{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Ipswich", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261108", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.121, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0837, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0863, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2561, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.121 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0863 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0845 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0837 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0821 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0632, "0-1": 0.0863, "0-2": 0.0617, "0-3": 0.029, "0-4": 0.0102, "0-5": 0.0029, "0-6": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.0837, "1-1": 0.121, "1-2": 0.0845, "1-3": 0.0398, "1-4": 0.014, "1-5": 0.004, "1-6": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0582, "2-1": 0.0821, "2-2": 0.0579, "2-3": 0.0272, "2-4": 0.0096, "2-5": 0.0027, "2-6": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0266, "3-1": 0.0375, "3-2": 0.0264, "3-3": 0.0124, "3-4": 0.0044, "3-5": 0.0012, "4-0": 0.0091, "4-1": 0.0128, "4-2": 0.0091, "4-3": 0.0043, "4-4": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0025, "5-1": 0.0035, "5-2": 0.0025, "5-3": 0.0012, "6-0": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.0008, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3626, "draw": 0.2561, "away_win": 0.3813 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.526, "under_2_5_goals": 0.474, "btts_yes": 0.5651, "btts_no": 0.4349, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2439, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2541 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.81, "MCR": 6.96, "ATR": 6.73, "GK": 6.96 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.95, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 7.09, "GK": 6.9 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Ipswich vs Bournemouth. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Ipswich 1W-4D-1L vs Bournemouth over 6 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Emersonn, Rayan", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Julio Enciso vs Alex Scott will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.75. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.64, "home_lambda": 1.37, "away_lambda": 1.411, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 6, "home_wins": 1, "away_wins": 1, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.121, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3626, "draw": 0.2561, "away_win": 0.3813 }, "favorite": "Bournemouth", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3813, "fair_spread": -0.041, "fair_total": 2.781, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.37, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.411, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5651, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2439, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2541, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Emersonn (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.416, "probability": 0.3403, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Rayan (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.4225, "probability": 0.3446, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Julio Enciso (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.2306, "probability": 0.2059, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alex Scott (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.1919, "probability": 0.1746, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.781, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 971, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.7, "possession_home_pct": 50.1, "possession_away_pct": 49.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Bournemouth", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3813, "script": "Bournemouth is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.04 goals and fair total 2.78.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Ipswich must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Bournemouth lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Bournemouth chance creation leans on Rayan against Issa Diop, Jacob Greaves in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Ipswich: starters carry the main goal usage through Emersonn; bench watchlist: Jack Clarke, Azor Matusiwa, Darnell Furlong.", "Bournemouth: starters carry the main goal usage through Rayan; bench watchlist: Eli Junior Kroupi, Alex Tóth, Juanlu Sánchez.", "Assist usage should flow through Julio Enciso, Adrien Truffert; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Bournemouth tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Ipswich is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Bournemouth.", "Ipswich wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Ipswich": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Christian Walton": { "player_id": 198038, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 28, "height": 196, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0503, "rating": 6.9609, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 24, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 45, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.6695, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 16.6897, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3505, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Rayan, Justin Kluivert", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363906.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.1838 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363897.0, "match_date": "2026-10-23", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.046 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363887.0, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.5872 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363877.0, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.2486 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363651.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 17, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.3758 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3741, "combined_rank_score": 1736.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3262.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9609, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Christian Walton", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Josip Juranović", "ranking": 3736 }, { "player_name": "Michel Aebischer", "ranking": 3737 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Borré", "ranking": 3738 }, { "player_name": "Mislav Oršić", "ranking": 3739 }, { "player_name": "Visar Musliu", "ranking": 3740 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Neal Maupay", "ranking": 3742 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Gnonto", "ranking": 3743 }, { "player_name": "Chris Rigg", "ranking": 3744 }, { "player_name": "Mads Bech Sørensen", "ranking": 3745 }, { "player_name": "Gift Links", "ranking": 3746 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.562, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.562, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9899, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7901, "goals_prevented": -0.0508, "rating": 6.9609, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.2438, "accurate_pass": 20.3838, "total_long_balls": 24.1263, "accurate_long_balls": 7.2663, "touches": 45.3329, "clearances": 1.0659, "ball_recovery": 8.2298, "high_claims": 1.0, "punches": 0.6763, "aerial_won": 0.1408, "sweeper_actions": 0.1948, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1948, "saves_inside_box": 1.5604, "possession_lost": 16.86, "duels_won": 0.4104, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2696, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0181, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0582 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-31", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-23", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 14.0582, "accurateLongBalls": 7.2663, "possessionLostCtrl": 16.86, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.0605, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.1948, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.1948 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.7900984287261963, "model_output": 2.7901, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": -0.0254, "total": 2.7901, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.008336 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008025 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.007958 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.006443 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": -0.006347 } ], "others_margin": -0.00909 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.050839222967624664, "model_output": -0.0508, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": 0.0093, "total": -0.0508, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.043656 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.026919 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021452 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.019469 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.016973 } ], "others_margin": 0.009176 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.960880756378174, "model_output": 6.9609, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0197 } ], "others": -0.0353, "total": 6.9609, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.036468 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028189 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.027061 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.024763 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.019675 } ], "others_margin": -0.035326 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1079 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0488 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0187, "total": 0.3709, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.107924 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048793 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.02804 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.016592 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.012133 } ], "others_margin": -0.018696 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.864850044250488, "model_output": 6.8649, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": 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minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0012, quality 0.526)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0645, "tackles": 0.9517, "tackles_won": 0.5989, "clearances": 5.0702, "aerial_won": 1.6315, "total_shots": 0.3714, "rating": 6.8649, "minutes": 89.82, "total_pass": 56.9991, "accurate_pass": 52.0838, "duels_won": 2.488, "total_long_balls": 3.1566, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4304, "total_own_half_passes": 39.3202, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.7216, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3622, "crosses_total": 0.1278, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.6048, "possession_lost": 5.7547, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 1.6283, "aerial_lost": 0.6104, "total_contest": 0.1221, "won_contest": 0.1221, "ball_recovery": 4.4242, "challenges_lost": 0.1241, "fouls": 0.8618, "fouls_drawn": 0.1487, "blocks": 0.8676, "goals": 0.0371, 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0.872 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0645, "after": 1.0714 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3714, "after": 0.3654 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0714, "tackles": 0.9517, "tackles_won": 0.5973, "clearances": 5.0702, "aerial_won": 1.6315, "total_shots": 0.3707, "rating": 6.8649, "minutes": 89.82, "total_pass": 56.9991, "accurate_pass": 52.0838, "duels_won": 2.488, "total_long_balls": 3.1566, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4304, "total_own_half_passes": 39.3202, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.7216, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3622, "crosses_total": 0.1257, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.6048, "possession_lost": 5.7547, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 1.6283, "aerial_lost": 0.6104, "total_contest": 0.1221, "won_contest": 0.1221, "ball_recovery": 4.4242, "challenges_lost": 0.1241, "fouls": 0.872, "fouls_drawn": 0.1463, "blocks": 0.8676, "goals": 0.0365, "goal_rate": 0.0365, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0383, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "shots_on_target": 0.0365, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0364, "ball_carries": 20.5639, "total_progression": 63.0199, "progressive_carries": 0.6506, "key_pass": 0.1442, "shots_off_target": 0.3342 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0714, "tackles": 0.9517, "tackles_won": 0.5973, "clearances": 5.0702, "aerial_won": 1.6315, "total_shots": 0.3707, "rating": 6.8649, "minutes": 89.82, "total_pass": 56.9991, "accurate_pass": 52.0838, "duels_won": 2.488, "total_long_balls": 3.1566, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4304, "total_own_half_passes": 39.3202, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.7216, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3622, "crosses_total": 0.1257, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.6048, "possession_lost": 5.7547, "dispossessed": 0.0437, "duels_lost": 1.6283, "aerial_lost": 0.6104, "total_contest": 0.1221, "won_contest": 0.1221, "ball_recovery": 4.4242, "challenges_lost": 0.1241, "fouls": 0.872, "fouls_drawn": 0.1463, "blocks": 0.8676, "goals": 0.0365, "goal_rate": 0.0365, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0383, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "shots_on_target": 0.0365, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0364, "ball_carries": 20.5639, "total_progression": 63.0199, "progressive_carries": 0.6506, "key_pass": 0.1442, "shots_off_target": 0.3342, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725, "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0564, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0222, "finishing_factor": 0.9796, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.018, "squad_weight_total": 1.0631, "weight_share": 0.0169, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.2576, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2576, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1594, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Emersonn" ] } ] } } ] }, "Leif Davis": { "player_id": 963493, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 182, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { 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0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 6.7423, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014409 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.009554 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008942 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.008928 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008839 } ], "others_margin": -0.005838 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0194, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9265, "tackles": 1.2851, "tackles_won": 0.7174, "clearances": 3.0615, "aerial_won": 1.0632, "total_shots": 0.5185, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.5721, "accurate_pass": 29.0445, "duels_won": 2.173, "total_long_balls": 3.0527, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3851, "total_own_half_passes": 17.335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0789, "crosses_total": 2.7087, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 57.234, "possession_lost": 12.2239, "dispossessed": 0.9414, "duels_lost": 3.0493, "aerial_lost": 0.7271, "total_contest": 0.3298, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3716, "challenges_lost": 0.4821, "fouls": 0.7127, "fouls_drawn": 0.6146, "blocks": 0.6099, "goals": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.1521, "assists": 0.0883, "assist_rate": 0.0883, "expected_goals": 0.1386, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.2159, "big_chances_created": 0.2506, "xgot": 0.1428, "ball_carries": 11.6754, "total_progression": 27.9751, "progressive_carries": 0.4947, "key_pass": 0.5897, "shots_off_target": 0.3026 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0194, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0309)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9288, "tackles": 1.2851, "tackles_won": 0.6952, "clearances": 3.0615, "aerial_won": 1.0632, "total_shots": 0.5334, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.5721, "accurate_pass": 29.0445, "duels_won": 2.173, "total_long_balls": 3.0527, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3851, "total_own_half_passes": 17.335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9657, 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2.7087, "after": 2.6713 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2159, "after": 0.2402 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7174, "after": 0.6952 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7127, "after": 0.6906 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5185, "after": 0.5334 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1521, "after": 0.1629 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9288, "tackles": 1.2851, "tackles_won": 0.6952, "clearances": 3.0615, "aerial_won": 1.0632, "total_shots": 0.5428, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.5721, "accurate_pass": 29.0445, "duels_won": 2.173, "total_long_balls": 3.0527, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3851, "total_own_half_passes": 17.335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0789, "crosses_total": 2.6713, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 57.234, "possession_lost": 12.2239, 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"duels_won": 2.173, "total_long_balls": 3.0527, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3851, "total_own_half_passes": 17.335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0789, "crosses_total": 2.6713, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 57.234, "possession_lost": 12.2239, "dispossessed": 0.9414, "duels_lost": 3.0493, "aerial_lost": 0.7271, "total_contest": 0.3298, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3716, "challenges_lost": 0.4821, "fouls": 0.6906, "fouls_drawn": 0.6111, "blocks": 0.6099, "goals": 0.1629, "goal_rate": 0.1629, "assists": 0.0856, "assist_rate": 0.0856, "expected_goals": 0.1386, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.2402, "big_chances_created": 0.2506, "xgot": 0.1428, "ball_carries": 11.6754, "total_progression": 27.9751, "progressive_carries": 0.4947, "key_pass": 0.5897, "shots_off_target": 0.3026, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.653, "opponent_faced": "Ryan Christie", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ryan Christie", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9288, "tackles": 1.2851, "tackles_won": 0.6952, "clearances": 3.0615, "aerial_won": 1.0632, "total_shots": 0.5428, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.5721, "accurate_pass": 29.0445, "duels_won": 2.173, "total_long_balls": 3.0527, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3851, "total_own_half_passes": 17.335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0789, "crosses_total": 2.6713, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 57.234, "possession_lost": 12.2239, "dispossessed": 0.9414, "duels_lost": 3.0493, "aerial_lost": 0.7271, "total_contest": 0.3298, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3716, "challenges_lost": 0.4821, "fouls": 0.6906, "fouls_drawn": 0.6111, "blocks": 0.6099, "goal_rate": 0.1629, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0856, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1386, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.2402, "big_chances_created": 0.2506, "xgot": 0.1428, "ball_carries": 11.6754, "total_progression": 27.9751, "progressive_carries": 0.4947, "key_pass": 0.5897, "shots_off_target": 0.3026, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.653, "opponent_faced": "Ryan Christie", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 0.9028, xG scale 1.5176, xA scale 1.5176, team xA 0.98 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9288, "tackles": 1.2851, "tackles_won": 0.6952, "clearances": 3.0615, "aerial_won": 1.0632, "total_shots": 0.5428, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.5721, "accurate_pass": 29.0445, "duels_won": 2.173, "total_long_balls": 3.0527, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3851, "total_own_half_passes": 17.335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0789, "crosses_total": 2.6713, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 57.234, "possession_lost": 12.2239, "dispossessed": 0.9414, "duels_lost": 3.0493, "aerial_lost": 0.7271, "total_contest": 0.3298, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3716, "challenges_lost": 0.4821, "fouls": 0.6906, "fouls_drawn": 0.6111, "blocks": 0.6099, "goal_rate": 0.1629, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0856, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2103, "expected_assists": 0.0977, "shots_on_target": 0.2402, "big_chances_created": 0.2506, "xgot": 0.2167, "ball_carries": 11.6754, "total_progression": 27.9751, "progressive_carries": 0.4947, "key_pass": 0.5897, "shots_off_target": 0.3026, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.653, "opponent_faced": "Ryan Christie", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1288, "creation_factor": 1.1853 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.37, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6471, "team_expected_assists": 0.982, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7168, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5176, "xa_scale": 1.5176, "opponent_lambda": 1.411, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1386, "after": 0.2103 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0644, "after": 0.0977 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9288, "tackles": 1.2851, "tackles_won": 0.6952, "clearances": 3.0615, "aerial_won": 1.0632, "total_shots": 0.5428, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.5721, "accurate_pass": 29.0445, "duels_won": 2.173, "total_long_balls": 3.0527, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3851, "total_own_half_passes": 17.335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0789, "crosses_total": 2.6713, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 57.234, "possession_lost": 12.2239, "dispossessed": 0.9414, "duels_lost": 3.0493, "aerial_lost": 0.7271, "total_contest": 0.3298, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3716, "challenges_lost": 0.4821, "fouls": 0.6906, "fouls_drawn": 0.6111, "blocks": 0.6099, "goal_rate": 0.1629, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0856, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2103, "expected_assists": 0.0977, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9288, "tackles": 1.2851, "tackles_won": 0.6952, "clearances": 3.0615, "aerial_won": 1.0632, "total_shots": 0.5428, "rating": 6.7423, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.5721, "accurate_pass": 29.0445, "duels_won": 2.173, "total_long_balls": 3.0527, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3851, "total_own_half_passes": 17.335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9657, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0789, "crosses_total": 2.6713, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 57.234, "possession_lost": 12.2239, "dispossessed": 0.9414, "duels_lost": 3.0493, "aerial_lost": 0.7271, "total_contest": 0.3298, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3716, "challenges_lost": 0.4821, "fouls": 0.6906, 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"name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.317 } ], "others": 0.3533, "total": 6.1231, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.205228 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12985 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.075033 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.057635 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.056513 } ], "others_margin": 0.059429 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.8426713943481445, "model_output": 2.8427, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.6997 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2364 }, { "name": "totalClearance", 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0448 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0095, "total": 0.4785, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.111353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.044838 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.026426 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.016818 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.011212 } ], "others_margin": 0.009358 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.843974590301514, "model_output": 6.844, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { 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in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0145, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2112, "tackles": 1.6434, "tackles_won": 0.9626, "clearances": 6.2119, "aerial_won": 2.8839, "total_shots": 0.4855, "rating": 6.844, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.7837, "accurate_pass": 44.9437, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 7.4353, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1682, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4458, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9003, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4979, "crosses_total": 0.6867, "crosses_accurate": 0.4475, "touches": 72.882, "possession_lost": 11.9323, "dispossessed": 0.3736, "duels_lost": 3.5041, "aerial_lost": 2.0568, "total_contest": 0.5409, "won_contest": 0.3344, "ball_recovery": 3.5492, "challenges_lost": 0.3539, "fouls": 0.5768, "fouls_drawn": 0.784, "blocks": 0.9672, "goals": 0.1216, "goal_rate": 0.1216, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.033, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1099, "ball_carries": 16.4712, "total_progression": 82.362, "progressive_carries": 1.1333, "key_pass": 0.673, "shots_off_target": 0.3638 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0145, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0309)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1892, "tackles": 1.6434, "tackles_won": 0.9483, "clearances": 6.2119, "aerial_won": 2.8839, "total_shots": 0.4859, "rating": 6.844, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.7837, "accurate_pass": 44.9437, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 7.4353, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1682, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4458, 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0.6054 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2112, "after": 1.1892 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9626, "after": 0.9483 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.6867, "after": 0.6964 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.784, "after": 0.7907 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1892, "tackles": 1.6434, "tackles_won": 0.9483, "clearances": 6.2119, "aerial_won": 2.8839, "total_shots": 0.4859, "rating": 6.844, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.7837, "accurate_pass": 44.9437, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 7.4353, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1682, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4458, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9003, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4979, "crosses_total": 0.6964, "crosses_accurate": 0.4475, "touches": 72.882, "possession_lost": 11.9323, "dispossessed": 0.3736, "duels_lost": 3.5041, "aerial_lost": 2.0568, 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"total_own_half_passes": 30.8834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4458, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9003, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4979, "crosses_total": 0.6964, "crosses_accurate": 0.4475, "touches": 72.882, "possession_lost": 11.9323, "dispossessed": 0.3736, "duels_lost": 3.5041, "aerial_lost": 2.0568, "total_contest": 0.5409, "won_contest": 0.3344, "ball_recovery": 3.5492, "challenges_lost": 0.3539, "fouls": 0.6054, "fouls_drawn": 0.7907, "blocks": 0.9672, "goals": 0.1178, "goal_rate": 0.1178, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.033, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "shots_on_target": 0.1178, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1099, "ball_carries": 16.4712, "total_progression": 82.362, "progressive_carries": 1.1333, "key_pass": 0.673, "shots_off_target": 0.3638, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.602, "opponent_faced": "Justin Kluivert", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Justin Kluivert", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1892, "tackles": 1.6434, "tackles_won": 0.9483, "clearances": 6.2119, "aerial_won": 2.8839, "total_shots": 0.4859, "rating": 6.844, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.7837, "accurate_pass": 44.9437, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 7.4353, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1682, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4458, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9003, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4979, "crosses_total": 0.6964, "crosses_accurate": 0.4475, "touches": 72.882, "possession_lost": 11.9323, "dispossessed": 0.3736, "duels_lost": 3.5041, "aerial_lost": 2.0568, "total_contest": 0.5409, "won_contest": 0.3344, "ball_recovery": 3.5492, "challenges_lost": 0.3539, "fouls": 0.6054, "fouls_drawn": 0.7907, "blocks": 0.9672, "goal_rate": 0.1178, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.033, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "shots_on_target": 0.1178, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1099, "ball_carries": 16.4712, "total_progression": 82.362, "progressive_carries": 1.1333, "key_pass": 0.673, "shots_off_target": 0.3638, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.602, "opponent_faced": "Justin Kluivert", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 0.9028, xG scale 1.5176, xA scale 1.5176, team xA 0.98 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1892, "tackles": 1.6434, "tackles_won": 0.9483, "clearances": 6.2119, "aerial_won": 2.8839, "total_shots": 0.4859, "rating": 6.844, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.7837, "accurate_pass": 44.9437, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 7.4353, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1682, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4458, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9003, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4979, "crosses_total": 0.6964, "crosses_accurate": 0.4475, "touches": 72.882, "possession_lost": 11.9323, "dispossessed": 0.3736, "duels_lost": 3.5041, "aerial_lost": 2.0568, "total_contest": 0.5409, "won_contest": 0.3344, "ball_recovery": 3.5492, "challenges_lost": 0.3539, "fouls": 0.6054, "fouls_drawn": 0.7907, "blocks": 0.9672, "goal_rate": 0.1178, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "shots_on_target": 0.1178, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1668, "ball_carries": 16.4712, "total_progression": 82.362, "progressive_carries": 1.1333, "key_pass": 0.673, "shots_off_target": 0.3638, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.602, "opponent_faced": "Justin Kluivert", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.37, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6471, "team_expected_assists": 0.982, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7168, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5176, "xa_scale": 1.5176, "opponent_lambda": 1.411, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.033, "after": 0.0501 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0264, "after": 0.0401 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0795 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0778, "total": 0.3273, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.079539 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049097 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018566 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017905 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009223 } ], "others_margin": -0.077845 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.770987510681152, "model_output": 6.771, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": 0.0233, "total": 6.771, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015178 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010043 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009785 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008545 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.007645 } ], "others_margin": 0.023402 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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14.9649, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2213, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.4724, "possession_lost": 5.3557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.27, "aerial_lost": 1.3235, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.8811, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.8628, "fouls_drawn": 1.1303, "blocks": 1.1765, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.006, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.2097, "total_progression": 27.5052, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4706, "shots_off_target": 0.3316, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725, "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 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}, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0426 } ], "others": -0.1713, "total": 0.5186, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.28387 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128137 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.048466 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048052 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.042559 } ], "others_margin": -0.1715 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.003950595855713, "model_output": 7.004, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0883 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0358 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0185 } ], "others": 0.0131, "total": 7.004, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.088281 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.035836 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028292 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019248 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018505 } ], "others_margin": 0.012968 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0004, quality 0.515)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9718, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "assists": 0.1012, "assist_rate": 0.1012, "expected_goals": 0.0449, "goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0496, "shots_on_target": 0.1659, "total_shots": 0.5189, "rating": 7.004, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 49.0149, "accurate_pass": 43.589, "duels_won": 3.2687, "total_long_balls": 1.8729, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8753, "total_own_half_passes": 20.6595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9292, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.3554, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6599, "crosses_total": 2.0678, "crosses_accurate": 0.2259, "touches": 61.6084, "possession_lost": 8.4962, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 4.5782, "aerial_won": 0.4507, "aerial_lost": 0.8471, "interceptions": 1.0645, "tackles_won": 0.9597, "tackles": 2.059, "clearances": 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"importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1174 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0779 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0728 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0368 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0372 } ], "others": 0.1496, "total": 0.8096, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.31439 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.164613 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132696 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060917 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.058052 } ], "others_margin": 0.204245 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.4765825271606445, "model_output": 2.4766, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.7749 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1945 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.1591 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.1559 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1428 } ], "others": 0.0645, "total": 2.4766, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.77493 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.194528 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.159097 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.155942 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.142819 } ], "others_margin": 0.064331 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.036831855773926, "model_output": 7.0368, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.084 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.021 } ], "others": 0.0462, "total": 7.0368, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.084015 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.029542 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024333 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.022988 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.021007 } ], "others_margin": 0.04621 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0211, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8063, "expected_assists": 0.152, "assists": 0.1513, "assist_rate": 0.1513, "expected_goals": 0.2057, "goals": 0.1953, "goal_rate": 0.1953, "shots_on_target": 0.8267, "total_shots": 2.5288, "rating": 7.0368, "minutes": 83.16, "total_pass": 24.0362, "accurate_pass": 19.5287, "duels_won": 4.8307, "total_long_balls": 1.118, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4379, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1643, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2338, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8718, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2948, "crosses_total": 1.0371, "crosses_accurate": 0.4658, "touches": 44.3339, "possession_lost": 12.7249, "dispossessed": 2.132, "duels_lost": 7.382, "aerial_won": 0.0884, "aerial_lost": 0.4673, "interceptions": 0.3487, "tackles_won": 0.631, "tackles": 1.0968, "clearances": 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6.8309, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032728 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018495 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.018185 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011883 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.009718 } ], "others_margin": -0.020395 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5369, "expected_assists": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0502, "assist_rate": 0.0502, "expected_goals": 0.0495, "goals": 0.0522, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "shots_on_target": 0.1788, "total_shots": 0.612, "rating": 6.8309, "minutes": 76.36, "total_pass": 37.7142, "accurate_pass": 32.2195, "duels_won": 3.8755, "total_long_balls": 2.1337, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2864, "total_own_half_passes": 17.4077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3467, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3065, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8728, "crosses_total": 0.3423, "crosses_accurate": 0.1002, "touches": 50.4398, "possession_lost": 7.6012, "dispossessed": 0.4969, "duels_lost": 4.6401, "aerial_won": 0.942, "aerial_lost": 1.0215, "interceptions": 1.5607, "tackles_won": 1.6661, "tackles": 2.5622, "clearances": 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"expected_assists": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0502, "assist_rate": 0.0502, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "goals": 0.0499, "goal_rate": 0.0499, "shots_on_target": 0.1708, "total_shots": 0.5846, "rating": 6.8309, "minutes": 76.36, "total_pass": 37.7142, "accurate_pass": 32.2195, "duels_won": 3.8755, "total_long_balls": 2.1337, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2864, "total_own_half_passes": 17.4077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3467, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3065, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8728, "crosses_total": 0.3423, "crosses_accurate": 0.1002, "touches": 50.4398, "possession_lost": 7.6012, "dispossessed": 0.4969, "duels_lost": 4.6401, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0215, "interceptions": 1.5607, "tackles_won": 1.6661, "tackles": 2.5622, "clearances": 1.931, "total_contest": 0.6892, "won_contest": 0.1699, "challenges_lost": 1.2506, "fouls": 1.431, "fouls_drawn": 0.2015, "blocks": 0.2839, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0085, "xgot": 0.0588, "ball_carries": 9.2952, 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 0.9028, xG scale 1.5176, xA scale 1.5176, team xA 0.98 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5369, "expected_assists": 0.0571, "assist_rate": 0.0502, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.0499, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1708, "total_shots": 0.5846, "rating": 6.8309, "minutes": 76.36, "total_pass": 37.7142, "accurate_pass": 32.2195, "duels_won": 3.8755, "total_long_balls": 2.1337, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2864, "total_own_half_passes": 17.4077, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.3467, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3065, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8728, "crosses_total": 0.3423, "crosses_accurate": 0.1002, "touches": 50.4398, "possession_lost": 7.6012, 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"creation_factor": 1.1438 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.37, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6471, "team_expected_assists": 0.982, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7168, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5176, "xa_scale": 1.5176, "opponent_lambda": 1.411, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0473, "after": 0.0718 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0376, "after": 0.0571 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1849 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0628 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0398 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0371 } ], "others": -0.0409, "total": 0.654, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.236874 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074334 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.052986 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.052958 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.052006 } ], "others_margin": -0.060721 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.725520133972168, "model_output": 6.7255, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0492, "total": 6.7255, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048336 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015623 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011386 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.010416 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009507 } ], "others_margin": -0.049219 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0175, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.298, "goals": 0.2919, "goal_rate": 0.2919, "shots_on_target": 0.6919, "total_shots": 2.0997, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "key_pass": 0.6654, "rating": 6.7255, "minutes": 71.33, "total_pass": 10.075, "accurate_pass": 6.9796, "duels_won": 5.7298, "total_long_balls": 0.0637, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5421, "crosses_total": 0.0541, "crosses_accurate": 0.0541, "touches": 25.1163, "possession_lost": 9.269, "dispossessed": 1.1465, "duels_lost": 7.022, "aerial_lost": 4.0103, "total_contest": 1.5989, "won_contest": 1.0362, "ball_recovery": 1.1369, "challenges_lost": 0.3858, "fouls": 0.9168, "fouls_drawn": 1.6671, "assists": 0.0881, "assist_rate": 0.0881, "interceptions": 0.122, "tackles_won": 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.6538 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2677, "combined_rank_score": 935.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 81.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1790.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9683, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kjell Scherpen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Stanislav Shopov", "ranking": 2672 }, { "player_name": "Lim Hyung-jin", "ranking": 2673 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Quaresma", "ranking": 2674 }, { "player_name": "Marco Friedl", "ranking": 2675 }, { "player_name": "Jeong Yong-hee", "ranking": 2676 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Keny Arroyo", "ranking": 2678 }, { "player_name": "Carles Gil", "ranking": 2679 }, { "player_name": "Petar Musa", "ranking": 2680 }, { "player_name": "Štěpán Chaloupek", "ranking": 2681 }, { "player_name": "Park Tae-yong", "ranking": 2682 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.52, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.52, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.798067743081427, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.14, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0058, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (4 historical appearances) to 4.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.14); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.0011, "goals_prevented": -0.1406, "rating": 6.9683, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 30.9959, "accurate_pass": 19.1499, "total_long_balls": 17.0948, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8294, "touches": 45.8638, "clearances": 1.8143, "ball_recovery": 9.5662, "high_claims": 2.0464, "punches": 0.96, "aerial_won": 0.8544, "sweeper_actions": 1.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7191, "saves_inside_box": 1.6802, "possession_lost": 12.846, "duels_won": 1.0471, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1927, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9381, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5717 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 15.5718, "accurateLongBalls": 5.8294, "possessionLostCtrl": 12.846, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.0273, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.5806, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7191 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.0010528564453125, "model_output": 3.0011, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1093 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0983 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0681 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0299, "total": 3.0011, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.038118 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.034358 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.023126 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.007921 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.005255 } ], "others_margin": 0.009987 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.1406460553407669, "model_output": -0.1406, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0493 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0369 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0257 } ], "others": -0.0763, "total": -0.1406, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.04933 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.036929 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.028677 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.026597 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.025727 } ], "others_margin": -0.07631 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.968300819396973, "model_output": 6.9683, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0571, "total": 6.9683, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.02661 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.022816 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017056 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015489 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012697 } ], "others_margin": -0.057104 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.540)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0185, "goals_prevented": -0.1415, "rating": 6.9683, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 31.1757, "accurate_pass": 19.261, "total_long_balls": 17.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8632, "touches": 46.1298, "clearances": 1.8248, "ball_recovery": 9.6217, "high_claims": 2.0583, "punches": 0.9656, "aerial_won": 0.8594, "sweeper_actions": 1.0058, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7233, "saves_inside_box": 1.6899, "possession_lost": 12.9205, "duels_won": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1938, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.662 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11500000, "quality_factor": 0.5399, "boost_factor": 1.0058, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0481)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9342, "goals_prevented": -0.1415, "rating": 6.9683, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 31.1757, "accurate_pass": 19.261, "total_long_balls": 17.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8632, "touches": 46.1298, "clearances": 1.8248, "ball_recovery": 9.6217, "high_claims": 2.0583, "punches": 0.9656, "aerial_won": 0.8594, "sweeper_actions": 1.0058, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7233, "saves_inside_box": 1.6899, "possession_lost": 12.9205, "duels_won": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1921, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.662 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0481, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 3.0185, "after": 2.9342 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.14)", "stats": { "saves": 0.494, "goals_prevented": -0.0238, "rating": 6.9683, "minutes": 4.8, "total_pass": 5.2485, "accurate_pass": 3.2427, "total_long_balls": 2.8946, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9871, "touches": 7.7661, "clearances": 0.3072, "ball_recovery": 1.6198, "high_claims": 0.3465, "punches": 0.1626, "aerial_won": 0.1447, "sweeper_actions": 0.1693, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1218, "saves_inside_box": 0.2845, "possession_lost": 2.1752, "duels_won": 0.1773, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0374, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.14, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.8, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1684, "appearance_probability": 0.14 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.494, "goals_prevented": -0.0238, "rating": 6.9683, "minutes": 4.8, "total_pass": 5.2485, "accurate_pass": 3.2427, "total_long_balls": 2.8946, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9871, "touches": 7.7661, "clearances": 0.3072, "ball_recovery": 1.6198, "high_claims": 0.3465, "punches": 0.1626, "aerial_won": 0.1447, "sweeper_actions": 0.1693, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1218, "saves_inside_box": 0.2845, "possession_lost": 2.1752, "duels_won": 0.1773, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0374, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.14, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.494, "goals_prevented": -0.0238, "rating": 6.9683, "minutes": 4.8, "total_pass": 5.2485, "accurate_pass": 3.2427, "total_long_balls": 2.8946, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9871, "touches": 7.7661, "clearances": 0.3072, "ball_recovery": 1.6198, "high_claims": 0.3465, "punches": 0.1626, "aerial_won": 0.1447, "sweeper_actions": 0.1693, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1218, "saves_inside_box": 0.2845, "possession_lost": 2.1752, "duels_won": 0.1773, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0374, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.14, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.8, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.14, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.494, "goals_prevented": -0.0238, "rating": 6.9683, "minutes": 4.8, "total_pass": 5.2485, "accurate_pass": 3.2427, "total_long_balls": 2.8946, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9871, "touches": 7.7661, "clearances": 0.3072, "ball_recovery": 1.6198, "high_claims": 0.3465, "punches": 0.1626, "aerial_won": 0.1447, "sweeper_actions": 0.1693, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1218, "saves_inside_box": 0.2845, "possession_lost": 2.1752, "duels_won": 0.1773, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0374, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6367, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.14, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.8, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2677, "fifa_rank": 1790.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Cédric Kipré": { "player_id": 886802, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 196, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.006, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3451, "combined_rank_score": 1448.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2678.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cédric Kipré", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ben Davies", "ranking": 3446 }, { "player_name": "Iván Romero", "ranking": 3447 }, { "player_name": "Josh Acheampong", "ranking": 3448 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Yates", "ranking": 3449 }, { "player_name": "Scott McKenna", "ranking": 3450 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Connor Roberts", "ranking": 3452 }, { "player_name": "Florentino", "ranking": 3453 }, { "player_name": "Marco Sportiello", "ranking": 3454 }, { "player_name": "Arsène Kouassi", "ranking": 3455 }, { "player_name": "Leif Davis", "ranking": 3456 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.572222187561248, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.2987373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€2,700,000) scaled to 13.6 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, 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0.039907 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.036622 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.035954 } ], "others_margin": -0.026234 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3811729848384857, "model_output": 0.3812, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1951 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4547 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 0.3812, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.76812 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.070722 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.044721 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.042867 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.03456 } ], "others_margin": -0.049462 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.8924057483673096, "model_output": 0.8924, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.248 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2625 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1071 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0464 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0412 } ], "others": 0.1819, "total": 0.8924, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.073367 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.254605 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.125944 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.059933 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056418 } ], "others_margin": 0.228048 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6431611180305481, "model_output": 0.6432, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8382 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1177 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0957 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0457 } ], "others": -0.099, "total": 0.6432, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.94664 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.200077 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.137517 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.06722 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.063617 } ], "others_margin": -0.143305 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.29021185636520386, "model_output": 0.2902, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1505 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0571 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0405 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0155 } ], "others": -0.02, "total": 0.2902, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.150497 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.057091 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.040531 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.019447 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.015491 } ], "others_margin": -0.020023 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.700375556945801, "model_output": 6.7004, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0425, "total": 6.7004, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.03577 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.029897 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.020169 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.01528 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014486 } ], "others_margin": -0.042596 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9831, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3446, "tackles": 0.6106, "tackles_won": 0.3747, "clearances": 0.8773, "aerial_won": 0.6323, "total_shots": 0.2853, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 12.7803, "accurate_pass": 8.8479, "duels_won": 2.9493, "total_long_balls": 0.9831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9493, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6789, "possession_lost": 4.9155, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9662, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9831, "total_progression": 12.7098, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2853 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9831, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3492, "tackles": 0.6106, "tackles_won": 0.372, "clearances": 0.8773, "aerial_won": 0.6323, "total_shots": 0.2832, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 12.7803, "accurate_pass": 8.8479, "duels_won": 2.9493, "total_long_balls": 0.9831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9493, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6789, "possession_lost": 4.9155, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9662, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9831, "total_progression": 12.7098, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2853 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 1, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1963, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 16.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2585, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.01, "projection_minutes": 17.67, "minutes_scale": 0.9061, "appearance_probability": 0.602 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2585, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2585, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 0.9028, xG scale 1.5176, xA scale 1.5176, team xA 0.98 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2585, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.37, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6471, "team_expected_assists": 0.982, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7168, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5176, "xa_scale": 1.5176, "opponent_lambda": 1.411, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.602 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2585, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4135, "fifa_rank": 3264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, 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"eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Emersonn", "weight": 0.4169, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4169, "runner_up": "Julio Enciso", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2665 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, 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"contribution": -0.0246 } ], "others": -0.1327, "total": 0.2282, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.318608 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.210281 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042233 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028347 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.024641 } ], "others_margin": -0.132579 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.712705612182617, "model_output": 6.7127, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0872 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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0.9719 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4667, "after": 0.4501 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4667, "after": 0.4501 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4667, "after": 0.4501 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.393, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0532, "expected_goals": 0.0202, "goals": 0.0385, "goal_rate": 0.0385, "shots_on_target": 0.1032, "total_shots": 0.2697, "rating": 6.7127, "minutes": 22.53, "total_pass": 41.5669, "accurate_pass": 35.9031, "duels_won": 2.8644, "total_long_balls": 2.5064, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8555, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8702, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6967, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9859, "crosses_total": 1.1524, "crosses_accurate": 0.5534, "touches": 55.0753, "possession_lost": 8.7234, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1665, "aerial_won": 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"fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.8553, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.977, "total_progression": 1.4829, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1665, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.318, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.53, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.318, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.393, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0532, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0202, "goal_rate": 0.0385, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1032, "total_shots": 0.2697, "rating": 6.7127, "minutes": 22.53, "total_pass": 41.5669, "accurate_pass": 35.9031, "duels_won": 2.8644, "total_long_balls": 2.5064, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8555, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8702, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6967, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9859, "crosses_total": 1.1524, "crosses_accurate": 0.5534, "touches": 55.0753, "possession_lost": 8.7234, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1665, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5337, "tackles_won": 0.5337, "tackles": 1.7578, "clearances": 2.4087, "total_contest": 1.1067, "won_contest": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 3.0471, "fouls": 0.5337, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.8553, 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}, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363887.0, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3215, "combined_rank_score": 1165.0, "ranking_source": 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"data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", 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from XGBoost F_service (8 historical appearances) to 26.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.35); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goals": 0.0728, "goal_rate": 0.0728, "shots_on_target": 0.1969, "total_shots": 0.6773, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "key_pass": 0.4171, "rating": 6.6813, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 15.4608, "accurate_pass": 11.2239, "duels_won": 4.7884, "total_long_balls": 1.7247, "accurate_long_balls": 0.557, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0602, "crosses_total": 2.9896, "crosses_accurate": 0.904, "touches": 32.4883, "possession_lost": 11.9331, "dispossessed": 1.25, "duels_lost": 6.0277, "aerial_lost": 1.134, "total_contest": 3.5623, "won_contest": 1.5461, "ball_recovery": 2.5509, "challenges_lost": 0.5213, "fouls": 1.2329, "fouls_drawn": 1.532, 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"opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accuratePass": 11.2239, "expectedGoals": 0.0581, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 7.0602, "totalShots": 1.0238, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.9877 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05850246176123619, "model_output": 0.0585, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2767 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0987 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0236 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1929, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0838 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0203, "total": 0.0585, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.645586, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.570021 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.151125 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.061825 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.05989 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.053754 } ], "others_margin": -0.296487 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07277557253837585, "model_output": 0.0728, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1491 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0805 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.056 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1972, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0795 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0061 } ], "others": -0.0106, "total": 0.0728, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.623746, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.51608 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.100718 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.091828 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.081146 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.07117 } ], "others_margin": -0.135686 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.19687792658805847, "model_output": 0.1969, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2173 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5269, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0369, "total": 0.1969, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.640773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.563138 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.076798 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.076281 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.053562 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.042655 } ], "others_margin": -0.171963 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6772968769073486, "model_output": 0.6773, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0526 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0309 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0307 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3756, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4676 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1022 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0324 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0252 } ], "others": -0.0729, "total": 0.6773, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.375643, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.467607 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.102181 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.048355 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.032385 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.025181 } ], "others_margin": -0.072998 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0517008900642395, "model_output": 0.0517, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1287 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.002 } ], "others": 0.0053, "total": 0.0517, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.373238 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.138774 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.099756 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04801 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.044978 } ], "others_margin": 0.108296 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4170548915863037, "model_output": 0.4171, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2506 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0186 } ], "others": -0.0257, "total": 0.4171, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.449892 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.056522 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.054517 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.046913 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.041221 } ], "others_margin": -0.059748 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.681343078613281, "model_output": 6.6813, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0566 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": 0.0097, "total": 6.6813, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056561 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031809 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014333 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.013331 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.012287 } ], "others_margin": 0.009667 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0189, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goals": 0.0742, "goal_rate": 0.0742, "shots_on_target": 0.2006, "total_shots": 0.6901, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "key_pass": 0.4249, "rating": 6.6813, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 15.753, "accurate_pass": 11.436, "duels_won": 4.8789, "total_long_balls": 1.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5675, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1765, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1936, "crosses_total": 3.0461, "crosses_accurate": 0.9211, "touches": 33.1023, "possession_lost": 12.1586, "dispossessed": 1.2736, "duels_lost": 6.1416, "aerial_lost": 1.1554, "total_contest": 3.6296, "won_contest": 1.5753, "ball_recovery": 2.5991, "challenges_lost": 0.5312, "fouls": 1.2562, "fouls_drawn": 1.561, "assists": 0.0793, "assist_rate": 0.0793, "interceptions": 0.5283, "tackles_won": 0.8136, "tackles": 1.2365, "clearances": 0.2821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3905, "big_chances_missed": 0.2312, "xgot": 0.0044, "offsides": 0.2578, "ball_carries": 13.2405, "total_progression": 87.4086, "progressive_carries": 2.8896, "shots_off_target": 0.4895 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0189, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0267)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goals": 0.0722, "goal_rate": 0.0722, "shots_on_target": 0.1952, "total_shots": 0.6717, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "key_pass": 0.4249, "rating": 6.6813, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 15.753, "accurate_pass": 11.436, "duels_won": 4.8789, "total_long_balls": 1.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5675, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1765, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1936, "crosses_total": 3.0013, "crosses_accurate": 0.9211, "touches": 33.1023, "possession_lost": 12.1586, "dispossessed": 1.2736, "duels_lost": 6.1416, "aerial_lost": 1.1554, "total_contest": 3.6296, "won_contest": 1.5753, "ball_recovery": 2.5991, "challenges_lost": 0.5312, "fouls": 1.23, "fouls_drawn": 1.5303, "assists": 0.0808, "assist_rate": 0.0808, "interceptions": 0.5179, "tackles_won": 0.8028, "tackles": 1.2365, "clearances": 0.2821, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3905, "big_chances_missed": 0.2312, "xgot": 0.0044, "offsides": 0.2546, "ball_carries": 13.2405, "total_progression": 87.4086, "progressive_carries": 2.8896, "shots_off_target": 0.4895 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0267, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2186, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.0461, "after": 3.0013 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.561, "after": 1.5303 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2562, "after": 1.23 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6901, "after": 0.6717 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8136, "after": 0.8028 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5283, "after": 0.5179 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2006, "after": 0.1952 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.7 to 26.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0794, "goals": 0.0962, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "shots_on_target": 0.2601, "total_shots": 0.9123, "expected_assists": 0.0702, "key_pass": 0.5661, "rating": 6.6813, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 20.9885, "accurate_pass": 15.2368, "duels_won": 6.5004, "total_long_balls": 2.3413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7561, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5844, "crosses_total": 3.9988, "crosses_accurate": 1.2272, "touches": 44.1039, "possession_lost": 16.1995, "dispossessed": 1.2736, "duels_lost": 8.1828, "aerial_lost": 1.1554, "total_contest": 4.8359, "won_contest": 2.0989, "ball_recovery": 3.4629, "challenges_lost": 0.5312, "fouls": 1.6388, "fouls_drawn": 2.0389, "assists": 0.1077, "assist_rate": 0.1077, "interceptions": 0.69, "tackles_won": 1.0696, "tackles": 1.6475, "clearances": 0.3759, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5203, "big_chances_missed": 0.308, "xgot": 0.0059, "offsides": 0.2546, "ball_carries": 17.641, "total_progression": 116.459, "progressive_carries": 3.85, "shots_off_target": 0.6522, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.353, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.21, "projection_minutes": 19.67, "minutes_scale": 1.3324, "appearance_probability": 0.353 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0794, "goals": 0.0962, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "shots_on_target": 0.2601, "total_shots": 0.9123, "expected_assists": 0.0702, "key_pass": 0.5661, "rating": 6.6813, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 20.9885, "accurate_pass": 15.2368, "duels_won": 6.5004, "total_long_balls": 2.3413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7561, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5844, "crosses_total": 3.9988, "crosses_accurate": 1.2272, "touches": 44.1039, "possession_lost": 16.1995, "dispossessed": 1.2736, "duels_lost": 8.1828, "aerial_lost": 1.1554, "total_contest": 4.8359, "won_contest": 2.0989, "ball_recovery": 3.4629, "challenges_lost": 0.5312, "fouls": 1.6388, "fouls_drawn": 2.0389, "assists": 0.1077, "assist_rate": 0.1077, "interceptions": 0.69, "tackles_won": 1.0696, "tackles": 1.6475, "clearances": 0.3759, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5203, "big_chances_missed": 0.308, "xgot": 0.0059, "offsides": 0.2546, "ball_carries": 17.641, "total_progression": 116.459, "progressive_carries": 3.85, "shots_off_target": 0.6522, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.353, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2601, "total_shots": 0.9123, "expected_assists": 0.0702, "key_pass": 0.5661, "rating": 6.6813, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 20.9885, "accurate_pass": 15.2368, "duels_won": 6.5004, "total_long_balls": 2.3413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7561, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5844, "crosses_total": 3.9988, "crosses_accurate": 1.2272, "touches": 44.1039, "possession_lost": 16.1995, "dispossessed": 1.2736, "duels_lost": 8.1828, "aerial_lost": 1.1554, "total_contest": 4.8359, "won_contest": 2.0989, "ball_recovery": 3.4629, "challenges_lost": 0.5312, "fouls": 1.6388, "fouls_drawn": 2.0389, "assist_rate": 0.1077, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.69, "tackles_won": 1.0696, 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"importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2407 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0162 } ], "others": -0.004, "total": 0.4485, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.427637 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.049362 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049038 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.038235 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.035222 } ], "others_margin": -0.009033 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.688679218292236, "model_output": 6.6887, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 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6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0157, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0575, "goals": 0.0616, "goal_rate": 0.0616, "shots_on_target": 0.1783, "total_shots": 0.6262, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "key_pass": 0.4555, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 21.59, "total_pass": 11.8901, "accurate_pass": 8.5939, "duels_won": 1.0502, "total_long_balls": 0.7779, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2553, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0913, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9229, "crosses_total": 0.9957, "crosses_accurate": 0.1502, "touches": 17.1261, "possession_lost": 5.2934, "dispossessed": 0.7569, "duels_lost": 1.963, "aerial_lost": 0.4158, "total_contest": 0.3581, "won_contest": 0.2079, "ball_recovery": 1.9208, "challenges_lost": 0.3044, "fouls": 0.3356, "fouls_drawn": 0.4893, "assists": 0.1502, "assist_rate": 0.1502, "interceptions": 0.1277, 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"crosses_total": 0.9924, "crosses_accurate": 0.1502, "touches": 17.1261, "possession_lost": 5.2934, "dispossessed": 0.7569, "duels_lost": 1.963, "aerial_lost": 0.4158, "total_contest": 0.3581, "won_contest": 0.2079, "ball_recovery": 1.9208, "challenges_lost": 0.3044, "fouls": 0.3345, "fouls_drawn": 0.4877, "assists": 0.1497, "assist_rate": 0.1497, "interceptions": 0.1273, "tackles_won": 0.356, "tackles": 0.3532, "clearances": 0.1502, "blocks": 0.1767, "big_chances_created": 0.1719, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0681, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.5046, "total_progression": 48.0113, "progressive_carries": 2.1239, "shots_off_target": 0.4478 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0033, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2399, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6262, "after": 0.6313 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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2.0676, "aerial_lost": 0.4158, "total_contest": 0.3772, "won_contest": 0.219, "ball_recovery": 2.0231, "challenges_lost": 0.3044, "fouls": 0.3523, "fouls_drawn": 0.5137, "assists": 0.1577, "assist_rate": 0.1577, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.372, "tackles": 0.372, "clearances": 0.1582, "blocks": 0.1861, "big_chances_created": 0.1811, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0717, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8511, "total_progression": 50.5686, "progressive_carries": 2.237, "shots_off_target": 0.4717, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.735, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0606, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.6649, "expected_assists": 0.057, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 22.74, "total_pass": 12.5234, "accurate_pass": 9.0517, "duels_won": 1.1061, "total_long_balls": 0.8193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2689, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2384, "crosses_total": 1.0453, "crosses_accurate": 0.1582, "touches": 18.0383, "possession_lost": 5.5754, "dispossessed": 0.7569, "duels_lost": 2.0676, "aerial_lost": 0.4158, "total_contest": 0.3772, "won_contest": 0.219, "ball_recovery": 2.0231, "challenges_lost": 0.3044, "fouls": 0.3523, "fouls_drawn": 0.5137, "assist_rate": 0.1577, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.372, "tackles": 0.372, "clearances": 0.1582, "blocks": 0.1861, "big_chances_created": 0.1811, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0717, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8511, "total_progression": 50.5686, "progressive_carries": 2.237, "shots_off_target": 0.4717, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.735, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 0.9028, xG scale 1.5176, xA scale 1.5176, team xA 0.98 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.6649, "expected_assists": 0.0636, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 22.74, "total_pass": 12.5234, "accurate_pass": 9.0517, "duels_won": 1.1061, "total_long_balls": 0.8193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2689, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2384, "crosses_total": 1.0453, "crosses_accurate": 0.1582, "touches": 18.0383, "possession_lost": 5.5754, "dispossessed": 0.7569, "duels_lost": 2.0676, "aerial_lost": 0.4158, "total_contest": 0.3772, "won_contest": 0.219, "ball_recovery": 2.0231, "challenges_lost": 0.3044, "fouls": 0.3523, "fouls_drawn": 0.5137, "assist_rate": 0.1577, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.372, "tackles": 0.372, "clearances": 0.1582, "blocks": 0.1861, "big_chances_created": 0.1811, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.08, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8511, "total_progression": 50.5686, "progressive_carries": 2.237, "shots_off_target": 0.4717, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.735, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.075, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.37, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6471, "team_expected_assists": 0.982, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7168, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5176, "xa_scale": 1.5176, "opponent_lambda": 1.411, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.735 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0606, "after": 0.0676 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.057, "after": 0.0636 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.427637 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.049362 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049038 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.038235 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.035222 } ], "others_margin": -0.009033 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.688679218292236, "model_output": 6.6887, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0641 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 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"expected_assists": 0.057, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 22.74, "total_pass": 12.5234, "accurate_pass": 9.0517, "duels_won": 1.1061, "total_long_balls": 0.8193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2689, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5756, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2384, "crosses_total": 1.0453, "crosses_accurate": 0.1582, "touches": 18.0383, "possession_lost": 5.5754, "dispossessed": 0.7569, "duels_lost": 2.0676, "aerial_lost": 0.4158, "total_contest": 0.3772, "won_contest": 0.219, "ball_recovery": 2.0231, "challenges_lost": 0.3044, "fouls": 0.3523, "fouls_drawn": 0.5137, "assist_rate": 0.1577, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1341, "tackles_won": 0.372, "tackles": 0.372, "clearances": 0.1582, "blocks": 0.1861, "big_chances_created": 0.1811, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0717, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8511, "total_progression": 50.5686, "progressive_carries": 2.237, "shots_off_target": 0.4717, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.735, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 0.9028, xG scale 1.5176, xA scale 1.5176, team xA 0.98 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "total_shots": 0.6649, "expected_assists": 0.0636, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 22.74, "total_pass": 12.5234, "accurate_pass": 9.0517, "duels_won": 1.1061, "total_long_balls": 0.8193, "accurate_long_balls": 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"model_output": 0.6432, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8382 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1177 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0957 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0457 } ], "others": -0.099, "total": 0.6432, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.94664 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.200077 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.137517 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.06722 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.063617 } ], "others_margin": -0.143305 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.29021185636520386, "model_output": 0.2902, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1505 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0571 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0405 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0155 } ], "others": -0.02, "total": 0.2902, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.150497 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.057091 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.040531 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.019447 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.015491 } ], "others_margin": -0.020023 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.700375556945801, "model_output": 6.7004, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0425, "total": 6.7004, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.03577 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.029897 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.020169 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.01528 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014486 } ], "others_margin": -0.042596 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9831, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3446, "tackles": 0.6106, "tackles_won": 0.3747, "clearances": 0.8773, "aerial_won": 0.6323, "total_shots": 0.2853, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 12.7803, "accurate_pass": 8.8479, "duels_won": 2.9493, "total_long_balls": 0.9831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9493, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6789, "possession_lost": 4.9155, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9662, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9831, "total_progression": 12.7098, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2853 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9831, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3492, "tackles": 0.6106, "tackles_won": 0.372, "clearances": 0.8773, "aerial_won": 0.6323, "total_shots": 0.2832, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 12.7803, "accurate_pass": 8.8479, "duels_won": 2.9493, "total_long_balls": 0.9831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9493, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6789, "possession_lost": 4.9155, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9662, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9831, "total_progression": 12.7098, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2853 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 1, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1963, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 16.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2585, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.01, "projection_minutes": 17.67, "minutes_scale": 0.9061, "appearance_probability": 0.602 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2585, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2585, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 0.9028, xG scale 1.5176, xA scale 1.5176, team xA 0.98 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2585, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.37, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6471, "team_expected_assists": 0.982, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7168, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5176, "xa_scale": 1.5176, "opponent_lambda": 1.411, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.602 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2585, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4135, "fifa_rank": 3264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2585, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.4124, "weight_share": 0.0007, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.602, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Emersonn", "weight": 0.4169, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4169, "runner_up": "Julio Enciso", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2665 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.5532, "tackles_won": 0.3371, "clearances": 0.7949, "aerial_won": 0.5729, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7004, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2585, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0011, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0011, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0011, "squad_weight_total": 1.0631, "weight_share": 0.001, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "appearance_weight": 0.602, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.2576, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2576, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1594, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Emersonn" ] } ] } } ] }, "Azor Matusiwa": { "player_id": 856495, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 173, "market_value": 12800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "goal_rate": 0.0319, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6453, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.7965, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2853, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "goal_rate": 0.0319, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0688, "total_shots": 0.252, "rating": 6.6453, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 11.461, "accurate_pass": 10.4956, "duels_won": 0.8313, "total_long_balls": 1.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1799, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8082, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6874, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6874, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9201, "possession_lost": 1.7965, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3755, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7847, "interceptions": 1.4478, "tackles_won": 0.4826, "tackles": 0.8313, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4102, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7969, "total_progression": 8.8023, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1832, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 0.9028, xG scale 1.5176, xA scale 1.5176, team xA 0.98 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2853, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "goal_rate": 0.0319, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0688, "total_shots": 0.252, "rating": 6.6453, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 11.461, "accurate_pass": 10.4956, "duels_won": 0.8313, "total_long_balls": 1.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1799, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8082, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6874, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6874, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9201, "possession_lost": 1.7965, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3755, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7847, "interceptions": 1.4478, "tackles_won": 0.4826, "tackles": 0.8313, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4102, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7969, "total_progression": 8.8023, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1832, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1887, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.37, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9028, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6471, "team_expected_assists": 0.982, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7168, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5176, "xa_scale": 1.5176, "opponent_lambda": 1.411, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.52 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2853, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "goal_rate": 0.0319, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0688, "total_shots": 0.252, "rating": 6.6453, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 11.461, "accurate_pass": 10.4956, "duels_won": 0.8313, "total_long_balls": 1.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1799, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8082, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6874, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6874, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9201, "possession_lost": 1.7965, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3755, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7847, "interceptions": 1.4478, "tackles_won": 0.4826, "tackles": 0.8313, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4102, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7969, "total_progression": 8.8023, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1832, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1887, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3215, "fifa_rank": 2200.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2853, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "goal_rate": 0.0319, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0688, "total_shots": 0.252, "rating": 6.6453, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 11.461, "accurate_pass": 10.4956, "duels_won": 0.8313, "total_long_balls": 1.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1799, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8082, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6874, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6874, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9201, "possession_lost": 1.7965, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3755, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7847, "interceptions": 1.4478, "tackles_won": 0.4826, "tackles": 0.8313, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4102, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7969, "total_progression": 8.8023, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1832, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0147, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1887, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0147, "goal_rate": 0.0319, "scorer_weight": 0.0177, "squad_weight_total": 1.4124, "weight_share": 0.0125, "finishing_factor": 1.1887, "appearance_weight": 0.52, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Emersonn", "weight": 0.4169, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4169, "runner_up": "Julio Enciso", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2665 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2853, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0149, "goal_rate": 0.0319, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0688, "total_shots": 0.252, "rating": 6.6453, "minutes": 22.44, "total_pass": 11.461, "accurate_pass": 10.4956, "duels_won": 0.8313, "total_long_balls": 1.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1799, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8082, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6874, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6874, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9201, "possession_lost": 1.7965, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3755, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7847, "interceptions": 1.4478, "tackles_won": 0.4826, "tackles": 0.8313, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4102, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7969, "total_progression": 8.8023, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1832, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.52, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.44, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.528, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0147, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0105, "finishing_factor": 1.1887, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0105, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "provider_weight": 0.0132, "squad_weight_total": 1.0631, "weight_share": 0.0125, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.52, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.2576, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2576, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1594, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Emersonn" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.37, "expected_assists": 0.98, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 512, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 6.88, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5 } }, "Bournemouth": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Đorđe Petrović": { "player_id": 882604, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 194, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0602, "rating": 6.9039, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 18, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 38, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.1376, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 10.8153, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2104, "shots_faced": 13.0, "expected_saves": 3.18, "high_pressure_saves": 1.1, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363902.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.4516 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363899.0, "match_date": 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"Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0059, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7329, "goals_prevented": -0.0602, "rating": 6.9039, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.79, "accurate_pass": 18.1664, "total_long_balls": 15.4916, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0395, "touches": 37.9517, "clearances": 1.0226, "ball_recovery": 8.0478, "high_claims": 1.2555, "punches": 1.1376, "aerial_won": 0.3351, "sweeper_actions": 0.3314, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3293, "saves_inside_box": 1.2728, "possession_lost": 10.8153, "duels_won": 0.363, "duels_lost": 0.0021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0064, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1484 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0059, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 47, "history_shrink": 0.0962, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0083)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7476, "goals_prevented": -0.0602, "rating": 6.9039, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.79, "accurate_pass": 18.1664, "total_long_balls": 15.4916, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0395, "touches": 37.9517, "clearances": 1.0226, "ball_recovery": 8.0478, "high_claims": 1.2555, "punches": 1.1376, "aerial_won": 0.3351, "sweeper_actions": 0.3314, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3293, "saves_inside_box": 1.2728, "possession_lost": 10.8153, "duels_won": 0.363, "duels_lost": 0.0021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1484 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0083, "history_matches": 47, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.7329, "after": 2.7476 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.7476, "goals_prevented": -0.0602, "rating": 6.9039, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.79, "accurate_pass": 18.1664, "total_long_balls": 15.4916, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0395, "touches": 37.9517, "clearances": 1.0226, "ball_recovery": 8.0478, "high_claims": 1.2555, "punches": 1.1376, "aerial_won": 0.3351, "sweeper_actions": 0.3314, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3293, "saves_inside_box": 1.2728, "possession_lost": 10.8153, "duels_won": 0.363, "duels_lost": 0.0021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1484 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7476, "goals_prevented": -0.0602, "rating": 6.9039, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.79, "accurate_pass": 18.1664, "total_long_balls": 15.4916, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0395, "touches": 37.9517, "clearances": 1.0226, "ball_recovery": 8.0478, "high_claims": 1.2555, "punches": 1.1376, "aerial_won": 0.3351, "sweeper_actions": 0.3314, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3293, "saves_inside_box": 1.2728, "possession_lost": 10.8153, "duels_won": 0.363, "duels_lost": 0.0021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1484, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2104, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.81, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.2104 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.7476, "goals_prevented": -0.0602, "rating": 6.9039, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.79, "accurate_pass": 18.1664, "total_long_balls": 15.4916, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0395, "touches": 37.9517, "clearances": 1.0226, "ball_recovery": 8.0478, "high_claims": 1.2555, "punches": 1.1376, "aerial_won": 0.3351, "sweeper_actions": 0.3314, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3293, "saves_inside_box": 1.2728, "possession_lost": 10.8153, "duels_won": 0.363, "duels_lost": 0.0021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1484, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2104, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.81, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.1126, xG scale 1.2682, xA scale 1.2682, team xA 1.12 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7476, "goals_prevented": -0.0602, "rating": 6.9039, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.79, "accurate_pass": 18.1664, "total_long_balls": 15.4916, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0395, "touches": 37.9517, "clearances": 1.0226, "ball_recovery": 8.0478, "high_claims": 1.2555, "punches": 1.1376, "aerial_won": 0.3351, "sweeper_actions": 0.3314, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3293, "saves_inside_box": 1.2728, "possession_lost": 10.8153, "duels_won": 0.363, "duels_lost": 0.0021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1484, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2104, "shots_faced": 13.0, "expected_saves": 3.18, "high_pressure_saves": 1.1, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.411, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1126, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8871, "team_expected_assists": 1.125, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7973, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2682, "xa_scale": 1.2682, "opponent_lambda": 1.37, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.5, "after": 13.0 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.81, "after": 3.18 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.97, "after": 1.1 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7476, "goals_prevented": -0.0602, "rating": 6.9039, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.79, "accurate_pass": 18.1664, "total_long_balls": 15.4916, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0395, "touches": 37.9517, "clearances": 1.0226, "ball_recovery": 8.0478, "high_claims": 1.2555, "punches": 1.1376, "aerial_won": 0.3351, "sweeper_actions": 0.3314, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3293, "saves_inside_box": 1.2728, "possession_lost": 10.8153, "duels_won": 0.363, "duels_lost": 0.0021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1484, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2104, "shots_faced": 13.0, "expected_saves": 3.18, "high_pressure_saves": 1.1, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1125, "fifa_rank": 889.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7476, "goals_prevented": -0.0602, "rating": 6.9039, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.79, "accurate_pass": 18.1664, "total_long_balls": 15.4916, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0395, "touches": 37.9517, "clearances": 1.0226, "ball_recovery": 8.0478, "high_claims": 1.2555, "punches": 1.1376, "aerial_won": 0.3351, "sweeper_actions": 0.3314, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3293, "saves_inside_box": 1.2728, "possession_lost": 10.8153, "duels_won": 0.363, "duels_lost": 0.0021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1484, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2104, "shots_faced": 13.0, "expected_saves": 3.18, "high_pressure_saves": 1.1, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4986, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.5152, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5152, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2077 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7476, "goals_prevented": -0.0602, "rating": 6.9039, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.79, "accurate_pass": 18.1664, "total_long_balls": 15.4916, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0395, "touches": 37.9517, "clearances": 1.0226, "ball_recovery": 8.0478, "high_claims": 1.2555, "punches": 1.1376, "aerial_won": 0.3351, "sweeper_actions": 0.3314, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3293, "saves_inside_box": 1.2728, "possession_lost": 10.8153, "duels_won": 0.363, "duels_lost": 0.0021, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1484, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2104, "shots_faced": 13.0, "expected_saves": 3.18, "high_pressure_saves": 1.1, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.1331, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1986, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1986, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1655, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Rayan" ] } ] } } ] }, "Adrien Truffert": { "player_id": 999028, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 176, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8663, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 15.4383, "dispossessed": 0.3199, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0158, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2079, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0392, "expected_assists": 0.1589, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0255, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.582, "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0384, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1469, "finishing_factor": 0.8133, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363902.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363899.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.3283, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363881.0, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "expected_assists": 0.105, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363873.0, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2925, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363648.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363640.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0799, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 48, 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"history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0625 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0004, "total": 0.6204, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062465 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.021545 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.020907 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.019974 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.014692 } ], "others_margin": -0.000471 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.866274356842041, "model_output": 6.8663, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": 0.0243, "total": 6.8663, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.036716 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015221 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.011186 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010687 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009233 } ], "others_margin": 0.024292 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 47, "role_matches": 47, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0067, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0759, "tackles": 2.1946, "tackles_won": 1.3299, "clearances": 2.7315, "aerial_won": 1.0364, "total_shots": 0.6246, "rating": 6.8663, "minutes": 89.44, "total_pass": 42.9072, "accurate_pass": 34.904, "duels_won": 4.7169, "total_long_balls": 3.5803, "accurate_long_balls": 1.05, "total_own_half_passes": 18.9257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.4733, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4307, "crosses_total": 3.6485, "crosses_accurate": 0.7376, "touches": 66.989, "possession_lost": 15.4383, "dispossessed": 0.3199, "duels_lost": 4.7128, "aerial_lost": 1.1215, "total_contest": 1.6441, "won_contest": 0.6259, "ball_recovery": 4.2777, "challenges_lost": 1.0751, "fouls": 1.3964, "fouls_drawn": 0.6397, "blocks": 0.1346, "goals": 0.0159, 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}, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0556 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0416 } ], "others": 0.1671, "total": 7.2484, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.071077 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.066377 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.055596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.047806 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.041609 } ], "others_margin": 0.167187 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0079, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2799, "tackles": 1.9172, "tackles_won": 1.0907, "clearances": 6.3121, "aerial_won": 3.6256, "total_shots": 0.6993, "rating": 7.2484, "minutes": 89.96, "total_pass": 56.2629, "accurate_pass": 42.8291, "duels_won": 7.1733, "total_long_balls": 12.6208, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7002, "total_own_half_passes": 30.4731, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8838, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9453, "crosses_total": 0.2456, "crosses_accurate": 0.0895, "touches": 74.1712, "possession_lost": 16.0794, "dispossessed": 0.0422, "duels_lost": 3.6764, "aerial_lost": 1.9565, "total_contest": 0.1619, "won_contest": 0.0149, "ball_recovery": 3.5544, "challenges_lost": 0.6895, "fouls": 0.8455, "fouls_drawn": 0.547, "blocks": 1.0609, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0124, "assist_rate": 0.0124, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0603, "shots_on_target": 0.0168, "big_chances_created": 0.1056, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 19.0833, "total_progression": 44.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.3517, "key_pass": 0.7528, "shots_off_target": 0.6824 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0079, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2821, "tackles": 1.9172, "tackles_won": 1.0898, "clearances": 6.3121, "aerial_won": 3.6256, "total_shots": 0.6923, "rating": 7.2484, "minutes": 89.96, "total_pass": 56.2629, "accurate_pass": 42.8291, "duels_won": 7.1733, "total_long_balls": 12.6208, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7002, "total_own_half_passes": 30.4731, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8838, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9453, "crosses_total": 0.2431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0895, "touches": 74.1712, "possession_lost": 16.0794, "dispossessed": 0.0422, "duels_lost": 3.6764, "aerial_lost": 1.9565, "total_contest": 0.1619, "won_contest": 0.0149, "ball_recovery": 3.5544, "challenges_lost": 0.6895, "fouls": 0.8521, "fouls_drawn": 0.5465, "blocks": 1.0609, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0123, "assist_rate": 0.0123, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0603, "shots_on_target": 0.0166, "big_chances_created": 0.1056, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 19.0833, "total_progression": 44.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.3517, "key_pass": 0.7528, "shots_off_target": 0.6824 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9996, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6993, "after": 0.6923 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8455, "after": 0.8521 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2821, "tackles": 1.9172, "tackles_won": 1.0898, "clearances": 6.3121, "aerial_won": 3.6256, "total_shots": 0.699, "rating": 7.2484, "minutes": 89.96, "total_pass": 56.2629, "accurate_pass": 42.8291, "duels_won": 7.1733, "total_long_balls": 12.6208, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7002, "total_own_half_passes": 30.4731, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8838, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9453, "crosses_total": 0.2431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0895, "touches": 74.1712, "possession_lost": 16.0794, "dispossessed": 0.0422, "duels_lost": 3.6764, "aerial_lost": 1.9565, "total_contest": 0.1619, "won_contest": 0.0149, "ball_recovery": 3.5544, "challenges_lost": 0.6895, "fouls": 0.8521, "fouls_drawn": 0.5465, "blocks": 1.0609, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0123, "assist_rate": 0.0123, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0603, "shots_on_target": 0.0166, "big_chances_created": 0.1056, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 19.0833, "total_progression": 44.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.3517, "key_pass": 0.7528, "shots_off_target": 0.6824 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2821, "tackles": 1.9172, "tackles_won": 1.0898, "clearances": 6.3121, "aerial_won": 3.6256, "total_shots": 0.699, "rating": 7.2484, "minutes": 89.96, "total_pass": 56.2629, "accurate_pass": 42.8291, "duels_won": 7.1733, "total_long_balls": 12.6208, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7002, "total_own_half_passes": 30.4731, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8838, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9453, "crosses_total": 0.2431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0895, "touches": 74.1712, "possession_lost": 16.0794, "dispossessed": 0.0422, "duels_lost": 3.6764, "aerial_lost": 1.9565, "total_contest": 0.1619, "won_contest": 0.0149, "ball_recovery": 3.5544, "challenges_lost": 0.6895, "fouls": 0.8521, "fouls_drawn": 0.5465, "blocks": 1.0609, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0123, "assist_rate": 0.0123, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0603, "shots_on_target": 0.0166, "big_chances_created": 0.1056, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 19.0833, "total_progression": 44.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.3517, "key_pass": 0.7528, "shots_off_target": 0.6824, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2821, "tackles": 1.9172, "tackles_won": 1.0898, "clearances": 6.3121, "aerial_won": 3.6256, "total_shots": 0.699, "rating": 7.2484, "minutes": 89.96, "total_pass": 56.2629, "accurate_pass": 42.8291, "duels_won": 7.1733, "total_long_balls": 12.6208, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7002, "total_own_half_passes": 30.4731, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8838, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9453, "crosses_total": 0.2431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0895, "touches": 74.1712, "possession_lost": 16.0794, "dispossessed": 0.0422, "duels_lost": 3.6764, "aerial_lost": 1.9565, "total_contest": 0.1619, "won_contest": 0.0149, "ball_recovery": 3.5544, "challenges_lost": 0.6895, "fouls": 0.8521, "fouls_drawn": 0.5465, "blocks": 1.0609, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0123, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0603, "shots_on_target": 0.0166, "big_chances_created": 0.1056, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 19.0833, "total_progression": 44.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.3517, "key_pass": 0.7528, "shots_off_target": 0.6824, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.1126, xG scale 1.2682, xA scale 1.2682, team xA 1.12 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2821, "tackles": 1.9172, "tackles_won": 1.0898, "clearances": 6.3121, "aerial_won": 3.6256, "total_shots": 0.699, "rating": 7.2484, "minutes": 89.96, "total_pass": 56.2629, "accurate_pass": 42.8291, "duels_won": 7.1733, "total_long_balls": 12.6208, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7002, "total_own_half_passes": 30.4731, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8838, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9453, "crosses_total": 0.2431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0895, "touches": 74.1712, "possession_lost": 16.0794, "dispossessed": 0.0422, "duels_lost": 3.6764, "aerial_lost": 1.9565, "total_contest": 0.1619, 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"params": { "team_lambda": 1.411, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1126, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8871, "team_expected_assists": 1.125, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7973, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2682, "xa_scale": 1.2682, "opponent_lambda": 1.37, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0603, "after": 0.0765 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2821, "tackles": 1.9172, "tackles_won": 1.0898, "clearances": 6.3121, "aerial_won": 3.6256, "total_shots": 0.699, "rating": 7.2484, "minutes": 89.96, "total_pass": 56.2629, "accurate_pass": 42.8291, "duels_won": 7.1733, "total_long_balls": 12.6208, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7002, "total_own_half_passes": 30.4731, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8838, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9453, "crosses_total": 0.2431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0895, "touches": 74.1712, "possession_lost": 16.0794, "dispossessed": 0.0422, "duels_lost": 3.6764, "aerial_lost": 1.9565, "total_contest": 0.1619, "won_contest": 0.0149, "ball_recovery": 3.5544, "challenges_lost": 0.6895, "fouls": 0.8521, "fouls_drawn": 0.5465, "blocks": 1.0609, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0123, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "expected_assists": 0.0765, 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"fifa_rank": 1109.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2821, "tackles": 1.9172, "tackles_won": 1.0898, "clearances": 6.3121, "aerial_won": 3.6256, "total_shots": 0.699, "rating": 7.2484, "minutes": 89.96, "total_pass": 56.2629, "accurate_pass": 42.8291, "duels_won": 7.1733, "total_long_balls": 12.6208, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7002, "total_own_half_passes": 30.4731, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8838, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9453, "crosses_total": 0.2431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0895, "touches": 74.1712, "possession_lost": 16.0794, "dispossessed": 0.0422, "duels_lost": 3.6764, "aerial_lost": 1.9565, "total_contest": 0.1619, "won_contest": 0.0149, "ball_recovery": 3.5544, "challenges_lost": 0.6895, "fouls": 0.8521, "fouls_drawn": 0.5465, "blocks": 1.0609, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0123, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "expected_assists": 0.0765, "shots_on_target": 0.0166, "big_chances_created": 0.1056, "xgot": 0.001, "ball_carries": 19.0833, "total_progression": 44.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.3517, "key_pass": 0.7528, "shots_off_target": 0.6824, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0201, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0201, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0162, "squad_weight_total": 1.4986, "weight_share": 0.0108, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.5152, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5152, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2077 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2821, "tackles": 1.9172, "tackles_won": 1.0898, "clearances": 6.3121, "aerial_won": 3.6256, "total_shots": 0.699, "rating": 7.2484, "minutes": 89.96, "total_pass": 56.2629, "accurate_pass": 42.8291, "duels_won": 7.1733, "total_long_balls": 12.6208, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7002, "total_own_half_passes": 30.4731, 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"margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.105959 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048191 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02364 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.013543 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012195 } ], "others_margin": -0.05567 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.691510200500488, "model_output": 6.6915, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0501, "total": 6.6915, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019317 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016566 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014081 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013908 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.006689 } ], "others_margin": -0.05009 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.0604, "expected_assists": 0.0487, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0043, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.1473, "total_progression": 12.1644, "progressive_carries": 0.4154, "key_pass": 0.6242, "shots_off_target": 0.3418 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8805, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.6943, "clearances": 2.7, "aerial_won": 0.9157, "total_shots": 0.3418, "rating": 6.6915, "minutes": 84.52, "total_pass": 28.3901, "accurate_pass": 22.3566, "duels_won": 3.3812, "total_long_balls": 3.6889, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0888, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8097, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.547, "crosses_total": 1.1152, "crosses_accurate": 0.4608, "touches": 46.7927, "possession_lost": 9.8188, "dispossessed": 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"fouls_drawn": 1.4505, "blocks": 0.301, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0366, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "expected_assists": 0.0487, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0043, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.1473, "total_progression": 12.1644, "progressive_carries": 0.4154, "key_pass": 0.6242, "shots_off_target": 0.3418, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.473, "opponent_faced": "Saša Lukić", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.1126, xG scale 1.2682, xA scale 1.2682, team xA 1.12 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8805, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.6943, "clearances": 2.7, "aerial_won": 0.9157, "total_shots": 0.3418, "rating": 6.6915, "minutes": 84.52, "total_pass": 28.3901, "accurate_pass": 22.3566, "duels_won": 3.3812, "total_long_balls": 3.6889, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0888, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8097, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5024, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.547, "crosses_total": 1.1152, "crosses_accurate": 0.4608, "touches": 46.7927, "possession_lost": 9.8188, "dispossessed": 0.1363, "duels_lost": 3.8077, "aerial_lost": 0.723, "total_contest": 0.5251, "won_contest": 0.243, "ball_recovery": 2.326, "challenges_lost": 1.5157, "fouls": 1.2495, "fouls_drawn": 1.4505, "blocks": 0.301, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0366, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0766, "expected_assists": 0.0618, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0043, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.1473, "total_progression": 12.1644, "progressive_carries": 0.4154, "key_pass": 0.6242, "shots_off_target": 0.3418, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.473, "opponent_faced": "Saša Lukić", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8774 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.411, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1126, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8871, "team_expected_assists": 1.125, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7973, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2682, "xa_scale": 1.2682, "opponent_lambda": 1.37, 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"antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.1126, xG scale 1.2682, xA scale 1.2682, team xA 1.12 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2552, "tackles": 1.2936, "tackles_won": 0.7958, "clearances": 6.0197, "aerial_won": 3.421, "total_shots": 0.7318, "rating": 6.9951, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 62.157, "accurate_pass": 53.8974, "duels_won": 5.3043, "total_long_balls": 6.6083, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5355, "total_own_half_passes": 36.3653, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.2536, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6438, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.633, "possession_lost": 8.9325, 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"contribution": -0.0575 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0422 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0172 } ], "others": 0.0078, "total": 0.3394, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.189947 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.162131 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121314 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.056653 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050491 } ], "others_margin": 0.023444 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1531816720962524, "model_output": 1.1532, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2716 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1388 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0726 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0267 } ], "others": -0.1059, "total": 1.1532, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.271627 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138838 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.07255 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.03692 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.026744 } ], "others_margin": -0.106004 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.196825981140137, "model_output": 7.1968, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0119, quality 0.877)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6464, "expected_assists": 0.1513, "assists": 0.0993, "assist_rate": 0.0993, "expected_goals": 0.0873, "goals": 0.1079, "goal_rate": 0.1079, "shots_on_target": 0.3434, "total_shots": 1.1669, "rating": 7.1968, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 49.5126, "accurate_pass": 41.5832, "duels_won": 6.1483, "total_long_balls": 5.9828, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6225, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9835, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5997, "crosses_total": 3.199, "crosses_accurate": 0.5484, "touches": 69.6522, "possession_lost": 13.7869, "dispossessed": 0.9294, "duels_lost": 4.7546, "aerial_won": 0.8709, "aerial_lost": 1.1415, "interceptions": 1.2464, "tackles_won": 1.0163, "tackles": 1.7221, "clearances": 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"name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2742 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1153 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0582 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0383 } ], "others": -0.186, "total": 0.5031, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.274154 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115277 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058182 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.04035 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.038264 } ], "others_margin": -0.186183 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.90458345413208, "model_output": 6.9046, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { 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normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0085, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4639, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assists": 0.0482, "assist_rate": 0.0482, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "shots_on_target": 0.1261, "total_shots": 0.5074, "rating": 6.9046, "minutes": 84.43, "total_pass": 49.979, "accurate_pass": 43.9007, "duels_won": 3.2204, "total_long_balls": 4.4254, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8358, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.0495, "crosses_total": 0.2393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0354, "touches": 62.714, "possession_lost": 8.054, "dispossessed": 0.2812, "duels_lost": 4.1347, "aerial_won": 1.0965, "aerial_lost": 0.3869, "interceptions": 1.3629, "tackles_won": 0.5626, "tackles": 1.6213, "clearances": 1.8799, "total_contest": 0.6025, "won_contest": 0.0532, "challenges_lost": 0.9606, "fouls": 1.9787, "fouls_drawn": 0.4594, "blocks": 0.2932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0161, "ball_carries": 15.3028, "total_progression": 33.8805, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "shots_off_target": 0.3812 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0085, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4639, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assists": 0.0481, "assist_rate": 0.0481, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goals": 0.0522, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "shots_on_target": 0.1258, "total_shots": 0.5063, "rating": 6.9046, "minutes": 84.43, "total_pass": 49.979, "accurate_pass": 43.9007, "duels_won": 3.2204, "total_long_balls": 4.4254, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8358, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.0495, "crosses_total": 0.2388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0354, "touches": 62.714, "possession_lost": 8.054, "dispossessed": 0.2812, "duels_lost": 4.1347, "aerial_won": 1.0965, "aerial_lost": 0.3869, "interceptions": 1.3703, "tackles_won": 0.5613, "tackles": 1.6213, "clearances": 1.8799, "total_contest": 0.6025, "won_contest": 0.0532, "challenges_lost": 0.9606, "fouls": 1.9743, "fouls_drawn": 0.4584, "blocks": 0.2932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0161, "ball_carries": 15.3028, "total_progression": 33.8805, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "shots_off_target": 0.3812 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9381, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.3629, "after": 1.3703 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4639, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assists": 0.0481, "assist_rate": 0.0481, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goals": 0.0522, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "shots_on_target": 0.1258, "total_shots": 0.507, "rating": 6.9046, "minutes": 84.43, "total_pass": 49.979, "accurate_pass": 43.9007, "duels_won": 3.2204, "total_long_balls": 4.4254, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8358, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.0495, "crosses_total": 0.2388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0354, "touches": 62.714, "possession_lost": 8.054, "dispossessed": 0.2812, "duels_lost": 4.1347, "aerial_won": 1.0965, "aerial_lost": 0.3869, "interceptions": 1.3703, "tackles_won": 0.5613, "tackles": 1.6213, "clearances": 1.8799, "total_contest": 0.6025, "won_contest": 0.0532, "challenges_lost": 0.9606, "fouls": 1.9743, "fouls_drawn": 0.4584, "blocks": 0.2932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0161, "ball_carries": 15.3028, "total_progression": 33.8805, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "shots_off_target": 0.3812 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4639, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assists": 0.0481, "assist_rate": 0.0481, "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goals": 0.0545, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "shots_on_target": 0.1314, "total_shots": 0.5297, "rating": 6.9046, "minutes": 84.43, "total_pass": 49.979, "accurate_pass": 43.9007, "duels_won": 3.2204, "total_long_balls": 4.4254, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8358, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.0495, "crosses_total": 0.2388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0354, "touches": 62.714, "possession_lost": 8.054, "dispossessed": 0.2812, "duels_lost": 4.1347, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3869, "interceptions": 1.3703, "tackles_won": 0.5613, "tackles": 1.6213, "clearances": 1.8799, "total_contest": 0.6025, "won_contest": 0.0532, "challenges_lost": 0.9606, "fouls": 1.9743, "fouls_drawn": 0.4584, "blocks": 0.2932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 15.3028, "total_progression": 33.8805, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0447, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Florentino Luís", "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0447, "skill_edge": 0.0664, "height_edge": -0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.761, "defender_skill": 0.6134, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Florentino Luís", "market_value": 15500000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.6134 } ], "xg_override": 0.0438 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.0965, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.507, "after": 0.5297 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3812, "after": 0.3982 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1258, "after": 0.1314 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4639, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assist_rate": 0.0481, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1314, "total_shots": 0.5297, "rating": 6.9046, "minutes": 84.43, "total_pass": 49.979, "accurate_pass": 43.9007, "duels_won": 3.2204, "total_long_balls": 4.4254, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8358, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.0495, "crosses_total": 0.2388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0354, "touches": 62.714, "possession_lost": 8.054, "dispossessed": 0.2812, "duels_lost": 4.1347, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3869, "interceptions": 1.3703, "tackles_won": 0.5613, "tackles": 1.6213, "clearances": 1.8799, "total_contest": 0.6025, "won_contest": 0.0532, "challenges_lost": 0.9606, "fouls": 1.9743, "fouls_drawn": 0.4584, "blocks": 0.2932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 15.3028, "total_progression": 33.8805, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0447, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Florentino Luís", "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.1126, xG scale 1.2682, xA scale 1.2682, team xA 1.12 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4639, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0481, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1314, "total_shots": 0.5297, "rating": 6.9046, "minutes": 84.43, "total_pass": 49.979, "accurate_pass": 43.9007, "duels_won": 3.2204, "total_long_balls": 4.4254, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8358, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.0495, "crosses_total": 0.2388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0354, "touches": 62.714, "possession_lost": 8.054, "dispossessed": 0.2812, "duels_lost": 4.1347, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3869, "interceptions": 1.3703, "tackles_won": 0.5613, "tackles": 1.6213, "clearances": 1.8799, "total_contest": 0.6025, "won_contest": 0.0532, "challenges_lost": 0.9606, "fouls": 1.9743, "fouls_drawn": 0.4584, "blocks": 0.2932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 15.3028, "total_progression": 33.8805, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0447, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Florentino Luís", "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1141, "creation_factor": 1.1749 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.411, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1126, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8871, "team_expected_assists": 1.125, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7973, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2682, "xa_scale": 1.2682, "opponent_lambda": 1.37, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0438, "after": 0.0555 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0335, "after": 0.0425 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4639, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0481, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1314, "total_shots": 0.5297, "rating": 6.9046, "minutes": 84.43, "total_pass": 49.979, "accurate_pass": 43.9007, "duels_won": 3.2204, "total_long_balls": 4.4254, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8358, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.0495, "crosses_total": 0.2388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0354, "touches": 62.714, "possession_lost": 8.054, "dispossessed": 0.2812, "duels_lost": 4.1347, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3869, "interceptions": 1.3703, "tackles_won": 0.5613, "tackles": 1.6213, "clearances": 1.8799, "total_contest": 0.6025, "won_contest": 0.0532, "challenges_lost": 0.9606, "fouls": 1.9743, "fouls_drawn": 0.4584, "blocks": 0.2932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 15.3028, "total_progression": 33.8805, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0447, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Florentino Luís", "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1141, "creation_factor": 1.1749, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1707, "fifa_rank": 864.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4639, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0481, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1314, "total_shots": 0.5297, "rating": 6.9046, "minutes": 84.43, "total_pass": 49.979, "accurate_pass": 43.9007, "duels_won": 3.2204, "total_long_balls": 4.4254, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8358, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.0495, "crosses_total": 0.2388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0354, "touches": 62.714, "possession_lost": 8.054, "dispossessed": 0.2812, "duels_lost": 4.1347, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3869, "interceptions": 1.3703, "tackles_won": 0.5613, "tackles": 1.6213, "clearances": 1.8799, "total_contest": 0.6025, "won_contest": 0.0532, "challenges_lost": 0.9606, "fouls": 1.9743, "fouls_drawn": 0.4584, "blocks": 0.2932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 15.3028, "total_progression": 33.8805, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0447, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Florentino Luís", "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.054, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1141, "creation_factor": 1.1749, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.054, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "scorer_weight": 0.0618, "squad_weight_total": 1.4986, "weight_share": 0.0413, "finishing_factor": 1.1141, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.5152, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5152, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2077 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4639, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0481, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1314, "total_shots": 0.5297, "rating": 6.9046, "minutes": 84.43, "total_pass": 49.979, "accurate_pass": 43.9007, "duels_won": 3.2204, "total_long_balls": 4.4254, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8358, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.0495, "crosses_total": 0.2388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0354, "touches": 62.714, "possession_lost": 8.054, "dispossessed": 0.2812, "duels_lost": 4.1347, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3869, "interceptions": 1.3703, "tackles_won": 0.5613, "tackles": 1.6213, "clearances": 1.8799, "total_contest": 0.6025, "won_contest": 0.0532, "challenges_lost": 0.9606, "fouls": 1.9743, "fouls_drawn": 0.4584, "blocks": 0.2932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 15.3028, "total_progression": 33.8805, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0447, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Florentino Luís", "opponent_faced": "Florentino 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"expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0522 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0436 } ], "others": 0.0817, "total": 1.7048, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.325937 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.167541 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.052223 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049021 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.043565 } ], "others_margin": 0.081607 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.772821426391602, "model_output": 6.7728, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0392 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0147, "total": 6.7728, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.039247 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038189 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027719 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010599 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009623 } ], "others_margin": -0.014645 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.1801, "total_contest": 1.4933, "won_contest": 0.5769, "challenges_lost": 0.5088, "fouls": 1.7088, "fouls_drawn": 0.6687, "blocks": 0.0232, "big_chances_created": 0.5335, "big_chances_missed": 0.0927, "xgot": 0.2487, "ball_carries": 8.3234, "total_progression": 37.3282, "progressive_carries": 1.1916, "shots_off_target": 1.1476 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0077, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0115)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2201, "expected_assists": 0.1067, "assists": 0.1417, "assist_rate": 0.1417, "expected_goals": 0.1849, "goals": 0.1866, "goal_rate": 0.1866, "shots_on_target": 0.5802, "total_shots": 1.7256, "rating": 6.7728, "minutes": 73.3, "total_pass": 20.7279, "accurate_pass": 16.9497, "duels_won": 2.2843, "total_long_balls": 0.938, "accurate_long_balls": 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20.7279, "accurate_pass": 16.9497, "duels_won": 2.2843, "total_long_balls": 0.938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8153, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1797, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9129, "crosses_total": 2.2362, "crosses_accurate": 0.7833, "touches": 33.8779, "possession_lost": 10.1914, "dispossessed": 1.4899, "duels_lost": 5.5547, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.931, "interceptions": 0.7646, "tackles_won": 0.4156, "tackles": 0.5707, "clearances": 0.1801, "total_contest": 1.4933, "won_contest": 0.5769, "challenges_lost": 0.5088, "fouls": 1.7002, "fouls_drawn": 0.672, "blocks": 0.0232, "big_chances_created": 0.5335, "big_chances_missed": 0.0815, "xgot": 0.2187, "ball_carries": 8.3234, "total_progression": 37.3282, "progressive_carries": 1.1916, "shots_off_target": 1.0092, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8794, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.398, 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1.1476, "after": 1.0092 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5802, "after": 0.5102 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2487, "after": 0.2187 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1866, "after": 0.1641 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1849, "after": 0.1626 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0927, "after": 0.0815 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2201, "expected_assists": 0.1067, "assist_rate": 0.1417, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1626, "goal_rate": 0.1641, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5102, "total_shots": 1.5194, "rating": 6.7728, "minutes": 73.3, "total_pass": 20.7279, "accurate_pass": 16.9497, "duels_won": 2.2843, "total_long_balls": 0.938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8153, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1797, 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10.9129, "crosses_total": 2.2362, "crosses_accurate": 0.7833, "touches": 33.8779, "possession_lost": 10.1914, "dispossessed": 1.4899, "duels_lost": 5.5547, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.931, "interceptions": 0.7646, "tackles_won": 0.4156, "tackles": 0.5707, "clearances": 0.1801, "total_contest": 1.4933, "won_contest": 0.5769, "challenges_lost": 0.5088, "fouls": 1.7002, "fouls_drawn": 0.672, "blocks": 0.0232, "big_chances_created": 0.5335, "big_chances_missed": 0.0815, "xgot": 0.2773, "ball_carries": 8.3234, "total_progression": 37.3282, "progressive_carries": 1.1916, "shots_off_target": 1.0092, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8794, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dara O'Shea", "opponent_faced": "Dara O'Shea", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", 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"total": 1.1548, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.151173 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138067 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.051707 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041273 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.035618 } ], "others_margin": -0.061967 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.908241271972656, "model_output": 6.9082, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8706, "expected_assists": 0.0852, "assists": 0.078, "assist_rate": 0.078, "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goals": 0.0796, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.3259, "total_shots": 1.1548, "rating": 6.9082, "minutes": 72.77, "total_pass": 32.9183, "accurate_pass": 26.0228, "duels_won": 4.6391, "total_long_balls": 4.4686, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6363, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5472, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.2399, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7828, "crosses_total": 0.5457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.3263, "possession_lost": 11.2222, "dispossessed": 1.0217, "duels_lost": 4.2433, "aerial_won": 1.0612, "aerial_lost": 0.8412, "interceptions": 1.0297, "tackles_won": 1.0396, "tackles": 1.2142, "clearances": 1.0749, "total_contest": 1.4123, "won_contest": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.6567, "fouls": 1.1631, "fouls_drawn": 1.6425, "blocks": 0.1586, "big_chances_created": 0.3327, "big_chances_missed": 0.1805, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 12.2493, "total_progression": 40.2262, "progressive_carries": 1.3792, "shots_off_target": 0.8289 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8706, "expected_assists": 0.0852, "assists": 0.078, "assist_rate": 0.078, "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goals": 0.0796, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.3259, "total_shots": 1.1548, "rating": 6.9082, "minutes": 72.77, "total_pass": 32.9183, "accurate_pass": 26.0228, "duels_won": 4.6391, "total_long_balls": 4.4686, 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"expected_assists": 0.0852, "assists": 0.078, "assist_rate": 0.078, "expected_goals": 0.0728, "goals": 0.0641, "goal_rate": 0.0641, "shots_on_target": 0.2624, "total_shots": 0.9297, "rating": 6.9082, "minutes": 72.77, "total_pass": 32.9183, "accurate_pass": 26.0228, "duels_won": 4.6391, "total_long_balls": 4.4686, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6363, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5472, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.2399, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7828, "crosses_total": 0.5457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.3263, "possession_lost": 11.2222, "dispossessed": 1.0217, "duels_lost": 4.2433, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8412, "interceptions": 1.0297, "tackles_won": 1.0396, "tackles": 1.2142, "clearances": 1.0749, "total_contest": 1.4123, "won_contest": 0.797, "challenges_lost": 0.6567, "fouls": 1.1631, "fouls_drawn": 1.6425, "blocks": 0.1586, "big_chances_created": 0.3327, "big_chances_missed": 0.1453, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 12.2493, 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"model_output": 0.1313, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1083 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0185 } ], "others": -0.0223, "total": 0.1313, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.41657 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.196729 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.131903 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131612 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 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"margin": -0.05921 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056686 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.044918 } ], "others_margin": -0.010462 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.813369274139404, "model_output": 6.8134, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0392 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.033 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0283, "total": 6.8134, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.039162 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032966 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.010042 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.00869 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008239 } ], "others_margin": -0.02825 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0017, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8464, "expected_assists": 0.0674, "assists": 0.077, "assist_rate": 0.077, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goals": 0.06, "goal_rate": 0.06, "shots_on_target": 0.1315, "total_shots": 0.6043, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 79.96, "total_pass": 38.0762, "accurate_pass": 32.1886, "duels_won": 3.3395, "total_long_balls": 4.1655, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0499, "total_own_half_passes": 17.1214, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5947, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.594, "crosses_total": 2.6407, "crosses_accurate": 0.8979, "touches": 49.949, "possession_lost": 9.2632, "dispossessed": 0.6028, "duels_lost": 2.507, "aerial_won": 0.8463, "aerial_lost": 0.5846, "interceptions": 1.5193, "tackles_won": 0.9905, "tackles": 1.6331, "clearances": 1.116, 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"decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0688 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0587 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0388 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0316 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0193 } ], "others": 0.1023, "total": 7.0928, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.068774 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058696 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.038827 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.03155 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.019294 } ], "others_margin": 0.102305 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; 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10.9542, "dispossessed": 0.835, "duels_lost": 7.5071, "aerial_lost": 3.9696, "total_contest": 1.4304, "won_contest": 0.5882, "ball_recovery": 2.6461, "challenges_lost": 0.7504, "fouls": 1.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.1546, "assists": 0.0187, "assist_rate": 0.0187, "interceptions": 1.1415, "tackles_won": 0.7024, "tackles": 1.1442, "clearances": 1.6819, "blocks": 0.1335, "big_chances_created": 0.1147, "big_chances_missed": 0.7808, "xgot": 0.2802, "offsides": 0.0221, "ball_carries": 10.4851, "total_progression": 73.4784, "progressive_carries": 3.7389, "shots_off_target": 1.4158 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3331, "goals": 0.4172, "goal_rate": 0.4172, "shots_on_target": 0.9147, "total_shots": 2.4864, "expected_assists": 0.087, "key_pass": 0.965, "rating": 7.0928, "minutes": 86.25, "total_pass": 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0.275, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Issa Diop, Jacob Greaves", "opponent_faced": "Issa Diop, Jacob Greaves", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Issa Diop, Jacob Greaves", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1097, "skill_edge": 0.1086, "height_edge": -0.034, "attacker_skill": 0.8478, "defender_skill": 0.6065, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Issa Diop", "market_value": 10300000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5652 }, { "player": "Jacob Greaves", "market_value": 16300000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6478 } ], "xg_override": 0.3331 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2406, "after": 2.4864 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4158, "after": 1.5711 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8243, "after": 0.9147 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.7808, "after": 0.8665 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.376, "after": 0.4172 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3002, "after": 0.3331 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2802, "after": 0.3109 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3331, "goal_rate": 0.4172, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9147, "total_shots": 2.4864, "expected_assists": 0.087, "key_pass": 0.965, "rating": 7.0928, "minutes": 86.25, "total_pass": 22.6834, "accurate_pass": 16.6106, "duels_won": 5.5955, "total_long_balls": 1.1832, 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11.6326, "crosses_total": 1.5276, "crosses_accurate": 0.4339, "touches": 39.8112, "possession_lost": 10.9542, "dispossessed": 0.835, "duels_lost": 7.5071, "aerial_lost": 3.9696, "total_contest": 1.4304, "won_contest": 0.5882, "ball_recovery": 2.6461, "challenges_lost": 0.7504, "fouls": 1.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.1546, "assist_rate": 0.0187, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.1415, "tackles_won": 0.7024, "tackles": 1.1442, "clearances": 1.6819, "blocks": 0.1335, "big_chances_created": 0.1147, "big_chances_missed": 0.8665, "xgot": 0.3943, "offsides": 0.0221, "ball_carries": 10.4851, "total_progression": 73.4784, "progressive_carries": 3.7389, "shots_off_target": 1.5711, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1097, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Issa Diop, Jacob 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"margin": -0.933359 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.286334 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.099117 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.061675 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.043532 } ], "others_margin": 0.008487 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16094538569450378, "model_output": 0.1609, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1692 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0878 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0168, "total": 0.1609, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.169171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.087767 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018781 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014008 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.013689 } ], "others_margin": -0.016888 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.609376907348633, "model_output": 6.6094, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0503 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0073, quality 0.631)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3177, "tackles": 0.4915, "tackles_won": 0.2617, "clearances": 0.9873, "aerial_won": 0.4456, "total_shots": 0.1621, "rating": 6.6094, "minutes": 10.64, "total_pass": 2.9719, "accurate_pass": 2.3685, "duels_won": 0.3328, "total_long_balls": 0.2532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1266, "total_own_half_passes": 1.794, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6674, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.1779, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7011, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7021, "possession_lost": 0.9363, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.1753, "aerial_lost": 0.1753, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5258, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0050, quality 0.558)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.27, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0.0424, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "expected_goals": 0.0214, "goals": 0.0327, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "total_shots": 0.3466, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 10.48, "total_pass": 3.8517, "accurate_pass": 3.5291, "duels_won": 0.3665, "total_long_balls": 0.1667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2134, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6382, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3156, "crosses_total": 0.074, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.079, "possession_lost": 0.9205, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0979, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.1499, "tackles_won": 0.1667, "tackles": 0.2296, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.4075, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.074, "fouls_drawn": 0.1369, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2605, "total_progression": 6.7044, "progressive_carries": 0.1667, "shots_off_target": 0.2538 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13100000, "quality_factor": 0.5581, "boost_factor": 1.005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 11, "history_shrink": 0.3125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0027)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.27, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0.0423, "assist_rate": 0.0423, "expected_goals": 0.0214, "goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "shots_on_target": 0.0925, "total_shots": 0.3457, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 10.48, "total_pass": 3.8517, "accurate_pass": 3.5291, "duels_won": 0.3665, "total_long_balls": 0.1667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2134, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6382, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3156, "crosses_total": 0.0738, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.079, "possession_lost": 0.9205, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0979, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.1495, "tackles_won": 0.1678, "tackles": 0.2296, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.4075, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.0738, "fouls_drawn": 0.1365, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2605, "total_progression": 6.7044, "progressive_carries": 0.1667, "shots_off_target": 0.2538 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0027, "history_matches": 11, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1164, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 10.5 to 18.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "assists": 0.0634, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0489, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.9, "projection_minutes": 10.48, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.702 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "assists": 0.0634, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0489, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.1126, xG scale 1.2682, xA scale 1.2682, team xA 1.12 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2046, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.411, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1126, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8871, "team_expected_assists": 1.125, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7973, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2682, "xa_scale": 1.2682, "opponent_lambda": 1.37, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.702 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2046, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4102, "fifa_rank": 3255.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.028, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2046, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "scorer_weight": 0.0345, "squad_weight_total": 1.4986, "weight_share": 0.023, "finishing_factor": 1.2046, "appearance_weight": 0.702, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.5152, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5152, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2077 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.028, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0275, "finishing_factor": 1.2046, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0275, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "provider_weight": 0.0351, "squad_weight_total": 1.1331, "weight_share": 0.031, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.702, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1986, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1986, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1655, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Rayan" ] } ] } } ] }, "Juanlu Sánchez": { "player_id": 1010655, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 186, "market_value": 9700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, 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0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0826 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0057, "total": 6.7082, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.082566 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030218 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017454 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006655 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006463 } ], "others_margin": -0.005831 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0005, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.43, "expected_assists": 0.0461, "assists": 0.0507, "assist_rate": 0.0507, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.034, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.364, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 23.56, "total_pass": 11.1942, "accurate_pass": 8.9087, "duels_won": 2.4973, "total_long_balls": 1.4267, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6451, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7669, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0231, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4273, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8855, "crosses_total": 0.912, "crosses_accurate": 0.5415, "touches": 18.8999, "possession_lost": 4.4144, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.3156, "aerial_won": 0.1485, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7789, "tackles": 1.2475, "clearances": 0.5514, "total_contest": 0.6499, "won_contest": 0.4366, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2564, "fouls_drawn": 0.6648, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3631, "total_progression": 35.7723, "progressive_carries": 1.3535, "shots_off_target": 0.2383 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9700000, "quality_factor": 0.5189, "boost_factor": 1.0005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.6 to 22.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.048, "assist_rate": 0.048, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, "total_contest": 0.615, "won_contest": 0.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1288, "total_progression": 33.8515, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2255, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.29, "projection_minutes": 23.56, "minutes_scale": 0.9463, "appearance_probability": 0.513 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.048, "assist_rate": 0.048, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, "total_contest": 0.615, "won_contest": 0.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1288, "total_progression": 33.8515, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2255, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, "total_contest": 0.615, "won_contest": 0.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1288, "total_progression": 33.8515, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2255, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.1126, xG scale 1.2682, xA scale 1.2682, team xA 1.12 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, "total_contest": 0.615, "won_contest": 0.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1288, "total_progression": 33.8515, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2255, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1417, "creation_factor": 1.047 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.411, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1126, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8871, "team_expected_assists": 1.125, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7973, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2682, "xa_scale": 1.2682, "opponent_lambda": 1.37, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.513 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.022, "after": 0.0143 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0436, "after": 0.0284 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, "total_contest": 0.615, "won_contest": 0.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1288, "total_progression": 33.8515, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2255, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1417, "creation_factor": 1.047, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3394, "fifa_rank": 1983.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, 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"weight_share": 0.0109, "finishing_factor": 1.1417, "appearance_weight": 0.513, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.5152, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5152, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2077 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, "total_contest": 0.615, "won_contest": 0.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1288, "total_progression": 33.8515, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2255, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0141, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0276, "finishing_factor": 1.1417, "creation_factor": 1.047, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0276, "assist_rate": 0.048, "provider_weight": 0.0297, "squad_weight_total": 1.1331, "weight_share": 0.0262, "creation_factor": 1.047, "appearance_weight": 0.513, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1986, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1986, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1655, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Rayan" ] } ] } } ] }, "Eli Junior Kroupi": { "player_id": 1426228, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 179, "market_value": 72000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1295, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0547, 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"touches_p90", "margin": 0.048289 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.04772 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.041046 } ], "others_margin": 0.064387 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.667059421539307, "model_output": 6.6671, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0662 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0229, "total": 6.6671, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066203 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.01192 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011396 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009109 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.008538 } ], "others_margin": -0.022949 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0138, quality 0.873)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1069, "goals": 0.1178, "goal_rate": 0.1178, "shots_on_target": 0.3343, "total_shots": 1.0295, "expected_assists": 0.0451, "key_pass": 0.4795, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 17.55, "total_pass": 6.255, "accurate_pass": 4.6328, "duels_won": 1.0461, "total_long_balls": 0.1524, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.376, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1623, "crosses_total": 0.6152, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2418, "possession_lost": 3.8499, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 1.6677, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 0.9942, "won_contest": 0.6116, "ball_recovery": 1.1579, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 0.6773, "fouls_drawn": 0.1225, "assists": 0.1695, "assist_rate": 0.1695, "interceptions": 0.312, "tackles_won": 0.2482, "tackles": 0.2482, "clearances": 1.0511, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1695, "big_chances_missed": 0.1124, "xgot": 0.1863, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4356, "total_progression": 6.7449, "progressive_carries": 0.7166, "shots_off_target": 0.6952 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 72000000, "quality_factor": 0.8734, "boost_factor": 1.0138, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.6 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1603, "goals": 0.1767, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assists": 0.2543, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2794, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.02, "projection_minutes": 17.55, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.637 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1603, "goals": 0.1767, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assists": 0.2543, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2794, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1603, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2794, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.1126, xG scale 1.2682, xA scale 1.2682, team xA 1.12 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1295, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0547, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2257, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.078, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.411, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1126, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8871, "team_expected_assists": 1.125, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7973, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2682, "xa_scale": 1.2682, "opponent_lambda": 1.37, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1603, "after": 0.1295 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0677, "after": 0.0547 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1295, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0547, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2257, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.078, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1554, "fifa_rank": 703.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1295, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0547, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2257, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1172, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.078, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1172, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "scorer_weight": 0.1396, "squad_weight_total": 1.4986, "weight_share": 0.0932, "finishing_factor": 1.078, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.5152, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5152, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2077 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1295, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0547, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2257, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1172, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0524, "finishing_factor": 1.078, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0050, quality 0.558)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.27, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0.0424, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "expected_goals": 0.0214, "goals": 0.0327, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "total_shots": 0.3466, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 10.48, "total_pass": 3.8517, "accurate_pass": 3.5291, "duels_won": 0.3665, "total_long_balls": 0.1667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2134, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6382, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3156, "crosses_total": 0.074, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.079, "possession_lost": 0.9205, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0979, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.1499, "tackles_won": 0.1667, "tackles": 0.2296, "clearances": 0.2288, 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1.2134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2134, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6382, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3156, "crosses_total": 0.0738, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.079, "possession_lost": 0.9205, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0979, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.1495, "tackles_won": 0.1678, "tackles": 0.2296, "clearances": 0.2288, "total_contest": 0.4075, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.0738, "fouls_drawn": 0.1365, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2605, "total_progression": 6.7044, "progressive_carries": 0.1667, "shots_off_target": 0.2538 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0027, "history_matches": 11, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1164, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 10.5 to 18.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "assists": 0.0634, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0489, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.9, "projection_minutes": 10.48, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.702 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "assists": 0.0634, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0489, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.1126, xG scale 1.2682, xA scale 1.2682, team xA 1.12 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2046, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.411, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1126, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8871, "team_expected_assists": 1.125, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7973, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2682, "xa_scale": 1.2682, "opponent_lambda": 1.37, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.702 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2046, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4102, "fifa_rank": 3255.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.028, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2046, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "scorer_weight": 0.0345, "squad_weight_total": 1.4986, "weight_share": 0.023, "finishing_factor": 1.2046, "appearance_weight": 0.702, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.5152, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5152, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2077 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.405, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "goal_rate": 0.0489, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1387, "total_shots": 0.5194, "rating": 6.629, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 5.7775, "accurate_pass": 5.2937, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.25, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8201, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4734, "crosses_total": 0.1107, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1185, "possession_lost": 1.3807, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 0.2243, "tackles_won": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.3444, "clearances": 0.3432, "total_contest": 0.6112, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1499, "fouls": 0.1107, "fouls_drawn": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8907, "total_progression": 10.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.25, "shots_off_target": 0.3807, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.702, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.9, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.028, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0275, "finishing_factor": 1.2046, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0275, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "provider_weight": 0.0351, "squad_weight_total": 1.1331, "weight_share": 0.031, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.702, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1986, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1986, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1655, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Rayan" ] } ] } } ] }, "Eli Junior Kroupi": { "player_id": 1426228, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 179, "market_value": 72000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1295, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0547, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009109 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.008538 } ], "others_margin": -0.022949 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0138, quality 0.873)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1069, "goals": 0.1178, "goal_rate": 0.1178, "shots_on_target": 0.3343, "total_shots": 1.0295, "expected_assists": 0.0451, "key_pass": 0.4795, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 17.55, "total_pass": 6.255, "accurate_pass": 4.6328, "duels_won": 1.0461, "total_long_balls": 0.1524, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.376, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1623, "crosses_total": 0.6152, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2418, "possession_lost": 3.8499, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 1.6677, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 0.9942, "won_contest": 0.6116, "ball_recovery": 1.1579, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 0.6773, "fouls_drawn": 0.1225, "assists": 0.1695, "assist_rate": 0.1695, "interceptions": 0.312, "tackles_won": 0.2482, "tackles": 0.2482, "clearances": 1.0511, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1695, "big_chances_missed": 0.1124, "xgot": 0.1863, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4356, "total_progression": 6.7449, "progressive_carries": 0.7166, "shots_off_target": 0.6952 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 72000000, "quality_factor": 0.8734, "boost_factor": 1.0138, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.6 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1603, "goals": 0.1767, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assists": 0.2543, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2794, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.02, "projection_minutes": 17.55, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.637 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1603, "goals": 0.1767, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assists": 0.2543, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2794, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1603, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2794, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.1126, xG scale 1.2682, xA scale 1.2682, team xA 1.12 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1295, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0547, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2257, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.078, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.411, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1126, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8871, "team_expected_assists": 1.125, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7973, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2682, "xa_scale": 1.2682, "opponent_lambda": 1.37, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1603, "after": 0.1295 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0677, "after": 0.0547 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1295, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0547, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2257, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.078, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1554, "fifa_rank": 703.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1295, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0547, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2257, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1172, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.078, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1172, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "scorer_weight": 0.1396, "squad_weight_total": 1.4986, "weight_share": 0.0932, "finishing_factor": 1.078, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.5152, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5152, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2077 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1295, "goal_rate": 0.1767, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5014, "total_shots": 1.5443, "expected_assists": 0.0547, "key_pass": 0.7192, "rating": 6.6671, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.3825, "accurate_pass": 6.9492, "duels_won": 1.5692, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7435, "crosses_total": 0.9228, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3627, "possession_lost": 5.7748, "dispossessed": 0.064, "duels_lost": 2.5015, "aerial_lost": 0.4978, "total_contest": 1.4913, "won_contest": 0.9174, "ball_recovery": 1.7369, "challenges_lost": 0.0462, "fouls": 1.016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1837, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.468, "tackles_won": 0.3723, "tackles": 0.3723, "clearances": 1.5766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2543, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.2257, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1534, "total_progression": 10.1174, "progressive_carries": 1.0749, "shots_off_target": 1.0428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1172, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0524, "finishing_factor": 1.078, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0524, "assist_rate": 0.2543, "provider_weight": 0.0684, "squad_weight_total": 1.1331, "weight_share": 0.0603, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1986, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1986, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1655, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Rayan" ] } ] } } ] }, "Juanlu Sánchez": { "player_id": 1010655, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 186, "market_value": 9700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0057, "total": 6.7082, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.082566 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030218 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017454 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006655 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006463 } ], "others_margin": -0.005831 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0005, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.43, "expected_assists": 0.0461, "assists": 0.0507, "assist_rate": 0.0507, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.034, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.364, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 23.56, "total_pass": 11.1942, "accurate_pass": 8.9087, "duels_won": 2.4973, "total_long_balls": 1.4267, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6451, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7669, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0231, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4273, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8855, "crosses_total": 0.912, "crosses_accurate": 0.5415, "touches": 18.8999, "possession_lost": 4.4144, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.3156, "aerial_won": 0.1485, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7789, "tackles": 1.2475, "clearances": 0.5514, "total_contest": 0.6499, "won_contest": 0.4366, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2564, "fouls_drawn": 0.6648, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3631, "total_progression": 35.7723, "progressive_carries": 1.3535, "shots_off_target": 0.2383 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9700000, "quality_factor": 0.5189, "boost_factor": 1.0005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.6 to 22.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.048, "assist_rate": 0.048, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, "total_contest": 0.615, "won_contest": 0.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1288, "total_progression": 33.8515, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2255, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.29, "projection_minutes": 23.56, "minutes_scale": 0.9463, "appearance_probability": 0.513 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.048, "assist_rate": 0.048, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, "total_contest": 0.615, "won_contest": 0.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1288, "total_progression": 33.8515, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2255, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, "total_contest": 0.615, "won_contest": 0.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1288, "total_progression": 33.8515, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2255, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.1126, xG scale 1.2682, xA scale 1.2682, team xA 1.12 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, "total_contest": 0.615, "won_contest": 0.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1288, "total_progression": 33.8515, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2255, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1417, "creation_factor": 1.047 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.411, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1126, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8871, "team_expected_assists": 1.125, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7973, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2682, "xa_scale": 1.2682, "opponent_lambda": 1.37, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.513 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.022, "after": 0.0143 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0436, "after": 0.0284 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, "total_contest": 0.615, "won_contest": 0.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1288, "total_progression": 33.8515, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2255, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1417, "creation_factor": 1.047, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3394, "fifa_rank": 1983.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, "total_contest": 0.615, "won_contest": 0.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1288, "total_progression": 33.8515, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2255, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0141, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1417, "creation_factor": 1.047, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0141, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "scorer_weight": 0.0163, "squad_weight_total": 1.4986, "weight_share": 0.0109, "finishing_factor": 1.1417, "appearance_weight": 0.513, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.5152, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5152, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2077 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4069, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.119, "total_shots": 0.3445, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 22.29, "total_pass": 10.5931, "accurate_pass": 8.4304, "duels_won": 2.3632, "total_long_balls": 1.3501, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8608, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5695, "crosses_total": 0.863, "crosses_accurate": 0.5124, "touches": 17.8851, "possession_lost": 4.1774, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 1.245, "aerial_won": 0.1405, "aerial_lost": 0.3007, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7371, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.5218, "total_contest": 0.615, "won_contest": 0.4132, "challenges_lost": 0.2446, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1288, "total_progression": 33.8515, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "shots_off_target": 0.2255, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.544, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0141, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0276, "finishing_factor": 1.1417, "creation_factor": 1.047, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0276, "assist_rate": 0.048, "provider_weight": 0.0297, "squad_weight_total": 1.1331, "weight_share": 0.0262, "creation_factor": 1.047, "appearance_weight": 0.513, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1986, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1986, "runner_up": "Justin Kluivert", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1655, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Rayan" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.41, "expected_assists": 1.12, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 459, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.94, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Saša Lukić", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 9400000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.515, "defenders": [ "Adam Smith" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.527, "xg_contribution": 0.048, "xg_multiplier": 1.0692, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Smith", "role": "RB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.473 } ], "duel_analysis": "Saša Lukić (LW) is slightly favored against Adam Smith in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Julio Enciso", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Adrien Truffert" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.418, "xg_contribution": 0.1869, "xg_multiplier": 0.9087, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Truffert", "role": "LB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.582 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julio Enciso (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Adrien Truffert in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.187 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Exequiel Palacios", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Tyler Adams", "Lewis Cook" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.633, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.264, "xg_contribution": 0.0347, "xg_multiplier": 1.0346, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tyler Adams", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 }, { "player": "Lewis Cook", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 } ], "duel_analysis": "Exequiel Palacios (CAM) is evenly matched against Tyler Adams and Lewis Cook in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Emersonn", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "James Hill", "António Silva" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2741, "xg_multiplier": 0.9199, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Hill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "António Silva", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emersonn (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against James Hill and António Silva in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.274 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Florentino Luís", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 15500000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.585, "defenders": [ "Tyler Adams" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "xg_contribution": 0.0473, "xg_multiplier": 0.9553, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tyler Adams", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.61 } ], "duel_analysis": "Florentino Luís (CDM) is evenly matched against Tyler Adams in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €31M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Abdoul Ouattara", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Tyler Adams" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.379, "xg_contribution": 0.0415, "xg_multiplier": 0.9396, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tyler Adams", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.621 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdoul Ouattara (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Tyler Adams in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Justin Kluivert", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Dara O'Shea" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "xg_contribution": 0.1626, "xg_multiplier": 0.8794, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dara O'Shea", "role": "RB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.602 } ], "duel_analysis": "Justin Kluivert (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Dara O'Shea in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.163 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Christie", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.347, "xg_contribution": 0.0728, "xg_multiplier": 0.8051, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "LB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.653 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Christie (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Leif Davis in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alex Scott", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 75000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.877, "defenders": [ "Florentino Luís", "Abdoul Ouattara" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.59, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.342, "xg_contribution": 0.1004, "xg_multiplier": 1.1496, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florentino Luís", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658 }, { "player": "Abdoul Ouattara", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Scott (CAM) is slightly favored against Florentino Luís and Abdoul Ouattara in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€75M vs €16M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Rayan", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Issa Diop", "Jacob Greaves" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.56, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "xg_contribution": 0.3331, "xg_multiplier": 1.1097, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 }, { "player": "Jacob Greaves", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan (ST) is slightly favored against Issa Diop and Jacob Greaves in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €13M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.333 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Tyler Adams", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Florentino Luís" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "xg_contribution": 0.0438, "xg_multiplier": 1.0447, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florentino Luís", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.55 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyler Adams (CDM) is evenly matched against Florentino Luís in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €16M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lewis Cook", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 11600000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.541, "defenders": [ "Florentino Luís" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.362, "xg_contribution": 0.0325, "xg_multiplier": 0.9146, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florentino Luís", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.638 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewis Cook (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Florentino Luís in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.667, "away_midfield_power": 0.713, "home_creative_power": 0.584, "away_creative_power": 0.617, "home_defensive_power": 0.601, "away_defensive_power": 0.519, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.483, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Saša Lukić", "Julio Enciso", "Florentino Luís", "Exequiel Palacios", "Abdoul Ouattara" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Alex Scott", "Tyler Adams", "Justin Kluivert", "Ryan Christie", "Lewis Cook" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.2, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Julio Enciso vs Alex Scott", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.0, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.005 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.37, "away_lambda": 1.411, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Saša Lukić": { "opponents": [ "Adam Smith", "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julio Enciso": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Truffert", "Ryan Christie" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Exequiel Palacios": { "opponents": [ "Tyler Adams", "Lewis Cook", "Alex Scott" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Emersonn": { "opponents": [ "James Hill", "António Silva" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Florentino Luís": { "opponents": [ "Tyler Adams", "Alex Scott", "Lewis Cook" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdoul Ouattara": { "opponents": [ "Tyler Adams", "Alex Scott", "Lewis Cook" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dara O'Shea": { "opponents": [ "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leif Davis": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Christie" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Issa Diop": { "opponents": [ "Rayan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jacob Greaves": { "opponents": [ "Rayan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Christian Walton": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Adam Smith": { "opponents": [ "Saša Lukić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adrien Truffert": { "opponents": [ "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tyler Adams": { "opponents": [ "Exequiel Palacios", "Florentino Luís", "Abdoul Ouattara" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lewis Cook": { "opponents": [ "Exequiel Palacios", "Florentino Luís", "Abdoul Ouattara" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Hill": { "opponents": [ "Emersonn" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "António Silva": { "opponents": [ "Emersonn" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Justin Kluivert": { "opponents": [ "Dara O'Shea", "Saša Lukić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryan Christie": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis", "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alex Scott": { "opponents": [ "Florentino Luís", "Abdoul Ouattara", "Exequiel Palacios" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rayan": { "opponents": [ "Issa Diop", "Jacob Greaves" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Đorđe Petrović": { "opponents": [ "Emersonn", "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Julio Enciso vs Alex Scott will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.75. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0717, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9234, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9471, "home_midfield_factor": 1.0, "away_midfield_factor": 1.005, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6198, "away_avg_quality": 0.6806, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0608, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.441, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.5754, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.5225, "elite_count_gap": -2, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1475, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0811, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0472, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6325, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8369 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8369 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8369 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.0873 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0328, "result": 1.1229 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8989, "result": 1.0094 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9234, "result": 0.9321 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.1121 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1121, "result": 1.1121, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1475, "factor": 0.9528, "pre": 1.1121, "result": 1.0596 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0596 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1103, "result": 1.1703 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.2104 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2104, "result": 1.21, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.21, "result": 1.21, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.21 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.21 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.21, "result": 1.21, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.086, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.37 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7452, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9214 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.005, "result": 0.926 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.926 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.926 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1024, "result": 1.0208 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.0317 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9471, "result": 0.9771 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0717, "result": 1.0488 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0488, "result": 1.0488, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1475, "factor": 1.0811, "pre": 1.0488, "result": 1.1339 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1339 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.2097, "result": 1.3437 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.3505 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3505, "result": 1.351, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.351, "result": 1.351, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.351 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.351 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.351, "result": 1.351, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.086, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.411 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1103, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2097, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Ipswich Town", "away_squad": "Bournemouth", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.21, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.351, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2104, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3505, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.086, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.37, "final_away_lambda": 1.411 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0328, "attack_index": 1.111, "defense_concede_index": 0.977, "form_multiplier": 0.996, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.52, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.34, "team_ppg": 1.28, "opponent_ppg": 1.34 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1024, "attack_index": 1.01, "defense_concede_index": 1.257, "form_multiplier": 1.004, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.38, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.72, "team_ppg": 1.34, "opponent_ppg": 1.28 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Ipswich vs Bournemouth. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.210, Away 1.351). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.370, Away 1.411 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Ipswich Town", "away_squad": "Bournemouth", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.37, "away_lambda": 1.411, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.21, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.351 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.086, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:35:36Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }