{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261108", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0959, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0665, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0959, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Chelsea", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2381, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1114 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0959 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0914 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0799 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0665 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0539, "0-1": 0.0914, "0-2": 0.0799, "0-3": 0.0461, "0-4": 0.02, "0-5": 0.0069, "0-6": 0.002, "1-0": 0.0631, "1-1": 0.1114, "1-2": 0.0959, "1-3": 0.0554, "1-4": 0.024, "1-5": 0.0083, "1-6": 0.0024, "1-7": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0384, "2-1": 0.0665, "2-2": 0.0576, "2-3": 0.0333, "2-4": 0.0144, "2-5": 0.005, "2-6": 0.0014, "3-0": 0.0154, "3-1": 0.0266, "3-2": 0.0231, "3-3": 0.0133, "3-4": 0.0058, "3-5": 0.002, "3-6": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0046, "4-1": 0.008, "4-2": 0.0069, "4-3": 0.004, "4-4": 0.0017, "4-5": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0011, "5-1": 0.0019, "5-2": 0.0017, "5-3": 0.001 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2641, "draw": 0.2381, "away_win": 0.4978 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5619, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4381, "btts_yes": 0.5763, "btts_no": 0.4237, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1768, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3009 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 6.91, "ATR": 6.83, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.83, "MCR": 7.0, "ATR": 7.07, "GK": 7.0 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Sunderland vs Chelsea. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Sunderland 5W-1D-4L vs Chelsea over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Brian Brobbey, Cole Palmer, João Pedro", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Noah Sadiki vs Morgan Rogers will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.76, Away: 1.15. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.68, "home_lambda": 1.201, "away_lambda": 1.733, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 5, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 1.0071, "away_multiplier": 0.9929 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1114, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2641, "draw": 0.2381, "away_win": 0.4978 }, "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4978, "fair_spread": -0.532, "fair_total": 2.934, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.201, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.733, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5619, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5763, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1768, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3009, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Brian Brobbey (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.3857, "probability": 0.32, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "João Pedro (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.5592, "probability": 0.4283, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Granit Xhaka (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.1709, "probability": 0.1571, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Cole Palmer (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.2462, "probability": 0.2182, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.934, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 924, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.6, "possession_home_pct": 49.3, "possession_away_pct": 50.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4978, "script": "Chelsea is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.53 goals and fair total 2.93.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Sunderland must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Chelsea lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Chelsea chance creation leans on João Pedro against Kevin Danso, Daniel Ballard in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Sunderland: starters carry the main goal usage through Brian Brobbey; bench watchlist: Habib Diarra, Malick Fofana, Chemsdine Talbi.", "Chelsea: starters carry the main goal usage through Cole Palmer, João Pedro; bench watchlist: Estêvão, Marco Palestra, Valentín Barco.", "Assist usage should flow through Granit Xhaka, Cole Palmer; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Chelsea tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.47 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Sunderland is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Chelsea.", "Sunderland wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Sunderland": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Robin Roefs": { "player_id": 1012928, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 193, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0334, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 44, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.7833, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 13.0764, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.9191, "shots_faced": 16.5, "expected_saves": 4.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.39, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363905.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0142, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.5685 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363900.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", 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}, { "player_name": "Milan Obradović", "ranking": 1025 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Carreras", "ranking": 1026 }, { "player_name": "Mamadou Sangare", "ranking": 1027 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", 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"opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 5.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, 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"name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0281 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0202 } ], "others": -0.0055, "total": 0.0332, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.033953 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028088 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.028025 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024677 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.020233 } ], "others_margin": -0.005575 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.988957405090332, "model_output": 6.989, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.7711, "goals_prevented": 0.0334, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.0822, "accurate_pass": 21.5234, "total_long_balls": 18.3478, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1561, "touches": 44.0029, "clearances": 1.1619, "ball_recovery": 7.7511, "high_claims": 0.8034, "punches": 0.7833, "aerial_won": 0.3453, "sweeper_actions": 0.6014, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6014, "saves_inside_box": 1.3914, "possession_lost": 13.0764, "duels_won": 0.9166, "duels_lost": 0.113, "total_contest": 0.0493, "won_contest": 0.0493, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4423, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1294, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8697, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.9191, "shots_faced": 18.2, "expected_saves": 4.45, "high_pressure_saves": 1.54, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.1254, xG scale 1.0672, xA scale 1.0672, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7711, "goals_prevented": 0.0334, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.0822, "accurate_pass": 21.5234, "total_long_balls": 18.3478, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1561, "touches": 44.0029, "clearances": 1.1619, "ball_recovery": 7.7511, "high_claims": 0.8034, "punches": 0.7833, "aerial_won": 0.3453, "sweeper_actions": 0.6014, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6014, "saves_inside_box": 1.3914, "possession_lost": 13.0764, "duels_won": 0.9166, "duels_lost": 0.113, "total_contest": 0.0493, "won_contest": 0.0493, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4423, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1294, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8697, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.9191, "shots_faced": 16.5, "expected_saves": 4.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.39, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7648, "team_expected_assists": 0.8162, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6796, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0672, "xa_scale": 1.0672, "opponent_lambda": 1.733, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 18.2, "after": 16.5 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 4.45, "after": 4.04 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.54, "after": 1.39 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7711, "goals_prevented": 0.0334, "rating": 6.989, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 34.0822, "accurate_pass": 21.5234, "total_long_balls": 18.3478, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1561, "touches": 44.0029, "clearances": 1.1619, "ball_recovery": 7.7511, "high_claims": 0.8034, "punches": 0.7833, "aerial_won": 0.3453, "sweeper_actions": 0.6014, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6014, "saves_inside_box": 1.3914, "possession_lost": 13.0764, "duels_won": 0.9166, "duels_lost": 0.113, "total_contest": 0.0493, "won_contest": 0.0493, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4423, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1294, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8697, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.9191, "shots_faced": 16.5, "expected_saves": 4.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.39, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051082 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036598 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.023783 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.014639 } ], "others_margin": 0.042827 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.612407684326172, "model_output": 6.6124, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0577 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0445, "total": 6.6124, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.057656 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": -0.029516 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.020054 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019833 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.014821 } ], "others_margin": -0.044495 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0053, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1074, "tackles_won": 0.656, "clearances": 4.7917, "aerial_won": 2.063, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 46.9467, "accurate_pass": 39.529, "duels_won": 3.5822, "total_long_balls": 5.4314, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0118, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.0523, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1262, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4767, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.1052, "possession_lost": 10.6555, "dispossessed": 0.0683, "duels_lost": 4.1559, "aerial_lost": 2.3787, "total_contest": 0.105, "won_contest": 0.089, "ball_recovery": 2.7474, "challenges_lost": 0.53, "fouls": 1.1628, "fouls_drawn": 0.6249, "blocks": 0.7913, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0636, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "shots_on_target": 0.1731, "big_chances_created": 0.0359, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 15.0304, "total_progression": 59.0299, "progressive_carries": 0.6898, "key_pass": 0.6737, "shots_off_target": 0.5549 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.0053, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1074, "tackles_won": 0.656, "clearances": 4.7917, "aerial_won": 2.063, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 46.9467, "accurate_pass": 39.529, "duels_won": 3.5822, "total_long_balls": 5.4314, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0118, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.0523, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1262, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4767, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.1052, "possession_lost": 10.6555, "dispossessed": 0.0683, "duels_lost": 4.1559, "aerial_lost": 2.3787, "total_contest": 0.105, "won_contest": 0.089, "ball_recovery": 2.7474, "challenges_lost": 0.53, "fouls": 1.1628, "fouls_drawn": 0.6249, "blocks": 0.7913, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0636, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "shots_on_target": 0.1731, "big_chances_created": 0.0359, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 15.0304, "total_progression": 59.0299, "progressive_carries": 0.6898, "key_pass": 0.6737, "shots_off_target": 0.5549 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1074, "tackles_won": 0.656, "clearances": 4.7917, "aerial_won": 2.063, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 46.9467, "accurate_pass": 39.529, "duels_won": 3.5822, "total_long_balls": 5.4314, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0118, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.0523, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1262, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4767, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.1052, "possession_lost": 10.6555, "dispossessed": 0.0683, "duels_lost": 4.1559, "aerial_lost": 2.3787, "total_contest": 0.105, "won_contest": 0.089, "ball_recovery": 2.7474, "challenges_lost": 0.53, "fouls": 1.1628, "fouls_drawn": 0.6249, "blocks": 0.7913, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0636, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "shots_on_target": 0.1731, "big_chances_created": 0.0359, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 15.0304, "total_progression": 59.0299, "progressive_carries": 0.6898, "key_pass": 0.6737, "shots_off_target": 0.5549, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1074, "tackles_won": 0.656, "clearances": 4.7917, "aerial_won": 2.063, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 46.9467, "accurate_pass": 39.529, "duels_won": 3.5822, "total_long_balls": 5.4314, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0118, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.0523, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1262, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4767, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.1052, "possession_lost": 10.6555, "dispossessed": 0.0683, "duels_lost": 4.1559, "aerial_lost": 2.3787, "total_contest": 0.105, "won_contest": 0.089, "ball_recovery": 2.7474, "challenges_lost": 0.53, "fouls": 1.1628, "fouls_drawn": 0.6249, "blocks": 0.7913, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0636, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "shots_on_target": 0.1731, "big_chances_created": 0.0359, "xgot": 0.0175, "ball_carries": 15.0304, "total_progression": 59.0299, "progressive_carries": 0.6898, "key_pass": 0.6737, "shots_off_target": 0.5549, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.1254, xG scale 1.0672, xA scale 1.0672, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1074, "tackles_won": 0.656, "clearances": 4.7917, "aerial_won": 2.063, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 46.9467, "accurate_pass": 39.529, "duels_won": 3.5822, "total_long_balls": 5.4314, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0118, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.0523, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1262, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4767, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.1052, "possession_lost": 10.6555, "dispossessed": 0.0683, "duels_lost": 4.1559, "aerial_lost": 2.3787, "total_contest": 0.105, "won_contest": 0.089, "ball_recovery": 2.7474, "challenges_lost": 0.53, "fouls": 1.1628, "fouls_drawn": 0.6249, "blocks": 0.7913, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0679, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "shots_on_target": 0.1731, "big_chances_created": 0.0359, "xgot": 0.0187, "ball_carries": 15.0304, "total_progression": 59.0299, "progressive_carries": 0.6898, "key_pass": 0.6737, "shots_off_target": 0.5549, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7648, "team_expected_assists": 0.8162, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6796, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0672, "xa_scale": 1.0672, "opponent_lambda": 1.733, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1074, "tackles_won": 0.656, "clearances": 4.7917, "aerial_won": 2.063, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 46.9467, "accurate_pass": 39.529, "duels_won": 3.5822, "total_long_balls": 5.4314, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0118, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.0523, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1262, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4767, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.1052, "possession_lost": 10.6555, "dispossessed": 0.0683, "duels_lost": 4.1559, "aerial_lost": 2.3787, "total_contest": 0.105, "won_contest": 0.089, "ball_recovery": 2.7474, "challenges_lost": 0.53, "fouls": 1.1628, "fouls_drawn": 0.6249, "blocks": 0.7913, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0679, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "shots_on_target": 0.1731, "big_chances_created": 0.0359, "xgot": 0.0187, "ball_carries": 15.0304, "total_progression": 59.0299, "progressive_carries": 0.6898, "key_pass": 0.6737, "shots_off_target": 0.5549, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1188, "fifa_rank": 867.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1074, "tackles_won": 0.656, "clearances": 4.7917, "aerial_won": 2.063, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 46.9467, "accurate_pass": 39.529, "duels_won": 3.5822, "total_long_balls": 5.4314, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0118, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.0523, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1262, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4767, "crosses_total": 0.1938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.1052, "possession_lost": 10.6555, "dispossessed": 0.0683, "duels_lost": 4.1559, "aerial_lost": 2.3787, "total_contest": 0.105, "won_contest": 0.089, "ball_recovery": 2.7474, "challenges_lost": 0.53, "fouls": 1.1628, "fouls_drawn": 0.6249, "blocks": 0.7913, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0679, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "shots_on_target": 0.1731, "big_chances_created": 0.0359, "xgot": 0.0187, "ball_carries": 15.0304, "total_progression": 59.0299, "progressive_carries": 0.6898, "key_pass": 0.6737, "shots_off_target": 0.5549, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0656, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0543, "squad_weight_total": 1.165, "weight_share": 0.0466, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.4258, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4258, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1478 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1125, "tackles": 1.1074, "tackles_won": 0.656, "clearances": 4.7917, "aerial_won": 2.063, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6124, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 46.9467, "accurate_pass": 39.529, "duels_won": 3.5822, "total_long_balls": 5.4314, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0118, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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-0.1076, "total": 2.0171, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.265891 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.103031 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.063042 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.051538 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.044458 } ], "others_margin": -0.051976 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1708370447158813, "model_output": 1.1708, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4354 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0204 } ], "others": 0.1533, "total": 1.1708, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.435356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057759 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.032793 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030727 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.020421 } ], "others_margin": 0.153376 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.861044406890869, "model_output": 6.861, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0235, "total": 6.861, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.048593 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022658 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.013692 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.013319 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012585 } ], "others_margin": -0.023414 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0033, quality 0.602)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3011, "tackles": 2.001, "tackles_won": 1.2388, "clearances": 4.49, "aerial_won": 2.0238, "total_shots": 1.1747, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6647, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.9037, "fouls_drawn": 0.6686, "blocks": 0.6206, "goals": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0509, "assists": 0.0256, "assist_rate": 0.0256, "expected_goals": 0.0937, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.2398, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0932, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 0.9349 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17100000, "quality_factor": 0.6016, "boost_factor": 1.0033, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0049)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2992, "tackles": 2.001, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "clearances": 4.49, "aerial_won": 2.0238, "total_shots": 1.1689, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 0.6206, "goals": 0.0506, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "assists": 0.0255, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "expected_goals": 0.0937, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0932, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 0.9349 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0049, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9248, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.6647, "after": 2.6561 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2388, "after": 1.2327 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1747, "after": 1.1689 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2992, "tackles": 2.001, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "clearances": 4.49, "aerial_won": 2.0238, "total_shots": 1.1735, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 0.6206, "goals": 0.0506, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "assists": 0.0255, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "expected_goals": 0.0937, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0932, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 0.9349 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2992, "tackles": 2.001, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "clearances": 4.49, "aerial_won": 2.0238, "total_shots": 1.1735, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 0.6206, "goals": 0.0506, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "assists": 0.0255, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "expected_goals": 0.0937, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0932, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 0.9349, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634, "opponent_faced": "Jordan Henderson", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jordan Henderson", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2992, "tackles": 2.001, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "clearances": 4.49, "aerial_won": 2.0238, "total_shots": 1.1735, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 0.6206, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0937, "expected_assists": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0932, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 0.9349, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634, "opponent_faced": "Jordan Henderson", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.1254, xG scale 1.0672, xA scale 1.0672, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2992, "tackles": 2.001, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "clearances": 4.49, "aerial_won": 2.0238, "total_shots": 1.1735, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 0.6206, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1, "expected_assists": 0.0696, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0995, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 0.9349, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634, "opponent_faced": "Jordan Henderson", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7648, "team_expected_assists": 0.8162, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6796, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0672, "xa_scale": 1.0672, "opponent_lambda": 1.733, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0937, "after": 0.1 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2992, "tackles": 2.001, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "clearances": 4.49, "aerial_won": 2.0238, "total_shots": 1.1735, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 0.6206, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1, "expected_assists": 0.0696, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "big_chances_created": 0.1451, "xgot": 0.0995, "ball_carries": 15.0332, "total_progression": 62.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.0452, "key_pass": 0.4228, "shots_off_target": 0.9349, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634, "opponent_faced": "Jordan Henderson", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 425, "fifa_rank": 501.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2992, "tackles": 2.001, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "clearances": 4.49, "aerial_won": 2.0238, "total_shots": 1.1735, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 35.6343, "accurate_pass": 27.6813, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 4.4928, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1117, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.9276, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7538, "crosses_total": 2.6561, "crosses_accurate": 0.6488, "touches": 59.8539, "possession_lost": 13.4638, "dispossessed": 0.5078, "duels_lost": 4.0647, "aerial_lost": 2.0378, "total_contest": 0.832, "won_contest": 0.612, "ball_recovery": 4.1618, "challenges_lost": 0.4741, "fouls": 0.8992, "fouls_drawn": 0.6653, "blocks": 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"name": "rating", "margin": -0.01994 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014868 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013011 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010444 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009229 } ], "others_margin": -0.005005 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.125 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0544 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0208 } ], "others": -0.0989, "total": 0.6348, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.277803 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124989 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054414 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.023175 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020757 } ], "others_margin": -0.098953 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.844242572784424, "model_output": 6.8442, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0473 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0397, "total": 6.8442, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.047263 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03081 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021902 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01676 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012915 } ], "others_margin": -0.039658 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.046 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0173 } ], "others": 0.0032, "total": 6.9166, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.046004 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028504 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.020433 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.019191 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.017313 } ], "others_margin": 0.003283 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.3333, "total_contest": 2.4073, "won_contest": 1.1089, "challenges_lost": 1.2182, "fouls": 0.5721, "fouls_drawn": 1.805, "blocks": 0.0634, "big_chances_created": 0.4706, "big_chances_missed": 0.1221, "xgot": 0.2686, "ball_carries": 11.9906, "total_progression": 21.935, "progressive_carries": 0.9735, "shots_off_target": 1.0651 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0059, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0082)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6223, "expected_assists": 0.1506, "assists": 0.1176, "assist_rate": 0.1176, "expected_goals": 0.1814, "goals": 0.1439, "goal_rate": 0.1439, "shots_on_target": 0.4657, "total_shots": 1.5349, "rating": 6.9166, "minutes": 87.18, "total_pass": 35.1811, "accurate_pass": 28.517, "duels_won": 4.7349, "total_long_balls": 1.6198, "accurate_long_balls": 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"global_player_rank": 1283, "fifa_rank": 687.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6223, "expected_assists": 0.1607, "assist_rate": 0.1176, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1756, "goal_rate": 0.1305, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4224, "total_shots": 1.3923, "rating": 6.9166, "minutes": 87.18, "total_pass": 35.1811, "accurate_pass": 28.517, "duels_won": 4.7349, "total_long_balls": 1.6198, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7276, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9714, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4783, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0386, "crosses_total": 2.7141, "crosses_accurate": 1.1169, "touches": 53.5093, "possession_lost": 12.6682, "dispossessed": 1.1306, "duels_lost": 5.2393, "aerial_won": 0.9, 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.261852 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121344 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.118985 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.051421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.04106 } ], "others_margin": -0.135516 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.772793292999268, "model_output": 6.7728, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0588 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "touches_p90", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0115, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3872, "goals": 0.4362, "goal_rate": 0.4362, "shots_on_target": 1.1667, "total_shots": 2.4441, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "key_pass": 0.6423, "rating": 6.8295, "minutes": 80.26, "total_pass": 12.8941, "accurate_pass": 10.1974, "duels_won": 5.2878, "total_long_balls": 0.2124, "accurate_long_balls": 0.171, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1757, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8388, "crosses_total": 0.1362, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.6137, "possession_lost": 6.8163, "dispossessed": 0.962, "duels_lost": 4.758, "aerial_lost": 1.6355, "total_contest": 0.9029, "won_contest": 0.2466, "ball_recovery": 1.3803, "challenges_lost": 0.1057, "fouls": 1.483, "fouls_drawn": 1.9355, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0256, 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"season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5746, "combined_rank_score": 4020.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 7704.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9777, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Melker Ellborg", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Adilson Malanda", "ranking": 5741 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Guerrero", "ranking": 5742 }, { "player_name": "Eder Chaux", "ranking": 5743 }, { "player_name": "Vladan Kovacević", "ranking": 5744 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Edozie", "ranking": 5745 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jan Ángulo", "ranking": 5747 }, { "player_name": "Alfie Devine", "ranking": 5748 }, { "player_name": "Tom Fellows", "ranking": 5749 }, { "player_name": "Welington", "ranking": 5750 }, { "player_name": "Tomás Ahumada", "ranking": 5751 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9873, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (3 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.11); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7484, "goals_prevented": -0.0888, "rating": 6.9777, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 32.9757, "accurate_pass": 15.5695, "total_long_balls": 21.3479, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3304, "touches": 43.8591, "clearances": 2.0, "ball_recovery": 10.7668, "high_claims": 0.0, "punches": 0.8921, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.3304, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3304, "saves_inside_box": 1.6113, "possession_lost": 17.4062, "duels_won": 0.7191, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3304, "won_contest": 0.3304, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3887, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0165, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1807 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 13.1808, "accurateLongBalls": 4.3304, "possessionLostCtrl": 17.4062, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.0904, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.3304, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.3304 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.748354911804199, "model_output": 2.7484, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1644 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0163 } ], "others": -0.0295, "total": 2.7484, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057906 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.011693 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.00927 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.007776 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.005855 } ], "others_margin": -0.010698 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.08882518112659454, "model_output": -0.0888, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": -0.0888, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.02725 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.017494 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015932 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.014933 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.012955 } ], "others_margin": -0.02775 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.977729320526123, "model_output": 6.9777, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": -0.0366, "total": 6.9777, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.038285 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.025273 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.021324 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.017848 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.017711 } ], "others_margin": -0.036626 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363905.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1195, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363900.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7162 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0261 } ], "others": -0.0945, "total": 0.429, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.726048 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.07516 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.072683 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.05213 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.048725 } ], "others_margin": -0.199167 } }, { "target": 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.800904 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.275438 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.072012 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.066761 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": 0.05823 } ], "others_margin": 0.164197 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20261311531066895, "model_output": 0.2026, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2426 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0206, "total": 0.2026, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.242587 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02194 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.019656 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.015685 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010493 } ], "others_margin": -0.02063 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.674383163452148, "model_output": 6.6744, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0234, "total": 6.6744, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "error_severity", "margin": -0.030194 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025038 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018197 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.017319 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010291 } ], "others_margin": -0.02336 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.529)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4614, "tackles": 0.4293, "tackles_won": 0.2449, "clearances": 2.2534, "aerial_won": 1.1633, "total_shots": 0.2028, "rating": 6.6744, "minutes": 26.86, "total_pass": 22.6783, "accurate_pass": 19.4597, "duels_won": 1.5631, "total_long_balls": 3.383, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2732, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6478, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5389, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9207, "crosses_total": 0.2812, "crosses_accurate": 0.2812, "touches": 27.3113, "possession_lost": 3.8888, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4483, "aerial_lost": 1.4483, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7206, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.389, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9207, "crosses_total": 0.2808, "crosses_accurate": 0.2812, "touches": 27.3113, "possession_lost": 3.8888, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4483, "aerial_lost": 1.4483, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7206, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.389, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2808, "assist_rate": 0.2808, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1433, "total_progression": 40.0255, "progressive_carries": 0.541, "key_pass": 0.2812, "shots_off_target": 0.2028 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0015, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2984, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.9 to 19.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0134, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4077, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assists": 0.0665, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "expected_goals": 0.0602, "goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "shots_on_target": 0.2239, "total_shots": 0.5696, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 20.34, "total_pass": 6.2091, "accurate_pass": 4.9613, "duels_won": 0.6889, "total_long_balls": 0.3674, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1961, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4046, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2364, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7249, "crosses_total": 0.7916, "crosses_accurate": 0.1755, "touches": 9.6703, "possession_lost": 2.6574, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.7314, "aerial_won": 0.2462, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0539, "tackles_won": 0.0539, "tackles": 0.1713, "clearances": 0.1269, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.373, "fouls_drawn": 0.2714, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2308, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8315, "total_progression": 13.7443, "progressive_carries": 0.5244, "shots_off_target": 0.3457 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0134, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4077, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assists": 0.068, "assist_rate": 0.068, "expected_goals": 0.0602, "goals": 0.0547, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "shots_on_target": 0.2234, "total_shots": 0.5699, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 20.34, "total_pass": 6.2091, "accurate_pass": 4.9613, "duels_won": 0.6889, "total_long_balls": 0.3674, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1961, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4046, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2364, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7249, "crosses_total": 0.7898, "crosses_accurate": 0.1755, "touches": 9.6703, "possession_lost": 2.6574, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.7314, "aerial_won": 0.2462, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0538, "tackles_won": 0.0538, "tackles": 0.1713, "clearances": 0.1269, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3739, "fouls_drawn": 0.2708, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2308, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8315, "total_progression": 13.7443, "progressive_carries": 0.5244, "shots_off_target": 0.3457 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.226, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.3 to 18.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.033, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "shots_on_target": 0.2056, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.3182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.72, "projection_minutes": 20.34, "minutes_scale": 0.9204, "appearance_probability": 0.718 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.033, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "shots_on_target": 0.2056, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.3182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2056, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.3182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.1254, xG scale 1.0672, xA scale 1.0672, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2056, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.3182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9516, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7648, "team_expected_assists": 0.8162, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6796, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0672, "xa_scale": 1.0672, "opponent_lambda": 1.733, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.718 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0554, "after": 0.0425 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.033, "after": 0.0253 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2056, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.3182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9516, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3071, "fifa_rank": 1436.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2056, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.3182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0413, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9516, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "scorer_weight": 0.0404, "squad_weight_total": 1.165, "weight_share": 0.0347, "finishing_factor": 0.9516, "appearance_weight": 0.718, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.4258, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4258, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1478 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2056, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.3182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0413, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0249, "finishing_factor": 0.9516, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0249, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "provider_weight": 0.0316, "squad_weight_total": 0.7435, "weight_share": 0.0425, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.718, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Granit Xhaka", "weight": 0.1367, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1367, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1343, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jules Ahoka": { "player_id": 2137673, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 29, "height": 190, "market_value": 6800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 5.2481, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, 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{ "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03510162606835365, "model_output": 0.0351, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0392 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0028 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 0.0351, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.535172 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.22077 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.18289 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.073148 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.071582 } ], "others_margin": -0.053857 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.11530550569295883, "model_output": 0.1153, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1389 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.055 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": 0.0074, "total": 0.1153, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.574512 }, { "name": "totalShots", 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"margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.360349 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.221948 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.052464 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.046719 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.044635 } ], "others_margin": 0.047147 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.648903846740723, "model_output": 6.6489, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.065 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0534 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], "others": -0.0467, "total": 6.6489, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065012 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.053395 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01819 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012209 } ], "others_margin": -0.046696 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9948, quality 0.484)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2239, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "assists": 0.0443, "assist_rate": 0.0443, "expected_goals": 0.0306, "goals": 0.0349, "goal_rate": 0.0349, "shots_on_target": 0.1147, "total_shots": 0.4862, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 21.0, "total_pass": 6.9636, "accurate_pass": 2.9844, "duels_won": 4.974, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9844, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9844, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.9376, "possession_lost": 4.974, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.9792, "aerial_won": 2.9844, "aerial_lost": 2.9844, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.9948, 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"total_own_half_passes": 3.1489, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1489, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1985, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.5955, "possession_lost": 5.2481, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1985, "aerial_won": 3.1489, "aerial_lost": 2.9844, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0496, "won_contest": 1.0496, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0496, "fouls_drawn": 1.0496, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1985, "total_progression": 25.5115, "progressive_carries": 1.0496, "shots_off_target": 0.392, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.16, "projection_minutes": 21.0, "minutes_scale": 1.0551, "appearance_probability": 0.507 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2362, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "assists": 0.0467, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goals": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.121, "total_shots": 0.513, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 7.3474, "accurate_pass": 3.1489, "duels_won": 5.2481, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1489, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1489, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1985, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.5955, "possession_lost": 5.2481, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1985, "aerial_won": 3.1489, "aerial_lost": 2.9844, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0496, "won_contest": 1.0496, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0496, "fouls_drawn": 1.0496, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1985, "total_progression": 25.5115, "progressive_carries": 1.0496, "shots_off_target": 0.392, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2362, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "assist_rate": 0.0467, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.121, "total_shots": 0.513, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 7.3474, "accurate_pass": 3.1489, "duels_won": 5.2481, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1489, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1489, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1985, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.5955, "possession_lost": 5.2481, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1985, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0307, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0618, "goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "shots_on_target": 0.2531, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "key_pass": 0.3677, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 25.21, "total_pass": 9.8196, "accurate_pass": 8.0361, "duels_won": 1.5333, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1707, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2739, "crosses_total": 1.6499, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.86, "possession_lost": 5.6356, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.0941, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.5821, "won_contest": 0.5821, "ball_recovery": 1.1103, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3157, "fouls_drawn": 0.2362, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2362, "tackles_won": 0.715, "tackles": 0.715, "clearances": 0.5141, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4016, "xgot": 0.0376, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.5001, "total_progression": 57.3576, "progressive_carries": 2.3316, "shots_off_target": 0.5217 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0307, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.2 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.074, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4201, "xgot": 0.0393, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7996, "total_progression": 60.0004, "progressive_carries": 2.439, "shots_off_target": 0.5457, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 25.21, "minutes_scale": 1.0461, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.074, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4201, "xgot": 0.0393, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7996, "total_progression": 60.0004, "progressive_carries": 2.439, "shots_off_target": 0.5457, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.074, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4201, "xgot": 0.0393, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7996, "total_progression": 60.0004, "progressive_carries": 2.439, "shots_off_target": 0.5457, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.1254, xG scale 1.0672, xA scale 1.0672, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.074, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4201, "xgot": 0.0255, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7996, "total_progression": 60.0004, "progressive_carries": 2.439, "shots_off_target": 0.5457, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.082, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7648, "team_expected_assists": 0.8162, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6796, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0672, "xa_scale": 1.0672, "opponent_lambda": 1.733, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0646, "after": 0.0419 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0299, "after": 0.0194 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.074, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4201, "xgot": 0.0255, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7996, "total_progression": 60.0004, "progressive_carries": 2.439, "shots_off_target": 0.5457, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.082, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2993, "fifa_rank": 1477.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.074, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, 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"eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.4258, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4258, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1478 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.074, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4201, "xgot": 0.0255, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7996, "total_progression": 60.0004, "progressive_carries": 2.439, "shots_off_target": 0.5457, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0405, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0191, "finishing_factor": 1.082, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, 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"source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goals": 0.07, "goal_rate": 0.07, "shots_on_target": 0.2475, "total_shots": 0.6634, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.3364, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 24.23, "total_pass": 8.3883, "accurate_pass": 6.9202, "duels_won": 0.3895, "total_long_balls": 0.4608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9376, "crosses_total": 1.7594, "crosses_accurate": 0.0981, "touches": 12.9247, "possession_lost": 4.5004, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 0.9632, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.197, "won_contest": 0.0525, "ball_recovery": 0.8929, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2442, "fouls_drawn": 0.1655, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0451, "tackles_won": 0.1185, "tackles": 0.1185, "clearances": 0.284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.017, "xgot": 0.0211, "offsides": 0.1289, "ball_carries": 5.1905, "total_progression": 19.3597, "progressive_carries": 0.7327, "shots_off_target": 0.4159 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0064, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0024)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goals": 0.0698, "goal_rate": 0.0698, "shots_on_target": 0.2469, "total_shots": 0.6618, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.3364, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 24.23, "total_pass": 8.3883, "accurate_pass": 6.9202, "duels_won": 0.3895, "total_long_balls": 0.4608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9376, "crosses_total": 1.76, "crosses_accurate": 0.0981, "touches": 12.9247, "possession_lost": 4.5004, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 0.9632, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.197, "won_contest": 0.0525, "ball_recovery": 0.8929, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2452, "fouls_drawn": 0.1651, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.045, "tackles_won": 0.1182, "tackles": 0.1185, "clearances": 0.284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.017, "xgot": 0.0211, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 5.1905, "total_progression": 19.3597, "progressive_carries": 0.7327, "shots_off_target": 0.4159 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2692, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.2 to 29.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0741, "goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0256, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 29.38, "projection_minutes": 24.23, "minutes_scale": 1.2125, "appearance_probability": 0.737 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0741, "goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0256, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0741, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0256, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.1254, xG scale 1.0672, xA scale 1.0672, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0201, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0846, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7648, "team_expected_assists": 0.8162, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6796, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0672, "xa_scale": 1.0672, "opponent_lambda": 1.733, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.737 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0741, "after": 0.0583 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0337, "after": 0.0265 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0201, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0846, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3150, "fifa_rank": 1443.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0201, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0561, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0846, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0561, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "scorer_weight": 0.0632, "squad_weight_total": 1.165, "weight_share": 0.0543, "finishing_factor": 1.0846, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.4258, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4258, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1478 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0201, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0561, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "finishing_factor": 1.0846, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0212, "squad_weight_total": 0.7435, "weight_share": 0.0285, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Granit Xhaka", "weight": 0.1367, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1367, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1343, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Chemsdine Talbi": { "player_id": 1142675, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 175, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0201, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 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"importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2732 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0573, "total": 0.3343, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.502539 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.079476 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.065946 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.044105 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.035202 } ], "others_margin": -0.158529 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.641336441040039, "model_output": 6.6413, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0654 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0248, "total": 6.6413, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065438 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032501 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012118 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010803 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010604 } ], "others_margin": -0.02477 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goals": 0.07, "goal_rate": 0.07, "shots_on_target": 0.2475, "total_shots": 0.6634, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.3364, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 24.23, "total_pass": 8.3883, "accurate_pass": 6.9202, "duels_won": 0.3895, "total_long_balls": 0.4608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9376, "crosses_total": 1.7594, "crosses_accurate": 0.0981, "touches": 12.9247, "possession_lost": 4.5004, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 0.9632, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.197, "won_contest": 0.0525, "ball_recovery": 0.8929, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2442, "fouls_drawn": 0.1655, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0451, "tackles_won": 0.1185, "tackles": 0.1185, "clearances": 0.284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.017, "xgot": 0.0211, "offsides": 0.1289, "ball_carries": 5.1905, "total_progression": 19.3597, "progressive_carries": 0.7327, "shots_off_target": 0.4159 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0064, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0024)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goals": 0.0698, "goal_rate": 0.0698, "shots_on_target": 0.2469, "total_shots": 0.6618, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.3364, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 24.23, "total_pass": 8.3883, "accurate_pass": 6.9202, "duels_won": 0.3895, "total_long_balls": 0.4608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9376, "crosses_total": 1.76, "crosses_accurate": 0.0981, "touches": 12.9247, "possession_lost": 4.5004, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 0.9632, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.197, "won_contest": 0.0525, "ball_recovery": 0.8929, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2452, "fouls_drawn": 0.1651, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.045, "tackles_won": 0.1182, "tackles": 0.1185, "clearances": 0.284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.017, "xgot": 0.0211, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 5.1905, "total_progression": 19.3597, "progressive_carries": 0.7327, "shots_off_target": 0.4159 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2692, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.2 to 29.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0741, "goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0256, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 29.38, "projection_minutes": 24.23, "minutes_scale": 1.2125, "appearance_probability": 0.737 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0741, "goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0256, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0741, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0256, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.1254, xG scale 1.0672, xA scale 1.0672, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0201, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0846, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7648, "team_expected_assists": 0.8162, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6796, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0672, "xa_scale": 1.0672, "opponent_lambda": 1.733, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.737 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0741, "after": 0.0583 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0337, "after": 0.0265 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0201, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0846, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3150, "fifa_rank": 1443.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0201, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0561, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0846, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0561, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "scorer_weight": 0.0632, "squad_weight_total": 1.165, "weight_share": 0.0543, "finishing_factor": 1.0846, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.4258, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4258, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1478 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goal_rate": 0.0846, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2994, "total_shots": 0.8037, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 10.1712, "accurate_pass": 8.3911, "duels_won": 0.4723, "total_long_balls": 0.5587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4541, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7745, "crosses_total": 2.1341, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 15.6718, "possession_lost": 5.4569, "dispossessed": 0.2849, "duels_lost": 1.1679, "aerial_lost": 0.0807, "total_contest": 0.2389, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 1.0827, "challenges_lost": 0.209, "fouls": 0.2973, "fouls_drawn": 0.2002, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0546, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1437, "clearances": 0.3444, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0201, "offsides": 0.1302, "ball_carries": 6.2937, "total_progression": 23.4745, "progressive_carries": 0.8884, "shots_off_target": 0.5043, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0561, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "finishing_factor": 1.0846, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.026, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0212, "squad_weight_total": 0.7435, "weight_share": 0.0285, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Granit Xhaka", "weight": 0.1367, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1367, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1343, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Habib Diarra": { "player_id": 1128532, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 179, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, 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"importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4564 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1017 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.066 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0182 } ], "others": 0.0599, "total": 0.5621, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.456416 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.101683 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.065998 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.027594 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018163 } ], "others_margin": 0.059788 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6438751220703125, "model_output": 6.6439, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0597 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0482 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0399, "total": 6.6439, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059736 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.048219 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037796 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.019651 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008195 } ], "others_margin": -0.039933 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0134, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4077, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assists": 0.0665, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "expected_goals": 0.0602, "goals": 0.0548, "goal_rate": 0.0548, "shots_on_target": 0.2239, "total_shots": 0.5696, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 20.34, "total_pass": 6.2091, "accurate_pass": 4.9613, "duels_won": 0.6889, "total_long_balls": 0.3674, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1961, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4046, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2364, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7249, "crosses_total": 0.7916, "crosses_accurate": 0.1755, "touches": 9.6703, "possession_lost": 2.6574, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.7314, "aerial_won": 0.2462, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0539, "tackles_won": 0.0539, "tackles": 0.1713, "clearances": 0.1269, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.373, "fouls_drawn": 0.2714, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2308, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8315, "total_progression": 13.7443, "progressive_carries": 0.5244, "shots_off_target": 0.3457 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0134, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4077, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assists": 0.068, "assist_rate": 0.068, "expected_goals": 0.0602, "goals": 0.0547, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "shots_on_target": 0.2234, "total_shots": 0.5699, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 20.34, "total_pass": 6.2091, "accurate_pass": 4.9613, "duels_won": 0.6889, "total_long_balls": 0.3674, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1961, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4046, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2364, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8045, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7249, "crosses_total": 0.7898, "crosses_accurate": 0.1755, "touches": 9.6703, "possession_lost": 2.6574, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.7314, "aerial_won": 0.2462, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0538, "tackles_won": 0.0538, "tackles": 0.1713, "clearances": 0.1269, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3739, "fouls_drawn": 0.2708, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2308, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8315, "total_progression": 13.7443, "progressive_carries": 0.5244, "shots_off_target": 0.3457 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.226, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.3 to 18.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.033, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "shots_on_target": 0.2056, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.3182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.72, "projection_minutes": 20.34, "minutes_scale": 0.9204, "appearance_probability": 0.718 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.033, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "shots_on_target": 0.2056, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.3182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2056, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.3182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.1254, xG scale 1.0672, xA scale 1.0672, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2056, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.3182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9516, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7648, "team_expected_assists": 0.8162, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6796, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0672, "xa_scale": 1.0672, "opponent_lambda": 1.733, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.718 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0554, "after": 0.0425 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.033, "after": 0.0253 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2056, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.3182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9516, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3071, "fifa_rank": 1436.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2056, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 5.7146, "accurate_pass": 4.5662, "duels_won": 0.634, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1805, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2927, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1379, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4282, "crosses_total": 0.7269, "crosses_accurate": 0.1615, "touches": 8.9001, "possession_lost": 2.4457, "dispossessed": 0.4094, "duels_lost": 1.5935, "aerial_won": 0.2266, "aerial_lost": 0.5394, "interceptions": 0.0495, "tackles_won": 0.0495, "tackles": 0.1577, "clearances": 0.1168, "total_contest": 0.2585, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.3441, "fouls_drawn": 0.2492, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2124, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.606, "total_progression": 12.6496, "progressive_carries": 0.4826, "shots_off_target": 0.3182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0413, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9516, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "scorer_weight": 0.0404, "squad_weight_total": 1.165, 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"name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1005 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3514 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1185 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1104 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0797 } ], "others": 0.2761, "total": 2.2513, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.954371 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.236817 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.068692 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.060028 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.041173 } ], "others_margin": 0.130803 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.1622159481048584, "model_output": 1.1622, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7548 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.195 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0605 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0601 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": 0.0558 } ], "others": 0.1759, "total": 1.1622, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.800904 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.275438 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.072012 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.066761 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": 0.05823 } ], "others_margin": 0.164197 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20261311531066895, "model_output": 0.2026, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2426 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0206, "total": 0.2026, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.242587 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02194 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.019656 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.015685 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010493 } ], "others_margin": -0.02063 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.674383163452148, "model_output": 6.6744, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0234, "total": 6.6744, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "error_severity", "margin": -0.030194 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025038 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018197 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.017319 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010291 } ], "others_margin": -0.02336 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.529)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4614, "tackles": 0.4293, "tackles_won": 0.2449, "clearances": 2.2534, "aerial_won": 1.1633, "total_shots": 0.2028, "rating": 6.6744, "minutes": 26.86, "total_pass": 22.6783, "accurate_pass": 19.4597, "duels_won": 1.5631, "total_long_balls": 3.383, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2732, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6478, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5389, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9207, "crosses_total": 0.2812, "crosses_accurate": 0.2812, "touches": 27.3113, "possession_lost": 3.8888, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4483, "aerial_lost": 1.4483, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7206, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.389, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2812, "assist_rate": 0.2812, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1433, "total_progression": 40.0255, "progressive_carries": 0.541, "key_pass": 0.2812, "shots_off_target": 0.2028 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10600000, "quality_factor": 0.5295, "boost_factor": 1.0009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0015)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4607, "tackles": 0.4293, "tackles_won": 0.2445, "clearances": 2.2534, "aerial_won": 1.1633, "total_shots": 0.2025, "rating": 6.6744, "minutes": 26.86, "total_pass": 22.6783, "accurate_pass": 19.4597, "duels_won": 1.5631, "total_long_balls": 3.383, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2732, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6478, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5389, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9207, "crosses_total": 0.2808, "crosses_accurate": 0.2812, "touches": 27.3113, "possession_lost": 3.8888, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4483, "aerial_lost": 1.4483, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7206, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.389, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2808, "assist_rate": 0.2808, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1433, "total_progression": 40.0255, "progressive_carries": 0.541, "key_pass": 0.2812, "shots_off_target": 0.2028 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0015, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2984, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.9 to 19.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 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29.0133, "progressive_carries": 0.3922, "key_pass": 0.2038, "shots_off_target": 0.147, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.47 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.47, "projection_minutes": 26.86, "minutes_scale": 0.7249, "appearance_probability": 0.609 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3339, "tackles": 0.3112, "tackles_won": 0.1772, "clearances": 1.6334, "aerial_won": 0.8432, "total_shots": 0.147, "rating": 6.6744, "minutes": 19.47, "total_pass": 16.4388, "accurate_pass": 14.1057, "duels_won": 1.133, "total_long_balls": 2.4522, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9229, "total_own_half_passes": 10.6177, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8139, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2917, "crosses_total": 0.2035, "crosses_accurate": 0.2035, "touches": 19.7971, "possession_lost": 2.8189, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0498, "aerial_lost": 1.4483, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2472, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.282, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2035, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6277, "total_progression": 29.0133, "progressive_carries": 0.3922, "key_pass": 0.2038, "shots_off_target": 0.147, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.47 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3339, "tackles": 0.3112, "tackles_won": 0.1772, "clearances": 1.6334, "aerial_won": 0.8432, "total_shots": 0.147, "rating": 6.6744, "minutes": 19.47, "total_pass": 16.4388, "accurate_pass": 14.1057, "duels_won": 1.133, "total_long_balls": 2.4522, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9229, "total_own_half_passes": 10.6177, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8139, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2917, "crosses_total": 0.2035, "crosses_accurate": 0.2035, "touches": 19.7971, "possession_lost": 2.8189, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0498, "aerial_lost": 1.4483, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2472, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.282, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6277, "total_progression": 29.0133, "progressive_carries": 0.3922, "key_pass": 0.2038, "shots_off_target": 0.147, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.47, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.1254, xG scale 1.0672, xA scale 1.0672, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3339, "tackles": 0.3112, "tackles_won": 0.1772, "clearances": 1.6334, "aerial_won": 0.8432, "total_shots": 0.147, "rating": 6.6744, "minutes": 19.47, "total_pass": 16.4388, "accurate_pass": 14.1057, "duels_won": 1.133, "total_long_balls": 2.4522, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9229, "total_own_half_passes": 10.6177, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8139, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2917, "crosses_total": 0.2035, "crosses_accurate": 0.2035, "touches": 19.7971, "possession_lost": 2.8189, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0498, "aerial_lost": 1.4483, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2472, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.282, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6277, "total_progression": 29.0133, "progressive_carries": 0.3922, "key_pass": 0.2038, "shots_off_target": 0.147, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.47, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7648, "team_expected_assists": 0.8162, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6796, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0672, "xa_scale": 1.0672, "opponent_lambda": 1.733, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.609 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0272, "after": 0.0177 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.475455 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.090625 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.07251 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059603 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.03932 } ], "others_margin": -0.003148 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.698849678039551, "model_output": 6.6988, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.065 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0062, "total": 6.6988, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.064992 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016456 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01404 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011966 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.011181 } ], "others_margin": -0.006291 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0307, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0618, "goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "shots_on_target": 0.2531, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "key_pass": 0.3677, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 25.21, "total_pass": 9.8196, "accurate_pass": 8.0361, "duels_won": 1.5333, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1707, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2739, "crosses_total": 1.6499, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.86, "possession_lost": 5.6356, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.0941, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.5821, "won_contest": 0.5821, "ball_recovery": 1.1103, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3157, "fouls_drawn": 0.2362, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2362, "tackles_won": 0.715, "tackles": 0.715, "clearances": 0.5141, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4016, "xgot": 0.0376, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.5001, "total_progression": 57.3576, "progressive_carries": 2.3316, "shots_off_target": 0.5217 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0307, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.2 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.074, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4201, "xgot": 0.0393, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7996, "total_progression": 60.0004, "progressive_carries": 2.439, "shots_off_target": 0.5457, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 25.21, "minutes_scale": 1.0461, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.074, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4201, "xgot": 0.0393, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7996, "total_progression": 60.0004, "progressive_carries": 2.439, "shots_off_target": 0.5457, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.074, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4201, "xgot": 0.0393, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7996, "total_progression": 60.0004, "progressive_carries": 2.439, "shots_off_target": 0.5457, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.1254, xG scale 1.0672, xA scale 1.0672, team xA 0.82 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.074, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4201, "xgot": 0.0255, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7996, "total_progression": 60.0004, "progressive_carries": 2.439, "shots_off_target": 0.5457, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.082, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.201, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1254, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7648, "team_expected_assists": 0.8162, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6796, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0672, "xa_scale": 1.0672, "opponent_lambda": 1.733, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0646, "after": 0.0419 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0299, "after": 0.0194 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.074, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4201, "xgot": 0.0255, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.074, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, 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"eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.4258, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4258, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1478 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.074, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.8105, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 10.2721, "accurate_pass": 8.4064, "duels_won": 1.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.4256, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1786, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4683, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5169, "crosses_total": 1.7259, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6829, "possession_lost": 5.8953, "dispossessed": 0.7784, "duels_lost": 1.1445, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6089, "won_contest": 0.6089, "ball_recovery": 1.1615, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.2471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2471, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "tackles": 0.7479, "clearances": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4201, "xgot": 0.0255, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7996, "total_progression": 60.0004, "progressive_carries": 2.439, "shots_off_target": 0.5457, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.179, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0405, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0191, "finishing_factor": 1.082, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, 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"league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023928.0, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.3847 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929.0, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004.0, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 38, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 1.0149 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 68, "combined_rank_score": 78.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 21.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 136.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.998, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Emiliano Martínez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Max Weiss", "ranking": 63 }, { "player_name": "Paul Villero", "ranking": 64 }, { "player_name": "Cucurella", "ranking": 65 }, { "player_name": "Julián Alvarez", "ranking": 66 }, { "player_name": "Jamshid Iskandarov", "ranking": 67 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cole Palmer", "ranking": 69 }, { "player_name": "David Raya", "ranking": 70 }, { "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking": 71 }, { "player_name": "Kevin De Bruyne", "ranking": 72 }, { "player_name": "Silva Denisson", "ranking": 73 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], 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2.6962, "possession_lost": 11.3389, "duels_won": 0.9175, "duels_lost": 0.0016, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5349, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9444 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 8.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-15", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 17.9444, "accurateLongBalls": 5.947, "possessionLostCtrl": 11.3389, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.3775, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.3474, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7763 }, 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{ "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.007971 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.007539 } ], "others_margin": 0.011957 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.11046502739191055, "model_output": -0.1105, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0237, "total": -0.1105, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.032296 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.019133 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.018786 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.013303 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.012609 } ], "others_margin": -0.023622 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9980082511901855, "model_output": 6.998, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 6.998, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.020388 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019792 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.016917 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.015321 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.010291 } ], "others_margin": -0.007335 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0004, quality 0.518)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1364, "goals_prevented": -0.1105, "rating": 6.998, "minutes": 87.65, "total_pass": 33.9671, "accurate_pass": 22.7762, "total_long_balls": 16.9531, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9494, "touches": 45.1889, "clearances": 0.4476, "ball_recovery": 9.3346, "high_claims": 1.9247, "punches": 0.136, "aerial_won": 0.5483, "sweeper_actions": 0.7882, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7765, "saves_inside_box": 2.6973, "possession_lost": 11.3434, "duels_won": 0.9179, "duels_lost": 0.0016, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5351, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9516 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9600000, "quality_factor": 0.5177, "boost_factor": 1.0004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0050)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1402, "goals_prevented": -0.1105, "rating": 6.998, "minutes": 87.65, "total_pass": 33.9671, "accurate_pass": 22.7762, "total_long_balls": 16.9531, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9494, "touches": 45.1889, "clearances": 0.4476, "ball_recovery": 9.3346, "high_claims": 1.9247, "punches": 0.136, "aerial_won": 0.5483, "sweeper_actions": 0.7882, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7765, "saves_inside_box": 2.6973, "possession_lost": 11.3434, "duels_won": 0.9179, "duels_lost": 0.0016, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5422, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9516 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.005, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9739, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.5351, "after": 0.5422 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.1402, "goals_prevented": -0.1105, "rating": 6.998, "minutes": 87.65, "total_pass": 33.9671, "accurate_pass": 22.7762, "total_long_balls": 16.9531, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9494, "touches": 45.1889, "clearances": 0.4476, "ball_recovery": 9.3346, "high_claims": 1.9247, "punches": 0.136, "aerial_won": 0.5483, "sweeper_actions": 0.7882, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7765, "saves_inside_box": 2.6973, "possession_lost": 11.3434, "duels_won": 0.9179, "duels_lost": 0.0016, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5422, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9516 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1402, "goals_prevented": -0.1105, "rating": 6.998, "minutes": 87.65, "total_pass": 33.9671, "accurate_pass": 22.7762, "total_long_balls": 16.9531, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9494, "touches": 45.1889, "clearances": 0.4476, "ball_recovery": 9.3346, "high_claims": 1.9247, "punches": 0.136, "aerial_won": 0.5483, "sweeper_actions": 0.7882, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7765, "saves_inside_box": 2.6973, "possession_lost": 11.3434, "duels_won": 0.9179, "duels_lost": 0.0016, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5422, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9516, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3881, "shots_faced": 13.2, "expected_saves": 3.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.11, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Enzo Le Fée", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Enzo Le Fée", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.3881 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.1402, "goals_prevented": -0.1105, "rating": 6.998, "minutes": 87.65, "total_pass": 33.9671, "accurate_pass": 22.7762, "total_long_balls": 16.9531, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9494, "touches": 45.1889, "clearances": 0.4476, "ball_recovery": 9.3346, "high_claims": 1.9247, "punches": 0.136, "aerial_won": 0.5483, "sweeper_actions": 0.7882, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7765, "saves_inside_box": 2.6973, "possession_lost": 11.3434, "duels_won": 0.9179, "duels_lost": 0.0016, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5422, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9516, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3881, "shots_faced": 13.2, "expected_saves": 3.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.11, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Enzo Le Fée", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.3618, xG scale 1.2726, xA scale 1.5089, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1402, "goals_prevented": -0.1105, "rating": 6.998, "minutes": 87.65, "total_pass": 33.9671, "accurate_pass": 22.7762, "total_long_balls": 16.9531, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9494, "touches": 45.1889, "clearances": 0.4476, "ball_recovery": 9.3346, "high_claims": 1.9247, "punches": 0.136, "aerial_won": 0.5483, "sweeper_actions": 0.7882, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7765, "saves_inside_box": 2.6973, "possession_lost": 11.3434, "duels_won": 0.9179, "duels_lost": 0.0016, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5422, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9516, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3881, "shots_faced": 11.4, "expected_saves": 2.79, "high_pressure_saves": 0.96, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Enzo Le Fée", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.733, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3618, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7465, "team_expected_assists": 1.1265, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2726, "xa_scale": 1.5089, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 13.2, "after": 11.4 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.23, "after": 2.79 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.11, "after": 0.96 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1402, "goals_prevented": -0.1105, "rating": 6.998, "minutes": 87.65, "total_pass": 33.9671, "accurate_pass": 22.7762, "total_long_balls": 16.9531, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9494, "touches": 45.1889, "clearances": 0.4476, "ball_recovery": 9.3346, "high_claims": 1.9247, "punches": 0.136, "aerial_won": 0.5483, "sweeper_actions": 0.7882, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7765, "saves_inside_box": 2.6973, "possession_lost": 11.3434, "duels_won": 0.9179, "duels_lost": 0.0016, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5422, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9516, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3881, "shots_faced": 11.4, "expected_saves": 2.79, "high_pressure_saves": 0.96, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Enzo Le Fée", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1945, "after": 1.1788 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9551, "tackles": 1.2041, "tackles_won": 0.7729, "clearances": 5.7135, "aerial_won": 2.4827, "total_shots": 0.3855, "rating": 6.8174, "minutes": 88.94, "total_pass": 60.568, "accurate_pass": 53.7746, "duels_won": 4.861, "total_long_balls": 4.5747, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2257, "total_own_half_passes": 41.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.2084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6033, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5662, "crosses_total": 0.0436, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.4053, "possession_lost": 7.3601, "dispossessed": 0.0525, "duels_lost": 2.8397, "aerial_lost": 1.5072, "total_contest": 0.0618, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 3.4599, "challenges_lost": 0.0855, "fouls": 1.1788, "fouls_drawn": 0.5161, "blocks": 0.8407, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, 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"opponent_faced": "Dayann Methalie", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9551, "tackles": 1.2041, "tackles_won": 0.7729, "clearances": 5.7135, "aerial_won": 2.4827, "total_shots": 0.3855, "rating": 6.8174, "minutes": 88.94, "total_pass": 60.568, "accurate_pass": 53.7746, "duels_won": 4.861, "total_long_balls": 4.5747, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2257, "total_own_half_passes": 41.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.2084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6033, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5662, "crosses_total": 0.0436, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.4053, "possession_lost": 7.3601, "dispossessed": 0.0525, "duels_lost": 2.8397, "aerial_lost": 1.5072, "total_contest": 0.0618, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 3.4599, "challenges_lost": 0.0855, "fouls": 1.1788, "fouls_drawn": 0.5161, "blocks": 0.8407, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0008, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.0992, "total_progression": 58.7539, "progressive_carries": 0.6317, "key_pass": 0.2781, "shots_off_target": 0.3813, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.608, "opponent_faced": "Dayann Methalie", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.3618, xG scale 1.2726, xA scale 1.5089, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9551, "tackles": 1.2041, "tackles_won": 0.7729, "clearances": 5.7135, "aerial_won": 2.4827, "total_shots": 0.3855, "rating": 6.8174, "minutes": 88.94, "total_pass": 60.568, "accurate_pass": 53.7746, "duels_won": 4.861, "total_long_balls": 4.5747, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2257, "total_own_half_passes": 41.9648, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.2084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6033, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5662, "crosses_total": 0.0436, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.4053, "possession_lost": 7.3601, "dispossessed": 0.0525, "duels_lost": 2.8397, "aerial_lost": 1.5072, "total_contest": 0.0618, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 3.4599, "challenges_lost": 0.0855, "fouls": 1.1788, "fouls_drawn": 0.5161, "blocks": 0.8407, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, 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"totalShots", "margin": -0.12311 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.04715 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020862 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012413 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.0071 } ], "others_margin": -0.044155 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.751579284667969, "model_output": 6.7516, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 6.7516, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017986 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.017621 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016446 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015071 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010326 } ], "others_margin": -0.004993 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.813)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0013, "tackles": 1.996, "tackles_won": 1.2483, "clearances": 2.6948, "aerial_won": 0.9971, "total_shots": 0.3253, "rating": 6.7516, "minutes": 74.12, "total_pass": 32.2478, "accurate_pass": 28.6199, "duels_won": 3.8704, "total_long_balls": 1.7897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.39, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6697, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9502, "crosses_total": 0.0393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7079, "possession_lost": 7.0281, "dispossessed": 0.2966, "duels_lost": 3.1088, "aerial_lost": 1.2503, "total_contest": 1.0055, "won_contest": 0.6343, "ball_recovery": 2.7917, "challenges_lost": 0.5472, "fouls": 0.6436, "fouls_drawn": 0.1883, "blocks": 0.5017, "goals": 0.0, 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9955, "tackles": 1.996, "tackles_won": 1.2398, "clearances": 2.6948, "aerial_won": 0.9971, "total_shots": 0.327, "rating": 6.7516, "minutes": 74.12, "total_pass": 32.2478, "accurate_pass": 28.6199, "duels_won": 3.8704, "total_long_balls": 1.7897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.39, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6697, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9502, "crosses_total": 0.0389, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7079, "possession_lost": 7.0281, "dispossessed": 0.2966, "duels_lost": 3.1088, "aerial_lost": 1.2503, "total_contest": 1.0055, "won_contest": 0.6343, "ball_recovery": 2.7917, "challenges_lost": 0.5472, "fouls": 0.6364, "fouls_drawn": 0.197, "blocks": 0.5017, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.186, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0018, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.487, "total_progression": 27.2406, "progressive_carries": 1.0393, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.3253, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.3618, xG scale 1.2726, xA scale 1.5089, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9955, "tackles": 1.996, "tackles_won": 1.2398, "clearances": 2.6948, "aerial_won": 0.9971, "total_shots": 0.327, "rating": 6.7516, "minutes": 74.12, "total_pass": 32.2478, "accurate_pass": 28.6199, "duels_won": 3.8704, "total_long_balls": 1.7897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.39, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6697, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9502, "crosses_total": 0.0389, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7079, "possession_lost": 7.0281, "dispossessed": 0.2966, "duels_lost": 3.1088, "aerial_lost": 1.2503, "total_contest": 1.0055, "won_contest": 0.6343, "ball_recovery": 2.7917, "challenges_lost": 0.5472, "fouls": 0.6364, "fouls_drawn": 0.197, "blocks": 0.5017, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.186, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0023, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.487, "total_progression": 27.2406, "progressive_carries": 1.0393, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.3253, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9653, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.733, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3618, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7465, "team_expected_assists": 1.1265, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2726, "xa_scale": 1.5089, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0336, "after": 0.0507 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9955, "tackles": 1.996, "tackles_won": 1.2398, "clearances": 2.6948, "aerial_won": 0.9971, "total_shots": 0.327, "rating": 6.7516, "minutes": 74.12, "total_pass": 32.2478, "accurate_pass": 28.6199, "duels_won": 3.8704, "total_long_balls": 1.7897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.39, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6697, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9502, "crosses_total": 0.0389, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7079, "possession_lost": 7.0281, "dispossessed": 0.2966, "duels_lost": 3.1088, "aerial_lost": 1.2503, "total_contest": 1.0055, "won_contest": 0.6343, "ball_recovery": 2.7917, "challenges_lost": 0.5472, "fouls": 0.6364, "fouls_drawn": 0.197, "blocks": 0.5017, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.186, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0023, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "shots_on_target": 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contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.3618, xG scale 1.2726, xA scale 1.5089, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2825, "tackles": 1.4007, "tackles_won": 0.8279, "clearances": 5.0457, "aerial_won": 2.0546, "total_shots": 0.5608, "rating": 6.9523, "minutes": 80.59, "total_pass": 53.752, "accurate_pass": 48.9261, "duels_won": 4.9351, "total_long_balls": 3.0349, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.0492, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4364, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.877, "crosses_total": 0.1109, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.3619, "possession_lost": 6.7372, "dispossessed": 0.5598, "duels_lost": 2.9424, "aerial_lost": 1.0714, "total_contest": 0.4793, "won_contest": 0.3574, "ball_recovery": 3.5516, "challenges_lost": 0.1357, "fouls": 1.0489, "fouls_drawn": 1.3213, "blocks": 0.6987, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 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"log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.117406 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.107941 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.071218 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.052015 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.033629 } ], "others_margin": -0.060994 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5262641906738281, "model_output": 0.5263, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0613 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0167, "total": 0.5263, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061252 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024812 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018916 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.016878 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010459 } ], "others_margin": -0.01676 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8074798583984375, "model_output": 6.8075, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalPass", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0111, quality 0.861)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3098, "tackles": 1.5509, "tackles_won": 0.9113, "clearances": 6.2445, "aerial_won": 1.9095, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.8075, "minutes": 88.24, "total_pass": 45.1827, "accurate_pass": 40.494, "duels_won": 4.621, "total_long_balls": 3.4525, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8247, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5812, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.0855, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6015, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4084, "crosses_total": 0.0125, "crosses_accurate": 0.0027, "touches": 59.6858, "possession_lost": 5.6107, "dispossessed": 0.1335, "duels_lost": 3.1906, "aerial_lost": 1.667, "total_contest": 0.2267, "won_contest": 0.219, "ball_recovery": 2.9206, "challenges_lost": 0.502, "fouls": 0.8862, "fouls_drawn": 0.4557, "blocks": 0.6116, "goals": 0.0139, 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"home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9622, "expected_assists": 0.1024, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023928.0, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0489, "expected_assists": 0.2656, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 122, "combined_rank_score": 113.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 18.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.2, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 209.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0978, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Morgan Rogers", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matías Zaldivia", "ranking": 117 }, { "player_name": "Adrián de la Fuente", "ranking": 118 }, { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 119 }, { "player_name": "Marquinhos", "ranking": 120 }, { "player_name": "Jan Oblak", "ranking": 121 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joan García", "ranking": 123 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Henrique", "ranking": 124 }, { "player_name": "Jung Seung-bae", "ranking": 125 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Badolato", "ranking": 126 }, { "player_name": "João Neves", "ranking": 127 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 46, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0172 } ], "others": 0.044, "total": 0.2514, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.271426 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.214205 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116554 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.096549 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.086773 } ], "others_margin": 0.19228 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8503394722938538, "model_output": 0.8503, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1189 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1113 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0879 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0398 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0387 } ], "others": 0.1358, "total": 0.8503, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.317765 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.226909 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.148788 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.060736 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.055743 } ], "others_margin": 0.174026 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.2401297092437744, "model_output": 2.2401, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6139 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1788 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1207 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0924 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0655 } ], "others": 0.1839, "total": 2.2401, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.613922 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.178794 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.120657 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.09243 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.065478 } ], "others_margin": 0.183914 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.097841739654541, "model_output": 7.0978, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0912 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": 0.0695, "total": 7.0978, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.09121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.045223 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029321 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.02215 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017002 } ], "others_margin": 0.069535 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 46, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0115, quality 0.897)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6477, "expected_assists": 0.1388, "assists": 0.123, "assist_rate": 0.123, "expected_goals": 0.2344, "goals": 0.2543, "goal_rate": 0.2543, "shots_on_target": 0.8601, "total_shots": 2.2659, "rating": 7.0978, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 31.3515, "accurate_pass": 24.1088, "duels_won": 5.9867, "total_long_balls": 1.6446, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0756, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7704, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3384, "crosses_total": 1.5108, "crosses_accurate": 0.0679, "touches": 51.1, "possession_lost": 14.5581, "dispossessed": 1.5376, "duels_lost": 7.3198, "aerial_won": 1.0662, "aerial_lost": 2.8017, "interceptions": 0.1573, "tackles_won": 0.8106, "tackles": 1.6474, "clearances": 1.2013, "total_contest": 2.7958, "won_contest": 1.5122, "challenges_lost": 0.7082, "fouls": 1.1388, "fouls_drawn": 1.7763, "blocks": 0.0186, "big_chances_created": 0.2059, "big_chances_missed": 0.2096, "xgot": 0.2125, "ball_carries": 14.5163, "total_progression": 62.3307, "progressive_carries": 3.1419, "shots_off_target": 1.4058 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 115000000, "quality_factor": 0.8968, "boost_factor": 1.0115, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0081)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6477, "expected_assists": 0.1388, "assists": 0.1262, "assist_rate": 0.1262, "expected_goals": 0.2344, "goals": 0.2564, "goal_rate": 0.2564, "shots_on_target": 0.8574, "total_shots": 2.2727, "rating": 7.0978, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 31.3515, "accurate_pass": 24.1088, "duels_won": 5.9867, "total_long_balls": 1.6446, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0756, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7704, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3384, "crosses_total": 1.5111, "crosses_accurate": 0.0679, "touches": 51.1, "possession_lost": 14.5581, "dispossessed": 1.5376, "duels_lost": 7.3198, "aerial_won": 1.0662, "aerial_lost": 2.8017, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.8124, "tackles": 1.6474, "clearances": 1.2013, "total_contest": 2.7958, "won_contest": 1.5122, "challenges_lost": 0.7082, "fouls": 1.1421, "fouls_drawn": 1.7745, "blocks": 0.0186, "big_chances_created": 0.2059, "big_chances_missed": 0.2096, "xgot": 0.2125, "ball_carries": 14.5163, "total_progression": 62.3307, "progressive_carries": 3.1419, "shots_off_target": 1.4058 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0081, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.983, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2659, "after": 2.2727 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6477, "expected_assists": 0.1388, "assists": 0.1262, "assist_rate": 0.1262, "expected_goals": 0.2344, "goals": 0.2564, "goal_rate": 0.2564, "shots_on_target": 0.8574, "total_shots": 2.2727, "rating": 7.0978, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 31.3515, "accurate_pass": 24.1088, "duels_won": 5.9867, "total_long_balls": 1.6446, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0756, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7704, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3384, "crosses_total": 1.5111, "crosses_accurate": 0.0679, "touches": 51.1, "possession_lost": 14.5581, "dispossessed": 1.5376, "duels_lost": 7.3198, "aerial_won": 1.0662, "aerial_lost": 2.8017, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.8124, "tackles": 1.6474, "clearances": 1.2013, "total_contest": 2.7958, "won_contest": 1.5122, 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midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Chris Rigg", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.349, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1596, "skill_edge": 0.0606, "height_edge": 0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.8977, "defender_skill": 0.763, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "market_value": 42000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8221 }, { "player": "Chris Rigg", "market_value": 24000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.704 } ], "xg_override": 0.2718 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2727, "after": 2.6354 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4058, "after": 1.6302 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8574, "after": 0.9942 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.0662, 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midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.3618, xG scale 1.2726, xA scale 1.5089, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6477, "expected_assists": 0.2094, "assist_rate": 0.1262, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3459, "goal_rate": 0.2973, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9942, "total_shots": 2.6354, "rating": 7.0978, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 31.3515, "accurate_pass": 24.1088, "duels_won": 5.9867, "total_long_balls": 1.6446, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0756, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7704, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3384, "crosses_total": 1.5111, "crosses_accurate": 0.0679, 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0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0792, "creation_factor": 0.9333 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.733, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3618, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7465, "team_expected_assists": 1.1265, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2726, "xa_scale": 1.5089, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2718, "after": 0.3459 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1388, "after": 0.2094 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6477, "expected_assists": 0.2094, "assist_rate": 0.1262, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3459, "goal_rate": 0.2973, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9942, "total_shots": 2.6354, "rating": 7.0978, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 31.3515, "accurate_pass": 24.1088, "duels_won": 5.9867, "total_long_balls": 1.6446, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0756, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7704, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3384, "crosses_total": 1.5111, "crosses_accurate": 0.0679, "touches": 51.1, "possession_lost": 14.5581, "dispossessed": 1.5376, "duels_lost": 7.3198, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.8017, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.8124, "tackles": 1.6474, "clearances": 1.2013, "total_contest": 2.7958, "won_contest": 1.5122, "challenges_lost": 0.7082, "fouls": 1.1421, "fouls_drawn": 1.7745, "blocks": 0.0186, "big_chances_created": 0.2059, "big_chances_missed": 0.2431, "xgot": 0.3136, "ball_carries": 14.5163, "total_progression": 62.3307, "progressive_carries": 3.1419, "shots_off_target": 1.6302, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1596, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.349, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Chris Rigg", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Chris Rigg", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0792, "creation_factor": 0.9333, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 122, "fifa_rank": 209.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6477, "expected_assists": 0.2094, "assist_rate": 0.1262, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3459, "goal_rate": 0.2973, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9942, "total_shots": 2.6354, "rating": 7.0978, "minutes": 88.47, "total_pass": 31.3515, "accurate_pass": 24.1088, "duels_won": 5.9867, "total_long_balls": 1.6446, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0756, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7704, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3384, "crosses_total": 1.5111, "crosses_accurate": 0.0679, "touches": 51.1, "possession_lost": 14.5581, "dispossessed": 1.5376, "duels_lost": 7.3198, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 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"fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2924, "goal_rate": 0.2973, "scorer_weight": 0.3733, "squad_weight_total": 1.8217, "weight_share": 0.2049, "finishing_factor": 1.0792, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "João Pedro", "weight": 0.5557, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5557, "runner_up": "Cole Palmer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4173 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4173, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4173, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3733 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6477, "expected_assists": 0.2094, "assist_rate": 0.1262, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3459, 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.073934 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.036688 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031877 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.024692 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.021273 } ], "others_margin": -0.007796 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0146, quality 0.894)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7224, "expected_assists": 0.1631, "assists": 0.1579, "assist_rate": 0.1579, "expected_goals": 0.219, "goals": 0.2482, "goal_rate": 0.2482, "shots_on_target": 0.8618, "total_shots": 2.4641, "rating": 7.0381, "minutes": 87.35, "total_pass": 35.7041, "accurate_pass": 29.9418, "duels_won": 4.7964, "total_long_balls": 1.9308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8628, "total_own_half_passes": 11.548, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.7558, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.186, "crosses_total": 1.2248, "crosses_accurate": 0.2672, "touches": 55.1121, "possession_lost": 13.1518, "dispossessed": 1.7088, "duels_lost": 5.3612, "aerial_won": 0.3319, "aerial_lost": 0.2573, "interceptions": 0.707, "tackles_won": 0.6234, "tackles": 1.2517, "clearances": 0.1382, "total_contest": 3.1488, "won_contest": 1.28, "challenges_lost": 0.398, "fouls": 1.1314, "fouls_drawn": 1.9327, "blocks": 0.2327, "big_chances_created": 0.4853, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.2559, "ball_carries": 20.6114, "total_progression": 101.0646, "progressive_carries": 4.0538, "shots_off_target": 1.6023 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 101000000, "quality_factor": 0.8936, "boost_factor": 1.0146, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0103)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7224, "expected_assists": 0.1631, "assists": 0.1615, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "expected_goals": 0.219, "goals": 0.2562, "goal_rate": 0.2562, "shots_on_target": 0.8686, "total_shots": 2.4858, "rating": 7.0381, "minutes": 87.35, "total_pass": 35.7041, "accurate_pass": 29.9418, "duels_won": 4.7964, "total_long_balls": 1.9308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8628, "total_own_half_passes": 11.548, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.7558, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.186, "crosses_total": 1.228, "crosses_accurate": 0.2672, "touches": 55.1121, "possession_lost": 13.1518, "dispossessed": 1.7088, "duels_lost": 5.3612, "aerial_won": 0.3319, "aerial_lost": 0.2573, "interceptions": 0.705, "tackles_won": 0.6222, "tackles": 1.2517, "clearances": 0.1382, "total_contest": 3.1488, "won_contest": 1.28, "challenges_lost": 0.398, "fouls": 1.125, "fouls_drawn": 1.9286, "blocks": 0.2327, "big_chances_created": 0.4853, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.2559, "ball_carries": 20.6114, "total_progression": 101.0646, "progressive_carries": 4.0538, "shots_off_target": 1.6023 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0103, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9706, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", 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"numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Reinildo Mandava", "opponent_faced": "Reinildo Mandava", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Reinildo Mandava", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.689, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.3078, "skill_edge": 0.1894, "height_edge": 0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.8936, "defender_skill": 0.4727, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Reinildo Mandava", "market_value": 4099999, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4727 } ], "xg_override": 0.2864 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3319, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4858, "after": 3.2509 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.6023, "after": 2.0955 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8686, "after": 1.136 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2562, "after": 0.3351 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2559, "after": 0.3347 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.219, "after": 0.2864 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1256, "after": 0.1643 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7224, "expected_assists": 0.1631, "assist_rate": 0.1615, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2864, "goal_rate": 0.3351, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.136, "total_shots": 3.2509, "rating": 7.0381, "minutes": 87.35, "total_pass": 35.7041, "accurate_pass": 29.9418, "duels_won": 4.7964, "total_long_balls": 1.9308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8628, "total_own_half_passes": 11.548, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.7558, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1561, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.186, "crosses_total": 1.228, "crosses_accurate": 0.2672, "touches": 55.1121, "possession_lost": 13.1518, "dispossessed": 1.7088, "duels_lost": 5.3612, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.2573, "interceptions": 0.705, "tackles_won": 0.6222, "tackles": 1.2517, "clearances": 0.1382, "total_contest": 3.1488, "won_contest": 1.28, "challenges_lost": 0.398, "fouls": 1.125, "fouls_drawn": 1.9286, "blocks": 0.2327, "big_chances_created": 0.4853, "big_chances_missed": 0.1643, "xgot": 0.3347, "ball_carries": 20.6114, "total_progression": 101.0646, "progressive_carries": 4.0538, "shots_off_target": 2.0955, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.3078, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.689, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Reinildo Mandava", "opponent_faced": "Reinildo Mandava", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1638 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0946 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.045 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0416 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0285 } ], "others": -0.0882, "total": 0.9978, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.163816 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.094648 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.044992 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041571 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.0285 } ], "others_margin": -0.088191 } }, { "target": 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"shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.009 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0203, "total": 6.849, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033961 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011964 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010752 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.009033 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.008261 } ], "others_margin": -0.020381 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4353, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "assists": 0.0563, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "expected_goals": 0.0488, "goals": 0.058, "goal_rate": 0.058, "shots_on_target": 0.14, "total_shots": 0.5631, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 71.78, "total_pass": 42.0316, "accurate_pass": 37.6599, "duels_won": 4.0354, "total_long_balls": 1.8005, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1756, "total_own_half_passes": 18.722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5621, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0979, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3948, "possession_lost": 5.9727, "dispossessed": 0.4057, "duels_lost": 1.9102, "aerial_won": 0.2299, "aerial_lost": 0.2886, "interceptions": 1.7743, "tackles_won": 1.6621, "tackles": 2.1677, "clearances": 0.5617, "total_contest": 0.421, "won_contest": 0.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.1029, "fouls": 0.9228, "fouls_drawn": 1.4071, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1971, "big_chances_missed": 0.1029, "xgot": 0.1518, "ball_carries": 16.291, "total_progression": 38.7813, "progressive_carries": 0.464, "shots_off_target": 0.4231 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4353, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "assists": 0.0555, "assist_rate": 0.0555, "expected_goals": 0.0488, "goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.1529, "total_shots": 0.5703, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 71.78, "total_pass": 42.0316, "accurate_pass": 37.6599, "duels_won": 4.0354, "total_long_balls": 1.8005, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1756, "total_own_half_passes": 18.722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5621, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0979, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3948, "possession_lost": 5.9727, "dispossessed": 0.4057, "duels_lost": 1.9102, "aerial_won": 0.2299, "aerial_lost": 0.2886, "interceptions": 1.7647, "tackles_won": 1.6612, "tackles": 2.1677, "clearances": 0.5617, "total_contest": 0.421, "won_contest": 0.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.1029, "fouls": 0.9175, "fouls_drawn": 1.4024, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1971, "big_chances_missed": 0.1029, "xgot": 0.1518, "ball_carries": 16.291, "total_progression": 38.7813, "progressive_carries": 0.464, "shots_off_target": 0.4231 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0135, "history_matches": 19, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7976, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.14, "after": 0.1529 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.7743, "after": 1.7647 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5631, "after": 0.5703 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.058, "after": 0.0644 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9228, "after": 0.9175 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4353, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "assists": 0.0555, "assist_rate": 0.0555, "expected_goals": 0.0488, "goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.1529, "total_shots": 0.576, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 71.78, "total_pass": 42.0316, "accurate_pass": 37.6599, "duels_won": 4.0354, "total_long_balls": 1.8005, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1756, "total_own_half_passes": 18.722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5621, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0979, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3948, "possession_lost": 5.9727, 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"duels_won": 4.0354, "total_long_balls": 1.8005, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1756, "total_own_half_passes": 18.722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5621, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0979, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3948, "possession_lost": 5.9727, "dispossessed": 0.4057, "duels_lost": 1.9102, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2886, "interceptions": 1.7647, "tackles_won": 1.6612, "tackles": 2.1677, "clearances": 0.5617, "total_contest": 0.421, "won_contest": 0.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.1029, "fouls": 0.9175, "fouls_drawn": 1.4024, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1971, "big_chances_missed": 0.0991, "xgot": 0.1461, "ball_carries": 16.291, "total_progression": 38.7813, "progressive_carries": 0.464, "shots_off_target": 0.4073, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9627, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9627, "skill_edge": -0.0573, "height_edge": 0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.6946, "defender_skill": 0.8221, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "market_value": 42000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8221 } ], "xg_override": 0.047 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2299, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.576, "after": 0.5545 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4231, "after": 0.4073 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1529, "after": 0.1472 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1518, "after": 0.1461 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4353, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "assist_rate": 0.0555, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "goal_rate": 0.062, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1472, "total_shots": 0.5545, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 71.78, "total_pass": 42.0316, "accurate_pass": 37.6599, "duels_won": 4.0354, "total_long_balls": 1.8005, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1756, "total_own_half_passes": 18.722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5621, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0979, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3948, "possession_lost": 5.9727, "dispossessed": 0.4057, "duels_lost": 1.9102, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2886, "interceptions": 1.7647, "tackles_won": 1.6612, "tackles": 2.1677, "clearances": 0.5617, "total_contest": 0.421, "won_contest": 0.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.1029, "fouls": 0.9175, "fouls_drawn": 1.4024, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1971, "big_chances_missed": 0.0991, "xgot": 0.1461, "ball_carries": 16.291, "total_progression": 38.7813, "progressive_carries": 0.464, "shots_off_target": 0.4073, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9627, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.3618, xG scale 1.2726, xA scale 1.5089, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4353, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "assist_rate": 0.0555, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.062, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1472, "total_shots": 0.5545, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 71.78, "total_pass": 42.0316, "accurate_pass": 37.6599, "duels_won": 4.0354, "total_long_balls": 1.8005, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1756, "total_own_half_passes": 18.722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5621, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0979, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3948, "possession_lost": 5.9727, "dispossessed": 0.4057, "duels_lost": 1.9102, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2886, "interceptions": 1.7647, "tackles_won": 1.6612, "tackles": 2.1677, "clearances": 0.5617, "total_contest": 0.421, "won_contest": 0.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.1029, "fouls": 0.9175, "fouls_drawn": 1.4024, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1971, "big_chances_missed": 0.0991, "xgot": 0.1859, "ball_carries": 16.291, "total_progression": 38.7813, "progressive_carries": 0.464, "shots_off_target": 0.4073, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9627, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1546, "creation_factor": 1.1881 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.733, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3618, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7465, "team_expected_assists": 1.1265, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2726, "xa_scale": 1.5089, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.047, "after": 0.0598 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0388, "after": 0.0585 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4353, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "assist_rate": 0.0555, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.062, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1472, "total_shots": 0.5545, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 71.78, "total_pass": 42.0316, "accurate_pass": 37.6599, "duels_won": 4.0354, "total_long_balls": 1.8005, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1756, "total_own_half_passes": 18.722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5621, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0979, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3948, "possession_lost": 5.9727, "dispossessed": 0.4057, "duels_lost": 1.9102, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2886, "interceptions": 1.7647, "tackles_won": 1.6612, "tackles": 2.1677, "clearances": 0.5617, "total_contest": 0.421, "won_contest": 0.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.1029, "fouls": 0.9175, "fouls_drawn": 1.4024, "blocks": 0.0, 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"EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4353, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "assist_rate": 0.0555, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.062, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1472, "total_shots": 0.5545, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 71.78, "total_pass": 42.0316, "accurate_pass": 37.6599, "duels_won": 4.0354, "total_long_balls": 1.8005, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1756, "total_own_half_passes": 18.722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5621, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0979, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.3948, "possession_lost": 5.9727, "dispossessed": 0.4057, "duels_lost": 1.9102, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2886, "interceptions": 1.7647, "tackles_won": 1.6612, "tackles": 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.3618, xG scale 1.2726, xA scale 1.5089, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5592, "goal_rate": 0.4363, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.202, "total_shots": 2.9111, "expected_assists": 0.0923, "key_pass": 0.8366, "rating": 7.0689, "minutes": 85.43, "total_pass": 20.1847, "accurate_pass": 13.7385, "duels_won": 7.2905, "total_long_balls": 0.7225, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3583, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2345, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7125, "crosses_total": 0.5325, "crosses_accurate": 0.0941, "touches": 36.9946, "possession_lost": 13.1183, "dispossessed": 1.3732, "duels_lost": 6.8143, "aerial_lost": 3.204, "total_contest": 2.4727, "won_contest": 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0.9937, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.733, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3618, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7465, "team_expected_assists": 1.1265, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2726, "xa_scale": 1.5089, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.4394, "after": 0.5592 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0612, "after": 0.0923 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.326 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1454, "combined_rank_score": 600.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1125.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8802, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mike Penders", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Samed Baždar", "ranking": 1449 }, { "player_name": "Curtis Jones", "ranking": 1450 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro García", "ranking": 1451 }, { "player_name": "Natan", "ranking": 1452 }, { "player_name": "Ayoze Pérez", "ranking": 1453 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "ranking": 1455 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Valencia", "ranking": 1456 }, { "player_name": "Gulyamkhaydar Gulyamov", "ranking": 1457 }, { "player_name": "Lachlan Wales", "ranking": 1458 }, { "player_name": "Yankuba Minteh", "ranking": 1459 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", 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"prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (3 historical appearances) to 5.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.15); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7514, "goals_prevented": 0.0035, "rating": 6.8802, "minutes": 24.0, "total_pass": 25.3635, "accurate_pass": 15.1176, "total_long_balls": 14.5763, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3304, "touches": 33.413, "clearances": 0.6113, "ball_recovery": 6.8183, "high_claims": 0.2809, "punches": 0.6113, "aerial_won": 0.8921, "sweeper_actions": 2.0, "sweeper_accurate": 2.0, "saves_inside_box": 1.2721, "possession_lost": 10.5763, "duels_won": 0.8921, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8951 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-31", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 5.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 12.895, "accurateLongBalls": 4.3304, "possessionLostCtrl": 10.5763, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2818, "sweeper_accuracy": 1.0, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 2.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.751383066177368, "model_output": 2.7514, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.003539960365742445, "model_output": 0.0035, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0568 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.018 } ], "others": -0.035, "total": 0.0035, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.05779 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.056798 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.029568 }, { "name": 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{ "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.022134 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.016964 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.016012 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.015744 } ], "others_margin": -0.083473 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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}, { "match_id": 14023986.0, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023971.0, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3507, 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 295, "combined_rank_score": 203.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 208.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1828, "sofascore_appearances": 29.0, "fifa_rank": 199.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9456, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Reece James", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mihail Stefan", "ranking": 290 }, { "player_name": "Nicolò Barella", "ranking": 291 }, { "player_name": "Cody Gakpo", "ranking": 292 }, { "player_name": "Nodirbek Abdurazzokov", "ranking": 293 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Słonina", "ranking": 294 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "ranking": 296 }, { "player_name": "Christian Pulišić", "ranking": 297 }, { "player_name": "Zubimendi", "ranking": 298 }, { "player_name": "Kim Min-Seung", "ranking": 299 }, { "player_name": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "ranking": 300 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.763, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", 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to 19.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.44); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 23.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3052, "tackles": 0.4948, "tackles_won": 0.3547, "clearances": 0.7929, "aerial_won": 0.2671, "total_shots": 0.7096, "rating": 6.9456, "minutes": 24.63, "total_pass": 18.9529, "accurate_pass": 16.2148, "duels_won": 1.4159, "total_long_balls": 1.3135, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7256, "total_own_half_passes": 7.3914, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5826, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5616, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6322, "crosses_total": 1.7356, "crosses_accurate": 0.1976, "touches": 25.8458, "possession_lost": 5.0956, "dispossessed": 0.0509, "duels_lost": 0.6457, "aerial_lost": 0.0599, "total_contest": 0.4963, "won_contest": 0.2777, "ball_recovery": 1.8791, "challenges_lost": 0.1427, "fouls": 0.1736, "fouls_drawn": 0.5166, "blocks": 0.195, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0074, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "shots_on_target": 0.2096, "big_chances_created": 0.0433, "xgot": 0.0209, "ball_carries": 6.5143, "total_progression": 13.104, "progressive_carries": 0.2408, "key_pass": 0.1408, "shots_off_target": 0.5 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:04:53.735026+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 631, "rows": 22117 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 38.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.628, "aerialWon": 0.6739, "totalClearance_p90": 2.1175, "totalTackle": 0.9546, "totalTackle_p90": 1.1486 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3051656484603882, "model_output": 0.3052, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4867 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0329, "total": 0.3052, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.137969, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.818108 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.048747 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.027987 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.026303 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.025267 } ], "others_margin": -0.102519 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.4947846531867981, "model_output": 0.4948, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7989 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0182 } ], "others": -0.0003, "total": 0.4948, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.857477 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.060471 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.040033 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.036575 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.036195 } ], "others_margin": -0.000383 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3547285795211792, "model_output": 0.3547, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1951 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4553 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0219, "total": 0.3547, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.769568 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.084528 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.051758 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.041018 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.03133 } ], "others_margin": -0.059762 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.7928647994995117, "model_output": 0.7929, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.037 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3088 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0801 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0658 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0318 } ], "others": -0.0993, "total": 0.7929, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.907218 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.25359 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.077787 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.068804 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.034987 } ], "others_margin": -0.118099 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.26711151003837585, "model_output": 0.2671, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.78 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1845 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0512 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0307 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0257 } ], "others": -0.0305, "total": 0.2671, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.842799 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.375355 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.135145 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.090787 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.082704 } ], "others_margin": -0.107893 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7096148729324341, "model_output": 0.7096, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3985 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2247 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.018 } ], "others": 0.0831, "total": 0.7096, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.398451 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.224703 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.029258 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.01877 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.017979 } ], "others_margin": 0.083086 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9456024169921875, "model_output": 6.9456, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0539 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0459 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0224 } ], "others": 0.0398, "total": 6.9456, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.053929 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.045885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0404 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025197 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.022448 } ], "others_margin": 0.039765 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3094, "tackles": 0.5017, "tackles_won": 0.3597, "clearances": 0.804, "aerial_won": 0.2709, "total_shots": 0.7195, "rating": 6.9456, "minutes": 24.63, "total_pass": 19.2182, "accurate_pass": 16.4418, "duels_won": 1.4357, "total_long_balls": 1.3319, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7358, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.6748, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7671, "crosses_total": 1.7599, "crosses_accurate": 0.2004, "touches": 26.2076, "possession_lost": 5.1669, "dispossessed": 0.0516, "duels_lost": 0.6547, "aerial_lost": 0.0607, "total_contest": 0.5032, "won_contest": 0.2816, "ball_recovery": 1.9054, "challenges_lost": 0.1447, "fouls": 0.176, "fouls_drawn": 0.5238, "blocks": 0.1977, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0075, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "shots_on_target": 0.2125, "big_chances_created": 0.0439, "xgot": 0.0212, "ball_carries": 6.6055, "total_progression": 13.2875, "progressive_carries": 0.2442, "key_pass": 0.1428, "shots_off_target": 0.507 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 63000000, "quality_factor": 0.8589, "boost_factor": 1.014, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0074)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3102, "tackles": 0.5017, "tackles_won": 0.357, "clearances": 0.804, "aerial_won": 0.2709, "total_shots": 0.7174, "rating": 6.9456, "minutes": 24.63, "total_pass": 19.2182, "accurate_pass": 16.4418, "duels_won": 1.4357, "total_long_balls": 1.3319, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7358, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.6748, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7671, "crosses_total": 1.7531, "crosses_accurate": 0.2004, "touches": 26.2076, "possession_lost": 5.1669, "dispossessed": 0.0516, "duels_lost": 0.6547, "aerial_lost": 0.0607, "total_contest": 0.5032, "won_contest": 0.2816, "ball_recovery": 1.9054, "challenges_lost": 0.1447, "fouls": 0.1763, "fouls_drawn": 0.5199, "blocks": 0.1977, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0075, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "shots_on_target": 0.2125, "big_chances_created": 0.0439, "xgot": 0.0212, "ball_carries": 6.6055, "total_progression": 13.2875, "progressive_carries": 0.2442, "key_pass": 0.1428, "shots_off_target": 0.507 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0074, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2737, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.7599, "after": 1.7531 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.6 to 19.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2457, "tackles": 0.3974, "tackles_won": 0.2828, "clearances": 0.6369, "aerial_won": 0.2146, "total_shots": 0.5699, "rating": 6.9456, "minutes": 19.51, "total_pass": 15.2232, "accurate_pass": 13.0239, "duels_won": 1.1373, "total_long_balls": 1.055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5828, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2873, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7367, "crosses_total": 1.3887, "crosses_accurate": 0.1587, "touches": 20.7597, "possession_lost": 4.0928, "dispossessed": 0.0516, "duels_lost": 0.5186, "aerial_lost": 0.0607, "total_contest": 0.3986, "won_contest": 0.2231, "ball_recovery": 1.5093, "challenges_lost": 0.1447, "fouls": 0.1397, "fouls_drawn": 0.4118, "blocks": 0.1566, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0059, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "shots_on_target": 0.1683, "big_chances_created": 0.0348, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 5.2324, "total_progression": 10.5253, "progressive_carries": 0.1934, "key_pass": 0.1131, "shots_off_target": 0.4016, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.444, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.51, "projection_minutes": 24.63, "minutes_scale": 0.7921, "appearance_probability": 0.444 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2457, "tackles": 0.3974, "tackles_won": 0.2828, "clearances": 0.6369, "aerial_won": 0.2146, "total_shots": 0.5699, "rating": 6.9456, "minutes": 19.51, "total_pass": 15.2232, "accurate_pass": 13.0239, "duels_won": 1.1373, "total_long_balls": 1.055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5828, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2873, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7367, "crosses_total": 1.3887, "crosses_accurate": 0.1587, "touches": 20.7597, "possession_lost": 4.0928, "dispossessed": 0.0516, "duels_lost": 0.5186, "aerial_lost": 0.0607, "total_contest": 0.3986, "won_contest": 0.2231, "ball_recovery": 1.5093, "challenges_lost": 0.1447, "fouls": 0.1397, "fouls_drawn": 0.4118, "blocks": 0.1566, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0059, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "shots_on_target": 0.1683, "big_chances_created": 0.0348, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 5.2324, "total_progression": 10.5253, "progressive_carries": 0.1934, "key_pass": 0.1131, "shots_off_target": 0.4016, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.444, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2457, "tackles": 0.3974, "tackles_won": 0.2828, "clearances": 0.6369, "aerial_won": 0.2146, "total_shots": 0.5699, "rating": 6.9456, "minutes": 19.51, "total_pass": 15.2232, "accurate_pass": 13.0239, "duels_won": 1.1373, "total_long_balls": 1.055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5828, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2873, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7367, "crosses_total": 1.3887, "crosses_accurate": 0.1587, "touches": 20.7597, "possession_lost": 4.0928, "dispossessed": 0.0516, "duels_lost": 0.5186, "aerial_lost": 0.0607, "total_contest": 0.3986, "won_contest": 0.2231, "ball_recovery": 1.5093, "challenges_lost": 0.1447, "fouls": 0.1397, "fouls_drawn": 0.4118, "blocks": 0.1566, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0059, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "shots_on_target": 0.1683, "big_chances_created": 0.0348, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 5.2324, "total_progression": 10.5253, "progressive_carries": 0.1934, 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], "others_margin": -0.138523 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.11815311014652252, "model_output": 0.1182, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2027 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0796 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0603, "total": 0.1182, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.202672 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.07959 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020528 }, { "name": 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6.6134, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055409 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.051707 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.04058 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.020781 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011303 } ], "others_margin": -0.064271 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0513, quality 0.813)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2262, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "assists": 0.0322, "assist_rate": 0.0322, "expected_goals": 0.026, "goals": 0.033, "goal_rate": 0.033, "shots_on_target": 0.083, "total_shots": 0.2602, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 18.84, "total_pass": 4.3278, "accurate_pass": 2.216, "duels_won": 1.1126, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.216, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.5905, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9429, "possession_lost": 4.2236, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.1117, "aerial_won": 0.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3473, "total_contest": 0.5905, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8174, "blocks": 0.4086, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8157, "total_progression": 4.1747, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1771 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 47000000, "quality_factor": 0.8129, "boost_factor": 1.0513, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 23.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "assists": 0.0401, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goals": 0.0411, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.46, "projection_minutes": 18.84, "minutes_scale": 1.2452, "appearance_probability": 0.566 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "assists": 0.0401, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goals": 0.0411, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.3618, xG scale 1.2726, xA scale 1.5089, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1056, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.733, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3618, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7465, "team_expected_assists": 1.1265, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2726, "xa_scale": 1.5089, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.566 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0324, "after": 0.0233 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1056, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3060, "fifa_rank": 1130.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0228, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1056, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0228, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "scorer_weight": 0.0258, "squad_weight_total": 1.8217, "weight_share": 0.0141, "finishing_factor": 1.1056, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "João Pedro", "weight": 0.5557, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5557, "runner_up": "Cole Palmer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4173 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4173, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4173, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3733 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0228, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0112, "finishing_factor": 1.1056, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0112, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "provider_weight": 0.0141, "squad_weight_total": 1.1285, "weight_share": 0.0125, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.2444, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2444, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1954 } ] } } ] }, "Valentín Barco": { "player_id": 1127057, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 172, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "assist_rate": 0.0471, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0457, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0216, "finishing_factor": 0.9704, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363904.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5091, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": 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"goal_rate": 0.0484, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1191, "total_shots": 0.4266, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 16.5663, "accurate_pass": 14.7864, "duels_won": 1.3887, "total_long_balls": 0.7236, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3325, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5667, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2196, "crosses_total": 0.6633, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.0236, "possession_lost": 3.8922, "dispossessed": 1.5091, "duels_lost": 2.3451, "aerial_won": 0.3325, "aerial_lost": 0.2947, "interceptions": 0.6179, "tackles_won": 0.3902, "tackles": 0.3911, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6179, "fouls_drawn": 0.6633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3911, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.226, "total_progression": 31.0368, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, 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-0.0092, "total": 0.4103, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.500603 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.062993 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.0555 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.042056 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03419 } ], "others_margin": -0.021966 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7124128341674805, "model_output": 6.7124, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0718 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": 0.0152, "total": 6.7124, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071841 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01259 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012008 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.010694 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.009606 } ], "others_margin": 0.015219 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0167, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "shots_on_target": 0.3097, "total_shots": 0.874, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.4172, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 4.7847, "accurate_pass": 3.9422, "duels_won": 0.8534, "total_long_balls": 0.2712, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1921, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3552, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6846, "crosses_total": 0.9499, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 8.5518, "possession_lost": 2.8524, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.1195, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 0.9739, "won_contest": 0.3887, "ball_recovery": 0.4448, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.0981, "fouls_drawn": 0.2646, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0791, "tackles_won": 0.017, "tackles": 0.2002, "clearances": 0.0343, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0512, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0438, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 2.9067, "total_progression": 13.6042, "progressive_carries": 0.8603, "shots_off_target": 0.5643 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 82000000, "quality_factor": 0.8837, "boost_factor": 1.0167, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.0 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goals": 0.0981, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0702, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0657, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.06, "projection_minutes": 15.01, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.639 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goals": 0.0981, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0702, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0657, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0702, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0657, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.3618, xG scale 1.2726, xA scale 1.5089, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0534, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1331, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.733, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3618, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7465, "team_expected_assists": 1.1265, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2726, "xa_scale": 1.5089, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.639 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0807, "after": 0.0656 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0534, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1331, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1445, "fifa_rank": 661.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0534, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0623, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1331, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "scorer_weight": 0.0743, "squad_weight_total": 1.8217, "weight_share": 0.0408, "finishing_factor": 1.1331, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "João Pedro", "weight": 0.5557, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5557, "runner_up": "Cole Palmer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4173 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4173, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4173, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3733 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0534, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0623, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0642, "finishing_factor": 1.1331, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0642, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0542, "squad_weight_total": 1.1285, "weight_share": 0.048, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.2444, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2444, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1954 } ] } } ] }, "Pedro Neto": { "player_id": 879349, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 172, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0664, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.055, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 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"contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0236 } ], "others": 0.1021, "total": 6.8922, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.092605 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.032335 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.029512 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.024026 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023629 } ], "others_margin": 0.101961 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0107, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0956, "goals": 0.1013, "goal_rate": 0.1013, "shots_on_target": 0.396, "total_shots": 1.0235, "expected_assists": 0.0849, "key_pass": 0.7263, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 31.42, "total_pass": 18.6746, "accurate_pass": 16.5708, "duels_won": 1.4544, "total_long_balls": 1.2485, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5066, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2302, "crosses_total": 5.2782, "crosses_accurate": 1.597, "touches": 31.596, "possession_lost": 9.5239, "dispossessed": 0.1969, "duels_lost": 2.2935, "aerial_lost": 0.3643, "total_contest": 2.4076, "won_contest": 1.0144, "ball_recovery": 1.3884, "challenges_lost": 0.1969, "fouls": 0.1423, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4399, "tackles": 0.4399, "clearances": 0.2317, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3643, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0959, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.6684, "total_progression": 34.1609, "progressive_carries": 1.6638, "shots_off_target": 0.6274 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0107, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0041)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0956, "goals": 0.1025, "goal_rate": 0.1025, "shots_on_target": 0.3975, "total_shots": 1.024, "expected_assists": 0.0849, "key_pass": 0.7263, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 31.42, "total_pass": 18.6746, "accurate_pass": 16.5708, "duels_won": 1.4544, "total_long_balls": 1.2485, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5066, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2302, "crosses_total": 5.2615, 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7.5611, "total_progression": 22.1361, "progressive_carries": 1.0781, "shots_off_target": 0.4066, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 20.36, "projection_minutes": 31.42, "minutes_scale": 0.648, "appearance_probability": 0.56 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.0664, "shots_on_target": 0.2576, "total_shots": 0.6642, "expected_assists": 0.055, "key_pass": 0.4706, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 12.101, "accurate_pass": 10.7378, "duels_won": 0.9424, "total_long_balls": 0.809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3283, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5731, "crosses_total": 3.4094, "crosses_accurate": 1.0348, "touches": 20.474, "possession_lost": 6.1714, "dispossessed": 0.1969, "duels_lost": 1.4862, "aerial_lost": 0.3643, "total_contest": 1.5601, "won_contest": 0.6573, "ball_recovery": 0.8997, "challenges_lost": 0.1969, "fouls": 0.0929, "fouls_drawn": 0.001, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.001, "tackles_won": 0.2849, "tackles": 0.2851, "clearances": 0.1501, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0621, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5611, "total_progression": 22.1361, "progressive_carries": 1.0781, "shots_off_target": 0.4066, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0664, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2576, "total_shots": 0.6642, "expected_assists": 0.055, "key_pass": 0.4706, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 12.101, "accurate_pass": 10.7378, "duels_won": 0.9424, "total_long_balls": 0.809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3283, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5731, "crosses_total": 3.4094, "crosses_accurate": 1.0348, "touches": 20.474, "possession_lost": 6.1714, "dispossessed": 0.1969, "duels_lost": 1.4862, "aerial_lost": 0.3643, "total_contest": 1.5601, "won_contest": 0.6573, "ball_recovery": 0.8997, "challenges_lost": 0.1969, "fouls": 0.0929, "fouls_drawn": 0.001, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.001, "tackles_won": 0.2849, "tackles": 0.2851, "clearances": 0.1501, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0621, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5611, "total_progression": 22.1361, "progressive_carries": 1.0781, "shots_off_target": 0.4066, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.36, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.56, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0664, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2576, "total_shots": 0.6642, "expected_assists": 0.055, "key_pass": 0.4706, "rating": 6.8922, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 12.101, "accurate_pass": 10.7378, "duels_won": 0.9424, "total_long_balls": 0.809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3283, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5731, "crosses_total": 3.4094, "crosses_accurate": 1.0348, "touches": 20.474, "possession_lost": 6.1714, "dispossessed": 0.1969, "duels_lost": 1.4862, "aerial_lost": 0.3643, "total_contest": 1.5601, "won_contest": 0.6573, "ball_recovery": 0.8997, "challenges_lost": 0.1969, "fouls": 0.0929, "fouls_drawn": 0.001, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.001, "tackles_won": 0.2849, "tackles": 0.2851, "clearances": 0.1501, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0621, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5611, "total_progression": 22.1361, "progressive_carries": 1.0781, "shots_off_target": 0.4066, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.36, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 492, "fifa_rank": 508.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Valentín Barco": { "player_id": 1127057, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 172, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "assist_rate": 0.0471, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0484, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 3.8922, "dispossessed": 1.5091, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 31, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0457, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0216, "finishing_factor": 0.9704, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363904.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5091, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363649.0, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 48, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363641.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0416, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2683, "combined_rank_score": 937.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 988.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.2, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 886.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7286, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Valentín Barco", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Keny Arroyo", "ranking": 2678 }, { "player_name": "Carles Gil", "ranking": 2679 }, { "player_name": "Petar Musa", "ranking": 2680 }, { "player_name": "Štěpán Chaloupek", "ranking": 2681 }, { "player_name": "Park Tae-yong", "ranking": 2682 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Denis Bouanga", "ranking": 2684 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Gazzaniga", "ranking": 2685 }, { "player_name": "Evander", "ranking": 2686 }, { "player_name": "Leny Yoro", "ranking": 2687 }, { "player_name": "Josh Cullen", "ranking": 2688 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.501, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.501, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.721, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0492, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Chelsea", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (4 historical appearances) to 15.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3295, "expected_assists": 0.02, "assists": 0.0469, "assist_rate": 0.0469, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goals": 0.0482, "goal_rate": 0.0482, "shots_on_target": 0.1187, "total_shots": 0.4208, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 16.14, "total_pass": 16.4626, "accurate_pass": 14.6939, "duels_won": 1.38, "total_long_balls": 0.7191, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3304, 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"name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.196794 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.138917 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.084658 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.074349 } ], "others_margin": -0.043634 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.11870647966861725, "model_output": 0.1187, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.133 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0345 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0362, "total": 0.1187, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.541836 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.171224 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.169837 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.09613 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.081565 } ], "others_margin": -0.266871 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4207615256309509, "model_output": 0.4208, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.365 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0651 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.033 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.032 } ], "others": -0.1016, "total": 0.4208, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.364994 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065147 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.033418 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.033 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.031954 } ], "others_margin": -0.101661 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.728574752807617, "model_output": 6.7286, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0967 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0301, "total": 6.7286, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.09669 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034029 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.012765 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010384 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.008809 } ], "others_margin": -0.03007 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0492, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3457, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assists": 0.0492, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goals": 0.0506, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "shots_on_target": 0.1245, "total_shots": 0.4415, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 16.14, "total_pass": 17.2726, "accurate_pass": 15.4168, "duels_won": 1.4479, "total_long_balls": 0.7545, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3467, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2786, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.9319, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9939, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4848, "crosses_total": 0.6933, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.92, "possession_lost": 4.0581, "dispossessed": 1.5091, "duels_lost": 2.4451, "aerial_won": 0.3467, "aerial_lost": 0.2947, "interceptions": 0.6414, "tackles_won": 0.4078, "tackles": 0.4078, "clearances": 0.0, 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9.2786, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.9319, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9939, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4848, "crosses_total": 0.6916, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.92, "possession_lost": 4.0581, "dispossessed": 1.5091, "duels_lost": 2.4451, "aerial_won": 0.3467, "aerial_lost": 0.2947, "interceptions": 0.6442, "tackles_won": 0.4068, "tackles": 0.4078, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6442, "fouls_drawn": 0.6916, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4078, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5341, "total_progression": 32.3601, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.317 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1793, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.1 to 15.5 expected minutes 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"xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.226, "total_progression": 31.0368, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.48, "projection_minutes": 16.14, "minutes_scale": 0.9591, "appearance_probability": 0.721 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3316, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0471, "expected_goals": 0.0514, "goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.0484, "shots_on_target": 0.1191, "total_shots": 0.4266, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 16.5663, "accurate_pass": 14.7864, "duels_won": 1.3887, "total_long_balls": 0.7236, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3325, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5667, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.667, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2196, "crosses_total": 0.6633, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, 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"name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": 0.0152, "total": 6.7124, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071841 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01259 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012008 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.010694 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.009606 } ], "others_margin": 0.015219 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0167, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "shots_on_target": 0.3097, "total_shots": 0.874, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.4172, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 4.7847, "accurate_pass": 3.9422, "duels_won": 0.8534, "total_long_balls": 0.2712, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1921, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3552, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6846, "crosses_total": 0.9499, "crosses_accurate": 0.213, "touches": 8.5518, "possession_lost": 2.8524, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.1195, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 0.9739, "won_contest": 0.3887, "ball_recovery": 0.4448, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.0981, "fouls_drawn": 0.2646, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0791, "tackles_won": 0.017, "tackles": 0.2002, "clearances": 0.0343, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0512, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0438, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 2.9067, "total_progression": 13.6042, "progressive_carries": 0.8603, "shots_off_target": 0.5643 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 82000000, "quality_factor": 0.8837, "boost_factor": 1.0167, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.0 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goals": 0.0981, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0702, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0657, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.06, "projection_minutes": 15.01, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.639 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goals": 0.0981, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0702, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0657, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0702, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0657, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.3618, xG scale 1.2726, xA scale 1.5089, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0534, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1331, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.733, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3618, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7465, "team_expected_assists": 1.1265, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2726, "xa_scale": 1.5089, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.639 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0807, "after": 0.0656 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0534, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1331, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1445, "fifa_rank": 661.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0534, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0623, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1331, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "scorer_weight": 0.0743, "squad_weight_total": 1.8217, "weight_share": 0.0408, "finishing_factor": 1.1331, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "João Pedro", "weight": 0.5557, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5557, "runner_up": "Cole Palmer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4173 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4173, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4173, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3733 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goal_rate": 0.0981, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4645, "total_shots": 1.311, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.7124, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.177, "accurate_pass": 5.9133, "duels_won": 1.2801, "total_long_balls": 0.4068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0269, "crosses_total": 1.4248, "crosses_accurate": 0.3195, "touches": 12.8277, "possession_lost": 4.2786, "dispossessed": 0.2003, "duels_lost": 1.6792, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4608, "won_contest": 0.583, "ball_recovery": 0.6672, "challenges_lost": 0.1628, "fouls": 0.1472, "fouls_drawn": 0.3969, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0768, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0534, "offsides": 0.2194, "ball_carries": 4.36, "total_progression": 20.4063, "progressive_carries": 1.2904, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0623, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0642, "finishing_factor": 1.1331, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0642, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0542, "squad_weight_total": 1.1285, "weight_share": 0.048, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.2444, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2444, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1954 } ] } } ] }, "Marco Palestra": { "player_id": 1397736, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 186, "market_value": 47000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0228, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0112, "finishing_factor": 1.1056, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363904.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", 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-0.064271 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0513, quality 0.813)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2262, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "assists": 0.0322, "assist_rate": 0.0322, "expected_goals": 0.026, "goals": 0.033, "goal_rate": 0.033, "shots_on_target": 0.083, "total_shots": 0.2602, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 18.84, "total_pass": 4.3278, "accurate_pass": 2.216, "duels_won": 1.1126, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.216, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.5905, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9429, "possession_lost": 4.2236, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.1117, "aerial_won": 0.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3473, "total_contest": 0.5905, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8174, "blocks": 0.4086, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8157, "total_progression": 4.1747, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1771 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 47000000, "quality_factor": 0.8129, "boost_factor": 1.0513, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 23.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "assists": 0.0401, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goals": 0.0411, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.46, "projection_minutes": 18.84, "minutes_scale": 1.2452, "appearance_probability": 0.566 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "assists": 0.0401, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goals": 0.0411, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.3618, xG scale 1.2726, xA scale 1.5089, team xA 1.13 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1056, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.733, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3618, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7465, "team_expected_assists": 1.1265, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2726, "xa_scale": 1.5089, "opponent_lambda": 1.201, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.566 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0324, "after": 0.0233 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1056, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3060, "fifa_rank": 1130.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0228, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1056, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0228, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "scorer_weight": 0.0258, "squad_weight_total": 1.8217, "weight_share": 0.0141, "finishing_factor": 1.1056, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "João Pedro", "weight": 0.5557, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5557, "runner_up": "Cole Palmer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4173 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4173, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4173, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3733 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.0411, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.324, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.3889, "accurate_pass": 2.7593, "duels_won": 1.3854, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7593, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3807, "possession_lost": 5.2591, "dispossessed": 0.8174, "duels_lost": 2.6294, "aerial_won": 0.3677, "aerial_lost": 0.2953, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4325, "total_contest": 0.7353, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4086, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0178, "blocks": 0.5088, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5061, "total_progression": 5.1983, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2205, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.93, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0228, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0112, "finishing_factor": 1.1056, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0112, "assist_rate": 0.0401, "provider_weight": 0.0141, "squad_weight_total": 1.1285, "weight_share": 0.0125, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.2444, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2444, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1954 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.73, "expected_assists": 1.13, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 494, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.95, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Granit Xhaka", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.505, "defenders": [ "Wesley Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "xg_contribution": 0.0334, "xg_multiplier": 0.7898, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Wesley Fofana", "role": "RB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663 } ], "duel_analysis": "Granit Xhaka (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Wesley Fofana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €33M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.033 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Dayann Methalie", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Levi Colwill" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.84, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.392, "xg_contribution": 0.0459, "xg_multiplier": 0.8707, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Levi Colwill", "role": "LB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.608 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dayann Methalie (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Levi Colwill in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €55M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Le Fée", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Roméo Lavia" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.777, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1646, "xg_multiplier": 0.9071, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 104000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Roméo Lavia", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Le Fée (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Moisés Caicedo and Roméo Lavia in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€28M vs €64M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.165 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Brian Brobbey", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Jorrel Hato", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3615, "xg_multiplier": 0.9336, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorrel Hato", "role": "CB", "market_value": 47000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brian Brobbey (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Jorrel Hato and Maxence Lacroix in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.361 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Noah Sadiki", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Moisés Caicedo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.895, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "xg_contribution": 0.0607, "xg_multiplier": 0.9205, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 104000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Sadiki (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Moisés Caicedo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€42M vs €104M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Chris Rigg", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Moisés Caicedo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.895, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "xg_contribution": 0.094, "xg_multiplier": 0.8659, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 104000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chris Rigg (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Moisés Caicedo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €104M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.094 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Cole Palmer", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 101000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.894, "defenders": [ "Reinildo Mandava" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.689, "xg_contribution": 0.2864, "xg_multiplier": 1.3078, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Reinildo Mandava", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.311 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cole Palmer (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Reinildo Mandava in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 69%. The quality gap is significant (€101M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.31 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.286 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Jordan Henderson", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1300000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Nordi Mukiele" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.602, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "xg_contribution": 0.0667, "xg_multiplier": 0.8329, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nordi Mukiele", "role": "LB", "market_value": 17100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jordan Henderson (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Nordi Mukiele in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €17M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Rogers", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Chris Rigg" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.73, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.349, "xg_contribution": 0.2718, "xg_multiplier": 1.1596, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.651 }, { "player": "Chris Rigg", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.651 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Rogers (CAM) is slightly favored against Noah Sadiki and Chris Rigg in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €33M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.16 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.272 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "João Pedro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 92000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.89, "defenders": [ "Kevin Danso", "Daniel Ballard" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.266, "xg_contribution": 0.4394, "xg_multiplier": 1.0968, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kevin Danso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734 }, { "player": "Daniel Ballard", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Pedro (ST) is slightly favored against Kevin Danso and Daniel Ballard in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€92M vs €23M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.439 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Moisés Caicedo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 104000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "xg_contribution": 0.0388, "xg_multiplier": 1.0795, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.526 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moisés Caicedo (CDM) is slightly favored against Noah Sadiki in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€104M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Roméo Lavia", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "xg_contribution": 0.047, "xg_multiplier": 0.9627, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roméo Lavia (CDM) is evenly matched against Noah Sadiki in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.722, "away_midfield_power": 0.806, "home_creative_power": 0.644, "away_creative_power": 0.777, "home_defensive_power": 0.61, "away_defensive_power": 0.66, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.472, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée", "Granit Xhaka", "Chris Rigg", "Dayann Methalie" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Morgan Rogers", "Cole Palmer", "Moisés Caicedo", "Jordan Henderson", "Roméo Lavia" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.2, "home_throughball_threat": 2.5, "away_throughball_threat": 2.9, "key_personal_duel": "Noah Sadiki vs Morgan Rogers", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.993, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.014 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.201, "away_lambda": 1.733, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Granit Xhaka": { "opponents": [ "Wesley Fofana", "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dayann Methalie": { "opponents": [ "Levi Colwill", "Jordan Henderson" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Le Fée": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Roméo Lavia", "Morgan Rogers" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brian Brobbey": { "opponents": [ "Jorrel Hato", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Noah Sadiki": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Morgan Rogers", "Roméo Lavia" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chris Rigg": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Morgan Rogers", "Roméo Lavia" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Reinildo Mandava": { "opponents": [ "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nordi Mukiele": { "opponents": [ "Jordan Henderson" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kevin Danso": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Daniel Ballard": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Robin Roefs": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro", "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Wesley Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Levi Colwill": { "opponents": [ "Dayann Methalie" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Moisés Caicedo": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Le Fée", "Noah Sadiki", "Chris Rigg" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Roméo Lavia": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Le Fée", "Noah Sadiki", "Chris Rigg" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jorrel Hato": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Maxence Lacroix": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Cole Palmer": { "opponents": [ "Reinildo Mandava", "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jordan Henderson": { "opponents": [ "Nordi Mukiele", "Dayann Methalie" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morgan Rogers": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Chris Rigg", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "João Pedro": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Danso", "Daniel Ballard" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Emiliano Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey", "Dayann Methalie" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Noah Sadiki vs Morgan Rogers will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.76, Away: 1.15. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9777, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8928, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0925, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1707, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8835, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9459, "home_midfield_factor": 0.993, "away_midfield_factor": 1.014, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6566, "away_avg_quality": 0.7925, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1358, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.9086, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.9551, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.8409, "elite_count_gap": -5, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3087, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1698, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0988, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7601, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9326 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.993, "result": 0.926 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.926 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.2031 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9484, "result": 1.1411 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9777, "result": 1.1156 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8835, "result": 0.9857 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0925, "result": 1.0782 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0782, "result": 1.0782, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3087, "factor": 0.9012, "pre": 1.0782, "result": 0.9717 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9717 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1724, "result": 1.1444 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.4138, "result": 1.3881 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3881, "result": 1.388, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.346 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 1.346, "result": 1.3556, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9791, "pre": 1.3556, "result": 1.327 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.327 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9602, "input_total": 3.452, "result": 1.2742 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.2742, "result": 1.274, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.201 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.1501, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2251 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.014, "result": 1.2422 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2422 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2422 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1661, "result": 1.4486 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8928, "result": 1.2933 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9459, "result": 1.2233 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1707, "result": 1.394 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.394, "result": 1.394, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3087, "factor": 1.1698, "pre": 1.394, "result": 1.6306 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.6306 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1705, "result": 1.8015 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.4138, "result": 1.9191 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.9191, "result": 1.919, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 2.111 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 2.111, "result": 2.096, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.0822, "pre": 2.096, "result": 2.268 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 2.268 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9602, "input_total": 3.452, "result": 2.1778 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 2.1778, "result": 2.178, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.733 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1724, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1705, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sunderland", "away_squad": "Chelsea", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_per90": 3.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.414, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.414, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3087, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0822, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9791, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.3556, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.096, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.327, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 2.268, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3881, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.9191, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.201, "final_away_lambda": 1.733 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9484, "attack_index": 0.856, "defense_concede_index": 1.043, "form_multiplier": 0.962, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.17, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.43, "team_ppg": 0.88, "opponent_ppg": 1.61 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1661, "attack_index": 1.176, "defense_concede_index": 1.221, "form_multiplier": 1.038, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.61, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.67, "team_ppg": 1.61, "opponent_ppg": 0.88 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Sunderland vs Chelsea. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.388, Away 1.919). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.201, Away 1.733 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sunderland", "away_squad": "Chelsea", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_per90": 3.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.414, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.414, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.201, "away_lambda": 1.733, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.388, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.919 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:36:17Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }