, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8715, 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0.020226 } ], "others_margin": -0.051081 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.47566792368888855, "model_output": 0.4757, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0569 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0517, "total": 0.4757, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056865 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.02064 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.020471 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"projected_match_rating": 7.0231, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dávid Hancko", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Emil Tîmbur", "ranking": 203 }, { "player_name": "Matvii Ponomarenko", "ranking": 204 }, { "player_name": "Kim In-sung", "ranking": 205 }, { "player_name": "Marco Carnesecchi", "ranking": 206 }, { "player_name": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "ranking": 207 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dae-han Park", "ranking": 209 }, { "player_name": "Vladimir Jovović", "ranking": 210 }, { "player_name": "Kenan Yıldız", "ranking": 211 }, { "player_name": "Ruslanbek Jiyanov", "ranking": 212 }, { "player_name": "Jovan Đokić", "ranking": 213 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", 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"defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.0364 } ], "others_margin": 0.012369 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7223281860351562, "model_output": 0.7223, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1773 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0431 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": 0.0138, "total": 0.7223, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.177312 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.043115 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.032 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021378 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.017485 } ], "others_margin": 0.013791 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.023133754730225, "model_output": 7.0231, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0527 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": 0.0289, "total": 7.0231, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.057685 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.052701 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.048896 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023057 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012963 } ], "others_margin": 0.029051 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0083, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9477, "tackles": 1.185, "tackles_won": 0.7045, "clearances": 4.977, "aerial_won": 1.4, "total_shots": 0.7283, "rating": 7.0231, "minutes": 88.49, "total_pass": 67.7408, "accurate_pass": 61.5009, "duels_won": 3.3065, "total_long_balls": 6.5638, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2226, "total_own_half_passes": 42.5065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.7367, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.2343, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.7641, "crosses_total": 0.1866, "crosses_accurate": 0.0117, "touches": 80.8973, "possession_lost": 7.6062, "dispossessed": 0.1596, "duels_lost": 1.9142, "aerial_lost": 0.7467, "total_contest": 0.4655, "won_contest": 0.4231, "ball_recovery": 3.7093, "challenges_lost": 0.6921, "fouls": 0.2866, "fouls_drawn": 0.1548, "blocks": 0.9725, "goals": 0.0, 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[ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1119 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0841 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0345 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0251 } ], "others": 0.0703, "total": 7.2092, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.111864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.084097 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034451 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025916 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025069 } ], "others_margin": 0.070404 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0156, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.271, "expected_assists": 0.1154, "assists": 0.0907, "assist_rate": 0.0907, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0632, "shots_on_target": 0.2524, "total_shots": 0.919, "rating": 7.2092, "minutes": 70.71, "total_pass": 50.1214, "accurate_pass": 44.2369, "duels_won": 4.1942, "total_long_balls": 3.3156, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4515, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2657, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.2079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.971, "crosses_total": 0.9926, "crosses_accurate": 0.2981, "touches": 64.2016, "possession_lost": 10.417, "dispossessed": 1.4374, "duels_lost": 3.3978, "aerial_won": 0.6727, "aerial_lost": 0.1929, "interceptions": 1.3743, "tackles_won": 0.813, "tackles": 1.3524, "clearances": 0.5439, "total_contest": 2.1259, "won_contest": 1.4434, "challenges_lost": 0.6894, "fouls": 0.3957, "fouls_drawn": 0.7257, "blocks": 0.1078, "big_chances_created": 0.1292, "big_chances_missed": 0.013, "xgot": 0.0662, "ball_carries": 21.643, "total_progression": 70.0108, "progressive_carries": 1.8056, "shots_off_target": 0.6665 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0156, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0138)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.271, "expected_assists": 0.1154, "assists": 0.0942, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goals": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "shots_on_target": 0.2537, "total_shots": 0.9111, "rating": 7.2092, "minutes": 70.71, "total_pass": 50.1214, "accurate_pass": 44.2369, "duels_won": 4.1942, "total_long_balls": 3.3156, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4515, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2657, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.2079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.971, "crosses_total": 0.9836, "crosses_accurate": 0.2981, "touches": 64.2016, "possession_lost": 10.417, "dispossessed": 1.4374, "duels_lost": 3.3978, "aerial_won": 0.6727, "aerial_lost": 0.1929, "interceptions": 1.3695, "tackles_won": 0.8112, "tackles": 1.3524, "clearances": 0.5439, "total_contest": 2.1259, "won_contest": 1.4434, "challenges_lost": 0.6894, "fouls": 0.3997, "fouls_drawn": 0.7393, "blocks": 0.1078, "big_chances_created": 0.1292, "big_chances_missed": 0.013, "xgot": 0.0662, "ball_carries": 21.643, "total_progression": 70.0108, "progressive_carries": 1.8056, "shots_off_target": 0.6665 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0138, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7857, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7257, "after": 0.7393 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9926, "after": 0.9836 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.919, "after": 0.9111 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.271, "expected_assists": 0.1154, "assists": 0.0942, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goals": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0623, "shots_on_target": 0.2537, "total_shots": 0.9202, "rating": 7.2092, "minutes": 70.71, "total_pass": 50.1214, "accurate_pass": 44.2369, "duels_won": 4.1942, "total_long_balls": 3.3156, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4515, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2657, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.2079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.971, "crosses_total": 0.9836, "crosses_accurate": 0.2981, "touches": 64.2016, "possession_lost": 10.417, "dispossessed": 1.4374, "duels_lost": 3.3978, "aerial_won": 0.6727, "aerial_lost": 0.1929, "interceptions": 1.3695, "tackles_won": 0.8112, "tackles": 1.3524, "clearances": 0.5439, "total_contest": 2.1259, "won_contest": 1.4434, "challenges_lost": 0.6894, "fouls": 0.3997, "fouls_drawn": 0.7393, "blocks": 0.1078, "big_chances_created": 0.1292, "big_chances_missed": 0.013, "xgot": 0.0662, "ball_carries": 21.643, "total_progression": 70.0108, "progressive_carries": 1.8056, "shots_off_target": 0.6665 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.271, "expected_assists": 0.1154, "assists": 0.0942, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "expected_goals": 0.0634, "goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.062, "shots_on_target": 0.2525, "total_shots": 0.916, "rating": 7.2092, "minutes": 70.71, "total_pass": 50.1214, "accurate_pass": 44.2369, "duels_won": 4.1942, "total_long_balls": 3.3156, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4515, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2657, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.2079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.971, "crosses_total": 0.9836, "crosses_accurate": 0.2981, "touches": 64.2016, "possession_lost": 10.417, "dispossessed": 1.4374, "duels_lost": 3.3978, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1929, "interceptions": 1.3695, "tackles_won": 0.8112, "tackles": 1.3524, "clearances": 0.5439, "total_contest": 2.1259, "won_contest": 1.4434, "challenges_lost": 0.6894, "fouls": 0.3997, "fouls_drawn": 0.7393, "blocks": 0.1078, "big_chances_created": 0.1292, "big_chances_missed": 0.0129, "xgot": 0.0659, "ball_carries": 21.643, "total_progression": 70.0108, "progressive_carries": 1.8056, "shots_off_target": 0.6634, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9954, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rodri, Pedri", "opponent_faced": "Rodri, Pedri", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Rodri, Pedri", "matchup_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9954, "skill_edge": 0.0029, "height_edge": -0.006, "attacker_skill": 0.8863, "defender_skill": 0.8799, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Rodri", "market_value": 54000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8599 }, { "player": "Pedri", "market_value": 164000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.8999 } ], "xg_override": 0.0634 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6727, "after": 1.1 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.271, "expected_assists": 0.1154, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0634, "goal_rate": 0.062, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2525, "total_shots": 0.916, "rating": 7.2092, "minutes": 70.71, "total_pass": 50.1214, "accurate_pass": 44.2369, "duels_won": 4.1942, "total_long_balls": 3.3156, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4515, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2657, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.2079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.971, "crosses_total": 0.9836, "crosses_accurate": 0.2981, "touches": 64.2016, "possession_lost": 10.417, "dispossessed": 1.4374, "duels_lost": 3.3978, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1929, "interceptions": 1.3695, "tackles_won": 0.8112, "tackles": 1.3524, "clearances": 0.5439, "total_contest": 2.1259, "won_contest": 1.4434, "challenges_lost": 0.6894, "fouls": 0.3997, "fouls_drawn": 0.7393, "blocks": 0.1078, "big_chances_created": 0.1292, "big_chances_missed": 0.0129, "xgot": 0.0659, "ball_carries": 21.643, "total_progression": 70.0108, "progressive_carries": 1.8056, "shots_off_target": 0.6634, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9954, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rodri, Pedri", "opponent_faced": "Rodri, Pedri", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.0663, xG scale 1.4264, xA scale 1.1809, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.271, "expected_assists": 0.1363, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.062, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2525, "total_shots": 0.916, "rating": 7.2092, "minutes": 70.71, "total_pass": 50.1214, "accurate_pass": 44.2369, "duels_won": 4.1942, "total_long_balls": 3.3156, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4515, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2657, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.2079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.971, "crosses_total": 0.9836, "crosses_accurate": 0.2981, "touches": 64.2016, "possession_lost": 10.417, "dispossessed": 1.4374, "duels_lost": 3.3978, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1929, "interceptions": 1.3695, "tackles_won": 0.8112, "tackles": 1.3524, "clearances": 0.5439, "total_contest": 2.1259, "won_contest": 1.4434, "challenges_lost": 0.6894, "fouls": 0.3997, "fouls_drawn": 0.7393, "blocks": 0.1078, "big_chances_created": 0.1292, "big_chances_missed": 0.0129, "xgot": 0.094, "ball_carries": 21.643, "total_progression": 70.0108, "progressive_carries": 1.8056, "shots_off_target": 0.6634, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9954, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rodri, Pedri", "opponent_faced": "Rodri, Pedri", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9877, "creation_factor": 0.8718 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.521, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0663, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0304, "team_expected_assists": 1.2168, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4264, "xa_scale": 1.1809, "opponent_lambda": 2.119, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0634, "after": 0.0904 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1154, "after": 0.1363 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.271, "expected_assists": 0.1363, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.062, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2525, "total_shots": 0.916, "rating": 7.2092, "minutes": 70.71, "total_pass": 50.1214, "accurate_pass": 44.2369, "duels_won": 4.1942, "total_long_balls": 3.3156, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4515, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2657, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.2079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.971, "crosses_total": 0.9836, "crosses_accurate": 0.2981, "touches": 64.2016, "possession_lost": 10.417, "dispossessed": 1.4374, "duels_lost": 3.3978, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1929, "interceptions": 1.3695, "tackles_won": 0.8112, "tackles": 1.3524, "clearances": 0.5439, "total_contest": 2.1259, "won_contest": 1.4434, "challenges_lost": 0.6894, "fouls": 0.3997, "fouls_drawn": 0.7393, "blocks": 0.1078, "big_chances_created": 0.1292, "big_chances_missed": 0.0129, "xgot": 0.094, "ball_carries": 21.643, "total_progression": 70.0108, "progressive_carries": 1.8056, "shots_off_target": 0.6634, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9954, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rodri, Pedri", "opponent_faced": "Rodri, Pedri", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9877, "creation_factor": 0.8718, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 246, "fifa_rank": 315.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.271, "expected_assists": 0.1363, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.062, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2525, "total_shots": 0.916, "rating": 7.2092, "minutes": 70.71, "total_pass": 50.1214, "accurate_pass": 44.2369, "duels_won": 4.1942, "total_long_balls": 3.3156, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4515, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2657, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.2079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.971, "crosses_total": 0.9836, "crosses_accurate": 0.2981, "touches": 64.2016, "possession_lost": 10.417, "dispossessed": 1.4374, "duels_lost": 3.3978, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1929, "interceptions": 1.3695, "tackles_won": 0.8112, "tackles": 1.3524, "clearances": 0.5439, "total_contest": 2.1259, "won_contest": 1.4434, "challenges_lost": 0.6894, "fouls": 0.3997, "fouls_drawn": 0.7393, "blocks": 0.1078, "big_chances_created": 0.1292, "big_chances_missed": 0.0129, "xgot": 0.094, "ball_carries": 21.643, "total_progression": 70.0108, "progressive_carries": 1.8056, "shots_off_target": 0.6634, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9954, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rodri, Pedri", "opponent_faced": "Rodri, Pedri", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0864, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9877, "creation_factor": 0.8718, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0864, "goal_rate": 0.062, "scorer_weight": 0.0893, "squad_weight_total": 1.6848, "weight_share": 0.053, "finishing_factor": 0.9877, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.267, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.267, "runner_up": "Giuliano Simeone", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2163 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.271, "expected_assists": 0.1363, "assist_rate": 0.0942, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goal_rate": 0.062, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2525, "total_shots": 0.916, "rating": 7.2092, "minutes": 70.71, "total_pass": 50.1214, "accurate_pass": 44.2369, "duels_won": 4.1942, "total_long_balls": 3.3156, "accurate_long_balls": 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"contribution": 0.0992 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.071 } ], "others": -0.1721, "total": 1.5922, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.293046 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.163354 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.152799 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.099186 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.070964 } ], "others_margin": -0.172062 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.103915691375732, "model_output": 7.1039, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0992 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.07 }, { 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1.5021, "total_contest": 2.5449, "won_contest": 1.3, "challenges_lost": 0.8199, "fouls": 0.7115, "fouls_drawn": 0.3489, "blocks": 0.1172, "big_chances_created": 0.3588, "big_chances_missed": 0.1314, "xgot": 0.3581, "ball_carries": 17.9357, "total_progression": 48.5501, "progressive_carries": 1.7092, "shots_off_target": 1.0006 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4401, "expected_assists": 0.1628, "assists": 0.1625, "assist_rate": 0.1625, "expected_goals": 0.1638, "goals": 0.1664, "goal_rate": 0.1664, "shots_on_target": 0.6108, "total_shots": 1.6114, "rating": 7.1039, "minutes": 88.86, "total_pass": 51.3001, "accurate_pass": 45.6803, "duels_won": 3.9332, "total_long_balls": 3.7711, 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"expected_assists": 0.1628, "assists": 0.1625, "assist_rate": 0.1625, "expected_goals": 0.1302, "goals": 0.1322, "goal_rate": 0.1322, "shots_on_target": 0.4854, "total_shots": 1.2806, "rating": 7.1039, "minutes": 88.86, "total_pass": 51.3001, "accurate_pass": 45.6803, "duels_won": 3.9332, "total_long_balls": 3.7711, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5488, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6554, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.0836, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.6447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5966, "crosses_total": 4.0789, "crosses_accurate": 0.6858, "touches": 74.4677, "possession_lost": 12.582, "dispossessed": 0.1908, "duels_lost": 3.3853, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.5609, "interceptions": 0.7855, "tackles_won": 1.3568, "tackles": 2.0049, "clearances": 1.5021, "total_contest": 2.5449, "won_contest": 1.3, "challenges_lost": 0.8199, "fouls": 0.7115, "fouls_drawn": 0.3489, "blocks": 0.1172, "big_chances_created": 0.3588, "big_chances_missed": 0.1044, "xgot": 0.2846, "ball_carries": 17.9357, 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1.2806, "rating": 7.1039, "minutes": 88.86, "total_pass": 51.3001, "accurate_pass": 45.6803, "duels_won": 3.9332, "total_long_balls": 3.7711, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5488, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6554, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.0836, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.6447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5966, "crosses_total": 4.0789, "crosses_accurate": 0.6858, "touches": 74.4677, "possession_lost": 12.582, "dispossessed": 0.1908, "duels_lost": 3.3853, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.5609, "interceptions": 0.7855, "tackles_won": 1.3568, "tackles": 2.0049, "clearances": 1.5021, "total_contest": 2.5449, "won_contest": 1.3, "challenges_lost": 0.8199, "fouls": 0.7115, "fouls_drawn": 0.3489, "blocks": 0.1172, "big_chances_created": 0.3588, "big_chances_missed": 0.1044, "xgot": 0.2846, "ball_carries": 17.9357, "total_progression": 48.5501, "progressive_carries": 1.7092, "shots_off_target": 0.7952, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7947, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, 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"duels_won": 3.9332, "total_long_balls": 3.7711, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5488, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6554, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.0836, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.6447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5966, "crosses_total": 4.0789, "crosses_accurate": 0.6858, "touches": 74.4677, "possession_lost": 12.582, "dispossessed": 0.1908, "duels_lost": 3.3853, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.5609, "interceptions": 0.7855, "tackles_won": 1.3568, "tackles": 2.0049, "clearances": 1.5021, "total_contest": 2.5449, "won_contest": 1.3, "challenges_lost": 0.8199, "fouls": 0.7115, "fouls_drawn": 0.3489, "blocks": 0.1172, "big_chances_created": 0.3588, "big_chances_missed": 0.1044, "xgot": 0.406, "ball_carries": 17.9357, "total_progression": 48.5501, "progressive_carries": 1.7092, "shots_off_target": 0.7952, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7947, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.32, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Eric García", "opponent_faced": "Eric García", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0111, "creation_factor": 0.9986 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.521, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0663, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0304, "team_expected_assists": 1.2168, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4264, "xa_scale": 1.1809, "opponent_lambda": 2.119, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1302, "after": 0.1857 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1628, "after": 0.1922 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0008, quality 0.514)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5553, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "assists": 0.0643, "assist_rate": 0.0643, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goals": 0.0599, "goal_rate": 0.0599, "shots_on_target": 0.1717, "total_shots": 0.5864, "rating": 6.8427, "minutes": 81.82, "total_pass": 32.9065, "accurate_pass": 26.9706, "duels_won": 5.0802, "total_long_balls": 3.357, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8007, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2919, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8726, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6145, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0979, "crosses_total": 0.3387, "crosses_accurate": 0.0662, "touches": 47.0479, "possession_lost": 9.015, "dispossessed": 0.1738, "duels_lost": 2.3907, "aerial_won": 0.2407, "aerial_lost": 0.7226, "interceptions": 0.6734, "tackles_won": 1.5223, "tackles": 2.6189, "clearances": 0.7522, "total_contest": 1.8046, "won_contest": 1.3225, "challenges_lost": 0.8193, "fouls": 0.3196, "fouls_drawn": 0.8982, "blocks": 0.7736, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.681, "total_progression": 54.0903, "progressive_carries": 1.4168, "shots_off_target": 0.4147 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9300000, "quality_factor": 0.5142, "boost_factor": 1.0008, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 12, "history_shrink": 0.2941, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5553, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "assists": 0.0643, "assist_rate": 0.0643, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goals": 0.0599, "goal_rate": 0.0599, "shots_on_target": 0.1717, "total_shots": 0.5864, "rating": 6.8427, "minutes": 81.82, "total_pass": 32.9065, "accurate_pass": 26.9706, "duels_won": 5.0802, "total_long_balls": 3.357, 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0.0813 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0669 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0271 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0076, "total": 0.5787, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.227619 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.155195 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134201 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049644 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.019253 } ], "others_margin": 0.013252 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.5234898328781128, "model_output": 1.5235, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3485 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1537 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0312 } ], "others": -0.0676, "total": 1.5235, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.348531 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.153708 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.040814 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.031969 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.031193 } ], "others_margin": -0.06766 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.059337139129639, "model_output": 7.0593, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0939 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0528 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": 0.0042, "total": 7.0593, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.093871 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.052807 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028219 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.013573 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.009235 } ], "others_margin": 0.00423 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.059159 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.028708 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.025083 } ], "others_margin": 0.054649 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0243, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.128, "goals": 0.1824, "goal_rate": 0.1824, "shots_on_target": 0.6815, "total_shots": 2.2502, "expected_assists": 0.185, "key_pass": 1.7418, "rating": 7.0903, "minutes": 72.1, "total_pass": 37.5582, "accurate_pass": 31.6941, "duels_won": 4.0006, "total_long_balls": 2.6754, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6337, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6912, "crosses_total": 1.7897, "crosses_accurate": 0.6048, "touches": 52.7653, "possession_lost": 11.5568, "dispossessed": 1.3956, "duels_lost": 5.7064, "aerial_lost": 0.7597, "total_contest": 3.3318, "won_contest": 1.803, "ball_recovery": 3.0505, "challenges_lost": 0.9301, "fouls": 1.3663, "fouls_drawn": 0.8938, "assists": 0.0641, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "interceptions": 0.1589, "tackles_won": 0.6405, "tackles": 0.852, "clearances": 0.1798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1685, "big_chances_missed": 0.1127, "xgot": 0.1657, "offsides": 0.1044, "ball_carries": 22.3948, "total_progression": 77.8287, "progressive_carries": 3.883, "shots_off_target": 1.5687 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0243, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.128, "goals": 0.1824, "goal_rate": 0.1824, "shots_on_target": 0.6815, "total_shots": 2.2502, "expected_assists": 0.185, "key_pass": 1.7418, "rating": 7.0903, "minutes": 72.1, "total_pass": 37.5582, "accurate_pass": 31.6941, "duels_won": 4.0006, "total_long_balls": 2.6754, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6337, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6912, "crosses_total": 1.7897, "crosses_accurate": 0.6048, "touches": 52.7653, "possession_lost": 11.5568, "dispossessed": 1.3956, "duels_lost": 5.7064, "aerial_lost": 0.7597, "total_contest": 3.3318, "won_contest": 1.803, "ball_recovery": 3.0505, "challenges_lost": 0.9301, "fouls": 1.3663, "fouls_drawn": 0.8938, "assists": 0.0641, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "interceptions": 0.1589, "tackles_won": 0.6405, "tackles": 0.852, "clearances": 0.1798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1685, "big_chances_missed": 0.1127, "xgot": 0.1657, "offsides": 0.1044, "ball_carries": 22.3948, "total_progression": 77.8287, "progressive_carries": 3.883, "shots_off_target": 1.5687 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goals": 0.1583, "goal_rate": 0.1583, "shots_on_target": 0.5913, "total_shots": 1.9525, "expected_assists": 0.185, "key_pass": 1.7418, "rating": 7.0903, "minutes": 72.1, "total_pass": 37.5582, "accurate_pass": 31.6941, "duels_won": 4.0006, "total_long_balls": 2.6754, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6337, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6912, "crosses_total": 1.7897, "crosses_accurate": 0.6048, "touches": 52.7653, "possession_lost": 11.5568, "dispossessed": 1.3956, "duels_lost": 5.7064, "aerial_lost": 0.7597, "total_contest": 3.3318, "won_contest": 1.803, "ball_recovery": 3.0505, "challenges_lost": 0.9301, "fouls": 1.3663, "fouls_drawn": 0.8938, "assists": 0.0641, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "interceptions": 0.1589, "tackles_won": 0.6405, "tackles": 0.852, "clearances": 0.1798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1685, "big_chances_missed": 0.0978, "xgot": 0.1438, "offsides": 0.1044, "ball_carries": 22.3948, "total_progression": 77.8287, "progressive_carries": 3.883, "shots_off_target": 1.3612, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8677, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8677, "skill_edge": -0.042, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.7641, "defender_skill": 0.8575, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "market_value": 94000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8981 }, { "player": "Gerard Martín", "market_value": 36000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8168 } ], "xg_override": 0.1111 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2502, "after": 1.9525 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.5687, "after": 1.3612 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6815, "after": 0.5913 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1824, "after": 0.1583 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1657, "after": 0.1438 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.128, "after": 0.1111 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1127, "after": 0.0978 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goal_rate": 0.1583, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5913, "total_shots": 1.9525, "expected_assists": 0.185, "key_pass": 1.7418, "rating": 7.0903, "minutes": 72.1, "total_pass": 37.5582, "accurate_pass": 31.6941, "duels_won": 4.0006, "total_long_balls": 2.6754, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6337, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6912, "crosses_total": 1.7897, "crosses_accurate": 0.6048, "touches": 52.7653, "possession_lost": 11.5568, "dispossessed": 1.3956, "duels_lost": 5.7064, "aerial_lost": 0.7597, "total_contest": 3.3318, "won_contest": 1.803, "ball_recovery": 3.0505, "challenges_lost": 0.9301, "fouls": 1.3663, "fouls_drawn": 0.8938, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1589, "tackles_won": 0.6405, "tackles": 0.852, "clearances": 0.1798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1685, "big_chances_missed": 0.0978, "xgot": 0.1438, "offsides": 0.1044, "ball_carries": 22.3948, "total_progression": 77.8287, "progressive_carries": 3.883, "shots_off_target": 1.3612, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8677, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.0663, xG scale 1.4264, xA scale 1.1809, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1585, "goal_rate": 0.1583, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5913, "total_shots": 1.9525, "expected_assists": 0.2185, "key_pass": 1.7418, "rating": 7.0903, "minutes": 72.1, "total_pass": 37.5582, "accurate_pass": 31.6941, "duels_won": 4.0006, "total_long_balls": 2.6754, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6337, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6912, "crosses_total": 1.7897, "crosses_accurate": 0.6048, "touches": 52.7653, "possession_lost": 11.5568, "dispossessed": 1.3956, "duels_lost": 5.7064, "aerial_lost": 0.7597, "total_contest": 3.3318, "won_contest": 1.803, "ball_recovery": 3.0505, "challenges_lost": 0.9301, "fouls": 1.3663, "fouls_drawn": 0.8938, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1589, "tackles_won": 0.6405, "tackles": 0.852, "clearances": 0.1798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1685, "big_chances_missed": 0.0978, "xgot": 0.2051, "offsides": 0.1044, "ball_carries": 22.3948, "total_progression": 77.8287, "progressive_carries": 3.883, "shots_off_target": 1.3612, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8677, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.521, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0663, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0304, "team_expected_assists": 1.2168, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4264, "xa_scale": 1.1809, "opponent_lambda": 2.119, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1111, "after": 0.1585 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.185, "after": 0.2185 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1585, "goal_rate": 0.1583, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5913, "total_shots": 1.9525, "expected_assists": 0.2185, "key_pass": 1.7418, "rating": 7.0903, "minutes": 72.1, "total_pass": 37.5582, "accurate_pass": 31.6941, "duels_won": 4.0006, "total_long_balls": 2.6754, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6337, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6912, "crosses_total": 1.7897, "crosses_accurate": 0.6048, "touches": 52.7653, "possession_lost": 11.5568, "dispossessed": 1.3956, "duels_lost": 5.7064, "aerial_lost": 0.7597, "total_contest": 3.3318, "won_contest": 1.803, "ball_recovery": 3.0505, "challenges_lost": 0.9301, "fouls": 1.3663, "fouls_drawn": 0.8938, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1589, "tackles_won": 0.6405, "tackles": 0.852, "clearances": 0.1798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1685, "big_chances_missed": 0.0978, "xgot": 0.2051, "offsides": 0.1044, "ball_carries": 22.3948, "total_progression": 77.8287, "progressive_carries": 3.883, "shots_off_target": 1.3612, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8677, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 802, "fifa_rank": 759.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1585, "goal_rate": 0.1583, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5913, "total_shots": 1.9525, "expected_assists": 0.2185, "key_pass": 1.7418, "rating": 7.0903, "minutes": 72.1, "total_pass": 37.5582, "accurate_pass": 31.6941, "duels_won": 4.0006, "total_long_balls": 2.6754, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6337, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6912, "crosses_total": 1.7897, "crosses_accurate": 0.6048, "touches": 52.7653, "possession_lost": 11.5568, "dispossessed": 1.3956, "duels_lost": 5.7064, "aerial_lost": 0.7597, "total_contest": 3.3318, "won_contest": 1.803, "ball_recovery": 3.0505, "challenges_lost": 0.9301, "fouls": 1.3663, "fouls_drawn": 0.8938, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1589, "tackles_won": 0.6405, "tackles": 0.852, "clearances": 0.1798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1685, "big_chances_missed": 0.0978, "xgot": 0.2051, "offsides": 0.1044, "ball_carries": 22.3948, "total_progression": 77.8287, "progressive_carries": 3.883, "shots_off_target": 1.3612, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8677, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1466, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1466, "goal_rate": 0.1583, "scorer_weight": 0.1981, "squad_weight_total": 1.6848, "weight_share": 0.1176, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.267, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.267, "runner_up": "Giuliano Simeone", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2163 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1585, "goal_rate": 0.1583, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5913, "total_shots": 1.9525, "expected_assists": 0.2185, "key_pass": 1.7418, "rating": 7.0903, "minutes": 72.1, "total_pass": 37.5582, "accurate_pass": 31.6941, "duels_won": 4.0006, "total_long_balls": 2.6754, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6337, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6912, "crosses_total": 1.7897, "crosses_accurate": 0.6048, "touches": 52.7653, "possession_lost": 11.5568, "dispossessed": 1.3956, "duels_lost": 5.7064, "aerial_lost": 0.7597, "total_contest": 3.3318, "won_contest": 1.803, "ball_recovery": 3.0505, "challenges_lost": 0.9301, "fouls": 1.3663, "fouls_drawn": 0.8938, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1589, "tackles_won": 0.6405, "tackles": 0.852, "clearances": 0.1798, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1685, "big_chances_missed": 0.0978, "xgot": 0.2051, "offsides": 0.1044, "ball_carries": 22.3948, "total_progression": 77.8287, "progressive_carries": 3.883, "shots_off_target": 1.3612, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8677, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", 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"description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.0663, xG scale 1.4264, xA scale 1.1809, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2246, "goal_rate": 0.1966, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5726, "total_shots": 1.473, "expected_assists": 0.0905, "key_pass": 0.8866, "rating": 6.7742, "minutes": 61.02, "total_pass": 18.95, "accurate_pass": 15.9751, "duels_won": 1.6552, "total_long_balls": 0.469, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0909, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.745, "crosses_total": 0.9621, "crosses_accurate": 0.1446, "touches": 28.9455, "possession_lost": 7.6093, "dispossessed": 1.1243, "duels_lost": 4.3237, "aerial_lost": 0.1974, "total_contest": 2.0464, "won_contest": 0.4289, "ball_recovery": 1.805, "challenges_lost": 0.5727, "fouls": 0.8646, "fouls_drawn": 0.6929, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 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"totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": -0.032, "total": 6.9622, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.016775 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.014535 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.013583 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.012193 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.007977 } ], "others_margin": -0.032035 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083661.0, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634.0, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": 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"laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 701, "combined_rank_score": 338.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 100.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.475, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 576.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7738, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Robin Le Normand", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jamal Lewis", "ranking": 696 }, { "player_name": "Lasha Dvali", "ranking": 697 }, { "player_name": "Haris Hajdarević", "ranking": 698 }, { "player_name": "Adam Wharton", "ranking": 699 }, { "player_name": "Ji-ung Baek", "ranking": 700 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jonathan Villagra", "ranking": 702 }, { "player_name": "Bo-seob Kim", "ranking": 703 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Retegui", "ranking": 704 }, { "player_name": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "ranking": 705 }, { "player_name": "Bradley Barcola", "ranking": 706 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.226536191205138, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.23, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0037, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (35 historical appearances) to 14.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4062, "tackles": 0.5005, "tackles_won": 0.2717, "clearances": 1.7439, "aerial_won": 0.7512, "total_shots": 0.1644, "rating": 6.7738, "minutes": 29.26, "total_pass": 18.6602, "accurate_pass": 16.5587, "duels_won": 1.5651, "total_long_balls": 2.3841, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2213, "total_own_half_passes": 12.486, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4634, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1741, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0953, "crosses_total": 0.0923, "crosses_accurate": 0.0387, "touches": 23.307, "possession_lost": 2.3751, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9553, "aerial_lost": 0.4186, "total_contest": 0.1027, "won_contest": 0.1027, "ball_recovery": 1.0462, "challenges_lost": 0.1421, "fouls": 0.3946, "fouls_drawn": 0.2719, "blocks": 0.4112, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.1867, "total_progression": 20.8864, "progressive_carries": 0.3154, "key_pass": 0.0387, "shots_off_target": 0.1644 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:04:53.735026+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 631, "rows": 22117 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-31", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 49.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.3148, "aerialWon": 1.3943, "totalClearance_p90": 7.414, "totalTackle": 0.9509, "totalTackle_p90": 1.2293 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.40618768334388733, "model_output": 0.4062, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4853 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.006 } ], "others": -0.0278, "total": 0.4062, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.137969, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.814355 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.052003 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.036351 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.015494 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013806 } ], "others_margin": -0.066269 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5004743933677673, "model_output": 0.5005, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7617 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0486, "total": 0.5005, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.796206 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.037039 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.035667 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.032275 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.025768 } ], "others_margin": -0.092746 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.27171558141708374, "model_output": 0.2717, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1951 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4726 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0535, "total": 0.2717, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.814631 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.050225 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.038462 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.03075 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.024602 } ], "others_margin": -0.179715 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.7439420223236084, "model_output": 1.7439, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1621 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0925 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0718 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.075 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0691 } ], "others": 0.1819, "total": 1.7439, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.002394 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.071163 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.051956 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.051558 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.045272 } ], "others_margin": 0.110208 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7512459754943848, "model_output": 0.7512, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7758 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0546 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.022 } ], "others": 0.0224, "total": 0.7512, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.835557 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.087907 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.045697 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040453 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.030614 } ], "others_margin": 0.03027 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16436535120010376, "model_output": 0.1644, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1863 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0767 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0376, "total": 0.1644, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.186296 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.076734 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.019719 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.014936 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.011416 } ], "others_margin": -0.037653 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.773825645446777, "model_output": 6.7738, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0071 } ], "others": 0.0143, "total": 6.7738, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016052 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01228 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009954 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008009 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.007121 } ], "others_margin": 0.014219 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0037, quality 0.603)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4077, "tackles": 0.5023, "tackles_won": 0.2727, "clearances": 1.7504, "aerial_won": 0.754, "total_shots": 0.165, "rating": 6.7738, "minutes": 29.26, "total_pass": 18.7292, "accurate_pass": 16.62, "duels_won": 1.5709, "total_long_balls": 2.3929, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2258, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5322, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5058, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1142, "crosses_total": 0.0926, "crosses_accurate": 0.0388, "touches": 23.3932, "possession_lost": 2.3839, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9588, "aerial_lost": 0.4201, "total_contest": 0.1031, "won_contest": 0.1031, "ball_recovery": 1.0501, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.3961, "fouls_drawn": 0.2729, "blocks": 0.4127, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.2133, "total_progression": 20.9637, "progressive_carries": 0.3166, "key_pass": 0.0388, "shots_off_target": 0.165 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17200000, "quality_factor": 0.6027, "boost_factor": 1.0037, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0097)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4108, "tackles": 0.5023, "tackles_won": 0.2736, "clearances": 1.7504, "aerial_won": 0.754, "total_shots": 0.1634, "rating": 6.7738, "minutes": 29.26, "total_pass": 18.7292, "accurate_pass": 16.62, "duels_won": 1.5709, "total_long_balls": 2.3929, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2258, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5322, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5058, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1142, "crosses_total": 0.0917, "crosses_accurate": 0.0388, "touches": 23.3932, "possession_lost": 2.3839, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9588, "aerial_lost": 0.4201, "total_contest": 0.1031, "won_contest": 0.1031, "ball_recovery": 1.0501, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.3958, "fouls_drawn": 0.272, "blocks": 0.4127, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.2133, "total_progression": 20.9637, "progressive_carries": 0.3166, "key_pass": 0.0388, "shots_off_target": 0.165 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0097, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3251, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.3 to 14.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1997, "tackles": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.133, "clearances": 0.8511, "aerial_won": 0.3666, "total_shots": 0.0802, "rating": 6.7738, "minutes": 14.23, "total_pass": 9.1063, "accurate_pass": 8.0808, "duels_won": 0.7638, "total_long_balls": 1.1635, "accurate_long_balls": 0.596, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5942, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4866, "crosses_total": 0.0446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0189, "touches": 11.374, "possession_lost": 1.1591, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4662, "aerial_lost": 0.4201, "total_contest": 0.0501, "won_contest": 0.0501, "ball_recovery": 0.5106, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.1924, "fouls_drawn": 0.1322, "blocks": 0.2007, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5072, "total_progression": 10.1928, "progressive_carries": 0.1539, "key_pass": 0.0189, "shots_off_target": 0.0802, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.23 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.23, "projection_minutes": 29.26, "minutes_scale": 0.4862, "appearance_probability": 0.23 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1997, "tackles": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.133, "clearances": 0.8511, "aerial_won": 0.3666, "total_shots": 0.0802, "rating": 6.7738, "minutes": 14.23, "total_pass": 9.1063, "accurate_pass": 8.0808, "duels_won": 0.7638, "total_long_balls": 1.1635, "accurate_long_balls": 0.596, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5942, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4866, "crosses_total": 0.0446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0189, "touches": 11.374, "possession_lost": 1.1591, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4662, "aerial_lost": 0.4201, "total_contest": 0.0501, "won_contest": 0.0501, "ball_recovery": 0.5106, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.1924, "fouls_drawn": 0.1322, "blocks": 0.2007, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5072, "total_progression": 10.1928, "progressive_carries": 0.1539, "key_pass": 0.0189, "shots_off_target": 0.0802, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.23 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1997, "tackles": 0.2442, "tackles_won": 0.133, "clearances": 0.8511, "aerial_won": 0.3666, "total_shots": 0.0802, "rating": 6.7738, "minutes": 14.23, "total_pass": 9.1063, "accurate_pass": 8.0808, "duels_won": 0.7638, "total_long_balls": 1.1635, "accurate_long_balls": 0.596, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5942, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4866, "crosses_total": 0.0446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0189, "touches": 11.374, "possession_lost": 1.1591, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4662, "aerial_lost": 0.4201, "total_contest": 0.0501, "won_contest": 0.0501, "ball_recovery": 0.5106, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.1924, "fouls_drawn": 0.1322, "blocks": 0.2007, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5072, "total_progression": 10.1928, "progressive_carries": 0.1539, "key_pass": 0.0189, "shots_off_target": 0.0802, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.23, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, 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"contribution": 0.0155 } ], "others": -0.0417, "total": 0.2665, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.162842 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.063803 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.020486 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.017553 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.015491 } ], "others_margin": -0.041599 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.615686893463135, "model_output": 6.6157, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0441 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0156 } ], "others": -0.0723, "total": 6.6157, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.04405 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017588 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.01731 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016223 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015554 } ], "others_margin": -0.072366 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9972, quality 0.494)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3612, "tackles": 0.6816, "tackles_won": 0.3474, "clearances": 0.677, "aerial_won": 0.3758, "total_shots": 0.2658, "rating": 6.6157, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 12.9636, "accurate_pass": 12.9636, "duels_won": 2.9916, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9916, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9916, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.972, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.972, "crosses_total": 0.9972, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.9328, "possession_lost": 3.9888, "dispossessed": 0.9972, "duels_lost": 5.9832, "aerial_lost": 0.9972, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 3.9888, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.9972, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 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"log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.602004 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.172845 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.098181 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.067116 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.060411 } ], "others_margin": -0.494084 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2658999562263489, "model_output": 0.2659, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4011 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0446 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0231 } ], "others": -0.1873, "total": 0.2659, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.401081 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.044588 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.039057 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.023789 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.023148 } ], "others_margin": -0.187373 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.776134014129639, "model_output": 6.7761, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1138 }, { "name": 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"importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4499 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0204 } ], "others": -0.0063, "total": 0.5851, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.449889 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.036839 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.029645 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.028822 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.020392 } ], "others_margin": -0.006372 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.702051162719727, "model_output": 6.7021, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": 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0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "ball_carries": 3.8775, "total_progression": 15.5162, "progressive_carries": 0.2987, "shots_off_target": 0.2732, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.452, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.55 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.55, "projection_minutes": 20.65, "minutes_scale": 0.6562, "appearance_probability": 0.452 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1893, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assists": 0.0242, "assist_rate": 0.0242, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0312, "shots_on_target": 0.115, "total_shots": 0.3883, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 13.55, "total_pass": 9.1023, "accurate_pass": 7.4436, "duels_won": 1.0855, "total_long_balls": 0.4623, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1957, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3324, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0745, 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1.6848, "weight_share": 0.0131, "finishing_factor": 0.9398, "appearance_weight": 0.452, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.267, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.267, "runner_up": "Giuliano Simeone", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2163 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1893, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "assist_rate": 0.0242, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0235, "goal_rate": 0.0312, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.115, "total_shots": 0.3883, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 13.55, "total_pass": 9.1023, "accurate_pass": 7.4436, "duels_won": 1.0855, "total_long_balls": 0.4623, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1957, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3324, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0745, 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}, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.054596 } ], "others_margin": 0.229471 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.873805522918701, "model_output": 6.8738, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0161 } ], "others": 0.1072, "total": 6.8738, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087606 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.029346 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.019288 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.016193 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.016133 } ], "others_margin": 0.107118 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0143, quality 0.895)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1323, "goals": 0.1472, "goal_rate": 0.1472, "shots_on_target": 0.4843, "total_shots": 1.2217, "expected_assists": 0.0519, "key_pass": 0.7898, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 33.85, "total_pass": 18.026, "accurate_pass": 16.2914, "duels_won": 2.6211, "total_long_balls": 0.8698, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8028, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.541, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.94, "crosses_total": 0.7347, "crosses_accurate": 0.1945, "touches": 27.7161, "possession_lost": 5.1494, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.9478, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 2.4395, "won_contest": 1.6564, "ball_recovery": 1.0437, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.3435, "fouls_drawn": 0.5127, "assists": 0.1774, "assist_rate": 0.1774, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1237, "tackles": 0.2746, "clearances": 0.0349, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0693, "big_chances_missed": 0.5415, "xgot": 0.1427, "offsides": 0.0918, "ball_carries": 12.4008, "total_progression": 44.1022, "progressive_carries": 1.9162, "shots_off_target": 0.7374 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 107000000, "quality_factor": 0.8953, "boost_factor": 1.0143, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0016)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1323, "goals": 0.147, "goal_rate": 0.147, "shots_on_target": 0.4835, "total_shots": 1.2219, "expected_assists": 0.0519, "key_pass": 0.7898, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 33.85, "total_pass": 18.026, "accurate_pass": 16.2914, "duels_won": 2.6211, "total_long_balls": 0.8698, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8028, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.541, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.94, "crosses_total": 0.7335, "crosses_accurate": 0.1945, "touches": 27.7161, "possession_lost": 5.1494, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.9478, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 2.4395, "won_contest": 1.6564, "ball_recovery": 1.0437, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.343, "fouls_drawn": 0.5119, "assists": 0.1771, "assist_rate": 0.1771, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1235, "tackles": 0.2746, "clearances": 0.0349, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0693, "big_chances_missed": 0.5415, "xgot": 0.1427, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 12.4008, "total_progression": 44.1022, "progressive_carries": 1.9162, "shots_off_target": 0.7374 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0016, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3761, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 33.9 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goals": 0.1127, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "shots_on_target": 0.3707, "total_shots": 0.9367, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "key_pass": 0.6055, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.819, "accurate_pass": 12.4893, "duels_won": 2.0094, "total_long_balls": 0.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.92, "crosses_total": 0.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.1491, "touches": 21.2476, "possession_lost": 3.9476, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.4932, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 1.8702, "won_contest": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.8001, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.2629, "fouls_drawn": 0.3924, "assists": 0.1358, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0947, "tackles": 0.2105, "clearances": 0.0268, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0531, "big_chances_missed": 0.4151, "xgot": 0.1094, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 9.5067, "total_progression": 33.8095, "progressive_carries": 1.469, "shots_off_target": 0.5653, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.95, "projection_minutes": 33.85, "minutes_scale": 0.7666, "appearance_probability": 0.756 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goals": 0.1127, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "shots_on_target": 0.3707, "total_shots": 0.9367, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "key_pass": 0.6055, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.819, "accurate_pass": 12.4893, "duels_won": 2.0094, "total_long_balls": 0.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.92, "crosses_total": 0.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.1491, "touches": 21.2476, "possession_lost": 3.9476, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.4932, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 1.8702, "won_contest": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.8001, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.2629, "fouls_drawn": 0.3924, "assists": 0.1358, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0947, "tackles": 0.2105, "clearances": 0.0268, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0531, "big_chances_missed": 0.4151, "xgot": 0.1094, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 9.5067, "total_progression": 33.8095, "progressive_carries": 1.469, "shots_off_target": 0.5653, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3707, "total_shots": 0.9367, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "key_pass": 0.6055, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.819, "accurate_pass": 12.4893, "duels_won": 2.0094, "total_long_balls": 0.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.92, "crosses_total": 0.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.1491, "touches": 21.2476, "possession_lost": 3.9476, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.4932, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 1.8702, "won_contest": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.8001, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.2629, "fouls_drawn": 0.3924, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0947, "tackles": 0.2105, "clearances": 0.0268, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0531, "big_chances_missed": 0.4151, "xgot": 0.1094, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 9.5067, "total_progression": 33.8095, "progressive_carries": 1.469, "shots_off_target": 0.5653, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.0663, xG scale 1.4264, xA scale 1.1809, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1093, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3707, "total_shots": 0.9367, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "key_pass": 0.6055, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.819, "accurate_pass": 12.4893, "duels_won": 2.0094, "total_long_balls": 0.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.92, "crosses_total": 0.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.1491, "touches": 21.2476, "possession_lost": 3.9476, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.4932, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 1.8702, "won_contest": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.8001, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.2629, "fouls_drawn": 0.3924, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0947, "tackles": 0.2105, "clearances": 0.0268, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0531, "big_chances_missed": 0.4151, "xgot": 0.118, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 9.5067, "total_progression": 33.8095, "progressive_carries": 1.469, "shots_off_target": 0.5653, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0746, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.521, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0663, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0304, "team_expected_assists": 1.2168, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4264, "xa_scale": 1.1809, "opponent_lambda": 2.119, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.756 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1014, "after": 0.1093 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1093, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3707, "total_shots": 0.9367, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "key_pass": 0.6055, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.819, "accurate_pass": 12.4893, "duels_won": 2.0094, "total_long_balls": 0.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.92, "crosses_total": 0.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.1491, "touches": 21.2476, "possession_lost": 3.9476, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.4932, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 1.8702, "won_contest": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.8001, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.2629, "fouls_drawn": 0.3924, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0947, "tackles": 0.2105, "clearances": 0.0268, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0531, "big_chances_missed": 0.4151, "xgot": 0.118, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 9.5067, "total_progression": 33.8095, "progressive_carries": 1.469, "shots_off_target": 0.5653, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0746, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 66, "fifa_rank": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1093, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3707, "total_shots": 0.9367, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "key_pass": 0.6055, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.819, "accurate_pass": 12.4893, "duels_won": 2.0094, "total_long_balls": 0.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.92, "crosses_total": 0.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.1491, "touches": 21.2476, "possession_lost": 3.9476, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.4932, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 1.8702, "won_contest": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.8001, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.2629, "fouls_drawn": 0.3924, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0947, "tackles": 0.2105, "clearances": 0.0268, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0531, "big_chances_missed": 0.4151, "xgot": 0.118, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 9.5067, "total_progression": 33.8095, "progressive_carries": 1.469, "shots_off_target": 0.5653, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0746, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1018, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "scorer_weight": 0.1175, "squad_weight_total": 1.6848, "weight_share": 0.0697, "finishing_factor": 1.0746, "appearance_weight": 0.756, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.267, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.267, "runner_up": "Giuliano Simeone", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2163 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1093, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3707, "total_shots": 0.9367, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "key_pass": 0.6055, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.819, "accurate_pass": 12.4893, "duels_won": 2.0094, "total_long_balls": 0.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.92, "crosses_total": 0.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.1491, "touches": 21.2476, "possession_lost": 3.9476, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.4932, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 1.8702, "won_contest": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.8001, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.2629, "fouls_drawn": 0.3924, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0947, "tackles": 0.2105, "clearances": 0.0268, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0531, "big_chances_missed": 0.4151, "xgot": 0.118, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 9.5067, "total_progression": 33.8095, "progressive_carries": 1.469, "shots_off_target": 0.5653, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0347, "finishing_factor": 1.0746, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0347, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "provider_weight": 0.0444, "squad_weight_total": 1.1637, "weight_share": 0.0381, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.756, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "weight": 0.1919, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1919, "runner_up": "Kang-in Lee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1748, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ademola Lookman" ] } ] } } ] }, "Alex Baena": { "player_id": 910031, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 174, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.2174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0919, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 6.9189, "minutes": 34, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.368686 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.203168 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.140832 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.105275 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.085916 } ], "others_margin": 0.604313 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.918882846832275, "model_output": 6.9189, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0698 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.067 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0296 } ], "others": 0.0346, "total": 6.9189, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.069842 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067044 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.039677 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.038907 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.029557 } ], "others_margin": 0.03461 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goals": 0.1904, "goal_rate": 0.1904, "shots_on_target": 0.412, "total_shots": 1.3604, "expected_assists": 0.1117, "key_pass": 1.5115, "rating": 6.9189, "minutes": 30.36, "total_pass": 19.4593, "accurate_pass": 14.9933, "duels_won": 1.3032, "total_long_balls": 1.4627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1765, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4616, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6906, "crosses_total": 1.8428, "crosses_accurate": 0.7024, "touches": 28.1071, "possession_lost": 8.4956, "dispossessed": 0.5239, "duels_lost": 2.3355, "aerial_lost": 0.3445, "total_contest": 1.0088, "won_contest": 0.4936, "ball_recovery": 2.0331, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2759, "fouls_drawn": 0.4102, "assists": 0.3407, "assist_rate": 0.3407, "interceptions": 0.155, "tackles_won": 0.3007, "tackles": 0.3007, "clearances": 0.41, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4228, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1794, "offsides": 0.1364, "ball_carries": 12.1119, "total_progression": 58.1192, "progressive_carries": 1.5735, "shots_off_target": 0.9483 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0109, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0091)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goals": 0.1938, "goal_rate": 0.1938, "shots_on_target": 0.4133, "total_shots": 1.3565, "expected_assists": 0.1117, "key_pass": 1.5115, "rating": 6.9189, "minutes": 30.36, "total_pass": 19.4593, "accurate_pass": 14.9933, "duels_won": 1.3032, "total_long_balls": 1.4627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1765, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4616, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6906, "crosses_total": 1.8329, "crosses_accurate": 0.7024, "touches": 28.1071, "possession_lost": 8.4956, "dispossessed": 0.5239, "duels_lost": 2.3355, "aerial_lost": 0.3445, "total_contest": 1.0088, "won_contest": 0.4936, "ball_recovery": 2.0331, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2711, "fouls_drawn": 0.4133, "assists": 0.3393, "assist_rate": 0.3393, "interceptions": 0.1553, "tackles_won": 0.298, "tackles": 0.3007, "clearances": 0.41, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4228, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1794, "offsides": 0.1386, "ball_carries": 12.1119, "total_progression": 58.1192, "progressive_carries": 1.5735, "shots_off_target": 0.9483 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0091, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3373, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.8428, "after": 1.8329 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.4 to 34.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goals": 0.2174, "goal_rate": 0.2174, "shots_on_target": 0.4637, "total_shots": 1.5276, "expected_assists": 0.1253, "key_pass": 1.6957, "rating": 6.9189, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.8308, "accurate_pass": 16.8205, "duels_won": 1.462, "total_long_balls": 1.641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.198, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9935, "crosses_total": 2.0563, "crosses_accurate": 0.788, "touches": 31.5325, "possession_lost": 9.531, "dispossessed": 0.5239, "duels_lost": 2.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3445, "total_contest": 1.1317, "won_contest": 0.5538, "ball_recovery": 2.2809, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.426, "fouls_drawn": 0.4637, "assists": 0.3807, "assist_rate": 0.3807, "interceptions": 0.1742, "tackles_won": 0.3343, "tackles": 0.3373, "clearances": 0.46, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4743, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2013, "offsides": 0.1386, "ball_carries": 13.588, "total_progression": 65.2022, "progressive_carries": 1.7653, "shots_off_target": 1.0639, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 34.06, "projection_minutes": 30.36, "minutes_scale": 1.1219, "appearance_probability": 0.621 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goals": 0.2174, "goal_rate": 0.2174, "shots_on_target": 0.4637, "total_shots": 1.5276, "expected_assists": 0.1253, "key_pass": 1.6957, "rating": 6.9189, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.8308, "accurate_pass": 16.8205, "duels_won": 1.462, "total_long_balls": 1.641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.198, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9935, "crosses_total": 2.0563, "crosses_accurate": 0.788, "touches": 31.5325, "possession_lost": 9.531, "dispossessed": 0.5239, "duels_lost": 2.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3445, "total_contest": 1.1317, "won_contest": 0.5538, "ball_recovery": 2.2809, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.426, "fouls_drawn": 0.4637, "assists": 0.3807, "assist_rate": 0.3807, "interceptions": 0.1742, "tackles_won": 0.3343, "tackles": 0.3373, "clearances": 0.46, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4743, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2013, "offsides": 0.1386, "ball_carries": 13.588, "total_progression": 65.2022, "progressive_carries": 1.7653, "shots_off_target": 1.0639, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.2174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4637, "total_shots": 1.5276, "expected_assists": 0.1253, "key_pass": 1.6957, "rating": 6.9189, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.8308, "accurate_pass": 16.8205, "duels_won": 1.462, "total_long_balls": 1.641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.198, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9935, "crosses_total": 2.0563, "crosses_accurate": 0.788, "touches": 31.5325, "possession_lost": 9.531, "dispossessed": 0.5239, "duels_lost": 2.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3445, "total_contest": 1.1317, "won_contest": 0.5538, "ball_recovery": 2.2809, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.426, "fouls_drawn": 0.4637, "assist_rate": 0.3807, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1742, "tackles_won": 0.3343, "tackles": 0.3373, "clearances": 0.46, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4743, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2013, "offsides": 0.1386, "ball_carries": 13.588, "total_progression": 65.2022, "progressive_carries": 1.7653, "shots_off_target": 1.0639, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.0663, xG scale 1.4264, xA scale 1.1809, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.2174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4637, "total_shots": 1.5276, "expected_assists": 0.0919, "key_pass": 1.6957, "rating": 6.9189, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.8308, "accurate_pass": 16.8205, "duels_won": 1.462, "total_long_balls": 1.641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.198, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9935, "crosses_total": 2.0563, "crosses_accurate": 0.788, "touches": 31.5325, "possession_lost": 9.531, "dispossessed": 0.5239, "duels_lost": 2.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3445, "total_contest": 1.1317, "won_contest": 0.5538, "ball_recovery": 2.2809, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.426, "fouls_drawn": 0.4637, "assist_rate": 0.3807, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1742, "tackles_won": 0.3343, "tackles": 0.3373, "clearances": 0.46, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4743, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1783, "offsides": 0.1386, "ball_carries": 13.588, "total_progression": 65.2022, "progressive_carries": 1.7653, "shots_off_target": 1.0639, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.521, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0663, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0304, "team_expected_assists": 1.2168, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4264, "xa_scale": 1.1809, "opponent_lambda": 2.119, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.621 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0835, "after": 0.074 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1253, "after": 0.0919 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.2174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4637, "total_shots": 1.5276, "expected_assists": 0.0919, "key_pass": 1.6957, "rating": 6.9189, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.8308, "accurate_pass": 16.8205, "duels_won": 1.462, "total_long_balls": 1.641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.198, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9935, "crosses_total": 2.0563, "crosses_accurate": 0.788, "touches": 31.5325, "possession_lost": 9.531, "dispossessed": 0.5239, "duels_lost": 2.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3445, "total_contest": 1.1317, "won_contest": 0.5538, "ball_recovery": 2.2809, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.426, "fouls_drawn": 0.4637, "assist_rate": 0.3807, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1742, "tackles_won": 0.3343, "tackles": 0.3373, "clearances": 0.46, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4743, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1783, "offsides": 0.1386, "ball_carries": 13.588, "total_progression": 65.2022, "progressive_carries": 1.7653, "shots_off_target": 1.0639, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.621, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 244, "fifa_rank": 312.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.2174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4637, "total_shots": 1.5276, "expected_assists": 0.0919, "key_pass": 1.6957, "rating": 6.9189, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.8308, "accurate_pass": 16.8205, "duels_won": 1.462, "total_long_balls": 1.641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.198, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9935, "crosses_total": 2.0563, "crosses_accurate": 0.788, "touches": 31.5325, "possession_lost": 9.531, "dispossessed": 0.5239, "duels_lost": 2.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3445, "total_contest": 1.1317, "won_contest": 0.5538, "ball_recovery": 2.2809, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.426, "fouls_drawn": 0.4637, "assist_rate": 0.3807, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1742, "tackles_won": 0.3343, "tackles": 0.3373, "clearances": 0.46, "blocks": 0.0, 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"eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.267, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.267, "runner_up": "Giuliano Simeone", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2163 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.2174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4637, "total_shots": 1.5276, "expected_assists": 0.0919, "key_pass": 1.6957, "rating": 6.9189, "minutes": 34.06, "total_pass": 21.8308, "accurate_pass": 16.8205, "duels_won": 1.462, "total_long_balls": 1.641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.198, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9935, "crosses_total": 2.0563, "crosses_accurate": 0.788, "touches": 31.5325, "possession_lost": 9.531, "dispossessed": 0.5239, "duels_lost": 2.6201, "aerial_lost": 0.3445, "total_contest": 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"importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0093, "total": 0.0512, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.47273 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.118377 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.114355 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.113309 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.076104 } ], "others_margin": 0.200396 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.778677225112915, "model_output": 0.7787, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2589 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0633 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0445 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0455 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0329 } ], "others": 0.1597, "total": 0.7787, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.468828 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.136429 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.085876 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.080883 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.054596 } ], "others_margin": 0.229471 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.873805522918701, "model_output": 6.8738, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0161 } ], "others": 0.1072, "total": 6.8738, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087606 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.029346 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.019288 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.016193 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.016133 } ], "others_margin": 0.107118 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0143, quality 0.895)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1323, "goals": 0.1472, "goal_rate": 0.1472, "shots_on_target": 0.4843, "total_shots": 1.2217, "expected_assists": 0.0519, "key_pass": 0.7898, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 33.85, "total_pass": 18.026, "accurate_pass": 16.2914, "duels_won": 2.6211, "total_long_balls": 0.8698, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8028, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.541, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.94, "crosses_total": 0.7347, "crosses_accurate": 0.1945, "touches": 27.7161, "possession_lost": 5.1494, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.9478, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 2.4395, "won_contest": 1.6564, "ball_recovery": 1.0437, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.3435, "fouls_drawn": 0.5127, "assists": 0.1774, "assist_rate": 0.1774, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1237, "tackles": 0.2746, "clearances": 0.0349, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0693, "big_chances_missed": 0.5415, "xgot": 0.1427, "offsides": 0.0918, "ball_carries": 12.4008, "total_progression": 44.1022, "progressive_carries": 1.9162, "shots_off_target": 0.7374 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 107000000, "quality_factor": 0.8953, "boost_factor": 1.0143, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0016)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1323, "goals": 0.147, "goal_rate": 0.147, "shots_on_target": 0.4835, "total_shots": 1.2219, "expected_assists": 0.0519, "key_pass": 0.7898, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 33.85, "total_pass": 18.026, "accurate_pass": 16.2914, "duels_won": 2.6211, "total_long_balls": 0.8698, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8028, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.541, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.94, "crosses_total": 0.7335, "crosses_accurate": 0.1945, "touches": 27.7161, "possession_lost": 5.1494, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.9478, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 2.4395, "won_contest": 1.6564, "ball_recovery": 1.0437, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.343, "fouls_drawn": 0.5119, "assists": 0.1771, "assist_rate": 0.1771, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1235, "tackles": 0.2746, "clearances": 0.0349, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0693, "big_chances_missed": 0.5415, "xgot": 0.1427, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 12.4008, "total_progression": 44.1022, "progressive_carries": 1.9162, "shots_off_target": 0.7374 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0016, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3761, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 33.9 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goals": 0.1127, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "shots_on_target": 0.3707, "total_shots": 0.9367, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "key_pass": 0.6055, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.819, "accurate_pass": 12.4893, "duels_won": 2.0094, "total_long_balls": 0.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.92, "crosses_total": 0.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.1491, "touches": 21.2476, "possession_lost": 3.9476, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.4932, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 1.8702, "won_contest": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.8001, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.2629, "fouls_drawn": 0.3924, "assists": 0.1358, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0947, "tackles": 0.2105, "clearances": 0.0268, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0531, "big_chances_missed": 0.4151, "xgot": 0.1094, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 9.5067, "total_progression": 33.8095, "progressive_carries": 1.469, "shots_off_target": 0.5653, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.95, "projection_minutes": 33.85, "minutes_scale": 0.7666, "appearance_probability": 0.756 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goals": 0.1127, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "shots_on_target": 0.3707, "total_shots": 0.9367, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "key_pass": 0.6055, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.819, "accurate_pass": 12.4893, "duels_won": 2.0094, "total_long_balls": 0.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.92, "crosses_total": 0.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.1491, "touches": 21.2476, "possession_lost": 3.9476, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.4932, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 1.8702, "won_contest": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.8001, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.2629, "fouls_drawn": 0.3924, "assists": 0.1358, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0947, "tackles": 0.2105, "clearances": 0.0268, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0531, "big_chances_missed": 0.4151, "xgot": 0.1094, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 9.5067, "total_progression": 33.8095, "progressive_carries": 1.469, "shots_off_target": 0.5653, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3707, "total_shots": 0.9367, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "key_pass": 0.6055, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.819, "accurate_pass": 12.4893, "duels_won": 2.0094, "total_long_balls": 0.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.92, "crosses_total": 0.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.1491, "touches": 21.2476, "possession_lost": 3.9476, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.4932, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 1.8702, "won_contest": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.8001, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.2629, "fouls_drawn": 0.3924, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0947, "tackles": 0.2105, "clearances": 0.0268, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0531, "big_chances_missed": 0.4151, "xgot": 0.1094, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 9.5067, "total_progression": 33.8095, "progressive_carries": 1.469, "shots_off_target": 0.5653, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.0663, xG scale 1.4264, xA scale 1.1809, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1093, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3707, "total_shots": 0.9367, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "key_pass": 0.6055, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.819, "accurate_pass": 12.4893, "duels_won": 2.0094, "total_long_balls": 0.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.92, "crosses_total": 0.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.1491, "touches": 21.2476, "possession_lost": 3.9476, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.4932, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 1.8702, "won_contest": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.8001, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.2629, "fouls_drawn": 0.3924, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0947, "tackles": 0.2105, "clearances": 0.0268, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0531, "big_chances_missed": 0.4151, "xgot": 0.118, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 9.5067, "total_progression": 33.8095, "progressive_carries": 1.469, "shots_off_target": 0.5653, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0746, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.521, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0663, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0304, "team_expected_assists": 1.2168, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4264, "xa_scale": 1.1809, "opponent_lambda": 2.119, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.756 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1014, "after": 0.1093 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1093, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3707, "total_shots": 0.9367, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "key_pass": 0.6055, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.819, "accurate_pass": 12.4893, "duels_won": 2.0094, "total_long_balls": 0.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.92, "crosses_total": 0.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.1491, "touches": 21.2476, "possession_lost": 3.9476, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.4932, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 1.8702, "won_contest": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.8001, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.2629, "fouls_drawn": 0.3924, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0947, "tackles": 0.2105, "clearances": 0.0268, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0531, "big_chances_missed": 0.4151, "xgot": 0.118, "offsides": 0.0917, "ball_carries": 9.5067, "total_progression": 33.8095, "progressive_carries": 1.469, "shots_off_target": 0.5653, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0746, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 66, "fifa_rank": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1093, "goal_rate": 0.1127, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3707, "total_shots": 0.9367, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "key_pass": 0.6055, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.819, "accurate_pass": 12.4893, "duels_won": 2.0094, "total_long_balls": 0.6668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6154, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1474, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.92, "crosses_total": 0.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.1491, "touches": 21.2476, "possession_lost": 3.9476, "dispossessed": 0.7129, "duels_lost": 1.4932, "aerial_lost": 0.1892, "total_contest": 1.8702, "won_contest": 1.2698, "ball_recovery": 0.8001, "challenges_lost": 0.0699, "fouls": 0.2629, "fouls_drawn": 0.3924, "assist_rate": 0.1358, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0947, "tackles": 0.2105, "clearances": 0.0268, 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-0.1501 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0074 } ], "others": -0.0282, "total": 0.1712, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.639023 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.074114 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.067641 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.067472 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.036626 } ], "others_margin": -0.152389 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5850830078125, "model_output": 0.5851, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4499 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0204 } ], "others": -0.0063, "total": 0.5851, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.449889 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.036839 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.029645 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.028822 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.020392 } ], "others_margin": -0.006372 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.702051162719727, "model_output": 6.7021, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0751 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0264 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0139, "total": 6.7021, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075141 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03495 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.026371 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010426 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.005437 } ], "others_margin": -0.013903 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2885, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "assists": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0372, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goals": 0.048, "goal_rate": 0.048, "shots_on_target": 0.1722, "total_shots": 0.5886, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 20.65, "total_pass": 13.8717, "accurate_pass": 11.3439, "duels_won": 1.6543, "total_long_balls": 0.7046, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2983, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1382, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0785, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7335, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2654, "crosses_total": 0.3336, "crosses_accurate": 0.1543, "touches": 18.8339, "possession_lost": 4.1153, "dispossessed": 0.3603, "duels_lost": 2.3342, "aerial_won": 0.4112, "aerial_lost": 0.7027, "interceptions": 0.0468, "tackles_won": 0.4547, "tackles": 0.4885, "clearances": 0.1054, "total_contest": 0.6231, "won_contest": 0.1877, "challenges_lost": 0.2561, "fouls": 0.6135, "fouls_drawn": 0.5669, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0026, "ball_carries": 5.9092, "total_progression": 23.6464, "progressive_carries": 0.4552, "shots_off_target": 0.4164 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0076)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2885, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "assists": 0.0369, "assist_rate": 0.0369, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goals": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.0476, "shots_on_target": 0.1753, "total_shots": 0.5915, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 20.65, "total_pass": 13.8717, "accurate_pass": 11.3439, "duels_won": 1.6543, "total_long_balls": 0.7046, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2983, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1382, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0785, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7335, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2654, "crosses_total": 0.3325, "crosses_accurate": 0.1543, "touches": 18.8339, "possession_lost": 4.1153, "dispossessed": 0.3603, "duels_lost": 2.3342, "aerial_won": 0.4112, "aerial_lost": 0.7027, "interceptions": 0.0464, "tackles_won": 0.4541, "tackles": 0.4885, "clearances": 0.1054, "total_contest": 0.6231, "won_contest": 0.1877, "challenges_lost": 0.2561, "fouls": 0.6103, "fouls_drawn": 0.564, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0026, "ball_carries": 5.9092, "total_progression": 23.6464, "progressive_carries": 0.4552, "shots_off_target": 0.4164 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0076, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2294, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.6 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.45)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1893, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assists": 0.0242, "assist_rate": 0.0242, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0312, "shots_on_target": 0.115, "total_shots": 0.3883, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 13.55, "total_pass": 9.1023, "accurate_pass": 7.4436, "duels_won": 1.0855, "total_long_balls": 0.4623, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1957, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3324, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0745, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1112, "crosses_total": 0.2182, "crosses_accurate": 0.1012, "touches": 12.3583, "possession_lost": 2.7004, "dispossessed": 0.3603, "duels_lost": 1.5316, "aerial_won": 0.2698, "aerial_lost": 0.7027, "interceptions": 0.0304, "tackles_won": 0.298, "tackles": 0.3205, "clearances": 0.0692, "total_contest": 0.4089, "won_contest": 0.1232, "challenges_lost": 0.2561, "fouls": 0.4005, "fouls_drawn": 0.3701, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "ball_carries": 3.8775, "total_progression": 15.5162, "progressive_carries": 0.2987, "shots_off_target": 0.2732, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.452, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.55 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.55, "projection_minutes": 20.65, "minutes_scale": 0.6562, "appearance_probability": 0.452 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.1893, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assists": 0.0242, "assist_rate": 0.0242, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0312, "shots_on_target": 0.115, "total_shots": 0.3883, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 13.55, "total_pass": 9.1023, "accurate_pass": 7.4436, "duels_won": 1.0855, "total_long_balls": 0.4623, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1957, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3324, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0745, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.698, "goals_prevented": 0.0279, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 86.64, "total_pass": 21.8387, "accurate_pass": 19.7484, "total_long_balls": 3.5835, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7227, "touches": 32.8262, "clearances": 1.649, "ball_recovery": 8.366, "high_claims": 0.629, "punches": 0.2328, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "sweeper_actions": 2.5056, "sweeper_accurate": 2.5056, "saves_inside_box": 1.0998, "possession_lost": 2.2531, "duels_won": 0.2409, "duels_lost": 0.0699, "total_contest": 0.0006, "won_contest": 0.0006, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0726, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2646, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5854, "shots_faced": 14.4, "expected_saves": 3.52, "high_pressure_saves": 1.22, "opponent_faced": "Ademola Lookman, Giuliano Simeone", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 2.4716, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.7467, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7467, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7103 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7103, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7103, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3186 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.698, "goals_prevented": 0.0279, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 86.64, "total_pass": 21.8387, "accurate_pass": 19.7484, "total_long_balls": 3.5835, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7227, "touches": 32.8262, "clearances": 1.649, "ball_recovery": 8.366, "high_claims": 0.629, "punches": 0.2328, "aerial_won": 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"weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.4437, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4437, "runner_up": "Fermín López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1931 } ] } } ] }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "player_id": 1402913, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 184, "market_value": 94000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.1988, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 98, "accurate_pass": 94, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 58, "accurate_own_half_passes": 56, "total_opp_half_passes": 41, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 38, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 109, "possession_lost": 5.2018, "dispossessed": 0.0412, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, 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"clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 97, "accurate_pass": 90, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 114, "accurate_pass": 109, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.891)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1901, "tackles": 1.5136, "tackles_won": 0.9014, "clearances": 4.4804, "aerial_won": 2.7054, "total_shots": 0.3374, "rating": 7.1988, "minutes": 87.07, "total_pass": 98.3014, "accurate_pass": 93.8808, "duels_won": 4.7954, "total_long_balls": 4.1545, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5085, "total_own_half_passes": 57.7584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 56.0421, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.543, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37.8388, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 108.8791, "possession_lost": 5.2018, "dispossessed": 0.0412, "duels_lost": 2.7067, "aerial_lost": 1.0813, "total_contest": 0.13, "won_contest": 0.0006, "ball_recovery": 3.0295, "challenges_lost": 0.5355, "fouls": 0.9286, "fouls_drawn": 0.2753, "blocks": 0.3231, "goals": 0.007, 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"contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0191 } ], "others": 0.0226, "total": 0.8699, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.246352 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048698 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.029468 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.0224 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.019053 } ], "others_margin": 0.022711 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.90207576751709, "model_output": 6.9021, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "rating", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0160, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0828, "tackles": 2.0602, "tackles_won": 1.2444, "clearances": 2.2247, "aerial_won": 0.9223, "total_shots": 0.8839, "rating": 6.9021, "minutes": 79.44, "total_pass": 49.2171, "accurate_pass": 44.5347, "duels_won": 5.8756, "total_long_balls": 2.2127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7082, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.896, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.8084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6387, "crosses_total": 0.4689, "crosses_accurate": 0.0748, "touches": 70.9401, "possession_lost": 8.2389, "dispossessed": 0.5918, "duels_lost": 3.8164, "aerial_lost": 0.7753, "total_contest": 1.4915, "won_contest": 0.8511, "ball_recovery": 4.7235, "challenges_lost": 0.4777, "fouls": 1.6331, "fouls_drawn": 1.004, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1218, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "assists": 0.1516, "assist_rate": 0.1516, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "shots_on_target": 0.1966, "big_chances_created": 0.2264, "xgot": 0.0767, "ball_carries": 15.4595, "total_progression": 61.2143, "progressive_carries": 1.6723, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.6872 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.016, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 12, "history_shrink": 0.2941, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0382)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0976, "tackles": 2.0602, "tackles_won": 1.2418, "clearances": 2.2247, "aerial_won": 0.9223, "total_shots": 0.8727, "rating": 6.9021, "minutes": 79.44, "total_pass": 49.2171, "accurate_pass": 44.5347, "duels_won": 5.8756, "total_long_balls": 2.2127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7082, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.896, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.8084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6387, "crosses_total": 0.496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0748, "touches": 70.9401, "possession_lost": 8.2389, "dispossessed": 0.5918, "duels_lost": 3.8164, "aerial_lost": 0.7753, "total_contest": 1.4915, "won_contest": 0.8511, "ball_recovery": 4.7235, "challenges_lost": 0.4777, "fouls": 1.6044, "fouls_drawn": 0.9769, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1171, "goal_rate": 0.1171, "assists": 0.1683, "assist_rate": 0.1683, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "shots_on_target": 0.2002, "big_chances_created": 0.2264, "xgot": 0.0767, "ball_carries": 15.4595, "total_progression": 61.2143, "progressive_carries": 1.6723, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.6872 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0382, "history_matches": 12, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8827, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.6331, "after": 1.6044 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.4689, "after": 0.496 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.004, "after": 0.9769 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1516, "after": 0.1683 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0828, "after": 1.0976 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8839, "after": 0.8727 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0976, "tackles": 2.0602, "tackles_won": 1.2418, "clearances": 2.2247, "aerial_won": 0.9223, "total_shots": 0.8874, "rating": 6.9021, "minutes": 79.44, "total_pass": 49.2171, "accurate_pass": 44.5347, "duels_won": 5.8756, "total_long_balls": 2.2127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7082, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.896, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.8084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6387, "crosses_total": 0.496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0748, "touches": 70.9401, "possession_lost": 8.2389, "dispossessed": 0.5918, "duels_lost": 3.8164, "aerial_lost": 0.7753, "total_contest": 1.4915, "won_contest": 0.8511, "ball_recovery": 4.7235, "challenges_lost": 0.4777, "fouls": 1.6044, "fouls_drawn": 0.9769, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1171, "goal_rate": 0.1171, "assists": 0.1683, "assist_rate": 0.1683, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "shots_on_target": 0.2002, "big_chances_created": 0.2264, "xgot": 0.0767, "ball_carries": 15.4595, "total_progression": 61.2143, "progressive_carries": 1.6723, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.6872 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0976, "tackles": 2.0602, "tackles_won": 1.2418, "clearances": 2.2247, "aerial_won": 0.9223, "total_shots": 0.8874, "rating": 6.9021, "minutes": 79.44, "total_pass": 49.2171, "accurate_pass": 44.5347, "duels_won": 5.8756, "total_long_balls": 2.2127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7082, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.896, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.8084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6387, "crosses_total": 0.496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0748, "touches": 70.9401, "possession_lost": 8.2389, "dispossessed": 0.5918, "duels_lost": 3.8164, "aerial_lost": 0.7753, "total_contest": 1.4915, "won_contest": 0.8511, "ball_recovery": 4.7235, "challenges_lost": 0.4777, "fouls": 1.6044, "fouls_drawn": 0.9769, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1171, "goal_rate": 0.1171, "assists": 0.1683, "assist_rate": 0.1683, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "shots_on_target": 0.2002, "big_chances_created": 0.2264, "xgot": 0.0767, "ball_carries": 15.4595, "total_progression": 61.2143, "progressive_carries": 1.6723, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.6872, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647, "opponent_faced": "Obed Vargas", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Obed Vargas", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0976, "tackles": 2.0602, "tackles_won": 1.2418, "clearances": 2.2247, "aerial_won": 0.9223, "total_shots": 0.8874, "rating": 6.9021, "minutes": 79.44, "total_pass": 49.2171, "accurate_pass": 44.5347, "duels_won": 5.8756, "total_long_balls": 2.2127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7082, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.896, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.8084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6387, "crosses_total": 0.496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0748, "touches": 70.9401, "possession_lost": 8.2389, "dispossessed": 0.5918, "duels_lost": 3.8164, "aerial_lost": 0.7753, "total_contest": 1.4915, "won_contest": 0.8511, "ball_recovery": 4.7235, "challenges_lost": 0.4777, "fouls": 1.6044, "fouls_drawn": 0.9769, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.1171, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1683, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "shots_on_target": 0.2002, "big_chances_created": 0.2264, "xgot": 0.0767, "ball_carries": 15.4595, "total_progression": 61.2143, "progressive_carries": 1.6723, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.6872, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647, "opponent_faced": "Obed Vargas", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.12 (squad xG sum 2.2093, xG scale 0.9591, xA scale 0.9591, team xA 1.45 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0976, "tackles": 2.0602, "tackles_won": 1.2418, "clearances": 2.2247, "aerial_won": 0.9223, "total_shots": 0.8874, "rating": 6.9021, "minutes": 79.44, "total_pass": 49.2171, "accurate_pass": 44.5347, "duels_won": 5.8756, "total_long_balls": 2.2127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7082, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.896, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.8084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6387, "crosses_total": 0.496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0748, "touches": 70.9401, "possession_lost": 8.2389, "dispossessed": 0.5918, "duels_lost": 3.8164, "aerial_lost": 0.7753, "total_contest": 1.4915, "won_contest": 0.8511, "ball_recovery": 4.7235, "challenges_lost": 0.4777, "fouls": 1.6044, "fouls_drawn": 0.9769, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.1171, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1683, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.2002, "big_chances_created": 0.2264, "xgot": 0.0736, "ball_carries": 15.4595, "total_progression": 61.2143, "progressive_carries": 1.6723, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.6872, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647, "opponent_faced": "Obed Vargas", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.119, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2093, "squad_xa_sum": 1.5111, "team_expected_assists": 1.4494, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.684, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9591, "xa_scale": 0.9591, "opponent_lambda": 1.521, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0976, "tackles": 2.0602, "tackles_won": 1.2418, "clearances": 2.2247, "aerial_won": 0.9223, "total_shots": 0.8874, "rating": 6.9021, "minutes": 79.44, "total_pass": 49.2171, "accurate_pass": 44.5347, "duels_won": 5.8756, "total_long_balls": 2.2127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7082, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.896, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.8084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6387, "crosses_total": 0.496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0748, "touches": 70.9401, "possession_lost": 8.2389, "dispossessed": 0.5918, "duels_lost": 3.8164, "aerial_lost": 0.7753, "total_contest": 1.4915, "won_contest": 0.8511, "ball_recovery": 4.7235, "challenges_lost": 0.4777, "fouls": 1.6044, "fouls_drawn": 0.9769, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.1171, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1683, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "expected_assists": 0.0667, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0976, "tackles": 2.0602, "tackles_won": 1.2418, "clearances": 2.2247, "aerial_won": 0.9223, "total_shots": 0.8874, "rating": 6.9021, "minutes": 79.44, "total_pass": 49.2171, "accurate_pass": 44.5347, "duels_won": 5.8756, "total_long_balls": 2.2127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7082, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.896, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.8084, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6387, "crosses_total": 0.496, "crosses_accurate": 0.0748, "touches": 70.9401, "possession_lost": 8.2389, "dispossessed": 0.5918, "duels_lost": 3.8164, "aerial_lost": 0.7753, "total_contest": 1.4915, "won_contest": 0.8511, "ball_recovery": 4.7235, "challenges_lost": 0.4777, "fouls": 1.6044, "fouls_drawn": 0.9769, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.1171, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1683, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.2002, "big_chances_created": 0.2264, "xgot": 0.0736, "ball_carries": 15.4595, "total_progression": 61.2143, "progressive_carries": 1.6723, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.6872, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647, "opponent_faced": "Obed Vargas", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0361, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0361, "goal_rate": 0.1171, "scorer_weight": 0.046, "squad_weight_total": 2.4716, "weight_share": 0.0186, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.7467, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7467, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7103 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7103, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7103, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3186 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0976, "tackles": 2.0602, "tackles_won": 1.2418, "clearances": 2.2247, "aerial_won": 0.9223, "total_shots": 0.8874, "rating": 6.9021, "minutes": 79.44, "total_pass": 49.2171, "accurate_pass": 44.5347, "duels_won": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0563 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.056, "total": 0.5214, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056252 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.020485 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019365 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.013946 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.01386 } ], "others_margin": -0.056064 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.089508056640625, "model_output": 7.0895, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1307 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0756 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.025 } ], "others": 0.0029, "total": 7.0895, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.130663 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.075564 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.028268 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028153 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.024971 } ], "others_margin": 0.003109 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0094, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8978, "tackles": 1.5888, "tackles_won": 0.8947, "clearances": 2.473, "aerial_won": 0.9941, "total_shots": 0.5263, "rating": 7.0895, "minutes": 81.67, "total_pass": 82.9814, "accurate_pass": 77.1396, "duels_won": 3.4673, "total_long_balls": 2.7561, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2704, "total_own_half_passes": 36.8653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6628, "total_opp_half_passes": 46.1161, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 42.4768, "crosses_total": 0.3258, "crosses_accurate": 0.0059, "touches": 98.2777, "possession_lost": 7.9358, "dispossessed": 0.0968, "duels_lost": 2.6518, "aerial_lost": 1.026, "total_contest": 0.7103, "won_contest": 0.1882, "ball_recovery": 4.5928, "challenges_lost": 0.3886, "fouls": 0.6231, "fouls_drawn": 0.3692, "blocks": 0.2814, "goals": 0.0007, 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7.9358, "dispossessed": 0.0968, "duels_lost": 2.6518, "aerial_lost": 1.026, "total_contest": 0.7103, "won_contest": 0.1882, "ball_recovery": 4.5928, "challenges_lost": 0.3886, "fouls": 0.6218, "fouls_drawn": 0.366, "blocks": 0.2814, "goals": 0.0007, "goal_rate": 0.0007, "assists": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0127, "expected_goals": 0.028, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.1868, "big_chances_created": 0.0999, "xgot": 0.0143, "ball_carries": 20.9349, "total_progression": 77.5018, "progressive_carries": 0.5801, "key_pass": 0.7088, "shots_off_target": 0.3378, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.68, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9025, "tackles": 1.5888, "tackles_won": 0.9078, "clearances": 2.473, "aerial_won": 0.9941, "total_shots": 0.5302, "rating": 7.0895, "minutes": 81.67, "total_pass": 82.9814, "accurate_pass": 77.1396, "duels_won": 3.4673, "total_long_balls": 2.7561, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2704, "total_own_half_passes": 36.8653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6628, "total_opp_half_passes": 46.1161, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 42.4768, "crosses_total": 0.3271, "crosses_accurate": 0.0059, "touches": 98.2777, "possession_lost": 7.9358, "dispossessed": 0.0968, "duels_lost": 2.6518, "aerial_lost": 1.026, "total_contest": 0.7103, "won_contest": 0.1882, "ball_recovery": 4.5928, "challenges_lost": 0.3886, "fouls": 0.6218, "fouls_drawn": 0.366, "blocks": 0.2814, "goal_rate": 0.0007, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0127, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.1868, "big_chances_created": 0.0999, "xgot": 0.0143, "ball_carries": 20.9349, "total_progression": 77.5018, "progressive_carries": 0.5801, "key_pass": 0.7088, "shots_off_target": 0.3378, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.68, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player 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"goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0127, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "expected_assists": 0.0709, "shots_on_target": 0.1868, "big_chances_created": 0.0999, "xgot": 0.0137, "ball_carries": 20.9349, "total_progression": 77.5018, "progressive_carries": 0.5801, "key_pass": 0.7088, "shots_off_target": 0.3378, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.68, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.119, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2093, "squad_xa_sum": 1.5111, "team_expected_assists": 1.4494, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.684, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9025, "tackles": 1.5888, "tackles_won": 0.9078, "clearances": 2.473, "aerial_won": 0.9941, "total_shots": 0.5302, "rating": 7.0895, "minutes": 81.67, "total_pass": 82.9814, "accurate_pass": 77.1396, "duels_won": 3.4673, "total_long_balls": 2.7561, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2704, "total_own_half_passes": 36.8653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6628, "total_opp_half_passes": 46.1161, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 42.4768, "crosses_total": 0.3271, "crosses_accurate": 0.0059, "touches": 98.2777, "possession_lost": 7.9358, "dispossessed": 0.0968, "duels_lost": 2.6518, "aerial_lost": 1.026, "total_contest": 0.7103, "won_contest": 0.1882, "ball_recovery": 4.5928, "challenges_lost": 0.3886, "fouls": 0.6218, "fouls_drawn": 0.366, "blocks": 0.2814, "goal_rate": 0.0007, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0127, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "expected_assists": 0.0709, 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"model_output": 0.3799, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1154 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0448, "total": 0.3799, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.11539 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048883 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024045 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021062 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.012887 } ], "others_margin": -0.044775 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.120031356811523, "model_output": 7.12, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0815 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0717 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0594 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0256 } ], "others": 0.0492, "total": 7.12, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.081508 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.071716 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.059447 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.033831 }, { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8018, "tackles": 0.9898, "tackles_won": 0.6185, "clearances": 4.6119, "aerial_won": 1.634, "total_shots": 0.383, "rating": 7.12, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 76.2767, "accurate_pass": 70.3299, "duels_won": 2.3035, "total_long_balls": 3.4339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2982, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6037, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.8539, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6731, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.476, "crosses_total": 0.0966, "crosses_accurate": 0.0171, "touches": 86.5957, "possession_lost": 6.5259, "dispossessed": 0.0365, "duels_lost": 2.0816, "aerial_lost": 0.9058, "total_contest": 0.1324, "won_contest": 0.1287, "ball_recovery": 2.2386, "challenges_lost": 0.2732, "fouls": 0.9037, "fouls_drawn": 0.2288, "blocks": 0.4092, "goals": 0.0, 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unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.12 (squad xG sum 2.2093, xG scale 0.9591, xA scale 0.9591, team xA 1.45 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8067, "tackles": 0.9898, "tackles_won": 0.6169, "clearances": 4.6119, "aerial_won": 1.634, "total_shots": 0.3836, "rating": 7.12, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 76.2767, "accurate_pass": 70.3299, "duels_won": 2.3035, "total_long_balls": 3.4339, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2982, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6037, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.8539, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6731, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.476, "crosses_total": 0.0957, "crosses_accurate": 0.0171, "touches": 86.5957, "possession_lost": 6.5259, "dispossessed": 0.0365, "duels_lost": 2.0816, "aerial_lost": 0.9058, "total_contest": 0.1324, "won_contest": 0.1287, "ball_recovery": 2.2386, "challenges_lost": 0.2732, "fouls": 0.8995, "fouls_drawn": 0.2308, "blocks": 0.4092, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.4608, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6, "combined_rank_score": 12.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": 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0.773, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", 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-0.2869 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1363 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.051 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0459 } ], "others": -0.1472, "total": 0.7286, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.286898 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136311 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.050979 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.046645 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.045871 } ], "others_margin": -0.147302 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.268011093139648, "model_output": 7.268, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1152 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0744 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0402 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.028 } ], "others": 0.1209, "total": 7.268, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.115218 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.074355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.040181 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.031922 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.027968 } ], "others_margin": 0.120964 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2335, "expected_assists": 0.1897, "assists": 0.1597, "assist_rate": 0.1597, "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "shots_on_target": 0.1983, "total_shots": 0.7382, "rating": 7.268, "minutes": 77.23, "total_pass": 72.4646, "accurate_pass": 66.2455, "duels_won": 3.307, "total_long_balls": 3.7521, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4857, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7753, "total_opp_half_passes": 48.2924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 43.4702, "crosses_total": 0.7627, "crosses_accurate": 0.2699, "touches": 84.6179, "possession_lost": 9.727, "dispossessed": 0.8204, "duels_lost": 3.6134, "aerial_won": 0.1882, "aerial_lost": 0.1353, "interceptions": 0.5149, "tackles_won": 0.7808, "tackles": 1.2453, "clearances": 0.832, "total_contest": 1.5155, "won_contest": 0.7354, "challenges_lost": 1.4775, "fouls": 0.4001, "fouls_drawn": 1.138, "blocks": 0.011, "big_chances_created": 0.0765, "big_chances_missed": 0.019, "xgot": 0.0409, "ball_carries": 29.5106, "total_progression": 96.9529, "progressive_carries": 1.7014, "shots_off_target": 0.5399 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 164000000, "quality_factor": 0.8997, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2335, "expected_assists": 0.1897, "assists": 0.1621, "assist_rate": 0.1621, "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goals": 0.0874, "goal_rate": 0.0874, "shots_on_target": 0.1961, "total_shots": 0.7383, "rating": 7.268, "minutes": 77.23, "total_pass": 72.4646, "accurate_pass": 66.2455, "duels_won": 3.307, "total_long_balls": 3.7521, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4857, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7753, "total_opp_half_passes": 48.2924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 43.4702, "crosses_total": 0.7666, "crosses_accurate": 0.2699, "touches": 84.6179, "possession_lost": 9.727, "dispossessed": 0.8204, "duels_lost": 3.6134, "aerial_won": 0.1882, "aerial_lost": 0.1353, "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles_won": 0.7887, "tackles": 1.2453, "clearances": 0.832, "total_contest": 1.5155, "won_contest": 0.7354, "challenges_lost": 1.4775, "fouls": 0.3957, "fouls_drawn": 1.1378, "blocks": 0.011, "big_chances_created": 0.0765, "big_chances_missed": 0.019, "xgot": 0.0409, "ball_carries": 29.5106, "total_progression": 96.9529, "progressive_carries": 1.7014, "shots_off_target": 0.5399 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8581, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7808, "after": 0.7887 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5149, "after": 0.5092 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2335, "expected_assists": 0.1897, "assists": 0.1621, "assist_rate": 0.1621, "expected_goals": 0.0697, "goals": 0.0874, "goal_rate": 0.0874, "shots_on_target": 0.1961, "total_shots": 0.7383, "rating": 7.268, "minutes": 77.23, "total_pass": 72.4646, "accurate_pass": 66.2455, "duels_won": 3.307, "total_long_balls": 3.7521, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4857, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7753, "total_opp_half_passes": 48.2924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 43.4702, "crosses_total": 0.7666, "crosses_accurate": 0.2699, "touches": 84.6179, "possession_lost": 9.727, "dispossessed": 0.8204, "duels_lost": 3.6134, "aerial_won": 0.1882, "aerial_lost": 0.1353, "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles_won": 0.7887, "tackles": 1.2453, "clearances": 0.832, "total_contest": 1.5155, "won_contest": 0.7354, "challenges_lost": 1.4775, "fouls": 0.3957, "fouls_drawn": 1.1378, "blocks": 0.011, "big_chances_created": 0.0765, "big_chances_missed": 0.019, "xgot": 0.0409, "ball_carries": 29.5106, "total_progression": 96.9529, "progressive_carries": 1.7014, "shots_off_target": 0.5399 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2335, "expected_assists": 0.1897, "assists": 0.1621, "assist_rate": 0.1621, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "shots_on_target": 0.1898, "total_shots": 0.7145, "rating": 7.268, "minutes": 77.23, "total_pass": 72.4646, "accurate_pass": 66.2455, "duels_won": 3.307, "total_long_balls": 3.7521, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4857, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7753, "total_opp_half_passes": 48.2924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 43.4702, "crosses_total": 0.7666, "crosses_accurate": 0.2699, "touches": 84.6179, "possession_lost": 9.727, "dispossessed": 0.8204, "duels_lost": 3.6134, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.1353, "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles_won": 0.7887, "tackles": 1.2453, "clearances": 0.832, "total_contest": 1.5155, "won_contest": 0.7354, "challenges_lost": 1.4775, "fouls": 0.3957, "fouls_drawn": 1.1378, "blocks": 0.011, "big_chances_created": 0.0765, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.0396, "ball_carries": 29.5106, "total_progression": 96.9529, "progressive_carries": 1.7014, "shots_off_target": 0.5225, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9678, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Barrios", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Barrios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pablo Barrios", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9678, "skill_edge": 0.0061, "height_edge": -0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.8999, "defender_skill": 0.8863, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pablo Barrios", "market_value": 77000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.8863 } ], "xg_override": 0.0675 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1882, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7383, "after": 0.7145 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5399, "after": 0.5225 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1961, "after": 0.1898 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2335, "expected_assists": 0.1897, "assist_rate": 0.1621, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1898, "total_shots": 0.7145, "rating": 7.268, "minutes": 77.23, "total_pass": 72.4646, "accurate_pass": 66.2455, "duels_won": 3.307, "total_long_balls": 3.7521, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4857, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7753, "total_opp_half_passes": 48.2924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 43.4702, "crosses_total": 0.7666, "crosses_accurate": 0.2699, "touches": 84.6179, "possession_lost": 9.727, "dispossessed": 0.8204, "duels_lost": 3.6134, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.1353, "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles_won": 0.7887, "tackles": 1.2453, "clearances": 0.832, "total_contest": 1.5155, 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contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.12 (squad xG sum 2.2093, xG scale 0.9591, xA scale 0.9591, team xA 1.45 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2335, "expected_assists": 0.1819, "assist_rate": 0.1621, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1898, "total_shots": 0.7145, "rating": 7.268, "minutes": 77.23, "total_pass": 72.4646, "accurate_pass": 66.2455, "duels_won": 3.307, "total_long_balls": 3.7521, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4857, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7753, "total_opp_half_passes": 48.2924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 43.4702, "crosses_total": 0.7666, "crosses_accurate": 0.2699, "touches": 84.6179, "possession_lost": 9.727, "dispossessed": 0.8204, "duels_lost": 3.6134, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.1353, "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles_won": 0.7887, "tackles": 1.2453, "clearances": 0.832, "total_contest": 1.5155, "won_contest": 0.7354, "challenges_lost": 1.4775, 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true, "xg_scale": 0.9591, "xa_scale": 0.9591, "opponent_lambda": 1.521, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1897, "after": 0.1819 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2335, "expected_assists": 0.1819, "assist_rate": 0.1621, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1898, "total_shots": 0.7145, "rating": 7.268, "minutes": 77.23, "total_pass": 72.4646, "accurate_pass": 66.2455, "duels_won": 3.307, "total_long_balls": 3.7521, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4857, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7753, "total_opp_half_passes": 48.2924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 43.4702, "crosses_total": 0.7666, "crosses_accurate": 0.2699, "touches": 84.6179, "possession_lost": 9.727, "dispossessed": 0.8204, "duels_lost": 3.6134, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.1353, "interceptions": 0.5092, "tackles_won": 0.7887, "tackles": 1.2453, "clearances": 0.832, "total_contest": 1.5155, "won_contest": 0.7354, "challenges_lost": 1.4775, "fouls": 0.3957, "fouls_drawn": 1.1378, "blocks": 0.011, "big_chances_created": 0.0765, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.038, "ball_carries": 29.5106, "total_progression": 96.9529, "progressive_carries": 1.7014, "shots_off_target": 0.5225, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9678, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Barrios", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Barrios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1455, "creation_factor": 0.8849, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6, "fifa_rank": 12.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 90.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2335, "expected_assists": 0.1819, "assist_rate": 0.1621, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1898, "total_shots": 0.7145, "rating": 7.268, "minutes": 77.23, "total_pass": 72.4646, "accurate_pass": 66.2455, "duels_won": 3.307, "total_long_balls": 3.7521, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4857, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7753, "total_opp_half_passes": 48.2924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 43.4702, "crosses_total": 0.7666, "crosses_accurate": 0.2699, "touches": 84.6179, "possession_lost": 9.727, "dispossessed": 0.8204, "duels_lost": 3.6134, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 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"fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "scorer_weight": 0.0741, "squad_weight_total": 2.4716, "weight_share": 0.03, "finishing_factor": 1.1455, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.7467, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7467, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7103 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7103, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7103, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3186 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2335, "expected_assists": 0.1819, "assist_rate": 0.1621, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0647, 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{ "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4034 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1663 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1644 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.1099 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0713 } ], "others": 0.2338, "total": 2.134, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.403422 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.166313 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.164406 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.109938 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.071273 } ], "others_margin": 0.233699 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.09663724899292, "model_output": 7.0966, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": 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"Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Barrios", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Barrios", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pablo Barrios", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9784, "skill_edge": 0.0053, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.8981, "defender_skill": 0.8863, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pablo Barrios", "market_value": 77000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.8863 } ], "xg_override": 0.1871 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4589, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1743, "after": 2.1274 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 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0.3369, "touches": 58.3813, "possession_lost": 12.6676, "dispossessed": 1.3243, "duels_lost": 5.4659, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3851, "interceptions": 0.3748, "tackles_won": 0.5784, "tackles": 1.2003, "clearances": 0.2557, "total_contest": 2.4138, "won_contest": 1.3993, "challenges_lost": 0.9777, "fouls": 1.7984, "fouls_drawn": 0.7341, "blocks": 0.0844, "big_chances_created": 1.0077, "big_chances_missed": 0.1317, "xgot": 0.4674, "ball_carries": 15.0106, "total_progression": 54.4058, "progressive_carries": 1.8835, "shots_off_target": 1.3652, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9784, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Barrios", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Barrios", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, 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0.1583, "total": 7.4543, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.171716 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.158535 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.083238 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.066444 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.042852 } ], "others_margin": 0.158181 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0143, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6736, "goals": 0.8049, "goal_rate": 0.8049, "shots_on_target": 1.6487, "total_shots": 3.5197, "expected_assists": 0.1267, "key_pass": 1.6746, "rating": 7.4543, "minutes": 76.38, "total_pass": 27.032, "accurate_pass": 22.3832, "duels_won": 2.5359, "total_long_balls": 1.3376, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6432, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0152, "crosses_total": 2.6884, "crosses_accurate": 0.6865, "touches": 41.0991, "possession_lost": 9.0711, "dispossessed": 0.5365, "duels_lost": 2.1273, "aerial_lost": 0.2271, "total_contest": 1.758, "won_contest": 1.1521, "ball_recovery": 1.5188, "challenges_lost": 0.4328, "fouls": 0.3963, "fouls_drawn": 0.5032, "assists": 0.2142, "assist_rate": 0.2142, "interceptions": 0.077, 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1.0451, "clearances": 0.3327, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.094, "big_chances_missed": 0.4072, "xgot": 0.2562, "offsides": 0.3337, "ball_carries": 17.8449, "total_progression": 101.4599, "progressive_carries": 5.11, "shots_off_target": 1.4009 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3118, "goals": 0.3354, "goal_rate": 0.3354, "shots_on_target": 1.227, "total_shots": 2.6234, "expected_assists": 0.1326, "key_pass": 1.5276, "rating": 7.2969, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 27.5802, "accurate_pass": 24.5204, "duels_won": 4.0422, "total_long_balls": 0.5329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4061, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0287, "crosses_total": 1.7349, "crosses_accurate": 0.1134, "touches": 42.6785, "possession_lost": 9.1526, "dispossessed": 1.0488, "duels_lost": 4.1742, "aerial_lost": 0.5011, "total_contest": 3.3142, "won_contest": 1.8438, "ball_recovery": 1.9699, "challenges_lost": 0.5731, "fouls": 0.5804, "fouls_drawn": 1.0196, "assists": 0.1832, "assist_rate": 0.1832, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.7785, "tackles": 1.0451, "clearances": 0.3327, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.094, "big_chances_missed": 0.4049, "xgot": 0.2548, "offsides": 0.3337, "ball_carries": 17.8449, "total_progression": 101.4599, "progressive_carries": 5.11, "shots_off_target": 1.3931, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9944, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.196, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko", "opponent_faced": "Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.196, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9944, "skill_edge": 0.0202, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.8837, "defender_skill": 0.8388, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Marc Pubill", "market_value": 48000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8608 }, { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "market_value": 36000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8168 } ], "xg_override": 0.3118 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.6382, "after": 2.6234 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4009, "after": 1.3931 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.2339, "after": 1.227 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters 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"total_progression": 101.4599, "progressive_carries": 5.11, "shots_off_target": 1.3931, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9944, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.196, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko", "opponent_faced": "Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0652, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.119, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2093, "squad_xa_sum": 1.5111, "team_expected_assists": 1.4494, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.684, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9591, "xa_scale": 0.9591, "opponent_lambda": 1.521, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2991, "goal_rate": 0.3354, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.227, "total_shots": 2.6234, "expected_assists": 0.1272, "key_pass": 1.5276, "rating": 7.2969, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 27.5802, "accurate_pass": 24.5204, "duels_won": 4.0422, "total_long_balls": 0.5329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4061, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0287, "crosses_total": 1.7349, "crosses_accurate": 0.1134, "touches": 42.6785, "possession_lost": 9.1526, "dispossessed": 1.0488, "duels_lost": 4.1742, "aerial_lost": 0.5011, "total_contest": 3.3142, "won_contest": 1.8438, "ball_recovery": 1.9699, "challenges_lost": 0.5731, "fouls": 0.5804, "fouls_drawn": 1.0196, "assist_rate": 0.1832, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1949, "tackles_won": 0.7785, "tackles": 1.0451, "clearances": 0.3327, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.094, "big_chances_missed": 0.4049, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2991, "goal_rate": 0.3354, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.227, "total_shots": 2.6234, "expected_assists": 0.1272, "key_pass": 1.5276, "rating": 7.2969, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 27.5802, "accurate_pass": 24.5204, "duels_won": 4.0422, "total_long_balls": 0.5329, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4061, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0287, "crosses_total": 1.7349, "crosses_accurate": 0.1134, "touches": 42.6785, "possession_lost": 9.1526, "dispossessed": 1.0488, "duels_lost": 4.1742, "aerial_lost": 0.5011, "total_contest": 3.3142, "won_contest": 1.8438, "ball_recovery": 1.9699, "challenges_lost": 0.5731, "fouls": 0.5804, "fouls_drawn": 1.0196, "assist_rate": 0.1832, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.896934 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.349073 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.114798 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.096523 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.053439 } ], "others_margin": -0.067494 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18662942945957184, "model_output": 0.1866, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.23 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0264, "total": 0.1866, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.229993 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.019715 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01665 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.016508 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014652 } ], "others_margin": -0.026404 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.911787509918213, "model_output": 6.9118, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0898 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0791 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0724 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0036, "total": 6.9118, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.089815 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.079087 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.072422 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023107 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010408 } ], "others_margin": -0.003658 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles": 0.5557, "tackles_won": 0.4103, "clearances": 0.7541, "aerial_won": 0.3184, "total_shots": 0.189, "rating": 6.9118, "minutes": 27.47, "total_pass": 33.401, "accurate_pass": 31.2186, "duels_won": 1.8613, "total_long_balls": 1.022, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8244, "total_own_half_passes": 12.4319, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2255, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9931, "crosses_total": 0.288, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.4234, "possession_lost": 3.5139, "dispossessed": 0.3008, "duels_lost": 0.7697, "aerial_lost": 0.1976, "total_contest": 0.487, "won_contest": 0.319, "ball_recovery": 1.7302, "challenges_lost": 0.1032, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8714, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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"total_progression": 33.6852, "progressive_carries": 0.3349, "key_pass": 0.0927, "shots_off_target": 0.0886, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.89, "projection_minutes": 27.47, "minutes_scale": 0.4692, "appearance_probability": 0.507 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1441, "tackles": 0.2608, "tackles_won": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.3539, "aerial_won": 0.1494, "total_shots": 0.0886, "rating": 6.9118, "minutes": 12.89, "total_pass": 15.6731, "accurate_pass": 14.649, "duels_won": 0.8734, "total_long_balls": 0.4796, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7367, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8395, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9123, "crosses_total": 0.1343, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.499, "possession_lost": 1.6489, "dispossessed": 0.3008, 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"accurate_pass": 14.649, "duels_won": 0.8734, "total_long_balls": 0.4796, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7367, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8395, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9123, "crosses_total": 0.1343, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.499, "possession_lost": 1.6489, "dispossessed": 0.3008, "duels_lost": 0.3612, "aerial_lost": 0.1976, "total_contest": 0.2285, "won_contest": 0.1497, "ball_recovery": 0.8119, "challenges_lost": 0.1032, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.4071, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0022, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6366, "total_progression": 33.6852, "progressive_carries": 0.3349, "key_pass": 0.0927, "shots_off_target": 0.0886, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.89, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.507, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3536, "tackles": 0.7493, "tackles_won": 0.5474, "clearances": 0.5759, "aerial_won": 0.1788, "total_shots": 0.1519, "rating": 6.7086, "minutes": 29.84, "total_pass": 19.4166, "accurate_pass": 17.3631, "duels_won": 2.2057, "total_long_balls": 0.1161, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.7809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8947, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6357, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4683, "crosses_total": 0.4104, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.8086, "possession_lost": 4.2046, "dispossessed": 0.1122, "duels_lost": 1.3511, "aerial_lost": 0.0438, "total_contest": 1.2794, "won_contest": 0.501, "ball_recovery": 1.9289, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4168, "fouls_drawn": 0.7923, "blocks": 0.0438, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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"expected_goals": 0.0245, "expected_assists": 0.2054, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 426, "combined_rank_score": 261.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 230.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1327, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dani Olmo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ismoilbek 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25.47, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.597, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0109, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 27.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (42 historical appearances) to 25.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 27.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9693, "expected_assists": 0.0827, "assists": 0.1039, "assist_rate": 0.1039, "expected_goals": 0.0897, "goals": 0.1474, "goal_rate": 0.1474, "shots_on_target": 0.3885, "total_shots": 0.9126, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 22.8, "total_pass": 17.9859, "accurate_pass": 16.768, "duels_won": 1.8224, "total_long_balls": 0.9896, "accurate_long_balls": 0.853, "total_own_half_passes": 4.988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.823, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9979, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9451, "crosses_total": 0.2794, "crosses_accurate": 0.0858, "touches": 23.7636, "possession_lost": 2.5092, "dispossessed": 0.3934, "duels_lost": 0.9196, "aerial_won": 0.2585, "aerial_lost": 0.1187, "interceptions": 0.1656, "tackles_won": 0.1023, "tackles": 0.289, "clearances": 0.6145, "total_contest": 0.5456, "won_contest": 0.3217, "challenges_lost": 0.1666, "fouls": 0.0169, "fouls_drawn": 0.9533, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3925, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1621, "ball_carries": 7.7386, "total_progression": 18.9185, "progressive_carries": 0.389, "shots_off_target": 0.524 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:05:50.765150+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 905, "rows": 25067 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.6153, "creative_index": 0.7643, "expectedGoals": 0.1304, "expectedAssists": 0.1859, "keyPass": 1.6319 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9692763090133667, "model_output": 0.9693, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1373 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0712 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0516 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0289 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8902, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4283 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0772 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.061 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0321 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0285 } ], "others": 0.3086, "total": 0.9693, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.116298, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.655998 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.154562 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.107153 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.052045 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.044109 } ], "others_margin": 0.383221 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08267626911401749, "model_output": 0.0827, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1181 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1136 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1034 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0572 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0473 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0039 } ], "others": 0.0246, "total": 0.0827, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.468924, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.623943 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.179867 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.081545 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.081471 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.068517 } ], "others_margin": 0.351733 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.1038774624466896, "model_output": 0.1039, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0445 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0324 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0293 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0084 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0061 } ], "others": 0.0202, "total": 0.1039, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463472, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.277088 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.121088 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.11219 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.098236 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.070588 } ], "others_margin": 0.215093 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08967173844575882, "model_output": 0.0897, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0756 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0918, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0051 } ], "others": 0.0029, "total": 0.0897, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.554601 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.18842 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.186676 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.063465 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.060672 } ], "others_margin": 0.031731 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.14735616743564606, "model_output": 0.1474, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0075 } ], "others": 0.0317, "total": 0.1474, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.449802 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.281022 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.186223 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.116643 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.067265 } ], "others_margin": 0.242134 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3885361850261688, "model_output": 0.3885, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.052 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0316 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0775, "total": 0.3885, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.501577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.239222 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.121598 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.071411 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.04778 } ], "others_margin": 0.222283 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9125593304634094, "model_output": 0.9126, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5578 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3515 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0301 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 0.9126, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.557839 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.351525 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.061856 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.030414 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.030131 } ], "others_margin": 0.011537 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.132709980010986, "model_output": 7.1327, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1366 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0556 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0224 } ], "others": 0.1345, "total": 7.1327, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.136562 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.099998 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.055575 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026185 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02235 } ], "others_margin": 0.134634 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9798, "expected_assists": 0.0836, "assists": 0.105, "assist_rate": 0.105, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goals": 0.149, "goal_rate": 0.149, "shots_on_target": 0.3928, "total_shots": 0.9225, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 22.8, "total_pass": 18.1819, "accurate_pass": 16.9508, "duels_won": 1.8423, "total_long_balls": 1.0004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8756, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0753, "crosses_total": 0.2824, "crosses_accurate": 0.0867, "touches": 24.0226, "possession_lost": 2.5366, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 0.9296, "aerial_won": 0.2613, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1674, "tackles_won": 0.1034, "tackles": 0.2922, "clearances": 0.6212, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.3252, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.0171, "fouls_drawn": 0.9637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3968, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 7.823, "total_progression": 19.1247, "progressive_carries": 0.3932, "shots_off_target": 0.5297 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0109, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0060)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9798, "expected_assists": 0.0836, "assists": 0.1044, "assist_rate": 0.1044, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goals": 0.1481, "goal_rate": 0.1481, "shots_on_target": 0.3916, "total_shots": 0.9216, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 22.8, "total_pass": 18.1819, "accurate_pass": 16.9508, "duels_won": 1.8423, "total_long_balls": 1.0004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8756, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0753, "crosses_total": 0.2842, "crosses_accurate": 0.0867, "touches": 24.0226, "possession_lost": 2.5366, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 0.9296, "aerial_won": 0.2613, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1664, "tackles_won": 0.1028, "tackles": 0.2922, "clearances": 0.6212, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.3252, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.017, "fouls_drawn": 0.9603, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3968, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 7.823, "total_progression": 19.1247, "progressive_carries": 0.3932, "shots_off_target": 0.5297 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.006, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2533, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.8 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0945, "expected_assists": 0.0934, "assists": 0.1166, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "expected_goals": 0.1012, "goals": 0.1654, "goal_rate": 0.1654, "shots_on_target": 0.4375, "total_shots": 1.0295, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.3111, "accurate_pass": 18.9358, "duels_won": 2.058, "total_long_balls": 1.1176, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9633, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4466, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6783, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4894, "crosses_total": 0.3175, "crosses_accurate": 0.0969, "touches": 26.8358, "possession_lost": 2.8336, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 1.0385, "aerial_won": 0.2919, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1859, "tackles_won": 0.1148, "tackles": 0.3264, "clearances": 0.6939, "total_contest": 0.6161, "won_contest": 0.3633, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.019, "fouls_drawn": 1.0728, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4433, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1831, "ball_carries": 8.7391, "total_progression": 21.3643, "progressive_carries": 0.4392, "shots_off_target": 0.5917, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.47, "projection_minutes": 22.8, "minutes_scale": 1.1171, "appearance_probability": 0.597 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0945, "expected_assists": 0.0934, "assists": 0.1166, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "expected_goals": 0.1012, "goals": 0.1654, "goal_rate": 0.1654, "shots_on_target": 0.4375, "total_shots": 1.0295, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.3111, "accurate_pass": 18.9358, "duels_won": 2.058, "total_long_balls": 1.1176, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9633, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4466, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6783, 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"fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 13.0, "goals_per90": 1.0, "assists_per90": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (11 historical appearances) to 19.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.62); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 13.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1083, "goals": 0.111, "goal_rate": 0.111, "shots_on_target": 0.2745, "total_shots": 0.76, "expected_assists": 0.0383, "key_pass": 0.5999, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.64, "total_pass": 7.3528, "accurate_pass": 6.5953, "duels_won": 1.2847, "total_long_balls": 0.1877, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1877, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0435, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4455, "crosses_total": 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0.1287 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0037 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0032 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": 0.0006, "total": 0.0383, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.541378 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.117584 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.103684 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.082552 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.072562 } ], "others_margin": 0.01613 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5999497771263123, "model_output": 0.5999, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2705 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0519 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.025 } ], "others": 0.0381, "total": 0.5999, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.496025 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.116169 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.079887 }, { "name": 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022841 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.019572 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019002 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.016347 } ], "others_margin": -0.017288 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0263, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1112, "goals": 0.1139, "goal_rate": 0.1139, "shots_on_target": 0.2818, "total_shots": 0.7801, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.6157, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.64, "total_pass": 7.5462, "accurate_pass": 6.7688, "duels_won": 1.3185, "total_long_balls": 0.1926, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1926, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1761, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5624, "crosses_total": 0.8075, "crosses_accurate": 0.1926, "touches": 13.1117, "possession_lost": 3.1783, "dispossessed": 0.3029, "duels_lost": 1.4812, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5318, "won_contest": 0.5394, "ball_recovery": 0.6992, "challenges_lost": 0.1006, "fouls": 0.0855, "fouls_drawn": 0.4003, "assists": 0.1006, "assist_rate": 0.1006, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2783, "clearances": 0.1392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3497, "xgot": 0.2761, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0023, "total_progression": 21.0501, "progressive_carries": 1.5197, "shots_off_target": 0.4983 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0263, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1112, "goals": 0.115, "goal_rate": 0.115, "shots_on_target": 0.286, "total_shots": 0.7776, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.6157, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.64, "total_pass": 7.5462, "accurate_pass": 6.7688, "duels_won": 1.3185, "total_long_balls": 0.1926, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1926, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1761, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5624, "crosses_total": 0.7992, 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XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0059, quality 0.607)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1001, "goals": 0.1111, "goal_rate": 0.1111, "shots_on_target": 0.3251, "total_shots": 0.7336, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "key_pass": 0.3779, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 6.2415, "accurate_pass": 5.2499, "duels_won": 1.1766, "total_long_balls": 0.1124, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0851, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9702, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6319, "possession_lost": 2.6533, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 1.9659, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 0.7722, "won_contest": 0.4044, "ball_recovery": 0.7142, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.2574, "fouls_drawn": 0.0168, "assists": 0.163, "assist_rate": 0.163, "interceptions": 0.3148, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3564, "clearances": 0.0415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.163, "big_chances_missed": 0.1301, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 2.3556, "total_progression": 3.2298, "progressive_carries": 0.2023, "shots_off_target": 0.4085 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17600000, "quality_factor": 0.6068, "boost_factor": 1.0059, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.9 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1374, "goals": 0.1525, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assists": 0.2237, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.1478, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.96, "projection_minutes": 18.92, "minutes_scale": 1.3723, "appearance_probability": 0.589 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1374, "goals": 0.1525, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assists": 0.2237, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.1478, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1374, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.1478, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.12 (squad xG sum 2.2093, xG scale 0.9591, xA scale 0.9591, team xA 1.45 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0776, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0806, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.119, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2093, "squad_xa_sum": 1.5111, "team_expected_assists": 1.4494, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.684, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9591, "xa_scale": 0.9591, "opponent_lambda": 1.521, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.589 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1374, "after": 0.0776 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0379, "after": 0.0214 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0776, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0806, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2126, "fifa_rank": 862.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0776, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0727, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0806, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "scorer_weight": 0.0839, "squad_weight_total": 2.4716, "weight_share": 0.0339, "finishing_factor": 1.0806, "appearance_weight": 0.589, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.7467, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7467, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7103 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7103, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7103, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3186 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0776, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0727, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.021, "finishing_factor": 1.0806, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.021, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "provider_weight": 0.0267, "squad_weight_total": 1.6516, "weight_share": 0.0162, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.589, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.4437, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4437, "runner_up": "Fermín López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1931 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Karim Adeyemi": { "player_id": 940054, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 180, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1248, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 3.4504, "dispossessed": 0.3029, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1106, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1779, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.15, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0677, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0249, "finishing_factor": 1.024, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421091.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.251, "expected_assists": 0.4504, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421080.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421068.0, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421060.0, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3701, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0263, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1112, "goals": 0.1139, "goal_rate": 0.1139, "shots_on_target": 0.2818, "total_shots": 0.7801, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.6157, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.64, "total_pass": 7.5462, "accurate_pass": 6.7688, "duels_won": 1.3185, "total_long_balls": 0.1926, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1926, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1761, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5624, "crosses_total": 0.8075, "crosses_accurate": 0.1926, "touches": 13.1117, "possession_lost": 3.1783, "dispossessed": 0.3029, "duels_lost": 1.4812, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5318, "won_contest": 0.5394, "ball_recovery": 0.6992, "challenges_lost": 0.1006, "fouls": 0.0855, "fouls_drawn": 0.4003, "assists": 0.1006, "assist_rate": 0.1006, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2783, "clearances": 0.1392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3497, "xgot": 0.2761, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0023, "total_progression": 21.0501, "progressive_carries": 1.5197, "shots_off_target": 0.4983 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0263, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1112, "goals": 0.115, "goal_rate": 0.115, "shots_on_target": 0.286, "total_shots": 0.7776, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "key_pass": 0.6157, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 17.64, "total_pass": 7.5462, "accurate_pass": 6.7688, "duels_won": 1.3185, "total_long_balls": 0.1926, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1926, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1761, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5624, "crosses_total": 0.7992, "crosses_accurate": 0.1926, "touches": 13.1117, "possession_lost": 3.1783, "dispossessed": 0.3029, "duels_lost": 1.4812, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5318, "won_contest": 0.5394, "ball_recovery": 0.6992, "challenges_lost": 0.1006, "fouls": 0.087, "fouls_drawn": 0.4002, "assists": 0.1019, "assist_rate": 0.1019, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2783, "clearances": 0.1392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3497, "xgot": 0.2761, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.0023, "total_progression": 21.0501, "progressive_carries": 1.5197, "shots_off_target": 0.4983 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0135, "history_matches": 11, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.196, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.8075, "after": 0.7992 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.6 to 19.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goals": 0.1248, "goal_rate": 0.1248, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "total_shots": 0.8515, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 0.6684, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.1922, "accurate_pass": 7.3482, "duels_won": 1.4314, "total_long_balls": 0.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2091, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9529, "crosses_total": 0.8676, "crosses_accurate": 0.2091, "touches": 14.2341, "possession_lost": 3.4504, "dispossessed": 0.3029, "duels_lost": 1.608, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6629, "won_contest": 0.5856, "ball_recovery": 0.7591, "challenges_lost": 0.1006, "fouls": 0.0944, "fouls_drawn": 0.4345, "assists": 0.1106, "assist_rate": 0.1106, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3021, "clearances": 0.1511, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3796, "xgot": 0.2997, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.5161, "total_progression": 22.852, "progressive_carries": 1.6498, "shots_off_target": 0.541, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.15 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.15, "projection_minutes": 17.64, "minutes_scale": 1.0856, "appearance_probability": 0.619 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goals": 0.1248, "goal_rate": 0.1248, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "total_shots": 0.8515, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 0.6684, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.1922, "accurate_pass": 7.3482, "duels_won": 1.4314, "total_long_balls": 0.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2091, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9529, "crosses_total": 0.8676, "crosses_accurate": 0.2091, "touches": 14.2341, "possession_lost": 3.4504, "dispossessed": 0.3029, "duels_lost": 1.608, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6629, "won_contest": 0.5856, "ball_recovery": 0.7591, "challenges_lost": 0.1006, "fouls": 0.0944, "fouls_drawn": 0.4345, "assists": 0.1106, "assist_rate": 0.1106, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3021, "clearances": 0.1511, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3796, "xgot": 0.2997, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.5161, "total_progression": 22.852, "progressive_carries": 1.6498, "shots_off_target": 0.541, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.15 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1248, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "total_shots": 0.8515, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 0.6684, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.1922, "accurate_pass": 7.3482, "duels_won": 1.4314, "total_long_balls": 0.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2091, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9529, "crosses_total": 0.8676, "crosses_accurate": 0.2091, "touches": 14.2341, "possession_lost": 3.4504, "dispossessed": 0.3029, "duels_lost": 1.608, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6629, "won_contest": 0.5856, "ball_recovery": 0.7591, "challenges_lost": 0.1006, "fouls": 0.0944, "fouls_drawn": 0.4345, "assist_rate": 0.1106, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3021, "clearances": 0.1511, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3796, "xgot": 0.2997, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.5161, "total_progression": 22.852, "progressive_carries": 1.6498, "shots_off_target": 0.541, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.15, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.12 (squad xG sum 2.2093, xG scale 0.9591, xA scale 0.9591, team xA 1.45 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1248, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "total_shots": 0.8515, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 0.6684, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.1922, "accurate_pass": 7.3482, "duels_won": 1.4314, "total_long_balls": 0.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2091, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9529, "crosses_total": 0.8676, "crosses_accurate": 0.2091, "touches": 14.2341, "possession_lost": 3.4504, "dispossessed": 0.3029, "duels_lost": 1.608, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6629, "won_contest": 0.5856, "ball_recovery": 0.7591, "challenges_lost": 0.1006, "fouls": 0.0944, "fouls_drawn": 0.4345, "assist_rate": 0.1106, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3021, "clearances": 0.1511, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3796, "xgot": 0.1779, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.5161, "total_progression": 22.852, "progressive_carries": 1.6498, "shots_off_target": 0.541, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.15, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.024, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.119, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2093, "squad_xa_sum": 1.5111, "team_expected_assists": 1.4494, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.684, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9591, "xa_scale": 0.9591, "opponent_lambda": 1.521, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.619 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1207, "after": 0.0717 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0427, "after": 0.0254 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1248, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "total_shots": 0.8515, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 0.6684, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.1922, "accurate_pass": 7.3482, "duels_won": 1.4314, "total_long_balls": 0.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2091, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9529, "crosses_total": 0.8676, "crosses_accurate": 0.2091, "touches": 14.2341, "possession_lost": 3.4504, "dispossessed": 0.3029, "duels_lost": 1.608, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6629, "won_contest": 0.5856, "ball_recovery": 0.7591, "challenges_lost": 0.1006, "fouls": 0.0944, "fouls_drawn": 0.4345, "assist_rate": 0.1106, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3021, "clearances": 0.1511, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3796, "xgot": 0.1779, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.5161, "total_progression": 22.852, "progressive_carries": 1.6498, "shots_off_target": 0.541, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.15, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.024, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 927, "fifa_rank": 416.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1248, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "total_shots": 0.8515, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 0.6684, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.1922, "accurate_pass": 7.3482, "duels_won": 1.4314, "total_long_balls": 0.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2091, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9529, "crosses_total": 0.8676, "crosses_accurate": 0.2091, "touches": 14.2341, "possession_lost": 3.4504, "dispossessed": 0.3029, "duels_lost": 1.608, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6629, "won_contest": 0.5856, "ball_recovery": 0.7591, "challenges_lost": 0.1006, "fouls": 0.0944, "fouls_drawn": 0.4345, "assist_rate": 0.1106, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3021, "clearances": 0.1511, "blocks": 0.0, 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"eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.7467, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7467, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7103 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7103, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7103, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3186 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.1248, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "total_shots": 0.8515, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "key_pass": 0.6684, "rating": 6.7205, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.1922, "accurate_pass": 7.3482, "duels_won": 1.4314, "total_long_balls": 0.2091, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2091, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9529, "crosses_total": 0.8676, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0249, "finishing_factor": 1.024, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0249, "assist_rate": 0.1106, "provider_weight": 0.0318, "squad_weight_total": 1.6516, "weight_share": 0.0192, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.619, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.4437, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4437, "runner_up": "Fermín López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1931 } ] } } ] }, "Dani Olmo": { "player_id": 789071, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 182, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goal_rate": 0.1654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, 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0.011537 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.132709980010986, "model_output": 7.1327, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1366 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0556 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0224 } ], "others": 0.1345, "total": 7.1327, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.136562 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.099998 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.055575 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026185 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02235 } ], "others_margin": 0.134634 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9798, "expected_assists": 0.0836, "assists": 0.105, "assist_rate": 0.105, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goals": 0.149, "goal_rate": 0.149, "shots_on_target": 0.3928, "total_shots": 0.9225, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 22.8, "total_pass": 18.1819, "accurate_pass": 16.9508, "duels_won": 1.8423, "total_long_balls": 1.0004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8756, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0753, "crosses_total": 0.2824, "crosses_accurate": 0.0867, "touches": 24.0226, "possession_lost": 2.5366, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 0.9296, "aerial_won": 0.2613, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1674, "tackles_won": 0.1034, "tackles": 0.2922, "clearances": 0.6212, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.3252, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.0171, "fouls_drawn": 0.9637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3968, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 7.823, "total_progression": 19.1247, "progressive_carries": 0.3932, "shots_off_target": 0.5297 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0109, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0060)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9798, "expected_assists": 0.0836, "assists": 0.1044, "assist_rate": 0.1044, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goals": 0.1481, "goal_rate": 0.1481, "shots_on_target": 0.3916, "total_shots": 0.9216, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 22.8, "total_pass": 18.1819, "accurate_pass": 16.9508, "duels_won": 1.8423, "total_long_balls": 1.0004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8756, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0753, "crosses_total": 0.2842, "crosses_accurate": 0.0867, "touches": 24.0226, "possession_lost": 2.5366, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 0.9296, "aerial_won": 0.2613, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1664, "tackles_won": 0.1028, "tackles": 0.2922, "clearances": 0.6212, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.3252, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.017, "fouls_drawn": 0.9603, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3968, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 7.823, "total_progression": 19.1247, "progressive_carries": 0.3932, "shots_off_target": 0.5297 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.006, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2533, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.8 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0945, "expected_assists": 0.0934, "assists": 0.1166, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "expected_goals": 0.1012, "goals": 0.1654, "goal_rate": 0.1654, "shots_on_target": 0.4375, "total_shots": 1.0295, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.3111, "accurate_pass": 18.9358, "duels_won": 2.058, "total_long_balls": 1.1176, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9633, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4466, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6783, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4894, "crosses_total": 0.3175, "crosses_accurate": 0.0969, "touches": 26.8358, "possession_lost": 2.8336, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 1.0385, "aerial_won": 0.2919, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1859, "tackles_won": 0.1148, "tackles": 0.3264, "clearances": 0.6939, "total_contest": 0.6161, "won_contest": 0.3633, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.019, "fouls_drawn": 1.0728, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4433, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1831, "ball_carries": 8.7391, "total_progression": 21.3643, "progressive_carries": 0.4392, "shots_off_target": 0.5917, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.47, "projection_minutes": 22.8, "minutes_scale": 1.1171, "appearance_probability": 0.597 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0945, "expected_assists": 0.0934, "assists": 0.1166, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "expected_goals": 0.1012, "goals": 0.1654, "goal_rate": 0.1654, "shots_on_target": 0.4375, "total_shots": 1.0295, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.3111, "accurate_pass": 18.9358, "duels_won": 2.058, "total_long_balls": 1.1176, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9633, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4466, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6783, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4894, "crosses_total": 0.3175, "crosses_accurate": 0.0969, "touches": 26.8358, "possession_lost": 2.8336, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 1.0385, "aerial_won": 0.2919, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1859, "tackles_won": 0.1148, "tackles": 0.3264, "clearances": 0.6939, "total_contest": 0.6161, "won_contest": 0.3633, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.019, "fouls_drawn": 1.0728, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4433, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1831, "ball_carries": 8.7391, "total_progression": 21.3643, "progressive_carries": 0.4392, "shots_off_target": 0.5917, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0945, "expected_assists": 0.0934, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1012, "goal_rate": 0.1654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4375, "total_shots": 1.0295, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.3111, "accurate_pass": 18.9358, "duels_won": 2.058, "total_long_balls": 1.1176, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9633, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4466, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6783, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4894, "crosses_total": 0.3175, "crosses_accurate": 0.0969, "touches": 26.8358, "possession_lost": 2.8336, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 1.0385, "aerial_won": 0.2919, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1859, "tackles_won": 0.1148, "tackles": 0.3264, "clearances": 0.6939, "total_contest": 0.6161, "won_contest": 0.3633, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.019, "fouls_drawn": 1.0728, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4433, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1831, "ball_carries": 8.7391, "total_progression": 21.3643, "progressive_carries": 0.4392, "shots_off_target": 0.5917, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.12 (squad xG sum 2.2093, xG scale 0.9591, xA scale 0.9591, team xA 1.45 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0945, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goal_rate": 0.1654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4375, "total_shots": 1.0295, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.3111, "accurate_pass": 18.9358, "duels_won": 2.058, "total_long_balls": 1.1176, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9633, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4466, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6783, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4894, "crosses_total": 0.3175, "crosses_accurate": 0.0969, "touches": 26.8358, "possession_lost": 2.8336, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 1.0385, "aerial_won": 0.2919, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1859, "tackles_won": 0.1148, "tackles": 0.3264, "clearances": 0.6939, "total_contest": 0.6161, "won_contest": 0.3633, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.019, "fouls_drawn": 1.0728, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4433, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1048, "ball_carries": 8.7391, "total_progression": 21.3643, "progressive_carries": 0.4392, "shots_off_target": 0.5917, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1618 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.119, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2093, "squad_xa_sum": 1.5111, "team_expected_assists": 1.4494, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.684, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9591, "xa_scale": 0.9591, "opponent_lambda": 1.521, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.597 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1012, "after": 0.0579 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0934, "after": 0.0535 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0945, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goal_rate": 0.1654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4375, "total_shots": 1.0295, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.3111, "accurate_pass": 18.9358, "duels_won": 2.058, "total_long_balls": 1.1176, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9633, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4466, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6783, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4894, "crosses_total": 0.3175, "crosses_accurate": 0.0969, "touches": 26.8358, "possession_lost": 2.8336, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 1.0385, "aerial_won": 0.2919, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1859, "tackles_won": 0.1148, "tackles": 0.3264, "clearances": 0.6939, "total_contest": 0.6161, "won_contest": 0.3633, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.019, "fouls_drawn": 1.0728, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4433, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1048, "ball_carries": 8.7391, "total_progression": 21.3643, "progressive_carries": 0.4392, "shots_off_target": 0.5917, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1618, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 426, "fifa_rank": 230.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0945, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goal_rate": 0.1654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4375, "total_shots": 1.0295, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.3111, "accurate_pass": 18.9358, "duels_won": 2.058, "total_long_balls": 1.1176, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9633, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4466, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6783, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4894, "crosses_total": 0.3175, "crosses_accurate": 0.0969, "touches": 26.8358, "possession_lost": 2.8336, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 1.0385, "aerial_won": 0.2919, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1859, "tackles_won": 0.1148, "tackles": 0.3264, "clearances": 0.6939, "total_contest": 0.6161, "won_contest": 0.3633, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.019, "fouls_drawn": 1.0728, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4433, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1048, "ball_carries": 8.7391, "total_progression": 21.3643, "progressive_carries": 0.4392, "shots_off_target": 0.5917, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0552, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1618, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0552, "goal_rate": 0.1654, "scorer_weight": 0.0724, "squad_weight_total": 2.4716, "weight_share": 0.0293, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.597, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.7467, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7467, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7103 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7103, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7103, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3186 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0945, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goal_rate": 0.1654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4375, "total_shots": 1.0295, "rating": 7.1327, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.3111, "accurate_pass": 18.9358, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.004, "total": 0.0274, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.422184 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.105763 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.085204 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.060142 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.053419 } ], "others_margin": -0.137128 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.37566477060317993, "model_output": 0.3757, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2653 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0176, "total": 0.3757, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.483797 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.067408 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.048537 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.031971 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.029857 } ], "others_margin": -0.045978 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.659701824188232, "model_output": 6.6597, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0659 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0197, "total": 6.6597, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065864 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013414 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012564 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010078 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.008138 } ], "others_margin": -0.019849 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0059, quality 0.607)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1001, "goals": 0.1111, "goal_rate": 0.1111, "shots_on_target": 0.3251, "total_shots": 0.7336, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "key_pass": 0.3779, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 6.2415, "accurate_pass": 5.2499, "duels_won": 1.1766, "total_long_balls": 0.1124, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0851, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9702, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6319, "possession_lost": 2.6533, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 1.9659, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 0.7722, "won_contest": 0.4044, "ball_recovery": 0.7142, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.2574, "fouls_drawn": 0.0168, "assists": 0.163, "assist_rate": 0.163, "interceptions": 0.3148, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3564, "clearances": 0.0415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.163, "big_chances_missed": 0.1301, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 2.3556, "total_progression": 3.2298, "progressive_carries": 0.2023, "shots_off_target": 0.4085 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17600000, "quality_factor": 0.6068, "boost_factor": 1.0059, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.9 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1374, "goals": 0.1525, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assists": 0.2237, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.1478, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.96, "projection_minutes": 18.92, "minutes_scale": 1.3723, "appearance_probability": 0.589 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1374, "goals": 0.1525, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assists": 0.2237, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.1478, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1374, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.1478, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.12 (squad xG sum 2.2093, xG scale 0.9591, xA scale 0.9591, team xA 1.45 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0776, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0806, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.119, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2093, "squad_xa_sum": 1.5111, "team_expected_assists": 1.4494, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.684, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9591, "xa_scale": 0.9591, "opponent_lambda": 1.521, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.589 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1374, "after": 0.0776 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0379, "after": 0.0214 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0776, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0806, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2126, "fifa_rank": 862.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0776, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0727, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0806, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "scorer_weight": 0.0839, "squad_weight_total": 2.4716, "weight_share": 0.0339, "finishing_factor": 1.0806, "appearance_weight": 0.589, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.7467, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7467, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7103 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7103, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7103, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3186 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0776, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4461, "total_shots": 1.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "key_pass": 0.5186, "rating": 6.6597, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5649, "accurate_pass": 7.2042, "duels_won": 1.6146, "total_long_balls": 0.1542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1168, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0759, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.5897, "possession_lost": 3.641, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 2.6977, "aerial_lost": 0.5499, "total_contest": 1.0597, "won_contest": 0.5549, "ball_recovery": 0.9801, "challenges_lost": 0.1528, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.0231, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4891, "clearances": 0.0569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2237, "big_chances_missed": 0.1785, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.1446, "ball_carries": 3.2325, "total_progression": 4.4321, "progressive_carries": 0.2776, "shots_off_target": 0.5606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.676, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0727, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.021, "finishing_factor": 1.0806, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.021, "assist_rate": 0.2237, "provider_weight": 0.0267, "squad_weight_total": 1.6516, "weight_share": 0.0162, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.589, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.4437, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4437, "runner_up": "Fermín López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1931 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.12, "expected_assists": 1.45, "total_shots": 22, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 689, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 7.28, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kang-in Lee", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Gerard Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.825, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1111, "xg_multiplier": 0.8677, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Gerard Martín", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kang-in Lee (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Pau Cubarsí and Gerard Martín in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €65M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.111 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ademola Lookman", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Gerard Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.825, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1574, "xg_multiplier": 0.8975, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Gerard Martín", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ademola Lookman (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Pau Cubarsí and Gerard Martín in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €65M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.157 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "Eric García" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.32, "xg_contribution": 0.1302, "xg_multiplier": 0.7947, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Eric García", "role": "RB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.68 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alejandro Grimaldo (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Eric García in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €44M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.130 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Obed Vargas", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 9300000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.514, "defenders": [ "Xavi Espart" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.353, "xg_contribution": 0.0444, "xg_multiplier": 0.8422, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Xavi Espart", "role": "LB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647 } ], "duel_analysis": "Obed Vargas (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Xavi Espart in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Barrios", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Rodri", "Pedri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.868, "duel_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "xg_contribution": 0.0634, "xg_multiplier": 0.9954, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rodri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703 }, { "player": "Pedri", "role": "CM", "market_value": 164000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Barrios (CM) is evenly matched against Rodri and Pedri in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €109M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Giuliano Simeone", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Rodri", "Pedri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.868, "duel_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.235, "xg_contribution": 0.1365, "xg_multiplier": 0.9046, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rodri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.765 }, { "player": "Pedri", "role": "CM", "market_value": 164000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.765 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giuliano Simeone (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Rodri and Pedri in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €109M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.137 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 237000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Marcos Llorente" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.558, "xg_contribution": 0.5924, "xg_multiplier": 1.1148, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Llorente", "role": "RB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.442 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (LW) is slightly favored against Marcos Llorente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€237M vs €21M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.592 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Raphinha", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Cristian Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.764, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "xg_contribution": 0.6492, "xg_multiplier": 0.9638, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "LB", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raphinha (RW) is evenly matched against Cristian Romero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €37M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.649 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Anthony Gordon", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 82000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.884, "defenders": [ "Marc Pubill", "Dávid Hancko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.787, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.196, "xg_contribution": 0.3118, "xg_multiplier": 0.9944, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Pubill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804 }, { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.804 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anthony Gordon (ST) is evenly matched against Marc Pubill and Dávid Hancko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€82M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.312 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Rodri", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Pablo Barrios" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.428, "xg_contribution": 0.0726, "xg_multiplier": 1.0414, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Barrios", "role": "CM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.572 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rodri (CDM) is evenly matched against Pablo Barrios in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pedri", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 164000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Pablo Barrios" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "xg_contribution": 0.0675, "xg_multiplier": 0.9678, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Barrios", "role": "CM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.602 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedri (CM) is evenly matched against Pablo Barrios in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€164M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Fermín López", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 113000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.896, "defenders": [ "Pablo Barrios" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "xg_contribution": 0.1871, "xg_multiplier": 0.9784, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Barrios", "role": "CM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.595 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fermín López (CM) is evenly matched against Pablo Barrios in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€113M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.187 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.73, "away_midfield_power": 0.878, "home_creative_power": 0.795, "away_creative_power": 1.009, "home_defensive_power": 0.669, "away_defensive_power": 0.746, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.454, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Pablo Barrios", "Alejandro Grimaldo", "Obed Vargas", "Giuliano Simeone" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Rodri", "Pedri", "Fermín López" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.6, "home_throughball_threat": 3.0, "away_throughball_threat": 3.6, "key_personal_duel": "Pablo Barrios vs Pedri", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.992, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.024 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.521, "away_lambda": 2.119, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CM vs CDM + CM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Kang-in Lee": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Gerard Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ademola Lookman": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Gerard Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alejandro Grimaldo": { "opponents": [ "Eric García", "Fermín López" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Obed Vargas": { "opponents": [ "Xavi Espart", "Rodri" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Barrios": { "opponents": [ "Rodri", "Pedri", "Fermín López" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Giuliano Simeone": { "opponents": [ "Rodri", "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marcos Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Cristian Romero": { "opponents": [ "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Pubill": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dávid Hancko": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jan Oblak": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Pau Cubarsí": { "opponents": [ "Kang-in Lee", "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gerard Martín": { "opponents": [ "Kang-in Lee", "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Eric García": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Xavi Espart": { "opponents": [ "Obed Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rodri": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Barrios", "Giuliano Simeone", "Obed Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedri": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Barrios", "Giuliano Simeone" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Llorente" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Raphinha": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Anthony Gordon": { "opponents": [ "Marc Pubill", "Dávid Hancko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Fermín López": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Barrios", "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joan García": { "opponents": [ "Ademola Lookman", "Kang-in Lee" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo Barrios vs Pedri will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 1.88. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9481, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1152, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.081, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8843, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9017, "home_midfield_factor": 0.992, "away_midfield_factor": 1.024, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7363, "away_avg_quality": 0.8411, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1048, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.8804, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.9904, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.0999, "elite_count_gap": -4, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2744, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1509, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0878, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.643, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8197 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.992, "result": 0.8132 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 0.7725 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.0366 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0002, "result": 1.0368 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8584, "result": 0.8899 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8843, "result": 0.787 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1152, "result": 0.9022 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9022, "result": 0.9022, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2744, "factor": 0.9122, "pre": 0.9022, "result": 0.823 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.823 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.197, "result": 1.02 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 1.5854 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5854, "result": 1.585, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 1.585, "result": 1.5511, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.551 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.551 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.551, "result": 1.551, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.521 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.8806, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.748 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.024, "result": 1.7899 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.8794 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.8794 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1451, "result": 2.1521 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9481, "result": 2.0404 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9017, "result": 1.8399 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.081, "result": 1.9209 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.9209, "result": 1.9209, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2744, "factor": 1.1509, "pre": 1.9209, "result": 2.2108 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.2108 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 2.431 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 2.6747 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.6747, "result": 2.675, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 2.675, "result": 2.7322, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 2.732 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 2.732 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 2.732, "result": 2.732, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 2.119 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.197, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "away_squad": "FC Barcelona", "home_goals_per90": 2.3333333333333335, "away_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.551, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 2.732, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.5854, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.6747, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.521, "final_away_lambda": 2.119 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0002, "attack_index": 1.208, "defense_concede_index": 0.831, "form_multiplier": 0.993, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.82, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 2.13, "opponent_ppg": 2.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1451, "attack_index": 1.77, "defense_concede_index": 0.786, "form_multiplier": 1.007, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.67, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.19, "team_ppg": 2.25, "opponent_ppg": 2.13 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 4-3-3 (duel lambdas: Home 1.585, Away 2.675). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.521, Away 2.119 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 7, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "away_squad": "FC Barcelona", "home_goals_per90": 2.3333333333333335, "away_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.521, "away_lambda": 2.119, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.585, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 2.675 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:38:02Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }