{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Getafe", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261108", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1163, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1163, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0421, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Villarreal", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1929, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1163 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1081 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0977 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0916 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0831 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0511, "0-1": 0.0421, "0-2": 0.0179, "0-3": 0.005, "0-4": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.1081, "1-1": 0.0916, "1-2": 0.0383, "1-3": 0.0107, "1-4": 0.0023, "2-0": 0.1163, "2-1": 0.0977, "2-2": 0.041, "2-3": 0.0115, "2-4": 0.0024, "3-0": 0.0831, "3-1": 0.0698, "3-2": 0.0293, "3-3": 0.0082, "3-4": 0.0017, "4-0": 0.0445, "4-1": 0.0374, "4-2": 0.0157, "4-3": 0.0044, "4-4": 0.0009, "5-0": 0.0191, "5-1": 0.016, "5-2": 0.0067, "5-3": 0.0019, "6-0": 0.0068, "6-1": 0.0057, "6-2": 0.0024, "6-3": 0.0007, "7-0": 0.0021, "7-1": 0.0018, "7-2": 0.0007, "8-0": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.6726, "draw": 0.1929, "away_win": 0.1346 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.573, "under_2_5_goals": 0.427, "btts_yes": 0.502, "btts_no": 0.498, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4317, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1173 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.9, "MCR": 6.95, "ATR": 7.04, "GK": 7.0 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.65, "MCR": 6.75, "ATR": 6.82, "GK": 6.91 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Villarreal vs Getafe. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Villarreal 5W-4D-1L vs Getafe over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Tajon Buchanan, Alberto Moleiro", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Pape Gueye vs Mario Martín will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.89, Away: 0.49. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 2.143, "away_lambda": 0.84, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 5, "away_wins": 1, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 1.0286, "away_multiplier": 0.9714 }, "modal_scoreline": "2-0", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1163, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.6726, "draw": 0.1929, "away_win": 0.1346 }, "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6726, "fair_spread": 1.303, "fair_total": 2.983, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 2.143, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 0.84, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.573, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.502, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4317, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1173, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.5953, "probability": 0.4486, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Martín Satriano (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.2016, "probability": 0.1826, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.321, "probability": 0.2746, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ramón Terrats (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.1116, "probability": 0.1056, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.983, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 803, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.9, "possession_home_pct": 51.8, "possession_away_pct": 48.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6726, "script": "Villarreal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.30 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Getafe must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Villarreal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Villarreal chance creation leans on Alberto Moleiro against Djené, Nemanja Gudelj in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Villarreal: starters carry the main goal usage through Tajon Buchanan, Alberto Moleiro; bench watchlist: Nathan-Dylan Saliba, Tani Oluwaseyi.", "Getafe: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Christantus Uche, Ivan Azón, Alberto Risco.", "Assist usage should flow through Ilias Akhomach, Alberto Moleiro; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Villarreal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Getafe is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Villarreal.", "Getafe wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Villarreal": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Luiz Júnior": { "player_id": 1066603, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 192, "market_value": 12400000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2763, "rating": 7.0043, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 31, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.6335, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 5.0073, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.7396, "shots_faced": 8.0, "expected_saves": 1.96, "high_pressure_saves": 0.67, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano, Ramón Terrats", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 4, "goals_prevented": -1.7728 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 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"league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081803.0, "match_date": "2026-03-08", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.7456 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081789.0, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { 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"ranking": 2068 }, { "player_name": "Ariel Cáceres", "ranking": 2069 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Zelarayán", "ranking": 2070 }, { "player_name": "Šime Gržan", "ranking": 2071 }, { "player_name": "Kaku", "ranking": 2072 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Rodríguez", "ranking": 2074 }, { "player_name": "Abbos Gulomov", "ranking": 2075 }, { "player_name": "Chan-dong Lee", "ranking": 2076 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Spinazzola", "ranking": 2077 }, { "player_name": "Toni Martínez", "ranking": 2078 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", 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0.0825 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0679 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0595 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0375 } ], "others": -0.0374, "total": 0.2758, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.09414 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.082498 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.067926 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.059539 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.037523 } ], "others_margin": -0.03757 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.004347801208496, "model_output": 7.0043, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0519 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0426 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0196 } ], "others": -0.0597, "total": 7.0043, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.051919 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.042564 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023872 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.021881 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019571 } ], "others_margin": -0.059665 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.6572, "goals_prevented": 0.2763, "rating": 7.0043, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.8249, "accurate_pass": 16.844, "total_long_balls": 7.9229, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0725, "touches": 30.7012, "clearances": 1.3468, "ball_recovery": 7.6644, "high_claims": 1.1506, "punches": 1.6335, "aerial_won": 0.1473, "sweeper_actions": 1.4609, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2911, "saves_inside_box": 1.1466, "possession_lost": 5.0073, "duels_won": 0.2118, "duels_lost": 0.1987, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0308, "fouls_drawn": 0.0827, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7917, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4294, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.7396, "shots_faced": 7.0, "expected_saves": 1.71, "high_pressure_saves": 0.59, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano, Ramón Terrats", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.14 (squad xG sum 1.0517, xG scale 2.0376, xA scale 1.7540, team xA 1.71 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6572, "goals_prevented": 0.2763, "rating": 7.0043, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.8249, "accurate_pass": 16.844, "total_long_balls": 7.9229, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0725, "touches": 30.7012, "clearances": 1.3468, "ball_recovery": 7.6644, "high_claims": 1.1506, "punches": 1.6335, "aerial_won": 0.1473, "sweeper_actions": 1.4609, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2911, "saves_inside_box": 1.1466, "possession_lost": 5.0073, "duels_won": 0.2118, "duels_lost": 0.1987, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0308, "fouls_drawn": 0.0827, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7917, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4294, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.7396, "shots_faced": 8.0, "expected_saves": 1.96, "high_pressure_saves": 0.67, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano, Ramón Terrats", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.143, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0517, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9774, "team_expected_assists": 1.7144, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0376, "xa_scale": 1.754, "opponent_lambda": 0.84, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 7.0, "after": 8.0 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 1.71, "after": 1.96 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.59, "after": 0.67 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6572, "goals_prevented": 0.2763, "rating": 7.0043, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 21.8249, "accurate_pass": 16.844, "total_long_balls": 7.9229, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0725, "touches": 30.7012, "clearances": 1.3468, "ball_recovery": 7.6644, "high_claims": 1.1506, "punches": 1.6335, "aerial_won": 0.1473, "sweeper_actions": 1.4609, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2911, "saves_inside_box": 1.1466, "possession_lost": 5.0073, "duels_won": 0.2118, "duels_lost": 0.1987, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0308, "fouls_drawn": 0.0827, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7917, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4294, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.7396, "shots_faced": 8.0, "expected_saves": 1.96, "high_pressure_saves": 0.67, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano, Ramón Terrats", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1378 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0885 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0155 } ], "others": 0.0161, "total": 7.072, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.137847 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.088495 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.028986 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017332 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.015502 } ], "others_margin": 0.016109 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0065, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9892, "tackles": 1.0132, "tackles_won": 0.6117, "clearances": 4.5587, "aerial_won": 1.2988, "total_shots": 0.539, "rating": 7.072, "minutes": 89.89, "total_pass": 82.8773, "accurate_pass": 75.677, "duels_won": 1.9672, "total_long_balls": 10.8052, "accurate_long_balls": 5.851, "total_own_half_passes": 48.1834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.349, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.328, "crosses_total": 0.0511, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 94.437, "possession_lost": 8.6656, "dispossessed": 0.1339, "duels_lost": 2.2642, "aerial_lost": 0.8224, "total_contest": 0.6534, "won_contest": 0.2508, "ball_recovery": 4.0244, "challenges_lost": 0.3155, "fouls": 0.6583, "fouls_drawn": 0.0935, "blocks": 1.0222, "goals": 0.0, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 34.694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.328, "crosses_total": 0.055, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 94.437, "possession_lost": 8.6656, "dispossessed": 0.1339, "duels_lost": 2.2642, "aerial_lost": 0.8224, "total_contest": 0.6534, "won_contest": 0.2508, "ball_recovery": 4.0244, "challenges_lost": 0.3155, "fouls": 0.663, "fouls_drawn": 0.0968, "blocks": 1.0222, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0662, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0994, "shots_on_target": 0.0053, "big_chances_created": 0.2249, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 31.9429, "total_progression": 151.1877, "progressive_carries": 1.2816, "key_pass": 0.412, "shots_off_target": 0.5335 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0138, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9988, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6117, "after": 0.6032 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9939, "tackles": 1.0132, "tackles_won": 0.6032, "clearances": 4.5587, "aerial_won": 1.2988, "total_shots": 0.5408, "rating": 7.072, "minutes": 89.89, "total_pass": 82.8773, "accurate_pass": 75.677, "duels_won": 1.9672, "total_long_balls": 10.8052, "accurate_long_balls": 5.851, "total_own_half_passes": 48.1834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.349, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.328, "crosses_total": 0.055, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 94.437, "possession_lost": 8.6656, "dispossessed": 0.1339, "duels_lost": 2.2642, "aerial_lost": 0.8224, "total_contest": 0.6534, "won_contest": 0.2508, "ball_recovery": 4.0244, "challenges_lost": 0.3155, "fouls": 0.663, "fouls_drawn": 0.0968, "blocks": 1.0222, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0662, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0994, "shots_on_target": 0.0053, "big_chances_created": 0.2249, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 31.9429, "total_progression": 151.1877, "progressive_carries": 1.2816, "key_pass": 0.412, "shots_off_target": 0.5335 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9939, "tackles": 1.0132, "tackles_won": 0.6032, "clearances": 4.5587, "aerial_won": 1.2988, "total_shots": 0.5408, "rating": 7.072, "minutes": 89.89, "total_pass": 82.8773, "accurate_pass": 75.677, "duels_won": 1.9672, "total_long_balls": 10.8052, "accurate_long_balls": 5.851, "total_own_half_passes": 48.1834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.349, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.328, "crosses_total": 0.055, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 94.437, "possession_lost": 8.6656, "dispossessed": 0.1339, "duels_lost": 2.2642, "aerial_lost": 0.8224, "total_contest": 0.6534, "won_contest": 0.2508, "ball_recovery": 4.0244, "challenges_lost": 0.3155, "fouls": 0.663, "fouls_drawn": 0.0968, "blocks": 1.0222, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0662, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0994, "shots_on_target": 0.0053, "big_chances_created": 0.2249, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 31.9429, "total_progression": 151.1877, "progressive_carries": 1.2816, "key_pass": 0.412, "shots_off_target": 0.5335, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9939, "tackles": 1.0132, "tackles_won": 0.6032, "clearances": 4.5587, "aerial_won": 1.2988, "total_shots": 0.5408, "rating": 7.072, "minutes": 89.89, "total_pass": 82.8773, "accurate_pass": 75.677, "duels_won": 1.9672, "total_long_balls": 10.8052, "accurate_long_balls": 5.851, "total_own_half_passes": 48.1834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.349, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.328, "crosses_total": 0.055, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 94.437, "possession_lost": 8.6656, "dispossessed": 0.1339, "duels_lost": 2.2642, "aerial_lost": 0.8224, "total_contest": 0.6534, "won_contest": 0.2508, "ball_recovery": 4.0244, "challenges_lost": 0.3155, "fouls": 0.663, "fouls_drawn": 0.0968, "blocks": 1.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0994, "shots_on_target": 0.0053, "big_chances_created": 0.2249, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 31.9429, "total_progression": 151.1877, "progressive_carries": 1.2816, "key_pass": 0.412, "shots_off_target": 0.5335, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.14 (squad xG sum 1.0517, xG scale 2.0376, xA scale 1.7540, team xA 1.71 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9939, "tackles": 1.0132, "tackles_won": 0.6032, "clearances": 4.5587, "aerial_won": 1.2988, "total_shots": 0.5408, "rating": 7.072, "minutes": 89.89, "total_pass": 82.8773, "accurate_pass": 75.677, "duels_won": 1.9672, "total_long_balls": 10.8052, "accurate_long_balls": 5.851, "total_own_half_passes": 48.1834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.349, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.328, "crosses_total": 0.055, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 94.437, "possession_lost": 8.6656, "dispossessed": 0.1339, "duels_lost": 2.2642, "aerial_lost": 0.8224, "total_contest": 0.6534, "won_contest": 0.2508, "ball_recovery": 4.0244, "challenges_lost": 0.3155, "fouls": 0.663, "fouls_drawn": 0.0968, "blocks": 1.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "expected_assists": 0.1743, "shots_on_target": 0.0053, "big_chances_created": 0.2249, "xgot": 0.0004, "ball_carries": 31.9429, "total_progression": 151.1877, "progressive_carries": 1.2816, "key_pass": 0.412, "shots_off_target": 0.5335, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.143, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0517, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9774, "team_expected_assists": 1.7144, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0376, "xa_scale": 1.754, "opponent_lambda": 0.84, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0135, "after": 0.0275 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0994, "after": 0.1743 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9939, "tackles": 1.0132, "tackles_won": 0.6032, "clearances": 4.5587, "aerial_won": 1.2988, "total_shots": 0.5408, "rating": 7.072, "minutes": 89.89, "total_pass": 82.8773, "accurate_pass": 75.677, "duels_won": 1.9672, "total_long_balls": 10.8052, "accurate_long_balls": 5.851, "total_own_half_passes": 48.1834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.349, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.328, "crosses_total": 0.055, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 94.437, "possession_lost": 8.6656, "dispossessed": 0.1339, "duels_lost": 2.2642, "aerial_lost": 0.8224, "total_contest": 0.6534, "won_contest": 0.2508, "ball_recovery": 4.0244, "challenges_lost": 0.3155, "fouls": 0.663, "fouls_drawn": 0.0968, "blocks": 1.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "expected_assists": 0.1743, "shots_on_target": 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1247.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9939, "tackles": 1.0132, "tackles_won": 0.6032, "clearances": 4.5587, "aerial_won": 1.2988, "total_shots": 0.5408, "rating": 7.072, "minutes": 89.89, "total_pass": 82.8773, "accurate_pass": 75.677, "duels_won": 1.9672, "total_long_balls": 10.8052, "accurate_long_balls": 5.851, "total_own_half_passes": 48.1834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.349, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.328, "crosses_total": 0.055, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 94.437, "possession_lost": 8.6656, "dispossessed": 0.1339, "duels_lost": 2.2642, "aerial_lost": 0.8224, "total_contest": 0.6534, "won_contest": 0.2508, "ball_recovery": 4.0244, "challenges_lost": 0.3155, "fouls": 0.663, "fouls_drawn": 0.0968, "blocks": 1.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "expected_assists": 0.1743, "shots_on_target": 0.0053, "big_chances_created": 0.2249, "xgot": 0.0004, "ball_carries": 31.9429, "total_progression": 151.1877, "progressive_carries": 1.2816, "key_pass": 0.412, "shots_off_target": 0.5335, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0271, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, 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{ "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.4121029376983643, "model_output": 1.4121, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1605 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1567 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0856 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0411 } ], "others": 0.0381, "total": 1.4121, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.124635 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121829 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.064725 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040232 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.030403 } ], "others_margin": 0.027383 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5067659616470337, "model_output": 0.5068, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0585 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0241, "total": 0.5068, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058524 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.023974 }, { 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"opponent_faced": "Francho Serrano", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Francho Serrano", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1662, "tackles": 1.451, "tackles_won": 0.9614, "clearances": 4.263, "aerial_won": 1.4122, "total_shots": 0.5245, "rating": 6.95, "minutes": 78.33, "total_pass": 58.0214, "accurate_pass": 53.2037, "duels_won": 3.1748, "total_long_balls": 4.318, "accurate_long_balls": 2.939, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.6408, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6026, 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.143, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0517, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9774, "team_expected_assists": 1.7144, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0376, "xa_scale": 1.754, "opponent_lambda": 0.84, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0334, "after": 0.0681 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0391, "after": 0.0686 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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{ "match_date": "2026-04-23", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.8584, "aerialWon": 0.8717, "totalClearance_p90": 5.762, "totalTackle": 1.3646, "totalTackle_p90": 1.4363 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8946316838264465, "model_output": 0.8946, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.11 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.104 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": 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{ "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4604 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.4433 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3448 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3165 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1687 } ], "others": -0.3701, "total": 4.4419, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126454 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.108287 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.076803 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.06565 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.034462 } ], "others_margin": -0.080037 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.4898693561553955, "model_output": 1.4899, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2172 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1701 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.085 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0852 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0882 } ], "others": -0.0911, "total": 1.4899, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.172694 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.137666 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.062315 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.058736 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.057386 } ], "others_margin": -0.059316 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3044922947883606, "model_output": 0.3045, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1154 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0473 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0715, "total": 0.3045, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.115398 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047265 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022184 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008665 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.006172 } ], "others_margin": -0.071602 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.789144039154053, "model_output": 6.7891, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0084 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0037, "total": 6.7891, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.018801 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014557 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011785 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.008361 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.00683 } ], "others_margin": -0.003627 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0031, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8974, "tackles": 1.3572, "tackles_won": 0.8149, "clearances": 4.4557, "aerial_won": 1.4945, "total_shots": 0.3055, "rating": 6.7891, "minutes": 85.02, "total_pass": 56.1933, "accurate_pass": 52.1291, "duels_won": 3.1988, "total_long_balls": 2.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.2461, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8829, "crosses_total": 0.0045, "crosses_accurate": 0.0019, "touches": 67.3734, "possession_lost": 4.8966, "dispossessed": 0.1111, "duels_lost": 3.5413, "aerial_lost": 1.0656, "total_contest": 0.549, "won_contest": 0.3245, "ball_recovery": 2.8317, "challenges_lost": 1.2951, "fouls": 0.8532, "fouls_drawn": 0.41, "blocks": 0.5605, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.003, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0593, "big_chances_created": 0.005, "xgot": 0.0006, "ball_carries": 12.6021, "total_progression": 31.27, "progressive_carries": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.0332, "shots_off_target": 0.2462 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0031, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8974, "tackles": 1.3572, "tackles_won": 0.8149, "clearances": 4.4557, "aerial_won": 1.4945, "total_shots": 0.3055, "rating": 6.7891, "minutes": 85.02, "total_pass": 56.1933, "accurate_pass": 52.1291, "duels_won": 3.1988, "total_long_balls": 2.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.2461, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8829, "crosses_total": 0.0045, "crosses_accurate": 0.0019, "touches": 67.3734, "possession_lost": 4.8966, "dispossessed": 0.1111, "duels_lost": 3.5413, "aerial_lost": 1.0656, "total_contest": 0.549, "won_contest": 0.3245, "ball_recovery": 2.8317, "challenges_lost": 1.2951, "fouls": 0.8532, "fouls_drawn": 0.41, "blocks": 0.5605, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.003, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0593, "big_chances_created": 0.005, "xgot": 0.0006, "ball_carries": 12.6021, "total_progression": 31.27, "progressive_carries": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.0332, "shots_off_target": 0.2462 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8974, "tackles": 1.3572, "tackles_won": 0.8149, "clearances": 4.4557, "aerial_won": 1.4945, "total_shots": 0.3055, "rating": 6.7891, "minutes": 85.02, "total_pass": 56.1933, "accurate_pass": 52.1291, "duels_won": 3.1988, "total_long_balls": 2.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.2461, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8829, "crosses_total": 0.0045, "crosses_accurate": 0.0019, "touches": 67.3734, "possession_lost": 4.8966, "dispossessed": 0.1111, "duels_lost": 3.5413, "aerial_lost": 1.0656, "total_contest": 0.549, "won_contest": 0.3245, "ball_recovery": 2.8317, "challenges_lost": 1.2951, "fouls": 0.8532, "fouls_drawn": 0.41, "blocks": 0.5605, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.003, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0593, "big_chances_created": 0.005, "xgot": 0.0006, "ball_carries": 12.6021, "total_progression": 31.27, "progressive_carries": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.0332, "shots_off_target": 0.2462, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8974, "tackles": 1.3572, "tackles_won": 0.8149, "clearances": 4.4557, "aerial_won": 1.4945, "total_shots": 0.3055, "rating": 6.7891, "minutes": 85.02, "total_pass": 56.1933, "accurate_pass": 52.1291, "duels_won": 3.1988, "total_long_balls": 2.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.2461, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8829, "crosses_total": 0.0045, "crosses_accurate": 0.0019, "touches": 67.3734, "possession_lost": 4.8966, "dispossessed": 0.1111, "duels_lost": 3.5413, "aerial_lost": 1.0656, "total_contest": 0.549, "won_contest": 0.3245, "ball_recovery": 2.8317, "challenges_lost": 1.2951, "fouls": 0.8532, "fouls_drawn": 0.41, "blocks": 0.5605, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.003, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0593, "big_chances_created": 0.005, "xgot": 0.0006, "ball_carries": 12.6021, "total_progression": 31.27, "progressive_carries": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.0332, "shots_off_target": 0.2462, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.14 (squad xG sum 1.0517, xG scale 2.0376, xA scale 1.7540, team xA 1.71 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8974, "tackles": 1.3572, "tackles_won": 0.8149, "clearances": 4.4557, "aerial_won": 1.4945, "total_shots": 0.3055, "rating": 6.7891, "minutes": 85.02, "total_pass": 56.1933, "accurate_pass": 52.1291, "duels_won": 3.1988, "total_long_balls": 2.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.2461, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8829, "crosses_total": 0.0045, "crosses_accurate": 0.0019, "touches": 67.3734, "possession_lost": 4.8966, "dispossessed": 0.1111, "duels_lost": 3.5413, "aerial_lost": 1.0656, "total_contest": 0.549, "won_contest": 0.3245, "ball_recovery": 2.8317, "challenges_lost": 1.2951, "fouls": 0.8532, "fouls_drawn": 0.41, "blocks": 0.5605, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0061, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "shots_on_target": 0.0593, "big_chances_created": 0.005, "xgot": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 12.6021, "total_progression": 31.27, "progressive_carries": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.0332, "shots_off_target": 0.2462, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9434, "creation_factor": 0.8636 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.143, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0517, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9774, "team_expected_assists": 1.7144, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0376, "xa_scale": 1.754, "opponent_lambda": 0.84, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0079, "after": 0.0139 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8974, "tackles": 1.3572, "tackles_won": 0.8149, "clearances": 4.4557, "aerial_won": 1.4945, "total_shots": 0.3055, "rating": 6.7891, "minutes": 85.02, "total_pass": 56.1933, "accurate_pass": 52.1291, "duels_won": 3.1988, "total_long_balls": 2.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.2461, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8829, "crosses_total": 0.0045, "crosses_accurate": 0.0019, "touches": 67.3734, "possession_lost": 4.8966, "dispossessed": 0.1111, "duels_lost": 3.5413, "aerial_lost": 1.0656, "total_contest": 0.549, "won_contest": 0.3245, "ball_recovery": 2.8317, "challenges_lost": 1.2951, "fouls": 0.8532, "fouls_drawn": 0.41, "blocks": 0.5605, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0061, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "shots_on_target": 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"fifa_rank": 2923.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8974, "tackles": 1.3572, "tackles_won": 0.8149, "clearances": 4.4557, "aerial_won": 1.4945, "total_shots": 0.3055, "rating": 6.7891, "minutes": 85.02, "total_pass": 56.1933, "accurate_pass": 52.1291, "duels_won": 3.1988, "total_long_balls": 2.6399, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2931, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.2461, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3185, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8829, "crosses_total": 0.0045, "crosses_accurate": 0.0019, "touches": 67.3734, "possession_lost": 4.8966, "dispossessed": 0.1111, "duels_lost": 3.5413, "aerial_lost": 1.0656, "total_contest": 0.549, "won_contest": 0.3245, "ball_recovery": 2.8317, "challenges_lost": 1.2951, "fouls": 0.8532, "fouls_drawn": 0.41, "blocks": 0.5605, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0061, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "shots_on_target": 0.0593, "big_chances_created": 0.005, "xgot": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 12.6021, "total_progression": 31.27, "progressive_carries": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.0332, "shots_off_target": 0.2462, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0061, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9434, "creation_factor": 0.8636, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0061, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0058, "squad_weight_total": 2.3628, "weight_share": 0.0024, "finishing_factor": 0.9434, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.6863, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6863, "runner_up": "Tajon Buchanan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4374 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Tajon Buchanan", "weight": 0.4374, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4374, "runner_up": "Pape Gueye", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3913 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8974, "tackles": 1.3572, "tackles_won": 0.8149, "clearances": 4.4557, "aerial_won": 1.4945, "total_shots": 0.3055, "rating": 6.7891, "minutes": 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"total": 0.6036, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063724 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.015677 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.014843 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.0134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.013062 } ], "others_margin": 0.001645 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.793715953826904, "model_output": 6.7937, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0339 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0084 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0179, "tackles": 2.0171, "tackles_won": 1.2583, "clearances": 2.0461, "aerial_won": 0.7616, "total_shots": 0.6036, "rating": 6.7937, "minutes": 82.13, "total_pass": 43.2362, "accurate_pass": 36.5452, "duels_won": 4.2864, "total_long_balls": 3.2434, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9888, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0568, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4883, "crosses_total": 3.1393, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 66.3347, "possession_lost": 12.7513, "dispossessed": 0.2916, "duels_lost": 4.0982, "aerial_lost": 0.3902, "total_contest": 0.7715, "won_contest": 0.3022, "ball_recovery": 3.3919, "challenges_lost": 1.3676, "fouls": 1.5846, "fouls_drawn": 1.3604, "blocks": 0.1789, "goals": 0.0405, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "assists": 0.0081, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.1071, "shots_on_target": 0.2718, "big_chances_created": 0.388, "xgot": 0.0343, "ball_carries": 14.8714, "total_progression": 72.2454, "progressive_carries": 1.643, "key_pass": 0.9817, "shots_off_target": 0.3318 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0179, "tackles": 2.0171, "tackles_won": 1.2583, "clearances": 2.0461, "aerial_won": 0.7616, "total_shots": 0.6036, "rating": 6.7937, "minutes": 82.13, "total_pass": 43.2362, "accurate_pass": 36.5452, "duels_won": 4.2864, "total_long_balls": 3.2434, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9888, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0568, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4883, "crosses_total": 3.1393, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 66.3347, "possession_lost": 12.7513, "dispossessed": 0.2916, "duels_lost": 4.0982, "aerial_lost": 0.3902, "total_contest": 0.7715, "won_contest": 0.3022, "ball_recovery": 3.3919, "challenges_lost": 1.3676, "fouls": 1.5846, "fouls_drawn": 1.3604, "blocks": 0.1789, "goals": 0.0405, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "assists": 0.0081, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.1071, "shots_on_target": 0.2718, "big_chances_created": 0.388, "xgot": 0.0343, "ball_carries": 14.8714, "total_progression": 72.2454, "progressive_carries": 1.643, "key_pass": 0.9817, "shots_off_target": 0.3318 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0179, "tackles": 2.0171, "tackles_won": 1.2583, "clearances": 2.0461, "aerial_won": 0.7616, "total_shots": 0.6036, "rating": 6.7937, "minutes": 82.13, "total_pass": 43.2362, "accurate_pass": 36.5452, "duels_won": 4.2864, "total_long_balls": 3.2434, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9888, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0568, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4883, "crosses_total": 3.1393, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 66.3347, "possession_lost": 12.7513, "dispossessed": 0.2916, "duels_lost": 4.0982, "aerial_lost": 0.3902, "total_contest": 0.7715, "won_contest": 0.3022, "ball_recovery": 3.3919, "challenges_lost": 1.3676, "fouls": 1.5846, "fouls_drawn": 1.3604, "blocks": 0.1789, "goals": 0.0405, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "assists": 0.0081, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.1071, "shots_on_target": 0.2718, "big_chances_created": 0.388, "xgot": 0.0343, "ball_carries": 14.8714, "total_progression": 72.2454, "progressive_carries": 1.643, "key_pass": 0.9817, "shots_off_target": 0.3318, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615, "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0179, "tackles": 2.0171, "tackles_won": 1.2583, "clearances": 2.0461, "aerial_won": 0.7616, "total_shots": 0.6036, "rating": 6.7937, "minutes": 82.13, "total_pass": 43.2362, "accurate_pass": 36.5452, "duels_won": 4.2864, "total_long_balls": 3.2434, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9888, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0568, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4883, "crosses_total": 3.1393, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 66.3347, "possession_lost": 12.7513, "dispossessed": 0.2916, "duels_lost": 4.0982, "aerial_lost": 0.3902, "total_contest": 0.7715, "won_contest": 0.3022, "ball_recovery": 3.3919, "challenges_lost": 1.3676, "fouls": 1.5846, "fouls_drawn": 1.3604, "blocks": 0.1789, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.1071, "shots_on_target": 0.2718, "big_chances_created": 0.388, "xgot": 0.0343, "ball_carries": 14.8714, "total_progression": 72.2454, "progressive_carries": 1.643, "key_pass": 0.9817, "shots_off_target": 0.3318, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615, "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.14 (squad xG sum 1.0517, xG scale 2.0376, xA scale 1.7540, team xA 1.71 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0179, "tackles": 2.0171, "tackles_won": 1.2583, "clearances": 2.0461, "aerial_won": 0.7616, "total_shots": 0.6036, "rating": 6.7937, "minutes": 82.13, "total_pass": 43.2362, "accurate_pass": 36.5452, "duels_won": 4.2864, "total_long_balls": 3.2434, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9888, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0568, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4883, "crosses_total": 3.1393, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 66.3347, "possession_lost": 12.7513, "dispossessed": 0.2916, "duels_lost": 4.0982, "aerial_lost": 0.3902, "total_contest": 0.7715, "won_contest": 0.3022, "ball_recovery": 3.3919, "challenges_lost": 1.3676, "fouls": 1.5846, "fouls_drawn": 1.3604, "blocks": 0.1789, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0748, "expected_assists": 0.1879, "shots_on_target": 0.2718, "big_chances_created": 0.388, "xgot": 0.0699, "ball_carries": 14.8714, "total_progression": 72.2454, "progressive_carries": 1.643, "key_pass": 0.9817, "shots_off_target": 0.3318, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615, "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0438, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.143, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0517, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9774, "team_expected_assists": 1.7144, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0376, "xa_scale": 1.754, "opponent_lambda": 0.84, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0367, "after": 0.0748 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1071, "after": 0.1879 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0179, "tackles": 2.0171, "tackles_won": 1.2583, "clearances": 2.0461, "aerial_won": 0.7616, "total_shots": 0.6036, "rating": 6.7937, "minutes": 82.13, "total_pass": 43.2362, "accurate_pass": 36.5452, "duels_won": 4.2864, "total_long_balls": 3.2434, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9888, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0568, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4883, "crosses_total": 3.1393, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 66.3347, "possession_lost": 12.7513, "dispossessed": 0.2916, "duels_lost": 4.0982, "aerial_lost": 0.3902, "total_contest": 0.7715, "won_contest": 0.3022, "ball_recovery": 3.3919, "challenges_lost": 1.3676, "fouls": 1.5846, "fouls_drawn": 1.3604, "blocks": 0.1789, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0748, "expected_assists": 0.1879, "shots_on_target": 0.2718, "big_chances_created": 0.388, "xgot": 0.0699, "ball_carries": 14.8714, "total_progression": 72.2454, "progressive_carries": 1.643, "key_pass": 0.9817, "shots_off_target": 0.3318, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615, "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0438, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2148, "fifa_rank": 967.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0179, "tackles": 2.0171, "tackles_won": 1.2583, "clearances": 2.0461, "aerial_won": 0.7616, "total_shots": 0.6036, "rating": 6.7937, "minutes": 82.13, "total_pass": 43.2362, "accurate_pass": 36.5452, "duels_won": 4.2864, "total_long_balls": 3.2434, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9888, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0568, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4883, "crosses_total": 3.1393, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 66.3347, "possession_lost": 12.7513, "dispossessed": 0.2916, "duels_lost": 4.0982, "aerial_lost": 0.3902, "total_contest": 0.7715, "won_contest": 0.3022, "ball_recovery": 3.3919, "challenges_lost": 1.3676, "fouls": 1.5846, "fouls_drawn": 1.3604, "blocks": 0.1789, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0748, "expected_assists": 0.1879, "shots_on_target": 0.2718, "big_chances_created": 0.388, "xgot": 0.0699, "ball_carries": 14.8714, "total_progression": 72.2454, "progressive_carries": 1.643, "key_pass": 0.9817, "shots_off_target": 0.3318, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615, "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0721, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0438, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0721, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "scorer_weight": 0.0781, "squad_weight_total": 2.3628, "weight_share": 0.033, "finishing_factor": 1.0438, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.6863, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6863, "runner_up": "Tajon Buchanan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4374 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Tajon Buchanan", "weight": 0.4374, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4374, "runner_up": "Pape Gueye", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3913 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0179, "tackles": 2.0171, "tackles_won": 1.2583, "clearances": 2.0461, "aerial_won": 0.7616, "total_shots": 0.6036, "rating": 6.7937, "minutes": 82.13, "total_pass": 43.2362, "accurate_pass": 36.5452, "duels_won": 4.2864, "total_long_balls": 3.2434, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9888, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5629, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0568, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4883, "crosses_total": 3.1393, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 66.3347, "possession_lost": 12.7513, "dispossessed": 0.2916, "duels_lost": 4.0982, "aerial_lost": 0.3902, "total_contest": 0.7715, "won_contest": 0.3022, "ball_recovery": 3.3919, "challenges_lost": 1.3676, "fouls": 1.5846, "fouls_drawn": 1.3604, "blocks": 0.1789, "goal_rate": 0.0405, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0748, "expected_assists": 0.1879, "shots_on_target": 0.2718, "big_chances_created": 0.388, "xgot": 0.0699, "ball_carries": 14.8714, "total_progression": 72.2454, "progressive_carries": 1.643, "key_pass": 0.9817, "shots_off_target": 0.3318, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615, "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0721, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1713, "finishing_factor": 1.0438, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1713, "assist_rate": 0.0081, "provider_weight": 0.1503, "squad_weight_total": 1.701, "weight_share": 0.0884, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.4012, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4012, "runner_up": "Ilias Akhomach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2964 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ilias Akhomach", "weight": 0.2964, "already": 0, 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"progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6098 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.194 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0691 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0528 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0461 } ], "others": 0.2052, "total": 2.0237, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.609837 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.194006 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.069055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052789 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.046114 } ], "others_margin": 0.205034 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.933004379272461, "model_output": 6.933, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": 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0.1608, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3866, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7063, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9379, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1139, "crosses_total": 2.7239, "crosses_accurate": 0.6401, "touches": 42.021, "possession_lost": 11.6227, "dispossessed": 1.3788, "duels_lost": 5.3166, "aerial_won": 0.5398, "aerial_lost": 0.5641, "interceptions": 0.4633, "tackles_won": 0.6508, "tackles": 0.967, "clearances": 0.3995, "total_contest": 1.933, "won_contest": 0.4427, "challenges_lost": 0.9753, "fouls": 0.9135, "fouls_drawn": 1.6187, "blocks": 0.0396, "big_chances_created": 0.1518, "big_chances_missed": 0.1241, "xgot": 0.0834, "ball_carries": 15.6517, "total_progression": 99.1061, "progressive_carries": 4.3031, "shots_off_target": 1.3395 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0063, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8183, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", 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"antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Djené", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1191, "skill_edge": 0.061, "height_edge": 0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.5731, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Djené", "market_value": 1500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1852 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5398, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0298, "after": 2.2715 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3395, "after": 1.499 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6903, "after": 0.7725 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1989, "after": 0.2226 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1655, "after": 0.1852 }, { "stat": 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1.933, "won_contest": 0.4427, "challenges_lost": 0.9753, "fouls": 0.9135, "fouls_drawn": 1.6187, "blocks": 0.0396, "big_chances_created": 0.1518, "big_chances_missed": 0.1389, "xgot": 0.1901, "ball_carries": 15.6517, "total_progression": 99.1061, "progressive_carries": 4.3031, "shots_off_target": 1.499, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1191, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Djené", "opponent_faced": "Djené", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.159, "creation_factor": 0.8557 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.143, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0517, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9774, "team_expected_assists": 1.7144, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0376, 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"margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.292249 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125259 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043254 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.039621 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018478 } ], "others_margin": -0.03625 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.927491664886475, "model_output": 6.9275, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0679 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0363 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8943, "expected_assists": 0.0782, "assists": 0.066, "assist_rate": 0.066, "expected_goals": 0.0509, "goals": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "shots_on_target": 0.1704, "total_shots": 0.6804, "rating": 6.9275, "minutes": 73.05, "total_pass": 46.9354, "accurate_pass": 42.8538, "duels_won": 2.806, "total_long_balls": 2.7057, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1348, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3864, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.4874, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.4674, "crosses_total": 0.5438, "crosses_accurate": 0.0929, "touches": 58.4351, "possession_lost": 6.6315, "dispossessed": 0.92, "duels_lost": 4.8759, "aerial_won": 0.4888, "aerial_lost": 1.0144, "interceptions": 1.0011, "tackles_won": 0.6616, "tackles": 0.9093, "clearances": 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0.1749 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0371 } ], "others": 0.0066, "total": 1.7075, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.50288 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.174947 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.049728 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.048589 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.037089 } ], "others_margin": 0.00649 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0761847496032715, "model_output": 7.0762, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, 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/ substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.775)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.121, "expected_assists": 0.1078, "assists": 0.0929, "assist_rate": 0.0929, "expected_goals": 0.1607, "goals": 0.1536, "goal_rate": 0.1536, "shots_on_target": 0.4823, "total_shots": 1.7229, "rating": 7.0762, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 52.7701, "accurate_pass": 44.8703, "duels_won": 3.4508, "total_long_balls": 7.2803, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0393, "total_own_half_passes": 19.876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3821, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.8941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4883, "crosses_total": 0.5702, "crosses_accurate": 0.1421, "touches": 66.9954, "possession_lost": 11.5654, "dispossessed": 0.514, "duels_lost": 3.1476, "aerial_won": 0.3346, "aerial_lost": 0.8563, "interceptions": 1.0434, "tackles_won": 0.507, "tackles": 1.0026, "clearances": 1.551, "total_contest": 0.69, "won_contest": 0.2179, "challenges_lost": 0.1609, "fouls": 1.1472, "fouls_drawn": 1.8956, "blocks": 0.311, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "big_chances_missed": 0.0471, "xgot": 0.0716, "ball_carries": 19.2364, "total_progression": 53.6586, "progressive_carries": 0.4606, "shots_off_target": 1.2406 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 39000000, "quality_factor": 0.7754, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.121, "expected_assists": 0.1078, "assists": 0.0916, "assist_rate": 0.0916, "expected_goals": 0.1607, "goals": 0.1556, "goal_rate": 0.1556, "shots_on_target": 0.4795, "total_shots": 1.7108, "rating": 7.0762, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 52.7701, "accurate_pass": 44.8703, "duels_won": 3.4508, "total_long_balls": 7.2803, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0393, "total_own_half_passes": 19.876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3821, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.8941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4883, "crosses_total": 0.5662, "crosses_accurate": 0.1421, "touches": 66.9954, "possession_lost": 11.5654, "dispossessed": 0.514, "duels_lost": 3.1476, "aerial_won": 0.3346, "aerial_lost": 0.8563, "interceptions": 1.0453, "tackles_won": 0.5082, "tackles": 1.0026, "clearances": 1.551, "total_contest": 0.69, "won_contest": 0.2179, "challenges_lost": 0.1609, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 1.8937, "blocks": 0.311, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "big_chances_missed": 0.0471, "xgot": 0.0716, "ball_carries": 19.2364, "total_progression": 53.6586, "progressive_carries": 0.4606, "shots_off_target": 1.2406 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8823, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7229, "after": 1.7108 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.121, "expected_assists": 0.1078, "assists": 0.0916, "assist_rate": 0.0916, "expected_goals": 0.1607, "goals": 0.1556, "goal_rate": 0.1556, "shots_on_target": 0.4795, "total_shots": 1.7201, "rating": 7.0762, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 52.7701, "accurate_pass": 44.8703, "duels_won": 3.4508, "total_long_balls": 7.2803, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0393, "total_own_half_passes": 19.876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3821, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.8941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4883, "crosses_total": 0.5662, "crosses_accurate": 0.1421, "touches": 66.9954, "possession_lost": 11.5654, "dispossessed": 0.514, "duels_lost": 3.1476, "aerial_won": 0.3346, "aerial_lost": 0.8563, "interceptions": 1.0453, "tackles_won": 0.5082, "tackles": 1.0026, "clearances": 1.551, "total_contest": 0.69, "won_contest": 0.2179, "challenges_lost": 0.1609, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 1.8937, "blocks": 0.311, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "big_chances_missed": 0.0471, "xgot": 0.0716, "ball_carries": 19.2364, "total_progression": 53.6586, "progressive_carries": 0.4606, "shots_off_target": 1.2406 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.121, "expected_assists": 0.1078, "assists": 0.0916, "assist_rate": 0.0916, "expected_goals": 0.197, "goals": 0.1908, "goal_rate": 0.1908, "shots_on_target": 0.5879, "total_shots": 2.1089, "rating": 7.0762, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 52.7701, "accurate_pass": 44.8703, "duels_won": 3.4508, "total_long_balls": 7.2803, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0393, "total_own_half_passes": 19.876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3821, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.8941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4883, "crosses_total": 0.5662, "crosses_accurate": 0.1421, "touches": 66.9954, "possession_lost": 11.5654, "dispossessed": 0.514, "duels_lost": 3.1476, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.8563, "interceptions": 1.0453, "tackles_won": 0.5082, "tackles": 1.0026, "clearances": 1.551, "total_contest": 0.69, "won_contest": 0.2179, "challenges_lost": 0.1609, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 1.8937, "blocks": 0.311, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "big_chances_missed": 0.0577, "xgot": 0.0878, "ball_carries": 19.2364, "total_progression": 53.6586, "progressive_carries": 0.4606, "shots_off_target": 1.521, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.226, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.574, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.574, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.226, "skill_edge": 0.1138, "height_edge": 0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.7972, "defender_skill": 0.5444, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "market_value": 10700000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.5444 } ], "xg_override": 0.197 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3346, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7201, "after": 2.1089 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2406, "after": 1.521 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4795, "after": 0.5879 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1607, "after": 0.197 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1556, "after": 0.1908 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0716, "after": 0.0878 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0471, "after": 0.0577 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.121, "expected_assists": 0.1078, "assist_rate": 0.0916, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.197, "goal_rate": 0.1908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5879, "total_shots": 2.1089, "rating": 7.0762, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 52.7701, "accurate_pass": 44.8703, "duels_won": 3.4508, "total_long_balls": 7.2803, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0393, "total_own_half_passes": 19.876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3821, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.8941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4883, "crosses_total": 0.5662, "crosses_accurate": 0.1421, "touches": 66.9954, "possession_lost": 11.5654, "dispossessed": 0.514, "duels_lost": 3.1476, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.8563, "interceptions": 1.0453, "tackles_won": 0.5082, "tackles": 1.0026, "clearances": 1.551, "total_contest": 0.69, "won_contest": 0.2179, "challenges_lost": 0.1609, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 1.8937, "blocks": 0.311, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "big_chances_missed": 0.0577, "xgot": 0.0878, "ball_carries": 19.2364, "total_progression": 53.6586, "progressive_carries": 0.4606, "shots_off_target": 1.521, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.226, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.574, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.14 (squad xG sum 1.0517, xG scale 2.0376, xA scale 1.7540, team xA 1.71 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.121, "expected_assists": 0.1891, "assist_rate": 0.0916, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4014, "goal_rate": 0.1908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5879, "total_shots": 2.1089, "rating": 7.0762, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 52.7701, "accurate_pass": 44.8703, "duels_won": 3.4508, "total_long_balls": 7.2803, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0393, "total_own_half_passes": 19.876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3821, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.8941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4883, "crosses_total": 0.5662, "crosses_accurate": 0.1421, "touches": 66.9954, "possession_lost": 11.5654, "dispossessed": 0.514, "duels_lost": 3.1476, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.8563, "interceptions": 1.0453, "tackles_won": 0.5082, "tackles": 1.0026, "clearances": 1.551, "total_contest": 0.69, "won_contest": 0.2179, "challenges_lost": 0.1609, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 1.8937, "blocks": 0.311, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "big_chances_missed": 0.0577, "xgot": 0.1789, "ball_carries": 19.2364, "total_progression": 53.6586, "progressive_carries": 0.4606, "shots_off_target": 1.521, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.226, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.574, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9749, "creation_factor": 0.8973 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.143, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0517, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9774, "team_expected_assists": 1.7144, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0376, "xa_scale": 1.754, "opponent_lambda": 0.84, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.197, "after": 0.4014 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1078, "after": 0.1891 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.121, "expected_assists": 0.1891, "assist_rate": 0.0916, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4014, "goal_rate": 0.1908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5879, "total_shots": 2.1089, "rating": 7.0762, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 52.7701, "accurate_pass": 44.8703, "duels_won": 3.4508, "total_long_balls": 7.2803, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0393, "total_own_half_passes": 19.876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3821, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.8941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4883, "crosses_total": 0.5662, "crosses_accurate": 0.1421, "touches": 66.9954, "possession_lost": 11.5654, "dispossessed": 0.514, "duels_lost": 3.1476, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.8563, "interceptions": 1.0453, "tackles_won": 0.5082, "tackles": 1.0026, "clearances": 1.551, "total_contest": 0.69, "won_contest": 0.2179, "challenges_lost": 0.1609, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 1.8937, "blocks": 0.311, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "big_chances_missed": 0.0577, "xgot": 0.1789, "ball_carries": 19.2364, "total_progression": 53.6586, "progressive_carries": 0.4606, "shots_off_target": 1.521, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.226, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.574, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9749, "creation_factor": 0.8973, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 826, "fifa_rank": 758.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.121, "expected_assists": 0.1891, "assist_rate": 0.0916, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4014, "goal_rate": 0.1908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5879, "total_shots": 2.1089, "rating": 7.0762, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 52.7701, "accurate_pass": 44.8703, "duels_won": 3.4508, "total_long_balls": 7.2803, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0393, "total_own_half_passes": 19.876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3821, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.8941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4883, "crosses_total": 0.5662, "crosses_accurate": 0.1421, "touches": 66.9954, "possession_lost": 11.5654, "dispossessed": 0.514, "duels_lost": 3.1476, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.8563, "interceptions": 1.0453, "tackles_won": 0.5082, "tackles": 1.0026, "clearances": 1.551, "total_contest": 0.69, "won_contest": 0.2179, "challenges_lost": 0.1609, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 1.8937, "blocks": 0.311, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "big_chances_missed": 0.0577, "xgot": 0.1789, "ball_carries": 19.2364, "total_progression": 53.6586, "progressive_carries": 0.4606, "shots_off_target": 1.521, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.226, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.574, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3306, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9749, "creation_factor": 0.8973, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3306, "goal_rate": 0.1908, "scorer_weight": 0.3913, "squad_weight_total": 2.3628, "weight_share": 0.1656, "finishing_factor": 0.9749, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.6863, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6863, "runner_up": "Tajon Buchanan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4374 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Tajon Buchanan", "weight": 0.4374, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4374, "runner_up": "Pape Gueye", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3913 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.121, "expected_assists": 0.1891, "assist_rate": 0.0916, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4014, "goal_rate": 0.1908, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5879, "total_shots": 2.1089, "rating": 7.0762, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 52.7701, "accurate_pass": 44.8703, "duels_won": 3.4508, "total_long_balls": 7.2803, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0393, "total_own_half_passes": 19.876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3821, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.8941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4883, "crosses_total": 0.5662, "crosses_accurate": 0.1421, "touches": 66.9954, "possession_lost": 11.5654, "dispossessed": 0.514, "duels_lost": 3.1476, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.8563, "interceptions": 1.0453, "tackles_won": 0.5082, "tackles": 1.0026, "clearances": 1.551, "total_contest": 0.69, "won_contest": 0.2179, "challenges_lost": 0.1609, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 1.8937, "blocks": 0.311, "big_chances_created": 0.0158, "big_chances_missed": 0.0577, "xgot": 0.1789, "ball_carries": 19.2364, "total_progression": 53.6586, "progressive_carries": 0.4606, "shots_off_target": 1.521, 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4417, "expected_assists": 0.034, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0621, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1476, "total_shots": 0.6296, "rating": 6.8672, "minutes": 84.36, "total_pass": 47.3874, "accurate_pass": 38.3481, "duels_won": 5.7452, "total_long_balls": 3.692, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0709, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0793, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9585, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.3082, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.3896, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.6872, "possession_lost": 11.7251, "dispossessed": 0.3324, "duels_lost": 3.9657, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 0.3324, "interceptions": 1.681, "tackles_won": 2.316, "tackles": 4.0244, "clearances": 0.9474, "total_contest": 0.6737, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.615, "fouls": 2.0113, "fouls_drawn": 0.6606, 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1395 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.1243 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0962 } ], "others": 0.3959, "total": 1.8133, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.281746 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.142712 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.123884 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.098807 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.070262 } ], "others_margin": 0.246347 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.131785869598389, "model_output": 7.1318, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": 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appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0094, quality 0.837)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.243, "goals": 0.2884, "goal_rate": 0.2884, "shots_on_target": 0.9432, "total_shots": 2.1428, "expected_assists": 0.183, "key_pass": 1.8304, "rating": 7.1318, "minutes": 77.28, "total_pass": 34.1563, "accurate_pass": 29.1391, "duels_won": 2.3722, "total_long_balls": 1.0222, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4923, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3206, "crosses_total": 3.1804, "crosses_accurate": 1.1197, "touches": 48.4966, "possession_lost": 11.4672, "dispossessed": 1.1789, "duels_lost": 4.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.2135, "total_contest": 2.1177, "won_contest": 1.0543, "ball_recovery": 2.3065, "challenges_lost": 1.0473, "fouls": 0.6487, "fouls_drawn": 0.5357, "assists": 0.2774, "assist_rate": 0.2774, "interceptions": 0.1829, 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{ "match_id": 16421076.0, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.2455 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421066.0, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.42 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416294.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 33, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "goals_prevented": -0.4904 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0784 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 10, "goals_prevented": 1.96 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 616, "combined_rank_score": 318.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 409.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0189, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Péter Gulácsi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mender García", "ranking": 611 }, { "player_name": "José Fajardo", "ranking": 612 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Fortounis", "ranking": 613 }, { "player_name": "N'Golo Kanté", "ranking": 614 }, { "player_name": "Mason Greenwood", "ranking": 615 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Oliver Baumann", "ranking": 617 }, { "player_name": "Iñigo Martínez", "ranking": 618 }, { "player_name": "Omar Marmoush", "ranking": 619 }, { "player_name": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "ranking": 620 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Orsolini", "ranking": 621 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9916, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (7 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.11); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.6329, "goals_prevented": 0.0865, "rating": 7.0189, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 21.4027, "accurate_pass": 18.8596, "total_long_balls": 5.0394, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8195, "touches": 30.565, "clearances": 1.0148, "ball_recovery": 7.1264, "high_claims": 0.3952, "punches": 0.4094, "aerial_won": 0.1985, "sweeper_actions": 0.9538, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9538, "saves_inside_box": 1.9399, "possession_lost": 2.5431, "duels_won": 0.1985, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 19.866, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.724 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:03:54.268655+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 201, "rows": 7418 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-30", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 9.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 18.724, "accurateLongBalls": 2.8195, "possessionLostCtrl": 2.5431, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.06, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.4193, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.9538 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.6329379081726074, "model_output": 2.6329, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1662 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.057 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0537 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.024 } ], "others": -0.0053, "total": 2.6329, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.072276, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058567 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.020905 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.02011 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.011745 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.009145 } ], "others_margin": -0.001993 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.08654538542032242, "model_output": 0.0865, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0412 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0162 } ], "others": 0.0412, "total": 0.0865, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.0412 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.02904 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.026944 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.018326 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016193 } ], "others_margin": 0.04121 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.01889181137085, "model_output": 7.0189, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": -0.0319, "total": 7.0189, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.023954 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.023507 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.016756 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014625 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.013956 } ], "others_margin": -0.031767 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6108, "goals_prevented": 0.0858, "rating": 7.0189, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 21.2229, "accurate_pass": 18.7012, "total_long_balls": 4.9971, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7958, "touches": 30.3083, "clearances": 1.0063, "ball_recovery": 7.0665, "high_claims": 0.3919, "punches": 0.406, "aerial_won": 0.1968, "sweeper_actions": 0.9458, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9458, "saves_inside_box": 1.9236, "possession_lost": 2.5217, "duels_won": 0.1968, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5667 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 970000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4024, "goals_prevented": 0.0132, "rating": 7.0189, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.2707, "accurate_pass": 2.8821, "total_long_balls": 0.7701, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4309, "touches": 4.6709, "clearances": 0.1551, "ball_recovery": 1.089, "high_claims": 0.0604, "punches": 0.0626, "aerial_won": 0.0303, "sweeper_actions": 0.1458, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1458, "saves_inside_box": 0.2965, "possession_lost": 0.3886, "duels_won": 0.0303, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0359, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8614, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4024, "goals_prevented": 0.0132, "rating": 7.0189, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.2707, "accurate_pass": 2.8821, "total_long_balls": 0.7701, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4309, "touches": 4.6709, "clearances": 0.1551, "ball_recovery": 1.089, "high_claims": 0.0604, "punches": 0.0626, "aerial_won": 0.0303, "sweeper_actions": 0.1458, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1458, "saves_inside_box": 0.2965, "possession_lost": 0.3886, "duels_won": 0.0303, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0359, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8614, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4024, "goals_prevented": 0.0132, "rating": 7.0189, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.2707, "accurate_pass": 2.8821, "total_long_balls": 0.7701, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4309, "touches": 4.6709, "clearances": 0.1551, "ball_recovery": 1.089, "high_claims": 0.0604, "punches": 0.0626, "aerial_won": 0.0303, "sweeper_actions": 0.1458, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1458, "saves_inside_box": 0.2965, "possession_lost": 0.3886, "duels_won": 0.0303, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0359, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8614, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4024, "goals_prevented": 0.0132, "rating": 7.0189, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.2707, "accurate_pass": 2.8821, "total_long_balls": 0.7701, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4309, "touches": 4.6709, "clearances": 0.1551, "ball_recovery": 1.089, "high_claims": 0.0604, "punches": 0.0626, "aerial_won": 0.0303, "sweeper_actions": 0.1458, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1458, "saves_inside_box": 0.2965, "possession_lost": 0.3886, "duels_won": 0.0303, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0359, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8614, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8155 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.213 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0356 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0213 } ], "others": -0.0653, "total": 0.1898, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.904743 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.484986 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.110133 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.100363 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.0803 } ], "others_margin": -0.295695 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5323458313941956, "model_output": 0.5323, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2429 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1962 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0172 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 0.5323, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.24289 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.196233 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.025396 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.018518 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.017159 } ], "others_margin": -0.005839 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7640228271484375, "model_output": 6.764, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0245, "total": 6.764, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.021256 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018233 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016521 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.014854 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011796 } ], "others_margin": -0.024318 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.4159, "tackles_won": 0.3171, "clearances": 0.358, "aerial_won": 0.1075, "total_shots": 0.2988, "rating": 6.764, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 12.086, "accurate_pass": 10.4156, "duels_won": 0.7532, "total_long_balls": 0.159, "accurate_long_balls": 0.159, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2529, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9069, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5087, "crosses_total": 0.9693, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3964, "possession_lost": 3.9399, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4784, "aerial_lost": 0.6144, "total_contest": 0.9122, "won_contest": 0.1871, "ball_recovery": 1.2021, "challenges_lost": 0.3321, "fouls": 0.2185, "fouls_drawn": 0.1619, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "shots_on_target": 0.1845, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1198, "ball_carries": 6.7095, "total_progression": 29.5803, "progressive_carries": 1.2264, "key_pass": 0.5943, "shots_off_target": 0.1143, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.236, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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{ "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017871 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.008482 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.006914 } ], "others_margin": -0.00617 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0044, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3706, "tackles": 0.6845, "tackles_won": 0.416, "clearances": 0.9211, "aerial_won": 0.6671, "total_shots": 0.2082, "rating": 6.8086, "minutes": 19.33, "total_pass": 10.9733, "accurate_pass": 9.4544, "duels_won": 1.4602, "total_long_balls": 0.6725, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6725, "total_own_half_passes": 9.513, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5584, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4602, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.896, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.7078, "possession_lost": 2.083, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5642, "aerial_lost": 0.2821, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9546, "challenges_lost": 0.2821, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2821, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 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"projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.232, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7596, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nathan-Dylan Saliba", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Francés", "ranking": 4401 }, { "player_name": "Florin Tănase", "ranking": 4402 }, { "player_name": "Víctor García", "ranking": 4403 }, { "player_name": "Kings Kangwa", "ranking": 4404 }, { "player_name": "Soualiho Meïté", "ranking": 4405 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luca Koleosho", "ranking": 4407 }, { "player_name": "Anastasios Bakasetas", "ranking": 4408 }, { "player_name": "Rick van Drongelen", "ranking": 4409 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Echeverría", "ranking": 4410 }, { "player_name": "Romaine Mundle", "ranking": 4411 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.625, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", 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{ "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.067774 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.058147 } ], "others_margin": -0.224841 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03725002333521843, "model_output": 0.0373, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0756 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0918, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0062 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0124, "total": 0.0373, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 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"interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0401, "total": 0.1177, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.610789 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.09906 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.069257 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.061699 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.057831 } ], "others_margin": -0.293399 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.38427895307540894, "model_output": 0.3843, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4267 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": -0.1919, "total": 0.3843, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.426685 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.048945 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.032516 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.02525 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.023705 } ], "others_margin": -0.191945 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.759649276733398, "model_output": 6.7596, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0565 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": -0.0142, "total": 6.7596, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.11209 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.05648 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028659 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.015655 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014997 } ], "others_margin": -0.014146 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0083, quality 0.566)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3921, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assists": 0.0388, "assist_rate": 0.0388, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "goals": 0.042, "goal_rate": 0.042, "shots_on_target": 0.1186, "total_shots": 0.3875, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 25.9012, "accurate_pass": 23.4858, "duels_won": 1.0083, "total_long_balls": 0.6164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3331, "total_own_half_passes": 7.9557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6225, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8634, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.8835, "possession_lost": 3.9313, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3331, "total_contest": 0.2832, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.6158, "fouls_drawn": 1.0083, "blocks": 0.3919, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.5901, "total_progression": 47.8311, "progressive_carries": 0.3919, "shots_off_target": 0.2688 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13800000, "quality_factor": 0.566, "boost_factor": 1.0083, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assists": 0.0335, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2324, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.48, "projection_minutes": 26.0, "minutes_scale": 0.8647, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assists": 0.0335, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2324, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2324, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.14 (squad xG sum 1.0517, xG scale 2.0376, xA scale 1.7540, team xA 1.71 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2324, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0461, "creation_factor": 1.1238 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.143, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0517, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9774, "team_expected_assists": 1.7144, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0376, "xa_scale": 1.754, "opponent_lambda": 0.84, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 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0.0153, "finishing_factor": 1.0461, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.6863, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6863, "runner_up": "Tajon Buchanan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4374 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Tajon Buchanan", "weight": 0.4374, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4374, "runner_up": "Pape Gueye", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3913 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, 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] } ] } } ] }, "Alassane Diatta": { "player_id": 1893907, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 190, "market_value": 4700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "assist_rate": 0.0331, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0271, "goal_rate": 0.0375, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7744, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 5.2733, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 9058, "combined_rank_score": 7712.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 15168.0, "fifa_overall": 62.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7744, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alassane Diatta", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Slonina", "ranking": 9053 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Farías", "ranking": 9054 }, { "player_name": "Divin Mubama", "ranking": 9055 }, { "player_name": "Jesús Rivas", "ranking": 9056 }, { 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true, "margin_base": -2.387963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.48641 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.374674 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.228781 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.106472 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.092064 } ], "others_margin": -0.168608 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03551647812128067, "model_output": 0.0355, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0334 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0022 } ], "others": 0.0007, "total": 0.0355, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.4546 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.212047 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.194945 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.077778 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060604 } ], "others_margin": 0.020598 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.0663745105266571, "model_output": 0.0664, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1434 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0535 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0058 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 0.0664, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.599728 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.366117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.155219 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.140265 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.066376 } ], "others_margin": -0.238649 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2364039123058319, "model_output": 0.2364, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3245 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2253 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0624 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.033 } ], "others": -0.1395, "total": 0.2364, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.324519 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.225345 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.062384 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.036176 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.033036 } ], "others_margin": -0.139423 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.774417400360107, "model_output": 6.7744, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0884 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0755 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0467, "total": 6.7744, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.088357 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.075537 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.029643 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.016111 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.00993 } ], "others_margin": -0.046706 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9884, quality 0.458)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2307, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.031, "expected_goals": 0.0254, "goals": 0.0351, "goal_rate": 0.0351, "shots_on_target": 0.0656, "total_shots": 0.2337, "rating": 6.7744, "minutes": 20.67, "total_pass": 20.7564, "accurate_pass": 17.7912, "duels_won": 2.9652, "total_long_balls": 1.9768, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9884, "total_own_half_passes": 10.8724, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8956, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8956, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.652, "possession_lost": 4.942, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.9884, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.9884, "clearances": 2.9652, "total_contest": 0.9884, "won_contest": 0.9884, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9536, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.168 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4700000, "quality_factor": 0.4585, "boost_factor": 0.9884, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.7 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2462, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "assists": 0.0331, "assist_rate": 0.0331, "expected_goals": 0.0271, "goals": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.0375, "shots_on_target": 0.07, "total_shots": 0.2494, "rating": 6.7744, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 22.1478, "accurate_pass": 18.9838, "duels_won": 3.164, "total_long_balls": 2.1093, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0547, 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identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2462, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "assists": 0.0331, "assist_rate": 0.0331, "expected_goals": 0.0271, "goals": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.0375, "shots_on_target": 0.07, "total_shots": 0.2494, "rating": 6.7744, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 22.1478, "accurate_pass": 18.9838, "duels_won": 3.164, "total_long_balls": 2.1093, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0547, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4919, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5466, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4919, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.6397, "possession_lost": 5.2733, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 1.0547, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.0547, "clearances": 3.164, "total_contest": 1.0547, "won_contest": 1.0547, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.2186, 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"name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.054 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0491, "total": 6.5979, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.054025 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03338 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.0167 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011569 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010605 } ], "others_margin": -0.049185 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0692, "goals": 0.0918, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "shots_on_target": 0.2194, "total_shots": 0.6166, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.2923, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 14.33, "total_pass": 3.4095, "accurate_pass": 2.5193, "duels_won": 1.0739, "total_long_balls": 0.0577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0577, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7095, "crosses_total": 0.1633, "crosses_accurate": 0.0097, "touches": 7.36, "possession_lost": 2.6537, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.7188, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5182, "won_contest": 0.0575, "ball_recovery": 0.3871, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3131, "fouls_drawn": 0.1681, "assists": 0.006, "assist_rate": 0.006, "interceptions": 0.1305, "tackles_won": 0.2681, "tackles": 0.3986, "clearances": 0.2811, "blocks": 0.0493, "big_chances_created": 0.0182, "big_chances_missed": 0.006, "xgot": 0.0146, "offsides": 0.0894, "ball_carries": 1.0604, "total_progression": 5.051, "progressive_carries": 0.3153, "shots_off_target": 0.3971 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0692, "goals": 0.0917, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "shots_on_target": 0.2192, "total_shots": 0.6159, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.2923, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 14.33, "total_pass": 3.4095, "accurate_pass": 2.5193, "duels_won": 1.0739, "total_long_balls": 0.0577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0577, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7095, "crosses_total": 0.1631, "crosses_accurate": 0.0097, "touches": 7.36, "possession_lost": 2.6537, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.7188, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5182, "won_contest": 0.0575, "ball_recovery": 0.3871, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3127, "fouls_drawn": 0.1679, "assists": 0.006, "assist_rate": 0.006, "interceptions": 0.1304, "tackles_won": 0.2678, "tackles": 0.3986, "clearances": 0.2811, "blocks": 0.0493, "big_chances_created": 0.0182, "big_chances_missed": 0.006, "xgot": 0.0146, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.0604, "total_progression": 5.051, "progressive_carries": 0.3153, "shots_off_target": 0.3971 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1592, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.3 to 15.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goals": 0.1016, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, "crosses_total": 0.1807, "crosses_accurate": 0.0107, "touches": 8.1561, "possession_lost": 2.9407, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.9047, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5743, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 0.429, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.1861, "assists": 0.0066, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "interceptions": 0.1445, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4417, "clearances": 0.3115, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.0202, "big_chances_missed": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0162, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.1751, "total_progression": 5.5973, "progressive_carries": 0.3494, "shots_off_target": 0.4401, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.88, "projection_minutes": 14.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1082, "appearance_probability": 0.723 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goals": 0.1016, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, "crosses_total": 0.1807, "crosses_accurate": 0.0107, "touches": 8.1561, "possession_lost": 2.9407, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.9047, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5743, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 0.429, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.1861, "assists": 0.0066, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "interceptions": 0.1445, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4417, "clearances": 0.3115, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.0202, "big_chances_missed": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0162, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.1751, "total_progression": 5.5973, "progressive_carries": 0.3494, "shots_off_target": 0.4401, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, "crosses_total": 0.1807, "crosses_accurate": 0.0107, "touches": 8.1561, "possession_lost": 2.9407, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.9047, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5743, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 0.429, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.1861, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1445, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4417, "clearances": 0.3115, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.0202, "big_chances_missed": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0162, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.1751, "total_progression": 5.5973, "progressive_carries": 0.3494, "shots_off_target": 0.4401, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.14 (squad xG sum 1.0517, xG scale 2.0376, xA scale 1.7540, team xA 1.71 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.113, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, "crosses_total": 0.1807, "crosses_accurate": 0.0107, "touches": 8.1561, "possession_lost": 2.9407, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.9047, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5743, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 0.429, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.1861, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1445, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4417, "clearances": 0.3115, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.0202, "big_chances_missed": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0239, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.1751, "total_progression": 5.5973, "progressive_carries": 0.3494, "shots_off_target": 0.4401, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1965, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.143, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0517, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9774, "team_expected_assists": 1.7144, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0376, "xa_scale": 1.754, "opponent_lambda": 0.84, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.723 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0767, "after": 0.113 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0287, "after": 0.0364 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.113, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, "crosses_total": 0.1807, "crosses_accurate": 0.0107, "touches": 8.1561, "possession_lost": 2.9407, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.9047, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5743, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 0.429, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.1861, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1445, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4417, "clearances": 0.3115, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.0202, "big_chances_missed": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0239, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.1751, "total_progression": 5.5973, "progressive_carries": 0.3494, "shots_off_target": 0.4401, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1965, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4879, "fifa_rank": 5035.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.113, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, "crosses_total": 0.1807, "crosses_accurate": 0.0107, "touches": 8.1561, "possession_lost": 2.9407, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.9047, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5743, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 0.429, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.1861, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1445, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4417, "clearances": 0.3115, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.0202, "big_chances_missed": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0239, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.1751, "total_progression": 5.5973, "progressive_carries": 0.3494, "shots_off_target": 0.4401, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1046, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1965, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "scorer_weight": 0.1352, "squad_weight_total": 2.3628, "weight_share": 0.0572, "finishing_factor": 1.1965, "appearance_weight": 0.723, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.6863, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6863, "runner_up": "Tajon Buchanan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4374 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Tajon Buchanan", "weight": 0.4374, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4374, "runner_up": "Pape Gueye", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3913 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.113, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, "crosses_total": 0.1807, "crosses_accurate": 0.0107, "touches": 8.1561, "possession_lost": 2.9407, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.9047, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5743, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 0.429, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.1861, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1445, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4417, "clearances": 0.3115, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.0202, "big_chances_missed": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0239, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.1751, "total_progression": 5.5973, "progressive_carries": 0.3494, "shots_off_target": 0.4401, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1046, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0355, "finishing_factor": 1.1965, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "provider_weight": 0.0291, "squad_weight_total": 1.701, "weight_share": 0.0171, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.723, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.4012, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4012, "runner_up": "Ilias Akhomach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2964 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ilias Akhomach", "weight": 0.2964, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2964, "runner_up": "Tajon Buchanan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2286, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Tani Oluwaseyi": { "player_id": 1172477, "position": "F", 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"name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.054 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0491, "total": 6.5979, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.054025 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03338 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.0167 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011569 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010605 } ], "others_margin": -0.049185 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0692, "goals": 0.0918, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "shots_on_target": 0.2194, "total_shots": 0.6166, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.2923, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 14.33, "total_pass": 3.4095, "accurate_pass": 2.5193, "duels_won": 1.0739, "total_long_balls": 0.0577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0577, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7095, "crosses_total": 0.1633, "crosses_accurate": 0.0097, "touches": 7.36, "possession_lost": 2.6537, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.7188, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5182, "won_contest": 0.0575, "ball_recovery": 0.3871, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3131, "fouls_drawn": 0.1681, "assists": 0.006, "assist_rate": 0.006, "interceptions": 0.1305, "tackles_won": 0.2681, "tackles": 0.3986, "clearances": 0.2811, "blocks": 0.0493, "big_chances_created": 0.0182, "big_chances_missed": 0.006, "xgot": 0.0146, "offsides": 0.0894, "ball_carries": 1.0604, "total_progression": 5.051, "progressive_carries": 0.3153, "shots_off_target": 0.3971 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0692, "goals": 0.0917, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "shots_on_target": 0.2192, "total_shots": 0.6159, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.2923, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 14.33, "total_pass": 3.4095, "accurate_pass": 2.5193, "duels_won": 1.0739, "total_long_balls": 0.0577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0577, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7095, "crosses_total": 0.1631, "crosses_accurate": 0.0097, "touches": 7.36, "possession_lost": 2.6537, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.7188, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5182, "won_contest": 0.0575, "ball_recovery": 0.3871, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3127, "fouls_drawn": 0.1679, "assists": 0.006, "assist_rate": 0.006, "interceptions": 0.1304, "tackles_won": 0.2678, "tackles": 0.3986, "clearances": 0.2811, "blocks": 0.0493, "big_chances_created": 0.0182, "big_chances_missed": 0.006, "xgot": 0.0146, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.0604, "total_progression": 5.051, "progressive_carries": 0.3153, "shots_off_target": 0.3971 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1592, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.3 to 15.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goals": 0.1016, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, "crosses_total": 0.1807, "crosses_accurate": 0.0107, "touches": 8.1561, "possession_lost": 2.9407, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.9047, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5743, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 0.429, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.1861, "assists": 0.0066, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "interceptions": 0.1445, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4417, "clearances": 0.3115, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.0202, "big_chances_missed": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0162, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.1751, "total_progression": 5.5973, "progressive_carries": 0.3494, "shots_off_target": 0.4401, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.88, "projection_minutes": 14.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1082, "appearance_probability": 0.723 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goals": 0.1016, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, "crosses_total": 0.1807, "crosses_accurate": 0.0107, "touches": 8.1561, "possession_lost": 2.9407, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.9047, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5743, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 0.429, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.1861, "assists": 0.0066, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "interceptions": 0.1445, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4417, "clearances": 0.3115, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.0202, "big_chances_missed": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0162, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.1751, "total_progression": 5.5973, "progressive_carries": 0.3494, "shots_off_target": 0.4401, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, "crosses_total": 0.1807, "crosses_accurate": 0.0107, "touches": 8.1561, "possession_lost": 2.9407, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.9047, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5743, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 0.429, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.1861, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1445, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4417, "clearances": 0.3115, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.0202, "big_chances_missed": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0162, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.1751, "total_progression": 5.5973, "progressive_carries": 0.3494, "shots_off_target": 0.4401, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.14 (squad xG sum 1.0517, xG scale 2.0376, xA scale 1.7540, team xA 1.71 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.113, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, "crosses_total": 0.1807, "crosses_accurate": 0.0107, "touches": 8.1561, "possession_lost": 2.9407, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.9047, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5743, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 0.429, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.1861, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1445, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4417, "clearances": 0.3115, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.0202, "big_chances_missed": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0239, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.1751, "total_progression": 5.5973, "progressive_carries": 0.3494, "shots_off_target": 0.4401, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1965, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.143, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0517, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9774, "team_expected_assists": 1.7144, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0376, "xa_scale": 1.754, "opponent_lambda": 0.84, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.723 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0767, "after": 0.113 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0287, "after": 0.0364 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.113, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, "crosses_total": 0.1807, "crosses_accurate": 0.0107, "touches": 8.1561, "possession_lost": 2.9407, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.9047, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5743, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 0.429, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.1861, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1445, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4417, "clearances": 0.3115, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.0202, "big_chances_missed": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0239, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.1751, "total_progression": 5.5973, "progressive_carries": 0.3494, "shots_off_target": 0.4401, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1965, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4879, "fifa_rank": 5035.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.113, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, "crosses_total": 0.1807, "crosses_accurate": 0.0107, "touches": 8.1561, "possession_lost": 2.9407, "dispossessed": 0.5595, "duels_lost": 1.9047, "aerial_lost": 0.3689, "total_contest": 0.5743, "won_contest": 0.0637, "ball_recovery": 0.429, "challenges_lost": 0.0165, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.1861, "assist_rate": 0.0066, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1445, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4417, "clearances": 0.3115, "blocks": 0.0546, "big_chances_created": 0.0202, "big_chances_missed": 0.0066, "xgot": 0.0239, "offsides": 0.0893, "ball_carries": 1.1751, "total_progression": 5.5973, "progressive_carries": 0.3494, "shots_off_target": 0.4401, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.723, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1046, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1965, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "scorer_weight": 0.1352, "squad_weight_total": 2.3628, "weight_share": 0.0572, "finishing_factor": 1.1965, "appearance_weight": 0.723, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.6863, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6863, "runner_up": "Tajon Buchanan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4374 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Tajon Buchanan", "weight": 0.4374, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4374, "runner_up": "Pape Gueye", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3913 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.113, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2429, "total_shots": 0.683, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.3239, "rating": 6.5979, "minutes": 15.88, "total_pass": 3.7783, "accurate_pass": 2.7918, "duels_won": 1.1901, "total_long_balls": 0.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0639, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8944, 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"decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0565 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": -0.0142, "total": 6.7596, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.11209 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.05648 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028659 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.015655 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014997 } ], "others_margin": -0.014146 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0083, quality 0.566)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3921, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assists": 0.0388, "assist_rate": 0.0388, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "goals": 0.042, "goal_rate": 0.042, "shots_on_target": 0.1186, "total_shots": 0.3875, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 25.9012, "accurate_pass": 23.4858, "duels_won": 1.0083, "total_long_balls": 0.6164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3331, "total_own_half_passes": 7.9557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6225, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8634, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.8835, "possession_lost": 3.9313, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3331, "total_contest": 0.2832, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.6158, "fouls_drawn": 1.0083, "blocks": 0.3919, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.5901, "total_progression": 47.8311, "progressive_carries": 0.3919, "shots_off_target": 0.2688 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13800000, "quality_factor": 0.566, "boost_factor": 1.0083, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assists": 0.0335, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2324, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.48, "projection_minutes": 26.0, "minutes_scale": 0.8647, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assists": 0.0335, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2324, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2324, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.14 (squad xG sum 1.0517, xG scale 2.0376, xA scale 1.7540, team xA 1.71 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2324, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0461, "creation_factor": 1.1238 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.143, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0517, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9774, "team_expected_assists": 1.7144, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 2.0376, "xa_scale": 1.754, "opponent_lambda": 0.84, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2324, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0461, "creation_factor": 1.1238, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4406, "fifa_rank": 4706.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2324, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0335, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0461, "creation_factor": 1.1238, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "scorer_weight": 0.0362, "squad_weight_total": 2.3628, "weight_share": 0.0153, "finishing_factor": 1.0461, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.6863, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6863, "runner_up": "Tajon Buchanan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4374 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Tajon Buchanan", "weight": 0.4374, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4374, "runner_up": "Pape Gueye", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3913 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.339, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1025, "total_shots": 0.3351, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2324, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.347, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0335, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0217, "finishing_factor": 1.0461, "creation_factor": 1.1238, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0217, "assist_rate": 0.0335, "provider_weight": 0.0249, "squad_weight_total": 1.701, "weight_share": 0.0147, "creation_factor": 1.1238, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.4012, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4012, "runner_up": "Ilias Akhomach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2964 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ilias Akhomach", "weight": 0.2964, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2964, "runner_up": "Tajon Buchanan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2286, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.14, "expected_assists": 1.71, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 515, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.95, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } }, "Getafe": { "formation": "5-4-1", "players": { "David Soria": { "player_id": 604258, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 192, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1659, "rating": 6.9119, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 13, "total_long_balls": 25, "accurate_long_balls": 11, "touches": 34, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.8439, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 14.2974, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 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"accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.009549 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.006318 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.005027 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": -0.003431 } ], "others_margin": -0.000974 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.16624772548675537, "model_output": -0.1662, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0355 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0283, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.019 } ], "others": 0.0002, 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"name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.092621 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053828 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.015688 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.015544 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.014499 } ], "others_margin": 0.048031 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.755831718444824, "model_output": 6.7558, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0134 } ], "others": -0.022, "total": 6.7558, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "error_severity", "margin": -0.017689 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016603 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015132 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.015026 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013424 } ], "others_margin": -0.021976 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.460)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2808, "tackles": 1.6042, "tackles_won": 1.0502, "clearances": 4.0878, "aerial_won": 1.2978, "total_shots": 0.5349, "rating": 6.7558, "minutes": 80.5, "total_pass": 31.2784, "accurate_pass": 24.9446, "duels_won": 4.9166, "total_long_balls": 6.2788, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1209, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4165, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9481, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5281, "crosses_total": 0.3339, "crosses_accurate": 0.0303, "touches": 47.3119, "possession_lost": 8.8836, "dispossessed": 0.4439, "duels_lost": 2.9645, "aerial_lost": 1.0234, "total_contest": 1.7641, "won_contest": 1.1948, "ball_recovery": 5.7456, "challenges_lost": 0.2933, "fouls": 0.7487, "fouls_drawn": 0.7962, "blocks": 0.406, "goals": 0.037, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.042 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0159 } ], "others": -0.058, "total": 0.3043, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.1043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041952 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022991 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.017652 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.0159 } ], "others_margin": -0.058019 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0501, "tackles": 1.2375, "tackles_won": 0.7607, "clearances": 4.4729, "aerial_won": 1.3495, "total_shots": 0.3037, "rating": 6.5875, "minutes": 74.95, "total_pass": 24.7318, "accurate_pass": 20.718, "duels_won": 1.9849, "total_long_balls": 3.9977, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2406, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4801, "crosses_total": 0.3969, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 33.8216, "possession_lost": 5.0848, "dispossessed": 0.1555, "duels_lost": 1.9233, "aerial_lost": 0.6135, "total_contest": 0.1079, "won_contest": 0.0984, "ball_recovery": 4.2268, "challenges_lost": 0.3572, "fouls": 0.9704, "fouls_drawn": 0.3546, "blocks": 0.318, "goals": 0.0, 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"final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0551, "tackles": 1.2375, "tackles_won": 0.762, "clearances": 4.4729, "aerial_won": 1.3495, "total_shots": 0.3037, "rating": 6.5875, "minutes": 74.95, "total_pass": 24.7318, "accurate_pass": 20.718, "duels_won": 1.9849, "total_long_balls": 3.9977, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2406, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4801, "crosses_total": 0.3955, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 33.8216, "possession_lost": 5.0848, "dispossessed": 0.1555, "duels_lost": 1.9233, "aerial_lost": 0.6135, "total_contest": 0.1079, "won_contest": 0.0984, "ball_recovery": 4.2268, "challenges_lost": 0.3572, "fouls": 0.9765, "fouls_drawn": 0.35, "blocks": 0.318, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0003, "expected_assists": 0.0095, 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goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0551, "tackles": 1.2375, "tackles_won": 0.762, "clearances": 4.4729, "aerial_won": 1.3495, "total_shots": 0.3037, "rating": 6.5875, "minutes": 74.95, "total_pass": 24.7318, "accurate_pass": 20.718, "duels_won": 1.9849, "total_long_balls": 3.9977, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2406, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2379, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4801, "crosses_total": 0.3955, "crosses_accurate": 0.119, "touches": 33.8216, "possession_lost": 5.0848, "dispossessed": 0.1555, "duels_lost": 1.9233, "aerial_lost": 0.6135, "total_contest": 0.1079, "won_contest": 0.0984, "ball_recovery": 4.2268, "challenges_lost": 0.3572, "fouls": 0.9765, "fouls_drawn": 0.35, "blocks": 0.318, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 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1.1242, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.160113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.085114 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041304 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.031167 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025451 } ], "others_margin": 0.048952 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.658724308013916, "model_output": 6.6587, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.059 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0474 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0008, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6961, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "assists": 0.0647, "assist_rate": 0.0647, "expected_goals": 0.1, "goals": 0.0899, "goal_rate": 0.0899, "shots_on_target": 0.3901, "total_shots": 1.1251, "rating": 6.6587, "minutes": 72.36, "total_pass": 19.1963, "accurate_pass": 14.4089, "duels_won": 4.0301, "total_long_balls": 2.1326, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2524, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3785, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4859, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0304, "crosses_total": 0.5271, "crosses_accurate": 0.1463, "touches": 31.3284, "possession_lost": 9.1764, "dispossessed": 1.4416, "duels_lost": 7.7228, "aerial_won": 1.4382, "aerial_lost": 2.2493, "interceptions": 0.3505, "tackles_won": 0.5762, "tackles": 1.164, "clearances": 1.0871, "total_contest": 0.6645, "won_contest": 0.1621, "challenges_lost": 1.613, "fouls": 1.96, "fouls_drawn": 1.2657, "blocks": 0.3233, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1342, "xgot": 0.0249, "ball_carries": 5.9189, "total_progression": 26.011, "progressive_carries": 0.7002, "shots_off_target": 0.735 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0008, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0032)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6961, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "assists": 0.0645, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "expected_goals": 0.1, "goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "shots_on_target": 0.3888, "total_shots": 1.1215, "rating": 6.6587, "minutes": 72.36, "total_pass": 19.1963, "accurate_pass": 14.4089, "duels_won": 4.0301, "total_long_balls": 2.1326, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2524, 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1.9611, "fouls_drawn": 1.2764, "blocks": 0.3233, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1342, "xgot": 0.0249, "ball_carries": 5.9189, "total_progression": 26.011, "progressive_carries": 0.7002, "shots_off_target": 0.735 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6961, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "assists": 0.0645, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "expected_goals": 0.0774, "goals": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0694, "shots_on_target": 0.3009, "total_shots": 0.8698, "rating": 6.6587, "minutes": 72.36, "total_pass": 19.1963, "accurate_pass": 14.4089, "duels_won": 4.0301, "total_long_balls": 2.1326, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2524, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3785, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4859, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0304, "crosses_total": 0.5291, "crosses_accurate": 0.1463, 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"duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pape Gueye", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.266, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.774, "skill_edge": -0.1138, "height_edge": -0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.5444, "defender_skill": 0.7972, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pape Gueye", "market_value": 39000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.7972 } ], "xg_override": 0.0774 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.4382, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1238, "after": 0.8698 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.735, "after": 0.5689 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3888, "after": 0.3009 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1342, "after": 0.1039 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1, "after": 0.0774 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0896, "after": 0.0694 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0249, "after": 0.0193 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6961, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0774, "goal_rate": 0.0694, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3009, "total_shots": 0.8698, "rating": 6.6587, "minutes": 72.36, "total_pass": 19.1963, "accurate_pass": 14.4089, "duels_won": 4.0301, "total_long_balls": 2.1326, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2524, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3785, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4859, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0304, "crosses_total": 0.5291, "crosses_accurate": 0.1463, "touches": 31.3284, "possession_lost": 9.1764, "dispossessed": 1.4416, "duels_lost": 7.7228, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 2.2493, 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1.164, "clearances": 1.0871, "total_contest": 0.6645, "won_contest": 0.1621, "challenges_lost": 1.613, "fouls": 1.9611, "fouls_drawn": 1.2764, "blocks": 0.3233, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0206, "ball_carries": 5.9189, "total_progression": 26.011, "progressive_carries": 0.7002, "shots_off_target": 0.5689, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.774, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.266, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pape Gueye", "opponent_faced": "Pape Gueye", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9372, "creation_factor": 1.1841 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.84, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5598, 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0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3747 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1618 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0493 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0262 } ], "others": 0.0456, "total": 1.6721, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.374729 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.161784 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049303 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.029628 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.02617 } ], "others_margin": 0.045543 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.813004970550537, "model_output": 6.813, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0284 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 6.813, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049111 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028436 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.021454 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015426 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008119 } ], "others_margin": -0.00958 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0908, "expected_assists": 0.1046, "assists": 0.1123, "assist_rate": 0.1123, "expected_goals": 0.1567, "goals": 0.1505, "goal_rate": 0.1505, "shots_on_target": 0.5368, "total_shots": 1.6682, "rating": 6.813, "minutes": 71.3, "total_pass": 17.399, "accurate_pass": 13.9171, "duels_won": 4.4578, "total_long_balls": 1.9181, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8828, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0862, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.5449, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3128, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3722, "crosses_total": 1.4756, "crosses_accurate": 0.3858, "touches": 32.5374, "possession_lost": 8.0006, "dispossessed": 0.9288, "duels_lost": 3.4462, "aerial_won": 0.7146, "aerial_lost": 0.5561, "interceptions": 0.5734, "tackles_won": 0.3112, "tackles": 0.8265, "clearances": 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1.4756, "after": 1.5052 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6682, "after": 1.6831 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.0806, "after": 2.0891 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8907, "after": 0.8972 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0908, "expected_assists": 0.1046, "assists": 0.1106, "assist_rate": 0.1106, "expected_goals": 0.1567, "goals": 0.1482, "goal_rate": 0.1482, "shots_on_target": 0.5367, "total_shots": 1.6831, "rating": 6.813, "minutes": 71.3, "total_pass": 17.399, "accurate_pass": 13.9171, "duels_won": 4.4578, "total_long_balls": 1.9181, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8828, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0862, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.5449, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3128, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3722, "crosses_total": 1.5052, "crosses_accurate": 0.3858, "touches": 32.5374, "possession_lost": 8.0006, "dispossessed": 0.9288, "duels_lost": 3.4462, "aerial_won": 0.7146, 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0.8828, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0862, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.5449, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3128, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3722, "crosses_total": 1.5052, "crosses_accurate": 0.3858, "touches": 32.5374, "possession_lost": 8.0006, "dispossessed": 0.9288, "duels_lost": 3.4462, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5561, "interceptions": 0.5687, "tackles_won": 0.3105, "tackles": 0.8265, "clearances": 0.7183, "total_contest": 1.5714, "won_contest": 0.8362, "challenges_lost": 0.3354, "fouls": 0.8972, "fouls_drawn": 2.0891, "blocks": 0.4278, "big_chances_created": 0.0071, "big_chances_missed": 0.1507, "xgot": 0.1254, "ball_carries": 8.8086, "total_progression": 43.0211, "progressive_carries": 1.1044, "shots_off_target": 1.0066, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8897, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", 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"touches_p90", "margin": 0.039082 } ], "others_margin": -0.010148 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8903032541275024, "model_output": 0.8903, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2779 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1478 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0949 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0463 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.041 } ], "others": 0.0279, "total": 0.8903, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.277863 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.147817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.094855 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.046274 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.040972 } ], "others_margin": 0.027804 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.758214473724365, "model_output": 6.7582, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0306 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0432, "total": 6.7582, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.033798 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.030629 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026208 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009101 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008745 } ], "others_margin": -0.043128 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9923, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8169, "expected_assists": 0.0712, "assists": 0.0734, "assist_rate": 0.0734, "expected_goals": 0.0602, "goals": 0.0661, "goal_rate": 0.0661, "shots_on_target": 0.2622, "total_shots": 0.8835, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 79.1, "total_pass": 22.7594, "accurate_pass": 19.3873, "duels_won": 1.9679, "total_long_balls": 2.0205, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4717, "total_own_half_passes": 7.65, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1377, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1094, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2495, "crosses_total": 1.3016, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.7845, "possession_lost": 6.8208, "dispossessed": 0.7618, "duels_lost": 2.2413, "aerial_won": 0.1727, "aerial_lost": 0.3499, "interceptions": 0.6562, "tackles_won": 0.1061, "tackles": 1.0679, "clearances": 1.2413, 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"total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 0.3877, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4095, "tackles_won": 0.255, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, "total_contest": 0.4873, "won_contest": 0.3616, "challenges_lost": 0.3583, "fouls": 2.1001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9728, "blocks": 0.2408, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5292, "total_progression": 40.6688, "progressive_carries": 0.8325, "shots_off_target": 0.4992 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0542, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9683, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 2.4551, "after": 2.4095 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9361, "after": 0.9728 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.4455, "after": 0.4214 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.2326, "after": 0.255 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6792, "after": 0.6949 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.18, "after": 0.1702 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 2.091, "after": 2.1001 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5289, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "assists": 0.0585, "assist_rate": 0.0585, "expected_goals": 0.0456, "goals": 0.044, "goal_rate": 0.044, "shots_on_target": 0.1702, "total_shots": 0.6949, "rating": 6.7523, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 0.3877, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4095, "tackles_won": 0.255, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, "total_contest": 0.4873, "won_contest": 0.3616, "challenges_lost": 0.3583, "fouls": 2.1001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9728, "blocks": 0.2408, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5292, "total_progression": 40.6688, "progressive_carries": 0.8325, "shots_off_target": 0.4992 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5289, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "assists": 0.0585, "assist_rate": 0.0585, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.0335, "shots_on_target": 0.1297, "total_shots": 0.5294, "rating": 6.7523, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4095, "tackles_won": 0.255, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, "total_contest": 0.4873, "won_contest": 0.3616, "challenges_lost": 0.3583, "fouls": 2.1001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9728, "blocks": 0.2408, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5292, "total_progression": 40.6688, "progressive_carries": 0.8325, "shots_off_target": 0.3803, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7619, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pape Gueye", "opponent_faced": "Pape Gueye", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pape Gueye", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7619, "skill_edge": -0.126, "height_edge": -0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.5172, "defender_skill": 0.7972, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pape Gueye", "market_value": 39000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.7972 } ], "xg_override": 0.0347 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3877, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6949, "after": 0.5294 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4992, "after": 0.3803 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1702, "after": 0.1297 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0456, "after": 0.0347 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.044, "after": 0.0335 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5289, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "assist_rate": 0.0585, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goal_rate": 0.0335, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1297, "total_shots": 0.5294, "rating": 6.7523, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4095, "tackles_won": 0.255, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, "total_contest": 0.4873, "won_contest": 0.3616, "challenges_lost": 0.3583, "fouls": 2.1001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9728, "blocks": 0.2408, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5292, "total_progression": 40.6688, "progressive_carries": 0.8325, "shots_off_target": 0.3803, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7619, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pape Gueye", "opponent_faced": "Pape Gueye", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.84 (squad xG sum 0.7867, xG scale 1.0678, xA scale 1.0678, team xA 0.60 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5289, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "assist_rate": 0.0585, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0335, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1297, "total_shots": 0.5294, "rating": 6.7523, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4095, "tackles_won": 0.255, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, "total_contest": 0.4873, "won_contest": 0.3616, "challenges_lost": 0.3583, "fouls": 2.1001, "fouls_drawn": 0.9728, "blocks": 0.2408, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5292, "total_progression": 40.6688, "progressive_carries": 0.8325, "shots_off_target": 0.3803, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7619, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pape Gueye", "opponent_faced": "Pape Gueye", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9858, "creation_factor": 1.1717 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.84, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5598, "team_expected_assists": 0.5978, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0678, "xa_scale": 1.0678, "opponent_lambda": 2.143, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"goal_rate": 0.0335, "scorer_weight": 0.0366, "squad_weight_total": 0.8513, "weight_share": 0.043, "finishing_factor": 0.9858, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5289, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "assist_rate": 0.0585, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0335, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1297, "total_shots": 0.5294, "rating": 6.7523, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4214, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.883748 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.47959 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.121668 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.11765 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.071914 } ], "others_margin": -0.288979 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.25690779089927673, "model_output": 0.2569, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2271 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.2569, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.227099 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.020609 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.012795 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.011567 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007338 } ], "others_margin": -0.011741 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.676281452178955, "model_output": 6.6763, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0122 } ], "others": -0.0416, "total": 6.6763, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.042968 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.021726 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01555 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.012924 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012159 } ], "others_margin": -0.04149 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 14, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9991, quality 0.494)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3446, "tackles": 0.7468, "tackles_won": 0.4143, "clearances": 0.6996, "aerial_won": 0.1921, "total_shots": 0.2567, "rating": 6.6763, "minutes": 28.48, "total_pass": 9.6996, "accurate_pass": 7.9129, "duels_won": 1.5471, "total_long_balls": 0.9705, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1875, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5465, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3259, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.587, "crosses_total": 1.5889, "crosses_accurate": 0.4411, "touches": 17.6231, "possession_lost": 4.5241, "dispossessed": 0.3229, "duels_lost": 0.4894, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6788, "won_contest": 0.5956, "ball_recovery": 1.953, "challenges_lost": 0.0832, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2206, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.195776 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.084792 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.012466 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.010482 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009987 } ], "others_margin": -0.054835 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.701634407043457, "model_output": 6.7016, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2271, "expected_assists": 0.014, "assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.0296, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goals": 0.0329, "goal_rate": 0.0329, "shots_on_target": 0.1235, "total_shots": 0.3828, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 15.9, "total_pass": 5.2664, "accurate_pass": 4.2777, "duels_won": 1.0595, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7815, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7928, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.485, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.485, "crosses_total": 0.2637, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.0289, "possession_lost": 3.0452, "dispossessed": 0.9817, "duels_lost": 2.7349, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.1905, "tackles": 0.381, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6784, "won_contest": 0.4879, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 0.574, "fouls_drawn": 0.1905, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5656, "total_progression": 3.7668, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2593 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 750000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2271, "expected_assists": 0.014, "assists": 0.0292, "assist_rate": 0.0292, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0324, "shots_on_target": 0.1217, "total_shots": 0.3817, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 15.9, "total_pass": 5.2664, "accurate_pass": 4.2777, "duels_won": 1.0595, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7815, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7928, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.485, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.485, "crosses_total": 0.2641, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.0289, "possession_lost": 3.0452, "dispossessed": 0.9817, "duels_lost": 2.7349, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.3058, "tackles_won": 0.192, "tackles": 0.381, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6784, "won_contest": 0.4879, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 0.57, "fouls_drawn": 0.192, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5656, "total_progression": 3.7668, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2593 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1767, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.9 to 19.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2748, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0353, "expected_goals": 0.0402, "goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.1473, "total_shots": 0.4619, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 19.24, "total_pass": 6.3727, "accurate_pass": 5.1763, "duels_won": 1.2821, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1694, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "crosses_total": 0.3196, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.1356, "possession_lost": 3.6849, "dispossessed": 0.9817, "duels_lost": 3.3094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles_won": 0.2323, "tackles": 0.461, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8209, "won_contest": 0.5904, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 0.6897, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3146, "total_progression": 4.5581, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3138, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.24 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.24, "projection_minutes": 15.9, "minutes_scale": 1.2101, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2748, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0353, "expected_goals": 0.0402, "goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.1473, "total_shots": 0.4619, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 19.24, "total_pass": 6.3727, "accurate_pass": 5.1763, "duels_won": 1.2821, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1694, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "crosses_total": 0.3196, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.1356, "possession_lost": 3.6849, "dispossessed": 0.9817, "duels_lost": 3.3094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles_won": 0.2323, "tackles": 0.461, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8209, "won_contest": 0.5904, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 0.6897, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3146, "total_progression": 4.5581, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3138, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.24 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2748, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.0353, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0402, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1473, "total_shots": 0.4619, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 19.24, "total_pass": 6.3727, "accurate_pass": 5.1763, "duels_won": 1.2821, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1694, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "crosses_total": 0.3196, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.1356, "possession_lost": 3.6849, "dispossessed": 0.9817, "duels_lost": 3.3094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles_won": 0.2323, "tackles": 0.461, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8209, "won_contest": 0.5904, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 0.6897, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3146, "total_progression": 4.5581, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3138, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.24, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.84 (squad xG sum 0.7867, xG scale 1.0678, xA scale 1.0678, team xA 0.60 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2748, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0353, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1473, "total_shots": 0.4619, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 19.24, "total_pass": 6.3727, "accurate_pass": 5.1763, "duels_won": 1.2821, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1694, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "crosses_total": 0.3196, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.1356, "possession_lost": 3.6849, "dispossessed": 0.9817, "duels_lost": 3.3094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles_won": 0.2323, "tackles": 0.461, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8209, "won_contest": 0.5904, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 0.6897, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3146, "total_progression": 4.5581, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3138, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.24, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9889, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.84, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5598, "team_expected_assists": 0.5978, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0678, "xa_scale": 1.0678, "opponent_lambda": 2.143, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0402, "after": 0.0297 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2748, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0353, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1473, "total_shots": 0.4619, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 19.24, "total_pass": 6.3727, "accurate_pass": 5.1763, "duels_won": 1.2821, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1694, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "crosses_total": 0.3196, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.1356, "possession_lost": 3.6849, "dispossessed": 0.9817, "duels_lost": 3.3094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles_won": 0.2323, "tackles": 0.461, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8209, "won_contest": 0.5904, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 0.6897, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3146, "total_progression": 4.5581, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3138, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.24, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9889, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2897, "fifa_rank": 1881.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2748, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0353, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1473, "total_shots": 0.4619, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 19.24, "total_pass": 6.3727, "accurate_pass": 5.1763, "duels_won": 1.2821, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1694, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "crosses_total": 0.3196, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.1356, "possession_lost": 3.6849, "dispossessed": 0.9817, "duels_lost": 3.3094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles_won": 0.2323, "tackles": 0.461, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8209, "won_contest": 0.5904, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 0.6897, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3146, "total_progression": 4.5581, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3138, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.24, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0291, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9889, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0291, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "scorer_weight": 0.0294, "squad_weight_total": 0.8513, "weight_share": 0.0345, "finishing_factor": 0.9889, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2748, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0353, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0297, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1473, "total_shots": 0.4619, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 19.24, "total_pass": 6.3727, "accurate_pass": 5.1763, "duels_won": 1.2821, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1694, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.007, "crosses_total": 0.3196, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.1356, "possession_lost": 3.6849, "dispossessed": 0.9817, "duels_lost": 3.3094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.37, "tackles_won": 0.2323, "tackles": 0.461, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8209, "won_contest": 0.5904, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 0.6897, "fouls_drawn": 0.2323, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3146, "total_progression": 4.5581, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3138, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.24, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0291, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0124, "finishing_factor": 0.9889, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0124, "assist_rate": 0.0353, "provider_weight": 0.0156, "squad_weight_total": 0.6041, "weight_share": 0.0259, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Oscar Lopez": { "player_id": 1994823, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 180, "market_value": 220000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 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"contribution": -0.0378 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.2426, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.355063 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.23402 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.064695 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.044175 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.037757 } ], "others_margin": -0.00667 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.640480995178223, "model_output": 6.6405, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0625 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0579 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.047, "total": 6.6405, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062534 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05792 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018809 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018302 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012379 } ], "others_margin": -0.04698 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9855, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2046, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "assists": 0.0289, "assist_rate": 0.0289, "expected_goals": 0.0278, "goals": 0.0366, "goal_rate": 0.0366, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.2391, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 12.16, "total_pass": 3.1962, "accurate_pass": 2.1307, "duels_won": 0.5327, "total_long_balls": 1.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0654, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0654, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1308, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0654, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.1962, "possession_lost": 1.0654, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.5327, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0654, "total_progression": 1.9183, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1552 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 220000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9855, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.2 to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "assists": 0.0433, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5981, "total_progression": 2.8774, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2328, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.97, "projection_minutes": 12.16, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.499 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "assists": 0.0433, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5981, "total_progression": 2.8774, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2328, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5981, "total_progression": 2.8774, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2328, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.84 (squad xG sum 0.7867, xG scale 1.0678, xA scale 1.0678, team xA 0.60 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5981, "total_progression": 2.8774, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2328, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1439, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.84, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5598, "team_expected_assists": 0.5978, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0678, "xa_scale": 1.0678, "opponent_lambda": 2.143, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.499 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0417, "after": 0.0222 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0155, "after": 0.0083 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5981, "total_progression": 2.8774, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2328, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1439, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 474, "fifa_rank": 196.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5981, "total_progression": 2.8774, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2328, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0217, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1439, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0217, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "scorer_weight": 0.0254, "squad_weight_total": 0.8513, "weight_share": 0.0298, "finishing_factor": 1.1439, "appearance_weight": 0.499, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0011, quality 0.521)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.2566, "total_shots": 0.6615, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "key_pass": 0.2551, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 15.25, "total_pass": 4.3314, "accurate_pass": 2.6789, "duels_won": 1.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.1556, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0387, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5779, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9998, "crosses_total": 0.3372, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5345, "possession_lost": 3.7258, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 2.8468, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.4687, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6632, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.3762, "fouls_drawn": 0.6013, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0537, "tackles": 0.0537, "clearances": 0.3756, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0466, "xgot": 0.0128, "offsides": 0.1952, "ball_carries": 2.0634, "total_progression": 2.0038, "progressive_carries": 0.1267, "shots_off_target": 0.4049 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9900000, "quality_factor": 0.5213, "boost_factor": 1.0011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.2 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1321, "goals": 0.1316, "goal_rate": 0.1316, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0.3826, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 25.62, "total_pass": 6.4971, "accurate_pass": 4.0183, "duels_won": 2.1475, "total_long_balls": 0.2334, "accurate_long_balls": 0.058, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9997, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8017, "possession_lost": 5.5887, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 4.2702, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.703, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9948, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 0.9019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0805, "tackles": 0.0805, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1952, "ball_carries": 3.0951, "total_progression": 3.0057, "progressive_carries": 0.19, "shots_off_target": 0.6073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.574, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.62 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.62, "projection_minutes": 15.25, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.574 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1321, "goals": 0.1316, "goal_rate": 0.1316, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0.3826, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 25.62, "total_pass": 6.4971, "accurate_pass": 4.0183, "duels_won": 2.1475, "total_long_balls": 0.2334, "accurate_long_balls": 0.058, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9997, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8017, "possession_lost": 5.5887, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 4.2702, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.703, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9948, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 0.9019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0805, "tackles": 0.0805, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1952, "ball_carries": 3.0951, "total_progression": 3.0057, "progressive_carries": 0.19, "shots_off_target": 0.6073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.574, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.62 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1321, "goal_rate": 0.1316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0.3826, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 25.62, "total_pass": 6.4971, "accurate_pass": 4.0183, "duels_won": 2.1475, "total_long_balls": 0.2334, "accurate_long_balls": 0.058, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9997, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8017, "possession_lost": 5.5887, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 4.2702, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.703, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9948, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 0.9019, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0805, "tackles": 0.0805, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1952, "ball_carries": 3.0951, "total_progression": 3.0057, "progressive_carries": 0.19, "shots_off_target": 0.6073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.574, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.62, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.84 (squad xG sum 0.7867, xG scale 1.0678, xA scale 1.0678, team xA 0.60 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goal_rate": 0.1316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "key_pass": 0.3826, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 25.62, "total_pass": 6.4971, "accurate_pass": 4.0183, "duels_won": 2.1475, "total_long_balls": 0.2334, "accurate_long_balls": 0.058, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9997, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8017, "possession_lost": 5.5887, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 4.2702, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.703, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9948, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 0.9019, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0805, "tackles": 0.0805, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0118, "offsides": 0.1952, "ball_carries": 3.0951, "total_progression": 3.0057, "progressive_carries": 0.19, "shots_off_target": 0.6073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.574, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.62, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9973, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.84, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5598, "team_expected_assists": 0.5978, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0678, "xa_scale": 1.0678, "opponent_lambda": 2.143, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.574 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1321, "after": 0.081 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0189, "after": 0.0116 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goal_rate": 0.1316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "key_pass": 0.3826, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 25.62, "total_pass": 6.4971, "accurate_pass": 4.0183, "duels_won": 2.1475, "total_long_balls": 0.2334, "accurate_long_balls": 0.058, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9997, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8017, "possession_lost": 5.5887, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 4.2702, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.703, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9948, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 0.9019, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0805, "tackles": 0.0805, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0118, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goal_rate": 0.1316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "key_pass": 0.3826, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 25.62, "total_pass": 6.4971, "accurate_pass": 4.0183, "duels_won": 2.1475, "total_long_balls": 0.2334, "accurate_long_balls": 0.058, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9997, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8017, "possession_lost": 5.5887, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 4.2702, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.703, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9948, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 0.9019, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0805, "tackles": 0.0805, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0699, "xgot": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goals": 0.1109, "goal_rate": 0.1109, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.8551, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "key_pass": 0.326, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 12.5156, "accurate_pass": 8.029, "duels_won": 3.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1044, "crosses_total": 0.406, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.8441, "possession_lost": 9.7613, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 5.859, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.7357, "won_contest": 0.1738, "ball_recovery": 2.0282, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.2273, "fouls_drawn": 0.6941, "assists": 0.1255, "assist_rate": 0.1255, "interceptions": 0.1255, "tackles_won": 0.1477, "tackles": 0.2732, "clearances": 0.4776, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2082, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 4.5469, "total_progression": 26.2736, "progressive_carries": 1.8674, "shots_off_target": 0.5498 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7700000, "quality_factor": 0.4951, "boost_factor": 0.9986, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goals": 0.149, "goal_rate": 0.149, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assists": 0.1686, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2797, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.7385, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.52, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.3432, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goals": 0.149, "goal_rate": 0.149, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assists": 0.1686, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2797, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.7385, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goal_rate": 0.149, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2797, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.7385, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.84 (squad xG sum 0.7867, xG scale 1.0678, xA scale 1.0678, team xA 0.60 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.149, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1699, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.7385, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.159, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.84, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5598, "team_expected_assists": 0.5978, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0678, "xa_scale": 1.0678, "opponent_lambda": 2.143, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1217, "after": 0.0739 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0407, "after": 0.0247 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.149, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1699, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.7385, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.159, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4905, "fifa_rank": 5809.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.149, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.149, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, 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"league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2897, "combined_rank_score": 1428.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 976.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.3, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1881.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6413, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alberto Risco", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Artur Crăciun", "ranking": 2892 }, { "player_name": "Shokhrukh Isokov", "ranking": 2893 }, { "player_name": "Sardorbek Erkinov", "ranking": 2894 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Moreno", "ranking": 2895 }, { "player_name": "Filippo Fabbri", "ranking": 2896 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Charlis Ortíz", "ranking": 2898 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1322 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0469 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0152, "total": 0.1249, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.537396 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.291006 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.224568 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.13167 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.102171 } ], "others_margin": 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"duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.044764 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.027289 } ], "others_margin": 0.027437 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.64132022857666, "model_output": 6.6413, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0775 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0523 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0434 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0473, "total": 6.6413, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077509 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052343 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043369 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015169 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010839 } ], "others_margin": -0.047193 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2271, "expected_assists": 0.014, "assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.0296, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goals": 0.0329, "goal_rate": 0.0329, "shots_on_target": 0.1235, "total_shots": 0.3828, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 15.9, "total_pass": 5.2664, "accurate_pass": 4.2777, "duels_won": 1.0595, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7815, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7928, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.485, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.485, "crosses_total": 0.2637, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.0289, "possession_lost": 3.0452, "dispossessed": 0.9817, "duels_lost": 2.7349, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2241, "interceptions": 0.3103, "tackles_won": 0.1905, "tackles": 0.381, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6784, "won_contest": 0.4879, "challenges_lost": 0.7646, "fouls": 0.574, "fouls_drawn": 0.1905, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5656, "total_progression": 3.7668, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2593 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 750000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2271, "expected_assists": 0.014, "assists": 0.0292, "assist_rate": 0.0292, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0324, "shots_on_target": 0.1217, "total_shots": 0.3817, "rating": 6.6413, "minutes": 15.9, "total_pass": 5.2664, "accurate_pass": 4.2777, "duels_won": 1.0595, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7815, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0011, quality 0.521)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.2566, "total_shots": 0.6615, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "key_pass": 0.2551, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 15.25, "total_pass": 4.3314, "accurate_pass": 2.6789, "duels_won": 1.4317, "total_long_balls": 0.1556, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0387, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5779, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9998, "crosses_total": 0.3372, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5345, "possession_lost": 3.7258, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 2.8468, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.4687, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6632, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.3762, "fouls_drawn": 0.6013, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0537, "tackles": 0.0537, "clearances": 0.3756, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0466, "xgot": 0.0128, "offsides": 0.1952, "ball_carries": 2.0634, "total_progression": 2.0038, "progressive_carries": 0.1267, "shots_off_target": 0.4049 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9900000, "quality_factor": 0.5213, "boost_factor": 1.0011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.2 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1321, "goals": 0.1316, "goal_rate": 0.1316, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0.3826, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 25.62, "total_pass": 6.4971, "accurate_pass": 4.0183, "duels_won": 2.1475, "total_long_balls": 0.2334, "accurate_long_balls": 0.058, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9997, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8017, "possession_lost": 5.5887, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 4.2702, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.703, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9948, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 0.9019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0805, "tackles": 0.0805, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1952, "ball_carries": 3.0951, "total_progression": 3.0057, "progressive_carries": 0.19, "shots_off_target": 0.6073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.574, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.62 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.62, "projection_minutes": 15.25, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.574 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1321, "goals": 0.1316, "goal_rate": 0.1316, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0.3826, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 25.62, "total_pass": 6.4971, "accurate_pass": 4.0183, "duels_won": 2.1475, "total_long_balls": 0.2334, "accurate_long_balls": 0.058, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9997, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8017, "possession_lost": 5.5887, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 4.2702, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.703, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9948, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 0.9019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0805, "tackles": 0.0805, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1952, "ball_carries": 3.0951, "total_progression": 3.0057, "progressive_carries": 0.19, "shots_off_target": 0.6073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.574, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.62 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1321, "goal_rate": 0.1316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0.3826, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 25.62, "total_pass": 6.4971, "accurate_pass": 4.0183, "duels_won": 2.1475, "total_long_balls": 0.2334, "accurate_long_balls": 0.058, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9997, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8017, "possession_lost": 5.5887, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 4.2702, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.703, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9948, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 0.9019, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0805, "tackles": 0.0805, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1952, "ball_carries": 3.0951, "total_progression": 3.0057, "progressive_carries": 0.19, "shots_off_target": 0.6073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.574, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.62, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.84 (squad xG sum 0.7867, xG scale 1.0678, xA scale 1.0678, team xA 0.60 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goal_rate": 0.1316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "key_pass": 0.3826, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 25.62, "total_pass": 6.4971, "accurate_pass": 4.0183, "duels_won": 2.1475, "total_long_balls": 0.2334, "accurate_long_balls": 0.058, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9997, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8017, "possession_lost": 5.5887, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 4.2702, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.703, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9948, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 0.9019, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0805, "tackles": 0.0805, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0118, "offsides": 0.1952, "ball_carries": 3.0951, "total_progression": 3.0057, "progressive_carries": 0.19, "shots_off_target": 0.6073, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.574, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.62, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9973, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.84, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5598, "team_expected_assists": 0.5978, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0678, "xa_scale": 1.0678, "opponent_lambda": 2.143, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.574 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1321, "after": 0.081 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0189, "after": 0.0116 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goal_rate": 0.1316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "key_pass": 0.3826, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 25.62, "total_pass": 6.4971, "accurate_pass": 4.0183, "duels_won": 2.1475, "total_long_balls": 0.2334, "accurate_long_balls": 0.058, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9997, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8017, "possession_lost": 5.5887, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 4.2702, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.703, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9948, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 0.9019, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0805, "tackles": 0.0805, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0699, "xgot": 0.0118, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goal_rate": 0.1316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "key_pass": 0.3826, "rating": 6.6028, "minutes": 25.62, "total_pass": 6.4971, "accurate_pass": 4.0183, "duels_won": 2.1475, "total_long_balls": 0.2334, "accurate_long_balls": 0.058, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9997, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8017, "possession_lost": 5.5887, "dispossessed": 0.6618, "duels_lost": 4.2702, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "total_contest": 0.703, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9948, "challenges_lost": 0.3043, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 0.9019, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0805, "tackles": 0.0805, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0699, "xgot": 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"total": 0.3265, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.432461 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.097516 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.052462 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.048782 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.036385 } ], "others_margin": -0.08313 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.64101505279541, "model_output": 6.641, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0623 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goals": 0.1109, "goal_rate": 0.1109, "shots_on_target": 0.3052, "total_shots": 0.8551, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "key_pass": 0.326, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 12.5156, "accurate_pass": 8.029, "duels_won": 3.2428, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1044, "crosses_total": 0.406, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.8441, "possession_lost": 9.7613, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 5.859, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.7357, "won_contest": 0.1738, "ball_recovery": 2.0282, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.2273, "fouls_drawn": 0.6941, "assists": 0.1255, "assist_rate": 0.1255, "interceptions": 0.1255, "tackles_won": 0.1477, "tackles": 0.2732, "clearances": 0.4776, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2082, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 4.5469, "total_progression": 26.2736, "progressive_carries": 1.8674, "shots_off_target": 0.5498 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7700000, "quality_factor": 0.4951, "boost_factor": 0.9986, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goals": 0.149, "goal_rate": 0.149, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assists": 0.1686, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2797, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.7385, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.52, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.3432, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goals": 0.149, "goal_rate": 0.149, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assists": 0.1686, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2797, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.7385, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goal_rate": 0.149, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2797, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.7385, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.84 (squad xG sum 0.7867, xG scale 1.0678, xA scale 1.0678, team xA 0.60 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.149, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1699, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.7385, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.159, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.84, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5598, "team_expected_assists": 0.5978, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0678, "xa_scale": 1.0678, "opponent_lambda": 2.143, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1217, "after": 0.0739 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0407, "after": 0.0247 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.149, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1699, "offsides": 0.4209, "ball_carries": 6.1073, "total_progression": 35.2903, "progressive_carries": 2.5083, "shots_off_target": 0.7385, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.52, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.159, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4905, "fifa_rank": 5809.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.149, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.149, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4099, "total_shots": 1.1486, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "key_pass": 0.4379, "rating": 6.641, "minutes": 25.52, "total_pass": 16.8108, "accurate_pass": 10.7844, "duels_won": 4.3557, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.513, "crosses_total": 0.5453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6838, "possession_lost": 13.1112, "dispossessed": 1.3288, "duels_lost": 7.8697, "aerial_lost": 2.7009, "total_contest": 0.9882, "won_contest": 0.2334, "ball_recovery": 2.7242, "challenges_lost": 0.2805, "fouls": 1.6485, "fouls_drawn": 0.9323, "assist_rate": 0.1686, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.1984, "tackles": 0.367, "clearances": 0.6415, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, 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"player_id": 1994823, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 180, "market_value": 220000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.355063 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.23402 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.064695 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.044175 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.037757 } ], "others_margin": -0.00667 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.640480995178223, "model_output": 6.6405, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0625 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0579 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.047, "total": 6.6405, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062534 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05792 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018809 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018302 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012379 } ], "others_margin": -0.04698 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9855, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2046, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "assists": 0.0289, "assist_rate": 0.0289, "expected_goals": 0.0278, "goals": 0.0366, "goal_rate": 0.0366, "shots_on_target": 0.0838, "total_shots": 0.2391, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 12.16, "total_pass": 3.1962, "accurate_pass": 2.1307, "duels_won": 0.5327, "total_long_balls": 1.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0654, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0654, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1308, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0654, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.1962, "possession_lost": 1.0654, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.5327, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0654, "total_progression": 1.9183, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1552 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 220000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9855, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.2 to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "assists": 0.0433, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5981, "total_progression": 2.8774, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2328, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.97, "projection_minutes": 12.16, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.499 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "assists": 0.0433, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5981, "total_progression": 2.8774, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2328, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5981, "total_progression": 2.8774, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2328, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.84 (squad xG sum 0.7867, xG scale 1.0678, xA scale 1.0678, team xA 0.60 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5981, "total_progression": 2.8774, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2328, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1439, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.84, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7867, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5598, "team_expected_assists": 0.5978, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0678, "xa_scale": 1.0678, "opponent_lambda": 2.143, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.499 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0417, "after": 0.0222 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0155, "after": 0.0083 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5981, "total_progression": 2.8774, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2328, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1439, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 474, "fifa_rank": 196.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5981, "total_progression": 2.8774, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2328, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0217, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1439, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0217, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "scorer_weight": 0.0254, "squad_weight_total": 0.8513, "weight_share": 0.0298, "finishing_factor": 1.1439, "appearance_weight": 0.499, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3069, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1257, "total_shots": 0.3587, "rating": 6.6405, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 4.7943, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 0.799, "total_long_balls": 1.5981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5981, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5981, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7943, "possession_lost": 1.5981, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.799, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5981, "total_progression": 2.8774, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2328, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.634, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0217, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0082, "finishing_factor": 1.1439, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0082, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "provider_weight": 0.0104, "squad_weight_total": 0.6041, "weight_share": 0.0172, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.499, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.84, "expected_assists": 0.6, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 288, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 6.72, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Tajon Buchanan", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 13000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.557, "defenders": [ "Djené" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "xg_contribution": 0.1852, "xg_multiplier": 1.1191, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tajon Buchanan (LM) is slightly favored against Djené in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.185 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Pape Gueye", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.574, "xg_contribution": 0.197, "xg_multiplier": 1.226, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.426 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pape Gueye (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €11M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.23 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.197 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Maciá", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 194, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "xg_contribution": 0.0496, "xg_multiplier": 1.1191, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Maciá (CM) is slightly favored against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Santi Comesaña", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Djené" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.491, "xg_contribution": 0.0562, "xg_multiplier": 1.104, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.509 } ], "duel_analysis": "Santi Comesaña (RM) is slightly favored against Djené in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ilias Akhomach", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 11100000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.535, "defenders": [ "Djené", "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.214, "xg_contribution": 0.1125, "xg_multiplier": 1.0206, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.786 }, { "player": "Nemanja Gudelj", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.786 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilias Akhomach (ST) is evenly matched against Djené and Nemanja Gudelj in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.112 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Alberto Moleiro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Djené", "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.338, "xg_contribution": 0.2922, "xg_multiplier": 1.2026, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Djené", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.662 }, { "player": "Nemanja Gudelj", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.662 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alberto Moleiro (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Djené and Nemanja Gudelj in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.20 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.292 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Martín Satriano", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Pau Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.642, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1888, "xg_multiplier": 0.8845, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Pau Navarro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martín Satriano (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Renato Veiga and Pau Navarro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.189 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ramón Terrats", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Sergi Cardona" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "xg_contribution": 0.1394, "xg_multiplier": 0.8897, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergi Cardona", "role": "RB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramón Terrats (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Sergi Cardona in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.139 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Francho Serrano", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Juan Foyth" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.372, "xg_contribution": 0.0524, "xg_multiplier": 0.8711, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Foyth", "role": "LB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628 } ], "duel_analysis": "Francho Serrano (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Juan Foyth in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mario Martín", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.266, "xg_contribution": 0.0774, "xg_multiplier": 0.774, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pape Gueye", "role": "CM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.734 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Martín (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pape Gueye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €39M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Orel Mangala", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "xg_contribution": 0.0347, "xg_multiplier": 0.7619, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pape Gueye", "role": "CM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.742 } ], "duel_analysis": "Orel Mangala (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pape Gueye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €39M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.627, "away_midfield_power": 0.504, "home_creative_power": 0.576, "away_creative_power": 0.399, "home_defensive_power": 0.582, "away_defensive_power": 0.445, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.555, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Tajon Buchanan", "Santi Comesaña", "Pape Gueye", "Carlos Maciá" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Mario Martín", "Ramón Terrats", "Francho Serrano", "Orel Mangala" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Pape Gueye vs Mario Martín", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.021, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.975 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.143, "away_lambda": 0.84, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Tajon Buchanan": { "opponents": [ "Djené", "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pape Gueye": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Maciá": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Santi Comesaña": { "opponents": [ "Djené", "Francho Serrano" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ilias Akhomach": { "opponents": [ "Djené", "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alberto Moleiro": { "opponents": [ "Djené", "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pau Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sergi Cardona": { "opponents": [ "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Juan Foyth": { "opponents": [ "Francho Serrano" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luiz Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Mario Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Djené": { "opponents": [ "Tajon Buchanan", "Santi Comesaña", "Ilias Akhomach", "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mario Martín": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye", "Carlos Maciá" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nemanja Gudelj": { "opponents": [ "Ilias Akhomach", "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Martín Satriano": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Pau Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ramón Terrats": { "opponents": [ "Sergi Cardona", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Francho Serrano": { "opponents": [ "Juan Foyth", "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Orel Mangala": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye", "Carlos Maciá" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Soria": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Kiko Femenía": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Zaid Romero": { "opponents": [ "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Johan Mojica": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Pape Gueye vs Mario Martín will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.89, Away: 0.49. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9644, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1162, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.108, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9998, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9648, "home_midfield_factor": 1.021, "away_midfield_factor": 0.975, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6079, "away_avg_quality": 0.4654, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1424, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.3198, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.2129, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.1777, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3107, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1709, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0994, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8927, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.007 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.021, "result": 1.0282 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 1.059 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.421 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.999, "result": 1.4195 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.4347 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9998, "result": 1.4343 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1162, "result": 1.5505 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.5505, "result": 1.5505, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3107, "factor": 1.1709, "pre": 1.5505, "result": 1.8155 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.8155 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.167, "result": 1.982 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.3259, "result": 1.6044 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.6044, "result": 1.604, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.764 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 1.764, "result": 1.8145, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.0827, "pre": 1.8145, "result": 1.964 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 1.964 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9486, "input_total": 2.511, "result": 1.8631 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.8631, "result": 1.863, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.187, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 2.143 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.4927, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.707 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.975, "result": 0.6893 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.97, "result": 0.6687 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.6687 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8651, "result": 0.5785 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9644, "result": 0.5579 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9648, "result": 0.5382 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.108, "result": 0.6462 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.6462, "result": 0.6462, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3107, "factor": 0.9006, "pre": 0.6462, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.211, "result": 0.861 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.3284, "result": 0.7396 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.7396, "result": 0.74, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 0.718 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 0.718, "result": 0.6975, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9789, "pre": 0.6975, "result": 0.683 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 0.683 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9486, "input_total": 2.511, "result": 0.6479 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 0.6479, "result": 0.65, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.187, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 0.84 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.167, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.211, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Villarreal", "away_squad": "Getafe", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.326, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.328, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3107, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0827, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9789, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.8145, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.6975, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.6044, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7396, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.187, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 2.143, "final_away_lambda": 0.84 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.999, "attack_index": 0.997, "defense_concede_index": 0.997, "form_multiplier": 1.007, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.51, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.51, "team_ppg": 1.19, "opponent_ppg": 1.08 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8651, "attack_index": 0.696, "defense_concede_index": 0.997, "form_multiplier": 0.993, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.05, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.51, "team_ppg": 1.08, "opponent_ppg": 1.19 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Villarreal vs Getafe. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 5-4-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.604, Away 0.740). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 2.143, Away 0.840 (most likely score 2-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Villarreal", "away_squad": "Getafe", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.326, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.328, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 2.143, "away_lambda": 0.84, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.604, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.74 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.187, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:37:49Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }