{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Betis", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261108", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0884, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0884, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0792, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Elche", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2446, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1131 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0884 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0792 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0788 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0705 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0514, "0-1": 0.0705, "0-2": 0.0503, "0-3": 0.0236, "0-4": 0.0083, "0-5": 0.0023, "0-6": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0788, "1-1": 0.1131, "1-2": 0.0792, "1-3": 0.0372, "1-4": 0.0131, "1-5": 0.0037, "1-6": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0627, "2-1": 0.0884, "2-2": 0.0623, "2-3": 0.0293, "2-4": 0.0103, "2-5": 0.0029, "2-6": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0329, "3-1": 0.0464, "3-2": 0.0327, "3-3": 0.0154, "3-4": 0.0054, "3-5": 0.0015, "4-0": 0.0129, "4-1": 0.0182, "4-2": 0.0129, "4-3": 0.006, "4-4": 0.0021, "4-5": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0041, "5-1": 0.0057, "5-2": 0.004, "5-3": 0.0019, "5-4": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0011, "6-1": 0.0015, "6-2": 0.0011 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4138, "draw": 0.2446, "away_win": 0.3416 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5732, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4268, "btts_yes": 0.6001, "btts_no": 0.3999, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2441, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2072 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.82, "ATR": 6.88, "GK": 7.26 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.79, "MCR": 7.03, "ATR": 7.21, "GK": 7.22 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Elche vs Real Betis. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Elche 2W-2D-6L vs Real Betis over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Fernando Niño, Ali Houary, Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Marc Aguado vs Facundo Bernal will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.75, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.65, "home_lambda": 1.574, "away_lambda": 1.41, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 6, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 0.9714, "away_multiplier": 1.0286 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1131, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4138, "draw": 0.2446, "away_win": 0.3416 }, "favorite": "Elche", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4138, "fair_spread": 0.164, "fair_total": 2.984, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.574, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.41, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5732, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6001, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2441, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2072, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Fernando Niño (Elche)", "estimate": 0.5695, "probability": 0.4342, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.4845, "probability": 0.384, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Roy Revivo (Elche)", "estimate": 0.2092, "probability": 0.1888, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Isco (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.2267, "probability": 0.2028, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.984, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 949, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.4, "possession_home_pct": 48.9, "possession_away_pct": 51.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Elche", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4138, "script": "Elche is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.16 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Real Betis must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Elche lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Betis chance creation leans on Abdessamad Ezzalzouli against Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Elche: starters carry the main goal usage through Fernando Niño, Ali Houary; bench watchlist: Facundo Buonanotte, Ezequiel Ponce.", "Real Betis: starters carry the main goal usage through Abdessamad Ezzalzouli; bench watchlist: Troy Parrott, Nelson Deossa, Dani Ceballos.", "Assist usage should flow through Roy Revivo, Isco; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Elche tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Real Betis is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Elche.", "Real Betis wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Elche": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Matías Dituro": { "player_id": 556884, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 105000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 34, "total_long_balls": 27, "accurate_long_balls": 12, "touches": 60, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2935, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Pablo Fornals", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421092.0, "match_date": "2026-11-01 17:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Valencia", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16421084.0, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.6654 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421076.0, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 30, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 15, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.9023 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421058.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 61, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416299.0, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 4, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.5233 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416342.0, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 43, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.909 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416322.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 26, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.5991 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.4831 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416304.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 25, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.816 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 34, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.6783 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3074, "combined_rank_score": 1043.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 134.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3636, "sofascore_appearances": 22.0, "fifa_rank": 1952.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2593, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matías Dituro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arnaud Kalimuendo", "ranking": 3069 }, { "player_name": "Karl Darlow", "ranking": 3070 }, { "player_name": "Habib Diarra", "ranking": 3071 }, { "player_name": "Jaidon Anthony", "ranking": 3072 }, { "player_name": "Alex Arce", "ranking": 3073 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Liam Delap", "ranking": 3075 }, { "player_name": "Leopold Querfeld", "ranking": 3076 }, { "player_name": "Daizen Maeda", "ranking": 3077 }, { "player_name": "Javi Galán", "ranking": 3078 }, { "player_name": "Matt O'Riley", "ranking": 3079 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 32, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9973, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Elche", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 32 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Elche, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9227, "goals_prevented": -0.0492, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.5696, "accurate_pass": 33.922, "total_long_balls": 26.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 11.7031, "touches": 60.5066, "clearances": 1.5338, "ball_recovery": 9.8999, "high_claims": 1.1545, "punches": 1.2433, "aerial_won": 0.2262, "sweeper_actions": 0.7297, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7015, "saves_inside_box": 2.1916, "possession_lost": 16.0289, "duels_won": 0.2576, "duels_lost": 0.1613, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.7478 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": 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"weight": 0.0569, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 26.7477, "accurateLongBalls": 11.7031, "possessionLostCtrl": 16.0289, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2543, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.5522, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7009 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.922652244567871, "model_output": 2.9227, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", 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"predicted": 7.259275436401367, "model_output": 7.2593, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0552 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0531 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.053 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0212 } ], "others": 0.0544, "total": 7.2593, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.055241 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.053139 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.052982 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.035304 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9148, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0.2256, "sweeper_actions": 0.7277, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6996, "saves_inside_box": 2.1857, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0.2569, "duels_lost": 0.1609, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0394, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6756 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 105000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0176)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9046, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0.2256, "sweeper_actions": 0.7277, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6996, "saves_inside_box": 2.1857, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0.2569, "duels_lost": 0.1609, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0387, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6756 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0176, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9148, "after": 2.9046 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9046, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0.2256, "sweeper_actions": 0.7277, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6996, "saves_inside_box": 2.1857, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0.2569, "duels_lost": 0.1609, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0387, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6756 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9046, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0.2256, "sweeper_actions": 0.7277, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6996, "saves_inside_box": 2.1857, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0.2569, "duels_lost": 0.1609, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0387, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6756, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2935, "shots_faced": 12.3, "expected_saves": 3.01, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Pablo Fornals", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Pablo Fornals", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.2935 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9046, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0.2256, "sweeper_actions": 0.7277, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6996, "saves_inside_box": 2.1857, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0.2569, "duels_lost": 0.1609, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0387, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6756, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2935, "shots_faced": 12.3, "expected_saves": 3.01, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Pablo Fornals", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 0.9357, xG scale 1.6822, xA scale 1.6822, team xA 1.04 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9046, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0.2256, "sweeper_actions": 0.7277, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6996, "saves_inside_box": 2.1857, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0.2569, "duels_lost": 0.1609, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0387, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6756, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2935, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Pablo Fornals", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.574, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9357, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6189, "team_expected_assists": 1.0411, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6615, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6822, "xa_scale": 1.6822, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 12.3, "after": 13.4 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.01, "after": 3.28 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.03, "after": 1.13 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9046, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, "aerial_won": 0.2256, "sweeper_actions": 0.7277, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6996, "saves_inside_box": 2.1857, "possession_lost": 15.9856, "duels_won": 0.2569, "duels_lost": 0.1609, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0387, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6756, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2935, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Pablo Fornals", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.7598, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.6164, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6164, "runner_up": "Ali Houary", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2866 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ali Houary", "weight": 0.2866, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2866, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2805 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9046, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.2593, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 49.4358, "accurate_pass": 33.8304, "total_long_balls": 26.6082, "accurate_long_balls": 11.6715, "touches": 60.3432, "clearances": 1.5297, "ball_recovery": 9.8732, "high_claims": 1.1514, "punches": 1.2399, 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"name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.053096 } ], "others_margin": -0.144153 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.38579437136650085, "model_output": 0.3858, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1183 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0409 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0305, "total": 0.3858, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.118263 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.040914 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.013066 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.008326 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.007708 } ], "others_margin": -0.030553 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.65731954574585, "model_output": 6.6573, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0467 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0258, "total": 6.6573, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.461)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.712, "tackles": 1.6816, "tackles_won": 1.0755, "clearances": 2.7376, "aerial_won": 0.6839, "total_shots": 0.3848, "rating": 6.6573, "minutes": 76.65, "total_pass": 22.8355, "accurate_pass": 18.563, "duels_won": 3.7764, "total_long_balls": 1.4291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4065, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9118, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0948, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9236, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4683, "crosses_total": 0.9708, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 40.8235, "possession_lost": 8.0819, "dispossessed": 0.2642, "duels_lost": 2.6388, "aerial_lost": 0.3604, "total_contest": 1.418, "won_contest": 0.6536, "ball_recovery": 1.5684, "challenges_lost": 0.2137, "fouls": 1.2586, "fouls_drawn": 0.7143, "blocks": 0.4034, "goals": 0.0602, "goal_rate": 0.0602, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.014, "shots_on_target": 0.0602, "big_chances_created": 0.0165, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 8.9586, "total_progression": 39.6961, "progressive_carries": 1.1484, "key_pass": 0.1853, "shots_off_target": 0.3246 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4900000, "quality_factor": 0.4609, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0242)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7019, "tackles": 1.6816, "tackles_won": 1.0921, "clearances": 2.7376, "aerial_won": 0.6839, "total_shots": 0.3825, "rating": 6.6573, "minutes": 76.65, "total_pass": 22.8355, "accurate_pass": 18.563, "duels_won": 3.7764, "total_long_balls": 1.4291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4065, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9118, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0948, 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1.4291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4065, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9118, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0948, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9236, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4683, "crosses_total": 0.9615, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 40.8235, "possession_lost": 8.0819, "dispossessed": 0.2642, "duels_lost": 2.6388, "aerial_lost": 0.3604, "total_contest": 1.418, "won_contest": 0.6536, "ball_recovery": 1.5684, "challenges_lost": 0.2137, "fouls": 1.2637, "fouls_drawn": 0.7112, "blocks": 0.4034, "goals": 0.0657, "goal_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.014, "shots_on_target": 0.0657, "big_chances_created": 0.0165, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 8.9586, "total_progression": 39.6961, "progressive_carries": 1.1484, "key_pass": 0.1853, "shots_off_target": 0.3246, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.683, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7019, "tackles": 1.6816, "tackles_won": 1.0921, "clearances": 2.7376, "aerial_won": 0.6839, "total_shots": 0.3903, "rating": 6.6573, "minutes": 76.65, "total_pass": 22.8355, "accurate_pass": 18.563, "duels_won": 3.7764, "total_long_balls": 1.4291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4065, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9118, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0948, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9236, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4683, "crosses_total": 0.9615, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 40.8235, "possession_lost": 8.0819, "dispossessed": 0.2642, "duels_lost": 2.6388, "aerial_lost": 0.3604, "total_contest": 1.418, "won_contest": 0.6536, "ball_recovery": 1.5684, "challenges_lost": 0.2137, "fouls": 1.2637, "fouls_drawn": 0.7112, "blocks": 0.4034, "goal_rate": 0.0657, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.014, "shots_on_target": 0.0657, "big_chances_created": 0.0165, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 8.9586, "total_progression": 39.6961, "progressive_carries": 1.1484, "key_pass": 0.1853, "shots_off_target": 0.3246, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.683, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs 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"Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.574, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9357, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6189, "team_expected_assists": 1.0411, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6615, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6822, "xa_scale": 1.6822, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.014, "after": 0.0236 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"global_player_rank": 5655, "fifa_rank": 6975.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7019, "tackles": 1.6816, "tackles_won": 1.0921, "clearances": 2.7376, "aerial_won": 0.6839, "total_shots": 0.3903, "rating": 6.6573, "minutes": 76.65, "total_pass": 22.8355, "accurate_pass": 18.563, "duels_won": 3.7764, "total_long_balls": 1.4291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4065, "total_own_half_passes": 11.9118, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0948, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9236, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4683, "crosses_total": 0.9615, "crosses_accurate": 0.1351, "touches": 40.8235, "possession_lost": 8.0819, "dispossessed": 0.2642, "duels_lost": 2.6388, "aerial_lost": 0.3604, "total_contest": 1.418, "won_contest": 0.6536, "ball_recovery": 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1975 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2162 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1999 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0966 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0765 } ], "others": -0.0587, "total": 1.6979, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134701 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.129223 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.118875 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.05919 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.044547 } ], "others_margin": -0.033998 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.39528629183769226, "model_output": 0.3953, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1152 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0045, "total": 0.3953, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.115226 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050369 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.018764 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017878 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01752 } ], "others_margin": -0.004471 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.77342414855957, "model_output": 6.7734, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": 0.0317, "total": 6.7734, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02214 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017709 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013371 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012013 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.008147 } ], "others_margin": 0.03173 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7145, "tackles": 1.0726, "tackles_won": 0.6465, "clearances": 5.4875, "aerial_won": 1.6933, "total_shots": 0.3942, "rating": 6.7734, "minutes": 81.39, "total_pass": 52.2854, "accurate_pass": 45.9255, "duels_won": 3.3796, "total_long_balls": 6.4722, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0974, "total_own_half_passes": 26.7638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2884, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.637, "crosses_total": 0.6843, "crosses_accurate": 0.252, "touches": 66.6005, "possession_lost": 9.09, "dispossessed": 0.1934, "duels_lost": 2.6044, "aerial_lost": 0.8379, "total_contest": 0.2926, "won_contest": 0.1452, "ball_recovery": 2.7204, "challenges_lost": 0.5474, "fouls": 0.9546, "fouls_drawn": 0.5163, "blocks": 0.5489, "goals": 0.059, 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{ "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7164, "tackles": 1.0726, "tackles_won": 0.6436, "clearances": 5.4875, "aerial_won": 1.6933, "total_shots": 0.393, "rating": 6.7734, "minutes": 81.39, "total_pass": 52.2854, "accurate_pass": 45.9255, "duels_won": 3.3796, "total_long_balls": 6.4722, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0974, "total_own_half_passes": 26.7638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2884, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.637, "crosses_total": 0.6812, "crosses_accurate": 0.252, "touches": 66.6005, "possession_lost": 9.09, "dispossessed": 0.1934, "duels_lost": 2.6044, "aerial_lost": 0.8379, "total_contest": 0.2926, "won_contest": 0.1452, "ball_recovery": 2.7204, "challenges_lost": 0.5474, "fouls": 0.9554, "fouls_drawn": 0.5139, "blocks": 0.5489, "goal_rate": 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match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2722 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1118 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0662 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0384 } ], "others": -0.1699, "total": 0.5046, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.272183 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11176 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.066152 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.045444 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.038386 } ], "others_margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9962, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0548, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "assists": 0.0976, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "expected_goals": 0.0763, "goals": 0.071, "goal_rate": 0.071, "shots_on_target": 0.2613, "total_shots": 0.8491, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 75.84, "total_pass": 39.2723, "accurate_pass": 34.3338, "duels_won": 4.717, "total_long_balls": 1.4475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7719, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7854, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5483, "crosses_total": 1.0878, "crosses_accurate": 0.3734, "touches": 51.4353, "possession_lost": 8.5811, "dispossessed": 1.5154, "duels_lost": 4.6853, "aerial_won": 0.6516, "aerial_lost": 0.6686, "interceptions": 0.5464, "tackles_won": 0.7583, "tackles": 1.6237, "clearances": 0.4641, "total_contest": 1.1128, "won_contest": 0.5818, "challenges_lost": 0.8036, "fouls": 1.3978, "fouls_drawn": 1.93, "blocks": 0.3186, "big_chances_created": 0.0861, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0938, "ball_carries": 14.3783, "total_progression": 33.0165, "progressive_carries": 1.0436, "shots_off_target": 0.5878 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9962, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0241)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0548, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "assists": 0.102, "assist_rate": 0.102, "expected_goals": 0.0763, "goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0693, "shots_on_target": 0.2753, "total_shots": 0.8556, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 75.84, "total_pass": 39.2723, "accurate_pass": 34.3338, "duels_won": 4.717, "total_long_balls": 1.4475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7719, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7854, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5483, "crosses_total": 1.1225, "crosses_accurate": 0.3734, "touches": 51.4353, "possession_lost": 8.5811, "dispossessed": 1.5154, "duels_lost": 4.6853, "aerial_won": 0.6516, "aerial_lost": 0.6686, "interceptions": 0.5468, "tackles_won": 0.7536, "tackles": 1.6237, "clearances": 0.4641, "total_contest": 1.1128, "won_contest": 0.5818, "challenges_lost": 0.8036, "fouls": 1.4182, "fouls_drawn": 1.9782, "blocks": 0.3186, "big_chances_created": 0.0861, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0938, "ball_carries": 14.3783, "total_progression": 33.0165, "progressive_carries": 1.0436, "shots_off_target": 0.5878 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0241, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8427, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.93, "after": 1.9782 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.0878, "after": 1.1225 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3978, "after": 1.4182 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2613, "after": 0.2753 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8491, "after": 0.8556 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0548, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "assists": 0.102, "assist_rate": 0.102, "expected_goals": 0.0763, "goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0693, "shots_on_target": 0.2753, "total_shots": 0.8631, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 75.84, "total_pass": 39.2723, "accurate_pass": 34.3338, "duels_won": 4.717, "total_long_balls": 1.4475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7719, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7854, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5483, "crosses_total": 1.1225, "crosses_accurate": 0.3734, "touches": 51.4353, "possession_lost": 8.5811, "dispossessed": 1.5154, "duels_lost": 4.6853, "aerial_won": 0.6516, "aerial_lost": 0.6686, "interceptions": 0.5468, "tackles_won": 0.7536, "tackles": 1.6237, "clearances": 0.4641, "total_contest": 1.1128, "won_contest": 0.5818, "challenges_lost": 0.8036, "fouls": 1.4182, "fouls_drawn": 1.9782, "blocks": 0.3186, "big_chances_created": 0.0861, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0938, "ball_carries": 14.3783, "total_progression": 33.0165, "progressive_carries": 1.0436, "shots_off_target": 0.5878 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0548, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "assists": 0.102, "assist_rate": 0.102, "expected_goals": 0.0737, "goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.067, "shots_on_target": 0.2661, "total_shots": 0.8342, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 75.84, "total_pass": 39.2723, "accurate_pass": 34.3338, "duels_won": 4.717, "total_long_balls": 1.4475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7719, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7854, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5483, "crosses_total": 1.1225, "crosses_accurate": 0.3734, "touches": 51.4353, "possession_lost": 8.5811, "dispossessed": 1.5154, "duels_lost": 4.6853, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6686, "interceptions": 0.5468, "tackles_won": 0.7536, "tackles": 1.6237, "clearances": 0.4641, "total_contest": 1.1128, "won_contest": 0.5818, "challenges_lost": 0.8036, "fouls": 1.4182, "fouls_drawn": 1.9782, "blocks": 0.3186, "big_chances_created": 0.0861, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0907, "ball_carries": 14.3783, "total_progression": 33.0165, "progressive_carries": 1.0436, "shots_off_target": 0.5681, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9665, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9665, "skill_edge": -0.0108, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4615, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Marc Roca", "market_value": 4200000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4615 } ], "xg_override": 0.0737 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6516, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8631, "after": 0.8342 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5878, "after": 0.5681 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2753, "after": 0.2661 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0548, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "assist_rate": 0.102, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0737, "goal_rate": 0.067, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2661, "total_shots": 0.8342, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 75.84, "total_pass": 39.2723, "accurate_pass": 34.3338, "duels_won": 4.717, "total_long_balls": 1.4475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7719, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7854, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5483, "crosses_total": 1.1225, "crosses_accurate": 0.3734, "touches": 51.4353, "possession_lost": 8.5811, "dispossessed": 1.5154, "duels_lost": 4.6853, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6686, "interceptions": 0.5468, "tackles_won": 0.7536, "tackles": 1.6237, "clearances": 0.4641, "total_contest": 1.1128, "won_contest": 0.5818, "challenges_lost": 0.8036, "fouls": 1.4182, "fouls_drawn": 1.9782, "blocks": 0.3186, "big_chances_created": 0.0861, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0907, "ball_carries": 14.3783, "total_progression": 33.0165, "progressive_carries": 1.0436, "shots_off_target": 0.5681, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9665, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 0.9357, xG scale 1.6822, xA scale 1.6822, team xA 1.04 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0548, "expected_assists": 0.1529, "assist_rate": 0.102, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.124, "goal_rate": 0.067, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2661, "total_shots": 0.8342, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 75.84, "total_pass": 39.2723, "accurate_pass": 34.3338, "duels_won": 4.717, "total_long_balls": 1.4475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7719, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7854, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5483, "crosses_total": 1.1225, "crosses_accurate": 0.3734, "touches": 51.4353, "possession_lost": 8.5811, "dispossessed": 1.5154, "duels_lost": 4.6853, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6686, "interceptions": 0.5468, "tackles_won": 0.7536, "tackles": 1.6237, "clearances": 0.4641, "total_contest": 1.1128, "won_contest": 0.5818, "challenges_lost": 0.8036, "fouls": 1.4182, "fouls_drawn": 1.9782, "blocks": 0.3186, "big_chances_created": 0.0861, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1526, "ball_carries": 14.3783, "total_progression": 33.0165, "progressive_carries": 1.0436, "shots_off_target": 0.5681, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9665, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9458, "creation_factor": 1.0788 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.574, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9357, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6189, "team_expected_assists": 1.0411, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6615, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6822, "xa_scale": 1.6822, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0737, "after": 0.124 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0909, "after": 0.1529 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.3186, "big_chances_created": 0.0861, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1526, "ball_carries": 14.3783, "total_progression": 33.0165, "progressive_carries": 1.0436, "shots_off_target": 0.5681, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9665, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9458, "creation_factor": 1.0788, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4307, "fifa_rank": 4251.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0548, "expected_assists": 0.1529, "assist_rate": 0.102, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.124, "goal_rate": 0.067, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2661, "total_shots": 0.8342, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 75.84, "total_pass": 39.2723, "accurate_pass": 34.3338, "duels_won": 4.717, "total_long_balls": 1.4475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7719, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7854, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5483, "crosses_total": 1.1225, "crosses_accurate": 0.3734, "touches": 51.4353, "possession_lost": 8.5811, "dispossessed": 1.5154, "duels_lost": 4.6853, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6686, "interceptions": 0.5468, "tackles_won": 0.7536, "tackles": 1.6237, "clearances": 0.4641, "total_contest": 1.1128, "won_contest": 0.5818, "challenges_lost": 0.8036, "fouls": 1.4182, "fouls_drawn": 1.9782, "blocks": 0.3186, "big_chances_created": 0.0861, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1526, "ball_carries": 14.3783, "total_progression": 33.0165, "progressive_carries": 1.0436, "shots_off_target": 0.5681, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9665, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1166, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9458, "creation_factor": 1.0788, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1166, "goal_rate": 0.067, "scorer_weight": 0.1173, "squad_weight_total": 1.7598, "weight_share": 0.0666, "finishing_factor": 0.9458, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.6164, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6164, "runner_up": "Ali Houary", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2866 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ali Houary", "weight": 0.2866, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2866, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2805 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0548, "expected_assists": 0.1529, "assist_rate": 0.102, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.124, "goal_rate": 0.067, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2661, 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"model_output": 0.6083, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.189 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0562 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0516 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0324 } ], "others": -0.0706, "total": 0.6083, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.24159 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.072475 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071051 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.069972 }, { "name": "touches_p90", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9940, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3739, "goals": 0.4125, "goal_rate": 0.4125, "shots_on_target": 1.0506, "total_shots": 2.1609, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "key_pass": 0.6046, "rating": 6.7951, "minutes": 72.55, "total_pass": 17.1689, "accurate_pass": 11.6394, "duels_won": 5.8181, "total_long_balls": 0.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0773, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5292, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.0334, "possession_lost": 11.4492, "dispossessed": 1.6923, "duels_lost": 8.2704, "aerial_lost": 3.7619, "total_contest": 2.0647, "won_contest": 0.768, "ball_recovery": 1.5439, "challenges_lost": 0.6632, "fouls": 1.0612, "fouls_drawn": 1.354, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1843, "tackles_won": 0.8152, 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0538 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0167 } ], "others": -0.0324, "total": 6.89, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053791 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.035915 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.023595 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019117 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.01675 } ], "others_margin": -0.032501 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", 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0.4961, "tackles": 1.0168, "clearances": 0.1394, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4197, "xgot": 0.1269, "offsides": 0.2269, "ball_carries": 12.4907, "total_progression": 13.85, "progressive_carries": 0.6051, "shots_off_target": 0.828 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 620000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9899, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0455)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1374, "goals": 0.2254, "goal_rate": 0.2254, "shots_on_target": 0.5898, "total_shots": 1.4285, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "key_pass": 1.0904, "rating": 6.89, "minutes": 66.91, "total_pass": 28.5966, "accurate_pass": 23.2106, "duels_won": 2.8232, "total_long_balls": 1.4991, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4063, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8032, "crosses_total": 0.4328, 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"numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fran García", "opponent_faced": "Fran García", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fran García", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9919, "skill_edge": -0.0375, "height_edge": 0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.5208, "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Fran García", "market_value": 6900000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.5208 } ], "xg_override": 0.1363 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4285, "after": 1.4169 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.828, "after": 0.8213 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1363, "goal_rate": 0.2236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.585, "total_shots": 1.4169, "expected_assists": 0.0701, "key_pass": 1.0904, "rating": 6.89, "minutes": 66.91, "total_pass": 28.5966, "accurate_pass": 23.2106, "duels_won": 2.8232, "total_long_balls": 1.4991, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4063, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8032, "crosses_total": 0.4328, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.0211, "possession_lost": 12.2282, "dispossessed": 2.3595, "duels_lost": 6.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.1928, "total_contest": 3.0656, "won_contest": 1.2116, "ball_recovery": 3.239, "challenges_lost": 0.5456, "fouls": 1.5519, "fouls_drawn": 0.5837, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3891, "tackles_won": 0.4896, "tackles": 1.0168, "clearances": 0.1394, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4163, "xgot": 0.1259, 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"shots_on_target": 0.585, "total_shots": 1.4169, "expected_assists": 0.1179, "key_pass": 1.0904, "rating": 6.89, "minutes": 66.91, "total_pass": 28.5966, "accurate_pass": 23.2106, "duels_won": 2.8232, "total_long_balls": 1.4991, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4063, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8032, "crosses_total": 0.4328, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.0211, "possession_lost": 12.2282, "dispossessed": 2.3595, "duels_lost": 6.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.1928, "total_contest": 3.0656, "won_contest": 1.2116, "ball_recovery": 3.239, "challenges_lost": 0.5456, "fouls": 1.5519, "fouls_drawn": 0.5837, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3891, "tackles_won": 0.4896, "tackles": 1.0168, "clearances": 0.1394, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4163, "xgot": 0.2118, "offsides": 0.2327, "ball_carries": 12.4907, "total_progression": 13.85, "progressive_carries": 0.6051, "shots_off_target": 0.8213, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9919, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fran García", "opponent_faced": "Fran García", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.574, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9357, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6189, "team_expected_assists": 1.0411, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6615, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6822, "xa_scale": 1.6822, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1363, "after": 0.2293 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0701, "after": 0.1179 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.2118, "offsides": 0.2327, "ball_carries": 12.4907, "total_progression": 13.85, "progressive_carries": 0.6051, "shots_off_target": 0.8213, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9919, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fran García", "opponent_faced": "Fran García", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 7867, "fifa_rank": 11799.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 65.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2293, "goal_rate": 0.2236, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.585, "total_shots": 1.4169, "expected_assists": 0.1179, "key_pass": 1.0904, "rating": 6.89, "minutes": 66.91, "total_pass": 28.5966, "accurate_pass": 23.2106, "duels_won": 2.8232, "total_long_balls": 1.4991, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4063, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8032, "crosses_total": 0.4328, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.0211, "possession_lost": 12.2282, "dispossessed": 2.3595, "duels_lost": 6.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.1928, "total_contest": 3.0656, "won_contest": 1.2116, "ball_recovery": 3.239, "challenges_lost": 0.5456, "fouls": 1.5519, "fouls_drawn": 0.5837, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3891, "tackles_won": 0.4896, "tackles": 1.0168, "clearances": 0.1394, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4163, "xgot": 0.2118, "offsides": 0.2327, "ball_carries": 12.4907, "total_progression": 13.85, "progressive_carries": 0.6051, "shots_off_target": 0.8213, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9919, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fran García", "opponent_faced": "Fran García", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2049, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2049, "goal_rate": 0.2236, "scorer_weight": 0.2866, "squad_weight_total": 1.7598, "weight_share": 0.1629, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.6164, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6164, "runner_up": "Ali Houary", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2866 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ali Houary", "weight": 0.2866, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2866, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2805 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2293, "goal_rate": 0.2236, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.585, "total_shots": 1.4169, "expected_assists": 0.1179, "key_pass": 1.0904, "rating": 6.89, "minutes": 66.91, "total_pass": 28.5966, "accurate_pass": 23.2106, "duels_won": 2.8232, "total_long_balls": 1.4991, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4063, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8032, "crosses_total": 0.4328, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.0211, "possession_lost": 12.2282, "dispossessed": 2.3595, "duels_lost": 6.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.1928, "total_contest": 3.0656, "won_contest": 1.2116, "ball_recovery": 3.239, "challenges_lost": 0.5456, "fouls": 1.5519, "fouls_drawn": 0.5837, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3891, "tackles_won": 0.4896, "tackles": 1.0168, "clearances": 0.1394, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4163, "xgot": 0.2118, "offsides": 0.2327, "ball_carries": 12.4907, "total_progression": 13.85, "progressive_carries": 0.6051, "shots_off_target": 0.8213, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9919, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", 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"ranking": 337 }, { "player_name": "Steven Benda", "ranking": 338 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Elche", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€1,300,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { 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"season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083401.0, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083306.0, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2443, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, 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4398, "combined_rank_score": 2419.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 575.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.804, "sofascore_appearances": 25.0, "fifa_rank": 4263.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7027, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Martim Neto", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marc Guiu", "ranking": 4393 }, { "player_name": "Emanuel Coronel", "ranking": 4394 }, { "player_name": "Joe Worrall", "ranking": 4395 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahim Osman", "ranking": 4396 }, { "player_name": "Karl Edouard Etta Eyong", "ranking": 4397 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Embarba", "ranking": 4399 }, { "player_name": "Justo Giani", "ranking": 4400 }, { "player_name": "Francés", "ranking": 4401 }, { "player_name": "Florin Tănase", "ranking": 4402 }, { "player_name": "Víctor García", "ranking": 4403 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", 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empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 27.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5473, "expected_assists": 0.046, "assists": 0.0632, "assist_rate": 0.0632, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "goals": 0.0431, "goal_rate": 0.0431, "shots_on_target": 0.2091, "total_shots": 0.4191, "rating": 6.7027, "minutes": 23.99, "total_pass": 12.13, "accurate_pass": 10.3207, "duels_won": 1.2539, "total_long_balls": 0.5355, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3436, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6623, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7896, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6584, "crosses_total": 0.6088, "crosses_accurate": 0.124, "touches": 16.6919, "possession_lost": 3.4267, "dispossessed": 0.2543, "duels_lost": 0.9526, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1239, "interceptions": 0.0381, "tackles_won": 0.2385, "tackles": 0.479, "clearances": 0.143, "total_contest": 0.9249, "won_contest": 0.5733, "challenges_lost": 0.1058, "fouls": 0.1169, "fouls_drawn": 0.2016, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0789, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.035, "ball_carries": 5.6083, "total_progression": 25.2004, "progressive_carries": 0.8526, "shots_off_target": 0.21 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:05:50.765150+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 905, "rows": 25067 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1508, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1282, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.109, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.5617, "creative_index": 0.2847, "expectedGoals": 0.0371, "expectedAssists": 0.0567, "keyPass": 0.6265 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5473223328590393, "model_output": 0.5473, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1373 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0712 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0516 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0289 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8902, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.386 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0574, "total": 0.5473, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.116298, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.568489 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.068712 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.041098 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.031038 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.03006 } ], "others_margin": 0.110661 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04601136967539787, "model_output": 0.046, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1181 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1136 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1034 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0572 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0473 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0847, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0023 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0015 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": 0.0023, "total": 0.046, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.468924, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.626235 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.092695 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053124 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.034414 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.030887 } ], "others_margin": 0.052335 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06316259503364563, "model_output": 0.0632, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0445 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0324 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0293 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0018, "total": 0.0632, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463472, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.261689 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.085803 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.070772 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.061626 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.054182 } ], "others_margin": -0.029297 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03979310020804405, "model_output": 0.0398, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0756 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0918, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0038 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0093, "total": 0.0398, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.579241 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.15245 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.088613 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.076665 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.057844 } ], "others_margin": -0.211843 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04308466985821724, "model_output": 0.0431, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0045 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 0.0431, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.572904 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.149646 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.092517 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.069518 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.043549 } ], "others_margin": -0.043102 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.20908565819263458, "model_output": 0.2091, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1233 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.006 } ], "others": 0.0267, "total": 0.2091, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.490771 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.213506 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.101767 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.079699 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032098 } ], "others_margin": 0.135984 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.41908347606658936, "model_output": 0.4191, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4103 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2338 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0168 } ], "others": -0.0135, "total": 0.4191, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.410258 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.233775 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.051099 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.02393 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.01684 } ], "others_margin": -0.013688 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.702676296234131, "model_output": 6.7027, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0753 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0156, "total": 6.7027, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075346 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03331 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027774 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009033 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.00632 } ], "others_margin": -0.015587 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.447)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5461, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "assists": 0.063, "assist_rate": 0.063, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "goals": 0.043, "goal_rate": 0.043, "shots_on_target": 0.2086, "total_shots": 0.4181, "rating": 6.7027, "minutes": 23.99, "total_pass": 12.1021, "accurate_pass": 10.297, "duels_won": 1.251, "total_long_balls": 0.5343, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3327, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6562, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6408, "crosses_total": 0.6074, "crosses_accurate": 0.1237, "touches": 16.6535, "possession_lost": 3.4188, "dispossessed": 0.2537, "duels_lost": 0.9504, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1236, "interceptions": 0.038, "tackles_won": 0.238, "tackles": 0.4779, "clearances": 0.1427, "total_contest": 0.9228, "won_contest": 0.572, "challenges_lost": 0.1056, "fouls": 0.1166, "fouls_drawn": 0.2011, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0787, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 5.5954, "total_progression": 25.1424, "progressive_carries": 0.8506, "shots_off_target": 0.2095 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3800000, "quality_factor": 0.4474, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0059)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5461, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "goals": 0.0427, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "shots_on_target": 0.2074, "total_shots": 0.4173, "rating": 6.7027, "minutes": 23.99, "total_pass": 12.1021, "accurate_pass": 10.297, "duels_won": 1.251, "total_long_balls": 0.5343, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3428, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3327, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6562, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6408, "crosses_total": 0.607, "crosses_accurate": 0.1237, "touches": 16.6535, "possession_lost": 3.4188, "dispossessed": 0.2537, "duels_lost": 0.9504, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1236, "interceptions": 0.0393, "tackles_won": 0.2366, "tackles": 0.4779, "clearances": 0.1427, "total_contest": 0.9228, "won_contest": 0.572, "challenges_lost": 0.1056, "fouls": 0.1175, "fouls_drawn": 0.2015, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0787, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 5.5954, "total_progression": 25.1424, "progressive_carries": 0.8506, "shots_off_target": 0.2095 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0059, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2666, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.0 to 24.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "assists": 0.0646, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "expected_goals": 0.041, "goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.0441, "shots_on_target": 0.2141, "total_shots": 0.4307, "rating": 6.7027, "minutes": 24.76, "total_pass": 12.4905, "accurate_pass": 10.6275, "duels_won": 1.2912, "total_long_balls": 0.5514, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3538, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7415, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0509, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.886, "crosses_total": 0.6265, "crosses_accurate": 0.1277, "touches": 17.188, "possession_lost": 3.5285, "dispossessed": 0.2537, "duels_lost": 0.9809, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1236, "interceptions": 0.0406, "tackles_won": 0.2442, "tackles": 0.4932, "clearances": 0.1473, "total_contest": 0.9524, "won_contest": 0.5904, "challenges_lost": 0.1056, "fouls": 0.1213, "fouls_drawn": 0.208, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0812, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.036, "ball_carries": 5.775, "total_progression": 25.9494, "progressive_carries": 0.8779, "shots_off_target": 0.2162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.76, "projection_minutes": 23.99, "minutes_scale": 1.0321, "appearance_probability": 0.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "assists": 0.0646, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "expected_goals": 0.041, "goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.0441, "shots_on_target": 0.2141, "total_shots": 0.4307, "rating": 6.7027, "minutes": 24.76, "total_pass": 12.4905, "accurate_pass": 10.6275, "duels_won": 1.2912, "total_long_balls": 0.5514, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3538, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7415, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0509, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.886, "crosses_total": 0.6265, "crosses_accurate": 0.1277, "touches": 17.188, "possession_lost": 3.5285, "dispossessed": 0.2537, "duels_lost": 0.9809, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1236, "interceptions": 0.0406, "tackles_won": 0.2442, "tackles": 0.4932, "clearances": 0.1473, "total_contest": 0.9524, "won_contest": 0.5904, "challenges_lost": 0.1056, "fouls": 0.1213, "fouls_drawn": 0.208, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0812, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.036, "ball_carries": 5.775, "total_progression": 25.9494, "progressive_carries": 0.8779, "shots_off_target": 0.2162, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "assists": 0, 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"name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3163 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1895 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.047 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0287 } ], "others": -0.087, "total": 0.2768, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.316325 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.189522 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.047049 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.039566 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.028719 } ], "others_margin": -0.086931 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.730484962463379, "model_output": 6.7305, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0736 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0124, "total": 6.7305, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073602 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024271 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021779 }, { "name": 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0.1742, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.307, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.365, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.307, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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-0.02468 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.682696342468262, "model_output": 6.6827, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0615 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 6.6827, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061508 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018651 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011193 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010162 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.008575 } ], "others_margin": -0.017852 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.2586, "total_shots": 0.6917, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "key_pass": 0.4725, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 20.91, "total_pass": 9.9471, "accurate_pass": 7.4034, "duels_won": 0.3005, "total_long_balls": 0.3675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2415, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7137, "crosses_total": 0.2966, "crosses_accurate": 0.1483, "touches": 14.5043, "possession_lost": 3.9835, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.1177, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3005, "won_contest": 0.1745, "ball_recovery": 0.5901, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.3675, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.2415, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "interceptions": 0.1072, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2415, "blocks": 0.1796, "big_chances_created": 0.2415, "big_chances_missed": 0.1745, "xgot": 0.0361, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4566, "total_progression": 36.8125, "progressive_carries": 1.1064, "shots_off_target": 0.4331 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0159)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.0578, "shots_on_target": 0.2615, "total_shots": 0.6982, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "key_pass": 0.4725, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 20.91, "total_pass": 9.9471, "accurate_pass": 7.4034, "duels_won": 0.3005, "total_long_balls": 0.3675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2415, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7137, "crosses_total": 0.302, "crosses_accurate": 0.1483, "touches": 14.5043, "possession_lost": 3.9835, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.1177, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3005, "won_contest": 0.1745, "ball_recovery": 0.5901, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.3717, "fouls_drawn": 0.0034, "assists": 0.2377, "assist_rate": 0.2377, "interceptions": 0.1089, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2415, "blocks": 0.1796, "big_chances_created": 0.2415, "big_chances_missed": 0.1745, "xgot": 0.0361, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4566, "total_progression": 36.8125, "progressive_carries": 1.1064, "shots_off_target": 0.4331 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0159, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2323, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6917, "after": 0.6982 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.2966, "after": 0.302 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.9 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goals": 0.073, "goal_rate": 0.073, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0562, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assists": 0.3001, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.0456, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 20.91, "minutes_scale": 1.2626, "appearance_probability": 0.534 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goals": 0.073, "goal_rate": 0.073, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0562, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assists": 0.3001, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.0456, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0562, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.0456, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.365, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 0.9357, xG scale 1.6822, xA scale 1.6822, team xA 1.04 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.041, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.365, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9927, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.574, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9357, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6189, "team_expected_assists": 1.0411, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6615, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6822, "xa_scale": 1.6822, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.534 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0739, "after": 0.0664 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0562, "after": 0.0505 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.041, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.365, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9927, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3732, "fifa_rank": 2691.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.041, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.365, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0624, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9927, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0624, "goal_rate": 0.073, "scorer_weight": 0.0659, "squad_weight_total": 1.7598, "weight_share": 0.0375, "finishing_factor": 0.9927, "appearance_weight": 0.534, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.6164, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6164, "runner_up": "Ali Houary", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2866 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ali Houary", "weight": 0.2866, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2866, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2805 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0482, "finishing_factor": 0.9927, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0482, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "provider_weight": 0.0631, "squad_weight_total": 1.0833, "weight_share": 0.0583, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.534, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roy Revivo", "weight": 0.2615, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2615, "runner_up": "Gonzalo Villar", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1649 } ] } } ] }, "Ezequiel Ponce": { "player_id": 356444, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 178, "market_value": 3600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.118, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6108, "minutes": 30, 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"ranking": 4340 }, { "player_name": "Akor Jerome Adams", "ranking": 4341 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Anass Salah-Eddine", "ranking": 4343 }, { "player_name": "Fabio Miretti", "ranking": 4344 }, { "player_name": "Tommaso Baldanzi", "ranking": 4345 }, { "player_name": "Álex Valle", "ranking": 4346 }, { "player_name": "Jack Taylor", "ranking": 4347 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.445, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2516 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": -0.0783, "total": 0.2534, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.452053 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079071 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.074456 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071437 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.057713 } ], "others_margin": -0.269354 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6108222007751465, "model_output": 6.6108, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0592 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0588, "total": 6.6108, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059186 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014643 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011038 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010179 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008671 } ], "others_margin": -0.058796 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0874, "goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "shots_on_target": 0.2848, "total_shots": 0.639, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "key_pass": 0.2506, "rating": 6.6108, "minutes": 26.99, "total_pass": 8.0182, "accurate_pass": 6.9228, "duels_won": 3.1284, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4571, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8437, "possession_lost": 3.0728, "dispossessed": 0.7687, "duels_lost": 2.0841, "aerial_lost": 0.9887, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2777, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6533, "fouls_drawn": 0.882, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2777, "tackles_won": 0.2777, "tackles": 0.6044, "clearances": 0.3843, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2777, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0158, "offsides": 0.3267, "ball_carries": 2.4261, "total_progression": 3.7105, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3542 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3600000, "quality_factor": 0.4449, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0190)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0874, "goals": 0.0998, "goal_rate": 0.0998, "shots_on_target": 0.287, "total_shots": 0.6422, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "key_pass": 0.2506, "rating": 6.6108, "minutes": 26.99, "total_pass": 8.0182, "accurate_pass": 6.9228, "duels_won": 3.1284, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4571, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8437, "possession_lost": 3.0728, "dispossessed": 0.7687, "duels_lost": 2.0841, "aerial_lost": 0.9887, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2777, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6572, "fouls_drawn": 0.8897, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2806, "tackles_won": 0.2806, "tackles": 0.6044, "clearances": 0.3843, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2777, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0158, "offsides": 0.3286, "ball_carries": 2.4261, "total_progression": 3.7105, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3542 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.019, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2999, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.882, "after": 0.8897 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.0 to 30.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0974, "goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "shots_on_target": 0.32, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "key_pass": 0.2794, "rating": 6.6108, "minutes": 30.09, "total_pass": 8.9391, "accurate_pass": 7.7179, "duels_won": 3.4877, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8542, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4338, "possession_lost": 3.4257, "dispossessed": 0.7687, "duels_lost": 2.3235, "aerial_lost": 0.9887, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3096, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9919, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3128, "tackles_won": 0.3128, "tackles": 0.6738, "clearances": 0.4284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3096, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0176, "offsides": 0.3286, "ball_carries": 2.7048, "total_progression": 4.1367, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3949, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.72, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 30.09, "projection_minutes": 26.99, "minutes_scale": 1.1149, "appearance_probability": 0.72 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0974, "goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "shots_on_target": 0.32, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "key_pass": 0.2794, "rating": 6.6108, "minutes": 30.09, "total_pass": 8.9391, "accurate_pass": 7.7179, "duels_won": 3.4877, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8542, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4338, "possession_lost": 3.4257, "dispossessed": 0.7687, "duels_lost": 2.3235, "aerial_lost": 0.9887, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3096, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9919, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3128, "tackles_won": 0.3128, "tackles": 0.6738, "clearances": 0.4284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3096, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0176, "offsides": 0.3286, "ball_carries": 2.7048, "total_progression": 4.1367, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3949, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.72, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0974, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.32, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "key_pass": 0.2794, "rating": 6.6108, "minutes": 30.09, "total_pass": 8.9391, "accurate_pass": 7.7179, "duels_won": 3.4877, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8542, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4338, "possession_lost": 3.4257, "dispossessed": 0.7687, "duels_lost": 2.3235, "aerial_lost": 0.9887, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3096, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9919, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3128, "tackles_won": 0.3128, "tackles": 0.6738, "clearances": 0.4284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3096, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0176, "offsides": 0.3286, "ball_carries": 2.7048, "total_progression": 4.1367, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3949, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.72, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.365, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 0.9357, xG scale 1.6822, xA scale 1.6822, team xA 1.04 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.118, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.32, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "key_pass": 0.2794, "rating": 6.6108, "minutes": 30.09, "total_pass": 8.9391, "accurate_pass": 7.7179, "duels_won": 3.4877, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8542, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4338, "possession_lost": 3.4257, "dispossessed": 0.7687, "duels_lost": 2.3235, "aerial_lost": 0.9887, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3096, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9919, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3128, "tackles_won": 0.3128, "tackles": 0.6738, "clearances": 0.4284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3096, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "offsides": 0.3286, "ball_carries": 2.7048, "total_progression": 4.1367, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3949, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.72, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.365, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0943, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.574, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9357, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6189, "team_expected_assists": 1.0411, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6615, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6822, "xa_scale": 1.6822, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.72 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0974, "after": 0.118 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.118, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.32, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "key_pass": 0.2794, "rating": 6.6108, "minutes": 30.09, "total_pass": 8.9391, "accurate_pass": 7.7179, "duels_won": 3.4877, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8542, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4338, "possession_lost": 3.4257, "dispossessed": 0.7687, "duels_lost": 2.3235, "aerial_lost": 0.9887, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3096, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9919, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3128, "tackles_won": 0.3128, "tackles": 0.6738, "clearances": 0.4284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3096, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "offsides": 0.3286, "ball_carries": 2.7048, "total_progression": 4.1367, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3949, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.72, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.365, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0943, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4342, "fifa_rank": 4203.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.118, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.32, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "key_pass": 0.2794, "rating": 6.6108, "minutes": 30.09, "total_pass": 8.9391, "accurate_pass": 7.7179, "duels_won": 3.4877, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8542, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4338, "possession_lost": 3.4257, "dispossessed": 0.7687, "duels_lost": 2.3235, "aerial_lost": 0.9887, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3096, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9919, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3128, "tackles_won": 0.3128, "tackles": 0.6738, "clearances": 0.4284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3096, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "offsides": 0.3286, "ball_carries": 2.7048, "total_progression": 4.1367, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3949, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.72, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.365, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1088, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0943, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1088, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "scorer_weight": 0.1291, "squad_weight_total": 1.7598, "weight_share": 0.0734, "finishing_factor": 1.0943, "appearance_weight": 0.72, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.6164, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6164, "runner_up": "Ali Houary", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2866 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ali Houary", "weight": 0.2866, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2866, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2805 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.118, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.32, "total_shots": 0.716, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "key_pass": 0.2794, "rating": 6.6108, "minutes": 30.09, "total_pass": 8.9391, "accurate_pass": 7.7179, "duels_won": 3.4877, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8542, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4338, "possession_lost": 3.4257, "dispossessed": 0.7687, "duels_lost": 2.3235, "aerial_lost": 0.9887, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3096, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7327, "fouls_drawn": 0.9919, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3128, "tackles_won": 0.3128, "tackles": 0.6738, "clearances": 0.4284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3096, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "offsides": 0.3286, "ball_carries": 2.7048, "total_progression": 4.1367, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3949, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.72, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.365, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1088, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0233, "finishing_factor": 1.0943, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.019, "squad_weight_total": 1.0833, "weight_share": 0.0175, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.72, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roy Revivo", "weight": 0.2615, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2615, "runner_up": "Gonzalo Villar", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1649 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Ezequiel Ponce": { "player_id": 356444, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 178, "market_value": 3600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.118, "goal_rate": 0.1113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6108, "minutes": 30, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, 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"contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0124 } ], "others": 0.0011, "total": 0.288, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.640773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.485119 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.070528 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.050643 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.045797 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.044176 } ], "others_margin": 0.004006 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6462827324867249, "model_output": 0.6463, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0526 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0309 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0307 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3756, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.519 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1036 }, { 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0137, "total": 0.0178, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.328671 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.107108 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.100858 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.095131 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.095085 } ], "others_margin": -0.566071 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2534295320510864, "model_output": 0.2534, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2516 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": -0.0783, "total": 0.2534, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.452053 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079071 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.074456 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071437 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.057713 } ], "others_margin": -0.269354 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6108222007751465, "model_output": 6.6108, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0592 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0588, "total": 6.6108, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059186 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014643 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011038 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010179 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008671 } ], "others_margin": -0.058796 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0874, "goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "shots_on_target": 0.2848, "total_shots": 0.639, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "key_pass": 0.2506, "rating": 6.6108, "minutes": 26.99, "total_pass": 8.0182, "accurate_pass": 6.9228, "duels_won": 3.1284, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4571, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8437, "possession_lost": 3.0728, "dispossessed": 0.7687, "duels_lost": 2.0841, "aerial_lost": 0.9887, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2777, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6533, "fouls_drawn": 0.882, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2777, "tackles_won": 0.2777, "tackles": 0.6044, "clearances": 0.3843, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2777, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0158, "offsides": 0.3267, "ball_carries": 2.4261, "total_progression": 3.7105, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3542 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3600000, "quality_factor": 0.4449, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0190)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0874, "goals": 0.0998, "goal_rate": 0.0998, "shots_on_target": 0.287, "total_shots": 0.6422, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "key_pass": 0.2506, "rating": 6.6108, "minutes": 26.99, "total_pass": 8.0182, "accurate_pass": 6.9228, "duels_won": 3.1284, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4571, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8437, "possession_lost": 3.0728, "dispossessed": 0.7687, "duels_lost": 2.0841, "aerial_lost": 0.9887, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2777, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6572, "fouls_drawn": 0.8897, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2806, "tackles_won": 0.2806, "tackles": 0.6044, "clearances": 0.3843, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2777, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0158, "offsides": 0.3286, "ball_carries": 2.4261, "total_progression": 3.7105, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3542 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.019, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2999, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.882, "after": 0.8897 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.0 to 30.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 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}, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0218 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.4712, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.475141 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.078586 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.056818 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.047859 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.046209 } ], "others_margin": -0.02468 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.682696342468262, "model_output": 6.6827, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0615 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 6.6827, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061508 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018651 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011193 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010162 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.008575 } ], "others_margin": -0.017852 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.2586, "total_shots": 0.6917, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "key_pass": 0.4725, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 20.91, "total_pass": 9.9471, "accurate_pass": 7.4034, "duels_won": 0.3005, "total_long_balls": 0.3675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2415, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7137, "crosses_total": 0.2966, "crosses_accurate": 0.1483, "touches": 14.5043, "possession_lost": 3.9835, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.1177, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3005, "won_contest": 0.1745, "ball_recovery": 0.5901, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.3675, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.2415, "assist_rate": 0.2415, "interceptions": 0.1072, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2415, "blocks": 0.1796, "big_chances_created": 0.2415, "big_chances_missed": 0.1745, "xgot": 0.0361, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4566, "total_progression": 36.8125, "progressive_carries": 1.1064, "shots_off_target": 0.4331 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0159)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.0578, "shots_on_target": 0.2615, "total_shots": 0.6982, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "key_pass": 0.4725, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 20.91, "total_pass": 9.9471, "accurate_pass": 7.4034, "duels_won": 0.3005, "total_long_balls": 0.3675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2415, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7137, "crosses_total": 0.302, 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"description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.9 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goals": 0.073, "goal_rate": 0.073, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0562, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assists": 0.3001, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.0456, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 20.91, "minutes_scale": 1.2626, "appearance_probability": 0.534 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goals": 0.073, "goal_rate": 0.073, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0562, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, 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0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0562, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.0456, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.365, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 0.9357, xG scale 1.6822, xA scale 1.6822, team xA 1.04 = 0.66 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.3049, "big_chances_missed": 0.2203, "xgot": 0.041, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8893, "total_progression": 46.4778, "progressive_carries": 1.3969, "shots_off_target": 0.5468, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.365, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9927, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3732, "fifa_rank": 2691.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, "crosses_accurate": 0.1872, "touches": 18.3125, "possession_lost": 5.0294, "dispossessed": 0.1745, "duels_lost": 2.6737, "aerial_lost": 0.9748, "total_contest": 0.3794, "won_contest": 0.2203, "ball_recovery": 0.745, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 0.4693, "fouls_drawn": 0.0043, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1375, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3049, "blocks": 0.2268, 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"eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Fernando Niño", "weight": 0.6164, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6164, "runner_up": "Ali Houary", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2866 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ali Houary", "weight": 0.2866, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2866, "runner_up": "Germán Valera", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2805 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.073, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3302, "total_shots": 0.8815, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "key_pass": 0.5966, "rating": 6.6827, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 12.5587, "accurate_pass": 9.3472, "duels_won": 0.3794, "total_long_balls": 0.464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3049, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9513, "crosses_total": 0.3813, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0482, "finishing_factor": 0.9927, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0482, "assist_rate": 0.3001, "provider_weight": 0.0631, "squad_weight_total": 1.0833, "weight_share": 0.0583, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.534, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roy Revivo", "weight": 0.2615, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2615, "runner_up": "Gonzalo Villar", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1649 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.57, "expected_assists": 1.04, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 432, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } }, "Real Betis": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Álvaro Valles": { 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average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0003, quality 0.514)", "stats": { "saves": 3.376, "goals_prevented": 0.084, "rating": 7.222, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.1414, "accurate_pass": 19.8893, "total_long_balls": 11.9654, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8119, "touches": 39.4501, "clearances": 0.9927, "ball_recovery": 8.2575, "high_claims": 0.8306, "punches": 0.4896, "aerial_won": 0.5505, "sweeper_actions": 1.0837, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0509, "saves_inside_box": 2.8386, "possession_lost": 6.6966, "duels_won": 0.749, "duels_lost": 0.1562, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0225, "total_own_half_passes": 18.348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2371 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9300000, "quality_factor": 0.5142, "boost_factor": 1.0003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0148)", "stats": { "saves": 3.3754, "goals_prevented": 0.084, "rating": 7.222, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.1414, "accurate_pass": 19.8893, "total_long_balls": 11.9654, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8119, "touches": 39.4501, "clearances": 0.9927, "ball_recovery": 8.2575, "high_claims": 0.8306, "punches": 0.4896, "aerial_won": 0.5505, "sweeper_actions": 1.0837, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0509, "saves_inside_box": 2.8386, "possession_lost": 6.6966, "duels_won": 0.749, "duels_lost": 0.1562, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0222, "total_own_half_passes": 18.348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2371 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0148, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.3754, "goals_prevented": 0.084, "rating": 7.222, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.1414, "accurate_pass": 19.8893, "total_long_balls": 11.9654, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8119, "touches": 39.4501, "clearances": 0.9927, "ball_recovery": 8.2575, "high_claims": 0.8306, "punches": 0.4896, "aerial_won": 0.5505, "sweeper_actions": 1.0837, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0509, "saves_inside_box": 2.8386, "possession_lost": 6.6966, "duels_won": 0.749, "duels_lost": 0.1562, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0222, "total_own_half_passes": 18.348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2371 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.3754, "goals_prevented": 0.084, "rating": 7.222, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.1414, "accurate_pass": 19.8893, "total_long_balls": 11.9654, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8119, "touches": 39.4501, "clearances": 0.9927, "ball_recovery": 8.2575, "high_claims": 0.8306, "punches": 0.4896, "aerial_won": 0.5505, "sweeper_actions": 1.0837, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0509, "saves_inside_box": 2.8386, "possession_lost": 6.6966, "duels_won": 0.749, "duels_lost": 0.1562, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0222, "total_own_half_passes": 18.348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2371, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1709, "shots_faced": 11.1, "expected_saves": 2.71, "high_pressure_saves": 0.94, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Ali Houary", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Ali Houary", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.1709 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.3754, "goals_prevented": 0.084, "rating": 7.222, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.1414, "accurate_pass": 19.8893, "total_long_balls": 11.9654, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8119, "touches": 39.4501, "clearances": 0.9927, "ball_recovery": 8.2575, "high_claims": 0.8306, "punches": 0.4896, "aerial_won": 0.5505, "sweeper_actions": 1.0837, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0509, "saves_inside_box": 2.8386, "possession_lost": 6.6966, "duels_won": 0.749, "duels_lost": 0.1562, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0222, "total_own_half_passes": 18.348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2371, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1709, "shots_faced": 11.1, "expected_saves": 2.71, "high_pressure_saves": 0.94, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Ali Houary", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.0814, xG scale 1.3039, xA scale 1.1830, team xA 1.13 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.3754, "goals_prevented": 0.084, "rating": 7.222, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.1414, "accurate_pass": 19.8893, "total_long_balls": 11.9654, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8119, "touches": 39.4501, "clearances": 0.9927, "ball_recovery": 8.2575, "high_claims": 0.8306, "punches": 0.4896, "aerial_won": 0.5505, "sweeper_actions": 1.0837, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0509, "saves_inside_box": 2.8386, "possession_lost": 6.6966, "duels_won": 0.749, "duels_lost": 0.1562, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0222, "total_own_half_passes": 18.348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2371, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1709, "shots_faced": 15.0, "expected_saves": 3.68, "high_pressure_saves": 1.26, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Ali Houary", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0814, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9535, "team_expected_assists": 1.128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3039, "xa_scale": 1.183, "opponent_lambda": 1.574, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.1, "after": 15.0 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.71, "after": 3.68 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.94, "after": 1.26 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.3754, "goals_prevented": 0.084, "rating": 7.222, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.1414, "accurate_pass": 19.8893, "total_long_balls": 11.9654, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8119, "touches": 39.4501, "clearances": 0.9927, "ball_recovery": 8.2575, "high_claims": 0.8306, "punches": 0.4896, "aerial_won": 0.5505, "sweeper_actions": 1.0837, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0509, "saves_inside_box": 2.8386, "possession_lost": 6.6966, "duels_won": 0.749, "duels_lost": 0.1562, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0222, "total_own_half_passes": 18.348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2371, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1709, "shots_faced": 15.0, "expected_saves": 3.68, "high_pressure_saves": 1.26, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Ali Houary", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2143, "fifa_rank": 1567.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 3.3754, "goals_prevented": 0.084, "rating": 7.222, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.1414, "accurate_pass": 19.8893, "total_long_balls": 11.9654, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8119, "touches": 39.4501, "clearances": 0.9927, "ball_recovery": 8.2575, "high_claims": 0.8306, "punches": 0.4896, "aerial_won": 0.5505, "sweeper_actions": 1.0837, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0509, "saves_inside_box": 2.8386, "possession_lost": 6.6966, "duels_won": 0.749, "duels_lost": 0.1562, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0222, "total_own_half_passes": 18.348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2371, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1709, "shots_faced": 15.0, "expected_saves": 3.68, "high_pressure_saves": 1.26, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Ali Houary", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.5061, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.6056, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6056, "runner_up": "Isco", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1952 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.3754, "goals_prevented": 0.084, "rating": 7.222, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.1414, "accurate_pass": 19.8893, "total_long_balls": 11.9654, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8119, "touches": 39.4501, "clearances": 0.9927, "ball_recovery": 8.2575, "high_claims": 0.8306, "punches": 0.4896, "aerial_won": 0.5505, "sweeper_actions": 1.0837, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0509, "saves_inside_box": 2.8386, "possession_lost": 6.6966, "duels_won": 0.749, "duels_lost": 0.1562, "total_contest": 0.067, "won_contest": 0.067, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0222, "total_own_half_passes": 18.348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2371, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1709, "shots_faced": 15.0, "expected_saves": 3.68, "high_pressure_saves": 1.26, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Ali Houary", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.0036, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.2289, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2289, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1784, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Natan": { "player_id": 1015287, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 188, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9093, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 51, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 5.0521, "dispossessed": 0.177, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0807, "expected_assists": 0.0131, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0506, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0775, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.013, "finishing_factor": 1.0429, "creation_factor": 0.8183, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421087.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 50, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421079.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2112, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 60, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421054.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0507, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 46, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1107, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 59, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 89, "accurate_pass": 85, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2144, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 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"contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0158 } ], "others": -0.0164, "total": 0.5494, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061914 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.027197 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.017974 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016126 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.015835 } ], "others_margin": -0.016531 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.909327983856201, "model_output": 6.9093, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0364 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": 0.0089, "total": 6.9093, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.036418 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.035503 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.033644 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018119 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.014239 } ], "others_margin": 0.008865 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8458, "tackles": 1.1442, "tackles_won": 0.6913, "clearances": 5.2264, "aerial_won": 1.9313, "total_shots": 0.5534, "rating": 6.9093, "minutes": 89.36, "total_pass": 55.0429, "accurate_pass": 50.87, "duels_won": 3.6519, "total_long_balls": 4.1079, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8162, "total_own_half_passes": 36.5418, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.9005, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9696, "crosses_total": 0.0004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.055, "possession_lost": 5.0521, "dispossessed": 0.177, "duels_lost": 1.5976, "aerial_lost": 0.8277, "total_contest": 0.1736, "won_contest": 0.143, "ball_recovery": 2.5463, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.3261, "fouls_drawn": 0.5418, "blocks": 0.9802, "goals": 0.0673, 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"0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0133, "total": 6.7968, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014655 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.013558 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012971 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011621 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010421 } ], "others_margin": 0.013262 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9964, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2469, "tackles": 1.249, "tackles_won": 0.7347, "clearances": 5.4, "aerial_won": 1.5923, "total_shots": 0.3708, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1722, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9624, "fouls_drawn": 0.578, "blocks": 0.8091, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "shots_on_target": 0.1003, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.2704 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9964, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0077)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2719, "tackles": 1.249, "tackles_won": 0.729, "clearances": 5.4, "aerial_won": 1.5923, "total_shots": 0.3679, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, 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"assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "shots_on_target": 0.0995, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.2704 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2719, "tackles": 1.249, "tackles_won": 0.729, "clearances": 5.4, "aerial_won": 1.5923, "total_shots": 0.3699, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9619, "fouls_drawn": 0.5735, "blocks": 0.8091, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "shots_on_target": 0.0995, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.2704, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2719, "tackles": 1.249, "tackles_won": 0.729, "clearances": 5.4, "aerial_won": 1.5923, "total_shots": 0.3699, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9619, "fouls_drawn": 0.5735, "blocks": 0.8091, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "shots_on_target": 0.0995, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.2704, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.0814, xG scale 1.3039, xA scale 1.1830, team xA 1.13 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2719, "tackles": 1.249, "tackles_won": 0.729, "clearances": 5.4, "aerial_won": 1.5923, "total_shots": 0.3699, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9619, "fouls_drawn": 0.5735, "blocks": 0.8091, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "expected_assists": 0.004, "shots_on_target": 0.0995, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0412, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.2704, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9363 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0814, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9535, "team_expected_assists": 1.128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3039, "xa_scale": 1.183, "opponent_lambda": 1.574, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2719, "tackles": 1.249, "tackles_won": 0.729, "clearances": 5.4, "aerial_won": 1.5923, "total_shots": 0.3699, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9619, "fouls_drawn": 0.5735, "blocks": 0.8091, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "expected_assists": 0.004, "shots_on_target": 0.0995, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2719, "tackles": 1.249, "tackles_won": 0.729, "clearances": 5.4, "aerial_won": 1.5923, "total_shots": 0.3699, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9619, 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.453 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1064 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0976 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0765 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0474 } ], "others": -0.1245, "total": 0.6595, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.401579 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.123369 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113706 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.088008 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.058742 } ], "others_margin": -0.172817 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5254838466644287, "model_output": 0.5255, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0589 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0063, "total": 0.5255, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058921 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.025032 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.021943 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.013145 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.010912 } ], "others_margin": 0.006283 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.70961856842041, "model_output": 6.7096, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0476, "total": 6.7096, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.017642 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.014929 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014821 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.012175 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011907 } ], "others_margin": -0.047546 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9989, quality 0.485)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0537, "tackles": 2.2594, "tackles_won": 1.3205, "clearances": 2.1197, "aerial_won": 0.6588, "total_shots": 0.5249, "rating": 6.7096, "minutes": 88.95, "total_pass": 46.5072, "accurate_pass": 40.3877, "duels_won": 5.4599, "total_long_balls": 2.8224, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3693, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9757, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.417, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.4121, "crosses_total": 2.866, "crosses_accurate": 0.4497, "touches": 70.1339, "possession_lost": 11.9032, "dispossessed": 0.679, "duels_lost": 3.9237, "aerial_lost": 0.8799, "total_contest": 0.7191, "won_contest": 0.4495, "ball_recovery": 4.3781, "challenges_lost": 1.5222, "fouls": 0.5893, "fouls_drawn": 1.1303, "blocks": 0.2114, "goals": 0.0, 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{ "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5249, "after": 0.5148 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.0225, "after": 0.03 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1303, "after": 1.1244 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0572, "tackles": 2.2594, "tackles_won": 1.3189, "clearances": 2.1197, "aerial_won": 0.6588, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.7096, "minutes": 88.95, "total_pass": 46.5072, "accurate_pass": 40.3877, "duels_won": 5.4599, "total_long_balls": 2.8224, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3693, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9757, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.417, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.4121, "crosses_total": 2.898, "crosses_accurate": 0.4497, "touches": 70.1339, "possession_lost": 11.9032, "dispossessed": 0.679, "duels_lost": 3.9237, "aerial_lost": 0.8799, "total_contest": 0.7191, "won_contest": 0.4495, "ball_recovery": 4.3781, 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"Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ali Houary", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0572, "tackles": 2.2594, "tackles_won": 1.3189, "clearances": 2.1197, "aerial_won": 0.6588, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.7096, "minutes": 88.95, "total_pass": 46.5072, "accurate_pass": 40.3877, "duels_won": 5.4599, "total_long_balls": 2.8224, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3693, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9757, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.417, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.4121, "crosses_total": 2.898, "crosses_accurate": 0.4497, "touches": 70.1339, "possession_lost": 11.9032, "dispossessed": 0.679, "duels_lost": 3.9237, "aerial_lost": 0.8799, "total_contest": 0.7191, "won_contest": 0.4495, "ball_recovery": 4.3781, "challenges_lost": 1.5222, "fouls": 0.5938, "fouls_drawn": 1.1244, "blocks": 0.2114, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.03, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "expected_assists": 0.0472, "shots_on_target": 0.0188, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0073, "ball_carries": 18.1042, "total_progression": 89.1023, "progressive_carries": 2.1313, "key_pass": 0.4656, "shots_off_target": 0.5057, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.526, "opponent_faced": "Ali Houary", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.0814, xG scale 1.3039, xA scale 1.1830, team xA 1.13 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0572, "tackles": 2.2594, "tackles_won": 1.3189, "clearances": 2.1197, "aerial_won": 0.6588, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.7096, "minutes": 88.95, "total_pass": 46.5072, "accurate_pass": 40.3877, "duels_won": 5.4599, "total_long_balls": 2.8224, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3693, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9757, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.417, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.4121, "crosses_total": 2.898, "crosses_accurate": 0.4497, "touches": 70.1339, "possession_lost": 11.9032, "dispossessed": 0.679, "duels_lost": 3.9237, "aerial_lost": 0.8799, "total_contest": 0.7191, "won_contest": 0.4495, "ball_recovery": 4.3781, "challenges_lost": 1.5222, "fouls": 0.5938, "fouls_drawn": 1.1244, "blocks": 0.2114, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.03, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "shots_on_target": 0.0188, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0095, "ball_carries": 18.1042, "total_progression": 89.1023, "progressive_carries": 2.1313, "key_pass": 0.4656, "shots_off_target": 0.5057, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.526, "opponent_faced": "Ali Houary", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.823 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0814, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9535, "team_expected_assists": 1.128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3039, "xa_scale": 1.183, "opponent_lambda": 1.574, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0472, "after": 0.0558 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0873, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-08", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0742, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-10", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0631, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-06", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0536, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2025-10-27", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0456, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2025-10-18", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0387, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 14.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.1825, "aerialWon": 0.9195, "totalClearance_p90": 3.5463, "totalTackle": 1.8977, "totalTackle_p90": 2.3387 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.036210060119629, "model_output": 1.0362, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1213 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": 0.0549, "total": 1.0362, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.137969, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130351 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.026094 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.015863 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.014268 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.013186 } ], "others_margin": 0.054501 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 2.0533251762390137, "model_output": 2.0533, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1905 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0935 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0888 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.079 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0644 } ], "others": 0.1496, "total": 2.0533, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128662 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.057586 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.051737 }, { "name": 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"totalTackle", "margin": 0.073748 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.053925 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.051614 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.028616 } ], "others_margin": 0.078361 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.4921224117279053, "model_output": 2.4921, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4602 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.4071 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2934 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2196 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1888 } ], "others": -0.2749, "total": 2.4921, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126396 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.110962 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.08836 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.071647 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.06599 } ], "others_margin": -0.104686 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.0286118984222412, "model_output": 1.0286, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2395 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.146 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0718 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0485 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0326 } ], "others": -0.0947, "total": 1.0286, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.192203 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121498 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.057941 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.041077 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.028576 } ], "others_margin": -0.088085 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.33417809009552, "model_output": 0.3342, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1186 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0767, "total": 0.3342, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.118643 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.046509 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018206 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.010169 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009794 } ], "others_margin": -0.076693 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.753245830535889, "model_output": 6.7532, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0057, "total": 6.7532, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016229 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016032 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008691 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.008085 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007109 } ], "others_margin": -0.005561 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 14, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9951, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0311, "tackles": 2.0433, "tackles_won": 1.2813, "clearances": 2.4799, "aerial_won": 1.0236, "total_shots": 0.3326, "rating": 6.7532, "minutes": 78.72, "total_pass": 38.2721, "accurate_pass": 32.8022, "duels_won": 4.1331, "total_long_balls": 1.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3645, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0194, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7828, "crosses_total": 1.4357, "crosses_accurate": 0.2732, "touches": 58.6351, "possession_lost": 10.0337, "dispossessed": 0.3934, "duels_lost": 3.4022, "aerial_lost": 0.4048, "total_contest": 0.6317, "won_contest": 0.2345, "ball_recovery": 2.1837, "challenges_lost": 0.8512, "fouls": 1.3556, "fouls_drawn": 0.7416, "blocks": 0.0475, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0342, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "expected_assists": 0.054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0745, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1455, "total_progression": 40.5145, "progressive_carries": 0.9598, "key_pass": 0.5322, "shots_off_target": 0.3326 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3400000, "quality_factor": 0.4424, "boost_factor": 0.9951, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 14, "history_shrink": 0.2632, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0068)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.024, "tackles": 2.0433, "tackles_won": 1.2725, "clearances": 2.4799, "aerial_won": 1.0236, "total_shots": 0.3303, "rating": 6.7532, "minutes": 78.72, "total_pass": 38.2721, "accurate_pass": 32.8022, "duels_won": 4.1331, "total_long_balls": 1.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3645, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0194, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7828, "crosses_total": 1.4458, "crosses_accurate": 0.2732, "touches": 58.6351, "possession_lost": 10.0337, "dispossessed": 0.3934, "duels_lost": 3.4022, "aerial_lost": 0.4048, "total_contest": 0.6317, "won_contest": 0.2345, "ball_recovery": 2.1837, "challenges_lost": 0.8512, "fouls": 1.3563, "fouls_drawn": 0.7465, "blocks": 0.0475, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.034, "assist_rate": 0.034, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "expected_assists": 0.054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0745, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1455, "total_progression": 40.5145, "progressive_carries": 0.9598, "key_pass": 0.5322, "shots_off_target": 0.3326 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0068, "history_matches": 14, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8747, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.4357, "after": 1.4458 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2813, "after": 1.2725 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0311, "after": 1.024 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.024, "tackles": 2.0433, "tackles_won": 1.2725, "clearances": 2.4799, "aerial_won": 1.0236, "total_shots": 0.3326, "rating": 6.7532, "minutes": 78.72, "total_pass": 38.2721, "accurate_pass": 32.8022, "duels_won": 4.1331, "total_long_balls": 1.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3645, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0194, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7828, "crosses_total": 1.4458, "crosses_accurate": 0.2732, "touches": 58.6351, "possession_lost": 10.0337, "dispossessed": 0.3934, "duels_lost": 3.4022, "aerial_lost": 0.4048, "total_contest": 0.6317, "won_contest": 0.2345, "ball_recovery": 2.1837, "challenges_lost": 0.8512, "fouls": 1.3563, "fouls_drawn": 0.7465, "blocks": 0.0475, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.034, "assist_rate": 0.034, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "expected_assists": 0.054, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0745, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1455, "total_progression": 40.5145, "progressive_carries": 0.9598, "key_pass": 0.5322, "shots_off_target": 0.3326 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.024, "tackles": 2.0433, "tackles_won": 1.2725, "clearances": 2.4799, "aerial_won": 1.0236, "total_shots": 0.3326, "rating": 6.7532, "minutes": 78.72, "total_pass": 38.2721, "accurate_pass": 32.8022, "duels_won": 4.1331, "total_long_balls": 1.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3645, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0194, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7828, 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"defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Germán Valera", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.024, "tackles": 2.0433, "tackles_won": 1.2725, "clearances": 2.4799, "aerial_won": 1.0236, "total_shots": 0.3326, "rating": 6.7532, "minutes": 78.72, "total_pass": 38.2721, "accurate_pass": 32.8022, "duels_won": 4.1331, "total_long_balls": 1.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3645, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0194, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9271, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7828, "crosses_total": 1.4458, "crosses_accurate": 0.2732, "touches": 58.6351, "possession_lost": 10.0337, "dispossessed": 0.3934, "duels_lost": 3.4022, 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"projected_match_rating": 7.107, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marc Roca", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chang-min Ahn", "ranking": 1690 }, { "player_name": "Borja Iglesias", "ranking": 1691 }, { "player_name": "Eli Dasa", "ranking": 1692 }, { "player_name": "Kamil Grabara", "ranking": 1693 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Bah", "ranking": 1694 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Til Mavretič", "ranking": 1696 }, { "player_name": "Vicente Álvarez", "ranking": 1697 }, { "player_name": "Matías Cavalleri", "ranking": 1698 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Theate", "ranking": 1699 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Kakhramonov", "ranking": 1700 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", 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"margin": -0.070592 } ], "others_margin": -0.274752 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04547635093331337, "model_output": 0.0455, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": -0.0122, "total": 0.0455, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.201033 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.177435 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.132285 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.098629 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.082509 } ], "others_margin": -0.237544 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.13966555893421173, "model_output": 0.1397, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0806 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0416, "total": 0.1397, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.292605 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.154531 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.149504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128509 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.093664 } ], "others_margin": -0.260623 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5769701600074768, "model_output": 0.577, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2629 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1157 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0404 } ], "others": -0.133, "total": 0.577, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.262862 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115716 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.044442 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042931 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040405 } ], "others_margin": -0.133042 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.1070427894592285, "model_output": 7.107, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0857 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.075 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0227 } ], "others": 0.0594, "total": 7.107, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.085671 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.075045 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030261 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.023457 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02267 } ], "others_margin": 0.05945 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9981, quality 0.452)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8138, "expected_assists": 0.071, "assists": 0.0609, "assist_rate": 0.0609, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "goals": 0.0454, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "shots_on_target": 0.1394, "total_shots": 0.5759, "rating": 7.107, "minutes": 86.21, "total_pass": 59.7988, "accurate_pass": 55.5085, "duels_won": 3.7906, "total_long_balls": 4.073, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0775, "total_own_half_passes": 28.111, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8882, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.6878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.6203, "crosses_total": 0.375, "crosses_accurate": 0.0509, "touches": 70.5624, "possession_lost": 5.9917, "dispossessed": 0.7884, "duels_lost": 3.5324, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.3074, "interceptions": 1.1027, "tackles_won": 0.8983, "tackles": 1.8991, "clearances": 1.342, "total_contest": 0.4506, "won_contest": 0.428, "challenges_lost": 0.7215, "fouls": 1.6966, "fouls_drawn": 0.9404, "blocks": 0.534, "big_chances_created": 0.1386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0129, "xgot": 0.015, "ball_carries": 19.8427, "total_progression": 44.3419, "progressive_carries": 0.0458, "shots_off_target": 0.4365 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4200000, "quality_factor": 0.4523, "boost_factor": 0.9981, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8138, "expected_assists": 0.071, "assists": 0.0653, "assist_rate": 0.0653, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "goals": 0.045, "goal_rate": 0.045, "shots_on_target": 0.1382, "total_shots": 0.5854, "rating": 7.107, "minutes": 86.21, "total_pass": 59.7988, "accurate_pass": 55.5085, "duels_won": 3.7906, "total_long_balls": 4.073, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0775, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.433615 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.156725 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.081712 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.051168 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.039778 } ], "others_margin": 0.074222 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.177077293395996, "model_output": 7.1771, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0957 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0785 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0288 } ], "others": 0.0535, "total": 7.1771, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.095669 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.078453 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.032861 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030324 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.028815 } ], "others_margin": 0.053551 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9961, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2323, "expected_assists": 0.1915, "assists": 0.1962, "assist_rate": 0.1962, "expected_goals": 0.1559, "goals": 0.1533, "goal_rate": 0.1533, "shots_on_target": 0.6292, "total_shots": 1.8151, "rating": 7.1771, "minutes": 67.66, "total_pass": 44.7822, "accurate_pass": 40.8826, "duels_won": 3.2294, "total_long_balls": 2.9623, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1265, "total_own_half_passes": 12.3404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8066, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.4418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.0761, "crosses_total": 3.1144, "crosses_accurate": 1.6791, "touches": 58.3541, "possession_lost": 8.2889, "dispossessed": 0.948, "duels_lost": 3.4113, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3229, "interceptions": 0.2831, "tackles_won": 0.1745, "tackles": 0.3491, "clearances": 0.0658, "total_contest": 1.869, "won_contest": 1.0771, "challenges_lost": 0.7281, "fouls": 0.6204, "fouls_drawn": 1.8031, "blocks": 0.1261, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.4169, "ball_carries": 18.5874, "total_progression": 52.3106, "progressive_carries": 1.5534, "shots_off_target": 1.1859 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3600000, "quality_factor": 0.4449, "boost_factor": 0.9961, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 18, "history_shrink": 0.2174, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0123)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2323, "expected_assists": 0.1915, "assists": 0.1938, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "expected_goals": 0.1559, "goals": 0.1514, "goal_rate": 0.1514, "shots_on_target": 0.642, "total_shots": 1.8134, "rating": 7.1771, "minutes": 67.66, "total_pass": 44.7822, "accurate_pass": 40.8826, "duels_won": 3.2294, "total_long_balls": 2.9623, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1265, "total_own_half_passes": 12.3404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8066, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.4418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.0761, "crosses_total": 3.1258, "crosses_accurate": 1.6791, "touches": 58.3541, "possession_lost": 8.2889, "dispossessed": 0.948, "duels_lost": 3.4113, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3229, "interceptions": 0.2867, "tackles_won": 0.1724, "tackles": 0.3491, "clearances": 0.0658, "total_contest": 1.869, "won_contest": 1.0771, "challenges_lost": 0.7281, "fouls": 0.6411, "fouls_drawn": 1.8023, "blocks": 0.1261, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.4169, "ball_carries": 18.5874, "total_progression": 52.3106, "progressive_carries": 1.5534, "shots_off_target": 1.1859 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0123, "history_matches": 18, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7518, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6204, "after": 0.6411 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6292, "after": 0.642 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.1144, "after": 3.1258 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2323, "expected_assists": 0.1915, "assists": 0.1938, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "expected_goals": 0.1559, "goals": 0.1514, "goal_rate": 0.1514, "shots_on_target": 0.642, "total_shots": 1.8279, "rating": 7.1771, "minutes": 67.66, "total_pass": 44.7822, "accurate_pass": 40.8826, "duels_won": 3.2294, "total_long_balls": 2.9623, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1265, "total_own_half_passes": 12.3404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8066, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.4418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.0761, "crosses_total": 3.1258, "crosses_accurate": 1.6791, "touches": 58.3541, "possession_lost": 8.2889, "dispossessed": 0.948, "duels_lost": 3.4113, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3229, "interceptions": 0.2867, "tackles_won": 0.1724, "tackles": 0.3491, "clearances": 0.0658, "total_contest": 1.869, "won_contest": 1.0771, "challenges_lost": 0.7281, "fouls": 0.6411, "fouls_drawn": 1.8023, "blocks": 0.1261, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.4169, "ball_carries": 18.5874, "total_progression": 52.3106, "progressive_carries": 1.5534, "shots_off_target": 1.1859 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2323, "expected_assists": 0.1915, "assists": 0.1938, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "expected_goals": 0.153, "goals": 0.1486, "goal_rate": 0.1486, "shots_on_target": 0.6301, "total_shots": 1.7939, "rating": 7.1771, "minutes": 67.66, "total_pass": 44.7822, "accurate_pass": 40.8826, "duels_won": 3.2294, "total_long_balls": 2.9623, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1265, "total_own_half_passes": 12.3404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8066, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.4418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.0761, "crosses_total": 3.1258, "crosses_accurate": 1.6791, "touches": 58.3541, "possession_lost": 8.2889, "dispossessed": 0.948, "duels_lost": 3.4113, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3229, "interceptions": 0.2867, "tackles_won": 0.1724, "tackles": 0.3491, "clearances": 0.0658, "total_contest": 1.869, "won_contest": 1.0771, "challenges_lost": 0.7281, "fouls": 0.6411, "fouls_drawn": 1.8023, "blocks": 0.1261, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1454, "xgot": 0.4091, "ball_carries": 18.5874, "total_progression": 52.3106, "progressive_carries": 1.5534, "shots_off_target": 1.1638, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9814, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.467, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pedro Bigas", "opponent_faced": "Pedro Bigas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pedro Bigas", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.467, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9814, "skill_edge": 0.0034, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.4449, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pedro Bigas", "market_value": 310000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.153 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8279, "after": 1.7939 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1859, "after": 1.1638 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.642, "after": 0.6301 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.4169, "after": 0.4091 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2323, "expected_assists": 0.1915, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.153, "goal_rate": 0.1486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6301, "total_shots": 1.7939, "rating": 7.1771, "minutes": 67.66, "total_pass": 44.7822, "accurate_pass": 40.8826, "duels_won": 3.2294, "total_long_balls": 2.9623, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1265, "total_own_half_passes": 12.3404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8066, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.4418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.0761, "crosses_total": 3.1258, "crosses_accurate": 1.6791, "touches": 58.3541, "possession_lost": 8.2889, "dispossessed": 0.948, "duels_lost": 3.4113, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3229, "interceptions": 0.2867, "tackles_won": 0.1724, "tackles": 0.3491, "clearances": 0.0658, "total_contest": 1.869, "won_contest": 1.0771, "challenges_lost": 0.7281, "fouls": 0.6411, "fouls_drawn": 1.8023, "blocks": 0.1261, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1454, "xgot": 0.4091, "ball_carries": 18.5874, "total_progression": 52.3106, "progressive_carries": 1.5534, "shots_off_target": 1.1638, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9814, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.467, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pedro Bigas", "opponent_faced": "Pedro Bigas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.0814, xG scale 1.3039, xA scale 1.1830, team xA 1.13 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2323, "expected_assists": 0.2267, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1995, "goal_rate": 0.1486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6301, "total_shots": 1.7939, "rating": 7.1771, "minutes": 67.66, "total_pass": 44.7822, "accurate_pass": 40.8826, "duels_won": 3.2294, "total_long_balls": 2.9623, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1265, "total_own_half_passes": 12.3404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8066, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.4418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.0761, "crosses_total": 3.1258, "crosses_accurate": 1.6791, "touches": 58.3541, "possession_lost": 8.2889, "dispossessed": 0.948, "duels_lost": 3.4113, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3229, "interceptions": 0.2867, "tackles_won": 0.1724, "tackles": 0.3491, "clearances": 0.0658, "total_contest": 1.869, "won_contest": 1.0771, "challenges_lost": 0.7281, "fouls": 0.6411, "fouls_drawn": 1.8023, "blocks": 0.1261, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1454, "xgot": 0.5334, "ball_carries": 18.5874, "total_progression": 52.3106, "progressive_carries": 1.5534, "shots_off_target": 1.1638, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9814, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.467, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pedro Bigas", "opponent_faced": "Pedro Bigas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9783, "creation_factor": 1.0095 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0814, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9535, "team_expected_assists": 1.128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3039, "xa_scale": 1.183, "opponent_lambda": 1.574, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.153, "after": 0.1995 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1915, "after": 0.2267 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2323, "expected_assists": 0.2267, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1995, "goal_rate": 0.1486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6301, "total_shots": 1.7939, "rating": 7.1771, "minutes": 67.66, "total_pass": 44.7822, "accurate_pass": 40.8826, "duels_won": 3.2294, "total_long_balls": 2.9623, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1265, "total_own_half_passes": 12.3404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8066, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.4418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.0761, "crosses_total": 3.1258, "crosses_accurate": 1.6791, "touches": 58.3541, "possession_lost": 8.2889, "dispossessed": 0.948, "duels_lost": 3.4113, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3229, "interceptions": 0.2867, "tackles_won": 0.1724, "tackles": 0.3491, "clearances": 0.0658, "total_contest": 1.869, "won_contest": 1.0771, "challenges_lost": 0.7281, "fouls": 0.6411, "fouls_drawn": 1.8023, "blocks": 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2323, "expected_assists": 0.2267, "assist_rate": 0.1938, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1995, "goal_rate": 0.1486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6301, "total_shots": 1.7939, "rating": 7.1771, "minutes": 67.66, "total_pass": 44.7822, "accurate_pass": 40.8826, "duels_won": 3.2294, "total_long_balls": 2.9623, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1265, "total_own_half_passes": 12.3404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8066, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.4418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.0761, "crosses_total": 3.1258, "crosses_accurate": 1.6791, "touches": 58.3541, "possession_lost": 8.2889, "dispossessed": 0.948, "duels_lost": 3.4113, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3229, "interceptions": 0.2867, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.089136 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.070477 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033321 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.022627 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021744 } ], "others_margin": 0.072502 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 47, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0016, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4339, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "assists": 0.045, "assist_rate": 0.045, "expected_goals": 0.0491, "goals": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "shots_on_target": 0.1867, "total_shots": 0.7182, "rating": 6.7793, "minutes": 75.29, "total_pass": 37.9577, "accurate_pass": 32.6072, "duels_won": 3.4521, "total_long_balls": 5.4684, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4885, "total_own_half_passes": 17.798, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8949, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1596, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7158, "possession_lost": 5.6816, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0187, "aerial_won": 0.3811, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2349, "tackles_won": 0.9687, "tackles": 2.1436, "clearances": 1.5598, 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"contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0052, "total": 6.9196, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041615 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.021072 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016179 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.012102 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.008829 } ], "others_margin": -0.005253 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.484)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4133, "expected_assists": 0.1259, "assists": 0.1031, "assist_rate": 0.1031, "expected_goals": 0.0905, "goals": 0.0818, "goal_rate": 0.0818, "shots_on_target": 0.2775, "total_shots": 0.7859, "rating": 6.9196, "minutes": 67.87, "total_pass": 37.2695, "accurate_pass": 31.5838, "duels_won": 3.5499, "total_long_balls": 2.6461, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7114, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2874, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2964, "crosses_total": 2.1706, "crosses_accurate": 0.5865, "touches": 49.1592, "possession_lost": 10.6217, "dispossessed": 1.0371, "duels_lost": 3.5345, "aerial_won": 0.3946, "aerial_lost": 0.7492, "interceptions": 0.2696, "tackles_won": 0.4971, "tackles": 0.8208, 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0.126166 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.113671 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.070256 } ], "others_margin": 0.189479 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.209466934204102, "model_output": 7.2095, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1051 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0657 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0469 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0436 } ], "others": 0.203, "total": 7.2095, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.105144 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.065738 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065728 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.046885 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.043628 } ], "others_margin": 0.202779 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"total_pass": 33.5081, "accurate_pass": 27.7589, "duels_won": 6.0318, "total_long_balls": 1.1261, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8407, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.6315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0863, "crosses_total": 1.4942, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 54.3074, "possession_lost": 13.363, "dispossessed": 1.3569, "duels_lost": 4.8322, "aerial_lost": 0.8193, "total_contest": 3.7411, "won_contest": 1.9027, "ball_recovery": 3.4106, "challenges_lost": 0.3187, "fouls": 0.7566, "fouls_drawn": 1.667, "assist_rate": 0.0808, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3351, "tackles_won": 0.9893, "tackles": 1.6298, "clearances": 0.6109, "blocks": 0.0216, "big_chances_created": 0.1337, "big_chances_missed": 0.3601, "xgot": 0.5646, "offsides": 0.3095, "ball_carries": 19.3862, "total_progression": 132.66, "progressive_carries": 5.5993, "shots_off_target": 1.8569, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1716, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.317, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo", "opponent_faced": "Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0814, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9535, "team_expected_assists": 1.128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3039, "xa_scale": 1.183, "opponent_lambda": 1.574, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3716, "after": 0.4845 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.184, "after": 0.2177 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"opponent_defenders": "Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo", "opponent_faced": "Buba Sangaré, Roy Revivo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.384, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1956, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1956, "assist_rate": 0.0808, "provider_weight": 0.1742, "squad_weight_total": 1.0036, "weight_share": 0.1735, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.2289, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2289, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1784, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Diego Conde": { "player_id": 951008, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, 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0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9391, "total_progression": 4.2351, "progressive_carries": 0.0717, "key_pass": 0.3816, "shots_off_target": 0.1322 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:04:53.735026+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 631, "rows": 22117 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-25", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 4.8738, "aerialWon": 1.2627, "totalClearance_p90": 6.1306, "totalTackle": 1.2603, "totalTackle_p90": 1.3492 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3416792154312134, "model_output": 0.3417, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5109 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0279, "total": 0.3417, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.137969, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.882987 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.064587 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.038338 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.02079 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.020576 } ], "others_margin": -0.078962 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.4856208562850952, "model_output": 0.4856, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7616 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0568, "total": 0.4856, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.796066 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.055997 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.032109 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.028967 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.026103 } ], "others_margin": -0.110588 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.289565771818161, "model_output": 0.2896, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1951 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4647 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0365, "total": 0.2896, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.793864 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.045784 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.044557 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.037347 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.034443 } ], "others_margin": -0.118765 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.4941093921661377, "model_output": 2.4941, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0055 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2981 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1414 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.124 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1125 } ], "others": 0.4079, "total": 2.4941, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.884624 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.191785 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.079521 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.064876 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.055455 } ], "others_margin": 0.178536 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6442645788192749, "model_output": 0.6443, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7793 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0407 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.035 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0202 } ], "others": -0.0304, "total": 0.6443, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.841568 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.066646 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.053992 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.04226 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.029456 } ], "others_margin": -0.046114 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1322469860315323, "model_output": 0.1322, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1927 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0893 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0473, "total": 0.1322, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.192722 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.089262 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021109 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010229 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008825 } ], "others_margin": -0.047313 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.809432506561279, "model_output": 6.8094, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": 0.0432, "total": 6.8094, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.021017 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.015136 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008479 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.006859 } ], "others_margin": 0.04321 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0012, quality 0.536)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3421, "tackles": 0.4862, "tackles_won": 0.2899, "clearances": 2.4971, "aerial_won": 0.645, "total_shots": 0.1324, "rating": 6.8094, "minutes": 27.53, "total_pass": 18.5995, "accurate_pass": 16.4926, "duels_won": 1.522, "total_long_balls": 2.0478, "accurate_long_balls": 1.416, "total_own_half_passes": 11.4831, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6095, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1164, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.883, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.8136, "possession_lost": 2.9592, "dispossessed": 0.0705, "duels_lost": 1.5175, "aerial_lost": 0.676, "total_contest": 0.201, "won_contest": 0.1305, "ball_recovery": 1.262, "challenges_lost": 0.1411, "fouls": 0.5594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.9123, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0081, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3221, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.945, "total_progression": 4.2402, "progressive_carries": 0.0718, "key_pass": 0.3821, "shots_off_target": 0.1324 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11200000, "quality_factor": 0.5365, "boost_factor": 1.0012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0057)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3436, "tackles": 0.4862, "tackles_won": 0.2935, "clearances": 2.4971, "aerial_won": 0.645, "total_shots": 0.1316, "rating": 6.8094, "minutes": 27.53, "total_pass": 18.5995, "accurate_pass": 16.4926, "duels_won": 1.522, "total_long_balls": 2.0478, "accurate_long_balls": 1.416, "total_own_half_passes": 11.4831, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6095, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1164, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.883, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.8136, "possession_lost": 2.9592, "dispossessed": 0.0705, "duels_lost": 1.5175, "aerial_lost": 0.676, "total_contest": 0.201, "won_contest": 0.1305, "ball_recovery": 1.262, "challenges_lost": 0.1411, "fouls": 0.558, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.9123, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0081, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3221, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.945, "total_progression": 4.2402, "progressive_carries": 0.0718, "key_pass": 0.3821, "shots_off_target": 0.1324 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0057, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3059, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.5 to 14.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1743, "tackles": 0.2466, "tackles_won": 0.1489, "clearances": 1.2666, "aerial_won": 0.3272, "total_shots": 0.0672, "rating": 6.8094, "minutes": 13.96, "total_pass": 9.4344, "accurate_pass": 8.3657, "duels_won": 0.772, "total_long_balls": 1.0387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7183, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8247, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3816, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9841, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.5865, "possession_lost": 1.501, "dispossessed": 0.0705, "duels_lost": 0.7697, "aerial_lost": 0.676, "total_contest": 0.102, "won_contest": 0.0662, "ball_recovery": 0.6401, "challenges_lost": 0.1411, "fouls": 0.283, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.4628, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0041, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1634, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5083, "total_progression": 2.1508, "progressive_carries": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.1938, "shots_off_target": 0.0672, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.225, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.96 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.96, "projection_minutes": 27.53, "minutes_scale": 0.5072, "appearance_probability": 0.225 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1743, "tackles": 0.2466, "tackles_won": 0.1489, "clearances": 1.2666, "aerial_won": 0.3272, "total_shots": 0.0672, "rating": 6.8094, "minutes": 13.96, "total_pass": 9.4344, "accurate_pass": 8.3657, "duels_won": 0.772, "total_long_balls": 1.0387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7183, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8247, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3816, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9841, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.5865, "possession_lost": 1.501, "dispossessed": 0.0705, "duels_lost": 0.7697, "aerial_lost": 0.676, "total_contest": 0.102, "won_contest": 0.0662, "ball_recovery": 0.6401, "challenges_lost": 0.1411, "fouls": 0.283, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.4628, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0041, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1634, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5083, "total_progression": 2.1508, "progressive_carries": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.1938, "shots_off_target": 0.0672, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.225, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.96 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1743, "tackles": 0.2466, "tackles_won": 0.1489, "clearances": 1.2666, "aerial_won": 0.3272, "total_shots": 0.0672, "rating": 6.8094, "minutes": 13.96, "total_pass": 9.4344, "accurate_pass": 8.3657, "duels_won": 0.772, "total_long_balls": 1.0387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7183, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8247, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3816, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9841, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.5865, "possession_lost": 1.501, "dispossessed": 0.0705, "duels_lost": 0.7697, "aerial_lost": 0.676, "total_contest": 0.102, "won_contest": 0.0662, "ball_recovery": 0.6401, "challenges_lost": 0.1411, "fouls": 0.283, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.4628, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0041, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1634, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5083, "total_progression": 2.1508, "progressive_carries": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.1938, "shots_off_target": 0.0672, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.225, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.96, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, 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"history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2057 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0719 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0526, "total": 0.1683, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.205666 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.071929 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.014693 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.011741 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009088 } ], "others_margin": -0.052655 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.761209011077881, "model_output": 6.7612, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.221, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0956 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0031, "total": 6.7197, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.095638 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02044 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018477 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011505 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011385 } ], "others_margin": -0.002986 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0006, quality 0.520)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.392, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "assists": 0.0501, "assist_rate": 0.0501, "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goals": 0.055, "goal_rate": 0.055, "shots_on_target": 0.2116, "total_shots": 0.9444, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.21, "total_pass": 10.534, "accurate_pass": 9.2024, "duels_won": 2.0542, "total_long_balls": 0.7778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6304, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4109, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1893, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1232, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0132, "crosses_total": 0.061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7918, "possession_lost": 2.6577, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.8198, "aerial_won": 0.7369, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0309, "tackles_won": 0.3587, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.1778, "total_contest": 0.8105, "won_contest": 0.4987, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.7912, "fouls_drawn": 0.4599, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1235, "big_chances_missed": 0.1136, "xgot": 0.0967, "ball_carries": 5.1492, "total_progression": 19.3644, "progressive_carries": 0.645, "shots_off_target": 0.7327 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9800000, "quality_factor": 0.5201, "boost_factor": 1.0006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0084)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.392, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "assists": 0.0497, "assist_rate": 0.0497, "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goals": 0.0545, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "shots_on_target": 0.2111, "total_shots": 0.9442, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.21, "total_pass": 10.534, "accurate_pass": 9.2024, "duels_won": 2.0542, "total_long_balls": 0.7778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6304, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4109, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1893, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1232, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0132, "crosses_total": 0.0605, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7918, "possession_lost": 2.6577, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.8198, "aerial_won": 0.7369, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0319, "tackles_won": 0.3582, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.1778, "total_contest": 0.8105, "won_contest": 0.4987, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.7871, "fouls_drawn": 0.4573, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1235, "big_chances_missed": 0.1136, "xgot": 0.0967, "ball_carries": 5.1492, "total_progression": 19.3644, "progressive_carries": 0.645, "shots_off_target": 0.7327 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0084, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2134, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.2 to 19.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4067, "expected_assists": 0.03, "assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "expected_goals": 0.0532, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.9796, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.9288, "accurate_pass": 9.5473, "duels_won": 2.1312, "total_long_balls": 0.807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3088, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2386, "crosses_total": 0.0628, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3837, "possession_lost": 2.7573, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.888, "aerial_won": 0.7645, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0331, "tackles_won": 0.3716, "tackles": 0.3721, "clearances": 0.1845, "total_contest": 0.8409, "won_contest": 0.5174, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.8166, "fouls_drawn": 0.4744, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1281, "big_chances_missed": 0.1179, "xgot": 0.1003, "ball_carries": 5.3422, "total_progression": 20.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.6692, "shots_off_target": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.93, "projection_minutes": 19.21, "minutes_scale": 1.0375, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4067, "expected_assists": 0.03, "assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "expected_goals": 0.0532, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.9796, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.9288, "accurate_pass": 9.5473, "duels_won": 2.1312, "total_long_balls": 0.807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3088, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2386, "crosses_total": 0.0628, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3837, "possession_lost": 2.7573, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.888, "aerial_won": 0.7645, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0331, "tackles_won": 0.3716, "tackles": 0.3721, "clearances": 0.1845, "total_contest": 0.8409, "won_contest": 0.5174, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.8166, "fouls_drawn": 0.4744, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1281, "big_chances_missed": 0.1179, "xgot": 0.1003, "ball_carries": 5.3422, "total_progression": 20.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.6692, "shots_off_target": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4067, "expected_assists": 0.03, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0532, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.9796, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.9288, "accurate_pass": 9.5473, "duels_won": 2.1312, "total_long_balls": 0.807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3088, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2386, "crosses_total": 0.0628, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3837, "possession_lost": 2.7573, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.888, "aerial_won": 0.7645, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0331, "tackles_won": 0.3716, "tackles": 0.3721, "clearances": 0.1845, "total_contest": 0.8409, "won_contest": 0.5174, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.8166, "fouls_drawn": 0.4744, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1281, "big_chances_missed": 0.1179, "xgot": 0.1003, "ball_carries": 5.3422, "total_progression": 20.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.6692, "shots_off_target": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.0814, xG scale 1.3039, xA scale 1.1830, team xA 1.13 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4067, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.9796, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.9288, "accurate_pass": 9.5473, "duels_won": 2.1312, "total_long_balls": 0.807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3088, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2386, "crosses_total": 0.0628, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3837, "possession_lost": 2.7573, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.888, "aerial_won": 0.7645, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0331, "tackles_won": 0.3716, "tackles": 0.3721, "clearances": 0.1845, "total_contest": 0.8409, "won_contest": 0.5174, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.8166, "fouls_drawn": 0.4744, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1281, "big_chances_missed": 0.1179, "xgot": 0.0745, "ball_carries": 5.3422, "total_progression": 20.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.6692, "shots_off_target": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.032, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0814, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9535, "team_expected_assists": 1.128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3039, "xa_scale": 1.183, "opponent_lambda": 1.574, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0532, "after": 0.0395 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.03, "after": 0.0202 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4067, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.9796, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.9288, "accurate_pass": 9.5473, "duels_won": 2.1312, "total_long_balls": 0.807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3088, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2386, "crosses_total": 0.0628, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3837, "possession_lost": 2.7573, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.888, "aerial_won": 0.7645, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0331, "tackles_won": 0.3716, "tackles": 0.3721, "clearances": 0.1845, "total_contest": 0.8409, "won_contest": 0.5174, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.8166, "fouls_drawn": 0.4744, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1281, "big_chances_missed": 0.1179, "xgot": 0.0745, "ball_carries": 5.3422, "total_progression": 20.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.6692, "shots_off_target": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.032, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3441, "fifa_rank": 2416.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4067, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.9796, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.9288, "accurate_pass": 9.5473, "duels_won": 2.1312, "total_long_balls": 0.807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3088, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2386, "crosses_total": 0.0628, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3837, "possession_lost": 2.7573, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.888, "aerial_won": 0.7645, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0331, "tackles_won": 0.3716, "tackles": 0.3721, "clearances": 0.1845, "total_contest": 0.8409, "won_contest": 0.5174, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.8166, "fouls_drawn": 0.4744, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1281, "big_chances_missed": 0.1179, "xgot": 0.0745, "ball_carries": 5.3422, "total_progression": 20.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.6692, "shots_off_target": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0382, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.032, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "scorer_weight": 0.0408, "squad_weight_total": 1.5061, "weight_share": 0.0271, "finishing_factor": 1.032, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.6056, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6056, "runner_up": "Isco", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1952 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4067, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.9796, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.9288, "accurate_pass": 9.5473, "duels_won": 2.1312, "total_long_balls": 0.807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3088, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3902, 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"totalShots", "margin": -0.214033 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.195809 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.074485 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.062855 } ], "others_margin": -0.25396 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.05679154023528099, "model_output": 0.0568, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1356 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0298, "total": 0.0568, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.556297 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.395894 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.174918 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.094674 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.079189 } ], "others_margin": -0.421308 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.15625470876693726, "model_output": 0.1563, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3007 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2229 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.032 } ], "others": -0.2039, "total": 0.1563, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.300729 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.222897 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035528 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.033616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032018 } ], "others_margin": -0.203892 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.756905555725098, "model_output": 6.7569, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1086 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0092, "total": 6.7569, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.108606 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016659 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.015854 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010715 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010433 } ], "others_margin": 0.009194 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.478)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3592, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0383, "assist_rate": 0.0383, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0274, "shots_on_target": 0.0567, "total_shots": 0.1561, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 21.25, "total_pass": 19.559, "accurate_pass": 18.1573, "duels_won": 2.8218, "total_long_balls": 1.1112, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9143, "total_own_half_passes": 7.978, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.5258, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6315, "crosses_total": 0.1523, "crosses_accurate": 0.1359, "touches": 24.7942, "possession_lost": 2.0482, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0251, "aerial_won": 0.1599, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1602, "tackles_won": 0.7117, "tackles": 1.2914, "clearances": 0.1862, "total_contest": 0.6503, "won_contest": 0.3478, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.183, "fouls_drawn": 1.0228, "blocks": 0.1359, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.2965, "total_progression": 33.1635, "progressive_carries": 0.7504, "shots_off_target": 0.0994 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6300000, "quality_factor": 0.4781, "boost_factor": 0.9986, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.2 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3741, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "goals": 0.0285, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "shots_on_target": 0.0591, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 20.372, "accurate_pass": 18.912, "duels_won": 2.9391, "total_long_balls": 1.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9523, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8386, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0734, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 25.8248, "possession_lost": 2.1333, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_won": 0.1665, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1669, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "tackles": 1.3451, "clearances": 0.1939, "total_contest": 0.6773, "won_contest": 0.3623, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0653, "blocks": 0.1415, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7245, "total_progression": 34.542, "progressive_carries": 0.7816, "shots_off_target": 0.1035, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.13, "projection_minutes": 21.25, "minutes_scale": 1.0416, "appearance_probability": 0.506 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3741, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "goals": 0.0285, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "shots_on_target": 0.0591, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 20.372, "accurate_pass": 18.912, "duels_won": 2.9391, "total_long_balls": 1.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9523, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8386, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0734, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 25.8248, "possession_lost": 2.1333, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_won": 0.1665, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1669, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "tackles": 1.3451, "clearances": 0.1939, "total_contest": 0.6773, "won_contest": 0.3623, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0653, "blocks": 0.1415, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7245, "total_progression": 34.542, "progressive_carries": 0.7816, "shots_off_target": 0.1035, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3741, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0591, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 20.372, "accurate_pass": 18.912, "duels_won": 2.9391, "total_long_balls": 1.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9523, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8386, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0734, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 25.8248, "possession_lost": 2.1333, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_won": 0.1665, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1669, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "tackles": 1.3451, "clearances": 0.1939, "total_contest": 0.6773, "won_contest": 0.3623, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0653, "blocks": 0.1415, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7245, "total_progression": 34.542, "progressive_carries": 0.7816, "shots_off_target": 0.1035, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.0814, xG scale 1.3039, xA scale 1.1830, team xA 1.13 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3741, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0102, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0591, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 20.372, "accurate_pass": 18.912, "duels_won": 2.9391, "total_long_balls": 1.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9523, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8386, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0734, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 25.8248, "possession_lost": 2.1333, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_won": 0.1665, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1669, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "tackles": 1.3451, "clearances": 0.1939, "total_contest": 0.6773, "won_contest": 0.3623, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0653, "blocks": 0.1415, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7245, "total_progression": 34.542, "progressive_carries": 0.7816, "shots_off_target": 0.1035, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1985, "creation_factor": 1.095 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0814, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9535, "team_expected_assists": 1.128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3039, "xa_scale": 1.183, "opponent_lambda": 1.574, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.506 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0155, "after": 0.0102 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0321, "after": 0.0192 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3741, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0102, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0591, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 20.372, "accurate_pass": 18.912, "duels_won": 2.9391, "total_long_balls": 1.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9523, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8386, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0734, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 25.8248, "possession_lost": 2.1333, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_won": 0.1665, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1669, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "tackles": 1.3451, "clearances": 0.1939, "total_contest": 0.6773, "won_contest": 0.3623, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0653, "blocks": 0.1415, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7245, "total_progression": 34.542, "progressive_carries": 0.7816, "shots_off_target": 0.1035, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1985, "creation_factor": 1.095, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 963, "fifa_rank": 517.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3741, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0102, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0591, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 20.372, "accurate_pass": 18.912, "duels_won": 2.9391, "total_long_balls": 1.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9523, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8386, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0734, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 25.8248, "possession_lost": 2.1333, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_won": 0.1665, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1669, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "tackles": 1.3451, "clearances": 0.1939, "total_contest": 0.6773, "won_contest": 0.3623, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0653, "blocks": 0.1415, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7245, "total_progression": 34.542, "progressive_carries": 0.7816, "shots_off_target": 0.1035, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0101, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1985, "creation_factor": 1.095, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0101, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "scorer_weight": 0.0122, "squad_weight_total": 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2577 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0611 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0392 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0288 } ], "others": 0.0195, "total": 0.632, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.466079 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.13162 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.095157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.069466 }, { "name": 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"others": -0.0284, "total": 0.3252, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.504523 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07186 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.035818 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030629 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.027985 } ], "others_margin": -0.08395 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.62143087387085, "model_output": 6.6214, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0566 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0229, "total": 6.6214, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056577 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035779 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013101 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012833 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010653 } ], "others_margin": -0.022962 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0127, quality 0.615)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0967, "goals": 0.1078, "goal_rate": 0.1078, "shots_on_target": 0.2953, "total_shots": 0.794, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3293, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 21.32, "total_pass": 8.8862, "accurate_pass": 7.6414, "duels_won": 1.2972, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.929, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8033, "possession_lost": 2.8318, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.8588, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.3945, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8563, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1677, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1425, "tackles": 0.3102, "clearances": 0.4528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5162, "xgot": 0.1341, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7688, "total_progression": 8.5884, "progressive_carries": 0.6129, "shots_off_target": 0.4987 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18400000, "quality_factor": 0.615, "boost_factor": 1.0127, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0133)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0967, "goals": 0.1064, "goal_rate": 0.1064, "shots_on_target": 0.2914, "total_shots": 0.7946, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3293, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 21.32, "total_pass": 8.8862, "accurate_pass": 7.6414, "duels_won": 1.2972, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.929, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8033, "possession_lost": 2.8318, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.8588, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.3945, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8563, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0039, "fouls_drawn": 0.1655, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1524, "tackles": 0.3102, "clearances": 0.4528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5162, "xgot": 0.1341, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.7688, "total_progression": 8.5884, "progressive_carries": 0.6129, "shots_off_target": 0.4987 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0133, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2369, "prior_reliability": 0.0533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.1425, "after": 0.1524 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.3 to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.103, "goals": 0.1133, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 0.846, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.3506, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 9.4614, "accurate_pass": 8.136, "duels_won": 1.3812, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6968, "possession_lost": 3.0151, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.9144, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.3303, "clearances": 0.4821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5496, "xgot": 0.1428, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.948, "total_progression": 9.1443, "progressive_carries": 0.6526, "shots_off_target": 0.531, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.541, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.7, "projection_minutes": 21.32, "minutes_scale": 1.0647, "appearance_probability": 0.541 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.103, "goals": 0.1133, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 0.846, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.3506, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 9.4614, "accurate_pass": 8.136, "duels_won": 1.3812, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6968, "possession_lost": 3.0151, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.9144, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.3303, "clearances": 0.4821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5496, "xgot": 0.1428, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.948, "total_progression": 9.1443, "progressive_carries": 0.6526, "shots_off_target": 0.531, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.541, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.103, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 0.846, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.3506, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 9.4614, "accurate_pass": 8.136, "duels_won": 1.3812, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6968, "possession_lost": 3.0151, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.9144, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.3303, "clearances": 0.4821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5496, "xgot": 0.1428, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.948, "total_progression": 9.1443, "progressive_carries": 0.6526, "shots_off_target": 0.531, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.541, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.0814, xG scale 1.3039, xA scale 1.1830, team xA 1.13 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 0.846, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.3506, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 9.4614, "accurate_pass": 8.136, "duels_won": 1.3812, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6968, "possession_lost": 3.0151, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.9144, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.3303, "clearances": 0.4821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5496, "xgot": 0.1007, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.948, "total_progression": 9.1443, "progressive_carries": 0.6526, "shots_off_target": 0.531, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.541, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0673, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0814, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9535, "team_expected_assists": 1.128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3039, "xa_scale": 1.183, "opponent_lambda": 1.574, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.541 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.103, "after": 0.0727 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0291, "after": 0.0186 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 0.846, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.3506, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 9.4614, "accurate_pass": 8.136, "duels_won": 1.3812, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6968, "possession_lost": 3.0151, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.9144, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.3303, "clearances": 0.4821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5496, "xgot": 0.1007, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.948, "total_progression": 9.1443, "progressive_carries": 0.6526, "shots_off_target": 0.531, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.541, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0673, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1404, "fifa_rank": 1074.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 0.846, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.3506, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 9.4614, "accurate_pass": 8.136, "duels_won": 1.3812, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6968, "possession_lost": 3.0151, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.9144, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.3303, "clearances": 0.4821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5496, "xgot": 0.1007, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.948, "total_progression": 9.1443, "progressive_carries": 0.6526, "shots_off_target": 0.531, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.541, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.068, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0673, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.068, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "scorer_weight": 0.0776, "squad_weight_total": 1.5061, "weight_share": 0.0515, "finishing_factor": 1.0673, "appearance_weight": 0.541, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.6056, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6056, "runner_up": "Isco", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1952 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 0.846, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.3506, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 9.4614, "accurate_pass": 8.136, "duels_won": 1.3812, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6968, "possession_lost": 3.0151, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.9144, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.3303, "clearances": 0.4821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5496, "xgot": 0.1007, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.948, "total_progression": 9.1443, "progressive_carries": 0.6526, "shots_off_target": 0.531, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.541, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.068, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0183, "finishing_factor": 1.0673, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0183, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0149, "squad_weight_total": 1.0036, "weight_share": 0.0148, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.541, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.2289, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2289, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1784, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Nelson Deossa": { "player_id": 1129401, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 185, "market_value": 9800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, 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"predicted": 0.9438570141792297, "model_output": 0.9439, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5119 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3695 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0469 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0431 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0217 } ], "others": -0.0103, "total": 0.9439, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.511885 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.369531 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.046933 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.043127 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.021659 } ], "others_margin": -0.010444 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.719743728637695, "model_output": 6.7197, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0956 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0031, "total": 6.7197, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.095638 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02044 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018477 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011505 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011385 } ], "others_margin": -0.002986 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0006, quality 0.520)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.392, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "assists": 0.0501, "assist_rate": 0.0501, "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goals": 0.055, "goal_rate": 0.055, "shots_on_target": 0.2116, "total_shots": 0.9444, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.21, "total_pass": 10.534, "accurate_pass": 9.2024, "duels_won": 2.0542, "total_long_balls": 0.7778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6304, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4109, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1893, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1232, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0132, "crosses_total": 0.061, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7918, "possession_lost": 2.6577, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.8198, "aerial_won": 0.7369, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0309, "tackles_won": 0.3587, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.1778, "total_contest": 0.8105, "won_contest": 0.4987, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.7912, "fouls_drawn": 0.4599, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1235, "big_chances_missed": 0.1136, "xgot": 0.0967, "ball_carries": 5.1492, "total_progression": 19.3644, "progressive_carries": 0.645, "shots_off_target": 0.7327 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9800000, "quality_factor": 0.5201, "boost_factor": 1.0006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0084)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.392, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "assists": 0.0497, "assist_rate": 0.0497, "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goals": 0.0545, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "shots_on_target": 0.2111, "total_shots": 0.9442, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.21, "total_pass": 10.534, "accurate_pass": 9.2024, "duels_won": 2.0542, "total_long_balls": 0.7778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6304, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4109, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1893, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1232, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0132, "crosses_total": 0.0605, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7918, "possession_lost": 2.6577, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.8198, "aerial_won": 0.7369, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0319, "tackles_won": 0.3582, "tackles": 0.3587, "clearances": 0.1778, "total_contest": 0.8105, "won_contest": 0.4987, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.7871, "fouls_drawn": 0.4573, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1235, "big_chances_missed": 0.1136, "xgot": 0.0967, "ball_carries": 5.1492, "total_progression": 19.3644, "progressive_carries": 0.645, "shots_off_target": 0.7327 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0084, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2134, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.2 to 19.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4067, "expected_assists": 0.03, "assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "expected_goals": 0.0532, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.9796, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.9288, "accurate_pass": 9.5473, "duels_won": 2.1312, "total_long_balls": 0.807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3088, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2386, "crosses_total": 0.0628, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3837, "possession_lost": 2.7573, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.888, "aerial_won": 0.7645, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0331, "tackles_won": 0.3716, "tackles": 0.3721, "clearances": 0.1845, "total_contest": 0.8409, "won_contest": 0.5174, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.8166, "fouls_drawn": 0.4744, "blocks": 0.0, 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2386, "crosses_total": 0.0628, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3837, "possession_lost": 2.7573, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.888, "aerial_won": 0.7645, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0331, "tackles_won": 0.3716, "tackles": 0.3721, "clearances": 0.1845, "total_contest": 0.8409, "won_contest": 0.5174, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.8166, "fouls_drawn": 0.4744, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1281, "big_chances_missed": 0.1179, "xgot": 0.1003, "ball_carries": 5.3422, "total_progression": 20.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.6692, "shots_off_target": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4067, "expected_assists": 0.03, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0532, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.9796, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.9288, "accurate_pass": 9.5473, "duels_won": 2.1312, "total_long_balls": 0.807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3088, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2386, "crosses_total": 0.0628, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3837, "possession_lost": 2.7573, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.888, "aerial_won": 0.7645, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0331, "tackles_won": 0.3716, "tackles": 0.3721, "clearances": 0.1845, "total_contest": 0.8409, "won_contest": 0.5174, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.8166, "fouls_drawn": 0.4744, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1281, "big_chances_missed": 0.1179, "xgot": 0.1003, "ball_carries": 5.3422, "total_progression": 20.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.6692, "shots_off_target": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.0814, xG scale 1.3039, xA scale 1.1830, team xA 1.13 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4067, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.9796, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.9288, "accurate_pass": 9.5473, "duels_won": 2.1312, "total_long_balls": 0.807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3088, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2386, "crosses_total": 0.0628, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3837, "possession_lost": 2.7573, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.888, "aerial_won": 0.7645, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0331, "tackles_won": 0.3716, "tackles": 0.3721, "clearances": 0.1845, "total_contest": 0.8409, "won_contest": 0.5174, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.8166, "fouls_drawn": 0.4744, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1281, "big_chances_missed": 0.1179, "xgot": 0.0745, "ball_carries": 5.3422, "total_progression": 20.0902, "progressive_carries": 0.6692, "shots_off_target": 0.7602, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.032, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0814, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9535, "team_expected_assists": 1.128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3039, "xa_scale": 1.183, "opponent_lambda": 1.574, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0532, "after": 0.0395 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.03, "after": 0.0202 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4067, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.9796, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.9288, "accurate_pass": 9.5473, "duels_won": 2.1312, "total_long_balls": 0.807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3088, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2386, "crosses_total": 0.0628, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3837, "possession_lost": 2.7573, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.888, "aerial_won": 0.7645, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0331, "tackles_won": 0.3716, "tackles": 0.3721, "clearances": 0.1845, "total_contest": 0.8409, "won_contest": 0.5174, "challenges_lost": 0.0906, "fouls": 0.8166, "fouls_drawn": 0.4744, "blocks": 0.0, 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4067, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.9796, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.9288, "accurate_pass": 9.5473, "duels_won": 2.1312, "total_long_balls": 0.807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.654, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3088, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2386, "crosses_total": 0.0628, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3837, "possession_lost": 2.7573, "dispossessed": 0.2814, "duels_lost": 1.888, "aerial_won": 0.7645, "aerial_lost": 0.3549, "interceptions": 0.0331, "tackles_won": 0.3716, "tackles": 0.3721, "clearances": 0.1845, 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"others_margin": -0.145145 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3251887261867523, "model_output": 0.3252, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2741 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0284, "total": 0.3252, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.504523 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07186 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.035818 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030629 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.027985 } ], "others_margin": -0.08395 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.62143087387085, "model_output": 6.6214, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0566 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0229, "total": 6.6214, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056577 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035779 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013101 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012833 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010653 } ], "others_margin": -0.022962 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0127, quality 0.615)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0967, "goals": 0.1078, "goal_rate": 0.1078, "shots_on_target": 0.2953, "total_shots": 0.794, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3293, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 21.32, "total_pass": 8.8862, "accurate_pass": 7.6414, "duels_won": 1.2972, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.929, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8033, "possession_lost": 2.8318, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.8588, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.3945, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8563, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1677, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1425, "tackles": 0.3102, "clearances": 0.4528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5162, "xgot": 0.1341, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7688, "total_progression": 8.5884, "progressive_carries": 0.6129, "shots_off_target": 0.4987 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18400000, "quality_factor": 0.615, "boost_factor": 1.0127, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0133)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0967, "goals": 0.1064, "goal_rate": 0.1064, "shots_on_target": 0.2914, "total_shots": 0.7946, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "key_pass": 0.3293, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 21.32, "total_pass": 8.8862, "accurate_pass": 7.6414, "duels_won": 1.2972, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.929, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8033, "possession_lost": 2.8318, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.8588, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.3945, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8563, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0039, "fouls_drawn": 0.1655, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1524, "tackles": 0.3102, "clearances": 0.4528, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5162, "xgot": 0.1341, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.7688, "total_progression": 8.5884, "progressive_carries": 0.6129, "shots_off_target": 0.4987 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0133, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2369, "prior_reliability": 0.0533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.1425, "after": 0.1524 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.3 to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.103, "goals": 0.1133, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 0.846, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.3506, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 9.4614, "accurate_pass": 8.136, "duels_won": 1.3812, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6968, "possession_lost": 3.0151, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.9144, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.3303, "clearances": 0.4821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5496, "xgot": 0.1428, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.948, "total_progression": 9.1443, "progressive_carries": 0.6526, "shots_off_target": 0.531, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.541, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.7, "projection_minutes": 21.32, "minutes_scale": 1.0647, "appearance_probability": 0.541 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.103, "goals": 0.1133, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 0.846, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.3506, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 9.4614, "accurate_pass": 8.136, "duels_won": 1.3812, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6968, "possession_lost": 3.0151, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.9144, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.3303, "clearances": 0.4821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5496, "xgot": 0.1428, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.948, "total_progression": 9.1443, "progressive_carries": 0.6526, "shots_off_target": 0.531, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.541, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.103, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 0.846, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.3506, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 9.4614, "accurate_pass": 8.136, "duels_won": 1.3812, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6968, "possession_lost": 3.0151, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.9144, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.3303, "clearances": 0.4821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5496, "xgot": 0.1428, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.948, "total_progression": 9.1443, "progressive_carries": 0.6526, "shots_off_target": 0.531, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.541, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.0814, xG scale 1.3039, xA scale 1.1830, team xA 1.13 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 0.846, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.3506, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 9.4614, "accurate_pass": 8.136, "duels_won": 1.3812, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6968, "possession_lost": 3.0151, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.9144, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.3303, "clearances": 0.4821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5496, "xgot": 0.1007, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.948, "total_progression": 9.1443, "progressive_carries": 0.6526, "shots_off_target": 0.531, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.541, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0673, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0814, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9535, "team_expected_assists": 1.128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3039, "xa_scale": 1.183, "opponent_lambda": 1.574, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.541 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.103, "after": 0.0727 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0291, "after": 0.0186 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 0.846, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.3506, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 9.4614, "accurate_pass": 8.136, "duels_won": 1.3812, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6968, "possession_lost": 3.0151, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.9144, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.3303, "clearances": 0.4821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5496, "xgot": 0.1007, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.948, "total_progression": 9.1443, "progressive_carries": 0.6526, "shots_off_target": 0.531, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.541, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0673, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1404, "fifa_rank": 1074.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3103, "total_shots": 0.846, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "key_pass": 0.3506, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 9.4614, "accurate_pass": 8.136, "duels_won": 1.3812, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6968, "possession_lost": 3.0151, "dispossessed": 0.2321, "duels_lost": 0.9144, "aerial_lost": 0.2321, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0042, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.3303, "clearances": 0.4821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5496, "xgot": 0.1007, "offsides": 0.0039, "ball_carries": 2.948, "total_progression": 9.1443, "progressive_carries": 0.6526, "shots_off_target": 0.531, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.541, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.068, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0673, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.068, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "scorer_weight": 0.0776, "squad_weight_total": 1.5061, "weight_share": 0.0515, "finishing_factor": 1.0673, "appearance_weight": 0.541, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0079, "total": 0.0275, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.434994 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.214033 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.195809 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.074485 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.062855 } ], "others_margin": -0.25396 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.05679154023528099, "model_output": 0.0568, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1356 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0298, "total": 0.0568, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.556297 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.395894 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.174918 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.094674 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.079189 } ], "others_margin": -0.421308 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.15625470876693726, "model_output": 0.1563, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3007 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2229 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.032 } ], "others": -0.2039, "total": 0.1563, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.300729 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.222897 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035528 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.033616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032018 } ], "others_margin": -0.203892 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.756905555725098, "model_output": 6.7569, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1086 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0092, "total": 6.7569, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.108606 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016659 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.015854 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010715 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010433 } ], "others_margin": 0.009194 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.478)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3592, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0383, "assist_rate": 0.0383, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0274, "shots_on_target": 0.0567, "total_shots": 0.1561, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 21.25, "total_pass": 19.559, "accurate_pass": 18.1573, "duels_won": 2.8218, "total_long_balls": 1.1112, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9143, "total_own_half_passes": 7.978, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.5258, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6315, "crosses_total": 0.1523, "crosses_accurate": 0.1359, "touches": 24.7942, "possession_lost": 2.0482, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0251, "aerial_won": 0.1599, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1602, "tackles_won": 0.7117, "tackles": 1.2914, "clearances": 0.1862, "total_contest": 0.6503, "won_contest": 0.3478, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.183, "fouls_drawn": 1.0228, "blocks": 0.1359, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.2965, "total_progression": 33.1635, "progressive_carries": 0.7504, "shots_off_target": 0.0994 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6300000, "quality_factor": 0.4781, "boost_factor": 0.9986, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.2 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3741, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "goals": 0.0285, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "shots_on_target": 0.0591, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 20.372, "accurate_pass": 18.912, "duels_won": 2.9391, "total_long_balls": 1.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9523, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8386, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0734, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 25.8248, "possession_lost": 2.1333, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_won": 0.1665, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1669, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "tackles": 1.3451, "clearances": 0.1939, "total_contest": 0.6773, "won_contest": 0.3623, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0653, "blocks": 0.1415, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7245, "total_progression": 34.542, "progressive_carries": 0.7816, "shots_off_target": 0.1035, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.13, "projection_minutes": 21.25, "minutes_scale": 1.0416, "appearance_probability": 0.506 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3741, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "goals": 0.0285, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "shots_on_target": 0.0591, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 20.372, "accurate_pass": 18.912, "duels_won": 2.9391, "total_long_balls": 1.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9523, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8386, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0734, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 25.8248, "possession_lost": 2.1333, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_won": 0.1665, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1669, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "tackles": 1.3451, "clearances": 0.1939, "total_contest": 0.6773, "won_contest": 0.3623, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0653, "blocks": 0.1415, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7245, "total_progression": 34.542, "progressive_carries": 0.7816, "shots_off_target": 0.1035, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3741, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0591, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 20.372, "accurate_pass": 18.912, "duels_won": 2.9391, "total_long_balls": 1.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9523, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8386, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0734, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 25.8248, "possession_lost": 2.1333, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_won": 0.1665, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1669, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "tackles": 1.3451, "clearances": 0.1939, "total_contest": 0.6773, "won_contest": 0.3623, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0653, "blocks": 0.1415, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7245, "total_progression": 34.542, "progressive_carries": 0.7816, "shots_off_target": 0.1035, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.0814, xG scale 1.3039, xA scale 1.1830, team xA 1.13 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3741, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0102, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0591, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 20.372, "accurate_pass": 18.912, "duels_won": 2.9391, "total_long_balls": 1.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9523, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8386, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0734, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 25.8248, "possession_lost": 2.1333, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_won": 0.1665, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1669, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "tackles": 1.3451, "clearances": 0.1939, "total_contest": 0.6773, "won_contest": 0.3623, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0653, "blocks": 0.1415, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7245, "total_progression": 34.542, "progressive_carries": 0.7816, "shots_off_target": 0.1035, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1985, "creation_factor": 1.095 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0814, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9535, "team_expected_assists": 1.128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3039, "xa_scale": 1.183, "opponent_lambda": 1.574, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.506 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0155, "after": 0.0102 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0321, "after": 0.0192 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3741, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0102, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0591, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 20.372, "accurate_pass": 18.912, "duels_won": 2.9391, "total_long_balls": 1.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9523, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8386, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0734, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 25.8248, "possession_lost": 2.1333, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_won": 0.1665, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1669, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "tackles": 1.3451, "clearances": 0.1939, "total_contest": 0.6773, "won_contest": 0.3623, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0653, "blocks": 0.1415, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7245, "total_progression": 34.542, "progressive_carries": 0.7816, "shots_off_target": 0.1035, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1985, "creation_factor": 1.095, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 963, "fifa_rank": 517.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3741, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0102, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0591, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 20.372, "accurate_pass": 18.912, "duels_won": 2.9391, "total_long_balls": 1.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9523, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8386, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0734, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 25.8248, "possession_lost": 2.1333, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_won": 0.1665, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1669, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "tackles": 1.3451, "clearances": 0.1939, "total_contest": 0.6773, "won_contest": 0.3623, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0653, "blocks": 0.1415, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7245, "total_progression": 34.542, "progressive_carries": 0.7816, "shots_off_target": 0.1035, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0101, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1985, "creation_factor": 1.095, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0101, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "scorer_weight": 0.0122, "squad_weight_total": 1.5061, "weight_share": 0.0081, "finishing_factor": 1.1985, "appearance_weight": 0.506, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.6056, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6056, "runner_up": "Isco", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1952 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3741, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0102, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0591, "total_shots": 0.1626, "rating": 6.7569, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 20.372, "accurate_pass": 18.912, "duels_won": 2.9391, "total_long_balls": 1.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9523, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8386, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0734, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.1415, "touches": 25.8248, "possession_lost": 2.1333, "dispossessed": 0.1438, "duels_lost": 1.0677, "aerial_won": 0.1665, "aerial_lost": 0.0663, "interceptions": 0.1669, "tackles_won": 0.7413, "tackles": 1.3451, "clearances": 0.1939, "total_contest": 0.6773, "won_contest": 0.3623, "challenges_lost": 0.3294, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0653, "blocks": 0.1415, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7245, "total_progression": 34.542, "progressive_carries": 0.7816, "shots_off_target": 0.1035, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.202, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0101, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0188, "finishing_factor": 1.1985, "creation_factor": 1.095, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0188, "assist_rate": 0.0399, "provider_weight": 0.021, "squad_weight_total": 1.0036, "weight_share": 0.0209, "creation_factor": 1.095, "appearance_weight": 0.506, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.2289, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2289, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1784, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.41, "expected_assists": 1.13, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 517, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.98, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Germán Valera", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Junior Firpo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.442, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.431, "xg_contribution": 0.1334, "xg_multiplier": 0.9286, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Junior Firpo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.569 } ], "duel_analysis": "Germán Valera (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Junior Firpo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.133 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ali Houary", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 620000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Fran García" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.485, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "xg_contribution": 0.1363, "xg_multiplier": 0.9919, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Fran García", "role": "LB", "market_value": 6900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.526 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ali Houary (RW) is evenly matched against Fran García in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.136 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Fernando Niño", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Natan", "Diego Llorente" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3386, "xg_multiplier": 0.9056, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Diego Llorente", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fernando Niño (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Natan and Diego Llorente in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.339 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Javi Morcillo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Marc Roca" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "xg_contribution": 0.0385, "xg_multiplier": 0.9782, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Roca", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.595 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javi Morcillo (CDM) is evenly matched against Marc Roca in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Marc Aguado", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.446, "defenders": [ "Marc Roca" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.421, "xg_contribution": 0.0331, "xg_multiplier": 0.9579, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Roca", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.579 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marc Aguado (CM) is evenly matched against Marc Roca in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.033 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo Villar", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Marc Roca" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "xg_contribution": 0.0737, "xg_multiplier": 0.9665, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Roca", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.573 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo Villar (CM) is evenly matched against Marc Roca in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Isco", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Pedro Bigas" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.467, "xg_contribution": 0.153, "xg_multiplier": 0.9814, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Bigas", "role": "RB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.533 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isco (LW) is evenly matched against Pedro Bigas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.153 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Fornals", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Víctor Chust" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.489, "xg_contribution": 0.1632, "xg_multiplier": 1.0131, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Víctor Chust", "role": "LB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.511 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Fornals (RW) is evenly matched against Víctor Chust in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.163 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Giovani Lo Celso", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "Javi Morcillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "xg_contribution": 0.0904, "xg_multiplier": 0.9985, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Morcillo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giovani Lo Celso (CAM) is evenly matched against Javi Morcillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.459, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.317, "xg_contribution": 0.3716, "xg_multiplier": 1.1716, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.683 }, { "player": "Roy Revivo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.683 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (ST) is slightly favored against Buba Sangaré and Roy Revivo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.372 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Marc Roca", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4200000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.452, "defenders": [ "Marc Aguado" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "xg_contribution": 0.0447, "xg_multiplier": 1.0421, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Aguado", "role": "CM", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.571 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marc Roca (CDM) is evenly matched against Marc Aguado in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.045 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Facundo Bernal", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Marc Aguado" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "xg_contribution": 0.0545, "xg_multiplier": 1.1109, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Aguado", "role": "CM", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525 } ], "duel_analysis": "Facundo Bernal (CDM) is slightly favored against Marc Aguado in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.44, "away_midfield_power": 0.531, "home_creative_power": 0.374, "away_creative_power": 0.495, "home_defensive_power": 0.374, "away_defensive_power": 0.413, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.453, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Marc Aguado", "Gonzalo Villar", "Javi Morcillo" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Marc Roca", "Isco", "Pablo Fornals", "Facundo Bernal", "Giovani Lo Celso" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Marc Aguado vs Facundo Bernal", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.986, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.02 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.574, "away_lambda": 1.41, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Germán Valera": { "opponents": [ "Junior Firpo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ali Houary": { "opponents": [ "Fran García" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Fernando Niño": { "opponents": [ "Natan", "Diego Llorente" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Javi Morcillo": { "opponents": [ "Marc Roca", "Giovani Lo Celso", "Isco" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marc Aguado": { "opponents": [ "Marc Roca", "Facundo Bernal", "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo Villar": { "opponents": [ "Marc Roca", "Facundo Bernal" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedro Bigas": { "opponents": [ "Isco" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Víctor Chust": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Buba Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Roy Revivo": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matías Dituro": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Giovani Lo Celso" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Junior Firpo": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Fran García": { "opponents": [ "Ali Houary" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Natan": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diego Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Roca": { "opponents": [ "Javi Morcillo", "Marc Aguado", "Gonzalo Villar" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Isco": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Bigas", "Javi Morcillo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Fornals": { "opponents": [ "Víctor Chust", "Marc Aguado" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Giovani Lo Celso": { "opponents": [ "Javi Morcillo" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli": { "opponents": [ "Buba Sangaré", "Roy Revivo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Facundo Bernal": { "opponents": [ "Marc Aguado", "Gonzalo Villar" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Álvaro Valles": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera", "Ali Houary" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Marc Aguado vs Facundo Bernal will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.75, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9792, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.046, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0395, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9767, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0076, "home_midfield_factor": 0.986, "away_midfield_factor": 1.02, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4473, "away_avg_quality": 0.5297, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0823, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.1726, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.204, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.1215, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2402, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1321, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0769, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7536, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9027 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.986, "result": 0.8901 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 0.9168 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.2301 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9449, "result": 1.1623 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9792, "result": 1.1381 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9767, "result": 1.1116 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.046, "result": 1.1576 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1576, "result": 1.1576, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2402, "factor": 0.9231, "pre": 1.1576, "result": 1.0686 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0686 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1567, "result": 1.2257 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.9852, "result": 1.1709 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1709, "result": 1.171, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.288 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 1.288, "result": 1.2512, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.251 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.251 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.251, "result": 1.251, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.174, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.574 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8774, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9956 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.02, "result": 1.0155 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 1.0053 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0053 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0285, "result": 1.034 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.045 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0076, "result": 1.0529 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0395, "result": 1.0924 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0924, "result": 1.0924, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2402, "factor": 1.1321, "pre": 1.0924, "result": 1.2368 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2368 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1468, "result": 1.3838 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.9877, "result": 1.2935 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2935, "result": 1.294, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.255 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 1.255, "result": 1.2909, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.291 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.291 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.291, "result": 1.291, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.174, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.41 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1567, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1468, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Elche", "away_squad": "Real Betis", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.251, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.291, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1709, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2935, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.174, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.574, "final_away_lambda": 1.41 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9449, "attack_index": 0.967, "defense_concede_index": 0.914, "form_multiplier": 0.964, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.46, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.38, "team_ppg": 1.14, "opponent_ppg": 1.84 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0285, "attack_index": 0.997, "defense_concede_index": 1.057, "form_multiplier": 1.036, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.6, "team_ppg": 1.84, "opponent_ppg": 1.14 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Elche vs Real Betis. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.171, Away 1.294). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.574, Away 1.410 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Elche", "away_squad": "Real Betis", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.574, "away_lambda": 1.41, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.171, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.294 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.174, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:34:40Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }