{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Brighton", "away_team": "Brentford", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261108", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0883, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0883, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0788, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Brighton", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2382, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1079 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0883 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0788 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0719 }, { "score": "2-2", "probability": 0.065 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0449, "0-1": 0.0641, "0-2": 0.0478, "0-3": 0.0235, "0-4": 0.0086, "0-5": 0.0025, "0-6": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0719, "1-1": 0.1079, "1-2": 0.0788, "1-3": 0.0387, "1-4": 0.0142, "1-5": 0.0042, "1-6": 0.001, "2-0": 0.06, "2-1": 0.0883, "2-2": 0.065, "2-3": 0.0319, "2-4": 0.0117, "2-5": 0.0035, "2-6": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.033, "3-1": 0.0485, "3-2": 0.0357, "3-3": 0.0175, "3-4": 0.0064, "3-5": 0.0019, "4-0": 0.0136, "4-1": 0.02, "4-2": 0.0147, "4-3": 0.0072, "4-4": 0.0027, "4-5": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0045, "5-1": 0.0066, "5-2": 0.0049, "5-3": 0.0024, "5-4": 0.0009, "6-0": 0.0012, "6-1": 0.0018, "6-2": 0.0013, "6-3": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4191, "draw": 0.2382, "away_win": 0.3427 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6034, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3966, "btts_yes": 0.6232, "btts_no": 0.3768, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2295, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1922 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.87, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.8, "GK": 7.14 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 6.93, "ATR": 6.96, "GK": 6.79 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Brighton vs Brentford. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Brighton 4W-3D-3L vs Brentford over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Diego Gómez, Charalampos Kostoulas, Igor Thiago", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Yasin Ayari vs Mamadou Sangare will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.97, Away: 0.63. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.66, "home_lambda": 1.649, "away_lambda": 1.472, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 1.0071, "away_multiplier": 0.9929 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1079, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4191, "draw": 0.2382, "away_win": 0.3427 }, "favorite": "Brighton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4191, "fair_spread": 0.177, "fair_total": 3.121, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.649, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.472, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6034, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6232, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2295, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1922, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.3147, "probability": 0.27, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Igor Thiago (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.466, "probability": 0.3725, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Pascal Groß (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.2308, "probability": 0.2061, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mikkel Damsgaard (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.2008, "probability": 0.1819, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.121, "expected_total_shots": 28, "expected_total_passes": 851, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.3, "possession_home_pct": 49.6, "possession_away_pct": 50.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Brighton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4191, "script": "Brighton is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.18 goals and fair total 3.12.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Brentford must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Brighton lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Brentford chance creation leans on Igor Thiago against Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Brighton: starters carry the main goal usage through Diego Gómez, Charalampos Kostoulas; bench watchlist: Yankuba Minteh, Matt O'Riley.", "Brentford: starters carry the main goal usage through Igor Thiago; bench watchlist: Dango Ouattara, Antoni Milambo, Josh Dasilva.", "Assist usage should flow through Maxim De Cuyper, Mikkel Damsgaard; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Brighton tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.56 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Brentford is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Brighton.", "Brentford wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Brighton": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bart Verbruggen": { "player_id": 994363, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0723, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 30, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 49, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.5063, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 10.6253, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4619, "shots_faced": 14.0, "expected_saves": 3.43, "high_pressure_saves": 1.18, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Mikkel Damsgaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { 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"defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 47, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0075, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brighton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 47 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Brighton, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.0531, "goals_prevented": -0.0718, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.5571, "accurate_pass": 30.1712, "total_long_balls": 19.0488, "accurate_long_balls": 8.8266, "touches": 48.3545, "clearances": 0.8591, "ball_recovery": 7.8899, "high_claims": 0.4111, "punches": 0.5025, "aerial_won": 0.5458, "sweeper_actions": 1.1289, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0976, "saves_inside_box": 2.6558, "possession_lost": 10.5462, "duels_won": 0.6152, "duels_lost": 0.059, "total_contest": 0.0001, "won_contest": 0.0001, "fouls": 0.0039, "fouls_drawn": 0.0682, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4726 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-31", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 9.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-25", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-18", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1084, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0783, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 9.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 5.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 24.4726, "accurateLongBalls": 8.8266, "possessionLostCtrl": 10.5462, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.3562, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.5818, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.0976 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.05306339263916, "model_output": 3.0531, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.065 }, { 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"accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0385, "total": -0.0718, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.03347 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.022609 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016081 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.011505 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.011344 } ], "others_margin": -0.038418 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.13780403137207, "model_output": 7.1378, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0559 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.018 } ], "others": 0.007, "total": 7.1378, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.055866 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.027846 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.023083 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.018915 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017973 } ], "others_margin": 0.007012 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 47, "role_matches": 47, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "saves": 3.076, "goals_prevented": -0.0723, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8613, "accurate_pass": 30.3975, "total_long_balls": 19.1917, "accurate_long_balls": 8.8928, "touches": 48.7172, "clearances": 0.8655, "ball_recovery": 7.9491, "high_claims": 0.4142, "punches": 0.5063, "aerial_won": 0.5499, "sweeper_actions": 1.1374, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1058, "saves_inside_box": 2.6757, "possession_lost": 10.6253, "duels_won": 0.6198, "duels_lost": 0.0594, "total_contest": 0.0001, "won_contest": 0.0001, "fouls": 0.0039, "fouls_drawn": 0.0687, "total_own_half_passes": 26.1891, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6561 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0075, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 47, "history_shrink": 0.0962, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0083)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0545, "goals_prevented": -0.0723, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8613, "accurate_pass": 30.3975, "total_long_balls": 19.1917, "accurate_long_balls": 8.8928, "touches": 48.7172, "clearances": 0.8655, "ball_recovery": 7.9491, "high_claims": 0.4142, "punches": 0.5063, "aerial_won": 0.5499, "sweeper_actions": 1.1374, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1058, "saves_inside_box": 2.6757, "possession_lost": 10.6253, "duels_won": 0.6198, "duels_lost": 0.0594, "total_contest": 0.0001, "won_contest": 0.0001, "fouls": 0.0039, "fouls_drawn": 0.0681, "total_own_half_passes": 26.1891, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6561 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0083, "history_matches": 47, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 3.076, "after": 3.0545 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.0545, "goals_prevented": -0.0723, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8613, "accurate_pass": 30.3975, "total_long_balls": 19.1917, "accurate_long_balls": 8.8928, "touches": 48.7172, "clearances": 0.8655, "ball_recovery": 7.9491, "high_claims": 0.4142, "punches": 0.5063, "aerial_won": 0.5499, "sweeper_actions": 1.1374, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1058, "saves_inside_box": 2.6757, "possession_lost": 10.6253, "duels_won": 0.6198, "duels_lost": 0.0594, "total_contest": 0.0001, "won_contest": 0.0001, "fouls": 0.0039, "fouls_drawn": 0.0681, "total_own_half_passes": 26.1891, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6561 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0545, "goals_prevented": -0.0723, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8613, "accurate_pass": 30.3975, "total_long_balls": 19.1917, "accurate_long_balls": 8.8928, "touches": 48.7172, "clearances": 0.8655, "ball_recovery": 7.9491, "high_claims": 0.4142, "punches": 0.5063, "aerial_won": 0.5499, "sweeper_actions": 1.1374, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1058, "saves_inside_box": 2.6757, "possession_lost": 10.6253, "duels_won": 0.6198, "duels_lost": 0.0594, "total_contest": 0.0001, "won_contest": 0.0001, "fouls": 0.0039, "fouls_drawn": 0.0681, "total_own_half_passes": 26.1891, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6561, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4619, "shots_faced": 13.9, "expected_saves": 3.4, "high_pressure_saves": 1.17, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Mikkel Damsgaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Mikkel Damsgaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.4619 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.0545, "goals_prevented": -0.0723, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8613, "accurate_pass": 30.3975, "total_long_balls": 19.1917, "accurate_long_balls": 8.8928, "touches": 48.7172, "clearances": 0.8655, "ball_recovery": 7.9491, "high_claims": 0.4142, "punches": 0.5063, "aerial_won": 0.5499, "sweeper_actions": 1.1374, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1058, "saves_inside_box": 2.6757, "possession_lost": 10.6253, "duels_won": 0.6198, "duels_lost": 0.0594, "total_contest": 0.0001, "won_contest": 0.0001, "fouls": 0.0039, "fouls_drawn": 0.0681, "total_own_half_passes": 26.1891, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6561, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4619, "shots_faced": 13.9, "expected_saves": 3.4, "high_pressure_saves": 1.17, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Mikkel Damsgaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.65 (squad xG sum 1.3905, xG scale 1.1859, xA scale 1.2086, team xA 1.07 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0545, "goals_prevented": -0.0723, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8613, "accurate_pass": 30.3975, "total_long_balls": 19.1917, "accurate_long_balls": 8.8928, "touches": 48.7172, "clearances": 0.8655, "ball_recovery": 7.9491, "high_claims": 0.4142, "punches": 0.5063, "aerial_won": 0.5499, "sweeper_actions": 1.1374, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1058, "saves_inside_box": 2.6757, "possession_lost": 10.6253, "duels_won": 0.6198, "duels_lost": 0.0594, "total_contest": 0.0001, "won_contest": 0.0001, "fouls": 0.0039, "fouls_drawn": 0.0681, "total_own_half_passes": 26.1891, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6561, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4619, "shots_faced": 14.0, "expected_saves": 3.43, "high_pressure_saves": 1.18, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Mikkel Damsgaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.649, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3905, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8869, "team_expected_assists": 1.0718, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1859, "xa_scale": 1.2086, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 13.9, "after": 14.0 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.4, "after": 3.43 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.17, "after": 1.18 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0545, "goals_prevented": -0.0723, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8613, "accurate_pass": 30.3975, "total_long_balls": 19.1917, "accurate_long_balls": 8.8928, "touches": 48.7172, "clearances": 0.8655, "ball_recovery": 7.9491, "high_claims": 0.4142, "punches": 0.5063, "aerial_won": 0.5499, "sweeper_actions": 1.1374, "sweeper_accurate": 1.1058, "saves_inside_box": 2.6757, "possession_lost": 10.6253, "duels_won": 0.6198, "duels_lost": 0.0594, "total_contest": 0.0001, "won_contest": 0.0001, "fouls": 0.0039, "fouls_drawn": 0.0681, "total_own_half_passes": 26.1891, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6561, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4619, "shots_faced": 14.0, "expected_saves": 3.43, "high_pressure_saves": 1.18, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Mikkel Damsgaard", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.6715, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3283, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3283, "runner_up": "Diego Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2416 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Diego Gómez", "weight": 0.2416, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2416, "runner_up": "Jack Hinshelwood", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2026 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0545, "goals_prevented": -0.0723, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.8613, "accurate_pass": 30.3975, "total_long_balls": 19.1917, "accurate_long_balls": 8.8928, "touches": 48.7172, "clearances": 0.8655, "ball_recovery": 7.9491, "high_claims": 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"totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0592 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.029 } ], "others": -0.0366, "total": 0.8255, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.413873 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11694 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.068603 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.064292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.03308 } ], "others_margin": -0.043498 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5398314595222473, "model_output": 0.5398, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0586 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 0.5398, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058611 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.0202 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.016247 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012684 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.011441 } ], "others_margin": -0.028106 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.787617206573486, "model_output": 6.7876, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 6.7876, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018385 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018337 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011322 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.009131 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.008819 } ], "others_margin": -0.000106 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8164, "tackles": 1.181, "tackles_won": 0.6892, "clearances": 2.5279, "aerial_won": 0.8326, "total_shots": 0.5445, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 75.94, "total_pass": 32.1844, "accurate_pass": 27.6627, "duels_won": 1.9757, "total_long_balls": 2.5775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4803, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2757, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9554, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7072, "crosses_total": 1.4911, "crosses_accurate": 0.1223, "touches": 48.3673, "possession_lost": 8.3718, "dispossessed": 0.1239, "duels_lost": 2.013, "aerial_lost": 1.0305, "total_contest": 0.2907, "won_contest": 0.1402, "ball_recovery": 2.6296, "challenges_lost": 0.3093, "fouls": 0.4052, "fouls_drawn": 0.8742, "blocks": 0.2128, "goals": 0.0256, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "shots_on_target": 0.3505, "big_chances_created": 0.0841, "xgot": 0.0567, "ball_carries": 10.9294, "total_progression": 39.7261, "progressive_carries": 0.9404, "key_pass": 0.5406, "shots_off_target": 0.194 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0086, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8164, "tackles": 1.181, "tackles_won": 0.6892, "clearances": 2.5279, "aerial_won": 0.8326, "total_shots": 0.5445, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 75.94, "total_pass": 32.1844, "accurate_pass": 27.6627, "duels_won": 1.9757, "total_long_balls": 2.5775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4803, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2757, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9554, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7072, "crosses_total": 1.4911, "crosses_accurate": 0.1223, "touches": 48.3673, "possession_lost": 8.3718, "dispossessed": 0.1239, "duels_lost": 2.013, "aerial_lost": 1.0305, "total_contest": 0.2907, "won_contest": 0.1402, "ball_recovery": 2.6296, "challenges_lost": 0.3093, "fouls": 0.4052, "fouls_drawn": 0.8742, "blocks": 0.2128, "goals": 0.0256, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "shots_on_target": 0.3505, "big_chances_created": 0.0841, "xgot": 0.0567, "ball_carries": 10.9294, "total_progression": 39.7261, "progressive_carries": 0.9404, "key_pass": 0.5406, "shots_off_target": 0.194 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8164, "tackles": 1.181, "tackles_won": 0.6892, "clearances": 2.5279, "aerial_won": 0.8326, "total_shots": 0.5445, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 75.94, "total_pass": 32.1844, "accurate_pass": 27.6627, "duels_won": 1.9757, "total_long_balls": 2.5775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4803, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2757, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9554, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7072, "crosses_total": 1.4911, "crosses_accurate": 0.1223, "touches": 48.3673, "possession_lost": 8.3718, "dispossessed": 0.1239, "duels_lost": 2.013, "aerial_lost": 1.0305, "total_contest": 0.2907, "won_contest": 0.1402, "ball_recovery": 2.6296, "challenges_lost": 0.3093, "fouls": 0.4052, "fouls_drawn": 0.8742, "blocks": 0.2128, "goals": 0.0256, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "shots_on_target": 0.3505, "big_chances_created": 0.0841, "xgot": 0.0567, "ball_carries": 10.9294, "total_progression": 39.7261, "progressive_carries": 0.9404, "key_pass": 0.5406, "shots_off_target": 0.194, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8164, "tackles": 1.181, "tackles_won": 0.6892, "clearances": 2.5279, "aerial_won": 0.8326, "total_shots": 0.5445, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 75.94, "total_pass": 32.1844, "accurate_pass": 27.6627, "duels_won": 1.9757, "total_long_balls": 2.5775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4803, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2757, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9554, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7072, "crosses_total": 1.4911, "crosses_accurate": 0.1223, "touches": 48.3673, "possession_lost": 8.3718, "dispossessed": 0.1239, "duels_lost": 2.013, "aerial_lost": 1.0305, "total_contest": 0.2907, "won_contest": 0.1402, "ball_recovery": 2.6296, "challenges_lost": 0.3093, "fouls": 0.4052, "fouls_drawn": 0.8742, "blocks": 0.2128, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "shots_on_target": 0.3505, "big_chances_created": 0.0841, "xgot": 0.0567, "ball_carries": 10.9294, "total_progression": 39.7261, "progressive_carries": 0.9404, "key_pass": 0.5406, "shots_off_target": 0.194, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.65 (squad xG sum 1.3905, xG scale 1.1859, xA scale 1.2086, team xA 1.07 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8164, "tackles": 1.181, "tackles_won": 0.6892, "clearances": 2.5279, "aerial_won": 0.8326, "total_shots": 0.5445, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 75.94, "total_pass": 32.1844, "accurate_pass": 27.6627, "duels_won": 1.9757, "total_long_balls": 2.5775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4803, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2757, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9554, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7072, "crosses_total": 1.4911, "crosses_accurate": 0.1223, "touches": 48.3673, "possession_lost": 8.3718, "dispossessed": 0.1239, "duels_lost": 2.013, "aerial_lost": 1.0305, "total_contest": 0.2907, "won_contest": 0.1402, "ball_recovery": 2.6296, "challenges_lost": 0.3093, "fouls": 0.4052, "fouls_drawn": 0.8742, "blocks": 0.2128, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "expected_assists": 0.0648, "shots_on_target": 0.3505, "big_chances_created": 0.0841, "xgot": 0.0672, "ball_carries": 10.9294, "total_progression": 39.7261, "progressive_carries": 0.9404, "key_pass": 0.5406, "shots_off_target": 0.194, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9322, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.649, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3905, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8869, "team_expected_assists": 1.0718, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1859, "xa_scale": 1.2086, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0311, "after": 0.0369 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0536, "after": 0.0648 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8164, "tackles": 1.181, "tackles_won": 0.6892, "clearances": 2.5279, "aerial_won": 0.8326, "total_shots": 0.5445, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 75.94, "total_pass": 32.1844, "accurate_pass": 27.6627, "duels_won": 1.9757, "total_long_balls": 2.5775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4803, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2757, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9554, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7072, "crosses_total": 1.4911, "crosses_accurate": 0.1223, "touches": 48.3673, "possession_lost": 8.3718, "dispossessed": 0.1239, "duels_lost": 2.013, "aerial_lost": 1.0305, "total_contest": 0.2907, "won_contest": 0.1402, "ball_recovery": 2.6296, "challenges_lost": 0.3093, "fouls": 0.4052, "fouls_drawn": 0.8742, "blocks": 0.2128, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "expected_assists": 0.0648, "shots_on_target": 0.3505, "big_chances_created": 0.0841, "xgot": 0.0672, "ball_carries": 10.9294, "total_progression": 39.7261, "progressive_carries": 0.9404, "key_pass": 0.5406, "shots_off_target": 0.194, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9322, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1236, "fifa_rank": 675.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8164, "tackles": 1.181, "tackles_won": 0.6892, "clearances": 2.5279, "aerial_won": 0.8326, "total_shots": 0.5445, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 75.94, "total_pass": 32.1844, "accurate_pass": 27.6627, "duels_won": 1.9757, "total_long_balls": 2.5775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4803, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2757, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9554, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9087, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7072, "crosses_total": 1.4911, "crosses_accurate": 0.1223, "touches": 48.3673, "possession_lost": 8.3718, "dispossessed": 0.1239, "duels_lost": 2.013, "aerial_lost": 1.0305, "total_contest": 0.2907, "won_contest": 0.1402, "ball_recovery": 2.6296, "challenges_lost": 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"opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1121, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0953, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.081, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0688, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0585, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0497, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0423, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0359, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.2305, "aerialWon": 0.8864, "totalClearance_p90": 3.9098, "totalTackle": 0.576, "totalTackle_p90": 0.6324 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0785883665084839, "model_output": 1.0786, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1141 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0312 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0253 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 1.0786, "log_link": true, 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.243 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1393 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0716 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0295 } ], "others": -0.0308, "total": 1.1037, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.195259 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116601 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.058173 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.025811 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.025643 } ], "others_margin": -0.027608 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5807057619094849, "model_output": 0.5807, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0541 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0207 } ], "others": 0.0322, "total": 0.5807, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058162 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.054126 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021735 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.020768 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.020737 } ], "others_margin": 0.032181 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.842218399047852, "model_output": 6.8422, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0133, "total": 6.8422, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021467 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.016905 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016869 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013747 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.012257 } ], "others_margin": -0.013293 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.616)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0855, "tackles": 1.1139, "tackles_won": 0.6637, "clearances": 3.1032, "aerial_won": 1.1108, "total_shots": 0.5844, "rating": 6.8422, "minutes": 76.74, "total_pass": 50.7423, "accurate_pass": 42.142, "duels_won": 2.4608, "total_long_balls": 6.661, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5001, "total_own_half_passes": 25.8422, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3549, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7872, "crosses_total": 2.4376, "crosses_accurate": 0.4868, "touches": 66.4661, "possession_lost": 11.7823, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.1471, "aerial_lost": 1.2703, "total_contest": 0.1713, "won_contest": 0.0357, "ball_recovery": 3.4769, "challenges_lost": 0.8494, "fouls": 0.8919, "fouls_drawn": 0.8992, "blocks": 0.2355, "goals": 0.0, 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2.9296629428863525, "model_output": 2.9297, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.675 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2386 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2082 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.176 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1046 } ], "others": 0.1576, "total": 2.9297, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.400673 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110352 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.087249 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.068266 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.038473 } ], "others_margin": 0.05528 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1899515390396118, "model_output": 1.19, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4481 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0397 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0238 } ], "others": 0.1299, "total": 1.19, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.4481 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.039725 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.038132 }, { "name": 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0.045511 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.033091 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.032886 } ], "others_margin": 0.002446 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0390, quality 0.869)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.33, "tackles": 1.2886, "tackles_won": 0.7207, "clearances": 6.2204, "aerial_won": 3.0439, "total_shots": 1.2364, "rating": 7.0116, "minutes": 89.15, "total_pass": 60.9861, "accurate_pass": 54.018, "duels_won": 5.499, "total_long_balls": 7.2079, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7068, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.3287, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6892, "crosses_total": 0.3254, "crosses_accurate": 0.1724, "touches": 78.4261, "possession_lost": 8.3412, "dispossessed": 0.3015, "duels_lost": 3.9299, "aerial_lost": 1.8589, "total_contest": 0.3734, "won_contest": 0.2488, "ball_recovery": 4.8212, "challenges_lost": 0.5592, "fouls": 1.2324, "fouls_drawn": 0.8317, "blocks": 1.0488, "goals": 0.0765, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0596 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0157 } ], "others": -0.0243, "total": 6.9584, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.059581 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.038117 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.032381 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020457 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015745 } ], "others_margin": -0.024416 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0074, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0946, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "assists": 0.1106, "assist_rate": 0.1106, "expected_goals": 0.1764, "goals": 0.224, "goal_rate": 0.224, "shots_on_target": 0.6873, "total_shots": 1.8663, "rating": 6.9584, "minutes": 83.81, "total_pass": 31.8445, "accurate_pass": 22.8518, "duels_won": 6.7887, "total_long_balls": 1.5496, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5673, "total_own_half_passes": 8.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6516, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2001, "crosses_total": 1.7467, "crosses_accurate": 0.3719, "touches": 51.5154, "possession_lost": 15.6158, "dispossessed": 1.1911, "duels_lost": 7.414, "aerial_won": 3.4181, "aerial_lost": 2.2379, "interceptions": 0.7884, "tackles_won": 1.1319, "tackles": 2.2233, "clearances": 1.3536, "total_contest": 2.1816, "won_contest": 0.944, "challenges_lost": 1.4142, "fouls": 1.3389, "fouls_drawn": 0.2031, "blocks": 0.0334, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "big_chances_missed": 0.3824, "xgot": 0.1073, "ball_carries": 14.5304, "total_progression": 67.1325, "progressive_carries": 2.2036, "shots_off_target": 1.179 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0074, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0946, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "assists": 0.114, "assist_rate": 0.114, "expected_goals": 0.1764, "goals": 0.222, "goal_rate": 0.222, "shots_on_target": 0.694, "total_shots": 1.8839, "rating": 6.9584, "minutes": 83.81, "total_pass": 31.8445, "accurate_pass": 22.8518, "duels_won": 6.7887, "total_long_balls": 1.5496, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5673, "total_own_half_passes": 8.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6516, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2001, "crosses_total": 1.7486, "crosses_accurate": 0.3719, "touches": 51.5154, "possession_lost": 15.6158, "dispossessed": 1.1911, "duels_lost": 7.414, "aerial_won": 3.4181, "aerial_lost": 2.2379, "interceptions": 0.7901, "tackles_won": 1.1393, "tackles": 2.2233, "clearances": 1.3536, "total_contest": 2.1816, "won_contest": 0.944, "challenges_lost": 1.4142, "fouls": 1.3357, "fouls_drawn": 0.2013, "blocks": 0.0334, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "big_chances_missed": 0.3824, "xgot": 0.1073, "ball_carries": 14.5304, "total_progression": 67.1325, "progressive_carries": 2.2036, "shots_off_target": 1.179 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9312, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8663, "after": 1.8839 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1319, "after": 1.1393 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6873, "after": 0.694 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0946, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "assists": 0.114, "assist_rate": 0.114, "expected_goals": 0.1764, "goals": 0.222, "goal_rate": 0.222, "shots_on_target": 0.694, "total_shots": 1.8839, "rating": 6.9584, "minutes": 83.81, "total_pass": 31.8445, "accurate_pass": 22.8518, "duels_won": 6.7887, "total_long_balls": 1.5496, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5673, "total_own_half_passes": 8.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6516, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2001, "crosses_total": 1.7486, "crosses_accurate": 0.3719, "touches": 51.5154, "possession_lost": 15.6158, "dispossessed": 1.1911, "duels_lost": 7.414, "aerial_won": 3.4181, "aerial_lost": 2.2379, "interceptions": 0.7901, "tackles_won": 1.1393, "tackles": 2.2233, "clearances": 1.3536, "total_contest": 2.1816, "won_contest": 0.944, "challenges_lost": 1.4142, "fouls": 1.3357, "fouls_drawn": 0.2013, "blocks": 0.0334, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "big_chances_missed": 0.3824, "xgot": 0.1073, "ball_carries": 14.5304, "total_progression": 67.1325, "progressive_carries": 2.2036, "shots_off_target": 1.179 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0946, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "assists": 0.114, "assist_rate": 0.114, "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goals": 0.2137, "goal_rate": 0.2137, "shots_on_target": 0.668, "total_shots": 1.8134, "rating": 6.9584, "minutes": 83.81, "total_pass": 31.8445, "accurate_pass": 22.8518, "duels_won": 6.7887, "total_long_balls": 1.5496, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5673, "total_own_half_passes": 8.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6516, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2001, "crosses_total": 1.7486, "crosses_accurate": 0.3719, "touches": 51.5154, "possession_lost": 15.6158, "dispossessed": 1.1911, "duels_lost": 7.414, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.2379, "interceptions": 0.7901, "tackles_won": 1.1393, "tackles": 2.2233, "clearances": 1.3536, "total_contest": 2.1816, "won_contest": 0.944, "challenges_lost": 1.4142, "fouls": 1.3357, "fouls_drawn": 0.2013, "blocks": 0.0334, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "big_chances_missed": 0.3681, "xgot": 0.1033, "ball_carries": 14.5304, "total_progression": 67.1325, "progressive_carries": 2.2036, "shots_off_target": 1.1349, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9626, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Michael Kayode", "opponent_faced": "Michael Kayode", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Michael Kayode", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9626, "skill_edge": -0.0494, "height_edge": 0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.732, "defender_skill": 0.8419, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Michael Kayode", "market_value": 39000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.8419 } ], "xg_override": 0.1698 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 3.4181, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8839, "after": 1.8134 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.179, "after": 1.1349 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.694, "after": 0.668 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3824, "after": 0.3681 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.222, "after": 0.2137 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1764, "after": 0.1698 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0946, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "assist_rate": 0.114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goal_rate": 0.2137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.668, "total_shots": 1.8134, "rating": 6.9584, "minutes": 83.81, "total_pass": 31.8445, "accurate_pass": 22.8518, "duels_won": 6.7887, "total_long_balls": 1.5496, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5673, "total_own_half_passes": 8.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6516, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2001, "crosses_total": 1.7486, "crosses_accurate": 0.3719, "touches": 51.5154, "possession_lost": 15.6158, "dispossessed": 1.1911, "duels_lost": 7.414, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.2379, "interceptions": 0.7901, "tackles_won": 1.1393, "tackles": 2.2233, "clearances": 1.3536, "total_contest": 2.1816, "won_contest": 0.944, "challenges_lost": 1.4142, "fouls": 1.3357, "fouls_drawn": 0.2013, "blocks": 0.0334, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "big_chances_missed": 0.3681, "xgot": 0.1033, "ball_carries": 14.5304, "total_progression": 67.1325, "progressive_carries": 2.2036, "shots_off_target": 1.1349, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9626, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Michael Kayode", "opponent_faced": "Michael Kayode", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.65 (squad xG sum 1.3905, xG scale 1.1859, xA scale 1.2086, team xA 1.07 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0946, "expected_assists": 0.1328, "assist_rate": 0.114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2014, "goal_rate": 0.2137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.668, "total_shots": 1.8134, "rating": 6.9584, "minutes": 83.81, "total_pass": 31.8445, "accurate_pass": 22.8518, "duels_won": 6.7887, "total_long_balls": 1.5496, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5673, "total_own_half_passes": 8.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6516, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2001, "crosses_total": 1.7486, "crosses_accurate": 0.3719, "touches": 51.5154, "possession_lost": 15.6158, "dispossessed": 1.1911, "duels_lost": 7.414, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.2379, "interceptions": 0.7901, "tackles_won": 1.1393, "tackles": 2.2233, "clearances": 1.3536, "total_contest": 2.1816, "won_contest": 0.944, "challenges_lost": 1.4142, "fouls": 1.3357, "fouls_drawn": 0.2013, "blocks": 0.0334, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "big_chances_missed": 0.3681, "xgot": 0.1225, "ball_carries": 14.5304, "total_progression": 67.1325, "progressive_carries": 2.2036, "shots_off_target": 1.1349, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9626, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Michael Kayode", "opponent_faced": "Michael Kayode", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1997, "creation_factor": 1.0256 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.649, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3905, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8869, "team_expected_assists": 1.0718, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1859, "xa_scale": 1.2086, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1698, "after": 0.2014 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1099, "after": 0.1328 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0946, "expected_assists": 0.1328, "assist_rate": 0.114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2014, "goal_rate": 0.2137, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.668, "total_shots": 1.8134, "rating": 6.9584, "minutes": 83.81, "total_pass": 31.8445, "accurate_pass": 22.8518, "duels_won": 6.7887, "total_long_balls": 1.5496, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5673, "total_own_half_passes": 8.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6516, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2001, "crosses_total": 1.7486, "crosses_accurate": 0.3719, "touches": 51.5154, "possession_lost": 15.6158, "dispossessed": 1.1911, "duels_lost": 7.414, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.2379, "interceptions": 0.7901, "tackles_won": 1.1393, "tackles": 2.2233, "clearances": 1.3536, "total_contest": 2.1816, "won_contest": 0.944, "challenges_lost": 1.4142, "fouls": 1.3357, "fouls_drawn": 0.2013, "blocks": 0.0334, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "big_chances_missed": 0.3681, "xgot": 0.1225, "ball_carries": 14.5304, "total_progression": 67.1325, "progressive_carries": 2.2036, "shots_off_target": 1.1349, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9626, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Michael Kayode", "opponent_faced": "Michael Kayode", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1997, "creation_factor": 1.0256, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1631, "fifa_rank": 1122.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0946, "expected_assists": 0.1328, "assist_rate": 0.114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2014, "goal_rate": 0.2137, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.668, "total_shots": 1.8134, "rating": 6.9584, "minutes": 83.81, "total_pass": 31.8445, "accurate_pass": 22.8518, "duels_won": 6.7887, "total_long_balls": 1.5496, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5673, "total_own_half_passes": 8.6311, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6516, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2001, "crosses_total": 1.7486, "crosses_accurate": 0.3719, "touches": 51.5154, "possession_lost": 15.6158, "dispossessed": 1.1911, "duels_lost": 7.414, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.2379, "interceptions": 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0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.180506 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.157486 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.058689 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.043209 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040375 } ], "others_margin": 0.031096 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.069599628448486, "model_output": 7.0696, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0855 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": 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4.0317, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7724, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6896, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4899, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.0326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.0349, "crosses_total": 6.0034, "crosses_accurate": 1.7859, "touches": 71.3301, "possession_lost": 13.5651, "dispossessed": 0.7196, "duels_lost": 4.7498, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.4222, "interceptions": 0.3822, "tackles_won": 0.5999, "tackles": 1.3248, "clearances": 1.9213, "total_contest": 0.2304, "won_contest": 0.0577, "challenges_lost": 1.3024, "fouls": 1.2839, "fouls_drawn": 0.3279, "blocks": 0.2284, "big_chances_created": 0.6283, "big_chances_missed": 0.0496, "xgot": 0.0749, "ball_carries": 19.1421, "total_progression": 57.6956, "progressive_carries": 0.788, "shots_off_target": 0.6383, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8327, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "opponent_faced": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8327, "skill_edge": -0.1578, "height_edge": 0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.7881, "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "market_value": 29000000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.7881 } ], "xg_override": 0.1218 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6008, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2936, "after": 1.0772 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7666, "after": 0.6383 }, { "stat": 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} }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.620605230331421, "model_output": 1.6206, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4345 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.176 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0496 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0493 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0439 } ], "others": -0.0298, "total": 1.6206, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.434507 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.175957 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.049581 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.049332 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043901 } ], "others_margin": -0.029806 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8520402908325195, "model_output": 6.852, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0405, "total": 6.852, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.035339 }, { "name": 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"margin": -0.262458 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123763 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.069443 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.025699 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.018933 } ], "others_margin": -0.12869 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.82777214050293, "model_output": 6.8278, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0384, "total": 6.8278, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031209 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016724 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015654 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009844 } ], "others_margin": -0.038322 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0211, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4304, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0466, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "expected_goals": 0.0607, "goals": 0.0712, "goal_rate": 0.0712, "shots_on_target": 0.1813, "total_shots": 0.6162, "rating": 6.8278, "minutes": 77.45, "total_pass": 37.2775, "accurate_pass": 30.8691, "duels_won": 4.9662, "total_long_balls": 1.9262, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1551, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.4471, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.422, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.5366, "possession_lost": 7.4233, "dispossessed": 0.234, "duels_lost": 4.006, "aerial_won": 0.9176, "aerial_lost": 0.801, "interceptions": 0.6906, "tackles_won": 1.926, "tackles": 3.4765, "clearances": 1.06, "total_contest": 0.8712, "won_contest": 0.234, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 1.7669, "fouls_drawn": 0.3382, "blocks": 0.1691, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1336, "ball_carries": 6.8602, "total_progression": 7.5641, "progressive_carries": 0.1691, "shots_off_target": 0.4349 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0211, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4304, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0466, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "expected_goals": 0.0607, "goals": 0.0712, "goal_rate": 0.0712, "shots_on_target": 0.1813, "total_shots": 0.6162, "rating": 6.8278, "minutes": 77.45, "total_pass": 37.2775, "accurate_pass": 30.8691, "duels_won": 4.9662, "total_long_balls": 1.9262, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1551, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.4471, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.422, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.5366, "possession_lost": 7.4233, "dispossessed": 0.234, "duels_lost": 4.006, "aerial_won": 0.9176, "aerial_lost": 0.801, "interceptions": 0.6906, "tackles_won": 1.926, "tackles": 3.4765, "clearances": 1.06, "total_contest": 0.8712, "won_contest": 0.234, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 1.7669, "fouls_drawn": 0.3382, "blocks": 0.1691, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1336, "ball_carries": 6.8602, "total_progression": 7.5641, "progressive_carries": 0.1691, "shots_off_target": 0.4349 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4304, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0466, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "expected_goals": 0.0636, "goals": 0.0746, "goal_rate": 0.0746, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.646, "rating": 6.8278, "minutes": 77.45, "total_pass": 37.2775, "accurate_pass": 30.8691, "duels_won": 4.9662, "total_long_balls": 1.9262, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1551, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.4471, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.422, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.5366, "possession_lost": 7.4233, "dispossessed": 0.234, "duels_lost": 4.006, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.801, "interceptions": 0.6906, "tackles_won": 1.926, "tackles": 3.4765, "clearances": 1.06, "total_contest": 0.8712, "won_contest": 0.234, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 1.7669, "fouls_drawn": 0.3382, "blocks": 0.1691, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1401, "ball_carries": 6.8602, "total_progression": 7.5641, "progressive_carries": 0.1691, "shots_off_target": 0.4559, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0484, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.453, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Vitaly Janelt", "opponent_faced": "Vitaly Janelt", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Vitaly Janelt", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.453, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0484, "skill_edge": 0.0089, "height_edge": 0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.6946, "defender_skill": 0.6747, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "market_value": 21000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.6747 } ], "xg_override": 0.0636 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.9176, "after": 1.3 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6162, "after": 0.646 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4349, "after": 0.4559 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1813, "after": 0.1901 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1336, "after": 0.1401 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4304, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0636, "goal_rate": 0.0746, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.646, "rating": 6.8278, "minutes": 77.45, "total_pass": 37.2775, "accurate_pass": 30.8691, "duels_won": 4.9662, "total_long_balls": 1.9262, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1551, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.4471, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.422, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.5366, "possession_lost": 7.4233, "dispossessed": 0.234, "duels_lost": 4.006, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.801, "interceptions": 0.6906, "tackles_won": 1.926, "tackles": 3.4765, "clearances": 1.06, "total_contest": 0.8712, "won_contest": 0.234, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 1.7669, "fouls_drawn": 0.3382, "blocks": 0.1691, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1401, "ball_carries": 6.8602, "total_progression": 7.5641, "progressive_carries": 0.1691, "shots_off_target": 0.4559, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0484, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.453, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Vitaly Janelt", "opponent_faced": "Vitaly Janelt", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.65 (squad xG sum 1.3905, xG scale 1.1859, xA scale 1.2086, team xA 1.07 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4304, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0754, "goal_rate": 0.0746, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.646, "rating": 6.8278, "minutes": 77.45, "total_pass": 37.2775, "accurate_pass": 30.8691, "duels_won": 4.9662, "total_long_balls": 1.9262, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1551, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.4471, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.422, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.5366, "possession_lost": 7.4233, "dispossessed": 0.234, "duels_lost": 4.006, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.801, "interceptions": 0.6906, "tackles_won": 1.926, "tackles": 3.4765, "clearances": 1.06, "total_contest": 0.8712, "won_contest": 0.234, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 1.7669, "fouls_drawn": 0.3382, "blocks": 0.1691, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1662, "ball_carries": 6.8602, "total_progression": 7.5641, "progressive_carries": 0.1691, "shots_off_target": 0.4559, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0484, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.453, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Vitaly Janelt", "opponent_faced": "Vitaly Janelt", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0968, "creation_factor": 1.1955 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.649, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3905, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8869, "team_expected_assists": 1.0718, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1859, "xa_scale": 1.2086, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0636, "after": 0.0754 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0308, "after": 0.0372 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4304, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0754, "goal_rate": 0.0746, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.646, "rating": 6.8278, "minutes": 77.45, "total_pass": 37.2775, "accurate_pass": 30.8691, "duels_won": 4.9662, "total_long_balls": 1.9262, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1551, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.4471, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.422, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.5366, "possession_lost": 7.4233, "dispossessed": 0.234, "duels_lost": 4.006, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.801, "interceptions": 0.6906, "tackles_won": 1.926, "tackles": 3.4765, "clearances": 1.06, "total_contest": 0.8712, "won_contest": 0.234, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 1.7669, "fouls_drawn": 0.3382, "blocks": 0.1691, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1662, "ball_carries": 6.8602, "total_progression": 7.5641, "progressive_carries": 0.1691, "shots_off_target": 0.4559, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0484, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.453, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Vitaly Janelt", "opponent_faced": "Vitaly Janelt", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0968, "creation_factor": 1.1955, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 75, "fifa_rank": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4304, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0754, "goal_rate": 0.0746, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.646, "rating": 6.8278, "minutes": 77.45, "total_pass": 37.2775, "accurate_pass": 30.8691, "duels_won": 4.9662, "total_long_balls": 1.9262, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1551, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.4471, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.422, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.5366, "possession_lost": 7.4233, "dispossessed": 0.234, "duels_lost": 4.006, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.801, "interceptions": 0.6906, "tackles_won": 1.926, "tackles": 3.4765, "clearances": 1.06, "total_contest": 0.8712, "won_contest": 0.234, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 1.7669, "fouls_drawn": 0.3382, "blocks": 0.1691, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1662, "ball_carries": 6.8602, "total_progression": 7.5641, "progressive_carries": 0.1691, "shots_off_target": 0.4559, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0484, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.453, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Vitaly Janelt", "opponent_faced": "Vitaly Janelt", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0726, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0968, "creation_factor": 1.1955, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.0746, "scorer_weight": 0.0827, "squad_weight_total": 1.6715, "weight_share": 0.0495, "finishing_factor": 1.0968, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3283, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3283, "runner_up": "Diego Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2416 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Diego Gómez", "weight": 0.2416, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2416, "runner_up": "Jack Hinshelwood", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2026 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4304, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0754, "goal_rate": 0.0746, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.646, "rating": 6.8278, "minutes": 77.45, "total_pass": 37.2775, "accurate_pass": 30.8691, "duels_won": 4.9662, "total_long_balls": 1.9262, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1551, "total_own_half_passes": 18.5958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.4471, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.422, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.5366, "possession_lost": 7.4233, "dispossessed": 0.234, "duels_lost": 4.006, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.801, "interceptions": 0.6906, "tackles_won": 1.926, "tackles": 3.4765, "clearances": 1.06, "total_contest": 0.8712, "won_contest": 0.234, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 1.7669, "fouls_drawn": 0.3382, "blocks": 0.1691, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1662, "ball_carries": 6.8602, "total_progression": 7.5641, "progressive_carries": 0.1691, "shots_off_target": 0.4559, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0484, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.453, 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{ "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1261 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.263 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1159 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0432 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0269 } ], "others": -0.0225, "total": 0.8181, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.974051 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.228129 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.119854 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.048642 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.031463 } ], "others_margin": -0.027066 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.691169798374176, 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"others_margin": 0.079208 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.13721713423728943, "model_output": 0.1372, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.246 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0298, "total": 0.1372, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.245979 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.022042 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.021217 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01562 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009391 } ], "others_margin": -0.029782 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7764153480529785, "model_output": 6.7764, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": 0.012, "total": 6.7764, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013052 }, { "name": 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"not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2212, "tackles": 0.5026, "tackles_won": 0.347, "clearances": 0.4564, "aerial_won": 0.3856, "total_shots": 0.0777, "rating": 6.7764, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 7.967, "accurate_pass": 6.3179, "duels_won": 1.7041, "total_long_balls": 0.4465, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1488, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5847, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0856, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3823, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2323, "crosses_total": 0.0052, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8084, "possession_lost": 2.6535, "dispossessed": 0.2686, "duels_lost": 1.2352, "aerial_lost": 0.4971, "total_contest": 0.234, "won_contest": 0.1265, "ball_recovery": 1.0085, "challenges_lost": 0.4971, "fouls": 0.4245, "fouls_drawn": 0.0031, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1251, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9559, "total_progression": 0.8005, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2754, "shots_off_target": 0.0766, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.236, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036.0, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.165, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 54, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024.0, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2259, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 48, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3241, "combined_rank_score": 1184.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 584.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7941, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 1784.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8012, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pascal Struijk", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Afonso Moreira", "ranking": 3236 }, { "player_name": "Largie Ramazani", "ranking": 3237 }, { "player_name": "Zian Flemming", "ranking": 3238 }, { "player_name": "Morata", "ranking": 3239 }, { "player_name": "Tarik Muharemović", "ranking": 3240 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Danilo Cataldi", "ranking": 3242 }, { "player_name": "Håkon Evjen", "ranking": 3243 }, { "player_name": "Jayden Bogle", "ranking": 3244 }, { "player_name": "Jérémie Boga", "ranking": 3245 }, { "player_name": "Jean Butez", "ranking": 3246 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.237 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1316 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0834 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0776 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.058 } ], "others": -0.0653, "total": 1.464, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.064008 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.105884 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.061707 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.054211 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.038689 } ], "others_margin": -0.043665 } }, { 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"margin": 0.042146 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.033136 } ], "others_margin": 0.03895 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.15777109563350677, "model_output": 0.1578, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2373 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0524, "total": 0.1578, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.237303 }, { 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-0.0077 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0098, "total": 0.032, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.711497 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.187383 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.124828 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.087337 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.073151 } ], "others_margin": -0.266645 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04802016541361809, "model_output": 0.048, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0407 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0026 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0018, "total": 0.048, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.563401 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.142872 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.064384 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.050436 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.049951 } ], "others_margin": -0.036346 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.13220547139644623, "model_output": 0.1322, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.145 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0209, "total": 0.1322, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.608795 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.205088 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.071045 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.06718 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.054924 } ], "others_margin": -0.146729 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.30280011892318726, "model_output": 0.3028, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4289 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1936 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0256 } ], "others": -0.0551, "total": 0.3028, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.428931 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.193625 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.048934 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.027805 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.025596 } ], "others_margin": -0.055112 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.706996440887451, "model_output": 6.707, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0838 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0223, "total": 6.707, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.083814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03103 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012929 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008933 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.008513 } ], "others_margin": -0.022214 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0166, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3942, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "assists": 0.0567, "assist_rate": 0.0567, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "goals": 0.0488, "goal_rate": 0.0488, "shots_on_target": 0.1344, "total_shots": 0.3078, "rating": 6.707, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 10.0446, "accurate_pass": 9.0252, "duels_won": 1.9206, "total_long_balls": 0.8481, "accurate_long_balls": 0.453, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1335, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8916, "crosses_total": 0.385, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.017, "possession_lost": 2.4955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6959, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1504, "interceptions": 0.2448, "tackles_won": 1.0126, "tackles": 1.0126, "clearances": 0.5455, "total_contest": 0.7224, "won_contest": 0.3272, "challenges_lost": 0.1504, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5807, "blocks": 0.3007, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4482, "total_progression": 11.1455, "progressive_carries": 0.5088, "shots_off_target": 0.1734 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0166, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0139)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3942, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "assists": 0.0559, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "goals": 0.0514, "goal_rate": 0.0514, "shots_on_target": 0.1393, "total_shots": 0.3103, "rating": 6.707, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 10.0446, "accurate_pass": 9.0252, "duels_won": 1.9206, "total_long_balls": 0.8481, "accurate_long_balls": 0.453, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1335, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8916, "crosses_total": 0.3862, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.017, "possession_lost": 2.4955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6959, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1504, "interceptions": 0.2414, "tackles_won": 1.0018, "tackles": 1.0126, "clearances": 0.5455, "total_contest": 0.7224, "won_contest": 0.3272, "challenges_lost": 0.1504, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5726, "blocks": 0.3007, "big_chances_created": 0.1278, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4482, "total_progression": 11.1455, "progressive_carries": 0.5088, "shots_off_target": 0.1734 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0139, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2111, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0126, "after": 1.0018 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"margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.424312 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.191529 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.060027 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049001 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.02797 } ], "others_margin": 0.096216 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.656900405883789, "model_output": 6.6569, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0768 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0543 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0369, "total": 6.6569, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076767 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054255 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033783 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011769 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010543 } ], "others_margin": -0.036924 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0104, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2537, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "assists": 0.0373, "assist_rate": 0.0373, "expected_goals": 0.0587, "goals": 0.073, "goal_rate": 0.073, "shots_on_target": 0.3063, "total_shots": 0.453, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 11.26, "total_pass": 2.9047, "accurate_pass": 2.6209, "duels_won": 0.4333, "total_long_balls": 0.108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.108, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3271, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2938, "crosses_total": 0.108, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.5007, "possession_lost": 0.743, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4783, "aerial_won": 0.1758, "aerial_lost": 0.2433, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1494, "clearances": 0.4867, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.108, "fouls": 0.127, "fouls_drawn": 0.108, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2433, "xgot": 0.1698, "ball_carries": 1.4223, "total_progression": 10.2919, "progressive_carries": 0.2574, "shots_off_target": 0.1467 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0104, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 11.3 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3805, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "assists": 0.0559, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goals": 0.1095, "goal_rate": 0.1095, "shots_on_target": 0.4595, "total_shots": 0.6795, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 22.6, "total_pass": 4.3571, "accurate_pass": 3.9313, "duels_won": 0.65, "total_long_balls": 0.162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.162, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2543, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9907, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9407, "crosses_total": 0.162, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7511, "possession_lost": 1.1145, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7175, "aerial_won": 0.2637, "aerial_lost": 0.2433, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.7301, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.108, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.162, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3649, "xgot": 0.2547, "ball_carries": 2.1334, "total_progression": 15.4379, "progressive_carries": 0.3861, "shots_off_target": 0.22, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.527, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.6 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.6, "projection_minutes": 11.26, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.527 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3805, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "assists": 0.0559, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goals": 0.1095, "goal_rate": 0.1095, "shots_on_target": 0.4595, "total_shots": 0.6795, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 22.6, "total_pass": 4.3571, "accurate_pass": 3.9313, "duels_won": 0.65, "total_long_balls": 0.162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.162, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2543, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9907, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9407, "crosses_total": 0.162, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7511, "possession_lost": 1.1145, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7175, "aerial_won": 0.2637, "aerial_lost": 0.2433, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.7301, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.108, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.162, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3649, "xgot": 0.2547, "ball_carries": 2.1334, "total_progression": 15.4379, "progressive_carries": 0.3861, "shots_off_target": 0.22, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.527, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.6 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3805, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goal_rate": 0.1095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4595, "total_shots": 0.6795, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 22.6, "total_pass": 4.3571, "accurate_pass": 3.9313, "duels_won": 0.65, "total_long_balls": 0.162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.162, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2543, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9907, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9407, "crosses_total": 0.162, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7511, "possession_lost": 1.1145, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7175, "aerial_won": 0.2637, "aerial_lost": 0.2433, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.7301, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.108, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.162, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3649, "xgot": 0.2547, "ball_carries": 2.1334, "total_progression": 15.4379, "progressive_carries": 0.3861, "shots_off_target": 0.22, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.527, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.6, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.65 (squad xG sum 1.3905, xG scale 1.1859, xA scale 1.2086, team xA 1.07 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3805, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0551, "goal_rate": 0.1095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4595, "total_shots": 0.6795, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 22.6, "total_pass": 4.3571, "accurate_pass": 3.9313, "duels_won": 0.65, "total_long_balls": 0.162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.162, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2543, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9907, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9407, "crosses_total": 0.162, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7511, "possession_lost": 1.1145, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7175, "aerial_won": 0.2637, "aerial_lost": 0.2433, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.7301, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.108, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.162, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3649, "xgot": 0.1592, "ball_carries": 2.1334, "total_progression": 15.4379, "progressive_carries": 0.3861, "shots_off_target": 0.22, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.527, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.6, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.155, "creation_factor": 1.198 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.649, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3905, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8869, "team_expected_assists": 1.0718, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1859, "xa_scale": 1.2086, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.527 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0881, "after": 0.0551 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0384, "after": 0.0245 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.080636 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.028339 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.022067 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015833 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015373 } ], "others_margin": -0.023606 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0657, "goal_rate": 0.066, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1764, "total_shots": 0.7028, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.6035, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5263, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.65 (squad xG sum 1.3905, xG scale 1.1859, xA scale 1.2086, team xA 1.07 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.066, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1764, "total_shots": 0.7028, "expected_assists": 0.052, "key_pass": 0.6035, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0315, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5263, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0026, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.649, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3905, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8869, "team_expected_assists": 1.0718, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1859, "xa_scale": 1.2086, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.629 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0657, "after": 0.049 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0684, "after": 0.052 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"others_margin": 0.00137 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.46391940116882324, "model_output": 0.4639, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.246 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.03 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0138 } ], "others": 0.0033, "total": 0.4639, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.439401 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.077467 }, { "name": 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[ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06909 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016397 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.011237 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009125 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.008244 } ], "others_margin": -0.006972 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.1532, "tackles": 0.5355, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3044, "big_chances_missed": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0453, "offsides": 0.1397, "ball_carries": 3.5364, "total_progression": 17.272, "progressive_carries": 0.6052, "shots_off_target": 0.4404 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0077, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0050)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0686, "goals": 0.0803, "goal_rate": 0.0803, "shots_on_target": 0.2206, "total_shots": 0.6606, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "key_pass": 0.4675, "rating": 6.6912, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 4.8059, "accurate_pass": 2.8727, "duels_won": 1.2701, "total_long_balls": 0.8314, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2061, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2484, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3682, "crosses_total": 0.2467, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.348796 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.144004 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.114454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.070854 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.038012 } ], "others_margin": 0.057075 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6184093356132507, "model_output": 0.6184, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2402 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0536 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0225 } ], "others": 0.0401, "total": 0.6184, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.426569 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.112224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.053218 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.042421 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.039686 } ], "others_margin": 0.067 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.750702381134033, "model_output": 6.7507, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0806 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": -0.0236, "total": 6.7507, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.080636 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.028339 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.022067 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015833 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015373 } ], "others_margin": -0.023606 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0124, quality 0.828)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0682, "goals": 0.0685, "goal_rate": 0.0685, "shots_on_target": 0.183, "total_shots": 0.7291, "expected_assists": 0.071, "key_pass": 0.6261, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 27.84, "total_pass": 9.2311, "accurate_pass": 6.1435, "duels_won": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 0.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1574, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8371, "crosses_total": 2.9513, "crosses_accurate": 0.453, "touches": 20.3206, "possession_lost": 8.1808, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.4068, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.3467, "won_contest": 1.0231, "ball_recovery": 1.1559, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3596, "fouls_drawn": 0.3056, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1775, "tackles_won": 0.9047, "tackles": 1.1921, "clearances": 0.2864, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0438, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.789, "total_progression": 27.5027, "progressive_carries": 1.7155, "shots_off_target": 0.546 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 51000000, "quality_factor": 0.8276, "boost_factor": 1.0124, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.8 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0657, "goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.066, "shots_on_target": 0.1764, "total_shots": 0.7028, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.6035, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5263, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.84, "projection_minutes": 27.84, "minutes_scale": 0.964, "appearance_probability": 0.629 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0657, "goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.066, "shots_on_target": 0.1764, "total_shots": 0.7028, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.6035, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5263, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0657, "goal_rate": 0.066, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1764, "total_shots": 0.7028, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.6035, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5263, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.65 (squad xG sum 1.3905, xG scale 1.1859, xA scale 1.2086, team xA 1.07 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.066, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1764, "total_shots": 0.7028, "expected_assists": 0.052, "key_pass": 0.6035, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0315, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5263, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0026, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.649, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3905, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8869, "team_expected_assists": 1.0718, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1859, "xa_scale": 1.2086, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.629 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0657, "after": 0.049 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0684, "after": 0.052 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.066, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1764, "total_shots": 0.7028, "expected_assists": 0.052, "key_pass": 0.6035, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0315, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5263, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0026, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1459, "fifa_rank": 699.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.066, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1764, "total_shots": 0.7028, "expected_assists": 0.052, "key_pass": 0.6035, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0315, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5263, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0471, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0026, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.066, "scorer_weight": 0.0491, "squad_weight_total": 1.6715, "weight_share": 0.0294, "finishing_factor": 1.0026, "appearance_weight": 0.629, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3283, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3283, "runner_up": "Diego Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2416 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Diego Gómez", "weight": 0.2416, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2416, "runner_up": "Jack Hinshelwood", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2026 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.066, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1764, "total_shots": 0.7028, "expected_assists": 0.052, "key_pass": 0.6035, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 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0.44836586713790894, "model_output": 0.4484, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4243 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1915 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.06 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.049 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.028 } ], "others": 0.0963, "total": 0.4484, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.424312 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.191529 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.060027 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049001 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.02797 } ], "others_margin": 0.096216 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.656900405883789, "model_output": 6.6569, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0768 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0543 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0369, "total": 6.6569, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076767 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054255 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033783 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011769 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010543 } ], "others_margin": -0.036924 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0104, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2537, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "assists": 0.0373, "assist_rate": 0.0373, "expected_goals": 0.0587, "goals": 0.073, "goal_rate": 0.073, "shots_on_target": 0.3063, "total_shots": 0.453, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 11.26, "total_pass": 2.9047, "accurate_pass": 2.6209, "duels_won": 0.4333, "total_long_balls": 0.108, "accurate_long_balls": 0.108, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3271, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2938, "crosses_total": 0.108, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.5007, "possession_lost": 0.743, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4783, "aerial_won": 0.1758, "aerial_lost": 0.2433, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1494, "clearances": 0.4867, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.108, "fouls": 0.127, "fouls_drawn": 0.108, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2433, "xgot": 0.1698, "ball_carries": 1.4223, "total_progression": 10.2919, "progressive_carries": 0.2574, "shots_off_target": 0.1467 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0104, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 11.3 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3805, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "assists": 0.0559, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goals": 0.1095, "goal_rate": 0.1095, "shots_on_target": 0.4595, "total_shots": 0.6795, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 22.6, "total_pass": 4.3571, "accurate_pass": 3.9313, "duels_won": 0.65, "total_long_balls": 0.162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.162, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2543, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9907, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9407, "crosses_total": 0.162, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7511, "possession_lost": 1.1145, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7175, "aerial_won": 0.2637, "aerial_lost": 0.2433, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.7301, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.108, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.162, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3649, "xgot": 0.2547, "ball_carries": 2.1334, "total_progression": 15.4379, "progressive_carries": 0.3861, "shots_off_target": 0.22, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.527, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.6 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.6, "projection_minutes": 11.26, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.527 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3805, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "assists": 0.0559, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goals": 0.1095, "goal_rate": 0.1095, "shots_on_target": 0.4595, "total_shots": 0.6795, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 22.6, "total_pass": 4.3571, "accurate_pass": 3.9313, "duels_won": 0.65, "total_long_balls": 0.162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.162, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2543, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9907, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9407, "crosses_total": 0.162, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7511, "possession_lost": 1.1145, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7175, "aerial_won": 0.2637, "aerial_lost": 0.2433, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.7301, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.108, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.162, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3649, "xgot": 0.2547, "ball_carries": 2.1334, "total_progression": 15.4379, "progressive_carries": 0.3861, "shots_off_target": 0.22, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.527, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.6 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3805, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goal_rate": 0.1095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4595, "total_shots": 0.6795, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 22.6, "total_pass": 4.3571, "accurate_pass": 3.9313, "duels_won": 0.65, "total_long_balls": 0.162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.162, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2543, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9907, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9407, "crosses_total": 0.162, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7511, "possession_lost": 1.1145, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7175, "aerial_won": 0.2637, "aerial_lost": 0.2433, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.7301, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.108, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.162, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3649, "xgot": 0.2547, "ball_carries": 2.1334, "total_progression": 15.4379, "progressive_carries": 0.3861, "shots_off_target": 0.22, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.527, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.6, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.65 (squad xG sum 1.3905, xG scale 1.1859, xA scale 1.2086, team xA 1.07 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3805, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0551, "goal_rate": 0.1095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4595, "total_shots": 0.6795, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 22.6, "total_pass": 4.3571, "accurate_pass": 3.9313, "duels_won": 0.65, "total_long_balls": 0.162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.162, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2543, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9907, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9407, "crosses_total": 0.162, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7511, "possession_lost": 1.1145, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7175, "aerial_won": 0.2637, "aerial_lost": 0.2433, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.7301, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.108, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.162, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3649, "xgot": 0.1592, "ball_carries": 2.1334, "total_progression": 15.4379, "progressive_carries": 0.3861, "shots_off_target": 0.22, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.527, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.6, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.155, "creation_factor": 1.198 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.649, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3905, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8869, "team_expected_assists": 1.0718, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1859, "xa_scale": 1.2086, "opponent_lambda": 1.472, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.527 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0881, "after": 0.0551 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0384, "after": 0.0245 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3805, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0551, "goal_rate": 0.1095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4595, "total_shots": 0.6795, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 22.6, "total_pass": 4.3571, "accurate_pass": 3.9313, "duels_won": 0.65, "total_long_balls": 0.162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.162, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2543, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9907, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9407, "crosses_total": 0.162, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7511, "possession_lost": 1.1145, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7175, "aerial_won": 0.2637, "aerial_lost": 0.2433, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.7301, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.108, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.162, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3649, "xgot": 0.1592, "ball_carries": 2.1334, "total_progression": 15.4379, "progressive_carries": 0.3861, "shots_off_target": 0.22, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.527, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.6, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.155, "creation_factor": 1.198, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3079, "fifa_rank": 1420.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3805, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0551, "goal_rate": 0.1095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4595, "total_shots": 0.6795, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 22.6, "total_pass": 4.3571, "accurate_pass": 3.9313, "duels_won": 0.65, "total_long_balls": 0.162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.162, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2543, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9907, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9407, "crosses_total": 0.162, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7511, "possession_lost": 1.1145, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7175, "aerial_won": 0.2637, "aerial_lost": 0.2433, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.7301, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.108, "fouls": 0.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.162, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3649, "xgot": 0.1592, "ball_carries": 2.1334, "total_progression": 15.4379, "progressive_carries": 0.3861, "shots_off_target": 0.22, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.527, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.6, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0523, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.155, "creation_factor": 1.198, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.1095, "scorer_weight": 0.0636, "squad_weight_total": 1.6715, "weight_share": 0.0381, "finishing_factor": 1.155, "appearance_weight": 0.527, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3283, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3283, "runner_up": "Diego Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2416 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Diego Gómez", "weight": 0.2416, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2416, "runner_up": "Jack Hinshelwood", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2026 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3805, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0551, "goal_rate": 0.1095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4595, "total_shots": 0.6795, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 22.6, "total_pass": 4.3571, "accurate_pass": 3.9313, "duels_won": 0.65, "total_long_balls": 0.162, "accurate_long_balls": 0.162, 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"matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-31", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-25", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1084, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-18", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0783, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": 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"totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0122 } ], "others": 0.0042, "total": -0.0981, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.034109 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017842 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.017483 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.016849 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.012181 } ], "others_margin": 0.004327 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8688, "goals_prevented": -0.0987, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.4002, "accurate_pass": 23.6181, "total_long_balls": 21.6473, "accurate_long_balls": 8.1456, "touches": 47.3616, "clearances": 1.1877, "ball_recovery": 9.0368, "high_claims": 0.5118, "punches": 0.7689, "aerial_won": 0.217, "sweeper_actions": 0.6449, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6449, "saves_inside_box": 1.6771, "possession_lost": 14.1293, "duels_won": 0.3989, "duels_lost": 0.0456, "total_contest": 0.0229, "won_contest": 0.0229, "fouls": 0.0341, "fouls_drawn": 0.1605, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0724, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5611 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0085)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8657, "goals_prevented": -0.0987, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.4002, "accurate_pass": 23.6181, "total_long_balls": 21.6473, "accurate_long_balls": 8.1456, "touches": 47.3616, "clearances": 1.1877, "ball_recovery": 9.0368, "high_claims": 0.5118, "punches": 0.7689, "aerial_won": 0.217, "sweeper_actions": 0.6449, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6449, "saves_inside_box": 1.6771, "possession_lost": 14.1293, "duels_won": 0.3989, "duels_lost": 0.0456, "total_contest": 0.0229, "won_contest": 0.0229, "fouls": 0.0338, "fouls_drawn": 0.1591, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0724, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5611 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0085, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8657, "goals_prevented": -0.0987, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.4002, "accurate_pass": 23.6181, "total_long_balls": 21.6473, "accurate_long_balls": 8.1456, "touches": 47.3616, "clearances": 1.1877, "ball_recovery": 9.0368, "high_claims": 0.5118, "punches": 0.7689, "aerial_won": 0.217, "sweeper_actions": 0.6449, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6449, "saves_inside_box": 1.6771, "possession_lost": 14.1293, "duels_won": 0.3989, "duels_lost": 0.0456, "total_contest": 0.0229, "won_contest": 0.0229, "fouls": 0.0338, "fouls_drawn": 0.1591, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0724, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5611 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8657, "goals_prevented": -0.0987, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.4002, "accurate_pass": 23.6181, "total_long_balls": 21.6473, "accurate_long_balls": 8.1456, "touches": 47.3616, "clearances": 1.1877, "ball_recovery": 9.0368, "high_claims": 0.5118, "punches": 0.7689, "aerial_won": 0.217, "sweeper_actions": 0.6449, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6449, "saves_inside_box": 1.6771, "possession_lost": 14.1293, "duels_won": 0.3989, "duels_lost": 0.0456, "total_contest": 0.0229, "won_contest": 0.0229, "fouls": 0.0338, "fouls_drawn": 0.1591, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0724, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5611, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8777, "shots_faced": 17.8, "expected_saves": 4.35, "high_pressure_saves": 1.5, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Jack Hinshelwood", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Jack Hinshelwood", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.8777 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8657, "goals_prevented": -0.0987, "rating": 6.7876, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.4002, "accurate_pass": 23.6181, "total_long_balls": 21.6473, "accurate_long_balls": 8.1456, "touches": 47.3616, "clearances": 1.1877, "ball_recovery": 9.0368, "high_claims": 0.5118, "punches": 0.7689, "aerial_won": 0.217, "sweeper_actions": 0.6449, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6449, "saves_inside_box": 1.6771, "possession_lost": 14.1293, "duels_won": 0.3989, "duels_lost": 0.0456, "total_contest": 0.0229, "won_contest": 0.0229, "fouls": 0.0338, "fouls_drawn": 0.1591, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0724, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5611, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8777, "shots_faced": 15.7, "expected_saves": 3.85, "high_pressure_saves": 1.32, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Jack Hinshelwood", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", 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match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2302 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0186 } ], "others": -0.0104, "total": 0.8333, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.230232 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049014 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.043159 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.021509 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.018647 } ], "others_margin": -0.0105 } }, { "target": "rating", 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"others_margin": -0.0343 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0061, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7783, "tackles": 1.1546, "tackles_won": 0.7417, "clearances": 2.1509, "aerial_won": 0.6309, "total_shots": 0.8384, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 81.7, "total_pass": 28.3885, "accurate_pass": 21.9577, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 4.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6361, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.58, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3777, "crosses_total": 2.9299, "crosses_accurate": 0.9059, "touches": 47.2979, "possession_lost": 13.4031, "dispossessed": 0.416, "duels_lost": 4.597, "aerial_lost": 1.1449, "total_contest": 2.2559, "won_contest": 0.6274, "ball_recovery": 4.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.5428, "fouls": 0.8647, "fouls_drawn": 1.2226, "blocks": 0.1632, "goals": 0.1694, "goal_rate": 0.1694, "assists": 0.0799, "assist_rate": 0.0799, "expected_goals": 0.1063, "expected_assists": 0.0832, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "big_chances_created": 0.0999, "xgot": 0.1279, "ball_carries": 12.3524, "total_progression": 73.1214, "progressive_carries": 2.283, "key_pass": 1.0072, "shots_off_target": 0.5411 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0061, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0087)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7794, "tackles": 1.1546, "tackles_won": 0.7431, "clearances": 2.1509, "aerial_won": 0.6309, "total_shots": 0.8432, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 81.7, "total_pass": 28.3885, "accurate_pass": 21.9577, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 4.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6361, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.58, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3777, "crosses_total": 2.9438, "crosses_accurate": 0.9059, "touches": 47.2979, "possession_lost": 13.4031, "dispossessed": 0.416, "duels_lost": 4.597, "aerial_lost": 1.1449, "total_contest": 2.2559, "won_contest": 0.6274, "ball_recovery": 4.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.5428, "fouls": 0.8651, "fouls_drawn": 1.212, "blocks": 0.1632, "goals": 0.1719, "goal_rate": 0.1719, "assists": 0.0831, "assist_rate": 0.0831, "expected_goals": 0.1063, "expected_assists": 0.0832, "shots_on_target": 0.2987, "big_chances_created": 0.0999, "xgot": 0.1279, "ball_carries": 12.3524, "total_progression": 73.1214, "progressive_carries": 2.283, "key_pass": 1.0072, "shots_off_target": 0.5411 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0087, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9078, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.9299, "after": 2.9438 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2226, "after": 1.212 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7794, "tackles": 1.1546, "tackles_won": 0.7431, "clearances": 2.1509, "aerial_won": 0.6309, "total_shots": 0.8432, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 81.7, "total_pass": 28.3885, "accurate_pass": 21.9577, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 4.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6361, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.58, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3777, "crosses_total": 2.9438, "crosses_accurate": 0.9059, "touches": 47.2979, "possession_lost": 13.4031, "dispossessed": 0.416, "duels_lost": 4.597, "aerial_lost": 1.1449, "total_contest": 2.2559, "won_contest": 0.6274, "ball_recovery": 4.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.5428, "fouls": 0.8651, "fouls_drawn": 1.212, "blocks": 0.1632, "goals": 0.1719, "goal_rate": 0.1719, "assists": 0.0831, "assist_rate": 0.0831, "expected_goals": 0.1063, "expected_assists": 0.0832, "shots_on_target": 0.2987, "big_chances_created": 0.0999, "xgot": 0.1279, "ball_carries": 12.3524, "total_progression": 73.1214, "progressive_carries": 2.283, "key_pass": 1.0072, "shots_off_target": 0.5411 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7794, "tackles": 1.1546, "tackles_won": 0.7431, "clearances": 2.1509, "aerial_won": 0.6309, "total_shots": 0.8432, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 81.7, "total_pass": 28.3885, "accurate_pass": 21.9577, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 4.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6361, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.58, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3777, "crosses_total": 2.9438, "crosses_accurate": 0.9059, "touches": 47.2979, "possession_lost": 13.4031, "dispossessed": 0.416, "duels_lost": 4.597, "aerial_lost": 1.1449, "total_contest": 2.2559, "won_contest": 0.6274, "ball_recovery": 4.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.5428, "fouls": 0.8651, "fouls_drawn": 1.212, "blocks": 0.1632, "goals": 0.1719, "goal_rate": 0.1719, "assists": 0.0831, "assist_rate": 0.0831, "expected_goals": 0.1063, "expected_assists": 0.0832, "shots_on_target": 0.2987, "big_chances_created": 0.0999, "xgot": 0.1279, "ball_carries": 12.3524, "total_progression": 73.1214, "progressive_carries": 2.283, "key_pass": 1.0072, "shots_off_target": 0.5411, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7794, "tackles": 1.1546, "tackles_won": 0.7431, "clearances": 2.1509, "aerial_won": 0.6309, "total_shots": 0.8432, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 81.7, "total_pass": 28.3885, "accurate_pass": 21.9577, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 4.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6361, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.58, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3777, "crosses_total": 2.9438, "crosses_accurate": 0.9059, "touches": 47.2979, "possession_lost": 13.4031, "dispossessed": 0.416, "duels_lost": 4.597, "aerial_lost": 1.1449, "total_contest": 2.2559, "won_contest": 0.6274, "ball_recovery": 4.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.5428, "fouls": 0.8651, "fouls_drawn": 1.212, "blocks": 0.1632, "goal_rate": 0.1719, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1063, "expected_assists": 0.0832, "shots_on_target": 0.2987, "big_chances_created": 0.0999, "xgot": 0.1279, "ball_carries": 12.3524, "total_progression": 73.1214, "progressive_carries": 2.283, "key_pass": 1.0072, "shots_off_target": 0.5411, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.47 (squad xG sum 1.0237, xG scale 1.4379, xA scale 1.4069, team xA 1.18 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7794, "tackles": 1.1546, "tackles_won": 0.7431, "clearances": 2.1509, "aerial_won": 0.6309, "total_shots": 0.8432, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 81.7, "total_pass": 28.3885, "accurate_pass": 21.9577, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 4.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6361, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.58, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3777, "crosses_total": 2.9438, "crosses_accurate": 0.9059, "touches": 47.2979, "possession_lost": 13.4031, "dispossessed": 0.416, "duels_lost": 4.597, "aerial_lost": 1.1449, "total_contest": 2.2559, "won_contest": 0.6274, "ball_recovery": 4.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.5428, "fouls": 0.8651, "fouls_drawn": 1.212, "blocks": 0.1632, "goal_rate": 0.1719, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1528, "expected_assists": 0.1171, "shots_on_target": 0.2987, "big_chances_created": 0.0999, "xgot": 0.1839, "ball_carries": 12.3524, "total_progression": 73.1214, "progressive_carries": 2.283, "key_pass": 1.0072, "shots_off_target": 0.5411, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9992 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.472, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0237, "squad_xa_sum": 0.837, "team_expected_assists": 1.1776, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4379, "xa_scale": 1.4069, "opponent_lambda": 1.649, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1063, "after": 0.1528 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0832, "after": 0.1171 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7794, "tackles": 1.1546, "tackles_won": 0.7431, "clearances": 2.1509, "aerial_won": 0.6309, "total_shots": 0.8432, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 81.7, "total_pass": 28.3885, "accurate_pass": 21.9577, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 4.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6361, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.58, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3777, "crosses_total": 2.9438, "crosses_accurate": 0.9059, "touches": 47.2979, "possession_lost": 13.4031, "dispossessed": 0.416, "duels_lost": 4.597, "aerial_lost": 1.1449, "total_contest": 2.2559, "won_contest": 0.6274, "ball_recovery": 4.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.5428, "fouls": 0.8651, "fouls_drawn": 1.212, "blocks": 0.1632, "goal_rate": 0.1719, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1528, "expected_assists": 0.1171, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7794, "tackles": 1.1546, "tackles_won": 0.7431, "clearances": 2.1509, "aerial_won": 0.6309, "total_shots": 0.8432, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 81.7, "total_pass": 28.3885, "accurate_pass": 21.9577, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 4.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6361, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.58, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3777, "crosses_total": 2.9438, "crosses_accurate": 0.9059, "touches": 47.2979, "possession_lost": 13.4031, "dispossessed": 0.416, "duels_lost": 4.597, "aerial_lost": 1.1449, "total_contest": 2.2559, "won_contest": 0.6274, "ball_recovery": 4.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.5428, "fouls": 0.8651, "fouls_drawn": 1.212, "blocks": 0.1632, "goal_rate": 0.1719, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1528, "expected_assists": 0.1171, "shots_on_target": 0.2987, "big_chances_created": 0.0999, "xgot": 0.1839, "ball_carries": 12.3524, "total_progression": 73.1214, "progressive_carries": 2.283, "key_pass": 1.0072, "shots_off_target": 0.5411, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1417, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9992, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1417, "goal_rate": 0.1719, "scorer_weight": 0.191, "squad_weight_total": 1.6042, "weight_share": 0.1191, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.5187, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5187, "runner_up": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.191 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7794, "tackles": 1.1546, "tackles_won": 0.7431, "clearances": 2.1509, "aerial_won": 0.6309, "total_shots": 0.8432, "rating": 6.7243, "minutes": 81.7, "total_pass": 28.3885, "accurate_pass": 21.9577, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 4.1012, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6361, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.58, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3777, "crosses_total": 2.9438, "crosses_accurate": 0.9059, "touches": 47.2979, "possession_lost": 13.4031, "dispossessed": 0.416, "duels_lost": 4.597, "aerial_lost": 1.1449, "total_contest": 2.2559, "won_contest": 0.6274, "ball_recovery": 4.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.5428, "fouls": 0.8651, "fouls_drawn": 1.212, "blocks": 0.1632, "goal_rate": 0.1719, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0831, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1528, "expected_assists": 0.1171, "shots_on_target": 0.2987, "big_chances_created": 0.0999, "xgot": 0.1839, "ball_carries": 12.3524, "total_progression": 73.1214, "progressive_carries": 2.283, "key_pass": 1.0072, "shots_off_target": 0.5411, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1417, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1105, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9992, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1105, "assist_rate": 0.0831, "provider_weight": 0.117, "squad_weight_total": 1.0952, "weight_share": 0.1068, "creation_factor": 0.9992, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "weight": 0.1639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1639, "runner_up": "Mathias Jensen", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Igor Thiago" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nathan Collins": { "player_id": 958916, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 193, "market_value": 29000000, 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"totalShots", "margin": 0.241908 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049832 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026098 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.020768 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.020473 } ], "others_margin": 0.05794 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.762797832489014, "model_output": 6.7628, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": 0.0125, "total": 6.7628, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026099 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016919 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012101 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.009424 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008154 } ], "others_margin": 0.012513 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0132, "tackles": 1.1334, "tackles_won": 0.6923, "clearances": 5.4855, "aerial_won": 2.2533, "total_shots": 0.8522, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 79.61, "total_pass": 46.4628, "accurate_pass": 38.5826, "duels_won": 4.1117, "total_long_balls": 6.5987, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8582, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6123, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9702, "crosses_total": 0.0069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 59.8468, "possession_lost": 8.7167, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.2293, "aerial_lost": 1.9904, "total_contest": 0.3502, "won_contest": 0.3284, "ball_recovery": 4.1725, "challenges_lost": 0.5149, "fouls": 0.5894, "fouls_drawn": 0.539, "blocks": 0.7326, "goals": 0.0125, "goal_rate": 0.0125, "assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0245, "expected_goals": 0.0956, "expected_assists": 0.0466, "shots_on_target": 0.1842, "big_chances_created": 0.1258, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 13.7575, "total_progression": 56.1331, "progressive_carries": 1.0072, "key_pass": 0.4217, "shots_off_target": 0.668 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0072, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0119, "tackles": 1.1334, "tackles_won": 0.6942, "clearances": 5.4855, "aerial_won": 2.2533, "total_shots": 0.8659, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 79.61, "total_pass": 46.4628, "accurate_pass": 38.5826, "duels_won": 4.1117, "total_long_balls": 6.5987, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8582, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6123, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9702, "crosses_total": 0.0068, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 59.8468, "possession_lost": 8.7167, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.2293, "aerial_lost": 1.9904, "total_contest": 0.3502, "won_contest": 0.3284, "ball_recovery": 4.1725, "challenges_lost": 0.5149, "fouls": 0.5924, "fouls_drawn": 0.5425, "blocks": 0.7326, "goals": 0.0124, "goal_rate": 0.0124, "assists": 0.0243, "assist_rate": 0.0243, "expected_goals": 0.0956, "expected_assists": 0.0466, "shots_on_target": 0.1868, "big_chances_created": 0.1258, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 13.7575, "total_progression": 56.1331, "progressive_carries": 1.0072, "key_pass": 0.4217, "shots_off_target": 0.668 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8846, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8522, "after": 0.8659 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0119, "tackles": 1.1334, "tackles_won": 0.6942, "clearances": 5.4855, "aerial_won": 2.2533, "total_shots": 0.8659, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 79.61, "total_pass": 46.4628, "accurate_pass": 38.5826, "duels_won": 4.1117, "total_long_balls": 6.5987, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8582, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6123, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9702, "crosses_total": 0.0068, "crosses_accurate": 0.0068, "touches": 59.8468, "possession_lost": 8.7167, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.2293, "aerial_lost": 1.9904, "total_contest": 0.3502, "won_contest": 0.3284, "ball_recovery": 4.1725, "challenges_lost": 0.5149, "fouls": 0.5924, "fouls_drawn": 0.5425, "blocks": 0.7326, "goals": 0.0124, "goal_rate": 0.0124, "assists": 0.0243, "assist_rate": 0.0243, "expected_goals": 0.0956, "expected_assists": 0.0466, "shots_on_target": 0.1868, "big_chances_created": 0.1258, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 13.7575, "total_progression": 56.1331, "progressive_carries": 1.0072, "key_pass": 0.4217, "shots_off_target": 0.668 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0119, "tackles": 1.1334, "tackles_won": 0.6942, "clearances": 5.4855, "aerial_won": 2.2533, "total_shots": 0.8659, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 79.61, "total_pass": 46.4628, "accurate_pass": 38.5826, "duels_won": 4.1117, "total_long_balls": 6.5987, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8582, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6123, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9702, "crosses_total": 0.0068, "crosses_accurate": 0.0068, "touches": 59.8468, 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"params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0119, "tackles": 1.1334, "tackles_won": 0.6942, "clearances": 5.4855, "aerial_won": 2.2533, "total_shots": 0.8659, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 79.61, "total_pass": 46.4628, "accurate_pass": 38.5826, "duels_won": 4.1117, "total_long_balls": 6.5987, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8582, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6123, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9702, "crosses_total": 0.0068, "crosses_accurate": 0.0068, "touches": 59.8468, "possession_lost": 8.7167, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.2293, "aerial_lost": 1.9904, "total_contest": 0.3502, "won_contest": 0.3284, "ball_recovery": 4.1725, "challenges_lost": 0.5149, "fouls": 0.5924, "fouls_drawn": 0.5425, "blocks": 0.7326, "goal_rate": 0.0124, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0243, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0956, "expected_assists": 0.0466, "shots_on_target": 0.1868, "big_chances_created": 0.1258, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 13.7575, "total_progression": 56.1331, "progressive_carries": 1.0072, "key_pass": 0.4217, "shots_off_target": 0.668, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.47 (squad xG sum 1.0237, xG scale 1.4379, xA scale 1.4069, team xA 1.18 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0119, "tackles": 1.1334, "tackles_won": 0.6942, "clearances": 5.4855, "aerial_won": 2.2533, "total_shots": 0.8659, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 79.61, "total_pass": 46.4628, "accurate_pass": 38.5826, "duels_won": 4.1117, "total_long_balls": 6.5987, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8582, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6123, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9702, "crosses_total": 0.0068, "crosses_accurate": 0.0068, "touches": 59.8468, "possession_lost": 8.7167, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.2293, "aerial_lost": 1.9904, "total_contest": 0.3502, "won_contest": 0.3284, "ball_recovery": 4.1725, "challenges_lost": 0.5149, "fouls": 0.5924, "fouls_drawn": 0.5425, "blocks": 0.7326, "goal_rate": 0.0124, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0243, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1375, "expected_assists": 0.0656, "shots_on_target": 0.1868, "big_chances_created": 0.1258, "xgot": 0.0257, "ball_carries": 13.7575, "total_progression": 56.1331, "progressive_carries": 1.0072, "key_pass": 0.4217, "shots_off_target": 0.668, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.472, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0237, "squad_xa_sum": 0.837, "team_expected_assists": 1.1776, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4379, "xa_scale": 1.4069, "opponent_lambda": 1.649, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0956, "after": 0.1375 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0466, "after": 0.0656 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0119, "tackles": 1.1334, "tackles_won": 0.6942, "clearances": 5.4855, "aerial_won": 2.2533, "total_shots": 0.8659, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 79.61, "total_pass": 46.4628, "accurate_pass": 38.5826, "duels_won": 4.1117, "total_long_balls": 6.5987, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8582, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6123, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9702, "crosses_total": 0.0068, "crosses_accurate": 0.0068, "touches": 59.8468, "possession_lost": 8.7167, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.2293, "aerial_lost": 1.9904, "total_contest": 0.3502, "won_contest": 0.3284, "ball_recovery": 4.1725, "challenges_lost": 0.5149, "fouls": 0.5924, "fouls_drawn": 0.5425, "blocks": 0.7326, "goal_rate": 0.0124, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0243, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1375, "expected_assists": 0.0656, 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"global_player_rank": 1159, "fifa_rank": 872.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0119, "tackles": 1.1334, "tackles_won": 0.6942, "clearances": 5.4855, "aerial_won": 2.2533, "total_shots": 0.8659, "rating": 6.7628, "minutes": 79.61, "total_pass": 46.4628, "accurate_pass": 38.5826, "duels_won": 4.1117, "total_long_balls": 6.5987, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8582, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6123, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9702, "crosses_total": 0.0068, "crosses_accurate": 0.0068, "touches": 59.8468, "possession_lost": 8.7167, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.2293, "aerial_lost": 1.9904, "total_contest": 0.3502, "won_contest": 0.3284, "ball_recovery": 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"others": -0.1499, "total": 0.9001, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.18792 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109568 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.074869 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.06827 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.044237 } ], "others_margin": -0.154088 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5650622844696045, "model_output": 0.5651, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0603 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0080, quality 0.775)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1922, "tackles": 1.7367, "tackles_won": 1.0546, "clearances": 2.3419, "aerial_won": 0.9073, "total_shots": 0.5697, "rating": 6.7367, "minutes": 84.71, "total_pass": 25.8669, "accurate_pass": 20.6328, "duels_won": 4.4276, "total_long_balls": 2.0231, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8635, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6183, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0154, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2485, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6172, "crosses_total": 1.5775, "crosses_accurate": 0.4056, "touches": 50.762, "possession_lost": 13.6156, "dispossessed": 0.5742, "duels_lost": 3.9659, "aerial_lost": 0.7195, "total_contest": 2.1793, "won_contest": 1.2772, "ball_recovery": 3.9506, "challenges_lost": 0.8698, "fouls": 0.9308, "fouls_drawn": 0.9025, "blocks": 0.4799, "goals": 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1.5814, "crosses_accurate": 0.4056, "touches": 50.762, "possession_lost": 13.6156, "dispossessed": 0.5742, "duels_lost": 3.9659, "aerial_lost": 0.7195, "total_contest": 2.1793, "won_contest": 1.2772, "ball_recovery": 3.9506, "challenges_lost": 0.8698, "fouls": 0.9317, "fouls_drawn": 0.9116, "blocks": 0.4799, "goals": 0.0659, "goal_rate": 0.0659, "assists": 0.0154, "assist_rate": 0.0154, "expected_goals": 0.0485, "expected_assists": 0.0679, "shots_on_target": 0.0854, "big_chances_created": 0.0213, "xgot": 0.064, "ball_carries": 10.7656, "total_progression": 54.1565, "progressive_carries": 1.3692, "key_pass": 1.0121, "shots_off_target": 0.4877, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545, "opponent_faced": "Diego Gómez", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.177228 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.146128 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.145753 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.083651 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.049027 } ], "others_margin": -0.041461 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.15297333896160126, "model_output": 0.153, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0814 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0265, "total": 0.153, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.295982 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.200565 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128239 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.125507 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.078308 } ], "others_margin": -0.159281 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5832445621490479, "model_output": 0.5832, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1234 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0636 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0188 } ], "others": -0.1303, "total": 0.5832, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.261377 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123423 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063636 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.05096 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.018794 } ], "others_margin": -0.130348 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.961802959442139, "model_output": 6.9618, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0877 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0482 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0647, "total": 6.9618, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.087674 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.048217 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033222 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013187 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.013171 } ], "others_margin": -0.064696 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0054, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6794, "expected_assists": 0.0744, "assists": 0.0612, "assist_rate": 0.0612, "expected_goals": 0.0475, "goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "shots_on_target": 0.1538, "total_shots": 0.5864, "rating": 6.9618, "minutes": 87.38, "total_pass": 42.1228, "accurate_pass": 35.3523, "duels_won": 3.9842, "total_long_balls": 3.2179, "accurate_long_balls": 1.737, "total_own_half_passes": 20.2005, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5536, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9222, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7986, "crosses_total": 2.1767, "crosses_accurate": 0.8079, "touches": 58.4441, "possession_lost": 9.767, "dispossessed": 0.3471, "duels_lost": 3.9707, "aerial_won": 0.7577, "aerial_lost": 0.4906, "interceptions": 2.891, "tackles_won": 1.3832, "tackles": 2.4557, "clearances": 1.9044, "total_contest": 0.5112, "won_contest": 0.2826, "challenges_lost": 1.6374, "fouls": 1.3028, "fouls_drawn": 0.5032, "blocks": 0.644, "big_chances_created": 0.0833, "big_chances_missed": 0.0082, "xgot": 0.0872, "ball_carries": 10.3908, "total_progression": 36.5612, "progressive_carries": 0.6009, "shots_off_target": 0.4326 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0054, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0114)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6794, "expected_assists": 0.0744, "assists": 0.0605, "assist_rate": 0.0605, "expected_goals": 0.0475, "goals": 0.0941, "goal_rate": 0.0941, "shots_on_target": 0.1576, "total_shots": 0.5908, "rating": 6.9618, "minutes": 87.38, "total_pass": 42.1228, "accurate_pass": 35.3523, "duels_won": 3.9842, "total_long_balls": 3.2179, "accurate_long_balls": 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"Clarismario", "ranking": 1024 }, { "player_name": "Milan Obradović", "ranking": 1025 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Carreras", "ranking": 1026 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Azizbek Pirmukhamedov", "ranking": 1028 }, { "player_name": "Jonas Urbig", "ranking": 1029 }, { "player_name": "James Donachie", "ranking": 1030 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Campos", "ranking": 1031 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Romero", "ranking": 1032 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 9, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", 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{ "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0207, "total": 0.0462, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.468924, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.246645 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.149329 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134925 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.092894 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.066467 } ], "others_margin": -0.37154 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.052513882517814636, "model_output": 0.0525, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0445 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0324 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0293 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0152, "total": 0.0525, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463472, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.100556 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.090384 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.083061 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.069073 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.051166 } ], "others_margin": -0.255087 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05573508143424988, "model_output": 0.0557, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0756 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0918, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0041 } ], "others": -0.0154, "total": 0.0557, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.130304 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116604 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.096709 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.08984 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.056296 } ], "others_margin": -0.242638 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.061356931924819946, "model_output": 0.0614, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0061 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 0.0614, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.162168 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.133115 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117698 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.080769 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.080747 } ], "others_margin": -0.255053 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.20069590210914612, "model_output": 0.2007, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0497 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0444 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0439 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0566, "total": 0.2007, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.169832 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.153186 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.151318 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.082498 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039319 } ], "others_margin": -0.248734 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8343197703361511, "model_output": 0.8343, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1293 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0959 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0494 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0422 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0341 } ], "others": -0.1427, "total": 0.8343, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12931 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.095934 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049374 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.042206 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.034091 } ], "others_margin": -0.142732 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.879124164581299, "model_output": 6.8791, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.037 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0378, "total": 6.8791, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.050381 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03698 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019434 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015734 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.007181 } ], "others_margin": -0.037655 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0338, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6012, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "assists": 0.0543, "assist_rate": 0.0543, "expected_goals": 0.0576, "goals": 0.0634, "goal_rate": 0.0634, "shots_on_target": 0.2075, "total_shots": 0.8625, "rating": 6.8791, "minutes": 77.83, "total_pass": 43.9051, "accurate_pass": 35.8101, "duels_won": 6.9921, "total_long_balls": 4.157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8259, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9474, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6216, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.9576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1884, "crosses_total": 0.2405, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.2129, "possession_lost": 11.5714, "dispossessed": 1.1728, "duels_lost": 3.839, "aerial_won": 1.4109, "aerial_lost": 0.4128, "interceptions": 1.9338, "tackles_won": 1.7547, "tackles": 3.4917, "clearances": 1.4147, "total_contest": 1.7765, "won_contest": 1.3561, "challenges_lost": 0.6442, "fouls": 1.1889, "fouls_drawn": 0.7333, "blocks": 0.8395, "big_chances_created": 0.1105, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0198, "ball_carries": 12.5638, "total_progression": 45.343, "progressive_carries": 0.6002, "shots_off_target": 0.655 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 49000000, "quality_factor": 0.8206, "boost_factor": 1.0338, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0279)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6012, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "assists": 0.0662, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "expected_goals": 0.0576, "goals": 0.0616, "goal_rate": 0.0616, "shots_on_target": 0.215, "total_shots": 0.891, "rating": 6.8791, "minutes": 77.83, "total_pass": 43.9051, "accurate_pass": 35.8101, "duels_won": 6.9921, "total_long_balls": 4.157, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8259, 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"items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1552 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0571 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.045 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0285 } ], "others": -0.0005, "total": 1.2096, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.155225 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057105 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.045037 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.029366 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.028454 } ], "others_margin": -0.000469 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.022620677947998, "model_output": 7.0226, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0067, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6201, "expected_assists": 0.1427, "assists": 0.1078, "assist_rate": 0.1078, "expected_goals": 0.0919, "goals": 0.1002, "goal_rate": 0.1002, "shots_on_target": 0.3957, "total_shots": 1.2177, "rating": 7.0226, "minutes": 80.48, "total_pass": 41.3414, "accurate_pass": 32.0185, "duels_won": 4.6788, "total_long_balls": 4.6293, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4075, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3521, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.6863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6664, "crosses_total": 3.3114, "crosses_accurate": 0.6334, "touches": 57.7758, "possession_lost": 16.6559, "dispossessed": 1.2278, "duels_lost": 5.153, "aerial_won": 0.8051, "aerial_lost": 0.5431, "interceptions": 0.8653, "tackles_won": 1.2444, "tackles": 2.1478, "clearances": 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"description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6201, "expected_assists": 0.1427, "assist_rate": 0.1073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goal_rate": 0.0929, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3705, "total_shots": 1.1362, "rating": 7.0226, "minutes": 80.48, "total_pass": 41.3414, "accurate_pass": 32.0185, "duels_won": 4.6788, "total_long_balls": 4.6293, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4075, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3521, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.6863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6664, "crosses_total": 3.3311, "crosses_accurate": 0.6334, "touches": 57.7758, "possession_lost": 16.6559, "dispossessed": 1.2278, "duels_lost": 5.153, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5431, "interceptions": 0.8616, "tackles_won": 1.2433, "tackles": 2.1478, "clearances": 0.812, "total_contest": 1.8586, 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lambda 1.47 (squad xG sum 1.0237, xG scale 1.4379, xA scale 1.4069, team xA 1.18 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6201, "expected_assists": 0.2008, "assist_rate": 0.1073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1229, "goal_rate": 0.0929, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3705, "total_shots": 1.1362, "rating": 7.0226, "minutes": 80.48, "total_pass": 41.3414, "accurate_pass": 32.0185, "duels_won": 4.6788, "total_long_balls": 4.6293, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4075, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3521, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.6863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6664, "crosses_total": 3.3311, "crosses_accurate": 0.6334, "touches": 57.7758, "possession_lost": 16.6559, "dispossessed": 1.2278, "duels_lost": 5.153, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5431, "interceptions": 0.8616, "tackles_won": 1.2433, "tackles": 2.1478, "clearances": 0.812, "total_contest": 1.8586, "won_contest": 0.8218, "challenges_lost": 1.8881, "fouls": 0.4879, "fouls_drawn": 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0.0233, "total": 0.7062, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.640773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.280189 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.080332 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.055015 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.033792 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.029385 } ], "others_margin": 0.033622 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.028181314468384, "model_output": 2.0282, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0526 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0309 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0307 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3756, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.471 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1045 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0455 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0422 }, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1674 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0547 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0384 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0298 } ], "others": 0.0182, "total": 0.7925, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.216735 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.065757 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.049293 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.048922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.037719 } ], "others_margin": 0.023127 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.960933208465576, "model_output": 6.9609, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0528 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0219 } ], "others": 0.0341, "total": 6.9609, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052775 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.031832 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.025083 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.021865 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.021865 } ], "others_margin": 0.034177 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 47, "role_matches": 46, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0105, quality 0.868)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3097, "goals": 0.3529, "goal_rate": 0.3529, "shots_on_target": 0.7136, "total_shots": 2.0495, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "key_pass": 0.8008, "rating": 6.9609, "minutes": 89.28, "total_pass": 20.476, "accurate_pass": 13.4016, "duels_won": 6.7329, "total_long_balls": 0.7668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3309, "crosses_total": 0.9136, "crosses_accurate": 0.1385, "touches": 38.6863, "possession_lost": 14.121, "dispossessed": 1.1873, "duels_lost": 10.2999, "aerial_lost": 5.5573, "total_contest": 1.7245, "won_contest": 0.4798, "ball_recovery": 2.6558, "challenges_lost": 0.4489, "fouls": 2.0664, "fouls_drawn": 1.2622, "assists": 0.2399, "assist_rate": 0.2399, "interceptions": 0.1975, "tackles_won": 0.7118, "tackles": 1.2696, "clearances": 1.5384, "blocks": 0.4362, "big_chances_created": 0.2779, "big_chances_missed": 0.5143, "xgot": 0.291, "offsides": 0.466, "ball_carries": 7.7412, "total_progression": 8.9818, "progressive_carries": 1.0112, "shots_off_target": 1.3359 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 68000000, "quality_factor": 0.8677, "boost_factor": 1.0105, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 47, "history_shrink": 0.0962, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0079)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3097, "goals": 0.3501, "goal_rate": 0.3501, "shots_on_target": 0.7162, "total_shots": 2.062, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "key_pass": 0.8008, "rating": 6.9609, "minutes": 89.28, "total_pass": 20.476, "accurate_pass": 13.4016, "duels_won": 6.7329, "total_long_balls": 0.7668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3309, "crosses_total": 0.9146, "crosses_accurate": 0.1385, "touches": 38.6863, "possession_lost": 14.121, "dispossessed": 1.1873, "duels_lost": 10.2999, "aerial_lost": 5.5573, "total_contest": 1.7245, "won_contest": 0.4798, "ball_recovery": 2.6558, "challenges_lost": 0.4489, "fouls": 2.0542, "fouls_drawn": 1.2522, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, "interceptions": 0.1959, "tackles_won": 0.7062, "tackles": 1.2696, "clearances": 1.5384, "blocks": 0.4362, "big_chances_created": 0.2779, "big_chances_missed": 0.5143, "xgot": 0.291, "offsides": 0.4623, "ball_carries": 7.7412, "total_progression": 8.9818, "progressive_carries": 1.0112, "shots_off_target": 1.3359 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0079, "history_matches": 47, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.992, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0495, "after": 2.062 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 2.0664, "after": 2.0542 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2622, "after": 1.2522 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7118, "after": 0.7062 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3097, "goals": 0.3501, "goal_rate": 0.3501, "shots_on_target": 0.7162, "total_shots": 2.062, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "key_pass": 0.8008, "rating": 6.9609, "minutes": 89.28, "total_pass": 20.476, "accurate_pass": 13.4016, "duels_won": 6.7329, "total_long_balls": 0.7668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3309, "crosses_total": 0.9146, "crosses_accurate": 0.1385, "touches": 38.6863, "possession_lost": 14.121, "dispossessed": 1.1873, "duels_lost": 10.2999, "aerial_lost": 5.5573, "total_contest": 1.7245, "won_contest": 0.4798, "ball_recovery": 2.6558, "challenges_lost": 0.4489, "fouls": 2.0542, "fouls_drawn": 1.2522, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, 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"antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0462, "skill_edge": 0.0014, "height_edge": 0.03, "attacker_skill": 0.8677, "defender_skill": 0.8645, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "market_value": 41000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.839 }, { "player": "Luka Vušković", "market_value": 69000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.89 } ], "xg_override": 0.324 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.062, "after": 2.1573 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3359, "after": 1.3976 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7162, "after": 0.7493 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.5143, "after": 0.5381 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3501, "after": 0.3663 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3097, "after": 0.324 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.291, "after": 0.3044 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.324, "goal_rate": 0.3663, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7493, "total_shots": 2.1573, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "key_pass": 0.8008, "rating": 6.9609, "minutes": 89.28, "total_pass": 20.476, "accurate_pass": 13.4016, "duels_won": 6.7329, "total_long_balls": 0.7668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3309, "crosses_total": 0.9146, "crosses_accurate": 0.1385, "touches": 38.6863, "possession_lost": 14.121, "dispossessed": 1.1873, 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.47 (squad xG sum 1.0237, xG scale 1.4379, xA scale 1.4069, team xA 1.18 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.466, "goal_rate": 0.3663, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7493, "total_shots": 2.1573, "expected_assists": 0.1145, "key_pass": 0.8008, "rating": 6.9609, "minutes": 89.28, "total_pass": 20.476, "accurate_pass": 13.4016, "duels_won": 6.7329, "total_long_balls": 0.7668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3309, "crosses_total": 0.9146, "crosses_accurate": 0.1385, "touches": 38.6863, "possession_lost": 14.121, "dispossessed": 1.1873, "duels_lost": 10.2999, "aerial_lost": 5.5573, "total_contest": 1.7245, "won_contest": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9831, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.5709, "goals_prevented": 0.0137, "rating": 7.0223, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 40.3071, "accurate_pass": 29.493, "total_long_balls": 22.6113, "accurate_long_balls": 11.7972, "touches": 47.1888, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.8817, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.9831, "possession_lost": 10.8141, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 25.5606, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6113 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9831, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.3962, "goals_prevented": 0.0021, "rating": 7.0223, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 6.2119, "accurate_pass": 4.5453, "total_long_balls": 3.4847, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8181, "touches": 7.2724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0606, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.1515, "possession_lost": 1.6666, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9392, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4847, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.3962, "goals_prevented": 0.0021, "rating": 7.0223, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 6.2119, "accurate_pass": 4.5453, "total_long_balls": 3.4847, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8181, "touches": 7.2724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0606, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.1515, "possession_lost": 1.6666, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9392, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4847, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.3962, "goals_prevented": 0.0021, "rating": 7.0223, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 6.2119, "accurate_pass": 4.5453, "total_long_balls": 3.4847, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8181, "touches": 7.2724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0606, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.1515, "possession_lost": 1.6666, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9392, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4847, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2972, "fifa_rank": 1585.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "El Hadji Malick Diouf": { "player_id": 1471764, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 183, "market_value": 36000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, 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"league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2518, "combined_rank_score": 907.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 677.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7219, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 1138.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7065, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Stefan Lončar", "ranking": 2513 }, { "player_name": "Jens Stage", "ranking": 2514 }, { "player_name": "Seol Hyun-Jin", "ranking": 2515 }, { "player_name": "Dramane Salou", "ranking": 2516 }, { "player_name": "Moritz Nicolas", "ranking": 2517 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Thiago Almada", "ranking": 2519 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Ramsey", "ranking": 2520 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Singo", "ranking": 2521 }, { "player_name": "Noah Okafor", "ranking": 2522 }, { "player_name": "Noah Atubolu", "ranking": 2523 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", 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(appearance prob 0.36); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4681, "tackles": 0.5464, "tackles_won": 0.3321, "clearances": 0.8825, "aerial_won": 0.4476, "total_shots": 0.1812, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 18.66, "total_pass": 7.774, "accurate_pass": 5.8169, "duels_won": 1.6765, "total_long_balls": 1.3544, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6435, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6592, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 1.2937, "crosses_accurate": 0.6864, "touches": 16.1285, "possession_lost": 4.4346, "dispossessed": 0.4923, "duels_lost": 1.6216, "aerial_lost": 1.1293, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3526, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3805, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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}, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0328 } ], "others": -0.0676, "total": 0.8825, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.969203 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.226931 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.06984 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048748 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.035133 } ], "others_margin": -0.073797 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4476431906223297, "model_output": 0.4476, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7572 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0826 }, { 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2328 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0572, "total": 0.1812, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.232764 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.021136 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.0106 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.010403 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009877 } ], "others_margin": -0.057263 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.706493854522705, "model_output": 6.7065, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": 0.0029, "total": 6.7065, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.036973 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.034639 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.017607 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015228 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.009238 } ], "others_margin": 0.002922 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4723, "tackles": 0.5513, "tackles_won": 0.3351, "clearances": 0.8904, "aerial_won": 0.4517, "total_shots": 0.1828, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 18.66, "total_pass": 7.844, "accurate_pass": 5.8693, "duels_won": 1.6916, "total_long_balls": 1.3666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6493, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0804, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6741, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7635, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.195, "crosses_total": 1.3053, "crosses_accurate": 0.6926, "touches": 16.2737, "possession_lost": 4.4745, "dispossessed": 0.4967, "duels_lost": 1.6362, "aerial_lost": 1.1395, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3839, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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4.6087, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1454, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3757, "tackles": 0.4385, "tackles_won": 0.2665, "clearances": 0.7082, "aerial_won": 0.3593, "total_shots": 0.1454, "rating": 6.7065, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 6.2392, "accurate_pass": 4.6685, "duels_won": 1.3455, "total_long_balls": 1.087, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5165, "total_own_half_passes": 1.6548, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3316, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3367, "crosses_total": 1.0382, "crosses_accurate": 0.5509, "touches": 12.9442, "possession_lost": 3.559, "dispossessed": 0.4967, "duels_lost": 1.3014, "aerial_lost": 1.1395, "total_contest": 0.0, 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"model_output": 0.2192, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2669 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0217, "total": 0.2192, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.266855 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.021955 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017383 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.011055 }, { "name": "totalProgression", 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0.013572 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012971 } ], "others_margin": 0.039512 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.0262 } ], "others": -0.0354, "total": 0.255, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.349558 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.221531 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.108329 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041303 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.026249 } ], "others_margin": -0.035467 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.65006160736084, "model_output": 6.6501, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0659 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0489 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 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"importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0579 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0505 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0532, "total": 6.6227, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057929 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050531 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03956 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.02196 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011455 } ], "others_margin": -0.053228 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9855, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2332, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "assists": 0.0405, "assist_rate": 0.0405, "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goals": 0.0447, "goal_rate": 0.0447, "shots_on_target": 0.1411, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 14.85, "total_pass": 2.5037, "accurate_pass": 1.971, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9056, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.9056, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0654, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.942, "possession_lost": 0.9855, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4528, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4528, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.971, "total_progression": 4.1183, "progressive_carries": 0.4528, "shots_off_target": 0.2691 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9855, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.8 to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assists": 0.0599, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "expected_goals": 0.0627, "goals": 0.0661, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.67, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9163, "total_progression": 6.0935, "progressive_carries": 0.67, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.97, "projection_minutes": 14.85, "minutes_scale": 1.4796, "appearance_probability": 0.499 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assists": 0.0599, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "expected_goals": 0.0627, "goals": 0.0661, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.67, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9163, "total_progression": 6.0935, "progressive_carries": 0.67, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0627, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.67, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9163, "total_progression": 6.0935, "progressive_carries": 0.67, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.47 (squad xG sum 1.0237, xG scale 1.4379, xA scale 1.4069, team xA 1.18 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.016, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.67, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9163, "total_progression": 6.0935, "progressive_carries": 0.67, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0302, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.472, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0237, "squad_xa_sum": 0.837, "team_expected_assists": 1.1776, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4379, "xa_scale": 1.4069, "opponent_lambda": 1.649, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.499 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0627, "after": 0.045 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0228, "after": 0.016 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.016, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.67, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.016, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.67, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, 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"allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.5187, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5187, "runner_up": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.191 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.016, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, 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"name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0236 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1929, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.089 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0105, "total": 0.0855, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.645586, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.619103 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.053345 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.04647 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.045939 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.040317 } ], "others_margin": -0.114931 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.10081733018159866, "model_output": 0.1008, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", 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"margin": 0.024055 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.02188 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.014319 } ], "others_margin": -0.032152 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04612017795443535, "model_output": 0.0461, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1287 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0026 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0018, "total": 0.0461, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.317908 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.152312 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.141733 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.052522 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.049907 } ], "others_margin": -0.038466 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3863091766834259, "model_output": 0.3863, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2438 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0494, "total": 0.3863, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.43461 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.084654 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.048112 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.046201 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.037115 } ], "others_margin": -0.120467 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.696903705596924, "model_output": 6.6969, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.088 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": 0.0022, "total": 6.6969, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.088004 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.022123 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013151 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.008882 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008361 } ], "others_margin": 0.00208 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0083, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0862, "goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "shots_on_target": 0.2127, "total_shots": 0.7205, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.3895, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 22.39, "total_pass": 7.5998, "accurate_pass": 5.1138, "duels_won": 2.9424, "total_long_balls": 0.7743, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4126, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6873, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4352, "crosses_total": 1.2937, "crosses_accurate": 0.2749, "touches": 16.1433, "possession_lost": 5.9741, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 2.7568, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 1.8211, "won_contest": 0.9638, "ball_recovery": 1.738, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.5405, "fouls_drawn": 0.47, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1952, "tackles_won": 0.5434, "tackles": 0.7935, "clearances": 0.8651, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2243, "big_chances_missed": 0.1489, "xgot": 0.0249, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6583, "total_progression": 33.0069, "progressive_carries": 0.9537, "shots_off_target": 0.5078 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.0083, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0052)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0862, "goals": 0.1012, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "shots_on_target": 0.2116, "total_shots": 0.7204, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.3895, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 22.39, "total_pass": 7.5998, "accurate_pass": 5.1138, "duels_won": 2.9424, "total_long_balls": 0.7743, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4126, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6873, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4352, "crosses_total": 1.2917, "crosses_accurate": 0.2749, "touches": 16.1433, "possession_lost": 5.9741, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 2.7568, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 1.8211, "won_contest": 0.9638, "ball_recovery": 1.738, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.5412, "fouls_drawn": 0.4699, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.5418, "tackles": 0.7935, "clearances": 0.8651, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2243, "big_chances_missed": 0.1489, "xgot": 0.0249, "offsides": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 5.6583, "total_progression": 33.0069, "progressive_carries": 0.9537, "shots_off_target": 0.5078 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0052, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2488, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.4 to 28.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1095, "goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "shots_on_target": 0.2689, "total_shots": 0.9154, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.4949, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, "crosses_total": 1.6413, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 20.5126, "possession_lost": 7.591, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 3.5029, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 2.314, "won_contest": 1.2247, "ball_recovery": 2.2084, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.6877, "fouls_drawn": 0.5971, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2497, "tackles_won": 0.6884, "tackles": 1.0083, "clearances": 1.0992, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.285, "big_chances_missed": 0.1892, "xgot": 0.0316, "offsides": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 7.1898, "total_progression": 41.9404, "progressive_carries": 1.2118, "shots_off_target": 0.6452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 28.45, "projection_minutes": 22.39, "minutes_scale": 1.2707, "appearance_probability": 0.552 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1095, "goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "shots_on_target": 0.2689, "total_shots": 0.9154, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.4949, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, "crosses_total": 1.6413, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 20.5126, "possession_lost": 7.591, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 3.5029, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 2.314, "won_contest": 1.2247, 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"total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, "crosses_total": 1.6413, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 20.5126, "possession_lost": 7.591, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 3.5029, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 2.314, "won_contest": 1.2247, "ball_recovery": 2.2084, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.6877, "fouls_drawn": 0.5971, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2497, "tackles_won": 0.6884, "tackles": 1.0083, "clearances": 1.0992, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.285, "big_chances_missed": 0.1892, "xgot": 0.0316, "offsides": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 7.1898, "total_progression": 41.9404, "progressive_carries": 1.2118, "shots_off_target": 0.6452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.47 (squad xG sum 1.0237, xG scale 1.4379, xA scale 1.4069, team xA 1.18 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2689, "total_shots": 0.9154, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "key_pass": 0.4949, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1197, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.472, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0237, "squad_xa_sum": 0.837, "team_expected_assists": 1.1776, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4379, "xa_scale": 1.4069, "opponent_lambda": 1.649, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.552 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1095, "after": 0.0869 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0591, "after": 0.0459 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2689, "total_shots": 0.9154, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "key_pass": 0.4949, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, "crosses_total": 1.6413, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 20.5126, "possession_lost": 7.591, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 3.5029, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 2.314, "won_contest": 1.2247, "ball_recovery": 2.2084, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.6877, "fouls_drawn": 0.5971, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2497, "tackles_won": 0.6884, "tackles": 1.0083, "clearances": 1.0992, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.285, "big_chances_missed": 0.1892, "xgot": 0.0251, "offsides": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 7.1898, "total_progression": 41.9404, "progressive_carries": 1.2118, "shots_off_target": 0.6452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1197, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1644, "fifa_rank": 888.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2689, "total_shots": 0.9154, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "key_pass": 0.4949, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, "crosses_total": 1.6413, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 20.5126, "possession_lost": 7.591, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 3.5029, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 2.314, "won_contest": 1.2247, "ball_recovery": 2.2084, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.6877, "fouls_drawn": 0.5971, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2497, "tackles_won": 0.6884, "tackles": 1.0083, "clearances": 1.0992, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.285, "big_chances_missed": 0.1892, "xgot": 0.0251, "offsides": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 7.1898, "total_progression": 41.9404, "progressive_carries": 1.2118, "shots_off_target": 0.6452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0804, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1197, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0804, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "scorer_weight": 0.0973, "squad_weight_total": 1.6042, "weight_share": 0.0607, "finishing_factor": 1.1197, "appearance_weight": 0.552, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.5187, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5187, "runner_up": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.191 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2689, "total_shots": 0.9154, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "key_pass": 0.4949, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, "crosses_total": 1.6413, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 20.5126, "possession_lost": 7.591, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 3.5029, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 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"allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0367, "squad_weight_total": 1.0952, "weight_share": 0.0335, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.552, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "weight": 0.1639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1639, "runner_up": "Mathias Jensen", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Igor Thiago" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Dango Ouattara": { "player_id": 1106451, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 177, "market_value": 36000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, 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"expected_assists": 0.0142, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1644, "combined_rank_score": 666.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 888.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6969, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dango Ouattara", "ranking_neighbors": { 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"ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.048112 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.046201 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.037115 } ], "others_margin": -0.120467 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.696903705596924, "model_output": 6.6969, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.088 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": 0.0022, "total": 6.6969, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.088004 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.022123 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013151 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.008882 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008361 } ], "others_margin": 0.00208 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0083, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0862, "goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.1017, "shots_on_target": 0.2127, "total_shots": 0.7205, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.3895, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 22.39, "total_pass": 7.5998, "accurate_pass": 5.1138, "duels_won": 2.9424, "total_long_balls": 0.7743, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4126, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6873, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4352, "crosses_total": 1.2937, "crosses_accurate": 0.2749, "touches": 16.1433, "possession_lost": 5.9741, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 2.7568, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 1.8211, "won_contest": 0.9638, "ball_recovery": 1.738, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.5405, "fouls_drawn": 0.47, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1952, "tackles_won": 0.5434, "tackles": 0.7935, "clearances": 0.8651, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2243, "big_chances_missed": 0.1489, "xgot": 0.0249, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6583, "total_progression": 33.0069, "progressive_carries": 0.9537, "shots_off_target": 0.5078 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.0083, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0052)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0862, "goals": 0.1012, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "shots_on_target": 0.2116, "total_shots": 0.7204, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "key_pass": 0.3895, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 22.39, "total_pass": 7.5998, "accurate_pass": 5.1138, "duels_won": 2.9424, "total_long_balls": 0.7743, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4126, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6873, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4352, "crosses_total": 1.2917, "crosses_accurate": 0.2749, "touches": 16.1433, "possession_lost": 5.9741, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 2.7568, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 1.8211, "won_contest": 0.9638, "ball_recovery": 1.738, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.5412, "fouls_drawn": 0.4699, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.5418, "tackles": 0.7935, "clearances": 0.8651, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2243, "big_chances_missed": 0.1489, "xgot": 0.0249, "offsides": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 5.6583, "total_progression": 33.0069, "progressive_carries": 0.9537, "shots_off_target": 0.5078 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0052, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2488, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.4 to 28.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1095, "goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "shots_on_target": 0.2689, "total_shots": 0.9154, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.4949, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, "crosses_total": 1.6413, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 20.5126, "possession_lost": 7.591, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 3.5029, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 2.314, "won_contest": 1.2247, "ball_recovery": 2.2084, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.6877, "fouls_drawn": 0.5971, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2497, "tackles_won": 0.6884, "tackles": 1.0083, "clearances": 1.0992, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.285, "big_chances_missed": 0.1892, "xgot": 0.0316, "offsides": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 7.1898, "total_progression": 41.9404, "progressive_carries": 1.2118, "shots_off_target": 0.6452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 28.45, "projection_minutes": 22.39, "minutes_scale": 1.2707, "appearance_probability": 0.552 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1095, "goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "shots_on_target": 0.2689, "total_shots": 0.9154, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.4949, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, "crosses_total": 1.6413, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 20.5126, "possession_lost": 7.591, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 3.5029, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 2.314, "won_contest": 1.2247, "ball_recovery": 2.2084, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.6877, "fouls_drawn": 0.5971, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2497, "tackles_won": 0.6884, "tackles": 1.0083, "clearances": 1.0992, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.285, "big_chances_missed": 0.1892, "xgot": 0.0316, "offsides": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 7.1898, "total_progression": 41.9404, "progressive_carries": 1.2118, "shots_off_target": 0.6452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1095, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2689, "total_shots": 0.9154, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.4949, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, "crosses_total": 1.6413, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 20.5126, "possession_lost": 7.591, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 3.5029, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 2.314, "won_contest": 1.2247, "ball_recovery": 2.2084, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.6877, "fouls_drawn": 0.5971, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2497, "tackles_won": 0.6884, "tackles": 1.0083, "clearances": 1.0992, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.285, "big_chances_missed": 0.1892, "xgot": 0.0316, "offsides": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 7.1898, "total_progression": 41.9404, "progressive_carries": 1.2118, "shots_off_target": 0.6452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.47 (squad xG sum 1.0237, xG scale 1.4379, xA scale 1.4069, team xA 1.18 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2689, "total_shots": 0.9154, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "key_pass": 0.4949, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, "crosses_total": 1.6413, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 20.5126, "possession_lost": 7.591, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 3.5029, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 2.314, "won_contest": 1.2247, "ball_recovery": 2.2084, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.6877, "fouls_drawn": 0.5971, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2497, "tackles_won": 0.6884, "tackles": 1.0083, "clearances": 1.0992, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.285, "big_chances_missed": 0.1892, "xgot": 0.0251, "offsides": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 7.1898, "total_progression": 41.9404, "progressive_carries": 1.2118, "shots_off_target": 0.6452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1197, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.472, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0237, "squad_xa_sum": 0.837, "team_expected_assists": 1.1776, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4379, "xa_scale": 1.4069, "opponent_lambda": 1.649, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.552 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1095, "after": 0.0869 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0591, "after": 0.0459 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2689, "total_shots": 0.9154, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "key_pass": 0.4949, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, "crosses_total": 1.6413, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 20.5126, "possession_lost": 7.591, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 3.5029, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 2.314, "won_contest": 1.2247, "ball_recovery": 2.2084, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.6877, "fouls_drawn": 0.5971, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2497, "tackles_won": 0.6884, "tackles": 1.0083, "clearances": 1.0992, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.285, "big_chances_missed": 0.1892, "xgot": 0.0251, "offsides": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 7.1898, "total_progression": 41.9404, "progressive_carries": 1.2118, "shots_off_target": 0.6452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1197, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1644, "fifa_rank": 888.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2689, "total_shots": 0.9154, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "key_pass": 0.4949, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, "crosses_total": 1.6413, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 20.5126, "possession_lost": 7.591, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 3.5029, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 2.314, "won_contest": 1.2247, "ball_recovery": 2.2084, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.6877, "fouls_drawn": 0.5971, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2497, "tackles_won": 0.6884, "tackles": 1.0083, "clearances": 1.0992, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.285, "big_chances_missed": 0.1892, "xgot": 0.0251, "offsides": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 7.1898, "total_progression": 41.9404, "progressive_carries": 1.2118, "shots_off_target": 0.6452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0804, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1197, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0804, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "scorer_weight": 0.0973, "squad_weight_total": 1.6042, "weight_share": 0.0607, "finishing_factor": 1.1197, "appearance_weight": 0.552, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.5187, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5187, "runner_up": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.191 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2689, "total_shots": 0.9154, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "key_pass": 0.4949, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.6567, "accurate_pass": 6.4979, "duels_won": 3.7388, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5243, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0943, "crosses_total": 1.6413, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 20.5126, "possession_lost": 7.591, "dispossessed": 0.2594, "duels_lost": 3.5029, "aerial_lost": 0.8509, "total_contest": 2.314, "won_contest": 1.2247, "ball_recovery": 2.2084, "challenges_lost": 0.2485, "fouls": 0.6877, "fouls_drawn": 0.5971, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2497, "tackles_won": 0.6884, "tackles": 1.0083, "clearances": 1.0992, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.285, "big_chances_missed": 0.1892, "xgot": 0.0251, "offsides": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 7.1898, "total_progression": 41.9404, "progressive_carries": 1.2118, "shots_off_target": 0.6452, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0804, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.044, "finishing_factor": 1.1197, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0367, "squad_weight_total": 1.0952, "weight_share": 0.0335, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.552, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "weight": 0.1639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1639, "runner_up": "Mathias Jensen", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Igor Thiago" ] } ] } } ] }, "Antoni Milambo": { "player_id": 1126692, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 179, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0305, "goal_rate": 0.0507, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6501, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 6, 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"rating", "margin": -0.017171 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.00976 } ], "others_margin": -0.047865 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0199, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2372, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "assists": 0.0335, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goals": 0.0427, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "shots_on_target": 0.1017, "total_shots": 0.2601, "rating": 6.6501, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 11.2189, "accurate_pass": 8.1592, "duels_won": 5.0995, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0796, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0597, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0995, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.3781, "possession_lost": 4.0796, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0199, "aerial_won": 2.0398, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0199, "tackles": 3.0597, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1583 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0199, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2816, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "assists": 0.0398, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goals": 0.0507, "goal_rate": 0.0507, "shots_on_target": 0.1207, "total_shots": 0.3088, "rating": 6.6501, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 13.318, "accurate_pass": 9.6858, "duels_won": 6.0536, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8429, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6322, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0536, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0039, "possession_lost": 4.8429, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2107, "aerial_won": 2.4215, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2107, "tackles": 3.6322, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1879, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.56, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1871, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2816, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "assists": 0.0398, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goals": 0.0507, "goal_rate": 0.0507, "shots_on_target": 0.1207, "total_shots": 0.3088, "rating": 6.6501, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 13.318, "accurate_pass": 9.6858, "duels_won": 6.0536, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8429, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6322, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0536, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0039, "possession_lost": 4.8429, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2107, "aerial_won": 2.4215, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2107, "tackles": 3.6322, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1879, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2816, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0507, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1207, "total_shots": 0.3088, "rating": 6.6501, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 13.318, "accurate_pass": 9.6858, "duels_won": 6.0536, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8429, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6322, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0536, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0039, "possession_lost": 4.8429, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2107, "aerial_won": 2.4215, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2107, "tackles": 3.6322, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1879, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.47 (squad xG sum 1.0237, xG scale 1.4379, xA scale 1.4069, team xA 1.18 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2816, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0305, "goal_rate": 0.0507, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1207, "total_shots": 0.3088, "rating": 6.6501, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 13.318, "accurate_pass": 9.6858, "duels_won": 6.0536, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8429, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6322, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0536, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0039, "possession_lost": 4.8429, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2107, "aerial_won": 2.4215, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2107, "tackles": 3.6322, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1879, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1139, "creation_factor": 1.2455 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.472, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0237, "squad_xa_sum": 0.837, "team_expected_assists": 1.1776, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4379, "xa_scale": 1.4069, "opponent_lambda": 1.649, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0404, "after": 0.0305 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0221, "after": 0.0163 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2816, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0305, "goal_rate": 0.0507, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1207, "total_shots": 0.3088, "rating": 6.6501, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 13.318, "accurate_pass": 9.6858, "duels_won": 6.0536, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8429, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6322, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0536, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0039, "possession_lost": 4.8429, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2107, "aerial_won": 2.4215, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2107, "tackles": 3.6322, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1879, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1139, "creation_factor": 1.2455, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4004, "fifa_rank": 3273.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2816, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0305, "goal_rate": 0.0507, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1207, "total_shots": 0.3088, "rating": 6.6501, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 13.318, "accurate_pass": 9.6858, "duels_won": 6.0536, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8429, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6322, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0536, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0039, "possession_lost": 4.8429, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2107, "aerial_won": 2.4215, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2107, "tackles": 3.6322, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1879, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0296, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1139, "creation_factor": 1.2455, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0296, "goal_rate": 0.0507, "scorer_weight": 0.034, "squad_weight_total": 1.6042, "weight_share": 0.0212, "finishing_factor": 1.1139, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.5187, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5187, "runner_up": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.191 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2816, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0305, "goal_rate": 0.0507, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1207, "total_shots": 0.3088, "rating": 6.6501, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 13.318, "accurate_pass": 9.6858, "duels_won": 6.0536, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8429, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6322, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0536, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0039, "possession_lost": 4.8429, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2107, "aerial_won": 2.4215, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2107, "tackles": 3.6322, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1879, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0296, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.016, "finishing_factor": 1.1139, "creation_factor": 1.2455, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.016, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "provider_weight": 0.0203, "squad_weight_total": 1.0952, "weight_share": 0.0185, "creation_factor": 1.2455, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "weight": 0.1639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1639, "runner_up": "Mathias Jensen", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Igor Thiago" ] } ] } } ] }, "Josh Dasilva": { "player_id": 856260, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 184, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.016, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.043, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0157, "finishing_factor": 1.0302, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023953.0, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0762, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023945.0, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4723, "combined_rank_score": 2808.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 873.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 4743.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6227, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Josh Dasilva", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sebastian Walukiewicz", "ranking": 4718 }, { "player_name": "Martín Távara", "ranking": 4719 }, { "player_name": "Boubacar Traorè", "ranking": 4720 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Sottil", "ranking": 4721 }, { "player_name": "Juan Viacava", "ranking": 4722 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gianluca Gaetano", "ranking": 4724 }, { "player_name": "Zakaria Aboukhlal", "ranking": 4725 }, { "player_name": "Juan David Cabal", "ranking": 4726 }, { "player_name": "Tommaso Pobega", "ranking": 4727 }, { "player_name": "Stefano Turati", "ranking": 4728 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4158 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2024 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0672 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0509 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.029 } ], "others": 0.0622, "total": 0.4162, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.415754 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.202434 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.067243 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.028981 } ], "others_margin": 0.062094 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.622741222381592, "model_output": 6.6227, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0579 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0505 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0532, "total": 6.6227, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057929 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050531 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03956 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.02196 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011455 } ], "others_margin": -0.053228 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9855, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2332, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "assists": 0.0405, "assist_rate": 0.0405, "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goals": 0.0447, "goal_rate": 0.0447, "shots_on_target": 0.1411, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 14.85, "total_pass": 2.5037, "accurate_pass": 1.971, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9056, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.9056, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0654, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.942, "possession_lost": 0.9855, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4528, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4528, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.971, "total_progression": 4.1183, "progressive_carries": 0.4528, "shots_off_target": 0.2691 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9855, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.8 to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assists": 0.0599, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "expected_goals": 0.0627, "goals": 0.0661, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.67, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9163, "total_progression": 6.0935, "progressive_carries": 0.67, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.97, "projection_minutes": 14.85, "minutes_scale": 1.4796, "appearance_probability": 0.499 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assists": 0.0599, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "expected_goals": 0.0627, "goals": 0.0661, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.67, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9163, "total_progression": 6.0935, "progressive_carries": 0.67, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0627, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.67, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9163, "total_progression": 6.0935, "progressive_carries": 0.67, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.47 (squad xG sum 1.0237, xG scale 1.4379, xA scale 1.4069, team xA 1.18 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.016, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.67, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9163, "total_progression": 6.0935, "progressive_carries": 0.67, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0302, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.472, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0237, "squad_xa_sum": 0.837, "team_expected_assists": 1.1776, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4379, "xa_scale": 1.4069, "opponent_lambda": 1.649, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.499 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0627, "after": 0.045 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0228, "after": 0.016 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.016, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.67, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9163, "total_progression": 6.0935, "progressive_carries": 0.67, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0302, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4723, "fifa_rank": 4743.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.016, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.67, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9163, "total_progression": 6.0935, "progressive_carries": 0.67, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.043, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0302, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.043, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "scorer_weight": 0.0464, "squad_weight_total": 1.6042, "weight_share": 0.0289, "finishing_factor": 1.0302, "appearance_weight": 0.499, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.5187, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5187, "runner_up": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.191 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.345, "expected_assists": 0.016, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2088, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.6227, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 3.7045, "accurate_pass": 2.9163, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5764, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8326, "possession_lost": 1.4582, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.67, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9163, "total_progression": 6.0935, "progressive_carries": 0.67, "shots_off_target": 0.3982, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.298, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.043, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0157, "finishing_factor": 1.0302, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.0599, "provider_weight": 0.02, "squad_weight_total": 1.0952, "weight_share": 0.0183, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.499, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "weight": 0.1639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1639, "runner_up": "Mathias Jensen", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1621, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Igor Thiago" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.47, "expected_assists": 1.18, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 424, "interceptions": 12, "tackles": 23, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Diego Gómez", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Michael Kayode" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "xg_contribution": 0.1698, "xg_multiplier": 0.9626, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Michael Kayode", "role": "RB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545 } ], "duel_analysis": "Diego Gómez (LW) is evenly matched against Michael Kayode in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.170 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pascal Groß", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 2300000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Keane Lewis-Potter" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "xg_contribution": 0.1218, "xg_multiplier": 0.8327, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "role": "LB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pascal Groß (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Keane Lewis-Potter in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €29M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.122 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jack Hinshelwood", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 34000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.746, "defenders": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.731, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.236, "xg_contribution": 0.1839, "xg_multiplier": 0.9944, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.764 }, { "player": "Mamadou Sangare", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.764 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Hinshelwood (CAM) is evenly matched against Vitaly Janelt and Mamadou Sangare in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.184 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Nathan Collins", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2654, "xg_multiplier": 0.9638, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nathan Collins", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Charalampos Kostoulas (ST) is evenly matched against Nathan Collins and Kristoffer Ajer in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.265 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yasin Ayari", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Vitaly Janelt" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.436, "xg_contribution": 0.1606, "xg_multiplier": 1.024, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.564 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yasin Ayari (CDM) is evenly matched against Vitaly Janelt in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €21M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.161 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Chema Andrés", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Vitaly Janelt" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.453, "xg_contribution": 0.0636, "xg_multiplier": 1.0484, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.547 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chema Andrés (CDM) is evenly matched against Vitaly Janelt in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mathias Jensen", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.502, "defenders": [ "Olivier Boscagli" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.392, "xg_contribution": 0.0678, "xg_multiplier": 0.8703, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Olivier Boscagli", "role": "RB", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.608 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mathias Jensen (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Olivier Boscagli in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Maxim De Cuyper" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.433, "xg_contribution": 0.0855, "xg_multiplier": 0.9307, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "role": "LB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.567 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikkel Damsgaard (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Maxim De Cuyper in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.086 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 30000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.718, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Chema Andrés" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.723, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "xg_contribution": 0.0483, "xg_multiplier": 0.9762, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776 }, { "player": "Chema Andrés", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yehor Yarmoliuk (CAM) is evenly matched against Yasin Ayari and Chema Andrés in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Igor Thiago", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "Luka Vušković" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.828, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "xg_contribution": 0.324, "xg_multiplier": 1.0462, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 }, { "player": "Luka Vušković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Thiago (ST) is evenly matched against Ferdi Kadıoğlu and Luka Vušković in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.324 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Vitaly Janelt", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.404, "xg_contribution": 0.0464, "xg_multiplier": 0.976, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.596 } ], "duel_analysis": "Vitaly Janelt (CDM) is evenly matched against Yasin Ayari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €41M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mamadou Sangare", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 49000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.821, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.469, "xg_contribution": 0.0618, "xg_multiplier": 1.0723, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.531 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mamadou Sangare (CDM) is slightly favored against Yasin Ayari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.722, "away_midfield_power": 0.728, "home_creative_power": 0.607, "away_creative_power": 0.668, "home_defensive_power": 0.671, "away_defensive_power": 0.763, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.498, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Diego Gómez", "Pascal Groß", "Yasin Ayari", "Chema Andrés", "Jack Hinshelwood" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Mathias Jensen", "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "Mamadou Sangare", "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.6, "key_personal_duel": "Yasin Ayari vs Mamadou Sangare", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.992, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.0 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.649, "away_lambda": 1.472, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Diego Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Michael Kayode", "Mathias Jensen" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pascal Groß": { "opponents": [ "Keane Lewis-Potter", "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jack Hinshelwood": { "opponents": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Mamadou Sangare", "Yehor Yarmoliuk" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Charalampos Kostoulas": { "opponents": [ "Nathan Collins", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yasin Ayari": { "opponents": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chema Andrés": { "opponents": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Olivier Boscagli": { "opponents": [ "Mathias Jensen" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Maxim De Cuyper": { "opponents": [ "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ferdi Kadıoğlu": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luka Vušković": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bart Verbruggen": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Michael Kayode": { "opponents": [ "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Keane Lewis-Potter": { "opponents": [ "Pascal Groß" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vitaly Janelt": { "opponents": [ "Jack Hinshelwood", "Yasin Ayari", "Chema Andrés" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mamadou Sangare": { "opponents": [ "Jack Hinshelwood", "Yasin Ayari", "Chema Andrés" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nathan Collins": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kristoffer Ajer": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mathias Jensen": { "opponents": [ "Olivier Boscagli", "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mikkel Damsgaard": { "opponents": [ "Maxim De Cuyper", "Pascal Groß" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yehor Yarmoliuk": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Chema Andrés", "Jack Hinshelwood" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Igor Thiago": { "opponents": [ "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "Luka Vušković" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Caoimhin Kelleher": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas", "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Yasin Ayari vs Mamadou Sangare will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.97, Away: 0.63. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8767, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0821, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9122, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8983, "home_midfield_factor": 0.992, "away_midfield_factor": 1.0, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.7137, "away_avg_quality": 0.7148, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0011, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0103, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.0562, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.1501, "elite_count_gap": 2, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0202, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9651, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0863 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.992, "result": 1.0776 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0776 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.4001 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.097, "result": 1.5359 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8989, "result": 1.3806 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9122, "result": 1.2594 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0821, "result": 1.3415 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3415, "result": 1.3415, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0202, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.3415, "result": 1.3415 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3415 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1635, "result": 1.5045 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.4483, "result": 1.8777 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.8777, "result": 1.878, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.02, "result": 1.916 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 1.916, "result": 1.9296, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.93 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.93 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.93, "result": 1.93, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.649 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6338, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8378 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8378 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8378 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8378 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9639, "result": 0.8076 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8767, "result": 0.708 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8983, "result": 0.636 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 0.816 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.816, "result": 0.816, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0202, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.816, "result": 0.816 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.816 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1616, "result": 0.9776 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 1.4619 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4619, "result": 1.462, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.2, "result": 1.754 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.754, "result": 1.7415, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.742 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.742 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.742, "result": 1.742, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.472 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1635, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1616, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_squad": "Brentford", "home_goals_per90": 2.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.448, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.93, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.742, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.8777, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4619, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.649, "final_away_lambda": 1.472 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.097, "attack_index": 1.476, "defense_concede_index": 0.844, "form_multiplier": 1.019, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.02, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.16, "team_ppg": 1.81, "opponent_ppg": 1.48 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9639, "attack_index": 1.077, "defense_concede_index": 0.856, "form_multiplier": 0.981, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.47, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.17, "team_ppg": 1.48, "opponent_ppg": 1.81 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Brighton vs Brentford. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.878, Away 1.462). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.649, Away 1.472 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_squad": "Brentford", "home_goals_per90": 2.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.448, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.649, "away_lambda": 1.472, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.878, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.462 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:34:51Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }